锌周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 宏观推波，供应助力 锌价强劲反弹 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价反弹。宏观面，近期公布的美国就业及通 胀数据均支持美联储降息，且特朗普发表下任美联储主席人 选的言论，也利好未来降息路径，美元弱势运行，利好风险 资产价格走势。国内临近中央政治局会议，政策预期回升， 市场情绪偏好，铜锡价格不断刷新高点，锌价跟随反弹。基 本面看，供应端供应端收缩态势突出，12 月国内外锌矿加 工费加速下行，其中国产矿加工费均值回落至 2000 元/金属 吨，基本回归年初水平，炼厂利润空间持续压缩，行业减停 产现象增多。SMM 数据显示，11 月国内精炼锌产量不及预期， 回落至 60 万吨下方，预计 12 月产量环比减少 2.4 万吨， 前期高供应压力得到明显缓解。同时，国内外现货升水均走 强，也助力期价偏强运行。不过，消费端仍处于传统淡季， 需求侧未能形成有效配合，初端企业开工率维持不 ...

李婷 2025 年 12 月 8 日 关注马棕油累库情况 棕榈油区间震荡 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 棕榈油周报 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨38收于4152林吉特/吨，涨幅 0.92%；棕榈油01合约涨144收于8770元/吨，涨幅 1.67%；豆油01合约涨22收于8266元/吨，涨幅0.27%； 菜油01合约跌139收于9618元/吨，跌幅1.42%；CBOT豆 油主连跌0.38收于51.7美分/磅，跌幅0.73%；ICE油菜 籽活跃合约跌33.5收于618.2加元/吨，跌幅5.14%。 ⚫ 随着东南亚洪灾题材降温，盘面上涨动能减弱；但 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - Last week, the CBOT January soybean contract fell 32 to close at 1105.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.81%; the January soybean meal contract fell 8 to close at 3036 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.26%; the spot price of soybean meal in South China remained flat at 3000 yuan per ton; the January rapeseed meal contract fell 55 to close at 2397 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.24%; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Guangxi fell 70 to 2480 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.75% [2][5]. - There is a lack of news on China's purchase of US soybeans. The US claims that China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by the end of February, but the current progress is slow and it is doubtful whether this target can be achieved. The external market lacks support and oscillates downward. Domestic soybean meal is suppressed by high inventory, while the import cost is still in a loss, providing support at the cost end. The Dalian soybean meal futures generally oscillate [2][5]. - The Canadian Bureau of Statistics reported that the rapeseed production was 21.8 million tons, which is bearish. With abundant global supply, ICE rapeseed prices have fallen, and rapeseed meal is relatively weak. The current weather conditions in South America are generally favorable, and the crop outlook is positive. On Friday, private exporters reported the sale of 462,000 tons of soybeans to China. Attention should be paid to the progress of US soybean exports, and we are waiting for the release of the December USDA report. The domestic soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the import cost provides support. It is expected that the short - term oscillation of Dalian soybean meal futures will continue [2][9]. Summary by Directory Market Data | Contract | December 5th | November 28th | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybeans | 1105.25 | 1137.25 | -32.00 | -2.81% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 481.00 | 500.00 | -19.00 | -3.80% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 498.00 | 502.00 | -4.00 | -0.80% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | 70.75 | 64.34 | 6.41 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3036.00 | 3044.00 | -8.00 | -0.26% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2397.00 | 2452.00 | -55.00 | -2.24% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 639.00 | 592.00 | 47.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3040.00 | 3020.00 | 20.00 | 0.66% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3000.00 | 3000.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | -36.00 | -44.00 | 8.00 | | Yuan per ton | [3] Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week ending October 30, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 1.248 million tons, compared with 1.45 million tons in the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season was 17.2 million tons, with a sales progress of 38.6%, compared with 55.5% in the same period last year. China started to purchase US soybeans this week, with a purchase volume of 232,000 tons [6]. - As of the week ending November 21, 2025, the gross profit of US soybean crushing (the price difference between soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal) was 2.5 US dollars per bushel, compared with 2.81 US dollars per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was 324 US dollars per short ton, compared with 338 US dollars per short ton in the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 51.99 cents per pound, compared with 51.58 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.16 US dollars per bushel, compared with 11.15 US dollars per bushel in the previous week [6]. - According to Conab, as of the week ending November 29, 2025, the planting rate of soybeans in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 86%, compared with 78% in the previous week, 90% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 84.4%. According to AgRural, as of the week ending November 27, the sowing rate of soybeans in Brazil for the 2025/26 season had reached the expected 89%, compared with 81% in the previous week and 91% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters announced that the soybean export volume in December is expected to be 2.81 million tons, compared with 1.47 million tons in the same period last year [7]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that as of the week ending November 26, 2025, the sowing progress of soybeans in Argentina was 44.7%, compared with 36% in the previous week and 53.8% in the same period last year [7]. - The weather forecast for South American production areas shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the Brazilian soybean production area is expected to be 150 mm, higher than the normal level, and the overall weather conditions are good. The precipitation in Argentina will be relatively dry in the next two weeks, which is conducive to sowing. Continuous attention should be paid to the weather changes in this area [7]. - As of the week ending November 28, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.3396 million tons, an increase of 189,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 2.3661 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 1.2032 million tons, an increase of 51,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 368,700 tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 3.881 million tons, a decrease of 714,100 