期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 18 日 0 / 51 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：反弹再受美股情绪影响 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：博弈反弹行情 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 | 盘面继续承压 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价小幅下跌 | 郑糖大跌后调整 6 | | 油脂板块：棕榈油技术性反弹，油脂整体仍处于底部震荡 8 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货回落，盘面底部震荡 9 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 现货小幅反弹 10 | | 花生：花生现货回落，花生盘面窄幅震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价稳定为主 11 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 12 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | 棉价震荡偏强 13 | | 钢材：原料止跌企稳，钢价触底反弹 15 | | --- | | 双焦：波动加大，关注交易逻辑的变化 15 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 16 | | 铁合金：成本有支撑，需求存压制 17 | | 金银：美联储释放鸽派信号 再现金稳银强走势 18 | | --- ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | 2025/12/17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | 各品种地区现货价 | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7822 | (50) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8332 | | | | 8382 | 8242 | | 560 | 10 | 510 | 0 | 420 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8342 | (68) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8312 | | | | 8432 | 8452 | | -30 | -1 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,154 | 1 | 0.02% | 12,165 | -1878 | 48,318 | 2317 | | SR01 | | 5,215 | 3 | 0.06% | 28,311 | -30920 | 73,219 | -15335 | | SR05 | | 5,139 | 6 | 0.12% | 253,403 | -59730 | 487,935 | 6509 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | | 5410 | 5245 | 5 ...

研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 788.5 | 783.5 | 5.0 | I01-I05 | 20.5 | 22.5 | -2.0 | | DCE05 | 768.0 | 761.0 | 7.0 | I05-I09 | 22.5 | 21.5 | 1.0 | | DCE09 | 745.5 | 739.5 | 6.0 | I09-I01 | -43.0 | -44.0 | 1.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 779 | 773 | 6 | 846 | 54 | 77 | 98 | | 纽曼粉 | 781 | 776 | 5 | 854 | 63 | 85 | 107 | | 麦克粉 | 780 | 774 | 6 | 861 | 70 | 92 | 114 | | 金布巴粉(60.5%) | 736 | 731 ...

1. Report Information - Report title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Date: December 17, 2025 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 1000 index closed at 7,288.74, up 1.49%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 290,120 lots, an increase of 35,895 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 392,878 lots, a decrease of 9,704 lots [4][5]. - The main contract IM2512 rose 1.65% to close at 7,295 points. The main contract was at a premium of 6.26 points, down 1.12 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of 10.44% [4][5]. 2.2 Key Seats - In IM2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 35,090 lots. The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 20,801 lots, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 31,567 lots [19]. 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 300 index closed at 4,579.88, up 1.83%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 189,590 lots, an increase of 39,510 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 289,623 lots, a decrease of 628 lots [24][25]. - The main contract IF2512 rose 1.78% to close at 4,578.2 points. The main contract was at a discount of 1.68 points, down 3.53 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -4.45% [24][25]. 3.2 Key Seats - In IF2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 30,016 lots. The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 10,030 lots, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 12,841 lots [37]. 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The CSI 500 index closed at 7,137.83, up 1.95%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 184,831 lots, an increase of 21,520 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 271,976 lots, an increase of 2,748 lots [42][43]. - The main contract IC2512 rose 2.25% to close at 7,146.8 points. The main contract was at a premium of 8.97 points, up 0.09 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of 15.26% [42][43]. 4.2 Key Seats - In IC2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 23,049 lots. The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 18,705 lots, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 20,528 lots [55]. 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The SSE 50 index closed at 2,991.68, up 1.25%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 74,842 lots, an increase of 4,636 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 94,153 lots, a decrease of 1,896 lots [62]. - The main contract IH2512 rose 1.4% to close at 2,987.2 points. The main contract was at a discount of 4.48 points, down 1.09 points from the previous day, with an annualized basis rate of -18.24% [62][63]. 5.2 Key Seats - In IH2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 7,890 lots. The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,299 lots, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 6,628 lots [77].

