1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas shipment volume of iron ore decreased week - on - week last week but remained at the highest level in the same period of the past three years, while the arrival volume increased week - on - week. On the demand side, due to the increase in furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season of steel mills recently, the molten iron output continued to decline. As the demand for steel products entered the off - season and the molten iron output decreased, it is expected that iron ore will fluctuate weakly [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 2961 | - 19 | - 0.64 | 9514050 | 3170785 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3076 | - 35 | - 1.13 | 3363117 | 1552234 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 702.0 | 3.5 | 0.50 | 2120072 | 716254 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 726.0 | - 73.5 | - 9.19 | 3455596 | 634111 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1308.0 | - 56.0 | - 4.11 | 134599 | 59538 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand Side**: Recently, due to the increase in furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season of steel mills, the molten iron output continued to decline. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.22 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.63 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.52 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.06 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 60,800 tons [4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, the overseas shipment volume decreased week - on - week but was at the highest level in the same period of the past three years, and the arrival volume increased week - on - week. The total global iron ore shipment volume last week was 3.1887 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 159,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2.79 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,500 tons. The total Australian shipment volume was 2.0132 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124,500 tons, among which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.7812 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 146,200 tons. The total Brazilian shipment volume was 776,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110,000 tons. The iron ore shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2.7292 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,100 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1.9708 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 143,100 tons, among which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.7425 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 163,500 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 758,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 120,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 14.46958 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 122,250 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 338,780 tons, a decrease of 4,410 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - On the 25th local time, US President Trump said that the EU requested to extend the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9th, and he had agreed to this request. Trump said that the conversation with the EU on tariff issues was "very pleasant." On the 23rd, Trump posted on social media that he proposed to impose a 50% tariff on goods from the EU starting from June 1st [9]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country reached 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%, 0.6 percentage points faster than that from January to March. Among them, the steel industry made a profit of 1.692 billion yuan from January to April [9]. - The US Federal Court on May 28th local time blocked the tariff policy announced by US President Trump on April 2nd (Liberation Day) from taking effect and ruled that Trump's act of imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries with more exports than imports to the US exceeded his authority [9]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the iron and steel industry, including the futures and spot price trends of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore, the basis trends, steel mill profit situations, steel production and inventory data, and iron ore shipment, arrival, and inventory data [8][10][12][14].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The macro - risk preference is under pressure, and the fundamentals remain weak. The output of primary lead will decrease slightly month - on - month, but the output of secondary lead smelters will recover, with a significant expected month - on - month increase. The supply pressure will increase marginally. The consumption side remains in the off - season, and due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, some enterprises are on vacation. There is a mismatch between supply and demand, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. However, the cost support is solid, and there may be fluctuations near the lower edge of the shock box [3][6][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From May 26th to June 2nd, the SHFE lead price dropped from 16,795 yuan/ton to 16,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton; the LME lead price dropped from 1,994 dollars/ton to 1,981 dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.42 to 8.39. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1,928 tons to 46,500 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 9,875 tons to 284,150 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.09 million tons to 4.94 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2507 continued to decline in a volatile manner, breaking through the lower edge of the shock box on Thursday night and ending at 16,620 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.42%. The LME lead price fluctuated sideways, ending at 1,963.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. In the spot market, on May 30th, the price of lead in the Shanghai market was 16,535 - 16,565 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506/2507 contract. Downstream enterprises were mostly on the sidelines, with some willing to buy at low prices, while others had no purchasing plans due to the upcoming holiday or a pessimistic outlook on the market [5] Industry News - As of the week of May 30th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 600 yuan/metal ton and - 35 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat month - on - month. In May, the refined lead output was 331,200 tons, slightly lower than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is expected that the output in June will be 320,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. The output of secondary refined lead in May was 222,500 tons, far lower than expected, with a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. It is expected that the output in June will recover to 267,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9% [8] Related Charts - The report provides 14 related charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, output, social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff policy remains highly uncertain, and the weak US economic and employment data lead to unclear demand and interest - rate cut expectations. There are also fiscal concerns about the sustainability of US Treasury bonds, which will intensify macro - market volatility [2][7]. - Fundamentally, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the downstream consumption has certain resilience. With production based on sales, consumption remains stable, and there are no significant contradictions between supply and demand for the time being [2][7]. - Given the macro - uncertainty and stable fundamentals, the aluminum price is expected to continue to show a range - bound performance [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price decreased from 2466 yuan/ton on May 23, 2025, to 2448.5 yuan/ton on May 30, 2025, a drop of 17.5 yuan/ton [3]. - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price decreased from 20055 dollars/ton to 19925 dollars/ton, a decline of 130 dollars/ton [3]. - The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 14375 tons to 372525 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 6603 tons to 51819 tons [3]. - The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost increased by 316.6 yuan/ton to 16987.23 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit decreased by 300.6 yuan/ton to 3326.77 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum was 20298 yuan/ton, an increase of 166 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the weekly average price of Nanchu spot aluminum was 20186 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The macro - market is affected by Trump's uncertain tariff policy, weak US economic and employment data, and fiscal concerns about US Treasury bonds. The fundamentals show stable supply and resilient consumption, and the aluminum price is expected to range - bound [7]. 3.4 Industry News - On May 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that the casting aluminum alloy futures would be launched on June 10, 2025 [8]. - On May 14, 2025, the environmental impact report of the second - phase 400,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project of Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum Power Co., Ltd. was approved [8]. 3.5 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum current - month to continuous - one inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, physical - trade seasonal spot premium, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal changes, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal changes [9][10][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices maintained high-level fluctuations. Trump's tariff policy was inconsistent, increasing market uncertainty and raising investors' risk aversion, which limited the decline of gold prices [3][6]. - The US International Trade Court ruled that part of Trump's tariff policy exceeded his authority and ordered an immediate one-day halt to tariff collection. However, the Federal Appellate Court temporarily restored Trump's most comprehensive tariff policy last Thursday. The US Supreme Court is about to rule on Trump's $1.4 trillion global tariff case. If the Biden-era standard is continued, Trump's taxing power will be historically restricted; if the president's direct authorization and national security reasons are recognized, the risk of a global trade war and economic uncertainty may continue [3][6]. - The US April PCE data released last Friday was lower than expected. After the data release, traders still bet that the Fed would cut interest rates in September [3][7]. - Geopolitically, the second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 ended. Media reported that there were significant differences between the two sides on the ceasefire conditions [3][8]. - Currently, Trump's tariff policy remains inconsistent, especially the trade negotiations between the US and Europe are highly uncertain. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks are still high. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations. It is expected that the gold price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [3][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 771.80 | -5.50 | -0.71 | 181,246 | 178,255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T+D | 768.02 | -0.87 | -0.11 | 47,430 | 205,424 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3313.10 | -44.60 | -1.33 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 8218 | -62 | -0.75 | 522,479 | 634,627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T+D | 8192 | -19 | -0.23 | 379,350 | 3,425,600 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 33.08 | -0.56 | -1.68 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Last week, precious metal prices maintained high-level fluctuations. Trump's tariff policy was inconsistent, increasing market uncertainty and raising investors' risk aversion, which limited the decline of gold prices [6]. - The US International Trade Court ruled that part of Trump's tariff policy exceeded his authority and ordered an immediate one-day halt to tariff collection. However, the Federal Appellate Court temporarily restored Trump's most comprehensive tariff policy last Thursday. The US Supreme Court is about to rule on Trump's $1.4 trillion global tariff case. If the Biden-era standard is continued, Trump's taxing power will be historically restricted; if the president's direct authorization and national security reasons are recognized, the risk of a global trade war and economic uncertainty may continue [6]. - On May 30, Trump announced raising the tariff on imported steel from 25% to 50%. On May 31, the European Commission expressed regret over the US's decision to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum and stated that the EU was prepared to take countermeasures. If a mutually acceptable solution cannot be reached, the EU's existing and additional measures will automatically take effect on July 14 or earlier if necessary. The first meeting between the leaders of the US and Germany on June 5 may lead to Germany being "ambushed." The escalation of the trade dispute between the US and Germany may impact European exporters, especially in the automotive and machinery manufacturing industries, and also affect the business layout of US technology companies in Europe [7]. - The US April PCE data released last Friday was lower than expected. After the data release, traders still bet that the Fed would cut interest rates in September [3][7]. - The minutes of the Fed's meeting from May 6 - 7 showed that Fed policymakers generally believed that the uncertainty facing the economy was higher than before. They were cautious about interest rate cuts and preferred to wait for the impact of Trump's tariff policies to become clearer before taking action. Moreover, almost all policymakers expressed concerns about the long-term inflationary impact of tariffs, which weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut [7]. - Geopolitically, the second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 ended. The Russian delegation was satisfied with the results of the second - round negotiations and submitted a peace memorandum to Ukraine. Ukraine demanded an unconditional ceasefire in the airspace, sea area, and on land for at least 30 days. There is a possibility of a meeting between the leaders of the two countries in Istanbul, but it is too early to discuss the meeting time. Media reported that there were significant differences between the two sides on the ceasefire conditions [8][9]. - Currently, Trump's tariff policy remains inconsistent, especially the trade negotiations between the US and Europe are highly uncertain. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks are still high. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations. It is expected that the gold price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [9]. - This week, key data to watch include the US May non - farm payrolls data, ADP data, May ISM non - manufacturing index, and the eurozone April PPI data. In terms of events, pay attention to Fed Chairman Powell's speech and the eurozone central bank's interest rate decision [9]. 3. Important Data Information - The US April core PCE price index rose 2.5% year - on - year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised value of 2.7%, the smallest increase in more than four years. The "super core inflation indicator" - the core service cost excluding housing and energy - also fell to a four - year low and had its first month - on - month decline since April 2020. It is expected that as the impact of tariffs becomes apparent, the growth rate of commodity prices will accelerate in May, especially in June [10]. - The revised value of the US first - quarter GDP shrank 0.2% on an annualized basis, slightly better than the previously announced initial value of a 0.3% contraction, but still indicating that the US economy contracted at the beginning of the year. The growth rate of consumer spending was significantly revised down, reaching the weakest growth rate in nearly two years. Corporate profits plunged 2.9%, the largest decline since 2020. The core PCE was slightly revised down to 3.4% [10]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week surged by 14,000 to 240,000, reaching the highest level since November 2021. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week increased by 26,000 to 1.919 million, also hitting the highest level since November 2021 [10]. - The US April durable goods orders plunged 6.3% month - on - month, and the core capital goods orders had the largest decline since October last year [10]. - French inflation unexpectedly fell to a five - year low, and the probability of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates in June soared [10]. - In April, the US commodity import volume decreased to $276.097 billion, a month - on - month plunge of 19.8%, the largest decline on record. This led to a narrowing of the trade deficit to $87.6 billion, far lower than the market expectation of $143 billion [11]. - Data showed that in April, Switzerland's gold imports from the US rose to 111.7 tons, the highest monthly level since at least 2012 [11]. - On May 30, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government published the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in the Gazette, meaning that the ordinance has officially become law, further improving Hong Kong's digital asset activity regulatory framework [11]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - **Table 2: Changes in Precious Metal ETF Holdings (in tons)** | ETF | Gold Total Holdings | 2025/5/30 | 2025/5/23 | 2025/5/16 | 2024/5/9 | Change from Last Week | Change from Last Month | Change from Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | - | 930.20 | 922.46 | 944.26 | 832.21 | 7.74 | -14.06 | 97.99 | | Ishares | Silver Holdings | 14303.75 | 14217.50 | 14015.31 | 12869.86 | 86.25 | 288.44 | 1433.89 | [12][13] - **Table 3: Changes in CFTC Non - commercial Positions** | Gold Futures | Non - commercial Long | Non - commercial Short | Non - commercial Net Long | Change from Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 234087 | 59903 | 174184 | 10203 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 238062 | 74081 | 163981 | 2772 | | 2025 - 05 - 13 | 238191 | 76982 | 161209 | -1288 | | 2025 - 05 - 06 | 237445 | 74948 | 162497 | - | | Silver Futures | Non - commercial Long | Non - commercial Short | Non - commercial Net Long | Change from Last Week | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 73240 | 20228 | 53012 | 2970 | | 2025 - 05 - 13 | 70891 | 20849 | 50042 | 2288 | | 2025 - 05 - 06 | 67944 | 20190 | 47754 | -1498 | | 2025 - 04 - 29 | 70335 | 21083 | 49252 | - | [14] - There are also multiple data charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, non - commercial net long positions, price differences, and ratios of precious metals, as well as the relationships between precious metal prices and various economic indicators such as the US inflation rate, dollar index, and Fed's balance sheet size [15 - 41].

氧化铝周报 2025 年 6 月 3 日 成本支撑与复产博弈 氧化铝震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端几内亚矿业和地质部长在国家电视台上公开 宣布将撤销几内亚129家矿业公司的勘探许可证， 其中涉及7个铝土矿项目，本次撤销暂时对在采矿 山没有直接影响，不过几内亚雨季临近，矿石供应 或有季节性减少。供应端当前开工产能较上周并 未明显增量，但随着氧化铝价格上涨利润增加，企 业生 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentals: Lithium prices hit new lows, with frequent shutdowns and production cuts by upstream lithium salt plants, and a continuous decline in high - frequency weekly production data. Downstream pessimism is strong, with only rigid demand procurement in the spot market and limited pre - holiday inventory build - up by enterprises. Despite production contraction, inventory remains high [4]. - Cost: During the reporting period, the prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica under the Baichuan caliber decreased to varying degrees [4]. - Market: The main contract had a large - scale position transfer, with a reduction of over 50,000 lots during the week. The 7 - 9 spread quickly converged and was close to par, and the monthly spread was insufficient to cover the bag - changing cost. As of Friday, although the main contract closed higher, there were no signs of increased positions and trading volume, and a bottom could not be confirmed technically [4]. - Future outlook: Issues such as environmental protection and involution governance in the lithium - battery market have not been verified. In the short term, there may be no external disturbances, and lithium prices will return to being dominated by supply - demand logic. The overall bearish fundamentals remain unchanged. In June, the production plans of cathode material plants vary, and it is difficult to effectively boost lithium salt consumption. Although there is information about production cuts on the supply side, inventory has not been effectively reduced, and the fundamentals lack support. Technically, although the main contract tried to rise on Friday, the upper shadow ended at the 10 - day moving average, and it finally closed below the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume was limited, positions weakened, and there were no signs of bulls increasing positions at the bottom. The technical bottom has not been confirmed, and lithium prices may rebound and then fall again [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Indicator | 2025/5/30 | 2025/5/26 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) | 110 | 110 | 0 | 0% | USD/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 661 | 678 | - 17 | - 2.51% | USD/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 661 | 678 | - 17 | - 2.51% | CNY/ton | | USD/CNY exchange rate | 7.195 | 7.184 | 0.01 | 0.15% | - | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 5.98 | 6.01 | - 0.03 | - 0.50% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 0 | 6.05 | - 6.05 | - 100% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 5.98 | 6.03 | - 0.04 | - 0.70% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse) | 6.36 | 6.45 | - 0.09 | - 1.40% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine) | 6.97 | 6.97 | 0 | 0% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Total lithium carbonate inventory | 94,658 | 92,391 | 2,267 | 2.45% | ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 3.09 | 3.11 | - 0.02 | - 0.64% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 20.90 | 21.00 | - 0.10 | - 0.48% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (811) | 14.85 | 