甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/15 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/09/0 8 801 2285 2270 2545 2485 2495 2680 263 323 15 -130 -1295 2025/09/0 9 801 2285 2273 2560 2520 2495 2698 263 323 14 -125 -1295 2025/09/1 0 801 2302 2290 2590 2520 2565 2728 266 326 -3 -125 -1295 2025/09/1 1 801 2292 2280 2590 2520 2565 2723 263 326 13 -110 -1295 2025/09/1 2 801 2290 2275 2585 2520 2565 2723 263 326 13 -95 -1295 日度变化 0 -2 -5 -5 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 观点 仍是交易港口压力传导到内地得逻辑，内地后期有季节性 ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/09/08 | 3200 | 3260 | 3260 | 3240 | 3300 | 3240 | | 2025/09/09 | 3200 | 3260 | 3260 | 3240 | 3300 | 3300 | | 2025/09/10 | 3160 | 3210 | 3260 | 3210 | 3300 | 3260 | | 2025/09/11 | 3150 | 3210 | 3250 | 3190 | 3240 | 3250 | | 2025/09/12 | 3190 | 3210 | 3290 | 3230 | 3240 | 3230 | | 变化 | 40 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 0 | -20 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly presents the performance data of various global asset markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On September 12, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.022, 4.606, 3.441 respectively. There were no latest changes, but significant weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were observed. For example, the US had a one - year change of 0.266, while Italy had a one - year change of - 0.206 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On September 12, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.540, 3.927, 1.983 respectively. Weekly, monthly, and yearly changes also varied. For instance, the US had a one - year change of - 0.020, while Japan had a one - year change of 0.484 [3]. - **USD Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: As of September 12, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc., were 5.389, 108.000 respectively. There were no latest changes, and weekly, monthly, and yearly changes differed. For example, the Brazilian real had a one - year change of - 4.48% against the US dollar [3]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On September 12, 2025, the values of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc., were 6587.470, 46108.000 respectively. There were no latest changes, but weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were notable. For example, the S&P 500 had a one - year change of 19.34% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: There were no latest changes in the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. Weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were positive in most cases. For example, the US high - yield credit bond index had a one - year change of 8.93% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc., were 3870.60, 4522.00 respectively, with different percentage changes. For example, the A - shares had a change of - 0.12% [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 14.13, 11.90 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums of the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3.70, 5.77 respectively, with no环比 changes [5]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of A - shares, the main board, etc., were 1342.66, 657.95 respectively [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc., were 25209.25, 6895.76 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC were 1.20, 0.06, - 7.75 respectively, with corresponding basis spreads [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc., were 107.880, 105.760 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.14%, 0.19% respectively [6]. - **Funding Rates and Daily Changes**: The funding rates of R001, R007, etc., were 1.3979%, 1.4651% respectively, with daily changes of - 9.00BP, - 2.00BP respectively [6].

February | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/9/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 会钓 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1157.6 | -3.84 | -1157.6 | | 27358 | 47611 | -1896 | | | EC2512 | | 1610.2 | 0.07 | -1610.2 | | 9853 | 19637 | 612 | | | EC2602 | | 1500.8 | 0.23 | -1500.8 | | 1680 | 6327 | 326 | | | EC2604 | | 1230.4 | -0.93 | -1230.4 | | 966 | 7993 | 202 | | | EC2606 | | 1410.5 | -1.41 | -1410.5 | | 155 | 997 | 34 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前内日 ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/15 日期 华东 华北 中部 华南 东北 西南 2025/09/08 2231 2326 2066 2261 2285 2148 2025/09/09 2237 2331 2071 2269 2285 2152 2025/09/10 2238 2331 2070 2266 2285 2153 2025/09/11 2241 2330 2071 2267 2285 2152 2025/09/12 2241 2329 2072 2261 2285 2150 环比 0 -1 1 -6 0 -2 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲 ...

Report Overview - The report provides overnight market information on oilseeds and oils, including data from USDA reports, export figures, and news on biodiesel projects [1]. - It also presents spot prices of various oilseeds and oils from September 8 - 12, 2025 [2]. USDA Oilseed Report Highlights Rapeseed - Global 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to reach 9096.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 523.5 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 1137.4 million tons, up 101 million tons [1]. - Global 2025/26 rapeseed oil production is expected to be 3469.9 million tons, up 59.8 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 312.2 million tons, down 8.8 million tons [1]. - Global 2025/26 rapeseed meal production is expected to be 4958.2 million tons, up 57.3 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 157.9 million tons, up 19.8 million tons [1]. - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed exports are expected to be 670 million tons, down 263.5 million tons; rapeseed oil exports are expected to be 337.5 million tons, up 3.5 million tons; rapeseed meal exports are expected to be 550 million tons, down 29.9 million tons [1]. Palm Oil - Global 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 8081.6 million tons, an increase of 8 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 palm oil ending stocks are expected to be 1524 million tons, up 20.6 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 palm oil exports are expected to be 4570.8 million tons, a downward revision of 45.5 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 2400 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate; Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 1610 million tons, also unchanged [1]. Soybean - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 175 million tons, the same as the August estimate; exports are estimated at 112 million tons, unchanged from August [1]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 48.5 million tons, the same as in August; exports are estimated at 6 million tons, up from 5.8 million tons in August [1]. - China's 2025/26 soybean imports are estimated at 112 million tons, the same as the August estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 425.87 million tons, down from 426.39 million tons in August; ending stocks are estimated at 123.99 million tons, down from 124.9 million tons in August [1]. Other Market Information - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10, 2025, were 244,940 tons, a 27.8% decline from the same period last month [1]. - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil content in biodiesel to 45% (B45) before reaching B50, currently at 40% [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 8 - 12, 2025, are presented in a table [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With oil prices falling, the PG spot market is weak, and both civil gas and ether - post carbon four prices have declined. The overall market is expected to remain weak due to sufficient supply from incoming resources and a decline in chemical demand, especially with the drop in PDH, alkylation, and MTBE operating rates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - **Spot Prices**: Civil gas prices in East China are at a low of 4507 (+0), in Shandong 4500 (+0), and in South China 4550 (-40). Ether - post carbon four is at 4760 (-40). The lowest delivery location is Shandong [1] - **Futures Prices**: The PG main contract fluctuates strongly. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakens to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 month spread is 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread is 62 (+3) [1] - **External Prices**: FEI and CP drop slightly by 2 dollars to 550 and 546 dollars/ton respectively. FEI month - spread is +1, MB month - spread is unchanged, and CP month - spread is -2.5. The internal - external price difference decreases slightly [1] Market Conditions - **Inventory**: Port and factory inventories increase as inbound shipments decrease, outbound shipments increase slightly, but demand narrows [1] - **Demand**: Chemical demand drops. PDH operating rate is 70.49% (-2.61), with some plants resuming, others under maintenance or reducing loads. Alkylation and MTBE operating rates also decline [1] - **Arbitrage and Freight**: The US - Asia arbitrage window closes. Freight rates continue to rise, with the US Gulf - Japan at 155 (+11) and the Middle East - Far East at 82 (+7) [1]

农产品早报 | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/15 | | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/09/08 2230 | 2270 2300 | 2440 | 39 | 35 315 | 2800 | 2900 | 278 | -21 | | 2025/09/09 2230 | 2270 2280 | 2440 | 56 | 35 308 | 2800 | 2850 | 295 | -24 | | 2025/09/10 2230 | 2260 2280 | 2430 | 63 | 35 296 | 2800 | 2850 | 217 | -27 | | 2025/09/11 2230 | 2260 2270 | 2430 | 58 | 40 320 | 2800 | 2850 | 228 | -27 | | 2025 ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 681.0 0.0 -5.0 -16.0 -174.0 25省终端可用天数 21.9 0.6 1.9 0.9 4.3 秦皇岛5000 589.0 0.0 -10.0 -43.0 -161.0 25省终端供煤 599.7 -4.7 -8.8 -40.3 -23.1 广州港5500 755.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -150.0 北方港库存 2035.0 -5.0 20.0 -58.0 -87.6 鄂尔多斯5500 465.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -155.0 北方锚地船舶 72.0 9.0 10.0 -3.0 -29.0 大同5500 520.0 0.0 0.0 -35.0 -190.0 北方港调入量 154.4 -3.8 -0.9 9.6 -8.0 榆林6000 602.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -197.0 北方港吞吐量 126.3 5.2 -17.0 -12.5 10.0 榆林6200 630.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -195.0 CBCFI海运指数 604.4 25.6 17.2 - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with the restart of devices, TA de - stocking slows down. The polyester shows no unexpected performance, and with new production in the future, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. However, the processing fee has reached a very low level for a long time, and as PX supply gradually returns, attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees [3]. - For MEG, new devices are put into operation earlier than expected, and the valuation is significantly compressed. With the subsequent increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the far - month, port inventory may gradually accumulate, but the current inventory is not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, the speed of increasing production at the polyester yarn end may slow down due to high finished - product inventory. The staple fiber has a high operating rate due to good spot benefits, with limited inventory pressure, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [4]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Device Changes**: Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device restarted [3]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end TA maintenance is over, the operating rate rises, polyester load slightly increases, inventory remains stable, the basis is weak, and the spot processing fee is at a low level. PX domestic operating rate rises, overseas devices restart, PXN remains the same, disproportionation efficiency remains stable while isomerization efficiency weakens, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia remains stable [3]. MEG - **Device Changes**: Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device restarted, Inner Mongolia Jinyuan's 260,000 - ton device and Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device were under maintenance [4]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based production slightly increases the load, the overall load rises. Overseas, there are both maintenance and restart. With the increase in arrivals during the week, port inventory slightly accumulates. Downstream inventory levels rise, the basis weakens, and the efficiency ratio shrinks [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device Changes**: Near - end, Sanfangxiang and Yizheng increased their loads, and the operating rate rose to 94.4% [4]. - **Market Situation**: The production and sales improved compared with the previous period, and inventory slightly decreased. On the demand side, the polyester yarn operating rate remained stable, raw material inventory decreased, finished - product inventory decreased, and the efficiency was weak [4]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, prices of various types of rubber, including US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, Thai mixed rubber, etc., showed different degrees of decline. For example, the US - dollar Thai standard rubber spot price decreased from $1,875 to $1,850 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping [4]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, prices of raw materials and products such as ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene showed certain fluctuations. For example, the CFR China price of styrene decreased from $878 to $870 on September 11 - 12 [7]. - **Profit Situation**: The domestic profit of styrene remained at a loss, while the domestic profit of EPS increased from 235 to 295 from September 11 - 12 [7].