1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bearish pressure on the meal market has been mostly reflected, and the market is experiencing a phased rebound. The international soybean market supply - demand situation is relatively stable, with limited price changes expected. The US soybean market has some support but still faces export - related pressure. The Brazilian soybean market may face price pressure in the medium - term. The domestic meal market is in a state of relatively loose supply - demand, but the supply may tighten in the future. The monthly spread of soybean meal shows a strong operation trend, and that of rapeseed meal follows suit [1][3][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes Review - The US soybean market fluctuated after the monthly supply - demand report, with limited changes. The domestic soybean meal market stabilized after a sharp decline, and the rapeseed meal market rebounded under the influence of soybean meal. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to narrow, and the monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis International Market - The US soybean has obvious downward pressure due to large export pressure. The Brazilian new - crop soybean planting progress has accelerated but is still at a low level compared to the same period in history. Most institutions expect a bumper harvest in Brazil, and the export volume is expected to increase significantly. The old - crop soybeans in Brazil have strong export and crushing performance. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is large, and its recent crushing and export have increased [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The oil mill operating rate remains high, with sufficient supply and increasing提货 volume. The inventory is at a high level. The market demand is increasing, but there is still uncertainty about future supply. As of December 5, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.0558 million tons, the operating rate was 56.55%, the soybean inventory was 7.1552 million tons (down 184,400 tons or 2.51% from last week, up 1.6849 million tons or 30.80% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons (down 41,300 tons or 3.43% from last week, up 481,400 tons or 70.74% year - on - year). The domestic rapeseed meal demand has weakened, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply is low, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory is high. As of December 5, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 0 tons (unchanged from last week), and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons (up 0.01 million tons from last week) [5] 3.3 Logic Analysis - The US soybean market is expected to face some pressure due to slow exports, but the decline depth is limited as the price has already reflected most of the bearish factors, and it will mainly fluctuate at a high level. The short - term weather in Brazil has improved, putting pressure on the market. The domestic soybean meal supply may tighten in the future, and there is still price pressure in the medium - to - long - term. The rapeseed meal supply pressure remains obvious. The monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be strongly supported [6] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Participate in laying out a small number of long positions - Arbitrage: Narrow the MRM spread - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [7] 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit - The table shows the soybean pressing profit data from Brazil with different shipping dates on December 10, 2025, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and changes in pressing profit [8]

研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 787.5 | 780.0 | 7.5 | I01-I05 | 18.5 | 22.5 | -4.0 | | DCE05 | 769.0 | 757.5 | 11.5 | I05-I09 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | | DCE09 | 745.0 | 733.5 | 11.5 | I09-I01 | -42.5 | -46.5 | 4.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 780 | 780 | 0 | 847 | 59 | 81 | 105 | | 纽曼粉 | 782 | 782 | 0 | 855 | 67 | 90 | 114 | | 麦克粉 | 776 | 774 | 2 | 857 | 69 | 92 | 116 | | 金布巴粉(60.5%) | 736 | 7 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by real - estate stimulus policy rumors, the black - metal sector rose today, with iron ore leading the increase, but coking coal still fell before the close. Steel spot trading was generally fair, with increased low - price speculation and futures - cash purchases, while rigid demand was average. This week, building materials production decreased rapidly, while plate production increased slightly. Steel inventories decreased overall, with social inventory decreasing faster than factory inventory. Affected by seasonality, rebar demand dropped significantly, but hot - rolled demand continued to rise. It is expected that pig iron production will continue to decline this week, but blast - furnace profits have recovered, reducing the drive for active production cuts. Recently, coal and coke prices dropped sharply, driving steel prices down, but in December, coal supply may shrink again, and steel mills have restocking expectations. With a structural shortage of iron ore PB powder, steel costs are supported. Although building materials demand declines seasonally, it is not weaker than the seasonal average, and manufacturing demand is still supported. Therefore, short - term steel prices will remain range - bound with raw materials, and the performance may be weaker than in November. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro news on the market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. - Unilateral trading is expected to maintain a slightly upward - trending oscillation. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot - rolled - coal ratio and the hot - rolled - rebar spread at high prices. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3250 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3150 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3280 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3190 yuan (unchanged) [4]. Market Research and Judgment - **Transaction Strategy**: - Unilateral: Maintain a slightly upward - trending oscillation [6]. - Arbitrage: Short the hot - rolled - coal ratio and the hot - rolled - rebar spread at high prices [6]. - Options: Wait and see [6]. - **Important Information**: - In November, the global blast - furnace steel mill pig iron production was 104.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.78 million tons (4.4% decline) and a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. Excluding mainland China, the sample production of other countries and regions was 34.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.11 million tons (3.1% decline) and a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The average daily pig iron production of blast - furnace steel mills outside mainland China in November was 1.1401 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.001 million tons (0.09% increase) [7][8]. - China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year (in line with expectations, compared with 0.2% in the previous month), and the PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year (expected to decrease by 2%, compared with a 2.1% decrease in the previous month) [8]. Relevant Attachments - The report includes 31 figures showing various data such as steel prices, basis, spreads, and profits from 2021 to 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [9][11][12]...[49].

