Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In March, the supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate marginally eased, but due to the low overall inventory - sales ratio, the need for upstream restocking, good downstream demand, and high enthusiasm for price - setting, there is support at the lower end. It is recommended to wait for the macro - environment to stabilize before buying [6]. - Strategies include: unilateral trading (buy when the macro - environment stabilizes), arbitrage (3 - 5 positive spread enters the delivery receipt stage), and options (protective strategy) [6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Demand Analysis 1.1 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In January 2026, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.041 million and 0.945 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 2.5% and 0.1%. New energy passenger vehicle production was 0.938 million, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%, and the retail penetration rate was 38.6%. The cumulative production of power cells from January to February increased by 33% year - on - year, and it is expected to reach the January level in March. In January, factors such as the rush to export ternary batteries due to the decline in export tax rebates, the increase in battery capacity per vehicle, and the surge in heavy - truck sales due to subsidies were more beneficial to power batteries than vehicle sales [13]. - **Global Market**: In 2025, the cumulative sales of global new energy vehicles increased by 19% year - on - year to 20.542 million, compared with a 26% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. European new energy vehicle sales from January to December 2025 increased by 31% year - on - year to 3.887 million, compared with a 3% year - on - year decrease in the same period last year, and a 22% year - on - year increase in January 2026. US new energy vehicle sales from January to December 2025 decreased by 3% year - on - year to 1.495 million, compared with an 11% year - on - year increase in the same period last year, and a 25% year - on - year decrease in January 2026. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to December 2025 were 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103%, compared with an 11% year - on - year increase in the same period last year, and a 101% year - on - year increase in January 2026 [20]. 1.2 Energy Storage Market - In January 2026, the newly commissioned new - type energy storage project installation scale in China was 3.78GW/10.90GWh, a year - on - year increase of 62%/106% and a month - on - month decrease of 84%/86%, with independent energy storage accounting for 90%. The new - type energy storage market started well. Policy support, such as the capacity tariff mechanism for grid - side independent new - type energy storage proposed in Document No. 114 of the National Development and Reform Commission in 2026, has promoted the development of the energy storage market. After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand for restocking was concentratedly released [25]. 1.3 Cell and Cathode Production Scheduling - SMM's January production data showed that battery production decreased by 6.2% month - on - month, with ternary batteries decreasing by 5.5% and lithium iron phosphate batteries decreasing by 5.6%. Power cell production decreased by 5.2% month - on - month, while energy storage cell production increased by 0.8% month - on - month. Ternary cathode material production decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, and lithium iron phosphate production decreased by 1.8% month - on - month. Electrolyte production decreased by 6.4% month - on - month. - SMM's February - March production scheduling data showed that battery production decreased by 11% in February and increased by 23% in March. Ternary cathode material production decreased by 15% in February and increased by 21% in March; lithium iron phosphate production decreased by 11% in February and increased by 15% in March. Electrolyte production decreased by 10% in February and increased by 22% in March. It is expected that each link will increase by 16 - 23% in March [33]. Chapter 2: Supply Analysis 2.1 Smelter Restart and Lithium Carbonate Production Recovery - From January to February, due to the maintenance of some smelters, production decreased month - on - month but still increased by 42% year - on - year. In March, with the restart of production and the ramping up of new production capacity, the monthly production is expected to exceed 100,000 tons, reaching a historical high. Although there was a situation of smelting losses due to the faster decline of lithium prices than ore prices, smelters did not reduce production due to losses because they had sufficient concentrate inventories before the Spring Festival. The production increased by more than 1,600 tons during the Spring Festival compared with before the festival, and increased by 768 tons week - on - week in the first week after the festival, indicating that smelters have restarted production [41]. 2.2 China's Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - The supply of mica ore is insufficient, which affects the production of lithium carbonate from mica [42]. 2.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply Increase in March - In January - February, Chile's lithium salt exports were at a high level. Considering the delay in imports during the Spring Festival, they may arrive at Chinese ports in March - April, including a large amount of lithium sulfate as raw material for lithium carbonate. The supply of lithium carbonate increased significantly in March [49]. Chapter 3: Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Estimation - Not elaborated in detail in the given text, only a graph of China's lithium carbonate supply - demand balance is presented [53]. 3.2 Dynamic Restocking Space in the Middle and Upstream of Lithium Carbonate - Since August 2025, there has been continuous destocking for 7 months, and the domestic inventory - sales ratio has dropped to the level of early 2022, with a tight fundamental situation supporting price increases. Inventory has shifted downstream, and there is still restocking space in the middle and upstream. The smelter inventory has dropped to the lowest level since SMM has data. Since March, the destocking speed has slowed down, with a 720 - ton decrease in inventory this week, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory accumulation [60].

