1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase steadily in September, but the incremental space is limited. The import is expected to continue to increase, while the downstream demand presents a mixed situation. The overall aluminum price is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, peak - season expectations, and capacity ceilings. It is not recommended to chase the price unilaterally, and it is better to enter the market to buy on dips. The strategy of going long on AD or going long on AD and short on AL is recommended [74]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - In August, the overall trend of Shanghai aluminum was oscillating upward within a high - level range. In the early part of the month, factors such as weak US labor market data, dovish remarks from Fed officials, and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, along with rumors of policy changes and strong export data, supported the price increase. However, factors like weak social financing data, inventory accumulation, and geopolitical events led to price corrections and oscillations. Towards the end of the month, dovish remarks from the Fed chairman and improved downstream demand expectations drove the price up [6]. 3.2. Macroeconomic and Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Overseas Macro Indicators**: The Fed has a series of interest - rate adjustment histories, and it is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2025. The European Central Bank has also had multiple interest - rate cuts. Macroeconomic indicators such as manufacturing PMIs in the US, Germany, France, the UK, and Italy, and inflation indicators like PCE and HICP have fluctuated [12][14]. - **Domestic Macro Indicators**: Domestic GDP growth shows certain trends, and social financing scale and its components have different performances. The leverage ratios of different sectors also have their own characteristics. Manufacturing PMIs, exchange rates, inflation indicators (CPI, PPI), and foreign trade data all reflect the domestic economic situation. China's export and import data in July 2025 showed growth, but the export growth may slow down in September due to factors such as the restart of US tariffs [19][25]. 3.3. Aluminum Raw Materials - **Domestic Bauxite**: The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening. Mining activities in Shanxi and Henan are restricted due to safety and environmental supervision, and prices are expected to remain high in September as domestic mine capacity is limited and imported ore supply is temporarily tightened [28]. - **Imported Bauxite**: In July 2025, the import volume of bauxite increased significantly. Guinea is the largest supplier. The price of Guinea's bauxite increased slightly in late August. The rainy season in Guinea and uncertainties in mine复产 have supported the ore price [31]. - **Alumina**: By the end of August, the built - in capacity and operating capacity of alumina increased. The domestic spot weighted index decreased. Newly - put - into - production capacities are gradually stabilizing. In September, although the output and inventory are increasing rapidly, the impact from the Guinea mine end will limit the downward space, and the price is expected to oscillate around the current level [34]. 3.4. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Production Capacity**: By the end of August, the built - in and operating capacities of electrolytic aluminum increased. The operating capacity is expected to increase steadily in September, but the incremental space within the year is limited [37]. - **Import**: In July 2025, the net import of domestic primary aluminum increased significantly. In September, due to the restart of US tariffs, the expansion of 232 tariffs, and the approaching domestic demand peak season, the import of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase [40]. - **Cost and Profit**: The main costs of electrolytic aluminum are electricity, alumina, and pre - baked anodes. In August, the production cost decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain stable in September [42]. 3.5. Downstream Demand for Aluminum - **Automobile**: In July 2025, automobile production and sales decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicles is high. In September, with the expansion of the trade - in policy and the peak production and sales season, the demand for aluminum in the automobile industry is expected to increase [50]. - **Real Estate**: From January to July 2025, real estate development investment, construction area, new - start area, completion area, and sales area all declined year - on - year, and the market is still weak despite policy efforts [53]. - **Infrastructure**: The issuance progress of new local special bonds in the first seven months is fast, and grid investment has increased significantly. In September, the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is expected to be strongly boosted [56]. - **Household Appliances**: In July 2025, the production and export of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showed different trends. In September, with the seasonal strength of production and sales and the expansion of the trade - in policy, the demand for aluminum in household appliances is expected to remain stable [59]. - **Photovoltaic**: In June 2025, the new - installed capacity of photovoltaic decreased significantly. After the end of the rush - installation period, the new - installed capacity is expected to remain low in September, and the demand for aluminum will also be low [62]. - **Aluminum Product Exports**: In July 2025, the net export of domestic aluminum products decreased year - on - year. In September, due to the restart of US tariffs and the full release of the US rush - import demand, aluminum product exports may decrease month - on - month [65]. 3.6. Inventory - The downstream negative feedback is obvious, and the overall inventory shows an accumulation trend [66]. 