投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-03 供给扰动升温，⿊⾊⼤幅反弹 继唐⼭减排要求趋严后，"反内卷"进⼀步强化供给减量预期，乐观 情绪主导市场，现货和期货共振上⾏。与此同时，炉料也表现强势， 形成正反馈驱动。此前⿊⾊基本⾯处于相对均衡状态，各环节⽭盾均 不明显，铁⽔维持⾼位，钢材保持低库存，因此反弹较为顺畅。此次 利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库，提升现货流动性。后续则需 要关注政策具体落实情况以及淡季终端需求，预计整体维持偏强状态 但涨势放缓。 ⿊⾊：供给扰动升温，⿊⾊⼤幅反弹 继唐山减排要求趋严后，"反内卷"进一步强化供给减量预期，乐观 情绪主导市场，现货和期货共振上行。与此同时，炉料也表现强势， 形成正反馈驱动。此前黑色基本面处于相对均衡状态，各环节矛盾均 不明显，铁水维持高位，钢材保持低库存，因此反弹较为顺畅。此次 利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库，提升现货流动性。后续则需 要关注政策具体落实情况以及淡季终端需求，预计整体维持偏强状态 但涨势放缓。 1、铁元素方面，小样本钢企铁水微降，短期无大幅下行驱动。到港 环比下降叠加需求高位，港口 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the stock index futures market, the concept of "anti - involution competition" is emerging, boosting policy expectations. The market is in the first stage of trading policy expectations, and the "policy bottom" of commodity prices may have appeared, which is beneficial to the inflation chain. There is a potential risk of market - capitalization style shifting to large - cap stocks. It is recommended to take profits on IM long positions at high prices and consider arbitrage opportunities [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, due to low liquidity, low volatility, and ineffective sentiment indicators, the market trend is likely to be volatile, and a covered - call defensive strategy is recommended [2][6]. - In the treasury bond futures market, bond market sentiment is warming up. The easing of the capital market at the beginning of the month and the reduction in the issuance scale of some treasury bonds are positive factors. However, the central bank's cautious liquidity injection and the potential high supply of new local bonds in July may limit the decline in interest rates, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [3][7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The concept of "anti - involution competition" has emerged, with a focus on industries such as cement, polysilicon, and coal. Commodity futures have risen first, driving up related sectors in the stock market, and funds have flowed out of small - cap growth sectors. The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have shown changes in basis, inter - delivery spreads, and positions [1][6]. - **Logic**: The current supply - demand pattern remains loose, and supply has not been substantially cleared. The "policy bottom" of commodity prices may have appeared, and there is a potential risk of market - capitalization style shifting to large - cap stocks [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Take profits on IM long positions at high prices and consider long - far - month and short - near - month arbitrage opportunities. The overall suggestion is to wait and see [1][6]. Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The trading volume of the options market has continued to decline, and trading liquidity is lower than expected. The average implied volatility of each option variety has decreased by 0.05%, and sentiment indicators are not guiding [2][6]. - **Logic**: Low liquidity and volatility, along with ineffective sentiment indicators, suggest that the index has resistance above, and the market trend is likely to be volatile [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a covered - call defensive strategy [2][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Treasury bond futures rose collectively. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inter - delivery spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts. The central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 3653 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [7]. - **Logic**: At the beginning of the month, the capital market continued to ease, and the issuance scale of some treasury bonds decreased, which improved bond market sentiment. However, the central bank's cautious attitude towards liquidity injection and the potential high supply of new local bonds in July limit the decline in interest rates [3][7][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a volatile trend strategy. For hedging, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis trading, appropriately pay attention to basis widening. For the yield curve, the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [8]. Economic Calendar - On June 30, 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7, up from the previous value of 49.5 [9]. - On July 1, 2025, the final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI for June was 52.9, higher than the previous value and the forecast value of 52 [9]. - On July 3, 2025, the US will release data on the unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls for June, with forecast values of 4.30% and 11.3 million respectively [9]. Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Macroeconomics**: The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan project list for this year has been fully released, covering multiple key areas [9]. - **Commodities**: The Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association stated that the polysilicon market showed signs of recovery this week, with the average market price rising slightly [10]. Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific content for in - depth analysis is provided in the text for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures market monitoring.

