Zhong Hui Qi Huo
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中辉期货热卷早报-20250613
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 02:48
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量及表观需求继续下降,库存去化良好。铁水产量仍然处于高位, | | | | 钢坯需求良好,铁水转向明显。宏观情绪改善带来的提振有限,同时原料 | | 螺纹钢 | | 端双焦仍存在一定出货压力。现实基本面尚未出现明显改善,中期重回区 | | | | 间运行,短期表现或偏弱。【2930,2970】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷需求继续回落,近期已低于去年同期,库存延续小幅增加的状态,供 | | | | 需层面偏弱。出口后期存在回落可能,同时黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压 | | | | 制行情表现。中期区间运行,短期表现偏弱。【3050,3090】 | | 铁矿石 | 震荡偏弱 | 基本面看,需求端铁水产量再降,后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 供给端发到货双增,港口钢厂库存双增。整体供需结构偏弱。单边空单持 | | | | 有【680,715】 | | 焦炭 | 偏弱震荡 | 独立焦企及钢厂焦炭产量继续下降,供应出现一定收缩,库存环比小幅回 | | | | 落。铁水产量仍在 240 万 ...
中辉期货能化观点-20250612
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:39
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高空 | 地缘升温,油价跳涨,关注高空机会。EIA 最新月报数据显示,原油供给 | | | | 压力逐渐上升;伊核谈判不确定性上升,美国从中东撤离部分人员,中东 | | | | 地缘冲突升温;市场调查数据显示,OPEC 实际产量低于计划量;消费旺 | | | | 季到来,中国原油进口回升。策略:轻仓试空。SC【490-505】 | | | 盘整 | 油价行至压力位,下游化工需求上升,液化气盘整。成本端油价短期受地 | | LPG | | 缘和消费旺季带动,走势偏强,但上行阻力上升;供需双增,炼厂检修逐 | | | | 渐结束,供给量上升,下游化工需求保持平稳,PDH 开工有上升预期。策 | | | | 略:卖出看涨期权。PG【4130-4230】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 原油走强,盘面延续反弹,华北基差为-2(环比+4),停车比例为 13.4%。 | | | | 本周装置重启计划偏多,预计产量增加;社会库存转为累库,农膜需求淡 | | | | 季,下游补库动力不足,后市中游存在继续累库风险。策略:基 ...
中辉有色观点-20250612
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 02:51
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to remain in high-level oscillations. Gold has high strategic allocation value in the long term, and silver's speculative sentiment and financial attributes have been ignited. Copper is advised to take profit on long positions and look for selling hedging opportunities at high levels, with a long - term optimistic outlook. Zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel are expected to face pressure on rebounds, and zinc and nickel are recommended for short - selling opportunities at high levels. For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to short at high levels as the fundamental situation is hard to improve [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: Gold is in a high - level oscillation due to factors such as low US inflation, geopolitical escalation, and increased expectations of US interest rate cuts this year. Silver has seen a return of the gold - silver ratio, and its price has been supported by speculative sentiment and capital flow [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Tariff negotiations between China and the US have reached a framework agreement. The Chinese central bank continues to buy gold, and there are uncertainties in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations. US inflation is low, increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts. In the short term, geopolitical variables are large, and in the long term, the global trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - loose fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, focus on the 765 support level and control positions for long - term investment. For silver, short - term long positions can be continued, but control positions due to its high elasticity [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper opened lower overnight and oscillated downward [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased in May but is expected to decline in June. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and there is a risk of a soft squeeze. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With US inflation lower than expected, long positions in copper should take profit. Speculators should temporarily wait and see, and industrial players should look for selling hedging opportunities at high levels. In the long term, copper is still optimistic. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79500], and for LME copper is [9600, 9800] USD/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Zinc rose overnight but then fell back, oscillating in a narrow range around the integer level [8]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Domestic zinc ore processing fees increased in June. Refined zinc production is expected to increase in June. Downstream demand is weakening, and the operating rate of zinc - related enterprises has declined [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, wait and see. In the long term, take short - selling opportunities at high levels. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [21800, 22400], and for LME zinc is [2600, 2700] USD/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices rebounded in the short term, while alumina prices were under pressure [10]. - **Industry Logic**: The overseas macro - trade environment has eased. The cost of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry decreased in May. Aluminum ingot inventories decreased, while aluminum rod inventories increased. The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises declined, and the terminal is entering the off - season. Overseas bauxite supply is stable, and domestic alumina production capacity has increased, with a slight inventory build - up [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell on short - term rebounds in Shanghai aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices continued to decline, and stainless steel prices were under pressure [12]. - **Industry Logic**: The overseas macro - environment has eased. The shipment of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore has decreased. Domestic refined nickel production decreased slightly, but inventories are still high. Stainless steel consumption has entered the seasonal off - season, and inventory pressure has reappeared [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focusing on downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 125000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2507 continued to reduce positions and rebound, rising more than 1% [13]. - **Industry Logic**: Rumors of Tianqi taking delivery from the futures market have driven up prices, but the fundamentals have not changed much. Supply pressure remains high, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. The inventory of new energy vehicles has reached a three - year high, and only the energy storage sector provides some support. The production of lithium carbonate has recovered rapidly, and the expectation of inventory build - up is increasing [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short at high levels in the range of [60500 - 62500] [14].
