Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soda ash, near October, with macro uncertainties and holiday stock - up, prices are expected to be stable and strong before the holiday. For trading strategies, it's suggested to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options, and expect a stable - to - strong price trend for the single - side trade [16] - For glass, it's expected to show an oscillating trend before the holiday. The single - side trade may see price oscillations, and it's recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options. There's also a suggestion of a long - glass and short - soda - ash strategy [25] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Core Logic Analysis 1.1 Soda Ash Supply - This week's soda ash production was 74.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (-2%). Both heavy and light soda decreased. The daily production was 10.6 - 10.8 tons. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance in some companies and increased with the recovery of others. Boyuan Phase II was ignited on Friday. Juhua has a maintenance plan in October. Seasonal maintenance is rare, and supply is at a high level. Some manufacturers raised prices this week. The cost increased slightly due to rising coal prices. The theoretical profits of both the soda - ammonia method and the combined - alkali method decreased [8] 1.2 Soda Ash Demand - This week's apparent demand for soda ash was 78.8 tons, a 0.2% week - on - week increase. Heavy - soda demand decreased by 2.8%, and light - soda demand increased by 4.6%. Float glass and photovoltaic glass production were stable, and a 1200 - ton photovoltaic glass production line is planned to be ignited next week. To avoid macro uncertainties, middle and downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday, with a shipment rate of over 100% in all regions, and upstream inventory decreased. The spot price in some areas increased, and the term - week shipment was poor [11] 1.3 Soda Ash Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased, with the factory inventory at 175.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.2 tons. Social inventory increased by 10.7% to 61.5 tons. The inventory of float - glass enterprises increased, with 33% of sample factories having 21.48 days of inventory, a 5.1% week - on - week increase [15] 1.4 Soda Ash Market Outlook - Market performance was weak this week, first rising and then falling. Before the holiday, prices are expected to be stable and strong due to holiday stock - up and macro uncertainties. For trading strategies, it's suggested to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options, and expect a stable - to - strong price trend for the single - side trade [16] 2.1 Glass Supply - Float - glass daily production was 16 tons, stable, with 225 production lines. The weekly average profits of float - glass using different fuels changed. The supply side is not in the centralized cold - repair area, and enterprises are in a wait - and - see state [19] 2.2 Glass Demand - In the Shahe market, demand was weak at the beginning of the week and then strengthened. In the Central China market, some middle - link enterprises stocked up, and most enterprises raised prices. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises increased by 7.8% week - on - week and 8.3% year - on - year. The operating rate of China's LOW - E glass sample enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week [22] 2.3 Glass Market Outlook - Anti - involution sentiment continued, and some manufacturers in Central and North China raised prices, leading to increased purchasing by middle and downstream enterprises. The real - estate completion data showed a marginal improvement. The overall inventory decreased by 1.1% week - on - week. Before the holiday, prices are expected to oscillate. For trading strategies, it's suggested to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options, and expect price oscillations for the single - side trade [25] 2. Weekly Data Tracking Soda Ash Futures and Spot Prices - Heavy - soda spot prices in some regions were stable, while in others, they increased slightly. Futures prices of different contracts also changed, and the basis and spreads between contracts showed various trends [28] Soda Ash Supply Data - Production, operating rates (by process and region), and equipment - maintenance situations were presented. Production decreased week - on - week, and operating rates in some regions and processes changed [64] Soda Ash Profit Data - The costs and profits of different production methods (ammonia - alkali and combined - alkali) changed week - on - week and year - on - year. Glass profits using different fuels also had corresponding changes [85] Soda Ash Inventory Data - Factory inventory decreased week - on - week, and inventory in different regions showed different trends. The average available days of inventory also decreased [93] Soda Ash Import and Export Data - Monthly import and export volumes and their year - on - year and month - on - month changes were presented, as well as import