Key Points Summary Industry Overview - The mechanical equipment industry is expected to see continued investment opportunities, particularly in the engineering machinery and robotics sectors, driven by domestic demand and infrastructure projects [1][6]. - The industry has experienced a recovery in demand, with excavator and loader sales maintaining growth, supported by favorable domestic construction activity and government policies aimed at expanding effective investment [6][39]. Engineering Machinery - In October 2025, excavator sales reached 18,096 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.77%, with domestic sales at 8,468 units (up 2.44%) and exports at 9,628 units (up 12.90%) [28]. - The sales of various types of loaders increased by 27.70% year-on-year, totaling 10,673 units, with domestic sales growing by 33.23% [33]. - The industry is benefiting from a clear growth logic in downstream demand, with major projects expected to drive further recovery [6][39]. Robotics - In October 2025, China's industrial robot production increased by 17.90% year-on-year, reaching 57,900 units, with cumulative production for the first ten months at approximately 602,700 units, up 28.80% [43]. - The market for industrial robots in China remains the largest globally, with significant room for growth in per capita ownership density [6][43]. Market Performance - From November 2 to December 2, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 1.86%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index declined by 3.67%, underperforming the broader market by 1.81 percentage points [5][60]. - As of December 2, 2025, the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index had a price-to-earnings ratio (PE, TTM) of 43.59, representing a valuation premium of 210.68% over the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [67]. Company Recommendations - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the industry and recommends "buy" ratings for specific companies, including Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [7].

Macro and Strategy Research - The US economy in 2026 may be more fragile than it appears, with growth driven mainly by AI-related investments and high-income consumer spending, while other contributions remain minimal [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates due to concerns about the labor market, but the space for cuts is limited, aiming slightly below the nominal neutral rate [3] - In Europe, external risks are skewed to the downside, with challenges arising from the recovery of internal economic momentum, while defense spending supported by fiscal measures may revitalize investment in the Eurozone [3] Domestic Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" framework will be adjusted to focus on solidifying development foundations while promoting a unified national market and expanding autonomous openness [4] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a more proactive stance, with an emphasis on early deployment and investment in human capital [4] - Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative but with a focus on credit quality and more precise liquidity management [4] Domestic Economic Environment - China's economic growth in 2026 is projected to remain around 5%, with investment stabilizing first while consumption requires systematic policy support [5] - Industrial value-added growth is expected to remain stable due to good external demand, while the ability of high-tech industries to break through will be crucial for improving operational efficiency [5] - Inflation is anticipated to rebound slightly, with a key focus on whether PPI growth can significantly recover [5] Fund Research - In November, the market saw a decline, with the average drop for equity funds being 2.43%, while the mini funds (500 million to 1 billion) had the smallest average drop of 2.26% [9] - The number of new individual investor accounts decreased significantly after several months of growth, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [8] - The private equity market continued to recover, with the total scale reaching a three-year high of 22.05 trillion yuan [8] Financial Engineering Research - The A-share market experienced a broad adjustment in November, with the ChiNext index dropping 4.23% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.67% [12] - The margin trading balance decreased slightly to 24,660.50 billion yuan, with a notable drop in the number of investors participating in margin trading [13] Industry Research: Metals - The steel industry may see weakened demand in December due to weather factors, leading to reduced production and fluctuating prices [15] - Copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply and low domestic inventory, supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [15] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to experience stable profits due to low alumina prices, despite a potential decline in downstream demand [15] Industry Research: Pharmaceuticals - The National Healthcare Security Administration is conducting negotiations for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List, which may impact pharmaceutical companies [20] - The medical manufacturing industry is facing pressure, with cumulative revenue declining by 2.9% year-on-year [21] - The upcoming release of the new basic medical insurance drug list and the first commercial insurance innovative drug list is expected to create investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector [22]

