Yong An Qi Huo

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波动率数据日报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 08:11
Report Summary Core View - The report provides daily volatility data, including the implied volatility index, historical volatility, and their spread for various financial and commodity options [2]. - The implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day for financial options and the implied volatility change trend of the main contract for commodity options, calculated through weighted two - level implied volatility of at - the - money options in the main month [2]. - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility compared to historical volatility [2]. Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Analysis - Multiple charts show the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and their differences (IV - HV) for different options such as 300 Index, 50ETF, 1000 Index, 500ETF, and various commodity options including beans, corn, sugar, cotton, methanol, etc [3]. Implied Volatility and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, while a low quantile means it is low [4]. - The implied volatility quantile rankings are provided for different options, e.g., 300 Index has a quantile of 0.90, 50ETF has 0.63, and corn has 0.51 [5]. - The historical volatility quantile rankings are also presented, but specific data is not fully detailed in the given text [4].
集运早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 07:53
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the first half of September (week 36 - 37). The average quote for week 36 is $2,270 (equivalent to 1,600 points), and for week 37 is $2,125 (equivalent to 1,450 points). Different shipping alliances have different quotes [1]. - In terms of fundamentals, the overall shipping capacity in September has been adjusted down. The OA Alliance's FAL3 will have an additional suspension in week 37. PA & MSC's FE3 will have additional suspensions in weeks 39 and 41 respectively, and FE4 will have an additional suspension in week 41. The average weekly shipping capacities in September and October are 296,000 and 309,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN ships as suspended, the capacities are 296,000 and 281,000 TEU. The situation in September is relatively loose, and the driving force will continue to be weak for at least the next two weeks. The decline in October depends on the shipping companies' suspension actions. However, in terms of valuation, the 10 - contract is close to the annual low (1,250 - 1,300), with limited downside. The 12 - contract has a short - term downward driving force, but it is in the peak season and the long - term contract negotiation season, so opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contract Price and Related Data - EC2510 closed at 1,261.0 with a decline of 1.87%, trading volume of 25,228, and open interest of 53,260 with a decrease of 988. EC2512 closed at 1,562.7 with a decline of 0.53%, trading volume of 7,111, and open interest of 17,323 with an increase of 1,126. EC2602 closed at 1,408.1 with an increase of 0.58%, trading volume of 570, and open interest of 4,689 with an increase of 21. EC2604 closed at 1,204.4 with a decline of 0.95%, trading volume of 1,350, and open interest of 7,136 with an increase of 469. EC2606 closed at 1,376.1 with an increase of 0.15%, trading volume of 89, and open interest of 867 with a decrease of 5 [1]. - The month - spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 301.7 compared to - 286.0 the previous day and - 304.5 two days ago, a change of - 15.7. The month - spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 154.6 compared to 171.0 the previous day and 179.7 two days ago, a change of - 16.4 [1]. Spot Freight Index - The SCFI (European route) was updated weekly on Mondays and Fridays. As of August 25 and 29, 2025, it was 1,990.2 and 1,481 respectively, with a decline of 8.71% and 11.21% compared to the previous period, and a decline of 2.47% and 8.35% compared to the period before that [1]. - The CCFI was updated weekly. As of August 29, 2025, it was 1,685.8, a decline of 4.09% compared to the previous period and a decline of 1.83% compared to the period before that [1]. - The NCFI was updated weekly. As of August 29, 2025, it was 929.56, a decline of 14.23% compared to the previous period and a decline of 8.83% compared to the period before that [1]. Recent European Route Quote Situation - For week 36, the latest quotes from shipping companies range from $2,120 - 2,420, with an average of $2,250 (1,550 points). The PA Alliance's quotes are $2,200 - 2,300, MSK's initial quote was $2,100 (later increased to $2,200), and the OA Alliance's quotes are $2,300 - 2,400 [2]. - For week 37, the average quote is $2,125 (equivalent to 1,450 points). MSK's quote was initially $1,900 (later increased to $1,940), the PA Alliance's quotes are $2,100 - 2,200, and the OA Alliance's quotes are $2,100 - 2,300 [1][2]. Related News - On August 31, Israel is set to expand military operations, which may cut off humanitarian aid to Gaza City. Israel will block the airdrop of aid supplies and reduce the number of aid trucks entering Gaza City in the coming days and is preparing to relocate the local population to southern Gaza [3]. - On August 31, multiple key figures were killed in an Israeli air - strike, and the Yemeni Houthi rebels vowed revenge. Hamas confirmed the death of its military leader Muhammad Sinwar [3]. - On August 30, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by President Trump were illegal. These measures can remain in effect until October 14 to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. The ruling does not affect tariffs imposed under other regulations, such as steel and aluminum tariffs [3].
