铁矿石日报 2025 年 01 月 07 日 研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 839.0 | 826.0 | 13.0 | I01-I05 | 11.0 | 25.0 | -14.0 | | DCE05 | 828.0 | 801.0 | 27.0 | I05-I09 | 23.5 | 21.0 | 2.5 | | DCE09 | 804.5 | 780.0 | 24.5 | I09-I01 | -34.5 | -46.0 | 11.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 809 | 802 | 7 | 879 | 45 | 70 | 91 | | 纽曼粉 | 811 | 804 | 7 | 887 | 53 | 78 | 99 | | 麦克粉 | 812 | 808 | 4 | 896 | 62 | 87 | 108 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Meal Daily Report" and is dated January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Researcher Information - The researcher is Chen Jiezheng, with a futures practice certificate number of F3045719 and an investment consulting certificate number of Z0015458. The contact email is chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, the 01 contract closed at 3171 with a gain of 21, the 05 contract at 2811 with a gain of 35, and the 09 contract at 2888 with a gain of 17. The spot basis in different regions showed various changes. For example, in Tianjin, it rose from 340 to 370 [3] - For rapeseed meal, the 01 contract closed at 2677 with a gain of 40, the 05 contract at 2419 with a gain of 29, and the 09 contract at 2465 with a gain of 28. The spot basis also changed in different regions, like in Nantong, it decreased from 110 to 81 [3] Monthly Spreads - For soybean meal, the 15 spread was 360 (down 14 from yesterday), the 59 spread was -77 (up 18), and the 91 spread was -283 (down 4). For rapeseed meal, the 15 spread was 258 (up 11), the 59 spread was -46 (up 1), and the 91 spread was -212 (down 12) [3] Cross - Variety Futures Spreads - The 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 494 (down from 513 yesterday), and the 09 spread was 423 (down from 434 yesterday). The 01 oil - meal ratio was 2.583 (down from 2.584 yesterday) [3] Spot Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 601 (up 25 from yesterday), the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 270 (down 10), and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 841 (up 5) [3] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean market continued to rise, possibly supported by recent good exports but with limited overall impact. The domestic soybean meal market also showed significant upward movement, with cost support and concerns about future supply. Rapeseed meal rose following the trend, with limited self - driven positive factors. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The overall supply - demand of the US soybean market is still relatively loose, with obvious downward price pressure in the follow - up. South America's supply - side influence has increased recently. Brazil's new crop planting progress has accelerated but remains at a relatively low level compared to the historical average. Most institutions predict a bumper harvest for Brazil's new crop, and the export volume is expected to increase significantly, but it still depends on the actual yield. Brazil's old crop has shown good export and crushing performance, with obvious export growth. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market is still in a state of relatively loose supply - demand. The oil mill operating rate remains high, the market supply is sufficient, and the提货 volume has increased, while the inventory remains at a high level. Market transactions have recently decreased, and the overall market demand has increased, but there are still uncertainties about future supply. As of January 2, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7533 million tons, the operating rate was 48.23%, the soybean inventory was 7.1025 million tons (an increase of 0.5581 million tons compared to last week, a growth rate of 8.53%, and an increase of 1.158 million tons year - on - year, a growth rate of 19.48%), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.1702 million tons (an increase of 0.0026 million tons compared to last week, a growth rate of 0.22%, and an increase of 0.4866 million tons year - on - year, a growth rate of 71.18%). The domestic rapeseed meal demand has continued to weaken recently, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply remains at a low level, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory remains high, with overall supply pressure still existing [5] Group 6: Logic Analysis - The US soybean market showed a certain rebound after the downward pressure was fully reflected, but the demand support is limited. If the supply side remains at a high level, the overall pressure will still exist. Brazil's short - term weather conditions are good, and the harvest is expected to proceed smoothly, with the pressure of a bumper harvest likely to continue to be reflected. The overall supply - demand of the international soybean market is still relatively loose, and the price is expected to face certain pressure. The recent South American quotes are still firm, and the near - term supply may tighten, which has a certain supporting effect on the price. The domestic soybean arrivals will decrease in the follow - up, and the soybean meal supply may also decrease, providing support for the spot market and driving the recent market. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is still relatively loose, and the price pressure remains. The recent demand for rapeseed meal is still average, and it showed a downward trend due to the influence of supply - side changes. However, affected by the subsequent improvement of the soybean meal spot market, rapeseed meal also showed a follow - up rebound. As the soybean meal spot market is expected to be stronger in the follow - up, the spread between them is expected to narrow. The monthly spread of soybean meal showed a significant strengthening trend, but its sustainability is expected to be limited under the condition of loose future supply. The monthly spread of rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, with limited demand support, and the spread is still under pressure due to the previous upward performance [6] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to reduce long positions - Arbitrage: Narrow the MRM spread - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [7] Group 8: Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the pressing profit data of Brazilian soybeans from February to August 2026, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the changes in pressing profit compared to yesterday [8]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Livestock Daily Report" and was released on January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The current pressure on hog sales has improved, and the spot price has continued to rebound. However, due to the high inventory and large average weight of hogs, the overall supply remains abundant, and the upward space for hog prices is limited. In the short term, the market may have phased support, but in the long term, the overall trend of the hog spot market is expected to be downward [3][5] - The futures price of hogs has generally risen, mainly driven by the increase in the spot price. In the short term, the supply pressure is limited, and the price may have strong support. However, in the medium - term, due to the high inventory, the supply pressure is obvious, and the futures price is expected to decline in the long run [5] Group 4: Price Information Spot Prices - The average spot price of hogs today is 12.92 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in most regions showed an upward trend, with the largest increase of 0.27 yuan/kg in Zhejiang [3] Futures Prices - Futures prices generally rose, with LH01 up 305 to 11830, LH03 down 25 to 11785, LH05 up 5 to 12260, LH07 unchanged at 12940, LH09 down 5 to 13885, and LH11 down 15 to 13875 [3] Sow and Piglet Prices - The price of piglets this week is 251 yuan, up 24 yuan from last week, and the price of sows is 1554 yuan, up 3 yuan from last week [3] Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 increased by 5 to - 945, LH9 - 1 decreased by 310 to 2055, LH9 - 11 increased by 10 to 10, and LH11 - 1 decreased by 320 to 2045 [3] Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 191064 heads, an increase of 1276 heads from yesterday [3] Size - based Hog Price Spreads - The price spreads between different sizes of hogs remained unchanged [3] Group 5: Market Analysis Spot Market - The enthusiasm of large - scale enterprises to sell hogs has increased, but the volume remains low. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell hogs has remained stable. Secondary fattening has continued to enter the market, and the supply of large - weight hogs has increased. The slowdown in the sales rhythm has supported the hog price in the short term. However, due to the high inventory and large average weight of hogs, the supply pressure will continue to be reflected, and the overall upward space for hog prices is limited [3][5] Futures Market - The rise in futures prices is mainly driven by the increase in spot prices. In the short - term, the supply pressure is limited, and the price may have strong support. In the medium - term, due to the high inventory, the supply pressure is obvious, and the upward sustainability of futures prices is limited. In the long - term, the futures price is expected to decline [5] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, adopt a bearish approach - For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see strategy - For options, use the strategy of selling wide straddles [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn market is weak, with inventory reductions but still high production, causing it to oscillate at the bottom. Import profit for foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2,137 yuan. The domestic corn spot market is relatively stable in the short - term, with attention on the seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China and downstream inventory building before the Spring Festival. The starch market is affected by corn prices and downstream stocking. Current starch prices are weak, and corporate profitability is declining [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - C2601 closed at 2,288, down 5 (-0.22%), with a trading volume of 1,778 (down 74.10%) and an open interest of 18,650 (up 1.49%). - C2605 closed at 2,253, up 1 (0.04%), with a trading volume of 136,894 (up 33.67%) and an open interest of 526,948 (up 1.82%). - C2509 closed at 2,280, up 3 (0.13%), with a trading volume of 6,526 (up 17.06%) and an open interest of 45,546 (up 2.57%). - CS2601 closed at 2,485, down 1 (-0.04%), with a trading volume of 1,023 (up 124.34%) and an open interest of 2,400 (down 25.51%). - CS2605 closed at 2,545, down 7 (-0.28%), with a trading volume of 10,474 (up 103.05%) and an open interest of 49,506 (up 13.62%). - CS2509 closed at 2,593, down 5 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 549 (up 268.46%) and an open interest of 1,769 (up 4.86%) [2]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - **Corn**: Today's quotes in different regions range from 2,120 to 2,440 yuan. The price in Qinggang is 2,120 yuan (unchanged), in Songyuan Jiji is 2,180 yuan (down 10), etc. The basis varies from -160 to 160 yuan [2]. - **Starch**: Today's quotes in different regions range from 2,700 to 2,880 yuan, all unchanged. The basis varies from 155 to 335 yuan [2]. 