Report Title - Zinc: Consumption Weakens, Upward Pressure Remains [1] Researcher Information - Researcher: Chen Hansong - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The zinc market faces a situation where consumption is turning weak, and there is still upward pressure on prices. The market is influenced by factors such as the supply and demand of zinc ore and refined zinc, as well as inventory changes. [5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Logic - **Supply and Demand in the Industry** - **Mine End**: Recently, northern mines have gradually entered seasonal shutdowns. Although domestic smelters have reduced production, the shortage of zinc concentrate persists, and processing fees continue to decline. The import loss of zinc concentrate has continued to widen this week, and smelters mainly purchase domestic zinc ore. The trading of imported zinc concentrate in the market has been relatively quiet this week. Currently, the quotes for ordinary zinc concentrate are mostly around $50 - $60 per dry ton. Although the decline rate of imported zinc concentrate processing fees has slowed down, the overall trend is still downward. [5] - **Smelting End**: In December, some domestic smelters will increase production to meet the annual production target, and the commissioning of Kunlun Zinc Industry will also contribute to the output. However, considering the continuous decline in processing fees, which compresses the profits of smelters to a certain extent, smelters with higher marginal costs have turned into losses. In December, domestic smelters may have low production enthusiasm due to profit or loss issues, and the monthly output may decline compared to the previous month. [5] - **Consumption**: Domestic zinc consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. [5] - **Inventory Data**: As of December 4, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 140,300 tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons compared to November 27 and a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to December 1. [5] - **Price Trend**: Recently, due to the expected production cuts by smelters, Shanghai zinc has been running strongly. This week, zinc prices have risen rapidly due to the influence of the capital side. However, considering that the expected production cuts by smelters have basically been digested, domestic consumption is weakening, and the export window is closed, there is still upward pressure on Shanghai zinc prices. [5] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Profitable long positions should be closed. Aggressive investors can try short positions at high prices with a light position, while conservative investors are advised to wait and see. Pay attention to the actual production cuts of domestic smelters. [5] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. [5] Chapter 2: Market Data - The content mainly lists some market data indicators, including spot premiums, basis in major consumption areas (LME cash - 3M), absolute prices and monthly spreads, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, bonded area inventory, LME inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, warrants, and LME inventory by region, but no specific data analysis is provided. [7][13][16] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - **Production** - In January - September 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 9.3609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 659,100 tons or 7.57%. Among them, overseas zinc concentrate production was 6.2959 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 518,100 tons or 8.97%, and Chinese zinc concentrate production was 3.065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 141,000 tons or 4.82%. [26] - In October, domestic zinc concentrate production was 330,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% and a year - on - year increase of 12.33%. It is expected that domestic zinc concentrate production in November will decrease by 2.09% month - on - month to 323,900 tons. [26] - **Inventory** - As of November, according to SMM data, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters has increased by 0.48 days compared to the same period last year to 20.8 days, but the raw material inventory of smelters has been decreasing month by month recently. [26][41] - According to SMM data, the inventory of zinc concentrate in major domestic ports has decreased by 20,000 tons month - on - month to 300,000 tons. [26] Zinc Ore Import - In October 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 340,900 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% (164,500 physical tons) compared to September and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate was 4.3489 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59%. In October, the top three countries of origin for imports were Peru (95,700 physical tons, accounting for 28.1%), Australia (49,800 physical tons, accounting for 14.6%), and Russia (32,400 physical tons, accounting for 9.5%). In November, on one hand, some zinc concentrates affected by periodic shipments may arrive in a concentrated manner, and the import volume of zinc concentrate is expected to recover; on the other hand, since October, although the internal - external price ratio is still poor, the winter storage demand of smelters is strong, and the processing fees of domestic zinc concentrate have dropped rapidly. Some smelters have started to purchase imported zinc concentrate to ensure raw materials, and the import volume of zinc concentrate in November is expected to recover compared to October. [28] Domestic Zinc Ore Supply - Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and there is an expected decrease in the import of zinc concentrate. It is expected that the supply of domestic zinc concentrate in November may decrease. [40] Zinc Ore Processing Fees - In November, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 3,000 yuan per ton. On December 5, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was reduced by 200 yuan to 1,850 yuan per metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index was reduced by 3.5 dollars per dry ton to $57.75 per dry ton. [45] Global Refined Zinc Production and Consumption - From