Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the recent drought in Argentina, the supply pressure has weakened, and it is expected that U.S. corn will oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of corn in North China has increased, and the spot price of corn is stable, while that in Northeast China is relatively stable. Farmers' reluctance to sell has begun to ease, and the spot price will remain relatively stable in the short term. The purchase price at northern ports is weak today. The price of wheat in North China is strong, and the price difference between corn in Northeast and North China is widening. Recently, the market has been trading on the increased grain sales in North China before the Spring Festival, and there is still selling pressure on corn in Northeast China later. The rebound space for corn spot is limited, and there is room for a decline in the March corn contract. The short - term outlook for the March starch contract is a weak oscillation [4][6][8]. Summary by Directory Part I: Data - **Futures Market Data**: For corn futures contracts C2601, C2605, and C2509, the closing prices are 2255, 2279, and 2297 respectively, with price changes of 4, - 3, and - 1, and price change rates of 0.18%, - 0.13%, and - 0.04%. For corn starch futures contracts CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509, the closing prices are 2588, 2610, and 2623 respectively, with price changes of 3, 2, and 6, and price change rates of 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.23% [2]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, and Zhucheng Xingmao are 2160, 2220, and 2328 respectively, with price changes of 0. The basis values range from - 137 to 153. The spot prices of corn starch in different regions such as Longfeng, COFCO, and Yihai (Heilongjiang) are 2730, 2700, and 2700 respectively, with price changes of 0. The basis values range from 90 to 290 [2]. - **Spread Data**: For corn inter - delivery spreads like C01 - C05, C05 - C09, and C09 - C01, the spreads are - 24, - 18, and 42 respectively, with price changes of 7, - 2, and - 5. For corn starch inter - delivery spreads like CS01 - CS05, CS05 - CS09, and CS09 - CS01, the spreads are - 22, - 13, and 35 respectively, with price changes of 1, - 4, and 3. For cross - variety spreads like CS09 - C09, CS01 - C01, and CS05 - C05, the spreads are 326, 333, and 331 respectively, with price changes of 7, - 1, and 5 [2]. Part II: Market Analysis - **Corn**: The drought in Argentina has led to a bottom - rebound of U.S. corn, but it is still oscillating at the bottom due to global supply pressure. The import profit of foreign corn is rising. The northern port's flat - hatch price has declined, while the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply of corn in North China has decreased, and the spot price is strong. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. Wheat and corn are still being auctioned. The price of wheat in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large, which makes corn more cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The supply of corn in the Northeast is still low, and the price is strong. Farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, and the port inventory is low. The purchase price at northern ports is weak today. The price of the March contract has continued to decline, and the basis of the spot price has strengthened [4][6]. - **Corn Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is stable. The spot price of corn starch in Shandong is around 2770 yuan, and that in the Northeast is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 102.8 million tons, a decrease of 4.1 million tons from last week, a monthly decline of 6.7%, and a year - on - year decline of 8.0%. The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The by - product prices are still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. Corn prices in North China and the Northeast are stable in the short term. Due to the end of pre - Spring Festival stocking, the spot price of starch is weak, and enterprises are still in the red. The March starch contract has followed the decline of corn, but the short - term decline space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Part III: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: The March U.S. corn contract has support at 420 cents per bushel. Consider establishing long positions in the July and May corn contracts [9]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Hold off on trading for now [10]. Part IV: Corn Options - **Option Strategy**: Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy and conduct rolling operations [11]. Part V: Related Attachments - The attachments include six figures: the northern port's corn flat - hatch price, the basis of the May corn contract, the May - September spread of corn, the May - September spread of corn starch, the basis of the May corn starch contract, and the spread of the May corn starch contract [14][15][19].

黑色板块研发报告 铁矿石专题报告 2026 年 1 月 28 日 2025 年四季度全球四大矿山产销梳理 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 1 页 共 10 页 铁矿石专题报告 2026 年 1 月 28 日 黑色板块研发报告 第二部分 四季度全球铁矿石产销梳理 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2020/06 2020/10 2021/02 2021/06 2021/10 2022/02 2022/06 2022/10 2023/02 2023/06 2023/10 2024/02 2024/06 2024/10 2025/02 2025/06 2025/10 VALE产量 万吨 VALE销量 万吨 产量同比 % 销量同比 % 图 1：VALE 产销统计 图 2：VALE 分品种销量 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2020/06 2020/10 2021/02 2021/06 2021/10 2022/02 2022/06 ...

