Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals dated October 21, 2025, focusing on various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomically, Sino - US trade relations ease, and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is being watched. Fundamentally, copper mine supply disturbances increase. SMM expects a decrease in electrolytic copper production in October. Consumption shows "peak season without peak". The recommended trading strategies are long on dips, continue to hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [2][4][5]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant after downstream electrolytic aluminum plants complete their stockpiling. Some small - scale production cuts and maintenance have started, and more are expected in November. The price is expected to bottom out around 2800 yuan. Strategies include short - term low - level consolidation and waiting on spreads and options [11][12][13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors will drive the price this week. The consumption resilience in the fundamentals provides support. The strategy is to be bullish on dips and cautious on chasing highs [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price. High social inventory and warehouse receipts may limit the upside. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Strategies include being bullish on dips and waiting on spreads and options [24][25]. - **Zinc**: The import zinc ore loss widens, and domestic processing fees decline. The supply of refined zinc may increase, and consumption may weaken. The price shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Strategies include waiting on all trading types [27][31][33]. - **Lead**: Downstream lead - storage enterprise orders improve, but production may increase in mid - to - late October, and the price may fall. Strategies include holding short positions and selling out - of - the - money call options [38][39]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and there is cost support, but the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside. The price is expected to oscillate widely with a downward center. Strategies include shorting at the upper limit of the oscillation range and selling a wide - straddle combination [43][45][46]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is below the cost, and the terminal demand is not optimistic. It may keep a weak oscillation pattern. Strategies include weak oscillation and waiting on spreads [51][52]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade tensions ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly. The price may oscillate around the integer level. Strategies include waiting on options [58][59][60]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Polysilicon production cuts in November are bearish for demand. The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply. Strategies include waiting for a full correction [63][64][65]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand balance will improve in November. The short - term correction space is limited. Strategies include buying on dips, holding reverse spreads, and adjusting option strategies [70][71][72]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand. The price's oscillation center moves up. Strategies include being bullish on the oscillation, waiting on spreads, and selling out - of - the - money put options [74][75]. Group 4: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2512 rose 0.16% to 85400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 2 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is held, and Japan, Spain, and South Korea express concerns about copper processing and refining fees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors affect the market, and the export window may open again [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on dips, hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 fell 6 yuan to 2810 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price decreased in most regions [6]. - **Related Information**: There are procurement, production adjustment, inventory, and import - export data [7][8][9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus becomes more obvious, and production cuts are expected [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term low - level consolidation, wait on spreads and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 rose 35 yuan to 20965 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose in different regions [15]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, inventory, and economic data [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors support the price [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, cautious on chasing highs [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy 2512 rose 60 yuan to 20460 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions [20]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, warehouse receipt, inventory, and import - export data [20][21][23]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price, and supply - demand factors affect the upside [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, wait on spreads and options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.39% to 21970 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot market was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory, production, and import - export data of zinc mines and refined zinc [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The import loss of zinc ore widens, and the supply of refined zinc may increase [31]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait on all trading types [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.2% to 17155 yuan/ton, and the index position increased. The spot price rose, and downstream procurement was active [35]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory and import - export data [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand improves, but production may increase [38]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2512 rose 460 to 121380 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot premium was stable [41]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export, production, and consumption data [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside [43][45]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short at the upper limit of the oscillation range, wait on spreads, and sell a wide - straddle combination [46][47][48]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of stainless steel SS2512 rose 55 to 12665 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price was in a certain range [50]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export and procurement price data [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is below the cost, and demand is not optimistic [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: Weak oscillation, wait on spreads [52]. Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2511 rose 1920 yuan/ton or 0.69% to 280870 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose, and demand recovery was weak [55]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, cooperation agreements, and mobile phone market data [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillate around the integer level, wait on options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply [64]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for a full correction, no arbitrage and option strategies for now [65][66][67]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will improve, and short - term correction space is limited [70]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Buy on dips, hold reverse spreads, and adjust option strategies [71][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 fell 200 to 75980 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price rose [73]. - **Important Information**: There are production plan changes, import - export, and new energy vehicle production data [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand [74]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on the oscillation, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money put options [75]. Group 5: Price and Related Data - There are daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, showing price, spread, profit, and inventory data [76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85] - There are also various graphs showing price trends, spreads, and inventory changes of different non - ferrous metals [87][90][94][98][105][107][110][117][119][124][126][130][132][138][142][146][150][154][157][162][165][170][174]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,410, up 7 (0.13%), volume 545 (-264), open interest 6,895 (+54) [5] - SR01: Closing price 5,438, up 10 (0.18%), volume 127,499 (-48,383), open interest 421,702 (-4,713) [5] - SR05: Closing price 5,396, up 7 (0.13%), volume 10,605 (-10,631), open interest 82,750 (-131) [5] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5,810, Kunming 5,905, Wuhan 6,060, Nanning 5,770, Bayuquan 6,015, Rizhao 5,870, Xi'an 6,210, all unchanged [5] - Basis: Liuzhou 372, Kunming 467, Wuhan 622, Nanning 332, Bayuquan 577, Rizhao 432, Xi'an 772 [5] Inter - month Spreads - SR5 - SR01: Spread -42, down 3; SR09 - SR5: Spread 14, unchanged; SR09 - SR01: Spread -28, down 3 [5] Import Profits - Brazil: ICE主力 15.77, premium (0.41), freight 42.00, in - quota price 4,212, out - of - quota price 5,357, spread with Liuzhou 453, spread with Rizhao 513, spread with futures 81 [5] - Thailand: ICE主力 15.77, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4,269, out - of - quota price 5,431, spread with Liuzhou 379, spread with Rizhao 439, spread with futures 7 [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Important Information - Brazil exported 2,334,620.93 tons of sugar in the first three weeks of October, with a daily average of 179,586.23 tons, up 6% from the daily average in October last year (169,516.64 tons). Last year's October export volume was 3,729,366.09 tons [7] - Processing sugar quotes were stable or down, with general trading volume [8] - Typhoon "Fengshen" and cold air will bring strong wind and rain to South China and the northern South China Sea from October 21 - 22, and cold air will cause temperature drops in South and East China [9] Logical Analysis - Internationally, global main production areas are increasing production. Brazil's cumulative sugar production has exceeded last year's level, and the bi - weekly sugar production is likely to be higher than last year's. The decline in crude oil prices weakens ethanol's support for sugar, and the raw sugar market is bearish [10] - Domestically, the domestic market is currently supplied mainly by imported sugar. With the weakening of foreign sugar prices, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the foreign market in the short term [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices have broken through the previous low and are bearish in the long - term. After a short - term sharp decline, there may be a rebound. The domestic market is expected to be affected by the foreign market and may fluctuate and repair. It is recommended to short at high prices [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Wait and see [11] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include monthly inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan, sales - to - production ratios in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou spot prices, Liuzhou - Kunming spot price spreads, basis and inter - month spreads of different contracts [14][15][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The release of MSK's WK45 Shanghai - Rotterdam quote of $2350 during the session on October 21st boosted market sentiment, driving the EC futures market up significantly. The EC2512 contract closed at 1769.3 points on that day, a 5.19% increase from the previous day's close. The SCFI European line rate on October 17th was $1145/TEU, a 7.2% week - on - week increase, and the latest SCFIS European line index released after the market on Monday was 1140.38 points, a 10.5% week - on - week increase, exceeding market expectations. The 2510 contract is repairing its discount upwards [3][5]. - The spot freight rate spread among major shipping companies has widened again. Some shipping companies have lower SPOT prices due to cargo - booking pressure, but the fundamentals are expected to gradually improve given the good long - term cargo receipts of shipping companies. Different shipping companies have different price adjustment strategies. It is expected that the freight rate center of shipping companies in the second half of October will move up compared to the first half, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price increases [6]. - In terms of demand, cargo volume continues to decline seasonally, and shipments from November to December are expected to gradually improve. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on the shipment rhythm. On the supply side, the weekly average capacity of Shanghai - Northern Europe 5 ports in October, November, and December is 244,500, 268,400, and 279,500 TEU respectively. There are four additional sailings cancelled in November by OA, and the weekly average capacity has decreased by 6.5% compared to this week's schedule. OA continues the strategy of multiple ship - changing operations in December [6]. - In terms of risks, the Hamas is discussing the next - stage content of the Gaza cease - fire agreement in Egypt, which involves disarmament. Attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent negotiations. Recently, China and the US have stated that they will restart tariff negotiations, and the sentiment has eased. Attention should also be paid to the progress of these negotiations [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Performance**: On October 21st, the EC2512 contract closed at 1769.3 points, up 5.19% from the previous day. Other contracts such as EC2510, EC2602, etc. also had different degrees of price increases and changes in trading volume and open interest [3]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The spreads between different contracts have changed. For example, the spread of EC10 - EC12 is - 634, down 52.4; the spread of EC12 - EC02 is 201, up 41.3 [3]. 