January to September 2025, according to data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, global refined zinc production was 10.2938 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 48,900 tons or 0.48%; global refined zinc consumption was 10.1353 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22,800 tons or 0.23%. From January to September 2025, the global refined zinc surplus was 158,500 tons. From January to September, China's refined zinc production was 5.224 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.03% or 343,000 tons; overseas refined zinc production was 5.0698 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.48% or 294,100 tons. [49] - In September, global refined zinc production was 1.1952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. In September, global refined zinc demand was 1.1749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The global refined zinc surplus was 20,300 tons. Among them, China's refined zinc production in September was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.69%; overseas refined zinc production was 565,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.78%. [49] Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - **Smelter Operation**: In October, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 90.16%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 91.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14%; the operating rate of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 93.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25%; the operating rate of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 80.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%. [52] - **Production**: According to SMM data, in October, SMM's domestic refined zinc production increased by 2.85% month - on - month to 617,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. It is expected that domestic refined zinc production in November will be 611,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94% and a year - on - year increase of 19.93%. [53] Zinc Ingot Import and Export - In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,800 tons or 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 277,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 26.63%. In October, the export volume of refined zinc was 8,500 tons, and the net import of refined zinc in October was 10,300 tons. In December, domestic refined zinc production is expected to continue to decrease. Considering that the export window may open, there is an expected increase in refined zinc exports, which will alleviate the domestic refined zinc surplus to a certain extent. [56][57] Downstream Consumption - The report lists some downstream consumption - related data indicators, including the operating rate of primary processing enterprises (such as galvanizing, die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide), inventory of primary processing enterprises, real estate construction data, land transaction premium rate, real estate sales data, infrastructure investment data, domestic automobile production and export data, and domestic white - goods production data, but no specific data analysis is provided. [60][67][78][82][85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market is expected to rise steadily with its center of gravity moving upward due to weekend positive news such as the moderate expansion of securities firms' capital space and leverage limits, and the reduction of risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments, which can boost market confidence and guide long - term funds into the market. Although there is significant upward pressure, the re - gathered confidence may lead to an upward challenge. In the futures market, on Friday, the stock index futures showed a simultaneous increase in volume and price, with a significant increase in positions and a narrowing of the discount, indicating that futures investors are optimistic about the future market. IM and IC are expected to be stronger than the broader market in the future [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Weekly Important News - On the evening of December 5th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, discussing the implementation of the important consensus reached at the leaders' meeting in Busan and the phone call on November 24th, and having in - depth and constructive exchanges on future practical cooperation and resolving concerns in the economic and trade field [3]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice on adjusting risk factors for insurance companies' related business. It reduced risk factors for long - held index component stocks like CSI 300 and Sci - tech Innovation Board stocks, and lowered premium and reserve risk factors for export credit and overseas investment insurance. If all insurance funds increase their allocation to corresponding stocks, it may bring over 100 billion yuan in incremental funds to the stock market [3]. - Wu Qing proposed to moderately expand the capital space and leverage limits of securities firms and shift from price competition to value - based competition [3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public opinions on the "Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Listed Companies (Draft for Public Comment)", which includes clear requirements for market value management, cash dividends, and share repurchases to enhance the investment value of listed companies [3]. - The CEO of AMD is ready to pay a 15% tax to the US government to export MI308 chips to China [3]. - Jinli Permanent Magnet, Zhongke Sanhuan, and Ningbo Yunsheng have obtained general export licenses [3]. 