[Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/8/13 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 農药 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 液化石油气 | 铝 | 合成橡胶 | | | | 原油 | 氧化铝 | 橡胶 | | | | 年 | 沥青 | 碳酸锂 | | | | 纯碱 | 燃油 | 焦炭 | | | | 甲醇 | 白糖 | 焦煤 | | | | 五债 | 烧碱 | 纸浆 | | | | 十债 | 棉纱 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 三十债 | 棉花 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | 多晶硅 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | | 工业硅 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 尿素 | | | | | | 玻璃 | | | | | | 乙二醇 | | | | | | 锰硅 | | | | | | 硅铁 | | | | | | 王米 | | | | | | PTA | | | | | | 螺纹钢 | | | | | | 热轧卷板 | | | | | | 对二甲 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 8 月 12 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 护铝 | 豆粕 | | 直海 | 沪银 | 鸡蛋 | | 沪铝 | 焦炭 | 郑棉 | | 菜油 | 菜粕 | 흐드 | | PTA | 橡胶 | 铁矿石 | | 塑料 | 炉金 | 沥青 | | 螺纹钢 | 沪锡 | 直一 | | | 棕櫚油 | | | | 聚丙烯 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. However, it provides trend and directional outlooks for various commodities, which can be inferred as implicit ratings: - **Trend空头**: No specific commodities mentioned as purely "Trend空头", but some commodities are in a "震荡偏空" (shaky and bearish) trend, including plastics, methanol, etc. [2] - **震荡偏空**: Plastics, methanol, etc. [2] - **震荡偏多**: Pesticides, caustic soda, etc. [2] - **趋势多头**: No specific commodities mentioned as purely "趋势多头", but some commodities show strong upward - potential trends. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: For stock index futures, use short - term trend thinking, be cautious of volume increase with no price increase, and consider covered call strategies. For bond futures, consider the steepening strategy. [10][11] - **Black commodities**: Steel and ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Double - coking prices may enter a high - level shock stage. For ferroalloys, consider trading spreads. For soda ash and glass, short soda ash at high prices and observe glass. [14][16][17][18] - **Non - ferrous and new materials**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, while alumina may repair its discount. Zinc prices will decline, and lithium carbonate prices will be strong. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will fluctuate. [21][22][24] - **Agricultural products**: For cotton, adopt a bearish strategy at high prices. For sugar, prices are under pressure but watch for low - absorption demand during holidays. For eggs, sell on rebounds. For apples, use light - position positive arbitrage. For corn, near - month contracts will range - bound, and far - month contracts can be shorted. For red dates, observe. For hogs, short near - month contracts and consider 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage. [28][31][32][34][36][37] - **Energy and chemical**: For crude oil, consider shorting at high prices. Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices. Plastics will fluctuate weakly. Rubber may be slightly strong in the short term. Methanol will fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda can be bought at low prices. Asphalt follows oil prices. The polyester industry chain will be weak. LPG prices are likely to fall. Pulp and log prices need further observation. [39][40][41][42][43][45][46][48][49] Summary by Directory Macro - financial Stock Index Futures - **Strategy**: Short - term trend thinking, be cautious of volume increase with no price increase, and consider covered call strategies to increase returns. - **Market situation**: A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation on Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12% to 3635.13 points, with a trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan. July's foreign trade data slightly exceeded expectations, and inflation data was slightly lower than expected. [10] Bond Futures - **Strategy**: Consider the steepening strategy in the short term. - **Market logic**: The current core trading logic in the bond market is loose liquidity, with DR001 at 1.3%, driving the strength of bonds with maturities below 10 years, but not affecting ultra - long - term bonds. [11] Black Commodities Steel and Ore - **Market view**: From a policy perspective, subsequent policy efforts may be moderate. Seasonal demand is weak, but mid - term decline is limited. Supply is expected to remain strong, and prices are expected to fluctuate. [14][15] Coal and Coking - **View**: Double - coking prices may enter a high - level shock stage. Supply is tight in the short term, but there are also downward pressure factors. [16] Ferroalloys - **Market outlook**: The double - silicon futures are in a reasonable range. Consider trading spreads or reverse spreads instead of shorting directly. [17] Soda Ash and Glass - **View**: Short soda ash at high prices and observe glass. Soda ash supply is high, and there is inventory pressure. Glass needs to digest speculative inventory. [18][19] Non - ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum**: Demand is weak in the off - season, but price support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - **Alumina**: The discount may be repaired, but it may also fluctuate weakly in the future due to supply pressure. [21] Zinc - **View**: Social inventory is increasing, and zinc prices will decline due to increased supply and weak demand. [22] Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Due to supply disruptions in Jiangxi, the supply - demand gap will widen, and prices will be strong in the short term. [22][23] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: With polysilicon's resumption of production, the downward adjustment space is limited, and it will fluctuate. - **Polysilicon**: It will fluctuate widely, with policy expectations conflicting with fundamental oversupply. [24][26] Agricultural Products Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. Adopt