1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, showing a pattern of being strong first and then weak this week. Although there is a continued positive macro - expectation, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement. The Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates in October, and the US dollar index is expected to decline, which provides macro - level support. However, there is a stockpiling pressure on nickel both at home and abroad, and domestic supply remains high. Traditional consumption has no significant driving force, and whether the strong demand from the power end can materialize remains to be seen [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Last Week - SHFE nickel price dropped from 122,180 yuan/ton to 121,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,020 yuan/ton; LME nickel price decreased from 15,280 dollars/ton to 15,126 dollars/ton, a decline of 154 dollars/ton. - LME nickel inventory increased by 13,152 tons to 250,530 tons, and SHFE nickel inventory rose by 1,814 tons to 27,042 tons. - The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 200 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, while the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged at 550 yuan/ton. - The average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased from 961 yuan/nickel point to 947 yuan/nickel point, a drop of 14 yuan/nickel point. - Stainless steel inventory decreased from 878,000 tons to 865,000 tons, a reduction of 13,200 tons [4]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Macro - level - The US government shutdown led to a halt in the release of inflation, retail, and employment data. The Fed's economic beige book showed that the US consumer market has weakened, with high tariffs driving up prices and economic downward pressure still existing. The labor market remains sluggish but has stopped declining. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the July forecast. Fed governors Milan and Waller signaled a dovish stance, but there is a difference in the expected interest - rate cut range in October, with Milan advocating a 50 - basis - point cut and Waller supporting a 25 - basis - point cut [5]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines remained at 49 dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia remained at 38.55 dollars/wet ton. The FOB price of 1.4% grade nickel ore in the Philippines from a tender was 43.5 dollars/wet ton. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is expected to remain loose, and the domestic trade premium is stable. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources required 400 mining enterprises to submit their 2026 production plans by October 17 [6]. 3.2.3 Pure Nickel - In September, the national refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.07%. The monthly production capacity was about 54,198 tons, a slight increase of 499 tons from the previous period, and the operating rate was 66%, with no significant change. The profit margins of integrated electrowinning nickel in various processes have been significantly restored. In August, China imported 24,186 tons of refined nickel, a year - on - year increase of about 161.29% and a month - on - month decrease of about 6,000 tons. The import increment mainly came from Norway, while imports from Russia decreased significantly. In August, the domestic refined nickel export volume was about 15,048 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.12%. As of October 16, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was - 1,325 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased significantly [7]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 951 yuan/nickel point to 938 yuan/nickel point, a weekly decline of about 1.37%. In September, China's nickel pig iron production was 22,930 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. Indonesia's nickel pig iron production was 139,900 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 0.14% and 0.01% respectively. As of September 30, the physical ton inventory of nickel iron was 254,300 tons, a slight increase of about 5,800 tons from the previous period. After the holiday, stainless - steel consumption was sluggish, and steel mills' raw material stocking willingness was poor, putting pressure on nickel - iron prices. The cost of nickel - iron plants was under pressure due to the firm price of nickel ore [8]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production was about 1.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons and a month - on - month flat. Indonesia's stainless - steel production in September was about 430,000 tons, a slight increase of 30,000 tons from the previous period. The 300 - series stainless - steel production in September had no significant change, and the actual nickel consumption was limited. It is expected that the 300 - series stainless - steel production in October will decrease by 70,000 tons to 1.79 million tons. As of October 16, the domestic 300 - series stainless - steel inventory was 562,200 tons, a stockpiling of about 31,300 tons from the previous period. The terminal real - estate transaction was still sluggish, and the large - scale stockpiling of 300 - series stainless steel suppressed its production scale [9]. 3.2.6 Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,400 yuan/ton to 28,550 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate rose slightly to 30,750 yuan/ton. In September, the production of nickel sulfate was 33,971 tons (metal content), a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 4.75% and 11.45% respectively. The production of ternary materials in September was about 75,360 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 31.5% and 2.6% respectively. The profit margin of the process of producing nickel sulfate from high - grade nickel matte was 6.1% and showed an upward trend. The supply of MHP was tight, and there was a structural differentiation in the upstream supply, but the total supply increased. The terminal consumption was strong, but the mid - stream material factories had not digested their existing inventories, and there was a strong restocking expectation in the future [10]. 3.2.7 New Energy - From October 1 - 12, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger - vehicle market was 367,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 1% compared with the same period in October last year and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicle retail was 53.5%, and the cumulative retail volume since this year was 9.236 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued an announcement on the technical requirements for new - energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 - 2027. The new standard will take effect on January 1, 2026, which is expected to promote technological innovation in the automotive industry and the lightweight development of new - energy vehicles. Some regions have adjusted the new - energy vehicle replacement subsidy rules to a "qualification - based" system [10][11]. 