1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided in the reports. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each metal variety, such as "high - level oscillation" for gold, "wide - range adjustment" for silver, "buy on dips" for copper, etc. [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The reports analyze multiple metals including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate. The core views are based on factors like economic data, trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels. For example, gold is supported by long - term de - dollarization and global asset re - allocation, while copper is affected by global supply shortages and trade policies. [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Metal Variety Gold - **Core View**: High - level oscillation. Long - term strategic allocation value persists due to international order disruption and de - dollarization. [1] - **Price Range**: [766 - 800] [1] - **Market Performance**: Last week, the outer - market gold declined continuously, but yesterday it basically recovered the previous losses. [2] - **Basic Logic**: US economic recession risk rises as the Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3% due to surging imports and weak consumption. However, strong non - farm payroll data reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged as trade negotiations are still uncertain, and global asset re - allocation and fiscal - monetary easing will support gold. [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term sentiment is slack, but can participate after stabilization. Long - term logic remains intact. [3] Silver - **Core View**: Wide - range adjustment. It is affected by gold and base metals, and currently in a large oscillation range. [1] - **Price Range**: [8100 - 8380] [1] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat it with an oscillation mindset within the current range. [3] Copper - **Core View**: Buy on dips. The copper concentrate shortage persists, and domestic inventory is decreasing. Be vigilant against soft squeeze - out risks. [1] - **Price Range**: SHFE copper [77000, 78500]; LME copper [9000, 9500] dollars/ton [1][5] - **Market Performance**: During the May Day holiday, LME copper rebounded in a V - shape, with an overall increase of 0.3%. [4] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is disrupted, and processing fees are at new lows. Domestic electrolytic copper production is increasing year - on - year but decreasing month - on - month. Global copper inventory is flowing to the US, and domestic inventory is decreasing, with a risk of soft squeeze - out. [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the easing of macro - sentiment, buy on dips near the 77,000 mark. Long - term optimism remains due to the global copper shortage. [5] Zinc - **Core View**: Sell on rebounds. Zinc supply is increasing while demand is weak in the long - term. [1] - **Price Range**: SHFE zinc [22300, 22900]; LME zinc [2580, 2680] dollars/ton [1][7] - **Market Performance**: During the May Day holiday, LME zinc first declined and then rebounded, with an overall decline of 0.7%. [6] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to increase, and domestic smelter raw material supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weakening as the peak season ends, and the steel market is sluggish. [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds in the short - term. Seize short - selling opportunities in the long - term. [7] Aluminum - **Core View**: Under pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation after the holiday, and downstream processing enterprises' operating rates are declining. [1] - **Price Range**: [19500 - 20100] [1] - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, while alumina is stabilizing at a low level. [8] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas tariff policy impact is weakening. Domestic inventory is decreasing, but downstream demand is weakening. For alumina, supply - demand surplus is temporarily alleviated, and inventory is at a high level. [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly buy on dips for SHFE aluminum, focusing on the terminal peak - season performance. Alumina is expected to be relatively weak. [9] Nickel - **Core View**: Under pressure. Indonesian nickel ore cost increases support the price, but domestic inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory is also at a high level. [1] - **Price Range**: [120000 - 127000] [11] - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then declines. [10] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - environment