Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain abundant with a high in - production存栏量. The spot price has started to decline in recent days, and the 06 contract is trading based on the near - month delivery logic. It is recommended to go short on rallies [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Fundamental Information - **Price**: The average price in the main production areas is 3.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day. The national mainstream prices mostly remained stable, with some regional variations [6]. - **In - production Laying Hens**: In April, the national in - production laying hen存栏量 was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and 7.2% year - on - year. The estimated存栏量 for May - August 2025 is 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In April, the monthly chick hatchling output of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, a 1.4% increase from the previous month and 2.5% year - on - year [7]. - **Hen Culling**: In the week of May 9, the national main production area hen culling volume was 17.25 million, a 4% increase from the previous week. The average culling age in the week of May 8 was 536 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales**: As of the week of May 1, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 8,816 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 1, the average production - link weekly inventory was 1.19 days, an increase of 0.03 days from the previous week, and the average circulation - link weekly inventory was 1.33 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of May 1, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.11 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On May 2, the expected profit per laying hen was 20.08 yuan/feather, an increase of 0.2 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. - **Culled Hen Price**: The national culled hen price increased, with the main production area average price at 5.14 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [9]. 3.2. Trading Logic With sufficient overall egg supply and high in - production存栏量, and the recent decline in spot prices, the 06 contract is trading based on the near - month delivery logic. It is advisable to go short on rallies [10]. 3.3. Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Hold the previous short positions and consider partial profit - taking [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [11]. - **Options**: Stay on the sidelines [11].

研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 05 月 15 日 F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上一工作日价 指标 | 今日价格 | | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日份 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 宮千卒業が掲指数 | 108.14 | 107.62 | 0.52 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.80 | 4.75 | 0.05 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.84 | 7.95 | -0.11 | | 期货价格 | | | | | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 5 月 15 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 各品种地区现货价 品种 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7796 | (118) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8176 | | | | 8156 | 8096 | 360 | 10 | 380 | 0 | 300 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8048 | (136) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8598 | | | | 8548 | 8728 | 550 | 0 | 500 | 0 | 680 | 0 | | 菜油 | 9296 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: May 15, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,490, down 45; volume was 23,577, down 6,329; open interest was 103,064, up 2,346 [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13,165, down 45; volume was 1,878, down 1,453; open interest was 27,255, down 1,347 [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13,415, down 30; volume was 210,352, down 19,764; open interest was 572,790, up 266 [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,710, up 210; volume was 1, up 1; open interest was 10, up 1 [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18,550, down 100; volume was 2, up 2; open interest was 156, up 2 [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19,655, down 40; volume was 302, up 56; open interest was 1,245, down 48 [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14,484 yuan/ton, up 100; CY IndexC32S was 20,520, down 550 [3] - Cot A was 78.00 cents/pound, down 0.25; FCY IndexC33S was 21,899, up 75 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 75.47, down 0.40; Indian S - 6 was 54,400, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,100, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,800, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17,250, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month was 325, unchanged; 5 - 9 month was - 250, down 15; 9 - 1 month was - 75, up 15 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month was 1,160, up 310; 5 - 9 month was - 1,105, down 60; 9 - 1 month was - 55, down 250 [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6,220, up 255; CY05 - CF05 was 5,385, down 55; CY09 - CF09 was 6,240, down 10 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff cotton spread was 628, up 143; sliding - scale tariff cotton spread was - 34, up 132; cotton yarn spread was - 1,379, down 625 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of May 11, 2025, India's weekly cotton listing volume was 