3.2 Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line index is 1140.38 points, a 10.52% week - on - week increase and a 48.27% year - on - year decrease. The SCFI comprehensive index is 1310.32 points, a 12.92% week - on - week increase and a 38.63% year - on - year decrease. Different routes have different freight rate changes [3]. 3.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month contract is $56.94 per barrel, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease and an 18.28% year - on - year decrease. The price of Brent crude oil near - month contract is $60.8 per barrel, a 0.59% week - on - week decrease and a 17.5% year - on - year decrease [3]. 3.4 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis**: The release of MSK's high - price quote, the increase in the SCFI European line rate, and the progress of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and Sino - US tariff negotiations have all affected the market. The supply and demand fundamentals of the shipping market are in a state of change, with seasonal changes in demand and capacity adjustments on the supply side [5][6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold long positions in the EC2512 contract and continue to hold the 2 - 4 calendar spread long positions, and consider partial profit - taking on rallies [7][8][9]. 3.5 Industry News - The US has listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has responded [9]. - EU member states support phasing out Russian natural gas imports by January 2028 [10]. - The Hamas is discussing the next - stage content of the Gaza cease - fire agreement in Egypt, and Israel has appointed a representative for its command center in the US to oversee the implementation of the Gaza agreement [11]. - Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said that indirect contacts with the US are still ongoing, and formal negotiations have not started [12].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: October 21, 2024 [2] - Researchers: Wang Xizhen, Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,540 with a gain of 75, trading volume of 245,897 hands (down 43,834), and open interest of 593,229 (up 231) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,775 with a gain of 170, trading volume of 13,841 hands (up 161), and open interest of 23,282 (up 1,127) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49; CY IndexC32S was 20,470 yuan/ton, up 30 [3] - Cot A was 75.65 cents/pound, up 75.10; FCY IndexC33S was 21,200 yuan/ton, down 18 [3] Spreads - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was -60, up 5;棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was -20, up 95 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,235, up 95; 1% tariff内外棉价差 was 3,273, up 1,901 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of October 17, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 376,700 tons, accounting for 12% of the annual US cotton production forecast, 27% slower year - on - year [6] - In September 2025, cottonseed imports were about 75,177.17 tons, down 35.84% year - on - year, with an average import price of about $342.25/ton, down 10.91% year - on - year [6] - In September, total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, up 3.0% year - on - year. Retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles above the designated size were 123.1 billion yuan, up 4.7% year - on - year [7] Trading Logic - During the festival, as new cotton entered the acquisition period, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, Xinjiang cotton production was high and ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm was general, with no large - scale rush to buy [8] - The peak season demand in the market was average, and the improvement in downstream demand was limited, so the peak season performance was not expected to be outstanding [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a fluctuating trend [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [11] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to rise, but the cotton yarn market was affected by weak downstream demand. The trading volume was average, and spinners and traders were cautious [11] - The cotton fabric market in October was weaker than in September, with demand remaining sluggish. Winter orders were nearing completion, and spring orders were scarce [13] Group 4: Options Option Data - On October 21, 2025, CF601C13400.CZC closed at 247, up 32.1%, with an implied volatility of 9.3% [15] - CF601P13000.CZC closed at 45, down 29.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.9% [15] Volatility and Strategy - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 8.542, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of relevant options varied [15] - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.7255, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.6021. Both call and put trading volumes increased [16] - Option strategy: Wait and see [17]

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 769.5 | 767.0 | 2.5 | I01-I05 | 20.0 | 19.5 | 0.5 | | DCE05 | 749.5 | 747.5 | 2.0 | I05-I09 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | | DCE09 | 729.5 | 727.5 | 2.0 | I09-I01 | -40.0 | -39.5 | -0.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 772 | 775 | -3 | 841 | 66 | 85 | 105 | | 纽曼粉 | 777 | 775 | 2 | 842 | 67 | 86 | 106 | | 麦克粉 | 777 | 775 | 2 | 843 | 68 | 88 | 108 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 淵時 | | RB05 | 3104 | 3101 | 3 | HC05-RB05 | 132 | 133 | -1 | | RB10 | 3144 | 3149 | -5 | HC10-RB10 | 123 | 116 | 7 | | RB01 | 3047 | 3045 | 2 | HC01-RB01 | 172 | 170 | 2 | | RB01-RB05 | -57 | -56 | -1 | RB10-RB01 | 97 | 104 | -7 | | RB05-RB10 | -40 | -48 | 8 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -143 | -161 | 18 | RB05/105 | 4.14 | 4.15 | - ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5474 | 38 | 96 | 178926 | 44234 | 208602 | -11015 | | SM主力合约 | 5746 | 8 | 8 | 160346 | 7360 | 369062 | -8772 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5250 | -30 | 0 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | -20 | 30 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5230 | 0 | 30 | 硅锰6517宁夏 | 5580 | -20 | -20 | | 72%FeSi青海 | 5250 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Agricultural Product Daily Report - Research Date: October 21, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The late - maturing Fuji apple is expected to have a low premium fruit rate due to small fruit diameters in some areas of Shaanxi and water - crack problems caused by continuous rainfall. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is high, and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts is also high. Therefore, the futures price is expected to remain in a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index was 107.18, down 0.43 from the next - working - day price. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.08, up 0.08. Prices of some apple varieties like Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70, Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bag 80, and Yiyuan paper - bag 70 remained unchanged [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 was 8850, down 15 from yesterday's close; AP05 was 9309, down 15; AP10 was 9377, up 23. The spreads AP01 - AP05 remained unchanged at - 459, AP05 - AP10 increased by 8 to - 75, and AP10 - AP01 decreased by 8 [3]. - **Basis**: Data for the basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against different futures contracts were not available [3]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Market News** - As of September 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 14.79 tons, a decrease of 6.02 tons from the previous week [6]. - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 6.84 tons, a 27.6% increase from the previous month but a 17.6% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative export volume from January to August 2025 was about 53.27 tons, a 7.7% decrease year - on - year. The import volume in August 2025 was 1.18 tons, a 33.3% decrease from the previous month and a 15.3% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to August 2025 was 9.84 tons, a 22% increase year - on - year [6]. - The trading price of apples in the origin was stable. In Shandong, there was a small amount of high - quality apple procurement, and the supply and tradable volume were average. In the northwest, the enthusiasm for ordering high - quality apples was high, but the procurement of average - quality apples was cautious. The market arrival volume was small, and the sales speed and price were stable [7]. - The profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. - The ordering price of apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi was stable, with the mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity apples above 70 being 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty. In Qixia, Shandong, the acquisition of new - season apples had just started with a small volume, and the prices varied greatly according to quality [8]. - **Trading Logic**: Due to small fruit diameters in some areas of Shaanxi and water - crack problems caused by continuous rainfall, the premium fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be low. The opening price and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts are high, so the futures price is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term [9]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: The apple futures price is expected to be bullish and volatile in the short term due to the expected low premium fruit rate [10]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes 10 related charts, such as the price chart of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price chart of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70 apples, and the chart of the total apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao [14][24][30].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货宽幅震荡，最终报收 1609（+2/+0.12%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价稳中下调，成交一般，河南出厂报 1500-1510 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1490-1500 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1540-1550 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1460-1500 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1500-1510 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1400-1470 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【隆众尿素】10 月 21 日，尿素行业日产 18.25 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.03 万吨； 较去年同期减少 0.66 万吨；今日开工率 77.99%，较去年同期 84.82%下降 6.83%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价下跌，成交平平。山东地区 主流出厂报价领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕， 成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交 乏力，待发消耗，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价跟涨，贸 易 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply of laying hens remains high, and the demand is generally weak. In the short - term, without significant improvement in demand, egg prices are likely to be weak. Near - month contracts are expected to show a volatile and weak trend, and it is advisable to consider shorting near - month contracts at high prices [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: For futures contracts, JD01 closed at 3169, up 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3339, down 8; JD09 closed at 3828, down 26. The 01 - 05 spread was - 170, up 11; the 05 - 09 spread was - 489, up 18; the 09 - 01 spread was 659, down 29. Ratios like 01 egg/corn and 01 egg/soybean meal had minor changes [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.72 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas it was 3.01 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin. The average price of culled hens was 4.14 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The profit per laying hen was - 4.68 yuan, down 3.48 yuan from the previous day [3]. 2. Fundamental Information - **Price and Market Conditions**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased by 0.08 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas by 0.07 yuan/jin. Most mainstream prices across the country declined. Beijing's egg prices dropped by 5 yuan per box [6]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In September, the national laying hen inventory was 1.368 billion, up 0.03 billion from the previous month and 6% year - on - year. The estimated laying hen inventories for October, November, December 2025, and January 2026 are approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick and Culled Hen Data**: In September, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 39.2 million, down 1.5% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year. In the week of October 16, the culled hen出栏量 was 20.32 million, up 2.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Sales and Inventory**: As of October 17, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7374 tons, up 2.7% from the previous week. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, down 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. The production - link inventory was 1.05 days, down 0.45 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.1 days, down 0.23 days [8]. 3. Trading Logic - The supply of laying hens remains high, and there is short - term supply pressure. The demand is weak, and without significant improvement, egg prices are likely to be weak, with near - month contracts expected to show a volatile and weak trend [10]. 4. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [11]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [12].