Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year [4][9] - The company expects to achieve a total revenue of 119 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 12.6 billion yuan, indicating a significant recovery [9] - The company has improved its gross margin to 37.82% in Q1 2025, driven by a decrease in raw milk prices and growth in high-margin products [7] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 29.76 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 189.4 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 6.366 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.9% [3] - The largest shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 26.74 billion yuan, a decline of 7.07% year-on-year, with a net profit of -2.42 billion yuan [5] - The company’s revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products in 2024 was 75.003 billion yuan, 29.675 billion yuan, and 0.722 billion yuan respectively, showing varying degrees of decline [6] - The company’s dividend payout ratio increased to 91.4% in 2024, reflecting a strategy to maintain shareholder returns despite profit declines [8] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 1,220.44 billion yuan, 1,273.85 billion yuan, and 1,332.65 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 112.44 billion yuan, 126.74 billion yuan, and 140.79 billion yuan [9][11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.77 yuan, 1.99 yuan, and 2.21 yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17, 15, and 13 [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that Yili Group demonstrates a dual leadership in both scale and quality, achieving a revenue of 115.78 billion yuan and a net profit growth of 12.2% in 2024, solidifying its position as the leading dairy company in Asia [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yili Group reported total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.539 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [5][6]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 33.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.35%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 24.19% to 4.629 billion yuan [5][6]. - The gross margin improved by 131 basis points to 34.03%, driven by product structure optimization and supply chain efficiency [6]. - Operating cash flow increased by 18.86% to 21.74 billion yuan, indicating a significant enhancement in the company's cash-generating ability [6]. Shareholder Returns - Yili Group proposed a dividend payout ratio of 91.4%, with total shareholder returns exceeding the net profit, marking a notable performance in the A-share consumer sector [6][7]. - Since its listing, the company has distributed a total of 50.8 billion yuan in dividends, establishing a positive cycle of performance growth, cash flow abundance, and enhanced shareholder returns [7]. Business Structure and Growth - Yili's business structure consists of three layers: basic dairy products, strategic new products, and future foods, with liquid milk generating 75.003 billion yuan in revenue, maintaining its industry leadership [9][11]. - The high-end low-temperature milk segment grew over 30%, reflecting new consumer trends, while the company’s milk powder and dairy products revenue reached 29.675 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.53% [11][13]. - The cold drink segment achieved revenue of 8.721 billion yuan, benefiting from successful scene innovation strategies [14][16]. Strategic Initiatives - Yili Group is focusing on a dual strategy of functional nutrition and deep processing of dairy products, aiming to capture high-value industry segments [18][20]. - The company is leveraging a "horizontal and vertical" strategic layout to enhance its product offerings and market positioning, including collaborations with traditional medicine to innovate product lines [18][19]. - Digital transformation is integrated across the entire supply chain, enhancing efficiency and reducing operational costs significantly [19][20].

