饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 咨询电话：027-65777093 从业编号：F03089203 投资咨询编号：Z0020750 4 月 1 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上日稳定；河南 14.4-15.2 元/公 斤，较上日稳定；四川 14.2-14.6 元/公斤，较上日稳定；广东 14.8-15.4 元/公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价稳定为主。目前行业养殖利润仍存， 短期规模场多控重出猪均摊生产成本，且肥标价差虽缩窄但仍处高位，养殖 端降重出猪意愿不足，二育低位入场积极性较好，以及屠宰库存偏低，猪价 低位也会考虑冻品入库，叠加清明节和五一假期，需求或小幅增加，均支撑 价格。不过价格涨高后二次育肥介入谨慎，大猪出栏积极性增强，而终端消 费增量有限，屠企大多亏损，猪价上方承压 短期猪价围绕 14 元/公斤震荡 整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育和屠宰冻品入库情况。中长期来看，能繁母 猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月持续缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，3-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据和存栏结构，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔 猪同比增加，2 月中大猪存栏占比增长，二季度出 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手）,未点价，想接货， 到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双方会平 仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷，利润 越来少，限制棉花涨幅。由于特朗惠普 2.0 时代，中美博弈才开始，面 对出口严峻的形势以及国内稳定经济的组合拳，上半年胜负为明还相安 无事，主要区间震荡，但是到了下半年，我们要面对几个变数，一是新 疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉花，其他种 植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新年度棉花丰 产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已 经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On the evening of March 27, the US government asked oil and biofuel producers to reach an agreement on the next stage of the national biofuel policy. The preliminary agreement on increasing the total biofuel blending volume is expected to boost the future biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. This event led to a significant increase in US soybean oil and domestic oils and fats [1][5]. - The meeting participants basically agreed to significantly increase the biofuel blending requirements. The current EPA - regulated total blending volume of biodiesel + renewable diesel in 2025 is 3.35 billion gallons, and the discussed blending range is between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons, corresponding to an incremental raw material demand of 5.2034 - 7.991 million tons. This is very beneficial for the long - term biodiesel demand of US soybean oil [2][5]. - In the short term, this news will stimulate the collective rebound of domestic oils and fats by boosting the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. Palm oil will perform the strongest, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil will be less affected. In the long term, if the EPA raises the biofuel blending volume, it will support the prices of US soybean oil and the overall oils and fats market, but the actual support depends on the specific policy terms [3][20]. Summary by Related Content Impact on US Biofuel Policy and Demand - Before this event, the market was pessimistic about the US biodiesel policy in the Trump era. But now, the expectation is shaken as the meeting participants agreed to increase the blending requirements. The incremental blending volume of 1.4 - 2.15 billion gallons will significantly boost the biodiesel demand for various vegetable oils [5][6]. - There are uncertainties in the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, including limited raw material supply and pressing capacity, disputes over small refinery RFS exemptions, and the absence of tax credit policies [2][15]. Impact on Different Raw Materials - Although the US biodiesel has diverse raw material sources, considering the 45Z Act and trade disputes, the increase in blending volume is most beneficial for the price of domestic raw material, i.e., US soybean oil [2][10]. - The incremental raw material demand of 5.2034 - 7.991 million tons corresponds to an incremental soybean oil demand of 1.82 - 2.8 million tons. Considering the supply gap transfer, the data will be higher. The incremental soybean demand can be met through domestic soybean expansion, transfer of export demand to pressing demand, or imports, but each method has limitations [2][12][13]. Market Impact and Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, from April, the oils and fats market will face supply pressure, but there are also positive factors that will disturb the decline. Rapeseed oil will show relatively strong oscillations. In the long term, in the third quarter of 25/26, soybean and rapeseed oils are expected to lead the oils and fats market to stop falling and rebound [21]. - For trading strategies, the 05 contracts of soybean and palm oils are expected to oscillate within the ranges of 7700 - 8200 and 8700 - 9200 respectively. It is recommended to operate within the ranges and pay attention to the inventory inflection point of palm oil and soybean arrivals. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the pressure at 9300. For arbitrage, focus on the strategy of expanding the spreads of 09 contracts of rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean oils [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bonds are recommended for timely profit - taking [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar, double - coking are expected to fluctuate; iron ore is expected to be weakly fluctuating [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to close long positions at high prices and replenish on dips; aluminum is recommended to buy on dips, with the main contract reference range of 20300 - 21000; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices; tin is expected to be strongly fluctuating; gold and silver are recommended to build positions on dips and be cautious about chasing highs [1][11][17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; urea is recommended for range trading; soda ash is recommended to hold short call options [1][20][25] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner; PTA is expected to be weakly fluctuating [1][26][27] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are expected to be weakly fluctuating; eggs have strong support in the near - term and are recommended to be shorted at high prices in the far - term; corn is recommended to go long on dips; soybean meal is weakly fluctuating, with different strategies for different contracts; oils are expected to trade in a range [1][31][34] Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as Trump's tariff policy, Fed's interest - rate policy, and economic data. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand relationships and cost factors [5][11][17] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by factors like Trump's global tax plan, large - scale financing by state - owned banks, and upcoming PMI data, the index futures are expected to fluctuate [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: With sufficient capital supply but high short - term interest rates, and the upcoming PMI data, it is recommended to take profits in a timely manner and wait for further fundamental signals [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: With slightly increased production, consumption, and faster destocking, and considering domestic policies, demand verification, and tariff impacts, the price is expected to fluctuate, with the RB2505 contract focusing on the range of 3100 - 3300 [6] - **Iron Ore**: With increased supply and limited subsequent production growth, and considering tariff policies, it is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and it is recommended to short at high prices [6][7] - **Double - Coking**: For coking coal, supply is gradually increasing, and demand is marginally recovering. For coke, supply and demand contradictions are alleviated, but the rebound space depends on terminal demand. Both are expected to fluctuate [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by tariff policies and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high prices and replenish on dips [11] - **Aluminum**: With increased production capacity and demand, and considering tariff impacts, it is recommended to buy on dips, with the main contract reference range of 20300 - 21000 [13] - **Nickel**: Affected by macro - factors and nickel - related policies, it is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [13][14] - **Tin**: With supply and demand changes, it is expected to have greater price fluctuations. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions and not chase highs, with the reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 05 contract [15] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by economic data, tariff policies, and market sentiment, it is recommended to build positions on dips and be cautious about chasing highs [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak demand, high supply pressure, and limited fundamental drivers, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, with the upper resistance at 5200 [20] - **Caustic Soda**: With high inventory and limited upward drivers, it is expected to fluctuate [23] - **Urea**: With a slight decrease in supply and stable demand, and considering inventory changes, it is recommended for range trading, with the 05 contract reference range of 1720 - 1900 [23][24] - **Methanol**: With high domestic production, sufficient supply, and certain downstream demand support, it is expected to trade in the range of 2500 - 2650 [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: With increasing supply and relatively slow demand improvement, it is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and it is recommended to hold short call options [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: With weak market consumption, they are expected to fluctuate [26] - **Apples**: With good inventory clearance and low inventory, the price is expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner [26] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and processing fees, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4700 - 5000 [27][28] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: With short - term supply pressure and limited terminal consumption, the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and it is recommended to short at high prices [29][31] - **Eggs**: With increasing supply and demand in the short - term and increasing supply pressure in the long - term, the 05 contract is recommended to hedge on rebounds, and the 08 and 09 contracts are recommended to be shorted [30][31] - **Corn**: With reduced selling pressure and tightened supply - demand in the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, with the 05 contract focusing on the support range of 2250 - 2270 [32][33] - **Soybean Meal**: With short - term weak performance and long - term cost support, different strategies are recommended for different contracts [33][34] - **Oils**: With short - term supply pressure and long - term potential for price rebound, different contracts are recommended for range trading and spread trading [34][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market in March showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The early decline was affected by high inventory and real - estate new construction data, followed by an obvious upward trend due to improved sales in Shahe and Hubei. The supply decreased slightly in March with 2 cold - repairs and 1 new ignition. The national inventory reached a downward turning point. Although the sales in major production areas were good, there were signs of weakening. The release of construction orders was still below expectations. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remained prominent, and the futures market was considered weak. Considering the current situation, it is recommended to short the May contract and go long on the September contract [3][87]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review: Strong Sales and Bottom Rebound - **Price Changes**: As of March 28, the spot price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1,250 yuan/ton (+10), in Central China was 1,150 yuan/ton (0), and in East China was 1,360 yuan/ton (0). The glass 05 contract closed at 1,197 yuan/ton last Friday, up 24 yuan for the week. The 05 - 09 spread was - 53 yuan/ton (+8), and the 05 contract basis was - 37 yuan/ton (-14) [14][18]. - **Soda - Glass Spread**: As of March 28, the soda futures price was 1,393 yuan/ton, the glass futures price was 1,197 yuan/ton, and the spread between them was 196 yuan/ton (-41) [15]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Pattern: Coal Price Drop and Weak Real Estate - **Import and Export**: In December last year, China's float glass imports were 271,100 weight - boxes (a year - on - year decrease of 48%), and exports were 1.12 million weight - boxes (a year - on - year increase of 157%). In February, imports decreased compared with the same period last year, but exports increased [22]. - **Profit**: The natural gas - made process cost was 1,626 yuan/ton (-2), with a gross profit of - 266 yuan/ton (+2); the coal - gas - made process cost was 1,195 yuan/ton (+4), with a gross profit of 55 yuan/ton (+6); the petroleum - coke - made process cost was 1,171 yuan/ton (-2), with a gross profit of - 21 yuan/ton (+2) [28]. - **Supply**: Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 157,655 tons/day (-500). In March, 2 production lines were cold - repaired and 1 was newly ignited [30]. - **Inventory**: As of March 28, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 67.012 million weight - boxes (-2.448 million). The inventory in North China, Central China, East China, South China, Southwest China, Shahe, and Hubei all decreased [37]. - **Deep - Processing**: Last week, the national average sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 122.13% (+5.8%). On March 28, the LOW - E glass开工率 was 40.52% (-0.99%). In mid - March, the order days of glass deep - processing were 8 days (+1.2) [43][44][45]. - **Demand - Automobile**: In February, China's automobile production was 2.103 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 347,000 and a year - on - year increase of 597,000), and sales were 2.129 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 294,000 and a year - on - year increase of 545,000). The retail volume of new - energy passenger cars was 686,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 49.5%, a month - on - month increase of 8% [52]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: In February, China's real - estate completion area was 87.6421 million square meters (a year - on - year decrease of 16%), new construction area was 66.1394 million square meters (-30%), construction area was 6.0597235 billion square meters (-9%), and commercial housing sales area was 107.459 million square meters (-5%) [57]. - **Cost - Soda Ash**: As of March 28, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,600 yuan/ton (0), in East China was 1,550 yuan/ton (-25), in Central China was 1,525 yuan/ton (-25), and in South China was 1,675 yuan/ton (0). The soda ash 2505 contract closed at 1,393 yuan/ton (-17) last Friday, and the Central China basis was 132 yuan/ton (-8) [64]. - **Cost - Soda Ash Profit**: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,530 yuan/ton (-88), with a gross profit of 0 yuan/ton (+52); the cost of the co - production method was 1,980 yuan/ton (-32), with a gross profit of 211 yuan/ton (-48) [65]. - **Cost - Soda Ash Inventory**: Last week, the national soda ash production was 690,200 tons (a week - on - week increase of 37,900), including 369,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 21,500) and 321,200 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 16,400). The inventory in soda ash factories nationwide was 1.63 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 57,800) [82]. - **Cost - Soda Ash Supply and Demand**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 422,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 27,100), and for light soda ash was 326,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 21,200). The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.86% (a week - on - week increase of 1.88%) [85]. 3.3 Investment Strategy: Uncertain Demand, Short May and Long September - **Main Logic**: The glass futures market showed a trend of first falling and then rising in March. The previous decline was due to high inventory and poor real - estate new construction data, and then the market rose due to improved sales in Shahe and Hubei. The supply decreased slightly in March, and the national inventory reached a downward turning point. Although the sales in major production areas were good, there were signs of weakening. The release of construction orders was still below expectations. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remained prominent, and the futures market was considered weak. Considering the current situation, it is recommended to short the May contract and go long on the September contract [3][87]. - **Operation Strategy**: Short the May contract and go long on the September contract [2][4][88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first quarter of 2025, the urea market showed complex trends. The price of urea futures and spot increased, production capacity and output expanded, demand was strong, and exports increased. In the future, the price trend will be affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, raw material prices, and macro - environment. The price may experience stages of rising to reduce inventory, short - term price cuts to reduce inventory, and then rising again, and finally face pressure due to high supply and low demand [6][9][21][48] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Quarterly Market Review - **Futures Price**: In the first quarter, the urea futures price rose from 1,650 yuan/ton to 1,890 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan/ton. The price fluctuated with factors such as seasonal demand and compound fertilizer production. The peak trading volume of the main contract was 481,300 lots, and the peak open interest was 279,900 lots [6] - **Spot Price**: In January 2025, the urea price dropped to around the first quartile of the ten - year historical price (1,681 yuan/ton), and then rose steadily, approaching the second quartile (1,885 yuan/ton) [9] 2. Coal and Grain Price Review - **Coal Price**: In the first quarter, coal prices continued to weaken. The price of anthracite decreased from 1,040 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton, and the price of thermal coal decreased from 677 yuan/ton to 602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton. The cost support for urea from coal weakened, but the production profit of urea recovered, with the gross profit margin of coal - based urea rising from - 3.16% to 8.3% [12] - **Grain Price**: In the first quarter, grain prices generally rebounded. The price of corn increased from 2,009 yuan/ton to 2,194 yuan/ton, an increase of 185 yuan/ton, and the price of wheat increased from 2,366 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton [16] 3. Urea Production Capacity and Output Analysis - **Production Capacity**: In 2025, new (expanded) urea production capacity totaled 557 tons. Some projects such as Shaanxi Coal Chemical Industry, Gansu Liuhua, and Jiangsu Jinkong Hengsheng have been put into production [20] - **Output**: In the first quarter, the urea operating rate increased from 72.8% to 85.3%, and the average daily output was higher than that in 2024, currently maintaining at 19 - 200,000 tons. The total output from January to February was 1.127 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 108,700 tons, and the output in March was expected to be about 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 45,000 tons [21] 4. Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - In 2024, the national grain sown area increased by 5.258 million mu compared with the previous year, a growth of 0.3%, and has been increasing for five consecutive years. With the improvement of agricultural production conditions, the demand for agricultural fertilizers will gradually be released. March - April is the peak season for spring wheat green - turning fertilizers, followed by the peak season for high - nitrogen compound fertilizer production [26] 5. Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - **Compound Fertilizer**: From January to March 2025, the compound fertilizer operating rate showed seasonal changes, reaching a peak of 57.75% at the end of February. The output from January to February was 690,000 tons, and the output in March was expected to be about 586,000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises is currently at 500,000 - 600,000 tons [31] - **Industrial Demand**: The supply of vehicle urea is sufficient, but the demand is limited due to the impact of new energy and natural gas vehicles. The consumption of building materials and home furnishing stores decreased in the first quarter, and the domestic demand for the panel market improved slightly. The production of melamine from January to February was 249,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,000 tons. The demand for urea desulfurization and denitrification in thermal power generation is stable, but the demand for inventory is small [32][35] 6. Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to February 2025, China's total fertilizer exports were 4.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.68 million tons, an increase of 56%. The export volume of mineral nitrogen fertilizers and chemical nitrogen fertilizers was 2.