Group 1: Report's Overall View - The industry may face a pullback risk, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [3] Group 2: Fundamental Situation Price Changes - From September 22nd to September 26th, most prices in the polysilicon industry chain remained stable. Compared with the end of July and August, polysilicon spot prices had significant increases. For example, the average price of N - type dense material increased by 12.20% compared to the end of July and 6.35% compared to the end of August. PV wafer prices also rose, with the average price of N - type 183mm wafers increasing by 12.50% compared to the end of July and 9.76% compared to the end of August. PV cell prices had different degrees of increase, while some distributed project component prices decreased slightly, and some centralized project component prices had a small increase [14] Supply - Demand Balance - The polysilicon supply - demand balance varied from month to month in 2025. From January to June, there was a shortage in most months, with the largest shortage of 2.13 million tons in April. From July to October, there was a surplus, with the largest surplus of 2.75 million tons in August. In November and December, there was a shortage again. The total supply - demand balance for the year showed a shortage of 1.19 million tons [38] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - No specific content provided in the given text

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - For the week from September 18 - 24, 2025, the spot prices of various industrial silicon grades showed increases compared to the previous weekend and last month's end. For example, the East China oxygen - blown 553 spot price rose from 9350 yuan/ton on September 18 to 9500 yuan/ton on September 24, a 1.60% increase from the previous weekend and 4.97% from the end of last month [14]. - The prices of downstream products also had changes. The N - type dense polycrystalline silicon material price decreased by 0.29% compared to the previous weekend but increased by 6.25% from the end of last month, while the DMC price increased by 2.31% from the previous weekend and 2.79% from the end of last month [14]. Supply and Demand Data - From January to December 2025, industrial silicon production, imports, and the production of related silicon products showed fluctuations. The total supply in September 2025 was 41.60 thousand tons, with production of 39.80 thousand tons and no imports [15]. - The production of downstream products such as polycrystalline silicon, DMC, and aluminum alloys also varied. The total consumption in September 2025 was 41.32 thousand tons, resulting in a supply - demand balance of 0.28 thousand tons [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the coal price is expected to continue its downward trend, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to reach new highs, and the overall domestic supply will be relatively abundant. The import volume is expected to drop to 125 - 130 tons, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. The overall demand in October has no increment, and it is difficult for traditional demand to show bright spots under the mediocre macro - background [5][91]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in October. Attention should be paid to the impact of gas restrictions in Iran, with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton [6][91]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Foreword Summary - In October, on the supply side, after the peak summer coal - using season ends, the coal price is expected to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to rise, and the overall supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [5]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [6][7][91]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In September 2025, the spot price of methanol in mainstream domestic regions showed an overall oscillating and weakening trend. The macro - environment had some support for domestic commodities, but the methanol futures returned to the fundamentals due to factors such as the high port inventory, showing a weak downward trend [11][12]. - On the supply side, the coal - to - methanol profit was high, and the supply in the inland market was loose. In the port area, the MTO device operating rate was stable. The international device operating rate declined from a high level, and the methanol price was weakly operating [17][23][29]. (2) Supply Analysis - From the end of this year to the first half of next year, there will still be some new methanol production capacities put into operation. In 2025, the domestic methanol planned new capacity is 1010 tons, but the actual new capacity for external sales is only 190 tons [31][37]. - In September, the new domestic methanol device production was limited. The coal price first rose and then fell, and the coal - to - methanol profit remained high. The coal - to - methanol operating rate was high, and the domestic supply was loose. In October, the coal price is expected to continue to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will still be high. The domestic supply will remain loose, and the enterprise inventory is expected to gradually accumulate [34][41][51]. (3) October Import Forecast - From January to September 2025, the domestic cumulative imported methanol is expected to be about 9.7 million tons. In 2024, the international new methanol capacity was 3.83 million tons, and there will still be a large amount of new international capacity in 2025 [54][62]. - Due to some Iranian devices being shut down, the daily output decreased from 40,000 tons to around 30,000 tons. The October import volume is expected to be maintained at 1.25 million tons. The port inventory accumulation may end [64][67]. (4) October Demand Slightly Increases, but the Macro - level Pressure Remains High - The macro - economic recovery is slow. The manufacturing PMI in August showed some improvement, but trade and geopolitical conflicts still interfere with the domestic macro - situation [73]. - In October, there is no new MTO device put into operation. Some MTO devices are under the pressure of being eliminated. The traditional downstream demand in September is difficult to increase, and the fundamental situation of each sector is differentiated [78][80][88]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - In October, on the supply side, the coal price will decline, the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high, and the domestic supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [91]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [91].