永安期货铁合金早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 06:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, prices vary by region and grade, with recent price changes in different regions such as a -70 yuan/day change for Ningxia 72 and -50 yuan/day for Inner Mongolia 72 [1]. - For silicon manganese, prices also vary by region and grade, and there are price changes in different regions, like Inner Mongolia 6517 with a -20 yuan/day change [3]. - Price trends for silicon iron and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented in multiple graphs for different regions and grades [2][6]. Supply - The production of silicon iron by 136 Chinese enterprises (monthly and weekly data) is presented, with data from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - The production of silicon manganese in China (weekly data) and the procurement volume and price of silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly data) from 2021 - 2025 are shown [6]. Demand - The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, including the demand for silicon manganese (in ten thousand tons, Steel Union caliber) [4][7]. - Data on the production of related products such as crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and metal magnesium are provided, which can reflect the demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese [4]. Inventory - Inventory data of silicon iron from 60 sample enterprises in China (weekly data) and in different regions like Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5]. - Inventory data of silicon manganese, including the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and total inventory, are shown from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost and Profit - Cost and profit data of silicon iron and silicon manganese are provided, including production costs, spot profits, and export profits in different regions from 2021 - 2025 [5][7].
永安期货有色早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 06:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper price broke upward this week. The market order transactions remained resilient, and the difference between refined and scrap copper prices was tight. There are concerns about anode copper production in September and October, and potential squeeze - out risks should be noted [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, with imports providing an increment from January to July. August was a seasonal off - peak for demand, but there was a slight improvement in the second half of the month. In September, inventory is expected to decline. Pay attention to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - The zinc price fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply increased in August, and demand was seasonally weak domestically but had some resistance overseas. Short - term rebound is expected, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take a short - position in the long - term. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and positive spreads between months can be noted [4]. - For nickel, the production of pure nickel remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while overseas inventory remained stable. The situation in Indonesia needs continuous attention [6]. - The stainless - steel market had some passive production cuts by steel mills. Demand was mainly for rigid needs, costs were relatively stable, and inventory remained unchanged. Follow the situation of the Indonesian parade [9]. - The lead price fluctuated this week. Supply was expected to be tight, demand improved slightly, but inventory was at a high level. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [11]. - The tin price oscillated upward this week. The domestic market was in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold positions at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [14]. - For industrial silicon, the production in Xinjiang is expected to accelerate, and the southwest production is stable. The short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption of production of Hesheng. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. - The lithium carbonate price decreased this week. The core contradiction is the long - term over - capacity and short - term supply disruptions. The price has strong downward support [19][20]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 55, the spread increased by 133, and the LME inventory increased by 950. The copper price broke upward this week [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Market orders were resilient, and the difference between refined and scrap copper prices was tight. Some regions' scrap copper rod production decreased, and there are concerns about anode copper production in September and October [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 100. Supply increased slightly, and demand was in a seasonal off - peak in August [1]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: In September, inventory is expected to decline. Pay attention to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory situation [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 120, and the LME inventory decreased by 1500. The zinc price fluctuated narrowly this week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased in August, domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand had some resistance. Short - term rebound is expected, and long - term short - position is recommended [4]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 500, and the LME inventory decreased by 132. The production of pure nickel remained at a high level, and demand was weak [6]. - **Situation in Indonesia**: The parade in Indonesia turned into a riot, and the situation needs continuous attention [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the price of 430 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 30. Some steel mills had passive production cuts [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Demand was mainly for rigid needs, costs were relatively stable, and inventory remained unchanged. Follow the situation of the Indonesian parade [9]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the lead price oscillated, the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000, and the exchange inventory reached a historical high of 70,000 tons [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was expected to be tight, demand improved slightly, but inventory was at a high level. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [11]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the tin price oscillated upward, the LME inventory increased by 115, and the position increased by 15,147 [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic market was in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold positions at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan changed, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased. The production in Xinjiang is expected to accelerate [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption of production of Hesheng. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From August 25 - 29, the SMM electric and industrial carbon prices decreased by 350, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 930. The price decreased this week [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The core contradiction is the long - term over - capacity and short - term supply disruptions. The price has strong downward support [19][20].
