Report Title - "High-level Fluctuations, Awaits New Cotton Listing" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to tight spot markets, an improved macro - environment, and consumption expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October." As new cotton is set to be listed in late September with a significant increase in production, there will be a game between cotton farmers and ginners. It is predicted that ginners will purchase relatively cautiously, and there will be greater pressure when a large amount of new cotton is listed around the National Day. The price in September is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and enterprises can seize the opportunity to hedge for new cotton. The basis is expected to remain strong. The cotton yarn market mainly follows cotton prices but faces greater pressure later due to intense industrial chain competition and declining exports [61]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Trend Review - In August, Zhengzhou cotton prices fluctuated at a high level. The tight spot market supported prices, while the expected large increase in Xinjiang cotton production in the new year suppressed the market. Macro - factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, a phased Sino - US agreement, and an improved domestic macro - environment were favorable for commodity prices. With the consumption expectations of the "Golden September and Silver October," cotton prices remained high. Cotton yarn mainly followed cotton prices, but due to obvious over - capacity, spinning profits were significantly compressed, and the pressure would increase with the continued expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity [7]. 2. Supply - side Analysis 2.1 Global Supply - Demand Balance - According to the USDA's August global cotton supply - demand forecast report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, import, and export volumes were all adjusted downward month - on - month, and the ending inventory decreased. In the 2024/25 season, the total global cotton production was expected to be adjusted downward month - on - month, consumption to increase, and exports to decrease, and the ending inventory declined again. In 2025/26, the expected global cotton production was 2539.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.1 million tons (1.5%); consumption was 2568.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0 million tons (0.1%); imports were 948.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.9 million tons (2.5%); exports were 949.0 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.0 million tons (2.5%); and the global ending inventory was 1609.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 74.2 million tons (4.4%) [13]. 2.2 US Cotton - In 2025/26, the US cotton planting area was 56.311 million mu, a month - on - month decrease of 5.117 million mu; the harvested area was 44.65 million mu, a month - on - month decrease of 7.928 million mu; the abandonment rate was 20.7%, a month - on - month increase of 6.3 percentage points. The expected yield per mu was 64.4 kg, a month - on - month increase of 4.0 kg; the production was 2.877 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 302,000 tons. Consumption was expected to be 370,000 tons with no obvious month - on - month adjustment; exports were expected to be 2.613 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 109,000 tons. The ending inventory decreased by 218,000 tons to 784,000 tons [14]. 2.3 Indian Cotton - According to the Indian Cotton Association's July supply - demand balance sheet, in the 2023/24 season, the expected production was 5.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 190,000 tons (3.4%); imports were expected to be 258,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 40,000 tons (13.1%). There was no obvious month - on - month adjustment in demand data, and the ending inventory increased by 153,000 tons to 666,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.8%. In the 2024/25 season, the beginning inventory increased to 666,000 tons, and there was no obvious month - on - month adjustment in production and import expectations, which were 5.294 million tons and 663,000 tons respectively. In terms of demand, the expected consumption was 5.338 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 102,000 tons (1.9%); exports were expected to be 306,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons (5.9%). The ending inventory increased by 34,000 tons to 979,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% [20]. 2.4 Brazilian Cotton - CONAB's 2024/25 cotton production forecast data showed that the expected cotton - planting area in Brazil was 2.086 million hectares (about 31.29 million mu), a year - on - year increase of 7.3%; the expected national yield per mu was 125.8 kg, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. Based on this, the expected total cotton production in Brazil in 2024/25 was 3.935 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. In the 2024/25 season, Brazil exported 2.835 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, setting a new record, and it remained the world's largest cotton exporter, with cumulative revenue of about $4.85 billion. Brazilian cotton was mainly exported to Vietnam, Pakistan, and China, totaling 1.48 million tons [23]. 2.5 Domestic Supply - In the 2025/26 season, the beginning inventory decreased by 120,000 tons to 6.24 million tons. In terms of production, Xinjiang's production increased by 120,000 tons to 6.59 million tons month - on - month, and inland production decreased by 3,000 tons to about 310,000 tons, with the national total production increasing by about 120,000 tons to 6.9 million tons month - on - month. Imports were expected to continue to decrease by 100,000 tons to 1.4 million tons. The total annual supply decreased by 100,000 tons to 14.54 million tons. In terms of total demand, the overall textile cotton demand would remain stable at a relatively high level. The expected annual textile cotton consumption was maintained at 7.9 million tons, and other consumption and exports remained unchanged at 380,000 tons and 20,000 tons respectively, with total demand stable at 8.3 million tons [24]. 2.6 Inventory and Imports - At the end of July, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons (22.62%) from the previous month and 588,400 tons (21.18%) lower than the same period last year. As of the end of July, the textile enterprises' in - stock industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the end of the previous month. The disposable cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.2062 million tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons from the end of the previous month. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 3.0882 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 497,000 tons. As of August 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons (16.88%) from the end of July. As of August 15, the textile enterprises' in - stock industrial cotton inventory was 924,200 tons, an increase of 25,800 tons from the end of the previous month. The disposable cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.2345 million tons, an increase of 28,300 tons from the end of the previous month. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 2.7444 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from the end of July. In July 2025, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons (66.7%) and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons (73.2%). From January to July 2025, China imported 520,000 tons of cotton cumulatively, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In the 2024/25 season (from September 2024 to August 2025), the cumulative cotton imports were 1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.8%. In July 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of about 20,000 tons (16.4%); from January to July 2025, the cumulative cotton - yarn imports were 780,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14%. In the 2024/25 season (from September 2024 to July 2025), the cumulative cotton - yarn imports were about 1.28 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.95% [26][31]. 3. Demand - side Analysis 3.1 Domestic Demand - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.29%. From January to July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 28.4238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In July, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products were 96.