1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global recession expectation has cooled down due to the postponement of tariffs, but the geopolitical situation will become more complex in the medium and long term. The A - share market is expected to show a structural market with a stable index and style differentiation, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. - Precious metals prices may rebound in the short term due to the volatile tariff policies, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high of gold prices and the US March CPI data [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term as the global trade war enters a period of easing negotiations and the risk appetite of the global market has significantly recovered [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize as the market risk sentiment is released, and the overall supply - demand situation is still good, but attention should be paid to further tariff trends [8][9][10]. - Alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation as the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved, but there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter [11]. - Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity as the short - term market risk is quickly released with the loosening of Trump's tariff policy [12]. - Lead prices are expected to follow the London lead to stabilize and repair as the tariff risk eases [13]. - Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level as the global trade situation concern eases, and the tight pattern of tin mines in the second quarter is difficult to change [14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation as the peak - season demand is weak and the high inventory drags down the spot market [16]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate as the cost - support logic still exists although the fundamental outlook is bearish [17][18]. - Nickel prices are expected to be strong as the cost - increase logic of the increase in Indonesia's mineral royalty is about to be realized [18]. - Crude oil prices are mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but due to the volatile tariff policy, it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment eases and the fundamentals change little, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern [20]. - Iron ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment recovers and the supply - demand relationship changes little [21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate as the panic sentiment eases and the market may return to the fundamentals [22][23]. - Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize as the oil price rises significantly from the low level and the market sentiment warms up [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most economies, but still imposed a 10% global tariff during the negotiation period, and raised the tariff on China to 125%. The "global recession expectation" has cooled down significantly, and risk assets have risen sharply [2]. - Domestic: China has raised the tariff on the US, and the policy of "counter - measures against foreign countries and stabilizing growth and expectations at home" has become the main line. The A - share market has rebounded with the support of liquidity, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - International precious - metal futures prices rose significantly on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, attracting safe - haven funds and supporting precious - metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June is 72%. Precious - metal prices may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the US March CPI data [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened low and moved high on Wednesday, and the London copper rebounded. The global trade war has entered a period of easing negotiations, and the market risk preference has increased. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in May is 76%. Codelco is optimistic about the long - term copper demand, and copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed down on Wednesday. The US has suspended tariffs on some countries, and the EU has passed counter - measures. The market risk sentiment is released, and the supply - demand situation is still good. Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize, but attention should be paid to tariff trends [8][9][10]. 3.1.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract fell on Tuesday. Some alumina plants have reduced production, and the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved. However, there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter, and alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation [11]. 