a bearish strategy at high prices, considering both demand concerns and expected production increases. [28][29] Sugar - **View**: Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to expected supply increases, but watch for low - absorption demand during holidays. [31][32] Eggs - **View**: Spot prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, but the increase may be limited. Sell on rebounds. [32][33] Apples - **View**: Use light - position positive arbitrage. Pay attention to the prices of early - maturing apples and new - season apples. [34] Corn - **View**: Near - month contracts will range - bound, and far - month contracts can be shorted based on cost logic. [34][35] Red Dates - **View**: Observe. Pay attention to production areas' weather and sales areas' prices. [36] Hogs - **View**: Short near - month contracts and consider 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage due to supply pressure. [37][38] Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - **View**: OPEC+ is increasing supply, and demand is uncertain. Consider shorting at high prices. [39] Fuel Oil - **View**: Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices, and the current supply - demand situation is complex. [40] Plastics - **View**: Polyolefins will fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options. [41] Rubber - **View**: It may be slightly strong in the short term. Consider short - term long positions with stop - losses. [42] Methanol - **View**: The market is in a stalemate, and prices will fluctuate weakly. Consider selling call options. [43] Caustic Soda - **View**: Adopt a long - at - low - prices strategy as the market no longer expects further price drops. [43][44] Asphalt - **View**: Asphalt follows oil prices, and its own fundamentals are in the off - season. [45] Polyester Industry Chain - **View**: The industry chain will be weak due to poor raw material performance. [46] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **View**: LPG prices are likely to fall due to sufficient supply and weak demand. [46][47] Pulp - **View**: Observe port de - stocking and spot trading improvement. [48] Logs - **View**: Observe and consider hedging at high prices. [48] Urea - **View**: Urea prices will fluctuate weakly due to weak domestic demand. [48][49] Synthetic Rubber - **View**: It will fluctuate slightly. Consider the long NR - short BR arbitrage. [50]

Report Information - Report Title: "Accumulation of Inventory Continues, Macroeconomic Factors Affect Prices" - Report Date: August 10, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Jundong - Company: Zhongtai Futures [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The LME zinc price has risen due to the weakening of the US dollar and the warming of China's macro - economy, and the domestic zinc inventory is increasing [6][47] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The LME zinc price has increased under the influence of a weaker US dollar and positive trends in China's macro - economy [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Multiple charts show the historical data of LME and SHFE zinc inventory and warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [9] 2. Raw Material End - **Processing Fees**: The supply of zinc concentrate in the market is becoming looser, and the domestic concentrate processing fee (TC) remains stable at 3900 yuan/metal ton [14] - **Zinc Concentrate开工率**: Charts present the historical data of zinc concentrate new sample开工率, large - scale, small - scale and medium - scale mine开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [17] - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: Charts show the historical data of global zinc concentrate monthly output, SMM zinc concentrate new sample output, zinc concentrate monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [19] - **Refined Zinc Monthly Output**: Charts display the historical data of SMM zinc ingot monthly output and its predicted value from 2020 - 2025 [22] - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for raw material procurement [23] 3. Smelting End - **Refined Zinc Import**: Charts show the historical data of refined zinc monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [28] - **Refined Zinc开工**: The profit margin of smelters is continuously expanding, benefiting from the increase in TC and the increase in by - product sulfuric acid revenue, and the smelting profit has improved significantly compared with the previous period [29] - **Refined Zinc Output**: Some enterprises have resumed production after maintenance, and the overall开工率 has increased due to the improved processing economy of imported ores [32] 4. Demand End - **Refined Zinc Export**: Charts show the historical data of China's refined zinc monthly export volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [37] - **Downstream Inventory**: Charts present the historical data of SMM downstream zinc processing material enterprise monthly raw material inventory, smelter zinc alloy monthly finished product inventory, smelter zinc ingot monthly finished product inventory, smelter monthly finished product inventory days and SMM refined zinc smelter monthly finished product inventory from 2020 - 2025 [39] - **Downstream Output and开工率**: July - August is the traditional consumption off - season, and terminal orders are weak. Charts show the historical data of SMM galvanized weekly output, SMM galvanized weekly开工率, SMM die - casting weekly output, SMM die - casting weekly开工率, SMM zinc oxide weekly output and SMM zinc oxide weekly开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [41][42] - **Product Prices**: Charts show the historical data of Zamak5 zinc alloy average price, Zamak3 zinc alloy average price, zinc oxide ≥99.7% average price and hot - dip galvanized national average price from 2020 - 2025 [43] 5. Zinc Inventory - As of August 7, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 113,200 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared with July 31 and an increase of 5,900 tons compared with August 4, indicating an increase in domestic inventory [47] - Charts show the historical data of SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin three - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM zinc ingot bonded area weekly inventory, SMM refined zinc smelter sample enterprise weekly finished product inventory (factory warehouse inventory and in - transit inventory) from 2020 - 2025 [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the spot price of eggs dropped significantly, with a still high supply level. Under hot and humid weather, all sectors actively sold their goods, but market demand was average, and downstream procurement was cautious. After continuous price drops, the industry's willingness to purchase increased over the weekend, and the spot price stopped falling, showing a slow upward trend in the short term. As of August 9, the average price of powder eggs was 2.71 yuan per jin, and that of red eggs was 2.86 yuan per jin. Egg prices were close to the feed cost line, and the industry was in deep losses [2][4]. - In August, the egg supply level remained high, and high egg prices would prompt cold - storage eggs to enter the market. This year's Mid - Autumn Festival was late, so there were no bright spots in consumption in the first and middle of August, and there was no strong driving factor for egg prices. However, egg consumption might gradually increase in late August as schools reopened and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking began [4]. - The egg - laying hen production capacity was still large. Recently, the number of old hen culls did not increase significantly, and the new hen laying level was high. The in - production inventory of laying hens might continue to increase month - on - month. Also, there were many cold - storage eggs and old hen molting this year, shifting some supply pressure to the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season. Therefore, the supply pressure during this year's Mid - Autumn Festival was expected to be large, and the increase in egg prices before the festival was limited [4]. - Last week, futures contracts continued to fall, and the main 09 contract hit a record low. However, the fundamental situation of loose egg supply and demand did not change significantly. As the industry entered the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, the market was divided on the height of egg price increases. Due to the large supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival this year, the expected increase was limited. The 09 contract had some post - festival attributes, and its valuation was low, so the value of bottom - fishing was not high. In terms of operation, it was recommended to maintain the idea of shorting on rebounds, pay attention to light - position operation and timely profit - taking, and be cautious about bottom - fishing [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Egg Spot and Futures Price Data - **Price**: The average price of powder eggs was 2.71 yuan per jin, and that of red eggs was 2.86 yuan per jin this week, down 0.27 yuan (-9.0%) and 0.21 yuan (-6.7%) respectively from last week. The red - egg to powder - egg price difference was 0.15 yuan per jin, up 0.06 yuan (64.8%) from last week [2][4]. - **Basis**: The 10 - contract basis was - 482 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 238 yuan (-97.5%) from last week, and the 09 - contract basis was - 583 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 132 yuan (-29.3%) from last week [4]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 175 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 60 yuan (52.2%) from last week, and the 9 - 10 spread was 101 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 106 yuan (-51.2%) from last week. It was recommended to gradually take profits on the previous reverse - spread combination [4]. 2. Egg Supply - Side Data - **Laying Situation**: In August, the laying level was expected to continue to increase as the chicks hatched in March (corresponding to laying in August) had both year - on - year and month - on - month increases in the number of chicks replenished. The market remained in a situation where large - sized eggs were in short supply while small - sized eggs were in surplus [2]. - **Culling Situation**: The culling price of old hens was 5.60 yuan per jin, down 0.25 yuan (-4.27%) from last week. The culling volume was 13.71 million feathers, up 700,000 feathers (5.4%) from last week. The culling age was 506 days, down 1 day (-0.2%) from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The in - production inventory was 1.356 billion feathers, up 0.016 billion feathers (1.2%) from last month, and the egg - laying rate was 90.15%, down 0.83 percentage points (-0.91%) from the previous half - month. The production inventory was 1.03 days, up 0.11 days (12.0%) from last week, and the circulation inventory was 1.19 days, up 0.15 days (14.4%) from last week [2]. - **Replenishment**: The price of laying - hen chicks was 3.29 yuan per chick, down 0.05 yuan (-1.5%) from last week. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was 68%, unchanged from last week. The monthly hatching volume of sample enterprises was 39.98 million feathers, down 770,000 feathers (-1.9%) from last month [2]. 3. Laying - Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The feed cost of eggs was 2.74 yuan per jin, up 0.01 yuan (0.4%) from last week. The comprehensive cost of eggs was 3.20 yuan per jin, up 0.05 yuan (1.5%) from last week. The cost of raising a hen was 33.42 yuan per hen, up 0.09 yuan (0.3%) from last week [2]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive breeding profit was - 0.51 yuan per jin, down 0.36 yuan (-241.1%) from last week [2]. 4. Consumption - Side Data - **Sales Volume**: The sales volume of representative cities nationwide was 7,528.5 tons, down 368.6 tons (-4.7%) from last week. The shipment volume of sample production areas was 581.2 tons, down 14.76 tons (-2.5%) from last week [2]. - **Consumption Outlook**: High - temperature and high - humidity weather was unfavorable for consumption, and terminal market demand was average. Dealers and food processing enterprises were cautious about purchasing eggs. This year's Mid - Autumn Festival was late, so egg consumption was expected to be hard to improve effectively in the first and middle of August. However, it might gradually increase in late August as schools reopened and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking began [2][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry is currently influenced by both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include potential production cuts in some surveyed areas, possible poor quality of new - season jujubes, and rising spot prices. Negative factors are high inventory, a consumption off - season in August, and a likely normal but relatively small - yield year. The market is in the jujube expansion period in Xinjiang, and attention should be paid to fruit - setting and weather in the production areas, as well as sales volume and price in the sales areas. The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading, and go long on the 09 contract and short on the 01 contract for inter - month trading [4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Spot Prices (Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main production areas is 5.33 yuan/kg. The mainstream transaction prices in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar are 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6.0 yuan/kg respectively [6]. Spot Prices (Main Sales Areas) - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, the arrival volume has doubled compared to last week. The finished product price has increased by 0.30 yuan/kg week - on - week, and the daily average transaction is 3 - 40% of the arrival volume. The grade prices are as follows: super - special grade is 11.50 yuan/kg, special grade is 9.50 - 10.80 yuan/kg, first - grade is 9.00 - 9.50 yuan/kg, second - grade is 7.80 - 8.20 yuan/kg, and third - grade is 6.50 yuan/kg [10]. Spot Prices (Hebei Cangzhou) - The spot grade price difference in the Hebei Cangzhou market is stable week - on - week. The price difference between special grade and first - grade is 0.92 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from last week, and the difference between first - grade and second - grade is 1.3 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from last week [13]. Sample Point Weekly Inventory - As of July 25, the physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.54%, and a year - on - year increase of 72.62% [16]. Sales Profit (Xinjiang Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main production areas is 5.33 yuan/kg, and the first - grade finished product price in the Hebei sales area is 9.00 - 9.50 yuan/kg. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 400 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 2.42 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan/kg from last week [19]. Futures - Spot Basis (Special Grade, First Grade) - The jujube futures price has weakened, the spot price is stable, and the futures - spot basis has strengthened slightly. The first - grade spot in Cangzhou is at a discount of 1040 yuan/ton compared to the standard delivery product [22]. Contract Price Difference - The change in the 1 - 5 month spread has narrowed, with a discount of 175 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread has a premium of 1330 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 month spread fluctuates, with a discount of 1155 yuan/ton. A positive spread arbitrage opportunity is considered for the 9 - 1 month spread [25]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of August 8, the number of registered jujube warehouse receipts is 9214, and the number of valid forecasts is 1705, totaling 10919 [30].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View - **Market Fundamentals and Logic**: There are both positive and negative factors in the apple market. Positive factors include the potential for lower - quality new - season apples and the expectation of a high opening price. Negative factors are that the new - season apple production is basically the same as last year, the price of inventory apples is falling, and apple performance is average during the off - season. In August, the price of inventory apples in the production areas is stable, with a slightly improved but still slow出库 speed. The price of Crown pears shows a trend of low - opening, high - going, and then low - going. Early - maturing apples are on the market, and the price of new - season Fuji apples may be related to that of early - maturing and old - season apples [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to lightly short the 2601 contract at a high position. For the inter - month strategy, it is recommended to go long on 2510 and short on 2601. There are no recommendations for volatility and options [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1产区现货价格 - Shandong production area: The average transaction price of apples (paper - bagged 80 first - and second - grade striped red) in Qixia market is 3.9 yuan per catty. - Western production area: The average transaction price of apples (paper - bagged 70 and above) in Luochuan market is 4.6 yuan per catty (data stopped updating) [9]. 3.2产区库存及出库情况 - According to Zhuochuang Information, as of August 7, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 3.91%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points in this period, and 2.93 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a de - stocking rate of 93.86%. - According to Mysteel data, as of August 6, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the national main production areas is 53.39 tons, a decrease of 8.02 tons from last week. The shipping speed has slowed down slightly compared with last week and is basically the same as last year [12]. 3.3批发市场苹果价格 As of July 25, the prices of apples in the Guangzhou wholesale market are stable compared with last week. The prices of Jingning 80 boxed, Luochuan 80 boxed, and Qixia 80 boxed apples in both boxed and basketed forms have not changed [15]. 3.4平衡表（库存） There is no specific analysis content other than the title in the document. 3.5销区水果价格 - As of August 8, the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits is 7.04 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from last week. - The wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.16 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of Kyoho grapes is 11.90 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.21 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of bananas is 5.46 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.16 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of pineapples is 6.77 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.09 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of watermelons is 2.79 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.08 yuan per kilogram from last week. - The wholesale price of citrus is 7.29 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.08 yuan per kilogram from last week [26]. 3.6苹果基差及月间价差情况 - The basis, 10 - 01 spread, and 11 - 01 spread of apples have different values on different dates from July 21 to August 8. For example, on August 8, the basis is - 123, the 10 - 01 spread is 139, and the 11 - 01 spread is - 139 [30]. 3.7苹果加权持仓量、成交量；前20净持仓图 There is no specific analysis content other than the trend chart in the document.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the polypropylene market have changed little and are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. The supply is relatively abundant, the domestic apparent demand has slightly deteriorated, and the cost side is expected to change little in the short term [1][6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions No relevant content provided. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: This week's production met expectations, with few new maintenance devices. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase slightly. The weekly average import volume was 75,000 tons, and the export volume was 37,500 tons, both remaining unchanged from last week. In June, exports were 235,300 tons, and imports were 243,300 tons, also in line with expectations [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand this week was 779,600 tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from last week. Next week, the apparent demand is expected to be around 820,000 tons according to the seasonality [6]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight inventory build - up this week, and it is expected to continue to build up slightly next week. The upstream inventory of some sources decreased slightly, while the total inventory increased [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis showed an overall trend of fluctuating and strengthening, but there were few opportunities. The 1 - 5 monthly spread fluctuated and weakened, and the 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 monthly spreads also showed certain fluctuations [9]. - **Variety Spread**: The spreads between fiber -拉丝, copolymer -拉丝, and injection -拉丝 all increased by 40 yuan/ton. The spread between pellets and powders was too narrow, which had a certain supporting effect on the pellet price [9]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Upstream**: Upstream maintenance is gradually entering the peak period, but the overall supply is still relatively abundant, with a focus on active sales [11]. - **Midstream**: The mid - stream sales situation has slightly deteriorated, and some futures - spot arbitrageurs have opportunities to sell after the market decline [11]. - **Downstream**: The downstream replenishment willingness has deteriorated as they are digesting their previous inventory [11]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a weakly fluctuating thinking, beware of callback risks, and consider a strategy of selling call options. The strategy of going long on PP and short on MA has been recommended to take profit and exit [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent bullish sentiment in commodities has subsided, and some commodities have started to correct. Methanol and olefins have followed suit and basically returned to their previous oscillation price centers. Methanol currently has high upstream profits and low downstream profits, lacking a basis for a significant increase. After the sentiment fades, it will return to fundamentals and enter a weak oscillation pattern. In the long - term, methanol is generally weak due to high supply pressure and sluggish downstream demand growth. The report suggests approaching it with a weak - oscillation mindset [3][89]. - Unilateral strategy: Adopt a weak - oscillation approach and consider a strategy of selling call options. Hedge strategy: Stay on the sidelines [3][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. On Friday, the basis quote was around 09 - 10 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for paper goods in late September was 09 + 23 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - Methanol basis quotes oscillated weakly this week, and the basis quote for paper goods in late September was around 09 + 23 yuan/ton [15]. - The coastal basis of methanol oscillated this week, and the inland basis also oscillated. The inland market prices and the market prices in the northwest region oscillated this week [24][35]. - The spread between East China and inland regions of methanol oscillated weakly [45]. - It is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines regarding spreads [54]. - The PP - 3MA spread rebounded oscillatingly this week. A strategy of going long on PP and short on MA can be considered for a small - scale holding [60]. 