1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal market has shifted to a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to macro - events. For rebar, it is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading; for iron ore, it is expected to move in a volatile manner; for coking coal and coke, a neutral stance of waiting and observing is advised [5][36][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar - **Investment Strategy**: The rebar market is expected to shift to a volatile pattern. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading. The static valuation has returned to a neutral level. Attention should be paid to the outcomes of Sino - US economic and trade talks, signals from the Politburo meeting, the implementation of crude steel production restrictions, and the situation of coking coal futures position limits [5][6] - **Market Review**: The price of coking coal increased due to production over - inspection, driving up the price of steel. The spot price of rebar in Hangzhou rose by 200 yuan/ton to 3490 yuan/ton week - on - week, the futures price of the rebar 10 contract rose by 209 yuan/ton to 3356 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly narrowed to 134 yuan [9][14] - **Steel Mill Profits**: The profits of long - process steel mills expanded, with an estimated profit of about 378 yuan/ton in East China. The profits of short - process steel mills improved, with a profit of about 105 yuan/ton for flat - rate electricity. The profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills was 63.64% (+3.47) [20] - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Rebar production increased by 2.90 tons to 211.96 tons, apparent demand increased by 10.41 tons to 216.58 tons, and inventory decreased by 4.62 tons to 538.64 tons [27] - **Valuation**: As of last Friday's close, the rebar futures price rose to near the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces, and the static valuation has returned to a neutral level [29] - **Key Data/Policy/News**: Major events include the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, the upcoming release of a stable growth plan for ten key industries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, a coal mine production inspection notice, and Sino - US economic and trade talks [31] Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Strategy**: A neutral stance of waiting and observing is recommended. For coking coal, the short - term supply - demand pattern is tight, and price support is strong. For coke, there is still an expectation of price increases [36][37] - **Market Review**: Coking coal prices increased, with domestic and foreign coal prices rising. Coke prices continued to rise, with both spot and futures prices increasing [39][55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For coking coal, supply is affected by factors such as production adjustments in major producing areas, and demand is strong. For coke, supply is temporarily shrinking, and demand is strong, with low inventory levels [36] - **Inventory Situation**: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased, with upstream de - stocking being obvious. The overall inventory of coke slightly decreased [53][70] Iron Ore - **Investment Strategy**: The iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner at a high level and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black metal varieties [74] - **Market Review**: The iron ore futures price adjusted downward from a high level last week. The spot prices of various grades of iron ore increased, and the futures price of the 09 contract rose by 17.5 yuan/ton to 802.5 yuan/ton [74][75] - **Supply Analysis**: Domestic production has recovered, with an increase in the daily output of iron concentrate powder. Global shipments have slightly increased, with an increase in Brazilian shipments. Port arrivals and port clearance volumes have both declined, and port inventories have increased [89][90][101] - **Demand Analysis**: The daily output of hot metal is basically flat, steel mills have good profits, and the replenishment rhythm for iron ore is maintained [74] - **Inventory Situation**: Port inventories of iron ore have increased, and the total inventory of ports and steel mills has also increased [106]

长江期货饲料养殖产业周报 2025-7-28 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：韦 蕾 执业编号: F0244258 投资咨询号:Z0011781 研 究 员：刘汉缘 执业编号: F03101804 投资咨询号:Z0021169 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 目 录 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：弱现实强预期，维持近弱远强 u 期现端：截至7月25日，全国现货价格14.81元/公斤，较上周持平；河南猪价14.18元/公斤，较上周价格下跌0.19元/公斤；生猪2509报价14385元/吨，较上周上涨250 元/吨；09合约基差-205元/吨，较上周下跌440元/吨。周度生猪价格先涨后跌，小幅调整，周初价格低位养殖端抗价惜售，二育逢低介入，带动价格触底反弹，周中后 期集团增量、散户出栏积极性增强，而终端消费疲软，供强需弱压制价格走低；盘面因周三要召开生猪行业高质量会议，供给侧改革预期炒作，资金看涨情绪高涨，周初 价格大幅拉涨，随着会议内容明确，涉及疫情防控、产能调控、低蛋白日粮、育种、规范屠宰等，围绕行业高质量发展，产能调控措施与前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views Plastic - The plastic market maintains a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and a short - term correction is expected. The 2509 contract is expected to adjust in the range of 7200 - 7500, and it is recommended to short at high prices [3]. PP - The PP market has significant upward pressure in the medium - short term, and a short - term adjustment is expected. The 2509 contract is expected to adjust in the range of 6900 - 7200, and it is recommended to short at high prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On July 25, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7216 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week. LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE prices all decreased. The LLDPE South China basis shrank, and the 6 - 9 month spread widened [3][6]. Fundamental Changes - Cost: WTI crude oil was at 65.07 dollars/barrel, down 0.96 dollars/barrel from last week; Brent crude oil was at 76.60 dollars/barrel, down 1.63 dollars/barrel. