| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量及表观需求继续下降，库存去化良好。铁水产量仍然处于高位， | | | | 钢坯需求良好，铁水转向明显。宏观情绪改善带来的提振有限，同时原料 | | | | 端双焦仍存在一定出货压力。现实基本面尚未出现明显改善，中期重回区 | | | | 间运行，短期表现或偏弱。【2960，3000】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷需求继续回落，近期已低于去年同期，库存延续小幅增加的状态，供 | | | | 需层面偏弱。出口后期存在回落可能，同时黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压 | | | | 制行情表现。中期区间运行，短期表现偏弱。【3070，3110】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量再降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 供给端发到货双降，港口钢厂库存双增。整体供需结构好转。近期煤矿环 | | 铁矿石 | 逢高布空 | 保减产，煤价走强，支撑原材料价格。观点：短空减持，畅销，逢高布空 | | | | 【690,720】 | | | | 独立焦企及钢厂焦炭产量继续下降，供应出现一定收 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 | | | | 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存补库有所恢复，但仍有可补库空间，只是积极性预 | | | | 计有所下降。6 月美农报告中性。由于美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本 | | | | 面依然偏空。前日豆粕维持高位整理，市场观望情绪较重，3080 元以上继续追多谨 | | | | 慎，注意仓位及风控管理。主力【3010，3080】 | | 菜粕 | 短期震荡 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。5 月 | | | 至 | 7 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | 应展望压力减轻。端午后国内菜籽上市，豆菜粕现货价差跌破 400 元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to have a strong oscillation. The short - term uncertainty remains high, and it has high strategic allocation value in the long run [1]. - Silver is predicted to have a high - level oscillation, following the characteristics of gold and base metals [1]. - Copper is likely to continue to rebound and oscillate upward, and is still favored in the medium and long term [1]. - Zinc is expected to rebound, but overall it is still weak. There is an opportunity to short at high prices in the long run [1]. - Lead's price rebound is under pressure due to cost support and inventory accumulation [1]. - Tin's price is under pressure after a continuous rebound because of slow复产 and weak smelter start - up [1]. - Aluminum's price is under pressure with weakening overseas disturbances and emerging downstream consumption off - season characteristics [1]. - Nickel's price is weak due to rising overseas shipments and high domestic inventory [1]. - Industrial silicon's price is bearish because of increasing supply and weak downstream demand [1]. - Lithium carbonate's price is bearish due to continuous supply surplus pressure and increasing inventory [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold opened high and closed low as the short - term risk - aversion sentiment declined due to Iran's softening stance [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Iran hopes to end the hostile state, US data is weak, and the long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider making long - term preparations for gold. Control the position of silver due to its high elasticity [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper continued to rebound [4]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight, domestic production is increasing, there are concerns about overseas soft squeeze - out risks, and green copper demand offsets traditional demand shortages [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short - term long positions. Be cautious about risks. Long - term optimism about copper remains [5]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc rebounded in a V - shape and stopped falling to stabilize [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc ore supply is loosening, domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weakening [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see in the short term. Look for opportunities to short at high prices in the long term [8]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and alumina was under pressure [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost is decreasing, inventory is changing, and demand is entering the off - season. For alumina, the supply is in surplus [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [10]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were weak, and stainless steel was under pressure [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel ore supply is increasing, domestic supply is in surplus, and stainless steel inventory is rising [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream consumption [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 increased positions and declined [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply surplus pressure of lithium carbonate remains, and the inventory is expected to increase further [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: High - level oscillation. The core driver has shifted from supply - demand to geopolitics, and the Israel - Iran conflict will dominate oil prices [3][4]. - **LPG**: Bullish in the short - term. The strengthening of upstream crude oil drives up the cost, and the fundamentals are improving marginally [6][8]. - **L**: Bearish rebound. Cost support has improved, but there are risks of continued inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [10][11]. - **PP**: Bearish rebound. Spot high - price transactions are weak, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [13][14]. - **PVC**: Bearish rebound. The cost of ethylene - based plants has increased, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [15]. - **PX**: Cautiously long at low levels. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals are improving in May [16][17]. - **PTA**: Bullish in the short - term but with a weakening fundamental outlook. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weakening [19][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously long at low levels. Supply pressure has eased, and inventory is continuously decreasing [22][23]. Building Materials - **Glass**: Weak and oscillating. Enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory, and the fundamentals are weak [25][27]. - **Soda Ash**: Weakly seeking the bottom. Supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating [28][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: Suppressed by the moving average. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening [31][33]. - **Methanol**: Bullish in the short - term. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, but there are concerns about negative feedback from MTO demand [34] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: International oil prices rose significantly on June 13. WTI rose 4.78%, Brent rose 7.02%, and SC rose 4.74% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is geopolitics. The Israel - Iran conflict is uncertain, and in extreme cases, Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz. Supply is stable, and demand is expected to increase slightly. Inventory data shows a decline in US commercial crude oil inventory [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, and the price range is estimated to be between $55 - 65. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. SC is recommended to focus on the range of [530 - 570] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 13, the PG main contract closed at 4275 yuan/ton, up 3.06%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China all increased [7]. - **Basic Logic**: The strengthening of upstream crude oil drives up the cost. Supply has decreased slightly, demand from downstream chemical industries has increased, and inventory has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the valuation is high. In the short - term, affected by geopolitics, buy put options. PG is recommended to focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] [9]. L - **Market Review**: Cost support has improved, and both futures and spot prices have risen. The North China basis is - 18 (down 17 from the previous period) [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure will decrease next week, but the market is still consuming low - price spot inventory. It is in the traditional off - season, and there is a risk of continued inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are unclear, so reduce short positions. Upstream enterprises can sell for hedging when the basis is negative. L is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: Cost support has improved, and the rebound continues. Spot high - price transactions are weak, and the East China basis is 62 (down 81 from the previous period) [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is weak, and it is in the consumption off - season. Supply is expected to increase in June - July, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions. Downstream enterprises can buy for hedging when the basis is high. PP is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7150] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The cost of ethylene - based plants has increased, and the Changzhou basis is - 109 (down 3 from the previous period) [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic PVC supply has decreased slightly due to maintenance. Demand has weakened in some domestic industries due to the off - season and rainy season. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is insufficient driving force for continuous upward movement. Rebound and go short. V is recommended to focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] [15]. PX - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 6900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6780 yuan/ton (+244). The basis has converged [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas PX device loads have increased, supply pressure has increased, and demand is expected to improve. Inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level. The PXN spread has compressed, and the basis has converged [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the opportunity to go long at low levels. PX is recommended to focus on the range of [6730 - 6880] [18]. PTA - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 5015 yuan/ton (+160), and the TA09 contract closed at 4782 yuan/ton (+162). The basis and monthly spread have strengthened [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Downstream demand is weakening, but inventory is decreasing. Processing fees are high [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the opportunity to go short at high levels. TA is recommended to focus on the range of [4750 - 4880] [21]. MEG - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 4426 yuan/ton (+79), and the EG09 contract closed at 4334 yuan/ton (+100). The basis and monthly spread are strong [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased, and the arrival volume is low, so supply pressure has eased. Downstream demand is weakening, but inventory is decreasing [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to focus on the opportunity to go long at low levels. EG is recommended to focus on the range of [4270 - 4350] [24]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market prices have been reduced, the futures price has fallen under pressure, the basis has widened, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have led to a decrease in market risk appetite. Domestic private credit expansion is blocked, and the demand for glass is shrinking. Enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory, and the fundamentals are weak [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is recommended to focus on the range of [960 - 990], and it is expected to oscillate weakly under the pressure of the 1000 - yuan mark [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been reduced, the futures price has broken through and fallen, the main - contract basis has widened, the number of warehouse receipts has decreased, and the number of valid forecasts has remained unchanged [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The market supply has increased as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Demand is weak, inventory is at a high level, and the cost center has moved down [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is recommended to focus on the range of [1140 - 1180], suppressed by the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages [30]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda has remained stable, the futures price has been weak, the basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The price of liquid chlorine has risen, and some enterprises may postpone maintenance. Supply is expected to increase, and demand from the alumina industry is weakening [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation is provided in the given text. Methanol - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 2439 yuan/ton (+108), and the main 09 - contract closed at 2389 yuan/ton (+99). The basis and monthly spread have changed [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price has risen, but there are concerns about negative feedback from MTO demand. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is limited [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation is provided in the given text.

