地缘+化工板块推动，甲醇偏强运行 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2026年1月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率平稳，截止1月22日，鄂市煤矿开工率73%，榆林地区煤矿开工率50%，煤矿恢复生产，鄂尔多斯地 区煤矿开工率与榆林地区开工率回升，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量420万吨附近，需求平稳，坑口价止跌窄幅反弹。供应端，煤 制甲醇利润在320-350元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，非伊开 工下降，外盘整体开工低位，欧美市场小幅上涨，内外价差稳定，东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗12月装货71，非伊货源减量，1月进口预 期120左右。需求端，MTO装置开工率大幅下滑，兴兴69万吨/年MTO装置停车；南京诚志1期29.5万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，其配 套60万吨/年甲醇装置正常运行；2期60万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，江苏斯尔邦80万吨/年MTO装置停车；天津渤化60万吨/年（MTO） 装置负荷7成；宁波富德60万吨/年DMTO装置停车。库存方面，封航进口到港略 ...

尿素日报 【市场回顾】 大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2026 年 1 月 23 日 1、期货市场：尿素期货宽幅震荡，最终报收 1788（+7/+0.39%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价部分提涨，收单转弱，河南出厂报 1690-1700 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1710-1730 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1710-1720 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1620-1670 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1550-1620 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】1 月 23 日，尿素行业日产 20.48 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.03；较去年同 期增加 1.46 万吨；今日开工率 87.10%，较去年同期 87.00%回升 2.07%。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价整体平稳，市场情绪降温，成交转弱，厂家收单稀少。山东地区主 流出厂报价坚挺，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率提升，原料库存充裕，成品库 存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商开始出货，新单成交转 弱，省内尿素厂收单零星，但待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚挺为主；河南地区市场情绪一 般，出厂报价跟涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn supply is abundant. In the short - term, the US corn 03 contract will fluctuate around 420 cents per bushel. Currently, corn in Northeast China is gradually coming to market, and the supply in North China is also increasing. There will still be a peak of grain sales at the end of January. The rebound of corn spot is limited, and corn will be relatively stable before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, corn is relatively stable, the futures price is at par with the spot price, and the rebound space of 03 corn is limited. Starch will also be relatively stable [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the yield per unit and area of US corn in January. This week, US corn fluctuated narrowly, digesting the negative news. It is expected that the 03 contract of US corn will fluctuate around 420 cents per bushel. The import profit of US and Brazilian corn is high. Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, and the supply of corn has increased, but the port inventory is still low, and the port price is strong. It is expected that the spot will be relatively stable before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the supply of corn in Northeast China has increased, but the downstream has replenished inventory due to rigid demand, and the port inventory is still low, so the price of Northeast corn has risen slightly. The supply of corn in North China has increased, and the spot price is relatively stable. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China is still at a high level, and it is expected that the supply of corn will continue to increase next week. It is expected that the supply in the northern port will increase in the short - term, and the purchase price will be relatively stable. The 03 corn will fluctuate at a high level [4]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has increased, and the starch inventory has decreased, but it is still high. The spot price of corn has risen, and the downstream is still stocking up recently, so the spot price of starch has also risen. The profit of starch factories in North China is relatively stable. In the later stage, the operating rate of starch enterprises will still increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, the spot price of starch will be relatively stable. It is expected that the 03 corn starch will follow the high - level fluctuation of corn [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: - One - sided: Try to buy US corn 03 below 420 cents per bushel. Try to short 03 corn above 2300 [5]. - Arbitrage: Carry out a reverse spread of 3 - 5 starch [5]. - Options: Adopt a strategy of accumulating put options for 03 corn at high prices [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International - US Corn - **Yield Increase and Bottom - Level Fluctuation**: In January, the USDA's report increased the yield per unit and area of US corn. The yield per unit was increased from 186 bushels per acre to 186.5 bushels per acre. This week, US corn fluctuated at the bottom, and the 03 contract fluctuated around 420 cents per bushel. China has lowered tariffs on US agricultural products. The import tariff of US corn is 11%, and that of US sorghum is 12%. Calculated at an 11% tariff, the import cost of US corn in February is around 2170 yuan per ton, with good import profit. As of January 22, the price at Guangdong Port is 2450 yuan per ton, and the cost of Brazilian corn arriving in March is 2127 yuan per ton, with an import profit of 323 yuan per ton [9]. - **Non - commercial Net Short Position Increase and Ethanol Production Increase**: As of January 13, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was 33,000 lots, and the net short position increased. The ethanol production in the United States increased significantly. The 03 contract of US corn fluctuated at the bottom, around 420 cents per bushel [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic - **Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises**: The corn inventory of feed enterprises has increased but is less than the same period last year. As of January 22, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 31.32 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 days, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises has increased. From January 15 to January 21, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed 1381,500 tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has risen, and it is expected to continue to increase next week. As of January 14, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 3.838 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.4% [19][20]. - **Port Inventory**: The corn inventory in the northern ports has increased, and the grain inventory in the southern ports has decreased. As of January 16, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.497 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 million tons. The shipping volume of the four ports that week was 389,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 306,000 tons. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 478,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,000 tons; the foreign trade inventory was 219,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons; the imported sorghum was 61,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons; the imported barley was 694,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons; the total grain inventory was 1.452 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 46,000 tons [23]. - **Grain Sales Progress**: The grain sales progress has accelerated. The overall sales progress of 13 provinces was 56%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The sales progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) was 54%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and the same as the same period last year [27]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of deep - processing has increased. From January 15 to January 21, the national corn processing volume was 635,500 tons, and the starch output was 330,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,400 tons. The operating rate was 60.46%, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. The spot price of corn in North China has stabilized, the spot price of starch has risen, the by - product price has been stable, and the enterprise profit has decreased. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 89 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan, and the profit in Shandong was 14 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan. The downstream提货 volume has decreased, the operating rate has declined, and the starch inventory has decreased. It is expected that the starch inventory will rise next week. As of January 21, the corn starch inventory this week was 1.069 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons, a decrease of 2.8%, a monthly decrease of 3.0%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [31]. - **Substitutes - Wheat**: The arrival price of wheat in North China is basically 2500 yuan per ton, and the price is stable. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. Corn in North China and Northeast China is strong, and the price difference between North China and Northeast corn is low [37]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From January 16 to January 22, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 116 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 52 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was 38 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 77 yuan per head. From January 15 to January 21, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 0.36 yuan per chicken, compared with 0.93 yuan per chicken last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost this week was 3.54 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was 0.13 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.18 yuan per catty last week [46][53]. - **Deep - processing - Corn Starch Downstream Consumption**: This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 71.58%, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 66.15%, a week - on - week increase of 3.68%. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 65.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.85%, and the operating rate of boxboard paper was 67.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7% [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, energy and chemicals, and forest products. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides trading strategies for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives sector, the stock index futures show differentiation, and the rapid repair period of treasury bond futures may have ended; in the agricultural products sector, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends [19][25][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index differentiation continues. On Thursday, the stock index was stable with a slight increase. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes remained strong, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indexes were under pressure. The trading strategies include short - term oscillation in IF/IH, upward oscillation in IM/IC, and corresponding arbitrage and option strategies [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The rapid repair period may have ended. On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. With the tax period affecting the market funds and the equity market's shock - strength, the upward momentum of bond futures has temporarily slowed down. It is recommended to try to go long on the TL contract at low prices [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply disturbances increase, and the market as a whole rises. The demand has slightly improved, and the South American weather affects the US soybean market. However, the overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the domestic soybean meal has short - term support but long - term pressure [26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price fluctuates at the bottom, and Zhengzhou sugar has strong support below. The Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease, but the northern hemisphere's sugar production is in an increasing cycle. The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure, but the price decline space is limited [30]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The international oil and fat prices have fallen. The domestic soybean oil is gradually destocking, and the rapeseed supply is expected to increase. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and destock, but the destocking speed is slow. The overall oil and fat market will continue to oscillate [33][34]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The northern port's spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at a high level. The US corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic corn has short - term stability but long - term pressure [36][38]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has generally risen. However, the overall inventory is still high, and the supply pressure still exists [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at the bottom. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the oil mill has profits. The 03 peanut contract is weak, but the market still oscillates at the bottom [43][44]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival stocking approaches, the egg price has risen. The spot price increase supports the futures market, but the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited [46][48]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the apple price is firm. The high cost of apple warehouse receipts supports the price, and if the later demand is normal, the price of the 05 contract is likely to rise [51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sentiment is optimistic, and the cotton price is supported. The short - term driving force of cotton is limited, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals are strong, and the market is expected to maintain a strong trend [56]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand has weakened marginally, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The construction steel sales have declined, the steel inventory has increased, and the cost has support. The steel price is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The driving force is not obvious, and the market oscillates. The Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, the domestic coal mine production has recovered, and the downstream winter storage is limited. The market is expected to oscillate [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations are volatile, and the ore price is weak. The global iron ore supply is abundant, and the domestic demand is expected to be low. The ore price is expected to be weak [65]. - **Ferroalloys**: After the adjustment, the bottom support is strong. The silicon iron and manganese silicon have stable demand and cost support, and it is recommended to hold long positions and add more at low prices [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical events have widened the trust gap, and gold and silver have reached new highs. The market risk - aversion sentiment has fluctuated, and the PCE data and asset allocation adjustment have promoted the rise of gold and silver. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [71][72]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The US dollar index has weakened, and precious metals have strongly made up for the increase. The geopolitical factors and the change of the US dollar asset confidence have affected the market. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force than palladium [75][76]. - **Copper**: The bullish momentum has weakened, and the copper price is in a high - level consolidation. The geopolitical risk has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the long - term supply of ore is tight. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [79]. - **Alumina**: The market mainly oscillates at a low level. The supply - demand is surplus, and the cost is expected to decline. It is recommended to protect the profit of the previous short positions [83][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price has stabilized in oscillation. The geopolitical concern has dissipated, and the short - term downstream replenishment sentiment exists. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and be strong in the medium term [85][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The risk preference has boosted the aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. The geopolitical concern has dissipated, and the scrap aluminum supply is tight, which supports the price [87]. - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the change of domestic social inventory. The domestic zinc concentrate shortage has been alleviated, the refined zinc production has increased, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory change [92][93]. - **Lead**: There may be support below. The supply may improve, the consumption has weakened, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to try to go long lightly at low prices near the support level [97][98]. - **Nickel**: The optimistic sentiment still exists, and the nickel price is in a high - level consolidation. The geopolitical situation is tense, and the Indonesian production target has been adjusted. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [100][101]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply - demand is tight, and the price is firm. The supply of raw materials is short, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices [103][104]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reduction news has fermented, but the coking coal has dragged down the market. In the short term, the market is expected to be strong in oscillation. The demand is weak in the medium term, but if the production reduction of large factories is implemented, the price is expected to be strong [104]. - **Polysilicon**: The warehouse receipts have increased significantly, and the market expectation has weakened. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the market is pessimistic about the future. It is recommended to participate cautiously [106][107]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. The supply may be affected by policies and maintenance, and the demand is supported by "export rush" and pre - festival stocking. It is recommended to go long after the callback [109]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the macro sentiment. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is mainly affected by the macro sentiment in the short term [112]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate continues to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical dynamics. The spot freight rate is in the off - season decline, and the export tax rebate may delay the decline. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [115][116][117]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation has eased, and the EIA inventory has increased. The increase in inventory and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have pressured the oil price, but the supply threat and the cold wave support the price. The oil price is expected to oscillate widely [121][122]. - **Asphalt**: The low inventory and low production support the spot price. The supply of raw materials is expected to be stable, and the market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 03 contract and the BU4 - 6 positive spread [124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cost is oscillating, and the short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel is abundant. The fuel price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel is expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the FU59 positive spread [126][128]. - **LPG**: Propane still has support. The international LPG is tight, and the domestic supply and demand are relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate widely [130][131]. - **Natural Gas**: There are still concerns about European supply, and there is a short squeeze in the US HH market. The European market is affected by cold weather, low inventory, and geopolitical risks, and the US market is affected by cold weather and supply - demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in TTF and JKM in the third quarter and sell call options [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The capital attention has increased. The PX supply is expected to be high, and the PTA is affected by cost and capital. The market is expected to oscillate widely [136][137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: The transaction of South Korean pure benzene to the US Gulf is good, and the supply of styrene has decreased due to unexpected shutdown of plants. The supply of pure benzene is expected to tighten, and the styrene supply has decreased. The styrene price is expected to be strong in the short term [139][140]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Saudi maintenance may reduce imports, and the market oscillates widely. The supply may decrease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate widely [144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand has weakened. The production load is expected to decrease, and the price follows the cost. The market is expected to oscillate widely [146][147]. - **Bottle Chips**: The maintenance has accelerated in mid - January. The production capacity is expected to decrease, and the replenishment momentum may slow down. The market is expected to oscillate widely [149]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market has support. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [151][152]. - **Plastic PP**: The chemical sector has become stronger, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The domestic PE and PP production capacities have increased, and the market is supported by the chemical sector. It is recommended to hold long positions in L and PP [153][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price has weakened. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be weak [159][160]. - **PVC**: The market has risen in resonance. The supply is expected to decrease, the cost is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strong in oscillation [161][162]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price has fallen. The supply is stable, the demand is good, and the price is expected to decline at a slower pace and oscillate [163][165]. - **Glass**: The futures price has fallen. The production is stable, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline at a slower pace and be weak in oscillation [166][167]. - **Methanol**: The market is running strongly. The international device start - up rate has declined, the domestic supply is loose, and the demand has support. It is recommended to go short in the short term and pay attention to the 59 positive spread [169]. - **Urea**: The market is oscillating. The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has limited impact, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak in oscillation [172]. Forest Products - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates widely. The supply exceeds demand, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to operate more [174][175][176]. - **Logs**: The spot price is stable with a slight increase. The supply pressure has not been significantly relieved, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions and switch the spread strategy [177][179]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the cultural paper spot price has weak rebound. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short - sell in a small amount [180][181]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The synthetic rubber has led the rise. The tire production line start - up rate has increased, which is beneficial to the natural rubber market. It is recommended to wait and see and buy call options [183][184]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The synthetic rubber has led the rise, and multiple contracts have reached the daily limit. The inventory has changed, and the tire production line start - up rate has increased. It is recommended to hold the spread and buy call options [187][188][189].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent price increase is mainly due to the significant rise in spot prices. Given that the March contract is for the post - Chinese New Year period when egg demand is low and prices are weak, the upward space for the 03 contract is relatively limited. However, the egg market is starting to reduce production capacity, and it is expected that the production capacity will likely decline in the next few months [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Information - **Price Information**: The average price in the main production areas today is 3.69 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.95 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin. The national mainstream egg prices mostly continued to rise today, and the national average price of culled chickens also increased to 4.47 yuan/jin [2][4][7]. - **Inventory and Production Capacity**: In December, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month and a 5% year - on - year increase, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying - hen chicks in December was about 39.59 million (accounting for about 50% of the country), with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease. As of January 16, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas decreased by 2.6% week - on - week to 7391 tons, at a historical low [4][5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of January 15, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, up 0.26 yuan from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links both slightly decreased [6]. Trading Logic - The strong performance of spot prices provides some support for the futures market. Considering that the 03 contract is for the post - Chinese New Year period when egg demand is weak, its upward space is limited. The overall egg market is starting to reduce production capacity, and future production capacity is expected to decline [8]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider building long positions in the far - month 5 contracts on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11].