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3][18]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PE was - 473 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based PE was 1142 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan/ton [3][23]. - Supply: The production start - up rate of Chinese polyethylene was 78.97%, up 0.76 percentage points from last week, and the weekly output was 61.51 tons, up 0.99%. The maintenance loss this week was 11.35 tons, up 0.76 tons [3][26]. - Demand: The overall start - up rate of agricultural films was 12.63%, up 0.28%; the start - up rate of PE packaging films was 48.07%, up 0.11%; the start - up rate of PE pipes was 28.83%, unchanged [3][31]. - Inventory: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 55.84 tons, up 2.18 tons from last week, a 4.06% increase [3][37]. Main Operating Logic - Macro factors and coal price speculation have boosted the PE price, but the expected new production capacity in the third quarter exerts pressure on the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the support from the demand side is weak. It is expected that the 2509 contract will correct in the short term [3]. PP Market Changes - On July 25, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 7221 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of PP shrank, and the 5 - 9 month spread widened [4][45]. Fundamental Changes - Cost: Similar to the plastic market, WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreased, and the anthracite price at the Yangtze River port increased [4][58]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PP was - 374.61 yuan/ton, down 39.77 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based PP was 732.33 yuan/ton, down 95.33 yuan/ton [4][62]. - Supply: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.96%, down 0.33 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets was 77.36 tons, down 0.89%, and the weekly output of PP powder was 7.03 tons, up 4.02% [4][65]. - Demand: The average start - up rate of downstream industries was 48.37%, down 0.15%. The start - up rate of plastic weaving decreased, BOPP increased slightly, injection molding remained unchanged, and pipes decreased [4][71]. - Inventory: The domestic inventory of polypropylene was 58.06 tons, a 1.54% decrease; the inventory of the two major oil companies increased by 2.15%, the inventory of traders increased by 9.33%, and the port inventory increased by 6.50% [4][77]. Main Operating Logic - Macro sentiment has boosted the PP price, but the impact on supply is limited. The demand remains weak, and the market pressure is still large in the short term [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, short - term soybean prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost line due to good weather in the US and sufficient supply in South America. In the North American season, low carry - over stocks and high planting costs will support the price. For soybean meal, high livestock and poultry inventories support demand, and the price is expected to be strong during the de - stocking period [6][93]. - For oils, although there are short - term factors leading to a decline in market sentiment, the fundamentals still support the price. It is expected that the price will experience a limited decline in the short term and then have an upward momentum [93]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Price and Market Performance - As of July 18, the spot price in East China was 2,840 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2509 contract closed at 3,031 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton week - on - week [6][8]. 1.2 Supply - Brazil's 2024/25 production reached 169 million tons, and China's imports in August are expected to exceed 10 million tons. The domestic oil mill operating rate has risen above 60%, and soybean meal inventories are accumulating. In the long - term, the carry - over stocks of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season are slightly increased, but the supply - demand structure is tightening [6]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the breeding profit in China has improved, and the high inventories of pigs and poultry support the demand for feed. The proportion of soybean meal in the feed formula has increased year - on - year, and the demand for soybean meal in the second half of the year is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year [6]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1,141 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 990 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of soybean meal is around 2,750 - 2,820 yuan/ton [6]. 1.5 Strategy - For the M2509 contract, be cautious about long positions in the short term and pay attention to the support at around 2,980 yuan/ton. For the M2511 and M2601 contracts, go long at low prices in the long term [6]. 2. Oils 2.1 Price and Market Performance - As of the week of July 25, the palm oil 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 8,936 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 09 contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 8,144 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 129 yuan/ton to 9,457 yuan/ton [93][95]. 2.2 Palm Oil - Shipping data shows that the export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 25 decreased by 9.23 - 15.22% compared with the previous month, while the production increased by 6.19 - 11.24% from July 1 - 20. The inventory in Indonesia is in a tight balance, and the price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise after a short - term decline [93]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - The high - temperature in the US soybean - producing areas will ease in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which is beneficial to the growth of soybeans. The EPA's RVO2 draft boosts the demand for biodiesel, and the short - term decline of US soybeans is limited. The domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to increase in the short term, but the supply will tighten in the fourth quarter [93]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The rainfall in Canada has improved the growth of rapeseed, and the price of Canadian rapeseed futures will continue to fluctuate in the short term. The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. The possibility of China restarting the import of Australian rapeseed needs attention [93]. 