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.63%. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 837.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [38]. 3.2 Foreign Demand - In July 2025, China exported $26.766 billion worth of textiles and clothing, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%. Among them, textile exports were $11.604 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.55% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%; clothing exports were $15.162 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.55% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%. From January to July 2025, China exported $170.741 billion worth of textiles and clothing, a year - on - year increase of 0.63%. Among them, textile exports were $82.122 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%; clothing exports were $88.619 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [41]. 3.3 Textile Industry Inventory - In June, the inventory of the textile industry was 401.53 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 1.12%. The finished - product inventory of the textile industry was 215.3 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.18% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The inventory of textile and clothing was 187.98 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36%. The finished - product inventory of textile and clothing was 99.31 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year increase of 1.68% [43]. 3.4 US Retail Sales and Inventory - In June 2025, the retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories in the US (seasonally adjusted) were $26.342 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.88% and a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. In May 2025, the inventory of clothing and clothing - accessory retailers in the US (seasonally adjusted) was $58.056 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.98% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.49%. The inventory - to - sales ratio of US clothing and clothing - accessory retailers in May 2025 (seasonally adjusted) was 2.22, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06 and a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 [48]. 3.5 Industrial Chain Operation - In the cotton - yarn market, downstream procurement increased, and the overall performance improved slightly but was still mediocre. In terms of price, spinners' quotes increased slightly, and downstream gradually digested them, but the acceptance of high prices was poor. In terms of profit, there was little change. Currently, the cash - flow loss of inland spinners for C32S was about 500 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang spinners still had a small profit. In terms of inventory and operation, the transaction in the pure - cotton yarn market continued, and spinners continued to reduce inventory slightly. There was little change in the operation rate this week, and inland spinners continued to limit production. In the all - cotton grey - cloth market, the demand improved slightly, and the order volume of all - cotton weavers increased slightly, mainly small and scattered orders, and the recovery speed was lower than expected. This week, the operation rate of all - cotton grey - cloth increased slightly, the sales volume increased slightly, and weavers reported maintaining production - sales balance, with the current inventory decreasing slightly. It was reported that the order volume in the Nantong home - textile market was insufficient, the competition among weavers was fierce, and the operation - rate recovery was insufficient. The knitting orders in the Foshan area continued, but the operation - rate recovery was limited. The order - receiving situation of weavers in the northern region was average. Weavers generally had little confidence in September, and the marginal improvement in raw - material procurement enthusiasm was limited, generally maintaining just - in - time purchasing [51]. 4. Logic and Outlook - Cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and enterprises can hedge for new cotton. The basis is expected to remain strong. Cotton yarn mainly follows cotton prices but faces greater pressure later due to intense competition in the industrial chain and declining exports [61].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, recommend holding a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommend range trading; bearish on glass, expect weak performance [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Bullish on copper at low levels, recommend moderate long positions; neutral on aluminum, recommend buying on dips; bearish on nickel, recommend waiting or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, silver, and gold, recommend range trading [1][10][11][14][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, expect weak oscillations; neutral on caustic soda, expect oscillations; neutral on styrene, expect weak oscillations; neutral on rubber, expect oscillations; neutral on urea and methanol, expect oscillations; neutral on polyolefins, expect wide - range oscillations; recommend shorting 01 and going long on 05 for soda ash [1][17][19][21][22][24][26][27][29] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, expect oscillations; bullish on apples, expect strong oscillations; neutral on jujubes, expect oscillations [1][32][33] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on hogs and eggs, recommend shorting on rallies; neutral on corn, expect range oscillations; neutral on soybean meal, expect limited upside; neutral on oils and fats, expect high - level oscillations [1][35][38][40][42][44] Core Views - The A - share market is expected to remain strong in the short term due to favorable fundamentals, regulatory support, and reasonable valuations. The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and short - end constraints, and investors should wait for market pressure to ease [5] - The black building materials market is affected by factors such as production resumption, demand recovery, and inventory levels, and most varieties are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [7][8] - The non - ferrous metals market is influenced by macro policies, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors. Some varieties have upward potential, while others are affected by supply surpluses and should be traded according to market conditions [10][11][14] - The energy and chemicals market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand, and policies. Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties need to pay attention to policy and cost disturbances [17][19][21] - The cotton and textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand changes, seasonal factors, and new crop production expectations. Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short term but face downward pressure in the future [32] - The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, and seasonal consumption. Some varieties are under pressure, while others are expected to oscillate [35][38][40] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: On Thursday, the A - share market rose, and the market is expected to remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market was weak on Thursday, and the curve shape is flat. Short - term investors should pay attention to redemption and wait for market pressure to ease [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Coal prices continued to decline, and production resumed after rainfall. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and range trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: Affected by the steel industry's growth - stabilization plan, rebar prices rose. The supply - demand situation is weak in reality, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with range trading recommended [7][8] - **Glass**: Glass futures continued to be weak. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices. Near - month contracts may decline slightly, and the main 01 contract should be observed [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Jackson Hole meeting and domestic policies boosted copper prices. The demand is expected to increase in the future, and it is recommended to hold long positions at low levels [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition. It is recommended to buy on dips for electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and wait and see for alumina [10][11][12] - **Nickel**: The nickel industry has a long - term supply surplus, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is improving limitedly, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [15] - **Silver and Gold**: Powell's dovish speech and trade negotiation results supported precious metal prices. It is recommended to buy on dips [15][16] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: PVC has high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17][18][19] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price increase slowed down, and the market is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to downstream stocking and export [20][21] - **Styrene**: The chemical market weakened, and styrene's supply - demand is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [21][22] - **Rubber**: The new rubber release is slow, and the inventory is decreasing. The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly within the range [22][23] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is increasing, and the demand is scattered. The price is expected to be weak first and then strong [24] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and the port inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [26] - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyethylene decreased, and the demand increased slightly. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate, and the L - PP spread is expected to widen [27][28] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, and the supply is surplus. It is recommended to short 01 and go long on 05 [30][31] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply - demand is improving, but new crop production may put downward pressure on prices. Hedging preparations are recommended [32] - **Apples**: Early - maturing apples have strong prices, and the market is expected to remain strong [33] - **Jujubes**: Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [33] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: The spot price is weak, and the supply is large. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [35][37] - **Eggs**: The egg price may rebound slightly in the short term, but the supply is high in the long term. It is recommended to short on rallies [38][39] - **Corn**: The supply is sufficient, and the new crop may face selling pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [40][41][42] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic supply is abundant in September - October, and the price is under pressure but supported by cost [42][43][44] - **Oils and Fats**: The three major oils are expected to oscillate at high levels. It is recommended to conduct range trading and gradually exit the palm oil 1 - 5 spread long strategy [44][45][49]

Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - Index Futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips [1] - Treasury Bonds: Hold and wait [1] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Weakening with oscillations [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Recommend holding a moderate long position at low levels [1] - Aluminum: Recommend buying on dips after a pullback [1] - Nickel: Recommend waiting or shorting on rallies [1] - Tin: Range trading [1] - Gold: Range trading [1] - Silver: Range trading [1] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Oscillating [1] - Soda Ash: Short 01 contract and long 05 contract for arbitrage [1] - Caustic Soda: Oscillating [1] - Styrene: Oscillating [1] - Rubber: Oscillating [1] - Urea: Oscillating [1] - Methanol: Oscillating [1] - Polyolefins: Wide - range oscillations [1] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillating [1] - Apples: Oscillating [1] - Jujubes: Oscillating [1] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: Short on rallies [1] - Eggs: Short on rallies [1] - Corn: Wide - range oscillations [1] - Soybean Meal: Range oscillations [1] - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market analysis for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and gives corresponding investment suggestions. Summary by Industry Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate. Coal prices continue to decline, with production gradually resuming after rainfall. Downstream is cautious, and it is recommended to trade within the range, with JM2601 focusing on [1110 - 1250] and J2601 on [1610 - 1780] [5] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate. Futures prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamental data shows changes in demand, production, and inventory. It is recommended to trade within the range, with RB2510 focusing on [3100 - 3200] [5] - **Glass**: Near - month contracts may decline slightly, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view. The main 01 contract is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the 1150 - 1200 range breakthrough. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices [6] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. Positive news from the Jackson Hole meeting and domestic policies boost copper prices. Although there are some constraints in the short - term supply and demand, there is potential for price increases in the future. It is recommended to hold a moderate long position at low levels, with the short - term operating range at 79500 - 81000 yuan/ton [8][9] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of bauxite is supported, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. With the arrival of the demand peak season and marginal improvement in inventory, it is recommended to buy on dips [8][9][10] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [12] - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate. Supply improvement is limited, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to trade within the range, with the reference range of the SHFE Tin 09 contract at 25.9 - 27.6 million yuan/ton [13] - **Silver and Gold**: Expected to oscillate. Powell's dovish speech and other factors support precious metal prices. It is recommended to buy on dips after a price correction, with the reference range of the SHFE Silver 10 contract at 8900 - 9600 and the SHFE Gold 10 contract at 765 - 810 [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. High inventory, uncertain export sustainability, and large upstream production pressure lead to a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5100 level pressure on the 01 contract [15][16][17] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate. Spot price increases slow down, and there is a short - term correction. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 level support on the 01 contract [17][18] - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Supply and demand are under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 7300 level pressure [19][20] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. New rubber supply is slow, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15400 - 16500 range [20][21] - **Urea**: Expected to be neutral. Supply is increasing, demand is scattered, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be weak first and then strong, with the support level at 1680 - 1720 [22] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is increasing, demand has some positive factors, but port inventory is accumulating rapidly [23] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to oscillate. The cost of coal - based olefins provides strong support, supply and demand show different trends for polyethylene and polypropylene, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - 7500 range for L2601 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2601 [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage. The spot market is weak, and there is a large inventory pressure in the short term, while the far - month contract may be relatively strong [26][27][28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to oscillate. Global cotton supply and demand are improving, but new cotton production is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to prepare for hedging [29] - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate. Early - maturing apples are on the market, and the inventory of Fuji apples is stable. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation based on low inventory and growth factors [30] - **Jujubes**: Expected to oscillate. The growth of jujubes is in the expansion period, and it is expected that the price will oscillate upward in the near future [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: Overall under pressure. There is a short - term expectation of price increases at the end of the month, but the supply is large in the medium to long term. It is recommended to take profit on short positions on 11 and 01 contracts and wait for rallies to add short positions, and also pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [32][33][34] - **Eggs**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The current supply is sufficient, and the long - term high supply situation may be difficult to reverse. It is recommended to wait for rallies to short on the main 10 contract or hold put options, and take a bearish view on the 12 and 01 contracts [34] - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The supply is sufficient in the short term, and new corn production is expected to be good. It is recommended to wait for rallies to short on the 11 contract and take profit on the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to have limited upside. Domestic arrivals are abundant from September to October, and prices are under pressure, but there is support at the bottom. It is expected to trade within the [3030, 3130] range in the short term [35][38] - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are mixed. It is recommended to trade within the range, with the support and pressure levels for the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil as mentioned, and also pay attention to the long palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage strategy [39][40][41][42][43][44][45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Long-term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, suggesting holding [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Suggesting range trading; bearish on near-term glass contracts [1][8] - Non-ferrous Metals: Suggesting moderately holding long positions at low levels for copper; buying on dips for aluminum; suggesting range trading for nickel and tin; buying on dips for silver and gold after price corrections [1][10] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly; soda ash suggests a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy; other products are mostly expected to oscillate [1][19] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate strongly; apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate [1][34] - Agricultural and Livestock: Bearish on pigs and eggs when prices are high; corn is expected to oscillate within a range; soybean meal is expected to have limited upside; oils are expected to oscillate at high levels [1][38] Core Views - The global stock market has shown a synchronized upward trend after the tariff conflict, mainly due to the global pricing of interest rate cut expectations and the recovery of manufacturing prosperity. The A-share market is expected to enter an upward trend, with the realization of profit improvement expectations as the main driver in the next stage [5] - The bond market shows a stock-bond seesaw effect. Although the bond market is under pressure from the strong performance of the equity market, there is still room for the central bank to increase its holdings of treasury bonds, and the market expects a bond market recovery [5][6] - The prices of black building materials such as coking coal, steel, and glass are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and safety inspections, and are expected to maintain an oscillating or weakening trend in the short term [7][8] - The prices of non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are influenced by factors such as global central bank policies, supply and demand, and inventory. Some metals are expected to have upward potential in the future [10][11] - The prices of energy and chemical products such as PVC, caustic soda, and styrene are affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and macro policies, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [19][22] - The prices of agricultural products such as cotton, apples, and jujubes are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies, and are expected to oscillate or show a strong oscillating trend [34][35] - The prices of agricultural and livestock products such as pigs, eggs, and corn are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, and consumption seasons, and are expected to show different trends in the short and long term [38][40] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Stock Indices: On Tuesday, the market oscillated and adjusted, with the three major indices showing different trends. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan for 10 consecutive days. The market is expected to enter an upward trend, and investors should maintain positions, choose opportunities, and make appropriate internal high-low switches [5] - Treasury Bonds: On Tuesday, the bond market showed a stock-bond seesaw effect. Although the bond market was under pressure from the equity market, the news that the central bank has room to increase its holdings of treasury bonds boosted the bond market. The bond market is expected to recover [5][6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: On August 25, coal prices continued to decline, with the sales atmosphere being cold and the decline slightly increasing. The downstream market has a low willingness to purchase, and safety inspections continue to be upgraded. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [7] - Steel: On Tuesday, steel futures prices were weak. The supply and demand in the real economy have weakened, but the off-season is coming to an end. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [8] - Glass: On August 26, glass futures declined. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices. The near-term contract is expected to decline slightly, while the long-term contract can be observed for signs of stabilization [8] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: After the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, Powell's dovish remarks boosted copper prices. The domestic market demand has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with a suggested strategy of moderately holding long positions at low levels [10] - Aluminum: The price of bauxite in Guinea has increased, and the production and transportation have been affected by the rainy season. The domestic downstream demand is expected to enter the peak season, and the inventory has shown marginal improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [11] - Nickel: The price of nickel ore is expected to remain stable, and the refined nickel market is in a surplus situation. The price of nickel iron is stable, and the price of stainless steel has declined. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium and long term [14][15] - Tin: The domestic refined tin production has increased, and the import of tin concentrate has decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the consumer electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [15] - Silver and Gold: Powell's dovish remarks at the central bank summit have increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The trade negotiation results have been announced, and the market is optimistic about the signing of a trade agreement between Europe and the United States. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real estate market and exports. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy and cost disturbances [19][20] - Caustic Soda: The spot price increase has slowed down, and there is a short-term callback due to warehouse receipt factors. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and export conditions [22] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the supply and demand are expected to be weak, and the macro policy is favorable. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and pure benzene supply [24] - Rubber: The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little, and the inventory has decreased. The tire companies' willingness to purchase high-priced raw materials has decreased. It is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26] - Urea: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, the compound fertilizer inventory is high, and the enterprise inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price support level [28] - Methanol: The supply has increased slightly, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate due to the influence of industrial product prices [29][30] - Polyolefins: The cost is supported by coal-based olefins, the supply of polyethylene has decreased due to maintenance, the downstream demand has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the L contract is expected to have stronger support [30][31] - Soda Ash: The spot market is still sluggish, and the 09 contract faces delivery pressure. The supply is still at a high level, and the downstream demand has improved slightly. It is recommended to implement a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, the macro environment has become better, and the peak season is approaching. The cotton price is expected to be strong [34][35] - Apples: The early-maturing apples are on the market, with the quality and price varying. The inventory of Fuji apples is stable and light. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating trend based on low inventory and growth factors [35] - Jujubes: The jujube trees are in the fruit expansion period, and the weather may affect the quality. The market price is expected to oscillate upward in the near term [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The market has a bullish expectation for the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, but the spot performance is disappointing. The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to take a short position on the 11 and 01 contracts and consider a long 05 and short 03 arbitrage strategy [38][40] - Eggs: The current main contract has a large premium. The spot price may rebound slightly, and it is recommended to short when the price rebounds. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to factors such as chicken culling and cold storage eggs [40][42] - Corn: The new corn is about to be listed, and the supply is expected to increase. The cost has decreased, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds or implement a 11-1 reverse arbitrage strategy [42][44] - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient from September to October, and the price is under pressure from state reserves. However, the cost provides support, and it is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [44][45] - Oils: The prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and policies. They are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a rolling long strategy. Attention should be paid to the palm oil 1-5 spread arbitrage opportunity [46][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on government bonds, recommended to hold off [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bearish on glass, recommended to take a short position on the 09 contract [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, recommended for range trading or waiting for opportunities; recommended to buy aluminum on dips [1][11][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, recommended for range trading; bearish on soda ash for the 09 contract, recommended to hold short positions [1][20][22][25][31] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for long - term investment; neutral on apples and jujubes, recommended for range trading [1][34][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils, recommended to go long on dips [1][37][39][40][42][45] Core Views The stock market is in the second stage of a bull market, with expected incremental capital inflows. The bond market may see a short - term repair if the stock market corrects. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand are relatively balanced, with prices expected to fluctuate. Non - ferrous metal prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand and macro - policies, and are expected to remain volatile. Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by supply, demand, and cost factors, with a weakening supply - demand relationship for some products. In the cotton and textile industry, global supply and demand are improving, and prices are expected to be strong. In the agriculture and animal husbandry sector, supply and demand vary by product, with some facing supply pressure and others showing signs of improvement [6][8][11][20][34][37] Summary by Catalog Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The three major indices continued their strong performance. The market is in the second stage of a bull market, with incremental capital expected. Short - term market tops are difficult to predict, and investors should maintain positions and make appropriate adjustments. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [6] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market started a repair on Monday, breaking through the lower limit of the previous trading range. There is a greater probability that stocks and bonds will follow their own trends in the short term, but the relationship between them is not completely decoupled. The recommended strategy is to hold off [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On August 25, the spot market entered a calm period, with upstream inventory rising and downstream inventory gradually decreasing. Supply recovery was slower than expected, and the overall inventory was healthy. The recommended strategy is range trading, with JM2601 focusing on the range of 1110 - 1250 and J2601 on 1610 - 1780 [8] - **Rebar**: On Monday, the rebar futures price rose and then fell. Fundamentally, demand increased slightly, production decreased, and inventory increased. The price is near the electric furnace cost, with a neutral - low valuation. The recommended strategy is range trading, with RB2510 focusing on the range of 3100 - 3200 [8] - **Glass**: Supply remained stable last week, with high upstream inventory. Demand improved slightly, but the high inventory still suppressed prices. The near - term contract is expected to decline slightly, and the recommended strategy is to take a short position on the 09 contract and wait and see for the 01 contract [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: This week, copper prices remained stable, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. The dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting and domestic policies will support copper prices. Supply has increased, but demand has not shown a turning point. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the short - term operating range of Shanghai copper at 78500 - 79500 yuan/ton [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea has increased, and the production and transportation of bauxite have been affected by the rainy season. The operating capacity of alumina has decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and downstream demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition period. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [12][13] - **Nickel**: The release of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia has led to a slight decline in the price of nickel ore. The refined nickel market is in a surplus, and the price of nickel iron is stable. The price of stainless steel is expected to be strong, and the price of nickel sulfate is stable. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: In July, domestic refined tin production increased, and imports decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and inventory has decreased. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the operating range of Shanghai tin 09 contract at 259,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [16] - **Silver and Gold**: Powell's dovish speech has increased the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The trade negotiation results have reduced the market's concern about tariffs. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips after price corrections, with the operating range of Shanghai silver 10 contract at 8900 - 9600 and Shanghai gold 10 contract at 765 - 810 [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: On August 25, the PVC price was stable. High supply continues, and demand is mainly from soft products and new industries. Exports are facing challenges, and inventory is high. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [20] - **Caustic Soda**: On August 25, the caustic soda price was stable. The macro - environment is improving, supply is decreasing, and demand is increasing. The recommended strategy is to go long on dips, with the 01 contract focusing on the support level of 2650 [22] - **Styrene**: On August 25, the styrene price was stable. The cost is affected by factors such as crude oil and pure benzene. Supply is sufficient, and demand is limited. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the focus on the range of 7100 - 7400 [24][25] - **Rubber**: On August 25, the rubber price was stable. Supply was affected by typhoons, and inventory was decreasing. However, downstream acceptance of high prices was limited. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the focus on the range of 15200 - 15600 [26] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is increasing, and the demand is scattered. Inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term and then strengthen. The recommended strategy is to pay attention to the price support level of 1680 - 1720 [28][29] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is stable. Traditional demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to fluctuate [29] - **Polyolefins**: On August 25, the polyolefin price was stable. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition period. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the L2509 contract focusing on the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, and the 09 contract is under pressure. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions [31][33] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are improving, and the macro - environment is favorable. The price is expected to be strong [34] - **Apples**: The early - maturing apple market is in a state of polarization, and the price of stored apples is stable. The price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [35] - **Jujubes**: The jujube market is in the growth period, and the price is expected to fluctuate upward [36] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is weak, and the supply pressure is large in the fourth quarter. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies, with the 11 contract pressure level at 14200 - 14500 and the 01 contract at 14500 - 14700. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38][39] - **Eggs**: The egg price is weak in the peak season, and the supply pressure is gradually relieved. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies for the 10 contract, and there may be opportunities to go long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts if the elimination process accelerates [39] - **Corn**: The new corn is about to be listed, and the supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be weak, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies for the 11 contract or hold the 11 - 1 reverse spread [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The arrival of soybeans in September - October is sufficient, and the price is under pressure. However, cost support limits the decline. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the range of 3080 - 3200 [42][44] - **Oils**: The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to remain high and fluctuate. The recommended strategy is to go long on dips or use a rolling long strategy. Also, pay attention to the long palm oil 1 - 5 spread strategy [45][52][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of pigs is expected to increase significantly after September, and the price may experience a phased rebound but with limited upside potential. In the long - term, prices will continue to face pressure. For eggs, short - term supply is abundant, restricting price increases, while long - term high supply may be difficult to reverse. Corn supply is sufficient in the short - term, and the price may decline due to concentrated new - crop supply and lower costs [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - As of August 22, the national spot price of pigs was 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.61 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg. The futures price of live pigs 2511 was 13,840 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - contract basis was - 230 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [4][15]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The inventory of breeding sows is sufficient, and production performance has improved. The supply of pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August has increased. The proportion of small and large pigs in weekly slaughter has increased, and the average slaughter weight has risen for two consecutive weeks. - Demand: Weekly slaughter capacity and volume have slightly increased, but the fresh - meat sales rate has fluctuated narrowly, and the frozen - meat inventory rate has slightly increased. The demand is expected to increase at the end of August, but the profit of slaughtering enterprises is still in the red, limiting the increase in demand. - Cost: The price of piglets has decreased, the price of binary breeding sows has remained flat, the self - breeding and self - raising profit has turned negative, and the cost of fattening pigs has slightly increased [4]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows increased from May to November 2024, decreased slightly from December 2024 to January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance of sows has reached the highest level in the past four years, and the number of newborn piglets has increased [20]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The state's pork purchase and storage mainly boost market sentiment. The supply pressure will be alleviated, and consumption is expected to improve, which may drive a phased price rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long - term, the supply will increase before May next year, and prices will continue to face pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short - sell on the 11 and 01 contracts, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4]. 3.2 Eggs 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - As of August 22, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.11 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main 2510 contract was 3033 yuan/500 kg, down 149 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 393 yuan/500 kg, up 169 yuan/500 kg [6][66]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The number of newly - laid hens in August remains high. Although the culling of old hens has accelerated, the supply of cold - storage eggs has supplemented the market, and the overall supply is still abundant. The inventory of laying hens in July reached the highest level in the same period in history. - Demand: The current low egg price has stimulated downstream procurement, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. However, the inventory in each link has increased [6]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The number of newly - laid hens from September to November 2025 is expected to be large due to high replenishment from May to July 2025. The enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has declined, and the supply growth may slow down [89]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The egg price may stop falling and rebound, but the high supply in the short - term will limit the increase. If the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season fails again, the culling may increase, alleviating the supply pressure in the distant months. It is recommended to short - sell on the 10 contract after the price rebounds or hold put options. If the culling process accelerates, there may be opportunities to go long on the 12 and 01 contracts [6]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Weekly Market Review - As of August 22, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main 2511 contract was 2175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 115 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [7][95]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The inventory of traders is low, but the new spring corn in North China has been launched, and the policy - related grain rotation has supplemented the supply. The import of corn in July decreased significantly. - Demand: The demand for feed has increased, but the high price difference between corn and wheat has squeezed the feed demand for corn. The deep - processing industry is still in the red, and the start - up rate is low [7]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The 2025/2026 corn planting is stable, and the climate suitability is very high. The planting cost has decreased [114]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The supply of corn is sufficient in the short - term, and the price may be under pressure due to the concentrated supply of new crops and lower costs. It is recommended to short - sell on the 11 contract after the price rebounds or hold the 11 - 1 reverse spread [7].