and export data by region [103] Soda Ash Demand Data - Apparent demand, heavy - and light - soda demand, and enterprise backlog days were shown [127] Glass Futures and Spot Prices - Spot prices of glass in different regions changed, and futures prices of different contracts increased. The basis and spreads between contracts also showed various trends [130] Glass Supply Data - Float - glass daily melting volume, operating rate, production - line changes, and loss volume were presented. Production was stable, and some production lines had cold - repair or ignition operations [138] Glass Profit Data - The profits of float - glass using different fuels changed week - on - week and month - on - month [148] Glass Inventory Data - Overall inventory, inventory in Shahe and Hubei, and the average available days of inventory showed different trends [150] Glass Demand Data - Demand structure, apparent demand, production - sales ratio in different regions, glass - deep - processing production, and order days were presented. The production - sales ratio in some regions improved, and deep - processing orders increased [164]

| | | | | 1 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7 œ | 0 | O 1 | 0 1 > | O | 2 | O œ | | | | | 美联储降息预期提高，铜价高位盘整 | | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 | 2 | | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 | 3 | | | 一、 | 行情回顾 | 3 | | | 二、 | 行情展望 | 3 | | | 第二部分 | | 铜矿扰动增加，供应紧张的情况难以缓解 5 | | | 一、 铜精矿供应增量骤降 | | 5 | | | 二、 | | 全球废铜供应错配，国内废铜供应紧张 8 | | | 三、 原料供应不足向冶炼端传导加速 | | 9 | | | 第三部分 | 消费面分析 | 12 | | | 一、 | 国内需求分化 | 12 | | | 二、 | | 新能源对全球消费的带动边际走弱 17 | | | 三 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Precious Metals 10 - Month Report (September 29, 2025)" [4][15][18] - Report Theme: "Multiple factors resonate, and the strength of precious metals remains unchanged" [4] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - The report presents the disk trends of London Gold, London Silver, Shanghai Gold, and Shanghai Silver, but specific analysis of the trends is not provided in the given content [12][14] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - **Employment Data**: The report shows data on US new non - farm employment numbers, new non - farm and ADP employment numbers (3 - month average), labor participation rate, and new non - farm employment structure, which can reflect the situation of the US labor market [24][28] - **Inflation Data**: The US CPI year - on - year and CPI sub - item data are presented, including the month - on - month and year - on - year changes of various sub - items such as food, energy, and core CPI, which help to understand the inflation situation in the United States [33][34] - **Asset Price Data**: The US Manheim used - car price index and Zillow rent index are shown, which can reflect the price trends of related assets [36][37] - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The CME FedWatch data shows the probability of different interest rate ranges at different FOMC meeting dates, reflecting the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions [38] - **Fiscal Situation**: The US government budget balance, fiscal deficit, and fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP are presented, which can reflect the US fiscal situation [43][44] Group 4: Fundamental Factors - **US Debt and Interest Expenses**: The US debt level and interest expenses are presented, which can affect the economic and financial situation [48][49] - **Gold Supply and Demand**: The gold supply and demand balance sheet shows data on gold supply (including mine production, producer net hedging, and recycled gold) and demand (including jewelry manufacturing, investment, and central bank purchases) from 2014 to 2025H1, and their year - on - year changes. For example, in 2025H1, total gold supply was 2,423 tons, a 1% increase year - on - year, and total demand was 2,385 tons, a 13% increase year - on - year [51] - **China's Gold Market**: Data on China's gold production, imports, consumption, and related inventory are presented, which can reflect the situation of the Chinese gold market [55] - **Gold ETF and CFTC Positions**: Data on different regions' gold ETF net flows, gold CFTC positions, and China's silver production, exports, and various inventory data (LBMA, COMEX, SHFE, SGE) are presented [57][59][64] - **Silver in the Photovoltaic Industry**: Forecasts of the world's new photovoltaic installed capacity, China's new photovoltaic cell production, TOPCon battery silver paste consumption trends, and photovoltaic silver powder production are presented, which can reflect the demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry [72][73] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - No specific content about future outlook and strategy recommendations is provided in the given text, only the title is shown [78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market is in the transition from the "policy bottom" to the "market bottom." The macro - expectation is uncertain with the upcoming 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. The market is