钢材周报 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 2025 年 3 月 31 日 主力合约切换 期价震荡运行 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 需求端：3月24日，新疆八钢（不包含巴州和伊犁基 地）、昆仑、昆玉和闽新四家钢厂发布消息，主动减 产10%，以当前四家企业生产情况推算，预计日均减 少粗钢产量0.2万吨左右。 ⚫ 供应端：上周螺纹产量227万吨，环比增加1万吨，表 需245万吨，增加2万吨，螺纹厂库210万吨，减少10 万吨 ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 3 月 31 日 对等关税临近，金价再创新高 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格继续维持强势运行，国际金价站上3100美 元/盎司，再创历史新高，银价也站上35美元/盎司上方。 随着美国实行"对等关税"的时间4月2日临近，市场对美 经济的滞胀担忧上升，推动避险情绪攀升，支撑贵金属价 格继续走高。上周五美元指数因对经济增长的担忧而走 软，美债收益率下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Demand side: Last week, the growth rate of hot metal production slowed down. After the previous centralized restart of blast furnaces, there is limited room for further increase in hot metal. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 82.11%, a week-on-week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 5.51 percentage points. The daily average hot metal production was 2.3728 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 159,700 tons [2]. - Supply side: Affected by the previous shipments, the number of arriving ships decreased last week, and the arrival volume declined. Recently, the shipments have increased month-on-month and are at a relatively high level in the same period in the past three years. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil last week were 25.152 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.615 million tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 149.794 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 649,100 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2531 million tons, an increase of 102,000 tons [2]. - Overall: The supply side was affected by the previous shipments, with a decrease in the number of arriving ships and a decline in arrival volume last week. Recently, the shipments have increased month-on-month and are at a relatively high level in the same period in the past three years. On the demand side, the growth rate of hot metal production slowed down last week. After the previous centralized restart of blast furnaces, there is limited room for further increase in hot metal. This year, the global iron ore supply is expected to increase, and the decline in demand is mainly due to the restrictions of China's crude steel production control policy. In the medium and long term, supply is strong and demand is weak. Recently, the growth rate of hot metal production has slowed down, and in the short term, iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3,197 yuan/ton, a rise of 41 yuan, a rise rate of 1.30%, a total trading volume of 10,158,406 lots, and a total open interest of 3,149,809 lots [3]. - SHFE hot-rolled coil had a closing price of 3,374 yuan/ton, a rise of 23 yuan, a rise rate of 0.69%, a total trading volume of 2,423,951 lots, and a total open interest of 832,160 lots [3]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 785.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 28 yuan, a rise rate of 3.70%, a total trading volume of 1,496,772 lots, and a total open interest of 412,123 lots [3]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 1,024 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan, a rise rate of 1.39%, a total trading volume of 1,388,421 lots, and a total open interest of 515,162 lots [3]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1,617.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 81.5 yuan, a rise rate of 5.31%, a total trading volume of 137,642 lots, and a total open interest of 53,611 lots [3]. Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures rose. The resumption of production of steel mills accelerated, and the hot metal increased month-on-month, supporting the rebound of ore prices. In the spot market, the quotation of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 784 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 23 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 645 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 11 yuan/ton. The price difference between high and low grades of spot PB powder and Super Special powder was 139 yuan/ton [5]. - On the demand side, the growth rate of hot metal production slowed down last week. After the previous centralized restart of blast furnaces, there is limited room for further increase in hot metal. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 82.11%, a week-on-week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 5.51 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.08%, a week-on-week increase of 0.38 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.32 percentage points; the profitability rate of steel mills was 53.68%, a week-on-week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 25.11 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 2.3728 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 159,700 tons [5]. - On the supply side, affected by the previous shipments, the number of arriving ships decreased last week, and the arrival volume declined. Recently, the shipments have increased month-on-month and are at a relatively high level in the same period in the past three years. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil last week were 25.152 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.615 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 18.786 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 540,000 tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.926 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 458,000 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 6.365 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.56 million tons. The total global iron ore shipments this period were 30.847 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.212 million tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 149.794 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 649,100 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2531 million tons, an increase of 102,000 tons. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [6]. Industry News - Jiang Wei, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee, Vice President, and Secretary-General of the China Iron and Steel Association, stated that the imbalance between supply and demand is the main contradiction affecting the current industry development. Production control and industry self-discipline production reduction are only expedients. Effectively closing the entrance for new production capacity, quickly smoothing the exit channel for backward production capacity, and establishing a new mechanism for production capacity management are the keys to solving the current main contradictions in the industry [7][8]. - US President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars, and the relevant measures will take effect on April 2. Trump also said that the United States will impose tariffs on wood and drugs [11]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Work Plan for the National Carbon Emission Trading Market to Cover the Steel, Cement, and Aluminum Smelting Industries", marking that the work of expanding the industry coverage scope of the national carbon emission trading market for the first time has officially entered the implementation stage [11]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the futures and spot trends of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, the basis trends of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, the profit per ton of steel for steel mills, the profit and loss situation of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, the spot landing profit of PB powder, the national steel daily output, the national steel output (ten-day), the national and Tangshan billet inventory, the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil, the increase rate of the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil, the steel mill inventory, the weekly output of rebar and hot-rolled coil for steel mills, the apparent consumption of steel, the terminal procurement volume of Shanghai wire rod and rebar, the daily average output of national pig iron and crude steel, the ten-day output of national pig iron and crude steel, the profitability of steel mills across the country, the daily average hot metal production across the country, the port inventory of 45 ports, the port inventory of main ports, the national electric furnace operation situation, the blast furnace operating rate across the country, the port inventory of 45 ports by iron ore type, the average available days of iron ore for steel mills, the total inventory of iron ore for steel mills, the total daily consumption of iron ore for steel mills, the number of ships at ports for 45 ports, the daily average port clearance volume of iron ore, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, the iron ore arrival volume at the six northern ports, the national steel mill scrap daily consumption, the national steel mill scrap inventory, the steel mill scrap arrival volume, and the national steel mill scrap arrival volume [10][12][13][15][16][18][20][24][25][27][30][33][34][37][38][39][42][43][47][50].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250328 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：关税落地重燃避险情绪，国内企业盈利有待修复 海外方面，美国四季度 GDP 环比折年率上修至 2.4%、PCE 下修至 2.6%，美国最新初 请失业金人数录得 22.4 万人，指向劳动力市场依旧偏稳；欧盟、加拿大、巴西、墨西哥等国 暗示反制特朗普汽车关税，全球贸易摩擦预期加剧，市场避险情绪浓厚。美元指数回落至 104.3，10Y 美债利率小幅升至 4.36%，美股震荡收跌，金价再创新高，铜价高位回落，油价 小幅收涨。 国内方面，1-2 月工业企业营业收入同比+2.8%、利润同比-0.3%，其中私营企业利润同 比-9%，利润率处于近年来低位，目前需求偏弱、物价低迷依旧是企业盈利改善的掣肘。A 股小幅放量收涨，两市成交额回升至 1.22 万亿，科创 50、上证 50 表现较好，行业上光刻 机、创新药领涨，市场仍处于缩量盘整时期。债市方面，央行转向净回笼，资金面整体偏松， 市场情绪尚在修复，对央行态度 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250327 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普汽车关税落地，A 股成交热度持续降温 海外方面，特朗普宣布对所有进口汽车征收 25%关税，称对等关税计划将是"宽松"的； 外媒报道特朗普将加速铜关税征收，最快或数周内实施。美国2月耐用品订单环比录得0.9%， 远超预期-1%，重回历史高位附近，核心订单增幅创两年新高。贸易战担忧引发市场避险情 绪，美联储官员鹰派发言称"关税或导致持续通胀"，美股重回跌势，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.35%，美铜创新高、LME 铜及沪铜高位调整，金价走平，油价收涨。 国内方面，A 股缩量震荡，两市成交额回落至 1.18 万亿、创 2 月来新低，风格上小微 盘股重占上风，行业上鸡产业、工程机械领涨，市场成交热度持续回落，上市公司基本面及 特朗普关税预期节奏为近期关注重点。债市方面，央行昨日持续净投放，资金面偏松，市场 重回博弈"降准"及配置盘进场，长短端利率均显著下行，10Y、30Y 利率继续回落至 1.78 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250325 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：海外关税预期转鸽提振风偏，国内 MLF 或迎结构性降息 海外方面，美国 3 月 Markit PMI 分化，制造业 PMI 弱于预期重回萎缩区间，而 1-2 月 爆冷的服务业 PMI 回升至 54.3 的高位，企业主要担忧关税影响及政府削减开支；欧洲 3 月 Markit 制造业 PMI 持续回暖，其中德法回升显著。特朗普：4 月 2 日起将对所有购买委内 瑞拉油气的国家征收 25%关税、将在近期宣布针对汽车、制药、木材、芯片等多个行业的新 关税，可能会对许多国家给予关税豁免，但需对等。关税预期转鸽、经济数据偏暖，美元指 数站稳 104 上方，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.34%，美股大幅反弹，金、铜回调，油价受关税影 响上涨超 1%。 国内方面，A 股缩量 V 型反弹，两市成交额回落至 1.48 万亿、依旧处于 2 月来偏水平， 风格上红利价值板块较好，中证 1000、微盘股调整幅度较大，行业 ...

