1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to experience weak and volatile trends, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics presenting a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - In December, the rebound space of the industry is expected to be limited under the weak fundamental outlook, and special attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - **Geopolitical Factors**: The situation in the Caribbean region remains tense. After the reduction of Russian oil output, the marginal positive impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has diminished. The OPEC+ production policy is set until the first quarter of next year, with limited short - term disturbances. The global crude oil inventory has been rising since the fourth quarter, and the situation of supply surplus is difficult to change [7]. - **Chemical Industry**: The chemical industry as a whole continues to fluctuate and consolidate. Most liquid chemicals have accumulated inventory this week. The reduction of disproportionation load will help reduce the supply of pure benzene [3]. 3.2 Variety Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and supply pressure persists. The weak fundamental situation in December limits the rebound space, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [4][7]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt profits continue to be compressed. The supply and demand are both weak, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is high [4][8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price of high - sulfur fuel oil shows a weak and volatile trend. The three major drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak, and the demand is relatively weak [4][8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil shows a weak and volatile trend. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy and high - sulfur fuel, but its current valuation is low and it follows the movement of crude oil [4][10]. - **Methanol**: The unloading at coastal areas fails to meet expectations, and the supply - demand situation in the inland provides phased support, so the upward trend of methanol continues [4]. - **Urea**: The progress of off - season storage slows down, and the futures market fluctuates and consolidates [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The rebound height is limited under the pressure of supply and demand, and the price fluctuates widely [4]. - **PX**: The market anticipates a shortage of raw materials in the second quarter in advance, and short - term benefits remain strong [4]. - **PTA**: Supported by strong upstream costs and an improved supply - demand pattern, the price rises synchronously [4]. - **Short Fibers**: Downstream customers make moderate replenishments in stages, but the willingness to continuously chase price increases is not strong [4]. - **Bottle Chips**: The support from the cost side strengthens, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants [4]. - **Propylene**: Driven by PG, PL fluctuates and rebounds [4]. - **PP**: Driven by propane but with limited fundamental support, attention should be paid to changes in maintenance [4]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and the price fluctuates [4]. - **Styrene**: The inventory reduction continues in December, and market sentiment improves [4]. - **PVC**: There is a game between long and short positions, and PVC shows a weak rebound [4]. - **Caustic Soda**: The marginal cost decreases, and caustic soda fluctuates weakly [4]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [31]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, changes in basis, and the number of warehouse receipts for different varieties including asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The report presents the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads for different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the supply - demand tightness persists. It continues to lead the trend of new energy metals. In the short - term, after the negative impact on investor sentiment, the price stops falling and rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus is expected to narrow, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the silicon price fluctuates in a range. The supply is affected by the dry season in the southwest and potential environmental protection and power - limit factors in the north, while the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening [6]. - The policy expectation for polysilicon is rising again, and the price fluctuates at a high level. The supply is shrinking due to the dry season, and the "anti - involution" policy is expected to have an impact. The demand is weakening in November [7][9]. - The supply - demand gap of lithium carbonate is slightly improved, and the lithium price fluctuates at a high level. The supply is expected to remain strong, the demand is better than in previous years, and the inventory is being depleted. The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: The spot price is stable, the inventory is under pressure to accumulate, the production in November decreased, the export in October decreased, the photovoltaic new - installed capacity in October increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the organic silicon industry may enter a production - cut and price - support stage [6]. - **Main Logic**: The supply in the southwest is expected to decline slightly in December, and the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening. The inventory is high, and attention should be paid to the progress of new warehouse receipt registration [6]. - **Outlook**: If the organic silicon industry cuts production, the demand will further weaken, and the inventory - accumulation pressure may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate [6][7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The transaction price of N - type re - feeding materials is stable, the warehouse receipt quantity has increased slightly, the export and import volumes have decreased, the photovoltaic new - installed capacity from January to October increased year - on - year, and the industry association is promoting "anti - involution" work [7]. - **Main Logic**: The policy expectation is rising, the warehouse receipt quantity is low, providing support for near - month contracts. The supply is shrinking in the dry season, and the demand is weakening in November. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [7][9]. - **Outlook**: The "anti - involution" policy can boost the price, but the actual demand is weak, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On December 1st, the closing price of the main contract increased, the total position increased, the spot price increased, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: The supply is expected to remain strong, the demand is better than in previous years, and the inventory is being depleted. The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, and the resumption of production of Jiaxiawo is a key factor [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, but the sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11]. 3.2 Market Monitoring The report only lists the sub - items of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate in the market monitoring section but does not provide specific content. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, and plate index of CITIC Futures show different degrees of increase. The comprehensive index includes the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.76%, 1.09%, 0.74%, and 1.26% respectively. The new energy commodity index has a daily increase of 0.91%, a 5 - day increase of 1.94%, a 1 - month increase of 7.96%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.19% [53][54].