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Focus on the Resumption Rhythm of Secondary Lead Production, Lead Prices May Remain Range - Bound [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - In March, both domestic supply and demand of lead have increased. Considering the continuous inflow of imported crude lead and the relatively high domestic social inventory, the Shanghai lead price is under certain pressure. Attention should be paid to the production profit and resumption of work and production rhythm of domestic secondary lead smelting enterprises. If there is a shortage in secondary lead supply, it may push up the Shanghai lead price. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the lead price is expected to remain range - bound. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for unilateral trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Conditions and Logic 3.1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply Side**: Recently, the processing fee of lead concentrates has not rebounded substantially. It is still difficult to raise the mainstream lead concentrate processing fee in March. The phenomenon of extreme low - price ore grabbing has disappeared. Due to the "reverse invoicing" policy, the cost of lead - containing scrap recyclers has increased. Coupled with the inventory needs of some secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of lead - containing scrap is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - **Smelting Side**: This week, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces monitored by SMM was 56.97%, a 5.5% increase from last week. In Henan, some large - scale smelters have resumed normal production, and a smelter that had maintenance in February has resumed production in March. In Hunan, some smelters have resumed production, but some only have the recovery of crude lead production. The SMM weekly operating rate of secondary lead smelters in four provinces was 27.12%, a 2.6% decline from last week. Affected by environmental protection requirements during the Two Sessions, raw material supply shortages, and weak downstream demand, the resumption of secondary lead smelters is concentrated at the end of March, and the operating rate is expected to fluctuate little next week [4] - **Consumption Side**: This week, the SMM weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 71.68%, a 42.41% increase from last week. After the Lantern Festival, the lead - acid battery market has fully recovered. The terminal consumption of electric bicycle and automobile battery markets is average, but dealers' post - holiday replenishment needs have led to good orders for production enterprises, and some large - scale enterprises' production lines are close to full - capacity operation. The increase in the weekly operating rate will slow down in the future [4] - **Inventory Data**: As of March 5, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 67,200 tons, an increase of nearly 100 tons from February 26 and more than 200 tons from March 2 [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, since the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, focus on the cost and resumption rhythm of domestic secondary lead smelting enterprises. The lead price is expected to remain range - bound, and it is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. For arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [4] 3.1.2 - 3.1.5 - These sections list various data related to lead prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific analysis content is provided in the given text 3.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - **Primary Lead Raw Material Supply**: It involves global lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, import and export profits, domestic lead concentrate supply, and domestic mine operating rates, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [22][23][26] - **Secondary Lead Raw Material Supply**: It includes the price of lead - containing scrap, waste battery prices, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [34][35][38] 3.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - **Global Refined Lead**: It includes global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [42][44][46] - **Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export**: It involves import and export profits, import and export volumes, and net export volumes, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [49] - **Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits**: It includes lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid benefits, and silver benefits, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [51] - **Primary Lead Supply**: It includes the operating rate and production of primary lead smelters and the production of electrolytic lead's main delivery brands, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [55][56] - **Secondary Lead Enterprise Costs and Profits**: It includes the costs and profits of large - scale and small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [58][62] - **Secondary Lead Supply**: It includes the operating rate and production of secondary lead smelters and the production of secondary crude lead, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [67][68] - **Domestic Lead Ingot Supply**: It is composed of domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net exports, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [71][72] 3.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: It includes the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, dealers' finished inventory, export and import volumes, and enterprises' finished inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [78][79] - **Lead Alloys and Their Plates**: It involves lead alloy prices, lead alloy and lead plate import and export, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [81][82] - **Automobiles**: It includes Chinese automobile production, export, production structure, traditional fuel vehicle production, and new energy vehicle production, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [84][85][87] - **Motorcycles, Electricity, and Communications**: It includes motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power engineering (including power grid and power source projects), but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [89][90][92]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The rubber market shows complex trends with various influencing factors such as global economic indicators, industry production and consumption data, and tire inventory levels. Different time - series data on prices, production, and consumption are used to analyze the market situation and provide trading strategies [1][3][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: The price of BR main contract 05 has fluctuated. For example, on 26 - 03 - 09, it was 15050 points, up 395 points or +2.70%. The prices of different brands of butadiene rubber in various