3.1.3 Spreads - **Corn Inter - delivery**: The spread of C01 - C05 is 35 (down 6), C05 - C09 is -27 (down 2), and C09 - C01 is -8 (up 8). - **Starch Inter - delivery**: The spread of CS01 - CS05 is -60 (up 6), CS05 - CS09 is -48 (down 2), and CS09 - CS01 is 108 (down 4). - **Cross - variety**: The spread of CS09 - C09 is 313 (down 8), CS01 - C01 is 197 (up 4), and CS05 - C05 is 292 (down 8) [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn market is oscillating at the bottom. Import profit for foreign corn has increased. The spot price in the northern ports is stable, while the price in the Northeast corn - producing area is weak. The supply in North China has increased, and the price is weak. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price is stable, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large, giving corn a cost - performance advantage. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The short - term corn spot is relatively stable, with attention on the seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China and downstream inventory building before the Spring Festival [4][6]. 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is weak. The starch price in Shandong is around 2,720 yuan, and the spot price in Northeast China is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has risen to 112.5 million tons, a monthly increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 25.1%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price and weak starch price, corporate profitability is declining. The 03 starch contract is oscillating at the bottom, and the corn price in North China may decline in January, with limited upside potential for the 03 starch contract in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Close the long position of 07 corn [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Use a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the closing price of corn at northern ports, the basis of corn 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of corn starch 05 contract, and the spread of corn starch 05 contract [15][16][17][19][21][22]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report - Ferroalloy Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - SF Main Contract: Closing price at 5860, up 84 (1.45%) daily and 184 weekly. Volume was 329,099, up 1,863 daily, and open interest was 257,498, down 11,933 daily [3] - SM Main Contract: Closing price at 6000, up 82 (1.39%) daily and 138 weekly. Volume was 317,087, up 42,537 daily, and open interest was 284,324, up 14,767 daily [3] Spot Market - Ferrosilicon (72% FeSi): Spot prices in different regions showed increases of 30 - 100 yuan/ton in some areas. For example, Inner Mongolia was at 5450, up 90 daily and 50 weekly [3] - Silicomanganese (6517): Spot prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton overall. Inner Mongolia was at 5650, up 20 daily and unchanged weekly [3] Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon Basis: Inner Mongolia - Main Contract was -410, up 6 daily and down 134 weekly [3] - Silicomanganese Basis: Inner Mongolia - Main Contract was -350, down 62 daily and 138 weekly [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was at 41.8, unchanged daily and up 0.3 weekly; South African semi - carbonate was at 35.5, up 0.3 daily and 0.5 weekly [3] - Lanthanum Coke Small Material: Prices in different regions remained stable [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Trading Strategy - Unilateral: With the expectation of improving supply - demand and cost support, prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [5][6] - Arbitrage: Hold off [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] Key Information - Brazil's exports of ferrosilicon with silicon content > 55% in November 2025 were 14,022.8 tons, up 64.95% month - on - month and down 5.87% year - on - year [7] - South Africa's only remaining manganese smelter, Transalloys, warned of possible large - scale layoffs due to high electricity costs [7] Group 4: Related Charts - Charts include ferroalloy main contract trends, SF - SM spreads, monthly spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [10][11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics. The stock index continues to be strong, while the bond market is weak. In the agricultural products sector, there are differences in supply and demand among various varieties. In the black metal and non - ferrous metal sectors, prices are affected by factors such as policies, supply and demand, and geopolitical events. The energy and chemical sector also shows price fluctuations due to geopolitical and supply - demand factors [19][23][26]. Summary by Related Categories Financial Derivatives 1. Stock Index Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: Fluctuations do not change the upward trend. The stock index continued to rise strongly on Tuesday, with all major indices hitting new highs. The market sentiment was high, and short - term stock indices still had upward momentum [19][20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should adopt a strategy of buying on dips; for arbitrage, wait for the discount to widen for IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: With the increase in risk appetite, the bond market tends to be weak. On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and short - term bond markets may continue to be weak, but the space for further adjustment is relatively limited [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading should adopt a wait - and - see approach [24]. Agricultural Products 1. Protein Meal - **Core Viewpoint**: Supply pressure still exists, and US soybeans continue to decline. International soybeans are under cost pressure, but due to the relatively low inventory of South American old crops, the decline in prices may be limited. Domestic soybeans may have some support on the spot side [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be mainly based on range - bound operation; for arbitrage, narrow the MRM spread; for options, use a short straddle strategy [27]. 