14.65 | 0.20 | 1.37% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (622) | 12.90 | 13.00 | - 0.10 | - 0.77% | CNY 10,000/ton | [6] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook 3.2.1 Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulation and delivery: As of May 30, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 33,457 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,600 CNY/ton. The position of the main contract 2507 was 261,000 lots [8]. - Supply side: As of May 30, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 1,539 tons, an increase of 350 tons from the previous period. Affected by the falling lithium prices, upstream lithium salt plants frequently had information about maintenance and production cuts. However, salt lakes were still ramping up production, and the supply contraction failed to effectively drive inventory reduction, indicating an oversupply situation. The lithium ore port inventory was abundant, and price recovery would quickly stimulate supply elasticity [8]. - Import: In April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. Among them, 20,200 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month increase of 59.3% and a year - on - year increase of 18.1%; 6,850 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month increase of 47.4% and a year - on - year increase of 101.1%. In April, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was about 21,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.12% and a month - on - month increase of 7.63%. Among them, 15,500 tons were exported to China, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 32.12% and 6.32% respectively. Although Chile's total lithium carbonate exports increased in April, the scale of exports to China decreased, which may drag down the import volume of lithium carbonate in China in May. In addition, the scale of lithium salt imports from Argentina increased significantly this period, but currently, the actual production projects in Argentina are limited, and the shipping volume to China fluctuates greatly, so it has no continuous reference value for now [9]. - In April, the import volume of lithium ore was about 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. Among them, 298,000 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The increase mainly came from Zimbabwe, with an import volume of about 106,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82%. The import volume from Nigeria was about 89,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4%. Recently, a mining company in Mali, Africa, said that due to market regulatory disturbances, the shipment of its spodumene concentrate was blocked. Currently, the company has signed an underwriting agreement with Hainan Mining. Overall, although the shipment of some lithium mines is blocked, the overall shipment scale of African lithium mines is still increasing [10]. - Demand: - Downstream cathode materials: As of May 30, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 62,984 tons, with an operating rate of 58.05%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 36,083 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,850 tons, with an operating rate of 46.29%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,700 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous period. In terms of prices, as of May 30, the prices of ternary materials weakened slightly. The price of ternary 6 - series decreased from 14.08 CNY 10,000/ton to 13.99 CNY 10,000/ton; the price of 8 - series decreased from 14.59 CNY 10,000/ton to 14.49 CNY 10,000/ton; the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased from 3.31 CNY 10,000/ton to 3.23 CNY 10,000/ton, and the price of energy - storage type decreased from 3.25 CNY 10,000/ton to 3.145 CNY 10,000/ton. Overall, the slowdown in the growth of the power terminal suppresses the prices of cathode materials. However, with the increase in the supply of lithium iron phosphate, the spot inventory of lithium iron phosphate has decreased slightly, indicating that downstream battery factories have some signs of restocking after a period of active inventory reduction. The market expects the production of cathode materials in June to be flat overall, and the prices of cathode materials are still expected to be weak in the off - season of demand [11]. - New energy vehicles: From May 1 - 25, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 726,000, a year - on - year increase of 31% compared with the same period in May last year and an 11% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market in the country was 53.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 4.05 million, a year - on - year increase of 35%. From the perspective of weekly consumption growth, the consumption growth of new energy vehicles weakened slightly in May, and the sales growth rate decreased from 32% at the beginning of the month to 31% this period. From the perspective of consumption structure, since the new - replacement policy has shown fatigue in tapping the potential consumption of residents, the consumption growth of passenger vehicles may be difficult to support the continuous growth of the industry. Currently, the policy focus is gradually shifting from passenger vehicles to heavy - duty trucks, electric boats, etc. Multiple departments have issued documents saying that they will increase the purchase subsidy for heavy - duty trucks, transportation, and other industries. According to the information from the Passenger Car Association, Beijing will issue an additional 20,000 new energy passenger vehicle indicators [12]. - Inventory: As of May 30, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 94,658 tons, an increase of 2,267 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 33,401 tons, a decrease of 1,142 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 61,257 tons, an increase of 3,409 tons from the previous period. Overall, although the weekly production of lithium salt increased, the inventory accumulation was much higher than the production increase. There was some restocking behavior by downstream enterprises before the holiday, but the supply side was resilient, and the inventory reduction of upstream enterprises was weak, dragging down the inventory reduction process [13]. 