impact is weakening. Indonesian nickel ore cost increases support the price, but domestic refined nickel production is high, and inventory is at a high level. Stainless steel inventory reduction faces resistance, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see, focusing on inventory changes. [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Bearish in May. Supply - demand remains loose, inventory is accumulating, and ore prices are declining. [1] - **Price Range**: [65000, 66500] [1] - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 opened slightly lower, rose and then fell, hitting a new low. [12] - **Industrial Logic**: In May, supply is sufficient as salt - lake lithium production enters the peak season, and overseas lithium ore shipments increase. Demand shows no seasonal increase, and tariff policies affect exports. Costs are decreasing as ore prices approach last year's lows. [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Weak operation, sell on rebounds. [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the float glass market faced dual pressures of "weak reality + weak expectation", with the price center continuing to decline. Macroscopically, there was no clear incremental policy information from the Politburo meeting in April, and the Sino - US trade war was at a stalemate. Although market risk appetite had somewhat recovered, tariff concerns remained, and the macro - sentiment was still cautious. Fundamentally, glass production and daily melting volume remained stable at a low level, with limited expectation of supply reduction. After the cost decreased, manufacturers' cold - repair plans slowed down, and the supply side could not effectively support the glass. Demand showed seasonal improvement, but the number of days of downstream deep - processing orders was significantly lower than the same period. The decline of the real estate industry narrowed but was still in the negative range, and the market demand expectation was weak. Upstream glass enterprises re - accumulated inventory, and under the pressure of medium - level inventory, the rebound of the futures market was suppressed to some extent. In the medium - to - long term, the annual supply of glass showed a downward trend, and demand had periodic increases. Prices would fluctuate significantly with changes in fundamentals. It was recommended that the industry seize the opportunity of high - level hedging. Attention should be paid to global market risk appetite, downstream production and sales, and domestic hedging policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: As of April 29, the FG2509 contract closed at 1,234 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of - 9.4% [5]. - **Spot Market**: As of April 29, the monthly change range of spot prices was between - 2.3% and + 3.2% [5]. - **Basis**: In April, spot glass quotes showed regional differentiation, with the national average price increasing by 10 yuan/ton. The futures market was weak, driving the basis to strengthen. The basis of the main FG509 contract in Hubei was 68, and the basis rate was 5.6% [8]. - **Spread**: The spread of the FG05 - 09 contract was - 44 points, with the near - month contract weaker than the far - month contract. The spread of the FG09 - 01 contract was - 50 points, showing a pattern of near - month weakness and far - month strength. The glass showed a contango structure, with the near - month contract at par, and the reality was weak but the space was limited. The spread between soda ash and the glass 09 contract was 242 points, the same as on March 20 and 50 points wider than on April 20 [11][13]. 3.2 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization**: In April, the capacity utilization rate decreased and was lower than the same period last year. The current start - up rate of the float glass industry was 75.42%, unchanged from the previous month and - 9.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 78.41%, - 0.62% month - on - month and - 7.327% year - on - year [16]. - **Daily Melting Volume**: Currently, the daily melting volume of float glass was 157,200 tons, - 0.79% month - on - month and - 9.8% year - on - year. The monthly average daily output was 158,200 tons. It was estimated that the glass output in April was 4.74 million tons ( - 3.1% month - on - month and - 9.3% year - on - year) [19]. - **Cold - repair Loss**: In April, the daily average loss of float glass was 42,400 tons. It was estimated that the maintenance loss in April was 1.27 million tons ( - 3.6% month - on - month and + 46.8% year - on - year) [21]. 3.3 Demand Side - **Deep - processing Orders**: As of mid - April, the average number of days of orders for national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, + 13.4% month - on - month and - 17.7% year - on - year. The performance of deep - processing orders varied. Some enterprises reported no obvious improvement compared with March and were lower than the same period last year. Currently, scattered orders maintained production, while some orders increased, especially in South China, Northeast China, Northwest China, and Southwest China, with little change in East China, North China, and Central China. As of April 25, 2025, the start - up rate of Chinese LOW - E glass sample enterprises was 46.7%, - 13.1 percentage points year - on - year [27]. - **Real Estate Demand**: From January to March 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in real estate sales area, new construction area, completion area, and development funds sources were - 3.0% ( + 2.1% month - on - month), - 24.4% ( + 5.2% month - on - month), - 14.3% ( + 1.3% month - on - month), and - 3.6% ( + 13.4% month - on - month) respectively. The decline in real estate sales, completion, and funds sources narrowed [30]. 3.4 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: Currently, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 65.473 million heavy boxes, - 2.3% month - on - month and + 9.25% year - on - year. The inventory days were 29.4 days, 0.8 days less than in March and 4.8 days more than the same period last year [35]. - **Shahe Area Inventory**: Currently, the social inventory in the Shahe area was 3.6 million heavy boxes, - 21.7% month - on - month and the same as the same period last year. The replenishment of medium - level traders slowed down, and the inventory of upstream enterprises accumulated [39]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Currently, the cost of petroleum coke - based production was 1,208 yuan/ton, + 4.5% month - on - month and - 1.47% year - on - year; the cost of coal - based production was 1,067 yuan/ton, - 2.11% month - on - month and - 18.55% year - on - year; the cost of natural gas - based production was 1,503 yuan/ton, - 2.02% month - on - month and - 12.11% year - on - year [44]. - **Profit**: Currently, the production profit of petroleum coke - based production was - 38.35 yuan/ton, - 18.11 yuan/ton month - on - month; the production profit of coal - based production was 145 yuan/ton, + 56.45 yuan/ton month - on - month; the production profit of natural gas - based production was - 153 yuan/ton, + 38.47 yuan/ton month - on - month [47]. 3.6 Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: The new main 09 contract reached around 1,080, falling near the dynamic coal - based cost. Dynamically track the suppression of the 20 - day moving average, and 1,150 became the watershed between bulls and bears [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: The spread of the glass 9 - 1 contract was currently around - 50, and the market was in a back structure. Reverse arbitrage could still be participated in [3]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Currently, the glass industry chain showed the transmission characteristics of upstream inventory accumulation, medium - level sales stagnation, and downstream weakness. Currently, the inventory of upstream glass enterprises and medium - level traders was higher than the same period. The upstream and medium - level could consider selling hedging around 1,200 - 1,250 when the futures market was at a large premium based on their own spot inventory and sales situation [3].

分析师：何慧 【策略】 单边策略：目前主力09合约关注20日均线压制情况，短期1380成为多空分水岭，盘面围绕联碱成本在1230-1320运行。 套利策略：目前纯碱9-1价差在-10附近，几乎平水，考虑到夏季季节性检修，以及年底天然碱新增产能投产计划，9-1正套参与。 FG-SA09合约价差为-270左右，4月中旬玻璃-纯碱价差走弱，目前仍未止跌迹象，在-320至-360之间再尝试参与多玻璃空纯碱操作。 套保策略：目前碱厂库存绝对高位，上游企业可依据自身库存情况关注09合约在盘面大幅升水现货时，在1400-1450附近卖出套保 机会。下游玻璃企业刚需补库，可在盘面低于现货交割成本时买入套保。 【风险】检修超预期（上行风险）、煤炭及相关燃料走强（上行风险）、重回累库（下行风险）、宏观政策不及预期（下行风险） 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货研究院 时间：2025.04.30 【观点】4月在中美关税政策冲击下，商品市场弱势运行，叠加碱厂检修装置复产，纯碱期现价格联动下行。供应方面，碱厂5月检 修计划增多，市场存供应缩 ...

技术分析看黑色月报： 震荡走低小阴线，虽有反复势难改 黑色研究团队： 李海蓉 Z0015849 陈为昌 Z0019850 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货 时间：2025.04.28 目录 C o n t e n t s 1 螺纹低开阴锤头，前低一线有反复 2 铁矿震荡小阴线，破位下行是关键 3 双焦继续下跌势，焦炭阴星煤阴线 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 黑色技术分析月报要点： 【黑链指数】黑链指数代表了黑色整体走势，黑色月度上看报收小阴线，减仓放量，连续三个小阴线延续跌势，形成"三个红小兵" 的组合，且本月波幅及成交同步扩大，为推进信号，后市仍有下跌潜能。只是本月有减仓的行为，主要是交割月前一个月移仓换月、 散户退场以及短线价格反弹造成。 【螺纹加权】螺纹加权月线是一个新低阴锤头，减仓缩量，连续三个月以阴线报收，有三个红小兵之嫌。当月走势则是低开、震荡走 低，探底回升。整体呈现二次探底，在前低受支撑的状态，这也是继上个月破位下行，本月继续走低但有反抽的正常走势，从另一个 角度看的话，虽有反复，但整体走势已经进入下跌走势。 【铁矿加权】铁矿加权本月继上月低开低走小阴线，本月高开震 ...

