研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 | | | 第一部分 | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/1/27 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7966 | 8 | 0.10% | 27,678 | -29.47% | 39,307 | 10.59% | | PK610 | 8228 | -22 | -0.27% | 167 | -8.74% | 2,743 | -1.37% | | PK601 | 8220 | -42 | -0.51% | 17 | 750.00% | 16 | 45.45% | | | | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7400 | 8000 | 8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international LPG market remains tight, and external prices are continuously high. In the short term, the LPG market trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish, but continuous attention should be paid to the Iranian situation. [7][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data - **Domestic Futures**: The price of PG2602 was 4,248 yuan, down 92 yuan from the previous day; the main position was 95,673, a decrease of 1,536; the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5,867. [2] - **Domestic Spot**: In the domestic spot market, prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with prices in South China rising and those in North China falling. The basis increased by 192 yuan to 600 yuan. [2][5][6] - **External Prices**: Most external prices remained stable, with only BRENT and MB C3 M1 showing slight declines. [2] - **Disk Profits**: Import profit and PDH profit both decreased, with import profit FEI dropping by 94.2 yuan to -268.9 yuan and PDH FEI falling by 30.6 yuan to -621.0 yuan. [2] 3.2 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market - The US Energy Department issued an emergency order to mitigate power - outage risks in North Carolina after winter storm "Furn". The large - scale winter storm in the US affected oil and gas producers and industrial plants, boosting natural gas prices by 40% at noon. OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable oil production next month. [3][4] 3.3 Spot Overview - **Shandong Region**: The estimated price of civil gas was 4,410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The market was stable with a downward trend, and it is expected to stabilize overall tomorrow with sporadic declines. The price of ether - after C4 was 4,350 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the market was running weakly and stably. [5] - **East China Region**: The mainstream transaction price of civil gas was 4,384 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The market was mostly stable with individual increases, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term. [5] - **South China Region**: The average transaction price of domestic gas was 4,840 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the average price of imported gas was 4,970 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Refineries and terminals raised prices, but it is expected that terminals will have limited room for further price increases. [6] - **North China Region**: The benchmark price of civil gas was 4,313 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The market generally declined, and low - price transactions were better. [6] 3.4 Market Judgment - The international LPG supply is tight, and external prices are high. In this period, the LPG supply increased slightly while the arrival volume decreased. On the demand side, the high cost of downstream chemical enterprises led to a significant decline in PDH operation. The Iranian risk adds a risk premium, and the market is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short term. [7][9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term fuel oil exports and production are expected to be continuously disturbed by geopolitical and macro - strategic factors, and the unilateral fluctuations of fuel oil will intensify. Geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. High - sulfur fuel oil shows a weak fundamental situation of stable supply and weak demand in the first quarter, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a significant increase in near - end supply exports [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: On January 26, 2026, the FU main contract price was 2791, up 148 from the previous day; the LU main contract price was 3206, up 90 from the previous day [3]. - **Futures Positions and Changes**: The FU main contract position was 226,000 lots, up 39,000 lots from the previous day; the LU main contract position was 122,000 lots, up 7,000 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Changes**: The FU warehouse receipts were 66,550 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the LU warehouse receipts were 6,530, down 4,950 from the previous day [3]. - **Spreads and Changes**: The FU5 - 9 spread was 99, up 38 from the previous day; the LU3 - 4 spread was 6, up 5 from the previous day; the LU - FU main contract spread was 415, down 58 from the previous day; the FU05 - outer - market 04 spread was 15.6, up 1.8 from the previous day; the LU03 - outer - market 02 spread was 16.4, up 0.6 from the previous day [3]. Second Part: Market Research and Judgment - **Market Overview**: In the Singapore paper - cargo market, the high - sulfur Feb/Mar month - spread rose 1.50 to 11.75 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Feb/Mar month - spread rose 0.25 to 2.00 US dollars/ton [5]. - **Important Information**: Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodriguez said on Monday that the country expects to invest about 1.4 billion US dollars in government - promoted oil production - sharing contract projects this year, compared with about 900 million US dollars last year [6]. - **Market Judgment**: High - sulfur fuel oil has high - price transactions in the Singapore spot window, and the high - sulfur spot discount has risen rapidly