| 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | | 以色列空袭伊朗事件升级发酵，主推避险情况，尽管美国数据积极，关税谈判 | | 黄金 强势走高 | 进入关键时期，短期不确定性仍然较多，关注中东问题的严峻程度。长期全球 | | | 尚在秩序重塑途中，黄金战略配置价值高。【790-815】 | | | 白银跟随黄金避险情绪，市场表现上涨，金银比价方面，目前回归正常区间， | | 白银 高位震荡 | 目前白银基本面变化不大，短期白银将交易黄金和基本金属跟随特性，关注 | | | 8700，如果撑不住或再次回到前期区间。【8700-9000】 | | | 中美会谈结束并没有实质性大利好，国内宏观窗口期，中东地缘风险激增，市场对 | | 铜 区间震荡 | 全球经济下行担忧增加，市场避险情绪回升，铜短期反弹，但整体或仍旧承压，重 | | | 新回到震荡区间。中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77800，78800】 | | | 海外地缘风险激增，美联储议息会议临近，市场避险情绪上升，锌止跌反弹， | | 锌 反弹 | 成本支撑下深跌空间或有限，但整体依旧偏弱，短期建议暂时观望，长期看， | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。5 月美农报告偏 | | | | 利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，减产担忧提振市场看多情绪，但实际减产预计有 | | | | 限。由于美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面依然偏空。美生柴政策刺激， | | | | 美豆大幅上涨。但生柴刺激本身利空豆粕，预计提振效应有限。隔夜豆粕高位整理， | | | | 3080 元以上继续追多谨慎，注意仓位及风控管理。主力【3010，3080】 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。5 月 | | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量及表观需求继续下降，库存去化良好。铁水产量仍然处于高位， | | | | 钢坯需求良好，铁水转向明显。宏观情绪改善带来的提振有限，同时原料 | | | | 端双焦仍存在一定出货压力。现实基本面尚未出现明显改善，中期重回区 | | | | 间运行，短期表现或偏弱。【2960，3000】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷需求继续回落，近期已低于去年同期，库存延续小幅增加的状态，供 | | | | 需层面偏弱。出口后期存在回落可能，同时黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压 | | | | 制行情表现。中期区间运行，短期表现偏弱。【3080，3120】 | | 铁矿石 | 震荡偏弱 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量再降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发到货双增，港口钢厂库存双增。整体供需结构偏弱。单边空单持 | | | | 有【680,715】 | | 焦炭 | 偏弱震荡 | 独立焦企及钢厂焦炭产量继续下降，供应出现一定收缩，库存环比小幅回 | | | | 落。铁水产量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given reports 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: High - altitude operation is recommended as geopolitical premiums are being squeezed out, and supply pressure is rising. Consider short - selling with a light position. SC should be monitored in the range of [485 - 500] [1][5] - **LPG**: The market is in consolidation. Sell call options. PG should be monitored in the range of [4100 - 4200] [1][7] - **L**: Bearish consolidation. The fundamental upward momentum is insufficient. Consider short - selling on rebounds. Upstream enterprises can sell - hedge when appropriate. L should be monitored in the range of [7000 - 7200] [1][11] - **PP**: Bearish consolidation. The fundamental upward momentum is insufficient. Consider short - selling on rebounds. Downstream enterprises can buy - hedge when appropriate. PP should be monitored in the range of [6900 - 7000] [1][13] - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation. The upward driving force is insufficient. Participate in the short - term. V should be monitored in the range of [4750 - 4850] [1][15] - **PX**: Cautiously go long at low levels. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out long positions on pullbacks. PX should be monitored in the range of [6500 - 6620] [1][16] - **PTA**: Bearish. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out short positions at high levels. TA should be monitored in the range of [4590 - 4690] [1][19] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out short positions at high levels. EG should be monitored in the range of [4220 - 4280] [1][21] - **Glass**: The price is expected to decline under pressure. FG should be monitored in the range of [960 - 990], and it will face resistance at the 1000 - level [2][26] - **Soda Ash**: The market remains weak. After a narrow - range shock, it will continue the bearish trend, suppressed by the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages. SA should be monitored in the range of [1140 - 1180] [2][29] - **Caustic Soda**: Suppressed by the moving averages. SH should be monitored in the range of [2260 - 2310] [2][32] - **Methanol**: Bearish consolidation. Consider laying out short positions at high levels. MA should be monitored in the range of [2260 - 2290] [2][33] - **Urea**: The price is relatively weak, but the downside space is limited. Be cautious when short - selling. UR should be monitored in the range of [1620 - 1650] [2] - **Asphalt**: Bearish consolidation. The valuation is high, and the cost is falling. Try short - selling with a light position. BU should be monitored in the range of [3475 - 3545] [2] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Supply**: EIA's latest monthly report shows that US crude oil production will decrease from 13.42 million barrels per day this year to 13.37 million barrels per day in 2026, while global crude oil production is expected to increase to 104.4 million barrels per day [5] - **Demand**: In May, China's crude oil imports were 46.6 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 229.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. IEA maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 740,000 barrels per day and raises the demand growth in 2026 by 70,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day [5] - **Inventory**: As of the week ending June 6, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.644 million barrels to 432.4 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 1.504 million barrels to 229.8 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.246 million barrels to 108.8 million barrels [5] LPG - **Cost and Profit**: As of June 11, the PDH device profit was - 1016 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 42 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit was - 210.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply**: As of the week ending June 13, the total LPG commodity volume was 529,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8500 tons, and the civil LPG commodity volume was 228,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4100 tons [8] - **Demand**: As of the week ending June 13, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil were 64.30%, 59.70%, and 47.14% respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 1.29pct, + 4.98pct, and - 0.40pct [8] - **Inventory**: As of the week ending June 13, refinery inventories were 169,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7200 tons, and port inventories were 2.928 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 142,400 tons [8] L - **Supply**: This week's production increased by 3% month - on - month, and with many downstream device restart plans, production is expected to continue to increase [11] - **Inventory**: Social inventories have started to accumulate, and in the off - season of agricultural film demand, downstream restocking motivation is insufficient, with a risk of continued inventory accumulation in the middle reaches [11] PP - **Supply**: Weekly production has increased, but with more short - term maintenance devices next week, production is expected to decline. There is high pressure from new device production in June - July, and supply is abundant [13] - **Demand**: It is the domestic off - season, export margins are low, and overseas market transactions are weak, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand [13] - **Inventory**: There is pressure for inventory accumulation in the middle reaches [13] PVC - **Supply**: Social inventories are in a de - stocking trend. A 300,000 - ton new device of Shaanxi Jintai was put into operation at the beginning of the month, and more device maintenance is expected next week, with a possible further reduction in supply [15] - **Demand**: Southern demand has declined marginally due to the rainy season, but weekly export orders have remained above 20,000 tons. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand [15] PX - **Supply**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and overseas device operating loads have increased, leading to increased supply pressure. The weekly operating rate is 83.4% (+ 4.8pct), and the weekly output is 700,000 tons (+ 40,000 tons) [17] - **Demand**: Downstream PTA maintenance devices have restarted, and there are production plans in June, with improved demand expectations [17] - **Inventory**: In April, PX inventories decreased to 4.2503 million tons (- 427,700 tons), which is lower than the same period last year but still at a high level in the past five years [17] PTA - **Supply**: PTA maintenance devices have restarted, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The weekly operating rate is 79.0% (+ 1.4pct), and the weekly output is 1.371 million tons (+ 23,000 tons) [19] - **Demand**: The operating loads of downstream polyester and terminal weaving continue to decline. Polyester product weighted inventories have stopped falling and started to rise, and terminal weaving orders have decreased [19] - **Inventory**: PTA social inventories have continued to decline. The available days of social inventories are 12.3 days (- 0.3 days), and the social inventory in April was 4.25 million tons (- 554,000 tons) [19] Ethylene Glycol - **Supply**: There has been an increase in device maintenance, and the arrival volume is low, alleviating supply pressure. The weekly maintenance loss is 290,000 tons (+ 5000 tons), and the daily output is 47,200 tons (+ 1000 tons) [22] - **Demand**: The operating loads of downstream polyester and terminal weaving continue to decline. Polyester product weighted inventories have stopped falling and started to rise [22] - **Inventory**: Social inventories are in a de - stocking trend, and port inventories are low compared to the same period [22] Glass - **Macro Environment**: The decline in China's PPI has widened, and the deflation pattern in industrial products has not been alleviated. The construction PMI has dropped by 0.9 percentage points to 51, and the mid - term demand for glass is shrinking [26] - **Supply**: In the short - term rainy season and high - temperature period, coal - fired production lines still have profits, making it difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. Supply - side start - up and daily melting volume are fluctuating at a low level [26] - **Demand**: Upstream inventories have started to increase, mid - stream trader inventories are being de - stocked, and downstream deep - processing orders are lower than the same period. Spot market quotes have generally been lowered [26] Soda Ash - **Supply**: Alkali plant maintenance devices are gradually restarting, and new production capacity is being put into production, increasing market supply pressure [29] - **Demand**: The daily melting volume of float glass has decreased, and the photovoltaic installation boom has subsided, resulting in insufficient rigid demand support for soda ash [29] - **Inventory**: Alkali plant inventory removal speed has slowed down, and the total inventory is at a relatively high level compared to historical periods [29] Caustic Soda - **Supply**: There has been a lot of device maintenance in the caustic soda market recently, but the maintenance scale in June is smaller than last month, and there is still pressure from new production. Supply is expected to gradually recover in the middle and later part of the month [32] - **Demand**: Terminal demand is differentiated. The production of downstream alumina in Shandong supports prices, but non - aluminum markets are观望. Non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices, and overall demand support for prices is limited [32] - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda sample enterprise factory inventories are 405,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.3% [32] Methanol - **Supply**: The profit of coal - made methanol is relatively good, and the device operating load remains high. The expected arrival of Iranian methanol has been gradually realized, and non - Iranian supplies have increased, increasing supply pressure [2] - **Demand**: The operating load of MTO devices has continued to recover, but with poor profits, the space for further load increase is limited. Traditional demand is in a seasonal off - season [2] - **Inventory**: Inventories are accumulating, and the arbitrage window between coastal and inland methanol remains closed, with inland enterprise inventories increasing [2] Urea - **Supply**: Daily production remains at a high level, and