1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends investors to continue holding long positions or to add to them on dips [10][12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 12, 2026, tin prices surged, breaking through 375,000 yuan/ton during trading hours, hitting a new high for the year due to supply disruptions and high - market sentiment [4][6] - Tin prices may show a strong and volatile trend, with a short - term focus on the SHFE Tin fluctuation range of 350,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton. If prices break through, the upper limit could shift to around 450,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton [10][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event Review - Indonesia's tin supply may be constrained in Q1 2026 due to RKAB approvals, and as of January 7, 2026, the tin trading volume on its two major exchanges was 0 [4][6] - In Africa, political instability and underdeveloped infrastructure limit tin mine production and exports, with high - risk levels. For example, on January 8, 2026, the Chinese Embassy in the Democratic Republic of Congo reported security issues in South Kivu Province, and there were protests in key mining cities [5][6] Market Outlook Supply Side - The domestic mine tightening situation remains unresolved, constraining refined tin production. As of January 9, 2026, the processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,000 yuan/ton [8][11] - China's cumulative refined tin production from January - December 2025 was 0.1787 million tonnes, down 2.8% year - on - year, and the single - month production in December 2025 was 1.60 tonnes, down 1.8% year - on - year [8][11] - Tin inventories have decreased recently. As of January 9, 2026, domestic tin ingot social inventory was 7,478 tons, down 1,042 tons from the previous period. By the end of December 2025, domestic tin ingot company inventory was 3,950 tons, down 1,400 tons from the previous period and 2,070 tons year - on - year [8][11] - Ongoing mine tightening will cause raw material shortages for smelters and low tin concentrate processing fees, making it difficult to increase refined tin production [9][12] Demand Side - The US and Europe are in interest - rate cut cycles and have fiscal expansions, which are expected to positively impact the global economy [9][12] - The semiconductor sector is growing rapidly, and consumption in photovoltaics and electric vehicles is expected to rise further. Considering the need to rebuild the supply chain inventory, tin ingot demand will grow sustainably [9][12]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 数据来源: Mysteel 汾渭 中信期货研究所 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我可不会因为关注 、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 免责声明：除非另有说明、中信期货有限公司（以下简称"中信期货"） 拥有本报告的版权/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权、不得发 送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐 含的保证。本报告并不构成中信期货给予的任何私人咨询建议。 冬储补库开启,焦煤震荡上行 2026/01/12 研究员: 余典 陶存辉 薛原 串宇蒙 钟宏 从业资格号 F03122523 从业资格号 F03099559 从业资格号 F03100815 从业资格号 F03144159 从业资格号 F03118246 投资咨询号 Z0019832 投资咨询号 Z0020955 投资咨询号 Z0021807 投资咨询号 Z0022199 投资咨询号 Z0022727 今日焦煤期货全线飘红,主力合约im26 ...

CITIC Futures 关键矿产232调查尚未落地,"门罗主义"预期带动金属整体强势。1月3日美国袭击委内瑞拉,后续多次发表对格陵兰岛的"凯 ُ靓"言论，地缘冲突扩散的预期持续走强,市场对美国复刻"门罗主义"式的外交政策预期提升,资源安全忧虑带动金属板块整体走强 。上周伦敦自银租赁利率小幅回落。1月与3月利率水平回落至4%=6%的区间，但美国就关键矿产的232调查结果仍未披露。关税预期未尘 埃落定的前提下, 囤积性需求或始终对流动库存形成挤占,白银的现货紧张逻辑或反复。 展望后市, 金银预计整体维持震荡上行趋势, 自银高波动状态短期或持续。上周彭博商品指数权重调整的利空已然落地,金银 小幅调整后重回升势。在流动性驱动、顺周期预期叠加资源安全忧虑的多重利多驱动下、金属板块共振上行、金银短期预计维持强势, 伦敦金有望向4900-5000美元/盎司进发、自银有望挑战90-100美元/盎司的新高,白银高波动的现状或维持,投资者仍需注意持仓风险 风险因素:美联储降息预期变动,全球经济预期变动,地缘冲突超预期变动 研究员 | 朱善颖 | 张皓云 | 王丹 | | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号:F ...