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 107,000 tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 9.576 million tons, an increase of 151,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 3.0825 million tons from the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending December 5, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 140,280 tons, including 82,980 tons of spot trading and 57,300 tons of forward trading. The daily average total trading volume in the previous week was 124,340 tons; the daily average pick - up volume of soybean meal was 184,300 tons, compared with 188,000 tons in the previous week; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.0558 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons in the previous week; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 8.49 days, compared with 8.17 days in the previous week [8]. Industry News - StoneX estimated that the soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will be 177.2 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from its November forecast. However, if this forecast comes true, it will still be a record - high soybean output in Brazil. StoneX said that although the planting area has slightly expanded, this adjustment reflects the decline in the soybean production potential in the main producing states of Mato Grosso and Goias in Brazil [10]. - Patria Agronegocios estimated that the soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will reach 171.89 million tons, a 0.2% increase from the mid - November forecast. The expected output will increase by 1.4% compared with the 2024/25 season. Patria reported that the soybean sowing area in Brazil is expected to reach 48.58 million hectares (120 million acres), a 0.9% increase from the previous forecast and higher than the 47.69 million hectares in the previous year [10]. - Imea estimated that the soybean production in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season will be 47.18 million tons, remaining stable compared with the November report forecast. The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from November 24th to November 28th was 492.95 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 451.85 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous week. During the same week, the price of soybean meal in the state was 1,615.80 Brazilian reals per ton, and the price of soybean oil was 6,290.33 Brazilian reals per ton [11]. - According to the European Commission, as of November 30, the palm oil import volume of the EU in the 2025/26 season was 1.17 million tons, compared with 1.42 million tons last year. The soybean import volume was 4.97 million tons, compared with 5.75 million tons last year. The soybean meal import volume was 7.46 million tons, compared with 8.33 million tons last year. The rapeseed import volume was 1.58 million tons, compared with 2.61 million tons last year [11]. - The Canadian Bureau of Statistics will release the yield forecast report of field crops for the 2025/26 market season based on farmer surveys on December 4. Before that, the average forecast of interviewed analysts was that the rapeseed production in Canada for the 2025/26 season would be 21.25 million tons, higher than the 20.03 million tons announced by the Bureau in September [11]. - The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) raised the forecast of Australia's rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season by 800,000 tons to 7.2 million tons, higher than the 6.4 million tons in the previous year and 50% higher than the ten - year average [12]. - According to foreign media reports, on December 3, an institution released a commodity research report showing that the soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 46.9 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, with a forecast range between 45.8 million and 48.1 million tons. However, the sowing at the beginning of the season has been continuously delayed, the soil moisture in the Pampas planting belt has declined, and the long - term weather outlook is bleak, which deserves attention [12]. - The main field crop yield report released by the Canadian Bureau of Statistics showed that the rapeseed yield per unit area reached a record high. Although the harvested area of rapeseed reported by farmers in 2025 decreased, the timely precipitation in the later season in western Canada helped push the rapeseed yield per unit area in the three prairie provinces to or close to the historical highest level, thus increasing the national yield per unit area to 44.7 bushels per acre. The national rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons, exceeding the previous production record set in 2017 [12]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the trend of the soybean meal main contract, the spot price of soybean meal in different regions, the spread between January and May contracts of soybean meal, the net position of managed funds in CBOT, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the precipitation and temperature in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production areas, the sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of US soybeans, the crushing profit of US oil mills, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory at ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unfulfilled contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [13][16][18]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated downward. The main reasons were that the polysilicon production in November fell short of expectations, and the slowdown in photovoltaic installation at the end of the year led to a significant decline in silicon wafer production scheduling, dragging down the demand for upstream silicon materials. The overall sentiment in the industrial products market cooled. From the supply side, the operating rate in Xinjiang remained around 85%, the output in the southwest region decreased significantly during the dry season, and there was little expectation of increased production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia, resulting in a slight contraction in supply. From the demand side, the market - supporting effect of leading polysilicon enterprises was poor, the futures price dropped significantly last week, and the production scheduling in December was expected to continue to decline. The price of silicon wafers fell continuously last week, and