大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 2025/7/1 | | --- | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7972 | (12) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8202 | | | | 8202 | 8132 | 230 | 0 | 230 | -10 | 160 | -10 | | 棕榈油 | 8336 | 6 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8436 | | | | 8566 | 8596 | 100 | -50 | 230 | -10 | 260 | -40 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that precious metals rebounded from a low level during the day, fulfilling the expectation that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about precious metals. The report suggests that despite short - term fluctuations in risk - aversion sentiment affecting the market, due to the substantial implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, it is expected that US inflation will rebound and the economy will slow down. Additionally, the approaching passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill may exacerbate US debt and deficit issues in the future. Therefore, the report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for precious metals. The report also highlights the importance of closely monitoring a series of US employment data, including non - farm payrolls, this week, as a continued cooling of the labor market may support the precious metal market [9]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: London gold is trading around $3340, and London silver is around $35.3. Driven by the overseas market, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.47% to 776.1 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 1.11% to 8810 yuan/kg [3]. - Dollar index: It dropped again and is trading around 96.6 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield declined slightly and is around 4.25% [5]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is oscillating at a high level, trading around 7.16 [6]. Important Information - Trump administration's actions: Canada cancelled the digital service tax, and the White House will restart negotiations with Canada; EU officials will visit the US for trade talks on July 1st, and it is reported that the EU will accept Trump's general tariffs but seek exemptions for key industries; US Treasury Secretary believes there will be a wave of trade agreements signed in the last week before July 9th; Trump criticized the Fed again, and the Treasury Secretary hinted that Trump is considering appointing Powell's successor next year [7]. - US macro: The US Chicago PMI in June was 40.4, lower than the expected 43 and the lowest since January [7]. - Fed watch: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 79.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 20.2%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 5.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 75.9%. The market expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year [7]. Logical Analysis The precious metals rebounded from a low level, validating the view that there is no need for excessive pessimism. The report maintains that US inflation rebound and economic slowdown are the base - case scenarios, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill may deepen US debt and deficit problems. The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for precious metals and suggests focusing on US employment data this week [9]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average [10]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12].

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日星期二 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2508 合约收于 80640 元/吨，涨幅 1.09%，沪铜指数减仓 15446 手至 59.61 万手。 2.现货：下半年首个交易日持货商积极挺价，铜价高位令市场采购情绪较低。上海报升水 200 元/吨，较上一交易日上涨 70 元/吨。广东报升水 90 元/吨，上涨 25 元/吨。天津消费 不佳限制涨幅，报贴水 120 元/吨，上涨 30 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 据乘联分行秘书长崔东树公众号数据显示，2025 年 1-5 月份世界汽车销量达到 3799 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 7 月 1 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号： F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号 F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数下跌 0.96%至 1033.25 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数下跌 0.42%至 286.5 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.USDA 种植面积报告：美豆新作种植面积 8340 万英亩，市场预估 8365.5 万英 亩，前期评估为 8349.5 万英亩。 2.USDA 季度谷物库存报告：截止 6 月 1 日，美国大豆结转库存 10.1 亿蒲，市场 预估 9.7 亿蒲，3 月份预估为 19.1 亿蒲。 1.单边：低点少量布局多 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 7 月 1 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，由于美元走弱，伦敦金小幅回升，并收复 3300 美元关口，最终 | | 研究员：王伟 | 收涨 0.88%，收报 3302.15 美元/盎司；伦敦银最终收涨 0.36%，报 36.09 美元/盎司。受 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 外盘影响，沪金主力合约收涨 0.54%，报 768.98 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.10%，报 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 8722 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数日内震荡下行，跌破 97 关口，最终收跌 0.54%，报 96.875。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率高开低走，收报 4.23%。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: "Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: July 1, 2025 [2] 2. IM (CSI 1000 Index Futures) 2.