Report Title - "Egg Weekly Report: General Demand, Egg Prices Decline" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently facing challenges with weak demand and downward - pressure on prices. The supply side shows a slow de - stocking trend, and the cost of egg - chicken farming is increasing, resulting in negative profits. In the short - term, the egg price is expected to be range - bound, and the long - term outlook depends on the supply - demand balance [5][10][13] Summary by Directory Part I: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 2.8 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas, it was 3.13 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin. The demand in the national egg market recovered this week, the inventory was basically cleared, and the egg price rebounded from the low. The old - hen price showed a trend of strengthening first and then stabilizing [5] 2. Supply Analysis - On December 5th, the national main - producing area egg - chicken culling volume was 20.82 million, a 5% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 488 days, 1 day less than the previous week. In November, the national in - production egg - chicken inventory was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and a 5.5% year - on - year increase. The monthly egg - chicken chick hatching volume of sample enterprises was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of November 20th, the corn price was around 2,278 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3,062 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,513 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.76 yuan/jin for eggs. As of November 21st, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week. On November 14th, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 7.19 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - As of December 5th, the national representative selling - area egg sales volume was 7,115 tons, a 4% decrease from the previous week. The production - link inventory decreased, and the circulation - link inventory increased. As of December 3rd, the Shouguang vegetable price index was 144.36, and the national average pork wholesale price was about 14.92 yuan/kg, with little change from the previous week [16] 5. Trading Strategies - Trading logic: The recent increase in culled - chicken volume has relieved the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - stocking speed will be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to be range - bound, and the far - month April and May contracts can be considered for long - position building on dips. - Unilateral: The January contract is expected to be range - bound in the short - term. Consider building long positions in the far - month contracts on dips. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Inventory (Zhuochuang) - The data shows the historical in - production egg - chicken inventory and brooding - chicken replenishment volume from 2018 to 2025 [21] 2. Culled - Chicken Situation - The data shows the weekly culled - chicken volume from 2020 to 2025 [22] 3. Egg - Chicken Farming Situation - The data shows the culled - chicken age and the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main producing areas [26] 4. Spread and Basis - The data shows the basis of January, May, and September contracts, as well as the spreads such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread from 2018 to 2025 [29][30][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - This week, iron ore prices fell from their highs. The supply side has remained stable since November, with Australian mainstream ore remaining basically flat year-on-year, and Brazilian ore contributing a small increase. Non-mainstream shipments decreased slightly month-on-month from the high in the third quarter but still contributed an increase year-on-year. The overall supply in the fourth quarter is expected to remain loose. - On the demand side, the domestic terminal steel demand has been declining rapidly on a quarter-on-quarter basis since the third quarter, and there is no sign of significant improvement in the fourth quarter. In October, steel consumption in the real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors all declined. In the medium term, domestic terminal steel demand is expected to continue to operate at a low level. - Overseas demand for iron ore has maintained high growth. From January to October, overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, or 27 million tons. Since the second quarter, overseas iron element consumption has been at a high level year-on-year, continuously contributing to the increase. Among them, overseas India's crude steel output increased by 10% year-on-year from January to October, or 12.6 million tons, and is expected to contribute an additional 15 million tons for the whole year. - Overall, the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices. Since the fourth quarter, the domestic iron element supply-demand pattern has remained loose, domestic iron element inventories have continued to increase, and the fundamentals of iron ore have undergone significant changes. It is expected that iron ore prices will mainly operate at high levels with a downward trend. - Trading strategy: Adopt a bearish view for unilateral trading; hold a wait-and-see attitude for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish view for unilateral trading; hold a wait-and-see attitude for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Global Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 31.