Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current downstream processing plants purchase based on inventory needs. With the recent continuous decline in log spot prices, the short - term downstream delivery has improved. It is expected that the overall spot prices will stabilize in the future, but the terminal market remains sluggish. The sustainability of price support and trading volume need to be considered. In the medium - to - long - term, the log spot market still faces challenges under the dual pressure of weakening real - estate demand and increasing port inventories [6]. - The exchange will organize multiple log simulation deliveries in the future. Attention should be paid to the size difference between the national standard size and the market size, which will greatly affect log valuation [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Price: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan/cubic meter, with a week - on - week flat. The price of 4 - meter medium - A log in Taicang is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also with a week - on - week flat. The expected log arrival volume is 18.92 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 70%. The total inventory of coniferous logs this period is 3.43 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. From January to May 2022, the national new housing construction area was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 380 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 31.9%. The average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 61,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10.35%. The CFR main price of radiata pine this month is 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month decrease of 4% [6]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: The overall spot market is stable with a weakening trend. It is recommended to wait and see. In the short term, the futures have fallen sharply, the basis is inverted, and there is a risk of delivery valuation repair due to the delivery size difference. Aggressive investors can lay out long positions based on the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Log Supply - New Zealand log expected shipment volume: In March 2025, the expected shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China, Japan, South Korea, and India is 2.0025 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 24.17%. The expected number of ships is 66, a month - on - month increase of 13.79%. From May 12th to May 18th, 2025, in the 20th week, 18 ports are expected to have 7 coniferous log ships arriving, a week - on - week decrease of 63%. The total arrival volume is about 189,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 70% [15]. 3.2.2 Log Inventory - The total domestic log inventory is 3.43 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters (- 2.28%) compared with the previous period. The inventory of coniferous logs is decreasing at an accelerated pace, but there are significant differences among different species. Radiata pine inventory is 2.7 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters (+ 1.50%); North American log inventory is 330,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters (- 17.50%); Spruce/fir inventory is 200,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters (- 13.04%). Northern ports are mainly reducing inventory, while some southern ports are increasing inventory [19]. 3.2.3 Log Demand - As of May 9th, the average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 ports is 61,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 10.35% compared with the previous period. The areas with a decrease in shipment volume include Shandong, Jiangsu, and Tianjin - Hebei, while the areas with an increase include Fujian and Guangdong. As of May 13th, the sample construction site fund availability rate is 59.1%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. The non - real - estate project fund availability rate is 60.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points, while the real - estate project fund availability rate is 51.33%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 percentage points [25]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Prices - Shandong: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week is 760 yuan/cubic meter, flat compared with last week and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%. - Jiangsu: The price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week is 780 yuan/cubic meter, flat compared with last week and a year - on - year decrease of 3.70%. - Shandong: The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week is 1110 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 4.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.77% [34]. 3.3.2 Downstream Timber Prices - Radiata pine timber: The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber (including tax and transportation) remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1270 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1280 yuan/cubic meter. - Spruce/white pine timber: The spot price of 3000*40*90 white pine timber (including tax and transportation) showed a strong trend this week. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1700 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1670 yuan/cubic meter [39]. 3.3.3 Import Log Costs - In May 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs is 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 4 US dollars/cubic meter compared with last month. The CFR price of 11.8 - meter 20+ spruce logs is 123 euros/JAS cubic meter, an increase of 3 euros/cubic meter compared with last month. The New Zealand external price continues to decline, and the central level of log import costs continues to move down [44].