recently. The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is at a neutral and seasonal low level in the same period, reflecting the weak fundamental situation of stable supply and weak demand in the first quarter. The near - end Singapore fuel oil inventory is still high, and the logistics of exports from major supply regions is stable in the short term. Geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The near - end supply and export of low - sulfur fuel oil have increased significantly. The gasoline unit of the Dangote refinery has a delayed return from maintenance, and the low - sulfur supply remains at a high level during this period. The Kuwaiti Al - Zour refinery has fully resumed production after a long - term unplanned shutdown, and its low - sulfur exports in January reached a record high, and the exports to the pan - Singapore area also reached a new high. South Sudan has taken over the main security control of the Heglig oilfield, and the energy supply is expected to gradually recover. A new low - sulfur crude oil tender for February has been issued [7]. Third Part: Related Attached Figures - The report includes figures such as Singapore high - sulfur cracking, Singapore low - sulfur cracking, Singapore gasoline cracking, Singapore 10ppm diesel cracking, high - low sulfur spread, and LSFO - GO, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [10][14][16].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Natural Gas: Risks Amplified in Extreme Market Conditions" [1] - Researcher: Wu Xiaorong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03108405 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0021537 [1] Group 2: Report Structure - Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies [2] - Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis [2] - Chapter 3: Core Data Tracking [2] Group 3: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive analysis involves LNG, TTF, JKM, and HH, but specific content is incomplete [4] - Trading strategy mentions TTF, JKM, and HH, but details are incomplete [5] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis LNG Market - From the 1st to the 10th, the inventory decreased by 160,000 tons to 1.0818 million tons, a decrease of 61,000 tons or 5.9%; on the 16th, it was 1.162 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons or 4.1% [9] - From the 1st to the 23rd, the LNG shipping volume was 2.03 million tons, the LNG unloading volume was 1.22 million tons, and the LNG slot volume was 1.14 million tons [9] - On the 21st, the power generation was 544.3 TWh, a year - on - year decrease of 125.85 TWh or 18.8%; the proportion of gas - fired power generation was 47.6%, the proportion of coal - fired power generation was 58.4%, and the proportion of nuclear power generation was 62.46% [9] - On the 21st, the LNG power generation was 4,512.5 GWh/day, a year - on - year increase of 23.9% [9] - The daily power generation of a certain power plant was 1.65 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; the total power generation was 10.9 TWh, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% [9] - ECMWF and GFS models predict a temperature increase of 3 - 6°C in some areas and 2 - 4°C in others [9] US Market - Inventory: On the 16th, the inventory was 30,650 million cubic feet, an increase of 1,200 million cubic feet or 4.4% compared to the previous week; the five - year average inventory was 1,410 million cubic feet, an increase of 1,770 million cubic feet or 5.5% [11] - Supply: On the 22nd, the supply was 1,123 million cubic feet per day, a week - on - week increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. According to Baker Hughes, on the 16th, the number of rigs increased by 2 to 122, and the total number of rigs was 543 [11] - Demand: On the 22nd, the demand was 1,271 million cubic feet per day, a week - on - week increase of 15.9% and a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. Among them, the power generation demand was 357 million cubic feet per day, a week - on - week increase of 9.1%; the industrial demand was 294 million cubic feet per day, a week - on - week increase of 17.8%; the residential and commercial demand was 513 million cubic feet per day, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% [11] - Export: On the 22nd, the export was 194 million cubic feet per day, a week - on - week increase of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 37.2% [11] Group 5: Core Data Tracking International Gas Prices - TTF - HH spread, international natural gas prices (JKM first - line, TFU first - line, HH first - line), HH monthly spread, and TTF monthly spread are presented in graphs from 2025/1/24 to 2025/11/24 [15] Forward Curves - HH, JKM, and TTF forward curves are shown [18] China's Gas Supply and Demand - China's natural gas supply and consumption, domestic LNG supply, imported LNG supply by tank trucks, LNG ex - factory prices, and inventory levels (receiving station inventory and storage reservoir inventory) are presented in graphs [21][22][25] European Gas Data - Northwest European gas - coal conversion range, European natural gas inventory, LNG imports, and the volume of floating storage tanks over 20 days are presented in graphs [28] - European natural gas imports from different sources (Norway, Russia, North Africa, etc.) and European domestic production are presented in graphs [31] US Gas Data - US natural gas inventory, dry gas production, rig numbers, liquefied export project flows, domestic consumption, power generation demand, industrial consumption, and residential and commercial consumption are presented in graphs, and a US supply - demand balance sheet is provided [34][37][39] Temperature and Wind Speed Forecasts - Temperature forecasts for Shanghai, Guangdong, South Korea, Japan, the US, Beijing, Northwest Europe, and Central Europe, as well as wind speed forecasts for France, Germany, Italy, and the UK are presented in graphs [42][45]