2.5 Strategy - In the short term, the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils will fluctuate in the ranges of 8,000 - 8,200, 8,800 - 9,200, and 9,300 - 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. Adopt the strategy of going long on dips [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is expected to be weakly operating [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures rose significantly, forming a resonance with raw materials such as coal and soda ash. Driven by strong macro - sentiment and policy documents, the market was overbought. The supply decreased slightly with a cold - repair of one production line and a decline in daily melting volume. Both main production and sales areas saw inventory drops. The market demand improved, but the downstream terminal's willingness to stockpile remained low. The soda ash market also had more supply than actual demand, with limited upside potential. As the end - of - month meeting expectations are to be realized, the 08 - contract positions are higher than usual, and spot goods in the hands of spot - futures traders need to be sold. It is expected that the market will correct from its high level, and participation is not recommended without physical goods [2] Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Main Logic: The glass futures rose last week, with supply decreasing slightly and inventory dropping in major areas. Market demand improved, but downstream terminal stocking willingness was low. Soda ash supply exceeded demand. End - of - month meeting expectations are to be realized, and it's expected that the market will correct from its high [2] - Operating Strategy: Weakly operating [2][3] 02 and 03 Market Review - Spot Price: As of July 25, the 5mm float glass market price was 1,250 yuan/ton in North China (+90), 1,190 yuan/ton in Central China (+90), and 1,280 yuan/ton in East China (+40). The futures price of the glass 09 contract closed at 1,362 yuan/ton last Friday, up 281 yuan from the previous week [9][10] - Soda Ash - Glass Spread: As of July 25, the soda ash futures price was 1,440 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,362 yuan/ton, with a spread of 78 yuan/ton (-57) [11] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 09 contract was - 162 yuan/ton (-171), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 64 yuan/ton (+20) [14] 04 Profit - Natural Gas Process: The cost was 1,594 yuan/ton (+22), and the gross profit was - 314 yuan/ton (+18) [15] - Coal - Gas Process: The cost was 1,154 yuan/ton (+30), and the gross profit was 96 yuan/ton (+60) [19] - Petroleum Coke Process: The cost was 1,108 yuan/ton (+2), and the gross profit was 82 yuan/ton (+68) [19] 05 Supply - Last Friday, the glass daily melting volume was 157,755 tons/day (-1,100), with 223 production lines in operation. The first - line of Gansu Kaisheng Daming with a daily melting volume of 600T/D was cold - repaired last week [21] 06 Inventory - As of July 25, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,189.6 million weight boxes (-304.3). North China's inventory was 815.3 million weight boxes (-50.4); Central China's was 663 million weight boxes (-75.7); East China's was 1,370.3 million weight boxes (-36.2); South China's was 1,025.6 million weight boxes (-19.4); Southwest's was 1,171.4 million weight boxes (-47.3); and Shahe's factory inventory was 115 million weight boxes (-61) [27][34] 07 Deep - processing - On July 24, the comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 126% (+35%). On July 15, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.8% (-0.5%). In mid - July, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.3 days (-0.2) [36] 08 and 09 Demand - Automotive: In June, China's automobile production was 2.794 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 145,000 and a year - on - year increase of 287,000. Sales were 2.904 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 218,000 and a year - on - year increase of 352,000. New energy passenger vehicle retail sales in June were 1.111 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 53.3% [48] - Real Estate: In June, China's real estate completion area was 41.8147 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2%; new construction area was 71.8071 million square meters (-9%); construction area was 83.0189 million square meters (+5%); and commercial housing sales area was 105.354 million square meters (-7%). From July 14 to July 20, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.37 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. In June, real estate development investment was 1.042416 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% [57] 10, 11, 12, 13 Cost - side - Soda Ash - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were 1,350 yuan/ton in North China (+50), 1,350 yuan/ton in East China (+75), 1,325 yuan/ton in Central China (+75), and 1,500 yuan/ton in South China (+75) [59] - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,440 yuan/ton (+224) [64] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 09 contract was - 115 yuan/ton (-149) [63] - Profit: As of last Friday, the ammonia - alkali method cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,330 yuan/ton (+9), with a gross profit of - 35 yuan/ton (+48); the co - production method cost was 1,702 yuan/ton (+86), with a gross profit of 18 yuan/ton (+81) [65][67] - Inventory: As of July 25, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.8846 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 41,000), including 1.1224 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 200) and 742,200 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 40,800). The exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts last weekend were 955 (a month - on - month increase of 665). The apparent demand of light soda ash was 355,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,900. The apparent demand of heavy soda ash last week was 409,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 105.66%, a week - on - week increase of 11.42%. In May, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 25.8 days [77][88][94]