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 777,000 tons, an increase of 39.78%. The export volume of urea decreased by 81.08% year - on - year, while the export volume of ammonium sulfate increased by 39.15% year - on - year [38] 7. Urea Inventory Level Analysis - The urea enterprise inventory is at the level of 1 million tons, mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Shanxi. The port inventory is 134,000 tons, and the registered warehouse receipts are 5,563, equivalent to 111,260 tons of urea. In 2025, the urea inventory reached a new high, and the inventory reduction is currently going smoothly [40] 8. Urea Market Outlook - **Internal Factors**: In the early stage before the peak season, due to high daily production and high inventory, the downstream was cautious in purchasing. However, with the release of spring plowing fertilizer demand, the price entered the stage of rising to reduce inventory. After early April, the strategy of rising to reduce inventory may be ineffective, and it may enter a short - term stage of price cuts to reduce inventory. From mid - April to May, the price is expected to be strong, and after the end of May, the price is expected to be under pressure [48] - **External Factors**: The global economic situation in 2025 is more uncertain. The domestic macro - policy and market sentiment have a close impact on commodities. The increase in grain prices requires a significant improvement in consumption, otherwise, the upward drive is weak [48] - **Key Points of Attention**: Urea production capacity release, urea plant shutdown for maintenance, compound fertilizer operating rate, export policy, coal price, and macro - environment [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish outlook on the plastics industry [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future market expectation for plastics is weak, with the plastics 2505 contract expected to fluctuate in the short - term within the range of 7650 - 7750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to operate after the breakthrough direction is clear, with a cautious and bearish stance [4] - Cost - end factors such as OPEC+ production increase and the US tariff policy put pressure on future oil prices. The supply side has large pressure due to new capacity launches and reduced planned maintenance in April - May. The demand side shows that the agricultural film's operating rate is approaching its recent high, and the packaging film and pipe industries are expected to follow up. High inventory levels also exert pressure on prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic Weekly Market Review - On March 28, the closing price of the plastics 2505 contract was 7701 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot price decline trend of plastics has eased. The average price of LDPE was 9666.67 yuan/ton (0% MoM), HDPE was 8402.50 yuan/ton (0% MoM), and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 8073.53 yuan/ton (+0.52% MoM). The LLDPE South China basis was 372.53 yuan/ton (-1.12% MoM), and the May - September spread was 82 yuan/ton (-5) [4][8] 3.2 Key Data Tracking - Month Spread | Month Spread | Date | Value (yuan/ton) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 - 5 | 2025/3/28 | - 122 | +6 | | | 2025/3/21 | - 128 | | | 5 - 9 | 2025/3/28 | 82 | - 5 | | | 2025/3/21 | 87 | | | 9 - 1 | 2025/3/28 | 40 | - 1 | | | 2025/3/21 | 41 | | [13] 3.3 Key Data Tracking - Spot Price - The spot prices of different types of plastics (HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE) in various regions (Northeast, North, East, South, Central, Northwest, Southwest) showed different trends of increase and decrease [14][15] 3.4 Key Data Tracking - Cost - This week, WTI crude oil closed at $69.04 per barrel, up $0.75 per barrel from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $72.54 per barrel, up $0.87 per barrel from the previous week. The anthracite price at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton (-10). The oil - based cost support is expected to weaken, and the coal - based cost support is expected to change little [17] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Profit - The profit of oil - based PE was - 234 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 1713 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton from the previous week. The oil - based PE profit is expected to be weak, and the coal - based PE profit is expected to remain stable [20] 3.6 Key Data Tracking - Supply - This week, China's polyethylene production operating rate was 82.32%, up 1.66 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly polyethylene output reached 61.64 tons, up 2.27% MoM. The maintenance loss was 10.52 tons, down 0.75 tons from the previous week. In March, ExxonMobil (Huizhou), Inner Mongolia Baofeng, and Shandong New Era launched a total of 1.53 million tons of production capacity, and the planned maintenance in April - May is expected to decrease, resulting in large domestic supply pressure [24] 3.7 Key Data Tracking - 2025 Production Plan - Multiple enterprises have new production capacity plans in 2025, with a total planned new capacity of 5.43 million tons [26] 3.8 Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises' polyethylene production lines are under maintenance, with different parking and restart times [27] 3.9 Key Data Tracking - Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films was 40.70%, up 0.35% from the previous week; the operating rate of PE packaging films was 49.07%, up 3.70% from the previous week; and the operating rate of PE pipes was 30.50%, up 2.83% from the previous week. The peak season for plastic mulch in March continues, but the operating rate of agricultural films is expected to decline. The packaging film and pipe industries are gradually picking up [28] 3.10 Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio - Currently, the production ratio of linear films is the highest, accounting for 37.8%, with a difference of 0.8% from the annual average level. The proportion of low - pressure pipes is significantly different from the annual average, currently accounting for 8.3%, with a difference of 2.2% from the annual average [32] 3.11 Key Data Tracking - Inventory - This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 63.03 tons, with a change of 1.94 tons compared to the previous week [34] 3.12 Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts - On March 28, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 740 lots, down 3690 lots from the previous week [43]

