正信期货铜周报20250512 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 内容要点 宏观层面：节后铜价维持高位震荡走势，关税方面有缓和，COMEX-LME价差收敛，美国非农 就业有韧性，失业率维持4.2%，美国经济目前处于"软数据"大幅回落， "硬数据"尚可的阶 段，美联储重申不急降息的模糊态度，仍以控通胀的货币政策目标为主，我们认为美国经济的 走弱有一定持续性，但目前尚未完全触及衰退，关税政策带来的实际影响逐步体现，可能加速 这一进程，同时美联储依然难以降息，给出的预期管理方向比较模糊，这使得市场担忧衰退实 际发生后美联储才会有所行动，导致铜价从估值角度来看已经承压。国内端聚焦于政策刺激， 内需有支撑。 产业基本面：产业端的主要逻辑在于冶炼端的减产是否真实发生，在利润继续被侵蚀，矿端 依旧偏紧，铜价表现不佳的三重压力下冶炼困境比去年更甚。价格可能通过下跌的方式来淘汰 部分产能，但供给收缩后铜价将再度释放价格弹性。 策略：节前在国内高涨的买货情绪下， ...

主要观点 等待产地月报，内外棕榈油跌势放缓 正信期货棕榈油周报 20250512 分析师：张翠萍 投资咨询证号：Z0016574 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目 录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuw en/ 数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxu e/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ ...

美棉震荡偏弱，郑棉低位震荡 棉花周报 20250512 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/PPT教程：www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cnPPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/meishu/ 科学 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The weekly rating for egg supply is bearish, demand is neutral, profit is bullish, price and volume is neutral, and the strategy is volatile [3] Core Viewpoints - The current situation is similar to that in the first half of 2020 based on the analysis of the egg fundamental cycle. Before the production capacity is cleared due to losses in breeding profits, the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in egg futures is expected to continue. It is recommended to focus on the arbitrage strategy of selling near - term contracts and buying long - term contracts [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - In the spot price section, it involves the comparison between main production area prices and main sales area prices [5][7] - Regarding egg basis, it focuses on the basis of each egg futures contract [8][9] - For egg spreads, it analyzes the spreads of each egg futures contract [11][12] - In terms of futures institutional net positions, it shows the long - short difference and long - short ratio of institutional positions in the July egg futures contract [14][16] Supply Analysis - In the egg - laying hen inventory part, it includes egg - laying hen inventory and its structure [17][18] - Regarding the culling situation, it covers culling prices and the average culling age [19][20] - For the replenishment situation, it involves the price of commercial egg - laying chicks and the utilization rate of breeding eggs [22][23] - In the large - and small - sized egg situation, it includes the prices of large - and small - sized eggs and the seasonal chart of their price differences [24][25] Demand Analysis - In the shipment and sales volume part, it focuses on the sales volume in main sales areas and the shipment volume in main production areas [27][29] - Regarding inventory, it includes production - link inventory and circulation - link inventory [30][31] - For substitutes, it shows the seasonal charts of the price ratios between eggs and pork, and between eggs and vegetables [32][33] Profit Analysis - In the breeding profit part, it compares current and expected profits and shows the comprehensive breeding profit of egg - laying hens [34][36] - Regarding the egg - feed price ratio, it includes the egg - feed price ratio and its equilibrium point, as well as the seasonal chart of the egg - feed price ratio [37][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the pig industry is "oscillating," with a "neutral" rating for supply, a "bearish" rating for demand, a "neutral" rating for profit, and a "bullish" rating for price and volume [3] Core Viewpoints - The pig industry may enter a pressure cycle in 2025, and prices will face long - term downward pressure, but there may be short - term support for pig prices in the second quarter due to disease disturbances and breeding sentiment [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - This week, the basis of live pigs increased slightly, and the futures were in a slight discount state, limiting the downward space. The spread between near - and far - term live pig futures increased slightly and was at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The net short positions of institutional investors in the main live pig futures contract were decreasing [3] Supply Analysis - The average weight of commercial pig sales of sample breeding enterprises this week was basically flat, the spread between standard and fat pigs widened slightly, and the proportion of large pigs continued to increase. Since this year, the spread between near - and far - term live pig futures has remained high, and the term structure is almost horizontal, reflecting the market's balanced expectation of the supply - demand relationship. In the long - term, the hedging behavior dominated by funds in the pig industry strengthens the linkage between futures and spot, and the pricing of long - term futures contracts mainly revolves around costs. The near - term contracts have significantly enhanced resistance to decline due to disease disturbances and breeding sentiment [3] Demand Analysis - This week, slaughter orders decreased slightly, slaughter profits increased slightly, the fresh meat efficiency was basically flat, and the frozen product inventory rebounded slightly and was at a low level in the same period of the past four years. After the May Day holiday, pork purchases and sales returned to rationality, the purchasing and sales enthusiasm in cities decreased, orders of mainstream slaughtering enterprises decreased, and the operating rate gradually declined [3] Profit Analysis - The self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit is around the break - even point, and the pig - grain ratio is significantly higher than the average level in the same period of the past four years. In 2024, Muyuan Co., Ltd. had a net profit of 17.881 billion yuan, ranking first, with a year - on - year increase of 519.42%. In 2024, Muyuan