Trade Recommendations for Different Futures Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Defensive waiting and observing. The slow - bull trend remains but may correct recently due to factors like market sentiment cooling and high - level technical indicators [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Take profit, with a trend of weakening in oscillation. The bond market may adjust in oscillation, and the approach depends on investors' positions, durations, and tolerances [6][7]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Temporarily wait and observe or engage in short - term trading. The market may oscillate as the cost has adjusted, and supply - demand is balanced, with upcoming macro and industrial policies to be monitored [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. Consider it as the long - leg when shorting other black varieties. Although there are issues of potential supply surplus, support from other factors keeps it oscillating at a high level [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillate. The coking coal market has a tight short - term supply - demand pattern, and coke may see price increases, but key factors like production recovery and cost trends need attention [10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Trade within a range or wait and observe. The price may oscillate due to factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand changes, and economic recovery expectations [12]. - **Aluminum**: Mainly wait and observe. There are risks in the short - term, with factors like changes in ore prices, production capacity, and demand affecting the market, and attention should be paid to relevant meetings [14]. - **Nickel**: Consider shorting at high levels. The overall supply in the nickel industry is in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate [19]. - **Tin**: Trade within a range. Supply improvement is limited, and with low overseas inventory, the price is expected to be supported [21]. - **Gold and Silver**: Trade within a range cautiously. Market sentiment and tariff policies affect their prices, and they are expected to have support at the bottom [21][22]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Oscillate, with attention to the 5150 support level. Supply is high, and export sustainability is in question, but policy expectations have an impact [24]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillate, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on 2500 - 2700. Supply is abundant, and demand has rigid support but a slow - down in growth [26]. - **Styrene**: Oscillate, temporarily focusing on 7300 - 7700. Fundamental positives are limited, and the market is affected by macro factors [28]. - **Rubber**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias, temporarily paying attention to the 15000 pressure level. There is a short - term callback risk, but raw material and inventory factors support it [30]. - **Urea**: First weaken then strengthen, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1820 - 1850. Supply decreases slightly, and demand is expected to increase, with a neutral supply - demand pattern [31]. - **Methanol**: Oscillate. Supply in some areas is tight, and demand is mixed, with a stable supply - demand situation [32]. - **Polyolefins**: Oscillate weakly. The L2509 contract focuses on 7200 - 7500, and the PP2509 contract focuses on 6900 - 7200. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in the off - season, but inventory provides some support [33]. - **Soda Ash**: Exit and wait and observe. Supply is high, and demand is under pressure, but short - term macro factors drive the market [35]. Cotton Spinning Industry - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. Global supply and demand are adjusted, and the domestic market has a tight supply, supporting the price [36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. With low inventory, the price is expected to remain high and oscillate [37]. - **Jujubes**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. New - season production and sales area conditions affect the price, which is expected to remain stable and strong [38][39]. Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Hogs**: Oscillate weakly. The short - term supply is strong, and demand is weak. Consider shorting the 09 and 11 contracts and going long on the 01 contract [40][41]. - **Eggs**: Short at high levels. Short - term price increases are limited, and supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter [41]. - **Corn**: Oscillate within a range (2250 - 2350). Consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread. Short - term supply - demand is in a game, and mid - long - term supply is tightening [42]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. In the short - term, go long on the M2509 contract at low levels; in the mid - long - term, pay attention to weather conditions and go long on relevant contracts at low levels [43][44]. - **Oils**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. In the short - term, trade within the range for 09 contracts and buy on dips [45][50]. Global Major Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,593.66, down 0.33%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,168.14, down 0.22%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4,127.16, down 0.53%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2,795.51, down 0.60%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6,299.59, up 0.10%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 5,903.58, up 0.25% [2]. - The Nikkei Index closed at 41,456.23, down 0.88%; the Dow Jones Index closed at 44,901.92, up 0.47%; the S&P 500 Index closed at 6,388.64, up 0.40%; the Nasdaq Index closed at 21,108.32, up 0.24% [2]. - The US Dollar Index closed at 97.6674, up 0.18%; the RMB exchange rate was 7.1679, up 0.18% [2]. - New York Gold closed at 3,338.50, down 0.97%; WTI Crude Oil closed at 65.16, down 1.32% [2]. - LME Copper closed at 9,796.00, down 0.59%; LME Aluminum closed at 2,631.00, down 0.57%; LME Zinc closed at 2,829.00, down 0.40%; LME Lead closed at 2,020.50, down 0.12%; LME Nickel closed at 15,265.00, down 1.33% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mainstream transaction price of bauxite in Guinea decreased by $0.4 per dry ton to $72.