regions also vary, like Shandong - based prices for different manufacturers [1]. - **RU/NR Natural Rubber**: RU main contract 05 and NR main contract 05 also show price changes. For instance, on 26 - 03 - 09, RU main 05 was 16785 points, down - 50 points or - 0.30%, and NR main 05 was 13575 points, up +5 points or +0.04% [2]. Important Information - Logistics industry: In 2025, China's social logistics cost - to - GDP ratio dropped to 13.9%, and the logistics industry is undergoing digital and intelligent transformation [2]. - Tire market: The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association predicts that the total U.S. tire shipments in 2026 will increase by 0.7% to 3.389 billion. In 2026, the EU passenger car market sales in January decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 units, with changes in the market share of different types of vehicles [7][27]. - Chemical industry: The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation released a list of products with oversupply risks in 2025. An international investment bank reported that the chemical M&A market showed signs of improvement in 2026, but the industry still faced uncertainties [17][22]. Logical Analysis - **Macroeconomic factors**: Global stock market value, economic surprise index, dollar index, and economic policy uncertainty index all have impacts on the commodity market. For example, in January, the global stock market value decreased to $149.0 trillion, up +14.1% year - on - year, with narrowing growth, which is bearish for commodities [3]. - **Industry - specific factors**: Tire production and inventory levels, butadiene consumption, and rubber production and inventory all affect the rubber market. For example, in February, the domestic butadiene consumption decreased to 55.28 million tons, up +14.1% year - on - year, with marginal increase, slightly bearish for BR [8]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Generally, it is recommended to hold long positions in the BR main 05 contract, with stop - loss levels adjusted according to market conditions. For example, on 26 - 03 - 09, it was recommended to hold long positions in the BR main 05 contract and raise the stop - loss to 14775 points [3]. - **Arbitrage trading**: The strategy of "BR2605 - RU2605 (2 lots vs 1 lot)" is often used, and stop - loss levels are also adjusted. For example, on 26 - 03 - 09, it was recommended to hold the position with a stop - loss raised to - 2180 points [3]. - **Options trading**: It is generally recommended to wait and see [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market trends of L plastic and PP polypropylene are affected by multiple factors including production, inventory, international oil prices, geopolitical situations, and economic indices [1][2][5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - L plastic: The price trends of L plastic vary daily, with some days showing increases and others showing decreases or sideways movements The trading volume and downstream purchasing attitudes also change accordingly [1][5][8] - PP polypropylene: Similar to L plastic, the price of PP polypropylene fluctuates, and the market sentiment is influenced by factors like geopolitical events and production cost changes [1][5][12] Important Information - Logistics industry: The ratio of China's total social logistics cost to GDP dropped to 13.9% in 2025, and the logistics industry is undergoing a digital and intelligent transformation [1] - Chemical industry: In 2026, the total production capacity of the domestic polyethylene market will exceed 4500 tons, and the industry will face structural adjustments The chemical M&A market is expected to recover slightly in 2026 [8][16] - International events: The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has affected the international oil price and the PP market [12][16][20] Logical Analysis - Macroeconomic indicators: Various economic indicators such as the global stock market capitalization, the China Logistics Prosperity Index, the US economic policy uncertainty index, and the dollar index have different impacts on commodities and the chemical industry [2][6][9] - Production and inventory: The production and inventory levels of LLDPE and PP, including daily output, weekly and monthly maintenance losses, and port and warehouse inventories, also affect the market trends [2][6][9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: For most days, the report suggests holding long positions for the L 2605 contract and the PP 2605 contract, with appropriate stop - loss levels set [2][7][9] - Arbitrage trading: The report often suggests holding short positions for the SPC L2605&PP2605 contract, with stop - loss levels adjusted according to market conditions [2][7][9] - Options trading: The report generally advises to wait and see [2][7][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026 due to increased consumption driven by the growth of the automotive industry in emerging and developed economies. However, production growth is lower than expected due to factors such as adverse weather, limited replanting of aging trees, low productivity of small - scale farmers, land - use changes, and the spread of leaf - fall disease [43] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **RU Natural Rubber**: Prices fluctuate daily. For example, on 26 - 03 - 09, the RU主力05 contract was at 16785 points, down 50 points or 0.30%. The price range of different types of rubber also varies, such as the WF at the sales location being 16550 - 16650 yuan/ton [1] - **NR 20 - number Rubber**: Similar to RU, prices change daily. On 26 - 03 - 09, the NR主力05 contract was at 13575 points, up 5 points or 0.04%. The prices of different types of NR - related products also have their own ranges [1] - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: The BR主力05 contract also shows price changes. On 26 - 03 - 09, it was at 15050 points, up 395 points or 2.70%. The prices of different brands and types of BR in different regions also vary [2] Important Information - Logistics cost has become a core consideration for industrial upgrading in China, and the logistics industry is undergoing digital and intelligent transformation [2] - The U.S. tire market is expected to grow in 2026, with an increase in total shipments and growth in both original equipment and replacement tire shipments [6] - Global natural rubber production and consumption are expected to increase in 2026, with prices rising due to factors such as oil price surges and increased demand from tire manufacturers [10] - In 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber production and related areas slightly decreased [14] - In January 2026, Vietnam's natural rubber and mixed rubber exports increased, but exports to China