研究报告 Research Report 15 Sep 2025 香港医疗 Hong Kong Health Care 医药行业周报（2025.09.08-2025.09.12）特朗普计划对中国创新药出海采取限制，但实际影响预计有限 Weekly Report (2025.09.08–2025.09.12): Potential restrictions by Trump on Chinese innovative drug globalization are expected to have a manageable impact Healthcare Weekly (2025.08.25-2025.08.29): ST Volatility in the Market; LT Positive Outlook for Innovative Drugs Unchanged (1 Sep 2025) (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 医药行业表现回顾 本周（2025.09.08-2025.09.12）恒生医疗保健指数下跌 1.4%，恒生 指数上涨 3.8% ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Macau gaming industry, expecting GGR growth momentum to continue into the second half of 2025, with overall performance anticipated to exceed that of the first half of 2025 [2][9]. Core Insights - The Macau gaming market has shown better-than-expected performance from June to August, achieving double-digit GGR growth driven by factors such as RMB appreciation, stock market recovery, and strong tourism demand [2][9]. - The premium mass segment is leading GGR growth, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, while the mass market has yet to recover fully [2][9]. - Companies are actively positioning themselves in the premium mass segment, enhancing their offerings with luxury accommodations and services, leading to intense competition [2][9]. Company Summaries SJM Holdings - The company saw an increase in market share in September, particularly on the Macau Peninsula, attributed to a rise in day-trip visitors [10]. - The mass market business performed exceptionally well, with high profit margins expected to boost EBITDA margins [10]. - Confidence in performance for Q3 2025 is high, with expectations to surpass Q2 and Q1 2025 levels [10]. Sands China - The company is focusing on building competitiveness in the premium mass segment, adding numerous rooms and facilities [11]. - It is the last among six gaming enterprises to target the premium mass segment, aiming to regain lost advantages over the past two years [11]. - Capital expenditures will be directed towards a new convention center and garden, with no short-term increase in room numbers [11]. MGM China - Growth trends are expected to continue into the second half of 2025, with positive hotel booking data for September and October [12]. - The company is actively gaining market share in the premium mass segment, which is anticipated to enhance EBITDA profit margins [12]. - New high-end villas and the upcoming Alpha Club targeting ultra-high-end clientele are expected to boost revenue and profit margins [12]. Galaxy Entertainment - The company performed well in August, benefiting from a concert, with stable sales data from shopping centers [13]. - It expects steady improvement in EBITDA profit margins and remains optimistic about next year's performance growth [13]. - The company is advancing a project to add 1,500 guest rooms, expected to be completed by 2027, enhancing its competitiveness in the premium mass segment [13]. Industry Events - Numerous entertainment and sports events in the second half of 2025 are expected to significantly contribute to tourism and GGR growth in Macau [14]. - Upcoming events include concerts by popular artists and the NBA China Games, which are anticipated to attract significant visitor numbers [14][16].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced subsidies exceeding 500 billion yen (approximately $3.64 billion) for Micron's next-generation DRAM R&D and mass production [21] - Micron plans to invest 1.5 trillion yen by the end of the 2029 fiscal year to enhance production capacity at its Hiroshima plant, aiming for a monthly output of 40,000 advanced DRAM wafers [22] - Apple is expected to introduce chips using TSMC's 2-nanometer process in 2026, securing nearly half of TSMC's initial capacity, which will strengthen TSMC's market position [26][29] - xAI has laid off over 500 data labelers to focus on expanding its team of Specialist AI Tutors for the Grok model [34][35] - Google is shifting its TPU strategy to a "Hardware-as-a-Service" model, deploying TPUs in third-party data centers while retaining ownership, aiming to penetrate NVIDIA's market [38][42] Summary by Sections Japan's Semiconductor Industry - The Japanese government will subsidize one-third of Micron's production line equipment investment, with a maximum of 500 billion yen [23] - The total amount of subsidies to Micron has reached 774.5 billion yen, ensuring a stable supply of semiconductors crucial for economic security [24] Apple and TSMC - Apple's new product strategy includes a "three-tier version" of its A-series processors, enhancing product differentiation and potentially impacting future M-series processors [28][30] - The tiering strategy may complicate product naming and positioning, leading to a reliance on benchmark tests rather than model numbers [33] xAI and AI Industry - xAI's restructuring involves significant layoffs in its data labeling team, which was the largest department, indicating a shift in focus towards specialized AI roles [34][36] Google TPU Strategy - Google's TPU strategy involves a partnership