3.1.2 Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the market bottomed out and rebounded, with trading volume hitting bottom before the index, showing the pattern of "low volume indicates low price". On Friday, insurance and securities sectors boosted the index, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points, and most stocks rising, indicating high market sentiment. The key to the market's strength on Friday lies in the positive news for the financial sector over the weekend. Attention should be paid to whether the market will open high and close low on Monday and whether investors will cash out [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral trading: Buy on dips. - Arbitrage: Implement the cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy of going long on IM/IC 2512 and short on ETFs. - Options: Adopt the double - buy strategy [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 A - share Index Performance - Last week, the market first declined and then rose, with large - cap indexes performing better than small - and medium - cap indexes. The CSI 300 rose 1.28%, the SSE 50 rose 1.09%, the CSI 500 rose 0.94%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.11% [19]. 3.2.2 A - share Trading Volume - Last week, the trading volume in the A - share market slightly decreased to 8.4 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume down 2.4% from the previous week. The lackluster performance of the index for most of the week and year - end effects were the main reasons. The trading volume proportion of major indexes remained stable, except for the CSI 300, whose trading volume proportion increased on Monday and Friday [24]. 3.2.3 A - share Stock Price Movements - The number of rising stocks significantly decreased last week. From December 2nd to 4th, the proportion of rising stocks was only about 27%, reaching a low point in the past 10 days. On December 5th, market sentiment was high, and the proportion of rising stocks reached the highest point since October 22nd. For most of last week, A - share market sentiment cooled down. From December 2nd to 4th, the number of limit - up stocks significantly decreased. In particular, on the 4th, the proportion of stocks that had reached the limit - up was only 0.7%, slightly higher than that on November 21st when the market tumbled [28]. 3.2.4 A - share Margin Trading - Last week, the margin trading balance in the A - share market remained at 2.67 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.57% of the A - share free - float market capitalization. On December 1st, when the market rose, the net margin buying exceeded 10 billion yuan, followed by small fluctuations. The proportion of margin buying in the A - share trading volume dropped below 10%. At the end of the year, the margin trading balance shows a cyclical decline, while the proportion of margin buying shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding [34]. 3.2.5 A - share Industry Performance - The report presents the weekly price changes and popularity of various industries, but specific industry - by - industry analysis is not provided [36]. 3.2.6 A - share Industry Fund Flow - The report shows the weekly net inflow of funds and net margin buying for different industries, but specific industry - by - industry analysis is not provided [38]. 3.2.7 A - share Market Financing - The report shows the financing amounts and the number of companies for IPOs and private placements, but specific analysis is not provided [41]. 3.2.8 Stock Index Futures Basis Changes - The report shows the basis changes of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures, but specific analysis is not provided [44]. 3.2.9 Stock Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - The report shows the trading volume and open interest changes of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures, but specific analysis is not provided [48]. 3.2.10 Comparison of Stock Index Futures and Spot Trading Volume - The report shows the comparison of trading volumes between stock index futures and spot markets for IM, IC, IF, and IH, but specific analysis is not provided [50]. 3.2.11 Stock Index Futures Main Contract Open Interest - The report shows the net short positions of the top five and top ten holders of stock index futures, but specific analysis is not provided [53].

多晶硅：交割品牌增加，短期偏弱 工业硅：石河子天气污染橙色预警，短期偏强 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询证号：Z0020351 目录 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 工业硅基本面数据跟踪 | 6 | | 第三章 | 多晶硅基本面数据跟踪 | 17 | 多晶硅综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 从供需来看，12月硅片排产环比11月降低7GW至52GW，折算多晶硅需求约10.4万吨。12月多晶硅产量11.2万吨 ，多晶硅延续累库趋势。当前多晶硅上游库存29万吨左右，下游原料库存约15万吨，仓单及贸易商库存约4万吨。 目前硅片、电池市场存在一定压力，一方面是明年需求淡季预期下囤货风险增加，另一方面是部分厂家年底有现金 回流需求，短期价格承压。广州期货交易所新增东方希望、晶诺作为交割品牌，前期由于仓单不足推动的价格上涨被对 ...

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Low Inventory and Marginal Decrease in Supply Lead to Strong and Volatile Lead Prices [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a supply - demand imbalance. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, with domestic and imported ore markets facing different challenges. The smelting end has both production increases and decreases due to maintenance and other factors. The consumption end, especially the automotive battery sector, has improved. With low inventory and increased smelting costs, short - term lead prices may oscillate strongly in a range. Traders are advised to hold profitable long positions and be cautious of macro - factors, while waiting on arbitrage and options [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee is 300 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported lead concentrate weekly processing fee is - 145 dollars/dry ton. The lead concentrate market is stable, with imported ore remaining tight. There are disputes in the 2026 long - term contract price negotiation. The market circulation of domestic ore is scarce as most smelters have pre - ordered fourth - quarter supplies [4]. - **Smelting**: The SMM three - province primary lead smelter operating rate is 65.92%, a 0.60% week - on - week decline. Some smelters in different regions have production changes due to maintenance. The SMM four - province recycled lead weekly operating rate is 48.37%, a 0.13% decline [4]. - **Consumption**: The SMM five - province lead battery enterprise weekly comprehensive operating rate is 74.46%, a 1.07% week - on - week increase. The automotive battery market has improved due to year - end production targets and approaching peak seasons [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 4, the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory is 23,600 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons from November 27 and 7,100 tons from December 1 [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable long positions and beware of macro - factors; wait on arbitrage and options [4]. 