3.1.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated weakly during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The market risk is quickly released, and the spot supply is tight. Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity [12]. 3.1.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract continued to fall during the day and rebounded at night on Wednesday. The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand, but due to the easing of tariff risks, lead prices are expected to stabilize and repair [13]. 3.1.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated downward during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The Bisie tin mine is gradually resuming production, but the global tin - mine tight pattern in the second quarter is difficult to change. Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level [14][15]. 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract oscillated at a low level on Wednesday. The high inventory drags down the market, and the demand in the peak season is weak. Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [16]. 3.1.10 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices oscillated on Wednesday. Although the fundamentals are bearish, the cost - support logic still exists, and lithium prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. 3.1.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, and Indonesia is about to raise the mineral royalty. Nickel prices are expected to be strong [18]. 3.1.12 Crude Oil - The Shanghai crude - oil main contract oscillated on Wednesday and rose sharply at night. The oil price is mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but it is recommended to wait and see due to the volatile tariff policy [19]. 3.1.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel and iron - ore futures first fell and then rose on Wednesday. The capital - market sentiment eases, and the fundamentals of steel and iron ore change little. Steel and iron - ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, and the panic sentiment has eased. The double - meal prices may return to the fundamentals and oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices fell on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, the market sentiment warms up, and the oil price rises significantly from the low level. Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize [24]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - Provides the closing price, change, change percentage, total trading volume, total open interest, and price unit of various metal futures contracts on Wednesday, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, precious metals, steel, and iron ore [25]. 3.3 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the data of various metals on April 9th and April 8th, including futures prices, warehouse receipts, inventories, spot quotes, spot premiums and discounts, refined - scrap spreads, and other indicators [26][28][29].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250409 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：关税博弈牵制全球市场，离岸人民币贬至新低 海外方面，对等关税生效前夕，市场被"贸易战缓和"预期所左右，全球资产价格延续 高波态势。美国称已安排与日韩等亲密盟友磋商贸易，随后表示坚持对中国征收 104%的关 税，风险资产再度承压，纳指日内振幅超 7%，商品价格均有不同程度的回调，金、铜、油 跌幅分别超 1%、2%、3%，美元指数在 103 关口震荡后向下，美债受到抛售、利率大幅上 行。目前贸易冲突仍未有显著缓和信号，贸易中断下的全球衰退预期、逆全球化从博弈到现 实或将成为近期海外定价主线。 国内方面，海外资产价格巨震、地缘局势加剧下，政策密集出台提振信心，各大上市公 司纷纷公告增持和回购，央行给予流动性托底预期，A 股主要宽基指数止跌反弹，风格上红 利、价值占优，行业上反关税、农业、内需等板块领涨。在政策"稳住股市"的决心下，指 数大幅调整风险降低，后续演绎"指数稳、风格分化"的结构性行情。隔夜 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250408 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 海外方面，在对等关税落地生效前，关税博弈牵动全球市场。特朗普称不会暂停对等关 税措施，拒绝欧盟提议的互免关税政策，但对谈判持开放态度；若中国不取消上周对美国产 品加征的 34%关税，威胁对华再额外加征 50%关税。美盘市场波动加剧、避险交易暂时缓 和，美元指数回升至 103.5，10Y 美债利率从 3.87%回升至 4.2%，纳指震荡收涨，金价下跌 1.8%、伦铜创下 16 个月新低、油价创下近 4 年新低。 国内方面，A 股在假期贸易冲突升级、全球衰退预期下补跌，上证指数跌破 3100 关口 （-7.3%），中证 1000、创业板指、北证 50 跌幅分别为 11.4%、12.5%、18%，两市成交额 回升至 1.6 万亿，行业上仅在中国出口反制下的农业板块收涨。特朗普威胁对华再加征 50% 关税，在幅度上对贸易影响边际减弱，但意味着中美贸易脱钩缓和余地在骤降，隔夜美股止 跌但中概股跌幅调整超 5%，短期国内风险 ...

海外方面，特朗普关税政策远超市场预期，其宣布对所有进口美国产品征收 10%基础关 税，并对主要贸易伙伴施加更高税率，加剧全球贸易战。其中，对中国征收 34%对等关税、 对欧盟征收 20%；若计入此前对中国加征的 20%，中国商品关税总计将达 54%。关税细则 公布后市场衰退预期发酵，避险交易加剧，美元指数回落至 103 关口，10Y 美债利率最低回 落至 4.03%，美股盘后纳指期货回调超 4%，金价再创 3167 美元新高。在关税猛烈冲击全球 投资者预期后，关注各国谈判进展（10%基础关税将在 4 月 5 日执行，对等关税将在 4 月 9 日执行），以及美国经济基本面数据（4 月 4 日非农、4 月 10 日 CPI）。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250403 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普关税政策超预期鹰派，国内资产避险情绪将加剧 国内方面，A 股缩量震荡，两市成交额跌破万亿关口，市场热度持续降温，资金涌入红 利避险板块，面对特朗普对华超预期关税落地， ...