battery enterprises effectively managed their safety inventory, forcing silicon enterprises to cut prices and dump products. The production scheduling of silicon wafers in December decreased by more than 15%. The decline of battery cells slowed down last week, and leading integrated enterprises increased production cuts in December, with market decisions being divided and the demand side tightening faster. The finished - product inventory of component enterprises was relatively stable, but the actual demand for concentrated installation decreased at the end of the year, and the number of provincial and municipal photovoltaic projects won by domestic enterprises decreased. The total procurement capacity won last week was 1232.8MW, a week - on - week decrease of 345.7MW. The social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons last week, and the spot market of industrial silicon shifted downward due to the decline in futures prices [2][5][9]. - Overall, the official manufacturing PMI in November was still in the contraction range, the polysilicon production fell short of expectations, and the production scheduling of the photovoltaic mid - and downstream in December decreased significantly. The overall sentiment in the industrial products market cooled. Technically, the main contract fell below the 9000 level and continued to decline weakly. It is expected that the futures price of industrial silicon will enter a weak and volatile state [2][9]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The price of the industrial silicon main contract on December 5 was 8805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 325 yuan/ton or 3.56% from November 28. The price of oxygen - passing 553 spot was 9450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.05%. The price of non - oxygen - passing 553 spot remained unchanged at 9350 yuan/ton. The price of 421 spot remained unchanged at 9800 yuan/ton. The price of 3303 spot remained unchanged at 10450 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC spot was 13600 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton or 3.03%. The price of polysilicon dense material spot remained unchanged at 52 yuan/ton. The social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons or 1.45% [3]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: China's official manufacturing PMI in November rose to 49.2, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The production index was 50, indicating that manufacturing production was generally stable. The new order index was 49.2, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, indicating that the market demand in the manufacturing industry was generally stable. The raw material inventory index was 47.3, remaining unchanged month - on - month, indicating a continuous decrease in the inventory of major raw materials. The employment index was 48.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, indicating a slight improvement in the employment sentiment of manufacturing enterprises. The supplier delivery index was 50.1, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, indicating a slight acceleration in the supplier delivery time [6]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of December 28, the weekly output of industrial silicon decreased to 81,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The number of open furnaces in the three major industrial silicon production areas dropped significantly to 238, and the overall furnace - opening rate dropped to 29.9%. Among them, the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang decreased to 140, remaining unchanged week - on - week; in Yunnan, it decreased by 5 to 14; in Sichuan and Chongqing, it decreased by 13 to 8; in Inner Mongolia, it decreased by 1 to 32. The demand side showed that the market - supporting effect of leading polysilicon enterprises was poor, the futures price dropped significantly last week, and the production scheduling in December was expected to continue to decline. The price of silicon wafers fell continuously last week, and the production scheduling of silicon wafers in December decreased by more than 15%. The decline of battery cells slowed down last week, and leading integrated enterprises increased production cuts in December. The finished - product inventory of component enterprises was relatively stable, but the actual demand for concentrated installation decreased at the end of the year, and the number of provincial and municipal photovoltaic projects won by domestic enterprises decreased [5][7][9]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of December 5, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons. The terminal consumption slowed down, and the registered warehouse receipt volume of the exchange continued to increase. As of December 5, the warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose to 7288 lots, totaling 36,400 tons. It is expected that the warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase under the background of weakening marginal demand at the end of the year [8]. Industry News - On December 5, Daquan Energy held a performance briefing for the third quarter. The company's directors, board secretary Sun Yicheng, and CFO and deputy general manager Shi Wei attended the meeting and responded to core issues such as the trend of silicon material prices, the impact of industry policies, the company's operating performance, and technological layout. The company's N - type dense material in polysilicon products accounted for more than 70%, and there was no specific construction plan for granular silicon technology at present [10]. - The EU is considering setting a "Made in Europe" target of up to 70% for specific goods including automobiles. The policy may force EU enterprises to purchase more expensive European components, bringing them an additional cost of more than 10 billion euros per year. The proposal is expected to be submitted on December 10. Germany and other countries have indicated that they will support the "Buy European" rule, which may affect the automotive industry and clean - technology fields such as solar panels [11]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including industrial silicon production, export volume, social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, main production area weekly output, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and various spot prices [13][14][16][17][18].

