1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upward, mainly following the rise in oil prices. In the short - term, Shandong prices are firm, while East China has high supply pressure and is expected to remain weak overall. The external market is expected to be volatile and weak under the expectations of high supply and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate of winter demand, despite the seasonal increase [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, in the spot market, the price of South China LPG increased from 4640 to 4650 (+50), East China from 4385 to 4393 (+6), and Shandong from 4550 to 4580 (+10). The price of ether - post carbon four remained at 4620. The paper import profit increased by 42, and the main contract basis decreased by 17 [1]. - **Futures Market**: The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4373 (-42), Shandong at 4570 (+40), and South China at 4640 (-10). The basis was 103 (+113), the 10 - 11 spread was 148 (+83), and the 11 - 12 spread was 79 (+19). The number of warehouse receipts was 14327 (+1353) [1]. - **External Market**: The FEI monthly spread dropped 2.5 to - 8.5 dollars, and the CP monthly spread rose 1.5 to - 13 dollars. The FEI - CP spread was 1 (-5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. 3.2 Weekly Outlook - **Domestic Market**: Before the holiday, upstream inventory was cleared, arrivals decreased, propane chemical demand increased, and combustion demand replenished stocks. The PDH operating rate was 69.48% (+4.34 percentage points), and it is expected to rise next week [1]. - **External Market**: Although there is a seasonal increase, under the expectations of high supply and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate of winter demand, it is expected to be volatile and weak overall [1]. 3.3 Daily Changes - The basis was 103 (+96), and the 10 - 11 spread was 35 (+148). As of 9:00 am, FEI and CP c1 fluctuated, at 548 (-2) and 545 (+1) respectively [1].

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焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/29 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1427.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -108.16 | -17.12% 高炉开工率 | 90.86 | | 0.51 | 0.84 | 8.09% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1680.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -110.00 | 4.35% 铁水日均产量 | 242.36 | | 1.34 | 2.23 | 7.78% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1605.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -110.00 | -13.01% 盘面05 | 1862.5 | -23.00 | -6.00 | 119.50 | -9.85% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1645.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -110.00 | -12.73% 盘面09 | 1933.5 | - ...

焦煤日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/29 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1503.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 93.00 | 7.36% Peak Downs | 205.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 4.00 | -16.60 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1040.00 | -10.00 | 20.00 | 124.00 | -8.77% Goonyella | 205.50 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | -11.50 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1390.00 | 0.00 | 40.00 | 10.00 | -14.20% 盘面05 | 1304.00 | -14.00 | -19.00 | 104.50 | -9.13% | | 安泽主焦 | 1590.00 | 0.00 | 90.00 | 120.00 | -8.09 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the pressure transmission from ports to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment, but port backflow will impact the inland valuation. Current valuation, inventory, and drivers are not ideal, so bottom - fishing should wait [2]. - Plastic: Polyethylene inventory is neutral overall. There is no further increase in import profit for now. Pay attention to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. - Polypropylene: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In the context of over - capacity, the pressure on 01 contract is moderately excessive, which can be alleviated if exports increase or PDH devices are frequently shut down [7]. - PVC: The basis remains stable. Downstream开工 is seasonally weak, and mid - upstream inventories are accumulating. Focus on production, exports, coal prices, and other factors [7]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From September 22 to 26, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801. There were minor changes in spot prices in different regions, and import profit and other data also had slight fluctuations [2]. - **View**: The trading logic is port - to - inland pressure transmission. Inland has stocking demand, but port backflow will affect inland valuation. Current conditions are not suitable for bottom - fishing [2]. Plastic - **Price Data**: From September 22 to 26, 2025, there were minor changes in prices such as东北亚乙烯,华北LL, etc.两油库存decreased from 68 to 59, and other data remained relatively stable [6]. - **View**: Polyethylene inventory is neutral. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Pay attention to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From September 22 to 26, 2025, prices of山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯, etc. had minor changes.两油库存decreased from 68 to 59, and other data were relatively stable [7]. - **View**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The 01 contract has moderate over - capacity pressure, which can be alleviated by increased exports or PDH device shutdowns [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From September 22 to 26, 2025, prices of西北电石,山东烧碱, etc. remained stable, with a 20 - unit decrease in电石 - based PVC in East China. Other data were relatively unchanged [7]. - **View**: The basis is stable. Downstream开工 is seasonally weak, mid - upstream inventories are accumulating. Focus on production, exports, coal prices, etc. [7]

Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3769.85, with a change of 39.10 [1] - London Silver latest price is 45.00, with a change of 0.06 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1505.00, with a change of 25.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1234.00, with a change of 8.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 65.72, with a change of 0.74 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 10271.50, with a change of -51.50 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver: no latest inventory data and change provided [2] - SHFE Silver latest inventory is 1158.27, with a change of 1.41 [2] - Gold ETF latest holding is 1005.72, with a change of 8.87 [2] - Silver ETF latest holding is 15361.84, with a change of -28.23 [2] - SGE Silver: no latest inventory data provided, and its deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] Other Market Data - US Dollar Index latest is 98.19, with a change of -0.27 [11] - EUR/USD latest is 1.17, with a change of 0.00 [11] - GBP/USD latest is 1.34, with a change of 0.01 [11] - USD/JPY latest is 149.50, with a change of -0.30 [11] - US 10 - year TIPS latest is 1.82, with a change of 0.02 [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Grasberg's unexpected copper production cut will change the global copper supply pattern in the next 12 - 15 months, and the mid - term allocation value of copper is still optimistic, with consideration of long - term mid - term orders or selling put options below 78,000 [1] - The short - term fundamentals of aluminum are acceptable, and one can hold at low prices in a low - inventory pattern and pay attention to far - month inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [1] - Zinc prices are oscillating this week. The short - term unilateral trend is weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see; for domestic - foreign arbitrage, partial profit - taking can be made for domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [2] - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel remain weak. The short - term macro aspect follows the anti - involution expectation, and the policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [3][4] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly next week, in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 [5] - Tin prices are in a wide - range oscillation. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and one can lightly short above 275,000 yuan/ton; in the medium - to - long - term, hold near the cost line at low prices [10] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are balanced in September and October, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] - The price of lithium carbonate oscillates. With the support of the seasonal peak season and the explosion of energy - storage demand, the monthly balance after CATL's production cut turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is average [11] Summary by Metals Copper - Freeport Indonesia's subsidiary's accident delays Grasberg's resumption of production, reducing the 2026 copper production guidance by about 35% (equivalent to about 270,000 tons of copper and about 1.04 million ounces of gold) [1] - The adjusted copper mine supply has no obvious increase this year, and there will be no increase in the mine supply next year if the Panama mine does not resume production [1] - Fund long positions are gradually increasing, but the focus of macro and bulk CTA funds is still on precious metals. The gold - copper ratio is at a low historical quantile [1] Aluminum - Supply increases slightly, and aluminum ingot imports provide an increase from January to August [1] - Downstream construction improves, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules stabilizes. Attention should be paid to whether overseas demand stabilizes after the decline [1] - There is a slight inventory reduction in September, and a seasonal slight inventory increase is expected in October [1] Zinc - Domestic TC decreases further, and imported TC increases further. The domestic zinc ore supply is tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas mine supply increased unexpectedly in the second quarter [2] - In October, the smelting end recovers slightly month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2] - Domestic social inventory oscillates, and overseas LME inventory decreases. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge, and the export window is close to opening [2] Nickel - The supply side expects a slight resumption of production by steel mills, the demand side is mainly for rigid demand, and the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable [3] - There is a slight inventory increase in Xifu, and a slight inventory reduction in warehouse receipts [3] Stainless Steel - The supply side expects a slight resumption of production by steel mills, the demand side is mainly for rigid demand, the price of nickel iron remains stable, and the price of chrome iron rises slightly [3][4] - There is inventory reduction in Xifu, and a slight inventory reduction in warehouse receipts [3][4] Lead - On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste battery is in short supply, the recycled lead maintains low - level operation, and the TC quotation is in a chaotic decline [5] - On the demand side, the battery finished - product inventory is high, the battery construction rate increases this week, and the demand turns slightly prosperous [5] - The refined - scrap price difference is - 75, the long - term supply in Henan is tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decrease by 20,000 tons [5] Tin - On the supply side, the domestic smelting plants reduce production, and the supply from overseas gradually recovers. The supply side is marginally repaired [10] - On the demand side, the demand for solder is mainly rigid. The downstream restocking intention is strong when the price drops rapidly this week, and the inventory reduction is significant [10] - The domestic fundamentals are short - term in a situation of weak supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the expected changes after October and the impact of interest - rate cut expectations [10] Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises resume production, and some factories in the southwest may gradually reduce production later [11] - The supply and demand are balanced in September and October, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - The raw - material end has strong price - support intention from overseas mines and reluctant selling from traders, but salt factories have low acceptance of high - price lithium mines [11] - The pre - holiday stocking rhythm of the lithium - salt end is strong first and then weak, and the spot basis is weakly stable, with some discounts expanding by 100 - 200 yuan [11] - In the context of strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price elasticity is high after the supply - side disturbance speculation materializes, and the downward price support is strong before the disturbance materializes [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated, the near - month spread fluctuated, the basis strengthened slightly, the EW spread rebounded again and had wide - range fluctuations recently, and the domestic and foreign near - months of FU fluctuated. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period. The spread was weakly sorted, the domestic and foreign prices of LU rebounded slightly to $8 - 9 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis fluctuated. Fundamentally, the residual oil in Singapore decreased, the floating storage fluctuated, the ARA residual oil inventory decreased slightly, the EIA residual oil decreased slightly, the Fujairah inventory decreased, and the high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly. The high - sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. Supported by the reshaped logistics and the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore, the EW spread has been repaired. Recently, the 380 cracking level has been supported by the refinery's raw material procurement, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain a fluctuating pattern, and the domestic FU will have a short - term internal and external fluctuating and bullish trend. This week, the LU disk was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis fluctuated at a low level. In the fourth quarter, the domestic and foreign spreads of LU can be expanded on dips. Pay attention to the quota usage [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 386.97 to 412.75, a change of 5.02; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 427.29 to 447.68, a change of 4.71; Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased from - 4.97 to - 4.79, a change of - 0.69; Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 664.85 to 705.52, a change of 9.10; Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 237.56 to - 257.84, a change of - 4.39; LGO - Brent M1 increased from 24.40 to 26.82, a change of 0.57; Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased from 40.32 to 34.93, a change of - 0.31 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 393.02 to 412.16, a change of 4.84; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 403.27 to 421.41, a change of 5.15; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 465.33 to 479.10, a change of 3.43; the price of Singapore Gasoil M1 increased from 87.43 to 91.66, a change of 1.77; Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased from - 4.47 to - 3.78, a change of 0.05; Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 181.65 to - 199.18, a change of - 9.66 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from 393.48 to 413.20, a change of 5.67; the FOB VLSFO price increased from 463.33 to 478.80, a change of 4.92; the 380 basis increased from 0.60 to 1.35, a change of 0.10; the high - sulfur internal - external spread decreased from 6.0 to 7.2, a change of - 0.4; the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 9.7 to 11.1, a change of 0.9 [3] Domestic FU - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased from 2784 to 2918, a change of 31; the price of FU 05 increased from 2743 to 2855, a change of 25; the price of FU 09 increased from 2697 to 2757, a change of 19; FU 01 - 05 increased from 41 to 63, a change of 6; FU 05 - 09 increased from 46 to 98, a change of 6; FU 09 - 01 decreased from - 87 to - 161, a change of - 12 [3] Domestic LU - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased from 3351 to 3464, a change of 33; the price of LU 05 increased from 3342 to 3440, a change of 51; the price of LU 09 increased from 3306 to 3400, a change of 37; LU 01 - 05 decreased from 9 to 24, a change of - 18; LU 05 - 09 increased from 36 to 40, a change of 14; LU 09 - 01 increased from - 45 to - 64, a change of 4 [4]

Report Summary Report Information - Report Title: Scrap Steel Morning Report [1] - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [2] Core View - The report presents the scrap steel prices in different regions (East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China) from September 22 to September 26, 2025, along with the week - on - week changes [3] Price Data - **East China**: Prices ranged from 2261 on September 22 to 2264 on September 25, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 [3] - **North China**: Prices dropped from 2333 on September 22 to 2327 on September 26, with a week - on - week decrease of 2 [3] - **Central China**: Prices were 2081 on September 22 and remained at 2085 on September 26, with no week - on - week change [3] - **South China**: Prices fluctuated between 2261 on September 22 and 2263 on September 25, with a week - on - week decrease of 3 [3] - **Northeast China**: Prices went from 2293 on September 22 to 2291 on September 26, with a week - on - week decrease of 2 [3] - **Southwest China**: Prices were 2170 on September 22 and 2165 on September 26, with no week - on - week change [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 29, 2025 [2] 2. SP Main Contract Information - Closing Price on September 26, 2025: 5016.00 - Price Changes: -0.86957% compared to the previous day - Basis: Shandong Yinxing basis was 594, and Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai Yinxing basis was 609 on September 26, 2025 [3] 3. Import Information - Import Profits: Calculated based on 13% VAT, the import profit of Jinsi was -154.38, Xiongshi was -526.54, and Yinxing was -99.83 [4] 4. Price Information - National Average Prices: From September 22 to September 26, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged - Shandong Regional Average Prices: Also remained unchanged during the same period - Paper Product Indexes: The indexes of cultural paper, packaging paper, and tissue paper remained unchanged - Profit Margins: The profit margins of double-offset paper, double-coated paper, white cardboard, and tissue paper remained unchanged [5] 5. Price Spread Information - Price Spreads: From September 22 to September 26, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood pulp and waste paper remained relatively stable [5]