3.2.8 Inventory - The current six - region social inventory of pure nickel was 47,708 tons, an increase of 4,014 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory was 27,042 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,814 tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 250,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,152 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges was 277,572 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,966 tons [12]. 3.3 Industry News - On October 10, 2025, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources required nickel enterprises to submit their 2026 nickel - mine production plans by October 15. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. stated that its nickel - ore smelting capacity in Indonesia is nearly 200,000 metal tons. The company has also made strategic investments in lithium and phosphorus resources [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including domestic and foreign nickel - price trends, spot premium trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratio, nickel - futures inventory, nickel - ore port inventory, high - nickel - iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [16][18][23].

关注宏观变化 期价震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 钢材周报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 李婷 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 宏观面：二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议于10月20日 至23日在北京召开。10月18日，何立峰与美国财政部长 贝森特、贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话，双方同意尽快 举行新一轮中美经贸磋商。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量201万吨，环比减少2万吨，表需 220万吨，增加74万吨，厂库185万吨，减少8万吨，社 库456万吨，减少11万吨，总库存641万吨，减少19万吨。 热卷产量322万吨，减少1万吨，厂库78万吨，减少6万 吨，社库341万吨，增 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, lithium carbonate showed a stable start after the holiday, with terminal consumption hitting new highs, and both spot and exchange inventories declined. The market's bullish sentiment emerged, leading to a significant rise in the market at the end of the week. Fundamentally, there are signs of marginal improvement, indicating an increase in downstream consumption after the holiday [4]. - In the later stage, the fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, and lithium prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but the upside space is limited. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand still has an incremental expectation, but the sustainability of its strength is questionable. Technically, there is resistance above 75,000 yuan [4][14]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported lithium concentrate, and domestic lithium concentrate decreased, while the battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price, lithium carbonate main contract price, and the prices of cobalt - acid lithium and ternary materials increased. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropped to 0, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained) price slightly decreased. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.81% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and Delivery: As of October 17, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 30,686 lots, with the latest matching transaction price at 76,180 yuan/ton. The positions of the main contract 2511 were 159,000 lots [7]. - Supply Side: As of October 17, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 22,765 tons, an increase of 326 tons from the previous period. Low - cost production capacity is still being gradually put into operation, and African lithium resources inflow has further increased [7]. - Lithium Salt Import: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,847 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58% and a year - on - year increase of 25%. The import average price decreased by about 14% compared with the previous period [8]. - Lithium Ore Import: In August, the total import of lithium ore was about 619,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.51%. The imports from different countries showed different trends [9]. - Demand Side - Downstream Cathode Materials: As of October 17, the production and prices of phosphoric acid iron - lithium and ternary materials increased, and the inventory decreased. The installed capacity of iron - lithium batteries accounted for nearly 80%, and the inventory of iron - lithium cathode materials decreased significantly, indicating good terminal consumption [10]. - New Energy Vehicles: From October 1 - 12, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market were 367,000 units. New policies on vehicle purchase tax exemption and replacement and scrapping subsidies have been introduced [11][12]. - Inventory: As of September 26, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by about 1,044 tons compared with the previous period [13]. This Week's Outlook - Terminal consumption is heating up, and lithium prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but the upside space is limited due to resistance from both fundamentals and technical aspects [14]. Industry News - Hainan Mining's Mali Buguni lithium ore project shipped its first batch of 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate [15]. - Jinyuan Co., Ltd.'s Baqiancuo Salt Lake lithium extraction project is in the trial - production stage, and the Argentina Carlo project is still in the exploration stage [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina is expected to continue its weak performance due to high operating rates, significant supply pressure, and increasing social and warehouse inventories. However, with sporadic production cuts and the futures main contract approaching the average cash cost line, the downside space may be limited. Future focus should be on alumina production cuts and winter storage in the northwest region [2][5][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/17 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2856 | 2800 | -56 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2992 | 2956 | -36 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 180 | 187 | 7 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 324 | 319 | -5 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 100.02 | 101.91 | 1.9 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 176029 | 221262 | 45233 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 590 | 590 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF Bauxite | 73.5 | 73.