1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices rebounded from the bottom. There are renewed expectations of supply disruptions at the mine end, and market sentiment has improved. Due to the increased geopolitical conflict, the global commodity supply is significantly disrupted. However, the impact on the domestic iron ore supply is relatively small as Iran exported nearly 20 million tons of iron ore in 2025, with less than 6 million tons exported to China. On the fundamental side, mainstream mines at the supply end continue to contribute significant increments, and the pattern of loose supply of imported iron ore persists. On the demand side, since the second half of last year, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic fixed - asset investment has been continuously negative, and there may be a reduction in steel consumption in the first half of this year. Therefore, there is no expected increase in domestic terminal steel demand. With the intensification of geopolitical conflicts, the increase in domestic steel exports may decline, leading to a possible reduction in domestic hot metal production. Overall, current supply disruptions at the mine end have a significant impact on prices, and iron ore prices are at a stage - low. Supply disruptions have a certain impact on market sentiment, and it is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate. The trading strategy suggests a fluctuating trend for single - sided trading, and staying on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in geopolitical conflicts disrupts the global commodity supply, but the impact on domestic iron ore supply is small. The supply of imported iron ore is loose, while domestic terminal steel demand has no incremental expectations, and domestic hot metal production may decrease. Supply disruptions affect prices and market sentiment, leading to an expected fluctuating trend in iron ore prices [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - sided trading is expected to fluctuate; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Global Iron Ore Shipment - The weekly average of global iron ore shipments since 2026 is 30.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12% or 29 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments are 17.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% or 13 million tons, and Brazil's weekly shipments are 6.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% or 2.8 million tons. Mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil have seen significant year - on - year increases in shipments, and it is expected that the high - increment trend will continue in the first half of the year [7]. 3.2.2 Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment - The weekly average of non - Australia and non - Brazil iron ore shipments since 2026 is 6.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29% or 13 million tons. Australia's non - mainstream weekly shipments average 2.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% or 1.4 million tons, while Brazil's non - mainstream shipments average 1.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1% or 0.1 million tons. Geopolitical conflicts may lead to a significant reduction in the increment of global seaborne iron ore, with the reduction mainly coming from non - Australia and non - Brazil regions (excluding Simandou) [9]. 3.2.3 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore increased slightly, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly, and the total domestic imported iron ore inventory decreased slightly. The current port inventory of imported iron ore is at the highest level in the past six years, and the pattern of loose supply and demand of domestic iron ore continues. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the port inventory of imported iron ore has continued to increase, while terminal steel demand remains low, and the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore have changed significantly [11]. 3.2.4 Domestic Terminal Manufacturing Steel Demand - In December 2025, the year - on - year decline in real estate new construction was 19%, and the year - on - year decline in sales area was 17%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment decreased by 11% year - on - year. Real estate has improved marginally but remains at a low level, while the decline in infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates is relatively large. Since 2026, domestic hot metal production has increased by 1% or 1.5 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production has decreased by 0.5% or 1 million tons year - on - year. Building material demand has decreased by 0.5% or 0.3 million tons year - on - year, non - building material demand has increased by 0.6% or 0.6 million tons year - on - year, and domestic crude steel consumption is basically flat year - on - year. It is expected that the weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals will continue, and the high valuation of iron ore is unlikely to be sustained. Overseas, in 2025, overseas iron ore consumption decreased by 1% or 9 million tons year - on - year, but overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.5% or 37 million tons year - on - year, with India's crude steel production increasing by 10% or 15.5 million tons year - on - year [13]. 3.3 Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 Imported Iron Ore Port Price - The report presents the price trends of the Platts iron ore price index, Qingdao Port PB powder, Qingdao Port Carajás fines, and the spread between high, medium, and low - grade powder, as well as the relationship between steel mill cash profit and the spread [19]. 3.3.2 Imported Iron Ore Port Profit - It shows the import profit trends of PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special fines, Jinbuba, PB lump, and FMG [21]. 3.3.3 East China Mainstream Steel Mill Profit - The report displays the cash profit trends of East China rebar, East China hot - rolled coil, and relevant cost data such as East China hot metal cost (excluding tax), East China hot - rolled coil cash cost, East China billet cost (excluding tax), and East China rebar cash cost [23]. 3.3.4 Domestic and Foreign US Dollar Spread - It presents the spread between SGX and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the difference between East China hot metal and recycled steel (excluding tax) [25]. 3.3.5 Iron Ore Main Contract Basis and Inter - period Spread - The report shows the basis of the optimal delivery product against the 01, 05, and 09 contracts, as well as the 9/1, 1/5, and 5/9 spreads [27]. 3.3.6 Global Four Major Mines' Shipment - It presents the global shipment trends of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports [29]. 3.3.7 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - It shows the inventory trends of powder, lump, pellet, non - trade, iron concentrate, and non - Australia and non - Brazil iron ore at ports [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the guidance price suppressed the spot market, which showed mediocre performance. This week, demand weakened, and urea prices declined weakly [5]. - The ex - factory prices in mainstream areas have been firm since the weekend, with stable market sentiment and average trading volume. Urea enterprises have received few orders [5]. - The daily output of urea has rebounded to around 223,000 tons, reaching a new historical high. The international market price is firm, and India has tendered for another 1.5 million tons, with an expected price of no less than $500 per ton. However, there are no new quotas in China, so the overall impact is limited [5]. - After the Spring Festival, the operating rates of compound fertilizer plants in the Central and Northeast regions have gradually increased, but their raw material inventories are high, and procurement has basically stagnated [5]. - Urea enterprises' inventories started a narrow - range destocking mode this week after a significant inventory build - up during the Spring Festival. On March 4, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0981 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons from the previous period, a 6.62% month - on - month decrease [5]. - Mainstream urea enterprises in key regions raised their ex - factory prices to the association's guidance price over the weekend, up 30 yuan per ton from last Friday. However, the guidance prices from April to June are the same as in March, indicating that domestic policies still suppress urea prices [5]. - As agricultural top - dressing ends and industrial demand is tepid, manufacturers' order receipts have declined significantly, and the market atmosphere has weakened rapidly. In the short term, futures should be treated with a bearish mindset [5]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, short from high levels without chasing the short; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for over - the - counter trading, stay on the sidelines [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Overview**: The domestic gas - fired urea plants that were under maintenance have resumed production, and the daily output has increased. The international market price is strong, but the impact on China is limited due to the lack of new quotas. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has increased, but procurement has stagnated. Urea enterprises' inventories have started to decline slightly. Policy still suppresses prices, and the market atmosphere has weakened. The trading strategy is to short from high levels on the single - side, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [5] - **Core Data Changes** - **Supply**: In the 9th week of 2026 (February 26 - March 4), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 97.92%, a 0.10% month - on - month increase; that of gas - based urea was 76.60%, a 0.31% month - on - month increase. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate of urea was 99.93%, a 0.18% month - on - month decrease [6] - **Demand**: In the 10th week of 2026 (February 27 - March 5), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.54%, an 8.26 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 37.02%, a 3.61 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. As of March 6, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,960 tons, a 47.37% month - on - month increase. The arrival volume of urea in the Northeast this week was 85,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous week. As of March 4, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.71 days, a 0.59 - day increase from the previous period, an 8.29% month - on - month increase [6] - **Inventory**: On March 4, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0981 million tons, a 6.62% month - on - month decrease. As of March 5, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 190,000 tons, a 9.20% month - on - month increase [6] - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was stable, the price of Yulin pulverized coal was weak, and the spot price of urea was firm. The production profit of urea was stable, with a fixed - bed production profit of 150 yuan per ton, a coal - water slurry production profit of 240 yuan per ton, and a gas - fluidized bed production profit of 460 yuan per ton. The futures were volatile, the basis was near parity, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 13 yuan per ton [6] 3.2 Other Data Tracking (Directory Items without Specific Content in the Given Text) - Mainstream manufacturers' ex - factory prices [9] - Basis [16] - Regional spread [23] - Warehouse receipts and spread [27] - Urea - methanol futures spread [31] - Raw coal price [35] - Production profit [38] - Urea/liquid ammonia and synthetic ammonia spread [42] - Urea operating rate [47] - Urea output [54] - Urea pre - sales [61] - Urea inventory [65] - Other inventory supply and demand [72] - Compound fertilizer [82][89][92] - Melamine [98] - Urea export [105] - Furniture [111]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term driving forces for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are strong, but the risk - reward ratio has decreased. It is recommended to partially take profits on previously suggested long positions [1][5][6] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Ferrosilicon: Supply side shows a slight decline in sample enterprise operating rate and output, with short - term absolute values at a low level compared to the same period. However, price increases have led to profit recovery and some production resumption. Demand side sees a short - term decline in hot metal output due to environmental restrictions in Hebei before the Two Sessions, but steel output is increasing steadily. Cost side is supported by the issuance of differential electricity price documents in Shaanxi and stable - to - rising electricity prices. The market is in a positive feedback loop between cost and demand, but the risk - reward ratio has declined [5] - Ferromanganese: Supply side shows a slight decrease in sample output, and overall supply is expected to be stable after new capacity was put into production. Demand side has increasing steel output, but rising steel inventories are suppressing the demand recovery speed. Cost side has strong support from the firm spot price of port manganese ore and a slight increase in the April manganese ore US dollar quotation from overseas mines. The supply - demand side has marginal improvement drivers, and the cost side has strong support, but the risk - reward ratio has declined after price increases [5] Strategies - Unilateral: The short - term driving force is still strong, but the risk - reward ratio has decreased after the price increase. Partially take profits on previously suggested long positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Not provided in the content Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply - Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.2759 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56900 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) is 17800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons. The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel types (70%) is 111200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 900 tons [11] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in the country is 26.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.77%. The national ferrosilicon output (weekly supply) is 96500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2100 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises in the country is 35.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08%. The national ferromanganese output (99% of weekly supply) is 195900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1600 tons [12] - **Inventory**: In the week of March 6th, the national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 66300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4100 tons. The national inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national capacity) is 387300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11000 tons [13] Other Data Tracking - The content also provides data and charts on spot prices - basis, ferroalloy enterprise production, steel mill production, ferromanganese and ferrosilicon cost - profit, manganese ore price, carbon and electricity price, steel procurement price, monthly output of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, manganese ore and ferrosilicon import - export, magnesium metal demand, and inventory of alloy plants, steel mills, and ports [17 - 89]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Apple's fundamentals are strong. The current cold - storage apple inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. As of February 27, 2026, the cold - storage apple inventory in the main producing areas of the country was 5.5292 million tons, a decrease of 190,800 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 181,100 tons, a decline of 3.2%. This inventory level is only higher than that of the 2018/19 fruit season, being the second - lowest in recent years [16]. - Although the apple price is relatively