Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US November ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2, contracting for nine consecutive months, with a weak demand and improving output situation. The market's expectation of a December BOJ interest rate hike rose to 80%, leading to a stronger yen and a significant increase in Japanese bond yields. In the domestic market, the November RatingDog manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9, shifting from expansion to contraction. A-shares rose with heavy volume on Monday, and the bond market generally recovered [2][3]. - Precious metals: Silver prices reached a new high, but short - term risks need to be watched. Copper: CSPT may jointly cut production next year, and copper prices hit a record high. Aluminum: Despite the off - season, aluminum prices are expected to be strong. Alumina: Local production cuts may provide temporary support. Cast aluminum: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Zinc: The price center has moved up, and it is expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. Lead: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the price is expected to repair strongly. Tin: The macro and micro performances are differentiated, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Industrial silicon: The supply and demand are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Steel products: Cost rebounds drive the price to oscillate and rebound. Iron ore: The price is under pressure to oscillate. Coking coal and coke: The price rebounds at a low level, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Bean and rapeseed meal: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. Palm oil: It is expected to oscillate within a range [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][16][17][19][20][21][23][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, with new orders dropping at the fastest rate since July, factory employment continuing to contract, raw material payment prices rising, and the production index expanding at the fastest rate in four months. The BOJ governor hinted at a possible December interest rate hike, and the market's expectation probability rose to 80%, leading to a stronger yen and a significant increase in Japanese bond yields. The US dollar index fell back to the 99 mark and then rebounded, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.08%. Silver and copper reached new highs and then fell, while oil prices closed higher [2]. - Domestic: The November RatingDog manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9, shifting from expansion to contraction. New export orders grew at the fastest rate in eight months, indicating a recovery in external demand, but the overall sentiment remained in the contraction range. A - shares rose with heavy volume on Monday, and the bond market generally recovered [3]. Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices continued to rise on Monday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.24% to $4265.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.25% to $58.45 per ounce, with silver hitting a new record high. COMEX platinum and palladium futures showed a trend of rising and then falling and closed slightly lower. The tightness of New York silver spot and potential delivery risks boosted silver prices. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December exceeded 87%. It's not advisable to chase high in the short term, and the domestic platinum and palladium are expected to be weak [4][5]. Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper approached the 90,000 mark, and LME copper reached a maximum of over 11,300 and then fell. The CSPT plans to cut production by more than 10% in 2026 to address the distorted copper concentrate processing fees. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected and the previous value, hitting a four - month low. The weak US manufacturing data and the uncertainty of the Fed's leadership have an impact on copper prices. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain strongly oscillating at a high level [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,865 yuan/ton, up 1.65%. The LME closed at $2888 per ton, up 0.8%. The aluminum ingot inventory was flat, and the consumption in the off - season showed resilience. With copper prices hitting a new high, aluminum prices are expected to be strong [8][9]. Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2677 yuan/ton, down 1.51%. A Shanxi alumina enterprise will start maintenance, reducing the daily output by about 2000 tons. The fundamentals of alumina are still bearish, but local production cuts may provide temporary support [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 21,055 yuan/ton, up 1.54%. The end - of - year order rush and tight raw materials support the price. Cast aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. Zinc - On Monday, the price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc rose with increased positions, and LME zinc strengthened. The supply pressure has been continuously relieved, with the LME0 - 3 premium soaring and processing fees dropping significantly. The production in November was lower than expected, and it is expected to decrease in December. Short - term zinc prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited [12][13]. Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly during the day and opened slightly higher at night, and LME lead rebounded. The supply in December is expected to decrease, and the demand for lead - acid batteries has improved marginally. Lead prices are expected to repair strongly [14][15]. Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose and then fell during the day and oscillated horizontally at night, and LME tin first declined and then rebounded. The production in November was lower than expected, and it is expected to increase in December. The potential supply disruption in Congo due to the conflict and the uncertainty of the Fed's leadership have an impact on tin prices. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The supply side is contracting, with Xinjiang maintaining a high operating rate and the southwest region's operating rate dropping due to the dry season. The demand side shows mixed performance. The supply and demand are generally balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17][18]. Steel Products - On Monday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The real - estate supply in November increased slightly. The overall supply - demand drive is weak, and the inventory reduction provides support. Steel prices are expected to oscillate, and short - term attention should be paid to the impact of capital contract switching [19]. Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The overseas supply is at a high level, and the demand from steel mills is weak. Iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure to oscillate [20]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Monday, coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The upstream supply is stable, but the downstream demand is weak. The coking enterprises' inventory is increasing, and the demand for blast furnace raw materials is poor. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - term attention should be paid to the rhythm of contract switching [21][22]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the bean meal 01 contract closed down 0.36%, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract closed down 1.46%. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing well, and the domestic oil mill's soybean and bean meal inventories have increased. The coastal oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are almost depleted. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [23][24]. Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 01 contract closed up 0.75%. In November, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and export demand remained weak, with an expected increase in inventory. Domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas, the US economy still shows resilience, with the GDPNow model predicting a 3.9% annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in Q3, driven by personal consumption and net exports. Consumption momentum is slowing, and attention should be paid to the released CPI and non - farm payroll data. Driven by rising interest - rate cut expectations and Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, overseas risk assets generally recovered last week [2]. - Domestically, the November PMI and October industrial enterprise profits further confirm the weakening of the economic fundamentals in Q4. The manufacturing PMI is 49.2, remaining in the contraction range for eight consecutive months. The construction and service industries are also in the contraction range. October industrial enterprise profits declined, with manufacturing and public utilities being the main drags. A - shares had a weak rebound with shrinking volume last week, and short - term shocks are expected to be weak [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Macro - **US Retail in September**: US retail sales were weaker than expected in September. Retail sales increased 0.2% month - on - month (expected 0.4%, previous 0.6%), and core retail sales increased 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Durable goods consumption was divided, and non - durable goods still showed some resilience but with obvious structural differences [4][5]. 2. Domestic Macro - **October Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to October 2025, industrial enterprise revenues were 113.37 trillion yuan, with a 1.8% year - on - year increase. Total profits were 5950.29 billion yuan, a 1.9% year - on - year increase, significantly lower than September's 3.2%. The single - month profit growth rate in October dropped to - 5.5%. Upstream mining profits decreased less, while mid - and downstream profits cooled significantly. Enterprises were accumulating inventory, and profit margins were the main drag on profits [9][10]. - **November Manufacturing PMI**: The November manufacturing PMI was 49.2, still in the contraction range. Supply and demand improved synchronously, with external demand improving significantly. Prices rose, and finished - product inventory decreased. The service industry's prosperity declined, and the construction industry was still struggling [12][13]. 3. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equities**: A - shares, Hong Kong stocks, and overseas equities showed different trends last week. For example, the Wande All - A Index rose 2.90%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.40%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 4.91% [23]. - **Bonds**: Yields of domestic and overseas bonds changed last week. For example, the 1 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.42 basis points, and the 2 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased by 4.00 basis points [26]. - **Commodities**: Commodity prices generally rose last week. For example, the South China Commodity Index rose 1.99%, COMEX gold rose 4.34%, and COMEX silver rose 14.37% [27]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index declined, and exchange rates of major currencies against the RMB changed. For example, the US dollar against the RMB decreased by 0.43% [30]. 4. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Domestic**: The report provides charts of high - frequency data such as the congestion index of 100 cities, subway passenger volume in 23 cities, and commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities [32]. - **Overseas**: The report provides charts of high - frequency data such as Redbook commercial retail sales and unemployment insurance claims in the US [37]. 5. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - This week, important economic data and events include China's November RatingDog manufacturing PMI, euro - zone November CPI, and US November ISM manufacturing PMI [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The macro data shows that in November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points. The National Development and Reform Commission will promote work to manage price disorderly competition [1]. - The fundamental data indicates that last week, the output of rebar was 2.06 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the apparent demand was 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coil was 3.19 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons. Overall, the industrial data last week was weak, with the output of the five major steel products increasing, the apparent demand remaining weak, and inventory continuing to decline [1]. - Overall, the supply - demand drive is not strong, inventory reduction provides support, but costs are weakening. It is expected that steel prices will mainly fluctuate [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3110 | 21 | 0.68% | 6312460 | 2463988 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3302 | 7 | 0.21% | 1917388 | 876319 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 794.0 | 3.5 | 0.44% | 1179508 | 414346 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1067.0 | - 29.5 | - 2.69% | 5442929 | 862195 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1574.5 | - 58.0 | - 3.55% | 122587 | 48293 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a fluctuating rebound. Steel inventory continued to decline, with both supply and demand decreasing. Supply contracted, leading to a rebound in futures prices, but the terminal market remained weak, with significant upward pressure [4]. - In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2950 (unchanged) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (+30) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270 (+10) Yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - The deputy director of the Building Energy Efficiency and Technology Department of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that urban renewal should be given more prominence and the construction of "four good" aspects should be systematically promoted [9]. - In October, the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars reached 2.25 million units, with a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month slight increase of 0.3%. Among them, the retail sales of new - energy narrow - sense passenger cars reached 1.288 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.3% [9]. - From November 17th to November 23rd, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.9193 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 36.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.5% [9]. - Six departments issued an implementation plan, aiming to significantly optimize the consumer goods supply structure by 2027, form 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 100 - billion - level consumption hotspots, and create a number of high - quality consumer goods [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on price disorderly competition cost identification. It will promote work to manage price disorderly competition and maintain a good market price order [9]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [9]. Relevant Charts - The content mainly includes charts related to the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot regional price differences, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [7][10][12]

⚫ 上周铜价再创历史新高，主因非美地区精铜供应将进一步 趋紧，Codelco对中国地区CIF长单美金升水报价高达350 美元/吨，印尼Grasberg铜矿大幅下调今明两年产量指引； 此外，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯及美联储理事沃勒为首的官 员支持12月继续降息以应对脆弱的就业市场环境，美元指 数回落推升金属市场。基本面来看，海外中断矿山复产缓 慢，国内将严控精铜产能扩张，社会库存震荡下探，现货 升水走高，近月盘面C结构收窄。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 铜周报 非美供应偏紧，铜价突破前高 核心观点及策略 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2025 年 12 月 1 日 ⚫ 整体来看，随着 ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 美白银交割风险再现，银价再创新高 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格震荡上行，国际金价再度站上4250美元/ 盎司，白银价格在上周五再创历史新高，国际银价因COMEX 白银交割风险上攻至57美元/盎司上方，再创历史新高， 国内白银价格也再创新高，站上13000元/千克。上周四国 内铂、钯期货上市首日波动剧烈，第二个交易日波动收窄。 ⚫ 近期，越来越多的美联储官员发布言论纷纷支持12月降 息。美联储主席选拔进入最后阶段，贝森特称，特朗普预 计将在圣诞假期前决定下一任美联储主席人选。 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 焦煤焦炭周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 矿山库存大增 双焦偏弱走势 核心观点及策略 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 下游：钢厂铁水产量下跌，煤焦需求继续放缓。钢厂的 焦炭生产加快，日均焦炭产量小幅增加，库存增加，可 用天数增加。 ⚫ 中游：焦化企业盈利情况继续好转，主因焦煤价格走弱， 生产加速，焦炭产量明显增加，但出货困难，库存增加。 全国平均吨焦盈利46（环比+27）元/吨。 ⚫ 上游：矿山生产平稳，供应压力增大，焦煤库存大幅增 加。523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为86%，环比 -0.9%。原煤日均产量191.3万吨，环比-2.1万吨，原煤 ...

Group 1: Core Views - Last week, industrial silicon prices stabilized and rebounded due to the strong price - supporting intention of polysilicon leading enterprises and the continuous warming of the industrial product market sentiment. The supply side is contracting, with Xinjiang's operating rate at 85%, the operating rate in the southwest dropping to about 30% during the dry season, and the production centers in Inner Mongolia and Gansu shifting down. On the demand side, polysilicon output in November decreased to 110,000 tons, silicon wafers faced overseas order decline, battery cell demand improved slightly, and component end consumption was sluggish with increased inventory [2][6][8]. - Although there is no progress in the new polysilicon platform, the lower - than - expected polysilicon output in November indicates an intention to actively reduce production capacity. Coupled with the improvement in traditional industry consumption, the market has returned to a bullish atmosphere. Technically, the main contract has confirmed support at the 9,000 level, and the industrial silicon futures price is expected to enter a strong - side volatile operation [3][10]. Group 2: Market Data | Contract | December 1st | November 24th | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial silicon main contract | 9,130.00 | 8,960.00 | 170.00 | 1.90% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - passed 553 spot | 9,550.00 | 9,550.