model where TPUs are deployed in third-party data centers, allowing for revenue sharing while avoiding direct competition with NVIDIA [41][42] - This approach lowers capital expenditure barriers for partners and expands the potential customer base for Google TPUs [43][46]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Adobe, but it indicates a positive outlook based on performance exceeding market expectations and a stock price increase of over 3% after earnings release [1][5]. Core Insights - Adobe's FY3Q25 total revenue reached $5.99 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, slightly surpassing market expectations of $5.95 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $5.31, a 14% increase year-over-year, also above the expected $5.25 [1][5]. - The growth in the third quarter was primarily driven by AI innovation and increased demand for enterprise-level automation, with Digital Media revenue at $4.46 billion (up 11% YoY) and Digital Experience revenue at $1.48 billion (up 9% YoY) [2][6]. - AI-related Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) surpassed $5 billion for the first time, marking a growth of over 43% from $3.5 billion at the end of 2024, with new ARR from AI-first products exceeding $250 million in the quarter [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Adobe's total revenue for FY3Q25 was $5.99 billion, a 10% increase YoY, and non-GAAP EPS was $5.31, a 14% increase YoY. RPO was $20.44 billion, up 13% YoY, with cRPO growing by 10% [1][5]. Business Segments - Digital Media business revenue was $4.46 billion, up 11% YoY, driven by Creative Cloud Pro and Firefly Services. Digital Experience revenue was $1.48 billion, up 9% YoY, with significant contributions from the Adobe Experience Platform [2][6][7]. AI Strategy - Adobe is focusing on a dual-track strategy of "AI-infused" and "AI-first" to enhance its market leadership. The company aims to improve ARPU and operational efficiency through various AI-driven products and services [10][11]. Guidance and Outlook - The company raised its Q4 revenue guidance to $6.075 - $6.125 billion and increased the full-year revenue range to $23.65 - $23.70 billion, reflecting management's cautious optimism about macro and industry uncertainties [3][11].

Group 1 - The report anticipates that A-shares will consolidate in September to digest previous gains, while Hong Kong stocks are expected to receive a short-term boost due to easing liquidity pressures and a stronger RMB [1][8] - A-shares experienced sharp volatility, with the SSE Composite Index up 1.5% and the ChiNext Index rising 2.1%, while Hong Kong stocks saw a catch-up rally driven by U.S. AI stocks, with the Hang Seng Index gaining 3.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 5.3% [1][8] - Following dovish signals from Powell at Jackson Hole, gold rebounded over 9%, but U.S. inflation data confirmed rate-cut expectations, leading to gold entering a consolidation phase [2][9] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to pre-allocate part of the 2026 local government debt quota, indicating a more proactive approach compared to previous practices [3][10] - August financial data showed weak credit demand, highlighting the need for stronger policy support, while the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced a growth stabilization plan for the auto sector [3][10] - In A-shares, tech stocks saw severe volatility at elevated levels, while real estate stocks strengthened, with a weekly increase of 6% following the easing of housing restrictions in major cities [4][11] Group 3 - Hong Kong stocks maintained stable liquidity, with HIBOR remaining stable and the RMB appreciating against the dollar, although potential dollar rebounds could weaken this support [5][11] - The AH premium index fell sharply to around 120 after adjustments, with significant southbound capital inflows, particularly into Alibaba, which attracted HKD 22 billion this week [5][11] - The report suggests that U.S. tech stocks rallied on strong Q3 earnings, driving rebounds in A-share tech and Hong Kong stocks, but warns that September trading is likely to remain choppy due to renewed U.S.-China trade frictions [6][13]

Market Observation - The market expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut short-term interest rates has strengthened, and Oracle's announcement of securing multiple large AI contracts has further fueled enthusiasm for the AI boom [3][17] - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 4.07% to close at 44,768.12, while the TOPIX index increased by 1.78% to finish at 3,160.49, driven particularly by the TMT and telecommunications sectors [3][12] - Following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's announcement of his intention to resign, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will hold a leadership election on October 4, with the market responding positively to the potential for more proactive economic policies from the new government [3][4] Economic Data - Japan's Q2 2025 GDP growth was revised significantly upward, with a real quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.5% and an annualized growth rate of 2.2%, surpassing the initial estimate of 1.0% [5] - Nominal GDP growth was adjusted from an initial annualized rate of 5.1% to 6.6%, with private consumption being the main driver of this growth [5][6] - The strong performance in private consumption was attributed to high temperatures and government interventions in food and energy prices, boosting market confidence despite concerns over stagnant real wage growth [5] Corporate Developments - Oracle's unfulfilled orders reached $455 billion by the end of August, a 3.3-fold increase from May, with expectations to surpass $500 billion in the coming months [6] - SoftBank Group's stock rose by 17.3% following Oracle's announcements, as it collaborates with Oracle and OpenAI on the U.S. "Stargate Project" to build AI infrastructure [6] - Mandom, a cosmetics company known for its men's grooming brand "Gatsby," announced a management buyout (MBO) with an offer price of 1,960 yen per share, approximately 30% above the closing price [7]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the nuclear power sector, particularly in relation to AI energy consumption, highlighting companies such as Entergy, Talen Energy, and Constellation Energy as key players [5]. Core Insights - The demand for AI computing is driving a significant boom in cloud infrastructure, benefiting service providers directly [9]. - The U.S. energy market is experiencing dynamic changes, with Conduit Power providing bridging power for ENGIE's battery sites in Texas and Google collaborating on long-duration energy storage projects [9]. - The report emphasizes the strong long-term demand for infrastructure construction in the U.S., particularly in the context of industrial resurgence and AI data center development [5]. Global Infrastructure and Construction Equipment - The explosive demand for AI computing is leading to increased reliance on cloud infrastructure services, with Oracle reporting a 54% year-on-year increase in cloud infrastructure revenue [9]. - Major cloud service providers are becoming critical in handling the overflow of AI workloads due to their flexible supply capabilities [9]. Global Electrical and Intelligent Equipment - The gas turbine price index in the U.S. increased by 4.43% year-on-year and 3.8% month-on-month as of July 2025, indicating a stable competitive landscape [11]. - The U.S. electricity demand forecast has been revised upwards, with expectations of a 15.8% increase by 2029, driven by industrial resurgence and AI data center growth [19][20]. Global Energy Industry - The NYMEX natural gas futures price was reported at $3.10 per million British thermal units, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.6% [3]. - The report highlights the expected balance in the natural gas market supply and demand as the global energy transition progresses [5]. Global New Materials - The report notes a 6% month-on-month increase in the global uranium spot price, indicating ongoing interest in nuclear energy as a stable power source for AI data centers [4]. Global Defense and Aerospace - The report suggests that the recovery of the aerospace industry and increased defense spending will benefit companies like BAE Systems and Raytheon Technologies [6]. Key Company Insights and Commentary - GE Vernova is investing significantly in expanding its generator manufacturing capacity to meet growing global electricity demand [39]. - Siemens Energy is also expanding its transformer manufacturing capabilities in response to the increasing global demand for energy transition solutions [39]. - The report highlights the collaboration between various companies in the nuclear sector, including KHNP and Centrus, to enhance low-enriched uranium supply and explore potential investments in the U.S. [44].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - Richard Sutton proposes that we are entering an "Era of Experience" characterized by autonomous interaction and environmental feedback, emphasizing the need for systems that can create new knowledge through direct interaction with their environments [1][8] - Sutton argues that public fears regarding AI, such as bias and unemployment, are overstated, and that multi-agent cooperation can lead to win-win outcomes [9] - The report highlights the importance of continual learning and meta-learning as key areas for unlocking the potential of reinforcement learning [3][13] Summary by Sections Event - Sutton's presentation at the 2025 INCLUSION Conference outlines a shift from static knowledge transfer to dynamic agent-environment interactions, marking a transition to an "Era of Experience" [1][8] - He identifies reinforcement learning as crucial for this transition, but notes that its full potential is contingent on advancements in continual and meta-learning [1][8] Commentary - The report discusses the shift from "data as experience" to "capability as interaction," suggesting that firms need to develop systems that can actively engage with their environments to generate new knowledge [2][11] - It emphasizes that the real bottleneck