1.2 - 1.5 - These sections list various data related to lead, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [5][8][11][14] 2. Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Include data on global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, import profits and losses, and domestic lead concentrate total supply and mine operating rates [19][23] 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Recycled - Involve the price of lead - containing waste materials, waste battery prices, and recycled lead smelter raw material inventory [31] 3. Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 Global Refined Lead - Covers global refined lead balance, production, and demand [38] 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Includes import and export profits and losses, volumes, and net exports [45] 3.3 - 3.4 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise - Involve primary lead smelting enterprise profits, including processing fees, smelting profits, and production data such as operating rates and output [46][49] 3.5 - 3.6 Recycled Lead - Include recycled lead enterprise costs, profits, and supply data such as operating rates and output [52][61] 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Composed of domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead output, recycled lead output, and refined lead net exports [65] 4. Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 Lead Battery - Contains lead battery enterprise operating rates, dealer and enterprise finished - product inventory, and import and export volumes [72] 4.2 Lead Alloy and Its Plates - Involve lead alloy prices and import and export data of lead alloys, lead plates, and other lead plates [75] 4.3 - 4.4 Other Demand Areas - Include data on the automotive industry (production, exports, and production structure), and production data of motorcycles, communication construction, and power projects [79][82]

研究所 农产品研发报告 10 月以来马来 CPO 现货价震荡偏弱运行，截止到 12 月 3 日价格维持在 4100 林吉特/ 吨，精棕从 1100 美元震荡回落至 1000 美元附近，近日有所上涨至 1040 美元，马印价差降至 15 美元附近，随着棕榈油逐渐进入减产季，产地现货价下跌空间将较为有限，或继续震荡 小幅上涨。 第二部分 基本面情况 | 研究员：张盼盼 | | 棕榈油洪水冲击与偏高库存下的博弈 | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货从业证号： | | | | F03119783 | | | | 投资咨询证号： | | 第一部分 目录 | | Z0022908 | 一、 | 马棕四季度产量表现较好，库存偏高去库缓慢 | | 联系方式： | 二、 | 四季度印棕增量空间有限，印棕库存持续偏低 | | : zhangpanpan_qh@chinastock.c | 三、 | 印尼生柴政策预期偏好，销区存采购增量 | | om.cn | 四、 | 总结 | 一、 马棕四季度产量表现较好，库存偏高去库缓慢 专题报告 2025 年 12 月 01 日 1 / 10 研究所 农产品研发报告 整体 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market shows a pattern of decreasing supply in China and increasing supply overseas, with price fluctuations and inventory accumulation. The synthetic rubber market, especially the butadiene rubber segment, has sufficient supply and a decreasing inventory trend. The downstream consumption of the rubber sector shows a phenomenon where the farther from rubber, the stronger the data growth, while the closer data has not yet stabilized [3][35]. - The report provides trading strategies for rubber futures, including holding short - positions in RU01, NR01, and BR02 contracts, holding the spread position of RU2601 - NR2601, and adopting a wait - and - see approach for options [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Spot Prices**: The average price of natural rubber in the RMB market has a narrow adjustment. The average price of Shanghai full - latex is 14,845 yuan/ton, and the average price of STR20 mixed rubber in the Shandong market is 14,543 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in North China is 10,000 yuan/ton, and the average price is 10,030 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: For natural rubber, domestic supply decreases while overseas supply increases. The Yunnan production area has stopped tapping, and Hainan's output is affected by rainfall. Overseas, the weather in northeastern Thailand is normal, while the southern part and the Vietnamese production area are affected by rainfall. The average operating load of domestic high - cis butadiene rubber plants is 71.05%, with the Zhenhua New Materials plant increasing its load and the Maoming Petrochemical plant under maintenance [3]. - **Demand**: The price of natural rubber fluctuates within a range and moves downward. Downstream buyers make rigid - demand purchases at low prices, but the overall purchasing enthusiasm of factories is average due to the bearish expectation. The operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises is 62.99%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao is 475,000 tons, an increase of 12,600 tons or 2.72% from the previous period. The general trade inventory is 400,500 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons or 3.14%. The butadiene rubber inventory continues to decline, with a decrease of 8.02% [3]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Trading**: Hold short - positions in the RU01 contract with a stop - loss at the recent high of 15,270 points; hold short - positions in the NR01 contract with a stop - loss at the recent high of 12,105 points; hold short - positions in the BR02 contract with a stop - loss at the recent high of 10,600 points [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the spread position of RU2601 - NR2601 (1 lot to 1 lot) at + 3085 points, and set a stop - loss at the recent low of + 3065 points [4]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3.3 Thailand Rubber Situation - **Price and Relationship with RU**: Since December, the price of Thai latex has dropped to 55.5 baht/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 25.5%, with the decline narrowing and two consecutive months of marginal strengthening, which is bullish for the RU unilateral position. The "divergence" time point with RU is around March 2023. In November, the price of Thai cup lump dropped to 48.2 baht/kg, and the latex - cup lump spread is + 7.28 baht/kg, a year - on - year weakening of 2.69 baht/kg, still in a 13 - month marginal weakening trend. The "divergence" time point with RU is around March 2022 [7][12]. - **Rainfall**: Since November, Thailand has experienced severe floods due to heavy rainfall. Last week, the weighted rainfall for natural rubber production reached 39.01 mm/day, a record high since March 2011. However, this week, the rainfall has rapidly dropped to 1.05 mm/day, and the impact of abnormal weather is rapidly fading, with the market starting to trade on the expectation of increased production after heavy rain [17]. 