significantly reduced the pig breeding cost from 15.8 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 13 yuan/kg in December, with an average annual breeding cost of about 14 yuan/kg. In 2025, Muyuan further reduced the cost, and the full cost of pig breeding in March has dropped to 12.5 yuan/kg, with a target of reducing the average annual cost to 12 yuan/kg in 2025 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - Spot prices continued to decline, and the market was weak. Supply showed high blast - furnace production and continuous reduction in electric - furnace output. Inventories of building materials and plates were both accumulating. Demand for building materials had a slower growth rate, and plate demand was weak domestically but strong externally. Profits of blast - furnaces expanded, while losses of electric - furnaces increased. The basis widened slightly. Overall, the supply - demand structure of building materials and plates weakened last week, and there was a risk of early inventory accumulation for building materials. The strategy was to maintain a bearish view and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [7]. Iron Ore - Ore prices rose slightly, but the market was still weak. Supply from Australia and Brazil declined, and arrivals also decreased. Demand exceeded expectations due to increased blast - furnace production. Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories also declined. Shipping prices dropped. The overall supply - demand situation in the industry remained weak, and the market was dragged down by the falling prices of steel products. The strategy was to continuously monitor the opportunity for a supplementary decline when hot - metal production peaked, and in the short - term, a small number of short positions could be established, adding positions on rebounds and holding them in the medium - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Last week, rebar prices continued to fall. The 10 - contract dropped 74 to 3022, and spot prices also weakened. The rebar in East China was reported at 3170 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 30 yuan. The overall trading volume was light [14]. 1.2 Supply - The blast - furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The average daily hot - metal output was 245.64 tons, a weekly increase of 0.22 tons. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnaces decreased by 0.20 percentage points. Rebar production decreased by 9.85 tons, and hot - rolled production increased by 1.08 tons [17][24][27]. 1.3 Demand - For building materials, from May 1st to May 7th, the national cement delivery volume decreased by 6.0% week - on - week and 22.5% year - on - year. The actual steel procurement volume in April was 566 tons, 4.1% less than the expected volume. The planned steel procurement volume in May was 605 tons, and the actual volume was expected to increase by about 4% month - on - month. For plates, domestic manufacturing demand declined significantly, while exports in April reached a new high [30][33]. 1.4 Profit - The profitability rate of blast - furnace steel mills was 58.87%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points week - on - week. The average profit of independent electric - arc furnace building material steel mills was - 91 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit decreased by 13 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. 1.5 Inventory - For rebar, factory inventories increased by 15.11 tons, and social inventories in most regions except East and South China decreased. For hot - rolled coils, factory inventories decreased, and social inventories increased in most regions [41][44]. 1.6 Basis - The current basis of rebar 10 was 128, 24 wider than last week. It was recommended to take profit on the previous long - basis positions around 100 and exit all positions before the holiday [50]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 15, 11 less inverted than last week. The current inversion situation was difficult to reverse completely, so no action was recommended [54]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 135, 27 wider than last week. The spot spread was 50, 10 wider than last week. There was no obvious driving force for the spread to continue narrowing, so no action was recommended [57]. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Last week, iron ore prices continued to fall. The 09 - contract dropped 7.5 to 696, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port dropped 3 to 758 yuan/ton. The market sentiment was weak, and port trading was poor [62]. 2.2 Supply - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2540.4 tons, a decrease of 217.9 tons week - on - week. The arrivals at 47 ports in China decreased by 45.2 tons week - on - week [65][71]. 2.3 Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills increased to 245.64 tons per day. After the May Day restocking ended, the market purchasing sentiment weakened, but the actual restocking situation was still good due to high hot - metal production and low steel mill inventories [74][78]. 2.4 Inventory - The inventory at 47 ports decreased by 84 tons week - on - week. The total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills decreased by 91.43 tons [81][84]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping price from Western Australia to China was 7.55 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.45 dollars/ton week - on - week. The shipping price from Brazil to China was 18.43 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.33 dollars/ton week - on - week [87]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 26, 1.5 higher than last week, and the overall spread structure was flat. The 09 - contract discount was 78, at a relatively high level. The coking - ore ratio dropped significantly, and the rebar - ore ratio changed little. There was no obvious direction for spread trading [89][92].

