Report Scope and Title - The report is a weekly LPG report titled "Geopolitical Conflicts Heat Up Again, Cost drives LPG Higher", dated September 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Report Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions have flared up again, and in the short term, cost will drive LPG to strengthen to a certain extent [6] - OPEC+ is further increasing crude oil production. Although geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, the US and Iran, and the US and Russia may offset the increase to some extent, it does not change the fact that LPG supply remains abundant [6] - On the demand side, the peak season for the blending market is coming to an end, and it will be difficult to maintain high operating rates, so chemical demand may weaken [6] - PDH profits have significantly recovered, and subsequent operating rates may be supported [6] - Overall, LPG supply is very abundant. CP prices may be affected by peak - season stockpiling and strengthen periodically in the short term, but will follow oil prices in the long term. With high supply and the expectation that demand is unlikely to strengthen beyond expectations, the upside for LPG is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs PART 01: LPG Market Review - Propane CP expected average price is $544/ton, down $4/ton from the previous period, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease; butane CP expected average price is $524/ton, down $4/ton from the previous period, a 0.76% month - on - month decrease [5] - Propane CFR South China average price is $587/ton, down $7/ton from the previous period, a 1.18% month - on - month decrease; butane CFR South China average price is $567/ton, down $7/ton from the previous period, a 1.22% month - on - month decrease [5] - Domestic LPG supply has increased slightly. This period's LPG commercial volume is 539,200 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous period, a 0.13% increase [5] - Domestic LPG market demand is expected to increase. With the National Day holiday approaching, downstream still has restocking needs before the holiday, and the holiday will boost combustion consumption. In the chemical field, there are plans to start up plants for olefin and alkane deep - processing, including one alkylation unit and three PDH units, and the demand for ether - after C4 and propane is expected to increase [5] PART 02: LPG Fundamentals LPG Supply - Domestic - Data on the operating rates of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profits of major refineries, and LPG commercial volume in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [11][12] LPG Supply - Import - Data on LPG arrivals in China, import trade margins in the South China region, total monthly LPG imports in China, and LPG imports from different countries from 2021 - 2025 are presented [14][15][16] LPG Inventory - Data on LPG port inventory, refinery capacity utilization ratio, port capacity utilization ratio, factory - level inventory, and sales - to - production ratios in different regions in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [22][23][25] LPG Downstream Industry - Data on PDH unit operating rates, PDH production margins, MTBE isomerization etherification production margins, MTBE export factory capacity utilization rates, alkylation oil capacity utilization rates, and alkylation oil production margins in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [27][29][31] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data Import Cost: CP Forward and Current - Month Prices - Data on propane and butane CP contract prices, CP crude oil price trends, and propane spot prices in South China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [35][36] Spot: Domestic Refinery Civil Gas Prices and Import Premiums - Data on the ex - factory prices of civil LPG at Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao from 2021 - 2025 are presented [38][39][40] PART 04: LPG Other Data - Data on LPG main contract basis, the price difference between the first - and second - month contracts, and registered warehouse receipts at major delivery warehouses from 2021 - 2025 are presented [43][45] Key Strategy Recommendation - Futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The zinc market is currently facing a situation where domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. After the macro - impact fades, zinc prices may have further room to fall [1][7]. Summary according to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The Shanghai zinc futures price first oscillated strongly and then gradually weakened, with a significant decline on Friday night. The market was influenced by the Fed's actions and macro - data, and the zinc's weak fundamentals could not support high prices. The Shanghai - London ratio approached 7.5. The outlook is for prices to oscillate and decline [6][7]. - **Spot Prices**: In Tianjin, zinc prices fell to an acceptable level for downstream buyers, who increased point - price pick - ups for pre - National Day stocking. Inventory decreased, and some smelters were reluctant to sell, leading to a slight increase in the trader's delivery premium. In Shanghai, downstream buyers actively purchased at low prices for stocking, but as some completed stocking and the market rebounded, spot trading weakened [8]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The latest LME zinc inventory was 42,775 tons on September 26 and continued to decline this week. The overseas zinc ingot out - storage was due to a bank's inventory from the previous year [10]. - **Export Profit and Loss**: SMM's new export profit - loss calculations showed a loss of 611 yuan/ton for Southeast Asian warehousing and a profit of 29.5 yuan/ton for Southeast Asian spot (turning from loss to profit) on September 25. There may be a chance of profit in warehousing next week, and zinc products may be exported [14]. 