焦煤日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/2 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1410.00 | 0.00 | -95.00 | 98.00 | 0.71% Peak Downs | 200.00 | -0.50 | -3.00 | 9.00 | 1.00 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 916.00 | -64.00 | -32.00 | -21.00 | -21.37% Goonyella | 203.00 | 0.00 | -2.00 | 11.50 | 4.00 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1380.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 160.00 | -16.36% 盘面05 | 1165.50 | -34.00 | -76.00 | 23.50 | -15.48% | | 安泽主焦 | 1470.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -30.00 | -12. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Directory Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products from August 26, 2025, to September 1, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan's rebar, as well as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong's hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils. The prices of most steel products have decreased during this period. For example, Beijing rebar decreased by 30 yuan, Tianjin hot - rolled coil decreased by 60 yuan [1]. Basis and Spread - No information provided Production and Inventory - No information provided

仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 铁合金早报 现货 盘面 最新 品种 项目 宁夏#72 5200 -50 -100 5500 主力合约 5532 -34 -148 内蒙#72 5250 -50 -50 5600 01合约 5496 -38 -166 青海#72 5200 -50 -150 5530 05合约 5620 -58 -170 陕西#72 5200 -50 -100 5500 09合约 5336 -34 -158 陕西#75 5900 0 0 主力月基差 -32 -16 48 江苏#72 5450 -150 -150 1-5月差 -124 20 4 天津#72 5700 -50 -180 5-9月差 284 -24 -12 天津#72 1055 0 0 9-1月差 -160 4 8 天津#75 1105 0 0 双硅主力价差 -204 22 14 内蒙#6517 5680 -20 -70 5980 主力合约 5736 -56 -162 宁夏#6517 5500 -100 -120 5900 01合约 5736 -56 -162 广西#6517 5700 -50 -80 6190 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 2, 2025 [2][12][22] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract Indicators**: On September 1, the closing price of the main contract was 11,895, down 5 from the previous day and 115 from the previous week; the trading volume was 113,113, up 25,436 from the previous day but down 42,291 from the previous week; the open interest was 33,170, down 2,323 from the previous day and 13,535 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 12,440, up 180 from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week; the virtual-to-real ratio was 13.33, down 1 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week [3][13][23]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: The butadiene-styrene basis was 5 (with a weekly increase of 215), the 8 - 9 monthly spread was 125 (up 20 from the previous day and 105 from the previous week), and the 9 - 10 monthly spread was -20 (down 35 from the previous day and up 5 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,900/11,800 (down 50/up 0 from the previous day and up 0/50 from the previous week), the Transfar market price and Qilu ex - factory price were both 12,100 (unchanged from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week), CFR Northeast Asia was 1,500 (up 50 from the previous week), and CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700 (down 25 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was -41 (down 76 from the previous day and 51 from the previous week), the on - disk processing profit was -46 (down 31 from the previous day and 166 from the previous week), the import profit was -86,106 (down 51 from the previous day and 1,141 from the previous week), and the export profit was -306 (up 222 from the previous day and 308 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price Indicators**: The Shandong market price was 9,350 (down 50 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week), the Jiangsu market price was 9,350 (down 50 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week), the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,500 (unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week), and CFR China was 1,095 (unchanged) [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The carbon tetrachloride extraction profit data was unavailable, the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 186 (down 50 from the previous day and 170 from the previous week), the import profit was 377 (down 50 from the previous day and 57 from the previous week), and the export profit was -975 (up 44 from the previous day and 230 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. - **Downstream Profits**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 1,075 (unchanged from the previous day and up 138 from the previous week), the ABS production profit data was unavailable, and the SBS 791 - H production profit was 1,090 (down 125 from the previous day and 180 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. Spread Indicators - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The spread between Thai mixed rubber and butadiene rubber was 2,920 (up 70 from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week), the spread between 3L and butadiene - styrene rubber was 2,650 (unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The spread between butadiene - styrene 1502 and 1712 was 1,050 (unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week) [3][13][23].