第一部分 市场信息 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 铁合金日报 | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5434 | -28 | -12 | 359824 | 114711 | 270595 | -5483 | | SM主力合约 | 5724 | -8 | -22 | 183801 | -75254 | 280089 | -2262 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5200 | 0 | -50 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5520 | 10 | -10 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5200 | 0 | 0 | 硅锰6517宁夏 | 5490 | 0 | -30 | | 72%FeSi青海 | 5250 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2241 | 5 | 0.22% | 695,599 | -15.64% | 637,445 | -14.52% | | C2605 | | 2265 | -1 | -0.04% | 119,070 | -12.32% | 437,998 | 2.40% | | C2509 | | 2279 | 1 | 0.04% | 7,953 | -22.39% | 34,501 | 0.21% | | CS2601 | | 2532 | 10 | 0.39% | 110,800 | -31.64% | 176,411 | -7.97% | | CS260 ...

1. Report Information - Report title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Date: December 10, 2025 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,408.24, up 0.37%, with a trading volume of 21,561 lots (down 6%) and a trading value of 36.02 billion yuan (down 8%) [4] - The IM main - contract (IM2512) rose 0.22% to close at 7,371.4 points. The trading volume of IM four - contracts was 177,447 lots, an increase of 36,576 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 369,233 lots, an increase of 9,226 lots [4][5] 2.2 Basis and Other Indicators - The IM main - contract was at a discount of 36.84 points, down 4.06 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was - 18.24% [5] - The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.34 points, 1.2 points, 1.21 points, and 44.18 points respectively [5] 2.3 Main Seats - For IM2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume had a total of 46,882 lots, an increase of 11,437 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of long positions had 45,109 lots (an increase of 1,400 lots), and the top five seats in terms of short positions had 56,585 lots (an increase of 1,488 lots) [19] 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,591.83, down 0.14%, with a trading volume of 16,911 lots (down 8%) and a trading value of 40.15 billion yuan (down 11%) [24] - The IF main - contract (IF2512) fell 0.17% to close at 4,574.2 points. The trading volume of IF four - contracts was 122,684 lots, an increase of 23,187 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 276,464 lots, an increase of 7,169 lots [24][25] 3.2 Basis and Other Indicators - The IF main - contract was at a discount of 17.63 points, down 2.61 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was - 14.07% [25] - The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 3.54 points, 9.82 points, 10.92 points, and 40.57 points respectively [25] 3.3 Main Seats - For IF2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume had a total of 75,172 lots, an increase of 12,528 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of long positions had 54,636 lots (a decrease of 1,176 lots), and the top five seats in terms of short positions had 56,894 lots (an increase of 127 lots) [37] 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 7,155.99, up 0.49%, with a trading volume of 15,397 lots (down 8%) and a trading value of 28.05 billion yuan (down 8%) [42] - The IC main - contract (IC2512) rose 0.4% to close at 7,122.2 points. The trading volume of IC four - contracts was 116,534 lots, an increase of 20,739 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 252,255 lots, an increase of 2,642 lots [42][43] 4.2 Basis and Other Indicators - The IC main - contract was at a discount of 33.79 points, down 6.86 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was - 17.32% [43] - The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 0.84 points, 2.37 points, 2.94 points, and 57.32 points respectively [43] 4.3 Main Seats - For IC2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume had a total of 31,609 lots, an increase of 5,655 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of long positions had 34,243 lots (an increase of 1,249 lots), and the top five seats in terms of short positions had 44,390 lots (an increase of 1,291 lots) [58] 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 2,988.64, down 0.31%, with a trading volume of 4,151 lots (down 4%) and a trading value of 10.13 billion yuan (down 8%) [64] - The IH main - contract (IH2512) fell 0.35% to close at 2,980.8 points. The trading volume of IH four - contracts was 51,211 lots, an increase of 12,074 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 96,737 lots, an increase of 4,369 lots [64] 5.2 Basis and Other Indicators - The IH main - contract was at a discount of 7.84 points, down 1.48 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was - 9.6% [65] - The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 4.68 points, 12.33 points, 13.5 points, and 31.52 points respectively [65] 5.3 Main Seats - For IH2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume had a total of 35,039 lots, an increase of 9,905 lots from the previous day. The top five seats in terms of long positions had 23,003 lots (an increase of 1,156 lots), and the top five seats in terms of short positions had 27,634 lots (an increase of 651 lots) [80]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core View - The spot price of live pigs is stable in the short - term, but the pressure on the futures market is increasing. The overall supply of the live pig market is still sufficient, so the spot price is expected to decline in the long - run, and the futures price may be volatile in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [1][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Content Spot Price - Today, live pig prices across China showed an upward trend. The average price was 11.62 yuan, up 0.1 yuan from yesterday. Scale enterprises' slaughter volume was stable overall, and the short - term market slaughter pressure was limited. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell pigs decreased, and the overall slaughter pressure may improve. The number of second - fattening pigs entering the market continued to decrease, and the enthusiasm for replenishment decreased. The current average slaughter weight of live pigs rebounded, and the supply of large - weight pigs was still relatively large. The slowdown in the slaughter rhythm supported the pig price to some extent [3] Futures Price - Live pig futures prices showed a downward trend, while the spot price rebounded slightly. The large decline in the futures price earlier reflected the large supply pressure, but the spot price was stable. In the short - term, the monthly slaughter volume may increase, and the price will fluctuate. In the medium - and long - term, due to the high inventory, the supply pressure is obvious, and the futures price is expected to face downward pressure [5] Piglet and Sow Price - The price of piglets this week was 215 yuan, up 6 yuan from last week, and the price of sows remained unchanged at 1545 yuan [3] Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 167.69 yuan, down 19.71 yuan from yesterday, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 259.39 yuan, down 10.57 yuan from yesterday [3] Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased by 1333 heads to 183603 heads compared with yesterday [3] Price Difference - The price difference between different pig sizes changed. For example, the difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increased by 0.03 to 0.53, while the difference between large pigs and standard pigs decreased by 0.04 to 0.29 [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Adopt a bearish approach. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell a wide straddle strategy [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - side of domestic refineries has limited start - stop scales, with most devices operating stably. Regional production shows differentiation, with significant diesel increments in Shandong but a slight decrease in gasoline and a slight increase in diesel for the national independent refineries. The gasoline market enters a new replenishment cycle with strong summer demand, leading to a tight - balance situation. The diesel market is pressured by weak demand and low replenishment motivation. In terms of inventory, Shandong's gasoline refinery inventory is expected to decline, while diesel inventory pressure will increase. Next week, there is still downward pressure on the wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel, but the decline in gasoline prices may narrow, and diesel will continue to explore the bottom. Retail profits of gasoline and diesel are expected to rise slightly [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis 3.1.1 Market Overview - On the supply side, major refineries have stable operations with no new start - stop devices. Shandong independent refineries' operation rate continues to rise. Major refineries' gasoline prices stop falling and diesel prices are stable, while independent refineries' gasoline and diesel production both decline. The diesel - to - gasoline ratio drops by 0.01 to 1.31. On the demand side, gasoline demand improves with high - volume ship orders and a sales - to - production ratio over 100%. Diesel demand is weak with low ship and vehicle order volumes. In terms of inventory, commercial inventories of gasoline and diesel both increase. Gasoline inventory is 1101 million tons, up 12 million tons (1.1%) week - on - week; diesel inventory is 1384 million tons, up 4 million tons (0.3%) week - on - week. Independent refineries' gasoline and diesel inventories slightly decrease. Social gasoline inventory increases and diesel inventory decreases [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Supply: Domestic refineries will generally maintain stable operations with limited start - stop scales. Regional production will vary, with Shandong seeing a significant increase in diesel output, while the overall independent refinery production shows a slight decrease in gasoline and a slight increase in diesel. Demand: The gasoline market will enter a new replenishment cycle, with strong summer demand and concentrated delivery of previous orders, resulting in a supply - short situation. Diesel demand will remain weak due to low rigid demand and limited replenishment motivation, leading to price pressure and an imbalance between production and sales. Inventory: Shandong's gasoline refinery inventory is expected to decline due to order delivery and strong demand, while diesel inventory pressure will increase due to rising production and low consumption. Price: Next week, there will still be downward pressure on gasoline and diesel wholesale prices, but the decline in gasoline prices may slow down due to the peak season, and diesel prices will continue to fall. Retail profits of gasoline and diesel are expected to rise slightly [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The report provides detailed price data for gasoline and diesel in different regions of China, including national, Shandong independent refineries, and various regional markets. It shows price changes over different time intervals (year - on - year, week - on - week, month - on - month, and day - on - day) [11]. 3.2.2 Profit - Refinery profits: Major refineries' refining profit is 520 yuan/ton, independent refineries' is 179 yuan/ton, and Shandong independent refineries' is 314 yuan/ton. Gasoline profit is 603 yuan/ton, and diesel profit is 428 yuan/ton. There are also corresponding profit changes over different time periods [13]. 