Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current downstream processing plants are making inventory purchases based on rigid demand. With the recent continuous decline in log spot prices, the downstream delivery has improved in the short term. It is expected that the overall spot prices will stabilize in the future, but the terminal market remains sluggish. The sustainability of price support and trading volume need to be further evaluated. In the medium to long term, under the dual pressure of weakening real estate demand and increasing port inventories, the log spot market still faces challenges [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended that aggressive investors short against the previous high for single - side trading, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread for arbitrage, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for options trading [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.30%. The price of 4 - meter medium - A logs in Taicang is 780 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.27% [5]. - **Supply**: In April 2025, China imported 5.34 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber. From January to April, the import volume was 19.245 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0% [5]. - **Demand**: From January to May 2022, the national new housing construction area was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 380 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 31.9%. Last week, the average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 ports was 71,600 cubic meters, remaining unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Import Cost**: The CFR main price of radiata pine this month is 108 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.3% [5]. 3.1.2 Strategies - **Single - side**: The overall spot prices are stable but weak, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are also generally loose. Aggressive investors can short against the previous high [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [6]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Log Supply - The expected shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China, Japan, South Korea, and India in March 2025 was 2.0025 million cubic meters, an increase of 390,000 cubic meters from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 24.17%. The expected number of ships was 66, an increase of 8 from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 13.79% [14]. 3.2.2 Log Inventory - In April, the average inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.55 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2,500 cubic meters from the average inventory of 3.5525 million cubic meters in March, a decrease of 0.07%. Among them, the average inventory of radiata pine increased by 30,000 cubic meters, North American timber decreased by 80,000 cubic meters, and spruce decreased by 20,000 cubic meters [17]. 3.2.3 Log Demand - The average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 national ports remained at 71,600 cubic meters, the same as last week, indicating stable market demand but lack of short - term upward momentum. The daily delivery volume in Shandong decreased by 7.80%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 8.12% [23]. - As of May 6, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.95%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.47%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 51.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.84 percentage points [23]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Prices - In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32% [30]. - In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Taicang this week is 780 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.70% [30]. - In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs in Rizhao this week is 1060 yuan per cubic meter, remaining unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 6.19% [30]. 3.3.2 Downstream Timber Prices - The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber squares this week is running at XX. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1270 yuan per cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market is 1280 yuan per cubic meter [33]. - The spot price of 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber squares this week is running at XX. The mainstream transaction price in both the Shandong and Jiangsu markets is 1670 yuan per cubic meter [33]. 3.3.3 Import Log Costs - In May 2025, the quoted price range of New Zealand's radiata pine in the outer market is 105 - 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, about 7 - 8 US dollars per JAS cubic meter lower than in April [40]. - In April 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 spruce logs is 120 euros per JAS cubic meter, remaining unchanged from the previous month [40].

木浆成本下行，供需宽松，双胶纸价格承压 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 【综合分析】 基本情况①价格：70g双胶纸企业含税均价为5128.6元/吨，环比降幅3.0%。② 供应端分化：部分纸机转产情况存在，且停产企业暂未恢 复正常生产，新增装置生产暂未放量。需求端疲弱：出版招标订单释放有限，零星低价压制市场预期③成本：针叶浆期货盘面止跌企稳， 但周均价环比仍下跌；阔叶浆价格持续承压下探，贸易商报价混乱。 【逻辑】 双胶纸：供应：行业盈利水平仍较低，工厂转产情况存在，市场供应趋稳。需求：秋季出版订单释放进度缓慢，社会面订单仍显不振，整 体终端消费跟进不及预期，下游印厂开工水平不高，用户原纸库存消耗缓慢，无明显大量囤库意愿。成本：国内港口库存仍处于高位，叠 加进口浆现货市场货源充裕，市场对供应过剩担忧加剧，木浆价格整体趋弱。 【策略】 胶版印刷纸预期下周偏弱调整。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 综合分析与交易策略 第一部分 综合分 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of live pigs across the country is mainly fluctuating, with slight declines in some areas. The supply - side pressure is relatively limited, and it is expected that the pig price will generally continue to fluctuate. The futures market is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Information - **Spot prices**: Today, the average spot price of live pigs was 14.37 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in most regions remained stable, with slight declines in some areas such as Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Yunnan, Hebei, and Guizhou [4]. - **Futures prices**: Some futures contracts showed an upward trend. For example, LH07 increased by 50 to 13,575, and LH09 increased by 15 to 13,885. However, some contracts declined, like LH01 decreased by 5 to 13,780, and LH05 decreased by 110 to 14,090 [4]. - **Prices of sows and piglets**: Piglet prices were 517 yuan this week, down 12 yuan from last week, while sow prices remained unchanged at 1,631 yuan [4]. - **Breeding profits**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 84.33 yuan/head, down 0.71 yuan/head from yesterday, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, up 9.92 yuan/head from yesterday [4]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation - **Slaughter volume**: The slaughter volume today was 147,333 heads, an increase of 100 heads from yesterday [4]. - **Weight and price difference of pigs**: The price difference between different weights of pigs has significantly decreased compared to before. The enthusiasm for weight gain on the breeding side is average. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has declined [4]. - **Farmers' sales**: The sales situation on the breeding side has slightly improved. The sales of large - weight pigs have increased, while the motivation for selling standard pigs remains low. The sales of large - scale enterprises have returned to normal after a previous increase in the sales rhythm [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Mainly fluctuate [7]. - **Arbitrage**: LH79 reverse arbitrage [7]. - **Options**: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the supply - side pressure on the粕类 market is limited, and the futures market shows a volatile rebound. The international soybean market has near - term support, while the domestic粕类 market has a complex situation with some improvement in spot conditions but also uncertainties in supply and demand [4][5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures are strong due to macro - level positives, monthly supply - demand reports, and changes in biodiesel policies. The domestic futures are relatively weak, with the soybean meal market stronger than the rapeseed meal market. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are volatile [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The near - term pressure on the international soybean market is limited. US soybean exports are good, and the April soybean crush volume has a significant year - on - year increase. Brazil's selling pressure is reduced, and the harvest progress is high. The new US soybean crop has good demand but export uncertainty [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market has improved. The oil mill crush volume has increased, and the inventory has slightly risen. The开机率 is relatively high, and the supply is reasonable. The demand for rapeseed meal is strong in the near - term, but the supply is abundant, and there are uncertainties in the long - term [5][6]. 3.3 Macro - level Analysis The reduction of tariffs between China and the US has led to a market recovery, but the粕类 market reaction is limited. The domestic soybean supply is less affected by policies, but there are still uncertainties, and the soybean meal is supported by policies in the long - term [7]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures have strengthened slightly. The supply pressure in Brazil may be reduced, but there are still uncertainties. The domestic soybean meal spot has little change, and the inventory pressure may increase with more soybean arrivals and higher开机率, affecting the monthly spreads [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market has little change. The recent decline reflects supply uncertainties. The supply is sufficient, and both supply and demand may decrease in the future, with the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillating [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: The market is expected to move in a volatile manner. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: A strategy of selling wide straddles is suggested [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans/meal, the old - crop situation is overall bullish, while the new - crop has its own supply - demand characteristics. The market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - For sugar, the international sugar market may face a supply surplus in 2025/26, while the domestic sugar market is expected to have a stable supply - demand gap. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [6][7][9]. - For the oil sector, the MPOB report has a neutral - to - bearish impact, but the overall sentiment of commodities has improved. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and the market is in a rebound phase [17]. - For corn/corn starch, the US corn market is weak, while the domestic corn market is strong in the spot market, and the futures market has support [26]. - For hogs, the market is slightly volatile, with the spot price falling slowly and the futures market moving in a volatile manner [32]. - For peanuts, the short - term market is expected to be slightly stronger, with factors such as the expected increase in new - season planting area and weather conditions affecting the market [37]. - For eggs, the overall supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to close out short positions and wait and see [48]. - For apples, the cold - storage inventory is low, and the market supply is likely to be tight before the new fruit is on the market. The price is expected to maintain a slightly stronger and volatile trend [53]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, due to the positive results of Sino - US trade negotiations, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to strengthen under the influence of the macro - level [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 1.52% to 1069.5 cents/bu, and CBOT meal index rose 0.1% to 297.8 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: ANEC expects Brazil's soybean and meal exports in May to increase; EU's 2024/25 imports of soybeans, rapeseed, and meal are higher than last year; USDA's monthly supply - demand report shows bullish old - crop and new - crop has its own supply - demand data; oil mills' soybean and meal inventory data changed [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is mainly in a volatile mode; arbitrage is on hold; use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [4]. Sugar - **External Market**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.42 (2.71%) to 18.18 cents/lb [5]. - **Important Information**: Louis Dreyfus predicts a supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar market; China's sugar production and consumption are expected to change; Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of May decreased; domestic sugar spot prices and trading conditions [6][7][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, partially close out long positions and partially hold; arbitrage is on hold; sell wide - straddle options or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11][12]. Oil Sector - **External Market**: Overnight, CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil had price changes [14]. - **Related Information**: MPOB's April palm oil supply - demand data shows inventory increase; SPPOMA data indicates palm oil production increase in early May; EU's palm oil and other oil imports change; domestic oil trading volume increased [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, consider lightly going long on palm oil or shorting after a rebound; for the YP 09 spread, partially close out positions and partially hold; options are on hold [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Change**: CBOT corn futures declined, with the main contract falling 0.8% to 443.5 cents/bu [24]. - **Important Information**: CBOT corn futures fell due to technical selling and good sowing conditions; US corn planting and emergence rates are high; future weather in the main producing areas is expected to be favorable; domestic corn port prices and spot prices changed [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, try to go long on 07 corn; for arbitrage, operate the corn - starch spread in a volatile manner and buy 07 starch and short 07 corn; for options, consider the strategy of selling call options on the spot [27][29][30]. Hogs - **Related Information**: Hog prices are in a volatile state; prices of piglets and sows changed; agricultural product wholesale price index and pork average price decreased [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a bearish approach; for arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse spread; sell wide - straddle options [33]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable; peanut oil factory arrivals, prices, and inventory changed; peanut oil and peanut meal prices and sales conditions [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, lightly go long on 10 peanuts in a short - term and operate in a volatile manner; arbitrage and options are on hold [40][41][42]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg prices in the main producing and selling areas changed; in - production laying hen inventory, egg - chick hatching, hen culling, egg sales, and inventory data changed [44][45][47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, close out short positions and wait and see; for arbitrage, go long on 08 and short 09; options are on hold [48][49][50]. Apples - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased, exports and imports changed; spot prices are stable, and storage merchants' profit increased [52][53]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, build long positions on AP10 at low prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [56][54]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton declined, with the main contract falling 0.23 (0.35%) to 66.25 cents/lb [55]. - **Important Information**: Sino - US trade negotiations achieved progress; USDA's 25/26 cotton supply - demand data changed; the out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index is stable [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, US cotton is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to strengthen; arbitrage and options are on hold [58][60].