高硫旺季需求支撑，低硫近端供应回升 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 高硫燃料油当周近月裂解及月差均环比上行，现货贴水受近端供应压制维持在0值以下。短期内俄乌局势及欧美对俄制裁仍不明朗， 炼厂春季季节性检修，俄罗斯对外高硫出口暂无增长预期。墨西哥高硫主要供应炼厂二次产能逐步完善，对外高硫出口回落。需求端， 高硫季节性发电需求逐步启动，埃及已陆续发布高硫招标以用于发电，伊朗和沙特发电需求均开始提升。 低硫燃料油现货贴水震荡，但低硫供应持续回升且下游需求仍较疲弱。南苏丹对外低硫原料供应逐步回归，5至6月已有8船低硫货装 载预期，5月第一船60万桶预计于5月下旬到达新马地区。Al-Zour低硫出口回升至炼厂正常运行时期高位。尼日利亚近端低硫出口回 升且均往新加披方向，Dangote催化裂化装置听闻重回新开始运营，密切关注对外低 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Demand is stable month - on - month, supply has rebounded, and the inventory accumulation speed of the industrial chain has slowed down since the second quarter. Low inventory supports near - term spot prices and benefits the long - term peak - season expectations. Oil prices are under pressure due to the smooth progress of the Iran nuclear deal. The unilateral price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and there is room for the asphalt/oil price spread to widen. The operating range of the BU2506 contract is expected to be between 3400 - 3550 [8]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On May 16, 2025, the prices of BU2506 (the main contract), BU2507, and BU2508 increased by 1.27%, 0.49%, and 0.35% respectively compared to the previous day, while SC2506 decreased by 1.51%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 4.62% to 7.5 million lots, and trading volume decreased by 8.92% to 11.9 million lots. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 86,520 tons [2]. - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: The spreads of BU06 - 07 and BU07 - 08 increased by 122.73% and 25.00% respectively. The Shandong - main contract basis, East China - main contract basis, and South China - main contract basis decreased by 12.50%, 30.36%, and 26.56% respectively [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The low - end prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged. Shandong gasoline and diesel prices decreased by 0.66% and 0.79% respectively. The price of Shandong petroleum coke remained unchanged, and the discount of diluted asphalt remained at - 5.3. The central parity rate of the exchange rate decreased by 0.03% [2]. - **Spreads and Profits**: Asphalt refinery profits decreased by 53.26% to - 79.00, refined oil comprehensive profits decreased by 12.14% to 365.91, BU - SC cracking spread increased by 19.83% to - 267.43, gasoline spot - Brent decreased by 5.58% to 941.70, and diesel spot - Brent decreased by 7.23% to 737.01 [2]. 2. Market Analysis - **Market Overview**: On May 16, the average domestic asphalt price was 3,673 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous day. Crude oil prices continued to fall, and market sentiment was cautious. In the North, although the prices of major refineries increased, actual demand was insufficient, and traders' selling prices decreased to stimulate sales. In the South, major refineries mainly shipped by sea, and asphalt prices lacked upward momentum [5]. - **Regional Markets**: In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,600 - 3,760 yuan/ton. Refinery inventories were low, but due to falling crude oil prices and weak terminal demand, some refineries and traders slightly reduced prices. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,570 yuan/ton. Major refineries planned to reduce production, which supported prices. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,380 - 3,430 yuan/ton. Demand was weak, and some refineries reduced prices to stimulate sales. Future demand is expected to gradually recover, but the rainy season and unstable crude oil prices will keep asphalt prices weakly stable [5][6]. 3. Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the closing price of the BU main contract, the open interest of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of Shandong local refinery gasoline and diesel, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [11][13][16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The near - term high - sulfur supply in the Asian market remains abundant, with high inventories of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore on land and in floating storage. There is still a medium - term supply gap due to geopolitical and sanctions affecting exports from Russia and the Middle East. The seasonal power - generation demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually starting. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is continuously rising while the downstream demand is weak [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Related Data - On May 16, 2025, the FU main contract was 2989, up 4 from the previous day and 40 from the week before; the LU main contract was 3572, down 23 from the previous day and up 100 from the week before. The FU main contract's open interest was 156,000 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,000 lots and a weekly increase of 7,000 lots; the LU main contract's open interest was 80,000 lots, with a daily increase of 3,000 lots and a weekly increase of 14,000 lots. The FU warehouse receipts were 28,950 tons, a daily decrease of 7,000 tons; the LU warehouse receipts were 0 tons. The FU7 - 9 spread was 165, down 2 from the previous day and 11 from the week before; the LU7 - 8 spread was 81, down 5 from the previous day and up 29 from the week before. The LU - FU main contract spread was 583, down 27 from the previous day and up 60 from the week before. The FU07 - foreign 07 spread was 5.3, down 1.8 from the previous day and the week before; the LU07 - foreign 06 spread was 9.1, down 0.4 from the previous day and up 6.8 from the week before [3] 2. Market Research and Judgment Market Overview - The FU high - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were 28,950 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons compared