high this fruit season, the pre - Spring Festival sales and delivery situation was acceptable. After the Spring Festival, March and April are the relative off - seasons for other fruits to be on the market, and the recent apple sales situation has improved, with the inventory reduction speed accelerating compared to the previous week [16]. - As March enters the delivery month, the market has once again focused on whether cold - storage apples can meet the delivery requirements and the cost of making warehouse receipts. The fundamentals of the May apple contract are indeed strong, but the price of the May contract has increased significantly today, and there may be some profit - taking positions being closed, so caution is needed when chasing high prices [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Analysis - Apple producing areas have different sales situations, with the overall sales atmosphere remaining stronger in the west and weaker in the east. In the western region, merchants are actively seeking high - quality goods. In the Gansu producing area, the price of high - quality goods has increased, and some merchants have turned to Qingyang, Gansu and Shaanxi to look for high - quality goods. The sales of general and lower - quality common apples from fruit farmers are average, and merchants have low enthusiasm for purchasing such goods. In the Shandong producing area, the overall sales are average, some merchants are bargaining for goods, and the overall transactions are still mainly low - priced goods [6]. - In the sales areas, the overall post - festival market sales are stable. The post - festival market arrival volume is low, and the sales have begun to slow down [6]. - Main producing area prices: In the Shandong producing area, the number of merchants inspecting cold - storage apples in the Qixia area is acceptable. Merchants replenish their supplies as needed, and the transactions after some customers inquire about prices are average. In the Qixia area, the replenishment is mainly general common goods, and there are a small number of high - quality goods transactions, with limited overall transactions. Some fruit farmers are willing to lower prices. In the Penglai area, the transactions are mainly third - grade goods, and some merchants are looking for high - quality goods to supplement the market. In the Shaanxi producing area, the number of merchants has increased, and some merchants have transferred from the Gansu producing area to Shaanxi to look for high - quality goods. The price of high - quality goods in the Yan'an area is slightly firm, but the overall transactions are still average. The transactions of general common apples from fruit farmers are not fast, and merchants have low enthusiasm for seeking common goods [6]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - Inventory monitoring: As of March 5, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 35.73%, 2.29 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From February 26 to March 4, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.82 percentage points, and the inventory reduction rate was 36.05%. After the Spring Festival, the delivery was mainly concentrated in the northwest producing area, and the sales in the Shandong producing area were stable. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 40.97%, and the cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.51 percentage points this week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 31.78%, and the cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.98 percentage points this week. In Gansu, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 29.84%, and the cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.85 percentage points this week [11]. - Steel Union data: As of March 4, 2026, the cold - storage apple inventory in the main producing areas of the country was 5.2753 million tons, a decrease of 253,900 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory reduction was accelerating compared to the previous week [11]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles has slightly increased compared to the first week after the Spring Festival, with an average of about 18.4 vehicles per day during the week. The market prices of Shandong 80 late - Fuji apples are 3.8 - 4 yuan per catty in baskets and 4.5 - 5.5 yuan per catty in boxes, and the actual transactions are priced according to quality. The prices of Luochuan late - Fuji apples are 4.0 - 5.5 yuan per catty for 70 and above in baskets, and the prices of Jingning late - Fuji apples are 5.8 - 7.5 yuan per catty for 70 and above in boxes. Currently, the number of arrival vehicles in the market is not large, the backlog in the market transfer warehouse is not serious, the willingness of second - and third - level wholesalers to purchase is not high, the market is relatively quiet, and the selling prices are chaotic [14]. - Substitute prices: According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on February 5, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 8.04 yuan per kilogram, slightly higher than last Friday, and at a high level compared to the same period in recent years [14]. - Profit situation: In the 2025 - 2026 production season, the profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples was about 0.3 yuan per ton, the same as last week [14]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: Apple's fundamentals are strong, but the price of the May contract has increased significantly, and there may be some profit - taking positions being closed, so caution is needed when chasing high prices [16]. - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal mine operating rate has increased, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 69% and the Yulin region at 42% as of March 6. After the Spring Festival, coal mines resumed production, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 3 million tons. Demand has weakened, and pit - mouth prices have stopped rising and are weakly falling [3]. - The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 300 - 350 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level, with domestic supply remaining loose. The US dollar price has risen significantly. Iranian plants have restarted, and the non - Iranian operating rate has increased after the US cold wave ended, but the European and American markets fell sharply during the holidays, narrowing the domestic - foreign price difference and closing the Southeast Asian re - export window. The expected import volume in March is about 750,000 tons [3]. - The MTO plant operating rate is at a low level, with some plants shut down and some operating under - capacity. The port inventory is continuously decreasing due to reduced imports from shipping closures, while the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuates slightly [3]. - Before the intensification of the conflict, Iranian methanol plants that were shut down due to gas restrictions resumed production, with the daily output increasing from 6,000 tons to 23,000 tons and the operating rate rising to about 60%. After the intensification of the conflict, some plants in Iran shut down, and the daily output dropped to about 500 tons. The domestic market is worried about a significant reduction in future imports. If the conflict continues and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, the inventory in East and South China will decrease rapidly. The spot price of methanol in Northwest China has also risen sharply. The methanol futures have fluctuated sharply in the past two days, and the exchange has introduced regulatory policies. Currently, the fundamentals have not changed, and trading should be cautious [3]. - The trading strategies are: for single - side trading, go long at low prices but do not chase the rise; for arbitrage, focus on positive spreads; in the over - the - counter market, sell put options [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The report analyzes the raw coal situation, methanol supply and demand, inventory, and the impact of the Middle East conflict on methanol. It also provides trading strategies including single - side trading, arbitrage, and over - the - counter trading [3] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - Supply - Domestic: As of March 5, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 77.36%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points from last week but an increase of 5.72 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 87.93%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points from last week and an increase of 3.96 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 69.85%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points from last week [5]. - Supply - International: From February 28 to March 6, 2026, the international (ex - China) methanol output was 760,909 tons, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 52.16%, a decrease of 4.14%. Geopolitical conflicts led to large - scale shutdowns of plants in the Middle East, and Southeast Asian plants have not recovered this week [5]. - Supply - Import: From February 26 to March 4, 2026, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 227,900 tons, including 200,300 tons from foreign vessels and 27,600 tons from domestic vessels. Among them, Jiangsu received 15,300 tons, Guangdong 6,300 tons, and Xiamen 6,000 tons [5]. - Demand - MTO: As of March 5, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 38.95%, the same as last week. The national olefin plant operating rate was 85.37%, and the operation of domestic MTO enterprises' plants was stable, with only individual adjustments in inland enterprises' loads and no obvious change in the operating rate [5]. - Demand - Traditional: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 2.85%. The Wanlilai plant increased its load, and the Yunnan Jiehua plant started up, with the recovery volume greater than the loss volume. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 84.11%, and the overall capacity utilization rate was stable. The formaldehyde operating rate was 28.72%, with multiple domestic plants starting up and some plants increasing their loads, resulting in an increase in supply [5]. - Demand - Direct Sales: The weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 101,400 tons, an increase of 80,100 tons from the previous statistical date, with a month - on - month increase of 376.06% [5]. - Inventory - Enterprise: As of March 4, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 552,400 tons, an increase of 17,100 tons, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 295,200 tons, an increase of 85,500 tons from the previous period [5]. - Inventory - Port: As of March 4, 2026, the total port inventory was 1,443,500 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 24,200 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 27,400 tons [5]. - Valuation: In terms of profit, the price of chemical coal in the northwest region was stable, and the inland methanol auction price increased sharply. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 480 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi, it was 520 yuan/ton. The port - north line price difference was 480 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 140 yuan/ton. The MTO loss increased, and the basis was stable [5] 2. Spot Price - The spot price of Taicang was 2,460 yuan/ton (+270), and the north line was 1,980 yuan/ton (+170) [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Due to the sudden geopolitical conflict in the Middle East over the weekend, the supply of international crude oil and natural gas has become tight, driving up energy prices. With the increase in ethylene costs and concerns about supply shortages, the bullish sentiment in the PVC market has been rising. The cost of the ethylene method has increased by more than 380 yuan/ton this week, and the spot market price has risen steadily. The price of calcium carbide-based Type 5 PVC in East China has reached 4,800 - 5,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Next week, the scale of maintenance of PVC production enterprises will change little. Domestic demand is expected to recover, and foreign trade exports are waiting for April quotes. The supply - demand fundamentals will remain in a stalemate. Due to geopolitical impacts, the ethylene method is expected to rise. It is predicted that the PVC spot market will be weakly stalemated next week and still be affected by geopolitical conflict sentiment. There is a need to be vigilant about the pressure on the ethylene market caused by energy supply disruptions, which may lead to a reduction in the global ethylene - based supply. Overall, the ex - warehouse cash price of calcium carbide - based Type 5 PVC in East China is initially expected to be in the range of 4,800 - 5,100 yuan/ton [3]. - The trading strategy is to go long at low prices but not to chase the rise for single - side trading; to wait and see for arbitrage; and to wait and see for over - the - counter trading [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The report provides a trading strategy of going long at low prices but not chasing the rise for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for over - the - counter trading [3]. Fundamental Data - **Core Data Changes** - PVC production enterprise output is 49.61 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.28% (0.64 tons) and a year - on - year increase of 5.97% (2.80 tons). The PVC industry inventory sample is 191.67 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.14% and a year - on - year increase of 36.37%. The inventory of all sample production enterprises is 51.29 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.59% and a year - on - year increase of 1.96%. The PVC social inventory is 140.38 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.76% and a year - on - year increase of 62.29% [4]. - This week, Jiyuan Fangsheng and Yantai Wanhua had maintenance, and some enterprises adjusted their loads. Hangjin stopped production in March. The loss of production due to maintenance and production reduction this week is 11.51 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.90% and a year - on - year increase of 3.91%. The production capacity of maintenance enterprises in March is 3.14 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 50.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.12% [4]. - The average weekly trading volume in the PVC market this week is 1.47 tons, with an increase of 0.7 tons compared to before the holiday and a decrease of 0.3 tons compared to the same period last year [4]. - The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week is 35.84%, with a month - on - month increase of 18.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.61%. The profile operating rate is 27.39%, with a month - on - month increase of 16.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%. The pipe operating rate is 33%, with a month - on - month increase of 19.