2026-01-12 排 货有 限 公 司 - 12月委内瑞拉产量下滑, 0PEC总 2017年 mnanv Limited -OPEC产量调查数据报告 研究员: 李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 影博调查数据显示，2025年12月0PEC产量环比增加4万桶/日，同比增加193万桶/日。分国家来看，12月配额增量保持较低水平，0PE0担织中属 于OPEO+增产8国的5个国家合计产量增幅为6万桶/日，其中伊拉克增产8万桶/日，阿联酋城产2万桶/日。委内瑞拉因受美国对其油运频繁干预影 响，12月产量下降13万桶/日，对OPEC产量形成最大拖累。同比来看OPEC+增产主导的供应压力仍在兑现之中，关注后期OPEC月报数据验证。 风险提示:彭博对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 1: OPEC产量(彭博) | 单位:千桶/日 | 2025年12月 | 产量同比 | 产量环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沙特 | 10000 | 1050 | 0 | | 伊拉克 | 4370 | 250 | 80 | | 科威特 | 2560 | 130 | 0 | | 阿联酋 ...

货有限公司 陆上及浮仓库存均走高 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 2026-01-12 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 1月11日当周，全球原油陆上库存止跌回升,浮仓库存持续攀升,全口径（含在途）库存回落，即在途船货数量减少。陆上库存分区域看,中 国、印度、俄罗斯、欧洲、中东库存均回升。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 2026 · - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 千桶 士機 3600000 2400000 210000 3550000 1800000 3500000 150000 3450000 120000 3400000 90000 3350000 3300000 第13屆 第17屆 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 图表 3:全球陆塑+浮仓原油 2023 - 2022 2023 - 2022 千桶 千题 3800000 49000000 4800000 3700000 470000 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's recent focus is on the December non - farm payroll data and the tariff ruling result. The December non - farm payroll data did not cause significant market impact. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.375% in December, exceeding market expectations and well below the previous value of 4.6%, temporarily avoiding the trigger of the Sahm Rule. However, the non - farm employment added in December was 50k, lower than expected and the previous two months' data was revised down by a total of 76k. The labor market demand remains weak. The tariff - related de - dollarization and pre - emptive interest rate cut logic may reverse if the tariff bill is invalidated, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The Federal Reserve's threshold for a January interest rate cut is high, and if the labor market maintains the current "low - speed balance", the short - term monetary easing path may not be supported [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Indicators Exchange Rate - related Indicators - The US dollar index rebounded slightly following the US - Germany interest rate spread. The US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has recovered. The difference in the US - Europe Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has also increased [2][5][7] - The difference in long - term inflation expectations between the US and Europe has further declined, and the US long - term inflation expectation is oscillating at a low level [9][12] - The US short - term interest rate expectation is significantly changing, and the difference in short - term interest rate expectations between the US and Europe is rising [14][16] - The euro swap basis shows that the US dollar cross - border liquidity pressure is limited [18] Position and Market Sentiment Indicators - The CFTC net position shows that the US dollar maintains a net short position exposure. The VIX index reflects market volatility [21][20] Bond Spread Indicators - Based on the 30 - 10Y spread (in reverse order) and the 10Y swap spread, concerns about US Treasury deficits and the US dollar trend show a slight narrowing of the spreads [23] Commodity - related Indicators - The US dollar index and copper price show that the copper price has risen significantly, and the US dollar index and crude oil price show that the crude oil price has rebounded [27]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds, including the issuance and net financing scale of new special bonds, new general bonds, local government bonds, and national bonds in the week up to January 11, 2026, as well as the planned issuance and net financing scale for the following week [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Content New Special Bond Issuance - This week, new special bond issuance was 87.4 billion yuan, a 72.9 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned issuance is 22.8 billion yuan. As of January 11, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in January was 87.4 billion yuan [2] New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 1 billion yuan, a 1 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned issuance is 0 yuan. As of January 11, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in January was 100 million yuan [2] Local Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the local government bond net financing scale was 114.7 billion yuan, a 97.2 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 60.9 billion yuan [2] National Bond Net Financing - This week, the national bond net financing scale was 495 billion yuan, a 495 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is - 339.2 billion yuan [5] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was 609.7 billion yuan, a 592.2 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is - 278.3 billion yuan [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin price is expected to show an oscillating and upward - trending pattern. The short - term price fluctuation range is 350,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and if the price breaks through, the upper limit of the range may further rise to about 450,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended that investors continue to hold long positions or allocate long positions on dips [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On January 12, 2026, the tin price soared, breaking through 315,000 yuan/ton during intraday trading and reaching a new high for the year. The main reason is the continuous supply disruptions and the further release of price elasticity under high market sentiment [3] - In Myanmar, due to the slower - than - expected explosive approval process, there will be a shortage of production raw materials and difficulties in mine production at the beginning of 2026. It is expected that the average monthly output in Myanmar at the beginning of the year will only be maintained at about 1,000 metal tons [3] - In Indonesia, due to the influence of RKAB approval, the supply in the first quarter may still be restricted. As of January 7, the trading volume of tin in the two major exchanges in Indonesia was 0 [3] - In the African region, political instability and backward infrastructure have continuously restricted tin ore production and exports, and the current