Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the gold stocks have collectively strengthened due to rising risk aversion, driven by disappointing U.S. non-farm employment data, which has led to an increase in gold prices [1][2] - The non-farm employment report indicated an increase of 73,000 jobs in July, below the market expectation of 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [1] - The gold price surged by $40 following the non-farm data release, closing at $3,363 per ounce, erasing previous losses [2] Group 2 - The long-term outlook suggests that the combination of "rate cut trades" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to catalyze gold prices through 2025, with central bank purchases providing strong support [3] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand is expected to reach 4,974 tons in 2024, a 1.5% increase from 4,899 tons in 2023, driven by strong central bank purchases and investment demand [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 49.71% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Shandong Gold [4]

港股黄金股走高，招金矿业、山东黄金涨超7%，灵宝黄金、中国黄金国际涨超5%，老铺黄金、紫金矿 业涨超3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Mining has reported a significant turnaround in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in net profit driven by strong contributions from its investment in Jilong Copper and improved performance in its potash fertilizer business [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Cangge Mining achieved operating revenue of 1.678 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 4.74% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.8 billion yuan, marking a 38.80% increase [2][3]. - The company’s net profit and non-recurring net profit both returned to growth after two years of decline, with the latter increasing by 41.55% [2][3]. - The quarterly breakdown shows that in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, operating revenues were 552 million yuan and 1.126 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 747 million yuan and 1.053 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [2]. Business Segments - Cangge Mining's core revenue driver is its potash fertilizer business, which generated 1.399 billion yuan in revenue, a 24.60% increase, supported by a 25.57% rise in average domestic prices [3][5]. - The company produced 485,200 tons of potassium chloride and sold 535,900 tons, achieving 48.52% and 56.41% of its annual targets, respectively [3]. Investment and Dividends - Cangge Mining plans to distribute a substantial interim dividend of 1.57 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of 87.14% of its net profit [1][7]. - The company’s financial health is strong, with a debt-to-asset ratio of only 7.03% as of June 30 [8]. Market Performance - Since September 2024, Cangge Mining's stock price has doubled, reflecting positive market sentiment [9]. - Institutional investors, including Lu Stock Connect and several securities firms, have increased their holdings in Cangge Mining [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of the recent 232 tariffs on copper, which do not include refined copper, leading to a significant drop in US copper prices. The week saw a decline in copper prices with LME copper down 2.51%, SHFE copper down 1.07%, and US copper down 23.45% [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the recovery in downstream copper demand, with the copper rod operating rate increasing by 2.36 percentage points to 71.73% [5]. - The report suggests monitoring the supply disruptions in Chile and the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes lower-than-expected job vacancies in the US and mixed employment data, indicating a cautious economic outlook [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index down 4.62%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.68 percentage points [12]. 2. Industrial Metals Copper - LME copper prices fell by 2.51%, while SHFE copper prices decreased by 1.07%. LME copper inventory increased by 10.33% [26]. - The report notes a copper smelting profit of -2408 CNY/ton, indicating a narrowing loss [26]. Aluminum - LME aluminum prices dropped by 4.12%, and SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.33%. The report indicates a decrease in aluminum smelting profit to 4116 CNY/ton, down 7.71% [37]. Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 3.30%, and SHFE lead prices fell by 1.48%. LME zinc prices dropped by 4.59%, while SHFE zinc prices decreased by 2.19% [52]. - The report highlights a smelting profit of 346 CNY/ton for zinc, with mining profits down 6.47% to 6884 CNY/ton [52]. Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 5.10%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 2.47%. LME nickel prices dropped by 4.08%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 2.83% [66]. 3. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices decreased by 2.13% to 71350 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices increased by 4.04% to 65670 CNY/ton [83]. - The report indicates a smelting profit of 862 CNY/ton for lithium from spodumene, while the profit from lithium from lepidolite was -4608 CNY/ton [83]. Cobalt - Domestic cobalt prices surged by 11.29% to 276000 CNY/ton, with significant increases in cobalt smelting profits [96]. 4. Market Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of various non-ferrous metal stocks, highlighting the top gainers and losers in the market [12]. 5. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the PE_TTM for the non-ferrous sector is 20.54, with a decrease of 0.88, while the PB_LF is 2.37, down 0.11 [21].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the basic metals sector, with copper and aluminum prices experiencing downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and weak demand [4][10][20] - Precious metals are expected to see upward movement in gold prices driven by recession fears and adjustments in U.S. economic data [6][24] - The report highlights the stability in the rare earth sector, with expectations for improved fundamentals in the upcoming quarter [8] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Price has retreated to 78,170 CNY/ton, with low inventory providing some support despite seasonal demand weakness [4][13] - Aluminum: Prices have decreased, with the average price at 20,623 CNY/ton, influenced by rising social inventory and subdued market demand [5][20] - Precious Metals: Gold price averaged 767.63 CNY/gram, down 1.67%, while silver averaged 9,158 CNY/kg, down 1.44% [6][24] 2. Minor Metals - Antimony: Prices remain stable, with market dynamics showing limited supply and demand [7][40] - Lithium: Carbonate prices have dropped, reflecting a cooling market sentiment [40] - Cobalt: Prices are strong due to tight supply conditions, with cobalt intermediate prices rising [42][43] - Tin: Prices have declined, with the average price at 33,410 USD/ton, reflecting weakened macro sentiment [45] - Tungsten: Prices have increased across the board, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 195,500 CNY/ton [51] - Molybdenum: Prices have surged, with molybdenum concentrate averaging 4,315 CNY/ton, driven by strong market demand [61][62] 3. Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are stable, with light rare earth oxide prices increasing by 3.3% to 531,000 CNY/ton, indicating a potential for significant improvement in fundamentals [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly emphasizing investment opportunities in precious metals [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant adjustments in U.S. employment data, suggesting a shift in focus towards precious metal investments due to increased economic uncertainty [4]. - It notes a decline in various metal prices, with precious metals experiencing a mixed performance, while industrial metals face downward pressure due to seasonal demand and tariff impacts [5][10]. - The report suggests that the central bank's continued gold purchases indicate a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, with specific companies recommended for investment [5][22]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%, while the Shenzhen Component and CSI 300 Index dropped by 1.58% and 1.75%, respectively. The non-ferrous metals index underperformed, decreasing by 4.62% [6]. - Precious metals saw a 4.11% decline, with industrial metals like aluminum and copper also experiencing significant drops [10]. - Year-to-date performance shows precious metals up by 30.47%, indicating a strong recovery potential despite recent declines [10]. Price Changes and Company Valuations - The report details price changes for various metals, with copper, aluminum, and lead showing declines of 1.42%, 2.64%, and 2.11%, respectively, while gold prices increased by 2.32% [15]. - Key companies in the industry are evaluated, with specific price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios provided for major players like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [19][20]. Precious Metals Analysis - The report indicates that the U.S. non-farm payrolls data has created a favorable environment for gold investments, with central bank purchases expected to support price increases [22]. - The gold ETF holdings have slightly decreased, but the overall sentiment remains positive due to ongoing purchases by the Chinese central bank [22]. Industrial Metals Overview - Copper supply is under pressure due to increased tariffs on imports, while demand remains stable with slight increases in production rates [33]. - Aluminum prices have decreased, but the report anticipates a long-term upward trend due to supply constraints and policy support [49]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential in the metals sector, particularly those involved in gold mining and aluminum production [5][19].