to May 15. The LU low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were 0 tons, remaining at 0 for four days. In the Singapore paper - cargo market, the high - sulfur Jun/July spread rose from 16.5 to 18.5 US dollars per ton, and the low - sulfur Jun/July spread rose from 9.3 to 9.8 US dollars per ton [5] Important Information - In April, Russia's seaborne oil product exports decreased by 2.6% compared to March, reaching 9.407 million metric tons. The total imports rebounded to nearly 850,000 tons after a significant decline the previous week [6] Market Judgment - The near - term high - sulfur supply in the Asian market remains abundant, with high inventories in Singapore. There is a medium - term supply gap as exports from Russia and the Middle East are affected by geopolitics and sanctions. The high - sulfur power - generation demand is starting seasonally. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the spot premium fluctuates, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. South Sudan's low - sulfur raw material supply is gradually returning, and Al - Zour's low - sulfur exports have reached a high level. Nigeria's low - sulfur exports are increasing, and China has sufficient low - sulfur quotas with weak downstream demand [7] 3. Related Attachments - The report provides six figures including Singapore's high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur spreads, LSFO - GO, high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of peanuts is average, the price of general peanuts is strong, the purchase price of oil mills is stable, and the price of imported peanuts has increased. The market expects an increase in the planting area of new crops, but the recent drought in Henan and other places may affect production. The 10th peanut contract continued to rebound this week, and the 10 - 1 spread increased. [4] - It is recommended to go long on the 10th peanut contract at around 8100, go long on the 10 - 1 spread at low levels, and try the option strategy of selling pk510 - p - 7800. [4] Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Logic**: The trading volume of peanuts is average, the price of general peanuts is strong, the purchase price of oil mills is stable, the price of imported peanuts has increased, the opening rate of oil mills has slightly decreased, the inventory of peanut meal has slightly decreased following soybean meal, the price of peanut oil has increased, and the profit of oil mills has increased. The downstream consumption is still weak, the inventory of peanut oil in oil mills has slightly decreased, and the peanut inventory remains high. [4] - **Strategies**: Go long on the 10th peanut contract at around 8100; the current lowest warehouse receipt is around 8200 yuan/ton, and the futures price is slightly higher than the spot price; go long on the 10 - 1 spread at low levels; try the option strategy of selling pk510 - p - 7800. [4] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Peanut Price**: Domestic peanuts in the Northeast and Henan regions have strong prices. The price of general peanuts in Shandong, Henan, and other places has increased. The purchase price of oil mills is stable, and the price of imported Sudanese peanuts has increased. [6][8] - **Domestic Demand**: The opening rate of oil mills has decreased, and the peanut inventory remains high. The current opening rate of peanut oil mills is 13.38%, a decrease of 1.89% from the previous week. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 15.4 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons from the previous week, and the peanut oil inventory is 4.05 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons from the previous week. [9][11] - **Pressing Profit**: The purchase price of peanut oil mills is stable, the price of peanut meal has decreased, but the price of peanut oil has increased, resulting in an increase in the pressing profit of oil mills to 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton from the previous week. [12][14] - **Basis and Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of peanuts has increased from around 60 to around 100. The current warehouse receipt price is 8000 yuan/ton, and the general peanut price is 8200 yuan/ton. [15][19] - **Peanut Import**: From January to March, the import volume of peanut kernels decreased by 59.4% compared to the same period last year, the export volume increased by 21%, and the import volume of peanut oil increased by 30%. [20][22] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Peanut Price**: The price of peanuts in Shandong, Henan, and the Northeast has increased, and the purchase price of oil mills is stable. The price of imported Sudanese peanuts has increased to 8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week. [8] - **Domestic Demand**: The opening rate of oil mills has decreased, and the peanut inventory remains high. The current opening rate of peanut oil mills is 13.38%, a decrease of 1.89% from the previous week. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 15.4 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons from the previous week, and the peanut oil inventory is 4.05 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons from the previous week. [11] - **Pressing Profit**: The pressing profit of oil mills has increased to 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of peanut oil has increased, and the price of peanut meal has decreased. [14] - **Basis and Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of peanuts has increased from around 60 to around 100. The current warehouse receipt price is 8000 yuan/ton, and the general peanut price is 8200 yuan/ton. [19] - **Peanut Import**: From January to March, the import volume of peanut kernels decreased by 59.4% compared to the same period last year, the export volume increased by 21%, and the import volume of peanut oil increased by 30%. [22]

