1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, most products are expected to be in an "oscillating" state, which implies a neutral stance on the overall energy and chemical industry in the short - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is facing different external factors with inconsistent directions of contradictions, presenting an oscillating pattern. Coal prices are rising, increasing the cost of coal - based chemicals, while crude oil has been falling for four days, reducing the cost of oil - based chemicals. The industry itself and the macro - end also have different trends. It is advisable for investors to take a light - position in the hedging of oil - based and coal - based chemicals [2]. - The overall chemical industry will continue to oscillate and consolidate, and the trend is still unclear. The short - term trends of various chemical products are mainly oscillating, and attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, supply and demand changes, and cost factors [3]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - **Main Logic**: The US has imposed an additional 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil. Although the US and Russia's statements on promoting the Russia - Ukraine peace talks are optimistic, the expectation of the US to impose additional secondary sanctions on Russia is still hard to disprove. EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels in the week of August 1, and the net import of crude oil decreased by 794,000 barrels per day. The single - week crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate increased from 95.4% to 96.9%. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation, pay attention to the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [6]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price oscillates after reaching the support level. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will increase production in September, and the market may refocus on the negative impacts of tariffs and OPEC+ production increases. The current asphalt spot market is stronger in the north than in the south, and the sales pressure is increasing. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined but is still at a high level, driving the refinery's operating rate to return. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [7]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil oscillates following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The tax on fuel oil imports in China has been raised, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has decreased. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it will oscillate weakly [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures price oscillates following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened following crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread has increased, low - sulfur fuel oil is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, with limited demand space, but the current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate following crude oil [9]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The inland price is running strongly, and methanol oscillates. - **Main Logic**: On August 6, the methanol futures price rebounded slightly, driven by the coal end in the short term. The northwest methanol market continued to be strong, and the port inventory increased. The production profit of methanol is still relatively high, and the downstream olefins are under pressure due to the decline in oil prices. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [19]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: After the export information is confirmed, the futures price has reached the top and is about to oscillate and consolidate. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment was boosted by the high - price Indian tender and export news on August 5 and 6, but the downstream follow - up was cautious, and the actual trading volume was average. After the export information was basically confirmed, the market's positive sentiment faded. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will oscillate and consolidate, and it is likely to decline weakly. Pay attention to whether there are more changes in the Indian tender before August 8 [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: The support from coal prices is increasing, and the expectation of inventory accumulation is narrowing. - **Main Logic**: Supported by coal prices and the improvement of market sentiment, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level. Overseas plant shutdowns have reduced the expected import volume in August, and the inventory accumulation amplitude has slightly narrowed. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate within a range, and there is an expectation of an inventory inflection point [14][16]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The decline of PX is slowing down as the cost stops falling and the commodity sentiment strengthens. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the macro - atmosphere has continued to strengthen, pushing up the PX price. In terms of supply and demand, the change in PX is limited. Due to the low processing fee of PTA, some PTA plants have reduced their production, but the demand reduction is limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [10]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Under low processing fees, unexpected maintenance has increased, and the commodity sentiment has slightly improved. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost has stopped falling, and the PTA futures price has strengthened following the cost. The basis has continued to weaken, and the spot processing fee has been continuously compressed. Some mainstream PTA manufacturers have reduced their production, and the downstream polyester filament sales have increased, but the supply - demand drive is still weak. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, pay attention to the implementation of major plant maintenance at the beginning of August [10]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The futures market has boosted the spot market atmosphere, and the sales volume has slightly improved. - **Main Logic**: There are no significant changes in the fundamentals. Supported by the polymerization cost, the short - fiber price has been boosted, and the sales volume has slightly improved, but the terminal orders are average. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber processing fee will be weakly stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the medium - to - long - term. The absolute price will fluctuate following the raw materials [16][17]. Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The polyester bottle - chip price is supported after the polymerization cost stops falling. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester cost has stopped falling and rebounded slightly, supporting the polyester bottle - chip price. The bottle - chip processing fee has been slightly repaired, but the subsequent profit expansion space is limited. - **Outlook**: The bottle - chip processing fee has support at the bottom, and the absolute price will fluctuate following the raw materials [17][18]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance rate has slightly decreased, and PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The coal end has slightly boosted in the short term, while the oil price has oscillated and declined. The supply side of PP is still in an incremental state, and the demand side is weak. The downstream plastic weaving and injection molding operating rates are lower than the same period in previous years. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [23][24]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: It mainly follows the fluctuations and oscillates in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the downstream factories follow up as needed. The short - term disk follows the fluctuations of PP and methanol, and the coal end has provided some support. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [24]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: Affected differently by oil and coal, the plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price has oscillated and weakened in the short term, while the macro - end has slightly improved, and the coal end has some positive news. The plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. - **Outlook**: The LLDPE 09 contract will oscillate in the short term [22]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: There is insufficient driving force, and pure benzene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment has declined after the Politburo meeting, but there is still some support due to the military parade expectation. The oil price has fluctuated. Recently, there have been concentrated investments in pure benzene upstream and downstream plants, which have a great impact on the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: In August, the supply of pure benzene will increase, but with new downstream production, the balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory reduction. The import arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory may be reduced in stages, slightly boosting the price [11][12][13]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The inventory has been continuously accumulating, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The short - term replenishment of styrene downstream has decreased, and the support has weakened. The supply of styrene itself has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The new home appliance production schedule data is average, and the market is worried about the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: Recently, due to weather reasons, the port arrival volume has decreased, and the downward driving force has weakened. The cost of pure benzene is stable or slightly strong, but the driving force for styrene is limited. Overall, the styrene price may oscillate and decline slightly [13][14]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and PVC mainly oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the inspection of coking coal over - production has increased the expectation of supply disturbances. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with an expected increase in cost. The upstream production will increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the export has improved. - **Outlook**: The futures price will oscillate under the situation of strong expectation and weak reality [27]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is falling rapidly, and the futures price oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the inspection of coking coal over - production has increased the expectation of supply disturbances. In terms of fundamentals, the demand for caustic soda from alumina production is increasing marginally, but there is no significant change in non - aluminum production. The inventory of caustic soda in the downstream is not high, and the 50% caustic soda inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. - **Outlook**: The futures price is under downward pressure, and pay attention to whether upstream producers will reduce production due to low profits, the performance of downstream peak seasons, and policy expectations [28][29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market risk - preference recovery suppresses gold prices, but gold's long - term bullish trend remains unchanged, with tariff - induced slowdown in the US fundamentals and restart of the interest - rate cut cycle providing medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit building the long - term bullish foundation [1][6] - The trading of short - term resilience of the US economy may end, and the market will return to the logic of weakening US fundamentals and restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, with positive sentiment in the gold market [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US President Trump said the US will impose about 100% tariffs on imported semiconductor chips [2] - Trump may meet with Russian President Putin next week, and the US plans to implement secondary sanctions on Friday to pressure Russia to end the Ukraine war [2] - Some Fed policymakers are increasingly worried about the cooling of the US job market and economic slowdown, though they are still uncertain about inflation [2] 3.2 Price Logic - Asian stocks rose on Wednesday. Despite weak US economic data, the recovery of market risk - preference suppressed the safe - haven demand for gold. However, trade uncertainties and interest - rate cut expectations provide support [3] - Investors still bet