3.7. Aluminum Price Trend Outlook - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase steadily, and the import will supplement the domestic supply. The demand situation varies in different downstream industries. The cost is expected to remain stable. The aluminum price increase is mainly due to market expectations, and it is not recommended to chase the price unilaterally. Attention should be paid to inventory destocking [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Plastic - Supply - demand contradiction eases, with strong bottom support. The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional consumption season is coming, downstream demand shows signs of recovery, and supply pressure eases, but there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the LL main contract will fluctuate in the range of 7200 - 7500, and short - selling opportunities should be watched [8]. PP - There is significant trend pressure, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Although the supply side maintains high pressure, the downward space of the market is limited. It is expected that the PP main contract will fluctuate weakly, and the range of 6950 - 7300 should be watched [9]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On August 29, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7287 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63 yuan/ton or - 0.86%. The average price of LDPE was 9650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%; the average price of HDPE was 7982.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%; the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7591.18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.09%. The LLDPE South China basis was 304.18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 90.81%; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 68 yuan/ton (- 5), with the basis widening and the month spread narrowing [8][11]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil was at 64.01 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.35 US dollars/barrel from the previous month; Brent crude oil was at 67.46 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.32 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+30). The profit of oil - based PE was - 305 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton from the previous month; the profit of coal - based PE was 936 yuan/ton, a decrease of 206 yuan/ton from the previous month [8]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of polyethylene was 78.68%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points from the previous month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 61.78 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. The maintenance of petrochemical enterprise equipment remained at a high level, and the maintenance loss this week was 13.20 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons from the previous week [8][32]. - **Demand**: The overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 17.46%, an increase of 4.83% from the previous month; the PE packaging film start - up rate was 49.56%, an increase of 1.49% from the previous month; the PE pipe start - up rate was 30.17%, an increase of 1.34% from the previous month [8][39]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.20 tons, an increase of 0.36 tons or 0.64% from the end of last month [8]. Main Operating Logic - The traditional consumption season is coming, downstream demand recovers, and supply pressure eases. However, due to the large amount of production capacity to be put into operation in the second half of the year, there is still resistance to upward breakthrough. The short - term supply - demand contradiction eases, which strongly supports the market [8]. Key Points of Attention - Downstream demand, Fed rate cuts, Sino - US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [8]. PP Market Changes - On August 29, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6974 yuan/ton, a decrease of 144 yuan/ton from the previous month [9][53]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil was at 64.01 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.35 US dollars/barrel from the previous month; Brent crude oil was at 67.46 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.32 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+30). The profit of oil - based PP was - 327.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.90 yuan/ton from the previous month; the profit of coal - based PP was 364.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 212.60 yuan/ton from the previous month [9][70]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 80.00%, an increase of 3.06 percentage points from the previous month. The weekly output of PP pellets was 80.88 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.86%; the weekly output of PP powder was 7.39 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.29% [9][77]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate was 49.74% (+1.37). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 42.30% (-1.20), the start - up rate of BOPP was 60.40% (+0.40%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 57.44% (+1.64%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.37% (+0.20%) [9][83]. - **Inventory**: The domestic PP inventory was 53.85 tons (-5.91%); the inventory of two major oil companies decreased by 12.93% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 1.81% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 2.73% month - on - month [9][92]. Main Operating Logic - The weekly output of PP has increased again, and the supply side remains loose. Although downstream demand is still weak, there is an expectation of an increase in start - up due to the consumption season and low prices. The downward space of the market is limited [9]. Key Points of Attention - Downstream demand, Fed rate cuts, Sino - US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [9].

Report Overview - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report - Report Date: September 1, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Guodong - Industry: Precious Metals 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is emerging, and Powell's dovish remarks have increased market expectations of a September interest rate cut, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices [6][9][11]. - The results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries have been finalized, with the tariff increase generally lower than market expectations, raising optimistic expectations for a trade agreement between the US and Europe [11]. - The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week exceeded expectations, and Powell indicated that changing economic risks provide a stronger reason for the Fed to cut interest rates [11]. - US tariff policies are basically finalized, but the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, so precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is emerging, and Powell's dovish remarks have increased market expectations of a September interest rate cut, causing the prices of both US gold and silver to rebound [6][9]. - As of last Friday, US gold closed at $3516 per ounce, up 2.9% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3560, and the lower support level is $3450 [6]. - US silver had a weekly increase of 3.5%, closing at $40.8 per ounce. The lower support level is $38.9, and the upper resistance level is $41.