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall trend of precious metals is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the US government shutdown crisis, geopolitical conflicts, and the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China and high uncertainties in the overseas market, it is advisable to reduce positions on futures at high prices [5]. - Copper prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic data, supply disruptions, and weakening consumption. Short - term copper prices may have a correction, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions [7][10]. - Alumina is expected to maintain a weak operation due to the over - supply situation, import window opening, and the limited impact of policies on capacity investment [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and the alloy ingot spot price remains stable and slightly strong [19][20]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, with possible seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback on prices if demand does not recover rapidly [23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but there is still a risk of further decline if there is a large - scale delivery in LME. The supply of refined zinc may increase in October, and consumption is expected to remain weak [27][28][29]. - Lead prices may decline as the supply of lead ingots is expected to increase while consumption shows no obvious improvement [35][36]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with a relatively flat downstream consumption trend and a surplus in the refined nickel market, and attention should be paid to import and visible inventory changes [38][39]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with increased production in September but no obvious seasonal peak in demand, and cost support at the bottom [43][45]. - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips, as the inventory structure is prone to positive feedback between futures and spot prices, and there are uncertainties in supply and demand [48]. - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to exit long positions first and then re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday [50][51][52]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with limited supply growth, strong demand, and continuous inventory depletion [55]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with a tight supply at the mine end, weak demand, and slow improvement in the short - term fundamentals [56][60][61]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed up 0.28% at $3758.78 per ounce, and London silver closed up 2% at $46.032 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - The US dollar index fell 0.4% to 98.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield weakened to 4.164%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.04% to 7.1349 [3]. Important Information - US macro - data such as PCE price index and consumer confidence index were released, and the Fed's interest - rate decision probability was predicted [4][5]. - The US government faces a shutdown crisis, and there are signs of an escalation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [5]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices on futures and reduce positions to lock in profits [5]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper futures fell 0.79% to 81890 yuan per ton, and LME copper fell 0.69% to $10205 per ton. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 14.44 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1228 tons to 32.22 million tons [7]. Important Information - China's power generation capacity data, the possible delay of the US employment report, and relevant industry policies were released [8][9]. - Argentina approved a copper project, and Grasberg's production is expected to decline [9][10]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices before the holiday, hold light positions, and consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [7]. Alumina Market Review - Alumina futures fell 49 yuan to 2867 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - Industry policies on alumina project investment were introduced, and information on production capacity, raw material prices, and imports was provided [13][14][17]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Cast aluminum alloy futures fell 115 yuan to 20200 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [19]. Important Information - Policies affecting the recycled aluminum industry were introduced, and the inventory of aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [19]. Trading Strategy - Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Shanghai aluminum futures fell 115 yuan to 20660 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [22]. Important Information - US economic data and electrolytic aluminum inventory changes were reported [22]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 1.23% to $2886.5 per ton, and Shanghai zinc fell 1.5% to 21705 yuan per ton. Spot trading was dull [27]. Important Information - Zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and domestic and imported zinc ore processing fees showed different trends [27]. Trading Strategy - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but pay attention to the risk of further decline if there is large - scale delivery in LME. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.37% to $2001.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead fell 0.09% to 17075 yuan per ton. Spot trading was general [31]. Important Information - The profitability of recycled lead smelters improved, and the production of lead batteries showed different trends [31][32]. Trading Strategy - Lead prices may decline, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell $85 to $15155 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1050 yuan to 120790 yuan per ton. Spot premiums showed different trends [38]. Important Information - Industry policies on resource exploration and a nickel mine exploration right auction were reported [38][39]. Trading Strategy - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Stainless steel futures fell 85 yuan to 12765 yuan per ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [42]. Important Information - India approved the BIS certification for steel from Taiwan, China [43]. Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [46]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and some spot prices strengthened [48]. Important Information - China's industrial silicon export data was reported, and there were rumors about production capacity expansion [48]. Trading Strategy - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [48]. Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures rebounded from the bottom, and spot prices were stable [50][51]. Important Information - A research on EU solar component production capacity was reported [51]. Trading Strategy - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction. Exit long positions first and re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday. Do reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts and sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [51][52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Lithium carbonate futures fell 1160 yuan to 72880 yuan per ton, and spot prices decreased [53]. Important Information - News about China's new energy vehicle development and a battery project was reported [53][55]. Trading Strategy - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [56]. Tin Market Review - Tin futures fell 0.12% to 273220 yuan per ton, and spot trading was not ideal [56]. Important Information - US PCE price index data and industry policies were reported [58][59]. Trading Strategy - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [61].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soda ash, near October, with macro uncertainties and holiday stock - up, prices are expected to be stable and strong before the holiday. For trading strategies, it's suggested to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options, and expect a stable - to - strong price trend for the single - side trade [16] - For glass, it's expected to show an oscillating trend before the holiday. The single - side trade may see price oscillations, and it's recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options. There's also a suggestion of a long - glass and short - soda - ash strategy [25] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Core Logic Analysis 1.1 Soda Ash Supply - This week's soda ash production was 74.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (-2%). Both heavy and light soda decreased. The daily production was 10.6 - 10.8 tons. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance in some companies and increased with the recovery of others. Boyuan Phase II was ignited on Friday. Juhua has a maintenance plan in October. Seasonal maintenance is rare, and supply is at a high level. Some manufacturers raised prices this week. The cost increased slightly due to rising coal prices. The theoretical profits of both the soda - ammonia method and the combined - alkali method decreased [8] 1.2 Soda Ash Demand - This week's apparent demand for soda ash was 78.8 tons, a 0.2% week - on - week increase. Heavy - soda demand decreased by 2.8%, and light - soda demand increased by 4.6%. Float glass and photovoltaic glass production were stable, and a 1200 - ton photovoltaic glass production line is planned to be ignited next week. To avoid macro uncertainties, middle and downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday, with a shipment rate of over 100% in all regions, and upstream inventory decreased. The spot price in some areas increased, and the term - week shipment was poor [11] 1.3 Soda Ash Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased, with the factory inventory at 175.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.2 tons. Social inventory increased by 10.7% to 61.5 tons. The inventory of float - glass enterprises increased, with 33% of sample factories having 21.48 days of inventory, a 5.1% week - on - week increase [15] 1.4 Soda Ash Market Outlook - Market performance was weak this week, first rising and then falling. Before the holiday, prices are expected to be stable and strong due to holiday stock - up and macro uncertainties. For trading strategies, it's suggested to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options, and expect a stable - to - strong price trend for the single - side trade [16] 2.1 Glass Supply - Float - glass daily production was 16 tons, stable, with 225 production lines. The weekly average profits of float - glass using different fuels changed. The supply side is not in the centralized cold - repair area, and enterprises are in a wait - and - see state [19] 2.2 Glass Demand - In the Shahe market, demand was weak at the beginning of the week and then strengthened. In the Central China market, some middle - link enterprises stocked up, and most enterprises raised prices. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises increased by 7.8% week - on - week and 8.3% year - on - year. The operating rate of China's LOW - E glass sample enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week [22] 2.3 Glass Market Outlook - Anti - involution sentiment continued, and some manufacturers in Central and North China raised prices, leading to increased purchasing by middle and downstream enterprises. The real - estate completion data showed a marginal improvement. The overall inventory decreased by 1.1% week - on - week. Before the holiday, prices are expected to oscillate. For trading strategies, it's suggested to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options, and expect price oscillations for the single - side trade [25] 2. Weekly Data Tracking Soda Ash Futures and Spot Prices - Heavy - soda spot prices in some regions were stable, while in others, they increased slightly. Futures prices of different contracts also changed, and the basis and spreads between contracts showed various trends [28] Soda Ash Supply Data - Production, operating rates (by process and region), and equipment - maintenance situations were presented. Production decreased week - on - week, and operating rates in some regions and processes changed [64] Soda Ash Profit Data - The costs and profits of different production methods (ammonia - alkali and combined - alkali) changed week - on - week and year - on - year. Glass profits using different fuels also had corresponding changes [85] Soda Ash Inventory Data - Factory inventory decreased week - on - week, and inventory in different regions showed different trends. The average available days of inventory also decreased [93] Soda Ash Import and Export Data - Monthly import and export volumes and their year - on - year and month - on - month changes were presented, as well as import and export data by region [103] Soda Ash Demand Data - Apparent demand, heavy - and light - soda demand, and enterprise backlog days were shown [127] Glass Futures and Spot Prices - Spot prices of glass in different regions changed, and futures prices of different contracts increased. The basis and spreads between contracts also showed various trends [130] Glass Supply Data - Float - glass daily melting volume, operating rate, production - line changes, and loss volume were presented. Production was stable, and some production lines had cold - repair or ignition operations [138] Glass Profit Data - The profits of float - glass using different fuels changed week - on - week and month - on - month [148] Glass Inventory Data - Overall inventory, inventory in Shahe and Hubei, and the average available days of inventory showed different trends [150] Glass Demand Data - Demand structure, apparent demand, production - sales ratio in different regions, glass - deep - processing production, and order days were presented. The production - sales ratio in some regions improved, and deep - processing orders increased [164]

| | | | | 1 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7 œ | 0 | O 1 | 0 1 > | O | 2 | O œ | | | | | 美联储降息预期提高，铜价高位盘整 | | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 | 2 | | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 | 3 | | | 一、 | 行情回顾 | 3 | | | 二、 | 行情展望 | 3 | | | 第二部分 | | 铜矿扰动增加，供应紧张的情况难以缓解 5 | | | 一、 铜精矿供应增量骤降 | | 5 | | | 二、 | | 全球废铜供应错配，国内废铜供应紧张 8 | | | 三、 原料供应不足向冶炼端传导加速 | | 9 | | | 第三部分 | 消费面分析 | 12 | | | 一、 | 国内需求分化 | 12 | | | 二、 | | 新能源对全球消费的带动边际走弱 17 | | | 三 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Precious Metals 10 - Month Report (September 29, 2025)" [4][15][18] - Report Theme: "Multiple factors resonate, and the strength of precious metals remains unchanged" [4] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - The report presents the disk trends of London Gold, London Silver, Shanghai Gold, and Shanghai Silver, but specific analysis of the trends is not provided in the given content [12][14] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - **Employment Data**: The report shows data on US new non - farm employment numbers, new non - farm and ADP employment numbers (3 - month average), labor participation rate, and new non - farm employment structure, which can reflect the situation of the US labor market [24][28] - **Inflation Data**: The US CPI year - on - year and CPI sub - item data are presented, including the month - on - month and year - on - year changes of various sub - items such as food, energy, and core CPI, which help to understand the inflation situation in the United States [33][34] - **Asset Price Data**: The US Manheim used - car price index and Zillow rent index are shown, which can reflect the price trends of related assets [36][37] - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The CME FedWatch data shows the probability of different interest rate ranges at different FOMC meeting dates, reflecting the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions [38] - **Fiscal Situation**: The US government budget balance, fiscal deficit, and fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP are presented, which can reflect the US fiscal situation [43][44] Group 4: Fundamental Factors - **US Debt and Interest Expenses**: The US debt level and interest expenses are presented, which can affect the economic and financial situation [48][49] - **Gold Supply and Demand**: The gold supply and demand balance sheet shows data on gold supply (including mine production, producer net hedging, and recycled gold) and demand (including jewelry