【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 主要品种观点综述 宏观因素交织 有色金属整体震荡 有色金属基础周报 2025-04-21 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | | | 特朗普政府关税立场的调整对于铜价不利影响有所减弱，而在美国232条款铜关税调查中，力拓、托克集团等美国铜行业的主要参与者呼吁限制铜 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 矿石和废铜的出口，而不是对进口征收关税，以此推动国内铜生产。美国是中国最大废铜供应国（年出口约60万吨），这一举措若实施将再次冲 | | | | 反弹后偏强震荡 | 击全球贸易格局，推高全球铜价。基本面上，铜精矿TC跌破-30美元/吨，创近年新低，但受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出依然维持高位，3月精 | | | 铜 | 74500-78500 | 炼铜产量为124.8万吨，同比增加8. ...

长江期货PTA产业周报 产业供需尚可，短期低位震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-04-21 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 行情回顾： 1 01 上周回顾——短期供需尚可，市场低位震荡 PX：上周PX价格低位反弹。一方面成本端原油价格支撑走强。另一方面PX供应端继续减产，周度产量减少， 社会库存缓降，PXN略有回升，总体而言较前一周基本略有好转，在春检时期，短期市场价格反弹。 PTA：上周PTA价格低位回升。成本端国际油价支撑化工品反弹；供应装置方面，恒力惠州与恒力大连按计划 检修，PTA开工下降，下游聚酯负荷小幅降低，综合供需PTA去库延续，总体供需好于前一周，价格反弹。 乙二醇：上周乙二醇价格先涨后跌，期初受进口美国原料影响，乙二醇价格低位反弹，但随着中美关税政策影 响，市场评估乙二醇供应缺口尚可，价格终端市场低迷，聚酯消费下降，好在原油价 ...

长江期货棉纺产业周报 中美博弈震动 短期震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-04-21 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 01 周度观点 整体观点：国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放，大约释放60%，未点价40%，资源集 中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资源相对充裕，外 盘相对弱些，外盘CFTC持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5万多万多手，22.68吨/手），产业是净多头（5万多手），未点价， 想接货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双方会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消 费难以有增量，造成内卷，利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。特朗普松口，欲将对中国减税，说一个月内达成协议，短期有 震动变化，继续观望。到了下半年，我们要面对几个变数，一是新疆喀什等地区开发 ...

长江期货白糖周报 市场回归基本面，维持震荡整理格局 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-4-21 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 01 白糖周度观点 3 风险因素： 国内市场消费情况；国际市场贸易流情况；国内外宏观政策出台； 1 整体观点：国际糖市，北半球主产区产量已成定局，受巴西库存偏低，印度2024/25榨季累计产糖 预计同比减少影响，市场短期贸易流偏紧，支撑ICE糖价。近期巴西中南部2025/26榨季开启生产， 制糖比同比增加位于高位水平，阶段性生产数据令市场承压，但当前巴西库存处于低位，中南部 产糖未集中上量，后期重点关注巴西天气状况及开榨进度情况。国内方面，广西蔗区苗情干旱， 加之目前国产糖进入纯销期，产区3月产销数据进度或同比加快，工业库存同比有所下降，对糖价 形成一定支撑。但后期糖浆、含糖预混粉进口量或有望大幅增加，食糖远期进口利润窗口打 ...

