Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Today, steel prices generally maintained a moderately strong oscillating trend, with iron ore leading the increase. Spot steel transactions were generally weak, and the willingness to sell at low prices increased. This week, according to Buguwang data, the production of building materials and hot-rolled coils increased, with building materials increasing at a faster rate. Total steel inventories continued to decline, and social inventories decreased significantly, with the overall inventory reduction rate remaining the same as last week. The apparent demand for building materials decreased slightly, while that for hot-rolled coils increased slightly. Overall demand has some support. It is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline this week, but the blast furnace profit has recovered, and there may be a special increase in production at the end of the month. In December, coal supply may shrink again due to environmental protection factors, and steel mills also have inventory replenishment expectations. There is a structural shortage of PB powder, and steel costs are supported. Although the demand for building materials declines seasonally, the demand from the manufacturing industry still provides support. Affected by the implementation of export license management for steel products, short-term exports will continue at a high level. Steel prices may show a moderately strong oscillating trend due to raw material inventory replenishment, but will perform weaker than in November due to seasonal factors [5]. - Unilateral trading: Steel prices will maintain an oscillating range and may rebound after reaching a short - term bottom [6]. - Arbitrage trading: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - Option trading: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3250 yuan (-), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3120 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3270 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3180 yuan (-) [4]. Market Research and Judgment - **Related Prices**: See the above - mentioned spot prices [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: See the core views for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading strategies [5][6][7][8]. - **Important Information**: From January to November, the national general public budget revenue was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Among them, national tax revenue was 16.4814 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; non - tax revenue was 3.5702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. Central general public budget revenue was 8.8464 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1%; local general public budget revenue at the provincial - level was 11.2052 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. Relevant departments issued the "Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for Clean and Efficient Coal Utilization in Key Areas (2025 Edition)" [9][10]. Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profit situations from 2021 to 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][13][14][16][18][21][24][25][28][29][31][35][38][43][45][48][51][53]

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2223 | 3 | 0.13% | 225,147 | -36.28% | 375,210 | -17.71% | | C2605 | | 2239 | 1 | 0.04% | 100,790 | 16.55% | 452,365 | 3.75% | | C2509 | | 2265 | 0 | 0.00% | 5,099 | -42.68% | 36,210 | -0.79% | | CS2601 | | 2512 | 10 | 0.40% | 72,404 | -21.31% | 129,585 | -6.55% | | CS2605 | ...

【重要资讯】 【尿素】12 月 17 日，尿素行业日产 19.50 万吨，较上一工日持平（修正：上一工作 日日产为 19.50 万吨）；较去年同期增加 1.59 万吨；今日开工率 80.62%，较去年同期 79.24% 下降 1.38%。 大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货主力完成切换，最终报收 1683（+11/+0.66%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价平稳，成交改善，河南出厂报 1600-1620 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1660-1670 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1670-1680 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1570-1590 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1610-1620 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1520-1570 元/吨。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价平稳，受印标刺激，市场情绪升温，成交改善，大部分厂家全面停 售。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪表现尚可，工业复合肥开工率提升，原料库 存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商低价采 购，新单成交火爆，省内尿素厂全面停售，预计出厂报价稳中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector. [17][24][56] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: After a significant decline, there may be a technical rebound, but the rebound without news support may have limited height. The trading strategy is to adopt a high - selling and low - buying approach in a volatile market, wait for the spread of the discount to widen for the IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buying option strategy. [20][21] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Different maturities show differentiated performance. In the short term, it is difficult to determine whether the bond market will turn bearish. The trading strategy is to stop the short positions of TS and TF contracts at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage. [22][23] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: With large supply pressure from new crops, the price of US soybeans continues to decline. The international soybean market is in a pattern of abundant supply. The trading strategy is to wait and see, narrow the MRM spread, and sell the wide - straddle option strategy. [25][26] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are oscillating at a low level, and domestic sugar prices are weak. The Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease, and the international sugar price may bottom - out and oscillate. The domestic sugar market may still maintain a weak trend in the short term. The trading strategy is to go long on the January contract and short on the May contract, and wait and see for options. [28][32] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The overall trend is weakly oscillating. The trading strategy is to buy on dips after the price stops falling and stabilizes, and conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations, and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [34][35] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price has declined, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 contract on dips and establish long positions on the 07 contract at low prices, and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [37][38] - **Hogs**: The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is oscillating. The trading strategy is to adopt a short - selling strategy, and wait and see for arbitrage and sell the wide - straddle option strategy. [39][40] - **Peanuts**: The spot price has declined, and the futures price is oscillating downward. The trading strategy is to short the 03 contract lightly at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option. [41][43] - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. The trading strategy is to go long on the far - month contracts at low prices, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [44][46] - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see, go long on the January contract and short on the October contract, and wait and see for options. [48][50] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales of new cotton are good, and the price is oscillating strongly. The trading strategy is to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [52][54] Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw materials have stopped falling and stabilized, and the steel price is oscillating. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate in a range and may rebound from the bottom in the short term, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread at high prices, and wait and see for options. [57][58] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are oscillating at the bottom. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the current situation has priced in most of the negative factors, and pay attention to the change of trading logic. [60][61] - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach. The current supply of iron ore is abundant, and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to run weakly at a high level. [62][65] - **Ferroalloys**: The cost is supported, but the demand is suppressed. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money straddle option combination. [66][67] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US employment market is cooling down, but under the situation of multiple factors, they are oscillating at a high level. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy the out - of - the - money call option. [69][72] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The non - farm payroll data is lower than expected, and they are oscillating strongly. The trading strategy is to go long on platinum and palladium at low prices, and consider the long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage. [74][76] - **Copper**: Buy after a full correction. The US employment data shows that the labor market is cooling down, and the copper price is expected to rise in the long term. [77][80] - **Alumina**: Be vigilant against the resurgence of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The fundamental situation is still under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate at a low level, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [80][83] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There is uncertainty in the macro - economic outlook, and the price is oscillating with a reduction in positions. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate after a correction, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [84][85] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: There is uncertainty in the macro - economic outlook this week. The trading strategy is to oscillate with the decline of the aluminum price, conduct the AD - AL spread convergence arbitrage during the decline of the aluminum price, and wait and see for options. [87][88] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the magnitude of overseas warehouse delivery. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the overseas delivery has put pressure on the price, and consider the long - domestic and short - overseas strategy when the export window may open intermittently. [89][92] - **Lead**: Pay attention to the change of inventory. The trading strategy is to partially stop the profit of the short positions and hold the rest, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [93][96] - **Nickel**: As a short - position variety, it continues to decline. The trading strategy is to expect the price to decline oscillatingly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [97][98] - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the decline of the nickel price and oscillates weakly. The trading strategy is to expect the price to decline oscillatingly, and wait and see for arbitrage. [100][101] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sell on rallies. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [102][103] - **Polysilicon**: Buy on dips. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and buy on dips, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell the put option. [104][104] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The impact of the mining license is limited, and pay attention to the inventory data. The trading strategy is to operate cautiously at a high level, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option of the 2605 contract when the price rises. [105][107] - **Tin**: Pay attention to the export data of Myanmar in November. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the export data of Myanmar in November and be vigilant against the change of macro - economic sentiment, and wait and see for options. [108][111] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSK tested the price of 2800 in the first week. The trading strategy is to partially stop the profit of the long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the rest, and wait and see for arbitrage. [112][114] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price is close to the annual low, and the geopolitical factor is still the focus. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil price spread is weak, and wait and see for options. [116][117] - **Bitumen**: The oil price has dropped significantly, and there are still concerns about the raw materials. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate and stabilize, and sell the out - of - the - money call option of the BU2602 contract. [119][121] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil remains weak, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is frequently disturbed by the change of devices. The trading strategy is to be bearish, the low - sulfur cracking spread is weak, the high - sulfur cracking spread is weak, and wait and see for options. [121][122] - **Natural Gas**: The downward trend of LNG remains unchanged, and HH continues to correct. The trading strategy is to buy the HH2602 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the TTF call option. [124][126] - **LPG**: It is slightly stronger than oil. The trading strategy is to short the 03 contract at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [127][128] - **PX and PTA**: The PX operating rate remains high, and there is still an expectation of PTA inventory accumulation. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, conduct the reverse arbitrage for the PX3, 5 & PTA1, 5 contracts, and wait and see for options. [130][131] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The supply and demand of pure benzene are loose, and the basis of styrene is loosening. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [133][134] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some enterprises have reduced the operating load, and the price has rebounded slightly. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [136][137] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price has declined. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [138][140] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply and demand are relatively loose. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [141][142] - **Propylene**: The operating rate is rising, and the inventory is at a high level. The trading strategy is to short at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the call option. [143][144] - **Plastic PP**: The electricity consumption of the rubber and plastic industry has decreased slightly month - on - month. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for the L main 2605 contract and try to go long on the PP main 2605 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [146][148] - **Caustic Soda**: It shows an oscillating trend. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [149][151] - **PVC**: It rebounds from the bottom. The trading strategy is to expect the price to rebound from the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [152][153] - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates after the contract roll - over. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the short - term price is expected to be stable. [155][159] - **Glass**: The price oscillates. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [157][160] - **Methanol**: It oscillates widely. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [162][163] - **Urea**: India has tendered again. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate in the short term and run weakly in the medium term, and wait and see for options. [165][166] - **Pulp**: The reality is weak, but the expectation is strong. Pay attention to the registration of warehouse receipts and the change of port inventory. The trading strategy is to hold the previous short positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [169][170] - **Logs**: The fundamental situation is weakening, the futures price is inverted, and pay attention to the registration of warehouse receipts. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 03 contract, gradually stop the profit of the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [171][175] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remains high, and the transmission of high pulp price is less than expected. The trading strategy is to be bearish, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option. [176][178] - **Natural Rubber**: The accumulation of the main visible inventory has slowed down. The trading strategy is to try to short the RU main 05 contract lightly and hold long positions for the NR main 02 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [179][182] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The fixed - asset investment in the domestic rubber and plastic industry continues to slow down. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for the BR main 02 contract, hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread, and wait and see for options. [183][185]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a bearish approach for unilateral trading, and suggests waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options trading [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market sentiment is fluctuating, but the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate the medium - term iron ore price. Since the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of domestic iron elements has remained loose, and the fundamentals of iron ore have changed significantly. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly operate at a high level with a downward trend [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Logic Analysis**: Since December, global iron ore shipments have continued to increase steadily. The supply of domestic iron ore remains in a loose pattern. The domestic terminal steel demand has declined rapidly since the third quarter and is unlikely to improve significantly in the near future. Overseas demand for iron ore maintains high growth. Overall, the domestic steel demand decline is expected to lead the medium - term iron ore price, and the fundamentals of iron ore have changed [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3] Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%/40 million tons. The supply of the four major global mines has increased by over 10 million tons year - on - year. In November, China imported 110.54 million tons of iron ore, and the cumulative import from January to November was 1.141 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 17 million tons [15] - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment**: The global shipment of non - mainstream iron ore has been at a high level year - on - year. The weekly average shipment of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore is 5.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%/24 million tons [17] - **Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore increased slightly, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic total inventory of imported iron ore remained basically flat. Since September, the total domestic iron element inventory has increased by over 12 million tons, and the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore have weakened [27] Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic iron ore demand has shown a mixed trend. Iron water and crude steel production have increased year - on - year, but the apparent demand for building materials and non - building materials has decreased year - on - year. The manufacturing steel demand has shifted from year - on - year growth to negative growth [29] - **Overseas Demand**: From January to October, overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.3%/27 million tons year - on - year. The overseas Indian crude steel production increased by 10%/12.6 million tons from January to October, and is expected to contribute an increment of 15 million tons for the whole year [32] Price and Spread - **Port Price**: The report presents the price trends of 62% Platts iron ore price index, Qingdao Port PB powder, and other products, as well as the spread between different grades of powder [37] - **Port Profit**: The report shows the import profit trends of PB powder, Carajas fines, and other products [39] - **Domestic and Overseas Price Difference**: It includes the price difference between SGX and DCE iron ore futures, and the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore [45] - **Basis and Inter - period Spread**: The report presents the basis of the optimal deliverable against different contracts and the inter - period spreads [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price continues to be weak as the scope of export license management for steel products expands [1] - The five major steel products continue to reduce production this week, but the reduction speed slows down. The iron - water output continues to decline, and the total steel inventory continues to decrease. The apparent demand for steel accelerates to decline seasonally. In the short term, the steel price remains weakly volatile with raw materials, and the performance is weaker than in November. The implementation of export license management for some steel products is expected to have a negative impact on steel exports [7] - The trading strategy suggests a unilateral weak - oscillating trend, recommends short - selling the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices for arbitrage, and advises to wait and see for options [9] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar is 178.78 tons (-10.53), and that of hot - rolled coil is 308.71 tons (-5.6). The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 229.2 tons (-3.1), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 34.5% (+1.4). The cost of electric - arc furnaces has increased slightly, and the profit has slightly declined, but there is still room for production increase. The