showed different trends [18] - In January 2026, the EU passenger car market sales decreased, and the market share of different types of vehicles changed [28] - In 2025, the U.S. tire imports increased, but imports from China decreased while imports from Thailand increased [33] - In January 2026, Thailand's natural rubber and mixed rubber exports decreased, including exports to China [38] Logical Analysis - Global stock market capitalization, economic indices, and various inventory data have different impacts on rubber prices. For example, the decline in global stock market capitalization in January is bearish for commodities; the increase in the U.S. economic policy uncertainty index is bullish for the energy sector; and changes in inventory levels of different types of rubber and tires also affect market trends [2][11][14] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Different strategies are proposed for different contracts on different days, such as holding, trying to go long, trying to go short, or waiting and observing, with specific stop - loss points set [3][7][11] - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Generally, the strategy is to wait and observe [3][7][11] - **Options**: The strategy is to wait and observe [3][7][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the domestic PVC spot market oscillated downward. The upstream energy prices回调 due to geopolitical easing, and the short - term expectations of bulk commodities and industrial policies were poor. The market returned to the fundamental trend. During the holiday, PVC production enterprises maintained high - load production, supply increased slowly, downstream product enterprises were still in the process of resuming work, mainly for export delivery. The industry inventory increased seasonally, and short - term supply did not decrease. There were uncertainties in domestic and foreign demand, and the spot fundamentals were under pressure. Coupled with the weakening of the cost of the calcium carbide method, the spot price oscillated weakly. The scale of new maintenance of PVC production enterprises this week was extremely small, the market supply remained high, domestic trade demand was recovering, and foreign trade exports were on delivery schedule. However, long - term orders were on hold due to tax rebates. The market inventory still had a trend of further accumulation with the recovery of logistics. The probability of the price of calcium carbide and other materials rebounding from the bottom increased, and the cost bottom support was improving. Fundamentally, the PVC spot market maintained a weak oscillation within a range. Considering the increasing number of subsequent policies, the downward space of the futures price was limited in the short term. It was expected that the ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - type 5 PVC in the East China region would be in the range of 4,600 - 4,780 yuan/ton. Short - term focus should be on the inventory removal speed and overseas price performance. Although the short - term absolute inventory level was high, there was a rush for export delivery, and the inventory would enter a period of rapid removal in March. In the medium and long term, the rush for exports would overdraw future demand, and the profit was good with a high operating rate, so the scale of spring maintenance might be lower than expected. The trading strategy was to go long at low prices without chasing the rise, to wait and see for arbitrage, and to wait and see for over - the - counter trading [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Market situation**: After the holiday, the PVC spot market oscillated downward. The upstream energy prices回调, and the market returned to the fundamental trend. The supply increased slowly, downstream enterprises were resuming work, and the inventory increased seasonally. The cost of the calcium carbide method weakened, and the spot price oscillated weakly [4] - **Outlook**: The market supply remained high, domestic trade demand was recovering, and foreign trade exports were on delivery schedule. The inventory still had a trend of further accumulation. The cost bottom support was improving, and the market would maintain a weak oscillation within a range. The downward space of the futures price was limited in the short term. It was expected that the ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - type 5 PVC in the East China region would be in the range of 4,600 - 4,780 yuan/ton [4] - **Focus points**: Short - term focus on the inventory removal speed and overseas price performance. In March, the inventory would enter a period of rapid removal. In the medium and long term, the rush for exports would overdraw future demand, and the scale of spring maintenance might be lower than expected [4] - **Trading strategy**: Go long at low prices without chasing the rise; wait and see for arbitrage; wait and see for over - the - counter trading [4] Chapter 2: Fundamental Data Core Data Changes - **Production**: The output of PVC production enterprises was 502,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% (1,000 tons) and a year - on - year increase of 9.37% (43,100 tons). Among them, the output of calcium carbide - method enterprises was 351,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 0.04%; the output of ethylene - method enterprises was 151,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.80% and a year - on - year increase of 39.73% [5] - **Inventory**: The sample inventory of the PVC industry was 1,914,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, a month - on - month increase of 20.23% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year increase of 36.46%. The inventory of production enterprises was 561,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%, a month - on - month increase of 65.80% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. The social inventory of PVC was 1,353,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% after the holiday, a year - on - year increase of 58.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 64.42% compared with after the Spring Festival last year [5] - **Load and maintenance**: The loss of maintenance and production reduction this week was 108,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.09% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.01%. The production capacity scale of maintenance enterprises in February was 2.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.09%. The preliminary statistics of maintenance production capacity in March was 1.89 million tons [5] - **Downstream enterprises**: The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week was 17.