氧化铝周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 减产迟迟未能兑现 氧化铝空头氛围浓 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端，近期国内外矿端保持平静，国内矿石维持偏 紧价格持稳。进口矿近期成交活跃度不高，主要以 几内亚、澳大利亚长单执行为主，氧化铝利润不断 压缩对铝土矿采购态度谨慎。供应端上周有山西 地区氧化铝企业减产，预计持续20天，日度影响产 量2000吨。进口窗口保持开启，进口氧化铝后续仍 有流入预期。消费端上周氧化铝价再度加速下跌， 电解铝企业采购意愿稍有抬升，但大多压价成交， 周末现货价格出现较大跌幅。仓单库存25.3万吨 周内减 ...

焦煤焦炭周报 基本面供强需弱 双焦偏弱走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 投资咨询号：Z0011692 2025 年 12 月 8 日 ⚫ 下游：钢厂铁水产量下跌，终端需求继续放缓。钢厂的 焦炭生产维持，日均焦炭产量小幅增加，库存减少。 ⚫ 中游：焦化企业连续三周盈利，主因焦煤价格走弱，生 产加速，焦炭产量明显增加，但出货困难，库存增加。 全国平均吨焦盈利30（环比-17）元/吨。 ⚫ 上游：矿山生产平稳，供应压力增大，焦煤库存大幅增 加。523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为85.6%，环 比-0.4%。原煤日均产量190.4万吨，环比-0.9万吨，原 煤库存471.6 ...

铁矿周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 港库持续增加 铁矿震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 ⚫ 需求端：多地启动五日应急响应，钢厂检修规模扩 大，铁水产量环比回落。上周247家钢厂高炉开工率 80.16%，环比上周减少0.93个百分点，同比去年减少 1.31个百分点，日均铁水产量 232.3万吨，环比上周 减少2.38万吨，同比去年减少0.31万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外铁矿到港量减少，但发运增加，港 口库存处于高位，供应压力不减。上周全球铁矿石发 运总3323.2万吨，环比增加44.7万吨。库存方面，全 国47个港口进口铁矿库存1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas employment data is mixed, with the yen rising due to expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, and the market focusing on subsequent rate - hike magnitudes; in the domestic market, A - shares are in a weak shock, and the bond market is accelerating its decline [2][3]. - Silver prices are in a high - level correction and are expected to continue to adjust in the short term; copper prices remain strong; aluminum shows a bullish trend; alumina is still searching for a bottom; casting aluminum has a good fundamental outlook; zinc prices are oscillating strongly; lead prices are oscillating strongly; tin prices are consolidating at a high level; industrial silicon prices are oscillating narrowly; steel prices are oscillating; iron ore prices are under pressure; double - coke prices are oscillating weakly; bean and rapeseed meal prices are oscillating; palm oil prices are oscillating within a range [4][6][8][11][12][15][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: US November Challenger layoffs were 71,000, with the year - on - year growth rate slowing to 24%, but the scale was the highest for the same period since 2022. The latest initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000, the lowest since September 2022. The yen rose due to expectations that the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates in December, and long - term bond yields soared to multi - decade highs. The US dollar index rebounded to 99, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.10%, the US stock market was flat, oil prices rose by more than 1%, and gold and copper prices slightly declined [2]. - Domestic: A - shares on Thursday had a shrinking - volume shock and significant structural differentiation, with the ChiNext and STAR Market performing better, and the micro - cap and dividend styles falling significantly. More than 3,800 stocks in the two markets closed down, and the trading volume dropped to 1.56 trillion yuan, the lowest since August. The bond market accelerated its correction, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) hit a new low this year. The 10Y and 30Y yields rose to 1.85% and 2.25% respectively [3]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose slightly, while silver futures fell 1.86% to $57.53 per ounce, and platinum and palladium futures also declined. Silver prices corrected due to investors taking profits, but gold prices were still supported by safe - haven demand. The latest US employment data did not affect the expectation of an interest - rate cut this month. It is expected that silver prices will continue to adjust in the short term [4][5]. Copper - On Thursday, the main Shanghai copper contract oscillated around 91,000 yuan, and LME copper oscillated around $11,500. The domestic near - month C structure narrowed. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper was weak. LME inventory remained at 163,000 tons, while COMEX inventory increased to 436,000 tons. Glencore plans to restart its Alumbrera copper mine in Argentina by the end of next year and lowered its 2026 copper production guidance from 930,000 tons to 810,000 - 870,000 tons. It is expected that copper prices will remain strong in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 22,115 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. LME aluminum closed at $2,887.5/ton, down 0.33%. The end - of - year energy - storage consumption expectation is rising, and the aluminum ingot social inventory has not entered the accumulation cycle during the traditional consumption off - season. The long - position sentiment in the market