Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term cotton drivers are limited, but the medium - and long - term cotton fundamentals remain strong. After a significant recent price correction, cotton is expected to trade in a range in the short term. The short - term trend of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be range - bound. For cotton trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options. The cotton yarn market will continue to be weak in the short term, and the overall situation of the cotton fabric market has not changed significantly [6][8][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 15300 with a price increase of 145, and the CY05 contract closed at 20620 with a price increase of 105 [2] - **Spot Market**: The prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn spot varieties are provided, such as the CCIndex3128B cotton price at 15839 yuan/ton with a decrease of 17, and the CY IndexC32S cotton yarn price at 21320 with no change [2] - **Price Spreads**: Different price spreads, including cotton inter - month spreads, cotton yarn inter - month spreads, cross - variety spreads, and internal - external spreads, are given. For instance, the 1 - 5 month cotton spread is 570 with a decrease of 50, and the internal - external cotton spread (1% tariff) is 2827 with an increase of 63 [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **West African Cotton**: In the 2025/26 season, the cotton planting area in West Africa is expected to be about 2.2 million hectares (about 33 million mu), a 6% year - on - year decrease. Mali's seed cotton production will drop by over one - third to about 435,000 tons, while Benin's total production is expected to increase by 2% to about 650,000 tons. The total production of the eight West African countries is expected to be 905,000 tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease [4] - **Pakistani Textiles**: In December 2025, Pakistan's textile exports were $1.11 billion, a 6% month - on - month and 8% year - on - year decrease. In the first six months of the 2025/26 fiscal year, the cumulative total textile exports were $7.6 billion, a 1% year - on - year slight increase [5] - **Xinjiang Cotton Transportation**: On January 22, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1665 yuan/ton·km, a 0.77% month - on - month decrease. It is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [5] Trading Logic and Strategies - **Logic**: The current cotton sales progress is fast, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. Short - term cotton drivers are limited, and the medium - and long - term fundamentals are strong. After a significant price correction, short - term range - bound trading is expected [6] - **Strategies**: For single - side trading, the short - term trends of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to be range - bound. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [8][9][10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - **Cotton Yarn Market**: The domestic cotton yarn market has been weak, with continuous price discounts. The trading volume is expected to decrease further. The prices of different cotton yarn products in various regions are provided [10] - **Cotton Fabric Market**: The overall situation of the cotton fabric market has not changed significantly, with slightly better sales of thinner plain - weave fabrics. Weaving mills' orders have increased slightly, but the delivery time is tight. They are cautious about the post - holiday market [10] Third Part: Options - **Option Data**: The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities, and other relevant data of several cotton option contracts on January 19, 2026 are presented. For example, the CF605C14600.CZC option closed at 334 with a 16.9% decrease, and its implied volatility was 13.3% [12] - **Volatility Analysis**: The 60 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts are also provided [12] - **Option Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended for options [14] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - Multiple figures are presented, including the internal - external cotton price difference under 1% tariff, cotton basis for different months, the price difference between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts, and the inter - month price difference of cotton futures contracts [16][19][23][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment has declined recently, but there are signs of stabilization after the decline in the futures market. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - news on the market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is priced at 3270 yuan, Beijing Jingye at 3130 yuan, Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3280 yuan (up 10 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3170 yuan [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Steel futures are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio on rallies and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to threaded steel spread [6]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - **Threaded Steel**: This week, the small - sample production of threaded steel was 199.55 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.25 tons. The estimated apparent demand was 185.52 tons (a 6% year - on - year decrease in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 4.82 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 6.32 tons, the social inventory increased by 7.71 tons, and the total inventory increased by 14.03 tons [8]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: This week, the production of hot - rolled coil was 305.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.95 tons. The estimated apparent demand was 309.96 tons (a 2.39% year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 4.20 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 0.11 tons, the social inventory decreased by 4.66 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 4.55 tons [9]. Relevant Attachments The report provides a series of charts, including those related to the basis of different contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil, price spreads between different contracts, the spread between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel, and various profit - related charts. The data sources for these charts are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [12][16][18].