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract dropped 1.96% last week, closing at 2800 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price on Friday was 2956 Yuan/ton, down 36 Yuan/ton from the previous week [5] - In the bauxite market, northern regions (Shanxi and Henan) faced a large supply gap due to low mine operating rates. Southern regions' supply remained stable. Imported ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories declined but stayed above 30 million tons. The falling alumina price increased cost pressure on enterprises, reducing their enthusiasm for importing ore and pressuring imported ore prices [5] - On the supply side, alumina supply slightly decreased as an enterprise in Shanxi started minor production cuts due to ore shortages. Although some enterprises were close to losses, few took production - cut measures, and the reduction in production capacity was limited, providing insufficient support for alumina prices. As of October 16, China's alumina installed capacity was 114.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 96.3 million tons and an operating rate of 83.89% [5] - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises had no plans to increase or decrease production, and the industry's supply remained stable, with no significant change in the demand for alumina. Northwest electrolytic aluminum plants conducted regular tender purchases, and some plants made small - scale spot purchases to replenish inventories. Transaction prices mostly continued the trend of trading at a discount [5] - In terms of inventory, last Friday, alumina futures' warehouse receipts inventory increased by 110,000 tons to 221,000 tons, while factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [6] 3.3 Market Outlook - From the perspective of the ore end, domestic ore is in short supply, and its price increase is restricted by the falling alumina price. Imported ore supply is generally abundant, although affected by the rainy season in Guinea, and its price is under pressure. On the supply side, an alumina enterprise in Shanxi has started minor production cuts due to ore issues, expected to affect a production capacity of 400,000 tons. Other alumina plants are not very willing to cut production due to factors such as long - term contract negotiations and the monthly average alumina price not reaching the cash - loss level, and no large - scale production - cut plans are seen for now [2][5][8] - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises have no plans to increase or decrease production, and the industry's supply remains stable, with no significant change in the demand for alumina [2][5][8] - The warehouse receipts inventory increased by 110,000 tons during the week to 221,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, alumina still maintains a high operating rate, and the supply pressure remains significant. Social and warehouse receipts inventories are at high levels and continue to accumulate. Alumina is expected to continue its weak performance. However, with sporadic production cuts and the futures main contract approaching the average cash cost line of the alumina industry, the downside space may be limited [2][5][8] 3.4 Industry News - In Guinea, workers at the CBK aluminum mine company launched an indefinite general strike due to dissatisfaction with the management's "neglect of employee rights," demanding the implementation of the national mining industry collective labor agreement and the removal of the company's general manager, Peter Gaevskiy [8] - Australia's Canyon Resources plans to invest a total of 447 million US dollars in developing the Mimeta bauxite mine in Cameroon. Over 70% of the funds (about 176.8 million Central African francs) will be used for purchasing railway equipment, including ordering 22 locomotives from CRRC and 560 open - top wagons from India's Texmaco to meet the annual transportation demand of 10 million tons of ore [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas risk - aversion sentiment is fermenting. A - shares are experiencing wide - range fluctuations and increased differentiation. In the short - term, the stock market is expected to be weak, while in the long - term, there is value in bargain - hunting. The bond market is expected to be strong in the short - term [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, and the short - squeeze in silver is still ongoing. The international silver price is expected to reach $60 per ounce [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the evolution of Sino - US trade relations [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a favorable trend due to good fundamentals [8]. - Alumina prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term, but the downward space is limited [9][10]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range, waiting for macro - factor guidance [11]. - Lead prices are under adjustment pressure due to the weakening of fundamental support [12]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short - term [15][16]. - Lithium prices are cautiously bullish in the short - term [17][18]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate strongly [19][20]. - Attention should be paid to the opportunity of correcting the price difference between soda ash and glass [21][22]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate under pressure [23][24]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [25]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [26][27]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [28][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides yesterday's trading data of main metal futures, including closing prices, changes, change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, etc. [30] 2. Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: SHFE copper main contract price dropped, LME copper price rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and SHFE copper inventory remained unchanged. The spot premium of SHFE copper remained stable, and the LME copper premium decreased [31]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel main contract price rose, LME nickel price rose. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased, and LME nickel inventory increased [31]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc main contract price dropped, LME zinc price rose. SHFE zinc warehouse receipts increased, and LME zinc inventory decreased [34]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead main contract price rose, LME lead price rose. SHFE lead warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and LME lead inventory increased [34]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum main contract price rose, LME aluminum price rose. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts increased, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [34]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina main contract price dropped, and the national average spot price of alumina decreased. SHFE alumina warehouse receipts decreased [34]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin main contract price dropped, LME tin price rose. SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and LME tin inventory remained unchanged [34]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold and silver prices rose. There were changes in the price differences between futures and spot prices of gold and silver [34]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore futures had different trends. There were also changes in relevant price differences and shipping rates [36]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke futures rose. There were changes in price differences and basis [36]. - **Lithium**: The price of lithium carbonate futures rose, and relevant spot prices remained stable [36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon futures rose, and relevant spot prices had different trends [36]. - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: CBOT soybean and bean oil prices rose, and the prices of bean and rapeseed meal futures had different trends. There were also changes in import prices and price differences [36][38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has shown signs of easing tensions, with the US dollar index falling and US stocks rising. The Fed is considering accelerating interest - rate cuts. Domestically, the economy shows weak recovery, with A - shares rebounding on low volume. In the short term, the stock market is expected to be volatile and weak, while in the long term, there is value in bargain - hunting. The bond market is slightly adjusted [2][3]. - Precious metals are supported by safe - haven sentiment, and their prices are expected to continue rising due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed's dovish remarks, and Sino - US trade tensions [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to increased macro - disturbances and a tight supply at the mine end [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and favorable pattern as inventory is likely to be reduced again [8]. - Alumina prices are under pressure in the short term due to high domestic production capacity and expected arrival of imported alumina [9]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to tense trade situations, weak downstream consumption, and a cooling export expectation [10]. - Lead prices face increasing pressure as LME inventories rise, domestic supply eases, and consumption shows limited improvement [11]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level and show strong resilience due to limited improvement in the raw - material end and low LME inventories [12][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level due to a loose supply pattern and insufficient downstream demand [14][15]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate as there is a game between bulls and bears, with inventory pressure and uncertain technical signals [16][17]. - Steel and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak market sentiment, high supply pressure, and uncertain demand [18][19]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the repeated Sino - US game sentiment and other factors [20][21]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate widely due to trade uncertainties, changes in import and export volumes, and Indonesia's plan to increase export taxes [23][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US officials responded to China's expanded rare - earth export control, and the Fed's Milan called for accelerating interest - rate cuts. US stocks rose, the dollar index fell to 98.6, the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to 4.0%, gold prices exceeded $4200 per ounce, copper prices rose, and oil prices fell [2]. - Domestic: In September, CPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.3%, core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.3%. New social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed to the lowest point of the year. A - shares rebounded on low volume, and the bond market was slightly adjusted [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious - metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.48% to $4224.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.76% to $52.53 per ounce. Factors such as the extended US government shutdown, dovish remarks from the Fed, and Sino - US trade tensions supported the price increase. The market expects interest - rate cuts in October and December. It is expected that precious - metal prices will continue to rise [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper stopped falling and stabilized, and LME copper oscillated at night. The domestic near - month contract turned to a B structure, and the spot market trading improved. After the holiday, it entered a new restocking cycle. The LME inventory dropped to 138,000 tons. Due to macro - disturbances and a tight supply at the mine end, copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,910 yuan per ton, down 0.1%. After the holiday, the arrival of aluminum ingots was less, and restocking was active. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced again this week, and aluminum prices will maintain an oscillating and favorable pattern [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2797 yuan per ton, down 0.36%. Due to high domestic production capacity and expected arrival of imported alumina, alumina prices are under pressure in the short term [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and moved horizontally at night. Due to tense trade situations, weak downstream consumption, and a cooling export expectation, zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated strongly during the day and horizontally at night. With the continuous increase in LME inventories, the easing of domestic supply, and limited improvement in consumption, lead prices face increasing pressure [11]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated narrowly during the day and its center of gravity moved down at night. Due to limited improvement in the raw - material end and low LME inventories, tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level and show strong resilience [12][13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon oscillated strongly. Due to a loose supply pattern and insufficient downstream demand, industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, carbonate - lithium prices oscillated weakly. There is a game between bulls and bears in the market, with inventory pressure and uncertain technical signals. Lithium prices are expected to oscillate [16][17]. 3.11 Steel and Iron Ore - On Wednesday, steel futures were weak. Spot trading was at a low level, and terminal demand was weak. Supply pressure increased, and steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Iron - ore futures oscillated. The supply increased, and the demand had limited upward space. Iron - ore prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [18][19]. 