中辉期货热卷早报-20250612
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 02:48
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 区间运行 | 宏观情绪有所改善,但对黑色系供需影响有限。螺纹钢自身处于供需双弱 | | | | 的状态,旺盛的出口缓解了高铁水的供应压力,而原料端仍存在一定出货 | | 螺纹钢 | | 压力。现实基本面尚未出现明显改善,情绪性交易退却后,重回区间运行。 | | | | 【2960,3000】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量回升,表观需求回落,库存止降转增,数据偏弱。出口后期存在 | | | | 回落可能,同时黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压制行情表现。宏观氛围转暖, | | | | 但对实际供需影响有限,后市或重回区间运行。【3080,3120】 | | 铁矿石 | 震荡偏弱 | 基本面看,需求端铁水产量再降,后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发到货双增,港口钢厂库存双降。近端铁矿供需结构中性偏弱。区 | | | | 间参与为主,单边空单持有。【680,715】 | | 焦炭 | 震荡运行 | 钢厂开启第三轮提降,焦企利润进一步下降。虽然已出现部分减产现象, 但整体产量仍然较高,开 ...
豆粕日报-20250612
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 02:47
豆粕:资金炒作下的反弹行情 | 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 3047 | 3031 | 16 | 0. 53% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 2967. 14 | 2953. 14 | 14 | 0. 47% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 2900 | 2900 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3237.5 | 3237.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 蒸花粕 | 元/吨 | 2252.5 | 2240 | 12.5 | 0. 56% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3850 | 3850 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1333. 33 | 1333. 33 | 0 | ...
中辉期货热卷早报-20250611
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:46
螺纹钢:宏观情绪有所改善,但对黑色系供需影响有限。螺纹钢自身处于供需双弱的状态, 旺盛的出口缓解了高铁水的供应压力,而原料端仍存在一定出货压力;热卷产量回升,热卷 产量回升,表观需求回落,库存止降转增,数据偏弱。出口后期存在回落可能,同时黑色链 整体过剩的局面持续压制行情表现。宏观氛围转暖,但对实际供需影响有限。 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 宏观情绪有所改善,但对黑色系供需影响有限。螺纹钢自身处于供需双弱 | | | | 的状态,旺盛的出口缓解了高铁水的供应压力,而原料端仍存在一定出货 | | | | 压力。现实基本面尚未出现明显改善,情绪性交易退却后,重回区间运行。 | | | | 【2960,3000】 | | | 区间运行 | 热卷产量回升,表观需求回落,库存止降转增,数据偏弱。出口后期存在 | | 热卷 | | 回落可能,同时黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压制行情表现。宏观氛围转暖, | | | | 但对实际供需影响有限,后市或重回区间运行。【3080,3120】 | | 铁矿石 | 震荡偏弱 | 基本面看,需求端 ...
中辉期货农产品观点-20250610
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 05:48
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term rebound for soybean meal**: With South American soybean production mostly determined, US soybean planting progressing well and future rainfall sufficient, and domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories increasing, the overall fundamental situation is bearish. However, there was a technical rebound, with potential short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Resistance is strong in the 3030 - 3070 yuan range in the next one to two weeks [1][3]. - **Short - term oscillation for rapeseed meal**: Current rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories at oil mills are not under pressure, but high commercial rapeseed meal inventories are bearish for the July contract. Import volume is expected to decrease in the long - term, but Sino - Canadian dialogue may affect market sentiment. The short - term adjustment space is limited [1][7]. - **Short - term rebound and consolidation for palm oil**: Domestic palm oil commercial inventory is low, and imports have improved. The Southeast Asian palm oil inventory accumulation cycle has started. India's import increase and tariff reduction, as well as Malaysia's B20 policy, are positive factors. However, due to the inventory accumulation cycle, the strategy is to sell at high prices [1][9]. - **Short - term strength for cotton**: The US main cotton - growing areas have a moderate excellent - good rate, and future weather is favorable for production. In China, there is an increasing production expectation but the risk of high - temperature disturbances in June. Inventory reduction is faster than expected, but downstream orders are weak, and clothing export prospects have not significantly improved [1][13]. - **Rebound under pressure for red dates**: New - season jujube trees are growing well, but old - crop high inventory remains a problem. Downstream consumption is weak, and the upward driving force for the price is limited [1][15]. - **Weak operation for live pigs**: The long - term supply pressure guided by the number of breeding sows has not improved significantly. In the near - term, both group farms and farmers are increasing the slaughter volume, and the demand is weak. The strategy is to sell on rebounds or conduct inter - month reverse spreads [1][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International situation**: South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started with a progress much higher than last year and the five - year average. Future rainfall is sufficient, and the CPC's June rainfall outlook is favorable [1][3]. - **Domestic situation**: Ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are continuously increasing. As the operation rate rises, soybean meal supply will gradually ease and enter an inventory accumulation cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish. The average monthly import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons. As of June 6, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.462 million tons, and 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons, with a 4.70% increase from the previous week [3]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3019 