supply pressure is relatively large [2] - **Demand**: It is currently the off - season for domestic agricultural urea consumption. After the end of the southern rainy season, the demand for top - dressing corn and fertilizing rice in the north is expected to be realized, and industrial demand is neutral. Fertilizer exports have grown rapidly this year [2] - **Cost**: The overall cost is weak, but there is still bottom - end support [2] Asphalt - **Supply**: Supply has increased, and inventories have accumulated [2] - **Demand**: There is rigid demand in the north, but demand in the south is expected to decline due to the rainy season, showing a "strong north, weak south" pattern [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term uncertainties for gold are numerous, and it is in a high - level oscillation. The strategic allocation value of gold is high in the long - term. Silver is also in a high - level oscillation, and its market sentiment changes rapidly. Copper is in a high - level consolidation in the short - term, and it is still favored in the long - term. Zinc's rebound is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand weakening. Lead shows a short - term rebound. Tin's rebound is under pressure due to slow复产 and weak smelting. Aluminum has a short - term rebound. Nickel is under pressure to decline. Industrial silicon's short - term disk rebounds from oversold, and it is advisable to short at high prices in the long - term. Carbonate lithium is bearish [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: SHFE gold was at 785.16, up 0.98% from the previous value, and COMEX gold was at 3406, up 0.90%. SHFE silver was at 8819, down 0.93%, and COMEX silver was at 36, up 0.14%. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio was 89.03, up 1.93%. The London gold spot price was $3295, down 1.04%, and the London silver spot price was $33.124, down 8.50% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment and inflation data are weak. Tariff uncertainties are large, and the UK economy has shrunk. In the short - term, geopolitical variables are significant, and in the long - term, the trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - easing of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For gold, pay attention to the support at 770 and control positions for long - term investment. For silver, its speculative sentiment has temporarily returned. If the price - ratio returns to normal, it will follow the characteristics of gold and base metals. Control positions due to its high elasticity [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the SHFE copper main contract was 78580 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The LME copper price was $9702/ton, up 0.56%, and the COMEX copper price was $484.3/pound, up 0.76%. The spot price of electrolytic copper was 79200 yuan/ton, down 0.28% [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight. The domestic electrolytic copper output in May increased, but it is expected to decline in June. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and there is a risk of a soft squeeze on LME copper. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Wait for copper to fully retrace and stabilize. Observe the support at the 78,000 - yuan level. For industrial hedging, sell at high prices. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper [7]. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500], and for LME copper is [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22030 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The LME zinc price was $2644/ton, down 0.26%. The spot price of No. 0 zinc was 22310 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. The domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase in June. Downstream demand is weakening, and the开工 rate of zinc - related enterprises is lower than in previous years [10]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Temporarily wait and see in the short - term. In the long - term, short at high prices as supply increases and demand weakens. The range for SHFE zinc is [21800, 22400], and for LME zinc is [2600, 2700] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the LME aluminum was $2522.5/ton, up 0.24%. The SHFE aluminum main contract was 20395 yuan/ton, up 0.72%. The alumina main contract was 2895 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SMM A00 aluminum spot average price was 20650 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment eases, production costs decline, and inventories decrease. For alumina, the overseas bauxite supply is stable, and the domestic production capacity is recovering. There is a short - term supply surplus [13]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Short on rebounds for SHFE aluminum and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900, 20500]. Alumina operates in a low - level range [13]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices continued to decline, and stainless steel was under pressure [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The overseas macro - environment eases. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines increases, and the cost support weakens. Domestic refined nickel inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory is rising due to the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [118000, 123000] [14]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2507 decreased in position and dropped more than 1% throughout the day [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals change little. The supply pressure is large, and the terminal demand is in the off - season. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and the rebound's sustainability is questionable [16]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Hold short positions in the range of [60000, 61500] [16].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。5 月美农报告偏 | | | | 利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，减产担忧提振市场看多情绪，但实际减产预计有 | | | | 限。由于美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面依然偏空。昨日豆粕高位整 | | | | 理，关注技术短空机会。凌晨美农 6 月报告中性，美豆调整。主力【3025，3070】 | | | 至 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。5 月 7 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | ...