国内产销进度偏快 郑糖走势强于原糖 研究员：黄莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 9 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 国际方面，新榨季巴西制糖比、产糖量均较去年同期有所增加，拖累盘面。考虑到巴西库存偏低，短期贸易流偏紧支撑国 际糖价。预计原糖整体维持震荡运行，后续还需关注巴西生产进度。 国内方面，产销速度偏快、去库前置。考虑到糖浆进口政策进一步收紧，产需缺口如何补足成为市场焦点，预计郑糖价格 将跟随补充缺口的糖源成本波动。此前广西干旱引起的市场担忧情绪发酵在近期降雨后有所降温，后续还需关注新榨季糖料生 长情况。 【逻辑分析】 原糖受巴西丰产预期影响走势偏弱，近期制糖比处于同期偏高水平，不过考虑到下方买盘支撑，预计原糖震荡运行。反观国 内，产销比同比偏高以及库存低位带动郑糖走势强于原糖，预计郑糖短期维持震荡运行。关注广西主产区天气情况。 【交易策略】 3. 期权：虚值比例价差期权。 (以上观点仅供参考，不作为入市依据) GALAXY FUTURES 2 1. ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：上周五受贸易进展不确定性和地缘冲突的影响伦敦金下破 3280 美元后 | | 研究员：王伟 | 持续反弹，最终收涨 0.63%，报 3326.46 美元/盎司。但周末中美经贸高层宣布会谈取得 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 了实质性进展，伦敦金今晨跳空低开；现货白银周五收涨 0.84%，报 32.72 美元/盎司。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 0.33%，报 790.74 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.88%， | | 报 | 8221 元/千克。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数回吐前日部分涨幅，收跌 0.3%，报 100.339。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market supply and demand is generally loose, and the new US soybean crop is expected to face pressure. The South American market is in the peak supply period, and prices are expected to remain under pressure. In the domestic market, the arrival volume of soybeans is expected to increase, and the supply situation is expected to improve, but there is still some pressure [2][3]. - The raw sugar is affected by the expected high - yield in Brazil and shows a weak trend, but is expected to fluctuate due to the support of buying orders below. The domestic sugar market has a higher sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, driving Zhengzhou sugar to be stronger than raw sugar. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][11]. - The macro - factors will still have a significant impact on the oil market. In the short term, the Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory significantly in April and continue to increase production and accumulate inventory later. The domestic soybean oil inventory will start to accumulate, and the basis may weaken. The domestic rapeseed oil supply exceeds demand, and the decline space may be limited [17][20]. - The US corn is sowing faster and is in a bottom - shock state. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot price is still strong, but the increase space may be limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [28][29]. - The recent enthusiasm for hog slaughter is average, but the supply pressure is still reflected due to the increase in slaughter weight. The futures market is expected to face pressure [35]. - The peanut spot trading volume is still small, and the downstream consumption is weak. However, the large - scale oil mills' increased purchases boost the market, and the new - season peanuts in October still have room for rebound [39][43]. - The overall supply of eggs is expected to be sufficient, and the egg price has shown signs of stability recently. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions and wait and see [49][51]. - The apple cold - storage inventory is at a low level this year, and the supply is likely to be tight before the new fruit is on the market. The demand is okay, and the spot price is strong. The apple price is expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger [54][58]. - The short - term supply of cotton is sufficient, and the demand is average. The market has entered the off - season. Considering the uncertainty of global trade policies, especially the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, it is recommended to wait and see [63][66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**：CBOT大豆指数持平于1043.75美分/蒲式耳，CBOT豆粕指数下跌0.67%至297.4美元/短吨[2] - **相关资讯**：预计美国2025/26年度大豆期末库存为3.62亿蒲式耳，产量料为43.38亿蒲式耳；中国4月大豆进口608.1万吨；国际豆粕出口主要供应国出口量转降；截至5月9日当周，油厂大豆实际压榨量184.6万吨，开机率51.89%，大豆库存较上周增加3.3%，同比增加13.28%，豆粕库存较上周增加9.76%，同比减少84.36%[2] - **逻辑分析**：国际市场供需偏宽松，美豆新作有压力，南美处于供应高峰期价格承压；国内大豆到港量增加，油厂开机率恢复，供应好转但仍有压力[3] - **交易策略**：单边偏空思路为主；套利观望；期权卖出宽跨式策略[6] Sugar - **外盘情况**：昨日ICE美糖主力合约上涨0.32（1.83%）至17.82美分/磅[7] - **重要资讯**：截至2025年4月底，本制糖期全国产糖1110.72万吨，同比增加11.59%，销售食糖724.46万吨，同比增加26.07%，销糖率65.22%；印度2025 - 26年度糖产量预计达3500万吨，增长26%；现货方面，部分制糖集团和加工厂报价有调整，后半段成交尚可[8][9][10] - **逻辑分析**：原糖受巴西丰产预期影响偏弱，预计震荡运行；国内产销比高、库存低带动郑糖强于原糖，预计短期震荡运行，关注广西天气[11] - **交易策略**：单边震荡运行，波段操作；套利观望；期权卖出宽跨式期权[12][13][14] Oilseeds and Oils - **外盘情况**：隔夜CBOT美豆油主力价格变动0.25%至48.64美分/磅；BMD马棕油主力价格变动0.37%至3815林吉特/吨，周一马盘休市[16] - **相关资讯**：巴西2024/25年度大豆作物商业化销售达预期产量的57%，较去年同期和历史均值延迟；阿根廷2024/25年度大豆收割率为45%，落后去年同期；加拿大油菜籽出口量增加，库存为120.1万吨；5月9日，油脂总成交环比增加63%[17][18][19] - **逻辑分析**：中美谈判达成共识，宏观因素影响盘面；4月马棕累库明显，后期继续增产累库，中国和印度买船积极性增加；巴西大豆到港，国内油厂压榨量增加，豆油库存累库，基差或走弱；国内菜油供大于求，盘面受国际关系影响反复，下跌空间有限[20] - **交易策略**：单边预计短期油脂震荡运行，豆油和菜油有利多支撑，棕榈油基本面转弱，可轻仓试多博反弹或反弹后逢高空；套利YP 