中国成品油周报 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F3108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 | 4 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析 ◼ 市场概况： 137/137/137 供应端，周全国炼厂开工上行0.8个百分点至71.4%，主营开工持续上行1.5个百分点至78.8%，云南石化开工继续上行，上海石化检修完成；地炼 开工持续下行0.3个百分点至53.6%，山东地炼开工率环比继续下跌，部分炼厂减产柴油，神驰化工等两家地炼进入全厂检修持续，大部分炼厂开 工稳定无新停开工。本周主营和地炼汽柴油产量均小幅上行。柴汽比下跌0.01至1.31。需求端，市场中下游采购积极性转弱，市场情绪消极，汽 柴油船单成交稳定车单产销下滑，汽柴产销率均下行。库存，商业库存汽柴油均累库。汽油11 ...

研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 10 | GALAXY FUTURES 沥青周报 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 地缘动荡持续，原油成本宽幅震荡，国际大贸易商开始运输销售委内瑞拉原油给欧洲需求炼厂但暂无出现与中印的具体交 易，一月中旬彭博消息称原料贴水报价在-8美金/桶左右，据悉当前3月及5月原料报价仍在进一步上行。周四路透消息，美 国政府允许中国购买委内瑞拉石油但前提是必须以"公平的市场价格"购买，沥青盘面表现为跟随原油高位震荡。国内现 货市场价格维持稳定，受到低库存地图供应支撑，需求预期随着降温及临近春节继续转弱。 【策略】 单边： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It details the market trends, influencing factors, and trading strategies for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives market, the stock index futures show a style reversal, and the bond market has narrow - range fluctuations. In the agricultural product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [20][23][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market style reversed. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indexes rebounded, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes weakened. The trading volume of futures contracts increased, and the market is expected to remain stable with a medium - term upward trend [20][21]. - **Bond Futures**: The bond futures closed mostly lower. The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity led to a slight convergence of the money market. The short - term direction of the bond market depends on the risk - asset trend [23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The production remains high, and the market is under pressure. Although the demand has slightly improved and the South American weather has some impact, the overall supply - demand is relatively loose [26][27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The domestic sugar market is in the peak crushing period, with supply pressure, but the decline space is limited [33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The soybean supply is sufficient, and the rapeseed trade may be disturbed. The palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and inventory, and the short - term oil market will fluctuate widely [35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The North Port spot is strong, and the futures price rises and then falls. The US corn report shows an increase in yield, but the Argentine weather is dry, and the domestic corn has short - term stability and long - term pressure [38][40]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure increases, and the spot price continues to decline. The overall inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains [42]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates at the bottom. The import volume decreases, and the oil mill has profits [45][46]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg price rises. The egg - laying hen inventory is decreasing, but the 03 contract's upward space is limited [49][50]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales accelerate, and the inventory is low. The 5 - month contract is expected to be strong [53][54]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton sales progress is fast, and the market sentiment is optimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand is weakening, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The steel production and inventory have different trends, and the cost has support [60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are lackluster, and the market is affected by capital. The supply is not tight, and the downstream demand for winter storage is not strong [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: The terminal demand is at a low level, and the ore price oscillates. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak, and the high valuation is difficult to maintain [65][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is low and needs to be repaired. The short - term trend is slightly strong. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are relatively stable, and the cost has support [68]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market shows a "roller - coaster" trend. The short - term price is affected by news and technical adjustments. Gold is relatively stable, while silver is in a sensitive stage [70][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The precious - metal market has a "roller - coaster" trend. Platinum has a stronger upward drive than palladium [72][73]. - **Copper**: The copper price is consolidating at a high level. The macro and fundamental factors are contradictory. The long - term upward trend remains [74][76]. - **Alumina**: It mainly oscillates at a low level. The supply has short - term maintenance and production reduction, and the demand has a small increase [78][82]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It oscillates at a high level with macro - hedging expectations. The supply will increase in the future, and the price is affected by financial attributes [83][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with macro - hedging expectations. The scrap - aluminum supply is tight, and the cost supports the price [87]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the change of domestic social inventory. The supply of zinc concentrate is short, and the demand is