2. Sugar - **Core Viewpoint**: International sugar prices rose slightly, and domestic sugar prices were slightly stronger. International sugar prices may bottom - oscillate in the short term, and domestic sugar prices may also be slightly stronger, but there is still pressure at the upper shock platform [28][30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: International sugar prices are expected to bottom - oscillate in the short term, and Zheng sugar is expected to be slightly stronger; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options [31]. 3. Oilseeds and Oils - **Core Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the commodity market has improved, and oils have risen. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upside space is restricted. Geopolitical factors may have more emotional impact than real impact [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Oils will oscillate in the short term, and the idea for palm oil is to short at the upper edge of the range after a rebound; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [34]. 4. Corn/Corn Starch - **Core Viewpoint**: US corn is weak, and the spot price of domestic corn is stable in the short term but still under pressure in the long term [35][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: For the outer 03 corn, buy on dips during the bottom - oscillation; for the 07 corn, adopt a strategy of buying on dips; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch; for options, wait and see [37]. 5. Live Hogs - **Core Viewpoint**: Supply pressure still exists, and the spot price oscillates. The overall inventory of live hogs is relatively high, and the supply pressure still exists, so the pig price is still under pressure [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should mainly be based on a short - selling strategy; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use a short straddle strategy [40]. 6. Peanuts - **Core Viewpoint**: Peanut spot prices are stable, and the futures price oscillates at the bottom. The spot price is stable, and the 03 peanut futures have a warehouse - receipt game, but the supply of oil - using peanuts is loose, so the futures price oscillates at the bottom [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The 05 peanut futures will oscillate at the bottom, buy on dips but do not chase the rise; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [42]. 7. Eggs - **Core Viewpoint**: The demand is average, and the egg price rises steadily. In the short term, the near - month contract may oscillate weakly, and the far - month May contract can consider building long positions on dips [44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The February contract is expected to oscillate within a range, and consider building long positions on the far - month May contract; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [46]. 8. Apples - **Core Viewpoint**: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the fruit price oscillates at a high level. The cost of apple warehouse receipts is high, which supports the futures price. If the cold - storage apple delivery can maintain a normal level, the supply may be tight in the future [48][49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Hold the long position of the May contract and short the October contract on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on May and short on October; for options, wait and see [50]. 9. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Core Viewpoint**: The expected planting area in the new year will decline, and the cotton price will oscillate strongly. The expected reduction in the planting area and strong sales progress support the cotton price, but there may be a short - term correction risk [51][52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: US cotton is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and Zheng cotton will oscillate strongly; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [53]. Black Metals 1. Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the steel price oscillates within a range. The steel market is affected by factors such as production resumption, inventory, demand, and policies. Although there is support in the short term, the upward space may be suppressed in the future [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should mainly be based on a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread; for options, wait and see [57]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Core Viewpoint**: They continue to oscillate widely. Affected by macro - sentiment and seasonal factors, the coking coal and coke prices are expected to continue to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to chase the rise [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Do not chase the rise, and try to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [60]. 3. Iron Ore - **Core Viewpoint**: Market expectations are fluctuating, and the ore price oscillates. The global iron ore supply is loose, and the domestic terminal steel demand is declining, so the ore price is expected to oscillate [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The price will oscillate; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [63]. 