09可部分止盈部分持有；期权观望[21][22][23] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**：CBOT玉米期货外盘反弹，主力合约反弹0.2%，收盘为450.5美分/蒲[27] - **重要资讯**：截至5月9日当周，CBOT玉米期货延续下跌，美国玉米播种顺利，巴西二季玉米丰产预期压制价格；美国玉米主产州未来6 - 10日部分地区气温低于正常、降水高于正常；全国饲料企业平均库存增加；5月12日北港收购价稳定，华北产区周末回调[28] - **逻辑分析**：美玉米播种加快，底部震荡；国内玉米供应少，东北玉米上涨，港口价格稳定，抛储和糙米拍卖传闻影响下，华北玉米现货回落，小麦价格上涨，玉米现货仍偏强，中长期上涨空间有限，07玉米高位震荡，期现价差缩小[29] - **持仓建议**：单边外盘07玉米450美分/蒲附近有支撑，07玉米等待回调，观望为主；套利玉米和淀粉套利震荡操作，逢低做扩；期权有现货的可考虑逢高累沽策略[32][33] Hogs - **相关资讯**：生猪价格整体震荡，部分地区持平或有小幅度涨跌；仔猪价格下跌，母猪价格持平；农产品批发价格指数和猪肉平均价格下降[35] - **逻辑分析**：近期生猪出栏积极性一般，但出栏体重增加使供应压力体现，大小猪价差回落或使出栏增加，关注现货跌价情况，期货预计有压力[35] - **交易策略**：单边偏空思路为主；套利LH79反套；期权卖出宽跨式策略[38] Peanuts - **重要资讯**：各地花生通货米有报价区间；部分油厂到货及成交价格情况；花生油报价偏强，有议价空间；花生粕走货少；国内花生油样本企业花生库存减少，花生油库存增加[39][40] - **逻辑分析**：花生现货成交少，新季花生价格稳定，进口花生价格稳定、进口量大幅减少，花生油厂收购价格稳定，下游消费弱；豆粕现货回落，花生粕价格稳定，油厂有利润，大型油厂收购量增加；市场预计新季种植面积增加，河南等地干旱易炒作天气，10花生有反弹空间[41][43] - **持仓建议**：单边10花生轻仓逢低短多；套利观望；期权观望[44][45][46] Eggs - **重要资讯**：主产区和主销区均价下跌后全国主流价格多数上涨；4月份全国在产蛋鸡存栏量增加，样本企业蛋鸡苗月度出苗量增加；5月9日一周全国主产区蛋鸡淘鸡出栏量增加；5月1日当周全国代表销区鸡蛋销量减少，生产和流通环节库存增加；鸡蛋盈利减少，蛋鸡养殖预期利润上涨[48][49][50] - **交易逻辑**：鸡蛋整体供应充足，在产存栏量高，蛋价跌至当前位置后有稳定迹象，建议前期空单获利平仓观望[51] - **交易策略**：单边空单可考虑获利平仓；套利多08空09；期权观望[52] Apples - **重要资讯**：截至2025年4月16日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量减少，去库同比加快；2024 - 2025年苹果进出口量有变化；冷库苹果剩余量低于往年同期，山东产地冷库惜售，出货速度后期放缓，陕西产区价格稳定，出货情况尚可但可供交易货量不大；山东和陕西产区现货价格有变动，栖霞存储商利润增加[54][55][56] - **交易逻辑**：今年苹果冷库库存处于低位，新果上市前供应大概率偏紧，需求端走货尚可，现货价格偏强，4月份西部产区天气影响部分产区坐果，预计苹果走势震荡略偏强[58] - **交易策略**：单边AP10短期逢低建仓多单；套利建议先观望；期权建议先观望[59][60][61] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**：昨日ICE美棉主力合约下跌0.01（0.01%）至66.72美分/磅[62] - **重要资讯**：中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，将建立磋商机制；美棉主产区和德州干旱指数下行；CFTC发布ICE棉花期货合约ON - CALL数据，卖方未点价合约有变动[63][64][65] - **交易逻辑**：基本面棉花短期供应充足，需求一般，进入需求淡季，纱线和坯布库存有累库迹象；全球经济和贸易政策不确定性大，关注中美关税谈判后续动态，建议观望[66] - **交易策略**：单边预计未来美棉走势大概率震荡略偏强，郑棉近期宏观不确定性大，建议观望；套利空09多01；期权观望[67][68][69]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 乾县—旬邑—白水—洛川—富县—黄陵—庆阳 第三部分 苹果产区情况介绍 陕西作为苹果的主产区，产量占到全国产量四分之一左右，而陕西主要的苹果 产区包括咸阳、铜川、渭南、延安以及宝鸡等地。根据卓创数据显示，2024 年陕西 苹果种植面积为 974 万亩，根据网上各个县市数据，咸阳苹果种植面积为 250 万亩 左右，铜川种植面积为 56 万亩，渭南种植面积为 130 万亩，延安的种植面积为 333 万亩。其中在本次调研计划中的几个县中，咸阳的乾县苹果种植面积为 37 万亩， 礼泉县 42 万亩，旬邑县 31 万亩；渭南的白水县 30 万亩；延安的洛川县 53 万亩， 富县 37 万亩，黄陵县 26 万亩，但是洛川和白水在陕西苹果具有较为重要的意义。 本次调研县市占到陕西总面积的四分之一左右，占全国总产量相对较小。 由于苹果树个体差异性很大，产区每个县的情况都不相同，同一县不同地方差 异也非常大，即使是同一块地相邻的两棵同种类的苹果树坐果情况都可能存在巨大 的差异，因此我们本次调研仅仅代表被调研地块的情况，而且果农的认知与预期也 都有一定的偏差，部分调研果农表现减产幅度较大的也仅仅代表 ...

纸浆周报 2025年05月第2周 大宗商品研究所 潘盛杰 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 木片下跌成纸累库，关注短期超跌机会 ◼ 目前纸浆的基本面不太乐观。从上游来看，木片成本出现下滑，像CME木材期货结算价格下跌，俄罗斯木制品商业信心指数下降，针叶木片进口量增加，木片 木粒进口价值指数也下滑。下游方面，成纸库存不断积压，3月国内造纸业产成品存货环比增加，达到764.5亿元，同比上升4.5%，并且已经连续12个月呈逐月 增加态势；同时，3月美国纸品批发商库销比环比上升至1.06%，同比增加5.8%，连续10个月呈逐月上升态势，这些情况都对浆价产生了下行压力。 ◼ 不过，也可以从其他角度来分析浆价短期内是否会触底。 ◼ 阔叶浆仍有望相对企稳，支撑纸浆整体估值回升。 GALAXYFUTURES 1 ➢ 若不考虑基本面因素，只看价格周期规律，从1990年至今的7年周期里的第1年（1990年、1997年、2004年、2011年、2018年和2025年），浆价都会从同比 上涨转为同比下跌，且跌幅一般不会超过-23%。现在浆价同比下跌-19%，从统计角度来看，已经接近低估值水平，可能存在超跌的情况。 ➢ 从国际油价角 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, demand has a marginal weakening expectation, but the inventory is at a low level. The center of aluminum price operation has a downward risk, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. For alumina, the progress of new production capacity is the key focus, and the short - term price rebound space is limited, with an expected weak and volatile operation [2][68]. Summary by Related Catalogs Electrolytic Aluminum Macro - Sino - US talks have started, but the probability of reaching an agreement in the short term is limited. The US has multiple rounds of tariff talks with other countries. The US and the UK have reached a tariff agreement, canceling the 232 aluminum tariff on the UK. The US economic data is strong, and the Fed's stance is still hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of the number of Fed rate cuts to three times this year. China has introduced multiple economic stimulus policies [2]. Industry Supply - The supply side has little short - term change, with a slow increase in production. Future capacity changes will mainly involve small - scale restarts and replacement of production capacity [2]. Industry Demand - In April, the apparent consumption of aluminum increased by more than 7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was more than 5% year - on - year. However, the high - growth demand did