different. The short - term price is strong [89][91]. - **Lead**: There may be support at the bottom. The supply and demand are weak, and the price oscillates within a range [93][94]. - **Nickel**: The long - term expectation leads to the rise of the nickel price. The short - term reality is weak, and the long - term expectation is optimistic [95][96]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are tight, and the cost supports the price. The supply is short, and the inventory is decreasing [98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production - reduction news affects the market, and the short - term trend is slightly strong. The demand is weak, but if the production reduction is implemented, the price may rise [100][101]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is falling, and the short - term futures are under pressure. The high inventory and weak demand may lead to a decline in the spot price [103]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The regulatory measures cool the market, and attention should be paid to when the price stabilizes. The short - term price is affected by regulation, and the long - term trend is positive [106][107]. - **Tin**: The tin price rises and then falls. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption [109]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The SCFIS index is lower than expected. The spot freight rate is in the off - season decline, and the export - tax - rebate - driven rush of shipments is less than expected. The 04 contract has a discount, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation [111][113]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market weighs long and short factors, and the geopolitical situation is still tense. The international oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [116][117]. - **Asphalt**: The cost supports the price, and the asphalt market price oscillates at a high level. The demand is weakening, and the price is stable [118][121]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamental situation is weak, and the geopolitical factor is the main bullish driver. The high - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has an increase in supply [123][125]. - **LPG**: The price fluctuation is intensified by geopolitical factors. The international LPG is tight, and the demand of downstream chemical enterprises is weak [127][129]. - **Natural Gas**: The LNG price has limited room for further increase. The US HH price is volatile near the delivery date. The European market is affected by cold weather, and the long - term market is loose [129][132]. - **PX & PTA**: The capital attention increases, and the polyester demand decreases seasonally. The PX supply is high, and the PTA supply and demand are weak [133][135]. - **BZ & EB**: The supply - demand pattern of styrene is improving. The supply is affected by device failures and overseas maintenance, and the price is strong [136][137]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Saudi Arabian maintenance may lead to a decline in imports. The near - month contract is strong, and the import is expected to decrease [140]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - fiber load is expected to decrease, and it follows the cost - side trend [142][144]. - **Bottle Chips**: The maintenance accelerates in mid - January, and it follows the cost - side trend. The production is expected to decrease, and the price is strong [145]. - **Propylene**: The cost of propane is strong, and the propylene load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market has support [147][148]. - **Plastic PP**: The maintenance of L plastic decreases marginally. The L and PP prices rise, but the downstream demand is weak [150]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic - soda price is weakening. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the inventory has pressure [153]. - **PVC**: It oscillates and consolidates. The supply is high, the demand is affected by the festival, and the price is expected to be strong [156]. - **Soda Ash**: It shows a strong trend this week. The supply is stable, the demand is stable, and the price is expected to rise [159][160]. - **Glass**: It shows a strong trend this week. The price is affected by the market sentiment, and the high - inventory pressure needs to be considered [161][163]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical situation eases, and the methanol price falls from a high level. The international supply is affected by device shutdowns, and the domestic supply is loose [164][167]. - **Urea**: It oscillates at a high level. The domestic production is at a high level, the international price is rising, and the domestic demand is weak [168][170]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price continues to oscillate widely. The supply is greater than the demand, and the demand support is insufficient [171][172]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The high inventory suppresses the paper price. The supply is still abundant, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing [176]. - **Logs**: The supply is tight due to natural disasters in New Zealand, and the spot price is stable and slightly strong. The price is affected by supply and demand in different regions [179][180]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The inventory in the bonded area decreases, and the inventory outside the area increases. The demand of the US auto industry has a slight negative impact on the rubber price [182][184]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The profit recovery of butadiene is less than that of last year. The capacity utilization rate and profit of butadiene and butadiene rubber have different trends [185][186].