4. Ferroalloys - **Core Viewpoint**: With the expectation of marginal improvement in supply and demand and cost - push, they are short - term bullish. Both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be short - term bullish due to factors such as supply contraction expectations and cost support [63][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: They are short - term bullish; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [64]. Non - Ferrous Metals 1. Gold and Silver - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors dominate, and they may oscillate strongly in the short term. Affected by geopolitical events and market sentiment, gold and silver prices are expected to remain strong, but attention should be paid to short - term pressure [66][67]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Hold long positions of Shanghai gold and silver cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [67][68]. 2. Platinum and Palladium - **Core Viewpoint**: The sentiment of long - position funds is warming up, and they are back on the upward channel. Platinum is expected to be bullish due to tight supply - demand fundamentals, while palladium may be affected by the macro - environment and show a linkage with platinum [70][71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Go long on platinum on dips based on the MA5 daily line, and wait and see on palladium; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, wait and see [72]. 3. Copper - **Core Viewpoint**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Supported by macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals, the copper price is in an upward trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The upward trend remains unchanged, and control the position to buy on dips; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [74]. 4. Alumina - **Core Viewpoint**: Driven by policy expectations, the alumina price rises. Market concerns about policies related to red mud treatment drive the price up, but the fundamentals change little [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The price rises driven by policy expectations; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [79]. 5. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Viewpoint**: Shanghai aluminum is running strongly. Driven by factors such as global aluminum shortage expectations and geopolitical risks, the aluminum price is rising, and it is recommended to go long on dips [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Follow the trend, hold long positions and control the position; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [82]. 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Viewpoint**: It runs strongly following the sector. Affected by geopolitical risks and cost factors, the aluminum alloy price rises following the sector, but the trading volume is light [85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It runs strongly following the sector; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [85]. 7. Zinc - **Core Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side, and the zinc price may run at a high level. The zinc market has a complex situation of supply and demand, and the price is mainly affected by macro - factors and capital. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing the rise [87][89]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It runs at a high level, and pay attention to the capital sentiment; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [89]. 8. Lead - **Core Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the changes in domestic social inventory. The lead market has a situation of short - supply and certain consumption resilience. Low inventory and other factors may attract long - position funds, and the price may rise [92]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Buy on dips and pay attention to the impact of the capital side; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner [92]. 9. Nickel - **Core Viewpoint**: Speculation on resource products, and the nickel price returns to the financial attribute. The nickel price is in a large - scale upward trend, and the financial attribute is restored. It is recommended to follow the trend, but be vigilant against correction risks [93]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Adopt a bullish strategy and be vigilant against correction risks; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [94][96]. 10. Stainless Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: It follows the nickel price and runs strongly. Affected by factors such as nickel ore quota contraction and tight hot - rolled resources, the stainless - steel price follows the nickel price, but the upward drive is weaker [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Follow the rise of the nickel price; for arbitrage, wait and see [98]. 11. Industrial Silicon - **Core Viewpoint**: It is short - term bullish and bearish in the medium - term. The industrial silicon market has a situation of high production and possible inventory accumulation, but it may rebound in the short term due to market sentiment. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [100][101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It is short - term bullish and short on rallies in the medium - term; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [102]. 12. Polysilicon - **Core Viewpoint**: The downstream price rises, the spot transaction center moves up, and it is bullish. Driven by the self - discipline of the photovoltaic industry chain, the polysilicon price is expected to be bullish in the long - term, but be cautious in the short - term [103]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It is bullish, but be cautious and pay attention to risk control; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; for options, sell put options [104]. 