1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to move in a volatile range, while treasury bonds are expected to rise steadily [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile, and coking coal and coke are expected to move in a volatile range [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is not recommended for short - chasing, nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies, tin is recommended for range trading, gold is recommended for building positions on dips after a full price correction, and silver is recommended for range trading [1][11][17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are all expected to move in a volatile range, while soda ash is recommended for observation [1][19][25]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be weakly volatile, apples are expected to move in a volatile range, and PTA is expected to be weakly volatile [1][27][28]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to be weakly volatile, eggs are expected to be weakly trending, corn is expected to be strongly volatile, soybean meal is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and oils are expected to be weakly volatile [1][29][35]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions. For example, in the black building materials industry, the supply and demand situation of iron ore and the impact of policies on steel production are considered; in the non - ferrous metals industry, factors like global economic conditions, supply and demand fundamentals, and trade policies are analyzed. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, geopolitical events, and domestic policies, the index futures are expected to move in a volatile range. If there is a downward trend to fill the gap, it may rebound after filling the gap; if the overall situation is stable and positive, it may be strongly volatile [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the "double - cut" policy has been implemented, the bond market investors are not fully satisfied. The short - end bonds are stronger, while the long - end bonds have a profit - taking market. The bond market is still in a situation with a relatively high winning rate but limited odds [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to move in a volatile range. The static valuation is low, but the policy and market expectations are weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is seasonally increasing, and the demand is also increasing, but there is an expectation of a peak and decline. Considering the high iron - water output and international trade frictions, the 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [7][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is expected to continue to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream iron - water production, changes in imported coal prices, and policy expectations. The coke market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the recovery of finished - product demand, the balance of coking - steel profits, and policy - related production - restriction disturbances [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the demand may be restricted by price increases and trade policies. The price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern after the holiday, and cautious trading within a range is recommended [11]. - **Aluminum**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, but the current decline is too fast, so short - chasing is not recommended [12]. - **Nickel**: The supply is in an oversupply situation, and it is expected to be weakly volatile under the influence of cost and demand factors [13][14]. - **Tin**: The supply of raw materials is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price is expected to be volatile, and range trading is recommended [15]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, economic data, and trade policies, the prices are expected to be in an adjustment state, and range trading is recommended [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The demand is weak, and the supply is excessive. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand increment is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to delivery volume, inventory, and export [20]. - **Rubber**: The demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium term, and attention should be paid to policies, tariffs, and weather [21][22]. - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is gradually released. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and range operation is recommended [22]. - **Methanol**: The supply is reduced, and the demand is stable. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and range operation is recommended [24]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand, policies, and tariffs [25]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is still high, and the downstream is not optimistic. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and short - term observation is recommended [25]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global supply and demand are loose, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [27]. - **Apples**: The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, but attention should be paid to macro - risks [27]. - **PTA**: The cost is collapsing, and the terminal export orders are poor. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the 4200 support level [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is increasing and postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and short - selling on rallies is recommended after taking profits [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The demand is falling after the holiday, and the supply is accumulating. The 06 contract is expected to be volatile at a low level, and the 08 and 09 contracts are considered bearish [31][32]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply is tight, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening. It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to substitutes [32]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is increasing, and the price is expected to decline. The long - term cost is increasing, and the price is expected to be strong. Short - selling on rallies in the short term and long - buying on dips in the long term are recommended [33][34]. - **Oils**: The short - term is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to support levels. Bean and rapeseed oils are expected to be stronger, and attention should be paid to the spread expansion of bean - palm and rapeseed - palm oil contracts [35][40].

黑色产业日报 周三，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3220 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 122（-11），7 日上午国新办举行新闻 发布会，央行等多部门介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有 关情况，货币政策利多落地，盘面高开低走，目前市场仍在期待财政政 策发力。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近， 仅仅高于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，预计 中美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较 小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求季节性下滑，市场预 期偏弱，关注限产政策是否落地，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花 顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 供给方面，全球发运季节性回升，近期国内进口矿到港有所增长，港口 铁矿库存仍呈现小幅上升态势。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，钢厂产 能利用率提升。月末钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极 性提高。市场存在粗钢限产预期，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，五千 万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面 铁矿属于供需均有走弱趋势，但即将进 ...

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 5 月 7 日 PVC 冲高回落。昨日开始受中美和谈等消息影响，市场一度宏 观偏暖迹象，工业品冲高。国内出台货币政策等，力度一般，但市场更 多交易对经济的担忧，夜盘美联储偏鹰。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下 持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大 （12%左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，二季度投产压力较大，且烧碱利 润高开工持续维持高位，库存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产 能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价 换量持稳状态，内需季节性恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面驱动有限， 宏观主导。目前海外局势动荡，全球经济增速放缓，国内政策预期不强， PVC 估值偏低，盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策 力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期，或有一定 支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化，盘面进一步承压。 ◆ 烧碱： 5 月 7 日烧碱主力 SH09 合约收 2513 元/吨（+15），山东市场主流价 800 元/吨（0），折百 2500 元/吨（0），液氯山东-100 元/吨（0）。4 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 7 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 0.15%至 77790 元/吨。美 国 4 月非农就业人口增长达到 17.7 万人，就业增长强劲，失业率亦保持 稳定，但制造业产出出现自 2020 年以来最严重的萎缩，中国 PMI 数据 也对关税影响有所体现。同时 4 月份发往美国的精炼铜货物超过 17 万 吨，或将超过 2001 年 11 月份大约 14.2 万吨所创历史最高，美铜承压， 带动假日海外市场一度大跌，但随后持续反弹。国内假日期间铜价整体 大幅波动，小幅下跌。基本面上，铜精矿现货市场延续低迷态势，TC 持 续探底跌破-40 美元，虽受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出依然保持韧 性，但炼厂压力在增大。在铜产出维持高位的背景下，市场去库并未受 到明显影响，纽约大幅垒库，但国内大幅去库，LME 库存亦在减少，铜 的供需基本面仍偏紧张。供应端矿端压力延续并有加大趋势，废铜进口 可能受限。但铜价进一步上行将对需求带来抑制，而特朗普政府贸易战 对全球经济带来的拖累仍将对铜整体需求带来不利影响，或将在需求端 逐步显现，因而铜价上行空间也受到限制。节后沪铜或仍维持震荡格局， 建 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 8 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.5-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.5-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15.4- 16 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用率已超过一 半，部分养殖户五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升，二次育肥进 场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消费转淡，且 猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍 存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出 情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升， 在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11- 2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而 上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注二育介入造 成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月 开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡区间上 限， ...

