Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic lithium carbonate production and inventory are at high levels with a loose supply - demand outlook, but due to national policies guiding capacity clearance and expectations of automobile consumption stimulus, the prices of domestic and imported lithium concentrates have risen, suggesting that lithium carbonate prices may still have room to rise. It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract with a light position in the short - term, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [3]. - The basis of lithium carbonate is positive and generally within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is positive and also within a reasonable range. This is due to the continuation of domestic new - energy vehicle consumption stimulus policies. However, the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand outlook remains loose, so investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side Lithium Concentrate - Ganfeng Lithium's Mali Goulamina lithium spodumene project phase I with an annual capacity of 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate was officially put into production in July, and Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes lithium mine's 520,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, increasing the total capacity to 2.14 million tons per year. However, the daily prices of domestic and imported lithium ores have increased [9]. - Domestic lithium concentrate production in July may decrease month - on - month, while imports may increase [2][10][12]. Lithium Carbonate - The capacity utilization rate and production of domestic lithium carbonate have decreased compared to last week. However, with the possible commissioning of Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 6,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate capacity in July 2025 and Zijin Liyuan's 25,000 - ton capacity for preparing battery - grade lithium carbonate from crude carbon by December 2025, the production of domestic lithium carbonate (industrial and battery - grade) in July may increase month - on - month, and the supply outlook is loose [26]. - The import window is closed, and the import volume of Chinese lithium carbonate in July may decrease month - on - month [33]. - The daily cash production costs of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica concentrates are about 61,700 and 66,500 yuan/ton respectively, resulting in negative production profits. The quarterly production profits of producing lithium carbonate from integrated lithium spodumene/mica/salt - lake sources are positive [18][22]. Lithium Hydroxide - The daily cash production costs of Chinese smelting (causticizing) method lithium hydroxide are 56,900 (64,600) yuan/ton, with positive (negative) production profits. The monthly processing fee from coarse - grained to fine - grained lithium hydroxide has decreased [37][38]. - Yahua Group plans to build a 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide production line by the end of 2025, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production of Chinese lithium hydroxide (smelting and causticizing methods) in July. The inventory of Chinese lithium hydroxide (smelters and downstream) in July may increase month - on - month [42][51]. - The daily export profit of Chinese lithium hydroxide is negative, so the export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide in July may decrease month - on - month [47]. Demand Side - The production volume of Chinese lithium iron phosphate (lithium manganese iron phosphate) in July may increase month - on - month [59]. - The production (import) volume of Chinese nickel sulfate in July may increase month - on - month [60]. - The production volume of Chinese lithium cobalt oxide in July may increase month - on - month [64]. - The production volume of Chinese lithium manganate in July may increase month - on - month [74]. - The monthly processing fee of Chinese ternary precursors has decreased month - on - month. The monthly production cost of producing ternary precursors from purchased raw materials is 79,450 yuan/ton, with negative production profits. The production volume of Chinese ternary precursors in July may increase month - on - month [80][82]. - The monthly processing fee of Chinese ternary materials has decreased month - on - month. The monthly average production cost of polycrystalline consumer - grade 5 - series ternary materials is 107,600 yuan/ton, with negative production profits. The inventory of Chinese ternary material factories has increased compared to last week, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production of Chinese ternary materials in July [91][94]. - The production (shipment and inventory) volume of Chinese energy - storage cells in July may decrease (decrease, increase) month - on - month; the production (shipment and inventory) volume of Chinese power cells in July may increase (increase, increase) month - on - month [3]. Investment Strategy - Short - term investors are advised to go long on the main contract with a light position at low prices, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [3]. - Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the 400MW/1600MWh independent shared energy storage station by Ganfeng Group in Shanxi is a significant step towards enhancing local renewable energy consumption and stabilizing the power grid [1][2]. Investment and Financial Summary - The total investment for the project is 2 billion yuan, with an expected annual revenue of 300 million yuan [2]. - Upon completion, the project is projected to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by over 500,000 tons annually, equivalent to the carbon sequestration benefits of approximately 2,800 hectares of forest [2]. Technology and Innovation - The project utilizes Ganfeng's advanced 5MWh energy storage container system, featuring domestically developed high-cycle, long-life next-generation dual-layer coated 314Ah lithium iron phosphate battery cells [2]. - The energy storage system incorporates Ganfeng's proprietary liquid cooling and fully automated linkage fire protection system [2]. Policy and Market Context - The project aligns with the recent policy developments in Shanxi, including the 136th document which outlines pricing mechanisms for energy storage and the focus on new power system construction [4].