3.12 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the bean - meal 01 contract rose 0.17% to 2917 yuan per ton, and the rapeseed - meal 01 contract fell 0.51% to 2357 yuan per ton. Due to the repeated Sino - US game sentiment, bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. 3.13 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm - oil 01 contract fell 0.47% to 9322 yuan per ton. India's palm - oil imports in September dropped to the lowest level since May, while Malaysia's palm - oil exports in the first half of October increased. Indonesia plans to increase the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15%. Palm - oil prices are expected to oscillate widely [23][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report cautiously bullish on nickel prices, with a "cautiously bullish" rating [3][40] Core Views of the Report - Macro层面: The Fed has started the interest rate cut path, and the monetary easing pattern is clear. The US dollar is expected to weaken, which is positive for US dollar-denominated assets. However, Trump's policies bring uncertainties, and the downward path of the US dollar index is not clear [3][40] - Fundamentals: Overseas nickel ore supply remains loose, and domestic port inventories have increased significantly. The cost of nickel iron is still under pressure, and the production of 300-series stainless steel is flat with slow de-stocking. The demand for nickel sulfate replenishment is good, and the power terminal is marginally warming up. The overall fundamentals remain weak [3] - Outlook: The macro outlook is positive, but policy risks still exist. Nickel prices are cautiously bullish, and the center of nickel prices will slowly rise this year. Attention should be paid to the RKAB nickel ore approval quota scale in Indonesia [3][40] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly. At the beginning of the month, the non-farm payrolls data was revised down, and the market bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, pushing up nickel prices. After the interest rate cut, the bullish sentiment was released, and the price moderately declined. At the end of the month, the US economic data was strong, and the stagflation risk decreased, pushing up nickel prices again. However, the Fed officials' differences on the future interest rate cut path hindered the price increase [8] - The spot premium of refined nickel was strong. In September, the premium of Jinchuan nickel rose from 2,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2,350 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the premium of imported nickel rose from 450 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton. The Fed's interest rate cut and pre-holiday replenishment demand supported the premium [10] 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - The US economic data shows resilience, and the downward trend of the US dollar index faces challenges. The weakening labor market has pushed the Fed to cut interest rates, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in theory. However, Trump's policies make it difficult to assess the relative risk intensity between economies, and the decline of the US dollar index may be more tortuous [13] - The risk of stagflation has decreased. The US consumer spending and disposable income have increased, indicating that the consumer willingness and resilience are both strong. However, there are potential risks in the consumer resilience of the resident sector, and the income structure has certain risks [14] Domestic - Domestic demand vitality needs to be boosted, and export performance is outstanding. Investment and consumption are weak, while export data is eye-catching. However, the structural difference in social financing has intensified, and market confidence needs to be corrected. The export data is good, but the export resilience still faces potential risks [16][17][18] 3. Fundamental Analysis 1. Overseas Disturbances are Limited, and the Loose Expectation of Nickel Ore Continues - Overseas nickel ore supply tends to be loose, but high-grade nickel ore is relatively scarce. The suspension of some mining companies in Indonesia has limited impact. In August, China's nickel ore imports increased significantly, and domestic port inventories have reached a three-year high, but the price of high-grade ore has not loosened [21][22] 2. Smelting Profits have Significantly Recovered, and Domestic Supply Remains High - In September, China's refined nickel production increased year-on-year, and the smelting profit has recovered, boosting the production enthusiasm of the upstream. In August, China's refined nickel imports increased significantly, and the import loss has been continuously corrected. Overall, domestic supply remains high [24][25] 3. The Cost Pressure of Nickel Iron Remains, and the Production Scheduling of Stainless Steel is Expected to Contract - In September, the price of high-nickel pig iron was strong. The production of nickel iron in China decreased slightly, while that in Indonesia increased slightly. The profit of the smelting end first increased and then decreased. The production of 300-series stainless steel was flat, and the market expects a contraction in October. The inventory of 300-series stainless steel has decreased seasonally, but the inventory has accumulated again recently [27][28] 4. The Profit of High-Ice Nickel Process is Considerable, and the Demand for Nickel Sulfate is Good - In September, the price of nickel sulfate was strong. The production of nickel sulfate increased year-on-year and month-on-month, and the profit of the high-ice nickel process has been rising. The market resources of nickel sulfate are relatively scarce, and the spot purchase is hot. In August, China's nickel sulfate imports increased slightly, while exports decreased slightly [32] 5. There are Structural Differences in the Power Terminal, and the Heat of the Commercial Vehicle Market Continues - In August, the production and sales growth rates of domestic new energy vehicles slowed down, but the commercial vehicle market maintained a high growth rate. Overseas, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States have increased year-on-year. The new energy vehicle market shows significant structural differentiation [34][36] 6. Both Domestic and Overseas Inventories are Increasing, and there may be an Inflection Point in Inventory Accumulation this Year - As of October 10, domestic refined nickel social inventories have increased, and the inventories of the two major exchanges have also increased significantly. In the future, the supply side may remain high, while the demand side has no obvious boost, and the spot faces strong inventory accumulation pressure. The Fed's interest rate cut may affect the inventory accumulation trend of the exchanges [38] 