Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals still support copper prices, and Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a volatile pattern before the holiday [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as inventory changes and export incentives [2]. - Nickel is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - to - long term due to supply surplus, although cost support limits the downside [3][4]. - Tin prices are expected to have greater volatility, and range trading is recommended, with attention to supply and demand changes [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basic Metals Copper - As of May 26, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract rose 0.57% to 78,270 yuan/ton. Macro disturbances are weakening, but Sino - US trade uncertainties remain. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the cost pressure of smelters limits price decline. Consumption in May weakened compared to April but is better than the same period. Social inventory is at a low level, and there may be some restocking sentiment before the Dragon Boat Festival [1]. Aluminum - As of May 26, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.05% to 20,155 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. Alumina operating capacity is expected to gradually recover, and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is increasing. The downstream开工率 is declining, but aluminum inventory has been unexpectedly depleted, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. Nickel - As of May 26, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.08% to 122,780 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the downstream nickel - iron industry has losses. The pure nickel is in surplus, and stainless steel demand is average. The cost of nickel is firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [3][4]. Tin - As of May 26, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract fell 0.24% to 264,050 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and prices are oscillating. Production and imports have increased, and the semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are strong expectations of mine - end resumption. Prices are expected to fluctuate more, and range trading is recommended [5]. 2. Spot Transaction Summary Copper - Domestic spot copper prices rose. Due to limited restocking demand before the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream procurement was cautious, and only low - priced goods were purchased, with a slight increase in premiums [6]. Aluminum - The spot aluminum market was stable with a slight upward trend. Tight arrivals and inventory depletion supported sellers' price - holding sentiment, but some sellers increased shipments, and overall trading remained active [7]. Other Metals - For zinc, the spot market trading was mediocre, with high premiums due to pre - holiday restocking. For lead, the spot market trading was light. For nickel, the spot market trading was light due to the weekly effect. For tin, the spot market trading was average, and merchants were mainly in a wait - and - see mode [9][11][12][13]. 3. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, while lead futures warehouse receipts increased, and zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. LME copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, and tin inventory remained unchanged [15].

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3140 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 40 元/吨，10 合约基差 136（+2）。基本面方面，上周螺纹 钢表需回落、产量回升，库存去化速度放缓，需求即将季节性走弱，而当 下钢厂利润尚好，主动减产意愿不足，供需矛盾将会逐步显现。后市而 言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格已经低于长流程成本，静态估值处 于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规 模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但需求即将环比转 弱，短期在低估值背景下，预计价格震荡偏弱运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周一，铁矿石盘面震荡偏弱，主要受宏观情绪和煤炭阴跌影响。现货方 面，青岛港 PB 粉 740 元/湿吨（-13）。普氏 62%指数 97.65 美元/吨 （-1.30），月均 99.69 美元/吨。PBF 基差 75 元/吨（-3）。供给端： 最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,729.10 万吨，环+23。45 港口+247 钢厂 总库存 22,913.31 万吨，环-213.94。247 家钢企铁水日产 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: After Trump postponed 50% of the tariffs, the EU stated that the EU - US trade negotiations had "new impetus" and planned to "advance rapidly." Japan planned to use LNG projects and shipbuilding technology to seek tariff concessions from the US, aiming to reach an agreement by mid - June. ECB President Lagarde said the euro could become an alternative to the US dollar. Domestically, the market rotation was fast, the main driving force was weak, and trading volume was insufficient, so the stock index might fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since early May, factors such as the profit - taking after the "dual cuts," the bond market's risk - aversion sentiment due to the 90 - day tariff suspension, concerns about "deposit migration" after the deposit rate cut, and worries about bond issuance supply had a bearish impact on the bond market. Current bond market investors were generally cautious, and the view of "bullish but not buying" limited the depth of market adjustment to some extent and provided the probability and odds for subsequent trading [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.61%, that of SSE 50 fell 0.46%, that of CSI 500 rose 0.33%, and that of CSI 1000 rose 0.69% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.00%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index suggested a weak trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract showed a fluctuating and strong trend [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3,831.20 | - 0.61 | 62,863 | 138,782 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,684.40 | - 0.46 | 34,244 | 51,685 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5,594.60 | 0.33 | 56,454 | 110,791 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5,925.00 | 0.49 | 133,893 | 181,503 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.855 | 0.00 | 52,310 | 166,526 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.060 | 0.01 | 48,389 | 125,742 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.760 | 0.13 | 58,787 | 91,927 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.430 | 0.03 | 31,127 | 102,629 | [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Defensive Observation [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short - term, expected to fluctuate upwards [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Temporarily Observation, expected to fluctuate [7] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Expected to fluctuate [1][9] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautious trading within a range [1][12] - **Aluminum**: Observation [1][13] - **Nickel**: Observation or shorting on rallies [1][15] - **Tin**: Trading within a range [1][17] - **Gold**: Building long positions on dips after full price corrections [1][19] - **Silver**: Trading within a range [1][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, focus on the 5000 level pressure [1][21] - **Soda Ash**: Observation, expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, temporarily focus on the 2550 level pressure [1][23] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, focus on the 15300 level pressure [1][25] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][28] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate widely, reference range 2200 - 2380 [1][29] - **Plastic**: Expected to fluctuate widely, reference range 6950 - 7350 [1][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to rebound with fluctuations [1][35] - **Apple**: Expected to fluctuate [1][35] - **PTA**: Trading within the range of 4650 - 4900 [1][36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][39] - **Eggs**: Shorting on rallies [1][40] - **Corn**: Trading within the range of 2300 - 2360, long on dips at the lower end of the range [1][41] - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term trading within the range of 2860 - 3000, long on dips after mid - June [1][43] - **Oils and Fats**: Shorting on rallies with caution [1][43] 2. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products. It analyzes the impact of multiple factors such as macro - economy, policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade on different futures markets. For most products, the market shows a trend of fluctuation, and the investment strategies mainly include observation, trading within a range, and short - term or long - term trading based on price levels and market trends [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Due to factors like domestic market rotation, weak main - line driving force, and insufficient trading volume, the stock index may fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a defensive observation stance [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the previous negative factors reached a peak, the bond market began to recover. Although investors are still cautious, it is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short - term [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: With falling apparent demand, rising production, and slowing inventory depletion, and considering low valuation and weakening demand, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by macro - sentiment and coal price decline, although there are factors such as potential production increase of Australian mines and decreasing inventory, the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe [7][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both coking coal and coke face supply - demand contradictions. Coking coal is affected by production restrictions, inventory accumulation, and weak demand; coke is affected by reduced demand from steel mills and price cuts. They are expected to fluctuate [9][10][11]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Despite weakening support from fundamentals, the copper price is still expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to factors such as mine - end interference, supply - demand situation, and inventory levels. It is recommended to trade cautiously within a range [12]. - **Aluminum**: With the change in the situation of Guinea's mining licenses, the price of alumina has risen. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand may weaken. It is recommended to observe [13][14]. - **Nickel**: Although the cost is firm, there is a long - term supply surplus. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15][16]. - **Tin**: With factors such as changes in production and consumption, and the impact of tariff policies, the price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, Fed policies, and inflation data, the prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high inventory, weak demand, and the impact of tariffs, although the short - term tariff situation has improved, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to macro - news [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: In June, there may be a situation of weak supply and demand. The medium - term supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand growth is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [25]. - **Rubber**: With slow raw material supply increase in the short - term and weak downstream demand, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - **Urea**: With high supply, weak agricultural and industrial demand, and increasing inventory, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [28]. - **Methanol**: With relatively abundant supply and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors such as macro - changes and device maintenance [29][30]. - **Plastic**: With reduced supply due to maintenance and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and other factors [31][32]. - **Soda Ash**: Although the spot price is firm, the futures price is under pressure due to insufficient expected maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: Although the global supply - demand is still loose, due to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the cotton price is expected to rebound with fluctuations [35]. - **Apple**: With stable market transactions and clear fruit - setting and bagging situations, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [35][36]. - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of supply - demand fundamentals, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to fluctuate within a range [36][37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, due to the game between supply and