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - passed 553 spot | 9,350.00 | 9,350.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | 421 spot | 9,800.00 | 9,800.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 spot | 10,450.00 | 10,500.00 | - 50.00 | - 0.48% | Yuan/ton | | Organic silicon DMC spot | 13,200.00 | 13,100.00 | 100.00 | 0.76% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon dense material spot | 52.00 | 52.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial silicon social inventory | 55 | 54.8 | 0.2 | 0.36% | 10,000 tons | [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook Macro - aspect In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth from January to October was + 1.9%, showing a narrowing trend. The negative growth in October was mainly due to the high base last year and increased enterprise costs. From January to October, the profits of high - tech manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 8.0% year - on - year, 6.1 percentage points higher than the average level of all industrial enterprises above designated size. Industries such as intelligent electronic manufacturing, semiconductor manufacturing, and precision instrument manufacturing showed good profit growth [7]. Supply - demand aspect As of November 28th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 89,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The number of open furnaces in the three major industrial silicon production areas dropped significantly to 257, and the overall furnace - opening rate rose to 32.3%. The demand side situation is similar to the core view, with polysilicon production reduction, silicon wafer sales pressure, and component end consumption sluggishness. The anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry is strengthening, and the production of the mid - downstream market is in a contraction cycle, promoting the improvement of the supply - demand balance of upstream silicon materials [7][8]. Inventory aspect As of November 28th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 550,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 tons. The terminal consumption has slowed down. As of November 21st, the registered warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased to 39,555 lots, equivalent to 198,000 tons. After the exchange issued new regulations on delivery standards, most of the 4 - series brand warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5 - series warehouse receipts meeting the new standards are actively being registered, and the current warehouse receipt inventory is maintained at around 50,000 tons [9]. Group 4: Industry News - On November 24th, Huadian Gansu Energy Co., Ltd. issued a tender announcement for the procurement of 800 MW high - efficiency photovoltaic modules for the Hexi New Energy Base in the Tengger Desert, Gansu. The project is located in the Jiuduntan Photovoltaic Desert Control Demonstration Park in Liangzhou District, Wuwei City, and the Hongshagang area in Minqin County, Gansu. The project is divided into one bid section, and the delivery is required to be completed before June 2026 [11]. - On November 22nd, the list of winning candidates for the 2025 centralized procurement project of photovoltaic modules by China Energy Engineering Group was announced. A total of 23 enterprises were short - listed, including well - known photovoltaic enterprises such as Hefei JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd. and JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. [12] Group 5: Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including those on industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, weekly production in main production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of various industrial silicon brands [14][19][21]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 46 to close at 4,114 ringgit/ton, up 1.13%; palm oil 01 contract rose 76 to close at 8,626 yuan/ton, up 0.89%; soybean oil 01 contract rose 54 to close at 8,244 yuan/ton, up 0.66%; rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 59 to close at 9,757 yuan/ton, down 0.6%; CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 1.47 to close at 52.08 cents/pound, up 2.90%; ICE canola active contract rose 9.9 to close at 651.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.54% [4][7] - Palm oil prices first declined and then rebounded in a V - shape during the week. The decline was due to weak export demand and strengthened inventory accumulation expectations, with expected inventory increase in November. The rise was due to floods in Southeast Asia affecting palm oil harvesting and transportation, which may lead to reduced production, combined with the seasonal production - reduction season [4][7] - Macroscopically, waiting for the release of US PCE data to guide the December interest - rate cut, paying attention to the US - Russia talks this week, and international oil prices fluctuating weakly. Fundamentally, Malaysian palm oil production is expected to continue to increase at the end of November with inventory pressure, but recent floods in Southeast Asia have affected supply, and the palm oil market rebounded in a V - shape. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [4][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - CBOT soybean oil main contract rose from 50.61 cents/pound to 52.08 cents/pound, up 2.90%; BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose from 4,068 ringgit/ton to 4,114 ringgit/ton, up 1.13%; DCE palm oil rose from 8,550 yuan/ton to 8,626 yuan/ton, up 0.89%; DCE soybean oil rose from 8,190 yuan/ton to 8,244 yuan/ton, up 0.66%; CZCE rapeseed oil fell from 9,816 yuan/ton to 9,757 yuan/ton, down 0.6% [5] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose from 8,470 yuan/ton to 8,570 yuan/ton, up 1.18%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose from 8,350 yuan/ton to 8,450 yuan/ton, up 1.20%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu fell from 10,170 yuan/ton to 10,110 yuan/ton, down 0.59% [5] - The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 382 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 135 yuan/ton to 1,131 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: From November 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 5.49% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 3.34%, and oil extraction rate increased by 0.41%. From November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared with the same period last month [8] - Exports: From November 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 18.8% (ITS data), 16.4% (AmSpec data), and 40.77% (SGS data) compared with the same period last month. Indonesia exported 2.2 million tons of palm oil in September 2025, lower than 2.26 million tons in the same period last year [8][9] - Inventory: As of the week of November 21, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.224 million tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons from last week and 0.253 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.1799 million tons, an increase of 0.0314 million tons from last week and 0.114 million tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 0.6671 million tons, an increase of 0.0139 million tons from last week and 0.1592 million tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 0.377 million tons, a decrease of 0.0443 million tons from last week and 0.0202 million tons from the same period last year [9] - Trading volume: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 15,080 tons, down from 21,180 tons in the previous week; the average daily trading volume of palm oil was 1,720 tons, up from 1,600 tons in the previous week [9] 3. Industry News - Malaysia's use of palm - derived raw materials to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has no negative perception risk from European buyers, and the country plans to implement a 1% SAF mandatory blending standard for international flights departing from Kuala Lumpur International Airport [11] - From January to October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to China decreased by about 29% year - on - year, indicating challenges in competitiveness, logistics, pricing dynamics, and market positioning [11] - Continuous heavy rain in Sumatra, Indonesia, has caused floods and landslides, resulting in 52 deaths as of November 27, 2025 [11] 4. Related Charts - The report includes 22 charts showing the price trends, spreads, production, exports, inventory, etc., of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and their related products in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as the commercial inventory and trading volume of domestic three major oils [12 - 50]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - The alumina market fundamentals have not improved, and the price is expected to remain weak due to sufficient short - term supply, significant imports, and high inventory levels. The supply side has increased, while the demand growth is limited, and there is no large - scale production cut plan for now. Attention should be paid to changes in the alumina supply side [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From November 21 to November 28, 2025, the alumina futures (active) price dropped from 2713 yuan/ton to 2707 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price decreased from 2858 yuan/ton to 2856 yuan/ton; the spot premium increased from 164 yuan/ton to 183 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB price fell from 320 dollars/ton to 313.5 dollars/ton; the import profit and loss changed from - 6.92 yuan/ton to 50.13 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased by 7503 tons to 258413 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse remained at 0 tons. The prices of domestic and imported bauxite remained stable [3] 2. Market Review - The main alumina futures contract fell 0.22% last week, closing at 2707 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was 2856 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic bauxite supply shortage will continue, and the import bauxite price is expected to be under pressure. The alumina supply increased last week. As of November 27, the built - in capacity was 11480 million tons, the operating capacity was 9630 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.89%. The demand for alumina increased slightly, but the spot trading was weak. The futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2159 tons to 257000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [4] 3. Market Outlook - The domestic bauxite supply is tight, while the imported bauxite from Guinea is abundant, with port ore inventory of about 29.5 million tons. The alumina operating capacity increased by 400000 tons to 96.3 million tons last week. The electrolytic aluminum industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with rigid consumption. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7503 tons to 258000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons. The alumina price is expected to remain weak [5][6] 4. Industry News - The Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) proposed to cancel the export tariff on low - grade bauxite, restrict the import of finished aluminum products, and implement preferential railway freight rates. Metro Mining plans to increase the production capacity of its Bauxite Hills bauxite project in Queensland to 6.5 million tons in 2026. The Shanghai Futures Exchange added new alumina delivery warehouses in November [7] 5. Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, spot prices, spot premiums, inter - period spreads, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and exchange inventory [9][12][15][17][19][20]

炼厂减产增多 铅价企稳修整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 铅周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价延续偏弱走势。宏观面看，美联储 位官员态度转鸽，12 月降息预期回升，美元回落至 100 关口下方，风险资产压力减弱。 要点 基本面看，LME 交仓压力放缓，但库存保持在 26.4 万 吨附近的高位，基金净多头持仓减半回落，伦铅延续 弱势拖累沪铅走势。内外铅精矿加工费维持弱势报价， 实际成交较寡淡。再生铅炼厂利润亏损扩大，对原料 压价采购，废旧电瓶报价小幅下调，成交情况一般。 冶炼端炼厂减停产较多，九华新材 11 ...