Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the coking coal market cooled down, and the prices of the black building materials sector declined. However, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are relatively healthy, and there is still a chance to resonate with macro - level positive factors. Before new driving forces emerge, the prices are expected to oscillate within the current range, with limited downside potential [1][2][7] Summary by Category Iron Element - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports returned to the level of the same period last year. Supply is relatively stable with no obvious increase [2] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Iron - water production decreased slightly due to regular maintenance in steel mills but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production cuts due to profit reasons in the short term is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased mainly because of the concentrated arrival of floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited. The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - **Supply**: In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Although some previously shut - down or production - reduced coal mines are gradually resuming production, short - term supply disruptions will continue. In terms of imports, the adjustment of the error threshold for the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimao Port affected the number of customs - cleared vehicles, and the decline in the mining capacity of the TT mining area restricted coking coal transportation. Short - term imports of Mongolian coal may be restricted [3][13] - **Demand**: Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Coal mines had many pre - sold orders and no obvious inventory pressure. After the exchange restricted positions, the sentiment declined, but the short - term futures market still had support under healthy fundamentals [3][13] Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The ex - factory price of manganese ore increased, and the demand for manganese ore was supported by the recovery of the start - up rate of manganese - silicon manufacturers. With acceptable port inventory pressure, the quotation center of manganese ore gradually moved up. In an environment of industry profit restoration, the resumption of production by manufacturers continued, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policies with specific production - restriction requirements [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, in the long - term, as the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled, there are still hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and the upside potential of the price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3] Glass - **Demand**: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of original glass increased on a month - on - month basis, indicating speculative purchases by downstream players. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, the middle - stream sales increased, and the production - sales ratio of the upstream decreased significantly [4][15] - **Supply**: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, and there were no prominent internal contradictions, but there were many market - sentiment disturbances. The recent increase in coal prices strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals remained weak. In the short term, the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely [4][15] Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply situation has not changed. Although there are expectations of supply decline due to environmental concerns in Qinghai, the long - term supply pressure still exists, and production is expected to continue to increase [17] - **Demand**: Heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. The demand for light - soda ash from downstream industries is weak, mainly for periodic restocking. The market is affected by sentiment, and although the large monthly spread eases some delivery pressure, the downstream's willingness to take delivery is weak. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [17] Specific Products - **Steel**: Speculative sentiment was poor, spot trading was weak, and the supply increased while demand decreased during the off - season, with inventory accumulating. However, exports are expected to remain resilient. The fundamentals of steel are marginally weakening, but low inventory and potential production - restriction policies before the parade still provide short - term support [8] - **Iron Ore**: Demand is at a high level, supply is stable, and the fundamentals have limited negative driving forces. The price is expected to oscillate [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply decreased while demand increased, and the fundamentals are gradually strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate [10] - **Coke**: After the sixth round of price increases was implemented, the supply - demand structure remains tight in the short term, and the futures market still has support. Attention should be paid to potential production - restriction policies related to the parade [12] - **Coking Coal**: Short - term supply is tight due to disturbances. After the exchange restricted positions, the sentiment declined, but the short - term futures market still has support under healthy fundamentals [13] - **Manganese Silicon**: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the upside potential of the price is limited [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and the upside potential of the price is not optimistic [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures are "volatile and bullish", "volatile", and "volatile and cautious" respectively [7][8][9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a positive trend, and the bond market sentiment has improved. The sentiment in the equity market has entered a positive feedback loop. Before the September military parade, a positive attitude towards the equity market is maintained. The bond market needs to remain cautious overall, but the financial data structure may support the bullish sentiment in the bond market to some extent [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Viewpoint**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high, and the trading volume exceeded 2 trillion. The basis, spread, and total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed. The trading volume of the two markets reached a new high, approaching 2.2 trillion. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the previous high in October 2024, and the ChiNext Index was close to the previous high. Before the September military parade, a positive attitude towards the equity market is maintained due to factors such as the Fed's expected interest - rate cut, policy support, and positive capital flow signals. The short - term strategy is to follow the trend [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IM contracts [7] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Viewpoint**: Continue to hold the offensive strategy. The equity market continued to fluctuate strongly, and the ChiNext Index rose significantly. The trading volume of options exceeded 10 billion again since April 9th, with the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options increasing by 143.43% in a single day. The option sentiment index strengthened, and the implied volatility increased rapidly. It is recommended to follow the trend and continue to hold the bull spread portfolio [2][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold the bull spread portfolio [2][7] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Viewpoint**: The bond market sentiment has improved. The Treasury bond futures strengthened overall, but the stock market's strength may still have a negative impact on the bond market. The sentiment in the commodity market weakened, reducing the negative impact on the bond market. After continuous adjustments, the wait - and - see sentiment in the bond market increased. The July financial data showed that the social financing growth rate continued to rise, but the RMB loan segment needed further improvement. The financial data structure may support the bullish sentiment in the bond market, but overall, caution is still needed [3][8][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: The trend strategy is to be volatile and cautious. The hedging strategy is to pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. The basis strategy may have limited arbitrage space for the main contracts. The curve strategy is to pay attention to steepening the yield curve [9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data of the United States and China from August 12th to 15th, 2025 are presented, including the US July CPI annual rate, China's July M2 money supply annual rate, and other indicators [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Crude Oil**: The IEA stated that the global oil market will face a record supply surplus next year. OECD countries' oil demand is "resilient" due to low oil prices. The global crude oil processing volume in August is expected to reach a record high, and the observable global oil inventory in June reached a 46 - month high [11] - **Macro - economy**: The central bank released the July financial statistics report. The RMB deposits, loans, and social financing scale from January to July are detailed, including the changes in various sectors and sub - items [11][12] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the given text [13][17][29]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged as relatively mild inflation data clears the way for interest rate cuts after the weakening of the labor market, and the expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable. However, in the short term, the resonance upward movement of the Chinese and US equity markets has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and the upward movement of the gold price may still need to build momentum. The price of spot gold is relatively mild below 3500, and its elasticity may increase after breaking through this level. The recovery of risk appetite brings greater short - term elasticity to silver, but the pressure at the 40 - dollar mark is still obvious, and its breakthrough requires the cooperation of gold [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Key Information - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Fed could have cut interest rates in June and July, there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut and a series of consecutive interest rate cuts, the current Fed interest rate should be further lowered by 150 to 175 basis points, the Fed's interest rate is restrictive, he is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting, the Fed's spending is not supervised, he is considering recruiting relevant talents from the private sector to serve in the Fed, he will not support stopping the release of employment reports, and the Fed may cut interest rates in advance if the data is accurate [2]. - Russia responded to the "Putin - Biden meeting" regarding territorial issues. Russian Foreign Ministry Deputy Spokesperson Fadeyev stated that Russia's territorial composition is determined in the national constitution, and the goals of the Russian delegation in the Russia - US leader negotiations will be based entirely on national interests [2]. - Trump's list of candidates for Fed Chairman has expanded to 11. Two government officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates to replace Fed Chairman Powell when his term expires next May, including three previously unannounced candidates. Treasury Secretary Bessent will interview all candidates, screen the list, and submit the final list to the president for a decision, but no timetable was provided [3]. Price Logic - Yesterday, the gold price rose slightly, and silver recorded a larger increase. US inflation rose as expected, and the impact of tariffs was limited. After the weakening of the labor market, relatively mild inflation data clears the way for interest rate cuts, and the expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable. Fed Chairman Powell may give a clearer statement at the global central bank annual meeting next week. The dominant logic in the past quarter, "TACO trading + US fundamental resilience + convergence of interest rate cut expectations", is shifting to "verification of weakening US fundamentals + expansion of interest rate cut expectations". The change of the Fed leadership may bring a more dovish path in the long - term and a re - consideration of the Fed's independence [4]. Outlook - This week, the range of spot London gold is expected to be between 3340 and 3500 US dollars per ounce, and the range of spot London silver is expected to be between 37 and 40 US dollars per ounce [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide a specific overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry. However, individual product outlooks suggest a mix of trends, with many products expected to be in a state of "oscillation" or "oscillation with a downward bias" in the short - term [9][11][13]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The IEA monthly report indicates that in 2026, the global oil surplus will reach a record high due to slowed demand growth and increased supply. The oil market is currently under pressure, and the chemical industry chain is likely to face an oversupply situation. High - inventory varieties may experience a small - scale adjustment, and the future demand trend will determine the performance of the January contracts [2][3]. - The stock market is performing strongly, while the oil market is weak. The seasonal peak of global aviation kerosene demand is about to subside, which has a negative impact on medium - distillate products [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs A. Market Overview - **Crude Oil**: International crude oil futures are in a state of oscillatory consolidation. Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure still exists. The EIA data shows that the demand at the refinery level in the US in the week of August 8th was relatively strong, but the overall inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased, which is bearish. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15th may reduce concerns about Russian oil supply and the geopolitical premium [2][9]. - **Stock Market**: The US stock market has soared to a record high due to mild inflation data, and the stock markets in other regions of the world are also performing well [2]. B. Product - Specific Analysis - **Asphalt**: It has fallen below the important support level of 3500 yuan. The futures price is moving in the direction of least resistance. The increase in OPEC+ production, potential tariff hikes, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are all negative factors. The demand for asphalt is not optimistic, and its valuation is relatively high [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a weak oscillatory state. The increase in supply due to OPEC+ production hikes, the increase in import tariffs in China, weak demand in the US gasoline and Middle - East power - generation sectors, and the weakening of the three driving factors (Russia - Ukraine conflict, local refinery procurement, and the Palestine - Israel conflict) all contribute to the supply - demand imbalance [11][12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price is oscillating weakly following the trend of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy and high - sulfur fuel oil, and the increase in domestic refined - oil supply pressure [13]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and it is in an oscillatory state. The production profit is relatively high, but the downstream olefins are under pressure due to the decline in oil prices. There may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts [29]. - **Urea**: Supported by orders and market sentiment, the futures price has temporarily stabilized and strengthened. The supply - side maintenance has slowed down, and the daily production is at a high level. The market is mainly supported by pending orders and macro - sentiment, and its future trend depends on actual demand [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The cost support has weakened, and the price is in an oscillatory state. The supply change is limited, and the downstream polyester load is stable, but the overall sales performance is poor [22][23]. - **PX**: The cost support has weakened again, and the entire polyester chain is in a downward trend. The supply pressure continues, and the cost support in the short - term has weakened. The short - term price will fluctuate at a low level following the upstream cost [15]. - **PTA**: The cost support has weakened, the sales performance is mediocre, and the warehouse - receipt pressure has increased. The supply has increased while the demand has weakened, and the short - term price will follow the cost for low - level consolidation [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and inventory replenishment is cautious. The upstream raw material price has declined, the cost support is weak, and the short - term price will oscillate at a low level [25][26]. - **Bottle Chips**: The cost support has weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The upstream polymerization cost support has declined, and the overall supply - demand situation has changed little [26][27]. - **PP**: Supply still exists, and it is in an oscillatory state. The coal and oil markets have an impact on it. The supply side is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition, with a slow increase in downstream开工 [35][36]. - **Propylene**: Supported by spot maintenance, the PP - PL spread around 600 yuan is considered reasonable, and PL is in a short - term oscillatory state. The PDH enterprises in some areas are under maintenance, and the spot market is temporarily stable [36]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased. It is in an oscillatory state. Oil prices are oscillating weakly, the macro - level has capital games, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in a slow transition from the off - season to the peak season [33][34]. - **Pure Benzene**: The import volume has decreased, and downstream production capacity has been put into operation. The buying sentiment has increased, and the market structure has changed to Back. The port inventory has decreased, which has boosted market sentiment, and the short - term fundamentals are okay [17][20]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand outlook is still weak. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of factory inventory. The cost support from pure benzene is limited, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak [20][22]. - **PVC**: The cost provides support, and the futures price is oscillating. The macro - policy orientation needs to be concerned. The production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the cost is expected to rise [39]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and the market is cautiously optimistic. The macro - policy orientation needs to be concerned. The fundamentals have improved marginally, with increased demand from the alumina industry, improved export orders, and high - level production [40]. C. Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing different trends of change [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse - receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and the inventory situation [42]. - **Inter - product Spread**: Data on inter - product spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented, which helps in analyzing the relative valuation between different products [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Product | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Bullish Oscillation | | Protein Meal | Oscillation | | Corn and Starch | Bearish Oscillation | | Hogs | Oscillation | | Natural Rubber and 20 - rubber | Oscillation | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillation | | Cotton | Bullish Oscillation | | Sugar | Oscillation | | Pulp | Oscillation | | Logs | Bearish Oscillation | [7][8][10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple favorable factors drive the oils and fats market to run strongly. Protein meal is affected by emotions and supply pressure. Corn shows signs of restocking downstream. Hog futures are expected to correct. Rubber experiences a pull - back after a rise. Synthetic rubber has limited variables. Pulp is considered bullish in the short - term. Cotton prices are boosted by a reduction in US cotton production. Sugar prices rebound due to supply expectation adjustments. Logs are affected by new warehouse receipt pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: USDA's August report unexpectedly cut the 2025/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, increased the yield per acre by 1.1 bushels to 53.6 bushels, and cut the expected yield by 1.16 million tons to 116.82 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.02 million tons [1][7]. - **Logic**: Multiple factors contributed to the rise of domestic oils. From a macro perspective, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the US - China tariff policy is extended. From an industrial perspective, the reduction in US soybean area and production, lower - than - expected palm oil inventory in Malaysia, and anti - dumping rulings on Canadian rapeseed are positive. However, US soybean growth is good, and palm oil is in the production season [2][7]. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is likely to continue to run strongly in the near future [3][7]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 13, 2025, the international soybean trade premium and discount quotes showed different changes week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also increased [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season is tightening. Domestically, there is short - term inventory pressure, but long - term demand is expected to increase. The anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is positive for the far - month [8]. - **Outlook**: The market pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, near - term weakness and far - term strength will continue. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low prices [8]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: The prices of corn in Jinzhou Port and the domestic average showed small changes. The closing price of the main contract increased [10]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is stable to weak, with supply inventory being digested and demand being weak. There are signs of restocking in South China ports. New - season corn production is normal [10]. - **Outlook**: There is uncertainty in the short - term due to old - crop de - stocking, and there is a downward drive after new - crop listing [10]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 13, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased slightly, and the futures price decreased [11]. - **Logic**: After the end of the symposium, the market hype subsided. In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume increases. In the medium - term, the supply will increase. In the long - term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog futures market fluctuates greatly. The spot and near - term have high - weight inventory pressure, while the far - term has a bullish expectation. Pay attention to reverse - spread strategies [11]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Cambodia's latex exports decreased in the first 7 months of 2025 [14]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices adjusted after a rise. It is in the seasonal rising period, with many speculation themes. The short - term supply may decrease, and demand is rigid [14]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed increases [16]. - **Logic**: The BR futures followed natural rubber to adjust. It is affected by natural rubber sentiment and raw material cost support. The supply of butadiene is tight, and downstream demand is good [16]. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price may rise slightly, and the futures may run strongly in an oscillatory manner [16]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 13, the number of registered warehouse receipts and the closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts increased [16]. - **Logic**: The USDA report cut US cotton production, tightening global supply. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. The suspension of tariffs boosts market confidence [17]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly before new - flower listing [17]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of August 13, the closing prices of Zhengzhou sugar futures contracts increased [18]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short - term, supply pressure increases seasonally, but the rebound of the external market supports the domestic market [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices have a downward drive; in the short - term, they are expected to run in the range of 5600 - 5900 [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong increased [18]. - **Logic**: The pulp fundamentals are weak, with high supply and weak demand overseas. However, the price is at a low level, and the negative factors have been fully priced in [18]. - **Outlook**: Pulp futures are expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [18]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures price weakened due to new warehouse receipt pressure. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. There is a marginal improvement in fundamentals [20]. - **Outlook**: The log futures are expected to run in the range of 800 - 850 [20].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Domestic Commodity Futures Mostly Decline, Black Series Generally Close Lower - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250814" [1] Group 2: Market Performance Domestic Main Commodities - Index futures generally showed an upward trend. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.96%, a weekly increase of 2.15%, a monthly increase of 2.81%, a quarterly increase of 7.33%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.37% [4] - Treasury futures mostly had minor fluctuations. The 2 - year Treasury futures had a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 0.02%, a quarterly decrease of 0.13%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.59% [4] - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index decreased by 0.20% weekly, 21.98% monthly, 13.4% quarterly, and 9.60% year - to - date [4] - Interest rates showed different trends. The 10Y Chinese bond yield increased by 7.9bp quarterly and 0.1bp year - to - date, while the 10Y US Treasury yield increased by 5bp quarterly and decreased by 26bp year - to - date [4] Popular Industries - Some industries like the grass - colored gold industry had good performance, with a daily increase of 1.28%, a weekly increase of 4.59%, a monthly increase of 4.37%, a quarterly increase of 11.54%, and a year - to - date increase of 31.85%. While some industries like the pharmaceutical industry had a daily decrease of 0.86%, a weekly decrease of 0.88%, a monthly decrease of 0.88%, a quarterly increase of 12.63%, and a year - to - date increase of 21.76% [4] Overseas Commodities - In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 1.44% daily, 0.43% weekly, 9.03% monthly, 2.91% quarterly, and 12.23% year - to - date [4] - Precious metals such as COMEX gold increased by 0.17% daily, decreased by 1.69% weekly, increased by 1.71% monthly, increased by 2.55% quarterly, and increased by 28.81% year - to - date [4] - In the non - ferrous metals sector, LME copper increased by 1.17% daily, 0.74% weekly, 2.43% monthly, decreased by 0.38% quarterly, and increased by 12.05% year - to - date [4] - In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans increased by 2.18% daily, 4.64% weekly, 4.24% monthly, 0.46% quarterly, and 2.20% year - to - date [4] Other Domestic Commodities - Many commodities showed various trends. For example, the shipping container freight rate to Europe (ECSA) increased by 5.96% daily, decreased by 7.17% weekly, decreased by 6.46% monthly, decreased by 0.44% quarterly, and decreased by 40.93% year - to - date [5] Group 3: Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - The overseas market is facing a situation where the US economic fundamentals are weak. The China - US tariff negotiation period is postponed to November 12. The US CPI in July met expectations. The upcoming tariff implementation in August may test market sentiment. The internal personnel change in the Fed and the US CPI data next week will guide market expectations for interest rate cuts and risk appetite [9] Domestic Macro - China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face the risk of decline and restricted re - export trade [9] Asset Views - Domestically, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit repair window in the second half of the month. Maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. Overseas, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations and maintain the allocation of US bonds. Slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from the weak US dollar and reduce the allocation of US dollar money market funds to be cautious about interest rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [9] Group 4: Viewpoints on Different Sectors Finance - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term outlook is a fluctuating upward trend. Stock index options: Layout offensive strategies, with a short - term fluctuating upward trend. Treasury futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term fluctuating trend [10] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards as the market returns to the logic of the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, with the US economic fundamentals weakening [10] Shipping - The shipping container freight rate to Europe is expected to fluctuate as the market focuses on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases [10] Black Building Materials - Most products in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, are expected to fluctuate. For example, steel has strong cost support, and iron ore has a healthy fundamental situation [10] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. have different short - term trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate downward, while aluminum is expected to continue to recover, but the overall demand weakness needs to be noted [10] Energy and Chemicals - Most products in this sector are expected to fluctuate. For example, crude oil is expected to fluctuate downward due to geopolitical concerns easing and supply pressure remaining. Some chemicals like LPG are expected to fluctuate due to cost and demand factors [12] Agriculture - Oils, fats, and protein meals are expected to continue to be strong, while corn/starch is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market continues with the allocation strategy, while the sentiment in the bond market remains weak [2]. - For stock index futures, the Shanghai Composite Index is approaching its previous high. The market is not sensitive to negative factors in the short - term and will continue with the allocation strategy. If the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through upward, the small - cap factor will be more dominant [3]. - For stock index options, the market is recommended to switch to a bull spread portfolio as the market has made some upward breakthroughs [3]. - For treasury bond futures, the market is weak. Although there was some recovery in early August, the bullish sentiment is unstable and policy factors may cause significant disturbances, so caution is needed [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Viewpoint**: The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching its previous high. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts are 0.57 points, 2.79 points, - 8.96 points, and - 9.41 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 7.09 points, 4.28 points, 14.60 points, and 8.93 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts are 13.2 points, 0.2 points, 66.6 points, and 70.6 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 2.0 points, 1.2 points, - 2.8 points, and - 3.8 points. The total open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 8595 lots, - 1720 lots, - 9999 lots, and - 20490 lots respectively [9]. - **Logic**: The equity market continued its upward trend on Tuesday. The strong sentiment is related to the China - US trade joint statement. Large - cap stocks performed prominently, which may be due to the need for large - cap stocks to support the index's upward breakthrough and the entry of large institutional funds. The market is recommended to hold IM [3][9]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Viewpoint**: Continue to hold the offensive strategy. The overall market trading volume decreased slightly, with most varieties having reduced liquidity, while the ChiNext and STAR Market - related varieties remained active. The option sentiment index strengthened significantly, and the implied volatility of call options increased rapidly at the end of the session, suggesting the entry of buyers [3][9]. - **Logic**: As the market has made an upward breakthrough, it is recommended to switch to a bull spread portfolio [3][9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the bond market remains weak. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts fell by 0.04%, 0.00%, 0.02%, and 0.31% respectively. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields rose to 1.727% and 2.017% respectively [4][9]. - **Logic**: The improvement in risk appetite suppresses the bond market. The stock and commodity markets are strong, and the "stock - bond seesaw" has a negative impact on the bond market. The central bank conducted 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a small net withdrawal of funds and a slight increase in capital interest rates. Policy factors such as "anti - involution" and stable growth are negative for the bond market. It is recommended to be cautious in the trend strategy, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels in the hedging strategy, note that the arbitrage space for main contracts may be small in the basis strategy, and pay attention to steepening the yield curve in the curve strategy [4][9][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The US July CPI annual rate (unadjusted) was 2.7%, the same as the previous value and lower than the forecast of 2.8% [12]. - The forecast values for China's July M2 money supply annual rate, July new RMB loans (year - to - date), and July social financing scale (year - to - date) are 8.4%, 13.205 trillion yuan, and 24.3565 trillion yuan respectively [12]. - The forecast values for the US July PPI annual rate and China's July total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate are 2.5% and 4.6% respectively [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - US President Trump demanded that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell cut interest rates immediately and criticized his performance. Trump is considering allowing relevant lawsuits against Powell to proceed [13]. - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans, providing interest subsidies for eligible personal consumption loans from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026 [14]. - OPEC maintained its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day, adjusted the 2026 forecast from 1.28 million barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day. It also adjusted some economic growth forecasts [15]. - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced the list of drugs that passed the preliminary formal review for the 2025 adjustment of the national basic medical insurance, maternity insurance, work - related injury insurance drug catalog, and commercial insurance innovative drug catalog. Passing the preliminary review only means meeting the application conditions and does not guarantee inclusion in the catalog [15][16]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific data is provided in the text for in - depth summary.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for each metal, the following outlooks are provided: - Copper: Oscillating [6] - Alumina: High - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term [8] - Aluminum: Range - bound oscillation in the short term [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Range - bound oscillation in the short term, with potential for spread recovery later [12] - Zinc: Oscillating in the short term, with a potential decline in the medium - to - long term [14] - Lead: Oscillating [16] - Nickel: Wide - range oscillation in the short term, hold short positions in the medium - to - long term [21] - Stainless Steel: Range - bound oscillation in the short term [23] - Tin: Oscillating, with potential for increased volatility in August [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The weak US dollar continues to support non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand also needs attention. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the supply - demand situation is gradually loosening, and the risk of weakening demand is increasing, which exerts negative pressure on base metal prices. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and the supply disturbances of copper, aluminum, and tin still support base metal prices. It is recommended to short copper and zinc on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Sino - US tariff suspension is extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The supply constraint remains, but the demand is marginally weakening. The follow - up focus is on the tariff implementation [6][7]. - **Alumina**: Shanxi Province adjusts the registration authority of some mineral species, and the alumina futures price rises significantly. In the short term, the futures price is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues, with high volatility. The fundamental situation is relatively weak [8]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the consumption quality, and aluminum prices continue to rise. The short - term supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. - **Zinc**: The price of the black series rebounds again, and zinc prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply is loosening, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [14]. - **Lead**: The cost still provides support, and lead prices are oscillating. The supply is expected to increase slightly this week, and the demand is slightly affected by the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The market sentiment dominates the futures price, and the fundamental situation is marginally weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions in the medium - to - long term [21]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron continues to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price goes up. The cost has increased recently, and the follow - up focus is on the demand during the peak season and inventory changes [23]. - **Tin**: The raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The supply is tight, but the demand is marginally weakening in the second half of the year. The price is expected to oscillate, with potential for increased volatility in August [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of various metals in this section, such as copper, alumina, aluminum, etc., but does not provide specific monitoring content.