目录 【粕类周报】供应压力好转 盘面阶段上涨 银河农产品 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 基本面数据变化 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 期权：看跌海鸥期权（观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据） 2 GALAXY FUTURES 【综合分析】 本周美豆盘面呈现小幅上涨表现，主要因前期利空因素体现比较充分后开始呈现小幅上涨表现，近期美豆上涨主要受到几方面因素影响，首先，美 豆油有所上涨，前期在生柴政策持续缺乏具体消息的情况下，美豆油走势以相对偏下行为主，虽然近期公布的生柴政策并未出现利多，但一定程度 对于整体市场产生带动。受此影响美豆也呈现偏强运行。整体来看，当前美豆市场需求表现比较一般，整体压榨方面支撑力度有限，出口新增幅度 同样比较有限。南美市场近期同样表现出一定利多，一方面巴西降 ...

原油周报：风险偏好增强，地缘影响持续 研究员：赵若晨 期货从业证号：F03151390 投资咨询证号：Z0023496 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周原油走势相对平稳，市场情绪好转，交易仍然主要围绕着地缘波动。包括总统特朗普软对伊朗的表态，在格 陵兰问题上的博弈，以及乌克兰-俄罗斯和平谈判的可能。叠加其余如哈萨克斯坦Tengiz油田短暂中断的扰动以及 欧美寒潮的支撑，增加了油价的波动，总体盘面偏平稳。后期来看，地缘扰动可能进一步走强，军事集结本身就 是最大的不确定性，为油价提供了间歇性的、事件驱动型的上涨动力。 【策略】 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 单边：震荡偏强。 套利：观望。 期权：观望。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC price is relatively strong. Next week, domestic production is expected to decline further, while some downstream enterprises are having pre - holiday promotions, leading to increased production. Export is expected to remain strong. Considering that some downstream enterprises are starting to take holidays and the price of raw material calcium carbide is falling, the PVC market is expected to maintain a strong trend [3]. - For trading strategies: go long at low prices but do not chase high prices for single - side trading; hold off on arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market outlook**: PVC price is strong. Supply may decline slightly as Fujian Wanhua and Shandong Hengtong are under maintenance. Domestic downstream production is expected to decline, but some large enterprises' pre - holiday promotions boost production. Export remains strong due to cold wave news stimulating foreign inquiries. The price of ethylene in US dollars has limited upward potential, and the calcium carbide market is expected to rise strongly next week [3]. - **Trading strategy**: Single - side trading: low - long, do not chase high; Arbitrage: wait - and - see; Over - the - counter: wait - and - see [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Core data changes**: This week, PVC prices fluctuated after rising. The spot supply - demand fundamentals were weak, and inventory increased. Supported by positive economic expectations and bullish commodity outlooks, PVC prices rose during the week. The production of PVC enterprises was 48.21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11% (0.54 tons). The industry inventory was 150.98 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.82% (2.7 tons). The average weekly trading volume was 1.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65 tons. The downstream production enterprises' operating rate was 44.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.95%. The export order volume of PVC production enterprises increased by 1.08% week - on - week to 6.57 tons [4]. - **Supply analysis** - **Enterprise production by process**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Enterprise pre - sales by process**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Enterprise capacity utilization by process**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Raw material source weekly production data difference**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Maintenance enterprises statistics**: In January, multiple enterprises such as Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, and others had maintenance plans, with some due to high - cost reasons and others due to other factors like park influence. In February, Taiwan Formosa Plastics plans to have a two - week maintenance [16]. - **Production enterprise production increase plans**: Multiple enterprises in different provinces have production increase plans with different schedules, such as Zhejiang Jiajiaxingcheng New Materials may start production in the first half of 2026, and Huayi's second - phase project is planned after 2028 [17]. - **Cost analysis** - **Raw material cost historical comparison**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Raw material gross profit historical comparison**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Inventory analysis** - **Production enterprise inventory by process/region**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **PVC social inventory/industry inventory**: The social inventory was 117.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.92% [4]. - **Demand analysis - Product enterprise production and inventory**: The downstream product enterprises' production rate increased, and the raw material inventory available days increased by 0.1 days to 13.90 days. Some enterprises made small purchases at low prices and had some pre - holiday stockpiling [4].