Industry Overview - The report highlights a warming expectation for interest rate cuts, which is expected to boost metal prices, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve's potential policy changes [1][3]. Steel Industry - In December, demand for steel may continue to weaken due to weather factors, leading to a reduction in steel production and a fluctuating price trend [3][19]. - The steel industry is expected to benefit from growth policies, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase, alongside trends in equipment upgrades and low-carbon transitions [5][19]. - The average daily transaction volume of construction steel in October 2025 was 101,300 tons, down 1.13% month-on-month and 13.06% year-on-year [20][19]. Copper Industry - The copper supply remains tight, with expectations of continued high price fluctuations supported by low domestic inventory levels and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [3][36]. - In October, domestic refined copper production was 1,204,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.89% [37][36]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the copper industry, driven by demand from power grids, electric vehicles, and AI servers [5][36]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is experiencing a stable profit level for electrolytic aluminum plants due to low alumina prices, although downstream demand is expected to weaken in December [3][41]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October was 3,798,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.23% [42][41]. - The report anticipates that the aluminum price will continue to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [5][41]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, influenced by the Fed's interest rate policies and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation [3][47]. - From October 31 to November 28, 2025, COMEX gold prices increased by 6.05% to $4,256.40 per ounce [47][47]. New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain high due to strong demand in the energy storage sector, despite a slight decline in demand from the electric vehicle sector [3][52]. - Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increased by 17.50% to 94,000 yuan per ton from October 31 to November 28, 2025 [53][52]. - The report indicates a trend towards regulatory strengthening in the lithium supply side, which may optimize the future supply structure and support lithium prices [5][52]. Cobalt Industry - The cobalt market is expected to face pressure on prices due to a potential decline in demand from the power battery market, while the consumer electronics sector remains robust [4][62]. - In October, domestic cobalt sulfate production was 12,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.72% [66][62].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][4] - The content primarily focuses on market data, financing and securities lending balances, and industry/stock-specific financing and securities lending characteristics[1][8][56] - No quantitative models or factors are constructed or tested in the provided report[1][2][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, the main indices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fluctuated and declined. The Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index had the largest decline of 6.24%, while the SSE 50 Index was relatively resilient with a decline of 1.39%. Thirteen out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rose, with the top 5 gainers being comprehensive, banking, textile and apparel, petroleum and petrochemicals, and light manufacturing. The top 5 decliners were computer, automobile, electronics, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology [1][14]. - In October 2025, the number of newly opened accounts for individual and institutional investors decreased significantly after continuous monthly increases. The private securities investment fund market continued its moderate recovery. The newly -备案 scale in October rebounded to 42.92 billion yuan, and the existing scale expanded significantly to 22.05 trillion yuan, reaching a new high in nearly three years [2][21]. - In November, 65 new funds were issued with a scale of 5.3052 billion yuan. The issuance shares of active and passive equity funds both declined month - on - month, and the equity fund issuance market continued to cool slightly. Except for commodity - type funds, all types of funds declined to varying degrees, with equity - biased funds having the largest average decline of 2.43%. Value style outperformed growth style, and large - cap style outperformed small - cap style [3]. - Through the calculation of the industry positions of active equity funds, in November, the industries with the highest increase in positions were household appliances, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverages; the industries with the highest reduction in positions were national defense and military industry, computer, and electronics. The overall position of active equity funds on November 28, 2025, was 81.96%, up 2.12 pct from the previous month [4]. - In November, the net inflow of funds into the ETF market was 120.526 billion yuan, slowing down from the previous month. Many broad - based indices such as the CSI 300 experienced capital outflows, while ETFs related to gold, Hong Kong technology, non - bank finance, and innovative drugs had the highest net inflows. Among the most actively traded targets, some ETFs had significant gains or losses, and specific funds had large net inflows or outflows [5]. - In November, the risk - parity model declined by 0.14%, and the risk - budget model declined by 0.34% [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Month's Market Review 3.1.1 Domestic Market Situation - In November, the main indices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fluctuated and declined. The Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index had the largest decline of 6.24%, and the SSE 50 Index was relatively resilient with a decline of 1.39%. Thirteen out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rose, with the top 5 gainers and decliners as mentioned above. The ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index declined by 0.26%, and the total full - price indices of ChinaBond treasury bonds, financial bonds, and credit bonds declined between 0.10% and 0.60%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index declined by 0.69%, and the Nanhua Commodity Index rose by 0.53% [14]. 