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, leading to a decline in bauxite shipments, which supports the ore price. However, market rumors of the resumption of a large mine in Guinea may reverse the expected structural shortage of imported ore supply in the third quarter, so the upward range of the ore price is expected to be limited [3][10]. - The operating capacity of alumina increased by 1.1 million tons week - on - week to 94.95 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 19,000 tons week - on - week to 3.207 million tons. With the gradual resumption of production of reduced - capacity and the release of new capacity, the operating capacity of alumina is gradually recovering. Bullish sentiment has cooled, and alumina may face an adjustment [3][14]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons to 44.214 million tons. Some remaining capacity in Guizhou Anshun is being resumed, the replacement capacity of Yunlv Yixin is being put into production, and the technical renovation project of Baise Yinhai is gradually resuming production. The downstream demand of aluminum is weakening, with the weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreasing by 0.1% to 58.8%. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, while the inventory of aluminum rods increased [3]. - In the case of recycled cast aluminum alloy, downstream enterprises are gradually entering the high - temperature holiday, with insufficient new orders. High scrap aluminum prices and a sharp increase in industrial silicon prices have led to great loss pressure on enterprises, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum enterprises will continue the downward trend [3]. - The short - term risk of aluminum prices is still high, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to market changes. The Fed's interest - rate meeting and the China - US London talks are about to take place, and attention should be paid to the meeting results and negotiation outcomes [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Strategy Suggestions - Alumina: It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels when the price rebounds [4]. - Shanghai Aluminum: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.2. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the price is temporarily stable. Stricter safety production supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan have restricted bauxite mining activities, and some mines have suspended production. Frequent rainfall in major domestic producing areas has also restricted ore mining [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.4 per dry ton to $72.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, and the bauxite shipment volume has shown a downward trend. The expected tightening of spot supply supports the upward movement of the ore price, but the expected structural shortage of imported ore supply in the third quarter may be reversed, so the upward range of the ore price is limited [3][10]. 3.3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of alumina was 113.02 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100,000 tons, the operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 million tons, and the operating rate was 84.01%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,257 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 37.9 yuan per ton. The national alumina inventory was 3.207 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons [14]. - Newly invested capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions is gradually contributing to alumina production. A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Shandong has expanded and upgraded its capacity, and it is expected to reach full production this week. Although a red mud reservoir in a south - western alumina enterprise has a landslide risk due to heavy rain, the current production has not been affected [14]. 3.4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.214 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [23]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily. Some remaining capacity in Guizhou Anshun is being resumed, the replacement capacity of Yunlv Yixin is being put into production, contributing a net increase of 35,000 tons of capacity, and the 120,000 - ton capacity of the Baise Yinhai technical renovation project will be gradually powered on and resumed production in the third quarter [3][23]. 3.5. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 53.1%. Downstream enterprises are gradually entering the high - temperature holiday, with insufficient new orders. High scrap aluminum prices and a sharp increase in industrial silicon prices have led to great loss pressure on enterprises, and the operating rate will continue the downward trend. However, recent concentrated shipments from delivery brand enterprises to spot - futures traders support the operating rate to remain relatively high in the off - season [34]. 