研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡偏强，最终报收 2155（+39/+1.84%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1930 元/吨，北线报价 1940 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2020 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1910 元/吨，山西地区报价 2010 元/吨，河南地区报价 2110 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2190 元/吨，鲁北报价 2220 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2130 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2100 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2120 元/吨，宁波报价 2140 元/吨，广州报价 2080 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 12 月 17 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 121.88 万吨，较上一期数据减 少 1.56 万吨。其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 3.10 万吨；华南增加 1.54 万吨。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 450 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，暂未 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report [1] - Report Date: December 17, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03134259 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0021009 [1] - Contact Information: zhoutao_qh1@chinastock.com.cn [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Trading Volume | Daily Change | Open Interest | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SF Main Contract | 5546 | 64 | 112 | 270107 | -12241 | 257884 | -6534 | | SM Main Contract | 5758 | 22 | 34 | 130766 | -29544 | 276107 | -2682 | [2] Spot Market | Product | Region | Spot Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 72% FeSi | Inner Mongolia | 5280 | 0 | 80 | | 72% FeSi | Ningxia | 5220 | -30 | 20 | | 72% FeSi | Qinghai | 5200 | 0 | -50 | | 72% FeSi | Jiangsu | 5600 | 100 | 100 | | 72% FeSi | Tianjin | 5600 | 50 | -50 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Inner Mongolia | 5540 | 0 | 20 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Ningxia | 5490 | 0 | 0 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Guangxi | 5600 | 0 | 50 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Jiangsu | 5680 | -20 | 0 | | Silicomanganese 6517 | Tianjin | 5700 | 0 | 0 | [2] Basis/Spread | Product | Region | Basis/Spread | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ferrosilicon | Inner Mongolia - Main Contract | -266 | -64 | -32 | | Ferrosilicon | Ningxia - Main Contract | -326 | -94 | -92 | | Ferrosilicon | Qinghai - Main Contract | -346 | -64 | -162 | | Ferrosilicon | Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia | 320 | 100 | 20 | | Ferrosilicon - Silicomanganese Spread | - | -212 | 42 | 78 | | Silicomanganese | Inner Mongolia - Main Contract | -218 | -22 | -14 | | Silicomanganese | Ningxia - Main Contract | -268 | -22 | -34 | | Silicomanganese | Guangxi - Main Contract | -158 | -22 | 16 | | Silicomanganese | Guangxi - Inner Mongolia | 60 | 0 | 30 | [2] Raw Materials | Raw Material | Region | Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Manganese Ore (Tianjin) - Australian Lumps | - | 41.5 | 0 | -0.2 | | Manganese Ore (Tianjin) - South African Semi - Carbonate | - | 34.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | | Manganese Ore (Tianjin) - Gabon Lumps | - | 43 | 0 | -0.5 | | Lanthanum Coke Small Material - Shaanxi | - | 800 | 0 | -20 | | Lanthanum Coke Small Material - Ningxia | - | 900 | 0 | -20 | | Lanthanum Coke Small Material - Inner Mongolia | - | 790 | 0 | -20 | [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Trading Strategy - On December 17, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The SF main contract closed at 5546, up 1.17%, with open interest decreasing by 6534 lots; the SM main contract closed at 5758, up 0.38%, with open interest decreasing by 2682 lots [5] - Ferrosilicon: On the 17th, spot prices showed mixed trends, with spot prices in some regions rising by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. On the supply side, recent poor corporate profit conditions have led some manufacturers to add maintenance or switch to other products, and this week's supply is expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, the macro data in November continued to weaken, and both steel production and apparent consumption decreased microscopically, still putting pressure on raw material demand. Overall, the fundamentals continue the pattern of weak supply and demand and continue to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - Silicomanganese: On the 17th, manganese ore spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, with the semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port rising by 0.1 yuan/ton degree, while silicomanganese spot prices were stable with a slight downward trend, and spot prices in some regions fell by 20 yuan/ton. On the supply side, manufacturers' profit levels are not good, and the supply side is expected to decline. On the demand side, the real estate data in November continued to deteriorate, and both the apparent consumption and production of rebar decreased microscopically, dragging down the demand for silicomanganese. On the cost side, manganese ore port inventories are at the same - period low, and the quotes of overseas mines in January have all increased slightly, with the cost side rising, providing strong