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The impact of Venezuelan oil prices on the market has been gradually digested, the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has eased, and the increase in raw material discounts has not been fully traded. The asphalt is in a high - level shock. With the Iranian situation fluctuating and geopolitical risks expanding, unilateral risks should be noted. In the off - season at the beginning of the year, the weekly supply and demand decreased simultaneously, and the industrial chain inventory remained low. The spot price was relatively firm, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] Summary by Directory Part 1: Relevant Data 1. Futures Prices and Positions - BU2603 (main contract) price rose from 3157 to 3242, an increase of 85 or 2.69%. BU2604 rose from 3170 to 3246, an increase of 76 or 2.40%. BU2605 rose from 3093 to 3247, an increase of 154 or 4.98%. SC2603 rose from 440.8 to 446.4, an increase of 5.6 or 1.27%. Brent first - line rose from 63.65 to 64.46, an increase of 0.8 or 1.27% [2] - The main contract's position increased from 18.7 million lots to 20.3 million lots, an increase of 1.6 million lots or 8.49%. The main contract's trading volume increased from 14.9 million lots to 30.0 million lots, an increase of 15.1 million lots or 101.87%. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 45,820 tons [2] 2. Basis and Calendar Spread - BU04 - 05 decreased from 77 to - 1, a decrease of 78 or 101.30%. BU04 - 03 increased from - 13 to - 4, an increase of 9 or - 130.77%. The Shandong - main contract basis decreased from 30 to - 36, a decrease of 66 or 220.00%. The East China - main contract basis decreased from - 20 to - 96, a decrease of 76 or 580.00%. The South China - main contract basis decreased from 10 to - 66, a decrease of 76 or 760.00% [2] 3. Industrial Chain Spot Prices - The Shandong market price rose from 3070 to 3080, an increase of 10 or 0.33%. The East China and South China market prices remained unchanged at 3150 and 3180 respectively. Shandong gasoline rose from 6976 to 6983, an increase of 7 or 0.10%. Shandong diesel rose from 5662 to 5676, an increase of 14 or 0.25%. Shandong petroleum coke remained unchanged at 2890. The diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 13.2, and the exchange - rate mid - price rose slightly by 0.01% [2] 4. Spread and Profit - The asphalt refinery profit decreased from 7.21 to - 20.72, a decrease of 27.94 or 387.22%. The refined oil comprehensive profit decreased from 26.22 to - 3.90, a decrease of 30.12 or 114.89%. The BU - SC crack spread increased from - 412.53 to - 386.15, an increase of 26.38 or 6.39%. The gasoline spot - Brent spread decreased from 720.16 to 683.58, a decrease of 36.58 or 5.08%. The diesel spot - Brent spread decreased from 247.33 to 216.94, a decrease of 30.39 or 12.29% [2] Part 2: Market Analysis 1. Market Overview - On January 22, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3243 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous day. The higher asphalt futures boosted the market sentiment. Traders in Shandong raised their selling prices. In the South, the main refineries had stable shipments and lower inventory levels, supporting the stable prices of the main asphalt products. Some social warehouses in South China and East China slightly raised their selling prices [5] - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt rose 10 to 3130 - 3220 yuan/ton. The strong futures price drove up the spot price, but the weak terminal demand limited the price increase [5] - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3210 - 3210 yuan/ton. The main refineries' shipments by ship were good, and the inventory was at a medium - low level. However, the cold weather affected the demand, and the social warehouse shipments were average. The Zhenjiang warehouse price was slightly raised by 20 to about 3170 yuan/ton [5] - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3110 - 3150 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in the futures price boosted the market sentiment, but most downstream users were cautious, and the high - price resource transactions were average. The local main refineries will keep low production and low inventory, so the mainstream transaction price will remain stable in the short term [6] 2. Market Outlook - The discount of Venezuelan oil raw materials has risen in the market quotation but there has been no real transaction. The impact of Venezuelan oil prices on the market has been gradually digested, and the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has eased. The asphalt is in a high - level shock. With the Iranian situation fluctuating and geopolitical risks expanding, unilateral risks should be noted. In the off - season at the beginning of the year, the weekly supply and demand decreased simultaneously, and the industrial chain inventory remained low. The spot price was relatively firm, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] Part 3: Relevant Attachments - The report provides several figures including BU main contract closing price, BU main contract position, East China and Shandong asphalt market prices, Shandong refinery gasoline and diesel prices, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [9]

黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 22 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 收盘价 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 5610 | | 54 | 0 | 108864 | -21998 | 244000 | -11689 | | SM主力合约 5814 | | 28 | -56 | 141601 | 6241 | 356074 | 23782 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5370 | 20 | -80 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | 0 | -70 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The US's attitude towards Iran's strikes is inconsistent. In the short term, the export and production of crude oil and fuel oil are expected to be continuously disrupted by US strategies, leading to increased unilateral fluctuations in fuel oil. The fundamental outlook for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weakly stable in the first quarter. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in the near term is increasing month - on - month, with supply in major regions expected to recover [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs First Part: Related Data - On January 22, 2026, the FU main contract was 2592, up 50 from the previous day; the LU main contract was 3135, up 45 from the previous day. The FU main contract's open interest was 18.5 million lots, down 0.7 million lots from the previous day, and the LU main contract's open interest was 5.7 million lots, down 0.7 million lots from the previous day. The FU warehouse receipts were 66550 tons, down 8000 tons from the previous day, and the LU warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 13000 tons [3]. - The FU5 - 9 spread was 37, up 8 from the previous day; the LU3 - 4 spread was - 3, down 9 from the previous day; the LU - FU main contract spread was 543, down 5 from the previous day; the FU05 - foreign market 04 spread was 10.6, down 0.8 from the previous day; the LU03 - foreign market 02 spread was 14.8, up 0.7 from the previous day [3]. Second Part: Market Research and Judgment Market Overview - In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Feb/Mar monthly spread remained at 7.75 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Feb/Mar monthly spread rose 0.50 to 1.00 US dollars/ton [5]. Important News - Russia reported that Ukrainian drones attacked a Black Sea port on Wednesday night, causing four fuel terminals to catch fire and two people to die [6]. Market Judgment - The US's inconsistent attitude towards Iran's strikes will disrupt short - term crude oil and fuel oil exports and production. High - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are expected to be weakly stable in Q1. Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil exports in the week of January 15 were about 650,000 tons, up from the previous two weeks. Mexico's high - sulfur exports are rising. Iran's fuel oil exports have been low since 2025. In terms of demand, the economic efficiency of high - sulfur feedstock is average, weakening the support. Low - sulfur supply is increasing, with Al - Zour refinery's units back, Dangote refinery's exports stable at a high level, and new supplies from South Sudan [7]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the Singapore high - sulfur crack spread, low - sulfur crack spread, gasoline crack spread, 10ppm diesel crack spread, high - low sulfur spread, and LSFO - GO, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [10][14][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. corn report was bearish, but the global corn supply pressure has weakened, and U.S. corn has stabilized and rebounded. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2,132 yuan. The domestic corn spot price is relatively stable in the short - term, and the starch spot price is also relatively strong, but the enterprise is still in a loss state. The 03 corn has room to fall, and the 03 starch is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [3][5][6] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2,248 with an increase of 4 (0.18%), C2605 at 2,286 with an increase of 9 (0.39%), C2509 at 2,300 with an increase of 4 (0.17%). For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2,575 with a decrease of 5 (-0.19%), CS2605 at 2,606 with an increase of 21 (0.81%), CS2509 at 2,628 with an increase of 14 (0.53%). The trading volume and open interest of some contracts also had significant changes [1] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions had different changes, with the price in Qinggang increasing by 10 to 2,160 yuan, and the price in Jinzhou Port increasing by 5 to 2,340 yuan. Starch spot prices remained stable. The basis of corn and starch in different regions also had corresponding values [1] - **Spread**: In corn inter - period spreads, C01 - C05 was - 38 with a decrease of 5, C05 - C09 was - 14 with an increase of 5. In starch inter - period spreads, CS01 - CS05 was - 31 with a decrease of 26, CS05 - CS09 was - 22 with an increase of 7. In cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 was 328 with an increase of 10, CS01 - C01 was 327 with a decrease of 9 [1] Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The U.S. corn report was bearish, but the global corn supply pressure decreased, and U.S. corn rebounded. The import profit of foreign corn increased. The northern port closing price was strong, and the spot price in the Northeast and North China was stable. The spread between Northeast and North China corn decreased. The wheat - corn spread was large, and corn had cost - effectiveness. The domestic breeding demand was stable, and the downstream feed enterprise inventory increased. The short - term corn spot price was relatively stable [3][5] - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong was stable. The starch inventory decreased this week, with the factory inventory at 1.069 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from last week (a monthly decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 10.4%). The starch price was mainly affected by corn price and downstream inventory preparation. The by - product price was strong, and the spot spread between corn and starch was at a low level. The starch spot price was strong, and the enterprise was still in a loss state. The 03 starch was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [6] Part 3: Corn Options - **Option Strategy**: A short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operation was recommended [10] Part 4: Related Attachments - The attachments included figures such as the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread, which showed the price trends and spreads of different periods and varieties [14][15][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of peanuts is increasing, but the downstream demand remains weak. The peanut price is