3.6. Downstream开工率 - The weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises remained stable at 50.5% week - on - week. In the industrial profile segment, the operating rate remained unchanged. In the building profile segment, affected by the downturn in the real estate industry and seasonal factors, sample enterprises reported average existing orders and weak new orders, and the operating rate remained unchanged [43]. - Aluminum plates and strips: The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 63.2% week - on - week. With high aluminum prices, downstream customers are waiting and watching, and the finished product inventory of each aluminum plate and strip enterprise is high. Enterprises reported that it is the off - season for exports, and there is little hope for the recovery of export orders. In addition, aluminum plate and strip enterprises in various regions have not reduced production due to high - temperature power rationing [43]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 61.6%. Although the operating rate of some enterprises has improved marginally due to order scheduling and the delivery of UHV and power transmission and transformation orders, some enterprises' strategy of reducing raw material and finished product inventories has led to a weakening of the overall operating rate. Attention should be paid to whether the matching of power grid orders in August can reopen the industry's concentrated delivery cycle [46]. - Primary aluminum alloy: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises remained stable at 54% week - on - week. Although the task of aluminum - water alloying and the strategy of aluminum rod conversion continue to provide marginal support, most sample enterprises are restricted by weak terminal demand, insufficient new orders, thin profit margins, and high - temperature holidays, and the operating rate is weakly stable [46].

铜周报：国内政策推动铜价，关注铜关税落地 2025-7-28 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 供给端：铜矿供应持续偏紧，铜精矿加工费持续位于历史低位。截至7月25日，铜精矿进口粗炼费为-42.75美元/吨，铜精矿现货加 工费自5月初跌至-43美元后维持至今，供给端矿冶矛盾持续演绎。 需求端：上周（7月18日-7月24日）国内精铜杆企业开工率下降到69.37%，环比下降4.85个百分点，同比下降8.85个百分点。铜价 上涨后，下游消费在上周短暂回暖后又再度呈现疲弱，企业新增订单和提货量都有所减少，精铜杆企业的开工率出现下降。 库存：截至7月25日，上海期货交易所铜库存7.34万吨，周环比-13.17%，持续下探至历年低位。截止7月24日，国内铜社会库存 11.42万吨，周去库2.91万吨，环比-20.3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in urea plant maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, with daily production running at 19 - 20 million tons. Agricultural fertilizer demand is sporadic, while compound fertilizer production has been continuously increasing, and it is expected that the demand for raw material replenishment will gradually increase. Other industrial demands remain stable. The inventory of urea enterprises continues to decline, but the rate of decline has significantly slowed down, while the accumulation rate of port inventory has accelerated. The overall supply - demand pattern is neutral. With the cooling of speculative demand for some varieties on Friday night, it is expected that urea prices will first weaken and then strengthen in the short term, with support at 1700 - 1730 and resistance at 1820 - 1850 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price first strengthened and then weakened. On July 25, the closing price of the urea 2509 contract was 1,803 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 3.32%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1,806 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 0.56% [2][4] - The basis of the urea main contract first strengthened and then weakened, with a weekly basis operating range of 0 - 55 yuan/ton. On July 25, the main contract basis in the Henan market was 3 yuan/ton, 48 yuan/ton weaker than the previous week [2][7] - The 9 - 1 spread of urea weakened and turned negative. On July 25, the 9 - 1 spread was - 4 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of - 4 - 32 yuan/ton [2][7] Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 83.35%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 75.86%, an increase of 2.41 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average urea output was 193,500 tons. The supply remains at a high level [2][10] Cost - The price of anthracite coal has shown a slight adjustment in a stable range. Downstream coal - using enterprises' raw material coal procurement is still mainly for rigid demand, and the acceptance of high - priced coal is generally low. The anthracite lump coal market was tepid, with stable prices, while the slack coal and clean coal markets continued to be strong, and coal prices still had an upward trend [13] Demand - The national summer harvest and sowing are basically completed. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 33.58%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week, rising slightly for three consecutive weeks. Compound fertilizer enterprises are gradually entering the stage of fertilizer preparation and shipment, and they purchase raw material urea on dips. The production of fertilizer enterprises is gradually increasing, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer may continue to rise next week. The demand from other industries such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin remains stable [2][15] Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 733,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week, and the de - stocking rate has slowed down. Urea port inventory was 565,000 tons, an increase of 122,000 tons from the previous week, and the port inventory accumulation rate has accelerated. There were 2,523 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 50,460 tons [2][26] Key Points to Watch - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer plants, urea plant production cuts and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; Treasury bonds are rated for profit - taking [6] - Black Building Materials: Rebar is rated for shock; Iron ore is rated for an upward - trending shock; Coking coal and coke are rated for cautious trial - buying [7][8][10] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is rated for range trading or waiting; Aluminum is rated for waiting; Nickel is rated for shorting on rallies; Tin is rated for range trading; Gold and silver are rated for range trading [12][14][18] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC is rated for an upward - trending shock; Caustic soda is rated for shock; Styrene is rated for shock; Rubber is rated for an upward - trending shock; Urea and methanol are rated neutral; Polyolefins are rated for a downward - trending shock; Soda ash is rated for waiting and