终端需求放缓，盘面弱势难改 煤焦周度报告 20250512 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 国内政策提振有限，盘面大幅下跌；二轮提涨搁置，现货暂稳 | | | 供给 | 焦企盈利继续修复，焦炭供应维持高位 | | | 需求 | 铁水增长停滞，后期有下滑预期；投机情绪弱化，出口利润下滑，建材现货日成交量较低 | | | 库存 | 全环节降库，总库存下滑 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利继续修复，焦炭盘面利润小幅下滑 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09升水转为基本平水，9-1价差略走强 | | | 总结 | 上周国内宏观政策落地，地产方面未出新的实质性利好，对黑色提振有限；而五大材减产却累库，表需下滑超预期，市场情绪转弱，双焦重回跌势。截 至周五收盘，焦炭09合约跌6.47%至1446.5，焦煤09合约跌5.39%至877.5。焦炭方面，现货暂稳，焦企盈利尚可，开工率维持高稳。需求方面，铁水虽 维持高位，但基本停止增长，短期原料刚需尚有支撑，然终端需求放缓，铁水后期有下滑压力。盘面大跌后，贸易商投机情绪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the pulp market have slightly improved, with port inventories being depleted. However, pressure still remains. Some traders have tentatively raised their quotes, and the macro - sentiment has improved over the weekend. This week, the main pulp futures price is expected to rebound within a certain range, but the upside space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review** - **Needle - stable and Broad - weak**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp showed a trend of stable needle pulp and weak broad - leaf pulp. In Shandong, the quotes of coniferous pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood remained unchanged, while the quotes of broad - leaf pulp such as Goldfish, Bird, and Alpa decreased. The Goldfish was quoted at 4,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (or - 1.2%); the Bird and Alpa were quoted at 4,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton (or - 2.41%) [10]. - **Stable Prices of Special Pulps**: The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp in Shandong remained stable. For example, the chemical mechanical pulp Kunhe was quoted at 3,900 yuan/ton, and the natural color pulp Venus was quoted at 5,350 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous week [13]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: The main pulp futures contract SP2507 first declined, then rebounded, and fluctuated within a 90 - point range last week. It finally closed at 5,164 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (or + 0.86%) for the week. The trading volume was 791,000 lots, an increase of 102,000 lots, and the open interest was 115,000 lots, a decrease of 2,200 lots [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: Due to the stable increase in the spot price of wood pulp being slightly less than the increase in the pulp futures price, the basis discount of futures - spot narrowed slightly. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract was 1,036 yuan/ton, a reduction of 44 yuan/ton compared with last week [19]. - **Log Futures Review**: The main log futures contract 2507 showed a trend of first rising, then falling, and fluctuating last week. It finally closed at 784.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 4.0 yuan/cubic meter (or - 0.51%) from the previous week. The trading volume was 61,000 lots, an increase of 30,500 lots, and the open interest was 30,700 lots, an increase of 2,000 lots [21]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the weekly pulp production was 465,700 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons (or 0.56%) compared with the previous week. The production of broad - leaf pulp was 215,400 tons, and the production of chemical mechanical pulp was 200,700 tons. It is expected that the production of domestic broad - leaf pulp this week will be about 205,000 tons, and the production of chemical mechanical pulp will be about 200,000 tons [23]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp last week was 79.59%, up 2.06% from the previous week, while that of chemical mechanical pulp was 84.11%, down 0.98% [26]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In April 2025, the domestic pulp production was 1.9997 million tons, a decrease of 213,300 tons (or 9.64%) compared with the previous month. The production of wood pulp, broad - leaf pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp all decreased [28]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization**: In April 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 69.22%, down 12.37% from the previous month, and that of chemical mechanical pulp was 83.62%, down 0.74%. The production of bamboo pulp and sugarcane pulp also decreased slightly [33]. - **Production Gross Margin**: In April 2025, the production gross margin of broad - leaf pulp was 1,021.81 yuan/ton, a decrease of 278.25 yuan/ton (or 21.4%) compared with the previous month and a significant year - on - year decrease. The production gross margin of chemical mechanical pulp was - 225.45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.84 yuan/ton compared with the previous month [34]. - **Pulp Imports**: In March 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.2491 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons (or 0.9%) compared with the previous month and an increase of 79,000 tons (or 2.50%) year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to March was 9.64 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons (or 5%) year - on - year [37]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 278,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (or 0.36%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 62.9%, up 0.2% [40]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: In the cultural paper market last week, the copperplate paper production was 74,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons (or 3.9%), and the capacity utilization rate was 54.6%, down 2.5%. The offset paper production was 201,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (or 0.5%), and the capacity utilization rate was 56.3%, up 0.2% [44]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: In the packaging paper market last week, the production of white cardboard, whiteboard paper, corrugated paper, and boxboard paper all decreased, and their capacity utilization rates also declined to varying degrees [47][50]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: In the tissue paper market, most prices remained stable, while some decreased slightly. In the cultural paper market, the prices of double - offset paper and double - copper paper decreased. In the whiteboard paper and white cardboard markets, prices were weak, and in the boxboard paper and corrugated paper markets, prices remained stable [51][54][56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In April 2025, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tissue paper, white cardboard, and double - offset paper decreased, while that of copperplate paper increased slightly. The actual domestic pulp consumption also decreased [59][62][65]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Last week, the overall port inventory showed a downward trend. The inventory of mainstream ports was 2.035 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (or 3.05%) compared with the previous week. The inventory of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and Tianjin Port all decreased [69][72]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 320,600 tons, an increase of 9,338 tons (or 3.0%) compared with the previous week. The warehouse receipts in Shandong increased, with significant changes in some warehouses [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In May, the macro environment is changing. With the repair of overseas equity risk appetite, the boost of domestic macro - policies, and the marginal mitigation of tariff disturbances, the RMB exchange rate and the domestic equity market are likely to remain strong. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies. The CSI 300 Index has support at 3600 - 3700 and resistance at 4000 - 4100 [2][18] Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the index oscillated upward with all sectors closing higher. By May 9, the CSI 300 fell 0.36%, the SSE 50 fell 0.84%, the CSI 500 rose 0.46%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.50%. IF fell 0.55%, IH fell 1.01%, IC rose 0.35%, and IM rose 0.59%. The net short positions of IF and IC held by the top 20 institutional members decreased, while those of IH and IM increased [1][4] - **Liquidity and Capital**: By May 9, the overnight Shibor rate dropped 26 basis points, and DR007 dropped 25.77 basis points. The inter - bank market interest rate declined marginally. The net outflow of funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 115.282 billion, with the main board having a net outflow of 75.083 billion and the GEM having a net outflow of 25.099 billion. The margin trading balance increased by about 17.394 billion. Foreign capital data was suspended [4][5] Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In April, CPI continued to be under pressure with deflationary pressure remaining. Food CPI rebounded, non - food CPI declined, and optional consumption demand was weak. PPI of production and living materials continued to decline, indicating weak manufacturing demand. The Politburo meeting emphasized more active macro - policies. After the May Day holiday, reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were implemented. Although the Q1 economy recovered better than expected, the Q2 economy faces significant downward pressure [13][15] Views and Strategies - Overseas, the US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment. The US economy showed resilience, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Earnings reports and trade negotiations supported the US stock market. Domestically, the index adjustment in April digested negative impacts. In May, macro - policies provided support, and market risk appetite is expected to gradually recover. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies [17][18]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a polyester weekly report from Zhengxin Futures, dated May 12, 2025, focusing on the PTA and MEG markets [2] - It analyzes the cost, supply, demand, and inventory aspects of the polyester industry chain and provides investment strategies and key points to watch [6] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - PTA is expected to have a warm and oscillating trend in the short - term due to strong raw material PX performance and continuous de - stocking, despite some relief in the tight supply - demand pattern [6] - MEG is likely to continue its rebound in the short - term as the supply - demand pattern is favorable with expected declines in both domestic production and imports and high polyester开工率 [6] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Upstream Industry Analysis - **Market Review**: International oil prices fell due to OPEC+ increasing production and positive signals from US - Iran negotiations. PX had a narrow - range repair due to poor cost support, continuous de - stocking of downstream PTA, low processing fees, and declining capacity utilization. As of May 9, Asian PX closed at $786/ton CFR China, up $40/ton from April 30 [18] - **PX开工率**: The weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 81.94%, a 4.5% increase from last week. Some devices had restarts, but there were also load - reducing situations such as catalyst replacement and planned maintenance [21] - **PX Processing Fees**: As of May 9, the PX - naphtha price difference was $216.7/ton, up $34.42/ton from April 30. Low previous processing fees and non - planned load reduction promoted the repair of processing fees [23] 4.