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on September 2, 2025 [2] Group 2: Futures Contract Information - For the EC2510 contract, the previous closing price was 1291.4, with a 2.41% increase, a basis of 482.2, a trading volume of 29155, an open interest of 52271, and a change in open interest of -989 [2] - For the EC2512 contract, the previous closing price was 1640.9, with a 5.00% increase, a basis of 132.7, a trading volume of 11198, an open interest of 16495, and a change in open interest of -823 [2] - For the EC2602 contract, the previous closing price was 1461.3, with a 3.78% increase, a basis of 312.3, a trading volume of 1540, an open interest of 4846, and a change in open interest of 157 [2] - For the EC2604 contract, the previous closing price was 1241.8, with a 3.11% increase, a basis of 531.8, a trading volume of 1721, an open interest of 7069, and a change in open interest of -67 [2] - For the EC2606 contract, the previous closing price was 1428.5, with a 3.81% increase, a basis of 345.1, a trading volume of 174, an open interest of 890, and a change in open interest of 23 [2] Group 3: Month - Spread Information - The EC2510 - 2512 month - spread was -349.5, with a day - on - day change of -47.8 and a week - on - week change of -24.5 [2] - The EC2512 - 2602 month - spread was 179.6, with a day - on - day change of 25.0 and a week - on - week change of 5.0 [2] Group 4: Spot Index Information - The SCHIS SCFI (European Line) index was 1773.6 points on September 1, 2025, down 10.88% from the previous period, and the previous decline was 8.71% [2] - The SCFI (European Line) was 1481 dollars/TEU on September 1, 2025, down 11.21% from the previous period, and the previous decline was 8.35% [2] - The CCFI was 1685.8 points on August 29, 2025, down 4.09% from the previous period, and the previous decline was 1.83% [2] - The NCFI was 929.56 points on August 29, 2025, down 14.25% from the previous period, and the previous decline was 8.83% [2] Group 5: Weekly Outlook - Currently, downstream customers are booking cabins for the first half of September (week 36 - 37). The average quote for week 36 is 2270 dollars (equivalent to 1600 points on the disk), and for week 37 is 2125 dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the disk) [2] - In September, the overall shipping capacity has been adjusted downward. The FAL3 of the OA Alliance will add a blank sailing in week 37. The FE3 of PA&MSC will add blank sailings in weeks 39 and 41 respectively, and the FE4 will add a blank sailing in week 41 [2] - The average weekly shipping capacity in September and October is 296,000 and 309,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as blank sailings, it will be 296,000 and 281,000 TEU [2] - The market pattern in September is loose, and the upward momentum will continue for at least the next two weeks. The decline in October depends on the shipping companies' blank - sailing behavior. In terms of valuation, the price of the 10 - contract is close to the annual low (1250 - 1300), with limited downside. The 12 - contract may decline in the short - term but is in the peak season and long - term contract negotiation season, so opportunities to go long on dips can be considered [2] Group 6: Recent European Line Quote Information - For week 36, the latest quotes from shipping companies range from 2120 to 2420 dollars, with an average of 2250 dollars (1550 points). The PA Alliance quotes 2200 - 2300 dollars, MSK quotes 2100 dollars (later rising to 2200 dollars), and the OA Alliance quotes 2300 - 2400 dollars [3] - For week 37, the latest average quote is 2100 dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the disk). MSK quotes 1900 dollars (later rising to 1950 dollars), the PA Alliance quotes 2100 - 2150 dollars, and the OA Alliance quotes 2100 - 2300 dollars [3] Group 7: Related News - On September 1, US media disclosed the US plan to rebuild Gaza, aiming to control the region for at least 10 years [4] - On September 1, the Yemeni Houthi rebels said they attacked the "ScarletRay" oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. The Israeli Defense Forces launched an air strike on Sanaa on August 28. On August 31, Houthi leader Abdul Malik Houthi said they would retaliate and escalate military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel [4] Group 8: Note - The XSI - C index is released with a three - day delay [5]

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3474.90 with a change of 45.75 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 40.58 with a change of 1.78 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1347.00 with a change of 2.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1094.00 with a change of -8.00 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 9920.00 with a change of 36.50 [1] - The latest US Dollar Index is 97.68 with a change of -0.17 [1] - The latest Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.17 with no change [1] - The latest British Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.35 with no change [1] - The latest US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is 147.17 with a change of 0.12 [1] Trading Data - The latest inventory of SHFE Silver is 1207.23 with a change of 11.23 [1] - The latest inventory of SGE Silver is 1286.84 with no change [1] - The latest SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [1] - The latest SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of -1.00 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 2, 2025 [2] 2. SP Main Contract Information - Closing Price on September 1, 2025: 5040.00 - Closing Prices and Related Data from August 26 - September 1, 2025 are provided, including dollar - converted prices, daily price changes, and basis differences in Shandong and Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai regions [3] 3. Import Profit Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, import profit data for different pulp brands from various origins are presented. For example, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion is - 54.38, and that of Chilean Silver Star is - 120.97 [4] 4. Price and Margin Information - National and Shandong regional average prices of different pulp