1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index futures market, maintain the idea of actively allocating before the Two Sessions, and recommend continuing to hold IC long - positions. The market shows a pattern where small - cap stocks outperform large - cap stocks, and market volume remains high with capital migration rather than withdrawal [1][7]. - In the stock index options market, although the market lacks momentum, there is still local upward movement and the overall sentiment remains good. It is recommended to buy call options and bull spreads for mid - cap growth and science - innovation styles, and observe the subsequent fluctuations and volume inflection points for other varieties before switching back to covered calls [2][7]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the bond market sentiment is recovering. However, the market sentiment is still vulnerable to external factors such as stock market fluctuations, and it is necessary to closely monitor the release of subsequent economic data [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, small - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks. The CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 indices led the gains, while the banking, non - banking finance, and non - ferrous metals sectors dragged down the performance of the CSI 300 index. Market volume remained high, showing capital migration [1][7]. - **Suggestions**: Maintain the idea of positive allocation before the Two Sessions and continue to hold IC long - positions [1][7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Performance**: The underlying market was mainly volatile yesterday. The CSI 500, CSI 1000, and Science and Technology Innovation Index rose, while large - cap varieties declined. Option market trading volume was 11.31 billion yuan, slightly down 2.64% from the previous day. Most implied volatility varieties fluctuated, with the average of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF rising significantly [2][7]. - **Suggestions**: Buy call options and bull spreads for mid - cap growth and science - innovation styles, and observe subsequent fluctuations and volume inflection points for other varieties before switching back to covered calls [2][7]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose across the board yesterday. The central bank conducted 9.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month repurchase agreements. The inter - bank liquidity was stable and loose, and the DR001 rate rose slightly to around 1.27%. The on - collateralized repurchase trading volume reached a record high of 89 trillion yuan on Wednesday [3][7][8]. - **Suggestions**: For trend strategies, maintain a volatile view; for hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening; for curve strategies, the yield curve may remain steep [9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's December SPGI Services PMI was 52, China's December foreign exchange reserves were 3.358 trillion US dollars, the US December ADP employment change was 4.1 million, the Eurozone November unemployment rate was 6.3%, and the Eurozone December economic sentiment index was 96.7. There are still data such as China's December CPI and PPI annual rates, US December non - farm payrolls, and the initial value of the US January University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index to be released [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Geopolitics: On January 7, local time, US President Trump signed a presidential memorandum instructing the US to withdraw from 66 international organizations [11]. - Artificial Intelligence: The Chinese government supports enterprises in conducting cross - border business and international technological cooperation in accordance with laws and regulations. The Ministry of Commerce will evaluate and investigate the consistency of Meta's acquisition of the artificial intelligence platform Manus with relevant laws and regulations [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Details of basis, spreads between contracts, and total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, but specific data summaries are not further elaborated in this output [7]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not elaborated in the given text. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Information on trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL is provided, but specific data summaries are not further elaborated in this output [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual outlooks for each agricultural product, including "oscillating and slightly bullish", "oscillating", etc. [2][6][8][11][12][15][16][18][19][21][22] Core Viewpoints - The overall agricultural product market shows a pattern of price fluctuations with both upward and downward pressures. Each product is affected by different supply - demand, policy, and weather factors, resulting in different price trends [2][6][8][11][12][15][16][18][19][21][22] Summary by Variety Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is warming up, and the futures market is rising with increased positions. It is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish [1][11] - **Logic**: Factors such as corn purchase announcements, premium sales of CGC corn, and restricted participation in old wheat auctions have ignited bullish sentiment. Farmers' selling pressure is less likely to be released intensively. Downstream has built up some inventory, and the impact of policy grain source release is limited [1][11] Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand report is expected to be bearish, but the spot is firm, and the prices of double meals are falling. It is expected that soybeans, double meals, and rapeseed meal will oscillate [7][8] - **Logic**: Internationally, there are expectations of a South American soybean harvest, and speculative funds are reducing long positions. Domestically, the purchase of US soybeans is slow, and the inventory of feed enterprises is increasing [7][8] Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Affected by supply - side news, the trends of oils and fats are slightly differentiated. It is expected that soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will oscillate [6] - **Logic**: Different oils are affected by factors such as supply expectations, cost concerns, and macro - environment. For example, the supply of Canadian rapeseed oil is expected to ease, and the production of palm oil may be disrupted [6] Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The price of pork is fluctuating slightly due to the rotation of pork reserves. It is expected to oscillate [12] - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply may increase before the Spring Festival, and the