3.2.2 This Week's Outlook Lack of driving factors for price increases, lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. The issues of environmental protection and involution governance in the lithium - battery market have not been verified. In the short term, there may be no external disturbances, and lithium prices will return to being dominated by supply - demand logic. The overall bearish fundamentals remain unchanged. In June, the production plans of cathode material plants vary, and it is difficult to effectively boost lithium salt consumption. Although there is information about production cuts on the supply side, inventory has not been effectively reduced, and the fundamentals lack support. Technically, although the main contract tried to rise on Friday, the upper shadow ended at the 10 - day moving average, and it finally closed below the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume was limited, positions weakened, and there were no signs of bulls increasing positions at the bottom. The technical bottom has not been confirmed, and lithium prices may rebound and then fall again [14] 3.3 Industry News - A 250,000 - ton lithium - ion battery cathode material industrial park project in Guizhou will start trial production this year. According to the news from the Dalong Economic Development Zone, workers are currently carrying out operations such as factory building decoration, greening, and construction of auxiliary facilities at the construction site of the second - phase project of Guizhou Jiashang New Energy Materials Co., Ltd.'s 250,000 - ton lithium - ion battery cathode material industrial park. The project is expected to complete equipment installation and commissioning in October and start trial production of the production line. After reaching full production, it can produce more than 100,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials per year [15]. - Longpan Technology plans to increase the capital of its subsidiary Changzhou Liyuan by 369.7056 million CNY. On May 29, Longpan Technology announced that it plans to use 80% of the funds raised from the issuance of H - shares to increase the capital of its subsidiary Changzhou Liyuan. Changzhou Liyuan plans to use the increased capital to increase the capital of its subsidiary LBM NEW ENERGY (AP) PTE. LTD. by 14 million USD. This capital increase constitutes a related - party transaction and needs to be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for review [15]. - Tianqi Lithium's 26,000 - ton lithium carbonate project is located in Jiangsu. Recently, the Zhangjiagang Municipal People's Government has publicized the environmental assessment of the 26,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate project of Tianqi Lithium New Energy Materials (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. The total investment is 207.4845 million CNY, and the construction scale is large. Relying on the existing lithium hydroxide production workshop and lithium hydroxide warehouse, a new carbon dioxide tank area will be added. After completion, it will have an annual production capacity of 26,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate [15]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the futures price of lithium carbonate, the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide, the price trend of imported lithium concentrate (6%), the production of lithium carbonate, etc., with data sources from iFinD, Antaike, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][19][22]

光伏消费羸弱，工业硅再创新低 核心观点及策略 工业硅周报 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周工业硅再创新低，主因国内宏观乐观预期充分兑现， 海外贸易局势不稳定，以及光伏供给侧改革深入落实后中 上游硅料产能瓶颈显现。供应来看，新疆地区开工率恢复 至6成左右，川滇地区开工率低迷，内蒙和甘肃产量下行， 供应端反弹有限；从需求侧来看，多晶硅成交十分有限丰 水期企业复产十分谨慎，硅片减产厂家居多价格逼近历史 低点，光伏电池厂家排产偏紧需匹配下游存量需求，关注 行业供需的边际变化，组件市场库存周转相对健康，原料 成本坍塌后利润较为可观，关注组件企业被动跟随中上游 减产的幅度，整体来看抢装潮后行业增长动能明显不足， 社会库存小幅升至58.9万吨，现货市场重心仍在持续下 移。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic expectations are somewhat divided. The US manufacturing PMI has a revision expectation, but the seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment expectation is weakening. The fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. The cost support logic still exists, and the price may be corrected as the rumor about the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines is unconfirmed, but macro - disturbances need to be watched out for [3][11]. - On the fundamental side, last week, the rumor that the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines might be increased to 3.2 billion tons hit the previous strong cost - support expectation, and the nickel price hit a new low. After the rumor was unconfirmed, the main contract significantly reduced positions, pushing up the price. The supply of Indonesian laterite nickel ore remains tight, and the spot premium stays at a high level. The demand side has no incremental expectation, and the supply may remain high driven by export profits [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Index | 2025/5/30 | 2025/5/26 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 121100 | 122780 | - 1680 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15237 | 15594 | - 357 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 199380 | 198636 | 744 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 22057 | 22250 | - 193 | Tons | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Ore The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines remains at $48.5 per wet ton, and that in Indonesia remains at $40.8 per wet ton. The rumor of increasing the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines has not been confirmed, and the short - term cost - support logic still applies [6]. 