Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel's current fundamentals show no marginal improvement, with overall supply-demand expected to remain loose in January and high visible inventories putting pressure on prices [3]. - Indonesia's proposed revision of the nickel ore domestic trade pricing method and reduction of the 2026 nickel ore quota have led to significant adjustments in market expectations of nickel costs and balance, providing some support for nickel prices [3]. - The market should be wary of increased price volatility after the previous rapid rally, and short - term investors can consider buying on dips while closely monitoring the actual implementation of relevant Indonesian policies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Dynamics and Reasons - On January 8, 2026, the Shanghai nickel contract plunged after a previous rapid rally, with the intraday price dropping to 13,380 tons. The LME nickel also declined significantly, with an intraday drop of over 4.5% [2]. - The sharp decline in nickel prices was mainly driven by the overall downturn in the non - ferrous sector, and the weak real - world fundamentals accelerated the decline. As of January 7, LME nickel inventories increased by over 20,000 tons to 275,600 tons, reaching a seven - year high [2]. - The uncertainty of Indonesia's policy on revising the domestic trade pricing method and the RKAB quota for nickel ore in 2026 has supported nickel prices. As of January 8, the Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister had not disclosed the specific RKAB amount and said it was still being calculated [2]. Fundamental Situation - On the supply side, China's electrolytic nickel production increased in December, and Indonesia's MHP, nickel ice, and nickel matte production remained high in December, resulting in continued supply pressure [2]. - On the demand side, it has entered the traditional off - season. Stainless steel production increased due to margin repair, but the electroplating and alloy sectors are expected to decline. Overall, the fundamentals remain in surplus, with LME nickel inventories increasing by 20,088 tons to 275,600 tons and Shanghai nickel inventories decreasing by 612 tons to 38,800 tons. Global visible inventories are still at a high level [2]. Summary and Strategy - Nickel's current fundamentals have not improved, and the overall supply - demand in January is expected to be loose. High visible inventories will suppress prices, while Indonesian policies will support prices. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of relevant policies [3]. - The market's expectation of Indonesian policies is still strong. After the previous rapid rally, the market should be wary of increased volatility. Short - term investors can consider buying on dips and focus on the actual implementation of Indonesian policies [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's concern about potential monopoly risks during the polysilicon capacity integration process has intensified, causing the polysilicon futures to hit the daily limit down. In the short - term, prices may decline due to emotional impacts. In the long - term, the process of eliminating backward production capacity will continue, and policy trends and the progress of solving monopoly issues need to be further observed [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - Polysilicon futures significantly corrected, with the main contract price dropping to 53,610 yuan/ton. The market is still digesting the expectation of state reserve purchases. After the exchange restricted liquidity, the open interest of the polysilicon futures has been decreasing, dragging down the market. Discussions around "self - discipline" and "integration" in the polysilicon industry have increased, raising concerns about compliance boundaries and competition sufficiency [2]. Fundamental Situation - Supply - demand of polysilicon remains relatively loose. In the supply side, production in Southwest China decreased after entering the dry season, and the domestic polysilicon output in December was below 120,000 tons. Silicon material enterprises may adopt a strategy of reducing production and lightening sales in the first - quarter off - season, and supply may further decline. In the demand side, the output of downstream industries decreased significantly in December and January, and the support from the demand side to the upstream is still limited. Recently, the spot prices of polysilicon have risen. The average transaction price of polysilicon lump - material was 59,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.83%, and that of n - type granular silicon was 55,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.5%. It is expected that inventory may accumulate slightly in January [3]. Summary and Strategy - For upstream industry investors, hedging operations can be considered when prices are high. For institutional investors, due to large short - term fluctuations, they can choose to wait and see [4].

J中信期货 IIC Futures EIA周度数据:石油产品库存压力加剧 | 2026年1月8日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 F03141405 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 -- 2026 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 美国汽油表观需求(万桶/日) 美国柴油表观需求(万桶/日) 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和 信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为 关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风 险,投资需谨慎。 美国1月2日当周商业原油库存下降383.2万桶,周度产量预估小幅下降1.6万桶/日,原油净进口增加 56.3万桶/日,炼厂开工率维持于94.7%。由于炼厂开工率仍处相对高位,汽油、柴油、航煤库存仍有累积、 原油与石油产品总库存 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The pattern of strong stocks and weak bonds continues. Stock index futures are in a state of oscillation, but the upward trend remains unchanged in the medium - term. Stock index options maintain high volatility and sentiment. Treasury bond futures continue to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The upward momentum of the equity market slowed down on Wednesday. The main indexes were mostly in the positive territory, but the gains were significantly smaller than those on Monday and Tuesday. The trading volume was 2.88 trillion, with a slight increase. The number of limit - up stocks decreased to 97. There are signs that the upward movement may slow down in the short - term, but it is still in the early stage of an upward trend in the medium - term. It is recommended to hold IC. The outlook is oscillatory and bullish [1][7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The underlying market fluctuated