Group 1: New Energy Vehicle Industry - The China Securities New Energy Vehicle Industry Index (930997) increased by 0.39%, with key stocks like Defu Technology (301511) rising by 3.57% and Huayou Cobalt (603799) by 2.92% [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments announced plans to establish over 100,000 high-power charging facilities by the end of 2027, aiming for improved service quality and technology upgrades [1] - CITIC Securities forecasts that domestic electric vehicle sales will reach 16.52 million units in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15-22% expected in 2026 [2] Group 2: Photovoltaic Industry - The China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index (931151) rose by 0.15%, with major stocks like Sungrow Power (300274) increasing by 1.62% [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the photovoltaic index account for 55.39% of the total index, indicating a concentrated market [9] Group 3: Automotive Parts Industry - The China Securities Automotive Parts Theme Index (931230) increased by 0.29%, with stocks like Zhengmei Machinery (601717) rising by 2.51% [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the automotive parts index represent 41.05% of the total index, highlighting key players in the sector [9] Group 4: New Materials Industry - The China Securities New Materials Theme Index (H30597) rose by 0.50%, with stocks like Yake Technology (002409) increasing by 4.58% [6] - The top ten weighted stocks in the new materials index account for 51.27% of the total index, showcasing significant contributors to the industry [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the lithium sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [6]. Core Insights - The lithium price has shown continuous growth, rising from 59,000 CNY/ton to 64,000 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 8.1% since June 23 [10]. - Supply-side signals indicate a reduction in output from Australian mines, suggesting that the industry is in the later stages of capacity clearance [2]. - Demand remains robust, with significant growth in the lithium battery production and electric vehicle sales, supporting a favorable price transmission for lithium [3]. Supply Summary - Australian lithium mines are signaling reduced output, with production expected to remain flat at 740,000 tons in Q1 2025, down 17% from the previous quarter [2]. - The current pricing has reached a sensitive cost level for Australian producers, leading to operational adjustments and cost-cutting measures [2]. - The low lithium prices have resulted in a squeeze on capital expenditures, potentially leading to a slowdown in supply growth in the future [2]. Demand Summary - The lithium battery industry is experiencing high growth, with domestic battery production reaching 801 GWh in the first half of 2025, a 52% year-on-year increase [26]. - Electric vehicle sales in China reached 5.42 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 32% increase compared to the previous year [26]. - The competitive landscape in the electric vehicle sector is prompting manufacturers to initiate a "de-involution" process to stabilize pricing and improve profitability across the supply chain [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with low-cost resource supply and diversified non-lithium operations will have a competitive advantage in the current market [4]. - Recommended stocks include Zhongkuang Resources, Yongxing Materials, Salt Lake Co., Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are expected to navigate the industry downturn effectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to the interplay of the 232 investigation and interest rate cut expectations, with recent price changes showing a mixed trend [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low inventory levels in supporting copper prices, while also noting the potential impact of the 232 copper import investigation and upcoming interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining for investment opportunities [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. employment data, which may influence market conditions [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Recent price movements show LME copper up by 0.25%, while SHFE copper is down by 0.24% [25]. - Inventory levels for copper have increased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.41%, with inventory levels also rising [35]. - The report notes a decrease in aluminum smelting profits, attributed to rising costs [35]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a slight increase, while zinc prices have decreased [48]. - Inventory levels for both metals are discussed, highlighting market supply conditions [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have decreased slightly, while nickel prices have shown an upward trend [62]. - The report discusses profitability metrics for nickel producers in both domestic and international markets [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have shown a slight rebound, with specific price changes noted for lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [74]. - The report indicates that supply-side adjustments are anticipated, which may affect future pricing [74]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased domestically due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may create supply constraints [86]. - The report highlights the profitability of domestic cobalt refining operations [86].