银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 28 日 0 / 49 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：压力有所减轻 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：股债跷跷板 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面走势偏强 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘走势现分歧，郑糖底部震荡 6 | | | 油脂板块：油脂有所分化 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货震荡运行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：整体变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，关注资金扰动 14 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：特朗普"暗示"弱美元，金银维持强势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：美元信任危机 贵 ...

原油日报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 原油现货市场日报 | 极端天气 | 美国大部分地区遭遇严寒天气，提振供暖需求并中断供应，推动该国天 | | --- | --- | | | 然气价格延续惊人涨势，午间飙升 40%。 | | | 周末席卷美国的大规模冬季风暴严重冲击油气生产商，以及将原材料加 | | | 工成汽油至塑料等各种产品的工业工厂 | | 贸易物流 | 印度石油公司高管周二表示，在减少俄罗斯原油进口后，这家印度最大 | | | 炼油企业已承诺从四月起的新财年增加巴西原油采购量。 | | | 一船石脑油已抵达委内瑞拉海岸，这是自华盛顿方面扣押该国领导人尼 | | | 古拉斯·马杜罗以来首批运抵的货物，也是重振这个南美国家原油生产 | | | 的关键一步。 | | | 知情人士透露，哈萨克斯坦卡拉恰甘纳克油田运营方、西方能源巨头已 | | | 在国际仲裁案中败诉，需向该国政府赔偿高达 40 亿美元。 | | | 欧佩克+代表们表示，在应对全球供应过剩和地缘政治风险浪潮之际， | | | 该组织周日开会时预计将坚持下月维持石油产量稳定的计划。 | | | 国际与当地企业高管及律师表示，委内瑞拉拟议的石 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of container shipping has reached its peak in January 2026 and entered a downward channel. After the peak of the peak - season cargo volume, major shipping companies have successively reduced spot quotes. The SCFI European line reported $1,595 per TEU as of January 23, 2026, and has been falling for three consecutive weeks. It is expected that the container shipping market will remain in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the spot price will continue to decline. However, the export tax - rebate policy issued in early January may trigger some photovoltaic enterprises to rush shipments, and attention should be paid to the extent to which the rush shipments in Q1 can delay the decline of spot prices [3][164]. - From the fundamental perspective, on the demand side, the cargo volume has reached its peak and is gradually declining; on the supply side, the weekly average capacity distribution of Shanghai - Nordic 5 ports from January to March 2026 is 289,400/250,700/279,700 TEU. The capacity in January has decreased slightly compared with last week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. The capacity in February and March has not changed much. The OA alliance has frequently replaced ships [4][164]. - From a traditional seasonal perspective, freight rates usually enter the off - season from February to March. However, after the policy of canceling export tax - rebates for some commodities on April 1st, the market expects a phased rush of shipments. Currently, the rush of shipments is less than expected, and continuous tracking is required. Geopolitically, the situation is volatile, and it is still difficult for a large - scale resumption of flights on the European line in the first half of the year. The risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated, and follow - up developments should be monitored [4][164]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - The spot price of container shipping reached its peak in January 2026. After the peak of the peak - season cargo volume, major shipping companies reduced spot quotes, and the spot price entered a rapid downward channel. As of January 23, 2026, the SCFI European line reported $1,595 per TEU, and has been falling for three consecutive weeks. It is expected that the container shipping market will remain in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the spot price will continue to decline. However, the export tax - rebate policy may trigger some photovoltaic enterprises to rush shipments, and attention should be paid to the extent to which the rush shipments in Q1 can delay the decline of spot prices [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side shows a decline after the peak of cargo volume, and the supply side has a slight change in capacity. The weekly average capacity distribution of Shanghai - Nordic 5 ports from January to March 2026 is 289,400/250,700/279,700 TEU. The capacity in January has decreased slightly compared with last week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.5% due to the PA alliance adding a suspended ship and many ship delays at the end of January. The capacity in February and March has not changed much, and the OA alliance has frequently replaced ships. - Seasonally, freight rates usually enter the off - season from February to March. After the policy of canceling export tax - rebates for some commodities on April 1st, the expected phased rush of shipments is less than expected. Geopolitically, the situation is volatile, and it is still difficult for a large - scale resumption of flights on the European line in the first half of the year, and the risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: For the 04 contract, there are many short - term disturbances, there are still differences in the rush - shipment intensity, and the risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated. It is recommended to wait and see for now. If there is a significant increase, the overall idea for the 04 contract is to go short on rallies. - Arbitrage: Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [6][165]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - After the Spring Festival, the spot price reached its peak and entered a downward channel. The 02 contract gradually shifted from trading expectations to following the spot price and maintained a volatile trend. The far - month contracts fluctuated greatly due to factors such as the rush of shipments, the volatile geopolitical situation, and the unclear expectation of the resumption of flights in the Red Sea. Specifically, at the beginning of the month, the market continued to bet on