Macro Analysis - The political bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, appeared "plain," but it reflects a stable economic outlook for the first half of 2025, aligning with expectations[5] - The meeting confirmed a consistent policy direction since September 2024, indicating effective policy tools and measures[5] - Short-term pressures are manageable, allowing for strategic focus on domestic demand, reform, risk mitigation, and improving living standards[5] Investment Strategy - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, favoring both financial and resource sectors while also targeting growth opportunities in AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals[10] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.75% due to low inflation and interest rates[10] - Gold is projected to benefit from "de-dollarization" and debt monetization in the long term, despite short-term fluctuations due to currency appreciation[10] Company Performance Highlights - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) anticipates a 6% increase in copper production to 1.07 million tons in 2024, with a target of 1.5-1.6 million tons by 2028[11] - Shandong Gold (600547.SH) expects a 10.51% increase in gold production to 46.17 tons in 2024, driven by improved mining operations and resource acquisitions[15] - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) reported a 14.69% increase in revenue to CNY 156.17 billion in 2024, with net profit rising by 95.21% to CNY 22.37 billion, supported by rising alumina prices[16] Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential underperformance of policies, slower economic recovery, and significant price drops in metals like gold and copper[7] - The performance of companies like GuoBo Electronics (688375.SH) is under pressure due to declining revenues, with a 27.36% drop in total revenue to CNY 2.591 billion[32] - WanHua Chemical (600309.SH) faces short-term profit pressures due to asset impairments and market fluctuations, with a projected net profit margin of 8.1% in 2025[36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [4][6][10]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in the probability of interest rate cuts, which has led to rising prices for both industrial and precious metals. The macroeconomic environment is expected to support metal prices in the second half of the year [2][4]. - Industrial metals are anticipated to benefit from ongoing macroeconomic policy support in China, with a focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and continued investment in infrastructure [2][4]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to see a long-term upward trend due to central bank purchases and weakening US dollar credit [4][6]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices have been affected by the US imposing a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper, leading to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices. However, domestic demand is showing signs of recovery with an increase in the operating rate of copper rod enterprises to 71.73% [2][4]. - Aluminum production capacity remains stable, but demand is weak due to seasonal factors, with social inventory increasing to 544,000 tons [2][4]. - Key companies recommended include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2][4]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to the impact of the Democratic Republic of Congo's mining ban, while lithium prices have seen a rapid decline amid cautious market sentiment [3][4]. - Nickel prices are projected to remain strong due to low inventory levels and increased purchasing activity from downstream sectors [3][4]. - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt and Zangge Mining [3][4]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to strong central bank purchases and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with the report highlighting a long-term upward trend for gold prices [4][6]. - Silver prices are also expected to increase, driven by industrial demand and recovery in the market [4][6]. - Key companies recommended include Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Zijin Mining [4][6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance and holdings of the Huatai-PineBridge State-Owned Enterprise Innovation Stock A fund, which has shown a recent decline in returns [1] - The fund's latest net value is 1.5650 yuan, with a weekly return of -1.51%, a three-month return of 4.54%, and a year-to-date return of -1.82% [1] - The fund was established on July 10, 2015, and as of June 30, 2025, it has a total scale of 376 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The top ten stock holdings of the fund include Zijin Mining, China Merchants Bank, Yangtze Power, CATL, COSCO Shipping Holdings, Northern Huachuang, Juhua Co., XCMG, Hangzhou Bank, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [1] - The combined proportion of the top ten holdings accounts for 53.85% of the fund's total assets [1]

Core Insights - The Invesco Great Wall Hong Kong Stock Connect Global Competitiveness C Fund (012228) has a latest net value of 0.8108 yuan, with a weekly return of -3.14%, a three-month return of 6.14%, and a year-to-date return of 17.87% [1] - The fund was established on August 12, 2021, and managed by Zhou Hanying, with a total scale of 250 million yuan as of June 30, 2025 [1] - The top ten stock holdings of the fund include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, Pop Mart, Xiaomi Group-W, Giant Bio, Zijin Mining, NetEase Cloud Music, China Pacific Insurance, SMIC, and SF Holding, accounting for a total of 47.14% of the portfolio [1]