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - Precious metal prices are expected to continue to rebound due to increased expectations of a September interest rate cut. The results of US trade negotiations have raised optimism about a US - Europe trade agreement [11]. - The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week exceeded expectations, and Powell said that economic risks give the Fed more reason to cut interest rates [11]. - US tariff policies are basically finalized, and the market's concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects are expected to support precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to the US August non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [11]. - Strategy suggestion: Buy on dips after the price correction. Refer to the operating range of 775 - 820 for the Shanghai Gold 10 contract and 9000 - 9800 for the Shanghai Silver 10 contract [13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar and pound - US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates, US Treasury yields, gold - silver ratio, yield spreads, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices [15][16][18]. 3.4 Current Week's Important Economic Data - US July PCE price index annual rate was 2.6%, in line with expectations and the previous value [28]. - US July personal spending monthly rate was 0.5%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.3% [28]. - The revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the US was 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3% [28]. - The revised annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the second quarter of the US was 2.5%, lower than the expected 2.6% and in line with the previous value [28]. 3.5 Current Week's Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies - Fed Governor Cook sued, claiming that President Trump has no right to remove her from office, which may reshape the long - established norms of the Fed's independence. European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn said that the weakening of the Fed's independence will lead to rising inflation [29]. - The US July personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month, slowing down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to a 1.7% decline in the cost of gasoline and other energy commodities. Year - on - year, it increased by 2.6%, the same as in June. The core PCE price index increased by 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and the year - on - year growth accelerated to 2.9%, the highest level since February [29]. 3.6 Inventory - This week, COMEX gold inventory increased by 11,260.73 kg to 1,210,730.26 kg, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 2,169 kg to 39,624 kg [13]. - This week, COMEX silver inventory increased by 303,116.99 kg to 16,118,840.21 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 86,873 kg to 1,195,996 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of August 26, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in gold was 209,730 contracts, an increase of 7,860 contracts from last week [13][37]. - As of August 26, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in silver was 43,930 contracts, an increase of 705 contracts from last week [13][37]. 3.8 This Week's Focus - On Tuesday (September 2), at 22:00, the US August ISM manufacturing PMI will be released [39]. - On Thursday (September 4), at 20:15, the change in the US August ADP employment number will be released [39]. - On Friday (September 5), at 20:30, the seasonally adjusted change in the US August non - farm payrolls and the US August unemployment rate will be released [39].

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **For the hog industry**: Near - term hog price rebounds are limited due to increased supply and high weights. Medium - and long - term prices will face pressure as sow inventory is abundant and production performance is improving, leading to increased supply before May next year [6][47][48]. - **For the egg industry**: Short - term egg price rebounds are suppressed by sufficient supply. In the long run, supply pressure remains, but the growth rate may slow down, and attention should be paid to the near - term culling situation [56][84][85]. - **For the corn industry**: In the short term, the connection between old and new crops and policy grain supply make corn supply sufficient, and the price may be under pressure. In the long term, the 25/26 corn production is expected to increase slightly, and the overall supply - demand is relatively stable, with the valuation under pressure [93][131]. Summary by Directory 1. Hog Industry Market Review - In August, the average national hog slaughter price was 13.54 yuan/kg, down 0.49 yuan/kg from the end of last month. The main 11 - contract price closed at 13,555 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan/ton (2.38% decline) from the end of last month. The 11 - contract basis was 95 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the end of last month [6]. Supply - Sow inventory is still at the upper limit of the equilibrium range, and production performance has improved, leading to an increase in new - born piglets. The supply of hogs in the third and fourth quarters will increase. As of August 29, the average monthly slaughter weight of national hogs was 127.86 kg, down 0.72 kg from last month [6][17][27]. Demand - In August, the daily average slaughter of key slaughtering enterprises was 116,895 heads, up 7.04% from last month and 25.09% year - on - year. The monthly fresh - sales rate dropped to 86.92%. In September, demand will gradually increase, but the increment is limited [31][32]. Cost - As of August 29, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of hogs was - 7.85 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 210.07 yuan/head. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising 5 - month - old fattened hogs was 12.83 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchasing piglets for 5 - month - old fattened hogs was 13.02 yuan/kg [6]. Policy - As of the week of August 22, the national hog - grain ratio was 5.89:1, breaking the 6:1 third - level warning value. On August 25, the central government started to purchase 10,000 tons of frozen pork for storage, and the market expects a total of 50,000 tons [44]. Strategy - For the 11 and 01 contracts, short positions can be rolled for profit - taking. Wait for the rebound to add short positions at pressure levels. Pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on 05 and shorting on 03 [6]. 