the peak of the peak - season freight rate, and the EC2602 contract soared above 1,950 points. However, as shipping companies gradually reduced spot quotes, the EC2602 contract weakened. The EC2604 contract was affected by the export tax - rebate policy, and the market continued to bet on the future rush - shipment intensity and the spot price reduction rate, maintaining a wide - range volatile trend. The far - month contracts fluctuated greatly due to different statements of major shipping companies on the resumption of flights and the repeated expectation of the resumption of flights in the Red Sea [8]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Container Shipping Market Enters the Off - Season and Spot Freight Rates Decline - The container shipping market has entered the traditional off - season, and the spot freight rate has entered a downward channel after reaching its peak. The market is still divided on the future rush - shipment intensity. The rush of shipments brought about by the export tax - rebate may delay the decline rate, but it is difficult to reverse the downward trend of the off - season freight rate. At the beginning of the year, MSK's WK4 Shanghai - Rotterdam quote reached $2,800 per HC, the highest point of this peak season. Subsequently, major shipping companies successively reduced spot quotes, and the spot price is still in a downward channel. In late January, the spot freight rate center has dropped to around $2,400 per FEU. The PA alliance has dropped to around $2,200 per FEU at the end of the month, and the OA alliance, although still at a high level, has also dropped to around $2,600 per FEU. In addition, major shipping companies have recently released February spot freight rates, which continue to decline. Considering that the container shipping market will enter the traditional off - season, it is expected that the spot freight rate will continue to decline. Currently, the rush - shipment intensity is less than expected, so attention should be paid to the rush - shipment intensity of the export tax - rebate policy in Q1 and whether it can delay the decline of future spot freight rates [17]. - In terms of the index, the average value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) in January was 1,559.79 points (as of the week of January 23), a month - on - month increase of 2.06% compared with the average value in December last year and a year - on - year decrease of 30.46% compared with the average value in January last year. In the week of January 23, the SCFI container comprehensive freight index reported 1,457.86 points, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 34.63%. Among them, the freight rate of Shanghai - US West containers was $2,084 per FEU, a month - on - month decrease of 5.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 55.49%; the freight rate of Shanghai - Europe containers reported $1,595 per TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 34.63% [18]. 3.3.2 Container New - Ship Delivery Volume Increases Significantly at the End of the Year - In December, the global container new - ship delivery volume increased significantly compared with the previous month, reaching 179,300 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 32.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%. In terms of new orders, in December 2025, the number of new container orders was 45 ships, with a total of 291,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 41% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.8%. From the current container order structure, ships with a capacity of over 12,000 TEU still dominate, and it is expected that a peak of ship deliveries will occur from 2027 [49]. - As of January 2026, the global container capacity has increased to 33.033 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. Among them, the capacity of container ships with a capacity of over 12,000 TEU is 13.139 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%; the capacity of container ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU is 4.866 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 6.05%; the capacity of container ships with a capacity of over 8,000 TEU is 19.8107 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. According to the container delivery forecast schedule (excluding ship dismantling), from 2026, there are about 1.2258 million TEU of 8,000 - TEU + container ships to be delivered in 1 - 12 months, of which the delivery volume of ships with a capacity of over 12,000 TEU is about 975,700 TEU, still dominating [50]. 3.3.3 China's Export Data in December Ended Strongly and the Export Structure Continued to Differentiate - In December, China's exports showed resilience under multiple challenges, and the structural feature of stronger external demand than domestic demand continued. The overall growth exceeded expectations. According to customs data, China's exports in December were $357.8 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%. However, the market performance was significantly differentiated. Exports to traditional markets such as the United States continued to be under pressure, while exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN and Africa and some surrounding regions grew strongly. In terms of regions, affected by high - tariff policies, high bases, and the fading of the "rush - export" effect, exports to the United States continued to decline significantly. In December, the decline in exports to the United States widened to 30%. Exports to ASEAN and the EU were still the main supports. In December, exports to the EU increased by 11.6% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing down compared with the previous month, and the growth rate to ASEAN rebounded to 11.2%, which was a key stabilizer for China's export growth [128]. - In terms of export categories, the export