Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The US "soft data" has significantly recovered, with the May consumer confidence index and Dallas Fed business activity index exceeding expectations. Market risk appetite has been boosted, leading to a strong rebound in US stocks, a rise in the US dollar index, and a decline in gold, copper, and oil prices. In China, industrial enterprise profits have shown a weak recovery, and the A-share market has been volatile and differentiated [2][3]. - Precious metal prices are under pressure due to the easing of the US - EU trade war and the return of market risk appetite. Gold and silver futures closed lower on Tuesday [4]. - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on copper prices, while disruptions in overseas mines and low domestic inventories provide support [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Low inventory provides support, but the expectation of the consumption off - season exerts pressure. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate with both support and pressure. The reduction of imported bauxite in Guinea provides bottom - price support, while the resumption of production in domestic southern enterprises limits the upside [9][10]. - Zinc prices are expected to return to low - level oscillation. The market has digested the news of extended maintenance in South China, and supply is expected to recover [11]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillation. Tight lead ore supply and cost support limit the adjustment space, but weak consumption lacks a strong rebound driver [12]. - Tin prices are expected to continue high - level adjustment. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the market is waiting for more driving factors [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to decline. Supply is tightening, but demand is weak, and social inventory has decreased slightly due to reduced production [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing a large - scale position - changing. Short - term long - short competition may intensify. Attention can be paid to the effectiveness of the bottom signal of the 09 contract [17][18]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. Although macro - economic data is better than expected, weak demand drags down prices [19][20]. - Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. OPEC + is expected to maintain significant production increases in July, and the US - Iran negotiation has eased contradictions [21]. - Steel prices are expected to run weakly. Spot trading volume has increased slightly, but demand is weak, and the market sentiment is poor [22]. - Iron ore prices are expected to run weakly. Supply pressure is emerging, and demand is weakening as the steel market enters the off - season [23][24]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate. US soybean sowing progress is slightly lower than expected, and Brazilian exports are normal. Rapeseed meal prices are supported by tight supply [25][26]. - Palm oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate. There is no clear driving factor, and the market is waiting for new information [27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - SHFE copper closed at 77,900 yuan/ton, down 0.47%; LME copper closed at 9,596 dollars/ton, down 0.19% [28]. - SHFE aluminum closed at 20,040 yuan/ton, down 0.57%; LME aluminum closed at 2,483 dollars/ton, up 0.69% [28]. - SHFE zinc closed at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.65%; LME zinc closed at 2,709 dollars/ton, down 0.13% [28]. - SHFE lead closed at 16,825 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; LME lead closed at 1,989 dollars/ton, down 0.28% [28]. - SHFE nickel closed at 122,310 yuan/ton, down 0.38%; LME nickel closed at 15,380 dollars/ton, down 1.22% [28]. - SHFE tin closed at 264,050 yuan/ton, down 0.21%; LME tin data was not available [28]. - COMEX gold closed at 3,327.40 dollars/ounce, down 0.90%; SHFE silver closed at 8,217.00 yuan/kg, down 0.76%; COMEX silver closed at 33.39 dollars/ounce, down 0.76% [28]. - SHFE rebar closed at 2,980 yuan/ton, down 0.80%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,111 yuan/ton, down 0.86% [28]. - DCE iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 1.13% [28]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, SHFE copper主力 was at 77,900 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan; LME copper 3 - month was at 9,596 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 2,575 tons to 162,150 tons [29]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel主力 was at 122,310 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan; LME nickel 3 - month was at 15,380 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 199,998 tons [29]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc主力 was at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; LME zinc was at 2,709 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 2,350 tons to 151,150 tons [30]. - For lead, SHFE lead主力 was at 16,825 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; LME lead was at 1,988.5 dollars/ton, down 5.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 292,375 tons [30]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum连三 was at 19,925 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; LME aluminum 3 - month was at 2,483 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 381,575 tons [30]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina主力 was at 3,018 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the national average spot price of alumina was 3,275 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [30]. - For tin, SHFE tin主力 was at 264,050 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan; LME tin data was not available. LME inventory decreased by 2,665 tons to 0 tons [30]. - For precious metals, there were no significant changes in SHFE gold and silver prices on May 27 compared to the previous day. COMEX gold and silver inventories had some changes [31][34]. - For steel products, the rebar主力 was at 2,980 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the iron ore主力 was at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [34]. - For lithium carbonate, relevant price data on May 27 was not fully available [34]. - For industrial silicon, the industrial silicon主力 was at 7,610 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan [34]. - For beans and rapeseeds, CBOT soybean主力 was at 1,061.75 cents/bushel; the bean粕主力 was at 2,966 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the菜粕主力 was at 2,599 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan [34][36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The upstream lithium salt supply continues to shrink, but the overall scale is small, and port resources are still abundant, so there is no immediate concern on the supply side. The market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, but the actual implementation is uncertain, and the market has not fully priced in the incremental demand expectations. The spot market remains sluggish, with poor downstream stocking willingness and only meeting rigid procurement needs [4]. - During the reporting period, the prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica under the Baichuan caliber both declined to varying degrees [4]. - On May 20, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to severely rectify vicious involution