31,000 tons, down 27% year - on - year; cumulative listing volume in 2024/25 was 453.2 million tons, down 7% year - on - year [6] - On May 15, 2025, Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1301 yuan/ton·km, down 0.08% month - on - month [6] - As of May 14, 9:00 PM, 2024, 1,096 cotton processing enterprises in China had processed 30,097,936 bales of cotton, weighing 6.7964 million tons [6] Trading Logic - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a consensus. The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods. The 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days, and the remaining 10% will be retained [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be stronger due to macro - factors [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: Wait and see [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Zhengzhou cotton is strong. Pure cotton yarn prices are stable to strong, but due to weak downstream demand, price increases are difficult, and trading volume has declined [8] - The all - cotton grey fabric market remains sluggish. Weaving mills' inventories are slightly increasing, with an average of 33 days. Some dyeing mills have insufficient orders, and orders are expected to decline further [8] Group 4: Options Option Data - On May 15, 2025, for CF509C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,415, closed at 312, up 16.9%, IV was 11.2% [10] - For CF509P12600.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,415, closed at 83, down 12.6%, IV was 13.3% [10] - For CF509P12200.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,415, closed at 51, down 23.9%, IV was 15.1% [10] Volatility and Strategy - Cotton's 120 - day HV was 10.6252, slightly increasing. CF509 - C - 13400's implied volatility was 11.2%, CF509 - P - 12600's was 13.3%, and CF509 - P - 12200's was 15.1% [12] - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract's PCR of open interest was 0.8770, and PCR of trading volume was 0.5611. Trading volumes of both calls and puts decreased [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure of meal products is limited, and they are running strongly. The international soybean supply pressure is improving, but the price pressure in Brazil still exists. The domestic meal products are expected to have limited further weakening space, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may widen [2][5][9]. - In the short - term, the domestic futures market of meal products is in a volatile state. The short - term support for the US soybean market is obvious, and the supply and demand of the international soybean market are in a state of dynamic adjustment [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Today, the US soybean futures prices dropped significantly, mainly affected by the news of possible adjustments to the US biodiesel policy. The domestic futures market was in a volatile state, with the rapeseed meal market stronger than the soybean meal market. The spread between soybean meal contracts was narrowly volatile, while the spread between rapeseed meal contracts was relatively strong [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The near - term support for the US soybean market is obvious. The export of US old - crop soybeans is expected to be stable, and the adjustment pressure on the balance sheet is small. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers has accelerated but is still at a low level in the same period of history. Brazilian soybean exports may increase due to weak domestic crushing profits. The domestic crushing in Argentina may slow down, and soybean exports may increase [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market has improved. The oil refinery operating rate has decreased, but the supply is sufficient. The inventory of soybean meal is relatively low, and the spot price is not likely to weaken rapidly. The demand for rapeseed meal is strong in the near - term, but the supply pressure still exists [7]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The reduction of tariffs between China and the US has a limited impact on the meal products market. The domestic soybean supply is less affected by policies due to the expansion of new supply sources, but the long - term price of soybean meal is still supported by policies [8]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The international market pressure has weakened, and the pressure transmitted to the domestic market is limited. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the demand is good, so the domestic soybean meal is not likely to weaken further. The long - term supply of rapeseed meal is tightening, but the demand is weak, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may widen [9]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Buy on dips. - **Arbitrage**: Long M11 and short M01. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [10][11].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Peanut Daily Report [2] - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [2][3] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [2] - Researcher's Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [2] - Researcher's Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively stable in the short - term due to stable oil mill purchase prices, high peanut production in 2024, and weak downstream demand [5][10]. - The peanut oil market is relatively strong, while peanut meal has been stable recently, and oil mills are theoretically profitable [10]. - PK510 (10 peanut) is trading new crops, with many uncertainties such as weather [10]. Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Volume Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PK504 | 8124 | -12 | -0.15% | 7 | -50.00% | 41 | -6.82% | | PK510 | 8226 | -10 | -0.12% | 32,813 | -23.92% | 93,491 | 0.81% | | PK601 | 8134 | 6 | 0.07% | 363 | 46.96% | 2,777 | 0.11% | [3] Spot Market - Peanut Spot: Henan Nanyang 8200 yuan/ton, Shandong Jining 8000 yuan/ton, Shandong Linyi 8000 yuan/ton, Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 general goods 4.15 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu 4.1 yuan/jin, Henan Baisha general goods 4.05 - 4.25 yuan/jin, Shandong Junan 4.0 yuan/jin, imported Sudan refined rice 7950 yuan/ton [3][5] - By - products: Rizhao peanut meal 3300 yuan/ton, Rizhao soybean meal 2920 yuan/ton, peanut oil 15000 yuan/ton, Rizhao first - grade soybean oil 8060 yuan/ton [3] Price Difference - Peanut Inter - period Spread: PK01 - PK04 spread is 10 with a change of 18; PK04 - PK10 spread is - 102 with a change of - 2; PK10 - PK01 spread is 92 with a change of - 16 [3] Group 5: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China are stable, and it is expected that peanut spot prices will be relatively stable in the short - term [5] - Peanut oil mill purchase prices are stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price at 8110 yuan/ton. Peanut oil prices are stable, and soybean oil prices have risen [5] - Rizhao soybean meal spot prices are stable, and the unit protein price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal is high, with peanut meal being weak in the short - term [8] Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long on 10 peanut at low prices with a volatile trading idea [11] - Inter - period Spread: Do positive spreads on peanut 10 - 1 at low prices [12] - Options: Sell pk510 - p - 7800 [13] Group 7: Related Attachments - Figure 1: Shandong peanut spot price (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 2: Peanut oil mill crushing profit (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 3: Peanut oil price (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 4: Peanut spot and continuous contract basis (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 5: Peanut 10 - 1 contract spread (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 6: Peanut 3 - 10 contract spread (unit: yuan/ton) [15][19][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - side pressure of live pigs is gradually emerging, with prices showing an obvious downward trend. The overall pig price is expected to fluctuate. The futures market also declined significantly, but the continuous decline space is limited [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Information - **Spot Prices**: Today, live pig prices across the country showed an obvious downward trend. For example, the price in Henan dropped from 15.06 to 14.96, and in Guangdong from 15.20 to 15.04. The average price remained unchanged at 14.37 [4]. - **Futures Prices**: All futures contracts showed a downward trend. For instance, LH01 dropped from 13825 to 13720, and LH09 dropped from 14020 to 13780 [4]. - **Sow/Piglet Prices**: Piglet prices decreased from 529 to 517, while sow prices remained unchanged at 1631 [4]. 3.2 Profit Information - **Spot Breeding Profits**: Self - breeding and self - raising profits decreased from 85.05 to 84.33, while profits from purchasing piglets increased from 48.53 to 58.46 [4]. 3.3 Slaughter - end Information - The slaughter volume decreased from 147682 to 146858, a decrease of 824 [4]. 3.4 Price Difference Information - **Contract Price Differences**: For example, LH7 - 9 increased from - 375 to - 285, while LH9 - 1 decreased from 195 to 60 [4]. - **Size Pig Price Differences**: The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased from 0.28 to 0.27, while the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs increased from - 0.15 to - 0.13 [4]. 3.5 Market Situation and Forecast - The supply - side pressure is gradually emerging. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has declined. The scale enterprises' monthly - end出栏 rhythm has accelerated, and it is expected to continue in the short term. The overall supply pressure is limited, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate. The futures market also has limited continuous decline space [4][5]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Mainly fluctuate. - Arbitrage: LH79 reverse arbitrage. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [6].