0 1 观点摘要 0 2 宏观经济 0 3 盘面情况 0 4 供应和需求 0 5 总结和展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 观点摘要 01 沪铜月度报告 关税风暴中的铜，警惕库存危机 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-04-30 目录 Contents ➢ 特朗普关税政策反复无常暴露了美国纸老虎的本质，市场预测关税对全球经济影响将在5月逐渐显现，如果 后续中美对抗继续螺旋升级，全球经济衰退预期或再次重演，而在关税成本暴涨下，美国二次通胀概率大 增，降低美联储降息预期，美国6月国债兑付危机逼近，市场恐慌情绪或再次出现，届时市场风险资产或泥 沙俱下，铜将再次承压，但同时美国铜进口关税悬而未决，刺激贸易商抽干全球铜库存，要警惕国内铜库 存骤降带来的逼仓风险，铜深跌的可能性较小，短期回调蓄力后反而会弹的更高。 ➢ 短期建议铜前期多单逐渐止盈兑现，落袋为安，轻仓或者空仓过节。五一假期后，关注宏观经济数据指引， 若经济数据低于预期，中美对抗加剧，铜或二次探底，可等待铜价企稳后回调逢低再入场，若中美对抗缓 和，铜库存去化加速，铜重心或缓慢上移。中长期看，中美博弈进入新阶段，全球铜矿紧 ...

Report Title - PVC Monthly Report: Seasonal De-stocking Phase, Focus on Low-Valuation Recovery Market [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In May, it is the peak season for seasonal maintenance. Pay attention to the low-valuation recovery market driven by policy expectations. The supply and demand of the fundamentals will be weak, inventory may continue to decline, and spot prices are likely to rise rather than fall. If there are real estate-related stimulus policies in May, the upward elasticity of the market will be higher than the downward elasticity. Strategically, pay attention to subsequent macro-policy changes and the intensity of spring maintenance, and choose the opportunity to go long on dips [4] Summary by Directory This Month's Overview - **Market Review**: This month, the V2509 fluctuated in the range of [4901, 5273]. The weak macro sentiment dominated the market trend, and the price center significantly moved down. The cost support of chlor-alkali integration improved. The overall profit in the northwest remained at a neutral level. The export continued to exchange volume for price, driving the social inventory to decline for 7 consecutive weeks. The Formosa Plastics quotation in May was flat, slightly better than market expectations [3] Next Month's Outlook - **Seasonal Maintenance Peak**: Multiple sets of devices such as Tianchen Chemical and Xinjiang Yihua are planned for maintenance. The supply is expected to shrink. The BIS certification is approaching, and exports may be under pressure. Pay attention to whether maintenance can drive further effective de-stocking of inventory [4] - **Policy Expectations**: The domestic real estate demand is still weak, but the market's sensitivity to policies has significantly increased. If there are real estate-related stimulus policies in May, the upward elasticity of the market will be higher than the downward elasticity [4] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to subsequent macro-policy changes and the intensity of spring maintenance, and choose the opportunity to go long on dips. The V2505 is expected to fluctuate in the range of [4800, 5150] [4] Balance Sheet - **Capacity and Utilization**: In the first quarter, Xinpu Chemical's 500,000-ton capacity was put into production. In the second quarter, pay attention to the commissioning progress of multiple sets of devices such as Qingdao Gulf and Wanhua. The overall capacity utilization rate showed a narrow upward trend [5][6] - **Supply and Demand**: The production and export volume increased year-on-year, and the apparent consumption decreased year-on-year. The inventory showed a downward trend [5] Valuation - **Absolute Price**: The absolute price is at a low level year-on-year [8] - **Basis**: The basis is higher than the same period last year [10] - **Spread**: The 5-9 spread is biased towards positive arbitrage, and the term structure maintains a Contango structure [16] Supply - **Spring Maintenance**: The intensity of spring maintenance was