that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, with an expected cumulative cut of over 50 basis points this year [3] - Trump's tariff announcements on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have intensified global trade tensions, which may limit the decline of gold prices [3] - The negative impact of TACO trading on gold has been exhausted, and the emotional impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, becoming a slow - variable [3] 3.3 Outlook - The weekly focus for London gold spot is [3300, 3500], and for London silver spot is [36, 40] [6]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/08/07 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China will gradually promote free preschool education. Futures Prices: On ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [10] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [16] - **Sugar**: Long - term: oscillating with a downward bias; Short - term: maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [19] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and price outlooks. For example, the hog market shows a pattern of "weak present + strong future" due to policy - induced production - cut expectations; the oils and fats market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias considering overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic export expectations [11][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOA data shows a 9.01% month - on - month increase in estimated Malaysian palm oil production in July. The overall estimated production is 1.84 million tons. ITS and AmSpec data indicate a decline in July's Malaysian palm oil exports [8]. - **Logic**: Due to the expected high yield of US soybeans and concerns about demand, US soybeans fell on Tuesday. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil being stronger. The global and domestic supply - demand situation of different oils varies, with soybean oil having inventory increases and export expectations, palm oil facing inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil having high inventory [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, palm oil and soybean oil are likely to be stronger, influenced by the expected increase in overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic soybean oil export expectations [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 6, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different trends. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the good growth of US soybeans and the expected high yield, along with changes in trade relations and CFTC net short positions, affect the market. Domestically, in the short - term, due to the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. In the long - term, there is a potential supply gap in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Outlook**: In the next two weeks, the inventory of soybean meal may reach a peak. Spot and basis prices may oscillate at a low level. The far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Industry Information**: The average domestic corn price and the closing price of the main contract decreased [10]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, there are differences in the judgment of channel inventory, and the auction transaction rate of imported corn is low. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grains is low. Policy - wise, the transaction rate and premium of imported corn are decreasing [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is uncertainty in the old - crop inventory reduction. After the new - crop is listed, there is a downward pressure on prices [10]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the spot price of hogs in Henan decreased slightly, while the futures closing price increased [11]. - **Logic**: The proposed meeting by the China Animal Husbandry Association to discuss sow production cuts triggered market sentiment. In the short - term, large - scale farms are actively reducing weight and inventory, but the inventory of secondary - fattening by smallholders is high. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, policies may lead to a reduction in production capacity [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market shows large fluctuations. The spot and near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month contracts are influenced by production - cut expectations [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone remained stable, and the prices of raw materials in the Thai market increased slightly [13]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is favorable, and there is some speculative sentiment in the market. The supply is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable in the short - term [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different trends [15]. - **Logic**: The BR futures rose slightly, driven by natural rubber and the macro - environment, and supported by the tight supply of butadiene. However, the fundamental driving force is not clear [15]. - **Outlook**: It will generally maintain an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 6, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton increased slightly [16]. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The price is oscillating within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread [16]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar decreased [17]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the new season is expected to have a loose supply. In the short - term, the supply pressure will increase due to the peak production and export season in Brazil and the concentrated import in China [17]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias. In the short - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained stable or decreased slightly [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated at a low level. The supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. However, the recent increase in domestic broad - leaf pulp prices is worth noting [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate widely, and attention can be paid to the low - absorption long - matching opportunity when the main contract falls to 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: After the first - month delivery of logs, the short - term fundamentals changed little [19]. - **Logic**: The new foreign quotation has increased, but the domestic market is in the off - season. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range of 800 - 850, and the industrial side can participate in hedging according to its own costs [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report also mentions data monitoring for various products such as oils and fats, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the text [22][53][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6]. Report's Core View - Yesterday, the news of coal mine production restrictions fermented again, driving up the futures prices. The fundamentals of the black industry have not changed significantly, and the inventory pressure at each link is not high. Before the important event, the production restriction time is approaching, and steel prices have strong support. Coal and coke supplies have not fully recovered, and inventories are being depleted, making prices susceptible to positive news. There may also be continuous influence from macro - positive news. Before the spot pressure appears, prices have room for further rebound. The futures prices have high volatility, and capital behavior dominates the market. It is recommended to wait and avoid risks, and focus on policy implementation and terminal demand [1][2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased as expected. The profitability rate of steel enterprises increased again, but steel production in some areas decreased due to rainfall, though it remained high year - on - year. Due to low arrivals and high demand, iron ore inventories at 45 ports, in port congestion, and at factories decreased. After the macro - sentiment cooled, iron ore prices dropped slightly, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [2]. Carbon Element - The overall supply is temporarily stable. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week exceeded 1,200 vehicles, reaching a high for the year, and imports remained high. Coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Affected by the recent decline in futures prices, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream and traders increased, and the spot market sentiment cooled. However, upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports [2]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The manganese ore market has more wait - and - see sentiment, but traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. Steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high, so the downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, as manufacturers' profitability improves, the复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. Currently, the contradictions in the spot fundamentals are limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the current supply - demand relationship is healthy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector [3]. Glass - In the off - season, glass demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of original glass increased month - on - month, indicating speculative purchases by downstream. After the futures prices dropped, the spot market sentiment cooled, middle - stream sales increased, and upstream production and sales declined significantly. On the supply side, two production lines are yet to produce glass, and one line has been cold - repaired, with the overall daily melting expected to remain stable. Upstream inventories have decreased slightly, and there are no prominent contradictions, but market sentiment fluctuates a lot. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, but it may recur. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term both in futures and spot [3][6]. Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After this round of negative feedback was triggered, prices dropped rapidly in the short term and are at a discount to the spot. It is expected to oscillate in the future. In the long run, the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. Specific Products - **Steel**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the steel and coal industries remains high. Driven by cost, the futures prices are firm. Spot steel sales are average. Last week, some steel mills had short - term maintenance and iron - water transfer, resulting in a decrease in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. In the off - season, affected by typhoons, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, and inventories increased slightly; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased, and inventories continued to accumulate. The supply - demand of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little, and the inventory of the five major steel products increased. Currently, steel inventories are low, and there are continuous production - restriction news before the parade. The fundamentals may improve, and with strong cost support, the futures prices are likely to rise. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Port trading volume increased. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly after the typhoon. The small - sample steel enterprise's iron - water production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter increased, remaining high year - on - year. The possibility of short - term production reduction due to profit reasons is small. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports increased compared to last week. The demand for iron ore is high, and there is an expectation of inventory depletion. The fundamental negative driving factors are limited, and prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The output of rebar decreased slightly, inventories increased, and the apparent demand decreased, in line with off - season characteristics. In terms of supply, the market sentiment is optimistic this week, and the arrival volume of scrap steel has been decreasing. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of electric furnaces was high in some areas due to high profits in the early stage. Although the iron - water production of blast furnaces decreased, the price difference between iron and scrap narrowed, increasing the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long and short - process production increased significantly. This week, the arrival volume increased significantly, and factory inventories increased slightly, with the available inventory days remaining slightly below normal. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both strong, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Prices are expected to follow the finished steel [9]. - **Coke**: Futures prices followed coking coal and oscillated strongly. On the spot side, the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port increased. After the fifth round of price increases was fully implemented, the profitability of coke enterprises improved, and production started to pick up, with coke production remaining stable. Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing, and the iron - water production remains high. Upstream coke enterprises have smooth sales, and inventories are continuously decreasing. Middle - stream futures and spot traders are gradually releasing supplies, and the arrival of coke at downstream steel mills has improved. Currently, the supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and prices still have short - term support. The fundamentals of coke are healthy. In the short term, with high iron - water production, its own driving force is weak, and prices are expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [10][11]. - **Coking Coal**: On the futures side, due to continuous news of over - production inspections at coal mines, the supply recovery is slow, and market sentiment has been boosted, with prices trending strongly. On the spot side, prices remained stable. On the supply side, the output of some coal mines is limited due to underground factors, and some coal mines have reduced their production in the second half of the year due to over - production inspections. The overall supply is slowly recovering. On the import side, the import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 vehicles. On the demand side, coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. After the previous round of concentrated purchases, downstream enterprises are now purchasing on - demand. Upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports. Affected by over - production inspections, the supply recovery of coking coal is expected to be slow. With poor supply expectations, market sentiment has improved, and prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Driven by the strong coking coal futures prices, the central price of manganese silicon futures increased yesterday. On the spot side, manufacturers are more willing to hold prices, and spot prices have been continuously adjusted upwards. On the cost side, coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The futures prices of manganese silicon are rising, and the overseas quotes are increasing, making manganese ore quotes firmer. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. However, as the industry's profitability improves, the manufacturers'复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. Currently, the market fundamentals have limited contradictions, and in the short term, manganese silicon prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the difficulty of market inventory depletion will increase, and the upside potential of prices is not optimistic [14]. - **Silicon Iron**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures prices continued to be strong, and the market's expectation of the "anti - involution" policy increased, driving up the silicon iron futures prices. On the spot side, the prices of semi - coke and settlement electricity prices have increased significantly, and with the strong futures prices, spot prices have also increased. On the supply side, as the industry's profitability improves, manufacturers' enthusiasm for复产 increases, and the output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. On the demand side, steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. In the magnesium market, due to tight supplies, magnesium manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices, but the market trading atmosphere has cooled, and the game between upstream and downstream continues. Currently, the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and in the short term, prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap may be filled, and the upside potential of prices should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [15].

中信期货有限公司 在途库存大幅走低 ──Kpler原油库存数据报告 CITIC Futures Company Limited 2025-08-04 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 6月以来全球陆上原油库存相对维稳，但7月18日至8月4日期间陆地与海上库存大幅走低，主要因在途船货减少，关注后期回溯调整情况。分 区域来看，近一周中国、印度库存走低,欧洲、俄罗斯、中东库存回升。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 2025 2022 - 2021 - 2023 千桶 250000 3700000 200000 3600000 150000 3500000 100000 3400000 3300000 50000 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 图表 3: 全球原油浮仓 2024 - 2023 2022 - - 2021 ~~/ 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第5周 第1周 图表 2: ...

| (1) 中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited | | 供应扰动不断,焦煤强势上涨 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员: 余奥 | 陶存群 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | | 从业资格号:F03122523 | 从业资格号:F03099559 | 从业资格号:F03100815 | 从业资格号: | | 授资咨询号:Z0019832 | 投资咨询号:Z0020955 | 投资咨询号:Z0021807 | 投资咨询号: | 今日双焦全面收涨，其中焦煤主力合约盘中触及涨停，JM2601收报1182.0元/吨。 2025/08/05 | 冉宇蒙 | | --- | | 从业资格号:F03144159 | | 授资咨询号:Z0022199 | 钟宏 从业资格号:F03118246 投资咨询号:Z0022727 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】 669 应急管理部8月4日发布消息: 《煤矿安全规程》已经2025年7月7日应急管理部第17次部务会议修订通过, 现予公布, 自2026 年2月1日起施行。据悉，新规在原有版本的基础上对安全规定内容 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The US dollar index strengthened to the upper edge of 100 during the week but quickly depreciated below 99 after the release of non - farm payroll data on Friday. The subsequent outlook suggests a further decline in the US dollar index, and the view of a downward trend in the US dollar is maintained for the year [2]. - The reasons for the mid - week strengthening of the US dollar include the agreement between the US and major trading partners, the closing of crowded short - dollar positions before events, and better - than - expected US Q2 GDP and ADP employment data as well as a hawkish Fed in July [2]. - The weak non - farm payroll data on Friday reversed the logic of the strengthening US dollar. The 3 - month average non - farm payrolls have been slowing since February 2025, and only 35,000 jobs were added as of July [2]. - The logic supporting the downward trend of the US dollar this year includes the slowdown of the US economy and further Fed rate cuts, the recovery of other economies and rising investment