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of carbonate lithium was affected by mine shutdowns and permit reviews, while overseas imports showed mixed trends. The cost of some manufacturers was under pressure, and the demand showed an upward trend in August. The inventory was in a destocking state. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term but will continue to fluctuate widely, and cautious trading is recommended [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply - Last week, the output of carbonate lithium increased by 345 tons to 20,438 tons, and the output in July increased by 5.8% to 85,690 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine was confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and manufacturers in Yichun and Qinghai received notices for mine - right transfer reviews. The cost - reduction space of Australian mines is limited, and most have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In July 2025, China's lithium ore imports were 751,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. The imports from Australia were about 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. The imports from Zimbabwe decreased by 36% month - on - month, and those from Nigeria increased by 47% month - on - month. The imports of carbonate lithium in July were 14,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22%, and 9,000 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 62% [5] Cost - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Manufacturers with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5] Demand - The overall production schedule in August increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increasing by 7% month - on - month. In July, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. The total export was 23.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% but a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The sales volume was 127.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% but a year - on - year increase of 47.8%. Policies are expected to support the sales growth of new energy vehicles in China [6] Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium was in a destocking state, with factory inventory decreasing by 1,590 tons, market inventory decreasing by 591 tons, and futures inventory increasing by 1,505 tons [6] Strategy Suggestion - It is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is good, but there are still risks in mine certificates, and the cost center has shifted upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery manufacturers has increased. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term but will continue to fluctuate widely. Cautious trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material manufacturers [6] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, production and output - loading volume differences of power batteries, production of different cathode materials, import volume of lithium spodumene and carbonate lithium, and market prices of related materials [8][10][12] - In July 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 22.56% from salt lakes, 22.05% from lithium mica, and 43.87% from lithium spodumene [20][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, under the low inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans, a decrease in yield and improvement in exports may further tighten the ratio, with US soybean prices expected to run strongly around 1030 cents per bushel. In China, from September to October, arrivals are abundant, and prices are pressured by the uncertainty of state reserves release and US soybean purchases. However, due to cost support, significant price drops are unlikely. In the short - term, prices will mainly operate within the range of [3080, 3200]. In the long - term, soybean meal prices will follow the upward trend of US soybeans, but the increase may be less than that of US soybeans [6]. - For oils, the improvement in demand combined with the tightening supply provides upward momentum. Currently, the fundamentals of the three major domestic oils are mainly positive. In the short - term, the three major oils are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of August 22, the spot price in East China was 3020 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The M2601 contract closed at 3088 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 49 yuan/ton. The basis price was 01 - 100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton. US soybeans rebounded to around 1060 cents per bushel, while the domestic soybean meal trend was inverted, and the market was pressured by state reserves release and US soybean purchases [6]. 3.1.2 Supply - In the first half of August, precipitation in US soybean - growing areas was less than in July. As of August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans remained around 68%, and it is expected to decline. In China, arrivals from August to October are sufficient, but after October, supply may gradually decrease due to the slow pace of US soybean purchases. However, the possibility of state reserves release and US soybean purchases still exists [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the inventory of pigs and poultry was at a high level, supporting the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year in the second half of the year, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - In the 25/26 season, the planting cost of US soybeans decreased to 1135 cents per bushel. The bottom price of US soybeans is expected to be around 980 cents per bushel, and it is expected to fluctuate around 1030 cents per bushel. The bottom price of domestic soybean meal cost has risen to 3060 yuan/ton [6]. 3.1.5 Market Summary and Strategy - In the short - term, soybean meal prices will mainly operate within the range of [3080, 3200]. In the long - term, they will follow the upward trend of US soybeans. The strategy is to mainly conduct range operations on M2601, lay out long positions at the lower edge of the range, and gradually reduce positions at high prices. Spot enterprises should increase positions in a rolling manner [6]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week ending August 22, the palm oil main 01 contract rose 132 yuan/ton to 9592 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 01 contract fell 76 yuan/ton to 8458 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 01 contract rose 133 yuan/ton to 9890 yuan/ton. The domestic oil market showed slight differentiation this week [80]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB July report showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil only accumulated to 2.13 million tons, lower than market expectations. In August, the export demand of Malaysian palm oil rebounded strongly, while the production increase was slow, so the inventory accumulation speed may continue to slow down. In Indonesia, the ending inventory continued to decline to 2.53 million tons in June. In China, palm oil imports have increased, and the short - term supply is expected to remain loose [80]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The Pro Farmer survey estimated the 25/26 season US soybean yield to be 53 bushels per acre, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. However, the USDA August report unexpectedly lowered the sown area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season, and the overall supply - demand situation has tightened. In China, the soybean supply is sufficient until October, but after November, the supply may tighten, which is expected to drive the inventory of soybean oil to decline [80]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has been finalized, which will seriously affect the import of Canadian rapeseed. In the short - term, although there are market rumors about the purchase of Australian rapeseed, the supply of