Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the approaching Spring Festival, most markets are affected by the holiday atmosphere, with trading volume decreasing and market sentiment showing different trends. Some markets are expected to maintain a narrow - range shock, while others are affected by factors such as supply - demand changes, policy expectations, and international events, showing different price trends and investment opportunities [19][20][23]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Before the Spring Festival, it maintains a narrow - range shock. The main indexes are expected to show a shock - strong trend. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [17][19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Before the Spring Festival, trading enthusiasm declines. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the phased long T - contract inter - delivery spread trading [21][22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The monthly supply - demand report has limited bullish effects, and the market runs in a shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [24][25][26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices fall, and domestic prices are expected to be slightly stronger. It is recommended to trade in the range of low - buying and high - selling for domestic Zhengzhou sugar contracts, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [26][27][30]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oils maintain a wide - range shock. It is recommended to short on rallies lightly or go long on dips after the correction, consider the y59 reverse arbitrage on rallies, and wait and see for options [30][31][33]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the futures price runs in a high - level shock. It is recommended to have a long - biased view on the outer - market 03 corn after stabilization, short the 03 corn lightly on rallies, and widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips [34][35][37]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter pressure increases, and the spot price continues to decline. It is recommended to wait and see and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [37][38][39]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price runs in a narrow - range shock. It is recommended to short the 03 peanuts lightly on rallies and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: As the pre - festival stocking nears the end, the egg price falls. It is recommended to short the June contract on rallies and wait and see for arbitrage and options [42][43][44]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the price is firm. It is recommended to go long on the May contract on dips, short the October contract on rallies, and conduct long May and short October arbitrage [46][47][48]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals change little, and the cotton price is supported. It is recommended that the US cotton is expected to run weakly in a shock in the short - term, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to run in a range. It is recommended to hold a light position during the Spring Festival and wait and see for arbitrage and options [49][50][51]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The demand continues to decline, and the steel price runs in a shock. It is recommended to follow the market sentiment and run in a shock, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies, continue to hold the short coil - screw spread, and wait and see for options [52][53][54]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Mines are on holiday one after another, and the spot trading becomes cold. It is recommended to trade in bands and go long lightly on dips, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [54][55][57]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals continue to weaken, and the ore price runs weakly. It is recommended to run weakly and wait and see for arbitrage and options [57][58][59]. - **Ferroalloys**: As the long holiday approaches, it is recommended to take profits on long positions on rallies. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options for options and wait and see for arbitrage [60][61][63]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market is waiting for the non - farm payroll data, and the prices fluctuate in a narrow range. Conservative investors are recommended to wait and see and hold an empty position during the holiday. Aggressive investors can hold long positions on Shanghai gold against the 20 - day moving average and Shanghai silver against the low point on Monday this week, with a light position. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [62][63][64]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Before the non - farm payroll data is announced, the precious metal market's volatility narrows. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish on platinum and palladium, buy on dips, conduct long platinum and short palladium arbitrage, and wait and see for options [66][67][68]. - **Copper**: As the Spring Festival approaches, it is recommended to operate cautiously. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [68][69][70]. - **Alumina**: Pay attention to the expected marginal change in production capacity. It is recommended to be cautious in participating in short - term shocks, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [71][72][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There is a wait - and - see sentiment in the market before the non - farm payroll data. It is recommended to be in a shock before the festival and wait and see for arbitrage and options [75][76][77]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It runs in a shock following the outer - market aluminum price. It is recommended to be in a shock before the festival and wait and see for arbitrage and options [78][79][80]. - **Zinc**: It is recommended to wait and see. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [80][81][82]. - **Lead**: It runs in a range shock. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [82][83][84]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian quota is low, and it is recommended to maintain a long - biased view on dips. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options for options and wait and see for arbitrage [86][87][88]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, it runs following the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long on stabilization, and wait and see for arbitrage [89][90]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The technical side is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended to participate after the price stabilizes, and the price operation range can refer to (8200, 9100) [91][92]. - **Polysilicon**: The industry self - discipline and price - support expectations rise again. It is recommended to wait for low - price opportunities on the disk, buy call options opportunistically, and wait and see for arbitrage [93][94]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is good, but the market is light before the festival. It is recommended to have a long - biased view, sell out - of - the - money put options for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [94][95][99]. - **Tin**: The tin price may run strongly in a shock. It is recommended to control the position before the festival and wait and see for options [100][101][103]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The price increase expectation is loose. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and conduct 6 - 10 positive arbitrage rolling operations [104][105][106]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Pay attention to supply risks. It is recommended to run strongly in a shock and wait and see for arbitrage and options [107][108][109]. - **Asphalt**: The trading is light, and the inventory is at a low level. The spot prices in various regions are basically stable. It is recommended to be in a high - level shock, go long on the BU2606 contract on dips, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [109][110][111]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur spot trading slows down, and the geopolitical drive continues. It is recommended to run strongly in a shock, pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations, take profits on the FU59 positive arbitrage on rallies, pay attention to the LU near - month reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options [111][112][113]. - **LPG**: It is still necessary to pay attention to geopolitical risks. It is recommended to run in a wide - range shock and wait and see for arbitrage and options [113][114][115]. - **Natural Gas**: The risk sentiment at both supply and demand ends eases to a certain extent. It is recommended to continue to hold short positions in the TTF and JKM third - quarter contracts and the HH second - quarter contract, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [116][117][119]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester production cuts are gradually realized, and the weaving sales gradually stop. It is recommended to run in a shock and wait and see for arbitrage and options [120][121]. - **BZ & EB**: The supply returns, and the basis falls. It is recommended to run in a shock and wait and see for arbitrage and options [122][123][124]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. It is recommended to run in a shock and wait and see for arbitrage and options [124][125][126]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber factories reduce production as planned. It is recommended to run in a shock and wait and see for arbitrage and options [126][127]. - **Bottle Chips**: The production decreases, and the supply shrinks. It is recommended to run in a shock and wait and see for arbitrage and options [128][129]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand support is acceptable. It is recommended to run in a shock and wait and see for arbitrage and options [130][131]. - **Plastic PP**: The US manufacturing PMI rises above the boom - bust line. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L 2605 contract and set the stop - loss at the recent low of 6720 points. For the PP 2605 contract, try to go long in small amounts and set the stop - loss at the recent low of 6620 points. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [132][133][134]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price strengthens. It is recommended to run in a shock [134][135][136]. - **PVC**: It runs mainly in a shock. It is recommended to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [137][138][140]. - **Soda Ash**: The price runs weakly in a shock. It is recommended to short on rallies before the festival, conduct short glass and long soda ash arbitrage before the festival, and sell call options [142][143]. - **Glass**: The price runs weakly in a shock. It is recommended to short on rallies before the festival, conduct short glass and long soda ash arbitrage before the festival, and sell call options [144][145][146]. - **Methanol**: It runs in a range shock. It is recommended to continue to run in a shock and wait and see for arbitrage and options [146][147][149]. - **Urea**: It runs weakly in a shock. It is recommended to go long on dips, pay attention to the 59 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on the correction [150][151][152]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price continues to run in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to operate in the range. Aggressive investors can lay out long positions in small amounts against the previous low. It is recommended to sell the SP2605 - P - 5150 option and wait and see for arbitrage [154][155][158]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: As the Spring Festival approaches, it is in the off - season of demand, and the market is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, sell the OP2604 - C - 4200 option, and wait and see for arbitrage [158][159][160]. - **Logs**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the market is dull. It is recommended to wait and see, take profits on the 3 - 5 reverse arbitrage and wait and see, and wait and see for options [160][161][163]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The increment of road freight slows down. It is recommended to hold long positions in the RU 05 contract and set the stop - loss at the recent low of 16215 points. It is recommended to wait and see for the NR 04 contract. It is recommended to reduce and wait and see for the NR2605 - RU2605 arbitrage, hold the RU2605 - RU2609 arbitrage and set the stop - loss at the recent low of +80 points. It is recommended to wait and see for options [164][165][167]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The increment of road freight slows down. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR 04 contract and set the stop - loss at the recent low of 12585 points. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [168][169][171].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the US soybean futures market showed a significant upward trend, mainly driven by the biodiesel policy and improved export prospects due to macro - changes. However, the US soybean export sales data decreased, and the growth rate of demand slowed down. The subsequent market impact mainly depends on the Argentine weather and the US monthly supply - demand report [5][13]. - The downward pressure on the domestic soybean meal futures increased due to improved subsequent supply and high previous crushing profits. The soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decline, but the current price has already reflected the subsequent de - stocking, so the impact is relatively limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may be relatively large [6]. - The domestic rapeseed meal also showed a downward trend this week, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is mainly affected by soybean meal. As the subsequent soybean meal spot may gradually tighten, the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be relatively good. The supply of rapeseed meal has gradually improved recently [6][22]. - The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, expanding the MRM spread for arbitrage, and selling a wide - straddle strategy for options [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - US soybean futures rose significantly this week, mainly influenced by the biodiesel policy and macro - changes. The fundamentals of the US soybean market remained stable, with a decrease in exports and stable crushing. The Brazilian price support still exists, and the Argentine new - crop supply decreased due to weather. The main influencing factor for the US soybean market may be the Argentine weather, and the export increment space is limited [5]. - The downward pressure on domestic soybean meal futures increased due to improved supply and high previous crushing profits. The subsequent soybean arrivals will gradually decrease, and the soybean meal inventory may decline. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may be relatively large. The domestic rapeseed meal also declined, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is mainly affected by soybean meal, and the subsequent supply has improved [6]. Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy (views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [7] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Macro Impact Increases, US Soybeans Rise Significantly - The US soybean futures rose significantly this week, driven by macro and biodiesel factors. The US Treasury's tax guidance on biodiesel and improved export prospects due to macro - changes led to the upward movement. The US soybean export sales data decreased, and the growth rate of demand slowed down. The subsequent market impact mainly comes from the limited short - term export growth and the upcoming US monthly supply - demand report [13]. 2. Brazilian Quotes Remain Firm, Argentine Weather Still Causes Disturbance - Brazilian quotes decreased this week but still remained at a high level. The old - crop pressure in Brazil is relatively limited, while the new - crop market pressure is obvious. The Brazilian export shipment speed has accelerated. The main influencing factor in the Argentine market is the weather, and the yield is subject to uncertainty [16]. 3. Futures Pressure Increases, Trading Remains Strong - The domestic soybean meal futures showed a downward trend this week due to the repair of crushing profits and reduced concerns about soybean supply shortages. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, especially the forward basis trading. The market is expected to see a slight de - stocking of soybean meal this week. The futures market is complex, and it is likely to show a more volatile trend [19]. 4. Supply Pressure Increases, Rapeseed Meal Declines Overall - The domestic rapeseed meal futures also declined this week, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread continued to widen. The decline was affected by both soybean meal and improved subsequent supply. The demand for rapeseed meal is average, and the supply has improved recently. The international rapeseed market provides some support to the price of rapeseed meal, but the overall supply is relatively loose [22] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Changes International Market - The data shows the US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit, as well as the Brazilian and Argentine monthly export and crushing data [26][29]. Foreign Premium - The data presents the FOB prices of the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as the CNF price of rapeseed [32]. Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - The data includes the US dollar exchange rates against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso, and the shipping freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China [37][44]. Supply - The data shows the soybean and rapeseed import volumes and weekly crushing volumes [50]. Demand Side - The data presents the soybean meal and rapeseed meal pick - up volumes [53]. Inventory - The data shows the soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventories [57]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall pig price showed a downward trend mainly due to the increasing pressure on breeding farms to sell pigs. The subsequent selling rhythm may slow down, and the downward space for the overall spot price is expected to be limited. The pig futures price still has some downward pressure, but it is expected to mainly fluctuate slightly [5][6]. - The trading strategy suggests a mainly oscillating operation for single - side trading, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and a strategy of selling a wide straddle for options [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Pig price: The overall pig price decreased this week. The selling pressure increased significantly, with large - scale enterprises accelerating the selling rhythm, ordinary farmers becoming more active in selling, limited entry