Group 1: Market Overview - Major indices experienced gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.53% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 3.35% over the past five trading days [2] - The trading volume significantly increased, with a total of 8.87 trillion yuan traded, averaging 1.77 trillion yuan per day, which is an increase of 221.8 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - The banking and telecommunications sectors were the only ones to decline, while coal, steel, and construction materials sectors saw the highest gains [2] Group 2: Policy Developments - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project was announced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for the construction of five hydropower stations [2] - The State Council released the "Rural Road Regulations," emphasizing the need for upgrading rural roads, with an estimated 117.1 billion yuan required for the upgrade of approximately 125,000 kilometers of rural roads [2] - Recent infrastructure investments are expected to further stimulate economic growth, supported by ongoing "anti-involution" policies [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The market is expected to benefit from the deployment of major hydropower and infrastructure projects, with supply-side expectations and demand-side policies driving index growth [3] - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as electric equipment, resource products, and construction materials, driven by "anti-involution" and infrastructure stability [3] - The TMT sector, pharmaceuticals, and defense industries are also highlighted as areas with potential investment opportunities due to AI trends and international expansion [3] Group 4: Fund Analysis - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total number of equity funds reached 7,025, with a total scale of 77,162.93 billion yuan, an increase of 2,660.60 billion yuan from the previous quarter [5] - The average equity allocation for mixed equity funds decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 87.56%, while the weighted average allocation fell by 0.10 percentage points to 88.36% [5] - Significant increases in allocation were observed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and ChiNext, while the allocation to the main board decreased [6] Group 5: Sector Allocation - The sectors with increased allocation include banking, telecommunications, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and defense, while food and beverage, automotive, and electrical equipment sectors saw decreased allocation [6] - The top five stocks held by active equity funds include Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, Tencent Holdings, China Merchants Bank, and Ping An Insurance, with total holdings of 1,427 billion yuan for Ningde Times [6][7]

基金季报 sHuangjin 权益仓位整体下降，增配银行、通信；减配食品饮料、汽车 ――公募权益类基金 2025 年二季报持仓分析 分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2025 年 7 月 24 日 证券分析师 宋旸 songyang@bhzq.com 022-28451131 张笑晨 SAC NO：S1150525070001 zhangxc@bhzq.com 022-23839033 相关研究报告 权 益 市场 主要 指数 延续 上 涨，科创债成为 ETF 资金配 置的主要方向—公募基金周 报 2025.07.21 房地产领涨行业，宽基指数 资金净流出规模收窄―公募 基金周报 2025.07.14 宽基指数资金大幅流出，主 动权益基金仓位上升——公 募基金周报 2025.07.07 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 13 基 金 研 究 券 研 究 报 告 | 1. 权益基金规模、仓位及板块分布情况 4 | | --- | | 1.1 被动指数基金持续高速增长，主动权益类基金仓位水平大体持平 4 | | 1.2 港交所与创业板增配显 ...

Market Overview - During the week of July 16 to July 22, the A-share market saw all major indices rise, with the ChiNext Index experiencing the highest increase of 3.39%, while the Shanghai 50 Index had the smallest rise of 1.64% [2] - As of July 22, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,927.099 billion yuan, an increase of 42.6 billion yuan from the previous week [2] Industry Insights - The electronic, pharmaceutical, and machinery equipment sectors had significant net buying in margin trading, while the food and beverage, retail, and oil and petrochemical sectors saw less net buying [3] - The industries with a higher proportion of margin buying relative to trading volume included non-bank financials, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals, whereas textiles, light manufacturing, and retail had lower proportions [3] ETF and Stock Performance - As of July 22, the financing balance for ETFs was 97.924 billion yuan, an increase of 4.572 billion yuan from the previous week [3] - The top five ETFs by net buying in margin trading were identified as: - Fuguo Zhongzhai 7-10 Year Policy Financial Bond ETF - Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 5-Year Government Bond ETF - Haifutong Zhongzhai Short-term Bond ETF - Haifutong Shanghai Stock Exchange Urban Investment Bond ETF - Pengyang Zhongzhai 30-Year Government Bond ETF [3] Individual Stock Highlights - The top five stocks with the highest net buying in margin trading were: - Xinyi Sheng (300502) - Huadian New Energy (600930) - Northern Rare Earth (600111) - Feiliwa (300395) - China National Materials (002080) [4] - The top five stocks with the highest net selling in margin trading were: - Kweichow Moutai (600519) - Sany Heavy Industry (600031) - CATL (300750) - Jinfat Technology (600143) - Small Commodity City (600415) [4]

Fixed Income Research - The core viewpoint indicates that from July 14 to July 20, the issuance guidance rates for credit bonds showed divergence, with high-grade rates rising and mid-to-low grades declining, with overall changes ranging from -5 BP to 3 BP [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds slightly decreased on a month-on-month basis, with a reduction in corporate bonds and directional tools, while enterprise bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds saw an increase [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with enterprise bonds and directional tools showing an increase, while corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds experienced a decrease [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction amount of credit bonds continued to decline, with all varieties seeing a decrease in transaction amounts [2] - The overall yield of credit bonds decreased, and the credit spreads for medium-term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds narrowed [2] - The report suggests that despite the potential for fluctuations, the long-term yield is expected to continue on a downward trend, and investors should consider increasing allocations during adjustments while focusing on the trend of interest rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds [2] Industry Research - The report highlights that the central urban work conference indicates a shift in urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, which will serve as a new policy foundation [3] - In the real estate sector, ongoing optimization of policies is expected to support the market's stabilization, with a focus on high-quality central and state-owned enterprises, as well as high-quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees [3] - The report notes that the recent launch of a large hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, will significantly increase the demand for special steel, particularly in high-altitude and corrosive environments [5] - The aluminum market is expected to see price support from domestic policies, while the lithium market faces supply surplus pressure, limiting price increases [5] - The report anticipates that the rare earth market will benefit from improved export demand, with June exports showing a significant increase of 32.02% month-on-month [5][6] - The overall strategy maintains a neutral rating for the steel industry and a positive rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with specific recommendations for companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zhongjin Gold [6]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the CSI 300 index [30][38]. Core Views - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project officially commenced on July 19, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is expected to generate a demand for construction machinery of around 180 billion yuan [30][11]. - Excavator sales in June 2025 reached 18,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with total sales for the first half of the year at 120,500 units, up 16.8% year-on-year [30][4]. - The average operating rate of construction machinery nationwide in the first half of 2025 was 44.81%, indicating stable progress in infrastructure projects [30][11]. Industry News - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project officially started on July 19, 2025, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [11]. - UBTECH won a procurement project for robotic equipment worth 90.5115 million yuan, marking one of the largest single procurement orders in the industry [11]. - The average operating rate of construction machinery in the first half of 2025 was 44.81%, with 15 provinces exceeding 50% [11]. Company Announcements - Dongfang Precision signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Leju Robotics on July 21, 2025, focusing on humanoid robots [18]. - Kory Technology plans to increase its wholly-owned subsidiary Kory Technology's capital by 300 million yuan [19]. Market Review - From July 16 to July 22, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.49%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry increased by 5.05%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.57 percentage points [20][3]. - As of July 22, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry was 28.92 times, with a valuation premium of 126.54% compared to the CSI 300 [21][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with specific "Buy" ratings for companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights the commencement of a major hydropower project in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, which is expected to significantly increase the demand for special steel products due to the project's requirements [4][18]. - The report anticipates that the domestic economic stimulus policies will gradually show effects, supporting the prices of copper and aluminum, while the lithium market faces oversupply pressure [5][40][47]. - The report notes a substantial increase in China's rare earth exports in June, indicating a potential for price strengthening in the rare earth sector due to improved export demand [4][62]. Industry Summary Steel Industry - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which will likely boost demand for special steels [4][18]. - As of July 18, the total steel inventory was 13.3141 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.12% from the previous week and a year-on-year decrease of 22.71% [26]. - The average price index for steel on July 18 was 3,462.31 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.99% [39]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report indicates that the copper market is experiencing tight supply and low inventory, which may support prices in the short term [40]. - For aluminum, domestic policies are expected to support prices despite uncertainties in overseas tariff policies [47]. - The lithium market is under pressure from oversupply, but recent policy changes may provide some support for price recovery [53][54]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - In June, China's rare earth exports reached 7,742.2 tons, a significant month-on-month increase of 32.02%, suggesting a positive outlook for rare earth prices [4][62]. - The report also notes price movements in minor metals, with tungsten concentrate prices increasing by 2.27% to 180,000 yuan per ton [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From July 14th to July 20th, the issuance guiding rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors showed divergence, with high - grade rates rising overall and medium - low - grade rates falling overall, with a change range of - 5 BP to 3 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased slightly month - on - month, and the net financing amount also decreased. In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds continued to decline, and the yields of credit bonds decreased overall. The credit spreads of medium - short - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds narrowed overall. [1][62] - From a long - term perspective, the yields of credit bonds are still in a downward channel. Due to the current high price, the risk of chasing high is relatively large. When allocating, investors can wait for opportunities and increase positions during adjustments. They should focus on the change trend of interest - rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds. At present, the effect of credit sinking is not good, and there is a demand to increase the duration to increase returns. High - grade 5 - year varieties can be considered first. [1][62] - The central and local governments have continuously optimized real - estate policies, which have played a positive role in promoting the real - estate market to stop falling and stabilize. For real - estate bonds, investors with high risk preferences can consider early layout, focusing on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and high - quality private - enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. For urban investment bonds, the possibility of default is very low, and they can still be a key allocation variety of credit bonds. [2][66][68] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market Situation 1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From July 14th to July 20th, a total of 343 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 281.016 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. The net financing amount was 44.902 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 38.421 billion yuan. [12] - In terms of different varieties, the issuance amounts of corporate bonds and private placement notes decreased, while those of enterprise bonds, medium - term notes, and short - term financing bills increased. The net financing amounts of enterprise bonds and private placement notes increased, while those of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and short - term financing bills decreased. The net financing amounts of enterprise bonds, private placement notes, and short - term financing bills were negative, while those of corporate bonds and medium - term notes were positive. [13] 1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guiding rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors showed divergence. High - grade rates rose overall, and medium - low - grade rates fell overall, with a change range of - 5 BP to 3 BP. By term, the 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year varieties had different interest - rate change ranges. By grade, different grades also had different interest - rate change ranges. [14] 2. Secondary Market Situation 2.1 Market Trading Volume - From July 14th to July 20th, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 864.586 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 5.24%. The trading volumes of all varieties decreased. [19] 2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - short - term notes, all varieties' credit spreads narrowed. For enterprise bonds, all varieties' credit spreads narrowed. For urban investment bonds, most varieties' credit spreads narrowed, but there were some exceptions in specific grades and terms. [22][33][37] 2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 0.35 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread narrowed by 0.44 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 2.17 BP. For 3 - year medium - short - term notes, the (AA - )-(AAA) rating spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) rating spread remained unchanged. [46] - For AA + enterprise bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 1.19 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread widened by 0.78 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 1.28 BP. For 3 - year enterprise bonds, the (AA - )-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) rating spread remained unchanged. [52] - For AA + urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 0.45 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread widened by 2.29 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 1.24 BP. For 3 - year urban investment bonds, the (AA - )-(AAA) rating spread widened by 7.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) rating spread widened by 2.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP. [55] 3. Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From July 14th to July 20th, a total of 4 companies had their ratings (including outlooks) adjusted, with 1 downgraded and 3 upgraded. [59] 3.2 Default and Extended - Maturity Bond Statistics - From July 14th to July 20th, there were no credit - bond defaults or bond - maturity extensions. [61] 4. Investment Views - The investment views are basically the same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the current situation of credit - bond issuance, trading, and spread changes, and providing investment suggestions from absolute and relative return perspectives. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of stable - growth policies, capital - market conditions, and supply - demand patterns on the bond market. [1][62] - For real - estate bonds, with the real - estate market showing signs of stabilization, investors with high risk preferences can consider early layout, focusing on high - quality bonds and properly speculating on the trading opportunities brought by the valuation repair of undervalued real - estate enterprise bonds. For urban investment bonds, they can still be a key allocation variety, and the short - term credit risk is controllable. [2][66][68]