intraday. The Shanghai Composite Index barely closed in the positive territory. The CSI 500 and Science and Technology Innovation Board remained strong, while other varieties declined slightly. The trading volume of the options market was 116.16 billion yuan, a 16.75% increase from the previous day. Volatility and sentiment remained high. It is recommended to buy call options or use bull spreads. The outlook is oscillatory [2][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures fell across the board. The central bank will conduct a 1.1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation to inject medium - term liquidity. In the long - term, it is difficult to start a trend - based interest rate market. Institutions can play for rebounds, but a reversal still needs to wait. Trend strategy is oscillatory; hedging strategy is to pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; basis strategy is to appropriately pay attention to basis widening; curve strategy is that the curve may remain steep. The outlook is oscillatory [3][7][9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - It includes economic data such as China's December SPGI Services PMI, China's December foreign exchange reserves, the US December ADP employment change, and more, along with their previous values, predicted values, and some announced values [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Geopolitics**: The US plan to obtain 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil violates international law and Venezuela's sovereignty. China - Venezuela cooperation is protected by international law [11]. - **Central Bank**: The central bank will conduct a 1.1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation on January 8, 2026, to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [11]. - **Artificial Intelligence**: Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'". By 2027, China aims to achieve a series of goals in AI - related manufacturing fields [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the text [13][17][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On January 6, 2026, the outer - market prices of platinum and palladium dropped significantly in the afternoon, and the inner - market prices showed a differentiated trend. The closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 598.5 yuan/gram, with a decline of - 2.47%, while the palladium price was relatively stronger, with the GFEX palladium main contract closing at 475.95 yuan/gram, a rise of + 1.71% [1] - The platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro - expectations. The palladium price is also expected to be strong in a volatile manner due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Price Performance and Influencing Factors**: Affected by profit - taking and a slight strengthening of the US dollar, the precious metals sector declined, and the platinum price was under pressure. Geopolitical risks may further intensify price fluctuations. As of January 7, the premium of the domestic closing time of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract to NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 21.4 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference significantly converged [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The main supply country, South Africa, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion. Demand in the automotive catalyst field is relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding [2] - **Outlook and Strategies**: The platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. In the short term, prices may continue to fluctuate widely, and investors should trade cautiously. They can consider low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. For arbitrage strategies, wait for the internal - external price difference to widen again for internal - external positive arbitrage. Also, wait for the platinum - palladium price difference to converge for long - platinum and short - palladium operations [2] Palladium - **Price Performance and Influencing Factors**: The geopolitical issue in Russia is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce's investigation into the import of unforged palladium from Russia has led to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. Demand shows significant structural pressure [3] - **Outlook and Strategies**: The palladium price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. In the short term, price fluctuations are intensified, and investors should trade cautiously. For arbitrage strategies, take profits on internal - external positive arbitrage and consider long - platinum and short - palladium operations [3] Commodity Index - **Specialty Index**: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [50] - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 7, 2026, closed at 2846.27, up 0.27% for the day, up 6.38% in the past 5 days, up 10.47% in the past month, and up 5.97% since the beginning of the year [51]

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Precious metals prices have pulled back from high levels, with silver experiencing a larger decline than gold due to profit - taking by some investors and position adjustments before the re - balancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The weakening of the US economy, continuous gold purchases by the Chinese central bank, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of Fed easing are expected to limit the downside of gold prices. Silver, which has had a large increase previously, faces high short - term volatility risks [1]. - Gold prices dropped nearly 1% during the day. Given geopolitical tensions, Fed easing expectations, and continuous gold purchases by the Chinese central bank, the downside of gold is expected to be limited. Short - term attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday, the situation after the US raid on Venezuela, the weight adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, the nomination of the new Fed chair, and upcoming economic data [5]. - International silver prices dropped over 4% and Shanghai silver prices dropped nearly 4% during the day. Short - term volatility risks of silver at high levels have increased. Along with factors similar to those of gold, attention should also be paid to the results of the silver investigation in the US 232 report in mid - January [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US economic data: In December, the ADP employment was 41,000 (expected 