Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [4]. Core Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with the EIA predicting a global surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day for this year [6][16]. - The EIA has adjusted its 2026 oil price forecast upward to an average of $56 per barrel, while lowering the natural gas price forecast to $3.46 per million British thermal units [7][11]. - The IEA expects a demand increase of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, while OPEC and EIA have slightly reduced their demand forecasts [11][16]. Supply and Demand Summary - The EIA has raised its global oil supply forecast for this year by 120,000 barrels per day, while the IEA has increased its forecast by 100,000 barrels per day [13][16]. - The EIA anticipates that global oil production will rise by 1.37 million barrels per day in 2026, with OPEC+ contributing approximately 1.13 million barrels per day [15][16]. - The IEA projects a global oil supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [16]. Price Trends Summary - The price of butadiene has surged over 28% since the beginning of the year, driven by a narrowing price spread between naphtha and ethylene [17]. - As of January 23, the spot price of butadiene reached 10,700 yuan per ton [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and improving market conditions [21]. - It suggests monitoring major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as refining margins are expected to improve [21]. - The report also highlights the potential of offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering, given the high capital expenditure in offshore exploration [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in demand during the peak season, leading to sustained strong prices for pork. It anticipates a new cycle of prosperity in the livestock industry driven by the resonance between meat and dairy sectors [3][4]. - The report suggests that major meat protein prices (pork, chicken, beef, eggs, and aquatic products) are expected to bottom out and rise in 2026. The efficiency differences among pig farming enterprises will be crucial in determining profitability levels for the year [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the meat chicken industry, after a prolonged downturn of 3-4 years, is likely to gradually emerge from its cyclical bottom due to improvements in demand [3][4]. - The beef and raw milk sectors are projected to reach a supply-demand balance after ongoing capacity reductions, marking a turning point for the cycle [3][4]. - The edible mushroom sector is expected to see significant improvements in industry structure after 2-3 years of capacity clearance, with early investments in the second growth curve beginning to yield results [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 0.4%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.6%. The top five gainers included Fujian Jinsen (15.7%), Hainan Rubber (15.5%), and Wancheng Group (14.3) [3][4]. - The report recommends focusing on growth opportunities and suggests stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Dekang Animal Husbandry, and Wen's Foodstuffs [3][4]. Livestock Sector - In the beef sector, prices for beef cattle, calves, and beef have seen slight increases, indicating the beginning of a long-term upward trend. The average price for fattening bulls was 25.66 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.25% [3][4]. - The report notes that the supply of beef cattle is expected to decrease, with a projected output of 51.33 million heads in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [3][4]. Swine Farming - The report indicates that the price of live pigs remains strong due to seasonal stocking demands, with the average price for external three-line pigs at 13.03 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.66% [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the price of weaned piglets, which reached an average of 352 CNY/head, up by 45 CNY/head week-on-week [3][4]. Poultry Farming - The white feather broiler market is characterized by an oversupply, leading to a decline in chick prices. The average price for white feather broiler chicks was 1.87 CNY/chick, down 28.6% week-on-week [3][4]. - The report suggests that the continued oversupply of white chickens will be a key theme in 2026, with a focus on the development and long-term value of leading enterprises [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, particularly on premium brands like Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also highlighting the potential of other brands such as Wuliangye and Jinjing Wine [2][7]. Core Insights - The liquor market is undergoing a restructuring phase, with expectations of a double-digit decline in sales year-on-year for Q1 2026, but a potential stabilization in Q2 and a turning point in Q3 [2][7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the liquor sector by the end of 2026 and into 2027, driven by improved fundamentals and valuation [2][7]. - The consumer goods sector is showing structural improvements, with competition shifting from price to quality, leading to a gradual balance in supply and demand [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.41% last week, with liquor down 2.80%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.25 percentage points [6]. - Notable stock performances included a 19.59% increase for Haoxiangni and a 14.32% rise for Wancheng Group [6]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report highlights the price stability of Moutai, with a current price of 1560 RMB per bottle, up 20 RMB from the previous week, indicating a positive trend in pricing [8][27]. - The report notes that Moutai's pricing has found a bottom, reducing downward risks significantly, and anticipates a potential increase in sales volume as the Spring Festival approaches [8]. 