Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the escalation and subsequent decline of the Iran situation, geopolitical risks have fluctuated more widely. The impact of the Venezuelan situation on oil prices has been gradually digested by the market, and the expectation of tight supply of asphalt raw materials has eased. However, the increase in raw material discounts has not been fully priced in, leading to high - level oscillations in asphalt. In terms of supply and demand, the off - season at the beginning of the year has arrived as expected, with both weekly supply and demand decreasing month - on - month. The industrial chain inventory remains at a low level, and the spot price is relatively firm. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level [5]. - For trading strategies, the single - side trading of asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level with increased geopolitical risk fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage between BU4 - 6, and it is recommended to wait and see for options trading [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Geopolitical risks lead to increased cost fluctuations. The supply and demand of asphalt are in the off - season, with inventory at a low level and the spot price remaining firm. The futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading: high - level oscillation with increased geopolitical risk fluctuations; Arbitrage: focus on BU4 - 6 positive spread arbitrage; Options: wait and see [6]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Cost and Supply**: The cost is strengthening, and the supply is at a low level. The price of asphalt in some regions has increased, and the overall market price has continued to rise. The increase in crude oil prices and the reduction in supply in some areas have led to price increases in North China, Shandong, and other regions [11]. - **Price Movement**: The price of asphalt in the market has continued to rise. The prices in Northeast, North China, Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, and Southwest (Sichuan and Chongqing) regions have increased by 5 - 40 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions have remained stable. The rise in crude oil and futures prices, as well as supply - demand factors in different regions, have supported the price increase [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: Geopolitical instability has increased cost fluctuations. The Brent main contract is expected to fluctuate between 61 - 64 US dollars. As of January 9, the theoretical processing profit of asphalt refineries was 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The basis of asphalt in different regions has changed to varying degrees [14]. - **Production**: The overall production of asphalt has increased slightly month - on - month. The production in the Northwest region has increased significantly, while that in the Northeast region has decreased slightly. The production in other regions has shown different degrees of change [16][17]. - **Inventory**: The refinery inventory has remained at a low level, with a slight increase in the overall inventory. The social inventory has increased steadily due to the storage of winter - reserve resources. Different regions have shown different inventory trends due to factors such as production, demand, and resource storage [19][20][22]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the asphalt main contract, Brent crude oil, and the prices of asphalt in different regions have shown certain fluctuations. The basis and profit margins of asphalt refineries and refined oil refineries have also changed [25]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: The refinery operating rate has increased slightly, the refinery inventory rate has increased slightly, the social inventory rate has increased slightly, the refinery weekly output has increased, and the refinery shipment volume has also changed [25].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research on the hog market on January 19, 2026, with the title "Supply Pressure Reduces, Spot Runs Strongly" [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Spot hog prices across the country are running strongly, but considering the high inventory and large出栏 weight, the subsequent supply pressure may continue to show, and the spot price is expected to decline in the long - term [3][5] - Hog futures prices continued to decline today, affected by recent data and the full reflection of positive factors in previous price increases. The futures price may face downward pressure after the current round of increase stabilizes [5] Group 4: Price and Profit Data Spot Prices - The average spot price of hogs today is 13.03 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in various regions have increased, with the largest increase of 1 yuan/kg in Guangdong [3] Futures Prices - Futures prices of most contracts declined, such as LH03 down 275 yuan, LH05 down 210 yuan [3] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices are 330 yuan, up 23 yuan from last week; sow prices remain unchanged at 1557 yuan [3] Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 7.39 yuan, up 18.93 yuan; the profit of purchasing piglets is 48.35 yuan, up 50.66 yuan [3] Contract Spreads - For example, LH7 - 9 is - 825, up 75 from yesterday; LH9 - 1 is 1290, down 270 from yesterday [3] Slaughter and Size Pig Spreads - The slaughter volume is 191,453 heads, down 927 from yesterday. The large - to - standard pig spread is 0.7, up 0.21 from yesterday [3] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish mindset [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [6]

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 01 月 19 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： 研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 市场消息及观点 :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日似 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日似 | 涨跌 | | 成 | | | | | | あ | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.79 | 109.13 | 0.66 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.94 | 7.84 | 0.1 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 1 月 19 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/1/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,260 | -7 | -0.13% | 15,933 | -4763 | 89,055 | 58 | | SR01 | | 5,340 | 36 | 0.68% | 134 | -4707 | 117 | 117 | | SR05 | | 5,244 | -14 | -0.27% | 217,180 | 39411 | 427,297 | 580 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | | 5390 | 5215 | 5660 | 5360 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The recent increase in egg prices is mainly due to the significant