13. Lithium Carbonate - **Core Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is optimistic, and the price runs strongly. Although there may be inventory accumulation in January, the price is difficult to fall deeply due to the replenishment demand of upstream and downstream. The long - term trend is good [106]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Control the position and operate cautiously [107]. 14. Tin - **Core Viewpoint**: Driven by AI demand, the tin price rises with increasing positions. Affected by geopolitical events and AI demand, the tin price rises, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption realization [109][112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Follow the logic of long - position funds to trade; for options, wait and see [112]. Shipping - **Core Viewpoint**: The spot price is peaking, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The container shipping market is in a situation of price game, and the demand is expected to improve. Attention should be paid to the adjustment rhythm of shipping companies and geopolitical impacts [114]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract should be closed on rallies, and the remaining light positions can be held at discretion; for arbitrage, wait and see [114][116]. Energy and Chemicals 1. Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to fluctuate widely. Affected by the situation in Venezuela and other geopolitical factors, the crude - oil price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the Brent main - contract price range [118][119]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It will fluctuate widely; for arbitrage, domestic gasoline is relatively strong, diesel is relatively weak, and the crude - oil monthly spread is strong; for options, wait and see [119]. 2. Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: The raw - material contradiction dominates, and the asphalt price oscillates at a high level. The asphalt market is affected by raw - material supply and demand. Although the demand is in the off - season, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [121][122]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It will oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [122]. 3. Fuel Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors cause frequent disturbances, and the price fluctuation intensifies. Affected by the situation in Venezuela and other factors, the fuel - oil price fluctuates strongly. Attention should be paid to the development of the situation in Venezuela [124][125]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It is short - term bullish, but be vigilant against geopolitical risks and do not chase the rise; for arbitrage, pay attention to the FU59 positive spread opportunity, and both low - sulfur and high - sulfur cracking are weak; for options, wait and see [125][126]. 4. Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: TTF/JKM oscillates at a low level, and HH searches for support downward. Affected by temperature and inventory factors, the natural - gas price is expected to decline in the long - term, and the short position of the third - quarter TTF contract can be held [127][128]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Hold the short position of the third - quarter TTF or JKM contract; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [129]. 5. LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Supported by geopolitical premium. Affected by factors such as the rise in Saudi CP prices and geopolitical risks, the LPG price has support in the short - term, but it is under pressure in the long - term [130][131]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Pay attention to the follow

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, while domestic sugar prices are predicted to show an oscillating trend in the near future [9][10]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and sell put options [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: On January 6, 2026, SR09 closed at 5,275 with a gain of 6 (0.11%), SR01 at 5,285 with a gain of 7 (0.13%), and SR05 at 5,259 with a gain of 2 (0.04%). The trading volumes of SR09, SR01, and SR05 were 12,920, 681, and 187,904 respectively, with changes of 3766, -742, and 51798. The open interests were 72,898, 10,501, and 427,408 respectively, with changes of 1342, -681, and 4843 [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in different locations on January 6, 2026, were as follows: 5380 in Liuzhou, 5200 in Kunming, 5650 in Wuhan, 5350 in Nanning, 0 in Bayuquan, 5545 in Rizhao, and 5790 in Xi'an. The price changes were 10 in Liuzhou, 0 in Kunming, 0 in Wuhan, 20 in Nanning, 0 in Bayuquan, 0 in Rizhao, and 0 in Xi'an. The corresponding basis values were 121, -59, 391, 91, and 286, 531 [3]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads of SR05 - SR01, SR09 - SR05, and SR09 - SR01 were -26, 16, and -10 respectively, with changes of -5, 4, and -1 [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 of 14.77, a premium of 0.04, and a freight of 32.75, the in - quota price was 3974, the out - of - quota price was 5046, the spread with Liuzhou was 334, the spread with Rizhao was 499, and the spread with the futures market was 239. For Thai imports, with an ICE主力 of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4019, the out - of - quota price was 5105, the spread with Liuzhou was 275, the spread with Rizhao was 440, and the spread with the futures market was 180 [3]. Part 2: Market Outlook - **Important