| 示 亦安期货 | | --- | 纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/03 SP主力合约收盘价： 5266.00 | 日期 | 2026/02/02 | 2026/01/30 | 2026/01/29 | 2026/01/28 | 2026/01/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5266.00 | 5300.00 | 5388.00 | 5374.00 | 5342.00 | | 折美元价 | 661.49 | 666.08 | 677.54 | 675.82 | 670.56 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.64151% | -1.63326% | 0.26051% | 0.59903% | -0.59546% | | 山东银星基差 | 109 | 75 | 12 | 26 | 58 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 124 | 90 | 12 | 26 | 58 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export inspection volume of US soybeans in the week ending January 29, 2026 was 1,310,559 tons, at the high - end of the estimated range, with 740,004 tons exported to China, accounting for 56.46% of the total export inspection volume. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year is 21,991,461 tons, compared with 34,192,882 tons in the same period of the previous year [1]. - The US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 was 6.9 million short tons. The production of crude soybean oil in December 2025 was 2.66 billion pounds, a 5% increase from November 2025 and a 3% increase from December 2024. The production of soybean meal in December 2025 was 5,107,259 short tons [1]. - StoneX and Celeres raised their production forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop. StoneX estimated the production at 181.62 million tons, a 7.6% increase from the previous year, and Celeres estimated it at a record 181.3 million tons, a 5% increase from the previous year [1]. - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 10% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest area, 5 percentage points higher than the previous week and 1 percentage point higher than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the weather in Rio Grande do Sul in February [1]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products in January 2026 was 1,463,069 tons, a 17.9% increase from the previous month [1]. - Indonesia exported 23.61 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in 2025, a 9.09% year - on - year increase, with a total export value of 24.42 billion US dollars [2]. 3. Summary according to relevant catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending January 29, 2026 was 1,310,559 tons, with a market expectation of 600,000 - 1,400,000 tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 1,336,311 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year is 21,991,461 tons, compared with 34,192,882 tons in the same period of the previous year [1]. - The US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 was 6.9 million short tons (229.8 million bushels), compared with 6.62 million short tons (221 million bushels) in November 2025 and 6.53 million short tons (218 million bushels) in December 2024. The production of crude soybean oil in December 2025 was 2.66 billion pounds, a 5% increase from November 2025 and a 3% increase from December 2024. The production of soybean meal in December 2025 was 5,107,259 short tons [1]. Production Forecast - StoneX and Celeres raised their production forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop. StoneX estimated the production at 181.62 million tons, a 7.6% increase from the previous year, and Celeres estimated it at a record 181.3 million tons, a 5% increase from the previous year [1]. Harvest Progress - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 10% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest area, 5 percentage points higher than the previous week and 1 percentage point higher than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the weather in Rio Grande do Sul in February [1]. Export Data - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products in January 2026 was 1,463,069 tons, a 17.9% increase from the previous month [1]. - Indonesia exported 23.61 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in 2025, a 9.09% year - on - year increase, with a total export value of 24.42 billion US dollars [2]. Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 27 to February 2, 2026 showed certain fluctuations [4].

l js 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/2/3 | 品种 | 类别 | 指标 | 12/31 | 1/27 | 1/29 | 1/30 | 2/2 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR主力合约收盘价 | 11520 | 13045 | 13390 | 13390 | 12900 | -490 | -145 | | | | 持仓量 | 41261 | 79495 | 68184 | 53381 | 39702 | -13679 | -39793 | | | 播 11 | 成交量 | 97681 | 749819 | 468486 | 672720 | 437309 | -235411 | -312510 | | | | 仓単数量 | 23490 | 28120 | 28320 | 28320 | 28310 | -10 | 190 | | | | 虚实比 | 8.78 | 14.13 | 12.04 | 9.42 | 7.01 | -2 | -7 | | | | 顺 ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 699.0 1.0 6.0 9.0 -66.0 25省终端可用天数 17.8 -0.3 -2.2 -3.1 0.2 秦皇岛5000 614.0 1.0 8.0 19.0 -56.0 25省终端供煤 626.1 4.7 17.5 -14.0 3.2 广州港5500 795.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -65.0 北方港库存 2330.0 -10.0 -98.0 -265.0 36.6 鄂尔多斯5500 500.0 0.0 10.0 5.0 -40.0 北方锚地船舶 85.0 0.0 -15.0 20.0 35.0 大同5500 555.0 0.0 10.0 5.0 -75.0 北方港调入量 130.1 -21.1 -33.2 16.8 11.5 榆林6000 670.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -82.0 北方港吞吐量 151.2 -25.7 -11.0 9.7 15.7 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -35.0 CBCFI海运指数 596.2 -18.6 -83.0 -13.0 121.1 ...

