[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 9 Oct 2025 中国香港美国可选消费 China (A-share) Hong Kong US Discretionary 大消费渠道脉搏：2025 双 11 美妆行业前瞻，抖音与淘天平台策略分化 Consumer Channel Pulse: 2025 Double 11 Beauty Industry Outlook, Divergent Strategies of Douyin and Taobao/Tmall yy.kou@htisec.com mindy.yj.wu@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2025 年 10 月 8 日，海通国际举办专家系列会，邀请美妆品牌操盘专家分享行业看法和趋势。 此次双 11 活动时间延长，核心时间段集中在 10.31 日之前，抖音和淘系平台目标积极。从此次双 11 活动的时间段 来看，抖音平台从 9.16 开 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the retail industry in China [1]. Core Insights - Offline retail performance in South China was under pressure during Q3 2025 and the first three days of Golden Week, with significant year-on-year declines in sales for many brands [10][11]. - International cosmetics brands experienced weak sales, while domestic brand MAOGEPING showed strong performance during the same period [12]. - Sports brands Li-Ning and Anta outperformed NIKE and ADIDAS, achieving double-digit growth, while the latter two saw declines [13]. - Outdoor brands maintained resilient sales, with higher discount levels compared to sports brands, although overall discount levels remained stable year-on-year [14]. Summary by Sections Offline Retail Performance - In Q3 2025, offline retail sales in Guangzhou showed a double-digit decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a slight recovery in sales during the first three days of Golden Week [10]. - The average retail transaction value declined year-on-year, particularly for high-value products and cosmetics, while mid-to-low priced products remained stable [10]. Dining Performance - Dining performance during Golden Week showed divergence, with traditional Cantonese cuisine performing strongly, while Western and Japanese cuisines faced declines [11]. Cosmetics Sales - 70% of international cosmetics brands reported year-on-year sales declines, with DIOR experiencing a double-digit drop, while domestic brand MAOGEPING performed exceptionally well due to strong promotions [12]. Sports Brand Performance - In Q3 2025, NIKE and ADIDAS saw modest growth, while Li-Ning and Anta achieved double-digit growth, attributed to their participation in promotional activities during Golden Week [13]. Outdoor Brand Performance - Sales growth for outdoor brands was led by The North Face and Jack Wolfskin, both achieving double-digit growth, while other brands like Columbia saw mid-to-high single-digit growth [14].

Group 1: Major Events - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown for the first time in seven years due to a failure to pass a temporary funding bill, with a 75% probability of lasting over 15 days according to Polymarket predictions[3] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi Nobuo, is expected to continue the "Abenomics" policy, focusing on aggressive fiscal and monetary measures to stimulate the economy[10] - France's new Prime Minister, Le Cornu, resigned after only 26 days in office, highlighting significant fiscal risks with a projected 2024 budget deficit being the highest in the Eurozone at 113% of GDP[13] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, the largest drop since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000 jobs[8] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.1%, indicating continued contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0%, the lowest since 2010[9] - The Eurozone's CPI rose to 2.2% in September, while core CPI remained stable at 2.3%[35] Group 3: Market Performance - During the holiday period from September 30 to October 7, 2025, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 6.72%, emerging market stocks increased by 2.17%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.39%[15] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with COMEX copper up 4.38% and Brent crude oil futures down 1.98%[15] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 2 basis points to 4.14% during the same period[15]

Travel and Tourism - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the average daily cross-regional passenger flow reached 154 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%[6] - Outbound and international flight executions increased by over 12% compared to the previous year[6] - The migration scale index rose significantly, with a year-on-year growth rate increasing from 12.8% before the holiday to 17.9%[8] Service Consumption - Tourist numbers and revenue in cities like Shanghai and Hubei grew by over 10%, with Shanghai leading at a 23.74% increase[12] - The average ticket price for movies dropped to 37.1 yuan, down from 40.5 yuan last year, marking a continuous decline for the second year[20] Product Consumption - National and local consumption subsidies supported retail sales, with key retail and catering enterprises seeing a 3.3% year-on-year increase in sales during the first four days of the holiday[23] - Automobile sales surged, with a 68.35% increase in vehicle scrappage in Hubei during the holiday period[23] - Sales of energy-efficient appliances grew by 19%, while smart refrigerators and home products saw increases of 20.7% and 16.8%, respectively[23] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 cities saw a seasonal decline, with a year-on-year drop of 15.7% by October 6, attributed to last year's policy effects[27] - The land market remained cold, with a land transaction area decline and a reduced premium rate of 0.05%[27] Consumer Trends - Consumers are increasingly focused on "cost-performance" and "emotional value," with a notable sensitivity to prices reflected in slower growth rates for tourism revenue compared to visitor numbers[29] - High-value experiences, such as cultural tourism and local experiences, are gaining popularity, with hotel search volumes in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia increasing by 60%[33]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved Core Insights - OpenAI is transitioning ChatGPT from a single application to a comprehensive application