1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Concerns about the Middle East situation continue to disrupt oil prices, and the chemical industry continues to fluctuate and consolidate. The series of events such as the US considering seizing Iranian oil tankers and the Israeli Prime Minister's visit to the US have raised market concerns about the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East [2]. - The recent maintenance plans of polyester industry chain enterprises have strengthened the expectation of a better pattern in the polyester chain. After the Spring Festival, the polyester production starts to rise, while the raw materials are still under maintenance, and the raw material supply is reduced or remains stable while the demand side rises. The strong pattern of raw materials will continue after the festival [3]. - Coal prices are stabilizing, and crude oil and chemical prices continue to fluctuate and consolidate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium continues to fluctuate, and the risk remains high around the holiday. The fundamentals of the current crude oil market are not optimistic, with high inventory levels of crude oil and refined oil. The weak reality and strong expectation are the main trading lines in the recent market. Geopolitical factors still support oil prices, but there is still great uncertainty in the US - Iran situation [8]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: Asphalt futures prices fluctuate at a high level. The relaxation of US sanctions on Venezuela may lead to an abundant supply of asphalt raw materials in the long - term. The current high asphalt prices are overvalued, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still large [9]. - **Outlook**: Volatility, with the long - term valuation expected to decline. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Fuel oil futures prices run at a high level. In the short - term, there is still geopolitical premium, but in the long - term, the increase in Venezuelan oil production and the substitution of fuel oil power generation in the Middle East will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil [10]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. It is affected by natural gas price fluctuations, and although it faces some negative factors, its current valuation is low [12]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: There is still support at the cost end, and PTA device maintenance is implemented. Short - term PX prices will fluctuate under the guidance of sentiment [13]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: PTA device maintenance eases the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure. The upstream cost provides short - term support, and the processing fee is expected to be significantly supported in the short - term [14]. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility and consolidation. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: The price fluctuation is mainly affected by crude oil prices and capital sentiment. In the short - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and some profit - taking may cause market fluctuations [16]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Overseas and domestic device restarts lead to a marginal loosening of supply and demand. The upward momentum has declined, and the export - driven support has weakened [21]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The import volume in the second quarter is revised downwards, and there is a weak repair expectation for supply and demand. The price has limited downside [22]. - **Outlook**: Short - term price range consolidation. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Both supply and demand decline, and trading is light. The price follows the upstream raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support below [25]. - **Outlook**: Follow the upstream raw materials. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The volatility narrows, and the trading atmosphere declines. The price follows the cost fluctuations before the festival [27]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price follows the raw materials, and pay attention to the long PR and short TA positions. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: Before the festival, coastal trading is suspended, and inland inventory clearance is coming to an end. Methanol fluctuates and consolidates. The Iranian situation is still uncertain [28]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Before the festival, orders are coming to an end, and urea fluctuates and consolidates. The supply is stable, and the price is expected to remain stable until after the Spring Festival [30]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: Before the long holiday, both long and short positions are cautious. After the price decline, it may fluctuate. It is affected by oil prices, market sentiment, and inventory, and there is an expectation of macro - consumption policy support [33]. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: Before the festival, both long and short positions are cautious. After the price decline, it fluctuates. It is affected by oil prices, market sentiment, and refinery profits, and there is an expectation of macro - consumption policy support [34]. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: Supported by the spot market, PL fluctuates. PDH maintenance provides some support, and the supply is under control [35]. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: With low valuation and weak expectation, PVC fluctuates. Geopolitical factors affect the market sentiment, and the "export rush" support may weaken [37]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The comprehensive profit is poor, and caustic soda weakly stabilizes. The chlorine - alkali profit is weak, and there is a risk of production reduction after the festival [38]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [41]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific summary content is provided in the given text for each variety under this section. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, special index, and sector index are provided. The comprehensive index shows an upward trend, and the energy index has positive daily, 5 - day, 1 - month, and year - to - date returns [283][285].