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/03 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2026/01/27 | 348.36 | 398.84 | -11.04 | 658.65 | -259.81 | 22.80 | 50.48 | | 2026/01/28 | 357.51 | 403.54 | -10.69 | 673.15 | -269.61 | 23.85 | 46.03 | | 2026/01/29 | 370.52 | 415.73 | -11.26 | 690.85 | -275.12 | 23.92 | 45.21 ...

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | MIZULU POLOGIA EVE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 12/31 | 1/27 | 1/29 | 1/30 | 2/2 | 日度变化 | 間 | | | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) 华东基差(镇江库) | -52 -82 | -69 1 | -118 -178 | -14 -124 | 21 1 | 35 125 | | | 基差&月差 | 华南基差(佛山库) | -122 | 21 | -158 | -74 | -9 | રે | | | | 01-03 | -57 | -93 | -124 | -105 | -72 | 33 | | | | 02-03 | -14 | -8 | -2 | -16 | -16 | 0 | | | | 03-06 | -23 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 6 | | | | BU主力合约(02) | 3022 | 3279 | 3478 | 3424 | 3299 | -125 | | ...

跨品种套利跟踪 2026/02/03 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/03 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 100400 12448 8.26 三月 98280 12508 8.10 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.88 -731.31 现货出口 -3180.64 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 25010 3266 7.66 三月 24530 3272 5.14 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.29 -2060.16 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23700 2977 7.96 三月 23005 2999 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.36 -1179.22 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 134750 16431 8.20 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.04 -1560.37 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16625 1913 8.67 三月 16760 1961 12.7 ...