永安期货钢材早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 06:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from August 25th to August 29th, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. For example, the price of Beijing's rebar on August 25th was 3270, and on August 26th it dropped to 3220 [1] - The price changes of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils in Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong are also given. For instance, the price change of Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was - 40, and that of Lecong's cold - rolled coil was - 120 [1] Output and Inventory No information provided Basis and Spread No information provided
永安期货贵金属早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 06:20
Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3429.15, with a change of 21.50 [1] - London Silver latest price is 38.80, with a change of -0.14 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1345.00, with a change of 6.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1102.00, with a change of 12.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 64.01, with a change of -0.59 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 9883.50, with a change of 85.50 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 97.85, with a change of -0.02 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.17, with a change of 0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.35, with a change of 0.00 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 147.05, with a change of 0.11 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS latest is 1.82, with a change of 0.01 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory latest is 16118.83, with a change of 32.27 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory latest is 1196.00, with a change of 17.48 [1] - Gold ETF持仓 latest is 977.68, with a change of 9.74 [1] - Silver ETF持仓 latest is 15310.00, with a change of -22.59 [1] - SGE Silver inventory change not provided, latest not provided [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction latest is 1, change is 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, change is 1.00 [1] Group 3: Data Source - The above chart data sources are Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [6]
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 06:20
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, imports are high, and inland supply is expected to return. As traditional demand enters the peak season, attention should be paid to whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [1]. - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral, 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, external markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable, import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the commissioning of new devices in 2025 [7]. - For polypropylene, upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard spreads are neutral, import profit is around -700, and exports have been good this year. PDH profit is around -400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, supply pressure can be alleviated [7]. - For PVC, the basis is maintained at 01 - 270, downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, and static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly. Cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral [7]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801, Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2302 to 2222, and other regional prices also showed certain changes. Import profit remained at 322, and the daily change of盘面MTO profit was 0 [1]. - **Analysis**: Port inventory accumulation is obvious, imports are high, and inland supply is expected to return. Traditional demand will enter the peak season later, and attention should be paid to the relationship between supply and demand and inventory changes [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 840 (except for a slight increase on August 27), and prices of various regions in China and related indicators such as import profit, basis, and inventory also changed. The主力期货 price dropped by 71 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - **Analysis**: Overall inventory is neutral, external markets are stable, import profit has no further increase, non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, and LD is weakening. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion, US quotations, and new device commissioning [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, prices of raw materials such as Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene, and prices of various regions in China and related indicators such as export profit, basis, and inventory all changed. The主力期货 price dropped by 46 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - **Analysis**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is -60, non - standard spreads are neutral, imports are at a loss, and exports are good. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. Supply pressure can be alleviated under certain conditions [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, prices of raw materials such as Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda, and prices of different production methods in various regions and related indicators such as export profit, comprehensive profit, and basis all changed. The price of电石 - based PVC in East China dropped by 20 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - **Analysis**: The basis is maintained at a certain level, downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, and attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, as well as cost, downstream performance, and the macro situation [7].
永安期货纸浆早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 06:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on August 29, 2025, was 5018.00 [3]. - The price trends from August 25 - 29, 2025, showed fluctuations, with a 0.31987% increase on August 29 compared to the previous day [3]. - The corresponding dollar - converted prices and basis differences in Shandong and Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai regions were also presented [3]. Import Pulp Information - Import profits for different pulp brands (Canada's Golden Lion, Lion, and Chile's Silver Star) were calculated, showing negative values, indicating potential losses in imports [4]. Pulp Price Averages - National and Shandong regional average prices of different pulp types (coniferous, broad - leaf, natural color, and chemical mechanical pulp) remained unchanged from August 25 - 29, 2025 [4]. Paper Index and Profit Margin Information - Indexes of cultural paper (double - offset, double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper remained stable from August 26 - 29, 2025 [4]. - Profit margin estimates for different types of paper also showed no change from August 26 - 29, 2025 [4]. Pulp Price Difference Information - Price differences between coniferous pulp and other types of pulp (broad - leaf, natural color, chemical mechanical, and waste paper) were provided for August 25 - 29, 2025, showing some fluctuations [4].