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, or 31.9 million tons. Among them, the weekly average of Australian shipments is 17.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, or 1.8 million tons, and the weekly average of Brazilian shipments is 7.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, or 13 million tons. - **Mainstream Mines in Australia and Brazil**: Since 2025, Rio Tinto's shipments have decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, or 1.9 million tons, BHP's shipments have decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, or 300,000 tons, FMG's shipments have increased by 4.8% year-on-year, or 8.2 million tons, and Vale's shipments have increased by 0.5% year-on-year, or 1.2 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines has increased by more than 7 million tons year-on-year since the beginning of the year. - **Non-Mainstream Mines**: Since 2025, the weekly average of non-Australian and non-Brazilian ore shipments has been 5.72 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, or 21 million tons. The weekly average of non-mainstream Australian ore shipments is 2.37 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, or 7.9 million tons, and the weekly average of non-mainstream Brazilian ore shipments is 2.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, or 12 million tons. The non-mainstream ore shipments have been improving since the third quarter, and are expected to contribute a large increase for the whole year, but the domestic import volume is still negative year-on-year [15][17]. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic hot metal production has increased by 3% year-on-year, or 11.3 million tons, and crude steel production has increased by 2.6% year-on-year, or 11.8 million tons. Among them, the apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 4% year-on-year, or 7.8 million tons, the apparent demand for non-building materials has decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, or 4.8 million tons, and domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) has decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, or 12.6 million tons. The manufacturing steel demand has turned negative year-on-year since the third quarter, exerting significant pressure on the current terminal steel demand. - **Overseas Demand**: From January to October, overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, or 27 million tons. Since the second quarter, overseas iron element consumption has been at a high level year-on-year, continuously contributing to the increase. Among them, overseas India's crude steel output increased by 10% year-on-year from January to October, or 12.6 million tons, and is expected to contribute an additional 15 million tons for the whole year [30]. Inventory - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: This week, the imported iron ore port inventory increased slightly month-on-month, the steel mill inventory increased slightly, and the berthing volume remained basically flat, resulting in a month-on-month increase of over 1 million tons in the total domestic imported iron ore inventory. Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, with an inventory accumulation of over 12 million tons. The current total domestic iron element inventory is at a five-year high, second only to the level in 2021 [26].

黑色板块研发报告 钢材专题报告 2025 年 12 月 5 日 钢材出口的延续性还有多久？ 第一部分 前言概要 第 1 页 共 10 页 黑色板块研发报告 钢材专题报告 2025 年 12 月 5 日 第二部分 中国钢材出口韧性仍存 第 2 页 共 10 页 图 1：钢材出口量当月值（万吨） 图 2：钢坯出口量当月值 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 180.00 200.00 中国:出口数量:钢坯:当月值 | 时间 | 品种 | 内容 | 国家(地区、组 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年1月11日 | 不锈钢洗涤槽 | 反倾销调查 | 松鲁 | | 2025年1月16日 | 热轧碳钢管 | 反倾销调查 | 松鲁 | | 2025年1月23日 | 盘条 | 反倾 ...

银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 成本推动短期反弹，需求压制上方空间 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 文 字 色 基 础 色 硅铁方面，供应端硅铁样本企业产量小幅反弹，但11月电价陆续结算，产区电价整体上涨，加剧厂家亏损态势，未来硅铁产量预计 重回下降趋势。需求方面，钢联数据显示，钢材表需开始季节性下降，使得钢材产量继续下降。从高炉检修计划推算，未来生铁产 量预计仍将震荡下行，原料需求仍有下行压力。成本端方面，近期产区铁合金电价稳中偏强，对硅铁有所支撑。总体来看，电价偏 强支撑短期反弹，但上方空间受需求压制。 锰硅方面，供应端锰硅延续了近期的收缩趋势 ...