3.3 Industry Chain Profits - There are many new methanol maintenance devices, and the methanol operating rate has weakened slightly. Many methanol maintenance devices have resumed production, and methanol production has started to increase [67][69]. - The dimethyl ether operating rate oscillated, the formaldehyde operating rate rebounded oscillatingly, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest region oscillated at a high level [74][77]. - This week, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants oscillated, and MTO profits continued to recover [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Inventory - Methanol slightly destocked at ports and upstream this week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory accumulation speed [85]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The recent bullish sentiment in commodities has subsided, and methanol will enter a weak - oscillation pattern. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation approach, consider a strategy of selling call options for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for the hedge strategy [89][90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report PVC - This week, PVC production slightly increased, and next week, with the resumption of many maintenance devices, production is expected to rise to around 480,000 tons. Exports this week continued to decline, and domestic apparent demand growth may be lower than the expected -2%. Inventory accumulated this week, and if domestic demand remains weak, the inventory accumulation rate may accelerate. Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has deteriorated, and PVC prices have continued to weaken. Upstream开工率 is stable, mid - stream traders are cautious, and downstream开工率 is weak, with low enthusiasm for purchasing [6][10]. Caustic Soda - This week, the production of caustic soda increased due to the resumption of many maintenance devices, and it is expected to continue to increase next week. The export volume in June was less than expected, and the apparent demand this week decreased slightly. The national inventory slightly accumulated this week, and if the apparent demand remains the same next week, it may continue to accumulate. The profit of caustic - chlorine combination has deteriorated, and the price of upstream manufacturers has slightly decreased [107][110][111]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC 3.1.1 Spot Market - This week, PVC production increased from 449,400 tons to 467,400 tons, with an increase of 18,000 tons. The ethylene - based production remained stable at 124,900 tons, while the calcium - carbide - based production increased from 324,600 tons to 342,500 tons. The import volume remained at 15,000 tons per week, and the export volume remained at 57,500 tons per week. The apparent demand increased from 397,700 tons to 400,300 tons. The total inventory increased from 793,300 tons to 818,000 tons, with an increase of 24,600 tons [6]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of PVC slightly strengthened, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated weakly. For example, the basis of East China calcium - carbide method decreased from - 75 yuan/ton to - 93 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 136 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The production profit of calcium carbide and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali have deteriorated. For example, the calcium - carbide production profit in Shaanxi decreased from - 498 yuan/ton to - 510 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased from 94 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton. The export profit has improved, with the FOB Tianjin relative export profit decreasing from 152 yuan/ton to - 1 yuan/ton [9]. 3.1.4 Market Outlook - It is recommended to moderately participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage, have a slightly bearish unilateral allocation, conduct reverse spreads for spreads, and continue the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options for V2509 [10]. 3.2 Caustic Soda 3.2.1 Spot Market - This week, the production of caustic soda increased from 822,500 tons to 833,000 tons, with an increase of 10,500 tons. The import volume remained at 200 tons per week, and the export volume remained at 46,000 tons per week. The apparent demand decreased from 770,800 tons to 767,500 tons. The total inventory (in terms of 100% purity) increased from 233,200 tons to 253,000 tons, with an increase of 19,800 tons [107]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of caustic soda weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread is under observation. For example, the 32% caustic soda basis for the 01 contract decreased from - 61 yuan/ton to - 98 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased from - 90 yuan/ton to - 104 yuan/ton [110]. 3.2.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The profit of the caustic - chlorine combination has deteriorated, and the export profit has strengthened. The profit of Shandong caustic - chlorine combination decreased from 94 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton [110]. 3.2.4 Market Outlook - It is recommended to beware of callback risks for unilateral trading, and there is no suggestion for cash - and - carry arbitrage, spreads, and options for now [111].