expected to be relatively stable in the short - term. The peanut oil spot price is stable, and the peanut meal price has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mill crushing is good. The peanut futures continue to rebound, and the market trades on the ample supply of oil - type peanuts and low import prices, but the warehouse receipt cost is still relatively high. The 05 peanut contract is in a bottom - oscillating state [3][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Data - **Futures盘面**: PK604 closed at 7910, up 14 (0.18%), with a trading volume of 32,210 (up 126.80%) and an open interest of 26,548 (down 1.06%); PK610 closed at 8224, down 8 (-0.10%), with a trading volume of 67 (down 40.18%) and an open interest of 2,744 (up 0.07%); PK601 had no valid data [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7400, 8000, 8000 respectively, with no change. The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3250, and Rizhao soybean meal was 3090 (up 10). The price of peanut oil was 14320, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8480 (up 70). The basis of Henan Nanyang was - 510, and that of Shandong Jining and Linyi was 90. The price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was - 4, and that between peanut oil and soybean oil was 5840. The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8600 with no change [1] - **Price Difference**: The PK04 - PK10 spread was - 314, up 22, while PK01 - PK04 and PK10 - PK01 had no valid data [1] 2. Second Part: Market Analysis - The peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China are strong. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin (Northeast) and Changtu, Liaoning is 4.65 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin compared to yesterday. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan is 3.65 - 3.8 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. The price in Junan, Shandong is 3.5 yuan/jin, remaining stable. The import prices of Sudanese refined peanuts, Brazilian new peanuts, and Indian specification peanuts are 8600 yuan/ton, 9200 yuan/ton, and 8000 yuan/ton respectively, remaining stable. The peanut spot price is expected to be relatively stable in the short - term. The purchase price of some peanut oil mills is stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 6900 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills is 7800 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil are stable. The domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil is quoted at 14300 yuan/ton, and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is quoted at 16500 yuan/ton. The Rizhao soybean meal spot price is up 10 yuan/ton to 3090 yuan/ton. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the peanut meal is expected to be strong in the short - term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3100 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Third Part: Trading Strategy - **Single - side trading**: The 05 peanut contract is in a bottom - oscillating state. Investors can go long on the 05 peanut contract at low prices with a light position [7] - **Spread trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] - **Options trading**: Sell the pk603 - P - 8200 option at high prices [9] 4. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures: Shandong peanut spot price, peanut oil mill crushing profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 4 - 10 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread, with data from 2021 - 2026 [11][19]

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【背景介绍】 | 2 | | | 【分析结论】 | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 行情分析 3 | | | 一、苹果冷库库存量较低，优果率偏低 | 3 | | | 二、春节前走货预期增加，苹果去库速度尚可 | | 4 | | 三、苹果仓单成本较高 | 5 | | | 四、总结 | | 5 | | 免责声明 | | 7 | 农产品板块研发报告 苹果专题 2026 年 1 月 22 日 去库速度尚可 苹果走势预期偏强 第一部分 前言概要 【背景介绍】 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：刘倩楠 电 话：010-68569781 邮 箱： liuqiannan_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业资格证号：F3013727 投资咨询资格证号：Z0014425 作者承诺 本人具有中国期货业协会授予的 期货从业资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉 的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报 告。作者保证报告所采用的数据均来 自合规渠道，分析逻辑均基于本人的 职业理解，通过合理判断得出结论， 本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent regulatory cooling of the equity and some commodity markets, along with the unchanged loose monetary policy and the central bank's clear indication of room for increasing aggregate policies this year, have led to a further repair of bond market sentiment. However, the probability of a short - term policy rate cut is low, and the capital side will face more disturbances next week. The long - end is constrained by supply concerns and fundamental expectations, and the downward momentum of yields is insufficient. Therefore, it is recommended that investors wait and see on the single - side and be cautious about chasing up. In terms of arbitrage, the long - end slope has become steeper this week, but at the current term spread level, it is not advisable to over - participate. The spread between new and old 30Y bonds is relatively high, so investors may moderately pay attention to shorting the basis of 30Y active bonds [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Comprehensive Analysis** - Last December's foreign trade data showed strong resilience, and the overall financial data was also better than expected. In the financial data structure, the corporate sector performed particularly well, indicating that the corporate sector's expectations may have turned positive first. In contrast, due to weak income expectations and unstable housing prices, the credit expansion of the household sector continued to slow down, and the improvement of the deposit term - deposit trend was also limited [6]. - At the press conference on Thursday, incremental information was released. On the one hand, the structural interest rate cut was implemented, and the central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, increased the