types (coniferous, broad - leaf, natural color, and chemical mechanical pulp) from August 26 - September 1, 2025 show no change. - Indexes and profit margins of different paper types (cultural, packaging, and living paper) are also provided. The living paper index changed by 7, and the living paper profit margin changed by - 0.0573 from August 27 - September 1, 2025. - Price differences between different pulp types (coniferous - broadleaf, coniferous - natural color, coniferous - chemical mechanical, and coniferous - waste paper) are presented for different dates [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with absolute prices falling on Friday. At the end of the peak season for refinery operations in summer, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The spreads of Brent and WTI crude oil contracts strengthened slightly, while the spread of Dubai crude oil contracts strengthened significantly. Refining margins in Europe and the United States declined slightly, the crack spread of gasoline in the United States strengthened, and the crack spread of diesel in Europe fluctuated. The balance sheet for the fourth quarter is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day, and the surplus is expected to be between 1.8 million and 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories have increased slightly, commercial crude oil inventories in the United States have decreased seasonally, with absolute inventories at a historically low level for the same period, Cushing inventories have decreased, and gasoline and diesel inventories in the United States have decreased. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous levels (in Europe and Africa), and the spreads of crude oil contracts are expected to face pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Pay attention to the transition between the off - peak and peak seasons. The market is concerned about the medium - and long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $60 per barrel. Due to the adjustment of the autumn maintenance expectations in Europe, the crack spread forecast of diesel in Europe for the fourth quarter is raised [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily News - Market expects OPEC+ to pause production increase at this week's meeting. After completing the plan to restore the production cut capacity of 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule, OPEC+ members have sent mixed signals about the next step. Despite stable recent demand, the IEA points out that the global oil market will face a significant supply surplus by the end of the year. Some analysts predict that OPEC+ may be forced to cut production next year to avoid a serious supply surplus [3] - Saudi Arabia and Iraq have suspended oil supply to Indian refiner Nayara. After the two major Gulf oil - producing countries stopped supplying, Nayara's crude oil imports in August were completely dependent on Russia. Sanctions have caused payment difficulties for Nayara when purchasing crude oil from SOMO [4] - HSBC maintains its Q4 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast at $65 per barrel. If OECD region inventories increase or OPEC+ continues to increase supply, the risk will be on the downside. As summer ends and demand declines, the market supply surplus is expected to intensify in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [4] - Houthi rebels claim to have attacked an oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. In retaliation for Israel's air strike on Sanaa, the Houthi rebels said they would escalate military attacks on Israel and shipping blockades [4][5] 2. Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41% [5] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5] - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending August 15 was - 2.72 million barrels, expected - 915,000 barrels, previous value - 792,000 barrels [5] - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending August 15 was 2.343 million barrels, expected 928,000 barrels, previous value 714,000 barrels [5] - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries decreased slightly, while that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries weakened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries declined month - on - month [5][6]

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares opened higher and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.46% to 3875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.29%. Precious metals and downstream jewelry all rose, and the healthcare industry led the market, while insurance led the decline [1]. - Hong Kong stocks rebounded weakly, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.15% to 25617.42 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 2.2%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising 1.95%. Precious metals, energy, and healthcare industries pulled up, and Alibaba led the gains in the Hang Seng Index. The market turnover was HK$38.0231 billion [1]. - European stock markets closed slightly higher. U.S. stocks were closed on September 1 due to the Labor Day holiday [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Events - Trump said India's offer to reduce tariffs to zero was too late. Brazil's President Lula is convening a video conference of BRICS leaders to discuss Trump's trade policies [8][12]. - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization agreed to establish a development bank at its summit in Tianjin, and President Xi Jinping promised to increase investment and loans to partners [8][12]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency in the fall and may consider tariff exemptions for specific building materials [8][12]. Group 3: Company News IPO and Listing - Dahon manufacturer DAHON TECHNOLOGY (2543) is offering 7.92 million shares for global sale, with a maximum fundraising of HK$392 million. It has introduced cornerstone investors subscribing for HK$99.6831 million, and is expected to list on September 9, 2025 [10]. - Easy Health Group submitted a listing application, aiming to list on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Its net profit in the first half of the year increased 4.38 times year-on-year [10]. - Hesai Technology passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's listing hearing and is rumored to raise over HK$2.3 billion [10]. - China Yipin Dairy is considering an IPO in Hong Kong, raising about US$100 million [10]. Company Operations and Developments - Kuaishou - W repurchased 1.137 million shares for HK$83.716 million [14]. - Geely Auto's total sales in August increased by about 38% year-on-year, and the total sales in the first eight months increased by 47% [14]. - NIO - SW delivered 31,305 vehicles in August, a year-on-year increase of 55.2% [14]. - Liaoning Port Co., Ltd. completed a share repurchase of RMB545 million for 334 million shares, and its controlling shareholder Dalian Port increased its stake by RMB230 million [14]. - New Town Development issued new shares to an Australian company, raising a net of HK$49.4 million for the development of tokenization technology [14]. - Sihuan Pharmaceutical partnered with Shenyuan Pharmaceutical to establish an AI R & D company [14]. - Stone Pharmaceutical Group's gout treatment drug passed the consistency evaluation of the National Medical Products Administration [14]. Group 4: Industry Data PMI Data - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and RatingDog's China manufacturing PMI was 50.5 [17]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3 (final value), and the service PMI was 55.4 (final value) [17]. Other Economic Data - The U.S. personal income and expenditure in July increased by 0.4% and 0.5% month - on - month respectively [17]. - The U.S. PCE price index in July was 2.6% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index was 2.9% year - on - year [17]. Group 5: Stock Quotes Hong Kong Stocks - Stocks such as Alibaba - SW, CStone Pharmaceuticals, and WuXi Biologics had different price changes and related indicators [18][20][23]. - Some small - and medium - cap stocks had significant price increases, such as International Commercial Settlement with a 97.25% increase [24]. U.S. Stocks - Stocks like UnitedHealth, PepsiCo, and Johnson & Johnson had different price changes and related indicators [28]. A - shares - Stocks such as Source Photonics, Wuxi AppTec, and Industrial Fubon had different price changes and trading volumes [30][31][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, after the recent TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester load remained stable, inventory decreased, basis weakened, and spot processing fees weakened. In the future, TA unexpected maintenance may increase, polyester start - up will continue to rise, and PX supply will gradually return. There is an opportunity to expand processing fees by buying at low prices, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [2]. - For MEG, the recent domestic oil - based production increased load, coal - based start - up decreased slightly, overall load increased, overseas unexpected maintenance increased, port inventory decreased, and basis strengthened. In the short term, EG port inventory is expected to continue to decrease, but in the long - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate increased slightly, sales weakened, and inventory remained stable. The demand side has a slowdown in the speed of increasing load after the accumulation of finished product inventory. The start - up rate is expected to remain high, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable, the Thai cup - lump price remained stable, and rainfall affected rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Data Changes**: From August 26 to September 1, crude oil price increased by 0.1, PX processing difference decreased by 1.35, PTA load remained unchanged, and TA basis decreased by 12 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton device restarted, and a 1.2 - million - ton device planned to be under maintenance [2]. MEG - **Data Changes**: From August 26 to September 1, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged, MEG external price decreased by 3, and MEG coal - based profit decreased by 23 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device restarted; Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Data Changes**: From August 26 to September 1, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 5, and the short - fiber profit remained unchanged [2]. - **Device Changes**: Xiamen Xinhongxiang's low - melting - point device restarted, and the start - up rate increased to 92.1% [2]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Data Changes**: From August 26 to September 1, the US - dollar Thai standard spot price remained unchanged, and the RU main contract price decreased by 15 [2]. - **Key Ratios**: The difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract remained unchanged, and the difference between US - dollar Thai standard and NR main contract increased by 13 [2]. Styrene - **Data Changes**: From August 26 to September 1, the ethylene price remained unchanged, the pure benzene (CFR China) price remained unchanged, and the styrene (CFR China) price decreased by 10 [5]. - **Profit Changes**: The styrene domestic profit remained at - 352, the EPS domestic profit decreased by 30, and the PS domestic profit increased by 19 [5].