and achieve healthy industrial competition. On May 21, affected by price declines, there were reports of production suspension and maintenance at lithium salt plants in Jiangxi. Additionally, the market was worried about the impact of environmental protection incidents in Jiangxi on supply. Under these events, lithium prices rebounded after hitting a low on May 20 due to a large number of short - position profit - taking. However, as concerns eased, most of the previous gains were reversed on Friday [4]. - The expectation of a rush to export energy storage products has not been fulfilled, and the growth rate of the power sector has slowed down. Although the market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, the pre - scheduled production in May has been reduced, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation for June can be realized. From an inventory perspective, after the decline in lithium prices, the de - stocking rhythm of lithium salt inventory under the Baichuan caliber has not been smooth, indicating that the production cuts on the supply side have not effectively driven down inventory, which indirectly confirms the weakness of the demand side. Fundamentally, there are no factors to boost prices. Technically, on Friday, the main contract closed below the support of the 5 - day moving average, and the resistance level above the 10 - day moving average was prominent. The overall trading pattern returned to an increase in positions and a decline in prices, and trading volume contracted, with weak resistance from long positions. There is a possibility of a second round of price pressure after short - position profit - taking, and lithium prices are still expected to break through [4][15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), battery - grade lithium carbonate spot, industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot, lithium carbonate main contract, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine - grained), lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, ternary material (811), and ternary material (622) all declined to varying degrees, with the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropping by 100%. The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.35% [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 23, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 35,773 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,600 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2507 was 318,500 lots [8]. - On the supply side, as of May 23, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 15,048 tons, a decrease of 805 tons from the previous period. Affected by weak prices, there were reports of production cuts at lithium salt plants in Jiangxi. A smelter under Zhongkuang will start a 4 - month production suspension and maintenance in June, affecting a monthly output of about 1,500 tons. Yantai Salt Lake Co., Ltd. said that the 40,000 - ton salt lake lithium project put into production this year may achieve an actual output of 3,000 tons within the year, and it is likely to be put into production in the fourth quarter. Overall, although there are more definite production suspension information, the scale is limited. Supported by high imports and abundant lithium ore, there is no immediate concern on the supply side [8]. - In terms of imports, in April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. The import volume from Chile was 20,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 59.3% and a year - on - year increase of 18.1%. The import volume from Argentina was 6,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47.4% and a year - on - year increase of 101.1%. Chile's lithium carbonate export volume in April was about 21,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.12% and a month - on - month increase of 7.63%. The export volume to China was 15,500 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 32.12% and 6.32% respectively. The scale of lithium carbonate exported to China has weakened, which may drag down the import volume in May. The scale of lithium salt imported from Argentina has increased significantly, but the actual production projects in Argentina are limited, and the shipping volume to China fluctuates greatly, so it currently has no continuous reference value. In April, the import volume of lithium ore was about 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. The import volume from Australia was 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The incremental volume mainly came from Zimbabwe, with an import volume of about 106,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82%. The import volume from Nigeria was about 89,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4%. Although the shipping of lithium ore from a mining company in Mali, Africa, was blocked, the overall shipping scale of African lithium ore is still on the rise [9][10]. - On the demand side, in the downstream cathode materials sector, as of May 23, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 62,275 tons, with an operating rate of 57.3%, unchanged from the previous period, and inventory decreased by 587 tons. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,820 tons, with an operating rate of 46.19%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the previous period, and inventory increased by 90 tons. The prices of ternary materials declined slightly, and the prices of lithium iron phosphate also decreased. The market expects a slight expansion of cathode plant production scheduling in June, but the terminal consumption is about to enter the off - season, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation can be realized [11]. - In the new energy vehicle sector, from May 1 - 18, the retail sales of the national passenger new energy vehicle market were 484,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 32% compared with the same period in May last year and a month - on - month increase of 15%. The retail penetration rate of the national new energy market was 52%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 3.808 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35%. From the high - frequency data of the Passenger Car Association, the sales of new energy vehicles showed a weakening trend in early May, and the year - on - year sales growth rate decreased from 37% in April to 32%. Although the International Energy Agency predicts that new energy vehicle consumption is expected to exceed 20 million units this year, accounting for about 25% of the total new car sales, with high hopes for China's consumption growth, the purchasing power of Chinese residents may be lower than expected. With the arrival of the consumption off - season in the third quarter and the base effect of last year's replacement policy, the future consumption growth rate is not optimistic [12]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 23, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 92,391 tons, an increase of about 318 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory decreased by 242 tons, and market inventory increased by 560 tons. Overall, inventory continued to accumulate despite the further contraction of supply, and the scale of resource transfer from upstream to downstream was limited [14]. This Week's Outlook - The expectation of a rush to export energy storage products has not been fulfilled, and