钢材：铁水下滑空间有限，钢价底部支撑偏强 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量189.31万吨（-16.77），热卷小样本产量314.31万吨（-4.7）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均232.3万吨（-2.38），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率33.1%（-0.4）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在3374 （折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-54.51元/吨左右，谷电成本3209（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电利润 +110元/吨。近期电炉成本有所下滑，废钢供应增加，而钢材价格维持平稳，导致电炉利润有所回升，电炉产能利用 率下浮下滑，废钢日耗在50.52万吨，环比略降，预计后续有复产空间；长流程钢利润维持小幅盈利，铁 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 5 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：摩尔线程上市 有望带动反弹 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：情绪或有修复，短线空单止盈 4 | | 盘面整体压力仍存 5 | 蛋白粕：报告或有阶段性调整 | | --- | --- | | 国内糖价震荡 5 | 白糖：广西进入开榨高峰 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏强，盘面高位震荡 7 | | | 价格小幅回落 8 | 生猪：出栏方面仍有压力 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面高位震荡 9 | | | 蛋价有所回落 9 | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | | 苹果基本面偏强 10 | 苹果：库存较低 | | 棉价震荡偏强 11 | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，成本存在支撑 13 | | --- | | 双焦：底部震荡运行 可逢低试多 13 | | 铁矿：高位偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：成本推动短期反弹，需求压制反弹高度 15 | | 金银：黄金持稳 白银回调 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：铂择机逢低 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term oils and fats lack driving forces, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long at low prices and high - throw and low - suck range operations [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot prices and basis**: - For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price is 8254, down 32. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8514, 8534, and 8414 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin is 280, 260, and 160 respectively, with no change [2] - For palm oil, the 2601 closing price is 8666, down 64. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8616, 8676, and 8776 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is - 50, 10, and 110 respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and 0 [2] - For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price is 9618, down 93. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9888, 10168. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong is 270 and 550 respectively, with changes of - 10 and 0 [2] - **Monthly spreads**: - The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil is 184, down 8; that of palm oil is - 30, up 4; that of rapeseed oil is 181, down 48 [2] - **Cross - variety spreads**: - The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 412, up 32; the OI - Y spread is 1364, down 61; the OI - P spread is 952, down 29; the oil - meal ratio is 2.91, up 0.19 [2] - **Import profits**: - For 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia with a 1 - month ship - date, the CNF price is 1051, and the disk profit is - 199. For crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam with a 1 - month ship - date, the FOB price is 1079, and the disk profit is - 941 [2] - **Weekly commercial inventories (in 10,000 tons)**: - In the 48th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory is 117.9 (last week: 118.0, same period last year: 98.2); palm oil inventory is 65.4 (last week: 66.7, same period last year: 51.7); rapeseed oil inventory is 36.8 (last week: 38.5, same period last year: 45.0) [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International market**: An institution's report shows that Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be 46.9 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, with a forecast range of 45.8 - 48.1 million tons. However, the early - season sowing is continuously delayed, soil moisture in the Pampas planting belt is declining, and the long - term weather outlook is bleak [4] - **Domestic market**: - **Palm oil**: As of November 28, 2025 (the 48th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 653,500 tons, a decrease of 13,600 tons (2.04%) from last week. It is currently at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes are stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to about - 200. There are rumors of palm oil purchases today. The basis is stable with a slight decline. Short - term palm oil lacks obvious driving forces, with a ceiling and a floor, and it is recommended to continue to wait and see [4] - **Soybean oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2008 million tons, with an operating rate of 60.54%, a decrease from the previous week. As of November 28, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 1.1788 million tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons (0.09%) from last week. It is currently at a relatively high level in the same period of history, but the inventory inflection point has been reached. The domestic demand is average, and the trading has become lighter. As soybean arrivals gradually decrease and soybean crushing declines from the high level, the soybean oil inventory may slightly decrease, but the overall inventory is still sufficient. Short - term domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and it is difficult to rise, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider lightly testing long on pullbacks [4][7] - **Rapeseed oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory has bottomed out. As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 368,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from last week, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally. The FOB quote of European rapeseed oil is stable at around $1100, and the import profit inversion has expanded to about - 1000. The market still has the sentiment of holding back sales at high prices. The domestic rapeseed oil basis is stable with a slight decline. It is expected