大宗商品研究所 能化研发报告 玻璃期货日报 2025 年 5 月 14 日 玻璃期货日报 第一部分 基础数据 | 现货市场（元/吨） | 2025/5/13 | 2025/5/12 | 上周 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沙河长城 | 1181 | 1181 | 1198 | 0 | -17 | | 沙河安全 | 1220 | 1220 | 1228 | 0 | -9 | | 沙河德金 | 1164 | 1164 | 1173 | 0 | -9 | | 沙河大板 | 1190 | 1194 | 1207 | -4 | -17 | | 湖北大板 | 1120 | 1160 | 1160 | -40 | -40 | | 浙江大板 | 1400 | 1400 | 1400 | 0 | 0 | | 华南大板 | 1320 | 1320 | 1320 | 0 | 0 | | 东北大板 | 1240 | 1240 | 1240 | 0 | 0 | | 西北大板 | 1280 | 1280 | 1280 | 0 | 0 | | 西南大板 | 13 ...

投资咨询证号： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 【粕类日报】新作需求良好 盘面震荡回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/5/13 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2937 | -11 | 天津 | 180 | 250 | -70 | | -16 | 0 5 | 2746 | | 东莞 | 150 | 170 | -20 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2886 | -22 | | 9 0 | 100 | -10 | | | | | | 日照 | 100 | 110 | -10 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2295 | -17 | 南通 | -67 ...

第一部分 数据分析 银河期货油脂日报 2025/5/13 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 油脂日报 1 / 5 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7792 | (22) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8172 | | | | 8142 | 8092 | | 350 | -10 | 380 | -20 | 300 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 7954 | (70) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8554 | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 【生猪日报】出栏方面稳定 价格窄幅震荡 | 生猪价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/5/13 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 今 日 | | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 15.11 | 15.11 | 0.00 | 山 西 | 14.84 | 14.84 | 0 | | 湖北（0） | 14.61 | 14.65 | -0.04 | 辽 宁 | 14.61 | 14.61 | 0 | | 安徽（300） | 15.19 | 15.23 | -0.04 | 吉 林 | 14.54 | 14.54 | 0 | | 湖南（100） | 14.35 | 14.35 | 0.00 | 黑龙江 | 14.41 | 14.41 | 0 | | （-200） | 四川 14.57 | 14.57 | 0.00 | 福 建 | 14.92 | 14.92 | 0 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. The spot price has started to decline in the past two days, and the 06 contract has begun to trade based on the near - month delivery logic. It is recommended to go short on rallies [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Fundamental Information - **Price**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas today is 3.15 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.31 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country continued to rise today. The national average price of culled chickens is 5.14 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [3][6][9]. - **Inventory**: In April, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from May to August 2025 will be 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - **Sales and Inventory**: As of the week of May 1st, the sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was 8,816 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links increased by 0.03 days and 0.05 days respectively compared to the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of May 1st, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.11 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On May 2nd, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 20.08 yuan/feather, an increase of 0.2 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 3.2 Trading Logic The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. The spot price has started to decline in the past two days, and the 06 contract has begun to trade based on the near - month delivery logic. It is recommended to go short on rallies [10]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Hold the previous short positions and consider partial profit - taking [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [11]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides 15 charts, including the spot price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas, the price of egg - laying hen chicks, the price of culled chickens, the feed cost per jin of eggs, the inventory of laying hens and future inventory projections, various spreads and basis, and the profit expectations of egg - laying hen farming and the single - jin average profit trend of fresh eggs [13][17][21][25][29][40][42].