Information**: As of December 31, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, 73 sugar mills had all started crushing, one less than the previous year. The cumulative sugar - cane crushing was 1623.03 million tons, a decrease of 525.15 million tons year - on - year; the output of blended sugar was 194.19 million tons, a decrease of 80.95 million tons; the sugar - production rate was 11.96%, a decrease of 0.85 percentage points; the cumulative sugar sales were 88.48 million tons, a decrease of 74.74 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 45.56%, a decrease of 13.76 percentage points. In December, the monthly sugar production in Guangxi was 180.8 million tons, a decrease of 43.1 million tons, and the monthly sugar sales were 79.54 million tons, a decrease of 55.18 million tons. The industrial inventory was 105.71 million tons, a decrease of 6.21 million tons [5]. - As of January 1, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 26 sugar mills among the members of the Ukrainian Sugar Producers Association had started production, processing 1043 million tons of sugar beets and producing 157.4 million tons of sugar. The sugar - production rate of sugar beets in this season reached 15.19%, an increase of 1.13 percentage points compared to the previous season, and the sugar content of sugar beets was 17.63%, an increase of 0.88 percentage points year - on - year. Six sugar mills were still processing sugar beets in January, and the production of this season was expected to end before January 20, 2026 [6]. - On January 6, the spot prices of sugar in the main production areas were basically stable, and the overall trading volume was average [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazilian sugar cane is expected to gradually enter the end of the crushing season. The cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is 3990.4 million tons, an increase of 54.3 million tons compared to the same period last year. As Brazilian sugar enters the end of the crushing season, the supply pressure will gradually ease, and the market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. Although the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere is high, the actual realization may affect the futures price. In the short term, the US sugar price has technically bottomed out but lacks upward momentum, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [9]. - Domestically, the current sugar price is low, in the low - price range of previous years. After the previous unexpected decline, the short - covering market has been somewhat repaired. Secondly, the domestic sugar processing cost is relatively high, with most sugar mills in Guangxi having a cost of over 5400 yuan/ton, which provides some support for the futures price. Finally, the recent trend of the US sugar price on the external market shows signs of bottoming out, and the out - of - quota cost of importing Brazilian sugar is between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton, which has an upward driving force for Zhengzhou sugar. However, considering that China is currently in the peak sugar - crushing season and there is still some sales pressure, and the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase, it is expected that there will be significant pressure on the sugar price near the upper oscillation platform. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate [9]. Part 3: Relevant Attachments The report includes multiple charts such as Guangxi's monthly inventory, Yunnan's monthly inventory, Guangxi's monthly production, Yunnan's monthly production, Liuzhou's spot sugar price, Liuzhou - Kunming spot sugar price spread, sugar's September basis, Zhengzhou sugar's 5 - 9 spread, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [13][14][19].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily [1] - Date: January 6, 2026 - Researchers: Wang Xizhen, Liu Qiannan Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14,955, up 215; trading volume was 9,463 lots, down 828; open interest was 76,464 lots, down 6181 [2] - CF05 contract closed at 14,855, up 200; trading volume was 394,159 lots, down 98,579; open interest was 915,854 lots, up 25,993 [2] - CF09 contract closed at 15,040, up 195; trading volume was 32,651 lots, down 12,617; open interest was 78,436 lots, up 6,406 [2] - CY01 contract closed at 20,250, down 225; trading volume was 32 lots, up 32; open interest was 378 lots, unchanged [2] - CY05 contract closed at 20,880, up 230; trading volume was 61 lots, down 22; open interest was 171 lots, up 7 [2] - CY09 contract closed at 20,695, down 90; trading volume was 1 lot, unchanged; open interest was 14 lots, unchanged [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15,711 yuan/ton, up 126; CY IndexC32S was 21,240 yuan, up 40 [2] - Cot A was 74.05 cents/pound; FCY IndexC33S was 20,985 yuan, up 24 [2] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 71.49; Indian S - 6 was 55,800 yuan, unchanged [2] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,080 yuan, unchanged [2] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,730 yuan, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17,320 yuan, unchanged [2] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 100, up 15; 5 - 9 spread was - 185, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was 85, down 20 [2] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 630, down 455; 5 - 9 spread was 185, up 320; 9 - 1 spread was 445, up 135 [2] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 5,295, down 440; CY05 - CF05 was 6,025, up 30; CY09 - CF09 was 5,655, down 285 [2] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2,827, up 139; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,810, up 130; domestic - foreign yarn spread was 255, up 16 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of December 31, 2025, Pakistan's new cotton listing in 2025/26 reached 842,000 tons, almost the same year - on - year; textile mills purchased 757,000 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year; unsold new cotton was 85,000 tons, down 8.5% year - on - year [4] - As of December 30, 2025, ICE cotton futures fund net long ratio was - 16.13% (up 0.41 percentage points week - on - week, up 2.46 percentage points last week) [4] - As of December 27, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 25.1% complete, up 8.2 percentage points month - on - month, 0.1 percentage points slower year - on - year, and 0.3 percentage points slower than the three - year average [4] Trading Logic - Xinjiang Cotton Association's article confirms the rumor of reduced cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026. Cotton sales are fast, and consumption is expected to increase due to improved Sino - US relations and expansion of Xinjiang textile mills [5] - China signed 20,000 tons of US cotton last week, providing upward momentum for US cotton. The cotton price is supported by fundamental factors, but there may be short - term correction risks [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term correction risks [6] - Arbitrage: Hold off [7] - Options: Hold off [8][12] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The pure cotton yarn market is weak, with only rigid demand. Some factories have orders for 10 - 15 days. Yarn mills raised prices, but downstream acceptance is low [8] - The pure cotton grey fabric market is also weak. Dyeing factories are working on previous orders, and weavers find it difficult to get new orders before the Spring Festival [8] Group 4: Options - Volatility: Cotton's 10 - day HV was 6.4492, slightly higher than the previous day. CF601 - C - 13400 implied volatility was 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [10] - Options Strategy: Hold off [12] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05, CY01 - CF01, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][17][21][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the near - month contracts of eggs are expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase is relatively limited. The supply in the second half of the year is uncertain. If the egg price in the first half is high, the supply pressure will increase; if the price is low, the supply will decrease significantly. In the second half of the year, it is the peak consumption season, and the spot price is likely to rise, with the increase depending on the supply situation [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3104, up 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3536, down 14; JD09 closed at 3961, down 48 [2] - **Cross - month Spreads**: 01 - 05 spread was - 432, up 17; 05 - 09 spread was - 425, up 34; 09 - 01 spread was 857, down 51 [2] - **Price Ratios**: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.36, up 0.00; 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 0.99, down 0.01; 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; 05 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.27, down 0.02; 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.74, down 0.02; 09 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.38, down 0.02 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [2][4] - **淘汰鸡 Prices**: The average price of 淘汰鸡 in the main production areas was 4.05 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][7] 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Production and Sales Areas Prices**: The national mainstream egg prices mostly increased. The prices in the main production areas such as Northeast China, North China, and Central China generally rose. The price of eggs in Beijing's major markets increased by 3 yuan per box [4] - **In - production Laying Hens**: In December, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and an increase of 5% year - on - year, lower than expected [5] - **Chick Hatchlings**: In December, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5] - **Hen Culling**: In the week of December 18, the national main production area's hen culling volume was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 486 days, the same as the previous week [5] - **Egg Sales**: As of the week of December 18, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7023 tons, with little change from the previous week, at a low level over the years [5] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, slightly recovering from the previous week. On December 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6] - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 18, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing from the previous week. The weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing from the previous week [6] 3.4 Trading Logic - In the near term, the demand side has improved, and the near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival. In the second half of the year, due to the uncertainty of supply and the peak demand season, the spot price is likely to rise, but the increase depends on the supply situation [8] 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Consider building long positions in the far - month contracts at low prices [9] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 01 月 06 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.01 | 108.70 | 0.31 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.74 | 7.93 | -0.19 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | ...