钢材：供需趋于宽松，偏弱运行 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 相关会议措施对黑色系提振有限，市场情绪消退，市场回归产业逻辑。螺 | | | | 纹表需大幅下降 77 万吨，超过季节性降幅，库存不降反增，供需趋于宽松。 | | 螺纹钢 | 偏弱运行 | 行情大幅增仓下行，市场悲观情况较浓。中期关注高铁水背景下需求季节 | | | | 性回落带来的供需矛盾激化风险，短期关注下方 3000 支撑。【3000，3070】 | | | | 基本面方面，热卷供应小幅增加，需求降幅较大，库存出现上升。出口仍 | | 热卷 | 偏弱运行 | 在高位，但后期有回落风险。宏观消息提振有限，中期延续偏弱运行。【3130， | | | | 3200】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量继续增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持 | | | | 高位。供给短阶段性发到货双降，铁矿供需结构偏强。后期来看，终端需 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累。产业基本面恐承压。单边短 | | | | 线参与，跨期正套持有。【680，71 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish consolidation. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to increase gradually, but the continuous short - selling momentum in the market has weakened, and there is a need for consolidation or rebound technically [1][3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term decline trend is slowing down. Although it continued a small - scale rebound yesterday, it has not reversed the short - term bearish pattern. The supply pressure in the long - term is expected to ease [1][5][8]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bearish. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for now. The inventory accumulation cycle in Southeast Asia has started, and the price center of gravity is moving down [1][9][10]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The supply side maintains a bearish expectation, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expected improvement in foreign trade, and it is expected to drive a short - term rebound in the market [1][12][13]. - **Red Dates**: Consolidation with a slightly stronger trend. The focus is on the consumption of old dates. After the May Day holiday, the arrival of goods downstream has increased and the transaction has accelerated, which supports the market in the short term [1][14][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline marginally [1][16][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International**: The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, especially in the Great Lakes region in May [1][3]. - **Domestic**: From May to July, the monthly average import is expected to be over 10 million tons. The supply environment is gradually becoming looser, and the spot and basis of soybean meal have declined. As of May 2, 2025, the port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, and the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is decreasing [1][3]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, it had a narrow - range consolidation at a low level. The continuous short - selling momentum has weakened, and there is a need for consolidation or rebound technically [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of April 30, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have increased, and the unexecuted contracts have decreased [8]. - **Supply Outlook**: In the short term, the supply is sufficient due to high inventory and new - season rapeseed harvest. However, from May to July, the rapeseed import is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure will ease [1][5][8]. - **Market Performance**: It continued a small - scale rebound yesterday but has not reversed the short - term bearish pattern [1][5][8]. Palm Oil - **Domestic Situation**: Low commercial inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure currently. The inventory decreased by 3.23% week - on - week as of May 2, 2025 [1][9][10]. - **International Situation**: Malaysia is expected to have inventory accumulation in April. In May, the production and sales in Southeast Asia are expected to increase, but the export growth rate is expected to be lower than the production growth rate, starting the inventory accumulation cycle [1][9][10]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil had a short - term decline yesterday but is expected to have a short - term consolidation [1][9][10]. Cotton - **International**: As of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and the supply side maintains a bearish expectation. Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 0.4% [1][12][13]. - **Domestic**: The 2025 cotton intended planting area is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year, and the output is conservatively estimated at about 7 million tons. The sowing is almost finished, and the weather is favorable for emergence. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expected improvement in foreign trade [1][12][13]. - **Market Performance**: Although the supply - side fundamentals are loose, the market may have a short - term rebound due to improved sentiment [1][12][13]. Red Dates - **Production Area**: Some areas in southern Xinjiang have seen the budding of jujube trees, and the current growth situation is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.15% week - on - week but is still higher than the same period [1][14][15]. - **Market**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. After the May Day holiday, the arrival of goods downstream has increased and the transaction has accelerated, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is gradually emerging [1][14][15]. - **Market Performance**: The short - term market support is expected to strengthen, showing a narrow - range consolidation [1][14][15]. Live Pigs - **Short - term**: In April, the slaughterhouse's slaughter progress was slow, the supply rhythm slowed down, and the weight continued to increase slightly. The theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter volume from April to June 2025 will slow down [16][17][18]. - **Medium - term**: The number of new - born piglets from January to March 2025 increased month - on - month, indicating an increase in slaughter pressure in the third quarter [16][17][18]. - **Long - term**: The inventory of breeding sows in January 2025 decreased slightly month - on - month, increased in February, and is expected to remain above the normal level in March, which may slightly benefit the supply in early next year [16][17][18]. - **Market Performance**: The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline marginally [16][17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is a bearish consolidation, with multiple factors affecting supply and demand, and caution is needed when chasing short positions [1]. - The decline of rapeseed meal has slowed down in the short - term, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed, and attention should be paid to Canadian rapeseed exports and the US Department of Agriculture report [1]. - Palm oil is in a weak operation, lacking bullish drivers, and the center of oscillation is moving downward [8]. - Cotton is expected to have a short - term rebound. Although the supply side is bearish, the market sentiment has improved due to trade negotiations [1]. - Jujube is in a slightly bullish oscillation. The high inventory of old jujubes is a pressure, but the pre - festival stocking has supported the market [1]. - Live pigs are under pressure to operate. The market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and there is a risk of price suppression in the later period [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: The positive impact of China - US trade tariff events has temporarily ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and attention should be paid to the continuous rainfall in May in the Great Lakes region of the US [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: From May to July, the monthly average import is expected to be over 10 million tons. As of May 2, 2025, the national port soybean inventory and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills have increased, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased. The supply of soybean meal is gradually becoming more relaxed, and the spot and basis have declined [3]. - **Market Performance**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2920 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3350 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The continuous short - selling momentum in the market has weakened, and there is a demand for consolidation or rebound [1][2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 30, the rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills increased, the rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed will be harvested in May, but the import from May to July is expected to decline significantly [7]. - **Market Advantage**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded to over 1000 yuan/ton, and the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal is obvious [7]. - **Market Performance**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2565 yuan/ton, up 0.67% from the previous day. It rebounded slightly yesterday, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed [1][4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions decreased by 3.23% week - on - week and 22.49% year - on - year. India's palm oil imports in April are expected to decline by 24% [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Malaysia's palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in April. In May, the production and sales in Southeast Asia are expected to increase, but the export growth rate is expected to be lower than the production growth rate, and the inventory accumulation cycle has started [8]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil continued its short - term decline and closed slightly lower, but there is a demand for short - term consolidation near the previous low [1]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and some cotton farmers are considering expanding planting. Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 0.4% [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's cotton intended planting area in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year, and the production is conservatively estimated to be around 7 million tons. The cotton planting in Xinjiang is mostly completed, and the demand is in the off - season [10]. - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (CF2509) closed at 12900 yuan/ton, up 0.90%. The market sentiment has improved due to trade negotiations, and a short - term rebound is expected [1][10]. Jujube - **Production Area Situation**: In some southern Xinjiang jujube - producing areas, the jujube trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.15% week - on - week but is still higher than the same period [13]. - **Market Performance**: The main contract of jujube (CJ2509) closed at 9050 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is emerging, supporting the short - term market [1][13]. Live Pigs - **Industry Data**: The national sample enterprise pig inventory increased by 0.36% month - on - month, the slaughter volume increased by 16.82%, and the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.66% [14]. - **Market Situation**: The main contract of live pigs (Lh2509) closed at 13985 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The market fundamentals have not improved significantly, the secondary fattening enthusiasm has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline [1][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: In the expansion cycle, the upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient, and they are in a callback and consolidation phase. Suggest a long - term view of supply surplus and a short - term view of narrow - range oscillations with a rebound - biased short position. SC is expected to be in the range of [450 - 465] [1][3][4]. - **LPG**: It follows the cost side for oscillatory adjustments. In the long - term, it is bearish, and in the short - term, it is oscillatory. Suggest selling bull spread options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4380 - 4430] [1][8][9]. - **L**: The spot price is falling, with abundant supply and a weak oscillatory trend. In the long - term, it is suggested to take short positions on rallies. L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [1][12]. - **PP**: The basis is weakening, and the market is in a weak oscillatory state during the off - season. In the long - term, it is suggested to take short positions on rallies. PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [1][15]. - **PVC**: The market is in a contango structure, with limited upward momentum in the fundamentals and a weakening oscillatory trend. Short - term observation is recommended. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [1][17]. - **PX**: There is a supply - demand contraction, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. Short - term observation or seizing opportunities to widen the px - sc spread is recommended. PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [1][19]. - **PTA/P - R**: The supply - side pressure is relieved, but the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing, and the valuation is low. Short - term observation or seizing opportunities to increase TA processing fees and the ta - eg spread is recommended. TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [1][22]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - side pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies. EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [1][25]. - **Glass**: The domestic loose monetary policy has limited impact on demand, and the market expectation is pessimistic. FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080] [1][29]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is abundant, and the growth of photovoltaic demand has slowed down. The market is bearish in the medium - term. SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [1][31]. - **Methanol**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions. MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [1][32]. - **Urea**: Although the supply pressure is large, the fertilizer export growth is fast, and there is a bottom - support at the cost side. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities. UR is expected to be in the range of [1860 - 1920] [1]. - **Asphalt**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. It is expected to have a short - term rebound. BU is expected to be in the range of [3390 - 3450] [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.73%, Brent down 1.66%, and SC up 1.81% [2]. - **基本逻辑**: OPEC+ started to increase production in April, and the increase rate exceeded expectations. The EIA estimated the global oil demand in 2025 to be 1.037 billion barrels per day. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 200 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve increased by 60 million barrels [3]. - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, the supply is in surplus, and the oil price fluctuates between 55 - 65 US dollars. In the short - term, it is recommended to take short positions on rallies. SC is expected to be in the range of [450 - 465] [4]. LPG - **行情回顾**: On May 7, the PG main contract closed at 4450 yuan/ton, up 1.16% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, 3 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **基本逻辑**: The upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient, and LPG's own fundamentals have few contradictions. The port inventory has increased, and the PDH operating rate has risen [8]. - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, it is bearish. In the short - term, it is oscillatory. It is recommended to sell bull spread options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4380 - 4430] [9]. L - **行情回顾**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26 yuan/ton day - on - day [11]. - **基本逻辑**: New production capacities have been put into operation, and the supply is abundant. The agricultural film is in the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on rallies. L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [12]. - **策略推荐**: Take short positions on rallies, and L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [12]. PP - **行情回顾**: The L - PP09 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton day - on - day [14]. - **基本逻辑**: New production capacities have been put into operation, and the export of products is under pressure. The basis is weakening, and it is in the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on rallies. PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [15]. - **策略推荐**: Take short positions on rallies, and PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [15]. PVC - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **基本逻辑**: New production capacities have been added, and the supply is under pressure. The demand is weak, and the export is stable. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [17]. - **策略推荐**: Observe in the short - term, and V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [17]. PX - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6212 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 288 yuan/ton [18]. - **基本逻辑**: PX devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The demand side is weakening, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to seize opportunities to widen the PX - SC spread. PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [19]. - **策略推荐**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [20]. PTA - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the PTA price in East China was 4560 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4434 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was 108 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 126 yuan/ton [21]. - **基本逻辑**: PTA devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The demand side is relatively good but expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to seize opportunities to increase TA processing fees and the TA - EG spread. TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [22]. - **策略推荐**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the spot price in East China was 4214 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4155 yuan/ton. The EG5 - 9 spread was 33 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 59 yuan/ton [24]. - **基本逻辑**: Devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The to - port volume is high, and the demand side is expected to weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies. EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [25]. - **策略推荐**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [26]. Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market quotation was stable, and the market was in a weak state. The basis in Shahe weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - **基本逻辑**: The central bank's policies have limited impact on demand. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is improving slowly. The market expectation is pessimistic. FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080] [29]. - **策略推荐**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [29]. Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The spot price of heavy soda ash decreased, and the market was under pressure. The main contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [30]. - **基本逻辑**: Some soda ash enterprises have maintenance plans in May, and the supply may contract. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [31]. - **策略推荐**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [31]. Methanol - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the methanol spot price in East China was 2443 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2251 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 216 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 192 yuan/ton [32]. - **基本逻辑**: The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory has increased, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions. MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [32]. - **策略推荐**: MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [33].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 相关会议措施对黑色系提振有限，市场情绪逐渐消退，市场回归产业逻辑。 目前供需层面矛盾不大，螺纹周表需升至 292 万吨，超过去年同期，库存 | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 去化良好。整体上螺纹钢行情下有支撑上有压力，短期维持震荡运行。中 | | | | 期关注高铁水背景下需求季节性回落带来的供需矛盾激化风险。【3050， | | | 3130】 | | | | | 基本面方面，热卷供需双增，目前产量处于同期中间水平，但表观需求同 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 期偏高，导致库存去化速度较快，出口仍在高位，供需矛盾不大，总体维 | | | | 持震荡局面。宏观消息提振有限，短期维持区间震荡运行。【3170，3250】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量继续增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持 | | | | 高位。供给短阶段性发到货双降，铁矿供需结构偏强。后期来看，终端需 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累。产业基本面恐承压。单边短 | | | | 线参与，跨期正 ...

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3109 | -13 | 热卷01 | 3224 | -8 | | 螺纹05 | 3031 | -29 | 热卷05 | 3181 | 2 | | 螺纹10 | 3077 | -19 | 热卷10 | 3196 | -8 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2940 | 0 | 张家港废钢 | 2120 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3190 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3210 | 0 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3210 | -10 | 热卷:上海 | 3240 | 0 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3210 | -10 | 热卷:杭州 | 3260 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3430 | -20 | 热卷:广州 | 3300 | 20 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3350 | 0 | 热卷：成都 | 3420 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东、印巴地缘情绪不减，美加、美欧关税谈判一波三折，中美即将关税谈判， | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 全球购金力量仍然较多，长期看国际秩序破坏，全球信任崩塌，去美元化是主 | | | | 力，黄金是未来秩序筹码。长期战略配置价值持续存在【780-828】 | | | | 短期关税谈判使得白银等基本金属情绪有所好转，各国财政刺激预期增强，白 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 银有支撑，但白银弹性大，受黄金和基本金属影响较大，仍处于大的震荡区间 | | | | 附近，操作上高位区间思路对待。【8100-8380】 | | | | 美国非农数据超预期，经济衰退预期减弱，中美和谈开启，市场情绪进一步回暖， | | 铜 | 逢低试多 | 铜精矿紧张持续，国内库存持续去化，警惕软挤仓风险，短期建议铜逢低轻仓试多， | | | | 中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77500，79500】 | | | 国内 | 4 月制造业 PMI 回落至 49，经济景气度下滑，镀锌受黑色钢材影响开工 | | 锌 | 反弹抛 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views - **Rebound**: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA/R, ethylene glycol, and asphalt are expected to rebound. The reasons include the release of negative factors, trade negotiations between China and the US, and the rebound of upstream oil prices [1]. - **Stabilization**: L and PP are expected to stabilize. The basis has strengthened significantly, and the oil price has rebounded. However, in the long - term, there is pressure from new device production and potential downward movement of crude oil prices [1]. - **Oscillation**: PVC is expected to oscillate. With the increase in calcium carbide prices, a slight increase in warehouse receipts, and the start of trade negotiations between China and the US, the market sentiment has improved [1]. - **Weakness**: Glass is expected to be weak. Overseas tariff concerns persist, there is no incremental domestic policy, and the supply is stable at a low level while demand recovery is slow [1]. - **Neutral with Oscillation**: Soda ash is expected to oscillate at a low level. There are maintenance plans in May, leading to an expected reduction in supply, but new production capacity is expected, and the inventory is at a high level [1]. - **Bearish**: Methanol and urea are expected to be bearish. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, with relatively weak cost support [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Condition**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, while the settlement price of the domestic market's first trading day decreased. WTI rose by 3.43%, Brent rose by 3.19%, and SC decreased by 3.92% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: After the significant decline during the May Day holiday, the negative impact of OPEC+ production increase was released. China decided to engage in contact with the US. OPEC+ started increasing production in April, and 8 member countries will increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in June. The EIA expects global oil demand in 2025 to be 103.7 million barrels per day. US commercial crude and gasoline inventories decreased [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, the oil supply will be in excess, and the oil price will fluctuate between $55 - 65. In the short - term, there is a technical rebound after the over - decline, but the upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to be bearish on the rebound. SC should be monitored in the range of [460 - 470] [4]. LPG - **Market Condition**: On May 6, the PG main contract closed at 4,399 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,770 yuan/ton, 4,935 yuan/ton, and 5,230 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Basic Logic**: During the May Day holiday, international oil prices weakened under the double impact of OPEC+ expansion and tariff disturbances. After the decline, the negative factors were released, and the cost side stabilized, causing LPG to rebound with the oil price. The warehouse receipt volume decreased slightly, and the PDH device profit remained flat while the alkylation device profit decreased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand of some devices changed [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, its trend is mainly linked to upstream crude oil, and it is bearish with potential for further decline. Technically, it rebounds on the daily line but lacks upward momentum, showing an oscillatory trend. It is recommended to sell bull spread options. PG should be monitored in the range of [4430 - 4470] [8]. L - **Market Condition**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - **Basic Logic**: New production capacity has been put into operation this year, and some import windows are open. The agricultural film is at the end of the seasonal peak. The basis has strengthened significantly, the oil price has rebounded, and the device maintains high - level operation with sufficient supply. Short - term short positions can be partially closed. In the long - term, due to high device production pressure and potential downward movement of crude oil prices, it is recommended to be bearish on rallies [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be bearish on rallies. L should be monitored in the range of [6980 - 7080] [11]. PP - **Market Condition**: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - **Basic Logic**: A large - scale PP device was put into operation in the first quarter, and attention should be paid to the progress of a new PDH device. Due to tariff disturbances, product exports are under pressure. Many devices have restarted, and the short position of the L - PP spread can be closed. In the long - term, due to high device production pressure and potential downward movement of crude oil prices, it is recommended to be bearish on rallies [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be bearish on rallies. PP should be monitored in the range of [6960 - 7080] [14]. PVC - **Market Condition**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **Basic Logic**: A new device was put into operation in January, and the supply is under high pressure. The decline in real estate completion area has narrowed, and the downstream start - up rate has decreased seasonally. PVC exports from January to March increased significantly. With the increase in calcium carbide prices, a slight increase in warehouse receipts, and the start of trade negotiations between China and the US, the market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and be bullish on pullbacks [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term and be bullish on pullbacks. V should be monitored in the range of [4850 - 4970] [17]. PX - **Market Condition**: On April 30, the spot price in East China was 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,212 yuan/ton (+6). The basis in East China was 288 yuan/ton (-6) [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. Domestic and overseas devices have different maintenance and production reduction situations. The PXN spread is at a low level in the past five years, and the short - process PX - MX spread is seasonally high. The demand side is weakening as many PTA devices are under maintenance. The inventory is high. In May, the fundamentals continue to improve, but it follows cost fluctuations recently. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX should be monitored in the range of [6130, 6280] [19]. PTA - **Market Condition**: On April 30, the PTA price in East China was 4,560 yuan/ton (+20), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,434 yuan/ton (-6). The TA5 - 9 spread was 108 yuan/ton (+12), and the basis in East China was 126 yuan/ton (+26) [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Many PTA devices are under maintenance, relieving supply pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high. PTA inventory is decreasing, and the spot processing fee is at a low level. It follows cost fluctuations. After the holiday, it opened lower with low valuation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA should be monitored in the range of [4370, 4480] [22]. MEG - **Market Condition**: On April 30, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,214 yuan/ton (-6), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,155 yuan/ton (-32). The EG5 - 9 spread was 33 yuan/ton (-2), and the basis in East China was 59 yuan/ton (+26) [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Many devices are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. The arrival volume is high, and the import in March exceeded expectations. The demand side is relatively good but is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high. The inventory is high, and the cost support is weak. After the holiday, it is expected to open lower. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG should be monitored in the range of [4130, 4230] [25]. Glass - **Market Condition**: The spot market prices mostly decreased, the futures market was weak, the basis in Shahe weakened, and the warehouse receipts decreased [26]. - **Basic Logic**: At the macro level, the Sino - US trade war has entered a new stage, and there is no clear incremental policy information. Tariff concerns remain, and the macro sentiment is cautious. The supply pressure is slowly decreasing, but the demand improvement is slow, and the market is expected to be pessimistic. The supply is stable at a low level, the demand shows seasonal improvement but is lower than the same period, and the upstream inventory has increased again. Pay attention to global market risk preferences, downstream production and sales, and domestic hedging policies [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG should be monitored in the range of [1060, 1090], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Condition**: The spot price of heavy soda ash decreased, the futures market was under pressure and declined, the basis widened, the warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecasts increased [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Soda ash enterprises have maintenance plans in May, and the supply may shrink again. However, the start - up rate remains high, and major large - scale devices are operating stably. The downstream demand is weak, and the terminal users are mostly on the sidelines. The alkali plant inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute inventory is still high. The profits of the two main production methods have increased. Pay attention to device maintenance, the trends of related industrial chain products, and macro - sentiment changes [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA should be monitored in the range of [1320, 1350] [29]. Methanol - **Market Condition**: On April 30, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,443 yuan/ton (+5), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,251 yuan/ton (-27). The basis in East China was 216 yuan/ton (+28), and the port basis was 192 yuan/ton (+33). The China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit was 72 US dollars/ton (+1) [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Previously maintained devices have resumed production, and the overseas methanol import is expected to be gradually realized, increasing supply pressure. The domestic methanol comprehensive profit remains high, and the weighted start - up load continues to rise. The demand side is expected to weaken, and the MTO device start - up load has decreased. The traditional demand is in the seasonal off - season. The cost support is weak. In the short - term, the methanol market remains relatively loose, and it is recommended to be bearish on rallies [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA should be monitored in the range of [2220, 2260] [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish and oscillating. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and there is insufficient rainfall in US soybean - planting areas. Domestic soybean inventories in ports and oil mills have increased for four consecutive weeks, and soybean crushing has rebounded slightly month - on - month. The supply is expected to increase gradually. Pay attention to the US Department of Agriculture's May report and US soybean planting weather [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bearish. The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills have decreased month - on - month, and the rapeseed meal inventory is lower than the same period in the past two years. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded again, increasing the substitution of rapeseed meal. Although it rebounded slightly yesterday, the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed. Pay attention to Canadian rapeseed export and the US Department of Agriculture's report [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. The domestic palm oil commercial inventory is low, and there is no supply - side pressure. Pay attention to the international palm oil price. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in April. The domestic palm oil opened lower and closed down yesterday. The production and sales of palm oil in Southeast Asia are expected to increase in May, and the inventory accumulation cycle has started [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The sowing of US cotton continues, and the supply side maintains a bearish expectation. The market sentiment has recovered, and US cotton is expected to continue to strengthen in the short - term. In China, the cotton sowing is coming to an end, and the new - season output is expected to be high. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expectation of foreign trade improvement, which may drive the short - term rebound of the market [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillating strongly. The new - season red dates have not blossomed, and the old - crop high inventory pressure remains. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals have increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has emerged, which may strengthen the short - term support of the market [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline. The operation should maintain a bearish idea, and beware of the risk of secondary fattening pressure release from late May to June [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2915 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3544.57 yuan/ton, down 1.60%. The soybean crushing profit in Zhangjiagang decreased by 189.40 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the positive impact of trade tariffs has ended, and there is insufficient rainfall in US soybean - planting areas. Domestically, 4 - 6 monthly average imports are over 10 million tons. As of April 24, domestic soybean inventories in ports and oil mills increased for four consecutive weeks, and the soybean meal inventory was still decreasing [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2548 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2576.84 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 240 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Situation**: As of April 30, coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories increased, and unexecuted contracts decreased. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is higher than in the past two years, and new - season rapeseed will be harvested in May. The 5 - 7 month rapeseed import is expected to decline year - on - year, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded [7]. Palm Oil - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 7974 yuan/ton, down 2.14% from the previous day. The national average price was 8760 yuan/ton, down 1.02%. The weekly commercial inventory decreased by 1.19 million tons [8]. - **Market Situation**: As of May 2, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory decreased. India's April palm oil import is expected to decline by 24%. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in April, and the inventory accumulation cycle in Southeast Asia has started [9]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12745 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.49% to 14139 yuan/ton. The mainstream area spinning mill operating rate decreased by 0.20% [10]. - **Market Situation**: Internationally, as of May 4, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and Brazilian cotton production is expected to increase. Domestically, the 2025 cotton intention - planting area increased by 1.5%, and the output is estimated to be about 7 million tons. The demand is in the off - season, but the foreign trade expectation has improved [11]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9045 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The spot prices of various grades remained stable. The arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang increased by 1 vehicle [13]. - **Market Situation**: In the production area, southern Xinjiang gray - date trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The 36 - sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, but is still higher than the same period. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect emerged [14]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13960 yuan/ton, up 0.36% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14930 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The national sample enterprise pig slaughter volume increased by 16.82% month - on - month [15]. - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the farm slaughter progress in April was slow, and the supply rhythm slowed down. In the medium - term, the third - quarter pig market may face increased slaughter pressure. The current standard - fat price difference is positive, and the secondary - fattening sentiment has slowed down. After the stocking, the slaughter demand growth has slowed down [16].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 节日期间钢坯现货累计调涨 20 元/吨，螺纹周表需升至 292 万吨，超过去 | | | | 年同期,库存去化良好。供需数据层面矛盾不大，甚至表现偏紧。但节日期 | | 螺纹钢 | 震荡运行 | 间外盘原油、铁矿石等出现不同幅度下跌，外部情绪偏空。预计螺纹钢行 | | | | 情下有支撑，上有压力，短期或仍呈区间震荡运行。【3070，3140】 | | | | 热卷供需双增，目前产量处于同期中间水平，但表观需求同期偏高，导致 | | 热卷 | 震荡运行 | 库存去化速度较快，供需情况有所好转。虽然后期出口存在回落预期，但 | | | | 暂时未有兑现。短期或维持区间震荡运行。【3170，3250】 | | | | 铁水产量继续增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。随着外矿发 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 运逐渐恢复放量，铁矿基本面边际转弱。终端需求边际转弱，与高铁水的 | | | | 分化矛盾逐渐积累。单边短线参与，跨期正套持有。【690,730】 | | | | 铁水日产量继续上升至 245.42 ...