推动无序产能出清预期强烈,多晶硅多合约涨停 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 风险提示 风险因素:供应端超预期复产;供给端政策变动 研究员: 在宏观情绪带动下，多晶硅期货价格先御后扬，7月2日多合约旅停，主力合约收于36050元/吨。工业硅主力合约价格也上涨4.8%收盘至8210元/吨。7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次 会议强调要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出，市场对光伏行业"反内卷"和共龄则风草的关注再度升温。尽管短期内基本面示现直营改善，但政策信号激发市场情绪, 推动硅价大幅上扬。 基本面情况 从基本面来看，多晶硅供应端仍存在复产预期，西南地区已有部分产能恢复，内蒙古、新疆、青海部分产能亦可能陆续回归，0-7月目度供应或超10万吨。在政策未正式落地前，优势企 业或倾向通过技术路线增强竞争力，推动中小产能加速出清。需求方面，需关注光伏装机潜在走弱网验，1-5月装机同比大幅增长、抢装动能释放偏早；下半年若装机节奏放缓，将反向握影 硅抖需求。现货价格方面，硅料企业近期也基于自律符局统一上嗣报价，不过实际成交有限。整体来看，供增需弱的陷局未变，当前价格冲高速多受政策领取驱动， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The relaxation of the Sci - tech Innovation Board's new - share subscription system is expected to increase new - share subscription opportunities. The policy expanding the scope of the fifth listing standard on the Sci - tech Innovation Board may encourage more technology companies to list, increasing institutional offline new - share subscription opportunities [2]. - In June, the number of institutional participants in the inquiry increased marginally, and the activity was higher than the average level in the first half of the year. With the continuous loosening of IPO policies, more institutional investors are expected to participate in the offline new - share subscription market, but the winning rate may remain low [2]. - In June, both the hedging and new - share subscription ends saw a recovery in returns, and the overall strategy return increased month - on - month. For example, with a 200 - million - yuan stock bottom position, the monthly new - share subscription return rate for the main board and the STAR Market and ChiNext was about 1.02%, and the return from new - share subscription alone was about 0.9% [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 New - share Subscription Rules - On June 18, the CSRC issued an opinion to enhance the system's inclusiveness and adaptability on the Sci - tech Innovation Board. It expanded the scope of the fifth listing standard, allowing unprofitable companies in more cutting - edge technology fields such as artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, and low - altitude economy to list. As of early July, some unprofitable companies have applied to list on the Sci - tech Innovation Board [2]. 3.2 Market Environment - In June, 3 out of 6 new stocks belonged to the TMT sector, and 2 belonged to the new energy and automotive sectors. The technology and electrical concepts attracted high institutional attention. On June 20, Everbright Wealth Management entered the new - share subscription market through hybrid products, marking the official entry of wealth management funds into the market [2]. 3.3 New - share Subscription Returns - In June, with a 200 - million - yuan stock bottom position, the monthly new - share subscription return rate for the main board and the STAR Market and ChiNext was about 1.02%, and the return from new - share subscription alone was about 0.9%. In May, the strategy's decline was affected by the convergence of IF discount. In June, due to the ex - dividend disturbance, the IF basis declined, and the hedging end obtained a small amount of additional return. Three new stocks on the main board had a first - day increase of more than 2.5 times, contributing to the increase in strategy returns [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual energy and chemical products, ratings such as "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" are used based on the expected price movements within the next 2 - 12 weeks [268]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market currently lacks a clear mainline. The increase in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI reflects the boost from the suspension of the Sino - US trade war, but the employment and raw material inventory indexes are relatively weak. The progress of the US - Iran negotiation has stagnated, which may disrupt the crude oil market again. The overall chemical industry continues to oscillate, and factors like the Caixin PMI index and device start - stop news are used for short - term trading. The report suggests an oscillating approach towards the energy and chemical market, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Middle East exports increased significantly in June, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's production resolution this weekend. On July 1st, international oil prices rose, and the market is concerned about the OPEC+ meeting. Saudi Arabia's June crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day to 6.33 million barrels per day. Brazil's May oil and gas production increased year - on - year, and Kazakhstan's June crude oil production recovered and reached a historical high. The US API data shows a decrease in total oil inventory, which is beneficial for oil prices. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [4]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The market has returned to trading the loose fundamentals, and the PG market may oscillate weakly. On July 1st, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4,200 yuan/ton. The supply - demand pattern is loose, with increasing liquefied gas and civil gas volumes, low downstream replenishment willingness during the off - season, and limited follow - up increments in chemical demand. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price oscillates, waiting for negative factors to materialize. The futures price follows the crude oil price, and factors such as OPEC+ potential over - production in August, increased supply from Venezuela and Iran, and weak demand may put pressure on the asphalt price. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [4][5]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to fully materialize. OPEC+ may over - produce in August, and the decrease in natural gas prices may reduce the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. The increase in heavy oil supply and the weakening of geopolitical factors are negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [6]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil price follows the crude oil price down. It is affected by factors such as the weakening of the gasoline - diesel spread, shipping demand decline, and green energy substitution. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, following the crude oil price [7]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The port price has weakened significantly, and methanol oscillates. On July 1st, the methanol price oscillated. The domestic main production areas showed a weak downward trend, with increased port inventory and weakening basis. The coal price has an impact on production costs, and the MTO profit is low. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [16][17]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, and it depends on exports. On July 1st, the urea price was stable. The domestic demand is weak, and the market is mainly trading the supply - demand imbalance. The export is expected to drive the market. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the short term, waiting for new market drivers [17]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: With low inventory, it continues to oscillate and consolidate. On July 1st, the ethylene glycol price was weak, and the basis strengthened. The future arrival volume is expected to increase, and the shutdown of a bottle - chip device will reduce the demand. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [12]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is temporarily stable, and PX oscillates strongly. On July 1st, the PX price and related indicators are given. In the short term, the cost of PX may weaken due to the potential weakening of crude oil, and the supply - demand side is affected by device maintenance. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [9]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supply - demand weakens, and the cost - side PX is strong, so PTA oscillates. On July 1st, the PTA price and processing fees are provided. The crude oil price may decline, which has a weak impact on PTA. The supply is tight, but the demand from downstream factories may decrease. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with the supply - demand margin weakening but following the cost - side in the short term [9]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The short - fiber processing fee is supported, the basis is stable, and the absolute value follows the raw material's fluctuations. On July 1st, the short - fiber futures performed better than the raw material PTA. The industry has no major contradictions, and the key is whether the recent weak sales will continue. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [13][14]. Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance has gradually started, and the bottle - chip processing fee has bottomed out. On July 1st, the polyester raw material futures declined slightly, and the bottle - chip market was active. The reduction in supply due to maintenance limits the further decline of the processing fee. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with the absolute value following the raw material and limited further compression of the processing fee [14][15]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance increase is limited, and PP oscillates in the short term. On July 1st, the PP price oscillated, and the basis was stable. The cost is affected by the crude oil price, the supply is increasing, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [21][22]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance support is limited, and plastic oscillates. On July 1st, the LLDPE price oscillated weakly, and the basis strengthened. The decline in oil prices, the increase in supply, and the weak demand from downstream industries are the main factors. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [20]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: In the vacuum period of driving factors, styrene oscillates narrowly. On July 1st, the styrene price declined, and the basis strengthened. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the pure - benzene fundamentals are marginally improving. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [10]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC oscillates. The macro - level risk preference has improved, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity, off - season demand, and limited export growth. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with a bearish supply - demand expectation and a preference for short - selling [23]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Liquid chlorine is under pressure, and caustic soda rebounds weakly. The short - term price oscillates, supported by improved risk preference and increased cost, but pressured by the bearish supply - demand expectation in July - August. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the short term, with a preference for short - selling in the long term [24]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., are provided, showing different changes [26]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are given, with corresponding changes [27]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc., are presented, showing different changes [29]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring for methanol, urea, styrene, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, asphalt, crude oil, LPG, fuel oil, LLDPE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda but does not provide specific data summaries in the content [30][42][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three metals (industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate) are rated as "oscillating" [4][6][10] Core Viewpoints - The hype about industrial silicon production cuts has cooled down, leading to a decline in new energy metal prices. In the short - to - medium term, as the smelting profit of industrial silicon recovers and the scale of production cuts shrinks, the prices of new energy metals have risen and then fallen. It is advisable to continue to bet on volatility with wide - straddle options. In the long term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties [1] - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to oscillate. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but there is a possibility of re - accumulation [4][5] - For polysilicon, the price will show wide - range oscillations. The short - term supply is low, but the demand may weaken in the second half of the year [8][9] - For lithium carbonate, the price will maintain oscillations. The supply is in excess, but the short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports the price [10] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - As of July 2, the spot price has slightly increased. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, with a 0.2% month - on - month decrease. In May 2025, the monthly production was 308,000 tons, a 2.3% month - on - month increase and a 24.6% year - on - year decrease. The export volume in May was 55,652 tons, an 8.0% month - on - month decrease and a 22.5% year - on - year decrease. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May was 92.9GW, a 105.5% month - on - month increase and a 388.0% year - on - year increase [4] - If the production cut scope expands in July, the supply - demand situation may improve marginally; otherwise, the oversupply pressure is difficult to relieve. The demand is weak, and the inventory may re - accumulate. The silicon price has fallen after rising, and manufacturers can consider hedging by selling at high prices. The future silicon price will oscillate [5] Polysilicon - The成交 price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 32,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 34,400 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The number of warehouse receipts has not changed. In May, the export volume increased by 66.2% month - on - month and decreased by 30% year - on - year, while the import volume decreased by 16.9% month - on - month. From January to May, the new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 150% year - on - year [6] - The supply news is volatile, and the production is currently low. With the arrival of the wet season, the production in the southwest may increase. The demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The price will show wide - range oscillations [7][8][9] Lithium Carbonate - On July 1, the closing price of the main contract increased by 0.84% to 62,780 yuan. The total position decreased by 4,592 lots. The spot price remained unchanged. Zhongkuang Resources plans to upgrade its production line, with a 6 - month shutdown. [9] - The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to be good in July despite it being a traditional off - season. The social inventory is accumulating, and the warehouse receipt inventory is decreasing. The price will maintain oscillations [10] 2. Market Monitoring - The report only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate in the market monitoring section but does not provide specific content [11][17][28]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 | | | | 海外商品涨跌幅 | | | | | | 塑料 | | 7249 | -0.17% | -0.73% | -0.17% | 1.38% | -11.36% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | | PP | 7044 | -0.37% | -0.83% | -0.37% | -0.75% | -5.79% | | 能源 | NYMEX WTI原油 | 64.97 | -0.15% | -0.15% | | 2.85% | -9.60% | | | PVC | 4821 | -1.39% | -1.99% | -1.39% | -2.82% | -8.87% | | | ICE布油 | 66.63 | 0.44% | 0.44% | | 1.22% | -10.9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [6] - **Pigs**: Oscillating [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [13] - **Sugar**: Oscillating (short - term), Oscillating weakly (long - term) [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating weakly [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market is generally in a state of oscillation. Each variety is affected by different factors, including supply, demand, weather, and policy. For example, the oils and fats market may continue to oscillate weakly due to factors such as good soybean growth and the palm oil production season, while protein meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term with cost support [5][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The U.S. soybean planting area is lower than expected, but the current growth is good. - **Industry Information**: As of June 29, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. The 2025 U.S. soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than the expected 83.655 million acres. As of June 1, 2025, the U.S. old - crop soybean inventory was 1.01 billion bushels, up 4% year - on - year [5]. - **Logic**: The U.S. soybean planting area being slightly lower than expected and the quarterly inventory being higher than expected offset each other. The macro - environment has uncertainties, and the industrial side shows that U.S. soybean growth is good, and the palm oil production pressure may decrease marginally in June. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the oils and fats may continue to oscillate weakly, but factors such as trade uncertainties and the expected increase in overseas biodiesel consumption of oils may support prices [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The strong Brazilian soybean premium provides cost support for the Dalian soybean meal futures. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes showed different changes. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 41.63 yuan/ton, up 3.71% week - on - week [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the U.S. soybean area is in line with expectations, but the quarterly inventory is increased. Brazil's soybean exports are strong, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, soybean arrivals increase, oil mills' inventory accumulates, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, but cost support exists in the long - run [6]. - **Outlook**: The U.S. soybean is expected to oscillate in a range. Domestic soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price points on dips [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The imported corn auction was sold at a premium, and the spot price remains firm. - **Industry Information**: The Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the domestic corn average price was 2438 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [7]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is mainly rising. The trade volume is reluctant to sell, and the demand is squeezed by wheat. The imported corn auction has limited volume and was sold at a premium. New - crop corn growth is affected by weather [8]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the supply - demand gap expectation, the price may rise, but there may be callbacks due to potential negative impacts of policy - grain auctions [8]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the impact of subsequent rainfall needs attention. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the Henan live pig (foreign ternary) price was 15.15 yuan/kg, up 1% month - on - month, and the live pig futures closing price was 13,865 yuan/ton, down 0.04% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but farmers still have the intention to hold back. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets is increasing, and in the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The demand is weak, and the inventory is partially transferred [9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate. Although the average slaughter weight is decreasing, farmers' intention to hold back still exists, and it is currently the off - season for consumption [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The rubber price rose in the afternoon following the overall commodity trend. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Vietnam's natural rubber exports in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 18% year - on - year [10][11]. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market rose, and the rubber price followed. The raw material price is firm, providing bottom - support. The supply is expected to increase, but the demand is expected to decrease [11]. - **Outlook**: Before new fundamental guidance emerges, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price followed the overall commodity trend, first falling and then rising. - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is relatively warm, and the futures price is stable and oscillating. The fundamental trading is not significant, and it mainly follows the trend of natural rubber and the overall commodity market. The overall operating level has declined, and the inventory has slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures has slowed down due to the upward revision of the U.S. cotton planting area. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,211, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2][13]. - **Logic**: In the new - crop season, the production of China and other major cotton - producing countries is expected to increase. The U.S. cotton planting area is revised upward. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing support [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Due to the lack of positive factors, the sugar price continues to lack upward momentum. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [15]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar - making season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated imported sugar arrivals. Internationally, the new - crop production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase [15]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected supply surplus. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the pulp futures maintain a weak operation. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [16]. - **Logic**: The pulp import volume remains high, the price is in a downward trend, the demand is in the off - season, and the domestic inventory is high. The pulp price is under pressure to fall, but it is risky to short at the current low level [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules [16]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The market has returned to fundamental - driven, and the far - month contracts oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The inventory has decreased due to reduced arrivals, but it is the consumption off - season. The short - term fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the far - month contracts are expected to be weak due to the weak fundamentals [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The far - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly [17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report also lists the sections for data monitoring of various varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [20][39][52]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weak", with corresponding explanations of expected price changes and the time period being the next 2 - 12 weeks [169].