Core Insights - The report emphasizes that domestic demand will dominate and set the economic tone for the coming year, with a short-term focus on improvements in the export chain [2] Industry News - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing, highlighting the importance of domestic demand [2] - A notification on strengthening the collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption was officially released [2] Important Company Announcements - Jian Sheng Group announced an investment of 818 million yuan in capacity construction in Egypt [2] - Ribo Fashion plans to acquire 71% of Indile's shares for 1.42 billion yuan through a combination of issuing shares and cash payment [2] Market Review - From December 8 to December 12, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points, with a decline of 1.04% compared to the CSI 300's decline of 0.08% [2] - During the same period, the textile and apparel sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 2.49 percentage points, with a decline of 2.57% [2] Weekly Strategy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to build a strong domestic market as a primary task for economic work next year. Policies for replacing old products in sectors like automobiles, home appliances, and home furnishings are expected to continue [2] - The real estate market will be stabilized with city-specific measures to control inventory and encourage the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing [2] - Approximately 100 cities, including Hangzhou and Wuhan, have increased housing purchase subsidies this year, indicating a less pessimistic outlook for the real estate sector [2] Recommendations - The report maintains a "neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors, while suggesting to continue monitoring companies with strong overseas capacity and brand pricing power [3] - Companies such as Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), Pathfinder (300005), Semir Apparel (002563), Guibao Pet (301498), and Zhongchong Co. (002891) are rated as "overweight" [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [4][37] - The report recommends an "Overweight" rating for specific companies including Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), Explorer (300005), Semir Apparel (002563), Guibao Pet (301498), and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891) [4][37] Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand as the primary driver for the economy in the coming year, focusing on building a strong domestic market [10][36] - The report highlights the expectation of continued policies to stimulate consumption, particularly in the automotive, home appliance, and home furnishing sectors, as well as support for real estate [3][36] - The report notes that the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are likely to improve export chain orders, suggesting a positive outlook for companies with strong overseas production capabilities and brand power [4][37] Industry News - The central economic work conference took place in Beijing, outlining key tasks for the upcoming year, including innovation-driven growth and coordinated development [10] - A notification was issued to strengthen collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption [10] Important Company Announcements - Jian Sheng Group announced an investment of 818 million yuan in Egypt for capacity construction [28] - Ribo Fashion plans to acquire a 71% stake in Yindile through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment totaling 1.42 billion yuan [28] Market Review - From December 8 to December 12, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points, while the textile apparel sector lagged by 2.49 percentage points [28][32] - The report identifies the top-performing stocks in the light industry and textile sectors during the same period, highlighting significant fluctuations in individual stock performances [29][32]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continued strength in packaging paper prices, with a general increase of 50 CNY/ton announced by major paper companies such as Nine Dragons and Shanying [7][44]. - The report maintains a "neutral" rating for the light industry and textile apparel sectors, while recommending "buy" ratings for specific companies including Oppein Home, Sophia, and Semir Apparel [2][44]. Industry News - A video call took place between He Lifeng, the Chinese Vice Premier, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, discussing the importance of enhancing cooperation and addressing trade concerns [7]. - Major paper companies, including Nine Dragons and Liansheng Paper, have updated their price increase notices for packaging paper, reflecting a broader trend in the industry [7]. Important Company Announcements - Bohui Paper Industry announced an investment in a chemical pulp technology upgrade project, expanding its capacity from 95,000 tons to 320,000 tons with a total investment of 1.7 billion CNY [35]. - Explorer Holdings has acquired a 51% stake in Better Life Electronics for 321.3 million CNY [35]. Market Review - From December 1 to December 5, the light industry sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.58 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 1.86% [35]. - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.88 percentage points, with a decline of 1.60% [39]. Weekly Strategy - The report suggests that the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could improve order expectations for export-oriented companies [43]. - Despite a 30.91% year-on-year decline in property transaction volumes in major cities, the report indicates that recent government subsidies may alleviate some pressure on the real estate sector [43]. - The report recommends focusing on low-positioning opportunities in home-related stocks, given the current market conditions [43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, it's difficult to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing. Policy expectations, asset price - to - value ratios, and institutional behavior may still be the dominant factors. However, in the long run, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase in 2026, with price signals being the key [25]. - After the clarification of the Central Economic Work Conference content, the bond market within the year will revolve around the equity market and institutional behavior, and is expected to be mainly volatile. The direction of the volatility is affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect. If the sentiment in the equity market warms up, the yield curve may steepen and rise. It's not advisable to overly expect a front - running market [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Event点评 - **Import and Export Data**: In November 2025, in US dollars, China's exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a trade surplus of $111.676 billion. The year - on - year export growth rebounded, and the influence of non - US regions continued to expand. Looking ahead, trade uncertainty has further eased, but the year - on - year export growth in December may decline slightly due to the higher base [9]. - **Inflation Data**: In November 2025, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. The month - on - month decline in CPI was mainly affected by the seasonal cooling of the travel chain and the decline in energy prices; PPI continued to rise slightly month - on - month, mainly driven by the increased winter demand in industries such as coal and gas. It's expected that the month - on - month CPI growth rate in December will be around 0%, and PPI will continue to rise slightly month - on - month [10][11]. 3.2 Funding Price - Overnight funding rates dropped to 1.28%. During the statistical period, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 137.5 billion yuan. DR001 and DR007 remained at low levels, and certificate of deposit yields were basically flat. Since December, certificate of deposit yields have increased significantly due to the large maturity scale and high roll - over pressure on banks [12]. 3.3 Primary Market - The 2025 national debt issuance plan is about to be completed. During the statistical period, 96 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 454.2 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 68 billion yuan. On December 12, the last two national debts in the 2025 issuance plan will be issued, indicating that the supply of government bonds in 2025 is approaching the end [15]. 3.4 Secondary Market - The yield curve flattened and repaired. During the statistical period, the bond market showed a repair market, with ultra - long bonds rebounding from oversold conditions, mainly driven by news of relaxed ΔEVE restrictions and sentiment. After the release of the content of the two important meetings, bond yields accelerated their decline at the end of the trading day, but the interest rates turned upward the next day. The key to the subsequent impact on the bond market lies in the intensity and scale of policy implementation [16][17]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: Currently, it's hard to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing, but in 2026, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase [25]. - **Policy**: The Central Economic Work Conference continued to set the tone of a "more proactive" fiscal policy, emphasizing the need to "maintain the necessary fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure." The tone of monetary policy remained "moderately loose," with a greater emphasis on its role in stabilizing prices. It's expected that the timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026 may be earlier [25]. - **Funding**: Positive factors include the central bank's open - market operation support, increased fiscal spending, and decreased government bond supply. Risk factors are the high roll - over pressure on bank inter - bank certificates of deposit. It's expected that DR007 will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and inter - bank certificate of deposit yields will remain flat or rise slightly [25]. - **Investment Suggestion**: One can moderately grasp the spreads between China Development Bank bonds and national debts with maturities of 7 years and below, the spreads between Export - Import Bank of China bonds and national debts with a 3 - year maturity, and the term spreads of national debts (5Y - 3Y) [26].

Macro and Strategy Research - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of "quality improvement" and maintaining domestic demand as a primary task for 2026, highlighting the need for effective quality enhancement alongside reasonable growth [2][3] - The fiscal policy will continue to be proactive, focusing on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels while optimizing expenditure structures and addressing local fiscal difficulties [3][4] - Monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose stance, with a shift towards flexible and efficient use of various policy tools, emphasizing support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand and technological innovation [4][5] - The focus on expanding domestic demand will prioritize supply optimization and service consumption, with plans to implement a "rural and urban resident income increase plan" to boost consumer spending [5][6] - Innovation will be a key area, with plans to establish international technology innovation centers in major regions to enhance the national innovation system and support new momentum cultivation [6][8] - The conference also addressed the need for "anti-involution" measures and emphasized reforms in the capital market to support investment and financing [8] Industry Research - The release of the new basic medical insurance drug list and the first commercial health insurance innovative drug list aims to support the innovative development of the pharmaceutical industry, with 114 new drugs added to the basic insurance list, including 50 innovative drugs [13][14] - The approval of a CDK2/4/6 inhibitor by a Chinese biopharmaceutical company marks a significant advancement in the industry [13] - The stock performance of the pharmaceutical sector showed a mixed trend, with the SW pharmaceutical industry index PE ratio at 50.70 times, indicating a 265% premium over the CSI 300 index [13][14] - The report suggests focusing on the growth potential of pharmaceutical companies' products entering the insurance list and the investment opportunities arising from the optimization of payment structures for innovative drug companies [14]

宏观经济分析报告 5 内外政策落地，预期逐步对齐 ――宏观经济周报 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威[Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 12 月 12 日 就外围环境而言，美国方面，最新周度初请失业金人数攀升至四季度以来高 位，虽然其有可能受季节性因素扰动偏高，但若结合 JOLTS 显示的招聘人 数减少、裁员人数增多以及劳动力成本增长低于预期等多维度数据来看，劳 动力市场仍在趋势性放缓。延后发布的 9 月 PCE 物价指数同比增速上升但 符合预期且核心分项自今年二季度以来首次出现下降。同时，实际个人 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the industry and a "Buy" rating for Heng Rui Medicine (600276) [52] Core Insights - The newly released basic medical insurance drug directory and the first commercial health insurance innovative drug directory support the development of innovative drugs and promote the complementary relationship between commercial health insurance and basic medical insurance [9][12] - A total of 114 new drugs have been added to the directory, including 50 first-class innovative drugs, while 29 drugs have been removed due to lack of clinical supply or better alternatives [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the volume growth of pharmaceutical companies' products after entering the insurance directory and the investment opportunities arising from the optimization of payment structures for innovative drug companies [51] Industry News - The new basic medical insurance drug directory and the first commercial health insurance innovative drug directory were published, with the new directory set to take effect on January 1, 2026 [9] - The first commercial health insurance innovative drug directory includes 19 drugs, which complement the basic medical insurance and support the establishment of a multi-tiered medical security system [12] - The first CDK2/4/6 inhibitor developed by China Biopharmaceutical has been approved for market launch, indicating advancements in innovative drug development [14] Company Announcements - Heng Rui Medicine has successfully included several drugs in the national medical insurance directory through negotiations, enhancing its market position [31] - Stone Pharmaceutical Group has received acceptance for its second marketing authorization application for Semaglutide injection [29] - Junshi Biosciences has had its new drug application for the injection of Nocadizumab accepted [32] Market Review - For the week of December 5 to December 11, 2025, the SW Pharmaceutical and Biological Index fell by 0.78%, with most sub-sectors experiencing declines [40] - As of December 11, 2025, the SW Pharmaceutical and Biological Industry's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) was 50.70, with a valuation premium of 265% relative to the CSI 300 [44] Weekly Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the growth potential of pharmaceutical companies' products after entering the insurance directory and the investment opportunities in the CXO and upstream life sciences sectors [51]

A 股投资策略报告 政策强调"质"的提升，扩大内需仍为首要任务 ――中央经济工作会议要点解读 | | | 宋亦威 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com [Table_Author] 严佩佩 022-23839070 SAC No:S1150520110001 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛芃[Table_IndInvest] 022-23839160 SAC NO：S1150124030005 jinpp@bhzq.com [学Table_Summary 习 ] 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议，我们共总结了六 方面的收获，具体内容如下： 一、着眼于提质增效，着力推动经济实现质的有效提升。在 2026 年经 济工作部署中，"质的有效提升"被置于更加突出的位置。会议明确要求"明 年经济工作的政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"。值得注意的是，会 议不仅很罕见的将"贯彻新发展理念"、"构建新发展格局"、"推动高质量发 展"等表述置于"坚持稳中求进的总基调"之前，更明确提出要"推动经济 实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"。尤其强调要"在质的有效提升上取得更 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - CPI in November 2025 shows a significant increase in vegetable and gold prices, while travel chain prices decline due to seasonal demand drop and OPEC+ production increases affecting energy prices [2] - The forecast for December indicates CPI growth around 0.5% year-on-year, with an expected annual CPI growth of approximately 0% for 2025 [3] - PPI in November 2025 shows an expanded year-on-year decline, with a stable month-on-month increase, driven by seasonal demand in coal and gas, and a narrowing decline in prices for solar equipment and lithium-ion battery manufacturing [3] A-Share Market Investment Strategy - The A-share market continues to exhibit a volatile characteristic, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index up by 3.14% over the past five trading days [4] - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in exports to Japan, South Korea, and the EU, indicating an ongoing optimization of export structure [5] - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes a proactive macro policy for 2026, focusing on building a strong domestic market and fostering new growth drivers [5] Industry Research - The approval for NVIDIA to sell H200 AI chips to China is expected to alleviate supply issues for domestic cloud computing firms, while domestic chip companies are likely to accelerate product development through financing [7][8] - Alibaba's establishment of the Qianwen C-end business group aims to create a "super app," indicating a strategic push towards AI applications in consumer-facing products [7] - The investment opportunities in the TMT sector and robotics are highlighted due to ongoing capital expansion by domestic and international cloud vendors and the anticipated growth in AI application demand [6]

Market Review - In the past five trading days (December 5 to December 11), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index slightly decreased by 0.06%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 3.14% [3] - The trading volume increased, with a total of 9.30 trillion yuan traded, resulting in an average daily trading volume of 1.86 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 205.98 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [11] Economic Data - In November, exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, significantly rebounding from October, influenced by a lower base, stable external demand, and the end of holiday disruptions [26] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year [28] Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 8, outlining the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy [34] - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, indicating a focus on structural adjustments and the continuation of "anti-involution" policies [34] Investment Strategy - The A-share market continues to exhibit a volatile characteristic, with a positive outlook driven by policy support and liquidity expectations [36] - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics due to ongoing AI capital expansion and domestic substitution processes [36] - The energy storage demand and solid-state battery industrialization present investment opportunities in the power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors [36] - The banking sector is also highlighted as a potential area for investment due to the low interest rate environment and the return of public fund holdings to performance benchmarks [37]