1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Container shipping: The peak of the shipping season may be postponed, and the spot freight rate center may continue to rise. The trading strategy suggests a sideways trend for the single - side operation, with a focus on buying EC2512 at low prices, and a rolling operation for the 10 - 12 spread arbitrage [4][5][6]. - Dry bulk shipping: The large - vessel market is expected to be weak in the short term, while the medium - vessel market is expected to have a slightly stronger and fluctuating freight rate [17]. - Oil shipping: The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium, and the impact of market sentiment changes on the freight rate needs to be monitored [21]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis - On July 1, the EC2508 contract closed at 1904.9 points, up 8.15%. The final delivery settlement price of the EC2506 contract was 1919.34 points. The SCFI European line reported $2030/TEU on June 27, up 10.6% week - on - week [2][4]. - The spot freight rate center has gradually recovered, with different quotes from major shipping companies. Some shipping companies have raised their freight rates for the second half of July [5]. - In terms of demand, July is the peak shipping season, and the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm needs to be noted. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from July to September has increased compared to the previous schedule, and the market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Sideways. Consider a long - position strategy for EC2512 at low prices [6]. - Arbitrage: Rolling operation for the 10 - 12 spread arbitrage [8]. Industry News - The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Canada cancelled the digital service tax, and the EU and the US are conducting trade negotiations on tariffs [9]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis - The Baltic Dry Index dropped to 1489 points on Monday, the lowest since June 4. The Capesize ship freight index fell to 2111 points, the lowest since May 29, while the Panamax ship freight index rose to 1500 points, the highest since March 31 [13]. - As of June 30, the freight rate of the Capesize ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao decreased by 4.54% week - on - week, while that from Western Australia to Qingdao increased by 3.52% week - on - week. As of June 27, the freight rates of some coal and grain routes of Panamax ships had different changes [13][14]. - From June 23 to June 29, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 149.1 million tons week - on - week. The expected soybean export volume in Brazil in June is 1437 million tons [15][16]. Industry News - From June 23 to June 29, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 18.8 million tons. Guinea's bauxite exports in the first quarter increased by 39% year - on - year [18]. Oil Shipping Market Analysis - On June 30, the BDTI was 984, down 1.80% week - on - week and 12.22% year - on - year; the BCTI was 586, down 4.40% week - on - week and 28.54% year - on - year. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium [21]. Industry News - The average price of crude oil in this cycle first rose and then fell, and the prices of gasoline and diesel may continue to decline. It is expected that oil prices will rise in the third quarter and be under pressure in the fourth quarter. As of June 30, the crude oil arrival volume of Shandong independent refineries decreased by 17.54% week - on - week [22][23][24].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/7/1 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 15.29 | 15.09 | 0.20 | 山 西 | 15.05 | 14.84 | 0.21 | | 湖北（0） | 14.81 | 14.66 | 0.15 | 辽 宁 | 14.77 | 14.69 | 0.08 | | 安徽（300） | 15.29 | 15.15 | 0.14 | 吉 林 | 14.72 | 14.55 | 0.17 | | 湖南（100） | 15.09 | 14.79 | 0.30 | 黑龙江 | 14.55 | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 2 to June 28, 2025, SHFE lead weighted rose 2.39%, and LME lead rose 4.61%. In the first half of the year, apart from macro - impacts, lead prices were mainly affected by secondary lead supply. Due to high prices of lead - containing scrap and low lead prices, secondary lead smelting enterprises frequently cut production due to losses [4]. - In the second half of the year, July - August is the traditional peak season for lead - acid battery consumption in China. With the "trade - in" policy, domestic lead consumption is expected to grow steadily. However, the shortage of lead - containing scrap supply may cause secondary lead smelting enterprises to have periodic production cuts, which may interfere with domestic lead ingot supply. It is expected that the center of lead prices will move up, and there may be periodic gaps in domestic secondary lead supply, leading to price fluctuations [5][117]. Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - From January 2 to June 28, 2025, SHFE lead weighted rose 2.39%, and LME lead rose 4.61%. The lead price trend was affected by factors such as smelting profit, downstream replenishment, "tariff policy", and secondary lead smelting cost [4]. 1.2 Market Outlook - In the second half of the year, domestic lead consumption is expected to grow steadily during the peak season with policy support. But the shortage of lead - containing scrap may cause secondary lead production cuts and affect lead supply and prices [5]. 