Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, while treasury bonds are expected to rise slightly [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore is expected to weaken, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for range trading, aluminum for observation, nickel for observation or short - selling on rallies, tin for range operation, gold for buying on dips after full price correction, and silver for range operation [1][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are expected to fluctuate; a short position in call options for soda ash is recommended [1][22]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen, and PTA is expected to weaken [1][31]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range, eggs are expected to weaken, corn is recommended for buying on dips, soybean meal is expected to be weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][34]. Core Viewpoints - The global economic situation is complex, with trade frictions, policy uncertainties, and supply - demand imbalances affecting various futures markets. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals and macro - environment [5][8][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as tariff games, shrinking stock trading volume, and weakening export - chain production and sales, the market lacks continuous upward momentum. Although the short - term fundamentals are okay, policies may be advanced. Index futures may fluctuate. Attention can be paid to whether there will be large - scale statements to stimulate the market after visits to ASEAN countries [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a situation where long - term benefits and short - term full pricing without further benefits coexist. There is selling pressure in the short - term, and the pattern is difficult to predict. Attention can be paid to relative value opportunities [7]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The futures price fluctuates. Although the steel demand data is good and the inventory reduction speed is accelerating, the impact of tariffs on exports is relatively large. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to increase while the demand is expected to decline. Considering factors such as high hot metal production and possible macro - policy benefits, it may rebound slightly or fluctuate in the near - term. It is recommended to short on rebounds [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, production is restricted by safety inspections, and demand is weak. For coke, production is stable, and demand is supported by high hot metal production but is affected by export expectations. Both are expected to fluctuate [10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the tariff war, the price has rebounded after a sharp decline. The short - term fundamentals are still resilient, but the long - term demand may be affected. It is recommended for range trading [12]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is improving, the production capacity of alumina is decreasing, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The demand is weakening, and the price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. - **Nickel**: Affected by the US tariff policy and the cost of nickel ore, the price has fallen. The supply of refined nickel and nickel iron is in excess, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, but the resumption of production in Congo is expected. The downstream semiconductor industry is recovering. It is recommended for range operation [19]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US tariff policy, market uncertainties increase, and the price fluctuates. It is recommended to wait for the price to fully correct before building positions [19][21]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The long - term demand is weak, the supply is excessive, and the inventory is high. Recently, the inventory has decreased, and the price may have a weak rebound. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, the demand increment is limited, and the price increase is not sustainable. Attention should be paid to delivery volume, inventory, and alumina production [23]. - **Rubber**: The demand is weak, the supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on demand and the situation after the start of tapping [25]. - **Urea**: The supply is stable, the demand for compound fertilizers is high, and the summer fertilizer demand may support the price. It is recommended for range operation [27]. - **Methanol**: The domestic production is at a high level, the import is expected to recover, the demand is weak, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [27]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, oil prices, and tariff games [28]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, the demand is improving, but the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [30]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: Affected by Trump's tariff policy, the supply and demand of global cotton are expected to increase slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. - **Apples**: The inventory is low, the sales are good, and the price is expected to strengthen, but macro - risks should be noted [32]. - **PTA**: The cost has collapsed due to factors such as the US tariff policy, and the price is under pressure. Although the supply and demand are good, the price is not optimistic [33]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is increasing and postponed, the price rebound is under pressure, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [35][36]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the price is supported by replenishment demand, but the supply is sufficient. In the long - term, the supply will increase. It is recommended to short on rebounds [37]. - **Corn**: The short - term price is supported, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening, but the price increase space is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [38][39]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, the supply is tight in some areas, but it will be abundant from May to July. In the long - term, the price is expected to rise. It is recommended for range operation in the near - term and long - position building in the long - term [39][40]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short - term, the price may rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long - term, the price may decline in the second quarter and strengthen in the third quarter. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up and stop the spread - widening strategy for rapeseed - palm oil [45].