2. Raw Material End - **Processing Fees**: As of September 26, the SMM Zn50 weekly TC average price decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton to 3,650 yuan/metal ton. Domestic zinc mine production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and smelters' winter - stocking demand and miners' profit considerations may lead to a downward adjustment of zinc ore processing fees in October [17][18]. - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: In August 2025, 467,300 tons (physical tons) of zinc concentrate were imported, a 6.8% decrease from July and a 30.06% increase year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 3.5027 million tons (physical tons), a 43.06% increase year - on - year [21]. - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: The total inventory of SMM zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 339,300 tons, a decrease of 84,200 tons from last week, with a significant decline at Fangchenggang Port [26]. 3. Smelting End - **Refined Zinc Import**: In August 2025, China imported 25,656.83 tons of refined zinc, a 43.30% increase from July and a 3.59% decrease year - on - year. Kazakhstan was the largest source of imports, with 20,824.76 tons imported, a 69.97% increase from July and a 67.01% increase year - on - year. Iran was the second - largest source, with a 9.40% year - on - year increase [30]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate remained high, and the improvement in the processing economy of domestic ore led to an increase in the overall start - up rate [31][34]. 4. Demand End - **Refined Zinc Export**: No specific data on refined zinc export was provided other than the relevant charts [38][39]. - **Downstream Production and Start - up Rate**: Terminal orders remained weak, and typhoons affected the Guangdong market. The zinc alloy industry was affected by weak demand and low - price alloy competition. In the zinc oxide market, feed - grade zinc oxide was in the peak season, but rubber - grade and ceramic - grade zinc oxide had general demand [40][44]. - **Downstream Prices and Basic Situation**: The overall sales of galvanized pipes were weak, and inventory increased. Galvanized structural parts showed marginal improvement in consumption compared to August. The overall start - up rate of downstream industries was expected to decline slightly next week [44][45]. 5. Zinc Inventory - **Downstream Inventory**: No specific analysis of downstream inventory other than the relevant charts [49]. - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of September 18, the total inventory of SMM's seven - location zinc ingots was 158,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from September 15. The Shanghai bonded - area inventory was 8,000 tons on September 25, unchanged from the previous period [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - From a policy perspective, after the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the "anti - involution" policy cooled down, and it is currently in the policy - making stage. Pay attention to the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October. It is expected that the policy will have a neutral impact on the market outlook, and the black market will return to supply - demand and reality [2]. - In terms of market rhythm, the basis positive arbitrage has entered the closing cycle. Although the peak season is approaching, the real downstream demand for steel has limited improvement. The manufacturing prosperity level is still below the boom - bust line. High inventories of some varieties and the profit - taking of basis positive arbitrage suppress the spot price. It is expected that the market may experience a situation of "no peak season during the peak season" [3]. - Regarding supply - demand, on the demand side, the high - frequency sales data of new real - estate homes have weakened month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth of new housing starts is still negative. Although there are many infrastructure projects under construction, there is still pressure on funds, and the overall project progress is slow. The concrete delivery volume still shows a year - on - year decrease, and the overall building materials demand is still weak. For coil demand, downstream consumption in industries such as machinery, automobiles, containers, and home appliances is acceptable, and steel mills generally have no pressure in coil orders, with a delivery period of more than 30 days. However, high inventories of galvanized and cold - rolled products affect steel valuations. In terms of exports, the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement that will take effect on October 1, which is expected to have a significant impact on buy - order exports [3]. - In terms of valuation, steel mill profits are acceptable but at a low level, with the production profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils at about 100 - 200 yuan/ton. After the downstream restocking for the National Day is basically over, the long - process cost is stable, and the futures prices of raw materials such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke are adjusted. The market valuation is expected to remain between off - peak and on - peak electricity prices [3]. - For alloys, the supply - side contradiction of ferromanganese silicon is large, and the over - supply pressure is gradually emerging. The medium - to - long - term trend of selling high remains unchanged. The cost line of ferrosilicon is generally judged to be neutral to weak, and the medium - term strategy of selling high for ferrosilicon also remains unchanged. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt pressure of the November contract [4]. - In terms of trends, the black market is expected to adjust in the short term and maintain a volatile trend in the medium term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - From July 2024 to September 2025, multiple policies related to the industrial economy were introduced, including policies for coal production verification, ten key industries' stable growth, and enterprise income tax prepayment declaration optimization [11][16]. 3.2 Market Participant and Pricing Logic Changes - In recent years, the black - market participants and pricing logic have changed significantly. In the spot market, futures and spot are deeply integrated, and basis pricing has a large market scale, with the futures market guiding or even dominating spot pricing. In the futures market, the capital capacity has increased significantly (exceeding 700 billion yuan in 2025), and the involvement of financial capital has increased price volatility. The trading and pricing logic has become "buying expectations and selling reality" [19]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Real Estate - The real - estate investment continues to decline, with the year - on - year decrease in the real - estate development investment completion amount in 2025. The sales of new and second - hand houses have also decreased slightly year - on - year. The new housing starts have a large year - on - year decline, and the construction and completion areas also show negative growth to varying degrees [48][60][67]. 3.3.2 Infrastructure - In July 2025, 905 infrastructure projects were started across the country, with a total investment of about 179.1569 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of investment were Tibet, Anhui, and Fujian. The growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, and the issuance of local government special bonds has shown certain fluctuations [75]. 3.3.3 Manufacturing - The investment intensity in the manufacturing industry has weakened slightly, and the entire downstream industry still faces inventory - reduction pressure. The PMI data has improved. In August 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin manufacturing PMI in August was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from July [99][103]. 3.3.4 Machinery - The construction machinery industry ended a three - year decline in 2024 and achieved a bottom - out recovery. In 2025, the domestic replacement cycle is expected to start gradually. In July 2025, the sales of various excavators were 17,138 units, a year - on - year increase of 25.2%. The sales of other construction machinery such as graders, rollers, and pavers also showed different trends [109][111]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Strategy**: Steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend; short iron ore at high prices and hold; the coking coal and coke futures prices may fluctuate and rise in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on dips; sell high for ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon in the medium term (without chasing short positions) [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Participate in the positive arbitrage of iron ore 1 - 5 contracts at low prices; maintain a high spread between coils and rebar; pay attention to the long - term recovery of the steel - ore price ratio under production restrictions; hedge the risk of short positions in far - month ferromanganese silicon with long positions in near - month ferrosilicon [5]. - **Spot - Futures Strategy**: Pay attention to the closing of basis positive arbitrage and the establishment of reverse arbitrage positions for steel during the peak season [5]. - **Options Strategy**: Close the profitable wide - spread options on near - month steel contracts and continue to establish short positions in far - month wide - spread options [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For PVC, this week's production slightly increased and was slightly higher than expected, with an expected increase next week as previously shut - down units resume. Export orders increased slightly this week, but domestic demand is weak. The overall chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has started to weaken, mainly due to the weakening of caustic soda and the strengthening of calcium carbide prices. Strategies include paying attention to spot - futures arbitrage opportunities, a bearish configuration after a rebound for single - side trading, and temporarily observing the 1 - 5 spread [6][9][10]. - For caustic soda, this week's production maintained a high level with a slight increase, and it is expected to continue rising next week. The overall inventory slightly increased this week, and there may be a slight de - stocking next week if production fails to meet expectations. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to guard against callback risks. The 1 - 5 spread is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities [103][106][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC 3.1.1 Spot Market - PVC prices showed an oscillating trend this week. The prices of related products such as caustic soda 32% decreased, while the prices of some calcium carbide and liquid chlorine increased. For example, the price of caustic soda 32% dropped from 770 yuan/ton last week to 760 yuan/ton this week, and the price of Shandong liquid chlorine increased from - 200 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton [7]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The basis oscillated. For example, the basis of East China calcium carbide method increased from - 170 yuan/ton last week to - 157 yuan/ton this week. The 1 - 5 spread oscillated, and the 9 - 1 spread increased from 421 to 433 [9]. 3.1.3 Industry Chain Profit - The overall chlor - alkali comprehensive profit started to weaken. The production profit of calcium carbide in Shaanxi decreased from - 358 yuan/ton to - 398 yuan/ton. The export profit slightly improved, with the theoretical export profit to India increasing from 740 yuan/ton to 782 yuan/ton [9]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - Production: This week's total production was 47.96 million tons, an increase of 1.87 million tons from last week. The production of ethylene - based method was 14.06 million tons, and that of calcium carbide - based method was 33.90 million tons. Next week, production is expected to continue increasing [6]. - Demand: This week's apparent demand was 42.50 million tons, slightly lower than the expected value. The expected apparent demand for next week is 42.53 million tons. The domestic apparent demand growth rate in September may be lower than the expected 2% [6]. - Inventory: This week, the old - sample inventory increased by 1.21 million tons, and the new - sample inventory of middle - stream traders increased by 1.75 million tons. If calculated based on the current production and apparent demand, inventory is expected to increase next week [6]. 3.2 Caustic Soda 3.2.1 Spot Market - The price of caustic soda 32% decreased from 770 yuan/ton last week to 760 yuan/ton this week. The price of Shandong liquid chlorine increased from - 200 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong raw salt remained stable at 210 yuan/ton [7][104]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - The basis strengthened. For example, the 32% caustic soda basis of the 01 contract increased from - 235 yuan/ton last week to - 153 yuan/ton this week. The 1 - 5 spread decreased from - 82 to - 95, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [106]. 3.2.3 Industry Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased from - 143 yuan/ton to - 260 yuan/ton. The profit of external sales of caustic soda and liquid chlorine improved, and the profit of supporting PVC enterprises showed a weakening trend [106]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - Production: This week's total production was 81.29 million tons, a slight increase from last week. It is expected to continue increasing next week [103]. - Demand: This week's apparent demand was about 74.24 million tons, and it is estimated to be about 77.53 million tons next week based on historical data [103]. - Inventory: The national inventory slightly increased this week. If production fails to meet expectations next week, there may be a slight de - stocking [103].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include partial production cuts in some surveyed areas and possible impacts of rainy weather on jujube quality in some areas. Negative factors are high inventory, abundant market supply, the off - season for consumption in September, and the likelihood of a normal but relatively small - yield year according to the survey results [4] - This week, the temperature in the main production areas of Xinjiang grey jujubes is between 10°C - 28°C, and the jujube trees are in the sugar - increasing period. There is no extreme weather in the weather forecast, but attention should be paid to rainfall during the sugar - increasing period and changes in jujube fruit quality. In the sales areas, the daily arrival of goods is about 3 trucks, the price of high - quality goods is strong, and the market trading atmosphere is average. The average price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei this week is 10.39 yuan/kg, and the average price of first - grade jujubes is 9.50 yuan/kg, with the mainstream price unchanged from last week [4] - The trading strategy suggests short - term waiting and seeing for single - side trading, and no recommendations for monthly spread, volatility, and options trading [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price (Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in the main production areas of Xinjiang is 5.33 yuan/kg. The mainstream transaction price in Aksu is 4.8 yuan/kg, in Alar is 5.2 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar is 6.0 yuan/kg [6] Spot Price (Main Sales Areas) - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, about 10 trucks of goods arrived at the parking area this week. The supply of goods in the market is small, the market trading atmosphere is average, the spot price fluctuates slightly, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. The market grade prices are as follows: super - special grade is 11.50 - 12.50 yuan/kg, special - grade is 9.70 - 11.70 yuan/kg, first - grade is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg, second - grade is 7.80 - 8.60 yuan/kg, and third - grade is 6.30 - 7.00 yuan/kg [10] Spot Price (Hebei Cangzhou) - The spot grade price difference in the Hebei Cangzhou market is stable compared to the previous week. The price difference between special - grade and first - grade jujubes is 1.02 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg compared to last week. The price difference between first - grade and second - grade jujubes is 1.2 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [13] Sample Point Weekly Inventory - According to the survey data of Mysteel Agricultural Products, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9,203 tons, a decrease of 44 