Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Date: January 7, 2026 [2] IM Futures Market Summary - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,906.42, up 0.53%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 177,522 lots, a decrease of 22,592 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 371,281 lots, a decrease of 2,026 lots from the previous day. The main contract rose 0.31% to close at 7,760.2 points [4][5]. - The main contract was at a discount of 146.22 points, a decrease of 43.72 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -9.42%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0.29 points, 0.29 points, 0.29 points, and 43.28 points respectively [5]. Main Seats - In IM2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Orient Futures (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), and Zhongtai Futures (on behalf of clients). The trading volume of the top five seats was 99,025 lots, a decrease of 4,964 lots from the previous day [19]. - Similar data was provided for IM2602, IM2603, and IM2606 contracts, showing the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume changes of major seats [21][23] IF Futures Market Summary - The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4,776.67, down 0.29%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 112,698 lots, a decrease of 23,622 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 282,763 lots, a decrease of 7,604 lots from the previous day. The main contract fell 0.28% to close at 4,753 points [24][25]. - The main contract was at a discount of 23.67 points, a decrease of 10.98 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -2.49%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 4.66 points, 6.88 points, 6.91 points, and 37.91 points respectively [25]. Main Seats - In IF2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Orient Futures (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), and CITIC Construction Investment (on behalf of clients). The trading volume of the top five seats was 33,064 lots, a decrease of 10,090 lots from the previous day [38]. - Similar data was provided for IF2602, IF2603, and IF2606 contracts, showing the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume changes of major seats [40][41] IC Futures Market Summary - The closing price of the CSI 500 was 7,875.08, up 0.78%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 149,529 lots, a decrease of 17,874 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 302,506 lots, a decrease of 888 lots from the previous day. The main contract rose 0.63% to close at 7,802.6 points [43][44]. - The main contract was at a discount of 72.48 points, a decrease of 44.74 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -4.64%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0.56 points, 0.56 points, 0.56 points, and 63.02 points respectively [44]. Main Seats - In IC2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), Orient Futures (on behalf of clients), and Zhongtai Futures (on behalf of clients). The trading volume of the top five seats was 84,953 lots, a decrease of 7,260 lots from the previous day [57]. - Similar data was provided for IC2602, IC2603, and IC2606 contracts, showing the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume changes of major seats [59][61] IH Futures Market Summary - The closing price of the SSE 50 was 3,145.12, down 0.43%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 47,545 lots, a decrease of 14,948 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 90,245 lots, a decrease of 8,228 lots from the previous day. The main contract fell 0.36% to close at 3,143.8 points [63]. - The main contract was at a discount of 1.32 points, a decrease of 4.36 points from the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -0.21%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 7.99 points, 7.99 points, 7.99 points, and 26.85 points respectively [64]. Main Seats - In IH2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), Orient Futures (on behalf of clients), and Huatai Futures (on behalf of clients). The trading volume of the top five seats was 29,403 lots, a decrease of 8,271 lots from the previous day [74]. - Similar data was provided for IH2602, IH2603, and IH2606 contracts, showing the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume changes of major seats [77][79]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 | 期货从业证号： | | | | 第一部分 | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | F03107370 | | | | | 花生数据日报 | | | | 2026/1/7 | | 投资咨询证号： | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | Z0018389 | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | | | PK604 | 8010 | 6 | 0.07% | 42,092 | 16.26% | 37,334 | 14.08% | | 联系方式： | | PK610 | 8310 | 0 | 0.00% | 294 | -29.16% | 2,053 | 6.82% | | :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c | | PK601 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 0 | -100.00% | 1,997 | -9.19% | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term steel price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but the upward space is limited due to factors such as increased iron - water production and demand pressure. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing up. The impact of subsequent policies on the export side needs to wait and see the actual implementation, and continue to pay attention to macro - news and other factors [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information (First Part) - Not provided Market Judgement (Second Part) - **Related Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3290 yuan (+400), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3160 yuan (+30), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3320 yuan (+40), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3160 yuan (+30) [4] - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, be cautious about chasing up [6] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold short positions on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - **Important Information** - In December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in the 49% - 50% range for 10 consecutive months. The Asian and African manufacturing PMIs rose, while the European and American manufacturing PMIs declined [10] - From December 1 - 31, 2025, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative retail volume this year was 23.779 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The national passenger car manufacturer wholesale volume was 2.759 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 10% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 29.524 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9% [10] Relevant Attachments (Third Part) - Multiple graphs are provided, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [12][19][22]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The near - month futures market generally follows the spot price trend, with the market opening high and closing low today, while the far - month market remains volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The subsequent index center is expected to gradually rise [6]. - The shipping demand from December to January is expected to gradually improve, and the supply of shipping capacity has changed slightly. The geopolitical situation may have an impact on fuel costs and the trade pattern, but currently, the impact on shipping routes is limited [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - On January 7, 2026, EC2602 closed at 1,779.1 points, a - 5% decline from the previous day's closing price. On December 26, the SCFI European line quote was $1,690/TEU, a + 10.24% increase month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European line index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on Monday was 1,795.83 points, a + 3% increase month - on - month, slightly lower than expected [6]. - In terms of spot freight rates, MSK has adjusted its prices. Other shipping companies have also set different price ranges for January. The shipping capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports from January to March 2026 is 306,100/271,900/283,300 TEU per week on average, with slight changes at the beginning of the week. The FAL8 route of the OA Alliance will add an 8,500 - TEU ship at the end of January and an empty voyage in February [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: Consider closing all long positions in EC2602 at high prices and pay attention to the rhythm of the freight rate reaching the peak [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait for opportunities to enter the market at low prices for the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 2. Industry News - China is considering tightening the export license review of rare earths to Japan, which may have a significant impact on the Japanese economy [10]. - Trump announced that the interim authorities in Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of high - quality, sanctioned crude oil to the United States [10]. - Iran stated that it is ready to respond decisively to any aggression or hostile behavior [11].

铁矿石日报 2025 年 01 月 07 日 研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 839.0 | 826.0 | 13.0 | I01-I05 | 11.0 | 25.0 | -14.0 | | DCE05 | 828.0 | 801.0 | 27.0 | I05-I09 | 23.5 | 21.0 | 2.5 | | DCE09 | 804.5 | 780.0 | 24.5 | I09-I01 | -34.5 | -46.0 | 11.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 809 | 802 | 7 | 879 | 45 | 70 | 91 | | 纽曼粉 | 811 | 804 | 7 | 887 | 53 | 78 | 99 | | 麦克粉 | 812 | 808 | 4 | 896 | 62 | 87 | 108 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Meal Daily Report" and is dated January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Researcher Information - The researcher is Chen Jiezheng, with a futures practice certificate number of F3045719 and an investment consulting certificate number of Z0015458. The contact email is chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, the 01 contract closed at 3171 with a gain of 21, the 05 contract at 2811 with a gain of 35, and the 09 contract at 2888 with a gain of 17. The spot basis in different regions showed various changes. For example, in Tianjin, it rose from 340 to 370 [3] - For rapeseed meal, the 01 contract closed at 2677 with a gain of 40, the 05 contract at 2419 with a gain of 29, and the 09 contract at 2465 with a gain of 28. The spot basis also changed in different regions, like in Nantong, it decreased from 110 to 81 [3] Monthly Spreads - For soybean meal, the 15 spread was 360 (down 14 from yesterday), the 59 spread was -77 (up 18), and the 91 spread was -283 (down 4). For rapeseed meal, the 15 spread was 258 (up 11), the 59 spread was -46 (up 1), and the 91 spread was -212 (down 12) [3] Cross - Variety Futures Spreads - The 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 494 (down from 513 yesterday), and the 09 spread was 423 (down from 434 yesterday). The 01 oil - meal ratio was 2.583 (down from 2.584 yesterday) [3] Spot Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 601 (up 25 from yesterday), the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 270 (down 10), and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 841 (up 5) [3] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean market continued to rise, possibly supported by recent good exports but with limited overall impact. The domestic soybean meal market also showed significant upward movement, with cost support and concerns about future supply. Rapeseed meal rose following the trend, with limited self - driven positive factors. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The overall supply - demand of the US soybean market is still relatively loose, with obvious downward price pressure in the follow - up. South America's supply - side influence has increased recently. Brazil's new crop planting progress has accelerated but remains at a relatively low level compared to the historical average. Most institutions predict a bumper harvest for Brazil's new crop, and the export volume is expected to increase significantly, but it still depends on the actual yield. Brazil's old crop has shown good export and crushing performance, with obvious export growth. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market is still in a state of relatively loose supply - demand. The oil mill operating rate remains high, the market supply is sufficient, and the提货 volume has increased, while the inventory remains at a high level. Market transactions have recently decreased, and the overall market demand has increased, but there are still uncertainties about future supply. As of January 2, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7533 million tons, the operating rate was 48.23%, the soybean inventory was 7.1025 million tons (an increase of 0.5581 million tons compared to last week, a growth rate of 8.53%, and an increase of 1.158 million tons year - on - year, a growth rate of 19.48%), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.1702 million tons (an increase of 0.0026 million tons compared to last week, a growth rate of 0.22%, and an increase of 0.4866 million tons year - on - year, a growth rate of 71.18%). The domestic rapeseed meal demand has continued to weaken recently, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply remains at a low level, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory remains high, with overall supply pressure still existing [5] Group 6: Logic Analysis - The US soybean market showed a certain rebound after the downward pressure was fully reflected, but the demand support is limited. If the supply side remains at a high level, the overall pressure will still exist. Brazil's short - term weather conditions are good, and the harvest is expected to proceed smoothly, with the pressure of a bumper harvest likely to continue to be reflected. The overall supply - demand of the international soybean market is still relatively loose, and the price is expected to face certain pressure. The recent South American quotes are still firm, and the near - term supply may tighten, which has a certain supporting effect on the price. The domestic soybean arrivals will decrease in the follow - up, and the soybean meal supply may also decrease, providing support for the spot market and driving the recent market. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is still relatively loose, and the price pressure remains. The recent demand for rapeseed meal is still average, and it showed a downward trend due to the influence of supply - side changes. However, affected by the subsequent improvement of the soybean meal spot market, rapeseed meal also showed a follow - up rebound. As the soybean meal spot market is expected to be stronger in the follow - up, the spread between them is expected to narrow. The monthly spread of soybean meal showed a significant strengthening trend, but its sustainability is expected to be limited under the condition of loose future supply. The monthly spread of rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, with limited demand support, and the spread is still under pressure due to the previous upward performance [6] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to reduce long positions - Arbitrage: Narrow the MRM spread - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [7] Group 8: Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the pressing profit data of Brazilian soybeans from February to August 2026, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the changes in pressing profit compared to yesterday [8]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Livestock Daily Report" and was released on January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The current pressure on hog sales has improved, and the spot price has continued to rebound. However, due to the high inventory and large average weight of hogs, the overall supply remains abundant, and the upward space for hog prices is limited. In the short term, the market may have phased support, but in the long term, the overall trend of the hog spot market is expected to be downward [3][5] - The futures price of hogs has generally risen, mainly driven by the increase in the spot price. In the short term, the supply pressure is limited, and the price may have strong support. However, in the medium - term, due to the high inventory, the supply pressure is obvious, and the futures price is expected to decline in the long run [5] Group 4: Price Information Spot Prices - The average spot price of hogs today is 12.92 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in most regions showed an upward trend, with the largest increase of 0.27 yuan/kg in Zhejiang [3] Futures Prices - Futures prices generally rose, with LH01 up 305 to 11830, LH03 down 25 to 11785, LH05 up 5 to 12260, LH07 unchanged at 12940, LH09 down 5 to 13885, and LH11 down 15 to 13875 [3] Sow and Piglet Prices - The price of piglets this week is 251 yuan, up 24 yuan from last week, and the price of sows is 1554 yuan, up 3 yuan from last week [3] Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 increased by 5 to - 945, LH9 - 1 decreased by 310 to 2055, LH9 - 11 increased by 10 to 10, and LH11 - 1 decreased by 320 to 2045 [3] Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 191064 heads, an increase of 1276 heads from yesterday [3] Size - based Hog Price Spreads - The price spreads between different sizes of hogs remained unchanged [3] Group 5: Market Analysis Spot Market - The enthusiasm of large - scale enterprises to sell hogs has increased, but the volume remains low. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell hogs has remained stable. Secondary fattening has continued to enter the market, and the supply of large - weight hogs has increased. The slowdown in the sales rhythm has supported the hog price in the short term. However, due to the high inventory and large average weight of hogs, the supply pressure will continue to be reflected, and the overall upward space for hog prices is limited [3][5] Futures Market - The rise in futures prices is mainly driven by the increase in spot prices. In the short - term, the supply pressure is limited, and the price may have strong support. In the medium - term, due to the high inventory, the supply pressure is obvious, and the upward sustainability of futures prices is limited. In the long - term, the futures price is expected to decline [5] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, adopt a bearish approach - For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see strategy - For options, use the strategy of selling wide straddles [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn market is weak, with inventory reductions but still high production, causing it to oscillate at the bottom. Import profit for foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2,137 yuan. The domestic corn spot market is relatively stable in the short - term, with attention on the seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China and downstream inventory building before the Spring Festival. The starch market is affected by corn prices and downstream stocking. Current starch prices are weak, and corporate profitability is declining [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - C2601 closed at 2,288, down 5 (-0.22%), with a trading volume of 1,778 (down 74.10%) and an open interest of 18,650 (up 1.49%). - C2605 closed at 2,253, up 1 (0.04%), with a trading volume of 136,894 (up 33.67%) and an open interest of 526,948 (up 1.82%). - C2509 closed at 2,280, up 3 (0.13%), with a trading volume of 6,526 (up 17.06%) and an open interest of 45,546 (up 2.57%). - CS2601 closed at 2,485, down 1 (-0.04%), with a trading volume of 1,023 (up 124.34%) and an open interest of 2,400 (down 25.51%). - CS2605 closed at 2,545, down 7 (-0.28%), with a trading volume of 10,474 (up 103.05%) and an open interest of 49,506 (up 13.62%). - CS2509 closed at 2,593, down 5 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 549 (up 268.46%) and an open interest of 1,769 (up 4.86%) [2]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - **Corn**: Today's quotes in different regions range from 2,120 to 2,440 yuan. The price in Qinggang is 2,120 yuan (unchanged), in Songyuan Jiji is 2,180 yuan (down 10), etc. The basis varies from -160 to 160 yuan [2]. - **Starch**: Today's quotes in different regions range from 2,700 to 2,880 yuan, all unchanged. The basis varies from 155 to 335 yuan [2]. 3.1.3 Spreads - **Corn Inter - delivery**: The spread of C01 - C05 is 35 (down 6), C05 - C09 is -27 (down 2), and C09 - C01 is -8 (up 8). - **Starch Inter - delivery**: The spread of CS01 - CS05 is -60 (up 6), CS05 - CS09 is -48 (down 2), and CS09 - CS01 is 108 (down 4). - **Cross - variety**: The spread of CS09 - C09 is 313 (down 8), CS01 - C01 is 197 (up 4), and CS05 - C05 is 292 (down 8) [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn market is oscillating at the bottom. Import profit for foreign corn has increased. The spot price in the northern ports is stable, while the price in the Northeast corn - producing area is weak. The supply in North China has increased, and the price is weak. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price is stable, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large, giving corn a cost - performance advantage. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The short - term corn spot is relatively stable, with attention on the seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China and downstream inventory building before the Spring Festival [4][6]. 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is weak. The starch price in Shandong is around 2,720 yuan, and the spot price in Northeast China is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has risen to 112.5 million tons, a monthly increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 25.1%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price and weak starch price, corporate profitability is declining. The 03 starch contract is oscillating at the bottom, and the corn price in North China may decline in January, with limited upside potential for the 03 starch contract in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Close the long position of 07 corn [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Use a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the closing price of corn at northern ports, the basis of corn 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of corn starch 05 contract, and the spread of corn starch 05 contract [15][16][17][19][21][22]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report - Ferroalloy Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - SF Main Contract: Closing price at 5860, up 84 (1.45%) daily and 184 weekly. Volume was 329,099, up 1,863 daily, and open interest was 257,498, down 11,933 daily [3] - SM Main Contract: Closing price at 6000, up 82 (1.39%) daily and 138 weekly. Volume was 317,087, up 42,537 daily, and open interest was 284,324, up 14,767 daily [3] Spot Market - Ferrosilicon (72% FeSi): Spot prices in different regions showed increases of 30 - 100 yuan/ton in some areas. For example, Inner Mongolia was at 5450, up 90 daily and 50 weekly [3] - Silicomanganese (6517): Spot prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton overall. Inner Mongolia was at 5650, up 20 daily and unchanged weekly [3] Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon Basis: Inner Mongolia - Main Contract was -410, up 6 daily and down 134 weekly [3] - Silicomanganese Basis: Inner Mongolia - Main Contract was -350, down 62 daily and 138 weekly [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was