Report Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [8][10][11][12][13][15][16][18][19]. Core Viewpoints - The coal mine production restriction expectation cannot be falsified in the short term, the coking coal supply is still shrinking, the steel inventory is low, and there is a strong expectation of production restriction before major events, which strongly supports the price. In a stable fundamental state, there may be a resonance between macro - positive policies and the industry in the future. Recently, the black market has been highly volatile and will mainly oscillate within the current range before new drivers emerge [3]. Summary by Category Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year, with relatively stable supply and no obvious increase [3]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Due to regular maintenance, the molten iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production reduction due to profit reasons is small in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether there are production restriction policies in the second half of the month [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the iron ore port area increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation range was limited [3]. - Outlook: The fundamental negative drivers are limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [3]. Carbon Element - Supply: Some coal mines in the main production areas reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production checks, and some coal mines actively stopped or reduced production. Although the Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, there were restrictions on some traders' haulage recently, which may affect future customs clearance [4]. - Demand: The coke output was temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and the inventory of some coal mines had started to accumulate, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market [4]. - Outlook: Under supply disturbances, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures price is expected to be more likely to rise than to fall in the short term [4]. Alloys - Manganese Silicate: The cost support was continuously strengthened by the continuous increase in coke prices. The wait - and - see sentiment in the manganese ore market increased, and the port ore prices remained firm. The downstream demand was still resilient, but the supply - demand relationship might gradually become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The output is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the supply - demand relationship is healthy. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. Glass - Demand: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the number of days of raw - sheet inventory increased month - on - month. After the futures price dropped, the spot market sentiment declined, and the upstream production and sales decreased significantly [5]. - Supply: One production line was still waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with no prominent internal contradictions but more market sentiment disturbances [5]. - Outlook: Although the cost support strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals were still weak. The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. Steel - Core Logic: The Sino - US tariff suspension is expected to maintain export resilience. The arrival of delivery resources may increase supply pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory of five major steel products is accumulating. The fundamental situation has marginally weakened, but the low inventory and potential production - restriction disturbances before the parade still support the short - term futures price [10]. - Outlook: Focus on steel mill production - restriction and terminal demand [10]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port trading volume slightly decreased. Spot market prices rose. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports returned to last year's level. Steel enterprise profitability reached a three - year high, and the molten iron output decreased slightly. The port inventory increased due to concentrated arrivals, with limited inventory accumulation [10]. - Outlook: With high demand and stable supply, the price is expected to oscillate [11]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The supply decreased as the shipping willingness was low. The demand increased as the electric - furnace profit was good, and the total daily consumption increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available inventory days were at a low level [12]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate [12]. Coke - Core Logic: Futures prices were strong due to production - restriction rumors. Spot prices increased. After five rounds of price increases, coke production was stable. Downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the iron - water output remained high. The supply - demand structure was tight, and the price was still supported [13]. - Outlook: The market has started the sixth round of price increases, and attention should be paid to possible parade - related production - restriction policies [13]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Futures prices were strong due to supply disturbances. Spot prices were stable. Supply was affected by production - reduction factors in the main production areas and potential customs - clearance restrictions on Mongolian coal. Demand was firm, and some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment [15]. - Outlook: Supply recovery is expected to be slow, and the futures price is likely to rise in the short term [15]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The market's expectation of supply reduction increased. Supply capacity was not cleared, and production was at a high level. Demand for heavy soda decreased, and light - soda downstream procurement was weak. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and there was significant short - term delivery pressure [18]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term and decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [18]. Manganese Silicate - Core Logic: The futures price was under pressure due to increased supply. The spot price was firm. The cost increased, and the supply - demand relationship might gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [18]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space in the long term [18]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The futures price oscillated as production recovery accelerated. The spot price was supported by cost. Supply was expected to increase, and demand from the steel - making and metal - magnesium industries was resilient. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [19]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the long - term fundamentals have potential concerns [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Expected to fluctuate within a positive or negative one - standard - deviation range in the future 2 - 12 weeks, rated as "oscillating" [7][52] - Polysilicon: Subject to price fluctuations. If the anti - involution policy expectation fades, there is a risk of reverse price movement. The current assessment is based on the impact of policy implementation, and no specific rating is clearly given, but the price is in a state of wide - range fluctuation [10][11][12] - Lithium Carbonate: Expected to have a 1 - 2 standard - deviation increase in the future 2 - 12 weeks, rated as "oscillating and bullish" [13][52] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of new energy metals is that the Central Financial Work Conference mentioned the orderly elimination of backward production capacity, strengthening investors' expectations of supply - side contraction for silicon. There are also disruptions in domestic lithium supply, such as the shutdown of a large lithium mine in Jiangxi and a production accident in a lithium carbonate production line in Chile, which boost lithium prices, making lithium lead the rise among new energy metals. In the short and medium term, the expectations of supply - side contraction and cost increase support new energy metal prices, and lithium supply disruptions may push up lithium prices in the short term. However, there is an extreme risk of rising lithium prices. For silicon, the current supply and demand are weak, and the upward momentum of silicon prices is slowing down. In the long term, if there is no substantial supply - side contraction or obvious improvement in demand, silicon prices may decline, and the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2] Summary by Related Catalogs I. Market Views 1. Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices continue to be volatile. The medium - term outlook is "oscillating" [7] - **Information Analysis**: As of August 12, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated. The domestic inventory decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, with factory inventory down 1.5% month - on - month. In July 2025, the monthly output increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 30.6% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production decreased by 20.0% year - on - year. In June, exports increased by 22.8% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative exports decreased by 6.6% year - on - year. In June, domestic new photovoltaic installations decreased by 38.45% year - on - year, and from January to June, cumulative installations increased by 107.07% year - on - year. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits for some industrial silicon contracts [7] - **Main Logic**: The supply of industrial silicon continues to recover. In August, the supply pressure may increase. Demand shows some improvement, but the increase in demand from the aluminum alloy sector is limited. Inventory is expected to accumulate further, and there is a risk of market pressure [7] - **Outlook**: In the short term, silicon prices will continue to oscillate under the influence of macro - sentiment and coal prices. The resumption of production by large factories will be the key factor. If there is concentrated resumption of production, prices may be further suppressed [8] 2. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is volatile, and polysilicon prices fluctuate widely. The medium - term outlook is not clearly rated but is in a state of wide - range fluctuation [8][10] - **Information Analysis**: The average transaction price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.21% week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased. In June, exports increased by 5.96% month - on - month and decreased by 39.67% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative exports decreased by 7.23% year - on - year. Imports in June increased by 40.3% month - on - month, and from January to June 2025, cumulative imports decreased by 47.59% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, domestic new photovoltaic installations increased by 107% year - on - year [8] - **Main Logic**: Macro - economically, the anti - involution sentiment is volatile, and rising coal prices boost polysilicon prices. In terms of supply, production is expected to continue to increase in August. In the long term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will restrict supply. On the demand side, the high growth of photovoltaic installations in the first five months has overdrafted the demand for the second half of the year, and there is a risk of weakening demand [11] - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant impact on polysilicon prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. If the policy expectations fade, prices may fluctuate in the opposite direction [12] 3. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has subsided, and lithium prices retreated in the late trading session. The medium - term outlook is "oscillating and bullish" [12][13] - **Information Analysis**: On August 12, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.88% compared to the previous day, opening high and closing low. The total position increased by 52,662 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was equivalent to 79,200 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts increased by 1,440 tons [12] - **Main Logic**: The reduction of production at Ningde Times' Jiaxiawo Mine will be the focus of market games. Fundamentally, there is not much change. Weekly production has rebounded, and the formal shutdown of the Jiaxiawo Mine will reduce weekly ore supply by more than 2,000 tons of LCE. Current demand is not significantly exceeding expectations, and social inventory is slightly increasing. In the future, there will be a large supply - demand gap in the domestic market, but high prices may stimulate supply release. Currently, call options can be held, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive spreads between months [13] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand gap caused by the shutdown is expected to keep prices oscillating and bullish [13] II. Market Monitoring 1. Industrial Silicon - The content mainly focuses on the information analysis and logic in the market views section, including price, inventory, production, exports, and policy adjustments [7] 2. Polysilicon - The content mainly includes price information, warehouse receipt changes, import and export data, and the impact of policies and market sentiment on prices in the market views section [8][11] 3. Lithium Carbonate - The content mainly involves price, position, warehouse receipt changes, and the impact of production shutdowns on supply - demand balance and price trends in the market views section [12][13]