demand decreases after the New Year's Day. In the long - term, the supply pressure may gradually weaken after May 2026 [12] Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It may experience a significant short - term adjustment. In the short - term, it is treated as bullish [15] - **Logic**: Affected by the overall commodity market adjustment, although the fundamentals change little, the rubber price may be affected. The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is weak after the price rise [15] Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The market is strongly bullish, but a correction should be watched out for. It is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the medium - term [16] - **Logic**: The medium - term bullish logic is based on the expected improvement of butadiene fundamentals. The short - term commodity adjustment may affect the upward trend [16] Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price is correcting with a reduction in positions. It is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the long - term [17][18] - **Logic**: The medium - and long - term price is supported by a tight domestic balance and the expectation of reduced planting area in Xinjiang. However, there is a risk of correction after the recent price increase [18] Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is fluctuating slightly. It is expected to be oscillating and bearish in the medium - and long - term [18] - **Logic**: The global and domestic sugar supply is increasing, and there is downward pressure on the price [18] Pulp - **Viewpoint**: Affected by the change in the financial market, the pulp price is weakening. It is expected to oscillate [19] - **Logic**: The supply and demand fundamentals have little change. There are both bullish and bearish factors, and the market is affected by both funds and fundamentals [19] Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market is cooling down, and the market is correcting. It is expected to oscillate [20][21] - **Logic**: There are limited fundamental changes, and the market is affected by market sentiment. The price may be supported in the short - term but may be weak in the long - term due to weak demand [21] Logs - **Viewpoint**: The market is warming up, and the logs are following the strong trend of the black - goods sector. It is expected to oscillate within a range from January to February [22] - **Logic**: The supply pressure will be marginally relieved from January to February. The futures market has certain support and game points [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, demand seasonally weakens. With the gradual resumption of production by steel mills, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel side becomes apparent, and fundamental contradictions start to accumulate. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory limits the upside space. The supply - side expectations of coking coal are still volatile, and winter storage support is limited. The glass and soda ash market is suppressed by oversupply. After a weak adjustment, the prices of furnace materials are expected to rise from low levels before the Spring Festival, but the upside space is limited by steel mill profits [1][2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Port inventory continues to accumulate. There are expected disruptions on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need verification. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The daily port trading volume is 103(+42.8) million tons. The price of spot market quotes fell by 3 - 11 yuan/ton. Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly, while arrivals increased. The iron - making rate of steel mills weakened slightly, and the restocking demand increased but the rhythm was slow [2][8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventory is high, and restocking slows down. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum, but the good electric - furnace profit and high daily consumption support demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate. This week, the average daily arrival volume decreased, and the total daily consumption of the latest sample electric furnaces remained stable at a high level. The inventory of long - process steel mills is high, and restocking slows down [2][10] Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As mid - and downstream winter storage and restocking gradually start, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive spot - futures and speculative demand to enter the market for purchases, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal market. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke is 1480 yuan/ton (+10), and the port basis of the 05 contract is - 115 yuan/ton (+8) [2][12] - **Coking Coal**: As the New Year approaches, the intensity of winter storage gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, and the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally. The futures and spot prices still have upward momentum. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1250 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1200 yuan/ton (+93) [2][12][13] Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The pattern of loose supply and demand of silicomanganese continues. The upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure for hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to near the cost valuation. The ex - factory price of 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton (+100), and the price of 45.0% Australian ore blocks at Tianjin Port is 42 yuan/ton - degree (+0.2) [3][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: Currently, the supply pressure of ferrosilicon is not great, but after profit repair, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear. In an environment of weak supply and demand, the upside space of the futures price should be viewed with caution. The ex - factory price of 72 ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5370 yuan/ton (0), and the price of 99.9% magnesium ingots in Fugu is 16750 yuan/ton (+400) [3][19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expected disruptions in supply, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1020 yuan/ton (+10), and the national average price is 1086 yuan/ton (+5) [3][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1200 yuan/ton (-) [3][17] Other Information - **Steel**: The inventory begins to accumulate, and the futures price falls from a high level. The spot market trading volume weakens. The price of Hangzhou rebar is 3290 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3270 (-10) yuan/ton. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil increases. The demand in the off - season weakens seasonally, and the overall steel inventory stops falling and rebounds [8] - **Commodity Index**: On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 1.06% to 2380.19, the commodity 20 index decreased by 1.00% to 2717.76, and the industrial product index decreased by 1.19% to 2317.04. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.69% on that day, increased by 2.50% in the past 5 days, increased by 4.93% in the past month, and increased by 2.50% since the beginning of the year [106][107][109]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On January 8, equity index futures diverged, CGB futures rose, and most commodities declined, with PS and EC leading the losses [2][11] - The supply - demand balance for polysilicon remains relatively loose, and the price trend is in a tug - of - war between weak fundamentals and industry price - supporting actions [18][19] - Platinum prices were pressured by profit - taking and a strengthening dollar, and geopolitical risks may exacerbate volatility. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase [24][26] - Palladium supply is disrupted by the Russian geopolitical issue, and although long - term supply - demand eases, short - term prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [30][32] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 8, in equity index futures, IM rose 0.7% while IF dropped 0.7%; in CGB, TL rose 0.37% and T rose 0.15% [11] - Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were Coking Coal (up 4.8% with open interest down 1.5% month - on - month), Glass (up 2.6% with open interest up 6.4% month - on - month), and Coke (up 2.6% with open interest down 1.3% month - on - month) [12][13] - The top three losers were Polysilicon (down 9.0% with open interest dropping 14.4% month - on - month), SCFIS（Europe）(down 9.0% with open interest down 8.3% month - on - month), and Platinum (down 6.7% with open interest decreasing 2.4% month - on - month) [13][14] 1.2 Daily Dropped 1.2.1 Poly - Silicon - On January 8, Poly - Silicon dropped 9.0% to 53610 yuan per ton. Futures fell sharply with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit down in the afternoon [17][19] - The supply - demand balance is loose, but both upstream and downstream have strong price - supporting willingness. Supply may adjust with demand, and demand from the downstream provides limited support [18][19] 1.2.2 Platinum - On January 8, Platinum dropped by 6.7% to 575 yuan per gram [23][26] - Affected by profit - taking and a strengthening dollar, the precious metals sector retreated, and geopolitical risks may exacerbate price volatility. The price spread between domestic and international markets has narrowed [24][26] - The supply side in South Africa faces risks, and the demand side is in a structural expansion phase with multiple growth drivers [25][26] 1.2.3 Palladium - On January 8, Palladium dropped by 3.6% to 460.7 yuan per gram [29][31] - The Russian geopolitical issue disrupts supply, and demand is under structural pressure. Short - term spot shortages keep prices firm, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [30][32] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - MOFCOM will assess whether Meta's acquisition of Manus complies with relevant Chinese laws and regulations on export control, technology import and export, and overseas investment [37][39] - MFA stated that the US arbitrary seizure of foreign vessels on the high seas seriously violates international law [38][39] 2.2 Industry News - In 2025, China's national futures market recorded a cumulative trading volume of 9.074 billion lots and a cumulative turnover of 766.25 trillion yuan, representing year - on - year growth of 17.4% and 23.74% respectively [40][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to medium - term, due to the repeated policy expectations, the trends of new energy metals are diverging, with silicon materials experiencing a sharp decline. Long - term supply contraction of silicon is expected, and the long - term supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated [2] - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has cooled, and the silicon price has dropped significantly. The price of polysilicon continues to be highly volatile due to repeated policy expectations. The market sentiment for lithium carbonate has weakened, and the lithium price is oscillating at a high level [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the silicon price has dropped significantly, with an expected oscillating trend [3][6] - **Information Analysis**: As of January 8, the spot prices of industrial silicon were stable. The domestic inventory decreased by 1.3% month - on - month, with market inventory down 0.5% and factory inventory down 1.8%. In December 2025, domestic monthly production was 39.7 tons, down 1.2% month - on - month but up 19.8% year - on - year. From January to December, the cumulative production was 426.8 tons, down 12.9% year - on - year. In November, exports were 54,888 tons, up 21.8% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year. From January to November, cumulative exports were 660,000 tons, down 0.8% year - on - year. In November, new photovoltaic installations were 22GW, up 75% month - on - month but down 12% year - on - year. From January to November, cumulative new installations were 275GW, up 33% year - on - year. Shaanxi plans to implement a differential electricity price policy for industrial silicon enterprises from July 1, 2026 [6] - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, some northern silicon plants may stop production for maintenance in January, and the supply pressure from the northwest may ease slightly. The southwest is in a dry season, and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan have dropped. On the demand side, the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is weak. The industry inventory has slightly increased, and the overall inventory is under pressure. The supply pressure has been partially relieved, but the demand has also weakened, and the fundamentals remain weak [6] Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Policy expectations are repeated, and the polysilicon price continues to be highly volatile, with an expected oscillating trend [3][6] - **Information Analysis**: In the week of January 8, the average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock was 59,200 yuan/ton, up 9.83% week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 50 to 4,390. In November 2025, the export volume was about 3,230 tons, down 18% year - on - year; from January to November, the cumulative export volume was 23,445 tons, down 32% year - on - year. The import volume in November was about 1,055 tons, down 62% year - on - year; from January to November, the cumulative