3.2.2 Ferronickel The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 952 yuan per nickel point to 955 yuan per nickel point. In May, the expected output of Chinese ferronickel was about 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. The import volume of domestic ferronickel in April was about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. The expected output of Indonesian ferronickel in May was 142,600 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month change of +16.9%/-0.47%. Domestic steel enterprises have production - control expectations, and stainless - steel production may be suppressed. In addition, some stainless - steel plants and ferronickel plants in Indonesia are expected to reduce production, and the traditional consumption area may be sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped from 28,015 yuan per ton to 27,915 yuan per ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,000 yuan per ton. In May, the expected output of nickel sulfate in terms of metal was about 26,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month change of -20.51%/0.39%. In June, the output of ternary materials is expected to increase month - on - month, about 64,600 tons in total, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of +30.95%/+1.36%. The consumption increment in the new - energy field is not clear, and it is difficult to have an obvious driving force for price increase [8]. 3.2.4 Macro - level Trump's tariff policy was initially stopped by the court but was later postponed. The market generally believes that Trump's tariff policy will still show the characteristic of "starting high and ending low". The US core PCE in April was 2.5%, in line with expectations, and the inflation pressure has eased, which may boost the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [3][9]. 3.2.5 Fundamental - level - Supply side: In May, domestic production capacity was stable, and smelter production scheduling declined. The expected output of electrolytic nickel in May was 35,350 tons. The export scale of domestic electrolytic nickel in April was about 17,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 150.3%. As of May 30, the export profit of Chinese nickel was $53.99 per ton. The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has a strong willingness to buy at low prices [9]. - Terminal consumption: From May 1 - 25, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 726,000, a year - on - year increase of 31% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 53.5%. The consumption increment of new - energy vehicles weakened slightly in May, and the policy focus is gradually shifting to heavy - duty trucks and electric boats [10]. - Inventory: The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six regions is 41,553 tons, a decrease of 836 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory is 22,057 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 193 tons, and the LME inventory is 199,380 tons, a month - on - month increase of 744 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 221,437 tons, a month - on - month increase of 551 tons [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The 2.5 - billion - yuan lithium - ion battery cathode material industrial park project in Guizhou Dalong is expected to start trial production this year, with an estimated annual output value of 10 billion yuan after full operation [12]. - Guangxi Jinchuan Company has developed a new method for producing nickel sulfate [12]. - Trump postponed the decision on imposing a 50% tariff on the EU [12]. - The US International Trade Court initially blocked Trump's tariff measures, but the decision was postponed [12]. 3.4 Later Outlook The macro - economic expectations are divided, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. The cost - support logic still exists. Since the rumor about the approval quota is unconfirmed, the price may have a small - scale rebound, but macro - disturbances need to be vigilant [11].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250530 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普关税暂时恢复，六月市场风险将加剧 海外方面，美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税政策暂时继续生效，要求政府于 6 月 9 日前回 应；白宫官员对诉讼前景信心十足，即便败诉亦有替代路径，并称关税谈判同步推进中；特 朗普上任后首次会晤鲍威尔，施压降息未果，鲍威尔坚持政策独立性。美国一季度 GDP 增 速小幅上修至-0.2%，而初请失业金人数显示就业市场有所走弱。美国 Q2 经济基本面韧劲 尚在，但六月市场波动将加剧，聚焦关税的外部谈判与内部法律博弈、美债可持续性引发的 财政担忧，以及特朗普减税法案在参议院的推进。 国内方面，在美国贸易法庭叫停特朗普关税下，国内风险资产反弹，北证 50、科创板 块、小微盘涨幅超 2%，软件、生物科技板块领涨，两市成交额回升至 1.2 万亿，而债市承 压回调，10Y、30Y 国债利率升至 1.68%、1.93%。