rise in spot prices, with the approaching Spring Festival leading to a faster overall market sales situation. The current egg production is starting to reduce capacity, and it is expected that the production capacity will likely continue to decline in the next few months. However, the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited as it is a post - Spring Festival contract with weak demand and low egg prices after the Spring Festival [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Fundamental Information - **Price Changes**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas today is 3.67 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.91 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable today, with some regions showing price increases or remaining unchanged [2][4]. - **Inventory Status**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5]. - **Slaughter and Sales Volume**: From January 16th to the end of the week, the number of laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of laying hens in the week of January 16th was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. As of the week of January 8th, the sales volume of eggs in the representative selling areas was 7391 tons, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week, at a low level over the years [5]. - **Profit Situation**: As of January 15th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan/jin from the previous week. On January 9th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory Days**: As of the week of January 15th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, also slightly decreasing from the previous week [6]. - **Slaughter Chicken Price**: Today, the price of slaughter chickens nationwide increased, with the average price in the main producing areas at 4.45 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [7]. II. Trading Logic - The strong performance of spot prices provides some support for the futures market. The current reduction in egg production capacity and the approaching Spring Festival are factors contributing to the price increase. However, due to the weak demand for eggs after the Spring Festival, the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited [8]. III. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider building long positions in the 5 - month far - month contract at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Cotton sales progress is fast, at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, and downstream备货意愿 has increased, with textile mills starting to place orders gradually. The cotton price is supported by market bullish factors, but it has recently pulled back, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For trading strategies, it is recommended to consider building long positions on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices while keeping a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: CF01 contract closed at 15140 with an increase of 465, CF05 at 14545 with a decrease of 45, and CF09 at 14710 with a decrease of 35. CY01 was at 0 with a decrease of 20250, CY05 at 20570 with a decrease of 45, and CY09 at 0 with a decrease of 20675. Details of trading volume, open interest, and their changes are also provided [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B was at 15880 yuan/ton with a decrease of 92, Cot A at 74.80 cents/pound, FC Index:M: to - port price at 72.29 with a decrease of 0.30, etc. [2] - **Price Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was 595 with an increase of 510, 5 - 9 month spread was - 165 with a decrease of 10, etc. In yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 20570 with a decrease of 20205, etc. [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **Brazil**: In the 2025/26 season, Brazil is expected to remain dominant in the global cotton market. The total cotton output may decline slightly from the previous record - high year but will still be the second - highest in history. The planting area is expected to increase slightly by 0.7% to 2.1 million hectares, the yield per unit area is expected to decrease by 3.5%, and the total output will be 3.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The domestic available supply is expected to be 6.77 million tons, an increase of 4.5%. Exports are expected to reach 3.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.98%, and domestic consumption is estimated to be 730,000 tons. As of December 2026, the ending inventory is expected to be 2.98 million tons, an increase of 6.07% compared to December 2025. As of January 6, the contract trading volume of 2025/26 cotton reached 621,520 tons, equivalent to 16% of the estimated national total output, and the pre - sales volume of 2026/27 cotton has reached at least 73,000 tons [4][5] - **USA**: As of the week of January 16, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7896 million tons, accounting for 94.6% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton output, 8% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 94.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 8%, and that of Pima cotton was 90.5%, 19% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 75.4%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.1%, 1.3 percentage points higher year - on - year [5] - **China**: On January 19, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - bound cotton was 0.1679 yuan/ton·km, a month - on - month increase of 0.66%. It is expected to show a narrow - range overall fluctuation in the short term [6] Trading Logic - The cotton sales progress is fast, and downstream备货意愿 has increased. The cotton price is supported by market bullish factors, but it has recently pulled back, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8] Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will mostly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and the fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton are still strong. It is recommended to consider building long positions at low prices. - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see. - **Options**: Wait - and - see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - **Domestic Market**: The domestic cotton yarn market remains sluggish, with prices generally stable but weak market sentiment. Spinning mills are mainly focused on active sales and inventory digestion. Some spinning enterprises have received downstream restocking orders, but the scale and enthusiasm are lower than in previous years. Most spinning enterprises still face the pressure of insufficient orders. Downstream rigid - demand purchases are mainly for sporadic restocking, and the