insufficient, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. Next week, the overall supply is expected to increase [19][21] - **May Maintenance Plan**: Multiple enterprises such as Tianchen Chemical and Xinjiang Yihua have maintenance plans in May, and the supply is expected to shrink [22] Macroeconomy - **PMI**: In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 1.4 percentage points, falling below the boom-bust line again after 2 months [23] - **Industrial Profits**: From January to February 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the total profits of industrial enterprises was -0.3%; among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the total profits of the manufacturing industry was +4.8%, and enterprise profits improved marginally [25] - **PPI and CPI**: In March 2025, the PPI was -2.5% year-on-year, remaining in the negative range for 30 consecutive months; the CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, negative for two consecutive months, and there is still overall deflationary pressure [27] Domestic Demand - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The downstream operating rate increased by 0.07 percentage points month-on-month but was at a low level year-on-year [28] - **Real Estate Data**: From January to March 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rates of real estate new construction, construction, completion, and commercial housing sales areas were -24.4%, -9.5%, -14.3%, and -3.0% respectively. The decline in new construction, completion, and sales areas narrowed, while the decline in construction area widened [34] - **Commercial Housing Transaction Area**: The commercial housing transaction area was weak [35] Exports - **Export Volume**: From January to March 2025, the cumulative domestic PVC export volume was 980,000 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 56%, maintaining high-speed growth [43] - **BIS Policy**: The original PVC import BIS policy that expired on December 24 was extended by six months to June 24, 2025 [43] Inventory - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks [44] - **Factory Inventory**: The factory inventory increased slightly [44] - **Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The warehouse receipt inventory increased continuously in April, and the delivery volume decreased compared with last year [46] Profit - **Northwest Chlor-alkali Integration**: The profit of the northwest chlor-alkali integration device is acceptable [48] Upstream Industry Chain - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as lanthanum carbon are at a low level year-on-year and remain stable [50][54] - **Caustic Soda Industry Chain**: The factory inventory of caustic soda is at a high level year-on-year, and the spot price has declined [56] Position - **09 Contract Position**: The position of the 09 contract has increased to more than 90,000 lots [60] - **Net Position Data**: As of April 29, the short position strength was slightly stronger, with 51% of the short position and 49% of the long position [64]

20250430棉系月报： 国内植棉进入苗期 关注后市关税政策调整 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 时间：2025年4月30日 周度综述：摘要 | | | | | | | 棉花供需平衡表(4月) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标(万吨) | | | 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 | | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (3月) | 2024/25 (4月) | 月度调整 | 年度同比 | | | 中国 | 597.7 | 644.5 | 583.5 | 668.4 | 595.4 | 691.2 | 696.6 | 5.4 | 101.2 | | | 印度 | 620.5 | 598.7 | 529.1 | 572.6 | 553.0 | 544.3 | 544.3 | 0.0 | -8.7 | | | 巴西 | 283 | 300 | 235.6 | 255.2 | 317.2 | ...