import volume was 17,178 tons, down 53% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the new domestic photovoltaic installation capacity was 274.89GW, up 33% year - on - year. A polysilicon platform company was registered, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands [6][7][8] - **Main Logic**: The concern about polysilicon antitrust has increased, and the price has dropped significantly. In the dry season, the production in the southwest has decreased. The photovoltaic installation growth rate was high in the first five months but declined in the second half of the year, and the demand for polysilicon has gradually weakened since November. The demand has declined marginally, and the weak fundamentals remain unchanged, so the price may be under pressure [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has weakened, and the lithium price is oscillating at a high level, with an expected slightly strong oscillating trend [3][6] - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.9% to 145,000 yuan/ton, and the total open interest increased by 25,949 to 989,870. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of spodumene concentrate increased by 30 dollars/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 590 to 25,770. The weekly production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, and the inventory increased by 337 tons to 109,972 tons, with different changes in different links [11] - **Main Logic**: The current demand for lithium carbonate has weakened marginally, but the long - term demand expectation is strong, and the supply remains high. The market is optimistic about January's demand. The new policy may affect the short - term supply release, and geopolitical issues also pose challenges to supply. The fundamentals are slightly weak, but the long - term expectation is good, with frequent supply disturbances. The price is expected to be slightly strong in oscillation. It is not advisable to chase the high price, and it is recommended to buy on dips [12] 2.行情监测 - **Industrial Silicon**: Not provided with specific content - **Polysilicon**: Not provided with specific content - **Lithium Carbonate**: Not provided with specific content 3.中信期货商品指数 2026 - 01 - 08 - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2,380.19, down 1.06%; the commodity 20 index was 2,717.76, down 1.00%; the industrial products index was 2,317.04, down 1.19% [54] - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On January 8, 2026, the index was 535.38, with a daily decline of 2.75%, a 5 - day increase of 5.04%, a one - month increase of 23.24%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.04% [56]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market's optimistic sentiment has cooled rapidly, leading to significant adjustments in base metals. In the short - to - medium term, the real demand is weak, but the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. Opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, and tin can be continued to be monitored. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin persist. The supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information Analysis**: The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized optimizing copper smelting capacity. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term contract processing fee was set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month and 7.5% year - on - year, with a cumulative increase of 11.38% from January to December. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will have a strike, and the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador has been postponed [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: The Fed's restart of interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion support copper prices. However, the short - term market sentiment has cooled. Copper supply disruptions continue to intensify, and the supply is expected to tighten. The smelting supply is expected to shrink, while the demand is weak in the short term but may tighten in the long term [8]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8]. Alumina - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends, with some remaining flat and some declining. The alumina warehouse receipts were 154,828 tons, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - **Main Logic**: The recent macro sentiment has magnified the price fluctuations. The high - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The inventory is still accumulating, and the cost support is average. The price is at the bottom and fluctuating, but the price volatility may increase [9]. - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand is in surplus, but the valuation is low. Alumina is expected to maintain a volatile trend [9]. Aluminum - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 140 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. Some enterprises launched the "aluminum - for - copper" standard implementation work, and Henan Hengkang Aluminum transferred its production capacity [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - outlook is positive. The domestic operating capacity and start - up rate are high, but the overseas supply has constraints. The high - level aluminum price has suppressed demand in the short term, and the inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term macro - outlook and supply - demand expectations support the price [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and the price center may rise in the medium term [11][12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the price of Baotai ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [13]. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is restricted by factors such as raw material shortage and profit inversion, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement in the short term and may improve marginally in the medium term. The inventory has a slight decline in the social inventory but an increase in the warehouse receipt inventory [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short and medium terms, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [13]. Zinc - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were different. As of January 8, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - outlook is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the refinery profit has declined. The domestic zinc ingot supply pressure is not large in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The zinc price may be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [15]. - **Outlook**: The zinc price is expected to be volatile [15][16]. Lead - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the warehouse receipts of Shanghai Lead increased. After the New Year's Day holiday, the upstream and downstream of the lead industry chain resumed trading, but the downstream was cautious in purchasing [17]. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium increased, and the supply decreased due to factors such as profit narrowing and environmental protection. The demand from the electric bicycle sector weakened, while that from the automotive battery sector improved, but the overall demand is in a downward trend [17]. - **Outlook**: The lead price is expected to be volatile [18]. Nickel - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts and LME nickel inventory increased. The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister did not disclose the specific nickel ore quota. The price of sulfur in some regions increased. Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel production quota to match the downstream demand [18][19]. - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure of nickel remains high, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in an oversupply situation. The Indonesian nickel ore quota is expected to be unstable, and the actual implementation needs to be monitored [20]. - **Outlook**: The nickel price is expected to be volatile, and the Indonesian policy changes need to be continuously tracked [20]. Stainless Steel - **Information Analysis**: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 was - 75 yuan/ton. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel production quota [21]. - **Main Logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported, but the terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level [21]. - **Outlook**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile, and the Indonesian policy changes need to be continuously tracked [22]. Tin - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the London tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased. The Shanghai tin positions decreased. The spot price of tin decreased [24]. - **Main Logic**: The tin supply is facing problems such as production restrictions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa. The supply is expected to tighten. The demand is expected to increase due to factors such as the semiconductor industry's high growth and the need for inventory reconstruction [24]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. Market Index Monitoring - On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased. The commodity 20 index was 2717.76, down 1.00%; the industrial products index was 2317.04, down 1.19%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2773.31, with a daily decline of 2.56%, a 5 - day increase of 3.25%, a 1 - month increase of 9.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.25% [151][152][154].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2) Core Views of the Report - On January 8, 2026, due to factors such as profit - taking, a slight strengthening of the US dollar, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's adjustment of silver - related trading rules, the precious metals sector declined, with platinum and palladium prices under pressure. The GFEX platinum main contract closed at 575 yuan/gram, down 6.72%, and the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 460.7 yuan/gram, down 3.57% [2]. - The overall outlook for platinum and palladium prices is to fluctuate strongly, but short - term price volatility has intensified, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and consider low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments [3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: Affected by profit - taking and a slight strengthening of the US dollar, the precious metals sector declined, and platinum was under pressure. Geopolitical risks may further intensify price fluctuations. As of January 8, the premium between the domestic closing time of the GFEX platinum main contract and NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 18.5 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference has significantly converged. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as an important growth point, expanding demand in jewelry and investment, and the "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify the long - term price elasticity [3]. - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Short - term prices may continue to have wide - range fluctuations. Investors are advised to trade cautiously and can pay attention to low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [3]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: The Russian geopolitical issue is a key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. On the demand side, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, short - term spot shortages keep prices firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate - cut cycle provides some support for the bottom of palladium prices [4]. - **Outlook**: With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, palladium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, in the short term, price fluctuations have intensified, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and can pay attention to low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments [4]. Commodity Index - On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index of the中信期货 commodity index was 2380.19, down 1.06%; the commodity 20 index was 2717.76, down 1.00%; the industrial products index was 2317.04, down 1.19% [48]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 8, 2026, had a daily decline of 2.56%, a 5 - day increase of 3.25%, a 1 - month increase of 9.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.25% [50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-09 指数基⾦调仓带来原油买盘，能化延续 震荡整理 国际原油期货延续震荡整理态势，委内瑞拉原油业的发展被提上日 程；美国能源部长在与高管会谈后表示，康菲石油、埃克森美孚及其他美 国石油公司正在研究如何在振兴委内瑞拉能源工业中发挥作用。彭博大宗 商品指数(BCOM)年度再平衡正式于1月8日启动，将持续至1月14日，此次 调仓遵循'卖出赢家、买入输家'的原则，Brent原油权重上调带动原油 板块获显著被动买盘，有色金属则面临集体减持压力。EIA报告显示，上 周美国成品油库存大幅增加，石油总库存增加，对油价形成压制。 板块逻辑： 宏观主导了近期化工市场的反弹，股市和热门商品的调整也引发了化 工的集体走弱。芳烃链整体延续震荡态势，PTA产业链而言，芳烃原料开 工持稳，聚酯开工延续在90.8%的高位，终端织造开工延续季节性下行态 势，产业链较平淡。苯乙烯开工也周度持稳，下游EPS开工率周度小幅提 升。芳烃产业链仍将震荡。