into secondary fattening, and a relatively large number of large - weight pigs. The selling weight decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The supply pressure was relatively large. The demand side showed a slight increase in slaughter volume, a decrease in frozen product inventory, and an increase in apparent demand and fresh - sales rate, but the overall pig price still declined [5]. - Futures: The pig futures price still had downward pressure, mainly affected by the spot market. However, as the downward pressure on the spot price has been fully reflected and the inventory pressure has improved, the downward rhythm of the spot price may slow down, providing some support for the futures market, but the overall direction is still under pressure, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate slightly [6]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Mainly oscillating operation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Sell a wide straddle strategy [8] 2. Data Charts & Logic Analysis Pig Price - Pig prices across the country showed a downward trend this week. The selling pressure continued to increase significantly. The previous selling completion was average, and the current selling has accelerated. The market supply was relatively loose, and the overall pig price was under obvious pressure [11][13]. Selling and Consumption Changes - Selling: The pig selling volume increased rapidly this week. According to data from third - party institutions, the average daily selling volume of large - scale enterprises in February is expected to increase significantly month - on - month. Secondary fattening was relatively stable, and ordinary farmers accelerated the selling rhythm. The selling weight decreased but remained at a high level. The supply was relatively loose, and it is expected that the subsequent selling pressure may improve [14]. - Consumption: The pig slaughter volume increased month - on - month, and the frozen product inventory showed a downward trend. The apparent demand for pigs increased, and the fresh - sales rate increased. However, the actual demand was average as the pig price declined [14]. Breeding Profit - The pig breeding profit showed a downward trend. As of the week of February 6, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 38.09 yuan per head, a decrease of 63.19 yuan per head compared with last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 91.42 yuan per head, a decrease of 32.71 yuan per head compared with last week [24]. Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglets: The price of 7 - kg piglets was 366 yuan per head, an increase of 9 yuan per head compared with last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 468 yuan per head, a decrease of 1 yuan per head compared with last week. The enthusiasm of breeding farms to replenish piglets was basically stable. - Sows: The sow price was 1557 yuan per head, remaining flat compared with last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs increased, and the enthusiasm for culling sows was average. The sow replenishment remained stable [31]. Reproductive Sow Inventory - According to the Yongyi data, the reproductive sow inventory increased slightly month - on - month in December, with the comprehensive sample increasing by 0.54% and large - scale enterprises increasing by 0.36%. According to the Ganglian data, the reproductive sow inventory decreased by 0.22% month - on - month in December, with large - scale enterprises decreasing by 0.18% and small and medium - sized farmers decreasing by 1.19%. Overall, due to the general number of culled sows, the inventory is expected to increase slightly [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton fundamentals remain strong with an upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 and the upcoming textile projects in Xinjiang are factors influencing the market [6]. - In the short - term, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range. The trading strategies suggest building long positions on dips for the unilateral trade, and adopting a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts of cotton all decreased by 70, while the CY05 and CY09 contracts of cotton yarn decreased by 45 and 25 respectively. The CY01 contract had no trading volume. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the open interest of the CF01 contract increased by 84, and that of the CF05 contract decreased by 270 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,967 yuan/ton, down 45; the CY IndexC32S price was 21,455 yuan, unchanged. The prices of other varieties such as Cot A, FCY IndexC33S, etc., also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spreads**: In the cotton and cotton yarn markets, there were changes in cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530, unchanged; the CY05 - CF05 spread was 5,750, up 25 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of January 22, 2026, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton was 55.5%. As of February 6, the planting was 88.1% complete, up 9.5 percentage points month - on - month, 0.7 percentage points faster year - on - year, and 3.6 percentage points slower than the three - year average. The planting progress in Mato Grosso and Bahia is in the middle - late stage [4]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.9894 million tons, accounting for 98.7% of the estimated annual US cotton output, 6% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 98.6%, down 5% year - on - year; that of Pima cotton was 99.5%, 17% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 78.1%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.8%, 1.2 percentage points higher year - on - year [5]. Trading Logic - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2025 was 38.87 million mu. It is expected to decrease by 2.66 million mu to 36.21 million mu in 2026, a reduction of 7%. Some large - scale planters have received relevant notices. Several large textile projects are expected to be launched in Xinjiang this year, which is beneficial to cotton consumption [6]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will trade in a range in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton will also trade in a range. It is advisable to build long positions on dips. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has become quiet, with more spinning mills on holiday. Yarn prices are generally stable, and some spinning mills have slightly increased their quotes. - The full - cotton grey fabric market is getting more festive, and the market remains sluggish. Traders are gradually returning home. Some weaving mills report that post - holiday orders are fewer than in previous years. Weaving mills continue to stop production and reduce loads, and there is expected to be no significant change before the Spring Festival [9]. 3.3 Options - **Option Contract Information**: On January 19, 2026, for options such as CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC, the closing prices decreased by 16.9%, 17.7%, and 34.1% respectively, and the implied volatilities were 13.3%, 11.3%, and 11.2% respectively [11]. - **Volatility and Volume PCR**: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the volume PCR was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [11][12]. - **Option Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to whether the support at the previous low is effective. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is also expected to oscillate at the bottom. After the Zhengzhou sugar price slightly rises to near the upper edge of the previous range, it is expected to face significant upward pressure. For arbitrage and options, the report suggests waiting and seeing [9][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of SR09, SR01, and SR05 are 5,288, 5,395, and 5,278 respectively, with increases of 14, 16, and 17, and increases of 0.27%, 0.30%, and 0.32%. The trading volumes are 26,559, 726, and 257,845, with changes of -748, -340, and 4421. The open interests are 123,081, 4,146, and 458,435, with increases of 2021, 519, and 4522 [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions vary. For example, the price in Liuzhou is 5370 yuan/ton with an increase of 10, and the price in Kunming is 5175 yuan/ton with an increase of 20. The basis differences also vary in different regions [3] - **Inter - month Spread**: The SR05 - SR01 spread is -117 with an increase of 1, the SR09 - SR05 spread is 10 with a decrease of 3, and the SR09 - SR01 spread is -107 with a decrease of 2 [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price is 3897, the out - of - quota price is 4946. For Thai imports, the in - quota price is 3888, the out - of - quota price is 4933 [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In the first week of February, Brazil exported 76.24 tons of sugar and molasses, a year - on - year increase of 34.28%. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' prediction of China's sugar supply and demand situation remains the same as last month. As of January 31, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong decreased by 34.9%, 17.7%, and 28.9% year - on - year respectively. The global market remains in a situation of loose supply and demand [5] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar influence is declining, while India's sugar production may increase more than expected, but some institutions predict a decrease in sugar production and an increase in consumption in the 2026/27 season, so international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Domestically, although there is pressure on the supply side due to increased production, the increase in international sugar prices and the easing of domestic macro - sentiment are expected to relieve the pressure on domestic sugar prices, and domestic sugar prices are also expected to oscillate at the bottom [9] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, pay attention to the support of international and domestic sugar prices at the previous lows. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11][12] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou's spot price and the price difference with Kunming, and various futures basis and spreads [14][18][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As the Spring Festival approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the previous good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. Therefore, it is recommended to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3790, up 20 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3392, down 32; JD09 closed at 3875, down 4 [2]. - **JD Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 398, up 52; the 05 - 09 spread was - 483, down 28; the 09 - 01 spread was 85, down 24 [2]. - **Egg/Corn and Egg/Soybean Meal Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.68, up 0.01; the 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.30, up 0.01. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.49, down 0.01; the 05 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.24, down 0.01. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.68, unchanged; the 09 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.36, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, up 0.01 from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][4]. - **Eliminated Chicken Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][5]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Profit per Chicken**: The profit per chicken was 12.72 yuan, up 0.34 from the previous day [2]. - **Feed Prices**: The average price of corn was 2369 yuan, up 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3174 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.61 yuan, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: The national mainstream egg price remained stable. The egg prices in most regions were stable, with only local fluctuations. The egg sales in the representative sales areas as of February 5th were 7210 tons, down 2.3% from the previous week, but still at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [4][5]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In January, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, but an increase of 5% year - on - year, lower than expected [4]. - **Chicken Chick Output**: The monthly output of chicken chicks in January (about 50% of the national total) was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with little year - on - year change [4]. - **Egg - laying Hen Culling**: From February 6th, the weekly culling volume of egg - laying hens in the main production areas was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 495 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.07 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [5]. - **Profit Situation**: As of February 5th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.52 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 6th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 12.65 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.37 yuan/jin from the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic As the Spring Festival approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the previous good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. So, it is recommended to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [6]. 