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The profit of the smelting end is not good, and the domestic production increase motivation is insufficient. Overseas Russian nickel resources are abundant, and there is no immediate concern about supply [40] - Demand: The real estate transaction growth rate has turned negative, and the subsidy funds for the power end are controlled, so the demand increase is limited [40] - Cost: The supply of nickel ore tends to be loose, high-grade ore is scarce, and the ore price is stable [40] - Macro: The interest rate cut expectation is clear, but policy risks still exist. The macro outlook is positive, but nickel prices are cautiously bullish [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Amid escalating Sino - US game, the A - share market has shifted to a defensive stance. Short - term stock market is expected to fluctuate weakly, while in the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market has risen in the risk - aversion mode [2][3]. - For precious metals, gold and silver showed mixed performance, and short - term volatility may intensify. The long - term view on precious metal prices remains positive, but caution is advised at present [4][5]. - Regarding copper, due to the intensifying Sino - US game, copper prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Although Rio Tinto's production increased in Q3, the global mine supply remains tight, and the cost still supports copper prices in the medium term [6][7]. - For aluminum, with attention on trade policy trends, the aluminum market's fluctuations will expand. The fundamental support is good, and prices are expected to remain favorable but with large fluctuations [8][9]. - Alumina is dominated by bearish factors and should be treated as a short - position asset due to supply pressure from long - term contracts, production methods, and imports [10]. - Zinc prices will continue to be weak as both macro and fundamental supports decline marginally. Pay attention to LME inventory and structural changes [11]. - Lead prices will be adjusted as fundamental pressure increases marginally, with supply increasing and consumption remaining flat [12]. - Tin prices will have a short - term high - level adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited due to strong supply - side support. Focus on the support of the 10 - day moving average [14]. - Industrial silicon will have a weak oscillation due to insufficient demand resilience. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from different sectors is lackluster [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices will oscillate weakly. There is a possibility of further decline, and short - term attention should be paid to the support strength at previous lows [17]. - Nickel prices are at the lower end of the oscillation range and are expected to oscillate and rise. The macro environment is dovish, and although the market is cold, the spot resources are scarce [18][19]. - For soda ash and glass, due to poor post - holiday demand, prices will oscillate weakly [20]. - For steel products (螺卷), spot trading is stable, but futures prices are weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [21][22]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate and adjust. Port inventory has increased, and although demand is high, the upward space is limited [23]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, due to abundant supply and weakening sentiment, prices will oscillate and decline in the short term. Pay attention to the support range below [24][25]. - Palm oil prices will have a wide - range oscillation. Oil prices are weak, and the market is waiting for production and demand data and the progress of Indonesia's biodiesel policy [26][27]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts on October 15, 2025, including SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [28] 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - For copper, on October 14, the SHFE copper main contract price decreased, and the LME copper price also declined. SHFE copper warehouse receipts remained unchanged, while LME inventory decreased. The spot price increased, and the LME copper premium decreased [29]. - For nickel, on October 14, the SHFE nickel main contract price decreased, and the LME nickel price also declined. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory increased [29]. - For zinc, on October 14, the SHFE zinc main contract price decreased, and the LME zinc price declined. SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory increased [30]. - For lead, on October 14, the SHFE lead main contract price decreased, and the LME lead price declined. SHFE lead warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and LME inventory increased [30]. - For aluminum, on October 14, the SHFE aluminum continuous - third contract price decreased, and the LME aluminum price declined. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts increased slightly, and LME inventory decreased [30]. - For alumina, on October 14, the SHFE alumina main contract price decreased, and the national alumina spot average price also declined. SHFE warehouse inventory increased significantly [30]. - For tin, on October 14, the SHFE tin main contract price decreased, and the LME tin price declined. SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory remained unchanged [31]. - For precious metals, on October 14, the prices of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver remained mostly unchanged, with some changes in inventory and the gold - silver ratio [31]. - For steel products, on October 14, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures decreased, and there were changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [33]. - For iron ore, on October 14, the iron ore main contract price decreased, and there were changes in spot prices, basis, and freight rates [33]. - For coke and coking coal, on October 14, the coke main contract price increased, and the coking coal main contract price also increased. There were changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [34]. - For lithium carbonate, on October 14, the lithium carbonate main contract price increased slightly, and there were changes in spot prices and spreads [34]. - For industrial silicon, on October 14, the industrial silicon main contract price decreased, and the average prices of different grades in the East China region remained mostly unchanged [34]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, on October 14, the prices of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal futures decreased, and there were changes in import prices, spot prices, and spreads [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, the U.S. government shutdown and intensified China - U.S. game have increased global market risk - aversion, leading to a joint upward movement of gold, silver, and