structure showed a significant trend of upgrading towards new and high - tech products. High - tech, electromechanical, and green products were the core growth drivers, while traditional labor - intensive products continued to drag down. Specifically, in December, the growth rate of high - tech products was 16.6%, the export growth rate of electromechanical products was 12.1%, and the export growth rate of labor - intensive products decreased by 8.5% year - on - year. Among them, categories such as clothing, furniture, and toys generally had negative growth and weakened competitiveness [128]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The spot price of container shipping has reached its peak in January 2026 and entered a downward channel. After the peak of the peak - season cargo volume, major shipping companies have successively reduced spot quotes. It is expected that the container shipping market will remain in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the spot price will continue to decline. However, the export tax - rebate policy may trigger some photovoltaic enterprises to rush shipments, and attention should be paid to the extent to which the rush shipments in Q1 can delay the decline of spot prices. - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side shows a decline after the peak of cargo volume, and the supply side has a slight change in capacity. The weekly average capacity distribution of Shanghai - Nordic 5 ports from January to March 2026 is 289,400/250,700/279,700 TEU. The capacity in January has decreased slightly compared with last week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. The capacity in February and March has not changed much. - Seasonally, freight rates usually enter the off - season from February to March. After the policy of canceling export tax - rebates for some commodities on April 1st, the expected phased rush of shipments is less than expected. Geopolitically, the situation is volatile, and it is still difficult for a large - scale resumption of flights on the European line in the first half of the year, and the risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated [164]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see for the 04 contract. Arbitrage: Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [165].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Prices - DCE01 closed at 757.0, up 2.0 from yesterday; DCE05 closed at 788.0, up 3.5; DCE09 closed at 769.5, up 3.5 [2] - I01 - I05 spread was -31.0, down 1.5; I05 - I09 spread was 18.5, unchanged; I09 - I01 spread was 12.5, up 1.5 [2] Spot Prices - Most spot iron ore prices decreased, e.g., PB powder (60.8%) dropped from 800 to 789, Newman powder from 800 to 789, etc. [2] - The optimal delivery product was card powder, with 01 - contract basis of 58, 05 - contract basis of 29, and 09 - contract basis of 47 [2] Spot Price Spreads - The spreads between some spot varieties decreased, like card powder - PB powder spread dropped from 83 to 82, Newman powder - Jimbuck powder spread from 45 to 43 [2] Import Profits - Import profits of some varieties changed, e.g., card powder's import profit decreased from -8 to -12, Newman powder's from 54 to 51 [2] Indexes - The Platts 62% iron ore price decreased from 107.6 to 106.3, 65% price from 120.2 to 118.9, and 58% price from 94.1 to 93.2 [2] - The spreads between SGX主力 and DCE contracts increased, e.g., SGX主力 - DCE01 spread increased from 7.5 to 8.2 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term oils and fats are fluctuating and rising, with increased volatility and many uncertainties, and the contradictions are not prominent. It is recommended that those without positions temporarily wait and not chase the high, and not rush to short. For rapeseed oil, a long - short spread strategy for the 3 - 5 contracts is recommended, and for options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2605 contract are 8258, 9238, and 9326 respectively. The basis of each variety in different regions is given, with some showing no change in the basis. For example, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 540 with no change [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 86, 74, and 61 respectively, with changes of - 2, 32, and - 29 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 05 contract, the Y - P spread is - 980 with a change of - 114, the OI - Y spread is 1068 with a change of - 51, and the OI - P spread is 88 with a change of - 165. The oil - meal ratio is 2.99 with a change of 0.01 [2] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 130, and that of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 976 [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 4th week of 2026, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 95.6, 74.2, and 25.2 million tons respectively, showing different trends compared with last week and the same period last year [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 746,745 tons, a 9.41% decrease compared with the same period last month [4] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: The market has a strong bullish sentiment. The palm oil futures price fluctuated and closed up, rising more than 1%. As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil is 74.23 million tons, a 0.51% decrease from last week. The import profit is inverted, and the basis is stable and weak. It is expected that the de - stocking speed will be slow in the later stage [4] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures price fluctuated and closed slightly up. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1021 million tons, and the operating rate was 57.83%. As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 95.6 million tons, a 0.76% decrease from last week. The basis is stable. The inventory is expected to slightly decrease, but the supply is sufficient [5][7] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated and closed slightly down. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of January 23, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 25.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons. The import profit is inverted, and the basis is supported. It is expected that the rapeseed oil will continue to de - stock, and the decline space of the near - month contract is limited [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term oils and fats are fluctuating and rising, with many uncertainties. Those without positions are recommended to wait and not chase the high, and not rush to short [9] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: A long - short spread strategy for the 3 - 5 contracts of rapeseed oil is recommended [10] - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of different oils and fats, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current spot freight rates in the container shipping market are in a downward trend during the off - season, and the rush of shipments due to export tax rebates is less than expected, making it difficult to reverse the decline. The EC2604 contract has a discount, and the subsequent spot situation should be monitored. The geopolitical situation is complex, and it is still difficult for large - scale resumption of shipping on the European route in the first half of the year. The risk of the Iranian situation remains, so short - term unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage should be held [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Route) - **Futures Market** - Different futures contracts of the container freight index (European route) have different closing prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and open interest changes. For example, the EC2602 contract closed at 1,717.5 points, down 9.2 points or - 0.53%, with a trading volume of 984.0 lots (up 74.16%) and an open interest of 3,495.0 lots (down 17.28%) [4]. - The month - spread structure also shows different price differences and their changes. For example, the price difference between EC02 - EC04 is 524, down 2.9 [4]. - **Container Freight Rates** - Various container freight rates show different degrees of decline on a weekly basis. For example, the SCFIS European route index is 1859.31 points, down 4.86% week - on - week and 24.61% year - on - year. The SCFI comprehensive index is 1457.86 points, down 7.39% week - on - week and 36.36% year - on - year [4]. - **Fuel Costs** - The prices of WTI crude oil near - month and Brent crude oil near - month also show declines. The WTI crude oil near - month price is 60.64 dollars/barrel, down 0.57% week - on - week and 17.89% year - on - year. The Brent crude oil near - month price is 64.9 dollars/barrel, down 0.83% week - on - week and 16.2% year - on - year [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis** - The spot freight rates are in the off - season decline, and the rush of shipments due to the export tax rebate policy is less than expected. The 1/23 SCFI European route quote is 1595 dollars/TEU, down 4.83% week - on - week. The latest SCFIS European route quote on Monday after the market is 1859.31 points, down 4.9% week - on - week, slightly lower than market expectations [6]. - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side is seeing a decline in cargo volume after reaching a peak, and the supply side shows a slight decrease in January's shipping capacity in Shanghai - Northern Europe 5 ports this week, with little change in February and March. The geopolitical situation is complex, and it is difficult for large - scale resumption of shipping on the European route in the first half of the year [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Due to many short - term disturbances in the 04 contract, differences in the rush of shipments, and the unresolved risk of the Iranian situation, unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The US President Trump said that the Iranian situation is "changing rapidly", and he sent a "huge fleet" to the region, but he believes that Iran wants to reach an agreement [12]. - The US will increase tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's non - approval of the trade agreement [12]. - India plans to significantly reduce the import tariff on EU cars from a maximum of 110% to 40%, and the future tariff may be further reduced to 10%, which may lead to the signing of a free trade agreement with the EU [12]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the SCFIS European route index and SCFIS US - West route index, SCFI comprehensive index, container freight rates of Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, Shanghai - Europe, and the basis of EC02 and EC04 contracts [14][15][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - On January 27, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5604, down 0.43% with a decrease of 10,700 in positions; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5818, down 0.17% with an increase of 11,862 in positions [6]. - The valuation levels of both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are low. They can be considered as long - side allocation when the price is low. For trading strategies, it is recommended to hold long positions when the price is low, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market** - SF main contract: closed at 5604, daily change - 24, weekly change + 52, trading volume 112,403 (down 35,305 from the previous day), open interest 196,604 (down 10,700 from the previous day) [3]. - SM main contract: closed at 5818, daily change - 10, weekly change + 20, trading volume 103,945 (down 28,433 from the previous day), open interest 371,448 (up 11,862 from the previous day) [3]. - **Spot Market** - Silicon - iron: Spot prices in some regions decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. For example, 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton daily and up 30 yuan/ton weekly [3]. - Manganese - silicon: Spot prices were generally stable. For example, the price of silicon - manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change [3]. - **Basis/Spread** - Silicon - iron: The basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was - 254, with a daily change of - 26 and a weekly change of - 22 [3]. - Manganese - silicon: The basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was - 138, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of - 20 [3]. - SF - SM spread: - 214, daily change - 14, weekly change + 32 [3]. - **Raw Materials** - Manganese ore (Tianjin): The price of Australian lump ore decreased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree to 41.