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.88% [4]. - The available days of raw material inventory of downstream pipe and profile product enterprises this period have increased by 1.4 days to 14 days. Upstream and the market have delivered goods to the terminal after the holiday, and product enterprises have made appropriate low - price purchases [4]. - The sample export order volume of PVC production enterprises this week has increased by 27.6% to 2.45 tons compared to the previous period, with a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The delivery volume has decreased by 22% to 4.2 tons (enterprises have concentrated on delivering exports this week), and the undelivered volume has decreased by 7.71% to 20.96 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 60.79%. Affected by shipping space, rising freight rates, and the Middle East situation, the March delivery price of PVC has stabilized, with the FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC at 635 - 640 US dollars/ton and that of ethylene - based PVC at 655 - 670 US dollars/ton [4]. - **PVC Supply Analysis** - **Enterprise Output by Process**: Not provided in the given content - **Enterprise Output by Region**: Not provided in the given content - **Enterprise Pre - sales by Process**: Not provided in the given content - **Enterprise Capacity Utilization by Process**: Not provided in the given content - **Raw Material Source Weekly Operating Data**: Not provided in the given content - **Maintenance Enterprise Statistics**: Many enterprises have maintenance plans in March and April, including Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, etc. Some are cost - based maintenance, and some are regular maintenance. There are also foreign enterprises with maintenance plans, such as Japan's Taiyo Ethylene, Formosa Plastics USA, etc. [19]. - **Production Enterprise Production Increase Plan**: Many enterprises have production increase plans, including Zhejiang Jiajiaxingcheng New Materials, Andao in Guangxi, etc. The production increase plans involve both calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, and the planned production times vary [20]. - **PVC Cost Analysis** - **Raw Material Cost Comparison over the Years**: Not provided in the given content - **Raw Material Gross Margin Comparison over the Years**: Not provided in the given content - **PVC Supply Analysis - Production Enterprise Inventory by Process/Region**: Not provided in the given content - **PVC Demand Analysis - Product Enterprise Operating Rate and Inventory** - The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week is 35.84%, with a month - on - month increase of 18.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.61%. The profile operating rate is 27.39%, with a month - on - month increase of 16.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%. The pipe operating rate is 33%, with a month - on - month increase of 19.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.88% [4]. - The available days of raw material inventory of downstream pipe and profile product enterprises this period have increased by 1.4 days to 14 days [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is affected by frequent geopolitical disturbances, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. The five major steel products have a slight increase in production, with an increase in rebar production and a shift in hot-rolled coil production. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has a seasonal rebound, but inventories are still accumulating rapidly, especially for rebar. The capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved, and the capital availability of housing construction projects is better than that of non - real estate projects. The "Two Sessions" have released this year's economic growth target, with the GDP growth rate lower than last year. The demand recovery situation remains to be seen, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the iron - water production this year, putting pressure on raw materials. Recent overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, which may drive up the cost of steel raw materials. During the "Two Sessions", steel prices generally maintain a volatile trend, but may return to the fundamentals after the "Two Sessions", and there is still pressure on steel prices. [7] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar is 173.31 tons (+8.21), and that of hot - rolled coil is 301.11 tons (-8.50). The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces is 227.59 tons (-5.69), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 19.3% (+17.9). The electric - arc furnace is in a loss state, but after the festival, the electric - arc furnace has a rapid resumption of production, and the daily consumption of scrap steel is 39.34 tons, with expected further production increase next week. Long - process steel is generally in a loss state, and steel mills have insufficient enthusiasm for production increase. [4] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar this week is 98.23 tons (+64.68), and that for hot - rolled coil is 281.57 tons (+13.20). Downstream demand has a certain recovery this week but is still lower than the same period last year. The restocking demand of the manufacturing industry has declined, and overseas has entered the off - season. The capital availability of downstream construction sites is still weak. The growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment from January to December has continued to decline month - on - month, and there is a lack of incremental domestic project investment. In December, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, completion, and new construction has narrowed, but still maintains a negative growth of about 20 - 30%. In February, the commercial housing sales in 30 large - and medium - sized cities across the country have a month - on - month decline of 26%, and residents' willingness to buy houses is insufficient, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend. The official manufacturing PMI in February is 49%, and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI is 52.1%. The manufacturing PMI in February has continued to decline, and new orders, exports, and production data have decreased due to the off - season of manufacturing demand and the decline in overseas demand. In January, China's automobile production has a year - on - year decrease of 2.09%, and exports have a year - on - year increase of 73.2%, with domestic demand declining and overseas demand increasing significantly. The production schedule of the three major white goods in March has a year - on - year decrease of 4%, and the decline has narrowed. Currently, it is the off - season for home appliance demand, but home appliance production may improve in April. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in February is 51.6, down from the previous value of 52.4, indicating a decline in the US manufacturing industry. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week is 213,000, the highest since the week of February 7, worse than the expected 215,000, but the US manufacturing industry is still in the expansion stage. The initial value of the euro - zone manufacturing PMI in February is 50.8, up from the previous value of 49.5, indicating an expansion, and the data of Germany and France have both risen above the break - even line, indicating that the euro - zone manufacturing industry is recovering. [4] - **Inventory**: For rebar, the factory inventory has an increase of 5.09 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 69.99 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 75.08 tons. For hot - rolled coil, the factory inventory has a decrease of 4.70 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 24.24 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 19.54 tons. For the five major steel products, the factory inventory has a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 105.38 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 103.89 tons. [4] - **Outlook**: The five major steel products have a slight increase in production, with rebar increasing production and hot - rolled coil shifting to production increase. Steel mills are still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has a seasonal rebound, but inventories are still accumulating rapidly, with rebar having a faster inventory accumulation rate, and the inventory is shifting from factory inventory to social inventory. The capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved this week, and the capital availability of housing construction projects is better than that of non - real estate projects. The "Two Sessions" have released this year's economic growth target, with the GDP growth rate lower than last year. Due to the possible lower - than - expected capital expenditure in the first quarter, the demand recovery situation remains to be seen, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the iron - water production this year, putting pressure on raw materials. Recent overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, and the resonance of oil and precious metals has an impact on black prices. If the frictions intensify in the future, it may drive up the cost of steel raw materials. During the "Two Sessions", steel prices generally maintain a volatile trend, but may return to the fundamentals after the "Two Sessions", and there is still pressure on steel prices. [7] - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: Maintain a volatile trend. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread at high levels, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil - coking coal ratio. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see. [9] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the rebar summary price in Shanghai is 3,190 yuan (-10), and that in Beijing is 3,100 yuan (+10). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai is 3,230 yuan (-10), and the Hebei Steel hot - rolled coil price in Tianjin is 3,140 yuan (-). [13] - **Profit**: The cash profit of long - process steel mills in East China and Tangshan for rebar, and in Tianjin and East China for hot - rolled coil is presented in the corresponding charts. The flat - rate electricity profit of the electric - arc furnace in East China is - 235.43 yuan (-5.9), and the off - peak electricity profit is - 70 yuan (-6). [24][31] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Summary - **China**: The official manufacturing PMI in February is 49, lower than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.3. China plans to set the deficit ratio at about 4% in 2026, with the target for the rise in consumer prices at about 2%. In 2026, 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will be issued (the same as in 2025), with 300 billion yuan of special treasury bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan of local special bonds. The expected economic growth target for 2026 is 4.5 - 5%. The National Development and Reform Commission of China will intensify the rectification of "involution - style" competition, orderly reduce the production capacity of industries such as steel and refining, strengthen the exploration, development, and reserve of strategic mineral resources, and build a reserve system. The government work report will strengthen anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition, strengthen the rigid constraints of fair competition review, and use means such as production capacity control, standard guidance, price law enforcement, and quality supervision to rectify "involution - style" competition and create a good market environment. [33] - **US**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 28 is 213,000, the highest since the week of February 7, worse than the expected 215,000. [33] - **EU**: The European Commission announced the "Industrial Accelerator Act" on the 4th, proposing requirements such as "Made in the EU" in public procurement and public support programs to enhance the internal value - creation ability of the EU and consolidate the EU's industrial foundation. [33] - **Social Financing and Investment**: In January, the new social financing is 722.08 billion yuan, up from the previous value of 220.75 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.36%. The new RMB loans are 471 billion yuan, up from the previous value of 91 billion yuan. Resident loans are 45.65 billion yuan, and enterprise loans are 445 billion yuan. The growth of social financing in January is generally stable. The issuance of government bonds, the year - on - year increase in short - term enterprise loans and short - term resident loans support the new social financing, while medium - and long - term enterprise and resident loans drag down the new social financing, and the willingness for production, operation, and housing purchase is still insufficient. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment is - 3.80%, down from the previous value of - 2.6%, and the growth rate has continued to decline rapidly month - on - month. Among them, the cumulative year - on - year investment in real estate development is - 17.2%, the cumulative investment in manufacturing is + 0.6%, the cumulative year - on - year completion of infrastructure investment is - 1.48%, and the cumulative year - on - year completion of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) is - 2.2%. The growth rates of the three types of investment have continued to shrink significantly month - on - month. The real estate market lacks fiscal support and remains a drag on domestic demand. The issuance of government bonds has slowed down compared with the same period last year, which has affected infrastructure investment to a certain extent. Enterprise loans are low, and the investment growth rate in the manufacturing industry has continued to shrink due to the lack of industrial prosperity. [42] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces is 227.59 tons (-5.69), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 19.3% (+17.9). The small - sample production of rebar is 173.31 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8.21 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil is 301.11 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.50 tons. [60][65] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar is 98.23 tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 57.9%), with a month - on - month increase of 64.68 tons. The small - sample apparent demand for hot - rolled coil is 281.57 tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 10.21%), with a month - on - month increase of 13.20 tons. The real - estate project resumption rate this week is 22.4%, with a month - on - month increase of 14.2 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year increase of 1.5 percentage points; the labor employment rate is 29.5%, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year increase of 7.8 percentage points; the capital availability rate is 35.3%, with a month - on - month increase of 6.9 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year increase of 7 percentage points. The non - real - estate project resumption rate is 23.9%, with a month - on - month increase of 14.7 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year decrease of 0.3 percentage points; the labor employment rate is 29.8%, with a month - on - month increase of 15.8 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points; the capital availability rate is 35.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 6.4 percentage points and a lunar year - on - year decrease of 1.1 percentage points. The overall resumption rate across the country has a slightly narrower year - on - year increase, showing the characteristics of "faster in the south than in the north, priority for key projects, and differentiated capital". The issuance of special bonds in East China remains stable, and there are improvements in the northwest and south this period, ensuring project resumption. Projects in North and Central China are affected by regulations, and the project resumption rhythm is affected. The resumption progress of urban renewal and "two - major" construction projects has accelerated, and special bonds and debt - resolution funds are accelerating the shift towards people's livelihood and strategic projects. The capital of resettlement housing and affordable housing projects in housing construction projects has continued to improve, and the capital of high - speed rail and water conservancy projects in non - housing construction projects is guaranteed. In 2025, China's cumulative steel exports from January to December are 119.02 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, steel exports are 1.13 million tons, an increase of 132,000 tons from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 13.23%. According to high - frequency data in February, recent exports have declined due to export licenses. Due to the rapid appreciation of the RMB and the outbreak of the US - Iran war, orders from March to April have been affected, and there is a risk of a decline in steel exports in the future. [68][77][80] - **Inventory**: For rebar, the factory inventory has an increase of 5.09 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 69.99 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 75.08 tons. For hot - rolled coil, the factory inventory has a decrease of 4.70 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 24.24 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 19.54 tons. For the five major steel products, the factory inventory has a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 tons, the social inventory has an increase of 105.38 tons, and the total inventory has an increase of 103.89 tons. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a long - position suggestion for coking coal and coke futures at low prices, with a short - term bullish view on the market and a mid - term view of wide - range fluctuations, suggesting trading in bands [1][5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the coking coal and coke futures have large price fluctuations but no clear trend. Geopolitical conflicts drive up oil and gas prices, which in turn support coking coal prices through the transmission chain of oil and gas - thermal coal - marginal coal (coking coal blend) - prime coking coal. However, due to the long transmission chain and sufficient domestic coking coal supply, it's difficult to drive up coking coal prices significantly [5]. - The current valuation of coking coal is low. Affected by market sentiment spill - over, the coking coal and coke futures are expected to have certain support in the short term, showing a small upward wave. Attention should be paid to the price performance of oil and gas and thermal coal. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke is difficult to change qualitatively, and it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, not yet forming a trend - based opportunity. Band trading is recommended [5]. - For unilateral trading, due to large price fluctuations and unclear trends, cautious investors are advised to wait and see. From the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio, investors can also try long positions at low prices. In the medium term, it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and band trading is recommended. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Due to large price fluctuations and unclear trends, cautious investors are advised to wait and see. From the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio, investors can try long positions at low prices. In the medium term, it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and band trading is recommended [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal has declined this week, with major coal types dropping by 30 - 80 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian coal fluctuated with the futures market. The overall expectation of the black market is weak, and downstream buyers are cautious in purchasing raw materials. With the rapid resumption of coal mine production and high customs clearance of Mongolian coal, coal prices are under pressure. However, due to the sharp rise in international energy prices, the downward space for spot prices is expected to be limited. The domestic coking coal supply is increasing, with the capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines rising to 82.32% (+14.08%). The customs clearance of Mongolian coal at ports is high, and the inventory pressure is emerging. The demand for coking coal has decreased slightly, with the coke output dropping slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased, but the inventory of coal mines and ports has increased [7][8]. - **Coke**: The first - round price cut of coke has been implemented this week, with a reduction of 50 yuan/ton. The current supply - demand of coke is relatively balanced, the price of coking coal is fluctuating, and it is difficult to raise the price of coke further. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable next week. The coke output has decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain stable next week with slight fluctuations. Affected by environmental protection and other factors, the molten iron output has declined this week but is expected to rebound in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The total inventory of coke has increased, and the profitability of coke enterprises varies by region [9]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Coking Coal Price**: The spot price of domestic coking coal has declined, and the price of imported coking coal fluctuates. The price indices of low - sulfur prime coking coal, medium - sulfur prime coking coal, and coking coal have shown different trends [8][27][30]. - **Coke Price**: The first - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and the price of coke is expected to remain stable. The price indices of coke, ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade coke, and trade price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port have different trends [9][37]. - **Coking Coal Basis**: The basis of coking coal for Mongolian coal and Shanxi coal shows different trends in different contracts [40][47]. - **Coke Basis**: The basis of coke for port spot and Shanxi origin shows different trends in different contracts [56][64]. - **Coking Coal Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spreads of coking coal (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) show different trends in different contracts [72]. - **Coke Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spreads of coke (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) show different trends in different contracts [77]. - **Coking Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased, and the output of raw coal and clean coal has also increased [12][82]. - **Coking Coal Import Volume**: The import volume of coking coal shows different trends from different countries [85]. - **Imported Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance**: The customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal at ports is high, and the number of vehicles shows a high - level fluctuation [8][88]. - **Coke Enterprise Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises and the daily output of coke show different trends [91]. - **Steel Mill Blast Furnace Production**: Affected by environmental protection and other factors, the molten iron output of steel mills has declined, and the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate have also decreased [23][94]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal has decreased, but the inventory of coal mines and ports has increased. The inventory of coke enterprises and steel mills has decreased [8][97][100][103]. - **Coke Inventory**: The total inventory of coke has increased, with the inventory of coke enterprises and ports increasing, and the inventory of steel mills decreasing [9][106].

Report Title - China PMI Observation Report, March 6, 2026: Bright Domestic Demand in the Off - season - February China PMI Observation [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In February 2026, both manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs were below 50, showing economic weakness. However, domestic demand in both sectors was a highlight. The domestic demand in the manufacturing sector reached the highest level since April 2025 and the second - highest in the same period in history, and in the non - manufacturing sector, it reached the highest level since May 2025. With the arrival of the peak season in March, economic data is expected to improve [4][6][30] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing PMI Data Table Review - **Manufacturing PMI**: In February 2026, it was 49, down 0.3 from the previous month and lower than the market expectation of 49.2. Most sub - items decreased, such as the finished - product inventory sub - item (down 2.8 to 45.8), new export orders (down 2.8 to 45), etc. Only the production - operation expectation, raw - material inventory, and domestic demand sub - items increased [3][4] - **Non - manufacturing PMI**: In February 2026, the business activity index was 49.5, up 0.1 from the previous month but lower than the expected 49.7. Most sub - items declined, while the input price, inventory, business activity, and