中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-02 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 宏观情绪偏暖，板块表现偏强 钢⼚供给端存在扰动，河北唐⼭因违规上⻢钢铁项⽬和新增产能被中 央⽣态环境保护督察组点名，⼤⽓污染防治存在明显短板，但实际对 北⽅钢⼚⽣产影响有限。12⽉中央经济⼯作会议即将召开，海外仍 有降息预期，宏观环境偏暖，钢材盘⾯表现偏强。铁矿在⾼铁⽔及冬 储补库预期下仍有较强⽀撑，煤焦在交割影响弱化之后低位反弹。 钢厂供给端存在扰动，河北唐山因违规上马钢铁项目和新增产能被中 央生态环境保护督察组点名，大气污染防治存在明显短板，但实际对 北方钢厂生产影响有限。12月中央经济工作会议即将召开，海外仍有 降息预期，宏观环境偏暖，钢材盘面表现偏强。铁矿在高铁水及冬储 补库预期下仍有较强支撑，煤焦在交割影响弱化之后低位反弹。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水环比下降，钢厂盈利率进一步压缩，后续仍有 部分钢厂安排高炉检修计划，铁水预计延续走弱态势，刚需支撑逐渐 弱化。海外矿山发运环比小幅回升，澳洲发运减少，巴西发运环比大 幅增加，非主流发运略降，本期到港环比减量，港口库存环比继续累 积，全国钢厂进口矿库存下滑， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-2 逆工业品走势下跌，天胶维持区间震荡 油脂：昨日震荡分化，关注马棕产需情况 蛋白粕：现货挺价盘面震荡，豆粕基差小幅走高 玉米/淀粉：东北持续走强，华北压力初显 生猪：出栏压力依旧，价格低位震荡 天然橡胶：逆工业品走势下跌，天胶维持区间震荡 合成橡胶：驱动不强，维持跟随震荡 棉花：套保压力制约短期上方高度 白糖：糖价低位震荡 纸浆：期货表现依旧疲弱，但纸浆低位存在支撑 双胶纸：12月提货仍有支撑，双胶纸窄幅震荡 原木：基本面矛盾不大，原木进入低估值区间 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 天然橡胶观点：逆工业品走势下跌，天胶维持区间震荡 逻辑：天胶受泰国洪水减弱、产出放量压力依旧、国内港口累库、以及日 胶走势偏弱影响，昨日价格逆工业品走势下跌。天胶近期维持窄幅震荡格 局，上周先是泰南产区洪水消息发酵，但盘面并没有给出相应的反应，反 倒是在累库、NR新增交割替代品以及EUDR确认再度延期等偏利空消息的影 响下震荡下行，但同时又受下游采购积极性，以及本身估值相对偏低的支 撑，幅度也是非常有限。而 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 1st, equity index futures and CGB futures rallied; most commodities advanced, with metals leading the gains while agricultural products remained weak [2][9][12]. - Gold re - entered the uptrend, and silver's short squeeze boosted upside, unlikely to ease soon. Poly - Silicon prices trended higher, but its fundamentals remained weak [16][17][24]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On December 1st, equity index futures and CGB futures rallied; most commodities advanced, with metals leading the gains while agricultural products remained weak. China's financial futures: IH rose by 0.76%, IM rose by 1.08%, TL fell by 0.08%. In commodity futures, silver, platinum, and polysilicon topped the gainers, while egg futures, glass futures, and alumina led the decliners [9][10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Gold & Silver - On December 1st, Gold rose 1.3% to 963.28 yuan/g, Silver rose 5.9% to 13278 yuan/kg. Gold re - entered the uptrend as the market became desensitized to Fed's possible actions in December, and the reshuffle of the Fed chair may open long - term rate cut expectations. Silver's short squeeze boosted upside, and it's unlikely to ease soon due to tight overseas spot supply and year - end delivery peak [15][16][17]. 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - On December 1st, Poly - Silicon rose 3.3% to 57705 yuan/ton. Recent policy expectations picked up, but its fundamentals remained weak. Southwest China entered the dry season, reducing supply. Demand was also weak, and inventory remained high. Overall, 11 - 12 saw a decline in both supply and demand, with supply dropping more sharply, expecting a slight surplus or tight balance by year - end [23][24][25]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - French President Emmanuel Macron will pay a state visit to China from December 3rd to 5th. Chinese citizens can enter Russia visa - free for tourism and business purposes until September 14, 2026, with a maximum stay of 30 days [27]. 2.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China convened the Meeting of the Coordination Mechanism for Cracking Down on Virtual Currency Trading and Speculation on November 28, 2025. Starting January 1, 2026, Shanghai Futures Exchange decided that futures company members, overseas special brokerage participants and overseas intermediaries shall not be subject to position limits. As of the end of October, the total assets under management of public funds had approached 37 trillion yuan, an increase of over 4 trillion yuan year - to - date [28].

期货有限公司 s Company I imited 政策预期升温与仓单集中注销,多晶硅波动加剧 12月1日，多晶硅明货价格快速回升，主力合约最高涨超-5%触及 50200元/吨，突破前期高点并再创阶段新高。近期多最猛价格走强主要受两方面因素驱动：一是随着 12月到宋，年末市场 对党给侧改革可能释放明确政策信号的预期升温；二是 11 月仓单集中注销后、交割仓单变动受到市场关注，广期所多品拒台单已快速降至 1330 手，市场担忧短期仓单注册进度偏慢，从而带动 近月合约出现显著拉涨。 基本面情况 从基本面来看，在光伏终端装机承压的背景下，多晶硅酸体延续弱势，供需呈现"双弱"格局。供给端，11月西南枯水期，水电成本上升导致当地多晶硅产能持续成产。SMM数据显示，11月多 晶高产量11.5万吨，环比-14.5％，同比·2.7％；1-11月多磊硅累计生产119万吨，同比-28.1％。随着枯水锅减产继续链接，12月多晶硅热应预计处于10-11万吨区间，阶段性供给压力有所缓和。 需求端受到新能源电价上网市场化双草的影响，光伏装机收益承压，虽加年末下游戏产进入淡季，需求进一步减弱。电池片和组织排产自10月起持续回落，硅片生产当 ...

期货有限公司 s Company I imited 12月1日，多晶硅明货价格快速回升，主力合约最高涨超-5%触及 50200元/吨，突破前期高点并再创阶段新高。近期多最猛价格走强主要受两方面因素驱动：一是随着 12月到宋，年末市场 对党给侧改革可能释放明确政策信号的预期升温；二是 11 月仓单集中注销后、交割仓单变动受到市场关注，广期所多品拒台单已快速降至 1330 手，市场担忧短期仓单注册进度偏慢，从而带动 近月合约出现显著拉涨。 基本面情况 从基本面来看，在光伏终端装机承压的背景下，多晶硅酸体延续弱势，供需呈现"双弱"格局。供给端，11月西南枯水期，水电成本上升导致当地多晶硅产能持续成产。SMM数据显示，11月多 晶高产量11.5万吨，环比-14.5％，同比·2.7％；1-11月多磊硅累计生产119万吨，同比-28.1％。随着枯水锅减产继续链接，12月多晶硅热应预计处于10-11万吨区间，阶段性供给压力有所缓和。 需求端受到新能源电价上网市场化双草的影响，光伏装机收益承压，虽加年末下游戏产进入淡季，需求进一步减弱。电池片和组织排产自10月起持续回落，硅片生产当前也出现明显下降，SMM 数据11月硅卡产量 ...

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the week of November 30, both global crude oil onshore and floating storage inventories increased slightly. The full - caliber (including in - transit) inventory declined from a high level, and the inventory pressure remained high year - on - year. Regionally, inventories in Europe and Russia decreased slightly, while those in China, India, and the Middle East increased [1] Regional Inventory Changes - Europe and Russia's crude oil inventories decreased slightly [1] - China, India, and the Middle East's crude oil inventories increased [1]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have recently surged, with LME copper breaking through USD 11,000 per tonne and SHFE copper approaching RMB 90,000 per tonne, surpassing historical highs. The rise is likely due to expectations of continued supply - side contraction as CSPT members will reduce copper ore production capacity by over 10% in 2026 [4][5]. - With increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts, the return of liquidity is favorable for copper prices. Also, as the Fed chair transition approaches, the US dollar index may be relatively weak, supporting copper prices [6][9]. - On the supply side, copper mine supply disturbances are increasing, TC remains low, and scrap - copper recycling cost and difficulty are rising. Supply has already started to contract, with copper output falling by over 50k tonnes in September and continuing to decline in October [7]. - On the demand side, although terminal demand for copper is weak in the off - season, spot premiums are positive, and Chile's state - owned copper company is raising the refined copper annual premium to Chinese customers, indicating expected tighter supply - demand for refined copper next year [8]. - It is anticipated that under the backdrop of a weak US dollar and significant supply - side constraints, the center of gravity for copper prices will shift further upward, and investors are advised to continue monitoring long positions in copper [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Event Review - Copper prices have reached new historical highs. The trigger is the expectation of supply - side contraction as CSPT members will cut copper ore production capacity by more than 10% in 2026 due to low spot processing fees for copper concentrate and upcoming 2026 long - term processing fee negotiations [4][5]. Market Outlook - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: Expectations for Fed rate cuts are rising, and as the Fed chair transition nears, concerns about the Fed's independence may keep the US dollar index weak, which is favorable for copper prices [6][9]. - **Supply Aspect**: Copper mine supply disturbances are increasing, with the Grasberg mine's production cut exacerbating the tightness. Low TC and the risk of further decline triggered CSPT's joint production cut. The cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have increased, leading to production cuts at some scrap - copper smelters since Q3, and copper output has declined in September and October [7]. - **Demand Aspect**: Terminal demand for copper is weak in the off - season, but spot premiums are positive, showing increasing downstream acceptance of higher copper prices. Chile's state - owned copper company is raising the annual premium for refined copper to Chinese customers, reflecting expected tighter supply - demand next year [8]. - **Overall Outlook**: With a weak US dollar and strong supply - side contraction expectations, the center of gravity for copper prices is expected to move further upward, and investors are advised to monitor long positions in copper [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various commodities and markets, with most commodities expected to show an oscillatory trend, and some showing a tendency of oscillating strongly or weakly. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy environments, and geopolitical events [3]. Summary by Category Financial - **Stock Index**: In a market with shrinking volume, potential lifting of the ban on share sales and reduction pressure, and a policy window period, funds are congested and waiting to be released. A dumbbell - shaped strategy of looking at the long - term and trading in the short - term is recommended, with an oscillatory trend [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank conducts treasury bond trading, and subsequent aggregate monetary policy tools may be further implemented. In the fourth quarter, the allocation demand of institutional investors may increase seasonally, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly. Currently, opportunities for curve steepening and positive spreads are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Attention should be paid to the release of US PMI and ADP employment data this week. The price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4000, 4400], and that of London silver in the range of [53, 60], showing an oscillatory trend [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Supply constraints persist, and supply - disturbing factors are increasing, so the copper price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, the macro - sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are stable, so the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly. In the medium - term, the marginal increase in supply is limited, and demand has certain resilience, so the price center is expected to rise [3]. - **Alumina**: The current supply - demand is in excess, but the valuation is in a low - level range, so it is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Zinc**: Recently, the inventory of LME zinc has increased significantly, but the "short squeeze" has not eased significantly. Entering the off - season of consumption, downstream demand for zinc ingots is weakening, and supply remains high. However, the export window for domestic zinc ingots has opened, and domestic inventory is decreasing. The zinc price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Tin**: With the current tightness in the ore end, the bottom support for the tin price is strong, so it is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Lead**: Currently at the end of the traditional peak consumption season, but the replacement of old cars and electric bicycles is still ongoing. The orders for lead - acid batteries have improved, and the procurement demand for lead - zinc is expected