exiting [22][24][26][27][30][31][33][34] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are rated for an upward - trending shock; Apples and jujubes are rated for shock [36][37] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs and eggs are rated for shorting on rallies; Corn is rated for range trading; Soybean meal and oils are rated for an upward - trending shock [39][41][42][44][45][46] Core Views The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the market situation of each product from aspects such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international events, and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on the analysis results [1][6][8] Summaries by Directory Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to factors such as the Fed's "renovation gate", the European Central Bank's interest - rate policy, China's policy adjustments, and market sentiment changes [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a weak shock. It is recommended to preserve strength and wait for better opportunities to enter the market for allocation due to the influence of investors' behavior and the performance of large - category assets [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price is in a shock state. The raw materials drive the steel price up, but the supply - demand contradiction in the off - season is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of shorting futures while going long on the spot [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price is in an upward - trending shock. The policy expectation at the end of the month is enhanced, the demand is relatively strong, and the supply is stable. It is expected that the price will continue to be strong [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand, and the short - term price support is strong. The coke market has obvious supply - demand game characteristics. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as the progress of coal - mine resumption, the continuity of coke price increases, and steel - mill profits [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is in a high - level shock. Factors such as the US tariff policy, domestic supply - side reform, and seasonal demand changes affect the price. It is recommended for range trading or waiting [12] - **Aluminum**: The price is in a high - level shock. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory accumulation [14] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply in the nickel industry is excessive, and the price is expected to be in a shock state. It is recommended to short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is gradually improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19] - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of precious metals are in a shock state. The US economic data and tariff policy expectations affect the price. It is recommended for range trading [20][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is still weak, but the policy expectation is dominant, and the price is in an upward - trending shock. It is necessary to pay attention to the support at 5150 [22][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The price is in a shock state, and the 09 contract temporarily pays attention to 2500 - 2700 [24][25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental support is limited, and the macro - environment is warm. The price is in a shock state, and it temporarily pays attention to 7300 - 7700 [26][27] - **Rubber**: The raw materials are firm, and the inventory shows a small - scale de - stocking trend, but the market sentiment is weakening. The price is in an upward - trending shock, and it pays attention to the pressure at 15000 [27][29] - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the de - stocking trend continues. The price is expected to be in a shock state, with a reference range of 1680 - 1850 [30] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, the demand of the methanol - to - olefins industry increases slightly, and the traditional demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a shock state [32] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has a small - scale de - stocking. The price is expected to return to the fundamentals, with a short - term rebound but limited strength [32][33] - **Soda Ash**: Affected by the news of the work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, the futures price rises sharply. It is recommended to wait and exit the market [34][35] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation changes, the downstream consumption is light, but the spot market is tight. The price is expected to be in an upward - trending shock [36] - **Apples**: The trading in the production area is on - demand, the supply in the early - maturing fruit market is limited, and the price is expected to be in a shock state [37] - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujube growth is in the physiological fruit - dropping stage, the arrival volume in the sales area is small, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term [37] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pressure exists, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 and 11 contracts and wait and see for the 01 contract [39][40] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply pressure is weakened, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract and wait for buying opportunities at low prices for the 12 and 01 contracts [41][42] - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game intensifies, and the price is in a range shock. It is recommended to be cautious in going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse - spread opportunity [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is in a shock state. The medium - and long - term supply gap exists, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [45][46] - **Oils**: The prices of various oils are in an upward - trending shock. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in the corresponding intervals [46][51]