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: After the holiday, PTA opened slightly lower, then the international oil price rebounded, and with supply reduction from device maintenance and a warming commodity sentiment, the PTA price center strengthened. As of May 9, the PTA spot price was 4,720 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 + 155 [26] - **PTA Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate dropped to 74.48%, a 2.53% decrease from the previous week. In May, there are more planned device maintenance and some planned restarts, with an expected decline in capacity utilization [30] - **Supply - Demand Balance and Processing Fees**: Multiple device maintenance led to supply reduction and continuous de - stocking of the balance sheet, causing a significant increase in PTA processing fees. Next week, with device restarts, processing fees are expected to decline slightly [33] - **Inventory Expectation**: In May, with many PTA device maintenance plans and a co - existence of maintenance and restart in the polyester end, the supply - demand will continue the de - stocking pattern [34][36] 4.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Affected by the sharp drop in crude oil during the holiday, MEG opened lower after the holiday. With the improvement of the macro - situation, the market rebounded from the low level and fluctuated around 4,300 yuan/ton. As of May 9, the closing price in Zhangjiagang was 4,300 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,390 yuan/ton [39] - **MEG Capacity Utilization**: The total domestic MEG capacity utilization rate this week was 63.46%, a 0.47% increase from the previous week. There are multiple device maintenance and new device start - up plans in May, with most restarts concentrated around the end of the month [42] - **Port Inventory**: As of May 8, the total MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China was 69.2 tons, an increase of 1.6 tons from May 6. The arrival was okay, but the shipment was dull, leading to a slight increase in inventory [47] - **Production Profits**: Due to the slight increase in the MEG price and different declines in raw material prices, the sample profits of all MEG production processes increased. As of May 9, the profit of naphtha - based MEG was - $105.8/ton, up $19.55/ton from last week; the coal - based profit was - 203.58 yuan/ton, up 43.32 yuan/ton from last week [50] 4.4 Downstream Demand Analysis - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average polyester capacity utilization rate was 91.49%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week. Although some devices increased their loads, the overall production and capacity utilization declined slightly due to previous maintenance [53] - **Polyester Production**: In May, with a co - existence of maintenance and restart and a higher restart capacity than the maintenance capacity, the monthly polyester production is expected to increase slightly [56] - **Capacity Utilization of Different Products**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 92%, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week; that of polyester staple fiber was 86.94%, a 0.26% increase; that of fiber - grade polyester chips was 85.75%, a 2.99% decrease [59] - **Polyester Product Inventory**: After the holiday, the market trading was average, and the finished - product inventory of polyester filament factories gradually accumulated [60] - **Polyester Cash Flow**: With the expected increase in the cost side, the polyester cash flow may be further compressed, with local cash flow repair for some products and compression for DTY [63] - **Weaving Industry**: As of May 8, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 60.82%, a 5.73% increase from the previous period. The average order days of terminal weaving were 10.17 days, an increase of 0.48 days from last week. However, foreign trade orders were sporadic, and there is a risk of a decline in the starting rate in the future [67] 4.5 Polyester Industry Chain Fundamental Summary - **Cost Side**: International oil prices fell, and PX had a narrow - range repair due to factors such as downstream de - stocking and low processing fees [69] - **Supply Side**: The PTA capacity utilization rate decreased, and the MEG capacity utilization rate increased slightly [69] - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the weaving starting rate increased, but the order situation was not optimistic [69] - **Inventory**: PTA maintained a tight supply - demand balance, and MEG port inventory increased slightly [69]