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The center of lead prices moves up with wide - range fluctuations. Try high - selling and low - buying operations based on secondary lead supply and consumption peak seasons [6][118]. - Options: Pay attention to the boost of consumption on lead prices and secondary lead production cuts, and try selling put options or buying call options at appropriate times [6][118]. 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Raw Material End - **Global Lead Concentrate Supply**: In January - April 2025, global lead ore production was 1.4324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Overseas production was 0.8454 million tons, up 3.12% year - on - year, and China's production was 0.587 million tons, also up 3.12% year - on - year [19]. - **Domestic Lead Ore Supply**: From January to May, domestic lead concentrate production was 0.6339 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.61%. With rising lead prices, by - product benefits, and new mine production, domestic lead concentrate supply improved. In June, northern mines resumed production, and it is expected that production will increase and processing fees may rise slightly in the second half of the year. From January to May, lead concentrate imports were 0.5525 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.93%. The import window may remain open in the second half of the year [21][24]. - **Lead - containing Scrap**: In the first half of the year, lead - containing scrap was difficult to recycle, and prices rose. Although smelters tried to lower purchase prices, prices rebounded due to shortages. In the second half of the year, the "trade - in" policy may increase recycling, but supply may still be short, and prices may remain high. Prices may drop periodically with secondary lead production cuts [32]. 2.2 Smelting End - **Global Refined Lead Balance**: From January to April 2025, cumulative global refined lead production was 4.3916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.08%; cumulative consumption was 4.3697 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.66%, with a cumulative surplus of 21,900 tons [35]. - **Domestic Primary Lead Supply**: From January to May, domestic electrolytic lead production was 1.5651 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.42%. After the lead price recovered and processing fees rebounded, smelters turned profitable. With new plants in production and less maintenance in the second half of the year, production may continue to rise if profitability is maintained [41]. - **Domestic Secondary Lead Supply**: From January to May, domestic secondary lead production was 1.347 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.61%. High scrap prices and low lead prices led to production cuts. In the second half of the year, there are expectations of production resumption and increase, but long - term over - capacity and high scrap prices may still cause production cuts and periodic supply shortages [53]. - **Import and Export Situation**: From January to May 2025, China's refined lead exports were 20,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.53%; imports were 16,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3089.06%. Net exports were 4700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.14%. Cumulative imports of refined lead and related products were 63,500 tons, up 181.46% year - on - year, and exports were 29,900 tons, up 24.37% year - on - year [60]. 2.3 Demand End - **Battery Market**: As of June 27, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid batteries was 68.77%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. From February to May, the operating rate increased due to policies and "rush - to - export" orders. In June, it declined due to the off - season and order over - drafting. In the second half of the year, the peak season and policies may boost consumption, but there may be off - seasons after the peak [71]. - **Terminal Market**: - **Automobile Market**: From January to May, automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 10.9%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million vehicles respectively, up 45.2% and 44% year - on - year. In the second half of the year, production and sales are expected to increase with policy support, which will positively affect lead consumption [84]. - **Electric Bicycle Market**: By May 20, 6.08 million old and new electric bicycles were traded in, driving new vehicle sales of 17.82 billion yuan. The "trade - in" policy continues, but the industry is in the mature stage, and the lithium - battery market may affect lead - acid battery consumption [87]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.1 Future Outlook - Similar to the market outlook in the preface, the second half of the year may see stable growth in lead consumption but periodic supply shortages in secondary lead, leading to price fluctuations [117]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendation - The same as the strategy recommendation in the preface, including unilateral high - selling and low - buying operations and option trading based on consumption and secondary lead production cuts [6][118].