油脂日报 油脂日报 2026 年 01 月 22 日 研究所 农产品研发报告 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | 2026/1/22 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | 各品种地区现货价 | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8084 | 40 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8584 | | | | 8644 | 8474 | | 560 | 0 | 500 | -20 | 390 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8944 | 112 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8914 | | | | 8924 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The spot freight rate is in a downward channel, with the near - month futures market remaining volatile. However, due to geopolitical factors, the expectation of full - scale resumption of the European route in the first half of the year is weak, and the far - month contracts are slightly stronger. The export tax rebate may slow down the decline of spot freight rates but is unlikely to reverse the trend. The market is divided on the intensity of the potential pre - policy rush of shipments, and the subsequent spot booking situation needs to be monitored [6][7]. 3. Summary by Section Container Shipping - Freight Index (European Route) - **Futures Market Data**: On January 22, 2026, for different EC contracts, the closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interests, and open interest change rates are presented. For example, EC2602 closed at 1,707.6, up 0.4 (0.02%), with a trading volume of 748.0 (down 3.86%) and an open interest of 4,681.0 (down 8.32%) [4]. - **Spread Structure**: The spreads between different contracts and their changes are given. For instance, the spread between EC02 - EC04 was 570, down 7.6 [4]. - **Container Freight Rates**: Weekly container freight rates, including SCFIS and SCFI for various routes, show different trends. SCFIS European route was at 1954.19 points, down 0.11% week - on - week and 29.89% year - on - year. SCFI: Shanghai - Europe was at 1676 USD/TEU, down 2.50% week - on - week and 41.21% year - on - year [4]. - **Fuel Costs**: WTI crude oil near - month was at 60.45 dollars/barrel, up 1.68% week - on - week and down 19.52% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month was at 64.62 dollars/barrel, up 1.86% week - on - week and down 17.6% year - on - year [4]. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis**: Spot freight rates are in a downward trend during the off - season. The 04 contract has a discount. The high spot settlement price is due to ship delays in January, and the index is expected to decline. The spot freight rate inflection point has emerged, and the market is divided on the intensity of the potential pre - policy rush of shipments. Geopolitical uncertainties make it difficult for large - scale resumption of the European route in the first half of the year [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see due to many short - term disturbances in the 04 contract and market divergence on the rush of shipments. For arbitrage, it is recommended to hold the 6 - 10 long - short spread [8][9]. Industry News - Trump stated at the Davos World Economic Forum that the US has no intention of using excessive force to acquire Greenland and will not implement the planned European tariff measures on February 1. - The European Parliament's International Trade Committee Chairman announced an indefinite freeze on the review of the EU - US trade agreement, and Denmark rejected Trump's negotiation request regarding Greenland [10][12]. Related Attachments The report includes multiple figures showing various shipping indices and container freight rates, such as SCFIS European and US West lines, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes [13][16][19].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Date: January 22, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,178, up 17 (0.33%), volume 17,654 (down 7,911), open interest 98,101 (up 1,348) [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,276, up 10 (0.19%), volume 292 (down 46), open interest 650 (up 181) [3] - SR05: Closing price 5,158, up 14 (0.27%), volume 221,201 (down 2,149), open interest 477,452 (up 16,093) [3] Spot Market - Prices in different locations: Liuzhou 5,340 (down 10), Kunming 5,160 (down 35), Wuhan 5,630 (unchanged), Nanning 5,310 (down 10), Bayuquan 5,530 (unchanged), Rizhao 5,455 (down 15), Xi'an 5,750 (down 40) [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 182, Kunming 2, Wuhan 472, Nanning 152, Bayuquan 372, Rizhao 297, Xi'an 592 [3] Monthly Spread - SR05 - SR01: Spread -118 (up 4), SR09 - SR05: Spread 20 (up 3), SR09 - SR01: Spread -98 (up 7) [3] Import Profit - Brazil: ICE主力 14.77, premium 0.16, freight 32.00, in - quota price 3,992, out - of - quota price 5,070, spread with Liuzhou 270, spread with Rizhao 385, spread with futures 206 [3] - Thailand: ICE主力 14.77, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4,018, out - of - quota price 5,104, spread with Liuzhou 236, spread with Rizhao 351, spread with futures 172 [3] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - Brazil (Dec second half): Sugarcane crush 2.171 million tons (up 457,000 tons, 26.60% year - on - year), ATR 127.49kg/ton (up 4.16kg/ton), sugar - making ratio 21.24% (down 11.44%), ethanol output 561 million liters (up 73 million liters, 14.91%), sugar output 0.56 million tons (down 0.1 million tons, 14.93%) [5] - Brazil (cumulative to Dec second half, 2025/26 season): Sugarcane crush 600.397 million tons (down 13.992 million tons, 2.28% year - on - year), ATR 138.35kg/ton (down 3.11kg/ton), cumulative sugar - making ratio 50.82% (up 2.66%), cumulative ethanol output 30.838 billion liters (down 1.642 