not boost market confidence. The marginal weakening of demand is highly certain. The photovoltaic module production schedule in May is expected to be 55GW, a 10% month - on - month decrease. The home appliance production schedule increases year - on - year but weakens month - on - month. The orders of photovoltaic aluminum profile enterprises have declined. Last week, the operating rates of leading aluminum profile and aluminum plate - strip - foil enterprises decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of aluminum cables increased month - on - month [2]. Inventory - The net import of aluminum ingots is expected to remain at a high level of over 160,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the bonded area continues to increase. The social inventory of aluminum ingots briefly increased after the May Day holiday, which is in line with the seasonality. Based on historical data, the inventory can decrease by 120,000 - 180,000 tons in the whole month. With the social inventory of aluminum ingots at over 620,000 tons at the beginning of May, it is expected to drop to a low level of over 500,000 tons next week, which is expected to support the monthly spread [2]. Trading Logic - The impact of tariffs on global aluminum demand remains to be reflected at the micro - level. The subsequent low - level social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to support the monthly spread. However, with the marginal weakening of demand in sectors such as photovoltaics and home appliances, pay attention to the consumption inflection point from May to June. The short - term strong supply - demand performance in China cannot reverse the annual surplus pressure. The expectation of marginal demand decline in the middle of the year remains unchanged. It is expected that the aluminum price will mainly fluctuate widely. To stably break through the 20,000 - yuan mark, the global annual aluminum consumption expectation needs to improve. To break below the 19,000 - yuan mark, the weakening expectation on the demand side needs to be realized. Since the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is still at a relatively high level of about 3,500 yuan in recent years, pay attention to the possibility of the off - season expectation being realized ahead of schedule from June to July, leading to a decline in aluminum price and a contraction in aluminum profit [2]. Trading Strategy - The actual impact of tariffs on the global economy remains to be seen. With the expectation of marginal demand weakening but a relatively low absolute inventory level, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and derivatives trading [2]. Alumina Raw Material End - After the May Day holiday, the bauxite market had a significant price adjustment. Large mining enterprises revised the long - term agreement prices for the second quarter. The price of Guinea's mainstream 45/3 ore was lowered to $75 per dry ton (CIF). The bulk market also weakened, with the 45/3 ore quotation falling below $75 per dry ton, and some low - quality ore quotes reaching $72 per dry ton. However, buyers remained cautious. As mining enterprises and traders accelerate shipments, the alumina price recovers, and the rainy season in Guinea approaches, the procurement activities of downstream alumina enterprises are expected to gradually pick up [68]. Supply End - After the May Day holiday, the number of domestic alumina enterprises undergoing phased maintenance and production reduction continued to increase, covering regions such as Guizhou, Guangxi, and Shanxi. The total operating capacity decreased by 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and the operating rate was 78.2% [68]. Trading Logic - A news item last week triggered market concerns about alumina supply and pushed up the price, but the actual impact and real situation need continuous tracking. In May, both maintenance and restart of alumina production capacity occurred, and new production capacity will gradually produce finished products. Pay attention to the impact of the progress of new production capacity on the supply - demand balance shifting from short - term tight balance to surplus. The price of imported bauxite is on a downward trend, and the alumina warehouse receipts are still at a high level. If the maintenance capacity recovers, there is a possibility of positive restart. It is expected that the rebound range of the alumina price will be relatively limited, and it will maintain a weak and volatile operation [68]. Trading Strategy - In the short term, the alumina price is expected to operate weakly and volatilely. If the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged after the price rebound, consider short - selling. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and option trading [68].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. The egg price has shown signs of stabilization after falling to the current level. It is recommended to close out previous short positions for profit and wait and see. [16] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Spot Analysis - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas this week was 2.94 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.57 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.16 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.51 yuan per catty from last Friday. The price in the main producing areas declined weakly this week. [5] - The price of old hens first rose and then fell this week. During the May Day holiday, household consumption increased in the first half of the week, and the live poultry market had a fast turnover. The price of old hens continued to rise supported by the demand side. Later, the egg price dropped rapidly, the slaughter sentiment of the breeding end increased, and the demand weakened after the holiday, so the price of old hens showed a downward trend. [5] 2. Supply Analysis - During the May Day holiday, the terminal demand was weak, the sales in the selling areas were average, and most of them actively processed inventory. The shipping volume in the producing areas was stable and weak. After the holiday, the demand declined, and combined with the downward egg price, all links were cautious in purchasing, and the shipping volume in the producing areas decreased. By the end of the week, as the egg price fell to a low level, the turnover in some areas improved. Overall, the shipping volume in the producing areas decreased compared with the previous week. [9] - According to Zhuochuang data, the number of egg - laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas across the country in the week of May 9 was 17.25 million, an increase of 4% compared with the previous week. The average slaughter age of culled hens in the week of May 8 was 536 days, the same as the previous week. [9] - According to Zhuochuang data, the inventory of laying hens in the country in April was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.011 billion compared with the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, higher than the previous expectation. The monthly output of egg chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in April (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 46.985 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. [9] - Without considering delayed slaughter and concentrated slaughter, based on the previous replenishment data, it can be inferred that the approximate inventory of laying hens in May, June, July, and August 2025 will be 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively. [9] 3. Cost Analysis - The feed cost changed little during the week. As of May 8, the corn price rose to around 2360 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price fell to 3300 yuan per ton, and the current comprehensive feed cost was about 2642 yuan per ton, which was about 2.9 yuan per catty when converted to the feed cost of single - catty eggs. [12] - Overall, the price of corn increased slightly and the price of soybean meal decreased significantly during the week, so the breeding cost of laying hens decreased. This week, the egg price declined weakly. After the May Day holiday, the market replenishment was less than expected, and the demand side continued to be weak. Traders accumulated inventory actively before and mostly sold at low prices, so the egg price was under pressure to fall. Since the weekly average price of eggs decreased compared with the previous week, the breeding profit of laying hens continued to shrink. [12] - According to Zhuochuang data, as of May 1, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.11 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.29 yuan per catty compared with the previous week. On May 2, the expected profit of laying hen breeding was 20.07 yuan per chicken, an increase of 0.1 yuan per catty compared with the previous week. [12] 4. Demand Analysis - During the May Day holiday, tourism and outdoor consumption increased, and the market inventory was digested well. In the middle of the week, as the replenishment of each link ended, the market demand weakened and the sales volume decreased. At the end of the week, as the egg price