3.1.2欧美及亚太市场情况 - In November, the main indices of the European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets showed mixed performance. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 rose by 0.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.32%, and the Nasdaq declined by 1.51%. In the European market, the French CAC40 rose by 0.02%, and the German DAX declined by 0.51%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.18%, and the Nikkei 225 declined by 4.12% [26]. 3.1.3 Market Valuation Situation - In November, the valuations of most main market indices were adjusted downward. The growth - technology indices represented by the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index and the ChiNext Index were under pressure. The historical quantile of the price - to - earnings ratio of the former decreased significantly, and the latter was already at a relatively low historical level. The historical quantile of the price - to - book ratio of the CSI 1000 Index also declined significantly. Among industries, the top 5 industries with the highest historical quantiles of the price - to - earnings ratio of the Shenwan primary index were banking, real estate, electronics, commercial trade, and coal. The historical quantile of the price - to - earnings ratio of the banking industry was at a high level, and that of the real estate industry reached 94.8%. The bottom 5 industries with the lowest historical quantiles were non - bank finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverages, beauty care, and non - ferrous metals, with the non - bank finance industry's valuation approaching its historical low since 2013 [30]. 3.2 Overall Situation of Public Funds 3.2.1 Fund Issuance Situation - In November, 65 new funds were issued with a scale of 5.3052 billion yuan, and the issuance speed slowed down significantly compared with the previous month. Among them, 31 equity funds, 17 hybrid funds, 8 bond funds, 8 FOF funds, and 1 REITs fund were issued. The issuance shares of active and passive equity funds both declined month - on - month, and the equity fund issuance market continued to cool slightly [39]. 3.2.2 Fund Market Return Situation - In November, except for commodity - type funds, all types of funds declined to varying degrees. Equity - biased funds had the largest average decline of 2.43%. From the perspective of fund style indices, the market showed a broad - based decline, with significant differentiation in the performance of different - style funds. Value style outperformed growth style, and large - cap style outperformed small - cap style. Among different - sized equity - biased public funds, the mini - funds with a scale of 50 million - 100 million had the smallest average decline of 2.26% and a positive - return ratio of 13.22%, while the large - scale funds with a scale of 4 billion - 10 billion had the largest average decline of 2.56% and a positive - return ratio of 10.98% [3][47][51]. 3.2.3 Active Equity Fund Position Situation - In November, the industries with the highest increase in positions of active equity funds were household appliances, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverages; the industries with the highest reduction in positions were national defense and military industry, computer, and electronics. The overall position of active equity funds on November 28, 2025, was 81.96%, up 2.12 pct from the previous month [4][54][55]. 3.3 ETF Fund Situation - In November, the net inflow of funds into the ETF market was 120.526 billion yuan, slowing down from the previous month. Cross - border ETFs had a net inflow of 54.892 billion yuan, bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of 17.884 billion yuan, and stock - type ETFs had a net inflow of 13.017 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market was 455.931 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume was 164.867 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 7.94%, a decrease of 1.72 pct from October. Many broad - based indices such as the CSI 300 experienced capital outflows, while ETFs related to gold, Hong Kong technology, non - bank finance, and innovative drugs had the highest net inflows. Some ETFs had significant gains or losses, and specific funds had large net inflows or outflows [5][58][62]. 3.4 Model Operation Situation - In November, the risk - parity model declined by 0.14%, and the risk - budget model declined by 0.34%. Since 2015, the annualized return of the risk - parity model was 4.74% with a maximum drawdown of 2.31%, and the annualized return of the risk - budget model was 4.90% with a maximum drawdown of 9.80%. The asset allocation weights of the models will remain unchanged next month. For the risk - parity model, the weights of stocks, bonds, commodities, and QDII are 6%, 66%, 14%, and 14% respectively; for the risk - budget model, the weights are 13%, 48%, 10%, and 30% respectively [6][74][75].

