Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown marginal improvement. It is expected that the overall supply and demand in February will still tend to be loose, and the overall visible inventory will remain at a high level, putting pressure on prices. However, the Indonesian government's downward revision of the 2026 nickel ore quota and the proposed revision of the domestic nickel ore pricing method have significantly adjusted the market's expectations of nickel cost and balance, providing some support for nickel prices. [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On February 11, 2026, affected by the news that Indonesia approved a nickel ore quota of about 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, the Shanghai nickel futures price once soared by over 4.4% to 139,940 tons. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) announced the 2026 work plan and cost budget (RKAB), with the approved nickel ore production quota between 2.6 and 2.7 billion tons. Considering that 2026 is a period of concentrated release of new capacity in Indonesia's hydrometallurgical process (HPAL), the theoretical demand for domestic nickel ore in Indonesia in 2026 is expected to be about 15% higher than the currently approved quota, creating a significant tightening expectation in the market. [2] Fundamental Situation - On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel production rebounded again in January, and the overall production of nickel matte and nickel ice in Indonesia remained high in January, so the supply - side pressure still exists. On the demand side, it is still in the traditional consumption off - season. The stainless - steel production in January increased slightly month - on - month due to profit repair, but is expected to decline significantly in February due to the Spring Festival holiday. The terminal demand remains relatively cautious, and the overall fundamentals remain in a state of surplus. In terms of inventory, according to Wind data, the LME inventory increased by 678 tons to 285,750 tons, and the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 318 tons to 52,039 tons, with the global overall visible inventory still at a high level. [3] Summary and Strategy - Currently, the Indonesian policies strongly support nickel prices, but the high visible inventory may limit the upward space to some extent. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously and lightly before the holiday, continue to pay attention to opportunities for buying at low prices in the medium term, and continuously follow the progress of relevant Indonesian policies. [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown marginal improvement. It is expected that the overall supply and demand in February will still be loose, and the overall visible inventory will remain at a high level, which will put some pressure on prices. At the same time, the Indonesian government's reduction of the 2026 nickel ore quota and the proposed revision of the domestic nickel ore pricing method have significantly adjusted the market's expectations of nickel cost and balance, providing some support for nickel prices. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Directory Latest Dynamics and Reasons On February 11, 2026, affected by the news that Indonesia approved a nickel ore quota of about 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, the Shanghai nickel price once soared by more than 4.4% to 139,940 tons. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) released the 2026 work plan and cost budget (RKAB), and the Director - General of Minerals and Coal of the ESDM, Tri Winarno, revealed that the approved nickel ore production quota is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons. Considering that 2026 is still a period of concentrated release of new capacity of high - pressure acid leaching (HPAL) in Indonesia, to maintain the reasonable operating rate of existing and under - construction projects, it is expected that the theoretical demand for nickel ore in Indonesia in 2026 will be about 15% higher than the currently approved quota of 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, forming a significant tightening expectation in the market. [2] Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic nickel production increased again in January. At the same time, the production of nickel matte and nickel ice in Indonesia in January remained at a high level overall, and the pressure on the supply side still exists. [3] - **Demand**: It is still in the traditional consumption off - season. The stainless steel production in January increased slightly month - on - month due to profit repair, but it is expected to decline significantly in February due to the Spring Festival holiday. The terminal demand remains relatively cautious, and the overall fundamentals remain in surplus. [3] - **Inventory**: According to Wind data, the LME inventory increased by 678 tons to 285,750 tons yesterday, and the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 318 tons to 52,039 tons. The global overall visible inventory is still at a high level. [3] Summary and Strategy The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved. It is expected that the supply and demand in February will be loose, and the visible inventory will remain high, suppressing prices. The Indonesian policy has strongly supported the nickel price, but the high visible inventory may limit the upward space to some extent. It is recommended to hold positions lightly and cautiously before the festival, and continue to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices in the medium term. Also, continue to pay attention to the progress of relevant Indonesian