3. Industry Events and Updates - The report mentions the upcoming IPO of Mingming Hen Mang, a leading snack retail chain, which is expected to catalyze the snack sector [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain management and digitalization in enhancing competitive advantages for companies like Mingming Hen Mang [10]. 4. Valuation Table - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is currently at 19.27x, with a premium rate of 10%, while the liquor sector's dynamic PE stands at 17.50x, indicating a zero premium [27].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the pharmaceutical sector, with a focus on investment opportunities in the CXO segment and AI pharmaceutical development [2][3]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector's performance has been mixed, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index declining by 0.4% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84% [4][6]. - The report highlights the ongoing transformation in China's pharmaceutical retail industry, emphasizing the shift from traditional drug sales to comprehensive health services, supported by government initiatives [13][14]. - New drug development remains active, with several significant clinical trial applications and promising results from innovative therapies, particularly in oncology and AI-driven drug discovery [15][16][17]. Market Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index ranked 27th among 31 Shenwan first-level sub-industries, with a current overall valuation of 30.3 times earnings, placing it 12th among all first-level industries [4][6]. - Various sub-sectors showed differing performance, with raw materials (+2.4%) and offline pharmacies (+9.7%) performing well, while medical research outsourcing (-4.0%) and chemical preparations (-1.7%) faced declines [6][8]. Recent Key Events - The report notes the significant population dynamics in China, with a total population of approximately 1.40489 billion by the end of 2025, which continues to support economic growth [12]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued guidelines to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail sector, focusing on enhancing service capabilities and optimizing industry structure [13][14]. - Several companies, including BaiLi Tianheng and Moderna, have made strides in drug development, with notable advancements in cancer therapies and AI applications in pharmaceuticals [15][16][17]. Company Dynamics - The report identifies several companies with promising performance forecasts for 2025, including WuXi AppTec, Kanglong Chemical, and Tigermed, highlighting their potential as investment targets [23][26]. - The AI healthcare platform OpenEvidence successfully raised $250 million in Series D funding, reflecting strong growth and increasing adoption among healthcare professionals [23][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing competition in the AI application space, with major companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance vying for dominance in the domestic AI super entrance battle. This competition is expected to drive up transaction sentiment in AI applications [4][6]. - Pop Mart's recent buybacks and the success of its PUCKY "electronic wooden fish" and Valentine's Day series have alleviated market concerns about its reliance on the Labubu IP. The company's multi-IP strategy and global channel expansion are seen as key to its success [4][6]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is anticipated to boost the film and gaming sectors, with several films scheduled for release and optimistic expectations for AI-integrated content production [4][6]. Summary by Sections AI Applications - The report notes a resurgence in AI application interest, with significant developments from companies like Baidu and Alibaba. The competition among major players is expected to catalyze growth in AI applications [4][6]. Pop Mart - Pop Mart has executed two buybacks totaling approximately 350 million HKD, and the strong sales of its new products have reduced market fears regarding its IP dependency. The company's strategy of expanding its IP portfolio and global reach is validated [4][6]. Film and Gaming - The report outlines several films set for release during the Spring Festival, including "Flying Life 3" and "Biao Ren: Wind Rises in the Desert." The integration of AI in content production is expected to enhance the industry's growth, with projections indicating that the AI comic market could reach 22 billion RMB by 2026 [4][6]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalization, revenue forecasts, and profit margins. For instance, Tencent's market cap is 48,677 million RMB, with projected revenues of 8,453 million RMB for 2026, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth [6].