to remain high. Recently, many primary and secondary lead smelters have carried out maintenance, and lead ingot production has declined. The lead price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Nickel**: The current supply - demand is loose, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, it depends on the official announcement of next year's nickel ore quota in Indonesia, which may decrease, so there is uncertainty in supply, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: Due to the suppression of the price by the fundamentals during the seasonal off - season transition, but considering the long - term suppression of industry profits and the support from the ore end, the price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and cost changes [3]. New Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, with medium - term looseness and short - term shortages coexisting. The price is expected to oscillate widely [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The anti - involution policy has significantly boosted the polysilicon price, but the demand is also weakening. The price is expected to oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to whether there are substantial policy signals at the end of the year and the process of new warrant registration [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: If the silicone industry cuts production, the demand for industrial silicon will further weaken, and the inventory pressure may increase again. However, the short - term market sentiment is volatile. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the progress of new warrant registration [3]. - **Cobalt**: The conflict in eastern Congo has escalated, and although it has not affected cobalt mining for the time being, the potential risks are expected to increase, so the cobalt price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Although the fundamentals of coking coal have slightly deteriorated, the current valuation of the futures market is too low, and the low - production state in China will continue. The downstream has strong expectations of replenishing inventory, and the spot price has bottom support. The near - month contract price is expected to oscillate, and the far - month contract is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals of coke are still healthy, and the price mainly follows the cost of coking coal. In the case of the continued weakening of raw material spot prices, the current round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but there are still expectations of winter inventory replenishment. The continuous implementation of multiple rounds of price cuts is less likely, and the futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - **Iron Ore**: There is still a seasonal decline expectation for molten iron output, the rigid demand support is gradually weakening, and the inventory replenishment demand has not been significantly released. After the previous price increase, there is insufficient support for further upward movement. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand side still has resilience, and inventory continues to decline, but the pressure of high - year - on - year inventory remains, and the fundamental contradiction has not been resolved. The Sino - US presidential call sent a positive signal, and the Central Economic Work Conference in December is approaching, and the macro - environment is still warm. The futures price has the driving force to rebound from a low level, but the upward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [3]. - **Rebar**: The fundamentals of rebar have continued to improve recently. The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. The Central Economic Work Conference in December is approaching, there are still expectations of overseas interest rate cuts, and the Sino - US presidential call sent a positive signal, and the macro - environment is warm. The futures price has the driving force to rebound from a low level. However, the inventory level of rebar is still high year - on - year, and as the off - season deepens, the demand expectation is still under pressure, and the fundamental highlights are limited. The upward space of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [3]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The firm cost supports the bottom of the silicon ferrosilicon price, but the market supply - demand is still loose, and the price increase is weak. The cost transfer to the downstream is difficult. The main - contract futures price is expected to operate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of raw material prices and settlement electricity prices [3]. - **Manganese Silicate**: The cost of manganese silicate still has support, but the market supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure on the price is large. The cost transfer to the downstream is difficult. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw material prices [3]. - **Glass**: In the short - term, the improvement in demand is obvious, and the fundamentals have improved, but the improvement is limited. Only when subsequent cold - repair is further implemented can the glass price continue to recover. Otherwise, the price may decline under the pressure of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. In the long - term, due to the increasingly strict environmental protection requirements, the supply side will face clearance and cost increase, and the far - month valuation may rebound [3]. - **Soda Ash**: In the short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals of soda ash have improved to some extent. If the production remains low after the mid - stream inventory reduction, there may be a short - term positive feedback, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, there will still be low - cost production capacity coming on - stream, and the supply - demand surplus will intensify. The price needs to continue to decline to suppress production [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: It is oscillating and waiting for the guidance of the OPEC+ meeting and geopolitical factors [3]. - **Natural Gas**: The European natural gas price is oscillating, and the US natural gas price may be strong in the short - term [3]. - **Steam Coal**: Attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side policies and the change in inventory replenishment rhythm. The medium - and long - term reasonable