Group 1: Report Core View - The EIA data shows that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 8.53 million barrels in the week ending February 6, with net imports and production-demand both putting pressure on the inventory. The net imports increased by 912,000 barrels per day, and the production increased by 498,000 barrels per day mainly due to the rapid recovery of production after the cold wave. The refinery utilization rate continued its seasonal decline but remained at a high level for the same period. The gasoline inventory in the U.S. slightly accumulated in the week ending February 6, while the diesel inventory continued to decline. Overall, the pressure of petroleum product inventory accumulation has slowed down after the decline in the refinery utilization rate, but the single-week data has limited indication [4]. Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data - U.S. commercial crude oil inventory change: +8.53 million barrels (previous value: -3.455 million barrels) [6] - U.S. Cushing crude oil inventory change: <1.071 million barrels (previous value: -0.743 million barrels) [6] - U.S. strategic petroleum inventory change: -0.1 million barrels (previous value: +2.14 million barrels) [6] - U.S. gasoline inventory change: +1.16 million barrels (previous value: +0.685 million barrels) [6] - U.S. diesel inventory change: -2.703 million barrels (previous value: -5.553 million barrels) [6] - U.S. jet fuel inventory change: +0.349 million barrels (previous value: -0.661 million barrels) [6] - U.S. fuel oil inventory change: -0.31 million barrels (previous value: +0.17 million barrels) [6] - U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): -1.719 million barrels (previous value: -25.28 million barrels) [6] Production and Demand Data - U.S. crude oil production: 13.713 million barrels per day (previous value: 13.215 million barrels per day) [6] - U.S. refined product apparent demand: 21.108 million barrels per day (previous value: 21.353 million barrels per day) [6] - U.S. gasoline apparent demand: 8.3 million barrels per day (previous value: 8.153 million barrels per day) [6] - U.S. diesel apparent demand: 4.449 million barrels per day (previous value: 4.31 million barrels per day) [6] - U.S. crude oil imports: 6.805 million barrels per day (previous value: 6.201 million barrels per day) [6] - U.S. crude oil exports: 3.739 million barrels per day (previous value: 4.047 million barrels per day) [6] - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume: 16 million barrels per day (previous value: 16.029 million barrels per day) [6] - U.S. refinery utilization rate: 89.4% (previous value: 90.5%) [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - Geopolitical risks continue to disrupt, causing platinum and palladium to oscillate strongly. As of February 11, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 551.15 yuan/gram, up 1.91%, and the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 439.1 yuan/gram, down 1.68% [1] - In the short - term, the market is in a stage of shock consolidation, and in the long - term, the weakening trend of the US dollar credit is conducive to the release of long - term price elasticity. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be oscillating strongly [2] - The supply of palladium is uncertain, the spot is in short supply, and although there is structural pressure on the demand side, the price has clear support below. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be oscillating strongly [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: In the short - term, sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals, geopolitical issues between the US and Iran, and fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations disrupt the market, and pre - holiday trading is cautious. In the long - term, the US is in an interest - rate cut channel, and the weakening of the US dollar credit is conducive to price elasticity. The platinum - palladium ratio has fallen to a low - level range this week [2] - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive [2] Palladium - **Main Logic**: Supply is uncertain due to US investigations on Russian palladium imports and potential European sanctions. The palladium lease rate has risen, and the spot shortage supports the price. There is structural pressure on the demand side. Although long - term supply and demand tend to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations support the price [3] - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. The spot shortage and the improving macro - environment support the price [3] Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2390.85, up 0.32%; the commodity 20 index was 2729.71, up 0.27%; the industrial products index was 2290.96, up 0.41% [49] - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on February 11, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.24%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.08%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.51%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.32%. The PPI commodity index was 1407.45, up 0.18% [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market is expected to remain volatile before the holiday, with the price - rising chain leading the gains. It is advisable to hold a neutral position for the holiday, and the probability of a liquidity tail - risk is relatively low [2][6]. - For stock index options, it is recommended to continue holding call options for defense, which is to protect the systematic risk of the overall position rather than indicating a bearish view [2][6]. - The bond market is supported by the expectation of monetary easing. In the medium - term, the central bank's monetary policy may further strengthen, while in the short - term, the bond market may be