| 2 | | --- | | 232 | 终将落地 | 铜价或再次下行 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | | 铜市场综述 2 | | | 第二部分 | | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、 | | 行情回顾 3 | | | 二、 | | 行情展望 4 | | | 第三部分 | | 铜矿产量下调，增速低于年初预期 7 | | | 一、 | | 铜精矿供应增速不及预期 7 | | | 二、 | | 废铜结构性错配造成供应下降的假象 10 | | | 三、 | | 全球精铜产量情况 12 | | | 第四部分 | | 消费面分析 15 | | | 一、 | | 三季度海外消费保持韧性，四季度不确定性增强 | 15 | | 二、 | | 国内需求分化 17 | | | 三、 | | 新能源行业需求走弱 22 | | | 四、 | | 消费总结 27 | | | 第五部分 | | 供需平衡表 28 | | | | | 免责声明 | 29 | 有色金属研发报告 铜半年报 2025 年 6 月 3 0 日 232 终将落地 铜价或再次下行 第一部分 铜市场综述 2025 年 ...

短期，预计 6 月马棕继续小幅累库，三季度产地仍处增产周期，棕榈油 报价或震荡偏弱运行。目前市场仍关注美国生柴的落地情况，将对盘面造成 较大扰动。当前美豆主产区天气良好，后期继续关注产地天气和季度报告。 国内豆油开始累库，但预计库存仍不会宽松。欧洲菜籽临近上市，另外加拿 大上调旧作菜籽库存，国内菜油基本面变化不大，菜油供大于求的格局持续， 不过国内菜油进入逐渐去库阶段，菜油在国内基本面边际好转的预期下以及 中加关系不确定性仍存，对菜油盘面提供一定支撑。 【策略推荐】 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、 | 行情回顾 3 | | | 二、 | 棕榈油出口表现欠佳，库存整体保持紧平衡 | 4 | | 三、 | 印度阶段性进口高峰有望来临，但本年度整体进口或将明显下滑 | 9 | | 四、 | 提议增加美国生柴义务 12 巴西上调生柴掺混至 B15，EPA | | | 五、 | 国内油脂库存持续累库 油脂基差稳中偏弱运行 ...

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | 2 | | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 3 | | | 5 | | | 9 | | | 13 | | | 14 | | | 16 | | | 18 | 黑色板块研发报告 双焦 6 月报 2025 年 6月 27 日 供需宽松格局延续，双焦漫漫寻底 第一部分 前言概要 - - - 银河期货 第 2 页 共 23 页 黑色板块研发报告 双焦 6 月报 2025 年 6月 27 日 第二部分 基本面情况 - 图 1：焦煤主力合约走势 图 2：焦炭主力合约走势 第 3 页 共 23 页 黑色板块研发报告 双焦 6 月报 2025 年 6月 27 日 图 3：炼焦煤价格指数 单位：元/吨 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 炼焦煤：价格指数：中国（日） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 图 5：蒙 5 精煤-口岸 单位：元/吨 0 1000 20 ...