policies. [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are still tight, with the price rising sharply during intraday trading. The price increase is mainly due to the strong supply - demand fundamentals, the expectation of a continued tight - balance situation after the holiday, and the pre - layout of funds with improved sentiment [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents New Dynamics and Reasons - The price of lithium carbonate rose sharply during intraday trading today, with the main contract rising more than 5%. The reasons are strong supply - demand fundamentals, the expected continuation of the tight - balance situation after the holiday, and pre - layout by funds [2]. Fundamental Situation - Currently, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong despite marginal weakening, and the impact of macro sentiment has decreased. In January - February, both supply and demand sides face production suspension for maintenance by some enterprises, maintaining a tight balance overall. Social inventory is expected to continue to decline, but supply and demand are weakening marginally. In January 2020, the new - energy vehicle wholesale volume of national passenger - car manufacturers was about 900,000, a year - on - year increase of 1%. On February 6, the inventory of available imported ore was 282,000 tons, an increase of 87,000 tons compared to a month ago. In March, the demand - side production schedule is expected to be good, and the supply side will see a significant increase in imports. Before downstream resumption of production, a tight - balance situation is expected to continue [3]. Summary and Strategy - Currently, the supply - demand of lithium carbonate is strong, social inventory is continuously decreasing, and the price has an upward driving force. However, due to high macro uncertainties during the Spring Festival, it is recommended to temporarily exit the market and participate cautiously [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ASEAN - 5 and India are in a stage of rapid development, and steel demand is highly concentrated in construction and infrastructure sectors. By 2030, their apparent steel consumption is expected to grow, with India having higher demand elasticity and greater incremental potential [2][3][121]. - The combined apparent steel consumption of the ASEAN - 5 and India may reach approximately 270 million tons in 2030, with a CAGR of about 5.8%, and an additional demand of approximately 116 million tons of iron ore. India is the main source of this increment [9][121]. - In a pessimistic scenario in 2026, China's steel demand will decline by about 10 million tons, while the ASEAN - 5 and India will drive an annual demand increment of about 14 million tons. The demand increment from emerging markets can offset the reduction in domestic demand in China, promoting the bottom - out and stabilization of ferrous metal prices [10][122][119]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Steel consumption in the ASEAN - 5 and India is highly concentrated in construction and infrastructure. Fluctuations in steel demand depend on infrastructure investment and urban construction. Per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and steel usage intensity can describe the development stage of each economy and have guiding significance for incremental projection [7]. - Each country has its own steel - demand characteristics. Malaysia and Thailand's steel - demand growth is stabilizing, Vietnam has high demand elasticity, Indonesia and the Philippines have an infrastructure - led demand structure, and India has prominent steel - demand growth potential [8][121]. 3.2 The Basic Situation of the ASEAN - 5 and India 3.2.1 Vietnam - In 2024, Vietnam's per capita GDP was approximately $4,717, and the urbanization rate was 40.2%, with manufacturing value - added accounting for about 23.4% of GDP. Its steel consumption in 2023 was about 21.17 million tons, with construction accounting for about 89%. Steel demand has medium - term elasticity and sustainability [12][13][124]. - Vietnam coordinates industrial upgrading and investment expansion by prioritizing manufacturing and infrastructure construction, such as the North - South high - speed railway and industrial park expansion [14][125]. 3.2.2 Malaysia - As of 2024, Malaysia's per capita GDP was approximately $11,867, and the urbanization rate was 80.12%, with manufacturing accounting for 24.1% of GDP. In 2023, its apparent steel consumption was about 6.7 million tons, with construction accounting for 63.2% [17][18][130]. - Malaysia uses "Ekonomi MADANI (2023)" as a reform framework and promotes infrastructure construction. The "New Industrial Master Plan 2030" focuses on advanced manufacturing [19][131]. 3.2.3 Thailand - By 2024, Thailand's per capita GDP was approximately $7,345, and the urbanization rate was 54.32%, with manufacturing added value accounting for about 24.3% of GDP. In 2023, its apparent steel consumption was about 16.08 million tons, with construction and infrastructure accounting for nearly 80% [22][23][134]. - Thailand uses the "20 - Year National Strategy 2018–2037" as a framework, promotes manufacturing transformation, and focuses on the construction of the Eastern Economic Corridor and the China - Thailand Railway [24][25][135]. 3.2.4 Indonesia - As of 2024, Indonesia's per capita GDP was approximately $4,925, and the urbanization rate was 59.2%, with manufacturing value - added accounting for about 19% of GDP. In 2023, its apparent steel consumption was about 176.5 million tons, with infrastructure and non - infrastructure buildings accounting for nearly 80% [30][31][138]. - Indonesia focuses on the construction of the new capital Nusantara and "Making Indonesia 4.0" to promote infrastructure investment and manufacturing transformation [32][139]. 