sensitive to the "anti - involution" policy, but the spot - end fundamentals improvement is limited, and the large mid - stream inventory is a major concern [2][10]. - After the holiday, the supply pressure of soda ash and glass may become apparent. The large mid - stream inventory will suppress prices. It is expected that the prices will decline after the holiday, but the decline will be limited. Attention should be paid to the policy strength, delivery - month warehouse receipts, and the implementation of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe [2][3][5]. - In the long - term, in the context of global liquidity easing and clear anti - involution policies, the structural market will continue. However, one should be vigilant about the accumulation of industrial contradiction risks if the fundamentals do not improve [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis 3.1.1 Market Review - Futures: In September, the futures price of the main soda ash contract first rose and then fell, being stable with a slight upward trend. The price range moved down. The SA2601 - 05 spread showed a reverse - spread trend, and the basis of SA2601 was at a premium [8]. - Spot: Soda ash manufacturers' prices first decreased and then increased. The end - of - month prices of heavy soda ash in different regions showed different changes compared to the beginning of the month [8]. 3.1.2 Policy and Market Transition - The market is in the transition from the "policy bottom" to the "market bottom." The "anti - involution" policy expectation is sensitive, but the price is still anchored by fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipts in the delivery month [10]. 3.1.3 Production and Inventory - Production: In September, the monthly production of soda ash was about 3.263 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The weekly production reached a historical high of 777,000 tons. After the holiday, the supply pressure may be reflected in the upstream inventory [17]. - Inventory: The downstream replenished inventory before the holiday, and the upstream executed previous orders. The soda ash shipment rate was above the balance throughout the month. The factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [30][31]. 3.1.4 Downstream Demand - Photovoltaic glass: By the end of September, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass increased slightly, but the demand weakened. The inventory pressure increased significantly, and there are long - term concerns about demand decline [34][35]. - Light soda ash: The demand showed natural growth, and the inventory turned to destocking at the end of September. The performance of downstream industries was mixed [39]. 3.1.5 Export and Import - Export: Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the soda ash export has recovered. It is expected to maintain a high - level monthly average of over 1.6 million tons in 2025. The export volume in August 2025 was 215,000 tons, an increase of 54,000 tons from the previous month [44]. - Import: The import window is closed, and the import volume is almost zero. In August 2025, the import volume was 0.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.27 million tons from the previous month [44]. 3.1.6 Raw Material Prices and Costs - The spot prices weakened, and enterprise profits narrowed. The theoretical profits of ammonia - soda and combined - soda methods decreased. The prices of raw materials such as动力煤, ammonium chloride, and coke showed different trends [48][49]. 3.2 Glass Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Market Review - Futures: In September, the main glass contract FG2601 showed an upward - trending oscillation. The price fluctuation range widened. The 01 - 05 and 11 - 01 contract spreads declined, and the basis shrank [59]. - Spot: Affected by environmental protection and pre - holiday stocking, the downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and enterprises raised the spot prices [59]. 3.2.2 Supply - The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged at the end of the month. The number of operating production lines was 225, and the operating rate was 75.7%. There was no ignition or cold - repair of production lines in September, but the supply increased slightly [60]. 3.2.3 Demand - In September, the weekly average apparent demand for glass increased by 7.6% month - on - month. The demand in the traditional peak season improved, but the high mid - stream inventory still suppressed prices. The future demand is expected to decline at a slower pace, but it is still weak year - on - year [69]. 3.2.4 Real Estate Policy and Market - The real estate policy focuses on urban renewal. The completion in 2025 is still under pressure. The real estate sales decline narrowed in August, but the construction and completion areas continued to decline year - on - year [75][76]. 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - The glass cost decreased with the fall of soda ash prices, but the fuel prices (coal and petroleum coke) increased, affecting the profit of different fuel - based glass production [80].