苹果周报：走货有所放缓 果价趋于稳定 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 内容摘要 GALAXY FUTURES 1 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 第一部分 逻辑分析及交易策略 栖霞一二级纸袋80#（元/斤） 洛川半商品纸袋70#（元/斤） 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1-1 1-14 1-27 2-9 2-22 3-7 3-20 4-2 4-15 4-28 5-11 5-24 6-6 6-19 7-2 7-15 7-28 8-10 8-23 9-5 9-18 10-1 10-14 10-27 11-9 11-22 12-5 12-18 12-31 栖霞一、二级纸袋80# 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1-1 1-14 1-27 2-9 2-22 3-7 3-20 4-2 4-15 4-28 5-11 5-24 6-6 6-19 7-2 7-15 7-28 8-10 8-23 9-5 9-18 10-1 10-14 10-27 11-9 11-22 12-5 12 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. The egg price has shown signs of stabilization recently after falling to the current level. It is recommended to close out previous short positions for profit and wait and see [16]. - In the short - term, the market sentiment has pushed up the egg price, but the downstream is cautious about high - priced goods and mainly purchases based on sales. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.94 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.57 yuan/jin compared to last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.16 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.51 yuan/jin compared to last Friday. The price in the main producing areas rose strongly this week. As the egg price continued to rise, the terminal was a bit resistant to high - priced goods, and downstream traders were more cautious in purchasing [5]. - The prices of old hens varied. The prices of large - sized old hens like Hy - Line Brown trended upwards, while those of small - sized old hens like Hy - Line Grey continued to decline. The current old - hen slaughter is more significantly affected by the egg price, and the old - hen price is in an adjustment stage [5]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - After the festival, the demand declined, but as the egg price rose, the enthusiasm for purchasing increased, and the shipment volume in the producing areas increased. From May 8th to 15th, the average age of culled hens was 534 days, 1 day less than the previous week. From May 9th to 16th, the slaughter volume of culled hens in the main producing areas was 18.56 million, a 7.5% increase from the previous week [9]. - In April, the inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a 7.2% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. The monthly output of chicks from sample enterprises in April was 46.985 million, a 1.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.5% year - on - year increase. Without considering delayed or concentrated slaughter, the estimated inventory of laying hens from May to August 2025 will be 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [9]. 3.3 Cost Analysis - As of May 15th, the corn price rose to around 2374 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price fell to 3074 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2584 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.84 yuan/jin for eggs [12]. - This week, the egg price trended upwards, and the egg - farming cost decreased. As of May 16th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.12 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. On May 9th, the expected profit per laying hen was 20.15 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.8 yuan/hen from the previous week [12]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - In the first half of the week, as the egg price rebounded and the Dragon Boat Festival approached, the demand in the selling areas improved, and the sales volume increased. After the stocking ended, the downstream mainly replenished low - priced goods. As of May 1st, the sales volume of eggs in the representative selling areas was 8716 tons, a 1.4% increase from the previous week [15]. - This week, the egg inventory decreased significantly. As of May 15th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1 day, a decrease of 0.33 days from the previous week [15]. - This week, the vegetable price index remained low, and the pork price index also declined. On May 15th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 86.95, and the average national wholesale price of pork was about 15.96 yuan/kg, slightly lower than the previous week [15]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The overall egg supply is expected to be sufficient, and the egg price has shown signs of stability recently. It is recommended to close out previous short positions for profit and wait and see [16]. - Unilateral trading: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract. - Options: Wait and see. 3.6 Weekly Data Tracking - Inventory: In April, the inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a 7.2% year - on - year increase. The monthly output of chicks from sample enterprises in April was 46.985 million, a 1.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.5% year - on - year increase [9]. - Culling situation: From May 9th to 16th, the slaughter volume of culled hens in the main producing areas was 18.56 million, a 7.5% increase from the previous week. From May 8th to 15th, the average age of culled hens was 534 days, 1 day less than the previous week [9]. - Egg - farming situation: Relevant data on the average price of chicks in the main producing areas and the age of culled hens are presented, but specific values are not detailed in the summary part [23]. - Price difference and basis: Graphs of basis and price differences for different months (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, etc.) are provided, showing the historical trends of price differences and basis [25][26][28].