volatile as the bond interest rate approaches a critical point [3][7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, the equity market showed a shrinking and volatile trend. The price - rising chain represented by building materials and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while sectors such as media and hardware were weak. The market style switched to some extent. The number of daily limit stocks decreased compared to Tuesday, and trading volume dropped to around 2 trillion, indicating that funds reduced trading frequency before the holiday [2][6]. - **Tail - risk Analysis**: The previous risks mainly came from commodity fluctuations and the decline of overseas software stocks. Recently, these two risk factors have eased, with the volatility of precious metals and non - ferrous metals decreasing, and U.S. retail investors starting to focus on oversold software stocks. The probability of a liquidity tail - risk is relatively low [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IM [6]. 3.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The equity index oscillated and consolidated. The trading volume of each option variety declined again. Compared with the previous two weeks, the trading volume of options this week was relatively stable. The implied volatility rebounded intraday [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold call options for defense to protect the systematic risk of the overall position [2][6]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: The performance of treasury bond futures was relatively strong, especially for T and TF contracts. The T main contract opened higher in the morning and showed a high - level oscillation throughout the day. The bullish sentiment in the bond market was released, and the expectation of monetary easing may have driven the bond market sentiment [7]. - **Supporting Factors**: The central bank was active in open - market operations, conducting both 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a large amount of 14 - day reverse repurchase, which may ease market concerns about the Spring Festival capital. The central bank emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy in the Q4 2025 monetary policy implementation report, and the market interpreted it positively. The January price data showed that PPI increased year - on - year while CPI decreased year - on - year and was slightly lower than expected, which may have boosted the bullish sentiment in the bond market [3][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: oscillate. Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at the low basis. Basis strategy: the basis is expected to be volatile. Curve strategy: appropriately pay attention to the convergence of the 30Y - 10Y spread. For cross - period roll - over, the cross - period spread may have a downward momentum, and also pay attention to the change of the roll - over window period due to the Spring Festival [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong employment data in January reshaped the interest rate cut expectations, leading to increased high - level volatility in precious metals. Gold is under short - term pressure, and the trading focus returns to the interest rate path. Silver's financial attribute is under pressure, and the structural differentiation continues [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Logic**: The new employment and salary data are higher than expected, and the unemployment rate has fallen, strengthening the narrative of labor market resilience. The market's pricing of the easing rhythm this year needs adjustment. The dollar and yields rebound simultaneously, and the expected real interest rate rises, directly suppressing non - interest - bearing assets. Before the data release, the bond market yield was at a stage low, and there was a weak data expectation gap. Strong data triggered reverse hedging and long - position profit - taking, intensifying price fluctuations [1]. - **Outlook**: Before the employment and salary show clear weakening signals, the interest rate cut trading is difficult to develop unilaterally. The gold price may enter a stage of high - level oscillation and repeated sentiment. In the medium term, it still depends on the direction of the real interest rate and the change of the dollar trend [1]. Silver - **Logic**: The strong employment data boosts interest rate expectations, and the financial attribute of silver is under pressure. The industrial demand expectation has not weakened significantly, making the silver price more elastic than the gold price, but with more prominent high - volatility characteristics. The Shanghai silver maintains relative strength, indicating that the internal - external market structure has not completely weakened, but the capital game has intensified [2]. - **Outlook**: If the dollar and yields remain strong, the silver price volatility will remain high. If the subsequent macro data weakens again, silver still has room for repair under the "interest rate cut + risk hedging" framework [2]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2390.85, up 0.32%; the commodity 20 index is 2729.71, up 0.27%; the industrial products index is 2290.96, up 0.41% [40]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 11, 2026, the precious metals index was 4268.21, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a 5 - day decline of 1.35%, a 1 - month decline of 2.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.61% [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The weakening of the hawkish expectations trading on Wash has led to an upward trend in the prices of basic metals. Although the macro - outlook has improved, it is still unclear. The raw material supply remains tight, and there are still potential disturbances in the smelting process, providing strong support on the supply side. The terminal demand is weak currently, but there is an expectation of tightened supply - demand balance in the medium term. Overall, copper, aluminum, tin and other metals are expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillatory trend [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - **Copper**: High inventory levels will keep copper prices oscillating at a high level. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the expected reduction in refined copper supply is increasing. However, weak demand and high inventory limit the upward potential of copper prices. In the long - term, copper prices are expected to be moderately strong [6]. - **Alumina**: The expectation of production cuts is pitted against the reality of oversupply, causing alumina prices to oscillate. The average spot price has dropped, and the high - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, increasing the expectation of supply reduction. But the actual supply reduction is insufficient, and the cost is also decreasing [7]. - **Aluminum**: The repeated sentiment of funds causes aluminum prices to fluctuate within a narrow range. The macro - outlook is expected to be positive, but the current demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the price center is likely to rise [8][9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support persists, and prices will oscillate. The cost of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. Although the demand is affected by high prices, the cost support and the expected supply - demand balance will keep prices moderately strong [10]. - **Zinc**: The significant accumulation of social inventory will keep zinc prices oscillating. The macro - outlook has improved, but the supply pressure has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long - term, zinc prices are expected to decline [11]. - **Lead**: Solid cost support will keep lead prices oscillating. The production of lead ingots has decreased slightly, and the demand is weakening, but the high cost of waste batteries provides support [14]. - **Nickel**: The release of Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota has pushed nickel prices higher. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is in the off - season. However, the adjustment of Indonesia's policy on nickel ore has supported nickel prices, and it is expected to be moderately strong [15][16]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rise in nickel prices has led to an upward - oscillating trend in the stainless - steel market. The cost is supported, but the production is expected to decline in February due to the Spring Festival, and the demand is weak. Overall, it is expected to be moderately strong [17]. - **Tin**: The continuous supply contraction provides strong support for tin prices. The supply in some regions is still restricted, and the demand in semiconductor, photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, so tin prices are expected to be moderately strong [19]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On February 11, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial product index of CITICS Futures all showed an upward trend, with increases of 0.32%, 0.27%, and 0.41% respectively. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.24% on the day, decreased by 0.08% in the past 5 days, decreased by 5.51% in the past month, and increased by 0.32% since the beginning of the year [147][148].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: Before the festival, demand weakens, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures price is under pressure to adjust downward, but the downward space is limited due to pre - two sessions macro disturbances [7] - Iron ore: The inventory pressure increases, the supply side has weather disturbance expectations, the post - festival demand expectation is average, and the futures price is under pressure to oscillate [8] - Scrap steel: Supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] - Coke: Supply growth is limited, downstream steel mills have复产 expectations, the supply - demand structure is healthy, the spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures price will follow coking coal [10] - Coking coal: Before and after the Spring Festival, supply and demand are expected to decline. After the festival, the resumption of production is restricted, the fundamentals may remain healthy, the spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures price will oscillate widely [11] - Glass: Supply has disturbance expectations, mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, supply exceeds demand, and high inventories will suppress prices if there is no more cold repair by the end of the year [12] - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [12] - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the upstream de - stocking pressure increases, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost [14] - Ferrosilicon: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have limited contradictions, the trading activity is low around the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The inventory pressure continues to increase, the supply side has weather disturbance expectations, the current market's post - festival demand expectation is average, the futures price is under pressure, but after the rapid decline, the pressure is released. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The global shipping volume has declined slightly this period, mainly due to the impact of tropical cyclones in Australia. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side will maintain a relatively loose pattern. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and the support for prices may weaken as restocking progresses [2][7][8] - Scrap steel: Supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products. The average arrival volume this week has decreased significantly, and the daily consumption has also decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has increased, and the total inventory available days are close to the same period last year [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: Supply growth is limited, downstream steel mills have复产 expectations, the supply - demand structure will remain healthy, the spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures price will follow coking coal. After the first round of price increases, the coking profit has improved significantly, and the overall coke supply has increased. The demand side has a strong rigid demand for coke, and the inventory of steel mills has increased, but the available days are lower than the same period [2][10] - Coking coal: Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are expected to decline. After the festival, the resumption of production of coal mines is still restricted, the fundamentals may remain healthy, the spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures price will oscillate widely. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of domestic coal mines will decline, and the import of Mongolian coal is still at a high level. The inventory of coking coal is transferring from upstream mines to downstream [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the upstream de - stocking pressure increases, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost. The upstream inventory is high, the cost price is firm, the demand side's support for prices weakens, and the market inventory may further accumulate [3][14] - Ferrosilicon: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have limited contradictions, the trading activity is low around the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost. The cost side has strengthened support, the demand side's support for prices weakens, and the daily production level of ferrosilicon continues to be low [3][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Supply has disturbance expectations, mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, supply exceeds demand, and high inventories will suppress prices if there is no more cold repair by the end of the year. The short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply side is difficult to have a large number of cold repairs in the short term, and the demand side is weak, and the mid - level inventory suppresses the futures price [3][12] - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline. The supply side's daily output has increased, the demand side's demand for heavy soda ash is weakening, and the overall downstream demand is showing a downward trend [3][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodity futures markets closed with most rising, led by new energy materials. Lithium carbonate rose 9.18%, while shipping futures led the decline, with the Container Shipping Index (European Line) down 1.42% [1] - The U.S. economy shows weak stability in overall volume and structural differentiation. The manufacturing PMI in January was favorable, but the non - manufacturing sector weakened and employment data was below expectations [1] - In January 2026, China's PPI was - 1.4% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, while CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [1] - Domestic equity markets are supported by policy expectations and additional liquidity. Treasury bonds are neutral overall, with better short - end opportunities. Gold in precious metals maintains a long - position standard, and silver is on the sidelines. Non - ferrous metals are still promising, and black commodities are volatile. Crude oil may rise due to geopolitical support, but it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: New energy materials led the gains, with lithium carbonate up 9.18%. Shipping futures led the decline, with the Container Shipping Index (European Line) down 1.42%. Basic metals, energy products, agricultural and sideline products, precious metals, chemicals, and oilseeds mostly rose, while black commodities mostly fell, and non - metallic building materials were mixed [1] - **Financial Markets**: Stock index futures showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. Treasury bond futures had slight fluctuations. The U.S. dollar index and related exchange - rate indicators had certain changes. Interest - rate indicators such as bond yields also fluctuated [8] - **Industry Indexes**: Non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, and building materials had relatively large increases, while defense, electronics, and media had declines [9][10] - **Overseas Commodities**: Energy products such as oil and natural gas had different price changes. Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products also showed various trends [11][12] - **Domestic Main Commodities**: Different commodities in shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products had different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual price changes [13][14][15] Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate moderately upward, stock index options focus on call - option defense, and treasury bond futures fluctuate narrowly [4] - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver prices are in a stage of adjustment, with short - term fluctuations due to weakening previous positive drivers and reduced capital enthusiasm before the Spring Festival [4] - **Shipping Sector**: The pre - holiday market is shrinking, and the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is expected to fluctuate [4] - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Pre - holiday demand has declined, and products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to fluctuate. Glass and soda ash prices also fluctuate [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: With the weakening of hawkish expectations, non - ferrous metals stop falling and fluctuate. Products such as copper, nickel, and stainless steel are expected to have different trends [4] - **Energy Chemical Sector**: Geopolitical situations support oil prices, and chemical products continue to trade sideways. It is advisable to hold light positions during the holiday. Various chemical products are expected to fluctuate [5] - **Agricultural Sector**: As the holiday approaches, most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate. Some products such as live pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly downward [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On February 11, most equity index and CGB futures rose, and most commodities also showed high performances, with Lithium Carbonate and Nickel leading the raise [10][11][12] - The fundamentals of Lithium Carbonate are strong with continuous social inventory destocking, providing upward momentum for prices, but macro uncertainties are high during the Spring Festival, so investors are advised to exit temporarily and participate cautiously [19][20] - The fundamentals of Nickel have not shown marginal improvement, and the overall supply and demand in February are expected to remain loose with high visible inventories, but Indonesian policies provide some support to prices, so it is recommended to hold light positions cautiously before the holiday and continue to watch for dip - buying opportunities in the medium term [27][28][30] - Silicon Metal is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to remain range - bound. Although the supply - demand balance may improve around the Spring Festival after major producer cuts, medium - to - long - term prices will be pressured by flexible supply, weak demand and industry oversupply [33][35][36] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On February 11, in equity index futures, IC rose 0.4% and IF dropped 0.1%; in CGB futures, T rose 0.06%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Lithium Carbonate (up 9.2% with open interest increasing 3.0% month - on - month), Nickel (up 4.0% with open interest decreasing 4.7% month - on - month), and Tin (up 3.3% with open interest decreasing 2.9% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 1.4% with open interest decreasing 2.6% month - on - month), Coke (down 0.9% with open interest increasing 2.3% month - on - month), and Glass (down 0.7% with open interest increasing 0.4% month - on - month) [10][11][12] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - On February 11, the front - month contract of Lithium Carbonate rose 9.2% to 150,260 yuan/ton. The rally was driven by strong supply - demand fundamentals, with the market expecting a post - holiday tight balance. However, the fundamentals have marginally weakened, with new energy vehicle wholesale sales up 1% year - on - year in January and port lithium ore inventories increasing. Demand - side production scheduling in March is expected to be solid, while supply will see a notable rise in imports. Before the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo project, a tight balance is forecast to persist [15][17][18] 1.2.2 Nickel - On February 11, affected by Indonesia approving a nickel ore quota of approximately 260 - 270 million tons, the front - month contract of Nickel rose 4.0% to 139,360 yuan/ton. Considering the concentrated capacity expansion of HPAL projects in Indonesia in 2026, the domestic demand for nickel ore is expected to be around 15% higher than the approved quota. Fundamentally, supply - side pressure persists, demand is in the off - season, and global visible inventories are high. Indonesian policies support prices, but high inventories may limit the upside [24][25][26] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Silicon Metal - On February 11, the front - month contract of Silicon Metal dropped 0.5% to 8,370 yuan/ton. The supply side is affected by the dry season in the southwest and producer cuts in the northwest, with short - term supply pressure easing but long - term oversupply pressure remaining. The demand side is weak, with polysilicon, silicone having high inventories and reduced output. The supply - demand balance may improve around the Spring Festival, but medium - to - long - term prices will be pressured [33][34][35] 2. China News 2.1 Industry News - In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month on month and 0.2% year on year, and the core CPI increased 0.8% year on year as consumer demand continued to recover [39] - The PBOC will continue to implement a properly accommodative monetary policy, taking promoting steady economic growth and a reasonable recovery in prices as important considerations, and flexibly using various policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and relatively accommodative social financing conditions [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having various outlooks such as oscillation, oscillation - weakening, and oscillation - strengthening [1][6][7]. - For different commodities: - Oils: Narrow - range oscillation, with multiple factors affecting supply and demand, and a suggestion to consider buying hedging strategies at low - callback levels [6]. - Protein meals: Domestic double meals oscillate mainly, with international factors supporting US soybeans and domestic factors affecting the market [1][7]. - Corn: Oscillates, with industry news and emotions affecting futures, and attention to post - holiday trading and inventory replenishment rhythms [8]. - Pigs: Oscillates weakly, with supply - demand being loose, and different trends in the short, medium, and long - term [9]. - Natural rubber: Oscillates, with attention to previous high resistance, and the market influenced by capital and fundamentals [11][12]. - Synthetic rubber: Oscillates upward following natural rubber, with the mid - term bullish logic remaining unchanged [13]. - Cotton: Oscillates strongly in the medium - long term, waiting for new driving forces in the short term [14]. - Sugar: Oscillates weakly in the medium - long term, with a downward driving force due to expected oversupply [16]. - Pulp: Oscillates, with weak supply - demand before the Spring Festival and expected improvement after the festival [17]. - Double - gum paper: Oscillates weakly, with the market in a low - level oscillation during the holiday [18]. - Logs: Oscillates, with the spot being stable and the market in a range - bound operation [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1. Oils - **View**: Oils show narrow - range oscillation. The US Department of Agriculture's February report adjusted relevant data, and the market is affected by factors such as demand expectations, biodiesel policies, and export performance. It is recommended to pay attention to buying hedging strategies at low - callback levels [6]. - **Logic**: Futures are affected by capital emotions, and the industrial end has different supply - demand situations for different oils. For example, soybeans have relatively sufficient supply, and palm oil has inventory and export issues [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all oscillate [6]. 