the growth rate of the power sector has slowed down. Although the market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, the pre - scheduled production in May has been reduced, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation for June can be realized. From an inventory perspective, after the decline in lithium prices, the de - stocking rhythm of lithium salt inventory under the Baichuan caliber has not been smooth, indicating that the production cuts on the supply side have not effectively driven down inventory, which indirectly confirms the weakness of the demand side. Fundamentally, there are no factors to boost prices. Technically, on Friday, the main contract closed below the support of the 5 - day moving average, and the resistance level above the 10 - day moving average was prominent. The overall trading pattern returned to an increase in positions and a decline in prices, and trading volume contracted, with weak resistance from long positions. There is a possibility of a second round of price pressure after short - position profit - taking, and lithium prices are still expected to break through [15]. Industry News - On May 22, Rio Tinto was confirmed as the preferred partner for the Salares Altoandinos lithium project in northern Chile by the Chilean National Mining Company (ENAMI). Rio Tinto will acquire an initial 51% stake in the project, and the Chilean National Mining Company will hold the remaining stake. Rio Tinto will provide about $425 million in cash and non - cash contributions, including its direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology [16]. - On May 20, Yantai Salt Lake Co., Ltd. stated on the investor interaction platform that its new 40,000 - ton lithium salt project will produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year, and the company will strive to further increase production [16]. - On May 21, the Zhangye Municipal People's Government promoted the investment attraction of a metal lithium project in Zhangye Economic Development Zone. The project is expected to invest 560 million yuan, and the estimated annual output value after completion is 300 million yuan. The project is currently in the planning and preparation stage [16]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends and production data of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related battery products from 2022 - 2025 [18][20][23][27][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil and fat sector continued to fluctuate. The month - on - month increase in palm oil production in the producing areas narrowed, showing a moderate growth trend. The export demand increased month - on - month, and it was in a stage of both supply and demand growth. It was expected that the inventory in May would increase. The domestic palm oil inventory stopped falling and increased, and the tight pattern was alleviated. Market news said that the US biodiesel exemption might reduce the consumption of oils and fats, which had an overall negative impact. [3][6] - Macroscopically, Trump agreed to resume the window period of trade negotiations with the EU, the risk - aversion sentiment might ease, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the oil price continued to fluctuate. Fundamentally, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased moderately, the export demand increased slightly month - on - month, and it was expected that the inventory in May would continue to rise. At the same time, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy still existed. The fluctuation range of the market decreased, and the subsequent trend should be monitored. In general, palm oil might fluctuate in the short term. [3][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main continuous contract rose 0.3 to 49.22 cents per pound, with a gain of 0.61%. The BMD Malaysian palm oil main continuous contract rose 13 to 3825 ringgit per ton, with a gain of 0.34%. The DCE palm oil contract rose 22 to 8006 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.28%. The DCE soybean oil contract rose 20 to 7774 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.26%. The CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 114 to 9391 yuan per ton, with a gain of 1.23%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 50 to 8600 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.58%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 20 to 8030 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.25%. The spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 160 to 9610 yuan per ton, with a gain of 1.69%. The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil was - 232 yuan per ton, down 2 yuan from the previous period. The futures spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1617 yuan per ton, up 94 yuan from the previous period. [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: From May 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.72%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.38%, and the production increased by 3.72%. UOB estimated that the production from May 1 - 20 would decrease by 1% to increase by 3%. MPOA data showed that the production increased by 3.51%. [7] - Export: From May 1 - 20, 2025, according to ITS data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products was 741,560 tons, a 5.3% increase. According to SGS data, the export volume was expected to be 651,381 tons, a 13.73% increase. According to Amspec, the export volume was 720,422 tons, a 1.55% increase. Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in June to the 9.5% export tariff range. [7][8] - Import: In April 2025, China's palm oil import volume was 160,000 tons, a 6.4% year - on - year increase; from January to April, it was 540,000 tons, a 22.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to April, China's soybean oil import volume was 20,000 tons, a 69.5% year - on - year decrease. In April, China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil import volume was 180,000 tons, an 18.4% year - on - year increase; from January to April, it was 910,000 tons, a 35.6% year - on - year increase. [8] - Policy impact: The US government planned to grant 163 small refineries exemptions, which would reduce the actual mandatory blending volume of US biodiesel. It was expected that the US biodiesel production would decrease by nearly 4.6 million tons, and the consumption of about 5 million tons of oil raw materials would be reduced. If the exemption period lasted for 3 years, the annual consumption of biodiesel made from oils and fats in the US would decrease by nearly 1.6 million tons in the future. [9] - Inventory: As of the week of May 16, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 1.8085 million tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from the previous week and 160,300 tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 656,300 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 204,500 tons from the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 359,700 tons, an increase of 22,400 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 39,100 tons from the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 792,500 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 403,900 tons from the same period last year. [9] - Transaction volume: As of the week of May 23, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 36,420 tons, compared with 11,140 