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 84.80%. The inventory of sample points has decreased [16] Sales Profit (Xinjiang Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in the main production areas of Xinjiang is 5.33 yuan/kg, and the price of first - grade finished products in the Hebei sales market is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 600 - 630 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is equivalent to 2.36 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [19] Futures - Spot Basis (Special - Grade, First - Grade) - The futures price of jujubes has risen significantly, the spot price is stable, and the futures - spot basis has weakened slightly. The first - grade spot in Cangzhou has a discount of 585 yuan/ton compared to the standard delivery product [22] Contract Spread - No specific summary information provided other than the data charts Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of September 26, the number of registered warehouse receipts for jujubes is 6,743, and the number of valid forecasts is 58, totaling 6,801 [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the caustic soda futures showed a significant downward trend, with short - sellers actively increasing positions to push down the futures price, and there were stop - loss phenomena among long - sellers. The main reasons include weak spot prices, the non - decline of liquid chlorine prices contrary to expectations, and the continuous decline of alumina spot and futures prices. In the later stage, the caustic soda futures may be supported by the liquid chlorine price, especially during the National Day holiday. Therefore, the caustic soda futures should be treated with a volatile mindset [5]. Summary by Directory 01 Overview - **Supply**: In the period from September 19 - 25, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.5%, a 0.6% week - on - week increase. Northwest had new device production cuts and maintenance, while North China and East China had increased loads after device maintenance. Next week, except for the Southwest region, other six regions are expected to increase their loads, with an estimated capacity utilization rate of about 85.9% and a weekly output of about 845,700 tons [5]. - **Demand - Alumina**: China's alumina production was 1.855 million tons, a decline from last week's 1.861 million tons. Shandong's alumina production remained flat at 626,000 tons. The liquid caustic soda purchase price of large - scale alumina factories in Shandong dropped to 740 yuan/ton, with a 100% converted price of 2,313 yuan/ton. Alumina prices and production profits declined recently [5]. - **Demand - Viscose Staple Fiber**: China's viscose staple fiber production was 90,000 tons, a 30 - ton increase from last week. As of September 25, 2025, the total daily output of 20 domestic viscose staple fiber enterprises was around 12,960 tons. The physical inventory of domestic viscose staple fiber factories was 128,200 tons, a 50 - ton decrease from the previous period and a 32,000 - ton increase compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 33.26%. The downstream demand for viscose staple fiber was weak [5]. - **Demand - Printing and Dyeing**: As of September 25, 2025, the comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.15%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. The average startup rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Zhejiang was 66.25%, remaining flat compared to the previous data and a 1.25% increase year - on - year. The overall startup rate of dyeing factories in Zhejiang remained stable, with orders featuring "short, frequent, and fast" characteristics. Most dyeing factories planned to have a 2 - 3 - day holiday during the National Day [5]. - **Export**: In August, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 213,500 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 66,800 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 391,200 tons (wet tons), a 3.4% week - on - week increase and a 26.26% year - on - year increase. The storage capacity ratio of domestic liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 20.78%, a 0.64% week - on - week increase [5]. - **Profit**: This Friday, the average price of Shandong liquid caustic soda was 2,500 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was - 100 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 306 yuan/ton, at a historically low level. The decline in liquid caustic soda prices compressed the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [5]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a volatile mindset for single - side trading; no strategy for arbitrage and options [5]. 02 Price - The report presents price trends of Shandong chlor - alkali spot, flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, caustic soda futures, basis, inter - month spreads, raw salt, and coal, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [7][10][13][16] 03 Supply - **Caustic Soda Supply**: Data on China's weekly caustic soda production, caustic soda startup rate, caustic soda device loss volume, and cumulative caustic soda production are provided, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [20][21] - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Chlor - Alkali Profit**: Information on the liquid caustic soda inventory of Chinese sample enterprises, caustic soda futures warehouse receipts, and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprise profits is presented, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [23][24] - **Chlor - Alkali Device Maintenance Plan**: This week, many chlor - alkali devices have resumed operation after maintenance, and there are also