Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Ore Daily Report [2] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [2] Group 2: Futures Prices - DCE01 price: 732.0, unchanged from yesterday [2] - DCE05 price: 761.5, unchanged from yesterday [2] - DCE09 price: 744.0, up 1.0 from yesterday [2] - I01 - I05 spread: -29.5, unchanged from yesterday [2] - I05 - I09 spread: 17.5, down 1.0 from yesterday [2] - I09 - I01 spread: 12.0, up 1.0 from yesterday [2] Group 3: Spot Prices - PB powder (60.8%) price: 763, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman powder price: 763, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - Mac powder price: 755, down 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - Jinbuba powder (60.5%) price: 716, up 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - Roy Hill powder price: 753, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - Super Special powder price: 653, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - BRBF (62.5%) price: 784, down 10 from the day before yesterday [2] - BRBF (63%) price: 790, down 10 from the day before yesterday [2] - FMG price: 709, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - Carajás powder price: 864, up 6 from the day before yesterday [2] - Karara concentrate price: 846, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] - Ukrainian concentrate price: 835, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] - IOC6 price: 738, up 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - KUMBA price: 832, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] - SP10 price: 689, up 4 from the day before yesterday [2] - Minmetals standard powder price: 774, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] Group 4: Basis and Spread - Optimal delivery product: BRBF (63%) [2] - 01 factory warehouse basis: 63 [2] - 05 factory warehouse basis: 34 [2] - 09 factory warehouse basis: 52 [2] - Carajás powder - PB powder spread: 97, up 4 from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 47, up 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - Carajás powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 148, up 5 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 51, up 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman lump - Newman powder spread: 86, up 5 from the day before yesterday [2] - Roy Hill lump - Roy Hill powder spread: 19, up 5 from the day before yesterday [2] - Mac powder - Super Special powder spread: 102, down 3 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB powder - Super Special powder spread: 114, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] - PB lump - PB powder spread: 78, up 4 from the day before yesterday [2] Group 5: Index and Spread - Platts 61% iron ore price: 100.2, up 1.5 from the day before yesterday [2] - Platts 65% iron ore price: 116.5, up 1.5 from the day before yesterday [2] - Platts 58% iron ore price: 91.9, up 0.5 from the day before yesterday [2] - SGX main - DCE01 spread: 4.4, up 0.9 from the day before yesterday [2] - SGX main - DCE05 spread: 0.7, up 0.7 from the day before yesterday [2] - SGX main - DCE09 spread: 3.0, up 0.8 from the day before yesterday [2] Group 6: Import Profit - Carajás powder import profit: -1, up 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman powder import profit: 51, down 4 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB powder import profit: 22, down 7 from the day before yesterday [2] - Jinbuba powder import profit: 53, down 5 from the day before yesterday [2] - Super Special powder import profit: 5, down 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB lump import profit: 112, down 6 from the day before yesterday [2] - BRBF import profit: 11, down 14 from the day before yesterday [2] - Mac powder import profit: 45, down 7 from the day before yesterday [2] - FMG import profit: 6, down 2 from the day before yesterday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. Corn spot in North China is strong, while that in Northeast China is stable. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The corn spot still has room to fall, and the 03 corn contract will also decline, but the decline space of the 07 corn contract is limited [2][4][6]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot in Shandong is strong. The starch spot in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. It is expected that the 03 starch contract on the disk will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Quotes**: The closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interests, and open interest change rates of multiple corn and corn starch futures contracts are provided. For example, the closing price of C2601 is 2264, with a price increase of 7 and a price change rate of 0.31%, a trading volume of 274 with a decrease rate of 25.75%, and an open interest of 3448 with an increase rate of 0.17% [1]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices and price changes of corn and starch in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of corn in Qinggang is 2135, with no price change; the spot price of starch in Longfeng is 2730, with no price change. The basis of corn and starch is also provided, such as the basis of C2601 is - 173 [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads and their price changes of corn inter - period, starch inter - period, and cross - variety are provided. For example, the spread of C01 - C05 is - 22, with a price change of - 5; the spread of CS01 - CS05 is - 8, with a price change of 1 [1][3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn price has fallen back but is still oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The northern port's flat - warehouse price is stable, and the Northeast corn spot is stable. The supply in North China has decreased before the Spring Festival, and the spot is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The 03 contract is oscillating in a narrow range, and the spot basis is strengthening [2][4]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot in Shandong is strong. The starch spot in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price has started to weaken but is still higher than last year. The price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 03 starch contract is oscillating strongly following the corn, and the starch spot has stabilized in the short term [5]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Go long on the 07 and 05 corn contracts on dips [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 3 - 7 corn contracts, and go long on the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts on dips [7]. 3.4 Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [8]. 