quotas of some structural monetary policy tools, and expanded the scope of support. On the other hand, central bank officials clearly stated that there is still room for "reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" this year. The loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged, and there is still room for increasing aggregate policies, which is friendly to the bond market. However, the implementation of structural "broad credit" reduces the probability of increasing aggregate easing in the short term. The central bank also said it would "guide the overnight interest rate to run around the policy rate," which means the policy rate still restricts the downward movement of short - term bond yields [7]. - **Strategy Recommendations** - **Single - side**: Wait and see [9] - **Arbitrage**: Moderately pay attention to shorting the basis of 30Y active bonds [9] Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Social Financing Growth Continues to Recover** - In December, the new RMB loans were 910 billion yuan, 80 billion yuan less than the same period last year; the loan balance increased by 6.4% year - on - year, unchanged from the previous month. Structurally, the household sector continued to "shrink its balance sheet," with loans decreasing by 91.6 billion yuan, 441.6 billion yuan less than the same period last year; enterprises and institutions had new loans of 1.07 trillion yuan, 580 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Among them, medium - and long - term loans related to investment increased by 330 billion yuan, 290 billion yuan more than the same period last year, ending five consecutive months of year - on - year decrease [10][13]. - In December, the social financing scale was 2.2075 trillion yuan, 646.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year; the stock of social financing increased by 8.3% year - on - year, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. Structurally, the government bond financing scale was only 683.3 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 1.0733 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year, which was the main reason for the year - on - year decrease in social financing. The combined financing of corporate bonds, non - financial enterprise stocks, and non - standard financing was 159.5 billion yuan, 246.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year [13]. - **Divergence in M2 and M1 Growth Rates** - In December, M2 increased by 0.5 percentage points year - on - year to 8.5%. In terms of the deposit structure, the seasonal increase in year - end fiscal expenditure led to a significant decrease in fiscal deposits and their conversion into household and corporate deposits, which was one of the important supports for M2. However, the unexpected increase in M2 growth is likely related to the increase in the settlement of foreign exchange by the private sector at the end of the year after the reversal of exchange - rate expectations [18]. - In contrast to the rise in M2 growth, M1 increased by 3.8% year - on - year in December, a 1.1 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. The relatively high base in the same period last year was one of the reasons for the decline in M1 growth. Considering the credit data structure, the decrease in the degree of currency activation may reflect that there are still blockages in the domestic currency circulation in the household sector [18]. - **Foreign Trade Performance Exceeds Expectations** - According to the customs statistics in US dollars, in December last year, China's goods exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from the previous month; imports increased by 5.7%, a 3.8 - percentage - point increase; the trade surplus rose to 114.14 billion US dollars. Foreign trade continued to show resilience and performed better than expected [25]. - **Regulatory Authorities Guide the Cooling of the Equity Market** - Compared with the relatively high price - earnings ratio, the risk premium shows that compared with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield, the current valuation of the Wind All - A Index is roughly at a neutral level since 2017 and is not overvalued. With the lack of profit elasticity at the numerator end, the low market risk - free rate at the denominator end is an important support for the equity market valuation [27]. - This week, the increase in the margin ratio for margin trading in the equity market and the "anti - monopoly" measures for some commodities last week are specific measures to cool down the risk - asset market at the policy level, which is relatively favorable for the bond market. However, from the perspectives of A - share trading volume, leveraged funds, and rolling price - earnings ratio, the expectations in the equity market are still positive and have not fundamentally changed [32]. - **The Capital Side Tightens First and Then Eases** - This week, the market capital price first rose and then fell. After the central bank's continuous large - scale net injection of short - term liquidity, the capital side became loose again starting from Thursday. As of the close on Friday, DR001 and DR007 were at 1.3199% and 1.4430% respectively. The overnight and 7 - day non - bank capital spreads were 5.35bp and 7.07bp respectively. In terms of long - term funds, the issuance rate of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks was generally in the range of 1.63 - 1.65% this week [39]. - Next week, the market capital side will face dual disturbances. First, next Wednesday and Thursday are the peak periods for tax payments, and January is a large tax - paying month, so the potential capital gap is relatively large. Second, local bond issuance will reach a small peak again, and the announced data shows that the net financing scale for the week is about 217.219 billion yuan [39]. - **Change in the Spread between New and Old Ultra - long - term Bonds** - Recently, the spread between the CTD bond of the TL main contract and the active bond