yuan/ton, up 0.30%. The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but there was a technical rebound. Short - selling opportunities after the rebound can be considered, with resistance in the 3030 - 3070 yuan range in the next one to two weeks [1][2][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory situation**: As of June 6, coastal areas' main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 202,000 tons, down 30,000 tons from the previous week; rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; and unexecuted contracts were 51,000 tons, down 11,000 tons [7]. - **Supply and demand**: Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and new - season rapeseed has been harvested in May. From May to July, rapeseed imports are expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term import volume is expected to be low. Sino - Canadian dialogue may affect market sentiment, and the short - term adjustment space is limited [1][7]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2614 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. Attention should be paid to the risk of subsequent tariff policies [1][4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory situation**: As of June 6, 2025 (Week 23), the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 372,600 tons, up 2.36% from the previous week and down 0.67% from last year [9]. - **International factors**: India's palm oil imports in May are expected to increase by 87% to 600,000 tons, and it has reduced the import tariff on edible oils. Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 30 days of May were strong, and the B20 policy is being promoted [9]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8182 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. It is expected to be bullish at the beginning of this week, but attention should be paid to the adjustment risk after the release of Malaysia's May inventory data. The strategy is to sell at high prices due to the inventory accumulation cycle [1][8][9]. Cotton - **International situation**: The US cotton planting rate is 66%, and about 7% of the cotton - growing areas are affected by drought, which has decreased by 1%. The excellent - good rate is 49%, lower than the same - period level by 12%. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is estimated to be 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% increase year - on - year. India's southwest monsoon has stalled, and Pakistan's sown area has reached 95% of last year's, with a slight risk of production decline [11]. - **Domestic situation**: Xinjiang's cotton seedlings are mostly budding and some are blooming. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage in southern Xinjiang. The cost is expected to decrease slightly. The inventory reduction is fast, but downstream orders are weak, and clothing exports have not significantly improved [12][13]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 13495 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. ICE cotton is expected to oscillate weakly below 70 cents. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 13700 yuan [1][10][13]. Red Dates - **Production situation**: Southern Xinjiang's jujube trees are in the full - bloom stage, and the growth is good. The 36 - sample physical inventory is 106,753 tons, 85 tons higher than the previous week and 4445 tons higher than the same period [15]. - **Market situation**: The supply in the sales area is continuous, and the demand is weak. With the increase in temperature, the demand for dried fruits is expected to decline seasonally [15]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 8910 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to weather - related price fluctuations [1][14][15]. Live Pigs - **Supply situation**: In the short - term, the planned slaughter in June is expected to decrease slightly, but the supply pressure has not significantly improved. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets in May increased, which will bring pressure in Q4. In the long - term, the reduction of breeding sows in April is not significant enough to indicate a turning point in production capacity [18]. - **Demand situation**: Terminal demand is cooling with the rise in temperature, and the support from secondary fattening is weakening [18][19]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13475 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The strategy is to sell on rebounds or conduct inter - month reverse spreads [17][18][19].
中辉有色观点-20250610
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 03:34
中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国通胀预期回落,中国央行连续 7 个月增持黄金,市场关注中美谈判、俄罗 | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 斯报复以及美国通胀。短期不确定性仍然较多,关注风险事件是否再次集中爆 | | | | 发。长期全球尚在秩序重塑途中,黄金战略配置价值高。【765-790】 | | | | 黄金高位调整情况之下,资金关注白银的补涨行情,在基本面支撑的背景之下 | | 白银 | 高位强势 | 金银比价回归,白银冲破此前震荡区间,冲击历史新高,风险偏好上升,资金 | | | | 支撑白银继续上冲,背靠区间上沿等待做多。【8850-9200】 | | | | 美国 5 月通胀预期缓和,美联储降息预期回升,LME 铜库存日度大跌 1 万吨,软挤 | | | | 仓风险走高,宏微共振下,铜再次突破 7 万 9 关口,建议前期铜多单逢高止盈,警 | | 铜 | 强势 | 惕铜高位回落风险,卖出套保把握逢高布局机会,中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区 | | | | 间【78500,80000】 | | 锌 | 弱势 | 国内 ...
