豆粕周报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 关税加剧市场波动 连粕震荡中枢上移 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆5月合约涨31.75收于1043.75美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅3.14%；豆粕05合约涨47收于2912元/吨，涨幅 1.64%；华南豆粕现货涨20收于3000元/吨，涨幅0.67%， 华北区域涨幅较大；菜粕05合约跌14收于2596元/吨，跌 幅0.54%；广西菜粕现货涨30收于2450元/吨，涨幅1.24%。 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责 ...

核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价大幅下跌。宏观面看，周中特朗普关税 政策大转弯，对数十个国家暂停征收对等关税 90 天。周 末"豁免了部分电子产品对等关税"，但随后又出现反转， 只是暂停征收，之后将转为其他税率。美国 3 月通胀超预 期回落，市场押注美联储 6 月降息，同时美联储官员释放 救市言论，市场避险情绪改善。国内官媒密集发声，稳股 市稳市场信心，市场期待政策加速出台。基本面看，CZSPT 发布了二季度进口锌精矿采购指导价为 70 -90 美元/干 吨。锌价高位回落，但炼厂利润未有太大冲击，提产驱动 不减。同时，沪伦比价回升，锌锭进口窗口开启，将缓解 现货紧张的情况。需求端看，终端补货稳定提振镀锌企业 排产，同时铁塔订单亮眼、关税缓冲期带动抢出口订单增 加，镀锌企业开工回升；节后企业复工且地产五金、汽配、 电子订单变现较好，压铸锌合金企业开工回升；终端各版 块订单改善，氧化锌企业开工环比小增。下游消费环比改 善，逢低采买积极性较高，带动周度去库 0.7 万吨。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 ...

李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 棕榈油周报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 原油拖累油脂市场 棕榈油震荡走弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主力跌276收于4214林吉特/吨，跌幅 6.15%；棕榈油05合约跌450收于8748元/吨，跌幅4.89%； 豆油05合约跌190收于7712元/吨，跌幅2.4%；菜油05合约 跌224收于9310元/吨，跌幅2.35%；CBOT美豆油主连涨0.68 收于 ...

核心观点及策略 铜周报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 对等关税暂缓，铜企稳向上 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周铜价企稳反弹，主因美国暂缓对等关税期限，而中方 姿态强硬无惧正面对抗，中欧积极磋商维护全球供应链稳 定，美元指数持续走弱提振金属市场，美国3月核心通胀 降温令美联储操作降息具有一定空间，全球避险情绪得到 一定程度改善；国内方面，中央汇金类平准基金入市并大 幅增持中国股市，央行发声坚决 ...

2025 年 4 月 14 日 政策落地在即 镍价或偏强运行 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 | | | 上周市场重要数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/4/11 | 2025/4/2 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | SHFE 镍 | 121300 | 129460 | -8160 | 元/吨 | | LME 镍 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Demand side: Last week, the number of blast furnace restarts was equivalent to that of overhauls, production profit decreased, and the growth rate of molten iron output slowed down. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.28%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.87 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4022 million tons, a 14,900 - ton increase from the previous week and a 154,700 - ton increase year - on - year [2][5]. - Supply side: Last week, both the shipment and arrival of foreign iron ore decreased month - on - month, and the port inventory declined. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2.393 million tons, a 254,800 - ton decrease from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 14.83102 billion tons, a 112,390 - ton decrease from the previous week, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 830 tons [2][6]. - Overall: Affected by the previous shipments, the number of arriving ships and the arrival volume decreased last week. Considering the demand side, the number of blast furnace restarts was equivalent to that of overhauls, production profit decreased, and the growth rate of molten iron output slowed down. On the macro - level, the US exempted some Chinese products from "reciprocal tariffs", easing the tariff sentiment. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate and stabilize [2][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3131 | - 33 | - 1.04 | 12,913,972 | 2,995,110 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3242 | - 118 | - 3.51 | 4,398,093 | 1,164,621 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 708.0 | - 80.5 | - 10.21 | 2,801,968 | 481,877 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 892.5 | - 108.5 | - 10.84 | 2,364,567 | 445,365 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1522.0 | - 106.5 | - 6.54 | 156,461 | 47,275 | Yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Futures market: Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated significantly. At the beginning of the week, affected by US tariffs, the futures price dropped sharply. In the middle of the week, as the US tariff policy eased, market sentiment recovered, and iron ore stabilized and rebounded. - Spot market: The quotation of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 762 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The price of Super Special powder was 623 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 139 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Industry News - The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) updated the tariff schedule on the 11th, exempting the import tariffs of goods in categories such as automatic data processors, computers, communication equipment, displays and modules, and semiconductors from "reciprocal tariffs" [7][8]. - People's Daily published a commentator article, stating that in the future, monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have sufficient room for adjustment and can be introduced at any time according to the situation. Fiscal policy will increase the intensity and speed of expenditure, and there is still room for further expansion of fiscal deficits, special bonds, and special treasury bonds. It will boost domestic consumption with extraordinary measures and stabilize the capital market with practical policy measures [11]. - EU member states voted on the 9th to pass the first - round counter - measures against US tariffs, imposing up to 25% tariffs on a series of US products, mainly targeting US steel and aluminum tariffs [11]. - Trump announced on social media that he had approved a 90 - day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" for more than 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs would be reduced to 10% [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 38 charts, including the trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures and spot prices, basis trends, steel mill profits, steel production and inventory, blast furnace operating rates, and iron ore shipment and arrival volumes, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [10][12][15]