47,000, previous - 29,000), the JOLTs job openings in November were 7.146 million (expected 7.6 million, previous 7.449 million), the December ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4 (expected 52.3, previous 52.6), the October factory order monthly rate was - 1.3% (expected - 1.2%, previous 0.2%), and the October durable goods order monthly rate final value was - 2.2% (in line with expectations and previous value) [2]. - Chinese central bank's gold purchase: As of December 2025, the Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, with the gold reserve reaching 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from November. The foreign exchange reserve was $3.3579 trillion, up $1.15 billion from November, rising for the 5th consecutive month [2]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange's adjustment: Starting from January 9, 2026, the flat - today trading fee of the silver futures AG2604 contract will be adjusted to 0.025% of the transaction amount. The trading margin ratio, daily price limit, and trading limit of some silver futures contracts will also be adjusted [3]. - Geopolitical event: On January 6, the US White House Press Secretary said that President Trump and his team are discussing "a series of options" to obtain Greenland, including "using the US military" [3]. Price Logic - Gold: The decline in gold prices during the day was nearly 1%. Given the weakening of the US economy, continuous gold purchases by the central bank, geopolitical tensions, and Fed easing expectations, the downside of gold prices is expected to be limited. Short - term attention should be paid to the non - farm payrolls report on Friday [5]. - Silver: International silver prices dropped over 4% and Shanghai silver prices dropped nearly 4% during the day. Short - term volatility risks of silver at high levels have increased. In addition to factors similar to those of gold, attention should be paid to the results of the silver investigation in the US 232 report in mid - January [6]. Index Information - Special Index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [48]. - Sector Index: The precious metals index on January 7, 2026, was 4030.94, with a daily decline of 0.67%, a 5 - day increase of 3.03%, a 1 - month increase of 14.46%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.40% [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's meeting emphasizes promoting high - quality economic development and a reasonable rise in prices, keeping the macro sentiment positive. The supply of coking coal is tightening, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke. With the expected resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking, iron ore prices remain strong. Although the fundamentals of steel in the off - season are lackluster, strong cost support keeps the futures prices strong. The price increase of glass and soda ash stimulates mid - stream restocking, but fundamental contradictions still exist [1][2]. - In general, the off - season fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. The resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the restocking expectation further, and the prices of furnace materials are expected to rise from the low level, but the upside is limited by steel mills' profits [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventories are continuously accumulating, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks the momentum to rise, but the good profits of electric furnaces support the demand. Overall, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The sharp rise in the futures market may drive spot - futures and speculative demand to enter the market for procurement. The room for further price cuts in the spot market is limited, and the futures price is expected to follow that of coking coal [2][11]. - Coking coal: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking is increasing, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2][12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to near the cost valuation. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply pressure of ferrosilicon is not large. The strong rebound of the black chain and the expected increase in electricity costs in Shaanxi support the futures price to maintain a high level in the short term. However, if the spot price rises significantly due to the influence of the futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear. Caution should be exercised regarding the upside space of the futures price [3][19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will intensify further, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][6][16]. Other Information - Steel: The cost and sentiment provide support, and the futures price is strong. The spot market transactions have improved, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. However, in the off - season, the demand is facing downward pressure, and the inventory removal speed has slowed down. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely at a low level, and attention should be paid to the pre - festival restocking rhythm [8]. - Commodity Index: On January 7, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities rose. The special index, including the Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, and Industrial Products Index, also increased. The steel industry chain index had significant gains, with a daily increase of 3.33%, a 5 - day increase of 2.82%, a 1 - month increase of 4.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.21% [106][107].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is disturbed by geopolitical risks, and the chemical industry as a whole continues to fluctuate. The Venezuelan situation affects the supply of crude oil, and the market prices of various energy and chemical products show different trends under multiple factors such as supply - demand, cost, and geopolitics [1][3]. - The trading logic of the chemical market is disturbed by multiple favorable factors, and the strength - weakness relationship between varieties has changed significantly. The rebound of polyolefins has opened the import arbitrage window for polyethylene, and the current rebound may overdraw the future maintenance benefits of the industry [2]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical factors continuously disturb, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. The supply of Venezuelan crude oil is expected to gradually normalize, and the global crude oil supply pressure continues. However, geopolitical prospects in Russia - Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela are the core factors guiding the crude oil supply expectation. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate under the balance of supply surplus and frequent geopolitical disturbances [1][8]. - **Main Logic**: EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased in the week of January 2, and the weekly production estimate decreased slightly. The refinery operating rate remained high, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased seasonally. If the US - Venezuelan crude oil trade volume increases and sanctions are reduced, the supply of Venezuela may recover slightly this year [8]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and it is regarded as short - term fluctuation [8]. Asphalt - **View**: The US is dealing with the sanctioned Venezuelan crude oil, and the asphalt futures price fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increase in the first quarter. Venezuela is expected to transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US. The interruption expectation of Venezuelan crude oil exports is gradually alleviated, and the asphalt raw material supply interruption expectation is also relieved. The asphalt cracking spread is under pressure. The asphalt production in Hainan has increased significantly, and the inventory pressure is still large. The asphalt is overvalued compared with fuel oil [9]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The Venezuelan situation is controllable, and the fuel oil futures price drops. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increase in the first quarter, and the supply of heavy oil will surge. The energy crisis in Iraq may lead to the resumption of fuel - oil power generation. However, the high - sulfur fuel oil demand is suppressed by the high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and the demand for fuel - oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually replaced by natural gas and photovoltaics [9]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates and declines. - **Main Logic**: It is affected by the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage, and it is expected to face the trend of increased supply and decreased demand. Currently, the valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and the lack of high - sulfur substitution demand space, but the current valuation is low and it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [11]. Methanol - **View**: The inventory accumulation along the coast slows down, and methanol is expected to be stable and slightly strong under the expectation of inventory reduction. - **Main Logic**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is rational. The port inventory is in an accumulation state, but the growth rate has slowed down, indicating that the reduction of imports is beneficial. However, the current MTO profit is not good, and the operation of some projects needs attention [29]. - **Outlook**: It is regarded as short - term stable and slightly strong [29]. Urea - **View**: The new order transactions push up the price close to the pressure level, and urea is regarded as fluctuating. - **Main Logic**: The supply side has high daily production and operation rate to meet previous orders. The demand side is cautious about high - price goods. The inventory is flat, and the sustainability of new order transactions near the price of 1800 yuan/ton needs attention [30]. - **Outlook**: It is regarded as short - term fluctuation [30]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The general rise of the coal - chemical industry boosts the atmosphere, but the increase is limited due to fundamental pressure. - **Main Logic**: The coal price rises, and the coal - chemical industry is supported by cost. However, the ethylene glycol's own inventory accumulation cycle is difficult to reverse, so the rebound space is limited [21][22]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price will fluctuate within the range, and the long - term inventory accumulation pressure is still large, with an operation range of [3700 - 3900] [22]. PX - **View**: The sector sentiment is warm, and the downstream demand still has support, so it maintains range consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak during the day, and the cost support is insufficient. However, the overall rise of downstream PTA is strong, which limits the decline of PX. The supply - demand variables are limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range [13]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range, and the positive - spread logic is maintained [13]. PTA - **View**: The cost guidance is limited, but the enthusiastic sentiment of chemical products supports the price to be firm. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is average during the day, and the cost support is insufficient. However, the domestic chemical product sector sentiment is high. The demand is expected to weaken, but the overall sentiment is warm, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. The overall supply - demand is in a tight pattern, and the spot market will fluctuate within a range [14]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate and consolidate with the cost. The TA05 contract can be bought on dips in the medium - term, and short - sold in the range of 5200 - 5300. The TA05 - 09 can be positively spread on dips [15]. Short - Fiber - **View**: The cost provides certain support, but the demand sustainability is insufficient, and the profit is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate without a clear direction. The downstream demand is continuously insufficient, and some terminal enterprises may enter the holiday state after the middle of the month. The chemical product sentiment is warm, and the short - fiber price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price will fluctuate with the upstream, and the processing fee is slightly under pressure [26]. Bottle - Chip - **View**: More devices are under maintenance in January, and the basis is firm. - **Main Logic**: The commodity market rises as a whole, and the cost support is acceptable. However, the downstream terminal replenishment willingness is not high, which restricts the increase. It is expected that the market center of polyester bottle - chips will fluctuate and adjust [27]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value fluctuates with the raw material, and the support for the processing fee increases [27]. Propylene (PL) - **View**: There is an expectation of PDH maintenance, and PL rises slightly. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance boosts the price. The enthusiasm of market participants has increased, and the enterprise inventory is low. The powder profit has been slightly repaired, but the downstream demand in the off - season has limited support [36]. - **Outlook**: PL fluctuates in the short term [36]. PP - **View**: The coal price indirectly boosts, but the basis support is limited, and PP rises cautiously. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and the actual reduction in Venezuelan crude oil exports is uncertain. The coal price rebounds in the short term, which indirectly boosts PP. It is the off - season for PP downstream, and the trading volume has decreased after the futures price rebound. The short - term maintenance has increased [35]. - **Outlook**: PP fluctuates in the short term [35]. LLDPE - **View**: The downstream trading volume has decreased, and the upward space of LLDPE is limited. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and the supply of crude oil is disturbed in the short term. The futures price rebounds slightly under the repair of macro - expectations, but the spot is weak, and the basis is weak. It is the off - season for plastic demand, and the demand support is limited [34]. - **Outlook**: LLDPE fluctuates in the short term [34]. PVC - **View**: There are frequent supply disturbances, and PVC is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. From a domestic perspective, the marginal device operation rate has increased slightly, and the profit repair may increase the supply elasticity. From an overseas perspective, some PVC production capacity has withdrawn from the market. The downstream is in the off - season, and the export orders are average [39]. - **Outlook**: Supported by factors such as "anti - involution", spring maintenance expectations, and overseas device disturbances, PVC runs strongly. If the sentiment fades, the adjustment pressure on the disk will increase [39]. Caustic Soda - **View**: The market sentiment is positive, and caustic soda is driven up. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. The expected increase in the electricity cost of restricted - capacity caustic soda in Shaanxi boosts the market sentiment. The alumina marginal device profit is poor, and the demand for caustic soda has marginal support. The upstream production is stable, and the caustic soda cost is expected to increase [41]. - **Outlook**: The disk may fluctuate. The support comes from positive market sentiment and the expectation of cost increase, while the pressure comes from high inventory and pessimistic supply - demand expectations [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple agricultural products are in a state of price fluctuation. The overall supply of oilseeds is relatively loose, and the prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate. The prices of double - meal are also expected to fluctuate. Corn prices are expected to range - bound, and the pig market is expected to be volatile with a near - term weak and long - term strong trend. The prices of natural and synthetic rubber are expected to be bullish in the short - term and mid - term respectively. Cotton prices are expected to be bullish in the long - term, while sugar prices are expected to be bearish in the medium - and long - term. Pulp prices are expected to be bullish with fluctuations, and the prices of double - gum paper and logs are expected to be range - bound [1][5][8][11][13][16][18][19][20][22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats are fluctuating, with soybean oil being relatively strong. Attention should be paid to important reports [5]. - **Logic**: Soybean oil has a relatively strong trend, with a firm basis and increased spot trading. The impact of international geopolitical issues on crude oil prices is weakening, and the supply surplus has led to a decline in crude oil prices. The market expects a bumper harvest of South American soybeans, which will impact US soybean exports. The domestic soybean oil market should pay attention to the arrival and crushing of auctioned soybeans. Malaysian palm oil is in the production - reduction season, but the export demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is uncertain. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to decline in the near - term, and the basis is expected to be strong, while the supply is expected to increase in the long - term [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to the fundamental indicators and policy expectations, and consider short - term buying hedging after an oversold situation [6]. 3.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The market trading is hot, and double - meal continues to rise [1][8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the weather in South America is generally favorable for crop growth, but the dry weather in central and southern Argentina is a concern. The market expects a bumper harvest of South American soybeans, and the US soybean exports are facing competition. Domestically, there is a situation of weak supply and demand before the festival. The oil mill's operating rate, meal sales, and pick - up volume have all decreased, and the inventory has increased. The downstream pig inventory has increased, but the breeding is in a loss, and the feed enterprises' inventory has also increased. There are uncertainties in rapeseed imports [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to China's soybean import customs inspection policy [2][9]. 3.3. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The rotation of grain continues to be sold at a premium, and the futures have strengthened again [11]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals are generally stable. The premium transactions of corn acquisition and auction have ignited the market's bullish sentiment. The sales of grain in the Northeast are slow, and the arrival volume in the North China is decreasing. The downstream has established a certain safety inventory, and the production profit of deep - processing enterprises has shrunk. The launch of the policy - based grain source has a limited negative impact on corn [11]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be range - bound, and it is expected to fall first and then rise before the Spring Festival [11]. 