长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-04-21 01 尿素：夏季肥采购临近 短期或偏强震荡 02 甲醇：内地港口库存双增 延续区间震荡 目 录 01 核心观点总结 02 尿素：夏季肥采购临近 短期或偏强震荡 01 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 1 市场变化：上周尿素厂家新收订单减少，报价大幅下调，后成交有所回升，整体市场先弱后稳 。4月18日尿素 2509合约收盘价1773元/吨，较上周下调48元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1836元/吨，较上周下调58元/吨，山 东市场日均价1853元/吨，较上周下调50元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端尿素开工负荷率84.81%，较上周降低0.88个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率69.13%，较上 周上调1.03个百分点，尿素日均产量小幅回落至19.29万吨。成本端无烟煤市场交投不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish outlook for the plastics industry [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future outlook for plastics is weak, with a cautious and bearish stance. The plastics 2509 contract closed at 7,143 yuan/ton on April 18, down 109 yuan/ton from the previous week. Spot prices of plastics declined across the board. In the second quarter, the domestic PE market is expected to face significant supply pressure due to planned new capacity of 2.15 million tons. Downstream demand is generally weak, with a sharp decline in the agricultural film sector as the peak season ends, and mediocre demand in the packaging film and pipe sectors. Inventory remains neutral, with no obvious de - stocking trend and low willingness among downstream players to replenish inventory at low prices. However, tariffs may provide some support to market prices. It is expected that the plastics 2505 contract will fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic Weekly Market Review - On April 18, the plastics 2509 contract closed at 7,143 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton from the previous week. The market fluctuated at the bottom this week, and the trade war brought great uncertainty, intensifying market fluctuations. LLDPE's South China basis reached 694.65 yuan/ton, a 15.71% increase from the previous week, and the May - September spread was 168 yuan/ton (up 69). Spot prices of plastics declined across the board, with the LDPE average price at 9,166.67 yuan/ton, a 1.08% decrease from the previous week, the HDPE average price at 8,140.00 yuan/ton, a 0.88% decrease, and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China at 7,837.65 yuan/ton, a 0.19% decrease [4][8] 3.2 Key Data Tracking - Month Spread | Month Spread | April 18, 2025 (yuan/ton) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 - 5 | -230 | -48 | | 5 - 9 | 168 | 69 | | 9 - 1 | 62 | -21 | [15] 3.3 Key Data Tracking - Spot Price - Spot prices of various plastics products showed different degrees of decline. For example, the LDPE average price decreased by 1.08%, the HDPE average price decreased by 0.88%, and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China decreased by 0.19%. Specific prices and changes in different regions and product categories are detailed in the report [4][8][16] 3.4 Key Data Tracking - Cost - This week, WTI crude oil closed at $63.75 per barrel, up $2.27 from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $67.85 per barrel, up $3.26 from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,020 yuan/ton (down 20). It is expected that the crude oil market will maintain a low - level fluctuating trend, and the coal market price has slightly increased [19] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Profit - The profit of oil - based PE was - 33 yuan/ton, down 249 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 1,237 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous week. It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE and coal - based PE will run weakly [22] 3.6 Key Data Tracking - Supply - This week, the operating rate of China's polyethylene production was 83.81%, up 0.17 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly polyethylene output was 633,500 tons, a 0.88% increase from the previous week. The maintenance loss this week was 91,900 tons, down 3,900 tons from the previous week. Some enterprises' devices are under maintenance, and there are many planned new capacity projects in 2025 [25][27] 3.7 Key Data Tracking - 2025 Production Plan - Many enterprises have new production capacity plans in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 5.43 million tons. Some projects have already started production, some are in the process of starting up, and others are scheduled to start at different times throughout the year [27] 3.8 Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics - Several enterprises carried out device maintenance this week, such as Baolai LyondellBasell's HDPE device from April 14 to April 20, and Daqing Petrochemical's LLDPE device which stopped on April 16 with an undetermined restart time [28] 3.9 Key Data Tracking - Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 30.09%, down 7.45% from the previous week; the operating rate of PE packaging film was 47.56%, down 0.51% from the previous week; and the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.50%, down 0.17% from the previous week. The peak season of agricultural film is coming to an end, with an expected further decline, and the operating performance of packaging film and pipes is mediocre due to weak downstream demand [29] 3.10 Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio - Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 36.1%, which is 2% different from the annual average level. The ratio of low - pressure pipes shows a significant difference from the annual average data, currently accounting for 6%, a 4.2% difference from the annual average [34] 3.11 Key Data Tracking - Inventory - This week, the social inventory of plastics enterprises was 616,000 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [36] 3.12 Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts - This week, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 1,565 lots, an increase of 939 lots from the previous week [44]

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-4-21 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员：洪润霞 执业编号: F0260331 投资咨询号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号: F0270997 投资咨询号:Z0002826 联系人：钟 舟 执业编号: F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号: F3033495 震荡偏弱 01 周度观点 长江期货纸浆产业周报 02 行情回顾 数据来源：博易大师、IFIND、长江期货 1 整体观点：近期海外纸浆持续到港，市场木浆供应相对充足。中国木浆进口依存度高，据海关总署数据，美国、加拿 大、芬兰是中国进口针叶浆主要贸易伙伴，因此后市中美贸易关税调整对针叶浆影响较为明显。当前下游原纸行业相 对淡季，季节性规律下，市场需求放量相对有限，浆价上行动能欠佳，现货市场仍维持低成交量运行。而市场对高价 木浆接受度不高，企业原料询单心态谨慎，牵制浆价难有上行预期。库存量呈现累库走势，主港库存连续四周去库后， 转为小幅累库的走势，整体库存数量变动不大。近期宏观市场波动较大，且下游需求较弱，虽然有外盘挺价，预期价 格难以坚挺，预计继续震荡偏弱。 2 风险因素：市场消 ...