continued to hit a new low, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase decreased. Overall, the demand was relatively weak during the week, and the sales volume in the selling areas decreased compared with the previous week. [15] - According to Zhuochuang data, as of the week of May 1, the sales volume of eggs in the representative selling areas across the country was 8816 tons, a decrease of 2% compared with the previous week. [15] - The inventory in the national egg market continued to accumulate during the week. The main reason was that the demand weakened after the May Day holiday, the sales in the selling areas slowed down, the inventory accumulated and the price declined, which forced the breeding and trading ends to slow down the sales and increase the inventory. At present, the egg price is running at a short - term low level, and the inventory may decrease driven by the Dragon Boat Festival stocking. [15] - According to Zhuochuang data, as of the week of May 1, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.19 days, an increase of 0.03 days compared with the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.33 days, an increase of 0.05 days compared with the previous week. [15] - This week, the vegetable price index was still at a low level. On May 8, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 87.76. The pork price index also decreased. As of May 8, the average national wholesale price of pork was about 15.94 yuan per kilogram, a slight decrease compared with the previous week. [15] 5. Trading Strategy - Trading logic: It is expected that the overall supply of eggs will still be sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, it shows signs of stabilization recently. It is recommended to close out previous short positions for profit and wait and see. [16] - Unilateral: Wait and see. [16] - Arbitrage: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract. [16] - Options: Wait and see. [16] 6. Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data on the inventory of laying hens, brooding chicken replenishment, weekly culled chicken volume, culled chicken age, average price of egg chicks in the main producing areas, and various price spreads and basis, but no specific analysis is made in this part of the text. [18][21][23][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of peanuts is average, the price of general peanuts is weak, the purchase price of oil mills is stable, the opening rate of oil mills is rising, the spot price of peanut meal follows the decline of soybean meal, the price of peanut oil is rising, and the oil mills are profitable. Although the market expects an increase in the planting area of new crops, the recent drought in Henan and other places provides strong support for the peanut futures market. It is recommended to go long on the October peanut contract around 8000, go long on the October - January spread at low levels, and try the option strategy of selling pk510 - p - 7800 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Logic**: The trading volume of peanuts is average, the price of general peanuts is weak, the purchase price of oil mills is stable, the opening rate of oil mills is rising, the spot price of peanut meal follows the decline of soybean meal, the price of peanut oil is rising, and the oil mills are profitable. The downstream consumption is still weak, the peanut oil inventory of oil mills has slightly increased, and the peanut inventory remains at a high level. The October peanut contract has rebounded, and the October - January spread has increased. The market expects an increase in the planting area of new crops, but there is a drought in Henan recently [4]. - **Strategies**: - Go long on the October peanut contract around 8000 [4]. - The current lowest warehouse receipt is around 8000 yuan/ton, and the futures price is slightly higher than the spot price [4]. - Go long on the October - January spread at low levels [4]. - Try the option strategy of selling pk510 - p - 7800 [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Peanut Prices**: - Domestic peanuts: The prices in Northeast and Henan are weak. The price of large peanuts in Junan, Shandong is 3.95 yuan/jin, stable compared to last week; the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan is 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning and Fuyu, Jilin is 4.1 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from last week. The trading of general peanuts is average, and the price is weak [8]. - Oil mill油料米: The purchase price of oil mills is stable, generally