short - term price support, but the upside is suppressed by demand expectations [5] Specific Strategies - Unilateral: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the cost side still provides support, with prices fluctuating at the bottom [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] Important Information - On the 17th, the price of 37% Mn semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton degree, the price of 48.3% Mn Gabon lumps was 43 yuan/ton degree, and the price of 27.67% Mn, 22.37% Fe South African high - iron ore with a particle size of 10 - 100mm was 29.5 yuan/ton degree [7] - Two 72 ferrosilicon furnaces of a large factory in Gansu started to switch production, with one switching to low - aluminum ferrosilicon and one switching to 97 silicon [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts, such as the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread of main contracts sf - sm, the monthly spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (main contract - Inner Mongolia), the spot price of silicomanganese, the spot price of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese, ferroalloy electricity prices, the cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16][17][19]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 | 第一部分 | | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/17 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7958 | 44 | 0.55% | 66,883 | 15.22% | 31,305 | -0.59% | | PK510 | | 8200 | 16 | 0.20% | 148 | 27.59% | 966 | 7.21% | | PK601 | | 8078 | 30 | 0.37% | 4,016 | -68.56% | 24,046 | -8.00% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | | 现货 | | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Today, steel prices generally maintained a moderately strong oscillating trend, with iron ore leading the increase. Spot steel transactions were generally weak, and the willingness to sell at low prices increased. This week, according to Buguwang data, the production of building materials and hot-rolled coils increased, with building materials increasing at a faster rate. Total steel inventories continued to decline, and social inventories decreased significantly, with the overall inventory reduction rate remaining the same as last week. The apparent demand for building materials decreased slightly, while that for hot-rolled coils increased slightly. Overall demand has some support. It is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline this week, but the blast furnace profit has recovered, and there may be a special increase in production at the end of the month. In December, coal supply may shrink again due to environmental protection factors, and steel mills also have inventory replenishment expectations. There is a structural shortage of PB powder, and steel costs are supported. Although the demand for building materials declines seasonally, the demand from the manufacturing industry still provides support. Affected by the implementation of export license management for steel products, short-term exports will continue at a high level. Steel prices may show a moderately strong oscillating trend due to raw material inventory replenishment, but will perform weaker than in November due to seasonal factors [5]. - Unilateral trading: Steel prices will maintain an oscillating range and may rebound after reaching a short - term bottom [6]. - Arbitrage trading: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - Option trading: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3250 yuan (-), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3120 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3270 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3180 yuan (-) [4]. Market Research and Judgment - **Related Prices**: See the above - mentioned spot prices [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: See the core views for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading strategies [5][6][7][8]. - **Important Information**: From January to November, the national general public budget revenue was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Among them, national tax revenue was 16.4814 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; non - tax revenue was 3.5702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. Central general public budget revenue was 8.8464 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1%; local general public budget revenue at the provincial - level was 11.2052 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. Relevant departments issued the "Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for Clean and Efficient Coal Utilization in Key Areas (2025 Edition)" [9][10]. Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profit situations from 2021 to 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][13][14][16][18][21][24][25][28][29][31][35][38][43][45][48][51][53]

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2223 | 3 | 0.13% | 225,147 | -36.28% | 375,210 | -17.71% | | C2605 | | 2239 | 1 | 0.04% | 100,790 | 16.55% | 452,365 | 3.75% | | C2509 | | 2265 | 0 | 0.00% | 5,099 | -42.68% | 36,210 | -0.79% | | CS2601 | | 2512 | 10 | 0.40% | 72,404 | -21.31% | 129,585 | -6.55% | | CS2605 | ...