Group 1: General Market Overview - A - share trading volume is shrinking, and market sentiment is cooling. The market may continue to avoid risks related to Trump's tariff policies and a marginal slowdown in the economic fundamentals in early April. The bond market shows tight liquidity, with both short - and long - term bond yields rising [2][3] - The US economic data is mixed, with manufacturing PMI slightly weakening and the employment market relatively stable. The US dollar index is stable, and the macro - impact is limited [18] - The "equivalent tariff" policy in the US is about to be announced, and countries such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU have expressed their stances, with some warning of counter - measures [2] Group 2: Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices fell slightly on Tuesday. Gold and silver may face correction risks after the tariff policy is implemented due to profit - taking and a possible shift in trading logic [4][5] Group 3: Copper - US manufacturing PMI has returned to the contraction range, and the risk of stagflation is increasing. Overseas investment banks expect the benchmark tariff rate to reach 10% - 15%. The cancellation of the arbitration of the Panama copper mine may lead to its possible复产 this year, and domestic copper production is rising. Copper prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [6][7] Group 4: Aluminum - Macroeconomic factors dominate, and aluminum prices are under pressure. Although the fundamentals show some support on the supply side, the concerns about demand due to the US manufacturing PMI contraction and tariff uncertainty lead to a decline in market risk sentiment, and aluminum prices are oscillating [8][9] Group 5: Alumina - Alumina has sufficient supply, weak consumption elasticity, and an oversupply situation. The cost support may weaken, and it is expected to continue its weak operation [10] Group 6: Zinc - The market is focused on the tariff details. Zinc prices are under pressure due to the expected significant increase in refined zinc supply in April. However, the low - level restocking by downstream enterprises and low inventory provide some weak support, and zinc prices are expected to operate weakly [11] Group 7: Lead - The production of electrolytic lead and recycled lead in March exceeded expectations, and it is expected to increase slightly in April. The downstream battery market is in the off - season, and lead prices are expected to run weakly, with attention paid to the performance near the 40 - day moving average [12] Group 8: Tin - Due to the postponement of the tin mine复产 meeting in Myanmar and the uncertain复产 time of the Congo - Kinshasa mine, tin prices have reached new highs this year. However, the consumption growth rate cannot match the price increase, and there is a large supply - demand contradiction. Caution is needed when chasing the price [13][14] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon is slowly recovering, and the high inventory drags down the spot market. The demand shows a weak recovery, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [15] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - The supply of domestic lithium salts is expected to have limited growth, and the demand from cathode manufacturers is gradually expanding. However, due to the high inventory pressure, the price is oscillating at a low level [16] Group 11: Nickel - The Indonesian tax reform policy has been delayed, and potential risks remain. Although steel mills' stainless - steel production in April is still at a high level, attention should be paid to the production compliance rate under high - inventory pressure. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [18] Group 12: Crude Oil - Attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations. In the medium - to - long term, there is a bearish expectation due to OPEC + production increases, and oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [19] Group 13: Steel Products - Steel futures rebounded on Tuesday, and spot trading volume increased. However, the demand growth rate is expected to slow down in April, and steel prices are expected to oscillate [20] Group 14: Iron Ore - Port inventory has increased, and overseas shipments and arrivals have also increased. The growth rate of molten iron production has slowed down, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [21][22] Group 15: Bean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans rose due to policy support, but domestic bean and rapeseed meal prices fell. With a large amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving, the spot price is under pressure. Both are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the upcoming tariff policy [23][24] Group 16: Palm Oil - US biodiesel policy may increase production, boosting the price of US soybean oil and domestic palm oil. Palm oil is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the continuation of the policy's impact [25] Group 17: Metal Trading Data - Presented the closing data of major metal futures contracts on Tuesday, including prices, changes, trading volumes, and open interests [26] Group 18: Industrial Data - Provided the daily changes in industrial data of various metals from April 1 to March 31, such as warehouse receipts, inventory, spot prices, and price spreads [27][30][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Tariff expectations intensify risk - averse trading. Overseas, tariff disturbances increase market risk - averse sentiment. Domestically, the economy may cool down in Q2. Trump's tariff increase expectations disrupt global risk assets, and the bond market pressure will weaken compared to March [2][3]. - Gold prices hit a new high due to concerns about US tariffs triggering inflation and hindering economic growth. Silver prices are weak due to the decline in copper prices. The short - term gold price is expected to remain strong, but caution is needed after the tariff policy is implemented [4]. - Copper prices are expected to decline in the short - term. The US economic stagflation risk is rising, and the global economic slowdown expectation is strengthened. The copper market's fundamental tightness at the mine end remains unchanged, but the current trading focus is on overseas trade situations [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to tariff uncertainties. Although the fundamentals support is still good, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate [8][9]. - Alumina prices are expected to remain weak as the market supply is still abundant, and there is no large - scale maintenance or production reduction in the short term [10][11]. - Zinc prices have fallen significantly. The approaching