品研究 /公司书 钱行 2026 年 01 月 25 日 招商银行 (600036) 稳健高股息优势突出,聚焦红利逻辑下估值修复弹性 报告原因： 有业绩公布需要点评 | 21 | (1)+++) | | --- | --- | | 1 | - 10 1 - 1 - J P 1 | | 市场数据: 2026 年 01 月 23 日 | | --- | | 收盘价（元） 37.50 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） 48.55/37.38 | | 市净率 0.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） 8.03 | | 773,585 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) | | 上证指数/深证成指 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 43.21 | | 资产负债率% | 89.92 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 25,220/20,629 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/4.591 | 年内股价与大盘对比走势： 招商银行 · 沪深300指数 · 治 证券分析师 申万宏源研究微信服务号 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local bonds in the current period have increased month-on-month, and it is expected that the issuance and net financing of local bonds in the next period will rise significantly month-on-month [2] - The issuance progress of new general bonds this year is slower than the same period in previous years, but the issuance of new special bonds has significantly accelerated since late January [2] - The planned issuance scale of local bonds in Q1 2026 is equivalent to that in the same period in 2025. The issuance of refinancing bonds in Q1 2026 may be similar to that in Q1 2025, with the front-loading of refinancing bond issuance boosting the increase in local bond issuance, but the proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale is larger in January and March 2026 compared to previous years [2] - The current 10Y local bonds still have certain cost-effectiveness [2] Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local bonds in the current period has increased, and the weighted issuance term has shortened - The total issuance/net financing of local bonds in the current period (January 19 - January 25, 2026) is 231.57 billion yuan/203.16 billion yuan (74.841 billion yuan/68.566 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing in the next period (January 26 - February 1, 2026) is 439.275 billion yuan/310.854 billion yuan [2] - The weighted issuance term of local bonds in the current period is 15.88 years, shorter than 19.45 years in the previous period (January 12 - January 18, 2026) [2] - As of January 23, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounts for 2.7% and 4.0% of the annual quota respectively, and 7.6% and 8.4% considering the expected issuance in the next period [2] - The planned issuance scale of local bonds in Q1 2026 is 235.87 billion yuan, equivalent to that in the same period in 2025. The issuance of refinancing bonds in Q1 2026 may be similar to that in Q1 2025, with the front-loading of refinancing bond issuance boosting the increase in local bond issuance, but the proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale is larger in January and March 2026 compared to previous years [2] - The special new special bonds in the current period issued 6.3 billion yuan, and the special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts issued 102.3 billion yuan and 0 billion yuan respectively [2] 2. The spread between local bonds and national bonds in the current period has narrowed for 10Y and 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate has increased month-on-month - As of January 23, 2026, the spreads between 10-year and 30-year local bonds and national bonds are 21.02BP and 14.29BP respectively, narrowing by 0.74BP and 3.35BP compared to January 16, 2026, and are at the 60.70% and 50.50% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2] - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds in the current period is 0.66%, up from 0.64% in the previous period [2] - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Liaoning, Ningbo, and Guizhou are better than the national average [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable recovery in demand, with oil prices expected to remain in a range of $55-70 per barrel due to OPEC+ production delays and improved global economic conditions [4][5]. - The report highlights a recovery in spandex prices, an ongoing improvement in titanium dioxide supply and demand, and an anticipated acceleration in dye supply clearance [4][5]. - The investment strategy suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy, including textiles, agriculture, and export chains, with specific company recommendations provided [4][5]. Industry Dynamics - Oil: OPEC+ has delayed production increases, and shale oil production has peaked, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - Spandex: The overall operating rate in the spandex industry has increased from 79% to 87%, with prices rising by 1,000 CNY per ton as of January 20, 2026 [4][5]. - Titanium Dioxide: The closure of production facilities by major companies is expected to improve profitability, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in this sector [4][5]. - Dyes: The price of core intermediates for disperse dyes has increased by over 50%, indicating a potential industry clearance [4][5]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment approach across various chains, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [4][20]. - Key materials for semiconductor and panel manufacturing are emphasized, with recommendations for companies involved in these sectors [4][5]. - The report also notes the importance of focusing on companies that can achieve self-sufficiency in critical materials [4][5].

相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 01 月 25 日 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 地缘紧张避险升温，金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260119-20260123 本期投资提示： 有色金属 究 / 行 业 点 评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行业点评 1．一周行情回顾 据 iFind，总体看，环比上周，上证指数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，沪深 300 下跌 0.62%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 6.03%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.65 个百分点； 20 ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wanqml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 转债眼随小微盘同步活跃 转债周度跟踪 20260123 1. 周观点及展望 ● 申万宏源研究微信服务 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ● 近期小微盘表现活跃，虽然政策层面主动释放降温信号,但小微盛仍受益于流动性宽松, 中证 2000 和万得小微盘指数领涨。和转债风格较为适配，转债对应正股大幅上涨，转债 同步拉升估值,转债百元溢价率和价格中位数等估值指标再创 2017 年新高,结构上来看 表现较强的是 130-140 元、150 元以上价格带，高平价转债表现依旧活跃，次新转债相 对表现不佳。当前权益市场牛市预期已较为一致，资金活跃度较高，转债迎来平价和估值 "双击"行情，但在强股性及高转股溢价率状态下，仍需提防个券强 ...