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 11.36% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year increase of 25.35%. The profile machine - starting rate was 11.30%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year decrease of 25.80%; the pipe machine - starting rate was 13.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year decrease of 28.28%. The available days of raw material inventory of downstream pipe and profile product enterprises increased by 0.2 days to 12.6 days [5] - **Export**: The sample export order volume of PVC production enterprises increased by 2.75% compared with before the holiday to 19.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.58%. The delivery volume increased by 138% compared with before the holiday to 53,800 tons (including the total delivery volume during the holiday), and the volume to be delivered decreased by 11.87% to 227,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 89.91%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, shipping space, expected increase in sea freight, and the fact that enterprises had not announced the signing price for April, the atmosphere of export order - signing during and after the Spring Festival was weak, and the delivery price of PVC in March stabilized after the holiday [5] PVC Supply Analysis - **Enterprise output by process**: The output of calcium carbide - method enterprises was 351,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 0.04%; the output of ethylene - method enterprises was 151,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.80% and a year - on - year increase of 39.73% [5] - **Enterprise output by region**: Not provided in the content - **Enterprise pre - sales by process**: Not provided in the content - **Enterprise capacity utilization by process**: Not provided in the content - **Raw material source weekly operating data**: Not provided in the content - **Maintenance enterprise statistics**: Many enterprises had maintenance plans from February to April, including Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, etc. Some were due to high - cost reasons, and some were routine maintenance [23] - **Production enterprise production increase plans**: Many enterprises had production increase plans, such as Zhejiang Jiajiaxingcheng New Materials, Qilu Petrochemical, etc. The production time varied from 2025 to the long - term future, and some plans were uncertain or on hold [24] PVC Cost Analysis - **Raw material cost comparison over the years**: Not provided in the content - **Raw material gross profit comparison over the years**: Not provided in the content PVC Inventory Analysis - **Production enterprise inventory by process/region**: Not provided in the content - **PVC social inventory/industry inventory**: The sample inventory of the PVC industry was 1,914,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, a month - on - month increase of 20.23% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year increase of 36.46%. The inventory of production enterprises was 561,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%, a month - on - month increase of 65.80% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. The social inventory of PVC was 1,353,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% after the holiday, a year - on - year increase of 58.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 64.42% compared with after the Spring Festival last year [5] PVC Demand Analysis - **Product enterprise operation and inventory**: The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week was 17.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 11.36% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year increase of 25.35%. The profile machine - starting rate was 11.30%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year decrease of 25.80%; the pipe machine - starting rate was 13.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year decrease of 28.28%. The available days of raw material inventory of downstream pipe and profile product enterprises increased by 0.2 days to 12.6 days [5]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Report date: March 6, 2026 [1] - Report type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [1][6] - Data source: Galaxy Futures [7][10] Group 2: Market Review - Futures market: The futures market closed at 2486, up 59 or 2.33% [2] - Spot market: Different regions have different spot prices, such as 1990 yuan/ton in southern Inner Mongolia, 1980 yuan/ton in northern Inner Mongolia, etc [2] Group 3: Important Information - As of March 5, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 38.95%, unchanged from last week [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply side: Coal - to - methanol profit is around 300 - 350 yuan/ton, domestic supply is continuously loose. Foreign market starts to recover, import in March is expected to be about 750,000 tons [4] - Demand side: MTO plant operating rate is low, with some plants shut down or under - loaded [4] - Inventory: Port inventory is decreasing, while inland enterprise inventory fluctuates slightly. With the intensification of the conflict, there are concerns about supply shortages [4] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Operate with caution [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5] - Options: Sell call options [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the urea market and provides a daily analysis for March 6, 2026 [2] - It covers market review, important information, logical analysis, and trading strategies Group 2: Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures fluctuated widely, closing at 1830 (+6/+0.33%) [3] - **Spot Market**: Factory prices were stable, with different price ranges in various regions such as Henan (1810 - 1840 yuan/ton), Shandong (1820 - 1840 yuan/ton), etc. [3] Group 3: Important Information - On March 6, 2026, the daily urea production was 22.05 million tons, a decrease of 0.17 million tons from the previous day but an increase of 2.39 million tons compared to the same period last year [4] - The current operating rate was 93.65%, a rise of 6.27% compared to 87.38% last year [4] Group 4: Logical Analysis - **Regional Market Analysis**: In Shandong, the mainstream factory - quoted prices were firm, with good market sentiment. In Henan, the market sentiment cooled, but the factory - quoted prices remained firm. In the delivery area, the factory prices were stable [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic gas - fired maintenance units returned, and the daily output rose to around 22.3 million tons. The international market price was firm, but the impact on the domestic market was limited due to the lack of new quotas. After the Spring Festival, the compound fertilizer production rate increased, but procurement almost stopped due to high raw material inventory. The urea enterprise inventory started to decline slightly this week [5] - **Market Outlook**: The domestic policy still suppresses the urea price. As agricultural top - dressing ends and industrial demand is tepid, the market atmosphere has weakened rapidly. The short - term futures are expected to remain weak [5] Group 5: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short at high levels [7] - **Arbitrage**: Hold off [7] - **Options**: Hold off [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market has entered a seasonal off - peak period. Although there was a small - scale replenishment before the start of school, the overall boost was limited. After the replenishment, the market entered a downturn again, and the terminal inventory was not cleared. The egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly in March [5][13]. - Considering that the egg consumption off - peak season begins after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall capacity reduction has weakened recently due to the relatively good egg price performance. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.92 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.02 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.72 yuan per catty from last Friday. The national egg market price declined weakly this week. The egg market has entered a seasonal off - peak period, and the overall boost from pre - school replenishment was limited. After the replenishment, the market entered a downturn again, and the terminal inventory was not cleared. The supply increased in February as the amount of culled chickens was not large. In the second half of the week, the low price in the Hebei powder egg producing area stimulated some traders' bottom - fishing sentiment, and the egg price rebounded slightly. In the short term, the egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly in March [5]. - The price of old hens adjusted weakly after falling from a high. At the beginning of the week, when the egg price was high, there was an obvious sentiment of reluctance to cull chickens in the market. As the egg price fell, the mentality of farmers changed. Some farmers' risk - aversion psychology increased, and the willingness to cull chickens increased slightly, while some farmers chose to extend the raising period and wait and see. The price of old hens first fell and then stabilized. Downstream slaughter enterprises mostly purchased according to demand, and as the end of the year approached, some slaughterhouses planned to stop work one after another, and the market demand support was average. Overall, the supply and demand of the old hen market were relatively stable, and the price operated weakly in the fluctuations of the egg price and the pre - festival supply - demand adjustment [5]. 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - At the beginning of this week, due to the superposition of school - opening stockpiling and terminal market centralized replenishment, the demand recovered, and the shipping situation in the producing areas improved significantly compared with the previous period. However, as the stockpiling cycle ended and the egg price fell, the market's cautious psychology intensified, resulting in a decrease in the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, and the overall trading atmosphere became lighter. Near the weekend, as the egg price further declined, there was a certain willingness to replenish at low prices in each link, and the participation enthusiasm was acceptable, which also led to a slight increase in the shipping volume in some producing areas. However, farmers generally had a sentiment of reluctance to sell at low prices, and the enthusiasm for shipping was not high, resulting in a limited increase in the shipping volume in most producing areas. Overall, the shipping volume first increased and then decreased this week. According to Zhuochuang data, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas across the country in the week of March 5 was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. According to the monitoring and statistics of the culling age of culled chickens in key producing areas across the country by Zhuochuang Information, the average culling age of culled chickens in the week of March 5 was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [10]. - According to Zhuochuang data, the inventory of laying hens in production in the country in February was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a 3.4% year - on - year increase, higher than the previous expectation. The monthly output of laying hen chicks of the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in February (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a 5% year - on - year decrease [10]. 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - The feed cost increased this week. As of March 5, the corn price was around 2413 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price was currently 3126 yuan per ton, and the current comprehensive feed cost was about 2627 yuan per ton, which was equivalent to about 2.89 yuan per catty of eggs in terms of feed cost. - The corn price increased and the soybean meal price decreased this week, and the cost per catty of eggs increased slightly month - on - month. The national egg market price declined weakly this week. The egg market has entered a seasonal off - peak period, and the overall boost from pre - school replenishment was limited. After the replenishment, the market entered a downturn again, and the terminal inventory was not cleared. The supply increased in February as the amount of culled chickens was not large. In the second half of the week, the low price in the Hebei powder egg producing area stimulated some traders' bottom - fishing sentiment, and the egg price rebounded slightly. Overall, the average egg price decreased this week, so the profit per catty of eggs also decreased. According to Zhuochuang data, as of May 5, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.29 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous week; on February 27, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.85 yuan per feather, a decrease of 1.27 yuan per catty from the previous week [13]. 