risk remains high [3] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the tight situation of domestic tin ore supply remains unresolved, restricting the output of smelting plants. The processing fee for tin concentrate also remains at a low level. As of January 9, the processing fee (TC) for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,000 yuan/ton [4] - From January to December 2025, China's cumulative refined tin production was 18,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The single - month output in December was 1,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [4] - Under the situation of tight supply, the tin inventory has decreased recently. As of January 9, the domestic tin ingot social inventory was 478 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,042 tons. As of the end of December, the domestic tin ingot enterprise inventory was 3,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2,070 tons [4] Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the tin ore supply continues to tighten, resulting in a short - term shortage of raw materials for smelters, low processing fees for tin concentrates, and difficulty in increasing the output of refined products [5] - In terms of demand, the United States is still in an interest - rate - cut cycle, and the expansion of the fiscal end is expected to have a positive effect on the global economy. The semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and consumption in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand will continue to grow [5]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern. There are opportunities for bottom - fishing and long - position layout due to emotional disturbances [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit again, with the main contract rising to 156,080 yuan/ton. The current market is driven by the resonance of capital flow and policy changes. Short - term capital risk appetite has risen, and funds have concentrated on upstream resource sectors. The adjustment of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and battery products has strengthened the market's expectation of short - term demand advancement and increased downstream production scheduling [2]. Fundamental Situation - Impact of export tax rebate adjustment: In the short term, before the tax rebate is gradually reduced, there is an incentive for battery and related products to be exported in advance, which supports the demand for lithium carbonate and its price. In the long term, the complete cancellation of the tax rebate will increase enterprise costs and compress profit margins, and the long - term impact is more reflected in the improvement of industry concentration and the acceleration of global layout [3]. - Supply side: There is still a risk of short - term supply tightness. Domestic policies and overseas fluctuations need to be noted. Domestic policies may affect short - term supply rhythms, and geopolitical and resource policies in Mali and South America have increased the market's expectation of overseas supply instability [3]. - Demand side: The marginal demand for lithium carbonate has weakened at the current stage, but the long - term expectation is still optimistic, especially the demand on the energy storage side is relatively stable. In the short term, the concentrated maintenance of some leading cathode material enterprises is expected to suppress the demand in January, but the expected cathode production scheduling in January has been revised upwards, and the actual demand is better than expected [3]. - Inventory side: The previous continuous destocking of lithium carbonate has ended, and there was a shift from destocking to stockpiling last week. As of January 9, the social inventory was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 337 tons. The slight inventory accumulation is in line with the logic of the phased decline in demand, and the downstream inventory replenishment demand still exists, with limited impact on prices [3]. Summary and Strategy - Although the inventory of lithium carbonate has slightly accumulated, short - term demand is still resilient. The expectation of pre - export by downstream enterprises before the adjustment of the export tax rebate, concerns about overseas resource fluctuations, and the increase in capital risk appetite support the price of lithium. The long - term demand expectation is also optimistic [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The report provides daily data tracking of the aluminum industry chain, including prices, profits, inventories, and import/export balances of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy [1] Group 3: Summary by Category Alumina - On January 8, the domestic ore price was 501 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/ton; the Guinea imported ore price was 66 US dollars/dry ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 US dollars/dry ton [1] - The average price of 50M M00 on January 8 was 24,000 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 140 yuan/ton; the premium/discount was -190 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 50 yuan/ton [1] - On January 8, the futures inventory was 90,208 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2,278 tons; the import profit and loss was -1,908 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 178 yuan/ton [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 8, the price of Baotai 0031 was 23,100 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 200 yuan/ton [1] - The smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum on January 8 was 7,803 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 133 yuan/ton [1] - On January 8, the spot price index was 2,676 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the futures inventory was 69,737 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 391 tons; the import profit and loss was 44 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 12 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Alloy - On January 8, the scrap price difference of raw aluminum was 2,691 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 7 yuan/ton; the scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 3,766 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 7 yuan/ton [1] - On January 8, the futures inventory was 154,828 tons, with a month-on-month change of 0 tons; the import profit and loss was -16 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 48 yuan/ton [1]