continues, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a bullish trend [8][9]. Alumina - On Thursday, the main alumina futures contract closed at 2,615 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The national average spot price of alumina was 2,851 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. At the end of the year when long - term contracts are negotiated, the willingness to cut production is still weak. There have been extremely low spot transaction prices in recent days, and alumina is expected to continue to search for a bottom [10]. Casting Aluminum - On Thursday, the main casting aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 21,070 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The shortage pattern of scrap aluminum in the raw material end is difficult to change, and the cost support is rising. The end - of - year rush - volume demand still supports the industry's resilience. Overall, the fundamentals of casting aluminum are healthy, and the price outlook is positive [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, the main Shanghai zinc 2601 contract rose after an intraday high and then fell back, and oscillated strongly at night. LME zinc closed up. The market supply of zinc is still tight, and the premium is strengthening. The overall situation is that both macro and micro factors are favorable in the short term, supporting zinc prices to oscillate strongly, but the negative feedback of high prices is emerging in the consumption off - season, and it is expected that the contract price will fluctuate around the integer level [12]. Lead - On Thursday, the main Shanghai lead 2601 contract oscillated strongly during the day, and the center of gravity continued to rise at night. LME lead closed up. The social inventory decreased by 7,100 tons compared with Monday. It is expected that lead prices will oscillate strongly in the short term [13][14]. Tin - On Thursday, the main Shanghai tin 2601 contract rose after an intraday high and then fell back, and oscillated narrowly at night. LME tin moved sideways. It is expected that tin prices will mainly consolidate at a high level in the short term [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. From the supply side, the supply is converging; from the demand side, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent recently. It is expected that the contract price will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [16][17]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated. The supply and demand of steel are both weak, and the supply and demand of rebar have improved, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have not changed much. Overall, the supply - demand drive is not strong, and it is expected that steel prices will oscillate [18][19]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated. The supply of iron ore is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the contract price will oscillate under pressure [20]. Double - Coke (Coking Coal and Coke) - On Thursday, double - coke futures oscillated. The supply of coking coal and coke is strong, and the demand is weak. The expectation of a coke price cut is strong. It is expected that the contract price will oscillate weakly [21]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean meal 01 contract rose 0.03%, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 0.62%. Brazil's precipitation conditions are good, while Argentina's precipitation is lower than normal. It is expected that the Dalian Commodity Exchange bean meal will oscillate in the short term [22][23]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 01 contract fell 0.80%. Indian refineries cancelled 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders for the December - January shipment period. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate within a range in the short term [24].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251204 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 ADP 就业走弱，国内股债双弱 海外方面，美国服务业支撑的基本面韧性与就业边际疲软并存，11 月 ADP 就业减少 3.2 万，为 2023 年 3 月来最大降幅，压力集中于小企业，大企业则净增 9 万，就业分化显著。 11 月 ISM 服务业升至 52.6，创九个月新高，价格降至七个月低点、就业升至六个月高点， 显示服务需求韧性、通胀缓和、就业收缩放缓。美元指数回落至 98.9，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.07%，美股收涨，铜价再创历史新高，受美元走弱、供应扰动加剧及 LME 注册仓库库存持 续紧张共同推升，金、油小幅收涨。今日关注美国初申失业金人数。 国内方面，中国 11 月 RatingDog 服务业 PMI 降至 52.1，扩张小幅放缓，其中新出口订 单明显回升，受企业加大营销和中美贸易不确定性阶段性缓解带动，外需景气度改善。