of the equal - tariff policy makes the market trading sentiment cautious, and the zinc price is expected to remain weak before the tariff is implemented [12]. - Lead prices are weakly sorted due to weak supply and demand. The short - term lead price will fluctuate around the macro - sentiment and is expected to be weakly adjusted [13]. - Tin prices are supported by supply - side tightening expectations, but the approaching of Trump's tariff increases macro - risks. Short - term chasing of high prices should be cautious, and attention should be paid to the situation in Myanmar [14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are bottom - oscillating. High inventory restricts the upward momentum of the spot market, and the short - term price is expected to continue to build the bottom [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating at a low level. High inventory suppresses demand, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate [18]. - Nickel prices may fluctuate. The cost and demand drive the nickel - iron price to be strong, but the stainless - steel inventory pressure may affect the demand for nickel - iron. Pay attention to the implementation of Indonesian policies [19][20]. - Crude oil prices have risen due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict. The short - term oil market may be affected by emotions, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. - Steel prices are oscillating. The demand growth rate is slowing down, and attention should be paid to the impact of the main contract change on the market [22]. - Iron ore prices are mainly oscillating. The overseas supply has increased, and the iron - water production growth rate has slowed down [23][24]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. The USDA's end - of - month report is relatively neutral, and the domestic soybean inventory decline is slowing down [25][26]. - Palm oil prices may oscillate within a range. The export of Malaysian palm oil may increase, and the domestic palm oil is slowly destocking [27][28]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of major futures markets yesterday, including contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc., with details of closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units [29]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - The table presents the industrial data of various metals on March 31 and March 28, including price changes, inventory changes, and other information of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal [30][33][35].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Macro aspect: The US "reciprocal tariff" is about to be implemented, leading to strong market risk - aversion sentiment. The Fed's policy direction may be more volatile. US economic data in Q4 were generally good, but demand - side performance declined [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Nickel ore shortage persists, with the price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore rising. Nickel - iron has high cost and demand, with low inventory and a strong price trend. However, downstream stainless - steel has high inventory, and the resilience of demand is questionable. The nickel sulfate market has little change, with a slight price increase. Driven by export profits, domestic pure - nickel production and export scale have reached new highs, and the domestic bearish pattern continues [3]. - Future outlook: Indonesian policy disturbances are coming, and price fluctuations may intensify. The new tax - reform policy may increase the cost of pure nickel by $400 - 600 per ton. Domestically, the bearish fundamental expectation may deepen marginally, as stainless - steel high inventory and low probability of high production in April, along with pessimism in the negative - electrode material factories, suggest weak demand, while supply may remain high due to export profits [3][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 129,190 yuan/ton on March 21, 2025, to 131,600 yuan/ton on March 28, 2025, an increase of 2,410 yuan/ton. LME nickel price rose from $16,057/ton to $16,380/ton, an increase of $323/ton. LME inventory decreased by 372 tons to 200,304 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 472 tons to 26,799 tons. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of Russian nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 5 yuan/nickel point, and stainless - steel inventory decreased by 14,500 tons to 957,000 tons [4]. 2. Market Review - **Nickel ore**: The FOB price of Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore remained stable, while the domestic price of Indonesian 1.6% laterite nickel ore rose. Due to the rainy season in the Philippines and continuous shortage in Indonesia, the price may rise further [5]. - **Nickel - iron**: The average ex - factory price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose. In March, Chinese nickel - iron production increased slightly, and Indonesian production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. However, stainless - steel terminal demand was weak, and inventory pressure was prominent, which may suppress the future price of nickel - iron [6]. - **Nickel sulfate**: The prices of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained stable. In March, nickel sulfate production increased, and ternary material production rebounded. The negative - electrode material factories were pessimistic about April's demand, but the concentrated auto shows in April may stimulate potential demand [7]. - **Macro**: US Q4 GDP grew steadily, but demand - related data were weak. US consumption was weak due to residents' pessimistic expectations. Whether the suppressed consumption potential can be released depends on the impact of tariff policies on the economy. Specific economic data were also provided [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: In March, domestic production capacity expanded, and the operating rate decreased, but production reached a new high. The expected refined - nickel production in March was 32,160 tons, and the export profit was $218.35/ton [9]. - **Consumption**: In the new - energy field, new - energy vehicle sales increased significantly in March, and the new - for - old policy had a significant driving effect. In the traditional field, the sales volume and area of commercial housing increased slightly, and the central bank released signals of interest - rate and reserve - ratio cuts [10]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of pure nickel increased, while the SHFE and LME inventories decreased. The total inventory of the two major exchanges decreased by 844 tons [11]. 