3.6 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the holiday, funds may take profits, sentiment is expected to decline, and there is a need for a correction in the oil market. It is advisable to consider short - selling at high levels or waiting for a correction to buy at low levels. The overall market will maintain a wide - range oscillation [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on February 10, 2026, were 8098, 8940, and 9096 respectively, with price drops of 16, 74, and 41. The spot prices and basis of these oils in different regions were also presented. For example, the spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8478, and the basis was 480 with a decline of 20 [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 50, 28, and 21 respectively, with changes of 0, 2, and - 13 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 05 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were - 842, 998, and 156 respectively, with changes of 58, - 25, and 33. The oil - meal ratio was 2.96 with a decline of 0.01 [2] - **Import Profits**: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the March shipment was 1118, with a negative profit of 301. The FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the March shipment was 1062, with a negative profit of 1401 [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 5th week of 2026, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 96.0, 72.7, and 23.7 million tons respectively, compared with 94.7, 70.1, and 24.2 million tons in the previous week, and 89.4, 44.3, and 64.0 million tons in the same period last year [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: In January 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1,577,454 tons, a 13.78% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1,484,267 tons, an 11.44% month - on - month increase; and inventory was 2,815,493 tons, a 7.72% month - on - month decrease [4] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of February 6, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 72.67 million tons, a 3.61% increase from the previous week. The origin's quotes were stable with a slight decline, and the import profit was inverted by about 200. The basis was stable with a weak trend, and the spot market trading volume increased slightly. Short - term palm oil will maintain a wide - range oscillation [4] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.484 million tons, and the operating rate was 68.33%. As of February 6, 2026, the national soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.1552 million tons, a 0.78% increase from the previous week. The soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The basis is relatively stable. The overall soybean oil inventory may slightly decrease, but the supply is sufficient [4][6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 10,000 tons, and the operating rate was 2.67%. As of February 6, 2026, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 237,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote was stable at around 1030 US dollars, and the import profit inversion increased to about - 1300. Recently, China has purchased a large amount of Canadian rapeseed, which may bring supply pressure in the far - term. However, in the short - term, the rapeseed oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the actual available inventory is tight, which supports the near - term basis [6] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: Near the holiday, funds may take profits, and the oil market has a correction demand. Consider short - selling at high levels or waiting for a correction to buy at low levels. The overall market will maintain a wide - range oscillation [8] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider reverse arbitrage for Y59 at high levels [9] - **Options Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [13][14][17][21]

Report Information - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [1] - Report Type: Crude Oil Spot Market Daily Report [1] - Researcher: Zhao Ruochen [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03151390 [2] - Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0023496 [2] - Email: zhaoruochen_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Core Views - The risk premium that had declined during the US-Iran nuclear negotiations has rebounded in recent days due to the US advising US-flagged vessels to stay away from Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz. International oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with the Brent main contract to be monitored in the range of $65 - $68 [3] Industry News Trade and Logistics - The Adani Group received information requests from the US due to a media report alleging the company's import of Iranian oil products into India, raising concerns about potential sanctions [3] - The US government advised US-flagged vessels to stay away from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions between Washington and Tehran have been rising after a vessel was harassed in the area last week [3] - The EU proposed sanctions on ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil [3] - Venezuela's crude oil production has rebounded to 1 million barrels per day due to relaxed production controls in the Orinoco Oil Belt [3] Energy Transition - The US Environmental Protection Agency plans to repeal a policy this week that provided a legal basis for a series of greenhouse gas emission control regulations, marking a significant policy regression by President Trump in addressing climate change [3] Spot Transactions - India's state-owned refiner Bharat Petroleum Corporation purchased 2 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude oil through a tender, with the cargo expected