A 股 周三缩量调整，两市超 3800 只个股收跌、成交额回落至 1.68 万亿，双创板块领跌，目前经 济基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in December, with an 89% probability priced in, and risk assets are strengthening. The A-share market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the bond market lacks a clear direction. Precious metals show mixed trends, and copper, aluminum, and other industrial metals have different performance and outlooks based on supply - demand and macro - factors. Agricultural products such as soybean meal and palm oil are also affected by various factors and are expected to have different trends [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump will announce a new Fed chair early next year, with Hassett seen as the likely candidate, leading to expectations of a more dovish policy. The 12 - month interest - rate cut probability is 89%. The US 10Y Treasury yield is 4.08%, and the US dollar index is at 99.2. There is no substantial progress in Russia - US talks on Ukraine. Attention is on US November service PMI, November ADP employment, and September industrial output data [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market adjusted with reduced volume, and is expected to be weak in the short - term. The bond market is weak, and the central bank's November net bond purchase of 500 billion yuan was lower than expected [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold futures fell 0.84% to $4238.70 per ounce, and silver futures rose 1.2% to $59.15 per ounce. Trump's hint about the Fed chair and stable Japanese bond auctions affected the market. The US economic slowdown and dovish signals from the Fed boost the expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Central banks bought 53 tons of gold in October, a 36% increase. Silver's supply chain shows tight signs. Pay attention to the US ADP data and the PCE index [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - The copper price fell. The OECD predicts that developed economies will end the rate - cut cycle by the end of 2026, and the Fed will cut rates twice next year. Supply shortages limit the downside. New projects are being developed, such as a large - scale copper smelter in Africa and a potential joint - venture project in Canada. The copper price is expected to remain high and volatile, with support at $11000 for LME copper [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The aluminum price was high and volatile. The OECD's economic outlook and inflation data in the eurozone affect the market. The Fed's rate - cut expectation is 87%. Aluminum production capacity is stable, and consumption is resilient. The aluminum price is expected to be range - bound [8][9][10]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina price was weak. Supply is abundant, and imports are flowing in, with high inventory. A factory's maintenance may provide some support, but more production cuts are needed to stop the decline [11]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - The cast - aluminum price is expected to be strong. Terminal demand is good due to year - end work and policy support, and the cost is well - supported [12]. 3.7 Zinc - The zinc price is expected to be strong within a range. Supply is expected to decrease by 2.43 tons in December due to raw - material shortages and refinery cuts. However, the consumption off - season and high prices limit the upside [13]. 3.8 Lead - The lead price rebounded. Supply is marginally reduced, and the new e - bike standard may boost consumption. But the open import window and high overseas inventory limit the upside [14][15]. 3.9 Tin - The tin price is likely to rise. The market sentiment is improved, and supply concerns are increasing. It is expected to be strong, waiting for macro and micro factors to align [16]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon price is expected to be weakly volatile. Supply is shrinking, and demand is mixed. The social inventory has increased to 550,000 tons [17][18]. 3.11 Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel price is expected to be volatile. Spot trading is stable, and the supply - demand drive is limited. Some areas have shortages, and the overall inventory is reasonable [19][20]. 3.12 Iron Ore - The iron - ore price is under pressure. The first shipment from Simandou has been made, and supply is increasing while demand is weakening due to steel - mill losses and reduced blast - furnace operations [21][22]. 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be weak. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and supply is strong while demand is weak in the steel - making industry [23]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to be volatile. The US is seeking to expand soybean demand. South American weather and US soybean exports are key factors. Canadian and Australian rapeseed production forecasts have changed [24][25]. 3.15 Palm Oil - The palm - oil price is expected to be range - bound. The impact of weather on supply is decreasing, and the market is waiting for the MPOB report. Malaysian exports decreased in November, while Indian imports increased [26][27].