3. Industry News - MBMA will build an HPAL factory in Indonesia with an annual capacity of 90,000 tons of nickel in the form of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) [13]. - Qingyan Environment plans to bid for 51% of the equity of Fujian Tonghai Nickel Industry [13]. - LME was fined £920,000 (about $1.19 million) for its inadequate response to the 2022 nickel market squeeze [13]. - The MHP project in Morowali Park was affected by floods in Indonesia, with production reduced for about a week, and the affected volume is yet to be confirmed [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [15][17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 44 to close at 4,420 ringgit/ton, a 1.01% increase; the palm oil 05 contract closed at 9,088 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the soybean oil 05 contract fell 36 to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decrease; the rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 106 to close at 9,271 yuan/ton, a 1.16% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 3.18 to close at 45.2 cents/pound, a 7.57% increase; the ICE canola active contract rose 40.8 to close at 613.3 Canadian dollars/ton, a 7.13% increase [2][6]. - During the week, palm oil first declined and then rose, showing an overall range - bound oscillation. Three institutions' data indicated that Malaysian palm oil production increased month - on - month, and the producing areas are gradually entering the production - increasing season. Export demand remained relatively weak, causing palm oil to decline at the beginning of the week. However, Indonesia's policy of increasing export taxes has been implemented, and the funds will be used for the promotion of the B40 policy. There is still expected support for demand growth. Additionally, Trump reached a consensus on the biodiesel policy, which will increase biodiesel production. Coupled with the unexpectedly high export sales of US soybean oil, the sharp rise in US soybean oil drove palm oil to close higher and return to the range - bound oscillation [3][6]. - Macroscopically, the US tariff policy on April 2 is still uncertain, which has caused the US stock market to oscillate and decline, and the US dollar index to oscillate. Affected by supply concerns, oil prices oscillated and closed higher during the week. Fundamentally, palm oil in the producing areas has entered the production - increasing season, and export demand is still affected by high prices, limiting the upside. Indonesia's policy of increasing export taxes has been implemented to prepare for the implementation of the biodiesel policy, which may be implemented rhythmically later. The US may increase the production of biodiesel, boosting the sharp rise of US soybean oil and providing support for the domestic oil market. Overall, palm oil may oscillate [3][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 3.18 to 45.2 cents/pound, a 7.57% increase; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 44 to 4,420 ringgit/ton, a 1.01% increase; the DCE palm oil contract remained unchanged at 9,088 yuan/ton; the DCE soybean oil contract fell 36 to 7,986 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 106 to 9,271 yuan/ton, a 1.16% increase. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 9,670 yuan/ton, a 0.21% decrease; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 8,260 yuan/ton, a 1.31% decrease; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,300 yuan/ton, a 1.09% increase [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: According to SPPOMA, from March 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield increased by 7.01%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.33%, and production increased by 5.1% month - on - month. UOB estimated that as of March 20, Malaysian palm oil production was expected to increase by 4 - 8%. MPOA reported that from March 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production was estimated to increase by 9.48% [7]. - Exports: According to SGS, the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 25 was 678,698 tons, a 4.23% decrease from the same period last month. ITS data showed a 8.08% decrease, and AmSpec Agri data showed a 8.47% decrease. Indonesia's palm oil export volume in February was 2.08 million tons, a 42% increase from January [8]. - Inventory: As of the week of March 21, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.0452 million tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 208,200 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 881,200 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 6,100 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 388,300 tons, a decrease of 34,300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 177,700 tons from the same period last year [9]. - Transaction volume: As of the week of March 28, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 14,620 tons, compared with 13,100 tons in the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 1,019 tons, compared with 265 tons in the previous week [9]. Industry News - RHB Research stated that Indonesia's implementation of the mandatory B40 biodiesel blending plan will support high palm oil prices. It is expected that the increase in domestic biodiesel blending demand may tighten global supply, and Indonesia's crude palm oil export volume in 2025 will decrease by 7%. The average price forecast of crude palm oil this year remains unchanged at 4,300 ringgit/ton [10]. - Indonesian authorities will transfer 216,997 hectares of plantation land to the state - owned palm company Agrinas Palma Nusantara. Earlier this month, prosecutors also transferred 221,000 hectares of illegal palm oil plantations to Agrinas [10]. - Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in April to $961.54 per ton. Under the new reference price, the export tariff for crude palm oil in April will be $124 per ton. Indonesia also imposes a 7.5% special export tax on crude palm oil, and the special export tax rate for refined palm oil products is 3% - 6% of the reference price [8][11]. - Despite the decline in production, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of January increased by 13.98% from the previous month to 2.936 million tons because the export volume dropped to a four - month low. In January, Indonesia exported 1.96 million tons of palm oil products, a 30% decrease from the same period last year [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][33][34][35][36][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][52].