3.2.5 Philippines - As of 2024, the Philippines' per capita GDP was approximately $3,985, and the urbanization rate was 48.6%, with manufacturing output accounting for about 15.7% of GDP. In 2023, its apparent steel consumption was about 9.45 million tons, with the construction sector accounting for 81% [39][40][143]. - The Philippines uses the "Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2023–2028" as a framework, promotes infrastructure construction, and takes infrastructure investment as the main line [41][144]. 3.2.6 India - As of 2024, India's per capita GDP was approximately $2,697, and the urbanization rate was 36.9%, with manufacturing added value accounting for about 12.6% of GDP. In 2023, its apparent steel consumption was about 133 million tons, with construction, infrastructure, and engineering/packaging accounting for the vast majority [46][47][147]. - India promotes manufacturing revitalization and infrastructure construction through policies such as "Make in India" and the "PM Gati Shakti National Infrastructure Construction Plan". In the Union Budget 2025–26, a large amount of capital is allocated to infrastructure [48][50][148]. 3.3 The Core Driver of Steel Demand - Steel consumption in the ASEAN and India is highly concentrated in construction and infrastructure, with a proportion of 55% - 90%. Steel demand mainly depends on construction and infrastructure investment [66][68][156]. - The relationship between steel intensity of use (I - U) and per capita GDP typically shows an inverted U - shaped pattern. Low - income countries have higher steel - usage intensity elasticity, and this elasticity converges as per capita GDP increases [70][71][158]. - Per capita GDP and urbanization rate are key exogenous variables for studying steel demand in the ASEAN and India. The urbanization process is an important driving mechanism for steel demand [76][164]. 3.4 Steel Demand Forecasting in Southeast Asia and India - A Three - Model Approach - The ASEAN - 5's development path is closer to South Korea and Taiwan, while India is more like mainland China. When the per capita GDP reaches around $12,000 - 20,000, the growth of steel demand slows down [77][79][165]. - The IMF predicts that the per capita GDP of the six countries will grow, with India's growth rate exceeding 9%. The UNCTAD predicts that the urbanization rate increase of the six countries is limited. The population growth rate of India, the Philippines, and Indonesia is relatively fast [89][92][93]. - Three complementary forecasting models are constructed: elastic net regression, per capita steel consumption regression, and historical path trend benchmarking. The final projection value is obtained by a dynamic weighted average of the three models [101][102][185]. - By 2030, the total steel consumption of the ASEAN - 5 and India is expected to increase from 203.9 million tons in 2023 to 269.8 million tons, with a CAGR of about 4.1%. India is the main source of demand growth, with an expected increase of about 51 million tons [111][113][191]. - The increase in steel demand will lead to an increase in iron ore demand. By 2030, the combined iron ore demand of the ASEAN - 5 and India is approximately 4.73 billion tons, an increase of over 116 million tons compared to 2023 [116][193]. - In 2026, China's steel demand may decline by about 10 million tons in a pessimistic scenario, while the ASEAN - 5 and India will drive an annual demand increment of about 14 million tons. The emerging - market demand can offset the decline in China's demand [10][119][195].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook is for the market to be volatile [3] Core Viewpoints - The spot market is still in a price - cut cycle, and the market has some doubts about the effect of the price increase letter in the off - season of March. New contracts EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 were listed today. The main contract EC2604 opened lower, with its decline widening at noon and falling more than 5% during the session. The trading volume rebounded to some extent. As of the close, the 04 contract increased its positions and closed at 1179 points, down 4.77%, and the current open interest rose to 34,000 lots [1] - The 05 and 07 contracts are stronger due to the peak - season attribute, while the 09 off - season contract shows differentiation. The main contract trades based on the pessimistic logic of the price - holding effect in March and returns to the 1170 - 1200 point range with amplified fluctuations. In the subsequent fundamentals, MSK opened the cabin at 1900 US dollars/FEU at the beginning of March. Attention should be paid to whether photovoltaic goods can drive the cargo volume to rebound in advance through short - term export rush pulses. After the festival, attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer and contract replacement brought by newly listed contracts [2] - The 05 contract closed at 1273 points on the first day of listing, with a premium of 94 points over the 04 contract and a discount of 226 points to the 06 contract. Considering the impact of US tariff increases on global trade in May 2025 and the possible subsequent position transfer and contract replacement, the reverse arbitrage logic of the 04 - 05 contracts can be considered [2] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - The main contract EC2604 opened lower, and its decline widened at noon, falling more than 5% during the session. The trading volume rebounded, and it closed at 1179 points, down 4.77%, with the current open interest rising to 34,000 lots. Some contracts fluctuated greatly, with the