that the coastal de - stocking trend will continue. The market is still focused on the customs clearance speed and crushing situation after the arrival of Australian rapeseed. Overall, the rapeseed oil inventory continues to decrease marginally, which supports the rapeseed oil price. When rapeseed procurement has not been fully liberalized, it is advisable to consider high - throw and low - suck operations [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term oils and fats lack driving forces, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long at low prices and high - throw and low - suck range operations [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Wait and see [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [14][16]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 4, 2025 - Report Type: Black Metal Daily Report (Ferroalloy) - Researcher: Zhou Tao [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost drives short - term rebounds in ferroalloy futures, but future demand pressure restricts the rebound height [5]. - For single - sided trading, expect short - term rebounds driven by cost but be cautious about the limited upside due to demand pressure; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures - SF主力合约 closed at 5546, up 100 for the day and 156 for the week, with a trading volume of 306,562 (up 75,654) and an open interest of 259,817 (down 483) [3]. - SM主力合约 closed at 5796, up 50 for the day and 168 for the week, with a trading volume of 290,333 (up 187,890) and an open interest of 252,039 (up 52,021) [3]. 3.1.2 Spot - Silicon iron spot prices were mostly stable on the 4th. For example, 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5,250, unchanged for the day and up 50 for the week [3]. - Manganese silicon spot prices were stable to slightly stronger, with some regions up 20 yuan/ton. For example, silicon manganese 6517 in Tianjin was up 20 yuan/ton for the day and 90 yuan/ton for the week [3]. 3.1.3 Basis/Spread - For silicon iron, the basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was - 296 (down 100 for the day and 106 for the week) [3]. - The SF - SM spread was - 250, up 50 for the day and down 12 for the week [3]. 3.1.4 Raw Materials - Manganese ore spot prices in Tianjin showed mixed trends on the 4th. Australian lumps rose 0.2 yuan/ton - degree, and semi - carbonates fell 0.1 yuan/ton - degree [3][5]. - Lanthanum charcoal small materials' prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Trading Strategy - **Silicon Iron**: Cost - driven short - term rebound, but limited upside due to demand. In November, power prices in production areas increased, exacerbating losses and expected to reduce future output. Although steel profits have recovered, steel production is still declining [5]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost - driven short - term rebound, but future demand pressure exists. Manganese ore port inventories are at a low level, and the spot price is strong, but steel demand for manganese silicon is weakening [5]. 3.2.2 Unilateral, Arbitrage, and Option Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term rebound driven by cost, but limited upside due to demand pressure [6]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [6]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3.2.3 Important Information - On the 4th, the transaction price of semi - carbonates at Tianjin Port was around 34.3 yuan/ton - degree, Gabon lumps around 43 yuan/ton - degree, etc. [7]. - In November, power prices in Qinghai continued to rise by 3 - 6 cents, and some enterprises in Qinghai plan to stop production due to increased losses. Power prices in Ningxia were stable with a slight increase of 1 cent [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as ferroalloy main contract trends, basis, and cost - profit charts, which visually display the price trends and cost - profit situations of silicon iron and manganese silicon [11][12][15][18][20]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Ore Daily Report [2] - Date: December 04, 2025 [2] Group 2: Futures Market - DCE01 price: 794.5, down 5.0 from yesterday [2] - DCE05 price: 777.0, unchanged from yesterday [2] - DCE09 price: 753.0, unchanged from yesterday [2] - I01 - I05 spread: 17.5, down 5.0 from yesterday [2] - I05 - I09 spread: 24.0, unchanged from yesterday [2] - I09 - I01 spread: -41.5, up 5.0 from yesterday [2] Group 3: Spot Market - PB powder (60.8%) price: 792, down 1 from yesterday [2] - Newman powder price: 795, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Mac powder price: 786, down 4 from yesterday [2] - Jinbuba powder (60.5%) price: 749, down 1 from yesterday [2] - Roy Hill powder price: 783, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Super Special powder price: 688, down 2 from yesterday [2] - BRBF (62.5%) price: 832, down 4 from yesterday [2] - BRBF (63%) price: 838, down 4 from yesterday [2] - FMG price: 738, up 2 from yesterday [2] - Carajás powder price: 885, down 3 from yesterday [2] - Karara concentrate price: 887, down 3 from yesterday [2] - Ukrainian concentrate price: 885, down 3 from yesterday [2] - IOC6 price: 770, down 4 from yesterday [2] - KUMBA price: 878, down 1 from yesterday [2] - SP10 price: 733, down 1 from yesterday [2] - Minmetals standard powder price: 805, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Optimal delivery product: Carajás powder [2] Group 4: Spot Price Spread - Carajás powder - PB powder spread: 88, down 3 from yesterday [2] - Newman powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 46, up 2 from yesterday [2] - Carajás powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 136, down 2 from yesterday [2] - PB powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 48, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Newman lump - Newman powder spread: 72, down 3 from yesterday [2] - Roy Hill lump - Roy Hill powder spread: 14, down 2 from yesterday [2] - Mac powder - Super Special powder spread: 98, down 2 from yesterday [2] - PB powder - Super Special powder spread: 109, up 2 from yesterday [2] - PB lump - PB powder spread: 78, down 1 from yesterday [2] Group 5: Import Profit - Carajás powder import profit: -11, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Newman powder import profit: 18, up 3 from yesterday [2] - PB powder import profit: -2, up 2 from yesterday [2] - Jinbuba powder import profit: 21, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Super Special powder import profit: -1, up 1 from yesterday [2] - PB lump import profit: 78, up 2 from yesterday [2] - BRBF import profit: 8, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Mac powder import profit: 13, down 3 from yesterday [2] - FMG import profit: 4, up 5 from yesterday [2] Group 6: Platts Index - Platts 62% iron ore price: 108.0, up 0.2 from yesterday [2] - Platts 65% iron ore price: 120.0, up 0.2 from yesterday [2] - Platts 58% iron ore price: 96.1, up 0.4 from yesterday [2] Group 7: Domestic and Foreign Dollar Spread - SGX main - DCE01 spread: 1.9, up 0.1 from yesterday [2] - SGX main - DCE05 spread: 4.7, down 0.3 from yesterday [2] - SGX main - DCE09 spread: 7.8, down 0.3 from yesterday [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a shipping daily report dated December 4, 2025, focusing on the container shipping industry, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [2][4] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - EC2512 closed at 1,649.1, down 4.4 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 270.0 (down 48.37%) and an open interest of 3,731.0 (down 2.15%) [3] - EC2602 closed at 1,585.0, up 44.9 (2.92%), with a trading volume of 27,304.0 (up 22.44%) and an open interest of 34,222.0 (down 2.25%) [3] - EC2604 closed at 1,090.1, up 7.0 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 2,881.0 (down 12.78%) and an open interest of 19,129.0 (up 0.69%) [3] - EC2606 closed at 1,255.1, up 0.6 (0.05%), with a trading volume of 178.0 (down 53.28%) and an open interest of 2,141.0 (down 1.20%) [3] - EC2608 closed at 1,385.6, up 5.5 (0.40%), with a trading volume of 125 (down 49.39%) and an open interest of 1,549 (down 1.78%) [3] - EC2610 closed at 1,040.2, down 2.0 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 297 (down 24.81%) and an open interest of 3,961 (up 1.85%) [3] Month - Spread Structure - The spread between EC12 - EC02 was 64, down 49.3; EC12 - EC04 was 559, down 11.4; EC02 - EC04 was 495, up 37.9; etc [3] Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line was at 1483.65 points, down 9.50% week - on - week and 47.55% year - on - year [3] - SCFIS US West Line was at 948.77 points, down 14.36% week - on - week and 44.77% year - on - year [3] Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month was at $58.70 per barrel, up 0.38% week - on - week and down 14.12% year - on - year [3] - Brent crude oil near - month was at $62.35 per barrel, up 0.56% week - on - week and down 13.6% year - on - year [3] Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - In the morning, the futures market declined due to unconfirmed rumors of extra ships, but the market sentiment was boosted by the expected price increase by shipping companies in January. On December 4, EC2512 closed at 1585 points, up 2.92% from the previous day [5] - On November 28, the SCFI European Line was at $1404/TEU, up 2.7% week - on - week. The latest SCFIS European Line released after the market on Monday was at 1483.65 points, down 9.5% week - on - week, slightly lower than market expectations [5] - MSK issued a price increase notice for January after the market today, targeting $2275/3500. Attention should be paid to the price adjustment actions of other shipping companies and the actual implementation of the price increase [5] Logical Analysis - In the spot market, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote in Week 51 was $2400, up $200 week - on - week. It issued a price increase notice for January with a target of $2275/3500 [6] - Some shipping companies have started to announce price increases for the second half of December, with online prices ranging from $2800 - $3500, and there are still price increase expectations for January [6] - In terms of fundamentals, the demand for shipments from December to January is expected to gradually improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to 5 Nordic ports in December was 28.32 million TEU, and 29.41/28.05 million TEU in January/February 2026 respectively [6] - Geopolitically, the second - stage peace talks are expected to be tortuous. It is difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, but the number of return ships via the Suez Canal is expected to gradually increase, and the probability of resuming shipping after the Spring Festival may gradually increase [6] Trading Strategies - For the EC2602 contract, long positions can consider taking profits in batches on rallies, and pay attention to the price increase announcements of shipping companies and the improvement in cargo volume [7] - For the 2 - 4 calendar spread, take profits in batches on rallies [8] Group 4: Industry News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 11% [9] - Maersk currently has no specific timeline to divert the East - West (Gemini) route through the Red Sea [9] - On December 3, Trump said that either the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement would expire, or a new agreement would be reached with Mexico and Canada [10] - On December 3, Hamas strongly condemned the Israeli military's air strikes on displaced people's tents and areas near Kuwait Hospital in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip [10] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for different routes [13][17][19]