copper. The Fed has different views on future policy paths after the interest - rate cut, while China will implement moderately loose policies and proactive fiscal policies [2]. - Fundamentally, global mine - end supply disturbances have intensified, with some major mining companies lowering their annual production guidance. The growth rate of global mine - end supply this year is less than 1%, and domestic refined copper production has declined. In September, the demand growth of traditional industries in China was limited, while emerging industries maintained a steady copper - using growth rate. Domestic inventories rebounded from a low level, and global inventories continued to increase [2]. - Overall, market risk - aversion demand has increased due to the U.S. trade policy. The Fed has differences in the interest - rate cut rhythm but basically agrees on the direction. Global economic growth remains stable under the background of wide - fiscal policies. China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies are clear. With the intensification of mine - end shortages and the tightening of the domestic supply - demand balance, copper prices are expected to return to the upward channel after shock adjustments in October [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 September Copper Market Review - In September 2025, copper prices showed a strong upward trend. LME copper rose from around $9,875 to over $10,440, and SHFE copper rose from 79,500 to around 83,800. The Fed's interest - rate cut in September and supply disturbances in major mines supported copper prices. After the National Day, despite the short - term impact of China - U.S. trade frictions, copper prices rebounded quickly [7]. - In September, downstream copper - using industries faced cost pressures due to rising copper prices. The start - up rates of copper cable enterprises and air - conditioning production decreased, while the start - up rates of copper rod and copper foil enterprises in the primary processing industry rebounded. Social inventories remained low, and the spot market supply - demand structure was in a tight balance [9][10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 U.S. Government Shutdown and Recurrence of China - U.S. Trade Frictions - The U.S. government shutdown during the National Day may delay the release of important economic data, affecting the Fed's decision - making on the interest - rate cut path. China - U.S. trade frictions have recurred, increasing market risk - aversion [13]. 3.2.2 U.S. Manufacturing Downturn and Eurozone Manufacturing in Contraction - The U.S. September ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, remaining in the contraction range. New orders decreased, while production and employment showed some improvement. The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling back below the boom - bust line. Germany and France's manufacturing PMIs declined, and the eurozone's economic outlook depends on its overall economic performance [14][16]. 3.2.3 China's Central Bank to Implement Moderately Loose Policies and Industrial Profit Growth - China's central bank will implement moderately loose policies and use proactive fiscal policies to support employment and foreign trade. In August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth from January to August turned positive for the first time, which is positive for copper prices [17][18]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Intensified Global Mine - End Supply Disturbances and Lowered Production Expectations of Major Miners - As of the end of September, the spot TC of copper concentrate remained at a relatively low level of around - $40/ton. The growth rate of global copper concentrate supply in 2025 is expected to be less than 1%. Many major mines have encountered problems, and some major mining companies have significantly lowered their production expectations for this year and next year [21]. 3.3.2 Possible Decline in Domestic Production and Limited Release of Overseas Refined Copper Capacity - In September, China's electrolytic copper production was 1121,300 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. However, due to the 770 - document and the shortage of raw materials, domestic production in October is expected to have limited upward space. Overseas, some smelters have shut down, and the new refined copper production capacity in 2025 is limited [27][28]. 3.3.3 Marginal Decline in Refined Copper Imports and the Impact of Document 770 on Scrap Copper Enterprises - From January to August, China's imports of unforged copper and copper products increased by 2.6% year - on - year, while refined copper imports decreased by 6.4%. In September, the import window was not fully opened. Document 770 increased the negative tax rate of scrap copper rod enterprises, leading to production cuts [51][52]. 3.3.4 Continuous Increase in North American Inventories and Low - Level Rebound in Domestic Social Inventories - Since September, domestic inventories have rebounded from a low level, and global inventories have continued to increase. North American inventories are still flowing in. It is expected that global inventories will remain stable or decline slightly in October, and domestic inventories will fluctuate at a low level [53][55]. 3.3.5 Traditional Industries Entering the Peak Season and Stable Growth in Emerging Industries (Except Photovoltaic) - In the power grid investment, due to the high copper price, some projects have been postponed. The photovoltaic industry is undergoing structural adjustments, and the growth rate of wind power is expected to slow down. The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the air - conditioning production in October has decreased. However, new energy vehicles have maintained a strong growth momentum, and it is expected that the refined copper consumption will recover steadily in October [61][72]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the U.S. government shutdown and China - U.S. game have increased market risk - aversion. The Fed has differences in the interest - rate cut path, and China will implement loose policies. Fundamentally, the supply side is tightening, and the demand side has limited growth in traditional industries and stable growth in emerging industries. Copper prices are expected to return to the upward channel after shock adjustments in October [77][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The weak expectation logic may return, and lithium prices will fluctuate downward. Fundamentally, upstream production will remain high due to the lack of supply elasticity. As the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" end, the restocking demand before the terminal peak season may weaken, and the fundamental expectation is marginally bearish. From a market perspective, as Jiangxi lithium mining companies submit review