Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a weak performance in both stocks and bonds. The stock index futures experience a pullback in hot sectors, the implied volatility of stock index options fluctuates at a low level, and the bond market remains weak in the short - term but is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the medium - term [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the sentiment in the equity market was weak, with sectors like computer, media, and new energy leading the decline, and only the dividend index being resilient. The factors contributing to the pullback are the sharp decline of Bitcoin against the US dollar on December 1st and the historical value - oriented style in December. Although it's unlikely to fall below the November low, the market is expected to be volatile in December, being stable before major meetings and facing risks in the second half of December. The recommended operation is to hold IM + dividend [1][7]. - **Stock Index Options**: On Tuesday, the trading volume of financial options decreased, and the implied volatility of each variety showed differentiation. The skewness remained at a high level, and the PCR of open interest decreased slightly, indicating weak market sentiment. In the short - term, the implied volatility may remain low, and the recommended strategy is to hold covered or short - put strategies. In the long - term, the market is expected to rise in a volatile manner, and it's advisable to pay attention to the layout window of far - month call options [2][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the previous day, treasury bond futures closed lower across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally increased. The central bank's net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase had a stabilizing effect on the short - end of the bond market. The sharp decline of Vanke bonds and the non - exceeding - expected net investment of 50 billion yuan in treasury bond trading in November by the central bank were negative factors. However, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading may boost market sentiment, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The recommended strategies include trend, hedging, basis, and curve strategies [3][7][8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's SPGI manufacturing PMI in November was 49.9, lower than the previous value of 50.9 and the forecast value of 50.5. The SPGI services PMI for November and other data are yet to be released. In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2, lower than the previous value of 48.7 and the forecast value of 49. Other data such as the ADP employment change and ISM non - manufacturing PMI for November are also pending release [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The director of the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to strengthen the domestic cycle, build a strong domestic market, and promote the coordinated resolution of risks in real estate, local government debt, and small and medium - sized financial institutions [9]. - As of December 1st, 27 provinces in China have fully implemented the direct payment of maternity allowances to individuals. - Six major state - owned banks and some other banks have stopped selling 5 - year large - denomination certificates of deposit, and the term structure of large - denomination certificates of deposit has become "short - term" [10]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not presented in the provided content.

中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-3 宽松预期持续利好，⽩银⾼位波动加⼤ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 重点资讯： 1）据有"新美联储通讯社"之称的《华尔街日报》记者Nick Timira os报道，尽管美联储主席候选人面试仍在进行中，但特朗普总统似乎 已倾向于选择长期顾问哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）担任这一职位。此 次任命可能成为特朗普第二任期最重要的人事决策。 据知情人士透 露，哈塞特已向白宫和其他政府官员表示希望获得这一职位，并认为 自己是最佳候选人。 2）美国11月ISM制造业PMI指数下降0.5点至48.2，连续九个月低于 50的荣枯线，创下四个月来的最大萎缩。新订单指数降至自7月以来 最快的收缩速度，积压订单则创七个月最大降幅。 3）欧元区11月CPI初值同比升2.2%，预期升2.1%，10月终值升2.1%； 环比降0.3%，预期降0.3%，10月终值升0.2%。欧元区11月核心CPI初 值同比升2.4%，预期升2.5%，10月终值升2.4%；环比降0.4%，10月终 值升0.2%。欧元区10月失业率为6.4%，预期6.3%，前值从6.3%修正为 6.4%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall allocation idea for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro - environment is still friendly to risk assets. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [5]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance of Various Futures - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4535.8, down 0.43% daily, up 0.67% weekly and monthly, down 1.78% quarterly, and up 15.68% this year. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2971.4, down 0.50% daily, up 0.28% weekly and monthly, down 0.59% quarterly, and up 10.96% this year. The CSI 500 futures closed at 6982.2, up 0.11% weekly and monthly, down 4.23% quarterly, and up 22.65% this year. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7239.6, down 0.652 daily, down 0.29% weekly and monthly, down 2.25% quarterly, and up 78.13% this year [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.388, down 0.02% daily, up 0.01% weekly and monthly, up 0.10% quarterly, and down 0.57% this year. The 5 - year treasury bond futures closed at 105.77, down 0.07% daily, up 0.02% weekly and monthly, up 0.24% quarterly, and down 0.72% this year. The 10 - year treasury bond futures closed at 107.98, down 0.06% daily, up 0.04% weekly and monthly, up 0.42% quarterly, and down 0.87% this year. The 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 113.89, down 0.42% daily, down 0.52% weekly and monthly, up 0.28% quarterly, and down 4.16% this year [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index was at 99.4081, unchanged daily, down 0.03% weekly and monthly, up 1.62% quarterly, and down 8.35% this year. The EUR/USD was at 1.1609, with 0 pips daily change, 8 pips weekly and monthly change, - 125 pips quarterly change, and 1256 pips annual change. The USD/JPY was at 155.483, with 0 pips daily change, down 0.44% weekly and monthly, down 1.09% this year [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.48, unchanged daily, down 2 bp weekly and monthly, up 3 bp quarterly, and down 27 bp this year. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.84, up 0.8 bp daily, up 0.3 bp weekly and monthly, down 1.6 bp quarterly, and up 0.2 bp this year. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.09, up 7 bp daily and weekly, down 0.02 bp quarterly, and down 46 bp this year [3]. - **Shipping**: The European container shipping line closed at 1534.2, up 2.79% daily, up 4.23% weekly and monthly, down 6.61% quarterly, and down 32.02% this year [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 958.42, down 0.50% daily, up 0.47% weekly and monthly, up 9.31% quarterly, and up 55.18% this year. Silver closed at 13423, up 1.09% daily, up 5.47% weekly and monthly, up 22.61% quarterly, and up 79.69% this year [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 88920, down 0.40% daily, up 1.70% weekly and monthly, up 7.07% quarterly, and up 20.54% this year. Aluminum oxide closed at 2670, down 0.26% daily, down 1.37% weekly and monthly, down 6.90% quarterly, and down 44.34% this year [3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy is in a low - speed adjustment range, with consumption showing a K - shaped development and employment cooling. The expectation of interest rate cuts has shifted from "expectation guidance" to "data confirmation". The "Hassett transaction" has strengthened the market's re - evaluation of the future policy framework, and the global financial conditions have improved. Dollar liquidity is becoming the main line of major assets in the next quarter, and the market expects the Fed to discuss balance - sheet expansion around December [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, the profit margin of industrial enterprises continued to be under pressure due to weak domestic demand. However, with the joint promotion of policy - based financial instruments and special bonds, the forward - looking indices of enterprise investment and recruitment have significantly rebounded, and the expectation has improved. In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. The overall domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, and the guiding role of policies on expectations is increasing [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - Overall, the overall allocation idea for the fourth quarter remains unchanged. The macro - environment is still friendly to risk assets. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [5]. 3.4 View Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner as trading volume cannot support an upward attack. Stock index options are expected to move sideways as market sentiment is stable but volatility is differentiated. Treasury bond futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner as long - end sentiment remains weak [6]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to move sideways as geopolitical and trade tensions ease, leading to a phased adjustment in precious metals [6]. - **Shipping**: The European container shipping line is expected to move sideways as the peak season in the third quarter has passed and there is a lack of upward momentum. Steel products are expected to move sideways as the macro - environment is warm and the market is strong [6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most products in this sector, such as coking coal, silicon iron, and manganese silicon, are expected to move sideways as the macro - sentiment is warm and the sector shows strong performance [6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper, aluminum, and lead are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while nickel is expected to fall in a volatile manner. Other non - ferrous metals are mostly expected to move sideways [6]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PX, PTA, short - fiber, and other products are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to fall in a volatile manner. Most other energy and chemical products are expected to move sideways [8]. - **Agriculture**: Pulp is expected to move sideways after a sharp rise, and other agricultural products such as cotton, sugar, and livestock products have different short - term outlooks, mostly in a sideways or sideways - down trend [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-3 纸浆大幅拉升，或因利空前期充分交易 油脂：近日棕油和豆油相对偏强 蛋白粕：内外盘期价震荡，豆菜粕价差或扩大 玉米/淀粉：东北华北价格分化，期货维持震荡 生猪：供应充裕，价格趋弱 天然橡胶：维持小幅震荡 合成橡胶：原料出口消息点燃市场激情，基本面变化不大 棉花：棉价持续反弹，套保压力限制上方空间 白糖：糖价震荡徘徊，供应压力边际增大 纸浆：期货大幅拉升，或因利空前期充分交易 双胶纸：原料端反弹，双胶纸向上修复 原木：原木反弹修复估值 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 农业团队 研究员： 刘高超 从业资格号：F3011329 投资咨询号：Z0012689 王聪颖 从业资格号：F0254714 投资咨询号：Z0002180 吴静雯 从业资格号：F3083970 投资咨询号：Z0016293 李艺华 从业资格号： F03086449 投资咨询号： Z0019380 程也 从业资格号： F03087739 投资咨询号： Z0019480 周重廷 从业资格号：F03093821 投资咨询号：Z0020578 刘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-03 降息预期回温，关注铂低多机会 12⽉2⽇，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为442.5元/克，跌幅2.57%；钯主⼒ 合约收盘价为374.25元/克，跌幅2.23%。 