between 7350 - 7700 yuan/ton [8]. - Imported peanuts: The price of Sudanese peanuts is 7950 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [8]. - **Domestic Demand**: - Oil mill opening rate: The purchase volume of oil mills has decreased, but the opening rate has increased. As of May 8, the opening rate of peanut oil mills this week is 15.26%, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% [11]. - Oil mill inventory: The arrival volume of oil mills this week is 19,600 tons, a decrease. The peanut inventory of oil mills is 153,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from last week. The peanut oil inventory is 40,700 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [11]. - **Pressing Profit**: The purchase price of peanut oil mills is stable, the price of peanut meal has declined, and the price of peanut oil has risen. As a result, the pressing profit of oil mills is 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to last week. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The price of peanut meal has declined to 3300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [14]. - **Basis and Spread**: - Spread: This week, due to a slight increase in the October peanut contract, the October - January peanut spread has risen from around 20 to around 60 [19]. - Futures - spot price difference: The current warehouse receipt is 8000 yuan/ton, and the general peanut price is 8100 yuan/ton [19]. - **Peanut Imports and Exports**: - Peanut kernel imports: In March, 13,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, and from January to March, 41,000 tons were imported, a decrease of 59.4% compared to the same period last year [22]. - Peanut kernel exports: In March, 18,000 tons of peanut kernels were exported, and from January to March, a total of 45,000 tons were exported, an increase of 21% compared to the same period last year [22]. - Peanut oil imports: In March, 32,000 tons of peanut oil were imported, and from January to March, a total of 87,000 tons were imported, a year - on - year increase of 30% [22]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Various data charts are provided, including the price trends of Shandong general peanut kernels, the purchase prices of oil mills, the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts, the opening rate of peanut oil mills, the peanut kernel inventory and pressing volume of peanut oil mills, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the spread between peanut meal and soybean meal, the price of Shandong peanut oil, the spread between different peanut futures contracts, and the import and export volume of peanuts and peanut oil [7][10][13][18][21]. - Specific data on the import price and cumulative import volume of peanut oil from different countries are also provided, such as the cumulative import volume of peanut oil from January to March 2025 is 87,051.45 tons, with an average import price of 1531.86 US dollars/ton [45].

Group 1: Report Summary - Title: Apple Weekly Report: Demand Shows Well, Apple Prices Stable with a Slight Increase [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Report Sections: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies; Weekly Data Tracking [2][15] Group 2: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies Spot Analysis - Cold storage apple inventory is at the lowest level in the same period of the past five years, with high - priced goods mainly in Shandong and northern Shaanxi. Market demand decreases in May due to rising temperatures and more seasonal fruits. Shandong has strong reluctance to sell, and purchase has become more cautious. Shaanxi has stable prices, but limited tradable volume and high reluctance to sell [5]. - In Shandong, the weighted average price of bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods is 4.16 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin (0.48% MoM, 10.34% YoY). The Thursday closing price is 4.19 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin (1.21%) from April 30. In Shaanxi, the weighted average price of bagged Fuji 70 and above is 3.87 yuan/jin, flat MoM and up 0.1657% YoY, with the Thursday closing price flat from April 30 [5]. Supply Analysis - As of May 8, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio is 14.47%, down 3.98 ppts in two weeks, 10.77 ppts lower than last year. Shandong's cold storage capacity ratio is 21.72%, down 5.08 ppts; Shaanxi's is 13.62%, down 4.21 ppts. As of May 16, the national main - producing area cold storage inventory is 228.86 tons, down 37.91 tons MoM [10]. Demand Analysis - Recent apple arrivals in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao are average, with 63 - 76 trucks this week. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits on May 8 is 7.92 yuan/kg, up 0.29 yuan/kg from last Friday. The profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 season is 0.9 yuan/jin, flat MoM [13]. Trading Strategies - Trading logic: Low cold storage inventory, good demand, and potential impacts on new fruit production may lead to a slightly bullish trend. - Unilateral: Short - term, go long on AP10 at low prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [14] Group 3: Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - Data on apple exports, planting area, consumption, etc., are presented in charts [17] Inventory and Shipment - Charts show trends in national and Shandong cold storage apple inventory and national cold storage apple shipment [19][21] Spread and Basis - Charts show 1 - 5, 5 - 10, 10 - 1 spreads, and 1 - month, 5 - month, 10 - month basis [24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of US cotton is expected to remain the same, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak in the short - term and continue to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Traders can consider shorting on rallies in the short - term [7][12][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: Uncertain weather may affect growth, and increased purchases from countries like Vietnam may have a positive impact. Short - term trend is expected to remain the same [7] - **US Cotton Growth**: As of May 4, the planting rate was 21%, 2% slower than last year and 1 percentage point faster than the five - year average. The main producing areas are still dry [7] - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of May 1, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing decreased, 2025/26 cumulative signing declined, and 2024/25 weekly shipment increased. Pima cotton signing and shipment also increased [7] - **CFTC Position**: As of May 2, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2507 contract decreased, and the total number of unpriced contracts of 24/25 sellers decreased, while the total number of ICE unpriced contracts increased [7] - **Other Countries**: Brazil's Mato Grosso state is expected to have a slight increase in seed cotton production. India's weekly cotton listing volume decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative listing volume accounted for 91% of the predicted output [7] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated this week. After the release of macro - sentiment, it is expected to be weak in the short - term [12] - **Supply Side**: As of mid - April, China's commercial cotton inventory was 415.26 tons. As of April 15, the national cotton direct - seeding progress was 75%, and Xinjiang's planting intention area increased by 1.8% [12] - **Demand Side**: After "Golden March and Silver April", the market enters the off - season. As of May 8, the mainstream spinning mills' operating rate was 74.4%, and it is expected to decline next week. There are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream sectors [12] Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.5156 yesterday, and the implied volatility of some options increased slightly [19] - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: Sell call options [19][21] Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: In the short - term, cotton supply is sufficient and demand is average. After "Golden March and Silver April", the market enters the off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation. In the long - term, the US economy may face recession, and cotton prices are expected to decline [21] - **Specific Strategies**: Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly strong, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and decline in the medium - to - long - term. Consider shorting on rallies. Arbitrage: Short September and long January. Option: Sell call options [21] Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: Data on internal and external cotton price differences and 9 - 1 - month price difference trends are presented [23][24] - **Mid - end Situation**: Data on the operating rate and inventory days of pure cotton spinning mills and all - cotton fabric mills are shown [26] - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mills' industrial inventory, and reserve inventory over the years are provided [27] - **Futures - Spot Basis**: Data on the basis of cotton in different months and the basis of US cotton are presented [29]