Report Title - Iron Ore Monthly Report: Supply-demand structure weakens, ore prices fluctuate weakly [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In May, the global iron ore supply and demand are both strong, and the static supply and demand are relatively loose. Prices will fluctuate weakly [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - In April, the spot and futures prices fluctuated weakly. As of April 29, the futures price of the main contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton month-on-month [4] Supply Side - The shipments of the four major mines will increase in May, with an estimated month-on-month increase of 625000 tons [5][29][36] - Non-mainstream mines are estimated to ship 40.3 million tons in May, an increase of about 30000 tons [5][32][36] - Domestic mine production is expected to reach 21 million tons in May, a month-on-month increase of 60000 tons [5][35][36] - The overall global supply in May will increase by about 7.15 million tons month-on-month [5][36] Demand Side - Domestically, according to the Steel Union's statistical caliber, the estimated national pig iron output in April was 72.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. In May, the blast furnace hot metal output is expected to be 74.4 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.14 million tons. The demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will increase by 3.5 million tons [5][15][21] - Overseas, the daily average pig iron output outside China is generally stable. It is estimated that the pig iron output in May will decrease by about 30000 tons month-on-month, and the demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will decrease by about 50000 tons [5][18][21] - Globally, the demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will increase by about 3 million tons in May [5][21] Steel Mill Conditions - At the end of April, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, a year-on-year increase of 4.60 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a year-on-year increase of 6.07 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a year-on-year increase of 6.93 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4435 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 810 tons [9] - In April, the profitability of long and short process steel mills remained stable, and the production enthusiasm was fair; short process steel mills remained in the red, and the production enthusiasm was not strong [12] Inventory - At the end of April, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 143 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 200 tons. It is expected to accumulate in May [37] - Steel mills replenish inventory on demand, and the inventory fluctuates within a narrow range [39]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In April, international oil prices tumbled significantly under the impact of tariff disturbances and OPEC+'s official production increase, with the oil price center shifting downwards. Tariff policies have become the main uncertainty factor in the macro - economy, and the IMF recently downgraded the global GDP growth rate. Against this background, the incremental demand for crude oil is insufficient. OPEC+ officially started increasing production in April, and some member countries will implement compensatory production cuts, but the implementation is difficult. There is no sign of a driver to reverse the crude oil trend, and the oil price will continue to be weak. It is estimated that the WTI will fluctuate between $55 - 65 per barrel, and the trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies. The focus ranges are WTI [55, 65] for the outer market and SC [420, 500] for the inner market [8][95]. Group 3: Summaries by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The international crude oil futures price has fluctuated due to various factors such as sanctions, supply shortages, weather, and OPEC+ policies from December 2024 to April 2025 [6]. 2. Macroeconomics - The People's Bank of China will consider timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity. The IMF downgraded the 2025 global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8% and predicted 3% for 2026. US tariff measures will cause a short - term slowdown in the global economy. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI is on the rise, while the US's is falling. China's domestic economy is relatively optimistic, with consumption driving growth, and the LPR remains stable [8][16][21]. 3. Supply and Inventory - **Supply**: In March 2025, OPEC's crude oil production decreased by 7.8 barrels per day to 2678 barrels per day. The US's crude oil production remained stable at 1346 barrels per day as of April 18, and the number of rigs increased by 1. Russia's crude oil production is expected to be stable in Q2 - Q3 2025 and then increase [33][42][46]. - **Demand**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA estimated the 2025 global crude oil demand to be 10364, 10505, and 10360 barrels per day respectively. China's March crude oil imports increased year - on - year, while the US and European refineries' crude oil processing volumes decreased year - on - year. India's crude oil demand is rising [50][51][53]. - **Inventory**: As of April 18, the US's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 20 barrels to 44310 barrels, and the strategic reserve increased by 50 barrels to 39748 barrels. The OECD's total inventory decreased. European crude oil inventory is at a low level, and the US's refined oil inventory is being depleted [9][62][71]. 4. Spreads and Positions - **Spreads**: The WTI forward curve is in a Back structure, and the inter - month spread is decreasing. As of April 29, the SC - WTI spread was $5.71 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was $1.23 per barrel. The refined oil cracking spread remained stable [78][82][85]. - **Positions**: As of April 22, the net long positions of WTI and Brent funds increased. As of April 29, the inner - market SC warehouse receipt volume increased but was at a low level, and the virtual - to - real ratio was high [88][91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, soybean meal is expected to show a trend of first weakening and then strengthening, mainly in a large - range volatile market under the influence of increased domestic supply, inventory accumulation of soybean meal, and speculation about US soybean weather. If the US soybean weather remains favorable and there is no definite news about the US biodiesel policy, soybean meal will continue to operate weakly [5]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to be under pressure for adjustment due to the listing of domestic new rapeseed and the decline in soybean meal prices. However, after the holiday, the impact of the new - season rapeseed listing will gradually ease. Supported by the strong international price of Canadian rapeseed, the adjustment space of rapeseed meal is expected to be limited. In May, it is also expected to be first weak and then strong [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Soybean Market - US soybean planting progress reached 8% this week, higher than 7% in the same period last year, and the rainfall outlook in the next 15 days is smooth, with a good planting prospect. South American soybean production is basically a foregone conclusion of a bumper harvest, with Brazil having a good harvest and Argentina entering the harvest stage, and the latest estimated yield of Argentine soybeans is 49 million tons [4]. - The USDA April report slightly favored the bearish side. It maintained South American and US soybean yields, adjusted non - major soybean - producing countries' yields, and global soybean import, export, and crushing data, slightly increasing the global soybean ending inventory by 1.06 million tons to 122 million tons. For US soybeans, the crushing volume increased month - on - month, resulting in a slight decrease in the ending inventory [15]. - The planting area of US soybeans in 2025 is expected to be 83.495 million acres, lower than market expectations and a 4% year - on - year decrease compared to 2024 [19]. - As of the week of April 20, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than market expectations. However, according to CPC data, there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the Great Lakes region in May [19]. 3.2 Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Supply and Inventory - In April, China entered the stage of concentrated supply of South American soybeans. Although port and soybean inventories have risen for three consecutive weeks, due to the slow customs clearance of soybeans at ports and low oil mill operating rates, soybean meal inventories are at a low level. After the May Day holiday, soybean meal supply is likely to gradually ease [5]. - As of April 25, the national port soybean inventory was 5.2028 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 4.5948 million tons, both increasing compared to the previous week and the same period last year [25]. - As of April 25, the weekly soybean meal inventory was 74,800 tons, a significant decrease compared to the previous week and the same period last year. The physical inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 4.35 days, less than 7.23 days in the same period last year [30]. Consumption - In the first quarter, the pig inventory increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the inventories of eggs and meat poultry were generally stable, with an optimistic outlook for feed consumption [5]. Market Outlook - The market focus has shifted to the concentrated arrival of soybeans and US soybean planting. Before the holiday, be cautious about short - selling operations. In May, soybean meal is expected to be affected by multiple factors and show a volatile trend [5]. 3.3 Global Rapeseed Market - Canadian rapeseed has strong domestic and export demand, and it is expected to exceed the annual export forecast. The price of Canadian rapeseed has risen to the pre - trade - war level. The planting area of new - season Canadian rapeseed has decreased, but the yield has increased slightly year - on - year due to the increase in yield per unit [7]. - The estimated yield of rapeseed in the EU region in the new season is stable at around 19 million tons, and the annual import data of rapeseed has increased year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions [7]. 3.4 Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Market Supply and Inventory - Due to the increase in the price of Canadian rapeseed, the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in China has dropped significantly, which may lead to a decrease in the enthusiasm for future rapeseed imports and is favorable for the long - term price expectation. Currently, the commercial inventory of rapeseed meal in China is relatively high, and there is still short - term supply pressure [8]. - As of April 25, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 255,000 tons, and the monthly crushing volume was 317,000 tons, both lower than the same period last year [42]. - As of April 29, the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills was 9,700 tons, and the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions across the country was 715,000 tons, showing different trends of increase and decrease compared to the previous week [46]. Consumption - The opening of the aquaculture season is beneficial to the consumption expectation of rapeseed meal. The substitution consumption of rapeseed meal has been opened up due to the expansion of the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference [8]. Market Outlook - After the holiday, the impact of the new - season rapeseed listing will gradually ease. Supported by the strong international price of Canadian rapeseed, the adjustment space of rapeseed meal is expected to be limited. In May, it is expected to be first weak and then strong [9]. 3.5 Feed Market - From January to February 2025, the national industrial feed production was 49.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The prices of feed products decreased significantly year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 47.2%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 13.3% [54]. 3.6 Livestock and Poultry Breeding Market - In the first quarter, the national pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 1% [57]. - In April, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 145.34 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 58.8 yuan per head, showing different trends compared to March [64]. - In April, the egg - laying hen breeding profit rebounded month - on - month, reaching 2.26 yuan per bird as of April 24. The white - feather broiler breeding profit decreased month - on - month, reaching - 0.12 yuan per bird as of April 27 [67].