棉系周报：宏观情绪有所释放 郑棉走势略偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 GALAXY FUTURES 3 ◼ 美棉市场：考虑到当前美国天气端有一定不确定性可能会对美棉生长带来一定影响，并且考虑到未来越南等一些国家可能会继续增加对美棉的采 购，对美棉形成一定的利多影响，预计美棉走势震荡略偏强。 ◼ 美棉生长情况：截止5月11日，美棉15个棉花主要种植州棉花种植率为28%，较去年同期慢4%；近五年同期平均水平在31%，较近五年同期平均水 平慢3个百分点。美棉种植进度同比偏慢，德州种植进度同比持平。天气方面，截止到5月6日，美棉主产区（93.0%）的干旱程度和覆盖率指数 117，环比-10，同比+56；德克萨斯州的干旱程度和覆盖率指数为182，环比-16，同比+92。美国主产区以及德州干旱指数继续下行。 ◼ ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the entire有色金属 industry. Instead, it offers specific trading strategies for different metals, which can be considered as implicit investment suggestions for each metal sub - sector. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes multiple metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. It notes that market risk sentiment has improved due to potential trade agreements, but US macro - data is mixed, affecting the dollar and metal prices. For most metals, it believes that current prices are in an adjustment phase after a period of movement, with varying degrees of uncertainty in future supply and demand and price trends [3]. 3. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold rose 1.98% to $3239.6/oz, London silver rose 1.3% to $32.63/oz. The US dollar index fell 0.16% to 100.88, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.449%. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.2067 [2]. - **Important News**: Japan seeks a third - round US - Japan trade negotiation, and the EU and the US will accelerate trade talks. US macro - data shows mixed results, with the 4 - month retail sales rate at 0.1%, and the 4 - month PPI annual rate at 2.4%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 91.7% [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The risk premium of precious metals may be cleared in the short term, but considering inflation and trade uncertainties, they are in an adjustment phase after a rapid rise [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips with light positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper closed at $9600, up $8 or 0.08%. LME inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,600 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1523 short tons to 168,563 short tons [5]. - **Important News**: US April PPI decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, the largest decline in five years [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment supports prices. After the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, US scrap copper imports may flow back to China. The scrap - refined copper spread has decreased, and some enterprises have cut production. Copper inventory has increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the text. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session alumina 2509 contract rose to 2995 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions increased, and overseas market prices also rose [8]. - **Important News**: Overseas and domestic spot alumina transactions occurred, and the national alumina inventory decreased by 42,000 tons to 3.246 million tons [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The balance between supply and demand has tightened due to increased maintenance capacity, but new production and potential resumption of production may change the situation [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect high - level fluctuations, consider shorting if supply - demand returns to surplus; wait and see for arbitrage and options [9][11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract rose to 20,295 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [13]. - **Important News**: The US revoked 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods, and China's April social financing and other financial data were announced. Aluminum inventory decreased by 8000 tons [13][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The easing of Sino - US trade relations improves demand expectations, and low inventory in May may support prices [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect prices to oscillate strongly; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 1.25% to $2726/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2506 fell 0.64% to 22,595 yuan/ton. Spot trading was light [18]. - **Important News**: US April PPI data was released, and domestic zinc inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 863,000 tons [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Global zinc mine supply is increasing, and domestic production is expected to be stable in May. Supply growth exceeds demand growth, and inventory may accumulate [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: consider shorting on rallies, beware of capital - driven price fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead rose 0.52% to $2004.5/ton, and Shanghai lead 2506 rose 0.62% to 17,025 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand [23]. - **Important News**: Lead inventory increased by 85,000 tons to 560,000 tons, and sellers' willingness to sell increased while buyers were cautious [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Both supply and demand of lead are weak, and prices may oscillate [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the text. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose to $15,805/ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2506 rose to 125,230 yuan/ton. Spot premiums decreased [26]. - **Important News**: A nickel project in Tanzania is planned to start construction, and a Philippine company's Q1 net profit increased significantly [26][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term news affects sentiment, but fundamentals change little. Supply may increase after weather improves, and demand is entering the off - season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect range - bound fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling options within the range [30]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel SS2507 contract fell to 13,020 yuan/ton, and spot prices were stable. Social inventory decreased by 0.42% [32]. - **Important News**: Not provided in the text. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term prices may oscillate above cost. 300 - series production is decreasing, and demand is affected by macro - factors [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect short - term strong oscillations; wait and see for arbitrage [34]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures contract rose 0.36% to 8410 yuan/ton, and spot prices were stable [36]. - **Important News**: A new project's environmental impact report was publicized [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production is expected to increase in May, while demand from organic silicon and polycrystalline silicon is weak. Supply exceeds demand, and inventory is over 800,000 tons [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: short on rallies; wait and see for options; conduct reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [36][38]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Market Review**: The polycrystalline silicon futures contract fell 0.68% to 37,920 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined slightly [39]. - **Important News**: A report predicted global photovoltaic market growth [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand both decreased in May, and there may be a shortage of deliverable goods for the 06 contract. The 07 contract may follow fundamental logic [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: short the PS2507 contract; or short - term long PS2506 and short PS2507, then switch to short - side allocation; sell PS2507 - C - 40000 options; conduct long PS2506 and short PS2507 arbitrage [42][43]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2507 contract fell to 64,120 yuan/ton, and spot prices rose slightly [44]. - **Important News**: A futures brand was solicited, and a UK miner faced export obstacles [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Low - cost producers have profits, demand is weak, and there is an oversupply expectation in May and June [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage; hold put ratio options [45]. Tin - **Market Review**: Shanghai tin rose 0.18% to 265,850 yuan/ton, and spot trading was light [47]. - **Important News**: Indonesia's tin exports increased year - on - year in April, and US PPI data was released [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment is positive, and short - term supply is tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness is relieved [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect short - term oscillations, pay attention to supply; wait and see for options [48].

2025 年 5 月 16 日 银河能化-20250516 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-05-16） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：WTI2506 合约 61.62 跌 1.53 美元/桶，环比-2.42%；Brent2507 合约 64.53 跌 1.56 美元/桶，环比-2.36%。SC 主力合约 2507 跌 6.6 至 471.7 元/桶，夜盘跌 10.1 至 461.6 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.50 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 美国总统特朗普周四表示，美国非常接近与伊朗达成核协议；德黑兰也"在某种程度上"同 意了协议条款。然而，一位伊朗消息人士称，与美国的谈判仍然存在需要弥合的差距。伊 朗和美国谈判代表为解决德黑兰核计划争端而举行的会谈周日在阿曼结束，官员表示，由 于德黑兰公然坚持继续进行铀浓缩活动，预计还将进一步谈判。 俄罗斯总统普京拒绝周四在土耳其与泽连斯基面对面会谈，而是派出一个二级官员组成的 代表团参加计划中的和平谈判，而泽连斯基表示，基辅将派出由国防部长率领的代表团。 这将是自 2022 年 3 月以来双方首次直接会谈，但美国总统特朗普表示，如果他与普京不 举行会谈，就 ...