2. Egg Industry Market Review - As of August 29, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.15 yuan/jin, and the main contract closed at 3,484 yuan/500 kg, down 359 yuan/500 kg from the end of July [56]. Supply - In August, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.365 billion, a year - on - year increase. In September, the number of newly - opened laying hens will remain high, and the culling of laying hens is expected to increase [56][73]. Demand - Affected by the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg demand is expected to increase in early September but will decline significantly in mid - to late September. Egg substitution consumption has support [32][56]. Strategy - For the 10 and 11 contracts, take a short - biased approach to rebounds. For the 12 and 01 contracts, wait and see first. If the near - term culling does not accelerate significantly, wait for the rebound to conduct hedging [56]. 3. Corn Industry Market Review - As of August 29, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,290 yuan/ton, and the main 2511 contract closed at 2,297 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton from the end of July [93]. Supply - In September, new corn in some areas of Northeast China will be listed, and together with policy grain, the supply will be sufficient. In July, corn imports were 60,000 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease [93]. Demand - Hog and poultry inventories are at a high level, driving feed demand. However, the substitution of wheat for corn has increased, and the demand for deep - processed corn is limited [93]. Strategy - For the 11 contract, wait for the rebound to short. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - aspect, Powell's dovish stance boosts market expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the easing of Sino - US trade frictions, along with the expected continuous release of domestic counter - cyclical policies and the recovery of the August manufacturing PMI, are expected to improve downstream demand. In the fundamental aspect, the tight supply of copper concentrates persists, and the processing fees remain at historical lows. Although refined copper production is high and imports are increasing, downstream inventory replenishment is cautious. With the transition from the off - season to the peak season, copper prices are expected to rise, and it is predicted that copper prices will be more likely to rise than fall in September [90][91]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In August, copper prices showed a strong trend with a monthly increase of 1.74%. Macro sentiment improved due to the easing of Sino - US trade frictions and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut. At the end of the month, copper prices returned to the fundamentals. The supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the spot processing fees were at historical lows. Domestic refined copper production remained high, and the terminal consumption market was in the off - season. The limited increase in domestic copper social inventory and the low - level inventory supported copper prices. There is still upward momentum for copper prices in September [5]. 3.2 Macro Factor Analysis 3.2.1 Overseas Macro - US inflation pressure in July was relatively mild. The non - farm payrolls in July dropped sharply, and the unemployment rate rose. The speech at the global central bank annual meeting increased the expectation of a rate cut in September. In August, the US manufacturing PMI expanded at the fastest pace in more than three years, and the US dollar index weakened, slightly boosting commodity prices [11][12]. 3.2.2 Domestic Macro - In July, China's CPI turned positive, and the core CPI's year - on - year increase continued to expand. The social financing scale growth remained stable, and local government special bond issuance increased significantly. In August, the manufacturing PMI improved, and the non - manufacturing PMI accelerated expansion, but the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline [19][21]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Mine - end Supply - From January to June, the global copper concentrate production was 11.44 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.32%. Although the increase in the first half of the year was lower than expected and there were occasional disturbances, the overall production remained stable. The copper mine production in Chile and Peru from January to May increased by 4.04% year - on - year [28]. 3.3.2 Smelting End - The supply of copper mines remained tight, and the smelting - mining contradiction continued. As of August 25, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) of copper concentrates was at a historical low of around - 41 dollars per ton. The domestic southern and imported CIF copper concentrate processing fees were also at historical lows [32]. 3.3.3 Refined Copper - In July, the copper production capacity utilization rate rebounded, and the electrolytic copper production increased year - on - year. In August, the price of smelting by - product sulfuric acid remained strong, which compensated for the smelting losses to some extent [35]. 3.3.4 Import and Export - In July, China's refined copper and unforged copper and copper products imports increased year - on - year. As of August 29, the electrolytic copper Shanghai - London ratio decreased, and the import loss narrowed [38]. 3.3.5 Scrap Copper - In July, domestic scrap copper imports decreased year - on - year. The spread between refined and scrap copper narrowed, and some scrap copper holders hoarded goods, and some regenerated copper rod enterprises stopped production [40]. 3.3.6 Processing Link - In July, the operating rates of refined copper rods and regenerated copper rods decreased. The operating rates of copper foil, copper tubes, copper strips, and copper rods showed different trends, with the copper foil operating rate rising and the others mostly falling [42][47]. 3.3.7 Terminal Demand - From January to July, power project investment increased steadily, and the installed capacity continued to grow, but the growth rate of new installed capacity in the second half of the year is expected to slow down. The real estate market is still at the bottoming stage, dragging down copper demand. In July, new energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly, and household appliance production growth showed resilience, which will continue to support copper demand [50][52][60][62]. 