3.4 Climate Data - In November, the Southern Oscillation Index rose to 12.5 points for two consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 6.0 points; from September to November, the El Niño index cooled to - 0.6°C for six consecutive months, a year - on - year cooling of 0.3°C. The climate data has fallen back, which is bearish [21]. 3.5 African Rubber as a Substitute for NR - African rubber will be a substitute for the NR contract. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will announce the premium or discount (most likely a discount). If the discount is large, it will not attract sellers for delivery, having a small impact on the existing contract. If the discount is small or at par, it will attract a large amount of delivery due to delivery profit, thus having a greater impact on the current pricing of the NR contract [26]. 3.6 Rubber Downstream Consumption - **Stock Index**: As of December 2025, the CSI 1000 Index has fallen to 729 points for two consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 41.6% [35]. - **Automobile Industry**: In November 2025, the European automobile industry index rebounded slightly to - 29.7 points, a year - on - year increase of 39.9 points, and has been increasing year - on - year for five consecutive months [35]. - **Rubber and Plastics Industry Electricity Consumption**: In September 2025, the electricity consumption of the domestic rubber and plastics industry increased for four consecutive months, reaching 17.71 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%, the highest since January 2024 [35]. - **Tire Production**: In October 2025, the cumulative production of domestic and foreign tires increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [35]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber Supply and Profit - **Butadiene Profit**: According to Longzhong Information data, during this period, the profit of the C4 extraction process is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton from the previous period; the profit of the oxidative dehydrogenation process is - 1709 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous period. The price of raw material naphtha has risen, increasing the cost pressure on butadiene, and the price of Sinopec's butadiene has remained stable, reducing the extraction process profit. The oxidative dehydrogenation and coal - to - oil processes have increased their process profits due to the firm supply price [44]. - **Butadiene Rubber Production Profit**: According to Longzhong Information data, during this period, the theoretical production cost of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, the ex - factory price and market price have slightly increased, and the theoretical production profit generally remains at a high level [44]. 3.8 Synthetic Rubber Inventory - As of December 3, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 32,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons or 0.34% from the previous period. It is expected that the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises next week will be 32,000 tons, a slight decrease from this period. After the hype atmosphere of raw materials and natural rubber cools down, the premium space in the butadiene market is expected to narrow, and the inventory level is expected to gradually shift from the factory end to the middle and lower reaches [52]. 3.9 Synthetic Rubber Apparent Consumption - In October, the apparent consumption of butadiene decreased for two consecutive months to 490,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, with the growth rate narrowing. Since September 2024, there has been a trend of incremental growth. In October, the apparent consumption of butadiene rubber increased for two consecutive months to 142,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%, and three consecutive months of marginal growth. Since October 2024, there has been a trend of incremental growth [69]. 3.10 Natural Rubber Supply - In October, the total production of natural rubber in the ANRPC increased to 1.144 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, with the growth rate narrowing; the total export volume increased to 826,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%, and the growth rate has been narrowing for four consecutive months [78]. 3.11 Natural Rubber Inventory - This week, the futures warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber has increased. As of Thursday this week, the total futures warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber is 45,700 tons, an increase of 4300 tons from the previous period. The total futures warehouse receipt inventory of 20 - rubber is 56,500 tons, an increase of 5200 tons from the previous period. As of the week of November 28, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao is 475,000 tons, an increase of 12,600 tons or 2.72% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in the bonded area is 74,500 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 0.54%, and the general trade inventory is 400,500 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons or 3.14% [83][84]. 3.12 Mixed Rubber Basis - In October, domestic mixed rubber imports were 261,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%, and a marginal decrease for three consecutive months, which is bullish for the mixed rubber basis. In October, global automobile sales increased to 8.64 million vehicles for two consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, and a marginal increase for nine consecutive months, which is bullish for the mixed rubber basis. In October, the domestic manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%; the US manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2% for two consecutive months, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The growth rate of the Sino - US manufacturing PMI has declined marginally for two consecutive months, which is bullish for the mixed rubber basis. In October, domestic commercial vehicle production decreased to 364,000 vehicles, and passenger vehicle production increased to 2.995 million vehicles for three consecutive months. In October, South Korean commercial vehicle production decreased to 18,000 vehicles for two consecutive months, and passenger vehicle production decreased to 285,000 vehicles. The Sino - Korean automobile production has increased marginally for two consecutive months, which is bearish for the mixed rubber basis [93]. 