demand, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, due to the increase in supply, the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies at resistance levels [39]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is supported by the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, but the supply is large, and the price is under pressure. In different periods, different investment strategies are recommended [40]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the price is supported by reduced grassroots grain sources. In the long - term, although the supply - demand is tightening, the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to trade within a range and long on dips [41]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, due to factors such as sufficient supply, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, due to cost increase and weather factors, it is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to trade within a range and long on dips after mid - June [43]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate due to the game of multiple factors. In the long - term, it is expected to decline first and then rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies with caution [43][48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is under pressure. The current supply of cotton in China is tight, but new cotton in the new year is expected to be abundant, limiting the upside. The future cotton price is affected by the macro - situation, and it is advisable to hedge at the high point of the rebound this year [1]. - PTA is under pressure. With the digestion of macro - benefits, weakening supply - demand expectations, and low buying interest from downstream enterprises, the short - term domestic PTA market may continue to be under pressure [2][3]. - Ethylene glycol moves in a range. Although the cost side has declined and the supply - demand pattern is favorable, the price may correct due to the rapid short - term increase [3]. - Short - fiber moves in a range. The price rebounds due to raw material and supply factors, but considering the off - season and upstream device restart, the price is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [3]. - Sugar shows a weak oscillation. Internationally, Brazil has a production increase expectation; domestically, factors are mixed, and the sugar price is under pressure [4]. - Apples fluctuate at a high level. The inventory trading is stable, and with low inventory, the price is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound movement [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - As of the end of April, the commercial inventory was 415 million tons, and the industrial inventory was 95 million tons. By the end of August, the commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, tighter than in 2023. New cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be 7.5 billion tons. The short - and medium - term upside is limited, affected by international negotiations. The future price depends on negotiation results [1]. - On May 26, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,606 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the棉纱 index was 20,500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. On May 26, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts were 11,691 (+5) sheets [8]. - In April, Argentina exported 3,209 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 9.1% month - on - month and 71% year - on - year. From August 2024 to July 2025, the cumulative export was about 74,000 tons, a decrease of 6.7% year - on - year [8]. - As of May 20, the non - commercial net long positions in ICE cotton futures and options decreased by 12,920; the non - commercial net long positions in futures alone decreased by 11,613; the commodity index fund net long positions increased by 22 [8]. PTA - As of the 20th, the PTA spot price was 4,855 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The polyester production cut dragged down sentiment, and the absolute price decreased. The capacity utilization rate rose to 78.38% due to the restart of Sichuan Energy Investment's device, and the downstream polyester industry capacity utilization rate was 89.98%, a decrease of 0.42% from last Friday. The comprehensive supply - demand de - stocking slowed down, and the polyester production and sales rate was 34.1%, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous trading day [2][3]. - As of May 22, the average PTA processing interval was 400.19 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.33%. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate reached 77.22%, a month - on - month increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [9]. Ethylene Glycol - The cost side has declined due to the drop in international oil prices. Domestic maintenance has increased significantly, and imports are at a low level. The demand side maintains a high operating rate, but the price may correct [3]. - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 55.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.66%. The weekly output was 332,900 tons, a decrease of 9.28% from last week [14]. Short - fiber - The price rebounds due to rising raw materials and reduced supply, but the support from crude oil weakens, and downstream orders are not improving significantly. Considering the off - season and upstream device restart, the price is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [3]. - As of the 8th, the domestic short - fiber weekly output was 161,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%. The average polymerization cost was 5,728 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%, and the industry cash flow was - 307 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 86.41% [11]. Sugar - Internationally, Brazil's sugar production in April decreased year - on - year, but there is a production increase expectation. Domestically, factors are mixed, with both supportive and pressure factors [4]. - The USDA expects the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season to increase by 8.6 million tons to 189.3 million tons. The domestic sugar sales quota in May 2025 was 2.35 million tons, the same as last month and down 350,000 tons year - on - year. The 2024/25 sugar - making season in Yunnan ended, and the output is expected to reach a record high of about 2.4 million tons [10][12]. Apples - The inventory trading is stable, with different situations in different regions. The sales in the sales area are okay, and with low inventory, the price is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound movement [5]. - As of May 21, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 1.7085 million tons, a decrease of 242,500 tons from last week [13].