at 41.8, unchanged daily and up 0.3 weekly; South African semi - carbonate was at 35.5, up 0.3 daily and 0.5 weekly [3] - Lanthanum Coke Small Material: Prices in different regions remained stable [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Trading Strategy - Unilateral: With the expectation of improving supply - demand and cost support, prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [5][6] - Arbitrage: Hold off [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] Key Information - Brazil's exports of ferrosilicon with silicon content > 55% in November 2025 were 14,022.8 tons, up 64.95% month - on - month and down 5.87% year - on - year [7] - South Africa's only remaining manganese smelter, Transalloys, warned of possible large - scale layoffs due to high electricity costs [7] Group 4: Related Charts - Charts include ferroalloy main contract trends, SF - SM spreads, monthly spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [10][11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics. The stock index continues to be strong, while the bond market is weak. In the agricultural products sector, there are differences in supply and demand among various varieties. In the black metal and non - ferrous metal sectors, prices are affected by factors such as policies, supply and demand, and geopolitical events. The energy and chemical sector also shows price fluctuations due to geopolitical and supply - demand factors [19][23][26]. Summary by Related Categories Financial Derivatives 1. Stock Index Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: Fluctuations do not change the upward trend. The stock index continued to rise strongly on Tuesday, with all major indices hitting new highs. The market sentiment was high, and short - term stock indices still had upward momentum [19][20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should adopt a strategy of buying on dips; for arbitrage, wait for the discount to widen for IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: With the increase in risk appetite, the bond market tends to be weak. On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and short - term bond markets may continue to be weak, but the space for further adjustment is relatively limited [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading should adopt a wait - and - see approach [24]. Agricultural Products 1. Protein Meal - **Core Viewpoint**: Supply pressure still exists, and US soybeans continue to decline. International soybeans are under cost pressure, but due to the relatively low inventory of South American old crops, the decline in prices may be limited. Domestic soybeans may have some support on the spot side [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be mainly based on range - bound operation; for arbitrage, narrow the MRM spread; for options, use a short straddle strategy [27]. 2. Sugar - **Core Viewpoint**: International sugar prices rose slightly, and domestic sugar prices were slightly stronger. International sugar prices may bottom - oscillate in the short term, and domestic sugar prices may also be slightly stronger, but there is still pressure at the upper shock platform [28][30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: International sugar prices are expected to bottom - oscillate in the short term, and Zheng sugar is expected to be slightly stronger; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options [31]. 3. Oilseeds and Oils - **Core Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the commodity market has improved, and oils have risen. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upside space is restricted. Geopolitical factors may have more emotional impact than real impact [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Oils will oscillate in the short term, and the idea for palm oil is to short at the upper edge of the range after a rebound; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [34]. 4. Corn/Corn Starch - **Core Viewpoint**: US corn is weak, and the spot price of domestic corn is stable in the short term but still under pressure in the long term [35][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: For the outer 03 corn, buy on dips during the bottom - oscillation; for the 07 corn, adopt a strategy of buying on dips; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch; for options, wait and see [37]. 5. Live Hogs - **Core Viewpoint**: Supply pressure still exists, and the spot price oscillates. The overall inventory of live hogs is relatively high, and the supply pressure still exists, so the pig price is still under pressure [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should mainly be based on a short - selling strategy; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use a short straddle strategy [40]. 6. Peanuts - **Core Viewpoint**: Peanut spot prices are stable, and the futures price oscillates at the bottom. The spot price is stable, and the 03 peanut futures have a warehouse - receipt game, but the supply of oil - using peanuts is loose, so the futures price oscillates at the bottom [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The 05 peanut futures will oscillate at the bottom, buy on dips but do not chase the rise; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [42]. 7. Eggs - **Core Viewpoint**: The demand is average, and the egg price rises steadily. In the short term, the near - month contract may oscillate weakly, and the far - month May contract can consider building long positions on dips [44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The February contract is expected to oscillate within a range, and consider building long positions on the far - month May contract; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [46]. 