3.13 Tire Consumption - As of December 4, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 44.95 days, a decrease of 0.28 days from the previous period and an increase of 5.38 days year - on - year; the average inventory turnover days of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 39.51 days, a decrease of 0.44 days from the previous period and a decrease of 1.79 days year - on - year [94]. - In the semi - steel tire market, the market trading is weak during the month - end period. The all - season tire market is weakly stable, and at the end of the month, distributors have replenishment needs according to the task volume, with general channel sales. The snow tire market has sufficient supply, and the demand needs further improvement. In the all - steel tire market, the market trading is dull, affected by the seasonal off - season, the market demand has further weakened. With relatively sufficient market supply, the focus is on digesting existing inventory, and the purchase enthusiasm is average. The market transaction price is stable with a downward trend, and some merchants have promotional activities according to their own inventory [100].

目录 双焦：震荡运行 等待冬储启动 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号：F03119918 投资咨询证号：Z0022905 2025年12月05日 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 逻辑分析 现货面，市场心态仍偏弱，本周焦煤价格普遍下跌，不过有个别煤种探涨；山西个别煤矿因年度生产任务即将完成自行减 产，预计到中下旬此种情况会增多。对于煤炭而言，安全与保供需要平衡，在保供的要求下，会加强煤炭生产组织和运输 保障，但在安全的制约下煤炭产量释放空间有限。后期焦钢企业对于原料还有冬储的需求，叠加年底部分煤矿完成生产任 务会有减产检修，预计盘面继续向下空间有限，短期延续震荡运行，可等待盘面出现企稳迹象后逢低轻仓试多远月合约。 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 数据来源：Mysteel 银河期货 单边：预计盘面继续向下空间有限，短期延续震荡运行，可等待盘面出现企稳迹象后逢低轻仓试多远月合约。 套利：观望。 期权：观望。 (观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据） 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 ...

Report Title and Analyst Information - The report is titled "Cotton Weekly Report: New Cotton Sales are Fast, Cotton Prices are Oscillating Strongly" and is written by researcher Liu Qiannan from Galaxy Futures' Agricultural Products Research Department [1] Report's Core View - The international market expects U.S. cotton to continue to oscillate within a range, while the domestic market anticipates that cotton prices will oscillate strongly. Overall, short - term cotton prices are expected to oscillate, with the current good cotton sales providing support [8][29][45] 1. International Market Analysis U.S. Cotton Market - The U.S. cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is expected to oscillate within a range. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 1.7585 million tons, accounting for 57.3% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 12% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 85.7%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82%, 0.5 percentage points lower year - on - year but increasing quarter - on - quarter [8] - As of the week of October 30, 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton weekly contracts totaled 18,500 tons, a 39% weekly decrease and a 51% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks; weekly shipments were 33,200 tons, a 16% weekly decrease and a 7% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [8] - As of November 28, the number of un - priced seller contracts on the ON - CALL 2603 contract increased by 634 to 21,716, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. The total number of un - priced seller contracts in the 25/26 season increased by 1001 to 39,293, equivalent to 890,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week [8] Brazil - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics predicts that the total output of the main producing region will drop to 2.58 million tons in 2026 due to a reduction in the sown area to 1.43 million hectares, mainly because of rising cotton production costs and poor crop yields this season. The Brazilian Cotton Producers Association predicts the 2026 national total output to be 3.829 million tons [8] India - The Indian Cotton Association released its first supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 season, forecasting a production of 30.5 million bales (170 kg per bale), a decrease of 740,000 bales compared to the 2024/25 season. Consumption is expected to be 30 million bales, a decrease of 1.4 million bales from the previous season. Exports are forecasted at 1.7 million bales, and imports at 4.5 million bales, indicating that India is expected to become a net importer in the 2025/26 season [8] Global - According to the latest November global cotton production and sales forecast by the USDA, the global total cotton production in November was 26.14 million tons, an increase of 520,000 tons month - on - month; total consumption increased by 11,000 tons to 25.88 million tons; ending stocks increased by 607,000 tons to 16.53 million tons [8] 2. Domestic Market Logic Analysis Supply Side - As of 24:00 on December 3, 2025, the cumulative official inspection was 20,147,916 bales, totaling 4,548,335 tons, a 16.88% year - on - year increase. The cumulative official inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 4,474,521 tons, a 18.34% year - on - year increase [29] - As of November 28, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 4.1794 million tons, an increase of 379,300 tons (9.98% increase) week - on - week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 3.6164 million tons, a 373,900 - ton (11.53% increase) week - on - week increase [29] Demand Side - As of November 27, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 2.423 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, an increase of 1.769 million tons compared to the average of the past four years [29] - As of December 4, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.3%, a 0.31% decrease from the previous week. The raw material inventory decreased slightly, and the yarn inventory of spinning mills in the main areas was 30.2 days, a 0.67% weekly increase [29] Overall Outlook - The supply side has a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the short - term supply remains loose. The demand side has orders in the off - season, and the overall performance is average. Considering that the previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, and the current cotton sales are good, it is expected that the short - term cotton price will oscillate strongly [29] 3. Option Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.7094, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.8660. The trading volume of both calls and puts decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [43] 4. Futures Trading Strategy Trading Logic - The supply side has a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the short - term supply is loose. The demand side's orders are generally small and scattered. Considering that the previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, it is expected that short - term cotton prices will oscillate [45] Specific Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is expected that the future trend of U.S. cotton will mostly oscillate within a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate [47] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [47] 5. Weekly Data Tracking Mid - stream Situation - Data on the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, all - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn inventory days, and grey fabric inventory days are presented, reflecting the mid - stream production and inventory situation [54] Cotton Inventory - Data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory are presented, showing the overall inventory situation of the cotton market [56] Basis Spread - Data on the basis spread between cotton futures and spot, including the basis spread of cotton in January, May, and September, and the basis spread of U.S. cotton, are presented, reflecting the relationship between futures and spot prices [59]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Apple Weekly Report: Low Cold Storage Fruit Volume Supports Fruit Prices [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 [1] - Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014425 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis Spot Analysis - This week, the overall transaction of late Fuji apples remained light. In the producing areas, orders from merchants were limited. In the western producing areas, small - quantity shipments of polar fruits from fruit farmers were the main source, and some merchants supplied the market with their self - stored goods. In Shandong, the foreign trade channel purchasing slowed down, and the transaction of small fruits decreased. In the sales areas, the number of incoming trucks increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere was still light, and there was a slight backlog in the transfer warehouses. Citrus fruits affected the sales of apples [7]. - In Shandong, the overall transaction was slow, and the price of fruit farmers' goods remained stable. The foreign trade channel continued to look for goods but at a slower pace, mainly for 65 - 75 small fruits. The ex - warehouse price of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods in Qixia was 3.7 - 4.5 yuan/jin, with few transactions; the ex - warehouse price of 65 and 70 small fruits in Penglai was 2 - 2.2 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi, fruit farmers' willingness to ship was still low. In Luochuan, merchants mainly packed their own goods and sent them through their own channels, with a small amount of purchasing from fruit farmers' polar fruits. In Weinan, sporadic shipments occurred, and the sales of high - grade inferior fruits were okay, but the purchase of good fruits from fruit farmers by merchants was limited. The current price of semi - commercial fruits from fruit farmers above 70 in Luochuan was around 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and high - grade inferior fruits were around 2.2 yuan/jin. In Baishui, the mainstream ex - warehouse price of fruit farmers' general goods was about 3.2 - 3.4 yuan/jin [7]. Supply Analysis - As of December 4, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 55.00%, 7.68 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From November 27 to December 3, 2025, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.38 percentage points, the single - week ex - warehouse volume increased by 0.07 percentage points compared with last week, and the inventory removal rate was 1.55%. The shipment in Shaanxi and Gansu slowed down, but the inventory in surrounding areas such as Shanxi changed from increasing to decreasing, so the national cold storage inventory shipment increased slightly compared with last week. The cold storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 55.33%, and it decreased by 0.28 percentage points this week. The ex - warehouse in Shandong was mainly for export and the sales of other varieties, and the market shipment was small. The cold storage transaction volume was average, the transaction volume of small and medium - sized fruits decreased, and the packaging also decreased slightly. The ex - warehouse in Shaanxi was 53.48%, and it decreased by 0.41 percentage points this week. The cold storage transaction and shipment volume decreased compared with last week due to the off - season and the impact of citrus [12]. - As of December 3, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the national main producing areas was 7.6351 million tons, a decrease of 32,400 tons compared with last week [12]. Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of incoming trucks in the morning increased compared with last week, with an average of about 26.80 trucks per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late Fuji in baskets was 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes was 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan late Fuji in baskets starting from 70 was 4.0 - 5.5 yuan/jin, and that of Jingning late Fuji in boxes starting from 70 was 5.8 - 7.5 yuan/jin. Recently, the number of incoming trucks in the market increased slightly, but the sales slowed down compared with the previous period. The goods from Gansu sold well, while the sales of other goods were average. The purchasing enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers was not high, and there was pressure on daily digestion, with an increase in the backlog in transfer warehouses [15]. - According to the data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on December 4, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.31 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last Friday, and it was at a high level in the same period in recent years [15]. - In the 2025 - 2026 production season, during the acquisition stage, the profit statistics of 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in Qixia were suspended [15]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: This year, the apple production decreased, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, and the preservation difficulty increased. The market expected that the cold storage inventory data was likely to be low. The peak cold storage apple inventory this year was at a low level in the same period over the years, and the apple quality was relatively poor, so the effective inventory was expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals were strong [16]. - Unilateral: The relatively poor quality of new apples supports the fruit price, and the demand is average. It is expected that the apple trend will be mainly high - level oscillation [16]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Group 4: Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - The chart shows the consumption, deep - processing volume, production, export, and planting area of apples from 2018 to 2023 [20]. Inventory and Shipment - The chart shows the cold storage inventory trends of apples in the whole country, Shandong, and Shaanxi from 2017/18 to 2025/26, as well as the national apple cold storage ex - warehouse trend from 2016/17 to 2024/25 [23][24][25]. Spread and Basis - The chart shows the 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, 10 - 1 spread, and the basis of January, May, and October from 2019 to 2025 [28].

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Approaching Peak Domestic Sugar Pressing, Prices Under Pressure to Decline [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest phase, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The international sugar price has shown signs of bottoming out and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Domestically, sugar mills are in the peak pressing season, and the supply and sales pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports and high production costs, the downward price space is expected to be limited [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Wait and see as the Brazilian sugar season is nearing the end, and although the domestic market has increased supply pressure, the downward price space is limited due to high production costs and low current prices [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Sell put options at low prices [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes**: - In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus of 163 tons, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption increasing by only 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The 2024/25 season had a supply - demand gap of 292 tons. Datagro lowered its forecast of the 2025/26 global sugar supply surplus to 100 tons, reduced Brazil's sugar production forecast, and cut India's sugar production forecast by 70 tons. Major importers like China and Indonesia have increased their purchases [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar Situation**: - Production is expected to remain high, with the 2025/26 production forecast at 45.02 million tons, slightly higher than in August [9]. - In the first half of November, the sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased significantly. The cane crushing volume, ethanol production, and sugar production all increased compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the first half of November in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil increased by 800,000 tons year - on - year [13]. - Sugar inventory decreased slightly, and exports decreased. In November, sugar and molasses exports were 3.3023 million tons, a 2.59% decrease from the same period last year. Cumulative exports from April to November decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [16]. - **Thai Sugar Situation**: - In the 2024/25 season, sugar production was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. Exports from January to September 2025 were 4.8685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.32 million tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to have a slight increase in production, and exports are expected to increase by 1 million tons [24]. - **Indian Sugar Situation**: - In the 2025/26 season, as of November 30, cumulative cane crushing increased by 45.5% year - on - year, and sugar production increased by 49.81% year - on - year. The average national sugar production cost has risen to 41.72 rupees per kilogram [32]. - **Domestic Sugar Situation**: - Sugar mills are gradually starting production. As of November 30, 35 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, with a decrease in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year. In Yunnan, 10 sugar mills have started production, with an increase in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year [35]. - Import profits are relatively high [36]. - In October 2025, sugar imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October, sugar imports were 3.9054 million tons, a 13.8% year - on - year increase. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased [43]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Includes data on Brazilian sugar production, exports, inventory; Indian and Thai sugar production; and domestic sugar production, imports, etc., presented in various charts and figures [45][56][62]