3.3.8 Inventory - As of August 29, domestic copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange and in the social market rebounded slightly but remained at historical lows. Global copper inventories continued to rise [69][70]. 3.3.9 Premium and Discount - In August, the domestic copper spot maintained a premium, and the LME copper spot/3 - month remained at a discount [74]. 3.3.10 Long and Short Positions in Domestic and Overseas Markets - As of August 29, the trading volume of Shanghai copper decreased, and the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions first decreased and then increased [76]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - Technically, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper has moved up, with a short - term operating range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan per ton, and there is a trend of upward breakthrough in the later stage [84]. 3.5 Outlook for the Future - In the macro - aspect, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut is increasing, and the domestic economic situation is improving, which is expected to boost downstream demand. In the fundamental aspect, the tight supply of copper concentrates persists, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season will bring upward momentum to copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will be more likely to rise than fall in September [90][91].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, hold a wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and go long on glass at low prices [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Moderately hold long positions in copper at low levels, go long on aluminum at low prices after a pullback, hold a wait - and - see attitude or go short on nickel at high prices, conduct range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][12][13][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC shows a weak oscillation, caustic soda and styrene oscillate, conduct an arbitrage of shorting 01 and going long on 05 for soda ash, rubber, urea, and methanol oscillate, and polyolefins show a wide - range oscillation [1][21][23][25] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn oscillate, apples show a strong - biased oscillation, and jujubes oscillate [1][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Go short on hogs and eggs at high prices, corn shows a wide - range oscillation, soybean meal shows a range oscillation, and oils show a strong - biased oscillation [1][38][40][42] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products in different industries. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic conditions, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and seasonal effects. For example, in the macro - finance sector, it considers the impact of central bank policies on stock indices and treasury bonds; in the commodity sectors, it analyzes the supply - demand changes in raw materials, production status, and market consumption trends [5][7][12]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - share markets rose on Friday. As the market approaches the 4000 - point key level, it may enter an upward - oscillation phase. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a strong - biased oscillation on Friday. With the end of the third quarter approaching, institutional behavior may cause significant market fluctuations. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: Coal prices continued to decline. After the rain stopped, production gradually resumed. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, and range trading is recommended [7][8] - **Rebar**: Futures prices dropped significantly last Friday. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak, but the demand may recover after August. It is expected that the price will first fall and then rise in September, and range trading is recommended [7][8] - **Glass**: The downstream demand may pick up in the short term. Considering the traditional peak season and positive macro - sentiment, it is recommended to go long at low prices [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is mainly affected by macro factors, showing a high - level oscillation. With the arrival of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase, and it is recommended to moderately hold long positions at low levels [12][13] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea has increased, and the downstream demand is entering the peak season. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to inventory performance [13] - **Nickel**: The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium to long term, and it is expected that the price will show a weak oscillation [18] - **Tin**: The supply improvement is limited, and the demand in the off - season is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the Fed's possible interest - rate cut and trade negotiations, the prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to go long at low prices after a pullback [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to show a weak oscillation in the short term [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is in a state of destocking, and the demand from alumina is good. There are still opportunities to go long at low prices in the peak season [23][24] - **Styrene**: The cost and demand are under pressure, and it is expected to show a weak oscillation [25][26] - **Rubber**: The inventory is decreasing, and the cost is supported. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is scattered. It is expected to be neutral in the short term [29] - **Methanol**: The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the demand from methanol - to - olefins is expected to increase. However, the port inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [30] - **Polyolefins**: With the arrival of the peak consumption season, the downstream demand is expected to be boosted. It is expected that the price will oscillate, and the L - to - PP spread is expected to widen [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is sluggish, and the 09 contract still faces large delivery pressure. It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage of shorting 01 and going long on 05 [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply - demand situation is improving, but the new - cotton output is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [36] - **Apples**: The prices of early - maturing apples are firm, and it is expected to maintain a strong - biased trend [36][37] - **Jujubes**: The Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage. It is expected that the spot price will remain stable in the short term [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to take profit on short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts and consider an arbitrage of going long on 05 and shorting 03 [38][40] - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient in the short term, and the price increase is limited. It is recommended to go short at high prices and pay attention to the elimination situation [40][41][42] - **Corn**: The supply is sufficient during the transition period between old and new crops. It is recommended to go short on the 11 - contract after a rebound and take profit on the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [42][43] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic arrival volume is sufficient from September to October, and the price is under pressure, but it is supported by costs. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the M2601 contract [44][45] - **Oils**: The domestic oil market lacks new positive news in the short term, and it is in a high - level adjustment phase. It is recommended to wait and see during the correction and then go long [46][48][52]

螺纹：价格先跌后涨 波段交易为主 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-09-01 【产业服务总部 | 黑色产业服务中心】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 9月观点：价格先跌后涨 波段交易为主 p 逻辑与策略 交易逻辑：8月反内卷预期有所降温，商品市场走势分化，黑色板块交易逻辑也重归基本面，整体呈现出钢材先走弱→原料跟跌 的状况，其中螺纹钢表现明显偏弱，市场在反应现实压力，8月份建材需求季节性下滑，螺纹钢库存增幅较大，目前库存已经超过去 年同期，而当下铁水产量依旧很高，在7月投资数据大幅下滑的背景下，市场对9、10月份的旺季需求期待不高，即使9月需求环比回 升，螺纹钢库存也很难顺畅去化，更多需要从供应端去发力，即钢厂减产去库，走所谓的负反馈路径。 如果9月弱需求逐步得到验证，钢价可能还有下行空间，当然空间会来自原料端的让利，也就是9月份原料价格的下行压力更大， 因为目前钢厂盘面利润已经偏低，螺纹期货价格已经跌至电炉谷电、长流程成本附近。当然9月也有不少利多因素，如美联储可能开 启降息、国内焦煤供给仍旧偏紧等。因此盘面可能先走负反 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea September 2025 Monthly Report: Supply-Demand Shift, Price Range May Widen [1] - Report Date: September 1, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Zhang Ying from the Energy and Chemical Industry Service Center of the Industrial Service Headquarters of Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of urea are both changing. The supply is expected to increase with capacity expansion and increased daily production in September, while demand will also gradually show an increasing trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm changes, and the price fluctuation range is expected to expand [41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Market Review - In August, the urea futures price oscillated, briefly surging before falling back. On August 29, the Urea 01 contract closed at 1,746 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the end of July. The spot price was firm but actual trading was weak. On August 29, the Henan market price was 1,727 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the end of July [5]. 3.2 Urea Capacity and Production Analysis - In August, the number of urea production device overhauls increased, and the operating rate first rose and then fell. By the end of the month, the operating rate was 81.73%, down 3.2 percentage points from the end of last month. The operating rate of natural gas - based urea continued to decline, reaching 71.8% at the end of the month, down 6.82 percentage points from the end of last month [9]. - In August, three new production capacities were put into operation, with a total of 200,000 tons from Shandong Jinkong Riyue New Materials Co., Ltd., 1 million tons from Xinjiang Xinji Energy Chemical Co., Ltd., and 800,000 tons from Anhui Jinmei Zhongneng Chemical Co., Ltd. From January to August 2025, the total new urea production capacity put into operation was about 4.4 million tons [9]. - In August, the daily average urea output was still higher than the historical value, ranging from a minimum of 189,800 tons to a maximum of 194,400 tons, and currently maintaining at the level of 190,000 - 200,000 tons. The estimated urea output in August was 6.0605 million tons, a decrease of 27,500 tons month - on - month and an increase of 829,500 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the estimated urea output was 48.154 million tons, an increase of nearly 5.68 million tons year - on - year, with a supply growth rate of 13.37% [12]. 3.3 Urea Cost and Profit Analysis - In August, the market price of anthracite first rose and then stabilized. The average monthly gross profit margin of coal - based urea was estimated to be 2.58%, a decrease of 5.68 percentage points month - on - month and 3.66 percentage points year - on - year. The estimated average monthly gross profit margin of gas - based urea in July was - 10.03%, a decrease of 1.97 percentage points month - on - month and 14.05 percentage points year - on - year [16]. 3.4 Urea Demand Analysis - From January to July 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was 41.455 million tons, an increase of about 4.428 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 11.96%. In August 2025, the urea production - sales ratio was maintained at 95.4% - 96.6%, at a relatively high level [19]. 3.5 Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - In 2024, the national grain sown area was 1.79 billion mu, an increase of 5.258 million mu from the previous year, a growth of 0.3%, and it has been increasing for five consecutive years. With the construction of high - standard farmland, the single - yield level of grain is expected to be effectively improved. The demand for summer fertilizers such as rice and corn is being released [21]. 3.6 Urea Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - In August, the operating rate of compound fertilizers first rose and then fell. The estimated output of compound fertilizers in August was 4.76 million tons, an increase of 1.48 million tons month - on - month and a decrease of 770,000 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the estimated output of compound fertilizers was 33.62 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.54%. In September, it is expected to gradually enter the peak sales season, and the probability of dealers' centralized pick - up will increase [27]. - In August, the average operating rate of melamine enterprises in China was 54.36%, a decrease of 7.06 percentage points from the previous month. The monthly output was 115,200 tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons from the previous month [30]. 