8. Apples - **Core Viewpoint**: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the fruit price oscillates at a high level. The cost of apple warehouse receipts is high, which supports the futures price. If the cold - storage apple delivery can maintain a normal level, the supply may be tight in the future [48][49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Hold the long position of the May contract and short the October contract on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on May and short on October; for options, wait and see [50]. 9. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Core Viewpoint**: The expected planting area in the new year will decline, and the cotton price will oscillate strongly. The expected reduction in the planting area and strong sales progress support the cotton price, but there may be a short - term correction risk [51][52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: US cotton is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and Zheng cotton will oscillate strongly; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [53]. Black Metals 1. Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the steel price oscillates within a range. The steel market is affected by factors such as production resumption, inventory, demand, and policies. Although there is support in the short term, the upward space may be suppressed in the future [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should mainly be based on a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread; for options, wait and see [57]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Core Viewpoint**: They continue to oscillate widely. Affected by macro - sentiment and seasonal factors, the coking coal and coke prices are expected to continue to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to chase the rise [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Do not chase the rise, and try to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [60]. 3. Iron Ore - **Core Viewpoint**: Market expectations are fluctuating, and the ore price oscillates. The global iron ore supply is loose, and the domestic terminal steel demand is declining, so the ore price is expected to oscillate [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The price will oscillate; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [63]. 4. Ferroalloys - **Core Viewpoint**: With the expectation of marginal improvement in supply and demand and cost - push, they are short - term bullish. Both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be short - term bullish due to factors such as supply contraction expectations and cost support [63][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: They are short - term bullish; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [64]. Non - Ferrous Metals 1. Gold and Silver - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors dominate, and they may oscillate strongly in the short term. Affected by geopolitical events and market sentiment, gold and silver prices are expected to remain strong, but attention should be paid to short - term pressure [66][67]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Hold long positions of Shanghai gold and silver cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [67][68]. 2. Platinum and Palladium - **Core Viewpoint**: The sentiment of long - position funds is warming up, and they are back on the upward channel. Platinum is expected to be bullish due to tight supply - demand fundamentals, while palladium may be affected by the macro - environment and show a linkage with platinum [70][71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Go long on platinum on dips based on the MA5 daily line, and wait and see on palladium; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, wait and see [72]. 3. Copper - **Core Viewpoint**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Supported by macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals, the copper price is in an upward trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The upward trend remains unchanged, and control the position to buy on dips; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [74]. 4. Alumina - **Core Viewpoint**: Driven by policy expectations, the alumina price rises. Market concerns about policies related to red mud treatment drive the price up, but the fundamentals change little [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: The price rises driven by policy expectations; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [79]. 5. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Viewpoint**: Shanghai aluminum is running strongly. Driven by factors such as global aluminum shortage expectations and geopolitical risks, the aluminum price is rising, and it is recommended to go long on dips [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Follow the trend, hold long positions and control the position; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [82]. 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Viewpoint**: It runs strongly following the sector. Affected by geopolitical risks and cost factors, the aluminum alloy price rises following the sector, but the trading volume is light [85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It runs strongly following the sector; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [85]. 7. Zinc - **Core Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side, and the zinc price may run at a high level. The zinc market has a complex situation of supply and demand, and the price is mainly affected by macro - factors and capital. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing the rise [87][89]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It runs at a high level, and pay attention to the capital sentiment; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [89]. 