3.5 Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the northern port's corn flat - warehouse price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [12][14][16][18][19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peanut spot price is expected to be relatively stable in the short term, with the supply increasing and the downstream demand remaining weak. The peanut futures are oscillating at a high level, and the market is trading on the ample supply of oil peanuts and the low import price. However, the cost of warehouse receipts is still relatively high. The 05 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom, and the oil peanuts are still in ample supply [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures盘面**: PK604 closed at 7948, up 6 (0.08%), with a trading volume of 11,096 (-25.31%) and an open interest of 54,358 (-2.54%); PK610 closed at 8268, up 24 (0.29%), with a trading volume of 275 (189.47%) and an open interest of 2,736 (0.37%); PK601 closed at 8258, with no change data available for some fields [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7400, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with no change. The basis for these regions was -548, 52, and 52 respectively. The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3250, and the price of Rizhao soybean meal was 3040, with no change. The price of peanut oil was 14300, and the price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8490, up 20. The import prices of Sudanese peanuts and Senegalese peanuts were 8600 and 7500 respectively, with no change [1][3] - **Spreads**: The spread between PK01 - PK04 was 310 (no change data available), the spread between PK04 - PK10 was -320, down 18, and the spread between PK10 - PK01 was 10 (no change data available) [1] Second Part: Market Analysis - The peanut prices in Henan are stable, and those in the Northeast are relatively strong. The mainstream purchase prices of peanut oil mills are stable, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills is 7800 yuan/ton. The price of soybean oil has increased, while the price of peanut oil is stable. The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal is stable, and the peanut meal is relatively strong in the short term [3][5] Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: For the 05 peanut contract, go long lightly after a pull - back [8] - **Monthly Spread**: Wait and see [9] - **Options**: Sell the pk603 - P - 8200 option at a high price [10] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six figures including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 4 - 10 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [12][15][19]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 02 月 10 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 9 【交易策略】 单边：节前维持震荡偏弱走势 套利：建议逢高做空卷煤比，做空卷螺差继续持有。 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3190 元（-），北京敬业 3120 元（-），上海鞍钢热卷 3240 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3140 元（-）。 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面维持震荡偏弱走势，钢材期货价格继续下探。上周钢联数据公布， 五大材整体减产，但铁水仍然增产，钢厂陆续进入节日停产检修的模式；钢材总库存 加快累库进度，其中螺纹累库进度快于热卷，总体社库压力大于厂库；近期天气转 冷，下游工地陆陆续续停工，建材需求快速下滑；而钢材出口受出口许可证下滑，海 外制造业陆续结束补库，热卷需求同样下行。整体钢材基本面边际转弱。预计节前钢 材维持震荡偏弱走势。目前钢材库存偏高，节后资本 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Daily Report on February 10, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Zhou Tao [2] - Contact: zhoutao_qh1@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - SF Main Contract: Closing price is 5580, down 14 (0.25%) from the previous day, down 40 for the week; trading volume is 99225, down 64428 from the previous day; open interest is 167193, down 382 from the previous day [3] - SM Main Contract: Closing price is 5818, up 6 (0.1%) from the previous day, down 18 for the week; trading volume is 132582, down 41282 from the previous day; open interest is 374337, up 4286 from the previous day [3] Spot Market - Ferrosilicon: Spot prices in most regions are stable or slightly weaker, with the price in Qinghai down 50 yuan/ton [3][5] - Silicomanganese: Spot prices in some regions are down 20 - 30 yuan/ton, while manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port are stable or slightly stronger [3][6] Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon: Basis and spread show different changes in different regions [3] - Silicomanganese: Basis and spread also show different changes in different regions [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Prices of some varieties are up 0.2 - 0.5 yuan/ton degree [3][6] - Semi - coke: Prices in different regions are stable [3] Group 3: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon: Supply has a slight rebound but may decline again due to power outages in Ningxia; demand has some support from stable hot metal production; costs are generally stable with some areas seeing an increase in electricity prices; overall, supply - demand is stable [5] - Silicomanganese: Supply is generally stable with a decline in production and an increase in new equipment; demand is affected by the seasonal reduction of electric furnaces; costs are supported by the decline in port manganese ore inventory and the increase in overseas mine quotes [6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: As the long holiday approaches, it is recommended to partially take profits on long positions at high prices [5][6][7] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7] Group 4: Important Information - On the 10th, the quotes of semi - carbonate, Gabon block, and South32 Australian block in Tianjin Port are 37, 43, and 42 yuan/ton degree respectively [8] - A silicon - manganese plant in Inner Mongolia ignited its second 66000KVA new production capacity, expected to produce iron by the end of February [8] Group 5: Related Diagrams - Include the trend of iron alloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [14][16][19][21][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, there were rumors that the second - phase roasting furnaces of a large alumina plant in North China were shut down for maintenance, leading to inventory backlog and suspension of front - end feeding, to be verified next week [4]. - The supply and demand of caustic soda are both weak. The supply - side device load decreased slightly, with the chlor - alkali operating load rate dropping 0.81 percentage points to 90.63%, and the caustic soda output in terms of 100% purity being 881,400 tons, a 0.89% decrease from the previous week. Although some device overhauls led to a slight reduction in supply, the overall supply was still sufficient [4]. - The demand side showed a differentiated operation, with rigid demand coming to an end. The operating capacity of the main downstream alumina dropped to 75.42% (a 2.34 - percentage - point decrease), weakening demand support; although the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased to 83.78%, due to the approaching Spring Festival, downstream stocking was basically over, and the overall willingness to receive goods became weaker [4]. - Inventory was depleted, and losses widened. The pressure on the upstream was relieved. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda factories in Shandong dropped to 109,800 tons, a significant 8.88% decrease from the previous week. Traders maintained low inventories due to risk - aversion sentiment, and the social inventory changed little. Profits were severely in the red, and the willingness to raise prices was strong. The average loss of chlor - alkali enterprises (including self - owned power plants) in Shandong expanded to 91.17 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by over 60% [4]. - It is expected that the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda will remain stable next week, with little room for significant fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work progress of downstream enterprises after the festival and changes in alumina procurement prices [4]. - For trading strategies, the caustic soda is expected to be weak in the single - side trading; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand of caustic soda are both weak. Supply decreased slightly due to some device overhauls, but overall it was still sufficient. Demand was differentiated, with alumina demand weakening and viscose staple fiber demand tapering off. Inventory decreased, and losses widened. It is expected that prices will remain stable next week [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side: Caustic soda is weak; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5] Core Logic Analysis - **Alumina in Shandong**: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants in Shandong was at a high level, and the price continued to decline. From January 4th to January 24th, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong was successively reduced by 15 yuan/ton each time, and the current delivery volume is 13,812 tons [7][10]. - **Alumina Operation**: This week, domestic overhauls and production cuts were frequent, and the operating capacity fluctuated. As of Friday, the national alumina built - in capacity was 114.62 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.25 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous week. Next week, two alumina enterprises in Guangxi will resume production, and two in Shanxi will enter the overhaul state. It is expected that the national operating level will fluctuate around 94 million tons. The spot trading atmosphere is expected to be lighter, and the spot price will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [17]. - **Caustic Soda Operation**: This week, the average utilization rate of the production capacity of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above in China was 87.8%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week. Regionally, the chlor - alkali loads in Central and South China increased, while those in North, East, and Southwest China slightly decreased, and those in Northwest and Northeast China were basically stable. The weekly production capacity utilization rate in Shandong was 90.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous week [19]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: As of February 5, 2026, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 471,400 tons (wet tons), a 9.41% decrease from the previous week and a 2.97% increase from the same period last year. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 27.47%, a 2.56% decrease from the previous week. The storage capacity ratios in North, East, and South China decreased, while those in Northwest, Central, Northeast, and Southwest China increased [11]. - **Price**: The prices of 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and their regional and variety spreads are presented in the form of charts, reflecting the price trends from 2020 - 2026 [30][33][35]. - **Profit**: The profit charts of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu from 2022 - 2026 are provided, showing the profit trends and the prices of liquid chlorine [43]. - **Production**: The production capacity utilization rate, production volume, and provincial - level production volume of caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [52][55]. - **Consumption**: The demand, weekly consumption (including exports) of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [57][58]. - **Alumina**: The production, operating capacity, operating rate, and planned new production capacity of alumina from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts and tables. In the first quarter of 2026, there will be more new alumina production capacity, especially in Guangxi, which will drive the demand for 50% and flake caustic soda in Shandong and other places [61][66]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber and Printing and Dyeing**: The factory - level inventory and weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber from 2019 - 2026, and the operating rates of printing and dyeing in East China, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [69][70][72]. - **Export**: The export volume, FOB price in North China, and export profit of caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [74][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market sentiment is affected by various factors such as policy announcements, geopolitical situations, and seasonal trends. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and adjust strategies accordingly. [18][20][110] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The index shows a bullish arrangement, and the market sentiment is optimistic. However, the trading volume has decreased, and the market may fluctuate in the future, but the upward trend remains unchanged. The recommended trading strategies include going long on a single - side, conducting IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short arbitrage, and using bullish spreads for options. [19][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to strengthen, but the profit - taking behavior increases. The short - term yield may provide a short - selling opportunity, and the long - term yield may be cautious. The recommended strategies are to take profits on the long position of TL at high prices and pay attention to the potential strengthening of the T - contract inter - period spread. [22][23] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply pressure is large, and