国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手），未点价，想 接货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双 方会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。对等关税政策调整，除了中国，美国宣布 对大部分国家暂停 90 天关税，并且在此期间大幅降低"对等关税"至 10%，目前中美博弈进入激烈阶段，面对出口严峻的形势，认为 4 月开 始进入压力冲击阶段，二季度不乐观。到了下半年，我们要面对几个变 数，一是新疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉 花，其他种植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新 年度棉花丰产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term steel market fluctuates around tariff policies. Although the current steel demand data is good and the inventory reduction speed is accelerating, the direct and indirect exports of steel will be affected by tariff policies. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - The iron ore market is affected by the escalation of tariff friction, with the contradiction between high iron - water production and low finished - product demand continuing to accumulate. It is expected to rebound slightly or remain volatile in the near term, and the 09 contract should be considered from the perspective of shorting on rebounds [1]. - The coking coal price may maintain a weak and stable trend, and attention should be paid to the profit repair rhythm of downstream steel enterprises, the recovery strength of terminal demand, and changes in import coal customs clearance policies [3]. - The coke market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in iron - water production and the impact of the realization of terminal steel demand on the price rebound height [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Steel - **Price and Basis**: On Thursday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 05 contract was 138 (+11) [1]. - **Demand and Export**: The current steel apparent demand data is good, and the inventory reduction speed is accelerating. In 2024, China's steel exports to the US were 890,000 tons, accounting for only 0.8% of the total export volume. However, the indirect exports were about 140 million tons last year, with over 10 million tons exported to the US, and some re - exports were also affected [1]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price and Basis**: On Thursday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated narrowly. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 762 yuan/wet ton (-2). The Platts 62% index was 99.9 US dollars/ton (+0.95), and the monthly average was 99.84 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 100 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.349 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 417,000 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 234.1815 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2198 million tons. The daily output of molten iron of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4012 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons. With the peak of building material demand and the slowdown of plate demand growth due to tariffs, iron ore is expected to enter a stage of increasing supply and falling demand [1]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to rebound slightly or remain volatile in the near term, and the 09 contract should be considered from the perspective of shorting on rebounds [1]. 3.3 Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main domestic production areas are restricted by safety inspections, and the overall capacity release rhythm is slow. The Mongolian port clearance volume fluctuates and declines, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious [3]. - **Demand**: The coke enterprise start - up rate has rebounded, but it mainly consumes the previous inventory. Steel mills maintain a rigid procurement rhythm, and the market trading atmosphere is cold [3]. - **Policy**: Macroeconomic policies continue to suppress the black - series industry chain, and the long - term export demand is expected to weaken [3]. 3.4 Coke - **Supply**: After the first price increase, the loss pressure of coke enterprises has been alleviated, and the production rhythm has become stable [4]. - **Demand**: The high molten - iron production of steel mills supports rigid demand, but some steel mills start to control the arrival rhythm due to the uncertainty of terminal demand [4]. - **Policy**: The long - term export expectation is weakened by the intensification of foreign trade frictions, which suppresses market confidence [4]. 3.5 Industry News - **Production Data**: In March, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.298 million, a year - on - year increase of 40.6%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 3.159 million, a year - on - year increase of 45.4%. The production of air conditioners in March was 33.712 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 74.458 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. The production of washing machines in March was 11.002 million, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 29.564 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% [6]. - **Housing Policy**: Qingdao plans to acquire more than 1,200 second - hand personal housing units for affordable rental housing and long - term rental housing [6]. - **Business Policy**: Shanghai encourages private enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions for industrial upgrading and supports private listed companies in market - value management [6]. - **Corporate Investment**: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. plans to invest 9 billion yuan to acquire a 35.42% stake in Magang Co., Ltd. and increase capital, with the shareholding ratio reaching 49% after the transaction [6]. - **Trade Negotiation**: China's Ministry of Commerce maintains communication with the US and is open to trade consultations [6].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 4 月 18 日辽宁现货 14.5-15.1 元/公斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.6- 15.4 元/公斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.5-14.9 元/公斤，较上日稳 定；广东 15.1-15.6 元/公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价北涨南稳。4 月生 猪供应增加，且生猪体重偏高，目前肥标价差收缩，前期压栏以及二育养殖 户出栏意愿增强，而终端消费增量有限，屠企大多亏损，猪价上方承压。但 行业有利润，规模企业多控重出栏，且肥标价差仍为正，养殖端惜售、二次 育肥逢低进场仍存以及中央冻猪肉储备带动屠企分割入库需求，均支撑价 格，短期猪价震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育和屠宰冻品入库情况。中 长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平 稳情况下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费 淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价下跌风险加剧，关注二育介入造成供应后 移、冻品入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；12-1 月产能小幅下滑 ...