rapeseed in China is expected to be tight before November, which is conducive to the reduction of rapeseed oil inventory [80]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - Currently, the fundamentals of the three major domestic oils are mainly positive. In the short - term, they are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. The strategy is to consider long positions on dips or rolling long positions for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils. For arbitrage, pay attention to the long strategy of the palm oil 1 - 5 spread [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the China - India fertilizer agreement, the weekly urea price first strengthened and then weakened. With supply increasing, demand being weak, and inventories piling up, the spot price weakened significantly over the weekend. It is expected that the urea price will first weaken and then strengthen in the short term, with the 01 contract having support at 1680 - 1720 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Changes - **Price**: On August 22, the closing price of the urea 2509 contract was 1739 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.12%) from last week, with a maximum of 1825 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1741 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (1.52%) from last week [2][4]. - **Basis**: The main urea basis first weakened and then strengthened. On August 22, the main basis in the Henan market was 2 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of -76 - 2 yuan/ton [2][8]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea fluctuated within a range. On August 22, the 9 - 1 spread was -24 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of -34 - -23 yuan/ton [2][8]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: China's urea operating load rate was 84.09%, down 0.36 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 75.15%, down 0.32 percentage points from last week. The average daily urea output was 19.44 tons, and the daily output has recovered to around 200,000 tons [2][11]. - **Cost**: The anthracite market price remained stable. The anthracite mine operation was at a high level, and downstream coal - using enterprises' raw coal procurement was mainly for rigid demand, with general acceptance of high - priced coal. The overall market trading cooled down, and there was insufficient upward momentum for coal prices [2][14]. - **Demand**: National agricultural demand was scattered at this stage. The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 40.84%, down 2.64 percentage points from last week, at a medium - high level. The compound fertilizer inventory was 889,500 tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from last week. Other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin remained stable [2][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 933,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons from last week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Urea port inventory was 795,000 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from last week, with an accelerating inventory accumulation rate. There were 4073 registered urea warrants, totaling 81,460 tons [2][27]. Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to the compound fertilizer start - up situation, urea plant production cuts and overhauls, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overall idea is to go long on dips as Powell's dovish remarks have raised expectations of a Fed rate cut, domestic downstream demand is entering the peak season, and there are signs of marginal improvement in inventory [3]. - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai Aluminum, it is recommended to go long on dips; for cast aluminum alloy, it is also recommended to go long on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Weekly View - **Fundamental Analysis**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.4 per dry ton to $74.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, and the resumption of production at a large mine has encountered uncertainties, supporting the ore price. Alumina operating capacity decreased by 250,000 tons to 95.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 48,000 tons to 3.423 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily by 10,000 tons to 44.319 million tons. The downstream demand is in the transition period between the off - season and peak season, with some sectors showing signs of recovery. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, while that of aluminum rods decreased. The market for recycled cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and enterprises face problems such as insufficient demand and profit inversion, and the new policy on cleaning up illegal fiscal returns and subsidies is pressuring production [3]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Suggest to wait and see for alumina, go long on dips for Shanghai Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [4]. 03. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tightening, and prices in Shanxi and Henan are stable. Stricter safety supervision and environmental inspections, as well as recent frequent rainfall, have restricted mining activities [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.4 per dry ton to $74.5 per dry ton. The rainy season has affected mining and transportation, and the resumption of production at a large mine has encountered uncertainties, supporting the ore price [10]. 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, an increase of 1.6 million tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 83.5%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,233.9 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9.4 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 3.423 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons week - on - week. Newly put - into - production capacities are gradually stabilizing, and individual enterprises plan to conduct maintenance, which will not affect medium - term production. Some high - energy - consuming industries in the northern region have received notices of production restrictions for the military parade, but most alumina enterprises have not [14]. 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.319 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. The operating capacity is increasing steadily, with the resumption of some remaining capacity in Guizhou, the commissioning of replacement capacity at Yunlv Yixin, and the gradual resumption of a 120,000 - ton technical renovation project at Baise Yinhai [23]. 08. Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased during the week, while that of aluminum rods decreased [3]. 09. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 53% week - on - week. The four - ministry joint notice on cleaning up illegal fiscal returns and subsidies has affected the industry, with some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi receiving termination notices of tax refunds, resulting in regional production suspension and shipment suspension. The market is in the off - season, and enterprises face problems such as insufficient demand and profit inversion, and the new policy is pressuring production [32]. 11 & 12. Downstream开工 - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.5% to 60% week - on - week [45]. - For aluminum profiles, the operating rate of leading enterprises remained stable at 50.5% week - on - week. Industrial profiles have relatively stable orders in the photovoltaic and automotive sectors, while construction profiles still have weak demand [45]. - For aluminum strips, the operating rate of leading enterprises increased by 1% to 66% week - on - week. As the traditional peak season approaches, raw material stocking and customer提货 have strengthened, and some enterprises' orders have improved compared to July [45]. - For aluminum cables, the operating rate of domestic leading enterprises increased by 1% to 63.6% week - on - week. With the restart of the power grid construction cycle in September, enterprises are stocking up on raw materials and increasing production [49]. - For primary aluminum alloy, the operating rate of leading enterprises remained stable at 56.6% week - on - week. Downstream enterprises are making trial replenishments for the peak season, but orders are generally average, and the demand for aluminum water consumption has decreased [49].