the international supply is relatively loose. The domestic market is also well - supplied, and it is expected to oscillate. The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short term. [25][26] - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is rising, and the domestic price is expected to remain high. The international sugar price may oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar contract is also expected to oscillate at the bottom. The recommended strategies include waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options. [28][33] - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market maintains a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to go short lightly at high prices or wait for a callback to go long. The y59 spread can be considered for reverse arbitrage at high prices. [36][37] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price in the production area is stable, and the futures price oscillates at a high level. The recommended strategies include a bullish view on the outer - market 03 corn after stabilization, short - selling the 03 corn lightly at high prices, and expanding the spread between 05 corn and starch at low prices. [40][41] - **Pigs**: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle options. [42][43] - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates in a narrow range. It is recommended to short - sell the 03 peanuts lightly at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell pk603 - C - 8200 options. [45][47] - **Eggs**: As the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, the egg price has declined. It is recommended to short the June contract on a single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [48][49] - **Apples**: The pre - holiday sales are good, and the price is firm. It is recommended to go long on the May contract at low prices, short the October contract at high prices, and conduct long - May and short - October arbitrage. [52][54] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals change little, and the cotton price is supported. It is expected that the US cotton will oscillate weakly in the short term, and the Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate within a range. It is recommended to hold a light position during the Spring Festival. [56] Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand continues to decline, and the steel price oscillates. It is recommended to follow the market sentiment and oscillate weakly on a single - side, short the coil - coal ratio at high prices, and hold the short - coil - long - rebar spread. [59][60] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mines are on holiday, and the spot trading is cold. The market is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to trade in bands or wait and see. [61][63] - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals continue to weaken, and the ore price runs weakly. It is recommended to run weakly on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [64][66] - **Ferroalloys**: As the long holiday approaches, it is recommended to take partial profits on the long positions at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options. [67][68] Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market sentiment stabilizes, and gold and silver recover. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see and hold an empty position during the holiday, while aggressive investors can hold long positions on Shanghai gold and silver with appropriate positions. [71][72] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The regional disputes are complex, and the precious metals oscillate widely. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish on platinum and palladium, buy at low prices, and conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage. [75][76] - **Copper**: As the Spring Festival approaches, it is recommended to operate cautiously. The copper price rebounds after the panic subsides. [77][78] - **Alumina**: The expected marginal change in production capacity causes the price to fluctuate more. It is recommended to oscillate strongly in the short term and participate cautiously. [80][82] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The risk preference is repaired, and the medium - term expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to oscillate and rebound on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [83] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It mainly follows the outer - market aluminum price. It is recommended to oscillate strongly on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [87] - **Zinc**: It is recommended to wait and see. The zinc market is affected by the holiday, and both supply and demand decrease. [88][89] - **Lead**: It oscillates within a range. It is recommended to wait and see due to the weak supply and demand during the holiday. [92][93] - **Nickel**: Although the pre - holiday market cools down, the bottom is rising. It is recommended to watch more and move less before the holiday and go long lightly after the price stabilizes. [94][96] - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to watch more and move less before the holiday and go long at low prices after stabilization. [98][99] - **Industrial Silicon**: The technical side is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize. [100] - **Polysilicon**: The industry self - discipline and price - supporting expectations rise again. It is recommended to watch more and do less and wait for a good safety margin. [101][103] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Under the strong regulatory environment, funds continue to flow out before the holiday. It is recommended to reduce the exposure before the holiday. [104] - **Tin**: The tin price may oscillate strongly. It is recommended to control the position before the holiday. [107][108] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: Pay attention to the implementation of price increases and the geopolitical situation in Iran. The market oscillates, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and conduct 6 - 10 positive arbitrage at low prices. [110][111] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The risk premium rebounds, and the international oil price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to oscillate widely on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [113][114] - **Asphalt**: The spot prices in various regions are basically stable. It is recommended to oscillate at a high level and go long on the BU2606 contract at low prices. [115][118] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur spot trading slows down, and the geopolitical drive continues. It