PP周度开工下滑，PE开工则略增，PE的贸易商 和下游工厂补库增多是近期价格反弹的主要原因，产业整体变化较 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metals continued to correct for the second day, with silver experiencing a more significant decline. The previous overheated market cooled down due to factors such as profit - taking by funds, commodity index rebalancing, and increased exchange supervision. Gold is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation with limited downside space, while silver has greater short - term volatility risks [1]. - The US economic data has been weakening. The December PMI weakened, and the number of job openings in November dropped to a 14 - month low. The non - farm payroll data to be released this Friday is a crucial variable [1]. - In the long - term, the shrinking of the US dollar credit supports the upward trend of gold and silver prices. The expected economic cycle shift to a mild recovery gives silver greater upward elasticity [4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Key Information - In October, the US wholesale sales monthly rate slowed down, and the import volume decreased. The number of Challenger job cuts in December was the lowest since July 2024 [2]. - In November, the Eurozone PPI monthly rate exceeded expectations and the previous value, and the unemployment rate was better than expected and the previous value. In December, consumer confidence and industrial sentiment improved, while economic sentiment weakened [2]. - On January 8th, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the deployment of Western troops and military facilities in Ukraine would be regarded as an intervention threatening security, and they would be considered legitimate combat targets [2]. - On January 8th, Trump announced that he would request Congress to allocate $1.5 trillion for the military budget in the 2027 fiscal year, a more than 50% increase from this year [3]. 3.2 Price Logic - **Gold**: The intraday price declined again. The main reason was the short - term selling pressure caused by the commodity index rebalancing from January 9 - 15, during which the gold allocation ratio would be reduced from 20% to 14.9%. However, factors such as continuous central bank gold purchases, geopolitical tensions, and bets on Fed rate cuts continued to provide support. In the short - term, four factors should be focused on, and in the quarter from the nomination to the assumption of office of the Fed chairman, gold is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend [4][8]. - **Silver**: The intraday price continued to decline significantly. It was suppressed by multiple factors such as the selling of silver futures due to commodity index rebalancing, increased supervision by domestic and foreign exchanges, and the cooling of speculative sentiment. The short - term volatility risk of silver should be vigilant, and the silver rental rate has fallen from a high level, alleviating the squeeze risk [8]. 3.3 Commodity Index - On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined, with decreases of 1.06%, 1.00%, and 1.19% respectively [50]. - The precious metal index on January 8, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.39%, a 5 - day increase of 3.94%, a 1 - month increase of 13.71%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.94% [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report Core Views - Based on the increasing domestic policy expectations, it is recommended to emphasize the offensiveness of portfolio allocation under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Long - term over - allocation of stock index and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin) is recommended. Precious metals should be standard - allocated in the short term and over - allocated at low prices after volatility stabilizes. The bond market can focus on the bull - steepening opportunity under the easing expectation, but the odds are limited, and it is generally recommended to maintain a standard allocation. Non - ferrous metals perform relatively well under macro and industrial support, black commodities return to a weakening range after the rebound driven by winter storage, and crude oil is generally range - bound and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6] Summary by Directory Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: Double - factor boost to the market, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key point to watch is the situation of incremental funds [7] - **Stock Index Options**: Use options for covered call writing to increase returns. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on options market liquidity [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Long - term sentiment remains weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policy [7] Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of loose liquidity is clear, and the structural shortage of silver spot persists. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts [7] Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The near - month shipments before the Spring Festival provide support, and the far - month focuses on the risk of resuming flights. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the shipping companies' resumption plans in 2026, the freight rates of long - term contracts at the end of the year, and the support of the shippers' pre - Spring Festival shipments to the freight rates [7] Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Supported by cost and sentiment, the futures price shows a strong performance. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [7] - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices have risen significantly, but port transactions have weakened. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, port inventory changes, and policy - level actions [7] - **Coke**: The futures price has risen sharply, boosting market sentiment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7] - **Coking Coal**: The daily trading limit was reached, and the auction was slightly better. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The follow - up of transactions is still insufficient, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of manufacturers. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on raw material costs and steel procurement [7] - **Manganese Silicon**: It follows the strong trend of the sector, but be cautious about chasing the rise due to loose supply - demand. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are cost prices and overseas quotes [7] - **Glass**: The futures price has rebounded significantly, showing a positive feedback between futures and spot. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on spot sales [7] - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals have limited changes, and sentiment drives valuation repair. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key point to watch is soda ash inventory [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices are in a high - level volatile range. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovish stance of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [7] - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected ore resumption, more - than - expected electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends [7] - **Aluminum**: The Mozal aluminum plant faces shutdown, and aluminum prices are in a high - level volatile range. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [7] - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [7] - **Lead**: The downstream's willingness to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are supply - side disruptions and slowdown of battery exports [7] - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel ore, leading to a rebound in nickel prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [7] - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [7] - **Tin**: The downstream's rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are in a slightly strong volatile range. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are the expectations of Wa State's resumption and demand improvement [7] - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices have rebounded. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected supply resumption and policy changes [7] - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state reserve purchase continues to ferment, and polysilicon prices remain highly volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected supply resumption and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [7] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory destocking slows down, and lithium prices are under pressure in a volatile range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices remain range - bound. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the OPEC+ production policy and geopolitical situations [9] - **LPG**: The strong reality may weaken, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [9] - **Asphalt**: The US is dealing with the sanctioned Venezuelan crude oil, and asphalt futures prices are volatile. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, and the key point to watch is sanctions and supply disruptions [9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The situation in Venezuela is under control, and fuel oil futures prices decline. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [9] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are in a volatile downward trend. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key point to watch is crude oil prices [9] - **Methanol**: Coastal inventory accumulation slows down, and methanol is expected to be stable and slightly strong under the expectation of destocking. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are macro - energy factors and overseas actual shutdown dynamics [9] - **Urea**: New orders drive the price close to the resistance level, and urea is considered in a volatile range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the coal market and the progress of commercial reserves [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The general rise in the coal - chemical sector boosts the atmosphere, but the increase is limited due to fundamental pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the fluctuations of coal and oil prices and the port inventory rhythm [9] - **PX**: The sector sentiment is positive, and downstream demand still provides support, maintaining a range - bound consolidation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - level abnormalities, and disturbances in refining and chemical plants [9] - **PTA**: Cost guidance is limited, but the enthusiastic sentiment of chemical products supports the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - level abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [9] - **Short - Fiber**: Cost provides some support, but demand sustainability is insufficient, and profits are under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn factories and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [9] - **Bottle Chips**: More device maintenance in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and sea - freight rates [9] - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic macro - factors [9] - **PP**: The coal price indirectly boosts, but the basis support is limited, and the upside space is cautious. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and international macro - factors [9] - **Plastic**: The basis is weak, and the upside space is cautious. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and international macro - factors [9] - **Styrene**: Driven by exports and positive commodity sentiment, styrene is in a relatively strong volatile range recently. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9] - **PVC**: Supply disruptions occur frequently, and be cautiously optimistic. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are expectations, costs, and supply [9] - **Caustic Soda**: The market sentiment is positive, driving the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are market sentiment, operation, and demand [9] - **Oils and Fats**: Supply - side news disturbs, and the trends of oils and fats are slightly different. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9] - **Protein Meal**: The market trading is hot, and the two types of meal continue to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are customs policies, South American weather, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [9] - **Corn/Starch**: The rotation of corn reserves is sold at a premium, and the futures price strengthens again. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are demand, macro - factors, and weather [9] - **Pigs**: The rotation of pork reserves leads to a narrow - range volatile pig price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9] Agriculture - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices maintain an upward trend. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upward logic remains unchanged, and the futures price is strong. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key point to watch is significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [9] - **Cotton**: The position continues to increase, and the price rises. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are production and demand [9] - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are volatile, and there is still pressure in the future. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the key points to watch are imports and Northern Hemisphere production [9] - **Pulp**: After rising, it falls back, and pulp prices continue to be volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [9] - **Offset Paper**: The fundamentals change little, and the futures price is in a high - level volatile range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operation dynamics [9] - **Logs**: The market warms up, and logs follow the strong trend of the black sector. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are shipment and dispatch volumes [9]