Report Overview - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Urea & Methanol Weekly Report - Report Date: May 26, 2025 - Researcher: Cao Xuemei, Zhang Ying 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views Urea - Urea trading logic has returned to short - term supply - demand game after the digestion of export news, with prices falling from high levels. The price of the Urea 2509 contract on May 23 was 1827 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. Spot prices also declined [7][12]. - Supply remains high, with a national urea开工负荷率 of 87.84% and a daily output of 20.36 tons. Coal prices are under pressure, and demand from the compound fertilizer and other industrial sectors is weak. Overall production and sales have weakened, and prices may continue to decline weakly, with an operation range of 1770 - 1870 yuan/ton [7]. Methanol - Methanol prices have continued to fall. The price of the Methanol 09 contract on May 23 was 2222 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from last week, and the spot price in Taicang also decreased [8][39]. - Supply is relatively abundant, with a capacity utilization rate of 87.04%. The arrival volume has recovered, and downstream demand is weak. However, due to the limited inventory pressure on enterprises, the decline in methanol prices is expected to slow down, with an operation range of 2200 - 2350 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Market Changes - The price of the Urea 2509 contract on May 23 was 1827 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. The daily average price in the Henan market was 1868 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton, and in the Shandong market was 1877 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton [7][12]. Supply - The national urea开工负荷率 was 87.84%, with a gas - head enterprise开工负荷率 of 74.98%, basically flat from last week. The daily output was 20.36 tons. A maintenance device in Xinjiang is expected to resume next week, and the daily output is expected to increase slightly [16]. Cost and Profit - Anthracite prices are weakly stable, with the price of S0.4 - 0.5 anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng, Shanxi at 930 - 980 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. The gross profit margin of coal - based urea is 5.56%, and that of gas - based urea is - 4.56% [19]. Demand - The average pre - collection days of major urea producers are 4.2 days, and the weekly production - sales rate is 95.4%. Agricultural demand is moderately following up, the compound fertilizer industry's start - up has decreased, and the start - up of downstream products such as melamine has also declined slightly [21]. - As of May 22, there is still some unmet fertilizer demand for rice and corn. The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 37.57%, down 2.69 percentage points from last week, and the inventory is 76.26 tons, down 1.25 tons [26][29]. - The start - up rate of the melamine industry is 63.95%, down 6 percentage points, and the weekly output is 3.15 tons. The demand support from the board market has weakened [32]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory is 66.8 tons, up 0.5 tons from last week, and port inventory is 20.3 tons, up 3.5 tons. The number of registered warrants is 7548, equivalent to 15.096 tons of urea, an increase of 193 warrants (0.386 tons) from last week [36]. Methanol Market Changes - The price of the Methanol 09 contract on May 23 was 2222 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price in Taicang was 2278 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton [8][39]. Supply - The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants is 87.04%, down 1.43 percentage points from last week. Some plants in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan have restarted, and the arrival volume is expected to be 9.7 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons from last week [45]. Cost and Profit - Coal supply may tighten slightly, but inventory at all levels is high, and the decline in thermal coal prices is expected to slow down. The weekly profit of coal - based methanol is 57 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton from last week; that of natural - gas - based methanol is 37 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton; and that of coke - oven - gas - based methanol is 351 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton [48]. Demand - The start - up rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry is 83.82%, up 1.51 percentage points. The demand from the main downstream is relatively stable, but the traditional demand is in the off - season. Some acetic acid plants are under maintenance, and there are shutdown projects in BDO and dimethyl ether, so the demand support for methanol is limited [52]. Inventory - The inventory of sample methanol enterprises is 23.52 tons, down 3.84 tons from last week, and the port inventory is 49.04 tons, up 0.65 tons [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Defensive Observation [1][5] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the Short Term [5] - Rebar: Temporarily Observe [1][7] - Iron Ore: Oscillate Weakly [1][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillate [1][9] - Copper: Cautious Trading within Range [1][12] - Aluminum: Observe [1][14] - Nickel: Observe or Short on Highs [1][15] - Tin: Range Trading [1][17] - Gold: Build Long Positions on Lows after Full Price Correction [1][19] - Silver: Range Trading [1][19] - PVC: Oscillate Weakly [1][22] - Soda Ash: Observe [1][31] - Caustic Soda: Oscillate Weakly [1][24] - Rubber: Oscillate Weakly [1][25] - Urea: Oscillate [1][28] - Methanol: Wide - Range Oscillation [1][29] - Plastic: Wide - Range Oscillation [1][30] - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillate and Rebound [1][33] - Apple: Oscillate [1][33] - PTA: Range Oscillation [1][35] - Live Pigs: Oscillate Weakly [1][37] - Eggs: Short on Highs [1][39] - Corn: High - Level Oscillation [1][40] - Soybean Meal: Cautiously Chase Highs, Go Long on Pullbacks [1][42] - Oils and Fats: Short on Highs [1][47] Core Views - The global market is affected by factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic data. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities due to their unique fundamentals and macro - environmental impacts. For example, tariff issues bring uncertainties to the market, while supply - demand imbalances determine the price trends of commodities [5][22][37]. Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Due to international tariff threats, domestic market rotation, and weak main - line driving forces, the stock index may oscillate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a defensive observation strategy [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the issuance of a large amount of interest - rate bonds, the biggest negative factor in the market has been digested. With the clear attitude of monetary policy support, the bond market is expected to oscillate upwards [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The supply - demand contradiction is gradually emerging as demand weakens seasonally and steel mills have no strong intention to cut production. With low - level valuation, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Although affected by some events, the overall supply is increasing, and demand may decline slightly. It is recommended to observe as the 09 contract is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal prices face downward pressure due to sufficient supply and weakening demand. Coke also has supply - demand contradictions, and both are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Despite some weakening in fundamentals, low inventory still supports prices. The Shanghai copper may maintain an oscillating pattern before the holiday, and it is recommended to trade cautiously within the range [12]. - **Aluminum**: With the increase in alumina price and complex supply - demand situations, and the possible impact of trade negotiations on exports, it is recommended to observe [14]. - **Nickel**: The cost is firm, but there is an oversupply in the medium - long term. It is recommended to observe or short on highs as it is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Tin**: Supply recovery expectations and the impact of tariff policies on demand may increase price volatility. It is recommended to trade within the range [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, inflation data, and tariff policies, prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on lows after price corrections [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak demand, over - capacity, and high inventory, the price is in a weak position. Although there is short - term tariff relief, the impact on demand still exists. The price is expected to oscillate, and macro - news should be continuously monitored [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: In June, it may show a situation of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and be shorted in the medium term. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and downstream demand [24]. - **Rubber**: Although there is short - term support at the bottom, the supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [25]. - **Urea**: Supply is stable, and demand is expected to be released. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to pressure and support levels [28]. - **Methanol**: Supply is relatively abundant, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a wide range [29]. - **Plastic**: Supply pressure is relieved, but downstream demand is still weak. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as downstream demand and policies [30]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is still at a high level, but the expectation of maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is not optimistic. It is recommended to observe in the short term and pay attention to short - term price drops and 9 - 1 positive spread opportunities [31]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Although global supply - demand is still loose, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations may lead to an oscillating rebound in cotton prices [33]. - **Apple**: With the approach of the Dragon Boat Festival, low inventory supports prices, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [33]. - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream polyester demand, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to oscillate within a range [34]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Supply is increasing and postponed, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on highs at the resistance level, with attention paid to factors such as enterprise slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening [37]. - **Eggs**: Short - term demand may increase, but supply is continuously accumulating. In the long term, supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to observe the 06 contract and short on highs for the 08 and 09 contracts [39]. - **Corn**: In the short term, there is support for prices due to reduced grassroots grain sources and positive market sentiment. In the long term, supply - demand tightens, but there are also factors such as policy release and substitute products. It is recommended to go long on lows within the range and pay attention to 7 - 9 positive spread opportunities [40]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate at a low level due to sufficient supply. In the long term, it may strengthen due to increased costs and weather disturbances. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs in the short term and go long on pullbacks after mid - June [42]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they are expected to oscillate within a range due to complex supply - demand factors. In the long term, they may decline in June and rebound in the third quarter. It is recommended to short on highs cautiously and pay attention to spread - widening strategies [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - disturbances are weakening, but the Sino - US game continues, and there is still a possibility of repetition in the tariff issue. The prices of non - ferrous metals continue to fluctuate. The fundamentals of different metals have different impacts on prices, and the prices of each metal are expected to show different trends in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Trend Status**: High - level and strong - side oscillation, with a price range of 76000 - 79500 [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Mine - end disturbances continue, the cost pressure of smelters limits the downward space of prices, but the supply shortage pressure is difficult to change. Consumption in May weakened compared with April but was better than the same period. Social inventory has been slightly accumulating since May, and the spot premium has weakened, but the low - level inventory still supports the premium. The market demand is difficult to recover significantly at the end of the month, but there may be some inventory - building sentiment during the Dragon Boat Festival. The fundamentals still support the copper price, and the Shanghai copper may maintain an oscillating pattern before the festival [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading, and pay attention to the position of near - month contracts [3]. 3.2 Aluminum - **Trend Status**: Continued strong - side oscillation [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The revocation of some mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has also increased. The demand of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises has declined, and the off - season is approaching. However, the unexpected de - stocking of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods, and the 90 - day tariff window period promote export rush. The short - term aluminum price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait - and - see [3]. 3.3 Zinc - **Trend Status**: Oscillation, with a price range of 22000 - 23000 [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply of the mine end is loose, and the domestic inventory has decreased. However, the traditional consumption peak season of downstream has passed, and the consumption is weak, with insufficient fundamental support. If the inventory turns, the decline of zinc price may expand [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading [3]. 3.4 Lead - **Trend Status**: Overall strong - side oscillation, with a price range of 16600 - 17100 [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply and demand are both weak. The import decline has accelerated the de - stocking of domestic lead, but it is in the consumption off - season, and both smelters and battery enterprises are waiting and watching [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading [3]. 3.5 Nickel - **Trend Status**: Weak - side oscillation, with a price range of 122000 - 127000 for nickel and 12800 - 13200 for stainless steel [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the cost is firm, but the long - term supply of nickel is excessive. The profit of nickel - iron is in deficit, the demand for stainless steel is average, and the demand for nickel sulfate is flat [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading [3]. 3.6 Tin - **Trend Status**: Side - way oscillation, with a price range of 250,000 - 275,000 [4]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply has recovered, and the consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The inventory is at a medium level, and the mine - end resumption expectation is strong. The US tariff policy suppresses the terminal demand of electronic products, and the price fluctuation is expected to increase [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading, and pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon - **Trend Status**: The downward trend remains unchanged, and it continues to decline at a low level [4]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The weekly output and factory inventory have decreased, and the cost has decreased due to the decline in electricity prices and reducing agent prices. The start - up of industrial silicon furnaces has decreased, and the enterprises in the southwest region will gradually resume production during the wet season, but are restricted by the low silicon price [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait - and - see [4]. 3.8 Carbonate Lithium - **Trend Status**: The downward trend remains unchanged, and it continues to decline at a low level [4]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. The supply is stable, but the short - term demand growth rate is lower than the supply. The import supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to continue the weak - side oscillation [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - selling at high prices, and pay attention to the upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.9 Macro - economic Data - **China**: In April, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed down, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased, the real estate development investment continued to decline, and the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR both decreased by 10 basis points [13][14][15][16]. - **US**: In May, the Markit manufacturing, service, and comprehensive PMI were all better than expected and in an expansion state. The Trump tax - cut bill passed in the House of Representatives, and Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU from June 1 [17][19][20]. - **Eurozone**: In May, the PMI unexpectedly shrank, and the service industry performance reached the worst level in 16 months [18].