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of South African semi - carbonate ore remained unchanged at 36.2 yuan/ton - degree [3]. - Blue charcoal small materials: The price in Shaanxi was 755 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 15 yuan/ton [3]. Market Judgement - **Silicon - iron** - Supply: The output of sample enterprises continued to decline at a low level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in the future due to the technical transformation expected from the differential electricity price in Shaanxi [6]. - Demand: The steel output is generally stable. Based on blast furnace maintenance data, the future hot - metal output is expected to increase slightly, which will support the demand for raw materials [6]. - Cost: The electricity price in the main production areas is stable with a weak trend, but there is still an expectation of an increase in some areas [6]. - **Manganese - silicon** - Supply: The output of sample enterprises decreased slightly, but some new production capacities are still being put into operation, and the supply is generally stable [7]. - Demand: Similar to silicon - iron, the future hot - metal output is expected to increase slightly, providing short - term support for raw material demand [7]. - Cost: The port inventory of manganese ore has increased slightly but remains at a low level. The port spot is generally firm, and the overseas mine quotes continue to rise [7]. Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts showing the trends of ferroalloy main contracts, spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [10][14][16][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the international soybean market is relatively loose, and there is still price pressure. The price of Brazilian soybeans is expected to face pressure in the medium term. [4][6] - The domestic spot supply is tightening, and the market demand remains good. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to be volatile, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. [7][8] - It is recommended to adopt a short - term bearish strategy for single - side trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options. [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Futures prices: The soybean meal futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 closed at 2908, 2766, and 2857 respectively, with changes of - 8, - 3, and - 11. The rapeseed meal futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 closed at 2225, 2271, and 2293 respectively, with changes of - 8, 2, and - 9. [3] - Spot basis: The spot basis of soybean meal in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao is 400, 310, 300, and 310 respectively. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi is 259, 159, and 149 respectively. [3] - Spreads: The 15 - spread of soybean meal is 142, down 5 from yesterday; the 59 - spread is - 91, up 8; the 91 - spread is - 51, down 3. The 15 - spread of rapeseed meal is - 46, down 10; the 59 - spread is - 22, up 11; the 91 - spread is 68, down 1. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 536, up 27 from yesterday. [3] 2. Fundamentals - International market: The U.S. soybean carry - over inventory is raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market estimate. The overall supply - demand of U.S. soybeans is relatively loose. Brazilian new - crop soybeans are expected to be in a good harvest, and the export volume is expected to increase. The old - crop soybeans in Brazil and Argentina have good export and crushing performance. [4] - Domestic market: The domestic soybean supply is tightening, the oil mill operating rate is increasing but the quantity is decreasing, the提货量 is slightly decreasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, the oil mill operation is almost stagnant, the rapeseed supply is low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is at a high level. [7] 3. Logical Analysis - U.S. soybeans: The inventory pressure is large, but the demand improvement may slow down the downward speed. [8] - Brazilian soybeans: The weather is good, the yield is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. [8] - Argentine soybeans: Affected by dry weather, the price is relatively strong, but the driving effect may be limited. [8] - Domestic soybeans: The future soybean arrivals will decrease, the supply is uncertain, the spot price has support, but the upward space is limited. [8] - Rapeseed meal: The import price is high, and the pressure may increase after the supply of Canadian rapeseed increases. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. [8] 4. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Adopt a bearish strategy. [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see. [9] - Options: Sell wide straddles. [9] 5. Soybean Pressing Profits - The pressing profits from Brazilian soybeans vary by shipping date. For example, the March shipment has a盘面压榨利润 of 143.23 and a现货压榨利润 of 219.73, with a profit increase of 35.37 compared to yesterday. [10]