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - At the beginning of the week, the school - opening stockpiling had a strong boost, the market trading was good, and the market sales volume increased. After the stockpiling ended, the egg price weakened again, especially the powder eggs weakened more significantly, the large - sized eggs were滞销 to some extent, and the sales volume in the selling areas decreased. At the end of the week, there was no obvious positive boost in the market, and the wait - and - see sentiment in each link was strong. Traders mainly cleared their goods actively. Overall, the demand recovered slowly after the Spring Festival, and the sales volume in the selling areas increased significantly. According to Zhuochuang data, as of the week of February 6, the egg sales volume in the national representative selling areas was 7304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, which was at a medium - high level in the same period over the years [16]. - Due to the large inventory accumulated by farmers during the Spring Festival, as the school - opening stockpiling improved the sales situation, most farmers sold their goods along with the trend. At the end of the week, as the egg price weakened again and the farming losses increased, the sentiment of reluctance to sell appeared, and the sales rhythm began to slow down. Overall, the inventory in the production link decreased month - on - month this week. Similarly, at the beginning of the week, as the school - opening stockpiling was approaching, the stockpiling volume of canteens and group meals increased, and most traders sold their goods along with the trend. After the egg price weakened, the terminal demand decreased, and traders were cautious about purchasing due to concerns about the risk of price drops in the future, and mostly purchased according to sales. Overall, the inventory in the circulation link fluctuated little this week. According to Zhuochuang data, as of the week of March 5, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week. The weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [16]. - The vegetable price index rebounded slightly this week. On March 4, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 106.05. The pork price rebounded slightly. As of February 28, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.78 yuan per kilogram, with little change from the previous week [16]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The previous profit situation was relatively good, and the market's enthusiasm for culling chickens decreased, which slowed down the overall capacity reduction. In terms of culled chickens, according to Zhuochuang data, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas across the country in the week of March 5 was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. According to the monitoring and statistics of the culling age of culled chickens in key producing areas across the country by Zhuochuang Information, the average culling age of culled chickens in the week of March 5 was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. Considering that the egg consumption off - peak season begins after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall capacity reduction has weakened recently due to the relatively good egg price performance. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [17]. - Unilateral: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [17]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [17]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Laying Hen Farming Situation - No specific data analysis content is provided in the given text, only the topics of culling age of chickens and the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas are mentioned [21] 3.2.2 Spread and Basis - The text provides the basis data of January, May, and September contracts, as well as the spread data of 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 contracts from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is made [24][25][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are likely to oscillate within a range. Zhengzhou sugar's short - term trend may be slightly stronger with oscillations, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the short - term, sell put options [3][4]. - The increase in sugar production in India and Thailand this season is likely to be less than the previous market expectations. The global sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season has been lowered, and most global institutions are recently lowering the global sugar production forecast for the 2026/27 season, which supports international sugar prices. However, considering the start of the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season in April and May, there will be greater supply pressure in the market, so international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - In the domestic market, the domestic sugar is currently in the peak crushing period, and the domestic sugar production this season is likely to increase significantly, so there is some pressure on the supply side. However, considering the current low sugar prices and the possible further tightening of import - end policies in the future, the sugar price is expected to be intertwined with long and short factors, with a general trend of bottom - end oscillation. But considering the recent sharp increase in crude oil prices, the domestic sugar price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: International sugar prices are likely to oscillate within a range. Zhengzhou sugar's short - term trend may be slightly stronger with oscillations, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4]. - **Options**: Sell put options in the short - term [4]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - Lowered Production Expectations** - The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar consumption will be 180.07 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar market surplus will be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the previous forecast [8]. - Czarnikow predicts that the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season will be 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 700,000 tons from the previous estimate; the global sugar production will be 184.