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - The consumption growth rate of new energy vehicles has declined, but the overall resilience is acceptable. The supply remains high, and the supply structure is in the transition stage, with no significant changes in the fundamentals [4]. - During the reporting period, the prices of spodumene and lepidolite both declined slightly [4]. - The cost center is expected to move down, and the fundamentals may be marginally corrected. Lithium prices will maintain low - level fluctuations. With the inflow of low - cost salt lake resources, the scale of high - cost hard rock lithium extraction will gradually shrink, and the comprehensive cost center of circulating resources is expected to decline. In April, the production schedule of battery cell factories may expand, and potential consumption is expected to be boosted by auto shows and replacement policies. The supply is expected to decline in April, but the current lithium salt is still in the inventory accumulation stage, suppressing the upward space of lithium prices. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [4]. Group 3: Market Data Summary - Imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%) price decreased from $121/ton to $118/ton, a decrease of 2.48% [6]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) price decreased from $743/ton to $730/ton, a decrease of 1.75% [6]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) price decreased from $743/ton to $730/ton, a decrease of 1.75% [6]. - The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,200 yuan/ton to 74,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% [6]. - The spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped from 72,900 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100% [6]. - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased from 73,100 yuan/ton to 73,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.15% [6]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory increased from 85,459 tons to 88,528 tons, an increase of 3.59% [6]. Group 4: Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of March 28, 2025, the warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 35,782 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 74,100 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2505 was 218,300 lots [8]. - As of March 28, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 17,365 tons, a decrease of 120 tons from the previous period. With the warming of the northern climate, salt lake lithium production has resumed, and the comprehensive cost of circulating resources is expected to decline [8]. - In February, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 12,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38.7% and a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The import volume from Chile was 7,572 tons, accounting for about 61%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 40%. The import volume from Argentina was 4,388 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.5% and a year - on - year increase of 77.3%. The export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile in February was about 14,600 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 27% and 43% respectively. The export volume to China was 12,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 25% and 37% respectively. The import resources are expected to be abundant in March and may shrink from April [9]. - In February, the import volume of lithium ore was about 567,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9% [10]. - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of March 21, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 59,211 tons, with an operating rate of 54.84%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 36,245 tons, an increase of 191 tons from the previous period. The production of ternary materials was about 13,150 tons, with an operating rate of 41.9%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,835 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous period. The prices of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate remained relatively stable. The cost side was relatively stable, and the demand for energy storage showed a downward trend, while the power terminal was relatively stable [11]. - In the new energy vehicle field, from March 1 - 23, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 622,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 30% compared with the same period in March last year and a month - on - month increase of 40%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 2.048 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34%. As of March 14, about 1.3 million applications for automobile trade - in subsidies had been received, and the trade - in consumption accounted for about 70.81%. The new policy has a significant driving effect on new energy consumption. The "Boosting Consumption Special Action Plan" was issued, and the policy resilience is expected to be strong [12]. - As of March 21, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 88,528 tons, an increase of about 3,069 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory decreased by 1,600 tons, and the market inventory increased by 4,669 tons. The downstream replenished inventory, but the demand increase was less than the supply increase, and the de - stocking of lithium salt factories was far less than the inventory increase downstream [13]. This Week's Outlook - The bearish expectation continues. The cost center is expected to move down, the fundamentals may be marginally corrected, and lithium prices will maintain low - level fluctuations. Attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Group 5: Industry News - Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars, which is expected to bring an additional $100 billion in revenue to the United States each year [15]. - CoreLithium said that the restart research of the Finniss lithium mine project was progressing well and was expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2025. The company terminated the last operation contract, completed all obligations to third - parties, and obtained 100% ownership of all infrastructure, which is expected to reduce future operating costs [15]. - Japan made an initial anti - dumping ruling on Chinese graphite electrodes, with a dumping margin of 104.61% [16]. - Tibet Summit's "Annual 30,000 - ton Lithium Carbonate Salt Lake Lithium Extraction Construction Project" in Angeles has officially obtained the "Environmental Impact Statement". The first - phase 10,000 - ton equipment has arrived at the site, and the company is promoting project construction [16]. Group 6: Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those on lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, and the production of related cathode materials and batteries [18][20][22]

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