长江期货苹果产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-4-21 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员：洪润霞 执业编号: F0260331 投资咨询号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号: F0270997 投资咨询号:Z0002826 联系人：钟 舟 执业编号: F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号: F3033495 高位震荡 01 周度观点 1 整体观点：本周继续处于传统销售旺季，冷库走货速度有所加快，客商返回产区补货积极性较高，各类货源交易活跃。 从库存情况看，库存余量降至五年低位，西部客商货成交顺畅，库内包装发货较多。山东低价货源成交增多，好货少 量交易。从价格方面看，周内苹果价格稳中偏强，个别产区价格较前小幅上涨。从销区情况看，目前市场到车稳定， 整体走货尚可。各产区新季苹果陆续进入花期，西部整体花量表现充足。当前苹果交割博弈加剧，盘面波动加大，短 期来看预计近月期现货价格偏乐观看待，但新季苹果价格难料。 2 风险因素：市场消费情况、宏观政策因素 02 行情回顾 Ø 本周苹果主力剧烈震荡运行。 Ø 苹果基差167元，较上周-113。 数据来源：博易大师、IFI ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 17 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 0.3%至 75780 元/吨。美国 对等关税政策超预期，中国随之全面反制，美挑起的关税战加大了全球 经济衰退的概率，各类资产遭受无差别抛售，重要大宗商品价格短期重 挫。随着中美关税已加无可加，边际影响减弱以及特朗普政策的反复， 铜价大幅反弹。基本面上，价格回落，下游企业逢低补库积极，订单增 长明显，国内库存下降表现较为明显。铜精矿供应也依旧紧张，现货 TC 继续在负值区间下探，再生铜采购难度也在加大，但副产品价格高位， 国内产出的预期依然较高。不过卫星监测数据显示，3 月全球铜冶炼活 动大幅下降，平均有 12.6%的产能处于闲置状态，高于 2 月的 8.8%。 其中，中国冶炼厂的闲置率上升 4.5 个百分点达到 9.6%。4 月供应或有 一定收缩。随着关税问题的持续影响，后续出口有减少趋势。整体上此 前国内供应偏紧的预期或有所转变。铜长期的需求逻辑仍在，炼厂仍面 临较大的原料保供和保本压力，短期基本面仍有韧性。但关税的中长期 影响将拉低铜市场需求，铜价重心或有下移可能。关税战持续，宏观因 素仍不断带来影响，沪铜维持宽幅偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report gives a "short - term bullish" rating for treasury bonds and suggests that stock indices will "oscillate" [2][3] 2. Core Views - **Stock Indices**: Tariff threats drag down the economic outlook, and the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Although the short - term fundamentals are okay, considering the pressure from the weakening export - chain production and sales, policies may be advanced. Stock indices may oscillate. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale statements and stances to boost market sentiment will be issued after visits to ASEAN countries [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a situation where long - term positives conflict with the lack of further short - term positives. The selling pressure in the short - term market increases, and it's hard to predict when the current bond market pattern will be broken. Attention should be paid to relative value opportunities in bond types and yield curves [2] 3. Market Review - **Stock Indices**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.90%, SSE 50 rose 0.82%, CSI 500 rose 0.47%, and CSI 1000 rose 1.06% [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.15%, 0.14%, 0.49%, and 0.08% respectively [6] 4. Technical Analysis - **Stock Indices**: The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market oscillates with a slight upward bias [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract oscillates with a slight upward bias [7] 5. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/17 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3710.60 | 0.90 | 55799 | 141593 | | 2025/04/17 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2633.60 | 0.82 | 28211 | 44853 | | 2025/04/17 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5551.20 | 0.47 | 34523 | 21987 | | 2025/04/17 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5653.80 | 1.06 | 156019 | 168300 | | 2025/04/17 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.99 | - 0.15 | 62639 | 193114 | | 2025/04/17 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.25 | - 0.14 | 47316 | 171023 | | 2025/04/17 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.44 | - 0.49 | 93722 | 106359 | | 2025/04/17 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.49 | - 0.08 | 31161 | 112255 | [9] 6. Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends, price - to - earnings ratios, trading volumes, open interests, basis rates, and inter - delivery spreads of stock index futures and treasury bond futures, with data sources from iFinD and the research and consulting department of Yangtze River Futures [10][14][17]