returns, and the room for the increase of foreign exchange hedging ratio [2]. Group 2: Other Observations - The spread between US and German yields oscillated downward while the US dollar index generally trended upward [4]. - The US Citigroup economic surprise index declined [5]. - The CFTC net position shows that the net short position of the US dollar has decreased [10]. - The euro swap basis indicates that the cross - border liquidity pressure of the US dollar is limited [12]. - Based on the 30 - 10Y US Treasury yield spread and 10Y swap spread, concerns about US Treasury deficits are not the main contradiction affecting the US dollar [14][17]. - The US dollar index rebounded above the 9 - day moving average, and the RSI indicator is approaching overbought [19]. - The gold - to - copper ratio declined and then rose again on August 1st. Crude oil prices climbed and then fell, and copper prices declined [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The consecutive upward adjustment of the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar reveals three signals: the central bank guides exchange - rate appreciation expectations through policies, reflecting an adjustment from "stabilizing the exchange rate" to "stabilizing expectations"; it responds to the "anti - involution" policy, as a moderate appreciation of the RMB helps reduce import costs, enhance domestic purchasing power and consumption levels; and it revises up the expected yield of RMB assets and guides enterprises to improve foreign exchange settlement behavior [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog a. Exchange - rate Data - On August 5, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar announced by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System was 7.1366, appreciating 29 basis points compared with the previous trading day's central parity rate of 7.1395. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has appreciated for two consecutive trading days, reaching the highest appreciation level since November 6, 2024 [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Small Variety Steel Weekly Data [2] - Report Date: August 4, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Dian, Tao Cunhui, Xue Yuan, Ran Yumeng, Zhong Hong [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - The report presents the weekly data of small variety steels in 2025, including actual production, apparent demand, steel enterprise inventory, social inventory, and total inventory for different types of steel products such as I-beams, H-beams, color-coated coils, galvanized coils, etc. It also shows the steel billet inventory and sample small variety steel inventory, along with their week-on-week changes [2]. Group 4: Summary by Steel Product Type I-beams (I-beams, Channels, Angles) - Actual Production: 36.76 tons on August 1, 2025, up 2.71 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 33.4 tons on August 1, 2025, down 6.59 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 86.65 tons on August 1, 2025, up 4 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 58.1 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.59 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 144.8 tons on August 1, 2025, up 3.41 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] H-beams - Actual Production: 22.97 tons on August 1, 2025, down 1.96 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 26 tons on August 1, 2025, down 3.17 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 17.4 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.8 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 65.53 tons on August 1, 2025, down 2.25 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 82.9 tons on August 1, 2025, down 3.05 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Color-coated Coils - Actual Production: 15.94 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.7 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 16.4 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.53 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 15.43 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.14 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 25.75 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.27 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 41.18 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.41 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Galvanized Coils - Actual Production: 90.55 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.49 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 91.4 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.92 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 44.71 tons on August 1, 2025, down 1.05 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 108.04 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.16 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 152.75 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.89 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Steel Billet Inventory - Mainstream Warehouse: 122.3 tons on August 1, 2025, up 5.52 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Rolling Steel Enterprises Adjusting Billet: 73.6 tons on August 1, 2025, down 3.1 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total: 195.9 tons on August 1, 2025, up 2.42 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Other Steel Products - Hot-rolled Strip Steel (Steel Enterprise Inventory): 31.65 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.37 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Hot-rolled Strip Steel (Social Inventory): 68.2241 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.85 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Welded Pipe (Social Inventory): 82.51 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.06 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Seamless Pipe (Social Inventory): 70.09 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.55 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Special Steel (Steel Enterprise Inventory): 135.25 tons on August 1, 2025, down 2.53 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Special Steel (Social Inventory): 127.93 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.03 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Sample Small Variety Steel Inventory - Total Inventory on August 1, 2025: 1133.2 tons, up 0.07 tons from July 25, 2025 [2]