billion liters, 5.06%), cumulative sugar output 40.222 million tons (up 341,000 tons, 0.86%) [6] - China (2025): Dairy product output 29.503 million tons (down 1.1% year - on - year), December output 2.667 million tons (down 1.8% year - on - year); beverage output 179.253 million tons (up 3% year - on - year), December output 13.421 million tons (up 1.1% year - on - year); refined sugar output 16.21 million tons (up 9% year - on - year), December output 3.59 million tons (up 11% year - on - year) [6][8] Logical Analysis - International: Brazilian sugarcane is approaching the end of the harvest season, supply pressure will ease. The market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly output may lead to an unexpected increase, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to low sugar prices and strong commodities, ICE sugar is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [9] - Domestic: China's sugar is in the peak crushing season, and this season's output is likely to increase significantly, adding supply pressure. In 2025, China imported 4.9188 million tons of sugar, an increase of 0.5622 million tons year - on - year, also pressuring the domestic market. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to continue to decline, but the decline space is limited as prices are already low, below the cost line of most domestic sugar mills, and international sugar prices provide support. The May contract is expected to have strong support near the previous low [9] Trading Strategies - Single - side: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. The May contract is expected to be weak in the short term but with limited downward space and strong support near the previous low [10] - Arbitrage: Hold off for now [11] - Options: Hold off for now [12] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly sugar inventory, monthly sugar production, Liuzhou's sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, sugar futures' basis and spreads for different months [15][17][19][21][22][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This season, the high cost of apple warehouse receipts due to a low premium fruit rate strongly supports the apple futures price. As of January 14, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in major producing areas was 7.0466 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 162,500 tons. The de - stocking speed accelerated compared to the previous week but was lower than the same period last year. Considering this year's later Spring Festival, the peak sales period is also postponed, and current demand is acceptable. With low cold - storage inventory, if the normal de - stocking volume is maintained, the later apple supply will be tight. The market previously expected weak apple demand, causing the May contract to decline slightly recently. If apple demand remains normal later, the May contract price is likely to rise [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Spot Price**: The Fuji apple price index was 109.79, up 0.66 from the next working - day's price. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80, and Penglai first and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.93, up 0.13 from the next working - day's price [2]. - **Futures Price**: AP01 was 8210, up 22 from the previous close; AP05 was 9489, up 71; AP10 was 8292, up 35. The spreads AP01 - AP05 was - 1279, down 49; AP05 - AP10 was 1197, up 36; AP10 - AP01 was 82, up 13 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first and second - grade 80 against AP01 was - 10, down 22 from the previous trading day; against AP05 was - 1289, down 71; against AP10 was - 92, down 32 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Market News**: As of January 23, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in major producing areas was 6.8278 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% with a narrowing decline. In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%; the import volume was 3100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality apples remained stable, while the price of low - quality apples declined slightly. The market arrival was stable, and the mainstream market was stable. The mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi, was 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per jin [7]. - **Trading Logic**: High - cost warehouse receipts support the futures price. Low cold - storage inventory and a later Spring Festival may lead to tight supply if the de - stocking volume is normal. The May contract may rise if demand remains normal [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in the May contract, short the October contract on rallies. Go long on the May contract and short the October contract for arbitrage. It is recommended to wait and see for options [8]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, and the spreads of different AP contracts, as well as the arrival volume of apples in wholesale markets, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the cold - storage inventory of apples nationwide, and the cold - storage apple de - stocking volume [10][11][12]

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2026 年 01 月 22 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 757.0 | 752.5 | 4.5 | I01-I05 | -29.5 | -31.5 | 2.0 | | DCE05 | 786.5 | 784.0 | 2.5 | I05-I09 | 17.0 | 17.5 | -0.5 | | DCE09 | 769.5 | 766.5 | 3.0 | I09-I01 | 12.5 | 14.0 | -1.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 790 | 795 | -5 | 858 | 97 | 66 | 83 | | 纽曼粉 | 790 | 795 | -5 | 864 | 104 | 72 | 90 | | 麦克粉 | 792 | 796 | -4 | 875 | 114 | 83 | 100 ...