LPG早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/03 L P G 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CFR华南 丙烷CIF日 本 CP预测合 同价 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基 化油 纸面进口利润 主力基差 2026/01/27 4840 4384 4410 599 573 535 4350 7150 54 236 2026/01/28 4850 4401 4410 609 568 538 4370 7180 -8 215 2026/01/29 4850 4413 4420 624 601 536 4400 7200 -126 165 2026/01/30 4840 4418 4470 629 596 535 4470 7250 -177 228 2026/02/02 4870 4428 4480 616 540 526 4250 7150 -40 373 日度变化 30 10 10 -13 -56 -9 -220 -100 137 145 日度观点 周一盘面大幅下跌，跟随油价和外盘；03-04月差-284（-2），03-05月差-190（-12），04-05月差94（-13）。截至周一晚10点30，FE ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain moderately strong in the short - term due to supply constraints and downstream stocking expectations, and long - term focus should be on import and domestic auction policies [3]. - Starch prices are supported in the short - term by holiday stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term price trends depend on downstream consumption rhythms [4]. - For sugar, the international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season, and the domestic market's short - term pricing refers to domestic sugar, with long - term trends depending on the degree of global surplus [5]. - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as demand is expected to improve and new - season planting area in Xinjiang may decrease [7]. - Egg prices may face pressure in the second quarter, and the key is to monitor the post - holiday price drop and the resulting impact on chicken culling [14]. - Apple prices for high - quality goods are stable, while lower - quality goods' prices are weakening, and the inventory removal speed is accelerating [18]. - The short - term pig market is entering a stage of increasing supply and demand, with medium - term pressure and long - term inflection points, and the futures market is volatile [18]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, corn prices in some ports decreased (e.g., - 10 in Changchun and Jinzhou, - 20 in Shekou), while starch processing profit increased by 20 [3]. - **Analysis**: Corn prices are supported in the short - term by supply constraints and downstream demand, and long - term policies are key. Starch prices are supported in the short - term by stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term consumption is crucial [3][4]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, the spot price in Liuzhou decreased by 20, and import profit from Thailand decreased by 9, from Brazil decreased by 10 [5]. - **Analysis**: The international market expects increased production, and the domestic market's short - term pricing is based on domestic sugar, with long - term trends related to global surplus [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 125, and 32S spinning profit increased by 101 [7]. - **Analysis**: Cotton demand is expected to improve, and new - season planting area in Xinjiang may decline, making it suitable for long - term investment [7]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, egg prices in some regions decreased (e.g., - 0.13 in Hebei, - 0.14 in Liaoning), and the basis decreased by 266 [14]. - **Analysis**: Egg prices rebounded due to pre - holiday stocking but weakened later. Post - holiday price drop and chicken culling are key factors for second - quarter supply [14]. Apples - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, the 1 - month basis increased by 64, the 5 - month basis increased by 138, and the 10 - month basis increased by 87 [18]. - **Analysis**: Apple trading is light, high - quality prices are stable, lower - quality prices are weakening, and inventory removal is accelerating [18]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, pig prices in some regions rebounded (e.g., + 0.20 in Henan Kaifeng, + 0.35 in Hubei Xiangyang), and the basis increased by 200 [18]. - **Analysis**: The short - term pig market is entering a stage of increasing supply and demand, with medium - term pressure and long - term inflection points, and futures market sentiment is volatile [18].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated February 2, 2026 [2] Group 2: Contract Data Contract Price and Volume - EC2602: Yesterday's close was 1716.7, down 0.05%, with a basis of 142.6, volume of 453, and open interest of 2551, down 261 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's close was 1227.0, down 1.82%, with a basis of 632.3, volume of 25237, and open interest of 35881, down 3788 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's close was 1542.8, down 2.11%, with a basis of 316.5, volume of 5606, and open interest of 12303, up 997 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's close was 1607.0, down 2.33%, with a basis of 252.3, volume of 694, and open interest of 1594, down 72 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's close was 1122.5, down 2.49%, with a basis of 736.8, volume of 2674, and open interest of 8134, down 799 [2] Month - Spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's spread was 489.7, with a daily increase of 21.9 and a weekly decrease of 36.8 [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's spread was - 315.8, with a daily increase of 10.5 and a weekly decrease of 68.4 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - The spot (European Line) "ટરનાટ" index on January 26, 2026 was 1859.31 points, down 4.86% from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on January 30, 2026 was $1418/TEU, down 11.10% from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis and Recommendations Short - Term Market - Geopolitical tensions, stable Maersk February quotes, and expected March rush shipments may prevent short - term price drops [3] Near - Month Contracts - For the 04 contract, shorting should be done with caution. Watch for significant premiums. Pay attention to PA Alliance quotes and geopolitical situations [3] Far - Month Contracts - Short the 10 contract on rallies, based on the logic of off - season and tax - refund negatives. The valuations of 06 and 08 are hard to determine, and they will fluctuate widely within a reasonable range. Operate with caution under geopolitical uncertainties [3] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - Downstream is booking February 2 (Week 6 - 7) cabins. Ships are receiving good cargo, but the pressure to attract cargo is increasing, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships during the Spring Festival [4] - The price center in Week 7 is $2140, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures. Maersk's Week 8 - 9 quotes are $1950 (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies are also keeping their quotes unchanged for now [4] Group 6: News and Geopolitical Situation Military Exercise News - On February 1, Iranian officials said media reports about an Iranian Revolutionary Guard military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz were false, and no official statement had been issued [5] Diplomatic Negotiation News - On February 2, the US signaled a willingness to negotiate with Iran, and a meeting may be held in Turkey. However, experts believe that although both sides have a willingness to negotiate, there are serious differences, and the negotiation prospects are difficult [5][6]