long - process steel profit remains slightly profitable, and the iron - water output continues to decline with limited downward space [4] - **Demand**: This week, the small - sample apparent demand for rebar is 203.09 tons (-13.89), and that for hot - rolled coil is 311.97 tons (-2.89). The steel demand shows a seasonal decline, but the building materials demand performs well, and the hot - rolled coil export and manufacturing demand are supported. The real - estate data is weak, and the manufacturing PMI shows signs of recovery. The automobile production and export maintain strong growth, and the production schedule reduction of three major white - goods narrows [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of rebar decreases by 24.31 tons (factory inventory - 1.88 tons, social inventory - 22.43 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil decreases by 3.26 tons (factory inventory + 4.11 tons, social inventory - 7.37 tons) [4] - **Outlook**: It is expected that the iron - water output will continue to decline next week, but the blast - furnace profit will recover. The coal - coke price drops, driving the steel price down. However, the steel cost is supported. The short - term steel price remains weakly volatile, and the implementation of export license management for steel products may have a negative impact on exports [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral, weak - oscillating trend; Arbitrage, short - sell the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices; Options, wait and see [9] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Price**: The rebar summary price in Shanghai is 3270 yuan (-30), and in Beijing is 3140 yuan (-70). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai is 3270 yuan (-40), and in Tianjin is 3200 yuan (-40) [13] - **Profit**: The long - process steel profit maintains a small profit. The short - process steel profit: the flat - rate electricity profit of East China electric - arc furnaces is -72.76 yuan (-33.5), and the off - peak electricity profit is 92 yuan (-34) [31] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Overseas**: The US initial jobless claims surge to 23.6 million, and the US manufacturing continues to recover. The euro - zone manufacturing PMI drops to 49.6 [4] - **Domestic**: The Politburo meeting analyzes the economic work in 2026. In November, China's CPI rises by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI drops by 2.2% year - on - year. The Central Economic Work Conference sets the tone for next year's economic work. In October, the new social financing drops significantly, and from January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment is -1.70%. The real - estate data is weak [34][42] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 229.3 tons (-2.38), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 34.5% (+1.4). The small - sample production of rebar is 178.78 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.53 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil is 308.71 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.6 tons [60][66] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar is 203.09 tons (a lunar - calendar year - on - year decrease of 14.9%), a week - on - week decrease of 13.89 tons, and that for hot - rolled coil is 311.97 tons (a lunar - calendar year - on - year decrease of 0.07%), a week - on - week decrease of 2.89 tons. The building materials demand is okay, and the manufacturing demand supports the cold - rolled steel. The steel export remains resilient [69][81] - **Inventory**: The total steel inventory decreases. The rebar inventory decreases, with the factory inventory decreasing by 1.88 tons and the social inventory decreasing by 22.43 tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreases by 3.26 tons, with the factory inventory increasing by 4.11 tons and the social inventory decreasing by 7.37 tons [4]

Market Review - Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1630 (0/0%) [3] - The ex - factory prices in the spot market were stable, but trading was weak. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1600 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1670 - 1680 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1520 - 1570 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On December 16, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.51 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons from the previous working day and 1.44 tons from the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 80.67%, a 0.72% increase from 79.95% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - The ex - factory prices in mainstream regions declined, and market sentiment was stable. In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory prices were weakly stable, market sentiment cooled, the operating rate of industrial compound fertilizer decreased, raw material inventory was abundant, finished - product inventory was high, grass - roots orders were scarce, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand. In Henan, market sentiment was weak, ex - factory prices followed the decline, traders sold goods, the order - receiving volume decreased, and trading was average. In the areas around the delivery zone, ex - factory prices were firm, the market atmosphere was average, demand in Northeast China increased, trading sentiment was okay, and purchases were for agricultural rigid demand [5] - Currently, domestic supply is abundant. The operating rate of compound fertilizer in North China is slowly increasing, and attention should be paid to the order - receiving progress. Overall demand is mainly rigid. Traders have started to sell goods, and the purchasing power at high prices has weakened significantly. The inventory of urea production enterprises decreased by 5.63 tons to around 123.42 tons, remaining at a high level [5] - In the short term, domestic demand is stable, agricultural demand is rigid, the operating rate of compound fertilizer has increased month - on - month, and the sentiment in the spot market is okay. The price difference between domestic and international markets is still large, a new quota has been issued, but the Indian tender has been finalized, and the impact of the international market on the domestic market is weak. In the medium term, the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas has subsided, the procurement of raw materials for domestic compound fertilizer is coming to an end, most of the off - season storage tasks have been completed, overall demand is weak, and the urea fundamentals are still loose, showing a weak trend [5] - In the short term, some manufacturers have significantly reduced prices to 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, order - receiving is okay, and trading has improved, while trading in other high - price regions remains weak. It is expected that urea futures will fluctuate [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Wait and see [6]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Today, apple futures prices dropped significantly, with the main May contract falling 3%. High apple prices have led to poor market demand and slow sales. Traders are turning pessimistic, and spot prices are slightly weak, putting pressure on the futures market. In the short - term, weak demand will dominate the market. The 1 - month contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to delivery cost support. The May contract may trade based on weak demand, but the possibility of a continued sharp decline is low [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 108.24, down 0.75 from the next - working - day level. Prices of various apple varieties like Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 remain stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.53, down 0.04 [2] - **Futures Prices**: The AP01 contract is down 5, AP05 is down 103, and AP10 is down 40. The spreads between different contracts also show changes, such as AP01 - AP05 up 98 and AP05 - AP10 down 63 [2] - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against different contracts shows changes, e.g., Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is up 5 [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - **Transaction Logic**: High apple prices due to reduced production and poor quality have led to weak demand. Last week's cold - storage apple sales volume was only 4.97 tons, and traders' sentiment has turned pessimistic, affecting the futures market [5] - **Transaction Strategy**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, go long on the January contract and short on the October contract for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options trading [8] - **Other Data**: As of December 3, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory in major production areas was 763.51 tons, a decrease of 3.24 tons from the previous week. In October 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 0.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. The export volume was about 8.04 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04% [7] Third Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the prices of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volume in some markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple delivery volume [10][13][19][21][25]

【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2129（+11/+0.52%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1940 元/吨，北线报价 1960 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2020 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1900 元/吨，山西地区报价 2010 元/吨，河南地区报价 2110 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2190 元/吨，鲁北报价 2220 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2130 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2100 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2100 元/吨，宁波报价 2110 元/吨，广州报价 2060 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20251206-20251212）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 914499 吨，较上周下降 30956 吨，装置产能利用率为 62.69%，较上周下降 2.12%。 研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 甲醇日报 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 450 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，暂未招标，非伊开工提升， 外 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market fundamentals are strong due to factors such as fast sales progress of 2025/26 new cotton, potential reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area, and expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity. With the easing of Sino - US relations and tariff cuts, there is a positive outlook for textile exports. Technically, cotton has increased in volume and broken through the previous platform, suggesting potential for future price increases. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The outlook for US cotton is likely to be range - bound, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish. For now, it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of most cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts declined. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13,940 with a decrease of 60, and the CY01 contract closed at 19,855 with a decrease of 40. Trading volumes and open interest also changed, with some contracts showing decreases and others increases [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B (cotton) spot price was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 68, and the CY IndexC32S (cotton yarn) was 20,830, unchanged. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FC Index, etc., also had different changes [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads changed. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was - 5, down 15, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 5,915, up 20 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views **Cotton Market News** - As of December 13, 2024, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 10.1% complete, up 4.8 percentage points month - on - month but 2.1 percentage points slower than the same period last year. The slow start was due to late harvests of previous crops in some areas. Bahia has started large - scale planting, and Mato Grosso is expected to reach its peak in January [4]. - For the week ending November 20, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 33,700 tons, down 21% week - on - week and 14% from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipping volume was 27,400 tons, up 7% week - on - week but 15% lower than the previous four - week average [4]. - As of November 18, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 21.36%, down 0.7 percentage points week - on - week [4]. **Trading Logic** - Fundamentals are positive with fast sales of new cotton, potential reduction in Xinjiang planting area, and expected expansion of textile mills' production capacity. The easing of Sino - US relations and tariff cuts are also beneficial for textile exports [5]. **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [8]. **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Zhengzhou cotton is in a bullish trend, but the pure cotton yarn market has weak trading, mainly driven by rigid demand. Weaving mills' inventories are high, but some are replenishing stocks near the year - end. Cotton yarn prices were stable to weak last week, and some spinning mills with high inventory are reducing prices. Xinjiang spinning mills maintain high operating rates due to price advantages, while those in the inland areas have seen a decline. Attention should be paid to Zhengzhou cotton trends and downstream stock replenishment [8]. - The trading of cotton grey fabrics is generally dull, with only partial areas having restocking. Some weaving mills are operating on small orders, and order processing fees are low. Purchases are mainly small - scale, and inventory reduction is limited [8]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: On November 24, 2025, for example, the CF601C13400.CZC option contract had a closing price of 183, up 71%, and an implied volatility of 6.7% [10]. - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton was 6.4492, with a slight increase. The implied volatilities of different option contracts varied, such as 6.7% for CF601 - C - 13400, 11.4% for CF601 - P - 13000, and 17.8% for CF601 - P - 12400 [10]. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [12]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The content mainly includes various charts such as the 1% tariff - adjusted domestic and foreign cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton yarn and cotton contracts for different months. These charts show historical price data trends from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16]