materials, the risk of mica mine shutdown decreases, and the increase in positions and decline in the secondary main contract reflect the market's bet on the cooling expectation of resource disturbances. It is expected that lithium prices will operate weakly with fluctuations [3][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Market Performance**: In September, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated within a narrow range. At the beginning of the month, driven by the rumor of the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Zhenxiawo lithium mine, the lithium price broke through the support level with a gap down. As the rumor was falsified, the price corrected upward. The market was uncertain about the continuous production of Jiangxi lithium mines after September 30th, resulting in a significant cooling of the long - short game and stable price trends. Fundamentally, the lithium carbonate market remained weak. The supply elasticity was absent, and weekly production reached new highs. Although spot inventory decreased significantly, the destocking was mainly due to cross - market transfers rather than industrial demand [8]. - **Price Spread**: In September, the electric - industrial price spread rebounded, rising from - 0.08 million yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 0.11 million yuan/ton at the end. The lithium carbonate - lithium hydroxide price spread was stable, dropping from - 0.38 million yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to - 0.65 million yuan/ton at the end, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities during the reporting period [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Resource Disturbance and Cost**: In September, lithium ore prices dropped significantly. The price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate (5.5% - 6%) fell from $881/ton at the beginning of the month to $812/ton at the end, a monthly decline of about 7.83%. The price of technical - grade lithium mica (2.5%) dropped from 1935 yuan/ton to 1760 yuan/ton, a monthly decline of about 9.04%. As Jiangxi lithium mining companies submitted approval materials and some obtained approvals, the market's expectation of mine shutdown decreased, and mica ore prices further declined after the holiday. It is expected that resource disturbance risks will decrease, and the cost center will move down [13]. - **Supply and Production**: In September, the production capacity of lithium carbonate increased. Many domestic and overseas projects were put into production. The total lithium salt production in September was about 95,442 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 3.31%. The operating rate was 50.28%, a slight increase of about 1.97 percentage points from August. There were structural differences in production, with a slight decrease in mica - extracted lithium production and an increase in spodumene and salt - lake - extracted lithium production [15][16]. - **Import and Export**: Affected by the rapid increase in domestic lithium salt supply, the filling effect of imported lithium salt weakened. Chile's lithium salt exports decreased significantly in August, which may lead to a significant decline in imported resources around October. With the gradual production increase of Argentine salt - lake projects, imported resources may show diversification characteristics. In Chile, Codelco may dominate the Atacama salt - lake mining business, and the salt - lake may face more policy controls [19]. - **Downstream Products**: - **Phosphoric Acid Ferrous Lithium**: In September, the production of phosphoric acid ferrous lithium was about 351,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.77%. The operating rate was 71.18%, a significant increase of about 4.58 percentage points from August. Inventory increased. The prices of power - type and energy - storage - type phosphoric acid ferrous lithium decreased. The supply increase was more significant, and the cost center decline dragged down the price [21]. - **Ternary Materials**: In September, the production of ternary materials was about 79,030 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.95%. The operating rate was about 47.59%, an increase of about 0.45 percentage points from August. Inventory decreased slightly. The prices of 6 - series and 8 - series ternary materials increased slightly. The fundamentals were stable, and the cost pressure was stronger than that of ferrous lithium [22]. - **Batteries**: In August, the production of power batteries was about 139.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of about 4.41%. Sales were about 98.9 GWh, a decrease of 3 GWh from the previous period. The production - sales ratio was about 70.89%, indicating a large imbalance between production and sales. The loading rate of ferrous lithium batteries was better than that of ternary batteries, and the supply - demand structure of ferrous lithium batteries improved marginally [24][25]. - **Power Terminal**: In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased year - on - year, but the growth rate of monthly production and sales declined rapidly, dragging down the cumulative growth rate. The new energy commercial vehicle market remained hot, with high production and sales growth rates and a production - sales ratio close to 100%. The new energy vehicle market showed significant structural differentiation between passenger cars and commercial vehicles. Overseas, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States maintained a growth trend [27][28][29]. - **Inventory Transfer**: As of October 3rd, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly. Although the market inventory decreased significantly, the factory inventory increased. The decrease in spot inventory was similar to the increase in exchange warehouse receipts, indicating that most of the spot resources flowed to the exchange rather than being consumed by production and sales [30][32]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: Due to the lack of supply elasticity, lithium salt production may remain high (neutral to slightly bearish). - **Consumption**: As the "Golden September and Silver October" period ends, the demand intensity shifts from raw material stocking in the middle reaches to the terminal consumption peak season. However, the peak season of the power terminal may be limited in intensity under the control of subsidy funds, which may drag down the resilience of raw material stocking in the middle reaches (neutral to slightly bearish). - **Resources**: Low - cost salt - lake production capacities are being put into operation one after another. Lithium mining companies involved have submitted license renewal materials, and there are no signs of mine shutdown in the market, so the resource disturbance risk decreases (neutral to slightly bearish). Overall, lithium prices are expected to fluctuate downward [33].