美国经济降温风险加剧，国内制造业景气回升 宏观周报 2025 年 3 月 3 日 核心观点 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0384165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 12 ⚫ 海外方面，美国1月核心PCE符合预期，其中商品通胀走 强，而服务通胀同比降至2021年4月来新低，与近期服务 业PMI降温、消费者信心指数大幅回落相印证。最新亚特 兰大联储的GDPNow模型显示一季度美国GDP环比折年 率为-1.5%，主要受到净出口、个人消费支出的拖累。近 期海 ...

宏观周报 2025 年 2 月 24 日 美国服务业景气骤降，A 股科技股重估行情延续 核心观点 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 ⚫ 海外方面，美国经济呈现边际降温，此前处于高位景气的 服务业PMI在2月骤降至收缩区间、创下两年来新低，反 映市场对政府支出削减和关税政策不确定性的担忧；而制 造业景气连续2个月扩张，有部分工厂在关税落地前扩大 产量的短期扰动，后续关注制造业回暖的持续性。2月密 歇根大学消费者信心指数回落，中长期通胀预期回升至 4.3%、创下30年新高，同样蕴含了消费者对关税影响的担 忧。上周五数据公布后，美债利率下行至4.42%，纳指跌 幅超2%，市场预期首次降息时点提前至6月。本周关注美 国四季度GDP修正值、1月PCE通胀数据。 ⚫ 国内方面，上周处于数据真空期，2月LPR利率如期按兵 不动，股债市场各自延续此前的交易主线。股市延续放量 上涨，成交额重回2万亿元上方，春节前Deepseek点燃的 中国科技股重估行情仍在演绎，阿里巴巴三季报超预期为 ...

Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - In January, the U.S. CPI rose to 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.9% and marking a six-month high[3] - The January retail sales decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly below the expected decline of 0.1%, with the previous value revised to a 0.7% increase[8] - The core CPI for January recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, surpassing the expected 3.1%[4] Group 2: Domestic Financial Data - In January, the total social financing (TSF) increased by 70,567 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5,833 billion yuan, indicating a strong start to the year[12] - The new RMB loans in January amounted to 52,194 billion yuan, up by 3,793 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting the overall financing growth[13] - The M1 and M2 growth rates were reported at 0.4% and 7.0% respectively, with M1 showing a slight recovery compared to the previous month[13] Group 3: Market Trends and Risks - The market is closely monitoring the potential impact of AI innovation on asset revaluation in China, which has positively influenced the equity market[12] - Risks include potential market volatility due to Trump's policies, domestic policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts not aligning with market predictions[12]

Group 1: Overseas Macro Trends - In January, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, exceeding expectations of 49.7 and marking a seven-month high, indicating a return to expansion[5] - The US Services PMI fell to 52.8, significantly below the expected 56.5, reflecting a decline in consumer confidence, which dropped to 71.1, the first decrease in six months[5] - Eurozone Manufacturing PMI improved to 46.1, above the expected 45.3, while Services PMI remained stable at 51.4, indicating a mixed recovery across the region[7] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - The USD/CNY exchange rate strengthened from 7.31 to 7.24, reflecting a positive market response to Trump's dovish signals regarding tariffs on China[2] - Domestic economic recovery continued, supported by exports and consumption, with real estate prices showing signs of recovery[2] - The upcoming focus includes China's January PMI and December industrial profits, which are expected to provide further insights into economic health[2] Group 3: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,252.63, with a weekly increase of 0.33%[9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated around 4.63%, while the 10-year German bond yield rose to 2.58%[12] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with COMEX gold at $2,777.40, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.04%[14]