to arrive between April 5 and 14 [3] Oilfield Pipelines - The exploration and production subsidiary of Thailand's national oil company approved a new oil and gas development project in Malaysia. The project is expected to start initial oil production in 2028, with a target capacity of 15,000 barrels per day [3] Refinery Dynamics - A 100,000-barrel-per-day crude distillation unit at the Sakai refinery of Japan's Cosmo Oil Company in Osaka unexpectedly shut down on February 9, and the resumption time is uncertain [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC near - month contract's price declined due to the unchanged MSK WK10 Shanghai - Rotterdam quote and the loosening of the March price increase expectation. The market is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see. The 6 - 10 positive spread should be rolled for arbitrage [5][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 were 1,179.0, 1,273.0, 1,499.8, 1,576.3, 1,110.9, and 1,380.0 respectively. The price changes were - 59.0, 0, - 53.2, - 38.5, - 15.2, and - 45.5, with price change rates of - 4.77%, N/A, - 3.43%, - 2.38%, - 1.35%, and - 3.19%. The trading volumes were 29,560.0, 271.0, 4,155.0, 340.0, 1,093, and 38, with volume change rates of 105.51%, N/A, 88.35%, 26.39%, 77.72%, and 442.86%. The open interests were 33,899.0, 228.0, 14,740.0, 1,416.0, 8,071, and 127, with change rates of 8.89%, N/A, 0.10%, 0.14%, 2.26%, and - 7.97% [3] - **Month - spread Structure**: The spreads and their changes between different contracts are presented, such as EC04 - EC06 with a spread of - 321 and a change of - 5.8 [3] 2. Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: SCFIS European line index was 1657.94, with a week - on - week change of - 7.49% and a year - on - year change of - 29.54%. SCFIS US West line index was 1155.66, with a week - on - week change of 4.93% and a year - on - year change of - 48.57%. Other routes' freight rates and their changes are also provided [3] 3. Fuel Costs - **Crude Oil Prices**: The price of WTI crude oil near - month contract was $64.38 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of 1.74% and a year - on - year change of - 9.84%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month contract was $68.5 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of 1.57% and a year - on - year change of - 8.7% [3] 4. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Analysis**: MSK's WK10 Shanghai - Rotterdam quote remained unchanged, and the March price increase expectation was loose. The demand is entering a downward phase after reaching the peak, and the supply capacity deployment has little change compared with the previous period. The traditional off - season for freight rates is from February to April, and the expected rush of shipments is less than expected. The geopolitical situation is unstable, and it is difficult for large - scale resumption of European routes in the first half of the year [5][6] - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival. For arbitrage, a rolling operation of 6 - 10 positive spread is recommended [7][8] 5. Industry News - The US Maritime Administration advised US ships to stay away from Iranian waters. White House officials stated that US President Trump did not support Israel's annexation of the West Bank [10] 6. Related Attachments - There are multiple figures, including the SCFIS European line index and US West line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates of different routes [11][16][24]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Zhao Ruochen [4] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03151390 [4] - Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0023496 [4] - Email: zhaoruochen_qh@chinastock.com.cn [4] Group 2: Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market - Adani Group is facing potential sanctions as the US seeks information after a media report alleged the company imported Iranian oil products into India [3] - Cosmo Oil's refinery in Sakai, Osaka, with a daily crude distillation capacity of 100,000 barrels, had an unplanned shutdown on February 9, and the restart time is uncertain [3] - The US government advised US - flagged vessels to stay away from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz due to recent harassment of a ship in the area and rising tensions between Washington and Tehran [3] Group 3: Spot Market Overview Shandong Region - The estimated price of civil LPG in Shandong is 4,490 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The market continued to rise slightly due to reduced external resource inflows and no inventory pressure on refineries [5] - The Shandong ether - after carbon - four market showed an upward trend, with good trading. Low supply and downstream demand supported the market, and it is expected to continue a steady and slightly rising trend tomorrow [5] East China Region - The mainstream transaction price of civil LPG in East China is 4,475 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market is stable, and it is expected to remain so in the short term as sellers' inventory is controllable and they focus on stable shipments [5] South China Region - The average transaction price of domestic LPG in South China is 4,750 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day, and the average price of imported LPG is 4,865 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan/ton decrease. The market is stable with some price drops. It is expected to be range - bound before the Spring Festival due to factors like approaching cost, weak demand, and limited transactions [5] North China Region - The benchmark price of civil LPG in North China is 4,297 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The market had local price drops, and low - price transactions were good as downstream buyers made purchases [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - LPG trading is currently influenced by geopolitical factors, with market sentiment amplifying price fluctuations. The international LPG supply is tight, and winter demand is strong, providing support. However, the domestic market is becoming more relaxed, with sufficient refinery supply and low chemical demand creating resistance [7] - With the Iran negotiation yet to be finalized, there are still tail risks. The domestic LPG market is expected to be volatile in the short term and face pressure in the long term [7]