platform, introducing the "Apps in ChatGPT" feature and a preview of the Apps SDK, allowing developers to integrate third-party applications directly into the chat interface, thereby expanding the product ecosystem and user interaction scenarios [1][2] - The launch of AgentKit marks a significant step in building a production system for agents, providing enterprises and developers with production-ready agent solutions through a full-stack toolkit that includes an Agent Builder and evaluation tools [3][12] - OpenAI has upgraded its model and compute foundation by integrating GPT-5 Pro and Sora 2 into the API, along with the introduction of cost-effective mini-models for real-time voice and image processing, enhancing the overall capability and pricing structure [4][13] - A strategic partnership with AMD aims to establish a 6GW GPU capacity, with the first 1GW expected to be delivered starting in the second half of 2026, reinforcing the compute infrastructure necessary for scaling model supply [5][14] Summary by Sections Strategic Priorities - The three strategic priorities outlined by OpenAI include platformization of ChatGPT, development of production-grade agents, and continuous upgrades to the model and compute foundation [1][10] Platformization - The introduction of the "Apps in ChatGPT" feature allows users to access third-party services directly within conversations, creating a new distribution channel for developers to reach over 800 million weekly active users [2][11] Agent Development - The AgentKit provides a comprehensive toolkit for agent orchestration, including visual tools and systematic evaluation processes, aimed at enabling scalable and controllable agent deployment [3][12] Model and Compute Enhancements - The integration of GPT-5 Pro and Sora 2 into the API, along with the launch of cost-efficient mini-models, enhances the capabilities of OpenAI's offerings while allowing for more economically feasible applications [4][13] Infrastructure and Partnerships - The partnership with AMD to create a 6GW GPU capacity is a critical move to support the growing demand for computational resources, aligning with OpenAI's platform and user engagement metrics [5][14]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance since the beginning of the year, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index achieving maximum gains of 33% and 49% respectively [5][6] - Despite a weaker performance from June to August, the market has rebounded since September, driven by optimism in the technology sector, particularly in AI [6][9] - Current valuations of Hong Kong stocks are at historical medians, with the Hang Seng Index trading at a PE of 12.1x and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 24.6x, indicating attractive valuation compared to A-shares [9][10] Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market outperformed globally in the first half of the year, but faced challenges in mid-June to August, where it lagged behind A-shares by 12.5 percentage points [6][9] - The technology sector in Hong Kong has been particularly affected, with significant underperformance compared to A-shares during this period [6][9] - Since September, the market has rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 7.1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 13.9%, outperforming their A-share counterparts [6][9] Valuation Analysis - The current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is not high, with the Hang Seng Index PE at 12.1x and the Hang Seng Tech PE at 24.6x, both below their historical averages [9][10] - The valuation of Hong Kong technology stocks is particularly attractive, with a lower historical percentile compared to A-shares, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [10][12] - If the valuations of technology leaders in Hong Kong recover to their historical averages, the Hang Seng Tech Index could see an increase of approximately 15% [18] Sector Trends - The technology sector is expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing AI narrative and policy support, with major players like Alibaba and Baidu leading the charge [15][16] - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could lead to increased foreign capital inflow into the Hong Kong market, further supporting stock prices [16][18] - The continuous inflow of southbound funds is expected to enhance the performance of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [16][18] Future Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is projected to reach new highs in the fourth quarter, with the technology sector being the main driver of this growth [12][18] - The combination of favorable industry trends, improved liquidity conditions, and increased foreign investment could lead to a robust performance in the upcoming quarter [12][18] - The potential for valuation recovery in technology stocks presents a significant opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the ongoing market dynamics [18]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Burberry Group, setting a target price of £14.50, representing a 20.6% upside from the current price of £12.02 [2][3]. Core Insights - Burberry is in a phase of brand repair and profit recovery, with current valuations not reflecting mid-term improvement potential. Under the leadership of new CEO Joshua Schulman and creative director Daniel Lee, the Burberry Forward strategy is effectively enhancing profitability [3][4]. - The company has shown signs of fundamental recovery, with a focus on returning to its classic roots while optimizing costs and enhancing brand recognition through modern aesthetics [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Brand Heritage and Product Categories - Burberry, established in 1856, has evolved from a raincoat manufacturer to a globally influential luxury brand, with ready-to-wear clothing as its core revenue source, contributing approximately 60-70% of total revenue from FY2020 to FY2025 [4][11]. - The product matrix is continuously