Core Insights - The core point of the article is that Yili Group has demonstrated strong operational resilience and quality in its financial performance, achieving significant revenue and profit growth amidst a competitive and transforming dairy industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yili Group reported total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 12.2% to 11.54 billion yuan after excluding goodwill impairment [3]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, and a non-recurring net profit of 4.63 billion yuan, up 24.19% [3]. - The gross profit margin improved by 131 basis points to 34.03%, indicating enhanced product structure and supply chain efficiency [5]. - Operating cash flow increased by 18.86% to 21.74 billion yuan, significantly exceeding net profit, reflecting improved cash generation capability [6]. Cost Management - Management expense ratio decreased by 23 basis points to 3.86%, while sales expense ratio dropped by 152 basis points in Q1 2025 [7]. - These cost control measures have led to a noticeable increase in net profit margin, positioning Yili for a new growth trajectory in 2025 [8]. Shareholder Returns - Yili has maintained a high shareholder return with a proposed dividend payout ratio of 91.4% and a buyback plan of 2 billion yuan, resulting in total shareholder returns exceeding net profit [9]. - Since its listing, Yili has distributed a total of 50.8 billion yuan in dividends, establishing a positive cycle of performance growth, cash flow abundance, and enhanced shareholder returns [9]. Product Strategy - Yili's product matrix has evolved into a three-tier structure: basic dairy products, strategic new products, and future foods [10]. - The liquid milk segment generated 75.00 billion yuan in revenue, maintaining its industry leadership, while high-end low-temperature milk grew by 30%, reflecting new consumer trends [11][13]. - The company achieved a record high revenue of 29.68 billion yuan from milk powder and dairy products, with significant growth in both adult milk powder and sheep milk powder segments [15]. Strategic Initiatives - Yili is focusing on functional nutrition and deep processing of dairy products as part of its strategic initiatives for 2025, aiming to capture high-value industry segments [18]. - The company is leveraging collaborations, such as with Tongrentang, to create innovative products that combine traditional Chinese medicine with dairy [18]. - Yili's digital transformation is enhancing efficiency across its supply chain, from smart management systems on farms to AI quality control in production [19]. Industry Context - The dairy industry in China is at a critical transformation point, moving beyond mere scale expansion to value enhancement as the primary competitive direction [1][2]. - As the second-largest dairy market globally, China's dairy consumption per capita remains below global averages, indicating significant growth potential for the industry [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [9]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is expected to see improvements in 2025 after a challenging 2024, with various sub-sectors showing signs of recovery and growth potential [1][16]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector experienced a revenue decline of 7.2% in 2024, with a significant drop in net profit by 27% and 43.3% for attributable and non-recurring net profit respectively. However, Q1 2025 showed a slight revenue increase of 0.4% and a notable recovery in non-recurring net profit by 24.4% [2][16]. - Major dairy companies are expected to stabilize operations after channel adjustments, with recommendations for Yili and Mengniu [2][24]. Snack Foods - The snack food sector saw a revenue increase of 2.8% in 2024, but faced challenges in Q1 2025 with a revenue decline of 4.8%. The sector is benefiting from channel innovations and the growth of the konjac category [3][29]. - Companies like Yanjinpuzi and Ganyuan Foods are recommended due to their adaptability to market changes [3][33]. Beer - The beer sector faced a revenue decline of 1.5% in 2024, but Q1 2025 showed a recovery with a 3.7% revenue increase. The sector is expected to improve due to low inventory levels and a stabilizing restaurant demand [4][24]. - Recommended stocks include Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer [4][24]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector demonstrated resilience with a revenue growth of 15.7% in 2024, and a stable performance in Q1 2025 with a 5.5% increase. The sector is benefiting from strong travel demand and new product launches [5][24]. - Key recommendations include Nongfu Spring and attention to Kangshifu and Uni-President [5][24]. Condiments - The condiment sector saw a revenue increase of 7.7% in 2024, but growth has been modest in 2025. Major players are adjusting to improve market share [6][24]. - Companies like Haitian Flavoring and Zhongju Gaoxin are highlighted for their ongoing transformations [6][24]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector has been under pressure with a revenue increase of only 1.6% in 2024 and a decline of 5.1% in Q1 2025. Intense price competition is affecting profitability [7][24]. - The sector is expected to improve as restaurant demand recovers [7][24].

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates resilience and strong performance in a challenging industry environment, achieving significant revenue and profit growth despite market pressures [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, maintaining its position as the leading dairy company in Asia, with a net profit of 11.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.35%, and a net profit of 4.63 billion yuan, up 24.19% year-on-year [1][4]. - The overall gross margin improved by 131 basis points to 34.03%, and operating cash flow reached 21.74 billion yuan, an increase of 18.86% [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is preparing for industry recovery by focusing on maintaining channel and supply chain health, enhancing profitability, and promoting high-quality business development [1][4]. - The company has successfully adjusted its strategies in response to market challenges, leading to improved channel health and stable sales during peak seasons [4][5]. Business Segments - The liquid milk and ice cream businesses remain the company's primary revenue drivers, with liquid milk revenue reaching 75.00 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining the top position in the industry [6]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment achieved revenue of 29.68 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.53% [8]. - The company is also expanding into the health food sector, with strong growth in non-dairy products such as bottled water and beef [10]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the industry's recovery, noting positive signals from upstream and downstream sectors and supportive government policies aimed at boosting consumption and health [13][14]. - The company anticipates that the restructuring of the dairy value chain will enhance operational efficiency and profitability in the upcoming strategic cycle [14].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Views - The current value of domestic demand is highlighted, with a focus on companies with strong financial reports and sustained fundamentals. New consumption trends favor snacks, while traditional consumption is recommended for companies showing signs of recovery. The report emphasizes the strategy of "fishing in the domestic demand safe haven" and suggests prioritizing leading companies in the industry [1][23] - The report indicates that the liquor sector is in a transitional year for 2025, with a focus on companies with good fundamentals or those undergoing effective reforms. The report also highlights investment opportunities in snack companies and seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors [1][2] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest of the year. The report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and reasonable growth targets. The report suggests that the current external uncertainties, such as tariffs, enhance the value of domestic demand for liquor, potentially leading to a structural bull market in the sector [2][23] - Key recommendations include high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as regional brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu. The report also emphasizes the importance of "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery" strategies [2][23] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a rebound, with a focus on snack companies benefiting from category dividends and new product launches in membership stores. The report continues to recommend seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors, highlighting investment opportunities driven by retail transformation and cost cycles [1][27] - Recommended stocks include Salted Fish, Yili, Wanchen Group, Dongpeng Beverage, Qingdao Beer (A+H), Three Squirrels, and others [1][27] Performance Metrics - The liquor industry saw a revenue growth of 7.7% and a net profit growth of 7.56% in 2024. In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue growth of 1.8% and a net profit growth of 2.25%. The report suggests that the industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with leading companies successfully navigating pressure tests [7][19] - Specific company performance includes Kweichow Moutai achieving a revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a growth of 10.67%, and a net profit of 268.47 billion yuan, a growth of 11.56% [17] Market Trends - The report notes that the overall valuation of the food and beverage industry has adjusted, with the industry trading at 21.79 times earnings. The liquor sector's valuation is at 19.69 times, while beer and wine are at 27.67 and 74.88 times, respectively [39] - The report also tracks price trends for key liquor brands, indicating stability in prices for Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [22][54]