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 6,373.77, up 0.28%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 181,858 lots, an increase of 9,846 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 327,974 lots, an increase of 10,329 lots from the previous day [4][5]. - The main contract of IM (IM2509) fell 0.36% to close at 6,133.4 points. The main contract was at a discount of 240.37 points, a decrease of 32.79 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -17.66% [4][5]. 2.2 Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 1000 | 6,373.77 | 0.28% | 24,354 | 3% | 3,343 | -1% | - | - | - | | IM2507 | 6,286.80 | -0.04% | 52,561 | -1% | 659 | -1% | 84,569 | 1,694 | 128 | | IM2508 | 6,210.40 | -0.22% | 5,612 | 33% | 70 | 33% | 8,638 | 1,368 | 13 | | IM2509 | 6,133.40 | -0.36% | 103,226 | 9% | 1,263 | 9% | 164,955 | 6,227 | 243 | | IM2512 | 5,951.40 | -0.47% | 20,459 | 2% | 243 | 1% | 69,812 | 1,040 | 100 | [4] 2.3 Dividend Impact and Basis Information - The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 13.64 points, 16.17 points, 18.13 points, and 18.91 points respectively [5]. 2.4 Main Seats' Information - The information of the top five, ten, and twenty seats in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions for each contract (IM2507, IM2508, IM2509, IM2512) is detailed in the report, showing changes compared to the previous day [18][20][22] 3. IF (CSI 300 Index Futures) 3.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 3,942.76, up 0.17%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 70,001 lots, a decrease of 8,991 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 238,772 lots, a decrease of 5,835 lots from the previous day [23][26]. - The main contract of IF (IF2509) fell 0.03% to close at 3,886 points. The main contract was at a discount of 56.76 points, a decrease of 6.48 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -6.58% [23][26]. 3.2 Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 3,942.76 | 0.17% | 12,896 | -11% | 2,361 | -18% | - | - | - | | IF2507 | 3,911.60 | 0.10% | 28,002 | -9% | 328 | -9% | 60,998 | -4,473 | 86 | | IF2508 | 3,895.00 | 0.01% | 1,906 | -6% | 22 | -6% | 4,228 | 546 | 6 | | IF2509 | 3,886.00 | -0.03% | 34,558 | -14% | 403 | -14% | 132,977 | -2,451 | 186 | | IF2512 | 3,850.20 | -0.17% | 5,535 | -8% | 64 | -9% | 40,569 | 543 | 56 | [23] 3.3 Dividend Impact and Basis Information - The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 22.14 points, 28.03 points, 30.97 points, and 30.97 points respectively [32]. 3.4 Main Seats' Information - The information of the top five, ten, and twenty seats in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions for each contract (IF2507, IF2508, IF2509, IF2512) is detailed in the report, showing changes compared to the previous day [36][37][39] 4. IC (CSI 500 Index Futures) 4.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 5,934.67, up 0.33%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 68,686 lots, a decrease of 2,617 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 220,821 lots, a decrease of 540 lots from the previous day [41][42]. - The main contract of IC (IC2509) fell 0.19% to close at 5,764.6 points. The main contract was at a discount of 170.07 points, a decrease of 23.48 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -13.29% [41][42]. 4.2 Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 500 | 5,934.67 | 0.33% | 15,419 | -7% | 2,136 | -6% | - | - | - | | IC2507 | 5,868.00 | 0.01% | 31,394 | -5% | 368 | -5% | 70,063 | -3,404 | 99 | | IC2508 | 5,817.60 | -0.13% | 3,013 | -1% | 35 | -1% | 5,616 | 796 | 8 | | IC2509 | 5,764.60 | -0.19% | 26,248 | -5% | 302 | -5% | 92,761 | 1,286 | 128 | | IC2512 | 5,639.60 | -0.28% | 8,031 | 3% | 90 | 3% | 52,381 | 782 | 71 | [41] 3.3 Dividend Impact and Basis Information - The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 12.64 points, 17.83 points, 19.77 points, and 26.34 points respectively [47]. 3.4 Main Seats' Information - The information of the top five, ten, and twenty seats in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions for each contract (IC2507, IC2508, IC2509, IC2512) is detailed in the report, showing changes compared to the previous day [53][55][57] 5. IH (SSE 50 Index Futures) 5.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 2,717.71, up 0.21%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 32,102 lots, a decrease of 8,576 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 83,173 lots, a decrease of 2,668 lots from the previous day [59]. - The main contract of IH (IH2509) rose 0.08% to close at 2,689.8 points. The main contract was at a discount of 27.91 points, a decrease of 4.92 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -4.68% [59][60]. 5.2 Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,717.71 | 0.21% | 3,303 | -14% | 661 | -13% | - | - | - | | IH2507 | 2,696.00 | 0.16% | 11,086 | -22% | 90 | -22% | 24,800 | -1,601 | 24 | | IH2508 | 2,691.00 | 0.12% | 999 | 17% | 8 | 17% | 1,764 | 8 | 2 | | IH2509 | 2,689.80 | 0.08% | 17,755 | -23% | 143 | -23% | 48,099 | -1,034 | 47 | | IH2512 | 2,689.60 | 0.08% | 2,262 | -12% | 18 | -12% | 8,510 | -41 | 8 | [59] 5.3 Dividend Impact and Basis Information - The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 20.88 points, 23.44 points, 24.26 points, and 24.26 points respectively [69]. 