optimized, with ready-to-wear clothing being the primary revenue contributor, followed by accessories and menswear [16][18]. New Management and Strategy - The new management team, led by Joshua Schulman, is implementing the Burberry Forward strategy, focusing on brand positioning, product structure, channel operations, and organizational management to enhance decision-making efficiency and reduce costs [6][43]. - The management anticipates achieving approximately £100 million in annual savings by FY27 through workforce reductions and operational efficiencies [6][9]. Industry Landscape - The personal luxury goods market is expected to decline by 1.4% in 2024, marking the first slowdown in 15 years, primarily due to macroeconomic uncertainties. However, long-term growth opportunities remain, driven by younger consumer demographics and product innovation [8][9]. - Burberry holds a 0.9% market share, ranking 18th among luxury brands, indicating significant room for growth within the industry [8][9]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue and gross margins are projected to face short-term pressure, but improvements are expected as the Burberry Forward strategy progresses. The company anticipates revenue growth rates of -3.7%, +4.6%, and +4.6% for FY2026E to FY2028E [9][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to recover from FY26 onwards, with estimates of 65.8%, 67.0%, and 68.2% for the following years [9][10].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - In September 2025, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[7] - The production index reached a six-month high at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating active manufacturing activities[13] - New orders index was at 49.7%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points but still in the contraction zone[13] Group 2: Raw Materials and Pricing - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased slightly to 53.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, down 0.9 percentage points[19] - The procurement volume index rose to 51.6%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points, indicating accelerated raw material purchases[21] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The services business activity index fell to 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, with notable sector differentiation[22] - The construction business activity index was at 49.3%, a marginal increase of 0.2 percentage points, but still below the critical point[26] Group 4: Economic Policy and Risks - The government announced a new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan to support project capital, aimed at boosting infrastructure activities[27] - Real estate demand remains weak, posing a risk to overall economic recovery[28]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly declined, with notable decreases in prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while prices for most consumer goods remain stable [4][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the discount rates for liquid milk products, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [6][18]. - Overall, the report suggests that the impact of funds is greater, advising attention to low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks in the consumer staples sector [8]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1790 and 1770 yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 55 and 70 yuan from the previous month [4][37]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 895 yuan, down 25 yuan from last month [4][37]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price increased by 10 yuan to 850 yuan [4][37]. Consumer Goods Pricing - The average discount rate for liquid milk products decreased from 74.8% to 69.4% since the end of August [6][21]. - Discount rates for soft drinks, condiments, instant foods, and beer remained stable, with slight variations in average and median values [19][35]. - The report notes that the discount rate for infant formula products also showed a minor decrease from 89.5% to 88.7% [21][35]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks due to the greater impact of funds on the market [8].

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for several companies including China Feihe, Haidilao, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The overall cost indices for six categories of consumer goods showed mixed trends, indicating stability in the market. Spot cost indices for soft drinks, beer, instant noodles, dairy products, frozen foods, and seasonings changed by +0.97%, +0.51%, +0.26%, -0.13%, -0.44%, and -0.57% respectively, while futures cost indices changed by -1.08%, +1.06%, -1.06%, -1.67%, -0.78%, and -0.06% respectively [31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 1.06%. Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have decreased by 3.71% and 4.95% respectively [12][32]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.57% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.06%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -2.41% and -6.71% respectively [15][33]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products decreased by 0.13% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 1.67%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -3.36% and -3.93% respectively [18][34]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 0.26% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.06%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -3.23% and -6.06% respectively [22][35]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods decreased by 0.44% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.78%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -2.3% and -3.37% respectively [25][36]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks rose by 0.97% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 1.08%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -4.19% and -10.86% respectively [28][37].