日度观点: ◆ PVC： 5 月 6 日 PVC 震荡偏弱。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续低迷，出口 受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大（12%左右）；供 应端有不少新投计划，二季度投产压力较大，且烧碱利润高开工持续维 持高位，库存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽 松格局，偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量持稳状态， 内需季节性恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。目 前海外局势动荡，全球经济增速放缓，国内政策预期不强，PVC 估值偏 低，盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本 面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期，或有一定支撑。若贸 易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化，盘面进一步承压。 能源化工日报 公司资质 ◆ 烧碱： 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 5 月 6 日烧碱主力 SH09 合约收 2498 元/吨（+19），山东市场主流价 800 元/吨（+20），折百 2500 元/吨（+62），液氯山东-100 元/吨（-200）。 4 月 13 日开始，山东地区某氧化铝厂家采购 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 7 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.5-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.5-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定； 广东 15.4-16 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用 率已超过一半，部分养殖户五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消 费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥 滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节 奏、二育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生 产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据， 2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体 重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注 二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动； 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限， 处 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Short - term bullish on Treasury bonds [3] - The stock index is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [1] Group 2: Core Views Stock Index - The EU plans to expand counter - measures; if negotiations fail, it will impose tariffs on $100 billion worth of US goods. Meetings between US and Canadian leaders have different stances. High - level China - US economic and trade talks and the 10th China - France High - level Economic and Financial Dialogue will be held. The spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce answered questions about the China - US economic and trade talks. Relevant departments will introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations". With multiple positive factors, the stock index may oscillate with a slight upward trend [1] Treasury Bonds - The impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market is not significant. The core factor restricting the decline of yields is the capital price. Although the overall capital situation is balanced, the central bank's actions in April and after the holiday show the restraint of the capital market. The "relatively high" capital interest rate is the biggest obstacle to the decline of current yields [2] Group 3: Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.13%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.67%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.99%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 2.39% [4] Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.11%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.06% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market will oscillate with a slight upward trend [5] Treasury Bonds - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract will oscillate with a slight upward trend [7] Group 5: Strategy Suggestions Stock Index - Oscillatory operation [2] Treasury Bonds - Short - term bullish [3] Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3766.20 | 1.13 | 47831 | 138953 | | 2025/05/06 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2629.60 | 0.67 | 25377 | 44285 | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5622.00 | 1.99 | 43200 | 97319 | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5953.20 | 2.39 | 107389 | 160100 | | 2025/05/06 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.04 | - 0.01 | 49555 | 189565 | | 2025/05/06 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.06 | - 0.04 | 46541 | 155595 | | 2025/05/06 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.97 | 0.11 | 61695 | 102169 | | 2025/05/06 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.31 | - 0.06 | 28361 | 93460 | [9]

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格高开低走，杭州中天螺纹钢 3210 元/吨，较前一 日下跌 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 133（+9），关注 7 日上午国新办的新 闻发布会，央行等多部门将介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" 有关情况。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附 近，仅仅高于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端， 预计中美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模刺激政策概率较 小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求季节性下滑，市场预 期偏弱，关注限产政策是否落地，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花 顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 供给方面，全球发运季节性回升，近期国内进口矿到港有所增长，港口 铁矿库存仍呈现小幅上升态势。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，钢厂产 能利用率提升。月末钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极 性提高。市场存在粗钢限产预期，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，五千 万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面 铁矿属于供需均有走弱趋势，但即将进入传统淡季，高位铁水再向上空 间不大，存在见 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 6 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约下跌 0.06%至 77600 元/吨。美 国 4 月非农就业人口增长达到 17.7 万人，就业增长强劲，失业率亦保持 稳定，但制造业产出出现自 2020 年以来最严重的萎缩，中国 PMI 数据 也对关税影响有所体现。同时 4 月份发往美国的精炼铜货物超过 17 万 吨，或将超过 2001 年 11 月份大约 14.2 万吨所创历史最高，美铜承压， 带动假日海外市场一度大跌，但随后持续反弹。国内假日期间铜价整体 大幅波动，小幅下跌。基本面上，铜精矿现货市场延续低迷态势，TC 持 续探底跌破-40 美元，虽受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出依然保持韧 性，但炼厂压力在增大。在铜产出维持高位的背景下，市场去库并未受 到明显影响，纽约大幅垒库，但国内大幅去库，LME 库存亦在减少，铜 的供需基本面仍偏紧张。供应端矿端压力延续并有加大趋势，废铜进口 可能受限。但铜价进一步上行将对需求带来抑制，而特朗普政府贸易战 对全球经济带来的拖累仍将对铜整体需求带来不利影响，或将在需求端 逐步显现，因而铜价上行空间也受到限制。节后沪铜或仍维持震荡格局， 建 ...