Report Overview - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures PTA Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: May 26, 2025 - Research Team: Cotton Spinning Team - Analysts: Hong Runxia, Huang Shanghai - Contacts: Zhong Zhou, Gu Zhenxiang 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply and demand of the PTA industry are acceptable, and prices will fluctuate within a range [25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - PX: Last week, domestic PX production was 644,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31%, and the weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. Due to the continuous decline in downstream polyester start - up, PX destocking slowed down. With the weakening support from the cost - end crude oil, PX prices gradually declined [2]. - PTA: Last week, PTA prices fluctuated and declined. The cost - end international oil prices weakened due to the expected increase in production. On the supply side, PTA start - up increased slightly, while downstream polyester load decreased slightly. PTA destocking continued, and the short - term fundamentals still had some support [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Last week, ethylene glycol prices fluctuated and declined. At the beginning, due to the decrease in domestic production and imported arrivals, domestic ethylene glycol prices continued to rise. However, due to downstream enterprises' resistance to high - priced goods and the expected decline in cost - end oil prices, the short - term price maintained a volatile operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Last week, short - fiber prices fluctuated following the raw material prices. At the beginning, affected by the decline in the raw material end, short - fiber prices declined. Then, due to producers and traders being bearish on the future market and willing to sell at low prices, the spot and futures prices were dragged down. However, due to the tight liquidity of some goods, the decline was limited [2]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of May 22, the PTA spot price was 4,922 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan or 0.04%. As of the 23rd, the PTA spot price increased by 20 to 4,880 yuan/ton. There was a game between cost and demand, and the market was re - balancing future supply and demand. The absolute price fluctuated at the lower end, the spot basis was relatively strong, and the trading on the trading side was active, with overall quiet trading [4][6]. 3.3 PTA Upstream - Crude oil: As of May 21, the WTI price was $61.57 per barrel, a decrease of 0.08% from May 15; the Brent price was $64.91 per barrel, an increase of 0.59% from May 15. The main influencing factors were the ongoing differences in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, the possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, the improved market expectations for demand prospects, as well as the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation and the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories [7]. - PX: The domestic PX production last week was 644,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31%. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. The spread between PX and naphtha and the spread between PX and MX increased. Due to the unplanned load reduction or shutdown of some enterprises, the spot tightness of PX continued, and the spot purchasing power increased. As of May 21, the average PX - N was $268.47 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $22.05 per ton, and the average PX - M was $110.37 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $8.95 per ton [9]. 3.4 PTA Supply - Last week, the domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate reached 77.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. Zhongtai Chemical restarted, and Jiayun's No. 2 line was shut down for maintenance near the weekend. Overall, the domestic capacity utilization rate increased slightly [15]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Supply - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 55.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.66%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants was 55.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39%; the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 55%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42%. China's weekly ethylene glycol production was 332,900 tons, a decrease of 9.28% from the previous week [17]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - Last week, China's polyester industry's weekly production was 1,584,900 tons, an increase of 160 tons or 0.1% from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry was 90.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3%. The different trends of production and capacity utilization were mainly due to the maintenance of some polyester factories during the week, but the inclusion of Xin Fengming's new plant at the end of last week and the increased load of Xin Fengming and Hengyi's new plants this week [22]. 3.7 Terminal Weaving - Last week, the comprehensive start - up rate of major domestic weaving production bases was 57.65%, the same as the previous week. The start - up rates of different types of looms varied. Currently, the tail orders of domestic summer clothing fabrics are being gradually delivered, and subsequent orders are declining. With unclear new foreign trade orders, the off - season atmosphere in the market is becoming more obvious, and the inventory of grey fabrics has slightly increased. The local market still mainly consists of small - batch orders, and the sustainability of the overall order quantity remains to be observed [24]. 3.8 Market Outlook - PX: Affected by the expected increase in crude oil production, the cost support weakened. With the continued maintenance of domestic and overseas plants, it is expected that the weekly PX production will increase slightly, and PX prices will continue to fluctuate strongly [25]. - PTA: With the weak support from crude oil at the cost end, although some plants are planned to restart, overall production will increase. Downstream polyester load decreases slightly, and the destocking of supply and demand slows down. It is expected that PTA prices will fluctuate in the range of 4,650 - 4,900 yuan/ton [25]. - Ethylene Glycol: With the weak international crude oil prices and weak cost support, and considering the supply - demand pattern, it is expected that ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate in the range of 4,350 - 4,500 yuan/ton [25]. - Short - fiber: With the decline in PTA prices at the raw material end and the narrowing of processing fees, and the weak terminal demand, it is expected that short - fiber market prices will fluctuate and consolidate within a range [25]. 3.9 Strategy Suggestion - Enterprises should conduct hedging based on costs.