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous estimate. The production in India is expected to decrease from 32.8 million tons to 30.2 million tons [8]. - Green Pool predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus for the second consecutive year in the 2026/27 season, and the surplus will drop to 156,000 tons, mainly due to the decline in sugar production [8]. - Datagro predicts that there will be a supply gap of 800,000 tons in the global sugar market in the 2025/26 season, and the supply gap will further widen to 2.68 million tons in the 2026/27 season [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar - Crushing Season** - **End of the Crushing Season**: In the second half of January, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 609,000 tons, an increase of 370,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 154.39%. The sugar production was 5,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 36.31% [9]. - **Lower - than - Expected Increase in Production**: As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 601.644 million tons, a decrease of 13.286 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.16%. The cumulative sugar production was 40.24 million tons, an increase of 341,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The increase in sugar production this season may only be 300,000 - 400,000 tons, less than the previously expected increase of 1 million tons [12]. - **Ethanol Production and Sales**: The current ethanol - to - sugar price is about 17.2 cents per pound, and the alcohol - to - gasoline price ratio in the São Paulo region is about 0.724. The ethanol - to - sugar price is significantly higher than the current spot raw - sugar price, so the sugar - making ratio in the new sugar - crushing season starting in April in Brazil is likely to be low. The sugar - making ratio this season is 50.6%. A one - point decrease in the sugar - making ratio will reduce sugar production by 900,000 tons [17]. - **Inventory and Exports**: Brazil exported 2.2297 million tons of sugar in February, a year - on - year increase of 22%. The average daily export volume was 123,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36%. As of February in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar export was 32.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. As of the end of January, the inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.7058 million tons, a decrease of 1.3149 million tons compared to the previous half - month report, and an increase of 462,000 tons compared to the same period last year, which is slightly lower than the same period in recent years [22]. - **Thailand's New Sugar - Crushing Season** - The 2025/26 sugar - crushing season's sugar production is expected to be 11 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 960,000 tons). As of December 2025, the cumulative sugar export was 5.5491 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The export volume has decreased significantly in recent months and has been at a low level compared to the same period in previous years since October. As of February 15, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 63.4728 million tons, a decrease of 4.4602 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of 6.57%. The sugar production was 6.8356 million tons, a decrease of 346,700 tons compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of 4.83%. Green Pool predicts that Thailand's sugar production may decline by 7.5% to 9.9 million tons in the 2026/27 season [25]. - **India's Sugar - Crushing Season** - The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will be 32.4 million tons. After deducting 3.1 million tons for ethanol production, the net sugar production will be 29.3 million tons, an increase of about 12% compared to the previous season [27]. - As of February 28, 2026, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season in India reached 24.63 million tons, an increase of 2.65 million tons compared to the same period last year, with an increase of 12.06%. The net export volume in December was 57,200 tons, which is at the lowest level compared to the same period in recent years. The Indian Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota in March 2026 is 2.25 million tons, the same as in February and a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year [29]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Domestic Sugar Production** - **Guangxi**: As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Guangxi was 33.4306 million tons, a decrease of 3.0971 million tons compared to the same period last year; the production of mixed sugar was 4.029 million tons, a decrease of 788,000 tons compared to the same period last year; the mixed sugar - making rate was 12.05%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In January, the single - month sugar production was 2.0871 million tons, an increase of 21,500 tons compared to the same period last year [35]. - **Yunnan**: As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Yunnan was 8.1447 million tons (compared to 6.7824 million tons in the same period of the previous season), the sugar production was 984,100 tons (compared to 837,100 tons in the same period of the previous season), and the sugar - making rate was 12.08% (compared to 12.34% in the same period of the previous season). In January, the single - month sugar production was 591,800 tons (compared to 510,200 tons in the same period last year) [35]. - **Domestic Sugar Sales and Inventory** - **Guangxi**: As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.5506 million tons, a decrease of 830,300 tons compared to the same period last year; the sales - to - production ratio was 38.49%, a decrease of 10.94 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In January, the single - month sugar sales were 665,800 tons, a decrease of 82,900 tons compared to the same period last year; the industrial inventory was 2.4784 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons compared to the same period last year [38]. - **Yunnan**: As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative sales of new sugar in Yunnan were 532,000 tons (compared to 452,200 tons in the same period last year), the sales - to - production ratio was 54.06% (compared to 54.03% in the same period last year). In January, the single - month sugar sales were 250,600 tons (compared to 185,100 tons in the same period last year), and the industrial inventory was 452,100 tons (compared to 384,800 tons in the same period last year) [38]. - **Sugar Imports** - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 188,500 tons compared to the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative sugar import was 4.9188 million tons, an increase of 562,200 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar import was 1.7635 million tons, an increase of 301,700 tons compared to the same period last year [43]. - In December 2025, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a decrease of 120,800 tons compared to the same period last year. In 2025, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 1.1888 million tons, a decrease of 1.1879 million tons compared to the same period last year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 299,600 tons, a decrease of 339,500 tons compared to the same period last year [43]. - **Import Profits** - The out - of - quota cost of Brazilian sugar is 4,850 yuan, with a profit of 650 yuan; the out - of - quota cost of Thai sugar is 4,750 yuan, with a profit of over 750 yuan. However, due to the fact that the 2026 sugar import license has not been issued, the sugar import volume is low [46].