is recommended to oscillate strongly and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations, take profits on the FU59 positive arbitrage at high prices, and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse arbitrage. [120][122] - **LPG**: The domestic fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to oscillate on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [124][125] - **Natural Gas**: The risk sentiment on both the supply and demand sides eases to a certain extent. It is recommended to hold short positions on the TTF and JKM third - quarter contracts and the HH second - quarter contract. [128][130] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester production reduction is gradually realized, and the weaving sales gradually stop. It is recommended to oscillate and sort out on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [133][134] - **BZ & EB**: The supply returns, and the basis declines. The fundamentals weaken. [135][137] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. It is recommended to oscillate weakly on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [139][140] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber factories reduce production as planned. It is recommended to oscillate and sort out on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [142][143] - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production decreases, and the supply is reduced. It is recommended to oscillate and sort out on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [144][146] - **Propylene**: The supply and demand support is acceptable. It is recommended to oscillate and sort out on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [148][149] - **Plastic PP**: The growth rate of PP apparent consumption slows down. It is recommended to hold long positions on the L 2605 contract and set a stop - loss at 6710 points, and wait and see for the PP 2605 contract and pay attention to the support at 6600 points. [150][151] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price strengthens. It is recommended to oscillate on a single - side. [153][154] - **PVC**: It mainly oscillates. It is recommended to go long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [155][157] - **Soda Ash**: The price weakens. It is recommended to short at high prices before the holiday, conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage, and sell call options. [158][160] - **Glass**: The price oscillates. It is recommended to short at high prices before the holiday, conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage, and sell call options. [161][162] - **Methanol**: It oscillates widely. It is recommended to go long at low prices, pay attention to the 59 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on a callback. [163][164] - **Urea**: It runs strongly. It is recommended to operate cautiously on the futures. [166][167] - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates weakly. It is recommended to operate within a range and for aggressive investors to lay out a small number of long positions based on the previous low. [169][172] - **Offset Printing Paper**: As the Spring Festival approaches, it is in the off - season, and the market is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices and sell OP2604 - C - 4200 options. [173][174] - **Logs**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the market is dull. It is recommended to wait and see and take profits on the 3 - 5 reverse arbitrage. [176][178] - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The semi - steel tire inventory is significantly reduced. It is recommended to try to go long on the RU 05 contract lightly and set a stop - loss at 16020 points, and wait and see for the NR 04 contract. [179][181] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The semi - steel tire inventory is significantly reduced. It is recommended to try to go long on the BR 04 contract lightly and set a stop - loss at 12585 points. [182][184]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Spring Festival stocking is almost over. Due to the good profit situation, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall reduction has weakened recently due to the good egg price performance. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3790, up 20 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3392, down 32; JD09 closed at 3875, down 4. The 01 - 05 spread was 398, up 52; the 05 - 09 spread was - 483, down 28; the 09 - 01 spread was 85, down 24. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.3 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of eggs and culled chickens in most regions remained stable, with only a few regions showing price fluctuations [2][4]. - **Profit Calculation**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the profit per chicken was 12.72 yuan, up 0.34 yuan. The average price of corn was 2369, up 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3174, unchanged; the compound feed for laying hens was 2.61, unchanged [2]. 2. Fundamental Information - **Egg Price and Sales**: The national mainstream egg price remained stable, and the sales volume in the representative selling areas as of February 5 was 7210 tons, down 2.3% from the previous week, but still at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [4][5]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The national inventory of laying hens in January was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected. The monthly output of chicks in January was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9% and little change year - on - year [4]. - **Culled Chicken Situation**: The number of culled chickens in the main producing areas in the week of February 6 was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week, and the average culling age was 495 days, a 2 - day increase from the previous week [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of February 5, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.52 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 6, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 12.65 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 0.37 yuan/jin from the previous week. The production and circulation inventories also increased slightly [5]. 3. Trading Logic - Near the Spring Festival, the Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end. Due to the good profit, the culling enthusiasm has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has improved, the overall reduction has weakened due to the good egg price. So, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton fundamentals remain strong with upward potential in the long - term. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The short - term trend of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be range - bound [5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70; CY05 decreased by 45 and CY09 decreased by 25. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 decreased by 13,325, and the open interest decreased by 270 [2] - **Spot Price**: CCIndex3128B decreased by 45 to 15,967 yuan/ton; Cot A was 72.80 cents/pound; FC Index:M: to - port price decreased by 0.08 to 71.46; some other spot prices remained unchanged [2] - **Price Difference**: Cotton and棉纱 inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads showed different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530 with no change, and the CY05 - CF05 spread increased by 25 to 5,750 [2] 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: In 2026, the national cotton planting intention area is 46.479 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 827,000 mu (1.7%); as of the end of January, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.001 million tons, an increase of 17,200 tons from the end of last month; as of February 5, the inventory of ICE deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts was 74,997 bales, compared with 47,653 bales the previous day [4] - **Trading Logic**: There are news about the reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang. It is expected to decrease by 2.66 million mu to 36.21 million mu in 2026, a 7% decrease. Some large planters have received relevant notices. Several large textile projects are expected to be launched in Xinjiang, which is beneficial to cotton consumption [5] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to be range - bound. It is advisable to build long positions on dips. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][8] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light. Xinjiang maintains a certain level of sales, while inland yarn mills are in the process of finishing work, mainly for stocking and fulfilling previous orders. Yarn mills are starting to take holidays one after another, and the quotes remain stable. The shipment of the all - cotton grey fabric market is weak, and most weaving factories are on holiday. It is expected that there will be no significant actions in the market before the Spring Festival, and weaving factories will adjust grey fabric prices according to the market situation after the festival, with a cautious attitude towards the future market [7][10] 3.3 Options - **Option Data**: The closing prices of some cotton options decreased, such as CF605C14600.CZC decreased by 16.9%, and the implied volatilities of different options were different. For example, the implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3% [12] - **Volatility and Strategy**: The 60 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared with the previous day. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for options [12][13][14] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and foreign cotton price difference, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][20][25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that due to the low cold - storage inventory and poor quality of apples this year, the pre - Spring Festival stocking enthusiasm has increased recently, and the inventory removal speed has accelerated. The apple warehouse receipt cost is relatively high, around 9700 - 10000 yuan/ton. Considering the low cold - storage inventory, increased downstream stocking enthusiasm, and high warehouse receipt cost, the overall trend of the apple May contract is expected to be strong [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 107.22, down 0.30 from the previous trading day. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, etc., remained unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.99, up 0.06 from the previous trading day [2]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 is 8163, up 45 from the previous close; AP05 is 9517, down 18; AP10 is 8237, up 20. The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 increased by 63, AP05 - AP10 decreased by 38, and AP10 - AP01 decreased by 25 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 163, down 45 from the previous trading day; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05 is - 1517, up 18; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 is - 237.0, down 20 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Apple Market News** - As of February 4, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China is 619.81 million tons, a decrease of 34.25 million tons from the previous week, with an accelerating inventory removal speed and higher than the same period last year [7]. - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 15.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 11.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72% [7]. - In the production areas, the inventory removal continued to accelerate, mainly for packaging and shipping. The transactions of fruit farmers' goods were mainly concentrated on the two - pole sources, and the overall trading volume was limited. In the sales areas, the arrival volume of trucks was relatively dense, but the sales did not improve significantly, and there was a backlog of goods in the transfer warehouses and on the ground vehicles [7]. - In the Shandong production area, the packaging and shipping were okay, and the transactions of fruit farmers' goods were concentrated on third - grade and small fruits. In the Yichuan and Weihai sub - production areas, the trading atmosphere improved slightly. In the Yan'an production area, the transactions of fruit farmers' goods improved slightly. In the Weinan and Xianyang production areas, the transactions improved, and some large fruit enterprises adjusted the goods of merchants to supplement the sources [7]. - **Trading Logic**: Due to low cold - storage inventory, poor quality, increased pre - Spring Festival stocking enthusiasm, and high warehouse receipt cost, the overall trend of the apple May contract is expected to be strong [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - For the single - side strategy, go long on the May contract on dips and short the October contract on rallies [8]. - For the arbitrage strategy, go long on the May contract and short the October contract [8]. - For the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report provides 10 figures, including the prices of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract main basis, spreads between different AP contracts, the total apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][11][12] [13][14][16][18][19][20][21][23]