中辉期货热卷早报-20250610
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 03:31
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 宏观情绪有所改善,但对黑色系供需影响有限。螺纹钢自身处于供需双弱 | | | | 的状态,旺盛的出口缓解了高铁水的供应压力,而原料端仍存在一定出货 | | | | 压力。现实基本面尚未出现明显改善,情绪性交易退却后,重回区间运行。 | | | | 【2940,2980】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量回升,表观需求回落,库存止降转增,数据偏弱。出口后期存在 | | | | 回落可能,同时黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压制行情表现。宏观氛围转暖, | | | | 但对实际供需影响有限,后市或重回区间运行。【3050,3090】 | | 铁矿石 | 震荡偏弱 | 基本面看,需求端铁水产量再降,后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发到货双增,港口钢厂库存双降。近端铁矿供需结构中性偏弱。区 | | | | 间参与为主,单边空单持有。【680,710】 | | | 震荡运行 | 钢厂开启第三轮提降,焦企利润进一步下降。虽然已出现部分减产现象, 但整体产量仍然较高,开工率处 ...
中辉有色观点-20250609
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 05:52
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level oscillations. The long - term strategic allocation value of gold is high due to the ongoing global order reshaping, while short - term uncertainties are numerous [1]. - Silver will have a strong oscillation. With gold's high - level adjustment, there is a potential for silver to make up for the price increase, but it requires the cooperation of multiple forces to continue rising [1]. - Copper will be in a high - level consolidation. Short - term copper long positions should take profit, and there is a risk of a high - level decline, but the long - term outlook for copper remains positive [1]. - Zinc will have a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, it will be in a low - level oscillation, and in the long - term, it has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, so opportunities for shorting on rallies should be grasped [1]. - Lead and tin and aluminum and nickel will face pressure on rebounds. For lead, new production capacity is increasing supply while consumption is weak; for tin, short - term supply is tight but prices are under pressure after a rebound; for aluminum, inventory is accumulating and consumption is entering the off - season; for nickel, cost support is weakening and downstream inventory is accumulating [1]. - Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate should be shorted on rebounds. For industrial silicon, there are concerns about oversupply; for lithium carbonate, supply pressure is large and demand is in the off - season [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices oscillated at a high level because US employment data was low but consumption data was positive, and the Chinese central bank continued to buy gold, with no concentrated outbreak of systemic risk factors in the short - term [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment and consumption data were mixed. The Chinese central bank continued to increase its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month. There was a potential for Russia to retaliate against Ukraine. In the short - term, geopolitical variables were large, and in the long - term, the trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - loose fiscal and monetary policies remained unchanged, and the bull market was not over [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, pay attention to the support at 765 and control positions for long - term investment. For silver, short - term long positions can wait for an opportunity to enter, relying on the level of 8700 [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated and consolidated at a high level [5]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply was tight. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased in May but was expected to decline in June. COMEX copper was draining global copper inventory, and there was a risk of a soft squeeze. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and overseas Russian copper flowed into domestic ports, causing the premium and spot premium to decline [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the better - than - expected US non - farm employment data and the slight rebound of the US dollar index, it is recommended to take profit on previous copper long positions at high levels. Be vigilant about the risk of a decline. In the long - term, there is confidence in the rise of copper prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the range of [77900, 79200] for Shanghai copper and [9600, 9800] dollars/ton for London copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc was in a low - level consolidation, oscillating weakly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply was expected to be looser. The domestic zinc ore processing fee increased in June. The output of refined zinc decreased in May but was expected to increase in June. Downstream demand weakened, and the start - up rate of zinc - related enterprises decreased, affected by the weak steel demand [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, zinc will be in a low - level consolidation and oscillate weakly. In the long - term, with increasing supply and weak demand, opportunities for shorting on rallies should be grasped. Attention should be paid to the range of [22000, 22600] for Shanghai zinc and [2600, 2700] dollars/ton for London zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina prices declined again [10]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment was uncertain. The cost decreased in May, and inventory changes showed a mixed trend. The demand side entered the off - season. For alumina, the overseas bauxite supply was stable, the operating capacity increased in June, and the inventory accumulated slightly [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices faced pressure on rebounds, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas, the macro - environment was uncertain. The increase in the shipment of Philippine nickel ore and the decrease in Indonesian nickel ore prices weakened cost support. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel was still in an oversupply situation, and the social inventory was relatively high. For stainless steel, it entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure increased [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 125000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 reduced positions for 5 consecutive days and closed slightly higher [13]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply pressure was still large, and although overseas imports decreased, domestic smelters did not significantly reduce production. The terminal demand entered the off - season, and only the energy storage end provided some support. The production of lithium carbonate recovered quickly, and the expectation of inventory accumulation increased, and the sustainability of the short - term rebound was questionable [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds in the range of [60000 - 61500] [14].