短期内国内经济基本面延续平稳，边际变 化不大，市场关注重心仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Federal Court's block of Trump's tariff policy has temporarily alleviated market concerns about a "full - scale trade war," leading to a significant repair of market risk appetite. However, Trump may still restart protectionist policies, so policy risks need to be monitored [2]. - The domestic economy continues to show the characteristic of "volume up, price down" after the weakening of the policy pulse effect at the beginning of the year. Although export pressure has eased, domestic demand repair is weak, and the next policy observation window will be at the end of July [2]. - Various commodities have different trends. Precious metals are under pressure due to the decline in risk - aversion demand; copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level; aluminum prices are expected to oscillate; zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly; lead prices have limited downward space; tin prices may be weakly adjusted; industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to explore the bottom; lithium carbonate prices may correct the price difference; nickel prices are weakly adjusted; crude oil prices oscillate; steel and iron ore prices are weakly adjusted; and agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil also show different trends [3][6][8][12][13][14][16][18][21][22][23][24][25][26] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 77,870 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.04%; LME copper closed at 9,566 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars or 0.31% [27]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 20,095 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 0.27%; LME aluminum closed at 2,465 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars or 0.72% [27]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina closed at 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or 0.89% [27]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%; LME zinc closed at 2,689 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars or 0.74% [27]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.71%; LME lead closed at 1,989 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar or 0.03% [27]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel closed at 119,950 yuan/ton, down 2,360 yuan or 1.93%; LME nickel closed at 15,095 dollars/ton, down 285 dollars or 1.85% [27]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 257,000 yuan/ton, down 7,690 yuan or 2.91%; LME tin closed at 31,495 dollars/ton, down 915 dollars or 2.82% [27]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 3,312.40 dollars/ounce, up 12.70 dollars or 0.38%; SHFE silver closed at 8,225.00 yuan/kg, up 8.00 yuan or 0.10%; COMEX silver closed at 33.10 dollars/ounce, down 0.29 dollars or 0.87% [27]. - **Steel Products**: SHFE rebar closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or 0.54%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.35% [27]. - **Iron Ore**: DCE iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [27]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On May 28, SHFE copper's main contract was 77,870 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day; LME copper's 3 - month contract was 9,566 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 7,850 tons to 154,300 tons [28]. - **Nickel**: On May 28, SHFE nickel's main contract was 119,950 yuan/ton, down 2,360 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel's 3 - month contract was 15,095 dollars/ton, down 285 dollars. LME inventory increased by 864 tons to 200,862 tons [28]. - **Zinc**: On May 28, SHFE zinc's main contract was 22,210 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day; LME zinc was 2,689 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to 143,450 tons [31]. - **Lead**: On May 28, SHFE lead's main contract was 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day; LME lead was 1,989 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 1,325 tons to 291,050 tons [31]. - **Aluminum**: On May 28, SHFE aluminum's continuous - three contract was 19,975 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day; LME aluminum's 3 - month contract was 2,465 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 377,325 tons [31]. - **Alumina**: On May 28, SHFE alumina's main contract was 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the previous day; the national average spot price of alumina was 3,289 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [31]. - **Tin**: On May 28, SHFE tin's main contract was 257,000 yuan/ton, down 7,790 yuan from the previous day; LME tin was 31,495 dollars/ton, down 915 dollars. LME inventory increased by 20 tons to 2,680 tons [31]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices were mostly unchanged on May 28. COMEX gold's inventory remained unchanged at 38,814,647 ounces, and COMEX silver's inventory increased by 1,070,427 ounces to 498,373,208 ounces [31][33]. - **Steel Products and Iron Ore**: Rebar's main contract was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; iron ore's main contract was 698.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. Other related prices and spreads also had corresponding changes [33]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke's main contract was 1338.5 yuan/ton, down 25.5 yuan from the previous day; coking coal's main contract was 779.0 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan [33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On May 28, lithium carbonate's main contract was 6.05 yuan, down 0.04 yuan from the previous day; the electric - carbon spot price was 6.3 yuan, down 0.08 yuan [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On May 28, industrial silicon's main contract was 7,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous day; the average price of 421 silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [33]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: On May 28, CBOT soybean's main contract was 1048.5 yuan/ton, down 13.25 yuan from the previous day; the main contract of soybean meal was 2961 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the main contract of rapeseed meal was 2604 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [33][35].