8. Lead - **Core Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the changes in domestic social inventory. The lead market has a situation of short - supply and certain consumption resilience. Low inventory and other factors may attract long - position funds, and the price may rise [92]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Buy on dips and pay attention to the impact of the capital side; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner [92]. 9. Nickel - **Core Viewpoint**: Speculation on resource products, and the nickel price returns to the financial attribute. The nickel price is in a large - scale upward trend, and the financial attribute is restored. It is recommended to follow the trend, but be vigilant against correction risks [93]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Adopt a bullish strategy and be vigilant against correction risks; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [94][96]. 10. Stainless Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: It follows the nickel price and runs strongly. Affected by factors such as nickel ore quota contraction and tight hot - rolled resources, the stainless - steel price follows the nickel price, but the upward drive is weaker [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Follow the rise of the nickel price; for arbitrage, wait and see [98]. 11. Industrial Silicon - **Core Viewpoint**: It is short - term bullish and bearish in the medium - term. The industrial silicon market has a situation of high production and possible inventory accumulation, but it may rebound in the short term due to market sentiment. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [100][101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It is short - term bullish and short on rallies in the medium - term; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [102]. 12. Polysilicon - **Core Viewpoint**: The downstream price rises, the spot transaction center moves up, and it is bullish. Driven by the self - discipline of the photovoltaic industry chain, the polysilicon price is expected to be bullish in the long - term, but be cautious in the short - term [103]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It is bullish, but be cautious and pay attention to risk control; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; for options, sell put options [104]. 13. Lithium Carbonate - **Core Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is optimistic, and the price runs strongly. Although there may be inventory accumulation in January, the price is difficult to fall deeply due to the replenishment demand of upstream and downstream. The long - term trend is good [106]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Control the position and operate cautiously [107]. 14. Tin - **Core Viewpoint**: Driven by AI demand, the tin price rises with increasing positions. Affected by geopolitical events and AI demand, the tin price rises, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption realization [109][112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Follow the logic of long - position funds to trade; for options, wait and see [112]. Shipping - **Core Viewpoint**: The spot price is peaking, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The container shipping market is in a situation of price game, and the demand is expected to improve. Attention should be paid to the adjustment rhythm of shipping companies and geopolitical impacts [114]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract should be closed on rallies, and the remaining light positions can be held at discretion; for arbitrage, wait and see [114][116]. Energy and Chemicals 1. Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to fluctuate widely. Affected by the situation in Venezuela and other geopolitical factors, the crude - oil price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the Brent main - contract price range [118][119]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It will fluctuate widely; for arbitrage, domestic gasoline is relatively strong, diesel is relatively weak, and the crude - oil monthly spread is strong; for options, wait and see [119]. 2. Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: The raw - material contradiction dominates, and the asphalt price oscillates at a high level. The asphalt market is affected by raw - material supply and demand. Although the demand is in the off - season, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [121][122]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It will oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [122]. 3. Fuel Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors cause frequent disturbances, and the price fluctuation intensifies. Affected by the situation in Venezuela and other factors, the fuel - oil price fluctuates strongly. Attention should be paid to the development of the situation in Venezuela [124][125]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: It is short - term bullish, but be vigilant against geopolitical risks and do not chase the rise; for arbitrage, pay attention to the FU59 positive spread opportunity, and both low - sulfur and high - sulfur cracking are weak; for options, wait and see [125][126]. 4. Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: TTF/JKM oscillates at a low level, and HH searches for support downward. Affected by temperature and inventory factors, the natural - gas price is expected to decline in the long - term, and the short position of the third - quarter TTF contract can be held [127][128]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Hold the short position of the third - quarter TTF or JKM contract; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [129]. 5. LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Supported by geopolitical premium. Affected by factors such as the rise in Saudi CP prices and geopolitical risks, the LPG price has support in the short - term, but it is under pressure in the long - term [130][131]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Pay attention to the follow