domestic demand sub - items increased [3][30] 3.2 February Manufacturing PMI Reflects Economic Weakness - **Overall Situation**: The manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for two consecutive months. Most sub - items decreased, with only three sub - items increasing. Domestic demand was at a historically high level, which was the biggest highlight in the February data during the manufacturing off - season [4][6] - **Seasonality**: Manufacturing PMI, production, finished - product inventory, new orders, and new export orders were at the lowest levels in history (except 2020), while domestic demand was at the highest in the same period in history (except 2019) [6] - **Enterprise and Industry Differences**: Small and medium - sized enterprise PMIs declined, especially small enterprises, which were at the worst level since 2023. Large enterprise PMI increased, reaching the second - highest since November 2024. Among industries, the consumer goods industry recovered in February, while high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and basic raw material industries declined [6] - **Outlook**: Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026, the decline in January and February data was affected by seasonality. Starting from March, the peak season will come, and data is expected to improve [7] 3.3 February Non - manufacturing PMI: Domestic Demand is also a Bright Spot - **Overall Situation**: The non - manufacturing PMI business activity was below 50 for two consecutive months. Most sub - items decreased, and the domestic demand sub - item increased, reaching the highest level since May 2025, going against the off - season trend [30] - **Seasonality**: In February, sub - items such as business activity, new orders, export orders, and construction and service industry PMIs were at the lowest levels in the same period in history (except 2020) [30][32] - **Construction Industry**: The construction industry PMI continued to decline, but the selling - price sub - item had bottomed out, indicating that housing prices may be stabilizing, but the sustainability needs to be observed [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peanut spot price is stable, and the peanut futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The trading volume of peanuts has increased. The price of Henan general peanuts is weak, the price of Shandong peanuts is stable, and the price of Northeast peanuts is weak. The price of imported peanuts is stable, but the import volume is still low. The operating rate of oil mills has increased, the purchase price is stable, the peanut meal spot price is stable, and the peanut oil price is stable. The downstream consumption is still weak, the peanut inventory of oil mills has increased, and the peanut oil inventory has continued to rise. The market spot of peanuts is weak, the price difference between Northeast and Henan peanuts is still at a high level, the oil peanuts in Henan and other places are abundant, the spot price of Northeast peanuts is also weakening, and the price of Senegalese peanuts is low. However, the current cost of warehouse receipts is 7,900 - 8,000 yuan/ton, and the futures price is basically the same as the warehouse receipt price. The 05 peanut futures contract has shown a weak oscillation this week, and the 5 - 10 spread has shown a narrow - range oscillation [6]. - Recommended strategies include selling the pk605 - P - 7700 option strategy, lightly going long on the 05 peanut futures contract at low prices, and taking a wait - and - see attitude towards the spread [5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Option Strategy**: Sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option strategy [5]. - **Trading Logic and Other Strategies**: The trading volume of peanuts has increased, with different price trends in different regions. The price of imported peanuts is stable but the import volume is low. The operating rate of oil mills has increased, and the purchase price, peanut meal, and peanut oil prices are stable. Downstream consumption is weak, and inventories are rising. The 05 peanut futures contract is weakly oscillating, and the 5 - 10 spread is narrowly oscillating. It is recommended to lightly go long on the 05 peanut futures contract at low prices and take a wait - and - see attitude towards the spread [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Peanut Price**: The purchase price of oil mills is stable, the price of imported peanuts is stable, and the price of general peanuts is weak. The price of Henan peanuts has declined, and the price of Northeast peanuts has risen. The purchase price of oil mills is generally between 7,200 - 7,600 yuan/ton. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts is 8,600 yuan/ton, and the price of imported Senegalese oil peanuts is 7,200 yuan/ton, and the price of commodity peanuts is 7,700 yuan/ton [9][11]. - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rate of oil mills has increased. As of March 5th, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 3.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.93%. The arrival volume of oil mills this week is 11,100 tons, an increase of 10,900 tons compared to last week. The peanut inventory of oil mills is 195,900 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons compared to last week. The peanut oil inventory is 41,000 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared to last week [13][15]. - **Pressing Profit**: The purchase price of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut meal, and the price of peanut oil are all stable. The pressing profit of oil mills is 103 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,300 yuan/ton, and the price of small - squeezed concentrated sesame oil is 16,300 yuan/ton, both stable compared to last week. The price of peanut meal is 3,050 yuan/ton, stable compared to last week [17][19]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 5 - 10 spread of peanuts is stable at around - 340 yuan, and the basis is stable. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude [21][26]. - **Peanut Import**: In December, the import volume of peanut kernels was 25,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was 252,000 tons, a 66% decrease compared to the same period last year. The export volume of peanut kernels in December was 58,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December was 212,000 tons, a 47% increase compared to the same period last year. The import volume of peanut oil in December was 37,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of peanut oil from January to December was 402,000 tons, a 58% increase compared to last year [28][30]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Peanut Price**: Charts show the price trends of Shandong general peanut kernels, the purchase price of oil mills, and the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts, as well as the price trends of Shandong western general peanut kernels and the price difference between Henan and Shandong peanuts [10][34]. - **Basis and Spread**: Charts show the spread trends of peanut 1 - 4, 4 - 10, and 10 - 1, as well as the basis between Shandong peanuts and continuous contracts [40]. - **Peanut Import and Export**: Charts show the cumulative import and export volumes of Chinese peanuts and the import price and cumulative import volume of peanut oil, as well as detailed data on the cumulative import volume of peanut oil from different countries [42][60]. - **Pressing Profit**: Charts show the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, and the spot price of Shandong Rizhao soybean meal [47]. - **Downstream**: Charts show the operating rate of pressing plants, the peanut pressing volume, and the peanut oil inventory of oil mills [52]. - **Price Difference**: Charts show the price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal per unit of protein, the price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil spot, the price difference between peanut oil and sunflower oil, and the price difference between peanut oil and rapeseed oil [62][66].