尿素月报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 供需偏弱，尿素延续震荡格局 第一部分 前言概要 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【综合分析】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | | | 二、供应分析-新增投产多集中于下半年 7 | | | 三、出口影响逐渐消退 | 13 | | 四、10 | | 月份需求有望释放，宏观层面有望出台刺激政策 15 | | 第三部分 | | 后市展望及策略推荐 21 | 煤化板块研发报告 【综合分析】 10 月份基本面展望，供应端，检修装置陆续回归，新增产能不断释放， 国内供应整体将持续攀升，预计日产将持续维持在 20 万吨以上。需求端来 看，农业需求整体疲软，秋季肥需求收尾，不过东北冬储连续启动，淡储企 业逢低储备，但出口期限临近，关注政策变动。10 月份尿素整体依旧承压 为主。 【策略推荐】 1、单边：中旬之前偏震荡，中旬之后在没有新政策的背景下高空为主 中旬之前，复合肥开工率平稳，秋季肥陆续收尾，农业需求结束，出口落地， 2、套利 跨期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Near - term oil prices are subject to many disturbances. Geopolitical tensions push up prices, but supply - side pressure remains significant. OPEC+ may increase production. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade in the range of $67.8 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Cost support is strong, but demand is weak in the short term due to the approaching holiday and rainy weather. Supply remains high. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and crack spreads are expected to be bearish in the medium term [3][4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are suppressed by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing while demand lacks a clear driver [5][6][7]. - **PX & PTA**: PX is in a tight balance with a reduced de - stocking rate. PTA's supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and inventory accumulation pressure is not large. Prices are mainly affected by the macro - environment and cost [7][9][10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weaker than last year. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - **Short Fiber**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices, but processing fees are expected to remain low [13][15]. - **PR (Bottle Chip)**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices. Processing fees are expected to fluctuate at a low level as demand transitions from peak to off - peak [15][16]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: In the short term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment. In the long term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and prices are expected to decline [18][19][20]. - **Propylene**: Supply is increasing, and the market is overall loose. Downstream product profits are poor. It is recommended to short on rebounds [20][21][22]. - **Plastic PP**: Supply is expected to face new capacity releases, and demand in October is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see during the holiday and short on rebounds in the medium term [22][23][24]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is currently in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term trading focuses on weak reality, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is positive [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions lightly during the holiday [26][27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Before the holiday, prices are expected to remain stable. After the holiday, the market may be weak. It is recommended to hold light or no positions during the holiday [30][31][32]. - **Glass**: Before the holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. Demand is relatively weak, and the sustainability of the upward trend needs attention [33][34][35]. - **Log**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [35][36][38]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [39][40]. - **Pulp**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak, but the market is stabilizing. It is recommended to buy on dips [40][41][42]. - **Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber**: It is recommended to short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [43][44][45]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BR 11 contract should be observed after hitting the stop - loss. Hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501 [47][48]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 rose $0.74 to $65.72 per barrel (+1.14%); Brent2511 rose $0.71 to $70.13 per barrel (+1.02%); SC2511 rose to 495 yuan per barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Iraq's northern oil pipeline resumes operation; OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day; the US asks India to reduce Russian oil purchases [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect wide - range fluctuations, with the intraday range of the Brent main contract at $67.8 - 70 per barrel; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracks are weak; options: wait and see [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3463 points at night (+0.35%); BU2512 closed at 3425 points at night (+0.50%). Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [3]. - **Related News**: Demand in different regions is different, and crude oil price increases support asphalt prices, but some refineries are still accumulating inventory [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect range - bound fluctuations; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to weaken; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 closed at 2972 (+1.99%); LU11 closed at 3525 (+1.59%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [5]. - **Related News**: Nigerian refinery lays off workers; Russian refinery is attacked [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and the LU near - month contract will fluctuate with crude oil; arbitrage: consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [6][7]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 closed at 6690 at night (+0.51%); TA601 closed at 4670 at night (+0.52%). PX spot prices fell, and PTA spot trading was weak [7]. - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates increased, and polyester operating rates decreased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [10][11]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 closed at 4238 at night (+0.59%). Spot and futures basis are given [11]. - **Related News**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol decreased, and downstream sales were poor [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect weak fluctuations; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [12][13]. Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 closed at 6350 at night (+0.38%). Spot prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Related News**: Downstream sales were poor [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 closed at 5820 at night (+0.31%). Spot trading was light [15]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip operating rate decreased, and polyester operating rates decreased slightly [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [16][18]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5921 at night (+0.30%); EB2511 closed at 6969 at night (+0.29%). Spot prices in different regions are given [18]. - **Related News**: The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: long pure benzene and short styrene; options: wait and see [19][20]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 closed at 6396 at night (+0.49%). Spot prices in different regions are given [20][21]. - **Related News**: The propylene operating rate increased [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short on rebounds; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell put options [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: Spot prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions showed different trends [22][23]. - **Related News**: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: wait and see during the holiday, and short on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [23][24]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices of caustic soda in different regions changed [24]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term focus on weak reality, medium - term focus on long opportunities; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [25][26]. PVC - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices fluctuated slightly, and trading was light [27]. - **Related News**: The price of calcium carbide decreased [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions lightly during the holiday; arbitrage: conduct 1 - 5 and 3 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage; options: wait and see [27][28][30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [30]. - **Related News**: Soda ash production reached a historical high, and inventory decreased [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday. Hold light or no positions during the holiday; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [31][32][33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [33]. - **Related News**: Glass production increased, inventory decreased, and profits improved slightly [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to fluctuate before the holiday. Pay attention to demand and the sustainability of the upward trend; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [34][35]. Log - **Market Review**: Spot prices of logs in different regions are stable, and the 11 - month contract fluctuated slightly [35]. - **Related News**: The number of incoming log ships increased, and inventory decreased [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the LG2511 contract on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell LG2511 - C - 820 [38][39]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market Review**: Spot prices of offset printing paper are stable, and raw material prices changed slightly [39]. - **Related News**: Production and inventory of offset printing paper increased [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the 01 contract; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell OP2601 - C - 4500 [40]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp decreased, and spot prices of different pulp types changed [40][41]. - **Related News**: A new pulp project was put into operation [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: wait and see and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread; options: wait and see [42][43]. Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Futures prices of natural rubber and No. 20 rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [43][44]. - **Related News**: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract; arbitrage: conduct the spread trade of BR2511 - RU2601; options: wait and see [45][46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The futures price of butadiene rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [47]. - **Related News**: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: observe after hitting the stop - loss; arbitrage: hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501; options: wait and see [48][49].