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Pig**: Supply pressure is gradually being released, and futures prices are oscillating at a low level. In the short - term, there is a game between supply and demand, and pig prices are supported at a low level with intensified oscillations. In the medium - to - long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices still face a risk of decline [4][50]. - **Egg**: Hen culling has accelerated, and the support for the futures market has strengthened. In the short - term, the Dragon Boat Festival may boost egg prices, but high supply and weather conditions will put pressure on prices. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [5][74]. - **Corn**: The end of grass - roots grain sales has strengthened the support for the futures market. In the short - term, the spot price has support. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship is tightening, which drives prices up, but the upside space is limited due to substitutes [6][99]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig 3.1.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the national spot price was 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.41 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 14.59 yuan/kg, down 0.32 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of pig 2509 was 13,515 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton from last week; the 09 - contract basis was 1,075 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton from last week [4][50]. 3.1.2. Supply End - From May to November 2024, the inventory of breeding sows increased steadily, and performance improved. In the case of stable epidemics, the supply from May to September 2025 showed an increasing trend. Although the breeding profit declined and the production capacity was reduced, the overall reduction was limited. In May 2025, the planned slaughter volume of key provincial enterprises and large - scale enterprises increased month - on - month [4][50]. 3.1.3. Demand End - It is currently the off - season for consumption. With the hot weather, terminal consumption is mediocre, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate remains low. Although there is inventory demand before the Dragon Boat Festival, the increase in slaughter volume is limited due to the losses of slaughtering enterprises [4][50]. 3.1.4. Cost End - The weekly piglet price decreased slightly, the price of binary breeding sows was stable, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets decreased slightly [4][50]. 3.1.5. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, there is a game between supply and demand, and pig prices are supported at a low level with intensified oscillations. In the medium - to - long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices still face a risk of decline [4][50]. 3.1.6. Strategy Suggestion - Do not chase short positions. Wait for a rebound and then go short at high levels. For the 07 contract, the pressure level is 13,700 - 13,800, and the support level is lowered to 13,000 - 13,100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14,000 - 14,200, and the support level is 13,300 - 13,400. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract after a rebound [4][50]. Egg 3.2.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.28 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, down 0.5 yuan/jin from last Friday. The main egg futures contract 2507 closed at 2,966 yuan/500 kg, down 15 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 346 yuan/500 kg, 205 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday [5][74]. 3.2.2. Supply End - The newly - opened laying hens in May corresponded to the chicks supplemented in January 2025, with a large number of new layers. Some breeding enterprises chose to cull hens, and the supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the market supply was still relatively sufficient. In the long - term, the high number of chicks supplemented from February to April 2025 will lead to more newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025 [5][74]. 3.2.3. Demand End - As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, low egg prices may stimulate terminal demand, but high temperatures and humidity in the south are not conducive to egg storage, and the demand for driving up egg prices is relatively limited [5][74]. 3.2.4. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the Dragon Boat Festival may boost egg prices, but high supply and weather conditions will put pressure on prices. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [5][74]. 3.2.5. Strategy Suggestion - Be cautious about short - chasing the 07 contract after June. For the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the 3,750 - 3,800 pressure level for the 08 contract. Look for long opportunities for the 10 contract at low levels [5][74]. Corn 3.3.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main corn futures contract 2507 closed at 2,327 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton weaker than last Friday [6][99]. 3.3.2. Supply End - As the price rises to a high level, traders' willingness to sell increases, and the market supply increases. However, grass - roots grain sales are basically over, and traders are firm in their asking prices. The current inventory in the north and south ports is in the process of depletion, which supports the spot price. In April, corn imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [6][99]. 3.3.3. Demand End - The increase in livestock and poultry inventory drives up feed demand, but the narrowing price difference between corn and wheat has led to an increase in the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing wheat, squeezing the feed demand for corn. Deep - processing enterprises are in a loss state, with a decline in the operating rate and limited incremental demand [6][99]. 3.3.4. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the reduction of grass - roots grain sources provides support for prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship is tightening, which drives prices up, but the upside space is limited due to substitutes [6][99]. 3.3.5. Strategy Suggestion - Take a moderately bullish view in the general direction. The 07 contract oscillates at a high level (2,300 - 2,360), and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage [6][99].