3.4. Pig - **Viewpoint**: The slaughter rhythm slows down at the beginning of the month, and the spot price rebounds slightly [12]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the slaughter volume in December was high, and the planned slaughter volume in January has decreased. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long - term, the sow inventory has decreased, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The consumption has weakened after the New Year's Day holiday, and the pig weight is higher than the same period last year [13]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be volatile. The near - term prices are expected to be range - bound at a low level, while the long - term prices are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [13]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The rubber price maintains a bullish trend [15]. - **Logic**: Driven by the overall strong sentiment in the commodity market, natural rubber has continued to rise. The rise is mainly driven by macro factors, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material prices are firm, but the demand is weak after the price increase [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, but the capital sentiment is strong. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term [16]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The upward logic remains unchanged, and the market is running strongly [17]. - **Logic**: The market generally expects the fundamentals of butadiene to improve. The absolute price of the BR market is low. The price of butadiene has been strong recently, which has boosted the market. Although the inventory has increased, the buying sentiment has been driven by the positive expectations [18]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is short - term pressure. It is expected to be range - bound with an upward trend in the medium - term [18]. 3.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It continues to rise with increasing positions [18]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue to rise, and the domestic market is expected to be stronger than the international market. The core drivers are the expected tight balance this year and the expected decrease in the planting area in 2026. The supply of US cotton is expected to be loose, and its rise will be indirectly driven by the domestic market [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be range - bound with an upward trend in the long - term. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [18]. 3.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is fluctuating, and there is still pressure in the future [19]. - **Logic**: Globally, the supply in the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to be loose. In the domestic market, the sugar production is expected to increase. The overall supply situation at home and abroad remains unchanged, and the sugar price is expected to be weak in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be range - bound with a downward trend in the medium - and long - term. A strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [19]. 3.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: It falls after reaching a high, and the pulp market continues to fluctuate [20]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation has not changed significantly. There are still some bullish factors, such as the increase in the US dollar price of broad - leaf pulp and the expected supply reduction of coniferous pulp. However, there are also bearish factors, such as the difficulty in cost transfer and the seasonal decline in demand. The market is currently driven by capital, and the futures are expected to be range - bound with an upward trend [20]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be range - bound with an upward trend. The bottom is supported by positive news, but there is pressure from hedging at the top [20][21]. 3.10. Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals have not changed much, and the double - gum paper market is fluctuating at a high level [21]. - **Logic**: The market sentiment has improved after the paper mill raised the price, and the futures market has been running strongly. The spot market has changed from a downward trend to an upward trend. The supply is expected to be stable in January, and the price is expected to be supported in the short - term. The price may be weak in February due to the Spring Festival holiday and is expected to be supported in March [22]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to form a bottom, and it is expected to be range - bound with an upward trend in the short - term [22]. 3.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The market is warming up, and logs are strengthening following the black - goods sector [23]. - **Logic**: Driven by the overall strength of the commodity and black - goods sectors, the log futures have rebounded. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January and February. The futures price has support at a certain level, and the 03 contract has some trading opportunities [23]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure will ease marginally in January and February, and the log market is expected to be range - bound [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply disruption concerns continue, and base metals remain strong. In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. The impact of weak real - time demand is limited, and supply disruption concerns continue to drive up base metals. Long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [1]. - Copper: Supply disruptions in copper mines are frequent, and copper prices continue to run strongly [2][7]. - Alumina: The market sentiment is high, and alumina prices have rebounded strongly [2][7]. - Aluminum: The capital sentiment is optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to show a strong upward trend [2][9]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support is strong, and the market continues to show a strong upward trend [2][11]. - Zinc: The short - term supply recovery is slow, and zinc prices fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [2][12]. - Lead: The absolute level of social inventory is low, and lead prices continue to rebound [2][16]. - Nickel: Supported by Indonesian policy expectations, nickel prices have soared [2][17]. - Stainless steel: Driven by the rise in nickel prices, the stainless - steel market has soared [2][21]. - Tin: Supply disruptions have emerged again, and tin