manufacturing, investment, and central bank purchases) from 2014 to 2025H1, and their year - on - year changes. For example, in 2025H1, total gold supply was 2,423 tons, a 1% increase year - on - year, and total demand was 2,385 tons, a 13% increase year - on - year [51] - **China's Gold Market**: Data on China's gold production, imports, consumption, and related inventory are presented, which can reflect the situation of the Chinese gold market [55] - **Gold ETF and CFTC Positions**: Data on different regions' gold ETF net flows, gold CFTC positions, and China's silver production, exports, and various inventory data (LBMA, COMEX, SHFE, SGE) are presented [57][59][64] - **Silver in the Photovoltaic Industry**: Forecasts of the world's new photovoltaic installed capacity, China's new photovoltaic cell production, TOPCon battery silver paste consumption trends, and photovoltaic silver powder production are presented, which can reflect the demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry [72][73] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - No specific content about future outlook and strategy recommendations is provided in the given text, only the title is shown [78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market is in the transition from the "policy bottom" to the "market bottom." The macro - expectation is uncertain with the upcoming 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. The market is sensitive to the "anti - involution" policy, but the spot - end fundamentals improvement is limited, and the large mid - stream inventory is a major concern [2][10]. - After the holiday, the supply pressure of soda ash and glass may become apparent. The large mid - stream inventory will suppress prices. It is expected that the prices will decline after the holiday, but the decline will be limited. Attention should be paid to the policy strength, delivery - month warehouse receipts, and the implementation of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe [2][3][5]. - In the long - term, in the context of global liquidity easing and clear anti - involution policies, the structural market will continue. However, one should be vigilant about the accumulation of industrial contradiction risks if the fundamentals do not improve [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis 3.1.1 Market Review - Futures: In September, the futures price of the main soda ash contract first rose and then fell, being stable with a slight upward trend. The price range moved down. The SA2601 - 05 spread showed a reverse - spread trend, and the basis of SA2601 was at a premium [8]. - Spot: Soda ash manufacturers' prices first decreased and then increased. The end - of - month prices of heavy soda ash in different regions showed different changes compared to the beginning of the month [8]. 3.1.2 Policy and Market Transition - The market is in the transition from the "policy bottom" to the "market bottom." The "anti - involution" policy expectation is sensitive, but the price is still anchored by fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipts in the delivery month [10]. 3.1.3 Production and Inventory - Production: In September, the monthly production of soda ash was about 3.263 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The weekly production reached a historical high of 777,000 tons. After the holiday, the supply pressure may be reflected in the upstream inventory [17]. - Inventory: The downstream replenished inventory before the holiday, and the upstream executed previous orders. The soda ash shipment rate was above the balance throughout the month. The factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [30][31]. 3.1.4 Downstream Demand - Photovoltaic glass: By the end of September, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass increased slightly, but the demand weakened. The inventory pressure increased significantly, and there are long - term concerns about demand decline [34][35]. - Light soda ash: The demand showed natural growth, and the inventory turned to destocking at the end of September. The performance of downstream industries was mixed [39]. 3.1.5 Export and Import - Export: Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the soda ash export has recovered. It is expected to maintain a high - level monthly average of over 1.6 million tons in 2025. The export volume in August 2025 was 215,000 tons, an increase of 54,000 tons from the previous month [44]. - Import: The import window is closed, and the import volume is almost zero. In August 2025, the import volume was 0.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.27 million tons from the previous month [44]. 3.1.6 Raw Material Prices and Costs - The spot prices weakened, and enterprise profits narrowed. The theoretical profits of ammonia - soda and combined - soda methods decreased. The prices of raw materials such as动力煤, ammonium chloride, and coke showed different trends [48][49]. 3.2 Glass Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Market Review - Futures: In September, the main glass contract FG2601 showed an upward - trending oscillation. The price fluctuation range widened. The 01 - 05 and 11 - 01 contract spreads declined, and the basis shrank [59]. - Spot: Affected by environmental protection and pre - holiday stocking, the downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and enterprises raised the spot prices [59]. 3.2.2 Supply - The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged at the end of the month. The number of operating production lines was 225, and the operating rate was 75.7%. There was no ignition or cold - repair of production lines in September, but the supply increased slightly [60]. 3.2.3 Demand - In September, the weekly average apparent demand for glass increased by 7.6% month - on - month. The demand in the traditional peak season improved, but the high mid - stream inventory still suppressed prices. The future demand is expected to decline at a slower pace, but it is still weak year - on - year [69]. 3.2.4 Real Estate Policy and Market - The real estate policy focuses on urban renewal. The completion in 2025 is still under pressure. The real estate sales decline narrowed in August, but the construction and completion areas continued to decline year - on - year [75][76]. 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - The glass cost decreased with the fall of soda ash prices, but the fuel prices (coal and petroleum coke) increased, affecting the profit of different fuel - based glass production [80].