农产品板块研发报告 鸡蛋 10 月报 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、基本面情况 | | 3 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 8 | | | 免责声明 | | 8 | 最近市场走货开始有所放缓，个别地区仍有一定节日备货影响走货尚 可。根据当前基本面来看，短期蛋价反弹主要受双节备货影响，但近期随着 节日备货的结束，鸡蛋现货价格开始有所回落。 期货方面来看，虽然供应端压力较大且现货价格已经开始下跌，但是当 前整个期货近月价格相对偏低且持仓量仍然较大，预计临近限仓盘面波动较 大，期货价格不一定跟随现货价格下跌。 【策略推荐】 2025 年 9 月 26 节前备货进入尾声 蛋价或将承压走弱 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 9 月鸡蛋现货价格走势偏强，主产区均价最高涨至 3.81 元/斤附近后随 着旺季备货逐渐进入尾声开始有企稳迹象，主销区涨至 3.82 元/斤附近后有 所稳定 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | | 二、新季冷库苹果预计入库量高 | | 3 | | | 三、新季苹果陕西地区果径偏小 | | 4 | | | 四、旧季冷库苹果库存低 | | 新季苹果需求尚可 5 | | | 五、进出口情况 | | 7 | | | 六、替代品情况 | | 8 | | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 8 | | | 免责声明 | | | 10 | 农产品板块研发报告 苹果月报 2025 年 9 月 26 日 新果即将上市 果价或前高后低 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 期货方面，9 月份苹果期货主连价格大部分时间在 8200-8400 元/吨的 价格区间震荡，期间虽然期货价格曾一度跌至 8000 元/吨附近，但是之后 很快被拉回到震荡区间。苹果期货维持在高位震荡的主要原因是今年苹果果 径偏小优果率预计较差且预计收购价格偏高， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, the Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to high cotton production in Xinjiang, low purchasing enthusiasm from ginneries, and general downstream demand [7][8][51]. - Globally, the cotton production and demand in the 2025/26 season have both increased, and the ending stocks have decreased slightly, presenting a relatively neutral outlook [13][51]. - For US cotton, the production is relatively stable, but the signing progress is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate [16][51]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, the cotton futures prices were weak. The supply side saw a significant increase in cotton production compared to previous years, with a general purchase expectation of 6 - 6.4 yuan/kg, exerting hedging pressure on the market. The downstream demand was average, and the peak season was expected to remain at the current level. The fundamentals of US cotton changed little, and it was expected to fluctuate [6][12]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is expected to be average, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [7]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak and volatile. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the preface summary, in September, the cotton futures prices were weak. The supply side had high production, and the demand side was average. The US cotton fundamentals changed little and were expected to fluctuate [12]. 3.2.2 International Market - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by 230,000 tons to 25.622 million tons compared to the previous month, with China increasing by 220,000 tons and India by 110,000 tons. The demand also increased, and the ending stocks decreased slightly [13][14]. 3.2.3 United States - The new US cotton has a good quality rate, but the signing progress is at a low level in the same period over the years. The 2025/26 production is expected to be 2.87 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons compared to the previous year. As of September 14, the cumulative signing volume was 901,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.61%, and the cumulative shipment volume was 104,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84.96%. China's cumulative signing volume was 104,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 84.96%, and the cumulative shipment was 0 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 100%. The drought situation has improved [16]. 3.2.4 Other Countries - In India, the cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season decreased by 312,000 hectares compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was higher than normal. In Brazil, as of September 13, the cotton harvesting progress was 96.6%, and the processing progress was 36%. The new flower exports declined in the short term, and the quality indicators such as micronaire value and strength declined compared to last year [21][23]. 3.2.5 Domestic Market - Supply side: As of mid - September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 30,580 tons from the previous month. In August 2025, 72,700 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 77,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 585,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.7%. The domestic - foreign price difference was around 1,400 yuan/ton. - Demand side: The peak season demand was average, and the boost to the market was limited. As of mid - September, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 862,100 tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons from the previous month. The yarn inventory was 25.43 days, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.56 days. In August, domestic demand was average, and the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The textile and clothing exports were average. From January to August 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 197.274 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.25%. - New crop: The national cotton planting area in 2025 was adjusted up by 2.71 million mu to 47.306 million mu, and the total output was adjusted up to 7.415 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The market focus has shifted to the new cotton purchase price, and the purchase price is around 6 - 6.3 yuan/kg [26][28][29]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - International: The global cotton production and demand have increased, but are still at a medium level over the years, and the ending stocks have decreased. The US cotton production is relatively stable, but the demand is not optimistic, and the price is expected to fluctuate [51]. - Domestic: In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is average, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [51]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak and volatile. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat futures market lacks a strong upward driver and will maintain a volatile trend, but the overall strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - In the later period, the combined inventory of palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia will remain below the 5 - year average, and the stable spot prices in the producing areas will support palm oil prices [4][53]. - Currently, domestic soybean oil is slightly destocking, and it may continue to do so slightly in the future, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight [4][53]. - The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. With insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited imports, rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking, which will support its price [4][53]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, there was significant differentiation among oils and fats. The rapeseed oil 01 contract rose nearly 4%, soybean oil fell more than 2%, and palm oil fell nearly 1% [3][10]. - Affected by policies such as the US renewable fuel policy, the Fed's interest - rate cut, and Argentina's export tariff policy, the oil and fat market fluctuated. The spreads OI - Y01 and OI - P01 continued to strengthen, with OI - Y01 reaching a high of around 2000 [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In the short term, the oil and fat futures market will maintain a volatile trend, but the overall strategy is to buy on dips. The combined inventory of palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia will remain below the 5 - year average, and stable spot prices in the producing areas will support palm oil prices [4]. - Domestic soybean oil is slightly destocking and may continue to do so slightly, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and it will continue to destock marginally, which will support its price [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: In the short term, the oil and fat market is volatile. Consider buying on dips in batches [5]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a positive spread arbitrage strategy for OI 1 - 5, but do not chase high prices [5]. - Options: Buy call options or sell put options [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the previous market review, in September, there was significant differentiation among oils and fats, and the market fluctuated due to policy factors. The spreads OI - Y01 and OI - P01 continued to strengthen [3][10]. 3.2.2 Malaysia's Palm Oil Inventory Accumulated in August, Indonesia's Production Surged in July, and the Overall Inventory Remains Tight - Malaysia: In August, the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil reached 220 tons, a 4% month - on - month increase. Production increased by 2% to 186 tons, exports decreased to 132 tons, and apparent consumption reached a record high. It is expected that the production increase in September may decline, with an estimated output of about 177 tons, slightly lower than the 5 - year average. Exports in September are expected to be slightly higher than the 5 - year average [15]. - Indonesia: In July, Indonesia's palm oil production reached 560 tons, a 6% increase, and exports were 354 tons. The inventory slightly increased to 257 tons, remaining at a historically low level. As of July, the cumulative production from January to July was 3349 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. It is expected that the annual production increase will exceed 200 tons [23]. 3.2.3 The International Soybean Oil Price Declined, and India Made Large - Scale Soybean Oil Purchases - Import: As of August, India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year totaled 1238 tons, an 8% year - on - year decrease. Palm oil imports decreased by 19%, soybean oil imports reached a record high of 389 tons, a 43% year - on - year increase, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 25% [31]. - Inventory: In August, India's port inventory increased to 97 tons. Palm oil inventory increased from 45 to 54 tons, while sunflower oil and soybean oil inventories decreased to around 21 tons [31]. - Price: Recently, the increase in India's domestic edible oil prices has slowed down. Currently, India mainly has import and refining profits for sunflower oil. Due to Argentina's cancellation of soybean export tariffs, the international soybean oil price declined, and the soybean - palm oil spread narrowed to below 0 dollars. It is rumored that India purchased 30 tons of Argentine soybean oil [31]. 3.2.4 Domestic Oils and Fats May Gradually Destock, and the Basis of Oils and Fats Will Increase Steadily - Palm oil: As of September 19, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 58.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.64 tons. The import profit was negative, but the purchase enthusiasm increased, and the far - month purchases were relatively large. It is expected that the combined inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil will remain below the 5 - year average, and one can consider buying the 01 contract on dips [35][37]. - Soybean oil: In August, soybean crushing was about 899 tons, and soybean oil production was about 171 tons. In September and October, soybean arrivals and crushing are expected to decrease. As of September 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 123.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease. The soybean oil market will maintain a volatile trend, and one can consider buying on dips [38]. - Rapeseed oil: In August, rapeseed crushing was about 22 tons, and rapeseed oil production was about 10 tons. As of September 19, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 58.61 tons, a decrease. Due to insufficient rapeseed supply, rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking. One can consider buying on dips on a single - side basis and maintaining a positive spread arbitrage strategy for the 1 - 5 spread, but not chasing high prices [39][40]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - It is expected that Malaysian palm oil production may decline in September, and exports may increase slightly. The combined inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil will remain below the 5 - year average, and one can consider buying the 01 contract on dips [53]. - Domestic soybean oil will continue to slightly destock, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight. One can consider buying on dips when the price is low [53]. - Domestic rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking. One can consider buying on dips on a single - side basis and maintaining a positive spread arbitrage strategy for the 1 - 5 spread, but not chasing high prices [53].