of the same term (including tax) has generally fluctuated between 6 - 8bp. It tended to decline in the first four trading days of this week but widened again to above 7bp on Friday. After excluding the impact of value - added tax, the current spread between new and old ultra - long - term bonds is relatively high, which may be related to the relatively large subsequent supply of ultra - long - term government bonds [44]. - **Valuation of the Treasury Bond Futures Market** - Calculated based on the ChinaBond valuation and futures settlement price, as of the close on Friday, the IRRs of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 1.4206%, 1.5414%, 1.3811%, and 1.9495% respectively. Static analysis shows that the IRR of the TL main contract is significantly high, which may be related to the divergence of its CTD bond's trend from the active bond of the same term on Friday. The valuations of other - term main contracts are relatively reasonable [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and offers trading strategies for each sector, taking into account factors such as geopolitical events, seasonal patterns, and policy changes. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Core Viewpoint**: The stock index shows differentiation and resilience. Although the ETF trading volume of broad - based indexes is abnormal, it does not affect market activity. The CSI 500 index is relatively strong, and the stock index is expected to fluctuate. [20][21] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term grid operation for single - side trading; IM\IC long 2606 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; double - selling strategy for options. [22] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply - side pressure is high, and the market rebounds slightly. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading, expand the MRM spread in arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options. [24][25] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short term but with limited downward space. It is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [28][29] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The US biofuel policy is expected to boost the market. Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to use high - selling and low - buying interval operations for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [31][32] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and the domestic corn spot is stable in the short term but under pressure in the long term. For single - side trading, a bullish view on the US 03 corn after stabilization and short - selling on the domestic 03 corn at high prices; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch and conduct a 35 - starch reverse spread. [33][34][35] - **Hogs**: Supply pressure increases, and the spot price continues to decline. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options. [36][37][38] - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at the bottom. For single - side trading, go long on the 05 contract at low prices; for options, sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option. [39][40] - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot price rises, but the upward space of the 03 contract is limited. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month far - month contract for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [43][44][45] - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the price is firm. For single - side trading, go long on the May contract at low prices and short - sell the October contract at high prices; for arbitrage, go long on the May contract and short - sell the October contract. [47][48][49] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate in the range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [51][52] Black Metals - **Steel**: Demand is marginally weakening, and steel prices continue to oscillate. For single - side trading, the steel price stabilizes in the short term and oscillates at the bottom; for arbitrage, short - sell the coil - coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold the short - selling of the coil - screw spread. [54][55] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are lackluster, and the market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and partially take profit on the previous strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options for options. [56][57] - **Iron Ore**: Market expectations are fluctuating, and ore prices are running weakly. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [59][60][61] - **Ferroalloys**: After adjustment, the bottom support is strong. For single - side trading, consider ferroalloys as long - position options when the price is low; for options, sell put options at high prices. [62][63] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Due to the turning of risk events, gold and silver prices retreat. For single - side trading, short - term investors in Shanghai gold can take profit at high prices, and long - term investors can hold with the 5 - day moving average as support; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options for Shanghai gold and take profit at high prices. [65][66][67] - **Platinum and Palladium**: TACO pushes up the US dollar index, and precious metal prices are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options. [68][69] - **Copper**: The upward momentum weakens, and copper prices consolidate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options. [71][72][73] - **Alumina**: It mainly oscillates weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading activity after the price continues to fall. [77] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and aluminum prices oscillate and stabilize. For single - side trading, it is expected to be strong in the medium term; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [79][80] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. For single - side trading, it oscillates and stabilizes; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [81] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to changes in domestic social inventories. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options. [83][84][85] - **Lead**: Pay attention to capital sentiment. For single - side trading, go long lightly at low prices near the 17000 - 17200 support level; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [88][89] - **Nickel**: Optimistic sentiment remains, and nickel prices consolidate at a high level. For single - side trading, take a long - position view with a low - buying strategy; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [92] - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are tight, and prices are firm. For single - side trading, take a long - position view with a low - buying strategy; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage. [95][96] - **Industrial Silicon**: Production - cut news is spreading, but coking coal drags down the market. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. [96][97] - **Polysilicon**: Spot trading is at a standstill. Pay attention to the meeting this week. It is recommended to wait and see. [98][99] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is running at a high level. Be cautious in operation. For single - side trading, buy at low prices; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [101][102][104] - **Tin**: Pay attention to capital conditions. For single - side trading, go long after the callback stabilizes; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options. [106][107][108] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: Spot freight rates continue to decline, and the geopolitical situation has escalated. For single - side trading, wait and see due to many short - term disturbances; for arbitrage, hold the 6 - 10 positive spread. [109][110] Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Cold snaps in Europe and the US drive up oil prices. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [112] - **Asphalt**: Demand is declining, and geopolitics is still the main driver. For single - side trading, the main 03 contract oscillates strongly; for arbitrage, pay attention to the BU4 - 6 positive spread. [114][115][116] - **Fuel Oil**: The cost oscillates. Pay attention to the supply rhythm of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils. For single - side trading, it oscillates strongly, and beware of geopolitical risks; for arbitrage, pay attention to the FU59 positive spread. [117][118] - **LPG**: Propane still has support. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [119][120] - **Natural Gas**: TTF/JKM is strong in the short term, and HH is in a short - squeeze situation. For single - side trading, hold the short positions in the third - quarter TTF or JKM contracts and consider adding positions for aggressive investors; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options of TTF or JKM. [122][123][125] - **PX&PTA**: Polyester production cuts are increasing. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [127][128] - **BZ&EB**: The transaction of South Korean pure benzene to the US Gulf is good, and the supply of styrene decreases due to accidental plant shutdowns. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. For options, sell put options. [128][129][130] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is obvious, and the price is falling weakly. For single - side trading, it is expected to oscillate weakly; for options, sell call options. [131][133] - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is sufficient, and terminal demand is weakening. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [134][135] - **Bottle Chips**: Maintenance accelerates in late January. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [136][138] - **Propylene**: Supply pressure is relieved. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [140][141][142] - **Plastic PP**: Hold long positions. For single - side trading, hold long positions in the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts. [144][145] - **Caustic Soda**: The price is weakening. It is expected to have a weak trend. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [146][147][148] - **PVC**: It oscillates weakly. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. [149][150] - **Soda Ash**: The futures price is falling. It is recommended to short - sell at an appropriate time. It is expected to have a weak trend. [151][152][153] - **Glass**: The futures price is falling. It is recommended to short - sell at an appropriate time before the Spring Festival. [155][156] - **Methanol**: Geopolitical tensions ease, and it oscillates narrowly. For single - side trading, short - sell in the short term; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 59 positive spread; for options, sell put options on the callback. [161][162] - **Urea**: It oscillates. It is recommended to operate cautiously. [163][164] - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates weakly. Hold short positions. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [166][167][169] - **Logs**: The spot price is stable and slightly strong. For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy a small amount near the low point of last month; for arbitrage, close the LG03 - 05 reverse spread and switch to a positive spread. [170][171] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Inventory is high, and the rebound of cultural paper is weak. For options, sell the OP2602 - C - 4200 option. [173][174] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The import volume of Indian - standard rubber decreases significantly. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options. [175][177] - **Butadiene Rubber**: Domestic automobile inventory accumulates both monthly and yearly. For single - side trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, hold the BR2605 - RU2605 spread with a stop - loss at - 4000. [179][180]