尿素月报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 供需偏弱，尿素延续震荡格局 第一部分 前言概要 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【综合分析】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | | | 二、供应分析-新增投产多集中于下半年 7 | | | 三、出口影响逐渐消退 | 13 | | 四、10 | | 月份需求有望释放，宏观层面有望出台刺激政策 15 | | 第三部分 | | 后市展望及策略推荐 21 | 煤化板块研发报告 【综合分析】 10 月份基本面展望，供应端，检修装置陆续回归，新增产能不断释放， 国内供应整体将持续攀升，预计日产将持续维持在 20 万吨以上。需求端来 看，农业需求整体疲软，秋季肥需求收尾，不过东北冬储连续启动，淡储企 业逢低储备，但出口期限临近，关注政策变动。10 月份尿素整体依旧承压 为主。 【策略推荐】 1、单边：中旬之前偏震荡，中旬之后在没有新政策的背景下高空为主 中旬之前，复合肥开工率平稳，秋季肥陆续收尾，农业需求结束，出口落地， 2、套利 跨期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Near - term oil prices are subject to many disturbances. Geopolitical tensions push up prices, but supply - side pressure remains significant. OPEC+ may increase production. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade in the range of $67.8 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Cost support is strong, but demand is weak in the short term due to the approaching holiday and rainy weather. Supply remains high. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and crack spreads are expected to be bearish in the medium term [3][4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are suppressed by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing while demand lacks a clear driver [5][6][7]. - **PX & PTA**: PX is in a tight balance with a reduced de - stocking rate. PTA's supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and inventory accumulation pressure is not large. Prices are mainly affected by the macro - environment and cost [7][9][10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weaker than last year. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - **Short Fiber**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices, but processing fees are expected to remain low [13][15]. - **PR (Bottle Chip)**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices. Processing fees are expected to fluctuate at a low level as demand transitions from peak to off - peak [15][16]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: In the short term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment. In the long term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and prices are expected to decline [18][19][20]. - **Propylene**: Supply is increasing, and the market is overall loose. Downstream product profits are poor. It is recommended to short on rebounds [20][21][22]. - **Plastic PP**: Supply is expected to face new capacity releases, and demand in October is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see during the holiday and short on rebounds in the medium term [22][23][24]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is currently in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term trading focuses on weak reality, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is positive [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions lightly during the holiday [26][27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Before the holiday, prices are expected to remain stable. After the holiday, the market may be weak. It is recommended to hold light or no positions during the holiday [30][31][32]. - **Glass**: Before the holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. Demand is relatively weak, and the sustainability of the upward trend needs attention [33][34][35]. - **Log**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [35][36][38]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [39][40]. - **Pulp**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak, but the market is stabilizing. It is recommended to buy on dips [40][41][42]. - **Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber**: It is recommended to short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [43][44][45]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BR 11 contract should be observed after hitting the stop - loss. Hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501 [47][48]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 rose $0.74 to $65.72 per barrel (+1.14%); Brent2511 rose $0.71 to $70.13 per barrel (+1.02%); SC2511 rose to 495 yuan per barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Iraq's northern oil pipeline resumes operation; OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day; the US asks India to reduce Russian oil purchases [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect wide - range fluctuations, with the intraday range of the Brent main contract at $67.8 - 70 per barrel; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracks are weak; options: wait and see [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3463 points at night (+0.35%); BU2512 closed at 3425 points at night (+0.50%). Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [3]. - **Related News**: Demand in different regions is different, and crude oil price increases support asphalt prices, but some refineries are still accumulating inventory [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect range - bound fluctuations; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to weaken; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 closed at 2972 (+1.99%); LU11 closed at 3525 (+1.59%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [5]. - **Related News**: Nigerian refinery lays off workers; Russian refinery is attacked [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and the LU near - month contract will fluctuate with crude oil; arbitrage: consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [6][7]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 closed at 6690 at night (+0.51%); TA601 closed at 4670 at night (+0.52%). PX spot prices fell, and PTA spot trading was weak [7]. - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates increased, and polyester operating rates decreased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [10][11]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 closed at 4238 at night (+0.59%). Spot and futures basis are given [11]. - **Related News**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol decreased, and downstream sales were poor [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect weak fluctuations; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [12][13]. Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 closed at 6350 at night (+0.38%). Spot prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Related News**: Downstream sales were poor [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 closed at 5820 at night (+0.31%). Spot trading was light [15]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip operating rate decreased, and polyester operating rates decreased slightly [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [16][18]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5921 at night (+0.30%); EB2511 closed at 6969 at night (+0.29%). Spot prices in different regions are given [18]. - **Related News**: The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: long pure benzene and short styrene; options: wait and see [19][20]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 closed at 6396 at night (+0.49%). Spot prices in different regions are given [20][21]. - **Related News**: The propylene operating rate increased [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short on rebounds; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell put options [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: Spot prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions showed different trends [22][23]. - **Related News**: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: wait and see during the holiday, and short on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [23][24]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices of caustic soda in different regions changed [24]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term focus on weak reality, medium - term focus on long opportunities; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [25][26]. PVC - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices fluctuated slightly, and trading was light [27]. - **Related News**: The price of calcium carbide decreased [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions lightly during the holiday; arbitrage: conduct 1 - 5 and 3 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage; options: wait and see [27][28][30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [30]. - **Related News**: Soda ash production reached a historical high, and inventory decreased [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday. Hold light or no positions during the holiday; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [31][32][33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [33]. - **Related News**: Glass production increased, inventory decreased, and profits improved slightly [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to fluctuate before the holiday. Pay attention to demand and the sustainability of the upward trend; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [34][35]. Log - **Market Review**: Spot prices of logs in different regions are stable, and the 11 - month contract fluctuated slightly [35]. - **Related News**: The number of incoming log ships increased, and inventory decreased [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the LG2511 contract on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell LG2511 - C - 820 [38][39]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market Review**: Spot prices of offset printing paper are stable, and raw material prices changed slightly [39]. - **Related News**: Production and inventory of offset printing paper increased [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the 01 contract; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell OP2601 - C - 4500 [40]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp decreased, and spot prices of different pulp types changed [40][41]. - **Related News**: A new pulp project was put into operation [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: wait and see and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread; options: wait and see [42][43]. Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Futures prices of natural rubber and No. 20 rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [43][44]. - **Related News**: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract; arbitrage: conduct the spread trade of BR2511 - RU2601; options: wait and see [45][46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The futures price of butadiene rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [47]. - **Related News**: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: observe after hitting the stop - loss; arbitrage: hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501; options: wait and see [48][49].