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、国际市场：25/26 | 年度全球棉花供需矛盾不明显。 3 | | | 三、美国：新年度产量有所调减，签约表现较差，建议关注未来弃种率变化 4 | | | 四、其他国家：印度新年度种植面积有所增加、巴西产量略有上调。 6 | | | 五、国内市场：短期去库速度较快，下半年关注旺季需求变化。 7 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 11 | 农产品板块研发报告 棉系半年报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 国际宏观变数大 低库存支撑棉价 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 上半年棉花价格走势主要受宏观影响为主，由于上半年基本面未出现明 显变化使得棉花价格前期维持震荡走势，4 月伴随着特朗普对全球加征关税 使得市场对全球经济有一定悲观预期，大宗商品整体表现受其影响而偏弱走 势，棉花价格最低跌至 12400 附近，之后由于特朗普对关税态度有所缓和 以及中美瑞士谈判超预期使得棉花价格回升后进入震荡调整。 上半年美棉上半年基本面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg supply pressure has been alleviated, and the egg price may bottom out. In the second half of the year, especially during the Mid - Autumn Festival in August and September, the egg price is expected to strengthen. However, the specific increase in egg price depends on whether the number of culled chickens can remain high. If the number of culled chickens remains high, the increase will be relatively large; otherwise, it will be limited. [5][24][40] - For the futures market, the downward space of the futures price is relatively limited as the profit per catty of eggs is in a loss or flat state. The upward space of the August and September contracts in the second half of the year depends on the future number of culled chickens. If the number of culled chickens remains high, the upward space is relatively large; if not, the contracts may fluctuate slightly stronger. [5][42] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In 2025, the spot price of eggs was weak. Due to the high pre - stocking volume, the supply was loose in the first half of the year. Combined with the average feed cost, the egg price was low. It started at 3.1 yuan/jin and dropped to around 2.65 yuan/jin. The futures contracts also showed a weak trend, and the August contract dropped to around 3455. [4][10] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The downward space of the futures price is limited because of the loss or flat profit per catty of eggs. The upward space of the August and September contracts in the second half of the year depends on the future number of culled chickens. [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For the unilateral strategy, consider building long positions in the far - month August and September contracts in mid - to late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. For the arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see. [6] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the previous market review, the spot price of eggs was weak in 2025. The supply was loose due to high pre - stocking, and the futures contracts also performed weakly. [10] 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - **Spot**: The spot price of eggs trended weakly in the first half of the year. The average price in the main production areas dropped from around 3.2 yuan/jin to around 2.62 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas from 3.38 yuan/jin to 2.84 yuan/jin. The increase in the number of culled chickens recently has alleviated the supply pressure. [11] - **Supply**: In May, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a 7.2% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the laying - hen inventory from June to September 2025 will be approximately 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively. The proportion of large, medium, and small eggs in June was 40.67% (medium - low level in the same period over the years), 42.28% (medium level), and 17.05% (medium - high level) respectively. The egg - laying rate in June was about 90.98%, at a low level in the same period over the years, and is expected to decline with the hot weather. In May, the monthly egg - laying chick hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, a 4% month - on - month decrease and a 1% year - on - year increase. The current weekly market price of egg - laying chicks is 4.06 yuan/feather, a 0.08 - yuan decrease from the previous month. The number of culled chickens increased in June but was still at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. As of June 19, the average culling age was 509 days, at a medium - high level over the years. [11][13][14] - **Demand**: After the Spring Festival, the demand was okay but declined recently due to the seasonal off - season. As of June 19, the weekly egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7527 tons, at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. From January to May 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 20317.1 billion yuan, a 5% year - on - year increase, and the catering revenue in May was 457.8 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. [22][24] - **Inventory**: As of June 19, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, at a low level in the same period over the years, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. [24] - **Cost and Profit**: The feed cost changed little in the first half of the year and is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. In June, the corn price was 2421 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 2986 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2591 yuan/ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.85 yuan/jin for eggs. As of June 19, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was - 0.55 yuan/jin, at a low level in the same period over the years. On June 20, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan/feather, also at a low level in the same period over the years. [31][33] - **Substitutes**: The vegetable price changed little in the first half of the year, and the pork price remained in a low - level shock. As of June 22, the Shouguang vegetable index was 103.73, and as of June 20, the pork price was around 15.72 yuan/kg. The low vegetable and pork prices had a relatively weak substitution demand for eggs. [34] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The current laying - hen inventory is at a high level