overall stocking intention is not strong [9] - **Fabric Market**: Cotton fabric traders are cautious in stocking, with general purchase and order - placing volumes, mainly small - batch orders. The orders of weaving factories are average, and although the local operating rate has slightly recovered, the overall operating rate is still at a low level. It is expected that some weaving factories will gradually start their holidays at the end of the month. The inventory of weaving factories is still at a high level, and they prioritize inventory reduction to recover funds [10] Third Part: Options - **Option Contracts**: For example, on January 19, 2026, the CF605C14600.CZC contract had a closing price of 334.00 with a decrease of 16.9%, an implied volatility of 13.3%, etc. - **Volatility**: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3%, CF605 - C - 14200 was 11.3%, and CF605 - P - 13800 was 11.2%. - **Option Strategy**: The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.8667, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13][15] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides figures such as the 1% tariff - based price spread between domestic and foreign cotton markets, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [18][22][26][27]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The stock index showed differentiation again. High - position stocks' consecutive limit - downs reduced market enthusiasm, but the rebound of power grid equipment and aviation equipment maintained market heat. Sectors related to Spring Festival consumption and price - increase themes rose, and individual stocks had more gains than losses, indicating stable investor sentiment. The CSRC's work meeting information had a strong guiding effect on the market, and it is expected that the stock index will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the future [9] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Financial News - China's total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 1.5% and a previous increase of 1.3% [2][3] - In December 2025, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened [4] - China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in 2025 was 48.5186 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, and a 2.6% decrease from January to November. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 6.4% year - on - year. In December, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.13% month - on - month [4] - China's added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in December 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 4.9% and a previous increase of 4.8%. In December, it increased by 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, it increased by 5.9% year - on - year [4] - China's per capita disposable income of national residents in 2025 was 43,377 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.0% year - on - year. After deducting price factors, the actual increase was 5.0%. The median per capita disposable income of national residents was 36,231 yuan, an increase of 4.4%, and the median was 83.5% of the average [4] - China's real estate development investment in 2025 was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 8.7% year - on - year, with the residential sales area decreasing by 9.2%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 12.6%, with the residential sales volume decreasing by 13.0%. The funds in place of real estate development enterprises decreased by 13.4% year - on - year. In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45 [5] - On January 19, the central bank carried out 158.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate. The operating interest rate was 1.40%, the bid volume was 158.3 billion yuan, and the winning bid volume was 158.3 billion yuan. On the same day, 86.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, with a net investment of 72.2 billion yuan [5] 2. Investment Logic Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the stock index continued to fluctuate sideways. By the close, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.12%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.05%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.67%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.4%. The total market turnover was 2.73 trillion yuan. The stock index opened slightly lower and then fluctuated higher. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indexes were strong, and the market maintained a sideways shock after the rally, with mixed closing results [6] - There were more rising stocks than falling stocks in the two markets, with 3,527 stocks rising and 1,828 stocks falling. Sectors such as power grid equipment, aviation equipment, hotel catering, chemical fiber, precious metals, and tourism led the market, while sectors such as AI applications, consumer electronics, banks, real estate, and securities fell [6] - Stock index futures were differentiated along with the spot market. By the close, the main contract IH2603 fell 0.11%, IF2603 rose 0.2%, IC2603 rose 0.82%, and IM2603 rose 0.26%. The discounts of IM and IH widened again, the discount of IF slightly converged, and the discount of IC slightly expanded. The trading volumes of IM, IC, IF, and IH decreased by 14.8%, 11.3%, 22.2%, and 28.5% respectively; the positions of IM and IC increased by 0.3% and 2% respectively, while the positions of IF and IH decreased by 1.5% and 1.7% respectively [8] Market Outlook and Trading Strategy - It is expected that the stock index will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the future. The trading strategy for stock index futures is to trade within a box - shaped consolidation range [9][10] 3. Data Chart Presentation - The report presents multiple charts, including those related to the trading volume and positions of stock index futures (such as IF, IH, IC, IM), the basis of stock index futures, southbound capital changes, margin trading balance, price - earnings ratio, price - to - book ratio, trading volume and positions of treasury bond futures (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, 30 - year), spreads between treasury bond futures contracts, deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase interest rates and trading volume, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rates, 3M and 6M national - share bank draft transfer discount rates, treasury bond yields, and treasury bond term spreads [13][18][21]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Galaxy Futures' Agricultural Products R & D Report - Fats and Oils Daily Report [1][5][12][17] - Report date: January 19, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean oil**: The 2605 closing price was 7996, down 20. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8516, 8566, and 8386 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 570, 520, and 390 respectively, with no change [2]. - **Palm oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8648, down 26. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8618, 8628, and 8768 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30, -20, and 120 respectively, with no change [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8902, down 161. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9552, 9502. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 650, and 600 respectively, with no change [2]. Monthly Spread Closing Prices - **Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread**: 120, down 10 [2]. - **Palm oil 5 - 9 spread**: 26, up 14 [2]. - **Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread**: -21, down 74 [2]. Cross - Variety Spreads - **Y - P 05 contract**: -652, up 6 [2]. - **OI - Y 05 contract**: 906, no change in the reported movement [2]. - **OI - P 05 contract**: 254, down 135 [2]. - **Oil - meal ratio**: 2.93, down 0.01 [2]. Import Profits - **24 - degree palm oil**: The盘面 profit for Malaysia & Indonesia was -177, with a CNF price of 1057 for the 2 - month ship - period [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The盘面 profit for Rotterdam was -1133, with an FOB price of 1025 for the 2 - month ship - period [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventory (in 10,000 tons) - **Soybean oil**: 72.7 this week, 102.5 last week, 108.1 last year [2]. - **Palm oil**: 73.6 this week, 48.2 last year [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: 25.1 this week, 27.3 last week, 50.6 last year [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The new China - Canada economic and trade agreement is a positive development for Canadian canola growers, but key details need to be clarified. There is hope for improved market access after months of interruption. Ross Burtnak welcomes the potential reduction of canola seed tariffs and the cancellation of rapeseed meal tariffs, but is unsure about canola oil and needs further information [4]. Domestic Market - **Palm oil**: As of January 16, 2026 (week 3), the national key - area commercial inventory was 74.61 tons, up 1.01 tons (1.37%) from last week. It is at a slightly above - average level in the same period historically. The origin's quotes are stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 200. There was a reported purchase of 1 ship of palm oil. The basis is stable. In the short - term, it lacks a clear driver, with slow de - stocking expected under high inventory, and the high inventory will persist. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [4][6]. - **Soybean oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 199.42 tons, with an operating rate of 54.86%, an increase from the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area commercial inventory was 96.33 tons, down 6.18 tons (6.03%) from last week. It is at a relatively high level in the same period historically. The basis is stable. Downstream demand has no bright spots. As soybean arrivals decrease and soybean crushing declines, the inventory may slightly decrease, but overall supply is sufficient. In the short - term, it lacks a clear driver and is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Due to the improvement in China - Canada relations, rapeseed from Canada is expected to enter the domestic market, and the rapeseed oil futures price fell by more than 1% today. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory was exhausted. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 25.1 tons, down 2.2 tons from last week, at a neutral level in the same period historically, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote is stable at around $1030, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1100. The domestic available rapeseed oil supply is tight, and traders are still holding prices. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may cause the rapeseed oil market to fluctuate weakly. However, considering the time needed for rapeseed purchases to arrive after March and the expected release of the US biodiesel final plan in March, which is positive for soybean oil and rapeseed oil, the decline of near - month rapeseed oil contracts may be limited [7]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral trading**: In the short - term, the fats and oils market fluctuates with increased volatility, but there are many uncertain factors and no prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing the spot basis of different oils, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][18][22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of peanuts is expected to be relatively stable in the short term, with the futures price of peanuts continuing to fluctuate at the bottom. The market is trading on the low import cost of Senegalese peanuts, but the cost of warehouse receipts is still expected to be relatively high. The 05 peanut contract will fluctuate at the bottom, and the supply of oil peanuts is still abundant [3][6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 7842, up 36 or 0.46%, with a trading volume of 28,969 (up 1.48%) and an open interest of 29,326 (down 2.35%); PK610 closed at 8206, up 34 or 0.41%, with a trading volume of 174 (down 45.79%) and an open interest of 2,764 (up 1.10%); PK601 data was invalid [1]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7400, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with price changes of 0, -400, and -400. The basis was -442, 158, and 158. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil were 3250, 3100, 14320, and 8380 respectively, with no price changes. The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8600 with no change [1]. - **Spreads**: The PK04 - PK10 spread was -364, up 2 [1]. Second Part: Market Analysis - **Peanut Prices**: Peanut prices in Henan were stable, while those in Northeast China were relatively strong. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.55 yuan/jin, stable; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.6 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, stable; the price in Junan, Shandong was 3.5 yuan/jin, stable. The import prices of Sudanese refined peanuts, Brazilian new peanuts, and Indian specification peanuts were stable [3]. - **Peanut Oil and By - products**: The purchase prices of some peanut oil mills were stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 6900 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 7780 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable. The price of domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was 14300 yuan/ton, and the market price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton. The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal was stable at 3090 yuan/ton, and the short - term price of peanut meal was relatively strong, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3100 yuan/ton [3][4]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Go short - term long on the 05 peanut contract when the price is low [7]. - **Calendar Spread**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Sell the pk603 - P - 8200 option when the price is high [9]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include six figures showing the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the压榨 profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 4 - 10 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [11][17][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market has been in a weak and volatile state recently, with the market continuously debating the future decline rate of freight rates and the intensity of the Q1 rush shipment. The spot freight rate is in the process of reaching its peak and then falling back. Although the rush shipment due to export tax rebates may delay the decline, it is difficult to reverse the downward trend. The 04 contract shows a discount, and attention should be paid to the subsequent Q1 rush shipment intensity. The spot settlement price remains high, mainly because most ships were delayed in January, and it is expected that the index will gradually decline in the future [5]. - The inflection point of the spot freight rate has emerged, and attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation. From a fundamental perspective, the cargo volume is gradually entering the range of reaching its peak and then falling back. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 ports in Northern Europe in January, February, and March is 303,100 TEU, 253,000 TEU, and 268,800 TEU respectively, with little overall change compared to last week. From a traditional seasonal perspective, freight rates gradually enter the off - season from February to March. After the policy of canceling export tax rebates for most commodities from April 1st, a phased rush shipment is expected, but there are still differences in the market regarding the intensity of the rush shipment. Geopolitically, the far - month market is still suppressed by the resumption of navigation, but the overall resumption of navigation in the European line is expected to be difficult in the first half of the year [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to many disturbances and differences in the intensity of the rush shipment. For arbitrage, it is advisable to enter the 6 - 10 positive spread position in batches at low prices [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 were 1,714.3, 1,132.2, 1,318.0, 1,459.0, 1,054.1, and 1,300.0 respectively, with changes of +3.8 (+0.22%), +11.2 (+1.00%), +6.8 (+0.52%), - 6.6 (-0.45%), - 1.0 (-0.09%), and +10.0 (+0.78%) respectively. The trading volumes were 1,999.0, 30,559.0, 2,329.0, 121.0, 1,410, and 40 respectively, with changes of - 17.84%, - 38.53%, - 43.70%, - 72.99%, - 34.42%, and - 38.46% respectively. The open interests were 6,439.0, 41,888.0, 4,200.0, 1,366.0, 8,186, and 122 respectively, with changes of - 15.03%, - 1.75%, +11.11%, - 1.37%, +3.12%, and +1.67% respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: For example, the spread of EC02 - EC04 was 582, with a change of - 7.4; the spread of EC04 - EC06 was - 186, with a change of +4.4 [3]. 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line index was 1,954.19, with a week - on - week change of - 0.11% and a year - on - year change of - 29.89%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1,305.27, with a week - on - week change of - 1.41% and a year - on - year change of - 46.68%. Different routes of the SCFI also showed various changes, such as the Shanghai - Europe route at 1,676 USD/TEU, with a week - on - week change of - 2.50% and a year - on - year change of - 41.21% [3]. 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month was 59.46 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week change of +0.32% and a year - on - year change of - 23.68%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was 63.44 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week change of +0.36% and a year - on - year change of - 20.7% [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - The market is debating the future decline rate of freight rates and the intensity of the Q1 rush shipment. The spot freight rate is at the peak - to - decline stage, and the rush shipment due to export tax rebates may delay the decline but is difficult to reverse the trend. The 04 contract shows a discount. The spot settlement price is high because of ship delays in January, and the index is expected to decline [5]. - The inflection point of the spot freight rate has emerged. The cargo volume is reaching its peak and then falling back. The supply of shipping capacity has little change. From a seasonal perspective, the off - season is from February to March, but the export tax rebate cancellation policy may lead to a phased rush shipment. There are differences in the market regarding the intensity of the rush shipment. Geopolitically, the far - month market is suppressed by the resumption of navigation, but the large - scale resumption of the European line is difficult in the first half of the year [6]. 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to many disturbances and differences in the intensity of the rush shipment [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the 6 - 10 positive spread position in batches at low prices [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Canada will reduce tariffs on some Chinese electric vehicles, allowing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market with a 6.1% most - favored - nation tariff rate, and the quota will increase annually [10]. - The US is preparing for an attack on Iran [11]. - US President Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all goods exported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland to the US from February 1st, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% from June 1st until an agreement on "fully and completely purchasing Greenland" is reached. The EU will hold an emergency meeting, and some EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods exported to the EU [11][12].