3.2.3 Supply - **开工率**: The overall refinery operating rate in China is 71.6%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points. Major refineries' operating rate remains stable, while independent refineries' drops by 1.4 percentage points. Shandong independent refineries' operating rate is 48.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points [27]. - **检修计划**: As of July 11, 2025, the total refinery maintenance capacity in China is 69 million tons/year, a decrease of 2.5 million tons compared to the previous week [34]. - **产量**: Major refineries' gasoline and diesel production remains stable, while independent refineries' gasoline and diesel production both decline. Shandong independent refineries' gasoline production is 484,000 tons, a 1.1% increase, and diesel production is 931,000 tons, a 2.2% increase [35][39]. 3.2.4 Sales - Gasoline sales of independent refineries and Shandong independent refineries both increase, and the sales - to - production ratio also rises. Diesel sales of independent refineries remain stable, and Shandong independent refineries' sales increase slightly. The diesel sales - to - production ratio also shows a slight increase [43]. 3.2.5 Demand - The report uses various indicators such as consumption index, flight schedules, PMI, and congestion index to analyze gasoline and diesel demand. However, specific demand trends need to be further analyzed based on these indicators [58][60][62]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Commercial inventories of gasoline and diesel both increase. Gasoline inventory is 11.01 million tons, a 1.1% increase, and diesel inventory is 13.84 million tons, a 0.3% increase. Independent refineries' gasoline and diesel inventories slightly decrease. Social gasoline inventory increases and diesel inventory decreases. Shandong's gasoline refinery inventory is expected to decline next week, while diesel inventory is expected to increase [71][74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector. The overall market is characterized by volatility, with different commodities affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic policies, and geopolitical events. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, testing the 3900 - point support and confirming the breakthrough direction of the triangular consolidation. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has eased but remains cautious. It is advisable to go long on the TL contract on dips and pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities for the TF contract [22]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The bullish factors have limited impact, and the market is under pressure. It is recommended to hold a small number of short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [26]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Domestically, it is likely to move sideways at a low level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, and sell put options at a low level [30]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and short on rallies, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price has declined, and the market is expected to continue to fall. It is recommended to go long on the 03 contract on dips and short on rallies, conduct 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [38]. - **Hogs**: The short - term pressure has improved, but the overall supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to hold short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [41]. - **Peanuts**: The market has risen and then fallen. It is recommended to short the 01 contract on rallies, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [44]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. It is recommended to go long on the near - term contract on dips and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [48]. - **Apples**: The inventory is low, and the fundamentals are strong. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales are good, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to expect the US cotton to oscillate in a range and the Zhengzhou cotton to be strong in the short term, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [56]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The market sentiment is volatile, and the steel price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to expect a weak - oscillating trend, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread on rallies, and stay on the sidelines for options [58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is oscillating at the bottom, waiting for the start of winter storage. It is recommended to expect the coking coal to oscillate, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [60]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to take a bearish view. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost provides support, but the demand is suppressed. It is recommended to expect the market to oscillate at the bottom, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level, and silver may remain strong. It is recommended to go long on gold on dips, go long on silver cautiously on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options for silver [68]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are following the strength of gold and silver. It is recommended to go long on platinum on dips, stay on the sidelines for palladium, conduct long platinum - short palladium arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options for platinum [70]. - **Copper**: The short - term profit - taking of funds has occurred, but the long - term upward trend continues. It is recommended to take profits on long positions on rallies, pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities, and stay on the sidelines for options [74]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to be under pressure before the expiration of warehouse receipts. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [78]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The price has fallen due to the departure of funds before the interest - rate meeting. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [82]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price has fallen with the aluminum price due to macro - expectations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term, pay attention to the narrowing of the AD - AL spread during the aluminum price correction, and stay on the sidelines for options [84]. - **Zinc**: The market is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to hold short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [87]. - **Lead**: The price has risen and then fallen. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and stay on the sidelines, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [90]. - **Nickel**: The price may still face downward pressure after the rebound. It is recommended to expect a downward - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [91]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is following the nickel price and oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to expect a low - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The Shihezi silicon plants have not significantly reduced production, and the short - term trend is weak. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon, and sell out - of - the - money call options [98]. - **Polysilicon**: With the establishment of the platform company, it is recommended to buy on dips. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and use the strategy of buying both call and put options [100]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has returned to the spotlight, and the price continues to correct. It is recommended to buy after the mid - term correction, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the 2605 contract on rallies [102]. - **Tin**: The price has retreated from a high level, waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting. It is recommended to wait and stay on the sidelines for options [105]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The MSK WK52 price has slightly decreased, and the market is under pressure. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions in the EC2602 contract and conduct 2 - 4 cash - and - carry arbitrage and take profits on rallies and then stay on the sidelines [108]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oversupply situation is difficult to change, and the oil price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for gasoline, be bearish on diesel, and expect a weak contango for crude oil. Stay on the sidelines for options [110]. - **Asphalt**: There are signs of winter storage, and the price is in a dilemma. It is recommended to expect a narrow - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2601 contract [113]. - **Fuel Oil**: Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils have weak fundamentals. It is recommended to expect a weak - oscillating trend, have a neutral view on low - sulfur cracking and a bearish view on high - sulfur cracking, and stay on the sidelines for options [116]. - **Natural Gas**: The LNG price has strong resistance to decline, and the HH price continues to correct. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, sell call options for TTF, sell out - of - the - money call options and buy out - of - the - money put options for HH [118]. - **PX & PTA**: PX supply remains abundant, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend, conduct TA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call and put options [120]. - **BZ & EB**: Pure benzene supply is loose, and the styrene basis has weakened. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [123]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory has a de - stocking pressure, and the price is falling. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [127]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling both call and put options [129]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: The supply - demand situation is relatively loose. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling both call and put options [132]. - **Propylene**: The inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [133]. - **Plastic PP**: PE inventory has marginally increased. It is recommended to hold short positions in the L2601 contract, stay on the sidelines for the PP 2601 contract, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [136]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is weak. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [141]. - **PVC**: The price continues to decline. It is recommended to expect a weak - rebound trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [144]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has increased while demand has decreased, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, pay attention to the 05 contract short - soda - long - glass spread opportunity, and stay on the sidelines for options [147]. - **Glass**: The price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, pay attention to the 05 contract short - soda - long - glass strategy opportunity, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [150]. - **Methanol**: The price is declining weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 05 contract long opportunity, conduct 5 - 9 cash - and - carry arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [154]. - **Urea**: Low - price transactions are acceptable. It is recommended to expect a weak trend in the short and medium terms, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [157]. - **Pulp**: Demand has not improved, and the market is weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [160]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can go long slightly near the previous low. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and pay attention to 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage. Stay on the sidelines for options [163]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply pressure remains, and the market has limited rebound momentum. It is recommended to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the OP2602 - C - 4200 option [166]. - **Natural Rubber**: The growth rate of the predicted natural rubber production in October by the rubber alliance has slowed down. It is recommended to reduce positions in the RU01 contract, stay on the sidelines for the RU 05 contract, hold long positions in the NR 02 contract, conduct RU2605 - NR2605 arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [170]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The crude - oil cost support has been declining. It is recommended to go long slightly in the BR 02 contract, stay on the sidelines for BR2602 - NR2602 arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [174].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oils and fats market lacks clear drivers and shows large intraday fluctuations, generally maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to consider low - buying, high - selling interval operations for unilateral trading, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [4][7][9] 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: For soybeans, the 2601 closing price was 8190 with a decline of 40. In different regions, spot prices varied. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin was 280, 260, and 160 respectively, with no change in the basis. For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 8648 with a decline of 58. Spot prices and basis also had corresponding changes. For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 9393 with a decline of 109, and the basis in relevant regions had different values [2] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybeans was 206 with a rise of 8, that of palm oil was 20 with a rise of 16, and that of rapeseed oil was 226 with a decline of 2 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 contract of Y - P was - 458 with a rise of 18, OI - Y was 1203 with a decline of 69, OI - P was 745 with a decline of 51, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.89 with a decline of 0.07 [2] - **Import Profits**: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the 1 - month shipment was 1039, and the on - disk profit was - 180. The FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the 1 - month shipment was 1073, and the on - disk profit was - 1130 [2] - **Weekly Commercial Oils and Fats Inventory**: In the 49th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory was 116.3 tons (last week: 117.9 tons, same period last year: 96.4 tons), palm oil was 68.4 tons (last week: 65.4 tons, same period last year: 53.9 tons), and rapeseed oil was 35.3 tons (last week: 36.8 tons, same period last year: 46.1 tons) [2] Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: As of December 7, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 90.3%, compared with 86.0% last week, 94.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 89.8% [4] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. As of December 5, the national key - area commercial inventory was 68.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.02 tons (4.62%). The origin's quotation was stable, the import profit inversion narrowed to around - 200. There was a rumor of a near - month purchase. The basis was stable with a slight decline. It was recommended to adopt high - selling and low - buying operations and pay attention to the MPOB report [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. The soybean crushing volume last week was 205.58 tons, and the operating rate was 56.55%. As of December 5, the national key - area commercial inventory was 116.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58 tons (1.34%). The inventory reached an inflection point. The basis was stable with a slight decline, and the market trading was light. It was expected to maintain a volatile trend, and one could consider light - position buying on dips [4][7] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated and closed down by over 1%. The rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas last week was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of December 5, the coastal inventory was 35.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation was stable around 1100 dollars, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1000. The domestic supply was expected to improve. The basis was stable with a slight decline, and the demand was lackluster. It was recommended to adopt high - selling and low - buying operations [7] Third Part: Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Consider short - term low - buying, high - selling interval operations due to the lack of drivers and large intraday fluctuations in the oils and fats market [9] - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oils and fats. The time span of the data is from 2016 - 2025, and the data sources are Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][16]