5.4 Main Seats' Information - The information of the top five, ten, and twenty seats in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions for each contract (IH2507, IH2509) is detailed in the report, showing changes compared to the previous day [73][75]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 om.cn 粕类日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 【粕类日报】供应利多有限 盘面震荡运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/7/1 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3003 | 4 | 天津 | -40 | -40 | 0 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2710 | - 3 | | -130 | -120 | -10 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2961 | 0 | | -130 | -120 | -10 | | | | | | 日照 | -120 | -110 | -10 | | 南通 | 0 1 | 2306 | 5 | | -146 | -142 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global inventories are expected to enter a stockpiling phase. The selling pressure after the start of Brazil's new sugar - crushing season has dragged down the raw sugar price center, and the expected increase in Brazil's production and the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere are suppressing raw sugar prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase [4]. - Domestically, the fast production and sales speed is expected to support sugar prices. However, the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market may drag down sugar prices. Coupled with the recent weak trend of raw sugar, sugar prices will maintain a weak trend in the short term [4]. - Raw sugar has fallen recently due to the expected increase in global supply. The change in Brazil's sugar production remains an important indicator for the market. In China, the faster - than - expected production and sales rhythm supports spot prices. But considering the short - term weak operation of raw sugar, the profit from out - of - quota imports has risen again, and the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to passively follow the raw sugar price fluctuations in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: For SR2511, the closing price is 5,775, down 32 with a decline of 0.56%, the trading volume is 190,361 with an increase of 0.80%, and the open interest is 309,811 with a decrease of 0.82%. For SR2507, the closing price is 5,790, down 20 with a decline of 0.34%, the trading volume is 218 with a decrease of 80.64%, and the open interest is 10,034 with a decrease of 1.11%. For SR2509, the closing price is 5,653, down 35 with a decline of 0.62%, the trading volume is 17,336 with a decrease of 5.00%, and the open interest is 53,130 with an increase of 1.89% [3]. - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the prices are as follows: 6150 in Liuzhou, 5895 - 6090 in Kunming, 6175 in Zhanjiang, 6160 in Nanning, 6420 in Bayuquan, 6420 in Rizhao, and 6420 in Xi'an [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The SR07 - SR11 spread is 137 with a change of 15, the SR09 - SR11 spread is 122 with a change of 15, and the SR07 - SR09 spread is 241 with a change of 15 [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the ICE main contract price is 16.19, the premium is - 0.06, the freight is 36.25, the in - quota price is 4342, the out - of - quota price is 5548, the spread with Liuzhou is 602, the spread with Rizhao is 612.00, and the spread with the futures disk is 242. For Thai imports, the ICE main contract price is 16.19, the premium is 0.83, the freight is 18, the in - quota price is 4378, the out - of - quota price is 5595, the spread with Liuzhou is 555, the spread with Rizhao is 565.00, and the spread with the futures disk is 195 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: It is expected to maintain a sideways trend in the short term [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Take profit on the 9 - 1 spread [7]. - **Options**: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10]. 3.3 Relevant Attached Figures - The attached figures include Guangxi's monthly inventory, Yunnan's monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, the cumulative production and sales rate of domestic sugar, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, the spot price spread between Liuzhou and Kunming, the September basis of white sugar, and the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou sugar [11][13][16][19]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 2025/7/1 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2280 4 0.18% 13,931 -30.94% 115,285 0.96% 2304 0 0.00% 2,522 -41.03% 18,817 2.24% 2383 5 0.21% 426,304 -12.30% 942,750 -2.86% 2678 5 0.19% 2,056 213.41% 5,028 10.14% 2698 7 0.26% 52 -30.77% 221 6.25% 2743 10 0.36% 107,836 -11.75% 156,387 -0.32% 青冈 嘉吉生化 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 2300 2090 2550 2490 2400 2510 2470 10 0 -12 -40 10 0 0 -83 -293 167 107 17 127 87 龙凤 中粮 嘉吉 玉峰 金玉米 诸城兴贸 恒仁工贸 2800 2850 2850 3020 2950 2980 2960 0 50 0 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 河南花生价格稳定，东北花生价格稳定。目前东北吉林扶余 308 通货 4.7 元/斤，较 昨日价格稳定，辽宁昌图 4.7 元/斤，较昨日价格稳定。河南产区白沙通货米报价 4.6-4.75 元/斤，较昨日价格稳定，山东莒南 4.15 元/斤，较昨日价格稳定。进口苏丹精米报价 8300 元/吨，较昨日价格稳定。预计花生现货短期相对偏弱。 今日花生油厂采购价格稳定，主流成交价格维持在 7500-7650 元/吨，油厂理论保本 价 8140 元/吨。今日豆油价格稳定，花生油价格稳定，国内一级普通花生油报价稳定在 15000 元/吨，价格较昨日稳定，小榨浓香型花生油市场报价为 17000 元/吨，价格较昨日 稳定。 1 / 4 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...