3.7 Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to July 2025, the total fertilizer exports in China were 22.83 million tons, an increase of 7.156 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 45.65%. The export volume of mineral nitrogen fertilizers and chemical nitrogen fertilizers was 12.33 million tons, an increase of 3.767 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 43.99%. The urea export volume was 644,000 tons, an increase of 426,700 tons year - on - year [33]. 3.8 Urea Inventory Level Analysis - At the end of August, the urea enterprise inventory was 1.003 million tons, an increase of 246,000 tons from the beginning of the month, changing from destocking to inventory accumulation. At the end of August, the urea port inventory was 790,000 tons, an increase of 270,000 tons from the end of last month. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 6,473, equivalent to 129,460 tons of urea, an increase of 64,800 tons from the end of last month [35][38]. 3.9 Urea Market Outlook - Supply: There is still an expectation of continuous urea capacity release. The concentrated overhaul period of coal - based urea devices has passed. Although the overall operating rate of gas - based devices is lower than in previous years, the overall urea supply may maintain a year - on - year growth rate of 8 - 12%, and the daily average urea output will maintain at the level of 190,000 - 200,000 tons. - Demand: (1) Agricultural demand: The concentrated fertilization period for summer harvest and sowing is over, and other agricultural fertilization is sporadic. (2) Industrial demand: Compound fertilizers are in the pre - sale stage of autumn fertilizers. As the pre - sale progresses, the operating rate of fertilizer enterprises will gradually increase in the second half of the month, and the production of autumn fertilizers will start. In September, it is the traditional sales stage of compound fertilizers. In the middle and late ten days, the pick - up volume of dealers will increase, and the production of fertilizer enterprises will also increase simultaneously. The industrial demand for melamine, urea - formaldehyde resin, desulfurization and denitrification will fluctuate slightly. (3) Export demand: The urea export volume in July was lower than expected, while the urea port inventory exceeded the previous export peak level. It is expected that the export volume will be concentrated in August - September. - Market outlook: Recently, the number of urea device overhauls has decreased, and the supply has recovered month - on - month, with the daily output running at 190,000 - 200,000 tons. The agricultural fertilization demand is sporadic. After the continuous increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, it began to decline. The peak operating rate of compound fertilizers is lower than in previous years. It is expected that the progress of compound fertilizers this year will be delayed, and other industrial demand will remain stable. The downstream of urea continues to hold a wait - and - see attitude, and the limited actual transactions have led to continuous inventory accumulation of enterprises. In September, with capacity release and expected increase in daily output, the demand will also gradually show an increasing trend. Both supply and demand are changing, and attention should be paid to the rhythm changes. It is expected that the price fluctuation range may expand. Key points to focus on include urea capacity release, urea device production cuts and overhauls, compound fertilizer operating rate, export policies, coal prices, and the macro - environment [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market may experience a phased recovery in demand in September, and the market is expected to rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips for the glass futures in September, consider out - of - the - money options for near - month contracts, and focus on the breakthrough situation of the 1150 - 1200 range for the main 01 contract [2][85]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Performance**: In August, glass futures declined smoothly. The real - world demand was poor, the mid - stream inventory of futures and spot was at a high level, and some 08 warehouse receipts were re - sold, resulting in greater delivery pressure for the 09 contract and the main reason for the decline of the August futures [2][85]. - **Spot Prices**: As of August 29, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,140 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,090 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,200 yuan/ton in East China (+10). The glass 09 contract closed at 1,182 yuan/ton last Friday, up 281 yuan from the previous week [13][14]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of August 29, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 142 yuan/ton (- 11), and the 01 - 05 spread was - 92 yuan/ton (+4). The difference between soda ash and glass futures prices was 114 yuan/ton (- 39) [15][19]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Pattern - **Profit**: The profit of glass production using different processes is close to the break - even point. The cost of natural - gas - based process is 1,580 yuan/ton (- 6), with a gross profit of - 380 yuan/ton (+16); the cost of coal - gas - based process is 1,156 yuan/ton (- 11), with a gross profit of - 16 yuan/ton (+11); the cost of petroleum - coke - based process is 1,094 yuan/ton (- 6), with a gross profit of - 4 yuan/ton (+6) [22][25]. - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass was 158,855 tons per day last Friday (+500), and there were 224 production lines in operation. The subsequent adjustment of production lines is not expected to be significant [26][27]. - **Inventory**: The national glass manufacturers' inventory decreased slightly. The inventory in Central China decreased significantly due to increased replenishment demand from the mid - and downstream, while the inventory in North China increased slightly as the replenishment rhythm of surrounding processing plants slowed down [2][85]. - **Deep - processing**: On August 29, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 96% (unchanged), the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (unchanged), and the available order days for glass deep - processing in mid - August were 9.65 days (+0.1) [37]. - **Demand - Automobile**: In July, China's automobile production was 2.591 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 203,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 305,000 vehicles; sales were 2.593 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 311,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 331,000 vehicles. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 987,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 54% [48]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: In July, China's real - estate completion area was 24.6739 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 29%; new construction area was 48.4168 million square meters (- 15%); construction area was 54.0957 million square meters (- 16%); and commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters (- 8%). From August 23 to August 29, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.48 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18% and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The real - estate development investment in July was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [49][55]. - **Import and Export**: As of June, China's float glass imports were 521,000 weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 79%), and exports were 1.9204 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 161%) [57]. - **Cost - Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash increased significantly. The inventory of soda ash in factories decreased, and the production decreased. The apparent consumption of heavy soda ash improved, and the production - sales ratio increased [59][82]. 3.3 Investment Strategy - **Main Logic**: The glass futures declined in August due to poor demand and high inventory. The subsequent demand may have a phased recovery, considering the traditional peak season and positive macro - sentiment, so the market is expected to rebound. The forces of both long and short sides of the 01 contract have increased [2][85]. - **Operation Strategy**: Buy on dips for the glass futures in September. Consider out - of - the money options for near - month contracts and focus on the breakthrough situation of the 1150 - 1200 range for the main 01 contract [2][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is expected to move in a volatile and moderately strong manner [3] Core Viewpoints - Apple futures were generally strong in August, seeking to break through the resistance level of 8,500 yuan/ton; jujube prices showed a volatile upward trend [6][7] - The downstream consumption is slowly recovering, but the price level is under significant pressure; fruit prices were high in the early stage and low in the later stage [11][15][18] - The prices of early-maturing apples are strong, which will drive up the prices of new Red Fuji apples and futures prices; new-year apple production is expected to change little [41] - Jujube prices are expected to remain strong, with high-level volatile and moderately strong trends [58] Summary by Directory 1. 8 - Month Fresh Fruit Price Trend - Apple futures were generally strong in August, attempting to break through the 8,500 yuan/ton resistance level [6] - Jujube prices showed a volatile upward trend in August, strong in the early stage and adjusted in the later stage, but still generally strong [7] 2. Macro - Analysis - **Downstream Consumption Slow Recovery**: In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; from January to July, the cumulative total was 28.42 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. By consumption type, the combined retail sales of goods and services from January to July increased by about 5% year - on - year; in July, the retail sales of goods increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and catering revenue increased by 1.1% year - on - year [14] - **High Price Pressure**: In July 2025, the national CPI was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. Food prices decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, with fresh vegetable prices down 7.6% and fresh fruit prices up 2.8% year - on - year [17] - **Fluctuating Fruit Prices**: As of the 31st week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.05 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg from the 29th week. Compared with the first half of 2024, fruit prices rose in the second quarter but have been weakening since July [20] 3. Apple Price Outlook - **Wholesale Market Price**: As of August 22, 2025, the wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.74 yuan/kg, a 0.02 yuan/kg increase from the previous month; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.50 yuan/kg, a 0.22 yuan/kg decrease from the previous month [24] - **Main Producing Areas**: In Shandong, prices vary by variety and grade; in Shaanxi, the prices of paper - bagged Gala apples also vary by quality [29] - **Cold Storage Situation**: As of August 20, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 39.45 tons, a decrease of 6.56 tons from the previous week. The arrival of early - maturing apples affected the inventory clearance speed [31] - **Sales Area Market**: In the South China market, the number of trucks arriving at the market increased slightly. The market is still dominated by Fuji apples, with early - maturing Gala apples increasing in volume. The sales speed of high - quality goods is acceptable, while that of low - quality goods is slow [35] - **Storage Profit**: The profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week [37] - **Market Outlook**: The early - maturing paper - bagged Gala apples in Shaanxi are in the middle and late stages, with a small proportion of high - quality goods and polarized prices. The prices of early - maturing apples are strong, which will drive up the prices of new Red Fuji apples and futures prices. New - year production is expected to change little [41] 4. Jujube Outlook - **Spot Price**: Prices vary in different markets such as Hebei, Henan, and Guangzhou, depending on the grade and quality of jujubes [47] - **Inventory Data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9,456 tons, a decrease of 63 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 74.95%. The jujube market is currently in a weak equilibrium of "tight supply but weak demand" [49] - **Sales Area Profit Analysis**: The average purchase price of gray jujubes in Xinjiang's main producing areas is 5.33 yuan/kg, and the price of first - grade finished products in Hebei's sales area is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg. The gross profit is about 2.54 yuan/kg [54] - **Market Outlook**: Jujube farmers have high expectations for the new - season purchase. The inventory holders have different mentalities, and the market supply of finished products is limited. Jujube prices are expected to be high - level volatile and moderately strong [58]