tons in the previous week; the weekly trading volume of palm oil was 504 tons, compared with 531 tons in the previous week. [9] Industry News - MPOC stated that the price of crude palm oil in May was expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit and then gradually recover. It was expected that the global vegetable oil demand from June to September would be beneficial to palm oil, limiting the further decline of prices. India's reduction of palm oil import tariffs was expected to increase the import volume and might reduce the import demand for soybean oil. As of May 16, the price gap between palm oil and soybean oil had narrowed to $51. Due to the high - base effect, the production from May to September was expected to only increase moderately. The sluggish export performance in March and April led to an increase in inventory. The export of Malaysian palm oil to Sub - Saharan Africa increased by 24% in the first four months of 2025, and the export to ASEAN increased by 8%, but the export to other regions decreased. The production of US biodiesel decreased, and the consumption of major biodiesel raw materials also decreased sharply. [11][12] - The chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) Eddy Martono said that increasing the special export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) from 7.5% to 10% would weaken the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil products in the global market. The Indonesian Ministry of Finance decided to increase the special export tax on palm oil from 7.5% to 10% from May 17, 2025. [12] Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the spot - futures spreads of palm oil and soybean oil, the price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, export volume, and inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventories of domestic three major oils. [13][14][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated and declined. The macro - situation is complex, with the suspension of Sino - US tariffs, the recovery of US PMI in May, and a stable employment market, but the US Treasury market turmoil continues and Trump's tariff policy affects market risk appetite. In China, economic indicators in April weakened. Fundamentally, global zinc ore supply recovery remains on track, refinery profits are being repaired, and the zinc ingot import window has closed. However, domestic refined zinc supply is expected to increase, and demand shows mixed performance. Overall, due to the fragility of market risk appetite, weak domestic economic drive, and the expectation of looser supply, zinc prices are expected to remain volatile and weak [3][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From May 16th to May 23rd, the SHFE zinc price dropped from 22,500 yuan/ton to 22,215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,686 dollars/ton to 2,712.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 26.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.38 to 8.19. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 2,278 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 10,700 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.59 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 250 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc changed to ZN2507, with the price rising first and then falling, closing at 22,215 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.27%. LME zinc fluctuated around 2,700 dollars/ton, closing at 2,712.5 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.99%. In the spot market, the supply was not significantly loose, and the spot premium was relatively stable. In terms of inventory, as of May 23rd, LME zinc inventory decreased by 11,675 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 2,278 tons, and as of May 22nd, social inventory decreased by 0.59 million tons. In the macro - aspect, the US May PMI improved, and Trump postponed the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods to July 9th. In China, economic indicators in April weakened [6][7][8] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 23rd, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates remained unchanged. Canada's Ivanhoe Mines suspended the underground mining of Kakula copper mine due to earthquakes. In April 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 494,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.6% and a year - on - year increase of 72.07%. The import of refined zinc was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.66%. The export of galvanized sheets was 1.2901 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.32%, and the export of alloys was 1,281.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 472.07%. Russia's Kyzyl - Tashtyg zinc mine will continue to operate [13] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of SHFE and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums and discounts, inventory changes, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, and downstream enterprise operating rates [15][18][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The macro - level shows that from January to April, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.20315 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. The new housing construction area was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8%. The housing completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [1][4][10]. - In terms of fundamentals, last week, the output of rebar was 2.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,000 tons, the apparent demand was 2.47 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons. The rebar factory inventory was 1.88 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons, the social inventory was 4.16 million tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons, and the total inventory was 6.04 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3.06 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons, the factory inventory was 770,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, the social inventory was 2.63 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons, the total inventory was 3.4 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons, and the apparent demand was 3.13 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons [1][5]. - Overall, the industrial data last week was poor. The overall steel production increased, the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory continued to decline. The real estate continued its weak trend, infrastructure investment was stable but not strong, terminal data was poor. Coupled with the seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the impact of tariffs on hot - rolled coil exports, steel demand was weak, and steel prices were expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5]. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3046 | - 36 | - 1.17 | 6951630 | 2902476 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3189 | - 37 | - 1.15 | 2170566 | 1353196 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 718.0 | - 10.0 | - 1.37 | 1542621 | 756347 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 801.5 | - 51.0 | - 5.98 | 2192852 | 568597 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1383.0 | - 62.5 | - 4.32 | 110769 | 56994 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated downward. The real estate investment at the terminal was weak, industrial data was poor, and the expectation of weak consumption increased, leading to a decline in both futures and spot prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2940 (- 10) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3180 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3260 (- 30) yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, presided over a symposium on financial support for the real economy, requiring the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy and maintain a reasonable growth of the financial aggregate. It also emphasized increasing support for key areas such as technological innovation, consumption boosting, private small and micro - enterprises, and stable foreign trade, making full use of existing and incremental policies, strengthening the implementation and transmission of monetary policy, and maintaining a fair market competition order [6][7]. Related Charts - The content provides multiple charts including the trend of rebar futures and monthly spreads, the trend of hot - rolled coil futures and monthly spreads, the rebar basis trend, the hot - rolled coil basis trend, the rebar spot regional price difference trend, the hot - rolled coil spot regional price difference trend, the smelting profit of long - process steel mills, the profit of short - process electric furnaces in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar output, hot - rolled coil output, rebar social inventory, hot - rolled coil social inventory, rebar factory inventory, hot - rolled coil factory inventory, rebar total inventory, hot - rolled coil total inventory, rebar apparent consumption, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption [9][11][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation is mixed. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, and there are concerns about US debt expansion. However, the good performance of the US manufacturing PMI provides support for metals. The Fed may release a dovish signal if interest rates rise rapidly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable with mainly capacity replacement in Shandong and Xinjiang. The consumption of aluminum has a seasonal off - peak expectation, but the weakening speed is expected to be slow. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum 3 - month decreased by 18.5 yuan/ton from 2484.5 on May 16th to 2466 on May 23rd. SHFE aluminum continuous three increased by 35.0 dollars/ton from 20020 to 20055. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10875.0 tons to 384575 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6750.0 tons to 56070 tons. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.4 tons to 55.7 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost increased by 326.8 yuan/ton to 16670.58 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased by 160.8 yuan/ton to 3627.42 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum was 20298 yuan/ton, an increase of 166 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average price of Nanchu spot aluminum was 20186 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton from last week [4] Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, the macro - situation is mixed, supply is stable, and consumption has a slow - weakening trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [7] Industry News - In March 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 616.09 million tons, consumption was 588.36 million tons, with a supply surplus of 27.72 million tons. From January to March 2025, the production was 1797.83 million tons, consumption was 1743.96 million tons, with a supply surplus of 53.87 million tons. Guangyuan Economic Development Zone has gathered over 90 aluminum - related enterprises. In April 2025, China exported 52 million tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative export was 188 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7% [8][9] Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc., which are used to show the price, ratio, premium, cost - profit, and inventory changes of aluminum [10][11][14]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Tight Balance Expectations Heat Up, Copper Prices Fluctuate at High Levels [1] Core Views - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at high levels. The main reasons were that the US manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range and the Chinese central bank introduced loose policies to continuously inject vitality into the economy. However, the US tax reform bill will face high budget deficit pressure in the future, slightly suppressing market risk appetite. The market has fully digested the optimistic sentiment such as the China-US trade truce, and there is a short - term lack of macro - logical drivers. In addition, a global well - known commodity giant warned of the risk of a "copper shortage" this year, stating that the strong demand from China's new energy industry and the pre - demand due to US tariff premiums will break the original supply - demand balance, and it is expected that the global refined copper gap may reach as much as 300,000 tons in 2025 [2]. - Overall, the strong resilience of the US economy and a series of economic stimulus policies introduced by China continue to boost copper prices. However, after the release of the optimistic sentiment from the previous China - US negotiations, there is currently a lack of core macro - drivers, and the uncertainty of tariff hikes and trade policies still continuously disrupts the global supply chain. Fundamentally, the interference rate at the upstream mine end has increased, the domestic refined copper supply margin has widened, and the social inventory has rebounded from a low level. It is expected that copper prices will maintain high - level fluctuations and wait for future direction guidance [3][12] Market Data Price Changes - LME copper rose from $9,440.00 to $9,614.00, an increase of $174.00 or 1.84% [4]. - COMEX copper rose from 459.15 cents/pound to 486.5 cents/pound, an increase of 27.35 cents or 5.96% [4]. - SHFE copper fell from 78,140.00 yuan/ton to 77,790.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350.00 yuan or - 0.45% [4]. - International copper fell from 69,350.00 yuan/ton to 69,030.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320.00 yuan or - 0.46% [4]. - The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.28 to 8.09, a decrease of 0.19 [4]. - LME spot premium/discount fell from $31.45 to $31.14, a decrease of $0.31 or - 0.99% [4]. - Shanghai spot premium/discount fell from 445 yuan to 165 yuan, a decrease of 280 yuan [4]. Inventory Changes - LME inventory decreased from 179,375 tons to 164,725 tons, a decrease of 14,650 tons or - 8.17% [7]. - COMEX inventory increased from 169,664 short tons to 175,631 short tons, an increase of 5,967 short tons or 3.52% [7]. - SHFE inventory decreased from 108,124 tons to 98,653 tons, a decrease of 9,471 tons or - 8.76% [7]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased from 71,500 tons to 59,800 tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons or - 16.36% [7]. - Total inventory decreased from 528,663 tons to 498,809 tons, a decrease of 29,854 tons or - 5.65% [7] Market Analysis and Outlook Macro - aspect - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3, a three - month high, significantly higher than the expected 49.9. The new