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation", and the ratings for various varieties are also mainly "oscillation" [8][10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflict disturbances have weakened, and the focus of black commodity trading has shifted to the domestic market. During the off - season, hot metal production has increased. Against the backdrop of low valuations, furnace materials have rebounded from oversold levels. However, the construction and manufacturing industries in China have entered the off - season, and steel demand and inventory are gradually under pressure. Tangshan's emission reduction has a short - term impact on supply, with limited overall influence, and prices have re - entered an oscillatory state [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - Tangshan's stricter emission reduction requirements have led to a weakening of furnace materials and a strengthening of steel prices. The impact on hot metal needs continuous observation. The market is cautious, especially as steel is in the off - season with signs of weakening demand, so the unilateral increase in prices is small. Coking coal and coke have declined more than iron ore due to the resumption of coal mines and emission reduction [1][2] 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: This week, the shipments from overseas mines and the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased month - on - month, with less pressure on the supply side. Although there is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the coming weeks due to previous shipments from overseas mines, the amplitude is limited [3][10][11] - Demand: Steel mills' profitability remains high, and there is no driving force for hot metal to reduce production due to profit reasons. However, Tangshan's emission reduction may affect short - term ore demand, but its impact on medium - and long - term iron ore demand is small [3][10][11] 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Affected by the resumption of coal mines, the reduction of the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal in the third quarter, and Tangshan's emission reduction news, the market was weak. The supply recovery is slow, demand is expected to decline, and there is still pressure on mine - end inventory reduction, with limited upward price drivers [3][14] - Coke: The spot market sentiment has improved, and inventory has been further reduced. However, affected by supply - demand rumors, the market oscillated weakly. Supply has decreased slightly, and there is a risk of a decline in short - term hot metal production, so the upward price space is limited [13] 3.4 Alloys - Manganese Silicon: The price increase of port ore is limited. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may decrease. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and prices are expected to oscillate [4][7] - Ferrosilicon: The current supply - demand relationship is healthy, but there is a possibility of supply - demand gap narrowing in the future. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] 3.5 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Off - season demand is declining, supply pressure exists, and the market is affected by sentiment, with prices expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes, cold - repair conditions, and demand sustainability [7][15] - Soda Ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][15][17] 3.6 Steel - Affected by Tangshan's emission reduction news, steel prices rose at the end of the session. Supply has positive factors, but demand is under off - season pressure. Overall supply and demand have weakened month - on - month, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on gold and a cautiously bullish view on silver in the second half of the year [1][3] - If the non - farm payroll data and tariff progress do not deteriorate significantly, gold may need to consolidate within a range this month; if they deteriorate significantly, the gold price is expected to rise with fluctuations, and silver is expected to follow the gold price in the short term [1][3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, with an expected value of 48.8 and a previous value of 48.5; the output index was 50.3, the previous value was 45.4; the manufacturing price - paid index was 69.7, the expected value was 69, the previous value was 69.4; the employment index was 45, the expected value was 47, the previous value was 46.8; the inventory index was 49.2, the previous value was 46.7; the new orders index was 46.4, the previous value was 47.6 [2] - Fed Chairman Powell stated that most Fed members expect interest rate cuts later this year, the labor market is gradually cooling, it's uncertain if a July rate cut is too early, no meeting is excluded and it depends on data, the Fed's current monetary policy is moderately restrictive, and the economy and labor market are stable [2] - In May, the US JOLTs job openings were 7.769 million, with an expected value of 7.3 million and a revised previous value from 7.391 million to 7.395 million [2] - In May, the US construction spending decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with an expected decrease of 0.2% and a revised previous value from a decrease of 0.4% to a decrease of 0.2% [2] Price Logic - The US dollar reached a new low, and the US Treasury yields declined simultaneously. Most commodities rebounded, and precious metals showed a significant upward movement [1][3] - The US June ISM manufacturing PMI improved slightly. Job openings indicate that the employment market demand remains resilient. The Fed Chairman's remarks became more dovish, and the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year increased slightly. Fed Watch shows three rate cuts within the year, with the first cut still expected in September [1][3] Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [35, 38] [3]