over the years, but the supply pressure has been alleviated recently. If the market's enthusiasm for culling chickens weakens, the supply side will still face pressure; if the number of culled chickens remains large, the supply pressure will improve. [40] - **Demand**: The short - term demand is average due to the off - season, but in the long - term, the egg price may be boosted by the seasonal peak in the second half of the year. [40] - **Feed Cost**: The comprehensive feed cost per catty of eggs in the first half of 2025 was about 2.8 yuan/jin. The prices of corn and soybean meal changed little, and the feed cost is expected to remain at the current level, providing certain support for the egg spot price. [40] - **Overall Outlook**: In the second half of the year, the egg price is expected to strengthen, especially in August and September. The specific increase depends on the future number of culled chickens. For the futures market, the downward space is limited, and the upward space of the August and September contracts depends on the number of culled chickens. [40][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of iron ore in China decreased while demand increased in the first half of 2025. The consumption of iron ore reached a record high, supporting the high valuation of iron ore among the black commodities. [2][93] - In the second half of the year, the global iron ore supply is expected to increase slightly, with a total increment of about 13 million tons from the Big Four mines and non - Australia and Brazil regions. The supply pressure is not significant. [2][93] - The demand for construction steel in China is expected to continue to decline, while the demand for manufacturing steel is expected to remain resilient. Overseas demand, especially from India, is expected to contribute more than 10 million tons of incremental demand throughout the year. [2][93] - The trading logic in the second half of the year mainly involves the Fed's interest - rate cuts and global tariff policies. The fundamentals of iron ore supply and demand will remain neutral, and the Platts iron ore price will fluctuate widely between $90 - $105. [3][94] - The trading strategy suggests speculatively buying at the bottom of the iron ore price and for spot enterprises to hedge at high prices. [5][95] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1.1 Production and Sales of the Big Four Mines in H1 2025 - The total production of the Big Four mines in the first half of the year was estimated at 545 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% (2 million tons), and the total shipment was 544 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% (0.6 million tons). The overall production and sales were lower than market expectations. [12] - In the second half of the year, the production may accelerate, with the increment mainly from Rio Tinto and BHP, but the overall increment may be only about 7 million tons. [12] 3.1.2 Domestic Iron Ore Imports - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 513 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% (26 million tons). Imports from Australia, Brazil, and non - Australia and Brazil all declined. [13] 3.1.3 Non - Australia and Brazil Global Shipments - The current non - Australia and Brazil global shipments depend on the remaining gap in global total demand after subtracting the shipments of the Big Four mines. The marginal cost of non - mainstream mine shipments may be above $90. [29][30] - Australia and Brazil's non - mainstream mines are unlikely to see large increments. Non - Australia and Brazil global shipments are likely to decline. [33][37] 3.1.4 Domestic Iron Concentrate Production and Scrap Steel Consumption - From January to May 2025, domestic iron concentrate production decreased by 5.4% year - on - year (6 million tons). In 2025, it is expected to continue to contribute to the reduction. [49] - In 2025, domestic scrap steel consumption is unlikely to see a significant increase due to the continuous decline in real estate investment. [49] 3.1.5 Terminal Steel Demand - The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the infrastructure may contribute a small reduction. The manufacturing investment remains at a relatively high level, and the demand for manufacturing steel is expected to maintain its resilience. [56][61] - Overseas iron element consumption has been at a high level. India's steel demand is expected to contribute more than 10 million tons of incremental demand throughout the year. [73][74] 3.1.6 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - The total inventory of imported iron ore ports is relatively high, but the low total iron element inventory and the resilience of overseas demand support the iron ore price. The port iron ore inventory is expected to remain balanced in the third quarter. [80][83] 3.2 Iron Ore Market Outlook - The supply of iron ore in China decreased while demand increased in the first half of 2025. In the second half of the year, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is expected to maintain a certain level. [93] - The trading logic in the second half of the year mainly involves the Fed's interest - rate cuts and global tariff policies. The fundamentals of iron ore supply and demand will remain neutral, and the Platts iron ore price will fluctuate between $90 - $105. [94] - The trading strategy suggests speculatively buying at the bottom of the iron ore price and for spot enterprises to hedge at high prices. [95]

黑色板块研发报告 铁合金半年报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 成本宽松拖累，合金继续磨底 第一部分 前言概要 第 1 页 共 11 页 黑色板块研发报告 铁合金半年报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 银河期货 第二部分 基本面情况 图 1：铁合金主力合约走势回顾（元/吨） 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 硅铁主力 硅锰主力 图 3：72%FeSi 硅铁现货市场价（元/吨） 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 内蒙 宁夏 青海 陕西72 图 4：72%FeSi 内蒙硅铁现货市场价（元/吨） 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 第 2 页 共 11 页 图 2：盘面主力合约 sf-sm 价差（元/吨） -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021 2022 ...