orders sub - index rose significantly to 53.3, expanding for five consecutive months. After the trade war subsided, enterprises' expectations for future output turned optimistic, but some producers also reported high cost - end pressure. The export orders index showed two consecutive months of contraction. The passage of the Trump tax reform bill by the US House of Representatives intensified the sell - off in the US Treasury market, dragging down the center of the US stock index and market risk appetite. It is estimated that the bill will increase the US budget deficit by $2.7 trillion in ten years [10]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The market generally expects the ECB to cut interest rates slightly again in June. The Chinese central bank lowered the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR by 10 basis points, and the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to improve the institutional mechanism for promoting the development of the private economy [10]. Supply - demand aspect - This week, the spot TC remained below - $40/ton. The underground mining operations of the eastern area of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine under Ivanhoe have been fully suspended due to multiple earthquakes. The Cobre Panama project under First Quantum restarted after signing a new agreement, and the Antamina copper mine in Peru has not returned to normal levels. The interference rate at the upstream mine end continues to increase [11]. - In terms of refined copper, domestic refined copper production is running at a high level, but the TC negotiation is approaching in the middle of the year. Maintaining negative processing fees for a long time may cause some small and medium - sized smelters in China to face production cuts. Recently, the volume of imported goods from South America has gradually decreased but is limited. The supply margin has changed from tight to loose, but the sustainability needs further observation. In terms of demand, power grid investment projects are advancing steadily. The weekly operating rate of copper cable enterprises is 82.3%, and that of refined copper rod enterprises is about 73%, slightly lower than the same period in previous years. The current concern on the demand side is the significant decline in demand after the photovoltaic installation rush. In addition, the copper demand growth rate of emerging industries is stable, with new energy vehicles performing very well, and the copper demand in the artificial intelligence field and data centers is also increasing [11]. Industry News - According to the latest WBMS report, in March 2025, the global refined copper production reached 2.513 million tons, and the consumption was 2.493 million tons, with a supply surplus of 20,500 tons. From January to March this year, the total global refined copper production was 7.2832 million tons, and the total consumption was 7.0125 million tons, with a total supply surplus of 270,800 tons, and the supply gap is decreasing month by month [14]. - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter in East Java has resumed operation ahead of schedule after a fire - related shutdown last October. It is expected to start producing cathode copper in the fourth week of June and reach full - load production in December. In March this year, the Indonesian government issued a six - month license to Freeport Indonesia, allowing it to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate [14]. - Ivanhoe has suspended the underground mining operations of its Kakula copper mine due to earthquake activities in the eastern mining area of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. After inspection, the seismic activity in the past 24 hours has significantly decreased, and the western area of the Kakula mine has been declared safe, with mining operations about to resume. The processing capacity of the No. 1 and No. 2 concentrators of the Kakula mine has decreased, and currently only processes ore from the surface stockpile [15]. - According to Mysteel research data, last week, the processing fee range of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 530 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 160 - 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The rapid decline in processing fees was due to the decline in the premium after the monthly contract change, and the high - level fluctuation of copper prices around 78,000 yuan made downstream enterprises wait - and - see, with low restocking willingness and mainly for rigid demand procurement. In the East China market, the transaction volume of the refined copper rod market increased slightly last week. In the South China market, downstream enterprises mainly took delivery of long - term orders, and the zero - order trading volume was limited [16]. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange and bonded area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, Shanghai copper basis trend, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand side shows that steel mills are increasing furnace shutdowns and maintenance during the off - season. The maintenance period is long and mainly involves large blast furnaces, indicating that molten iron production has peaked. The supply side reveals that last week's overseas shipment volume increased month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years, while the arrival volume decreased month - on - month. Overall, the fundamentals have weakened, and it is expected that iron ore will fluctuate weakly [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3046 yuan/ton, a decline of 36 yuan, a drop of 1.17%, a total trading volume of 6,951,630 lots, and a total open interest of 2,902,476 lots [2] - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3189 yuan/ton, a decline of 37 yuan, a drop of 1.15%, a total trading volume of 2,170,566 lots, and a total open interest of 1,353,196 lots [2] - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 718.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 10.0 yuan, a drop of 1.37%, a total trading volume of 1,542,621 lots, and a total open interest of 756,347 lots [2] - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 801.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 51.0 yuan, a drop of 5.98%, a total trading volume of 2,192,852 lots, and a total open interest of 568,597 lots [2] - DCE coke had a closing price of 1383.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 62.5 yuan, a drop of 4.32%, a total trading volume of 110,769 lots, and a total open interest of 56,994 lots [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated downward. With a stable macro - environment and weakening demand in the fundamentals, the iron ore price declined. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 753 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 625 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 128 yuan/ton [4] - On the demand side, steel mills are increasing furnace shutdowns and maintenance during the off - season. The maintenance period is long and mainly involves large blast furnaces, indicating that molten iron production has peaked. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.19 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.78 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.63 percentage points; the daily average molten iron production was 2.436 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 68,000 tons [1][4] - On the supply side, last week's overseas shipment volume increased month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years, while the arrival volume decreased month - on - month. The total global iron ore shipment volume was 3.3478 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 318,800 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2.7755 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 283,200 tons. The total shipment volume from Australia was 1.8887 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,100 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons. The total shipment volume from Brazil was 886,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 237,100 tons. The iron ore shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2.7061 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 283,600 tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 1.8278 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,600 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.579 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,800 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 878,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 253,100 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 14.59183 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 155,160 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 343,190 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons [1][5] 3.3 Industry News - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, chaired a symposium on financial support for the real economy, requiring the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy and maintain a reasonable growth of the financial aggregate. It is necessary to increase support for key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, consumption stimulation, private small and micro - enterprises, and stable foreign trade, and make full use of existing and incremental policies. Strengthen the implementation and transmission of monetary policy and maintain a fair market competition order [9] - From January to April, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.20315 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.31937 billion square meters, a decrease of 10.1%. The new housing construction area was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 131.64 million square meters, a decrease of 22.3%. The housing completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9%. Among them, the residential completion area was 114.24 million square meters, a decrease of 16.8% [9] - From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.47024 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment increased by 0.2% year - on - year. On a month - on - month basis, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in April increased by 0.10%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 11.7% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 6.3%, manufacturing investment increased by 8.8%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 25.5%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) increased by 5.8% year - on - year. Among them, investment in water conservancy management increased by 30.7%, investment in water transportation increased by 26.9%, and investment in air transportation increased by 13.9% [9] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to the futures and spot trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore; the basis trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore; steel mill profit per ton; the profit and loss situation of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry; the daily and ten - day steel production in the country; the inventory of steel billets in the country and Tangshan; the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil; the increase rate of the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil; the factory inventory of steel; the weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coil in steel mills; the apparent consumption of steel; the terminal procurement volume of wire rods and rebar in Shanghai; the daily and ten - day production of pig iron and crude steel in the country; the number of profitable steel mills; the daily molten iron production; the operation situation of electric furnaces in the country; the blast furnace operating rate; the port inventory of 45 ports and main ports; the port inventory by iron ore type; the number of ships at ports; the average available days of iron ore in steel mills; the total inventory and daily consumption of iron ore in steel mills; the shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil; the arrival volume of iron ore at six northern ports; the shipment volume of iron ore mines; and the number of ships arriving in China with iron ore [7][10][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The prices of gold and silver were boosted by Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, which weakened the US dollar index and increased global market risk aversion. Meanwhile, the tax reform bill promoted by US President Trump in Congress raised concerns about the expansion of the fiscal deficit. Trump's tariff threat on Friday further boosted precious metal prices [3][6]. - The US - EU trade negotiation is ongoing. Trump initially claimed to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting from June 1, but later postponed the deadline to July 9. Japan is considering accepting a US tariff reduction, and India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement expected to reach a temporary agreement by early July [3][6]. - Although the US - China trade relationship has recently eased, there is still great uncertainty in the trade negotiations between the US and other economies such as the EU and Japan. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks occur frequently. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations, so the short - term gold price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 780.10 | 28.30 | 3.76 | 220512 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 775.72 | 21.63 | 2.87 | 48148 | 210456 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3357.70 | 152.40 | 4.75 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 8263 | 162 | 2.00 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 8244 | 131 | 1.61 | 372524 | 3454112 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 33.64 | 1.21 | 3.73 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The precious metal prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend last week due to Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the tax reform bill, and Trump's tariff threat [3][6]. - The US - EU trade negotiation is in progress. Trump postponed the tariff deadline for the EU to July 9. Japan may accept a US tariff reduction, and India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by early July [3][6]. - The tax reform bill led by Trump will increase the federal debt by about $3.8 trillion in the next decade, causing concerns about fiscal sustainability and global bond market fluctuations. The bill will face challenges in the Senate vote [6]. - Fed officials emphasized patience in policy adjustment. The market expects a 90% probability of an ECB interest rate cut next month [6][7]. - Geopolitical risks include the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiation and the "Gideon's Sword" operation by the Israeli Defense Forces [7]. - This week, focus on US economic data such as GDP and PCE, and events like the US trade negotiations, the Fed's May meeting minutes, and speeches by Fed officials [8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - In May, the US manufacturing PMI reached a three - month high of 52.3, and the service PMI was 52.3, with new orders growing at the fastest rate in a year. However, manufacturing export orders contracted for the second consecutive month, and the employment index declined [9]. - As of the week ending May 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 2000 to 227,000, a four - week low, indicating a stable employment market [9]. - In May, the eurozone manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.2, but the service PMI dropped to 48.9, a 16 - month low, dragging down the composite PMI to 49.5. The money market increased bets on further ECB interest rate cuts this year [9]. - In April, US new home sales reached the highest level since February 2022, with an annualized growth of nearly 11% to 743,000 units [9]. - In April, Japan's core CPI rose 3.5% year - on - year, and the price of rice increased by 98%, which may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in October [10]. - In April, China's gold imports reached 127.5 metric tons, a 73% increase, a new high in 11 months [10]. - As of May 20, the total gold holdings of precious metal ETFs were 922.46 tons, an increase of 3.73 tons from last week. The silver holdings of ishare were 14217.50 tons, an increase of 302.60 tons from last week [10]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts - The content provides multiple charts including SHFE and COMEX precious metal prices, inventory changes, non - commercial net long positions, and the relationship between precious metal prices and other economic indicators such as the US dollar, inflation, and interest rates [14][15][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After two weeks of weak oscillations, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal stopped falling and rebounded. The increase in the oil mill operating rate and the expected increase in supply have been fully factored into the market. Concerns about potential production cuts in Argentina due to heavy rain and the possible delay of the sowing progress in the US Midwest due to heavy rain on the 20th have boosted market sentiment. Additionally, the forecast of dry weather during the US soybean growing season has attracted long - position funds, adding a weather premium to the market [4][7]. - The expected production cut in Argentina due to storms and the short - term heavy rain in the US soybean - growing areas have limited impacts. Attention should be paid to the weather changes during the growing season, and the US soybean market is in a volatile range. With the increase in the oil mill operating rate, the supply is increasing, putting pressure on the spot prices, which continue to decline. However, the long - position sentiment in the futures market has improved, strengthening the support at the lower level. Overall, after the rebound, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short term [4][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean July contract rose 9.75 to 1060.75 cents per bushel, a 0.93% increase. The DCE soybean meal 09 contract rose 53 to 2952 yuan per ton, an 1.83% increase. The South China soybean meal spot price fell 120 to 2940 yuan per ton, a 3.92% decrease. The CZCE rapeseed meal 09 contract rose 43 to 2556 yuan per ton, a 1.71% increase. The Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 60 to 2430 yuan per ton, a 2.53% increase [4][5][7]. - The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans increased by 12 to 446 dollars per ton, a 2.76% increase, and that of US Gulf soybeans increased by 6 to 463 dollars per ton, a 1.31% increase. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased by 40.6 to 43.13 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 66%, higher than the market expectation of 65%, and the emergence rate was 34%. As of the week of May 20, about 16% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought [8]. - As of the week of May 15, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 21.8 tons, lower than the market expectation. The net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year increased by 30.8 tons. China did not purchase US soybeans that week, and the cumulative purchase volume in the current year was 2248 tons [8][9]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.94 dollars per bushel. The 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 98.9%, and the Argentine soybean harvest progress was 74.3% [9][10]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 586.83 tons, an increase of 51.92 tons from the previous week, and the national port soybean inventory was 683.6 tons, an increase of 60.2 tons from the previous week. The oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 12.17 tons, an increase of 2.05 tons from the previous week [10]. - As of the week of May 23, 2025, the national daily average soybean meal trading volume was 39.344 tons, and the daily average pick - up volume was 17.934 tons. The main oil mills' crushing volume was 220.93 tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 5.73 days [10]. Industry News - Brazil exported 7,836,693.24 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of May, with a daily average export volume 11.34% higher than that of May last year [12]. - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast was adjusted to 1.697 billion tons, the soybean export volume forecast was slightly reduced to 1.082 billion tons, and the soybean crushing volume forecast was 57.5 million tons [12][13]. - Due to recent storms, the 2024/25 soybean crop in Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, may suffer "significant losses", and there are still 730,000 hectares of soybean crops not harvested [14]. - A commodity research institution maintained the forecast of the US 2025/26 soybean production at 117 million tons, but the long - term summer weather outlook is not optimistic, and the soil moisture in the central soybean belt is a major risk factor [15]. - The US government plans to grant 163 small refineries exemptions, which may reduce the actual mandatory blending volume of US biodiesel and cause a nearly 5 - million - ton decline in the US oil industry's consumption [16]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the freight rate, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the soybean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference, the management fund's CBOT net position, the regional soybean meal spot price, the soybean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, the US soybean - growing area precipitation and temperature, the Argentine soybean harvest progress, the US soybean's cumulative export sales volume to the world and China, the US soybean's weekly net sales volume and export volume, the US oil mill's crushing profit, the soybean meal's weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume, the port and oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill's weekly crushing volume and operating rate, and the oil mill's soybean meal inventory and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days [17][19][22][23]