Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and it weakened slightly after the holiday. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from the low point but remained weak year - on - year. The high - sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [3]. - In terms of inventory, there was a significant build - up of residual fuel oil in Singapore, a significant drawdown of high - sulfur floating storage, a slight build - up of residual fuel oil in ARA, a drawdown of residual fuel oil in Fujairah, a drawdown of high - sulfur floating storage, and a slight build - up of residual fuel oil in EIA. The recent conflict escalation in Venezuela has a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around - 12. The high - sulfur spot market remained loose, and attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium of heavy raw materials. The low - sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [10]. 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, LGO - Brent M1, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 from 2026/01/08 to 2026/01/14 showed different changes. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 1.20, while Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.42 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, Singapore VLSFO M1, Singapore Gasoil M1, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed from 2026/01/08 to 2026/01/14. For instance, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 16.62 from 2026/01/13 to 2026/01/14 [1][9]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - The FOB 380cst, FOB VLSFO, 380 basis, high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference, and low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference of Singapore fuel oil spot had changes from 2026/01/08 to 2026/01/14. The high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 0.4, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference increased by 0.2 [2]. Domestic FU - The prices of FU 01, FU 05, FU 09, FU 01 - 05, FU 05 - 09, and FU 09 - 01 in the domestic market changed from 2026/01/08 to 2026/01/14. For example, the price of FU 01 increased by 62 [2]. Domestic LU - The prices of LU 01, LU 05, LU 09, LU 01 - 05, LU 05 - 09, and LU 09 - 01 in the domestic market changed from 2026/01/08 to 2026/01/14. The price of LU 01 increased by 47 [3].

Report Summary Price Performance - London Gold: The latest price is $4,606.50, with a change of -$16.55 [1] - London Silver: The latest price is $91.10, with a change of +$5.28 [1] - London Platinum: The latest price is $2,388.00, with a change of +$14.00 [1] - London Palladium: The latest price is $1,883.00, with a change of +$18.00 [1] - LME Copper: The latest price is $13,247.50, with a change of +$180.00 [1] - Dollar Index: The latest value is 99.08, with a change of -0.11 [1] - Euro to Dollar: The latest exchange rate is 1.16, with no change [1] - Pound to Dollar: The latest exchange rate is 1.34, with no change [1] - Dollar to Yen: The latest exchange rate is 158.47, with a change of -0.69 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver Inventory: The latest inventory is 13,510.12, with a change of -40.78 [1] - SHFE Silver Inventory: The latest inventory is 628.70, with a change of -1.37 [1] - Gold ETF Holdings: The latest holding is 1,074.23, with no change [1] - Silver ETF Holdings: The latest holding is 16,242.22, with a change of -78.94 [1] - SGE Silver Inventory: Data not provided [1] - SGE Gold Deferred Fee Payment Direction: The latest direction is 1, with a change of -1.00 [1] - SGE Silver Deferred Fee Payment Direction: The latest direction is 2, with no change [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the potential US refined copper tariff - expected inventory transfer to the US and investment fund inflow. Future copper price performance depends on terminal demand under high - price conditions, US restocking, and Chinese demand recovery. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after the Spring Festival [1] - Aluminum's spot and futures prices are dominated by expected trading, with increased price fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously judged, and the strong expectation can support the current high price [1][2] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary supply reduction at the end of the year. The price may not decline significantly. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spread [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and high - level inventories with a slight reduction. The price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] - Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term, and it can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. However, there are risks of large - scale inventory accumulation in the overseas LME in the long - term [13] - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] - Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 25, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1252, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 27212. The spot import profit increased by 191.03, and the three - month import profit increased by 282.64 [1] - **Market Outlook**: The recent increase in copper prices is due to the potential US refined copper tariff and investment fund inflow. Future performance depends on terminal demand, US restocking, and Chinese demand [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 370, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 370, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 380. The domestic alumina price decreased by 1, and the import alumina price remained unchanged. The Shanghai aluminum social inventory had no change record, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged [1] - **Market Situation**: The spot and futures prices are affected by expected trading. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than expected, with poor automobile terminal sales and good short - term demand from photovoltaic installations [1][2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of zinc remained at 70, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 240, the Tianjin zinc ingot price increased by 270, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price increased by 260. The zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory remained unchanged [5] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC of zinc is accelerating its decline. The domestic zinc ore is tightening marginally from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally normal overseas [5] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage in the monthly spread [5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained at 55.0, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1000, and the Jinchuan premium decreased by 150. The LME inventory increased by 510, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 702 [6] - **Market Situation**: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the waste stainless steel price increased by 150. The inventory is at a high level with a slight reduction [11] - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of lead decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference remained unchanged, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3725, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 3200 [12] - **Market Situation**: Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot import profit decreased by 1317.95, the spot export profit decreased by 2293.37, and the tin position increased by 11997. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 10 [12] - **Market Situation**: Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term [13] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 120, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 120, the 553 East China basis decreased by 120, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 120, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 12 [16] - **Market Situation**: Supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the main - contract basis increased by 8540, the near - month contract basis increased by 3500, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 260 [19] - **Market Situation**: Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19]

1. Global Asset Market Performance 1.1 Bond Yields - 10 - year Treasury bond yields in major economies: US 4.133%, UK 4.339%, France 3.489%, Germany 2.813%, Italy 3.449%, Spain 3.214%, Switzerland 0.224%, Greece 3.319%, Japan 2.179%, Brazil 6.200%, China 1.845%, Australia 4.717%, New Zealand 4.480 [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond yields in major economies: US 3.512%, UK 3.619%, Germany 2.073%, Japan 1.169%, Italy 2.168%, China (1Y yield) 1.254%, Australia 4.034 [3] 1.2 Exchange Rates - USD exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.393, South Africa zar 16.406, Korean won 1463.850, Thai baht 31.430, Malaysian ringgit 4.049 [3] - RMB exchange rates: on - shore 6.973, off - shore 6.970, mid - price 7.012, 12 - month NDF 6.850 [3] 1.3 Stock Indices - Major economy stock indices: S&P 500 6926.600, Dow Jones Industrial Average 49149.630, Nasdaq 23471.750, Mexican index 67403.080, UK index 10184.350, France CAC 8330.970, Germany DAX 25286.240, Spanish index 17695.700, Russian index (not available), Nikkei 54341.230, Hang Seng Index 26999.810, Shanghai Composite Index 4126.093, Taiwan index 30941.780, Korean index 4723.100, Indian index 9032.584, Thai index 1244.300, Malaysian index 1710.910, Australian index 9151.810, emerging - economy index 1479.390 [3] 1.4 Credit Bond Indices - Credit bond indices: US investment - grade 3559.380, Eurozone investment - grade 267.017, emerging - economy investment - grade 290.810, US high - yield 2928.070, Eurozone high - yield 412.500, emerging - economy high - yield 1826.996 [3] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 2.1 Index Performance - Closing prices: A - share 4126.09, CSI 300 4741.93, SSE 50 3112.07, ChiNext 3349.14, CSI 500 8227.70 [4] - Percentage changes: A - share - 0.31%, CSI 300 - 0.40%, SSE 50 - 0.67%, ChiNext 0.82%, CSI 500 1.04% [4] 2.2 Valuation - PE (TTM): CSI 300 14.35, SSE 50 11.93, CSI 500 37.33, S&P 500 27.67, Germany DAX 19.62 [4] -环比 changes: CSI 300 - 0.11, SSE 50 - 0.13, CSI 500 0.34, S&P 500 - 0.15, Germany DAX - 0.10 [4] 2.3 Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate: S&P 500 - 0.52, Germany DAX 2.28 [4] -环比 changes: S&P 500 0.06, Germany DAX 0.06 [4] 2.4 Fund Flows - Latest values: A - share - 616.58, Main Board - 873.11, ChiNext 170.54, CSI 300 - 319.15 [4] - 5 - day average values: A - share - 453.60, Main Board - 518.16, ChiNext 52.21, CSI 300 - 202.61 [4] 3. Other Trading Data 3.1 Stock Market Trading Volume - Latest trading volume values: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 39413.89, CSI 300 8913.34, SSE 50 2160.78, Small - and - medium - sized board 7888.95, ChiNext 11515.33 [5] -环比 changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 2904.04, CSI 300 902.79, SSE 50 272.25, Small - and - medium - sized board 398.47, ChiNext 738.14 [5] 3.2 Futures Basis - Basis: IF - 1.93, IH 1.93, IC - 29.90 [5] - Basis amplitude: IF - 0.04%, IH 0.06%, IC - 0.36% [5] 3.3 Treasury Futures - Closing prices: T2303 107.93, TF2303 105.66, T2306 107.87, TF2306 105.65 [5] - Percentage changes: T2303 0.07%, TF2303 0.03%, T2306 0.08%, TF2306 0.04% [5] 3.4 Fund Rates - Fund rates: R001 1.4913%, R007 1.6037%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.6000% [5] - Daily changes (BP): R001 - 8.00, R007 3.00, SHIBOR - 3M 0.00 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, due to increased geopolitical risks, the market went up. The 02 - 03 month spread was 61 (-8), the 03 - 04 month spread was -209 (+2), and the 02 - 04 month spread was -148 (-6). As of 9 p.m., the FBI and CP paper futures prices rose to $533.49 and $535.49 respectively [4]. - The domestic market rose and then fluctuated. The 02 basis was 179 (+51), the 02 - 03 month spread was 85 (-34), the 03 - 04 month spread was -192 (-8), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6,218 (-180). The price of domestic gas increased, with Shandong at 4,400 (+40), East China at 4,467 (+70), and South China at 4,840 (+75). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after 4,390 (-90). The absolute price of paper futures increased. The FEI and CP month spreads decreased slightly, and the MB month spread increased slightly. The oil - gas ratio fluctuated. Both domestic and international markets strengthened, with PG - FEI reaching 86.7 (+9.7) and PG - CP reaching 80 (+9). The CIF discount for propane in East China, China, was 79 (+13). The AFB was significantly repaired but still poor [4]. - The port storage capacity ratio was 0.14 pct due to limited arrivals. Refineries had a small destocking of -0.47%, and external sales increased by +1.07%. Overall, the domestic and international valuations were high. From the perspective of external market drivers, the short - term supply and demand remained tight, but the buying interest for Middle Eastern shipments in February weakened. After the fog in the United States dissipated, the supply pressure was still high, and the end of the combustion demand was approaching. It was expected that the fundamentals of the external market would weaken. The valuation of the domestic 02 contract was neutral, and the drivers should focus on whether there would be negative feedback under the low profit of PDH and the subsequent situation of warehouse receipts. The valuation of the 3 - 4 month spread was high, and the subsequent situation of warehouse receipts should be focused on [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Price Data** - On January 8 - 14, 2026, prices of various products such as South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - after C4, and propane CFR South China were provided, along with their daily changes. For example, on January 14, South China LPG was 5,045 (compared to 4,840 on January 9), and East China LPG was 4,467 (compared to 4,400 on January 9) [4]. - **Market Trends** - The external and internal markets showed different trends. The external market was affected by geopolitical risks, short - term supply - demand tightness, and future supply pressure. The internal market had price fluctuations, changes in basis and month spreads, and changes in warehouse receipts [4].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints provided in the text Group 3: Glass Summary Price and Contract Information - From January 7 - 14, 2026, the price of 5mm glass plates from different manufacturers showed fluctuations. For example, the price of 5mm glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 985.0 to 996.0, while the price of FG05 contract decreased from 1148.0 to 1096.0 [2] - The FG 5 - 9 spread decreased from -105.0 to -115.0, and the 05 Hebei basis increased from -164.0 to -116.0 [2] Production and Sales - Shahe's glass production - sales rate was 91, Hubei's was 91, East China's was 95, and South China's was 110 [2] - Shahe factory's glass production - sales declined, with poor spot - futures trading; Shahe traders' prices were around 980 with average sales; Hubei factories' prices were around 990 with declining sales; Hubei's mid - stream spot - futures trading for 03 contract at -80 was also poor [2] Profit and Cost - North China's coal - fired glass profit decreased from 86.4 to 86.2, and the cost increased from 897.6 to 893.8 [2] - South China's natural gas glass profit remained at -188.1, and North China's natural gas glass profit decreased from -358.6 to -366.8 [2] - The 05FG and 09FG on - disk natural gas profits decreased from -263.8 to -265.9 and from -164.6 to -163.9 respectively [2] Group 4: Soda Ash Summary Price and Contract Information - From January 7 - 14, 2026, the price of heavy soda ash in different regions changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased from 1230.0 to 1170.0, and the SA05 contract price decreased from 1271.0 to 1222.0 [2] - The SA01 Shahe basis increased from 14.0 to 34.0, and the SA monthly spread 01 - 05 decreased from -76.0 to -86.0 [2] Industry Situation - The upstream inventory of soda ash slightly decreased, and the mid - stream inventory slightly increased; the production of Yuanxing's second - phase project increased [2] Profit and Cost - North China's ammonia - soda process profit increased from -211.8 to -191.8, and North China's combined - soda process profit increased from -303.0 to -284.0 [2]

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | MIAU.L.O.HOLUMEIN EVEN | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | 12/15 -23 | 1/8 28 | 1/12 -7 | 1/13 10 | 1/14 -18 | 日度变化 -28 | । | | | 华东基差(镇江库) 华南基差(佛山库) | 17 -33 | 18 -2 | 13 -27 | 30 -10 | 2 -38 | -28 -28 | | | 基差&月差 | 01-03 | -30 | -41 | -57 | - 20 | -69 | -10 | | | | | -19 | -15 | | | | -1 | | | | 02-03 | | | -15 | -14 | -15 | | | | | 03-06 BU主力合约(02) | -34 2963 | 8 3132 | -5 3157 | -15 3140 | -6 3168 | 9 28 | | | | 成交量 | 327805 | 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **PTA**: Near - term TA device slightly reduces load, polyester load remains stable, inventory continues to decline, but polyester maintenance plans are intensively released, basis weakens, and spot processing fees shrink. PX domestic operation is at a high level, and overseas load increases. In the future, with high PX profits, domestic supply