氯碱周报： 供需边际改善 盘面低位震荡 2025-03-31 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 交易咨询号：Z0015756 01 核心观点总结 烧碱：出口边际好转 盘面低位震荡 01 p 本周回顾：截止周五，主力SH2505涨2.57%收于2596，山东32%液碱870（-90）元/吨，折百2719（-281）元/吨。 p 基本面情况： 目 录 01 烧碱：出口边际好转 盘面低位震荡 02 PVC：短期去库尚可 盘面低位震荡 资料来源：IFIND，博易云，卓创资讯，隆众资讯，长江期货 1. 上游：利润尚可，关注液氯。截至3月27日，山东原盐保持260（-5）元/吨，山东液氯价格+50（-50）元/吨。山东氯碱企业周平均毛利在796 元/吨，较上周环比-9.55%。周内山东液碱价格基本下行，液氯价格上行，周内整体氯碱利润下行。 2. 供应：供应维持高位，关注检修情况。截至3月27日，中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业周度产能利用率83.3%（-1.2%），周损失量16.62万吨 （+15.02%），周产量79.31万吨（-2.66%）。下一周， ...

2025-03-31 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 需求疲弱，期价偏弱震荡 长江期货红枣月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 01 走势回顾：3月红枣价格偏弱震荡 02 供应端分析：供应宽松，库存高企 03 需求端分析：传统淡季，需求偏弱 04 逻辑与展望：偏弱震荡 目 录 05 01 走势回顾：3月红枣价格偏弱震荡 01 3月红枣价格偏弱震荡 数据来源：博易大师、上海钢联、长江期货 数据来源：IFIND、上海钢联、长江期货 Ø 截至3月28日，24/25年度红枣仓单为6614张，有效预报983张，合计7597张，较去年同期减少10723张， 受原料质量及交割要求的优化，今年仓单量处于相对低位水平，但从红枣供应层面来看，库存水平为近4年 来最高位。 Ø 3月成交量及持仓量有所下滑，但持仓量仍处于高位水平，随着新季红枣进入生长季，市场关注度增加，成 交量及持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The price of apples is expected to strengthen, with future prices likely to be strong and showing an upward trend in oscillations [2][48] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Trend Review - In March, the center of gravity of apple futures shifted upward, with the price ranging from 7,000 to 7,800. The apple basis was 1 yuan, a decrease of 22 yuan compared to the previous month [6][7] 2. Supply - Side Analysis - **Main Producing Area Spot Prices**: In Shandong Qixia, the prices of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples were 3.50 - 4.00 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples were 4.00 - 4.50 yuan/jin, general goods were 2.50 - 3.00 yuan/jin, and third - grade apples were 1.80 - 2.10 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the prices of orchard - farmer general goods starting from 70 in the warehouse were 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin, merchant goods were 3.8 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and 70 high - grade inferior apples were 2.7 - 2.9 yuan/jin [15] - **Cold - Storage Inventory**: As of March 26, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of the country was 4.7182 million tons, a decrease of 287,900 tons compared to the previous week. Shandong's current inventory was 1.73 million tons, 513,300 tons less than the same period last year, and Shaanxi's current inventory was 1.672 million tons, 357,500 tons less than the same period last year [17][24] 3. Demand - Side Analysis - **Domestic Social Sales Data**: From January to February 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year - on - year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate in December last year, in line with market expectations. Among the 16 commodity categories of units above the designated size, 14 categories had year - on - year positive growth in retail sales [27] - **Domestic CPI**: In February, the year - on - year growth rate of the domestic CPI was - 0.7%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous value. The CPI food item increased by - 3.3% year - on - year, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous value; the CPI non - food item increased by 0.1% year - on - year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous value [30] - **Sales Area Delivery Situation**: In the South China market, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles in the Guangdong Chalong market increased week - on - week, with an average of about 42.25 vehicles per day during the week. The market was boosted by the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, and the arrival of goods remained high. The market was selling well, but high - price transactions were limited [34] - **Storage Merchant Profits**: In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.5 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin compared to the previous week [38] - **Related Fruit Market**: As of the 13th week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.565 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan/kg compared to the 12th week. The average wholesale prices of bananas, pineapples, watermelons, Ya pears, and Kyoho grapes increased week - on - week, while the average wholesale price of Fuji apples decreased by 0.06 yuan/kg [41] - **Market Sentiment**: The outbound of late - Fuji apples in the producing areas accelerated month - on - month. There was not much remaining orchard - farmer supply in the western region, and the trading shifted to merchant goods, with prices continuing to rise. There was a sentiment of bullishness and reluctance to sell among orchard farmers and merchants. In the sales areas, the number of arrival vehicles increased, the market delivery improved, and the market sentiment was mostly bullish [45] 4. Logic and Outlook - The current apple warehouse inventory in the country is significantly lower than last year, reaching a recent low. After the Spring Festival, consumption has increased year - on - year, and the shipment has accelerated. Before May, consumption can maintain a certain intensity, which will strengthen the impact of inventory reduction. It is expected that future prices will be strong, and attention should be paid to weather changes that may affect next year's production [48]