大类资产早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 06:20
Report Overview - The report provides a snapshot of the global asset market performance on September 1, 2025, including government bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [2] Global Asset Market Performance Government Bond Yields - **10 - year government bond yields**: In the US, it was 4.230 on August 29, 2025, with a latest change of 0.025, a one - week change of - 0.025, a one - month change of 0.012, and a one - year change of 0.428. Different countries showed various trends in yield changes over different time frames [2] - **2 - year government bond yields**: For example, the US 2 - year yield was 3.590 on August 29, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.020, a one - week change of - 0.150, a one - month change of - 0.080, and a one - year change of - 0.470 [2] Exchange Rates - **Dollar against major emerging economies' currencies**: Against the Brazilian real, the exchange rate was 5.430 on August 29, 2025, with a latest change of 0.28%, a one - week change of 0.07%, a one - month change of - 2.03%, and a one - year change of - 1.08% [2] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB was 7.131 on August 29, 2025, with a latest change of 0.00%, a one - week change of - 0.51%, a one - month change of - 0.87%, and a one - year change of - 0.01% [2] Stock Indices - **Major economies' stock indices**: The S&P 500 was at 6460.260 on August 29, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.64%, a one - week change of - 0.10%, a one - month change of 3.56%, and a one - year change of 14.93% [2] - **Asian stock indices**: The Hang Seng Index was 25077.620 on August 29, 2025, with a latest change of 0.32%, a one - week change of - 1.03%, a one - month change of 2.33%, and a one - year change of 44.20% [2] Credit Bond Indices - **Investment - grade and high - yield bond indices**: The US investment - grade credit bond index was 3463.740 on August 29, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.25%, a one - week change of - 0.08%, a one - month change of 0.35%, and a one - year change of 3.38% [2] Futures Trading Data Stock Index Futures - **Index performance**: The A - share index closed at 3857.93 with a 0.37% increase. The CSI 300 closed at 4496.76 with a 0.74% increase [3] - **Fund flow**: The latest A - share fund flow was - 952.48, and the 5 - day average was - 1067.85 [3] - **Trading volume**: The latest trading volume of the two Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 27982.97, with a month - on - month change of - 1725.06 [3] Treasury Bond Futures - **Closing prices and changes**: The T00 treasury bond futures closed at 108.050 with a - 0.15% change, and the TF00 closed at 105.665 with a - 0.04% change [4] - **Funding rates**: The R001 funding rate was 1.4184% with a daily change of - 14.00 BP, and the R007 was 1.5171% with a - 4.00 BP change [4]
原油成品油早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 06:20
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the absolute price declined on Friday. At the end of the peak refinery operation season in summer, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The contango of Brent and WTI crude oil strengthened slightly, while that of Dubai crude oil strengthened significantly. The refining margins of European and American refineries declined slightly, the gasoline crack spread in the United States strengthened, and the diesel crack spread in Europe fluctuated. The balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories have slightly increased, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have decreased seasonally, the absolute inventory is at a historically low level in the same period, Cushing inventories have decreased, and U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories have decreased. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil contango is expected to face pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the transition between peak and off - peak seasons. The market focuses on the medium - to - long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $60 per barrel. Due to the expected adjustment of European autumn maintenance, the forecast of the European diesel crack spread in the fourth quarter is raised [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From August 25 - 29, 2025, WTI crude oil decreased by $0.59, BRENT decreased by $1.14, and DUBAI increased by $0.01. Among other related indicators, SC increased by 3.50, OMAN decreased by 0.83, etc. [3] 2. Daily News - The CEO of a Russian oil company expects the global oil market surplus to be 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and drop to 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [3]. - Hedge funds have significantly reduced their bullish bets on crude oil to the lowest level since 2007 due to concerns about supply surplus. As of the week ending August 26, fund managers reduced their net long bets on WTI crude oil by 5,461 lots to 24,225 lots, the lowest since January 2007, and short - only bets on WTI crude oil reached a 20 - month high [3]. - The U.S. Federal offshore Gulf of Mexico crude oil production reached 1.92 million barrels per day in June 2025, the highest since October 2023 [4]. - Due to increased production from major oil - producing countries and U.S. tariff threats, it is difficult for oil prices to rise significantly this year. The predicted average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is $67.65 per barrel, and that of U.S. crude oil is $64.65 per barrel [4]. - Despite sanctions and U.S. tariffs, Russia's oil exports to India will increase by 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day in September [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending August 15, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day [5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%. U.S. crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries decreased slightly, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5][6].