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 4 月 17 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4933 元/吨（-21），常州市场价 4820 元/吨（0），主力基差-113 元/吨（+21），广州市场价 4930 元/吨（-10）， 杭州市场价 4880 元/吨（0）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2450 （-50）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持 续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量持稳状态，内需季节性 恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。经过上周贸易 战激烈期后，当前宏观悲观情绪有所缓解，PVC 估值偏低，盘面存弱反 弹。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口和检 修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期，或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经 济预期继续恶化，盘面进一步承压。 ◆ 烧碱： 4 月 17 日烧碱主力 SH05 合约收 248 ...

2025 年 4 月 17 日 移仓换月 周度策略 长江期货研究咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 F03102085 Z0021210 zhangzh15@cjsc.com.cn 摘要 IF 跨月基差最优范围 IF 期现基差最优范围 一． 近期宏观分析： 研究员 张志恒 鲍威尔重申美联储先观望再行动，警告面临通胀和经济两难挑战， 否认要救市。一季度数据整体超预期，GDP 实际同比稳定在 5.4%，3 月供需两侧量的同比增长多数走强，反映经济韧性增强。在 4 月低基 数环境下，各项经济指标预计同比回落压力不大。经济的韧性主要缘 于 924 以来一揽子政策引发的量变，包括：耐用品销量走强；设备工 器具购置同比高增长；中下游带动上游生产提速。量变积极，但还未 看到质变：产能利用率偏低；价格持续偏弱；居民消费倾向转弱。 关税博弈仍多，股市成交缩量，市场向上动能不足，尽管短期经济 增长的同比表现很难成为政策发力的依据，但出口链产销环比转弱的 压力仍可作为政策靠前发力的充分条件，股指或震荡运行。可关注拜 访东盟多国后，是否会出激发市场情绪的大型声明与表态。 二． 最优换仓时间窗口如下表： | 观 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 鲍威尔重申美联储先观望再行动，警告面临通胀和经济两难挑战，否认要救 市。关税博弈仍多，中国与越南、马来西亚、柬埔寨的谈判或较顺利，中国 一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.4%，一季度经济数据较好，政策紧迫度较低。股市 成交缩量，市场向上动能不足，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 近期债券投资者的关注焦点从关税摩擦重新回到资金面以及基本面。周三公 布的较好的经济数据在一定程度上降低了短期出台大规模刺激的必要性和迫 切性，因此市场对数据反应平平，收益率甚至在数据公布后略有下行。整体 上债券市场短期面临的不利因素比较有限，在后续宽松预期的加持下仍处于 顺风期。但下行行情或许并非一蹴而就，在日复一日的市场波动中保持一颗 平常心，以配置的视角来发现债券价值、做债市的耐心资本更为可取。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 研究咨询部 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 研究员： 张志恒 从业编号：F03102085 投资咨询编号：Z002121 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are expected to move sideways, while treasury bonds are expected to rise sideways in the short term [1][5] - Black building materials: Rebar - temporarily wait and see; Iron ore - move weakly sideways; Coking coal and coke - move sideways [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper - trade within a range; Aluminum - wait and see; Nickel - wait and see or short on rallies; Tin - operate within a range; Gold - build positions on dips after sufficient price corrections; Silver - operate within a range [1][11][13] - Energy and chemicals: PVC - move sideways; Soda ash - hold short positions in call options; Caustic soda - move sideways; Rubber - move sideways; Urea - operate within a range; Methanol - operate within a range; Plastic - move sideways [1][19][25] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate violently; Apples - move strongly sideways; PTA - move weakly sideways [1][30][31] - Agricultural and livestock products: Hogs - move weakly sideways; Eggs - near - term contracts may see increased fluctuations, and short on rallies for far - term contracts; Corn - buy on dips; Soybean meal - weak in the near term and strong in the long term; Oils and fats - move strongly sideways [1][34][37] Core Views - The overall market is affected by factors such as tariff policies, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Tariff policies have a significant impact on various industries, causing market volatility and uncertainty. Economic data affects market expectations for policies, and supply - demand relationships determine the price trends of specific products [5][7][11] Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Index futures are expected to move sideways due to factors such as Powell's stance, tariff games, and lack of upward momentum in the stock market [5] - Treasury bonds are expected to rise sideways in the short term as the focus returns to the capital and fundamental aspects, and the bond market is in a favorable period with limited short - term negative factors [5] Black Building Materials - Rebar: The short - term market fluctuates around tariff policies. Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel exports is small, the indirect impact is relatively large. It is advisable to wait and see for now [7] - Iron ore: The price is expected to move weakly sideways. The supply is expected to increase while the demand may decline, but considering factors such as high hot metal production and potential macro - policy benefits, it may rebound slightly or maintain a sideways trend in the near term [7] - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal market is in a supply - demand game situation, and the coke market may continue to fluctuate under the support of rigid demand, but risks such as a decline in hot metal production need to be watched out for [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: After a sharp decline, it rebounds and is expected to move within a range. The long - term demand logic remains, but the medium - and long - term impact of tariffs may lower the market demand and the price center [11] - Aluminum: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply of the ore end is improving, the operating capacity of alumina is decreasing, and the demand of the downstream processing industry is weakening. The short - term macro uncertainty is high [13] - Nickel: It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The macro environment is not favorable, but the cost support at the ore end exists. The refined nickel and nickel iron are in an oversupply situation, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [14][15] - Tin: It is recommended to operate within a range. The supply of tin ore is tight, but Congo's tin mine is expected to resume production, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support the demand [16] - Gold and silver: It is recommended to build positions on dips after sufficient price corrections. The macro uncertainty is high, and factors such as central bank gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: It is expected to move sideways. The long - term demand is weak, the supply pressure is large, but the short - term macro pessimism has eased, and the valuation is low, with the possibility of a weak rebound [19] - Caustic soda: It is expected to move sideways. The current situation is a low - level sideways movement, with limited upside and downside space. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory changes and alumina production [21] - Rubber: It is expected to move sideways. The market is dominated by weak demand and supply increase pressure. The raw material at the domestic opening - cut stage has certain support, and the inventory shows a small - scale destocking trend [22] - Urea: It is recommended to operate within a range. The supply is stable, the demand for compound fertilizers is still at a high level, and the summer fertilizer demand is expected to support the price in the short term [25] - Methanol: It is recommended to operate within a range. The domestic production rate is high, the demand in some regions may decline slightly, and the price is supported by low inventory and suppressed by demand reduction [26] - Plastic: It is expected to move sideways at a low level. The supply pressure is large, the downstream demand is weak, but tariffs may provide some support to the market price [27] - Soda ash: It is recommended to hold short positions in call options. The supply is increasing, and although the demand has improved, the price is still under pressure [29] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy [30] - Apples: The price is expected to move strongly sideways as the inventory is low and the sales are good, but macro risks need to be watched out for [31] - PTA: It is expected to move weakly sideways. Although the supply - demand relationship is good and inventory is decreasing, the price is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in raw material costs and poor export orders [31][32] Agricultural and Livestock Products - Hogs: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the short term, it is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and in the long term, the supply pressure is large, especially in the second quarter [34] - Eggs: Near - term contracts may see increased fluctuations, and it is recommended to short on rallies for far - term contracts. The short - term price is supported by replenishment demand, but the long - term supply is expected to increase [35] - Corn: It is recommended to buy on dips. The short - term spot price is supported, and the long - term supply - demand relationship is tightening, but the upward space may be limited by substitutes [37] - Soybean meal: It is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The short - term supply is expected to increase, but the long - term price is expected to rise due to factors such as the impact of tariffs on imports and potential supply reduction [37][38] - Oils and fats: It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up in the short term. The short - term market may rebound due to positive factors, but the long - term supply increase may lead to a price decline, followed by a possible strong sideways movement in the third quarter [43]

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 研究员： 曹雪梅 咨询电话：027-65777102 从业编号：F3051631 投资咨询编号：Z0015756 4 月 16 日 PVC 主力 05 合约收盘 4921 元/吨（-10），常州市场价 4820 元/吨（0），主力基差-101 元/吨（+10），广州市场价 4940 元/吨（0）， 杭州市场价 4880 元/吨（0）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2500 （-50）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持 续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量持稳状态，内需季节性 恢复，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。经过上周贸易战激烈期后，当前宏 观悲观情绪有所缓解，PVC 估值偏低，盘面存弱反弹。重点关注关税谈 判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口和 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content available. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton prices are under pressure to decline due to factors such as domestic over - capacity in the industrial chain, limited consumption growth, tariff policy adjustments, potential increases in cotton production in Xinjiang and Brazil, and the impact of Sino - US trade frictions [1]. - PTA prices are under pressure to decline mainly because of poor terminal weaving orders, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [3]. - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate and decline due to low international crude oil prices, the impact of tariff policies on imports, and weak market sentiment [4]. - Short - fiber prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak raw material prices and declining terminal textile demand [5]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, affected by factors such as short - term tight trade flow in the international sugar market, Brazilian production and weather conditions, and domestic import data and sales progress [7]. - Apple prices are expected to oscillate strongly as apple出库 is good and inventory is low, but macro risks need to be monitored [7]. Summary by Variety Cotton - Domestic cotton supply and demand are basically sufficient but may be slightly tight. About 60% of the sales pressure of Xinjiang ginning factories has been released, and 40% remains unpriced. Resources are concentrated in a few major traders [1]. - The external market is relatively weak, with the CFTC fund holding a net short position and the industry holding a net long position [1]. - In the second quarter, the situation is not optimistic. In the second half of the year, cotton production in Xinjiang may increase by 10%, and the new - year cotton output may reach 720 - 750 million tons. Brazilian cotton production is also increasing, which is bearish for cotton prices [1]. - On April 16, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,252 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the cotton yarn index was 20,520 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [11]. PTA - As of April 16, the PTA spot price dropped to 4,270 yuan/ton. The terminal weaving situation is weak, and the downstream polyester demand is weak. The spot basis has strengthened slightly, and the market transaction is mediocre [10]. - The PTA capacity utilization rate remained at 76.41%, and the polyester industry capacity utilization rate was 91.31%, down 0.12% from the previous day. The PTA de - stocking continued [3]. - The decline is mainly due to poor terminal weaving orders. As of the beginning of this week, the comprehensive starting rate of domestic major weaving production bases was 56.57%, down 2.34% from last week [3]. Ethylene Glycol - International crude oil prices are low, and cost support is poor. The tariff policy affects imports, and the number of arrivals is expected to decrease. Although short - term polyester start - up is okay, market sentiment is weak, and prices are expected to decline [4]. - China's ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate was 66.01%, up 0.31% month - on - month. The weekly output was 39.69 million tons, up 0.48% from last week [16]. Short - fiber - Raw material prices are weak, and terminal textile demand is expected to decline. The short - fiber market is difficult to have positive changes in the short term [5]. - As of the 10th, the domestic short - fiber weekly output was 15.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.26 million tons month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate average was 82.84%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month [14]. Sugar - In the international sugar market, short - term trade flow is tight, but with the start of the Brazilian sugar - making season and the increase in the sugar - making ratio, the ICE sugar price is expected to be weak in the short term [7]. - Domestically, imports have decreased year - on - year, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate and adjust. In the later stage, as consumption increases, the price may be boosted [7]. - In April , Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first two weeks were 632,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.37%. From January to March 2025, Ukraine's sugar imports were 230 tons, 37% of the same period in 2024, and exports were 152,620 tons, 72% of the same period in 2024 [15]. Apple - The overall apple inventory is low, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. However, macro risks need to be monitored [7]. - As of April 9, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 3.9863 million tons, a decrease of 389,000 tons from last week, and the de - stocking was accelerating year - on - year [17]. Macroeconomic Information - In the first quarter, the GDP was 31.8758 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.2% [11]. - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.094 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to March, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 12.4671 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [11]. - The US has increased tariffs on China, and China has stated its position on the tariff issue [11].