EC2607 contract rising more than 12% to close at 1731 points (the contract with the highest valuation on the market), and the EC2609 contract falling 22.99% to close at 1239.5 points [1] Spot Market Freight Rates - According to Jiyu Technology, the freight rate of MSK in the first week of March remained flat at 1900/2000 US dollars. The AE1 Shanghai - Rotterdam freight rate of NSK on March 6 was 1200/1900/2000 US dollars/TEU/FEU, remaining flat compared with February 26. The HPL - SPOT freight rate in February was 1835 US dollars/FEU, and in March it was at a high of 2935 US dollars/FEU. The low - price of 00CL in February was 2330 US dollars/FEU; CMA maintained at 2293 US dollars/FEU in February and 3393 US dollars/FEU in March. ONE maintained at 2035 US dollars/FEU in February and 2535 US dollars/FEU at the beginning of March; MSC maintained at 2140 US dollars/FEU in February [1] Geopolitical Situation - According to CCTV News, the US advised US merchant ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters. On February 9 local time, the US issued the latest guidelines to merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, advising US - flagged merchant ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters as much as possible and verbally refuse when requested to be boarded by the Iranian military [1] Macroeconomic Situation - According to Jinshi Data, the Sentix investor confidence index in the Eurozone in February was 4.2, expected to be 0, and the previous value was - 1.8. Germany rebounded unexpectedly, with its index rising from - 16.4 last month to - 6.9, reaching the highest level since July 2025 [2] Trading Logic - New contracts EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 were added today. The 05 and 07 contracts are stronger due to the peak - season attribute, while the 09 off - season contract shows differentiation. The main contract trades based on the pessimistic logic of the price - holding effect in March and returns to the 1170 - 1200 point range with amplified fluctuations. Attention should be paid to whether photovoltaic goods can drive the cargo volume to rebound in advance and the risk of position transfer and contract replacement [2] Contract Analysis - The 05 contract closed at 1273 points on the first day of listing, with a premium of 94 points over the 04 contract and a discount of 226 points to the 06 contract. Considering the impact of US tariff increases on global trade in May 2025 and the possible subsequent position transfer and contract replacement, the reverse arbitrage logic of the 04 - 05 contracts can be considered [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Alumina - On February 10, the domestic ore price was 491 yuan/ton, with a 0 yuan/ton change compared to the previous day; the Guinea imported ore price was 61 US dollars/dry ton, also with a 0 US dollars/dry ton change [1] - On February 10, the spot price index was 2,646 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the futures inventory was 251,010 tons, a net increase of 8,384 tons compared to the previous day [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On February 10, the spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 91 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the premium/discount was -190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the futures inventory was 166,516 tons, a net increase of 2,004 tons compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the aluminum rod processing fee was 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] Aluminum Alloy - On February 10, the price of raw aluminum was 17,250 yuan/ton, with a 0 yuan/ton change compared to the previous day; the price of cooked aluminum was 17,650 yuan/ton, also with a 0 yuan/ton change [1] - On February 10, the ADC12 price was 23,100 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the futures inventory was 67,300 tons, a net decrease of 1,235 tons compared to the previous day [1]

股指期货：盘⾯平淡 股指期权：买权防御为主 国债期货：窄幅震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指期货方面，盘面平淡。周二权益市场走势平淡，全A指数微涨， 传媒表现一枝独秀，食品、地产相对弱势。同时节前开始显现出交投情绪 下降的信号，其一，A股量能略超2万亿，近期换手水平在低位，第二，股 指期货持仓量连续第二日下降超万手，为规避假日波动，部分资金选择进 行降仓处理。同时观察到美元指数下跌及贵金属反弹趋势有所放缓，节前 A股大概率偏震荡状态，上方下方空间均有限。展望后市，两会之前的走 势值得关注，在流动性等负面因素缓和之后有望重回温和反弹走势，而在 两会节点之后，需关注潜在风险，近年两会之后A股表现相对一般。 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-11 情绪偏暖，⾛势偏震荡 股指期权方面，买权防御为主。昨日权益指数震荡整理。期权方面， 各个品种市场成交额再度回落。相较于前两周市场波动下的流动性升温， 本周期权交投量能相对平稳。结合隐含波动率的回落，推测目前市场情绪 偏暖。但考虑到节假日和行权日的临近，期权端建议买权防御为主。需要 说明的是，此时建议买权对冲并不意味着看空，而是对整体 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions continue to support oil prices, and the chemical industry remains in a sideways consolidation. It is advisable to hold light positions during the holiday. - The pre - Spring Festival oscillation pattern in the chemical industry is difficult to change in the short term. Higher - inventory varieties face greater pressure, and inventory pressure may rise again during the Spring Festival. - Coal prices are stabilizing, and crude oil and chemical prices will continue to oscillate and consolidate. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and risks remain high around the holiday. - **Main Logic**: After the US cold wave, the recovery of crude oil production has led to renewed inventory pressure. The current fundamentals of the crude oil market are not optimistic, with high inventory levels and pressured refinery margins. The market is trading on the theme of "weak reality, strong expectation", with geopolitical factors influencing supply expectations. Uncertainties in the US - Iran situation and potential impacts on Russian crude exports still support oil prices. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. [7] Asphalt - **View**: Asphalt futures prices oscillate at high levels. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran situation is complex, and the partial lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela will increase the long - term supply of asphalt raw materials. High profits may prompt refiners to switch to alternative raw materials. Current asphalt inventory is accumulating, and the market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The current asphalt price is over - valued compared to other products. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with the long - term valuation expected to decline. [8] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Fuel oil futures prices operate at high levels. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran situation is still under negotiation, and the increase in Venezuelan oil production is expected to put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Tensions in the Iran region have mixed effects on the short - term market. In the long run, the substitution of fuel oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaic will be a negative factor. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East in the short term. [9] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by crude oil and natural gas prices. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its current valuation is low. The export tax - rebate policy for low - sulfur fuel oil and the pressure of "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" will lead to an increase in supply and a decline in demand. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, following the movement of crude oil. [10] PX - **View**: The cost side still provides support, and PTA plant maintenance has been implemented. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices oscillate and consolidate, and PX oscillates slightly stronger. Although PTA plant maintenance provides some support, weak demand limits the increase in PX prices. The holiday atmosphere in the downstream market is strong, and spot trading volume is gradually decreasing. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX prices will oscillate under the guidance of sentiment. Pay attention to the support level of around 7100 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract, and PXN is expected to be in the range of [280, 300] US dollars/ton. [12] PTA - **View**: PTA plant maintenance has been implemented, alleviating the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost still provides short - term support, and the news of PTA plant maintenance boosts the futures price. However, polyester production has declined to a low level, and the spot market is quiet during the holiday. The PTA processing fee is expected to be significantly supported in the short term. - **Outlook**: PTA is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the strengthening support of the TA05 - 09 spread, and consider positive - spread positions. The support level of around 5100 yuan/ton for the TA05 contract is relatively strong. [13] Pure Benzene - **View**: The price oscillates, mainly affected by crude oil prices and capital sentiment. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran situation is unclear, leading to repeated geopolitical premiums. The correction of non - ferrous metals and precious metals has dragged down the commodity market sentiment. In the medium term, the fundamentals of pure benzene may be in a transition period, with less inventory accumulation in Q1 compared to Q4, but there are significant differences in market expectations for Q2. In the short term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in East China ports, and some profit - taking may cause price fluctuations. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Although the fundamentals in Q1 have improved compared to Q4, inventory pressure remains high. [15] Styrene - **View**: Overseas and domestic plant restarts have led to a marginal loosening of supply and demand. - **Main Logic**: The upward momentum of styrene has weakened. Crude oil prices are at the upper end of the range, and geopolitical premiums have been fully priced in. The supply and demand of styrene have become more relaxed due to plant restarts, and downstream acceptance is weak. Although there are some export orders, the overseas supply is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The height of seasonal inventory accumulation in February has been reduced, but the improvement in the overseas supply - demand situation has weakened the support. [18] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The import volume in the second quarter has been revised downwards, and there is a weak expectation of supply - demand repair. The price has limited downside. - **Main Logic**: The price is in a narrow - range consolidation at a low level. There is still seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, but the medium - term structure is expected to improve. Due to the planned maintenance and postponed restarts of overseas plants in March - April, the import volume in the second quarter is expected to decline, providing some support for the price. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price will be in the range of [3700, 4050] yuan/ton. Pay attention to the operation in the range of [- 120, - 85] yuan/ton for the EG05 - 09 spread. [20] Short - Fiber - **View**: Both supply and demand decline, and trading is light. - **Main Logic**: The prices of upstream polyester raw materials oscillate and rise, providing some cost support. However, the operating rate of polyester short - fiber has dropped significantly to a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and downstream demand has entered the holiday mode, resulting in less trading. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will follow the movement of upstream products, and the support for the processing fee will be strengthened. [24] Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: Volatility narrows, and the trading atmosphere weakens. - **Main Logic**: The prices of upstream polyester raw materials rise slightly, and polyester bottle chips follow the increase. The price has been in a narrow - range consolidation recently, with small fluctuations and a slightly weaker trading atmosphere. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will follow the movement of raw materials, and the support for the processing fee will be strengthened. Consider the position of going long PR and short TA. [26] Methanol - **View**: Coastal trading has paused before the holiday, and inventory reduction in the inland is coming to an end. Methanol oscillates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The price of methanol oscillates and consolidates. The inland market shows mixed trends, and the pre - holiday inventory reduction by upstream and inventory replenishment by downstream are approaching the end. The market will gradually enter a state of "price but no trading" during the holiday. The inventory of methanol production enterprises and ports has decreased. The US - Iran negotiation still has uncertainties. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The situation in Iran remains uncertain, and the coastal market has paused trading before the holiday. The inland market is in the final stage of inventory reduction and replenishment, with limited new orders but firm prices. [28] Urea - **View**: Pre - holiday orders are coming to an end, and urea oscillates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The supply of urea is at a high level, and industrial demand is gradually weakening as the Spring Festival approaches. Agricultural demand is mainly for flexible replenishment. The inventory of urea production enterprises has decreased. Most enterprises have completed pre - holiday order pre - sales, and the spot price is firm, with only small fluctuations. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The supply of urea is stable. Pay attention to the order - receiving progress of enterprises. The market will gradually enter a state of "price but no trading" during the holiday, and the price is expected to remain firm until after the holiday, waiting for the recovery of demand. [30] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the long holiday, and plastic may oscillate after a decline. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices oscillate, and the fundamentals of the crude oil market are not optimistic. The uncertainty of the US - Iran situation still supports oil prices. The commodity market sentiment is cautious before the holiday, and there is an indirect impact on plastic. The mid - stream inventory pressure of plastic is not large, and downstream enterprises have gradually stopped production for the holiday. There is still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [33] PP - **View**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the holiday, and PP oscillates after a decline. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices oscillate, and the fundamentals of the crude oil market are not optimistic. The US - Iran situation supports oil prices. The commodity market sentiment has weakened, which also suppresses PP. The PDH profit of PP refineries is still under pressure, providing some support for the price. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises have gradually stopped production before the holiday. There is an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [34] PL - **View**: Supported by the spot market, PL oscillates. - **Main Logic**: PDH maintenance still provides some support. The overall supply increase is limited, and enterprise inventory is controllable. Propylene supply has no pressure, and enterprises aim to stabilize the market. Downstream demand is weak, and short - term powder profit fluctuates within a narrow range. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [35] PVC - **View**: Low valuation and weak expectation, PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors may cause fluctuations and affect the commodity market sentiment. Domestic policies such as mercury - free technology and carbon - neutrality will help eliminate backward production capacity, but the implementation period may be long. The support of "export rush" for demand may weaken, and inventory reduction has slowed down. The production of PVC may remain high around the Spring Festival, downstream operating rate is high but trending downward, and the willingness to replenish inventory is poor. The export price of Formosa Plastics has been raised, and the enthusiasm of foreign buyers needs to be observed. Coal price is expected to rise, supporting the price of calcium carbide, and the dynamic cost of PVC is stable. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Market sentiment has weakened, and the support of export has decreased, but the low valuation of PVC makes the price oscillate. [36] Caustic Soda - **View**: The comprehensive profit is poor, and caustic soda weakly stabilizes. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors still affect the commodity market sentiment. Domestic policies will help eliminate backward production capacity, but the implementation period is long. The price of liquid chlorine has dropped, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has weakened, increasing the risk of production reduction after the holiday. The marginal profit of alumina production is poor, and the implementation of production reduction may be slow. A large alumina plant in Shandong has a high receiving volume of caustic soda, and the vehicle - pressing phenomenon has improved. The commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi is advancing, providing marginal support for caustic soda demand. Non - aluminum production has weakened, and low prices have boosted the willingness of middle - and downstream enterprises to replenish inventory. The upstream production has changed little, and the production of caustic soda remains at a high level. The price of liquid chlorine has declined, and the dynamic cost of caustic soda in Shandong is high. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The chlor - alkali profit is poor, but the futures price has a high premium. It is expected to oscillate before the holiday. [37] 2. Variety Data Monitoring Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., including the latest values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.68 with a change of 0.06, and Dubai's M1 - M2 spread is 0.32 with a change of - 0.13. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties, including asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 133 with a change of - 9, and the number of warehouse receipts is 43290 tons. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the inter - variety spreads, such as the spreads between PP and MA, TA and EG, etc. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 286 with a change of 37. [41] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists the basis and spread monitoring for multiple varieties including methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific detailed data summaries for each sub - item are not fully presented in the given text. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2722.24 with a +0.43% change, the industrial products index is 2281.60 with a +0.12% change, and the comprehensive index is 2383.17 with a +0.35% change. - **Energy Index**: On February 10, 2026, the energy index was 1152.81, with a daily increase of +0.92%, a 5 - day increase of +1.28%, a 1 - month increase of +3.02%, and a year - to - date increase of +6.10%. [281][283]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The demand for steel before the festival has declined, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market is weak. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, but there are disturbances in the iron ore shipping end, and the futures market shows signs of stabilization. As the winter storage is coming to an end, the support for coking coal and coke replenishment is gradually weakening, and the support for the futures market is limited. There are disturbances in the glass supply end, but the supply - demand surplus suppresses the futures price. In the short term, the futures market has downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downside space is limited [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Iron Element - The inventory pressure continues to increase, and there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side. The current market has average expectations for post - festival demand, and the futures market is under pressure. However, important meetings will be held after the festival, and there are still macro expectations. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure has been released. Pay attention to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] 2. Carbon Element - The subsequent growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines is still restricted, and the fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate [2] 3. Alloys - In the manganese - silicon market, supply is stronger than demand, and the pressure on upstream inventory reduction is increasing. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese - silicon contract will oscillate around the cost. In the silicon - iron market, both supply and demand are weak, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. However, the trading activity in the market around the Spring Festival is low, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. It is expected that the silicon - iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost [3] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances in the glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price. The overall supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 5. Individual Commodity Analysis Steel - Before the festival, the demand weakens, and the futures market is weak. The spot market trading is weak. The profitability of steel mills remains stable, the resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the molten iron output increases slightly, the electric furnaces begin to shut down one after another, and the output of five major steel products decreases slightly. The demand for building materials weakens seasonally, and the manufacturing demand is also in the off - season. The pressure of steel inventory accumulation is emerging, and the fundamentals are gradually accumulating contradictions. In the short term, the futures market has downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downside space is limited [7] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is under pressure to oscillate. The global shipping volume has decreased slightly. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side is expected to remain relatively loose. The demand for molten iron is still stable, and steel mills are accelerating the replenishment before the Spring Festival. As the replenishment progresses, the support for the price may gradually weaken. The inventory pressure is still accumulating, and the market sentiment has weakened recently. The futures market is under pressure. After the festival, the Two Sessions will be held, so pay attention to market sentiment changes [7][8] Scrap Steel - The electric furnaces are gradually shutting down, and the arrival of scrap steel at steel mills has decreased. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] Coke - Before the festival, the sentiment is average, and the futures market is under pressure to operate. The supply of coke has increased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory in steel mills has increased. The supply - demand structure of coke is relatively healthy. After the spot price increase is implemented, it remains stable for the time being, and the futures market still follows the cost - end coking coal [10] Coking Coal - More coal mines are on holiday, and the futures and spot are under pressure to oscillate. Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines is still restricted, and the fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [11] Glass - Before the festival, the contradictions are limited, and the price oscillates. There are expectations of disturbances in the supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price [12] Soda Ash - The supply remains at a high level, and the price oscillates. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand has a downward trend, and the dynamic surplus expectation is further intensified. The spot price may return to the price - cut channel, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [12][15] Manganese - Silicon - The inventory tends to increase, and there is still pressure above. The upstream inventory of manganese - silicon is high, but the cost price is firm, which makes it difficult for the futures price to continue to fall. The market trading is cold before the holiday, and the demand support for the price is weakening. The supply may increase after the festival, and the market inventory may further accumulate. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese - silicon contract will oscillate around the cost [16] Silicon - Iron - The trading atmosphere has become lighter, and the cost still provides support. The black - plate is under pressure in the off - season, and the market trading is rare before the holiday. The cost support of silicon - iron has become stronger. The demand support for the price is weakening, the production of silicon - iron remains at a low level, and the trading activity is low around the Spring Festival. It is expected that the silicon - iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost [18] 6. Index Information - On February 10, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is 2383.17, up 0.35%; the commodity 20 index is 2722.24, up 0.43%; the industrial products index is 2281.60, up 0.12%. The steel industry chain index on February 10, 2026, is 1928.47, with a daily decline of 0.38%, a decline of 2.68% in the past 5 days, a decline of 4.76% in the past month, and a decline of 2.40% since the beginning of the year. The PPI commodity index is 1404.94, up 0.04% [104][105]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Gold prices are digesting fluctuations at a high level, and the structural support remains solid. If the macro data does not significantly reverse the loose expectations, gold still has a basis for an upward trend [1]. - Silver: Silver is adjusting following the gold price, and the elasticity logic has not been damaged. It still has relative profit - making space under the premise of high - level gold prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Current Situation**: After a significant fluctuation at the end of January, the gold price has been oscillating above $5000. The short - term pullback is mainly due to profit - taking and position re - balancing, without triggering systematic capital outflows [1]. - **Logic**: During the recent gold price correction, the ETF had only a small outflow of about 20 tons, which is more like a phased profit - taking. The demand from official sectors is still the core long - term support, as the People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold holdings in January. Although the short - term interest rate path needs to be observed based on inflation and employment data, the expectation of interest rate cuts in 2026 has not been falsified. The uncertainty of US foreign and security policies keeps the demand for safe - haven asset allocation high [1]. - **Outlook**: If the macro data does not significantly reverse the loose expectations, gold still has a basis for an upward trend [1]. Silver - **Current Situation**: After a rapid rise, silver has entered a high - level consolidation stage following the gold price. Short - term fluctuations mainly reflect the decline in risk appetite and profit - taking by long - positions [2]. - **Logic**: The follow - up attribute of silver to gold still exists, and its elasticity advantage has not been systematically weakened [2]. - **Outlook**: Silver still has relative profit - making space under the premise of high - level gold prices. If the macro - expectations tilt towards looseness and re - inflation, silver is expected to show high - beta characteristics again [2]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: Not provided in detail - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index is 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial products index is 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.35, up 0.58% [43]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on February 9, 2026, is 4200.39, with a daily increase of 3.78%, a 5 - day increase of 0.91%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.84% [44].