钯观点：现货短缺⽀撑价格，短线维持震荡⾛势 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是钯供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务 部正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布。由 于对俄罗斯钯的制裁预期，市场上大量钯金流向美国，导致其他地区 钯金供应出现阶段性收紧。需求方面，钯金呈现显著的结构性压力。 综合来看，虽然钯长期供需趋松，但短期现货紧缺，叠加美联储再度 进入降息周期，钯价底部具备一定支撑。 展望：现货短缺及宏观环境偏好情况下，底部支撑较强，中长期仍受 自身供需基本面偏弱压制，预计将宽幅震荡。 ⻛险提⽰：全球经济衰退；美联储货币政策变化；俄罗斯地缘冲突变 化；主产区供应扰动。 有⾊与新材料团队 铂观点：降息预期回温，关注低多机会 主要逻辑：受金银回调带动，铂金今日盘面有所下挫。宏观方面，近 期美国公布经济数据偏弱叠加美联储官员鸽派发言，12月降息预期抬 升， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-03 现实预期博弈，盘⾯上涨乏⼒ 12⽉中央经济⼯作会议即将召开，海外仍有降息预期，宏观环境偏 暖，但⽬前钢材库存⽔平依旧同⽐偏⾼，需求⾯临转弱压⼒，钢材盘 ⾯上涨乏⼒。铁矿在冬储补库预期下仍有较强⽀撑，需求承压煤焦现 货价格表现疲软，玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 12月中央经济工作会议即将召开，海外仍有降息预期，宏观环境偏 暖，但目前钢材库存水平依旧同比偏高，需求面临转弱压力，钢材盘 面上涨乏力。铁矿在冬储补库预期下仍有较强支撑，需求承压煤焦现 货价格表现疲软，玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水环比下降，钢厂盈利率进一步压缩，后续仍有 部分钢厂安排高炉检修计划，铁水预计延续走弱态势，刚需支撑逐渐 弱化。海外矿山发运环比小幅回升，澳洲发运减少，巴西发运环比大 幅增加，非主流发运略降，本期到港环比减量，港口库存环比继续累 积，全国钢厂进口矿库存下滑，补库需求暂未明显释放，前期价格回 升后进一步上行支撑不足，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢到货偏低， 价格下降后性价比回升，长、短流程钢企废钢需求均有支撑，下方空 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/03 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Keidanren, Japanese Parliamentary Group submit requests to visit China. Fu ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The European diesel cracking spread is expected to return to fundamental - based pricing, with limited downside potential, and is projected to trade sideways at a high level in December. Europe's long - term structural capacity withdrawal will support the bottom [5][9][11] 3. Summary according to Related Catalogs Price Movement - The monthly average of ICE Gasoil Crack Spread in November was $29.78 per barrel, a 26 - month high, with the highest intraday closing price reaching $35.77 per barrel. After peaking, it gradually pulled back, closing at approximately $25.36 per barrel on December 1st [4] Fundamentals Supply - Europe's refinery autumn maintenance season is in the final stage, and its impact has weakened significantly. New refinery projects in India and Bahrain have started operations, adding supply to the market. Rumors about China's first batch of quotas for 2026 have also affected market expectations [6][9] Demand - As the largest heating oil market in Northwest Europe, France's diesel imports have been sluggish, and the seasonal consumption pattern has not fully started. Currently, European temperatures are below normal, and Germany's fuel tax will increase in January 2026, which may prompt enterprises to replenish heating oil inventories in December, boosting short - term demand. There are still expectations for the peak heating season in December [7][9] Inventory - ARA diesel inventories are still above the 5 - year historical average for the same period but show signs of destocking [8][9] Outlook - The European Gasoil Crack Spread is expected to return to fundamental - based pricing, and it is projected to trade sideways at a high level in December due to Europe's long - term structural capacity withdrawal [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report provides a daily data tracking of the aluminum industry chain on December 2, 2025, including key data on alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy. 3. Summary by Directory Alumina - On December 2, the SMM AOD average price was 21,710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the premium/discount was -50 yuan/ton [1]. - The domestic ore price was 509 yuan/ton on December 2, with no change compared to the previous day; the price of imported ore from Guinea was 71 US dollars per dry ton, also unchanged [1]. - The spot price index was 2,826 yuan/ton on December 2, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The futures inventory was 253,612 tons on December 2, with no change compared to the previous day [1]. - The aluminum import profit and loss was -2,006 yuan/ton on December 2, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. Electrolytic Aluminum - On December 2, the Baotai ADC12 price was 20,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous day [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum smelting profit was 5,284 yuan/ton on December 2, a decrease of 246 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The futures inventory was 64,198 tons on December 2, a decrease of 29 tons compared to the previous day [1]. - The import profit and loss was -375 yuan/ton on December 2, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The scrap price difference between raw aluminum and profile aluminum on December 2 was 1,669 yuan/ton and 2,421 yuan/ton respectively, both decreasing by 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The futures inventory was 66,833 tons on December 2, with no change compared to the previous day [1]. - The import profit and loss was 58 yuan/ton on December 2, with no change compared to the previous day [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 Investment Consulting Business Qualification： CSRC License [2012] No. 669 China Commodity Futures Cross-Border Arbitrage Weekly Report 中国商品期货跨境套利周报 December 2, 2025 王含章 Wang Hanzhang 从业资格号：F03121254 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0022985 Investment consulting No. 姜婧 Jiang Jing CFA 从业资格号：F3018552 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0013315 Investment consulting No. 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi CFA PhD 从业资格号 ：F3023159 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0013632 Investment consulting No. 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成 ...