Core Viewpoint - The industrialization of solid-state batteries requires a collaborative innovation across the entire material system, focusing on the reconstruction of the electrochemical environment within the battery [1] Group 1: Solid-State Battery Materials - The iteration of cathode materials is crucial for achieving performance breakthroughs in solid-state batteries, with companies like Rongbai Technology advancing their first-generation 8-series ternary materials to ton-level verification, matching the cost of liquid batteries [2] - The second-generation 9-series ultra-high nickel materials with a capacity greater than 230mAh/g have been shipped to major clients, while the third-generation lithium-rich manganese-based materials (capacity > 300mAh/g) are in joint development, aiming for small batch shipments by 2025 [2] - Xiamen Tungsten's new "NL" cathode material structure shows significant improvements in energy density and rate performance due to its stable structure and wider interlayer spacing [2] Group 2: Cost Reduction and Production Capacity - The use of inexpensive metals instead of precious metals in materials presents significant long-term cost reduction potential, with current production capacity at the kiloton level, primarily targeting low-altitude economy and 3C consumer sectors [3] - Hunan Enjie, a subsidiary of Enjie Co., is innovating in the solid-state battery sector by adopting a "one-step" carbon thermal reduction process to produce high-purity lithium sulfide, with a hundred-ton production capacity established [3] - Enjie predicts that the price of lithium sulfide may drop to 500,000 yuan per ton within the next 3-5 years [3] Group 3: Electrolyte Development - Enjie is building a full-chain advantage from "electrolyte powder" to "electrolyte film," with a high ionic conductivity of 6mS/cm for its nanometer-level sulfide electrolyte powder and plans for a kiloton production line [4] - Xiamen Tungsten is developing a unique lithium sulfide synthesis process, claiming significant advantages in purity and cost, and is preparing to promote it to domestic and international clients [4] - Rongbai Technology is also actively developing optimized particle size distribution for sulfide electrolytes, with pilot verification planned for the fourth quarter of the same year [4] Group 4: Supporting Materials and Integration - BlueTing New Energy has introduced metal-organic framework (MOF) materials, which enhance lithium-ion conduction and extend the cycle life of solid-state batteries by 30-50% [4] - BlueTing has combined MOF with inorganic electrolytes to define a "super solid-state electrolyte (SSE)" and has formed strategic partnerships with electrolyte companies to provide interface solutions for mainstream technology routes [5] - Ganfeng Lithium, as a "full-stack integrator," has achieved milestone breakthroughs in battery cells, realizing small batch production of lithium metal batteries with an energy density of 500Wh/kg [6] Group 5: Market Applications - Ganfeng is expanding the application of semi-solid and solid-state batteries from electric vehicles to low-altitude economy aircraft and high-end consumer electronics, showcasing a complete closed-loop from materials to commercialization [6]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium has successfully completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, gaining 100% ownership, which enhances its lithium resource supply and profitability [2]. Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium delivered the full payment for the acquisition of Mali Lithium shares and completed the equity transfer [2]. - Mali Lithium's Goulamina lithium spodumene project has commenced production with an annual capacity of 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate [2]. - The establishment of a shipping route for lithium ore exports from Mali to China marks a significant step in Ganfeng Lithium's resource layout in Africa, leading to stable and high-quality lithium resource supply [2].

Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding expectations for the fourth consecutive month[12] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market despite economic slowdown[12] - The healthcare sector added 59,000 jobs, marking the lowest increase in four months[12] Market Reactions - A-shares showed a strong performance with the Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 1.17% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.9%[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, closing at 3,461.15 points[1] - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.63%, closing at 24,069.94 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.67%[1] Trade and Tariffs - President Trump may begin notifying countries of new tariff rates as early as Friday, intensifying trade negotiations[12] - The European Union aims to reach a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. before July 9[12] Investment Trends - Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale announced a direct subsidy of 50 billion RMB over the next 12 months to stimulate consumer spending[14] - China National Building Material issued 1 billion RMB in tech innovation bonds, with an oversubscription of 2.71 times[14]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market for photovoltaic and lithium battery concept stocks opened high, with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (宁德时代) rising over 4% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. (赣锋锂业) opened with an increase of over 1% [1]