铅周报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 铅价反弹修复 高度相对有限 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 | | | 上周市场重要数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 4 月 4 日 | 4 月 11 日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | SHFE 铅 | 17100 | 16825 | -275 | 元/吨 | | LME 铅 | 1910.5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff measures initially caused market panic, but the extension of tariffs for most countries and good US inflation data eased market sentiment. The domestic expectation of loose policies remains high. The aluminum supply side mainly involves capacity transfer, with little change in operating capacity. On the consumption side, downstream aluminum processing enterprises have stable new orders and increased willingness to buy at low prices, leading to a significant reduction in aluminum social inventory. Although the risk sentiment has cooled, attention should be paid to the direction of China - US trade negotiations and potential tail - risks of tariffs. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19,500 - 20,000 yuan/ton, supported by factors such as low supply elasticity, seasonal consumption peak, and low inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price increased from 2385.5 to 2397 yuan/ton, SHFE aluminum continuous third contract decreased from 20330 to 19595 dollars/ton, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.3 to 8.2, LME spot premium decreased from - 31.71 to - 37.46 dollars/ton, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 14525 tons to 442225 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 26388 tons to 105244 tons, aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.1 tons to 74.4 tons, and aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.94 tons to 23.51 tons [4]. 3.2 Market Review - In the spot market, the Yangtze River spot weekly average price was 19758 yuan/ton, a decrease of 799.5 yuan/ton from last week; the Southern Reserve spot weekly average price was 19698 yuan/ton, a decrease of 824.5 yuan/ton from last week. In the macro - aspect, the US's tariff measures and the European's response affected the market. The US March CPI growth rate decreased significantly, but inflation may rise after tariff increases. The market is still cautious [5]. - In the consumption end, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate decreased by 0.38% to 62.2%. The industry will continue the pattern of "demand stratification and profit reconstruction". Three variables need to be focused on, and the SMM predicts that the operating rate may drop to 61.5% next week [6]. - In terms of inventory, on April 7, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 3.0 tons compared with Monday and 2.1 tons compared with last Thursday; the domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory decreased by 1.29 tons compared with Monday [7]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The extension of tariffs by Trump has cooled the market risk sentiment, but attention should be paid to the China - US trade negotiation and potential tariff tail - risks. The fundamentals of low supply elasticity, seasonal consumption peak, and low inventory support the aluminum price, which is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19,500 - 20,000 yuan/ton [3][8]. 3.4 Industry News - In March, the retail sales of the passenger vehicle market reached 1.94 million, with a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2%. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 991,000, with a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 45%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger vehicle market was 51.1%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The 350,000 - ton green - power aluminum project of Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum and Electricity Company plans to complete the civil engineering in early July [9]. 3.5 Related Charts - The content provides multiple charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous third price trend, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal change, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal change [10][11][15].

贵金属周报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 避险情绪助推，金价再创新高 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格继续维持强势运行，国际金价站上3250美 元/盎司，再创历史新高，银价在大幅下挫后上周也强势 反弹站上32美元/盎司上方。上周四特朗普对于超过175个 国家暂缓90天征收对等关税政策，但市场对全球贸易量萎 缩的担忧加剧。美元指数持续大幅下挫，提振贵金属价格 走势。 ⚫ 最新公布的美国3月CPI、PPI数据都低于市场预期，显示 短期通胀压力缓解。但市场预计关税政策可能在未来推高 通胀， ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250411 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：关税无常引发美国股债汇三杀，国内股市情绪短期企稳 海外方面，3 月美国通胀超预期降温，核心 CPI 同比 2.8%创下 2021 年 3 月来新低，现 阶段的经济超预期增长、通胀超预期回落，难以改善市场对特朗普关税政策反复无常的担忧。 隔夜美国市场出现股债汇三杀，美元指数跌幅超 2%来到 100 关口，10Y 美债利率重新迈向 4.5%，纳指盘中跌幅超 7%后 V 型反弹，美元走弱、中美贸易战升级推动资金流入黄金避险， 金价再次创下新高，铜价涨幅超 3%、油价跌幅超 3%，两者走势出现背离。 国内方面， 3 月 CPI 同比下降 0.1%、PPI 同比下降 2.5%均弱于市场预期，主要受食品 价格、国际油价拖累，目前物价偏弱表明供给侧出清、内需回升的共振仍需时日。"对外反 制，对内稳增长"政策预计近期将加速落地，A 股缩量上涨，北证 50、微盘股领涨，在政策 预期呵护下，市场情绪企稳。债券市场 ...