prices are fluctuating upwards [2][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information analysis: In 2026, the copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. On January 7, 2026, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the futures contract. There were strikes at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and a delay in the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador [7]. - Main logic: The Fed's interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply is tightening. Refined copper supply is expected to shrink, and although the current demand is weak, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to supply constraints and disruptions [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was flat, and the national weighted index decreased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipt was 154,828 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - Main logic: The macro - sentiment amplifies market fluctuations. The supply is in a state of over - accumulation, and the cost support is average. The market is at the bottom and fluctuating, and more smelter production cuts or new ore - end disturbances are needed to boost prices [7]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand is in surplus, but the valuation is in the low - end range, and alumina is expected to remain volatile [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt on the SHFE increased. Some air - conditioning companies launched the "aluminum replacing copper" standard implementation work, while Gree promised not to raise prices and had no such plan [9]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is positive. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and the overseas supply has constraints. The current high aluminum prices suppress demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong [9]. - Outlook: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong. In the medium term, the supply increment is limited, and the demand is resilient, so the price center is expected to rise [9][10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum alloy - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of Baotai ADC12 aluminum alloy increased [11]. - Main logic: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The weekly operating rate decreased due to raw material shortages and profit issues. The demand is currently based on rigid procurement, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Overall, the cost support and stable supply - demand are expected to keep prices volatile and strong [11]. - Outlook: In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to cost support and potential supply policy disturbances [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a premium to the futures contract. As of January 7, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply [12][14]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the smelter profit has declined. The domestic zinc ingot supply pressure is not large, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high and volatile, and in the long term, there is a risk of price decline [14]. - Outlook: In January, zinc prices are expected to be volatile as the production increases slightly, the demand is in the off - season, and the non - ferrous metal sector is strong [14][15]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipt decreased slightly. After the New Year's Day holiday, the lead industry chain gradually resumed normal trading [16]. - Main logic: The spot premium decreased, the supply was affected by environmental protection with a decline in production, and the demand was mixed. The electric bicycle orders were weak, while the automobile battery orders improved [16]. - Outlook: As smelters resume production, the lead ingot production may increase. The demand is weakening marginally, but the high cost of waste batteries supports prices, so lead prices are expected to be volatile [16][17]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased, and the LME nickel inventory increased. The January 2026 KSP price increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [17][18]. - Main logic: The supply pressure of nickel remains high, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The policy of Indonesia on nickel production quota is uncertain. Overall, the current supply - demand is loose, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. - Outlook: In January, the supply - demand of nickel is expected to remain loose, and LME inventory is high, suppressing prices. However, if the actual Indonesian quota is low, the oversupply expectation will decline, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. 3.1.8 Stainless steel - Information analysis: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt decreased slightly. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [21]. - Main logic: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the recovery of nickel - iron prices. The production in December decreased, and the production plan for January may increase slightly. The terminal demand is cautious, and the inventory may accumulate. Overall, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][22]. - Outlook: In January, the production may increase slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. Considering the long - term suppressed industry profit and mine - end support, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][23]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information analysis: On January 6, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, the SHFE tin warehouse receipt decreased, and the SHFE tin position increased. The spot price of 1 tin ingot increased [24]. - Main logic: The supply of tin is a major concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State is affected by issues such as explosive approval, and the supply in Indonesia and Africa is also restricted. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the development of related industries [24]. - Outlook: Due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain, tin prices are expected to be volatile and strong [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Index data - Comprehensive index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [151]. - Non - ferrous metal index: On January 7, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2846.27, up 0.27% on the day, up 6.38% in the past 5 days, up 10.47% in the past month, and up 5.97% since the beginning of the year [152].