some devices under maintenance. In the future, multiple enterprises have maintenance plans, including specific time and capacity information [26] 04 Demand - **Alumina Industry**: Data on China's alumina production, Shandong's alumina production, alumina profit, Shandong alumina enterprises' liquid caustic soda purchase price, and alumina inventory are provided, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [29][30][31][32] - **Textile Industry**: Information on viscose staple fiber capacity utilization rate, market price, factory inventory, inventory available days of viscose staple fiber in Chinese rayon yarn enterprises, textile enterprise weekly startup rate, order days, in - factory finished product inventory available days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang region printing and dyeing factory startup rate is presented, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [34][35][37][38] - **Pulp and Paper Industry**: Data on pulp production, paper product production, and the inventory available days of paper products in upstream factories are provided, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [39][40] - **Export**: Data on China's monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, cumulative export volume of caustic soda, and monthly export volume of caustic soda are presented, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [41][42]

2025 . 9 . 2 8 中泰期货研究所 ：郭庆 从业资格号：F3049926 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0016007 （数据更新时间截止至每周五23：59） 目 录 CONTEN T S 0 1 综述 0 2 价格 0 3 供应 0 4 需求 综述 01 | 产业链 | | | 2025年9月19日-9月 2025年9月26日-10 | 2025年10月3日-10 | 2025年10月10日-10月 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 25日 | 月2日 | 月9日 | 16日 | | | 供应 | 周度日均产量：万 | 20.02 | 20.00 | 20.14 | 19.57 | 上周新增4家企业停车，停车企业恢复3家，本周预计0家 企业计划检修，2家停车企业恢复生产(预估数据来自隆众 | | | 吨 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 资讯） | | | 农业需求 | 秋季小麦肥需求 | 秋季小麦肥需求 | 秋季小麦肥需求 | 秋季小麦肥需求 | 当前农业需求陆续释放 | | | | | | | | 202 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international sugar market is under supply pressure, with the increasing production pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and the pressure from the beet harvest. The supply side remains bearish, and the demand shows a slowdown, leading to a weak and downward - trending sugar price [5]. - The domestic sugar market is in a downward trend, fluctuating around the 5500 mark. Trading volume is not significantly enlarged, and the basis is relatively strong. At the end of the season, domestic sugar stocks are gradually being cleared, which supports the futures price. Before the National Day, funds are mainly flowing out, and the decline of futures sugar slows down [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking and Display 1.1 Spot Prices and Basis in Production Areas - Spot prices in production areas such as Guangxi Nanning, Yunnan Kunming, and Yingkou are in a downward - trending and fluctuating state. The basis in these areas is also expected to weaken, with the basis in Nanning, Kunming, and Yingkou showing a decline this week compared to last week [2][4]. 1.2 Inter - month Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou sugar is in a short - term weak and fluctuating state, with a slight rebound this week [11]. 1.3 Domestic - Foreign Spreads - The import cost is relatively low. Although the import profit within the quota has shrunk, it is still relatively large [15]. 2. Overview of Key Market Data 2.1 International Market Key Data - **Brazil**: The sugar production in Brazil has entered the peak season, with a high cane - to - sugar ratio. However, attention should be paid to the sugar content in cane and the cane crushing volume. The sugar export in Brazil has slightly slowed down. The production in Thailand and India has not started yet, but the expected increase in production will bring pressure to the market [20][26][29]. 2.2 Domestic Market Key Data - **Production and Consumption**: China's sugar production is expected to increase, and consumption is expected to slightly increase. The production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar have turned bearish, with the inventory decreasing but the speed slowing down. The import volume of sugar has increased, and the import volume in August increased month - on - month. The import of syrup/pre - mixed powder in August decreased month - on - month [5][33][36][38][40]. - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand is not bad but not outstanding either. Attention should be paid to the seasonal demand in the downstream market, which shows a situation of "peak season not prosperous" during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day [42][45].

矿端扰动超预期，铜价偏强运行 沪铜周度报告·2025年9月28日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 01 周度综述：宏观/周度数据/多空逻辑/风险提示 02 铜产业链解析：价格/价差/成本/利润/供给/需求/库存 CONTENTS 资金持仓：外盘持仓CFTC/LME 03 Part 01 周度综述 | | 项目 | | | | | 周度数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 铜精矿现货TC（美元/ 吨 ） | -40.8 | -40.36 | 0.44 | 1.08% | Grasberg生产事故扰动市场 但因印尼已实施出口禁令 对国内铜矿供应影响有限 ， ， ， 现货TC小幅反弹 后续重点关注对11月长单谈判的影响 ， 。 | | 供给端 | 精废价差（元/吨） | 1917 | 2337 | 420 | ...

中泰期货苹果市场表现与基本面周度报告 姓名：梁作盼 期货从业资格号：F3048593 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0015589 联系电话： 17615857579 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 2025-09-28 本周观点 本页数据来源:卓创资讯 中泰期货整理 | 利多因素 | 1、新季苹果个头同比偏小；2、新季苹果价格有高开预期；4、山东产区晚熟富士质量或偏差（果锈偏多）；4、西部部分产区质量偏差 | | --- | --- | | 利空因素 | 1、新季苹果产量同比去年基本持平；2、高开秤价不利于消费；3、市场替代水果价格偏低 | | 市 | 产区方面：山东红将军进入尾声，西部采青逐步上市，价格偏高。晚熟富士方面，9月下旬，东部、西部产区逐步进入大量摘袋阶段。 | | 场 | 据调研，山东产区晚熟富士果锈较前期预期偏多，水裂纹发生率暂时偏低；西部产区果面洁净度稍有偏差，但仍在正常年份水平，局 | | 基 | | | 本 | 部产区水裂纹发生严重（水裂纹现象或是前期干旱，9月份阴雨天气偏多导致）。据天气预报，部分苹果产区有阴雨天气，需重点关 | ...