price range of 570 - 770 still has great reference value [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are both expected to oscillate and decline [3]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [3]. - **LPG**: Attention should be paid to whether the optimistic expectations for Saudi Arabia on December 8 can be fulfilled. Currently, the basis is continuously low, the pressure on refining margins is increasing, and the upward space of the spot price is expected to be relatively limited. The upward space of the futures price should not be overly optimistic. Attention should be paid to the generation of warrants [3]. Chemicals - **Benzene Ethylene**: The inventory accumulation pressure of pure benzene in December is still being realized, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [3]. - **PX**: In the short - term, it is greatly affected by sentiment and cost. The price is expected to operate in the range of [6650, 6950], and the PXN is expected to oscillate in the range of [250, 290] US dollars per ton [3]. - **PTA**: It is greatly affected by cost and market sentiment. In the short - term, it will oscillate following the cost, and the price will be sorted in the range of [4650, 4850]. The processing margin of the 01 contract can be operated in the range of [220, 300] yuan per ton [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate in the low - level range in the short - term, and the upward elasticity of the price is obviously pressured. The EG01 - 05 spread can be cautiously reverse - arbitraged at high levels, and the operation space is [-75, -100] [3]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price of short - fiber fluctuates with the raw material, and the processing margin will fluctuate between 950 - 1100 yuan per ton. A short - PF and long - TA position can be lightly established [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing margin has strong support at the short - term range bottom, but the upward pressure is also large. It is expected to operate in the range of [400, 550], and the absolute price of bottle chips will fluctuate with the raw material [3]. - **Methanol**: After the overseas fluctuation information is confirmed, the futures price quickly rebounded to fulfill the expectation. After the rebound this week, the upward momentum of the methanol futures price has weakened. Attention should be paid to whether the digestion trend of coastal inventory can continue, and it is expected to oscillate [3]. - **PP and PE**: The upward space is limited, and they should be regarded as range - bound. The change in maintenance is still the key point of observation [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The electricity price in December has decreased, and the cost of caustic soda has decreased by 80 yuan per ton, opening the downward space of the futures price. If the low - profit situation promotes upstream production cuts or the warrant logic before delivery intensifies, the futures price may stabilize [3]. - **PVC**: The 01 contract is facing position - taking games in the short - term and shows a small - scale rebound. In the long - term, if there are no positive factors such as upstream production cuts due to low profits, increased exports, or unexpected policies, the futures price may return to a weak trend [3]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, which is difficult to change. After the inspection of the December reserve progress, the short - term reserve push may return to the normal progress, and this demand support is relatively stable in the long - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the overall progress of off - season storage [3]. Agriculture Feed and Livestock - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. The import crushing margin has been repaired, and soybean procurement has accelerated. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is slowly decreasing seasonally, and downstream customers are placing orders at low - level futures prices, with increased spot trading volume and a rising basis. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunity of the M2605 contract after the contract roll [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly. Before the effective repair of downstream and mid - stream inventories, the price is likely to oscillate at a high level. It is necessary to wait for the release of upstream inventory and the alleviation of downstream supply tension [3]. - **Pig**: In the near - term, the pig price will continue to be weak, as the fourth - quarter pig production is still in the period of high - capacity realization, and the end - of - year pressure to sell large pigs is increasing. In the far - term, the Ministry of Agriculture is guiding enterprises to cut production, and the continuous loss of breeding profits is conducive to the reduction of production capacity in the fourth quarter. The far - month contract price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention should be paid to the reverse - arbitrage strategy opportunity [3]. Soft Commodities - **Apple**: Against the background of strong support for the spot price, combined with the expectations of Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking and possible weather speculation, the futures price is relatively firm, and the sentiment is optimistic. Attention can be paid to the low - long opportunity after a pull - back, and subsequent attention should be paid to the weather changes in the producing areas. The price is expected to oscillate strongly for the time being [3]. - **Rubber**: It is not the time for a trending market, and the current price is closer to the upper pressure level. In terms of arbitrage, the RU - MR spread reached a phased high last week, and one can choose to exit and wait and see [3]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate in a range; in the long - term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. It is advisable to go long at a low price [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures market is mainly about the game of warrants, and the paper pulp futures price is expected to oscillate widely [3]. - **Sugar**: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Since the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the new crushing season, the sugar price has a downward driving force. The operation strategy is to go short on rallies [3]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to oscillate [3].