3.1.2. Protein Meals - **View**: Optimistic emotions support US soybeans, and domestic double meals oscillate mainly [1][7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the USDA's February supply - demand report is bearish, but the market has optimistic export expectations and the US biodiesel plan boosts US soybean oil. Domestically, factors such as pre - holiday capital flight, logistics stagnation, and expected post - holiday cost reduction affect the market [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillate [1][7]. 3.1.3. Corn - **View**: Industry news disturbs the market, and corn increases positions and rises [8]. - **Logic**: Futures are affected by industry news and emotions, while the spot market is gradually entering the holiday, with stable prices and low trading volume. Attention should be paid to factors such as grain sales progress, policy grain auctions, and wheat conditions [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with attention to post - holiday trading and inventory replenishment rhythms [8]. 3.1.4. Pigs - **View**: Supply - demand is loose, and spot prices continue to weaken [9]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, there are different situations in the short, medium, and long - term; demand shows an increase in slaughter volume; inventory shows a continuous decrease in average pig weight. The price is expected to weaken in the short - term and is affected by different production capacities in different periods [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - weakening, with a potential bottom - out and recovery in the second half of 2026 [9]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **View**: Pay attention to previous high resistance [11][12]. - **Logic**: The rubber price runs strongly, mainly driven by capital emotions. The short - term support is effective, and the overall is in a bullish trend. The current trading logic is mainly affected by the macro - environment, with relatively weak fundamentals but good expectations [11][12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with limited fundamental variables and increasing capital attention [12]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Follow natural rubber to oscillate upward [13]. - **Logic**: The BR market follows natural rubber to rise slightly, and the mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. The raw material market is affected by factors such as export news and downstream demand [13]. - **Outlook**: Mid - term oscillation - strengthening, with a need for adjustment in the short - term due to rapid price increase [13]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **View**: Cotton price rebounds [14]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range. After the festival, with the arrival of the traditional peak season, the terminal demand may drive the price to rise. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand is expected to be in tight balance, and the planting area in Xinjiang may decrease [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - strengthening, with a suggestion to buy on dips [14]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **View**: Sugar price oscillates weakly in the medium - long term [16]. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have oversupply in the 25/26 crushing season, with major producing countries expected to increase production. The supply increase puts pressure on the price [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - weakening, with a suggestion to short on rebounds [16]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **View**: Spot prices are almost stagnant, and futures fluctuate independently [17]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand is weak, with low demand from the terminal and downstream. After the festival, the seasonal recovery of demand may bring marginal benefits. The valuation support has weakened, and the downward space is limited [17]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with weak supply - demand before the festival and expected improvement after the festival [17]. 3.1.10. Double - gum Paper - **View**: Factories enter the holiday, and the market maintains low - level oscillation [18]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the trading in the double - gum paper market ends, with stable spot prices and low - level oscillation. The industry is affected by factors such as production line operation, downstream consumption, and market demand [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - weakening, with the market expected to be stagnant during the holiday and attention to the post - holiday consumption recovery [18]. 3.1.11. Logs - **View**: Spot prices are stable, and the market operates within a range [20]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the log market trading is basically stagnant, with stable spot prices and range - bound oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as news, valuation, supply, and delivery [20]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with the market having no new driving force in the short - term and maintaining range - bound operation [20]. 3.2. Commodity Index - On February 11, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index), and plate index (agricultural product index) of CITIC Futures all showed certain changes. For example, the comprehensive index increased by 0.32%, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.27%, the industrial product index increased by 0.41%, and the agricultural product index increased by 0.34% on that day [179][180].