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 5 月 15 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/5/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2239 | -16 | -0.71% | 15,361 | 3.54% | 57,649 | 0.81% | | C2505 | | 2311 | 0 | 0.00% | 20 | -96.02% | 2,916 | -0.65% | | C2509 | | 2357 | -10 | -0.42% | 90,837 | -6.42% | 434,416 | 0.54% | | CS2601 | | 2663 | -12 | -0.45% | 916 | -13.50% | 4,429 | 6.08% | | CS2505 | | 2667 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Soybean/Meal**: The US soybean market is driven by macro - positives and improved crushing prospects, but South American supply pressure remains. The domestic market may face pressure due to increased soybean arrivals and potential higher crushing volumes [2][4]. - **Sugar**: Brazil is approaching the crushing peak, with short - term prices expected to fluctuate. Domestic sugar prices are stronger than raw sugar due to high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, and are also expected to move sideways [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: US biodiesel expectations are volatile, affecting the oil market. In the short term, Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase production and inventory. In China, soybean crushing will rise, and soybean oil inventory will accumulate [21]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: US corn is weakening, while the domestic corn market is strong due to limited supply, but the upside for spot prices is limited, and futures have strong support [32]. - **Hogs**: The hog market is oscillating. Supply has improved, but the futures may not fall much further [38]. - **Peanuts**: Spot peanut trading is light, but the 10 - contract peanuts may be short - term strong due to expected increased planting area and potential weather speculation [41]. - **Eggs**: Egg supply is sufficient, and prices are oscillating. It is recommended to close short positions and wait [49]. - **Apples**: Cold - storage apple inventory is low, and new - season weather has affected some areas. Apple prices are expected to be slightly stronger [54][56]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to strengthen due to positive macro - news from Sino - US trade talks [62]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Data**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.21% to 1069.5 cents/bu, and CBOT meal index fell 0.34% to $296.6/short ton [2] - **Key Information**: USDA export sales and NOPA monthly crushing reports are expected. EU rapeseed production is recovering, and domestic soybean and meal inventories have changed [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: oscillate; Arbitrage: wait; Options: sell wide - straddle strategy [5] Sugar - **Market Data**: ICE US sugar fell 0.14 (0.77%) to 18.08 cents/lb [6] - **Key Information**: Yunnan sugar mills' crushing progress, Brazilian sugar production data, and StoneX's prediction [7][8][11] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: oscillate and trade in the range; Arbitrage: wait; Options: sell wide - straddle or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [13][14][15] Oils and Fats - **Market Data**: CBOT soybean oil changed 1.58% to 52.2 cents/lb, and BMD palm oil changed 0.82% to 3957 ringgit/ton [18] - **Key Information**: Indonesia's palm oil export tax adjustment, India's vegetable oil imports, and US biodiesel policy news [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: consider long - position in palm oil for a rebound or short after a rebound; Arbitrage: partially close and hold YP 09; Options: wait [24][25][26] Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Data**: CBOT corn rose 0.5% to 445.5 cents/bu [28] - **Key Information**: US corn inventory, domestic processing data, and port prices [29][31] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: go long on 07 corn; Arbitrage: trade the spread between corn and starch; Options: sell covered calls for those with spot [33][34] Hogs - **Market Data**: Hog prices are stable in different regions, and piglet and sow prices have changed [36] - **Key Information**: Agricultural product price index and pork wholesale price [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: bearish; Arbitrage: LH79 reverse spread; Options: sell wide - straddle strategy [38] Peanuts - **Market Data**: Peanut prices in different regions, oil factory purchase prices, and product prices [39] - **Key Information**: Peanut and peanut oil inventory changes [40] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: go long on 10 peanuts; Arbitrage: wait; Options: wait [42][43][44] Eggs - **Market Data**: Egg prices in main production and sales areas are stable or slightly changed [46] - **Key Information**: Laying - hen inventory, chicken culling, egg sales, and inventory data [47] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: close short positions and wait; Arbitrage: long 08 and short 09; Options: wait [50] Apples - **Market Data**: Apple cold - storage inventory, export and import data, and spot prices [51][52] - **Key Information**: Apple profit situation [53] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: go long on AP10; Arbitrage: wait; Options: wait [57][58] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Data**: ICE US cotton fell 0.86 (1.29%) to 65.55 cents/lb [59] - **Key Information**: US cotton planting progress, soil humidity, and port inventory [60] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: expect a slightly stronger trend; Arbitrage: wait; Options: wait [62][63]

金融衍生品研究所 基本面分析报告 金融衍生品日报 2025 年 05 月 13 日 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号： F0211891 投资咨询从业证号： Z000567 ：021-65789277 ：sunfeng@chinastock.com.cn 研究员：彭烜 期货从业证号： F3035416 投资咨询从业证号： Z0015142 ：pengxuan_qh@chinastock.com.cn 研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号： F3053225 投资咨询从业证号： Z0015885 ：shenchen_qh@chinastock.com.cn 金融衍生品日报 一、财经要闻 1. 习近平在中拉论坛第四届部长级会议开幕式的主旨讲话中提出，当前，世界百年变 局加速演进，多重风险交织叠加，各国唯有团结协作，才能维护世界和平稳定，促进全球发 展繁荣。关税战、贸易战没有赢家，霸凌霸道只会孤立自身。 2. 数据显示，今日南向资金净流入 22.61 亿元。 3. 央行公告称，5 月 13 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1800 亿元 7 天期逆回购操 作，操作利率 1.40%。数据显示，当日 4050 亿元逆回购到期 ...