in reinforcement learning is not model parameters but the ability to handle time and task sequences, highlighting the need for continual and meta-learning capabilities [3][13] Technical Bottlenecks - The report identifies two main constraints in reinforcement learning: the need for continual learning to avoid catastrophic forgetting and the need for meta-learning to enable rapid adaptation across tasks [3][13] - It suggests that R&D should focus on long-horizon evaluation and the integration of memory mechanisms and planning architectures [3][13] Decentralized Collaboration - The report posits that decentralized collaboration is not only a technical choice but also a governance issue, requiring clear incentives and transparent protocols to function effectively [4][12] - It outlines three foundational institutional requirements for effective decentralized collaboration: open interfaces, cooperation-competition testbeds, and auditability [4][12] Replacement Dynamics - Sutton's view on "replacement" suggests that it will occur at the task level rather than entire job roles, urging organizations to proactively deconstruct tasks and redesign processes for human-AI collaboration [5][15] - The report recommends establishing a human-AI division of labor and reforming performance metrics to focus on collaborative efficiency [5][15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [1]. Core Insights - The Embodied Intelligence Forum emphasized a shift from a hardware/control-first approach to prioritizing data and training environments, defining the "training ground" as a scalable data factory [2][11]. - The integration of real and simulated data is crucial, with real data ensuring task fidelity and simulation providing scalability, leading to a dynamic blending of data sources based on task requirements [3][12]. - Safety, robustness, and verifiability are identified as critical challenges for scaling deployments in the physical world, necessitating efficient reward evaluation and built-in safety constraints [4][13]. - The industry is moving towards measurable and engineerable enterprise applications, while household-level applications may require 5-10 years of investment and technological accumulation [5][14]. Summary by Sections Event Highlights - The forum discussed advancements in cloud-edge-device collaboration and dexterous manipulation, achieving precision of 0.02 mm in tasks like SIM card insertion [1][10]. - Synthetic data strategies are yielding significant improvements in sample efficiency, with applications already in retail, unmanned stores, and industrial settings [1][10]. Industry Trends - The focus has shifted to generating high-quality, task-relevant data efficiently, which is now a key competitive barrier in the industry [2][11]. - The development process is transitioning from artisanal to platform-driven approaches, enhancing the speed of research and development [4][13]. Future Outlook - The next 2-3 years are expected to be a period of technical breakthroughs, with household applications anticipated in 5-10 years, emphasizing the need for ongoing improvements in safety and stability [1][10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Synopsys, but it highlights significant performance challenges and market expectations that may influence investor sentiment. Core Insights - Synopsys reported total revenue of $1.74 billion for FY3Q25, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, but below market expectations of $1.77 to $1.80 billion [1][7] - The non-GAAP operating margin was 38.5%, slightly lower than the previous year and below the consensus of 39.0% [1][7] - Non-GAAP earnings per share were $3.39, down 1.2% year-on-year, and below the expected $3.80 [1][7] - The overall performance was negatively impacted by the underperformance of the IP business, leading to a stock price drop of over 35% [1][7] EDA and IP Business Performance - EDA business revenue grew by 23% year-on-year to $1.31 billion, exceeding market expectations of $1.18 billion, driven by increased complexity in AI chip designs [2][8] - The IP business revenue declined by 8% year-on-year to $428 million, significantly below the expected $552 million, primarily due to weakened confidence from Chinese customers and delays in high-margin product deliveries [2][8][5] Strategic Developments - The completion of the Ansys integration marks a structural upgrade in Synopsys' engineering software portfolio, enhancing its market position as a leader in "silicon-to-system" solutions [2][9] - The Ansys 2025 R2 platform, which integrates AI-driven simulation and advanced features, is expected to enhance Synopsys' capabilities in various high-tech sectors [2][9] Future Outlook - For Q4, Synopsys expects revenue between $2.23 billion and $2.26 billion, with a revised full-year revenue guidance of $7.03 billion to $7.06 billion [3][11] - Non-GAAP earnings per share for the full year are projected to be between $12.76 and $12.80 [3][11] - Management remains cautious about the short-term recovery of the IP business, citing industry and geopolitical factors as ongoing challenges [3][11]