will remain high and overseas operation will recover, reducing the de - stocking amplitude in the far - month. TA's own processing fees have also improved, and short - term upward space is limited before the Spring Festival due to polyester maintenance plans. However, the overall pattern has not changed before new device production. Attention should be paid to the progress of overseas operation improvement [1] - **MEG**: Near - term domestic oil - based production has some load reduction, overseas maintenance increases month - on - month. Port inventory decreases at the beginning of the week due to low arrivals, and the arrival forecast rebounds during the week. The basis remains weak, and coal - based efficiency improves month - on - month. Recently, domestic supply is stable with a slight increase, overseas maintenance increases, overall inventory accumulation continues, and the absolute inventory is not low. The pattern is expected to remain weak under new production, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The front - end device operates stably, with an operation rate of 97.6%. Production and sales improve month - on - month, and inventory slightly decreases. On the demand side, the operation rate of the polyester yarn end remains stable, raw material inventory decreases, and finished product inventory accumulates, with stable efficiency. After raw material price adjustments, the spot processing fee of staple fiber has improved, but the futures price remains low. Downstream demand is expected to continue to weaken seasonally. With limited inventory pressure, the operation rate remains high. It has a medium - low valuation and weak driving force, with limited overall contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1] - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: No specific overall view on the trend is provided in the report, only price data and changes are presented - **Styrene and Related Products**: No specific overall view on the trend is provided in the report, only price and profit data and their changes are presented 3. Summary by Related Content PTA - **Price and Spread Data**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, crude oil prices rose from $62.0 to $65.0, PX processing fees decreased from $345.0 to $337.0, PTA spot prices fluctuated, and the basis was 2605(- 70) [1] - **Device and Operation Conditions**: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device are under maintenance. Near - term TA device slightly reduces load, and polyester load remains at 78.2% [1] - **Market Outlook**: PX high - profit situation leads to high domestic supply and overseas operation recovery, reducing the far - month de - stocking amplitude. TA processing fees improve, and short - term upward space is limited [1] MEG - **Price and Spread Data**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, MEG prices fluctuated slightly, and the basis was around 05(- 148) [1] - **Device and Operation Conditions**: Inner Mongolia Yankuang's 400,000 - ton device increases load. Near - term domestic oil - based production has some load reduction, and overseas maintenance increases month - on - month [1] - **Market Outlook**: Domestic supply is stable with a slight increase, overseas maintenance increases, overall inventory accumulates, and the pattern is expected to remain weak [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Spread Data**: The spot price is around 6529, and the market basis is around 02 - 80 [1] - **Device and Operation Conditions**: The front - end device operates stably at an operation rate of 97.6%, production and sales improve, and inventory slightly decreases. The operation rate of the polyester yarn end remains stable [1] - **Market Outlook**: After raw material price adjustments, the spot processing fee improves, but the futures price remains low. Downstream demand weakens seasonally, and with limited inventory pressure, the operation rate remains high [1] Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Data**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, prices of various types of rubber, such as Shanghai whole - milk rubber and Thai cup - lump rubber, fluctuated, with some showing daily and weekly increases or decreases [1] Styrene and Related Products - **Price and Profit Data**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, prices of styrene and related products, such as ethylene and pure benzene, changed, and the production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS also fluctuated [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For the EC2602 contract, it is moving towards the delivery logic, and its subsequent performance will be affected by the spot market. With a neutral valuation currently, it is not recommended to enter the market [3]. - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. The expected decline in the Week 5 MSK opening price may suppress the market, but the increasing rush - shipping scale due to falling freight rates may weaken the price decline slope in March. The valuation fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and it is advisable to watch for potential correction opportunities [3]. - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for the far - month contracts. Considering significant geopolitical disturbances in the far - month contracts, it is generally recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On January 15, 2026, the closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 1718.0 (down 0.14%), 1230.5 (up 2.57%), 1424.1 (up 0.75%), 1532.6 (up 0.18%), and 1118.0 (up 0.96%) respectively. The trading volumes were 5642, 45075, 1903, 212, and 1822, and the open interests were 10461 (down 1401), 40044 (up 1274), 3130 (down 134), 1306 (down 53), and 7625 (up 179) [2]. - **Month - spread**: The month - spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 were 487.5 and - 193.6 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 33.2 and 20.2 [2]. - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European Line) on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39 points, up 8.94% from the previous period; the SCFI (European Line) on January 9, 2026, was 1719 dollars/TEU, up 1.72% [2]. Spot Market Conditions - **Week 3**: MSK opened at 2600 dollars, other alliances had small declines. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points [4]. - **Week 4**: MSK opened at 2700 dollars, other alliances remained stable. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points [4]. - **Week 5**: MSK opened at 2400 dollars (down 300 dollars from the previous week), YML quoted 2650 dollars, MSC quoted 2640 dollars. The overall central price was 2650 dollars (equivalent to 1855 points). On Wednesday, YML offered special prices of 2250 dollars for two routes [4]. News - **Palestinian Cease - fire Agreement**: On January 15, Palestinian factions reached a consensus on the second - stage requirements of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and on establishing an independent committee to manage Gaza [5]. - **US and Iran Situation**: The US special envoy launched the second stage of the "ten - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict; Iran closed its airspace; Trump hinted at postponing military action against Iran, causing international oil prices to drop by 4% [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product morning report released by the research center's agricultural product team on January 15, 2026 [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From January 8 - 14, 2026, corn prices in Changchun remained at 2160, and in some regions like Jinzhou, there were price changes; the corn base - point increased by 12; the import profit increased by 7; for starch, the base - point increased by 18, and the processing profit remained unchanged [2] Market Analysis - In the short - term, corn prices are expected to be moderately strong due to stable market sentiment, limited supply increase, low channel inventory, and downstream stocking expectations. In the long - term, focus on import and domestic auction policies. For starch, in the short - term, with stable supply and demand, the spot price is expected to be moderately strong, and focus on pre - holiday downstream stocking. In the long - term, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and post - season inventory changes [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot price in Nanning increased by 10, the base - point decreased by 46, the import profit from Thailand increased by 63, and from Brazil increased by 62, while the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6] Market Analysis - In the international sugar market, the 25/26 northern hemisphere sugar season is expected to have increased production, and attention should be paid to whether the expected increase materializes. In the domestic market, in the short - term, the supply pressure of raw sugar has decreased, and the pricing can refer to domestic sugar costs and spot prices. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price will seek the cost of out - of - quota imports [6] Group 4: Cotton Price Data - From January 8 - 14, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 5, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 331, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 10 [19] Market Analysis - The low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, favorable domestic consumption - promotion policies, and good export performance, cotton demand is expected to continue to improve. Also, the planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease in the new season, so cotton is suitable for long - term long positions [8] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From January 8 - 14, 2026, the egg price in Hubei increased by 0.07, the basis decreased by 20, the price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.05, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.02 [14] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key to the future decline in inventory lies in the culling rhythm. If culling accelerates, it is beneficial to egg prices in the second quarter. Currently, farmers in Hebei still expect the Spring Festival stocking market. If the spot price remains low before Laba, a large - scale culling is expected [15] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 1 - month basis decreased by 22, the 5 - month basis decreased by 155, and the 10 - month basis increased by 57 [17][18] Market Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple production area is still weak. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of medium and low - quality apples are loose. As of January 7, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the inventory - removal speed increased slightly. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and in the medium - term, the pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the inventory - removal situation [18] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From January 8 - 14, 2026, the price in Hubei Xiangyang and Anhui Hefei decreased by 0.05, and the basis decreased by 215 [18] Market Analysis - The weekend spot price of pigs first rose and then fell. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of increased supply and demand, and there may still be a short - term mismatch between supply and demand. The improvement of capacity reduction has a positive impact on long - term sentiment, but price increases depend on further capacity and inventory reduction in the near - term. Attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [18]