Group 1: Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - The U.S. economy in 2026 may be more fragile than it appears, with growth driven mainly by AI-related investments and high-income consumer spending, while other contributions remain minimal[4] - The unemployment rate is expected to maintain balance under constrained supply and demand, but the labor market is still experiencing cyclical slowdowns[4] - Inflation is projected to slow down in its return to target levels due to core components, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process[4] Group 2: Domestic Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a shift in policy focus to solidify development foundations while addressing external uncertainties and weak internal demand[5] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain "more proactive," with an emphasis on early deployment and investment in human capital[5] - Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative but will focus more on credit quality and liquidity management[5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Environment - China's economic growth in 2026 is anticipated to stabilize around 5%, with investment leading the recovery while consumption requires systematic policy support[6] - External demand is expected to ensure stable growth in industrial value added, with a focus on high-tech industries and their ability to enhance competitiveness[6] - Inflation is expected to have a basis for recovery, particularly with the PPI growth potentially rebounding significantly[6] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Geopolitical risks and unexpected economic and policy changes pose significant threats to the economic outlook[7]

晨会纪要（2025/12/03） 发行及成交金额增长，继续选择票息策略——信用债 12 月投资策略展望 基金研究 权益市场全面迎来修复，公募基金规模再创新高——公募基金周报 风险偏好持续上升，成长风格占据市场主导——公募基金 2026 年年度投资策 略 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额大幅上升——2026 年融资融券年报 证 公司研究 券 盈利能力提升明显，各业务发展稳步推进——民士达（920394）2025 年三季 报点评 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.03） 固定收益研究 研 行业研究 究 报 "冰雪假"拉动相关消费，盈峰溢价受让索菲亚股份——轻工制造&纺织服 饰行业 12 月投资策略展望 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 9 晨会纪要（2025/12/03） 固定收益研究 发行及成交金额增长，继续选择票息策略——信用债 12 月投资策略展望 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery in November 2025, driven by improvements in both production and demand, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.2% and the production index increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0% [2][3] - The new orders index also saw an increase of 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, while new export orders rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, reflecting a positive impact from the recent US-China trade discussions [3] - The report highlights that large enterprises' manufacturing PMI fell by 0.6 percentage points to 49.3%, remaining below the threshold, while medium and small enterprises showed improvements, with medium enterprises rising by 0.2 percentage points to 48.9% and small enterprises increasing by 2.0 percentage points to 49.1%, marking the second-highest level this year [3] Group 2 - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 49.5%, the lowest level since 2023, with the construction sector showing a slight recovery while the service sector declined due to the end of holiday effects [4] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating a contraction, primarily due to the decline in the non-manufacturing sector offsetting the manufacturing recovery [4] - Overall, the report suggests that the improvement in manufacturing sentiment is mainly attributed to a stabilizing external environment, with expectations for continued improvement in December due to forthcoming policy deployments [4]

Macro and Strategy Research - The report highlights a divergence in the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, with a 70% market expectation for a cut in December, although the actual impact may be similar whether it occurs in December or January [3][4] - In the U.S., retail sales showed a slowdown, particularly in the automotive sector, while investment in AI-related fields continues to support economic growth [3] - Domestic industrial profits have declined, with a notable drop in profits for mid and downstream industries, while upstream sectors benefited from stable raw material prices [4] Fixed Income Research - The report indicates a downward trend in the average issuance guidance rates for credit bonds in 2025, with a decrease of 151 basis points to 39 basis points compared to 2024 [5][7] - Credit bond issuance in 2025 decreased compared to the previous year, but net financing increased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity in the bond market, with a focus on the "debt and development" narrative, suggesting that credit risk is perceived to be low [7][8] Industry Research - The report discusses the State Council's initiative to promote provincial-level coordination of basic medical insurance, enhancing the system's security capabilities [13][17] - Recent FDA approvals for innovative treatments, such as BeiGene's Sotigalimab for lymphoma, highlight the ongoing advancements in the biopharmaceutical sector [14][15] - The report notes a decline in the SW pharmaceutical index, with a current P/E ratio of 51.78, indicating a significant premium over the CSI 300 index [16] - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the innovative drug sector, particularly in diagnostics, vaccines, and related pharmaceutical companies [16]

晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投 资策略报告 工企利润短期波动，后续关注政策部署——2025 年 1-10 月工业企业效益数据 点评 行业研究 把握创新与出海机遇，关注新技术空间——医药生物行业 2026 年度投资策略 报告 大模型厂商发力 C 端应用，关注 AI 应用商业化落地——计算机行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投资策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 1、 ...