Group 1: Company Performance - Yili Group reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.464 billion yuan for 2024, with a first-quarter revenue of 33.018 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.35% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring items, reached 4.629 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 24.19% [1] - Yili Group aims to achieve a total revenue of 119 billion yuan and a total profit of 12.6 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and 24.4% respectively, focusing on functional nutrition and deep processing of dairy products [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The tourism market is evolving, with an increasing number of tourists opting for less popular destinations, leading to a rise in demand for unique cultural experiences during the May Day holiday [3] - The hotel occupancy rate for Wanda Hotels and Resorts in lesser-known destinations reached over 90%, showing a year-on-year increase of more than 15 percentage points [3] - The film industry experienced a total box office of 738 million yuan during the May Day holiday period, despite a year-on-year decline compared to 2024, indicating a recovery in social activities such as family outings and couple dates [4]

Core Viewpoint - The first insurance-backed private equity fund in China, Honghu Zhiyuan, has disclosed its A-share holdings, indicating a significant entry of long-term capital into the market with an expected total of approximately 112 billion yuan from the second batch of insurance-backed private equity funds [1][5]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Holdings - As of the end of Q1 2025, Honghu Zhiyuan has heavily invested in three A-share stocks: Yili Group, Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, and China Telecom, with notable increases in holdings for Yili and Shaanxi Coal compared to the end of the previous year [3][4]. - The fund has achieved performance metrics that are lower in risk and higher in returns than benchmarks, with the first phase of 50 billion yuan fully invested by early March 2025 [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Characteristics - The selected stocks are characterized by high dividend yields and strong industry leadership, aligning with the insurance capital's need for stable returns and risk diversification [4][6]. - Shaanxi Coal has a dividend yield exceeding 7%, Yili Group over 4%, and China Telecom plans to increase cash distributions to 75% of its profits over the next three years, providing stable cash flow [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Future Prospects - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has approved a second batch of long-term stock investment trials, allowing eight insurance companies to access a total of 112 billion yuan for long-term stock investments [5][6]. - New private equity funds are being established, such as the proposed Honghu Zhiyuan Phase II, which aims to invest in large A+H shares that meet specific governance and operational criteria [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 36.33 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 21 times the earnings for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company faced profit pressure in 2024 due to goodwill impairment, with a reported revenue of 115.39 billion CNY, down 8.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.45 billion CNY, down 18.9% year-on-year. However, the performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 32.94 billion CNY, up 1.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.87 billion CNY, down 17.7% year-on-year, but showing a 31% increase when excluding prior year investment gains [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to generate revenues of 121.41 billion CNY in 2025, 128.33 billion CNY in 2026, and 137.19 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2%, 5.7%, and 6.9% respectively [3]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover to 11.02 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth of 30.3%, followed by 12.52 billion CNY in 2026 and 13.83 billion CNY in 2027 [3]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be 1.73 CNY in 2025, 1.97 CNY in 2026, and 2.17 CNY in 2027 [2][9]. - **Margins**: The gross margin is expected to improve to 34.3% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to be 9.1% [3][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of April 30, 2025, was 29.76 CNY, with a 52-week high of 31.96 CNY and a low of 21.13 CNY. The current dividend yield stands at 4.2% based on a proposed cash dividend of 1.22 CNY per share [4][8].

公司点评 | 盈利弹性超预期 | | --- | ——伊利股份 24 年报及 25Q1 点评 伊利股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600887） 主要观点： ⚫ 收入：液奶降幅收窄明显 ⚫ 盈利：成本红利+产品结构优化 ⚫ 投资建议：维持"买入" ➢ 我们的观点： 经过 24 年渠道库存去化，公司今年经营基础更加稳健，Q1 报表已 有较好反馈，随着 Q2 低基数来临，公司业绩有望逐季修复，全年 [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -33% -18% -4% 11% 26% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 伊利股份 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 邮箱：zhengshaoxuan@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.伊利股份 24Q3：渠道调整初见成 效 2024-10-31 2.聚焦长期，H2 有望环比改善 2024- 09-01 敬请参阅末页重要 ...