Macro and Strategy Research - The report discusses the international experience of inheritance tax systems, noting that 63.2% of OECD countries currently impose inheritance taxes, with the average tax revenue from inheritance tax being only 0.5% of total tax revenue [3] - It highlights the trend of high exemption thresholds combined with high tax rates or low exemption thresholds with low tax rates in OECD countries, with a gradual decrease in the highest marginal tax rates and an increase in exemption thresholds [3] - The report suggests that the potential introduction of inheritance tax in China is likely due to the increasing wealth transfer and the push for common prosperity [3] Fund Research - The report indicates that major equity indices continued to rise, with the CSI 300 index showing significant gains in price-to-earnings ratio valuation percentiles [6] - It notes that 19 out of 31 primary industries experienced growth, with the top five performing industries being telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, automotive, machinery, and defense [6] - The report mentions that the ETF market saw a net inflow of 562.65 billion yuan, with bond ETFs, particularly those focused on technology innovation, being the main beneficiaries [7][8] Industry Research - The report states that in June, the retail sales of furniture and clothing categories grew by 28.7% and 1.9% year-on-year, respectively, driven by e-commerce promotions and government policies [9] - It highlights that the light manufacturing industry underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.01 percentage points, while the textile and apparel industry lagged by 0.85 percentage points [9] - The report emphasizes the expected increase in demand for electric two-wheelers in Vietnam due to the government's ban on fossil fuel vehicles, which could benefit domestic electric two-wheeler companies [12]

Group 1: International Experience of Inheritance Tax - 63.2% of OECD member countries impose inheritance tax, with 24 out of 38 countries currently collecting it[22] - In 24 OECD countries that collect inheritance tax, the average revenue from inheritance tax accounts for only 0.5% of total tax revenue[25] - The highest marginal tax rates in OECD countries have gradually decreased from 70% in 1980 to 34% in 2019, while the exemption threshold has increased from $50,000 to $320,000[36] Group 2: Japan's Inheritance Tax System - Japan's inheritance tax system is characterized by a "prior legal, then actual" approach, ensuring that high-value assets are taxed appropriately[47] - As of 2020, securities and cash deposits accounted for 48.9% of inherited assets in Japan, totaling ¥85 trillion[55] - Japan's inheritance tax has seen an increase in taxable cases relative to the number of deaths, while the actual tax burden has decreased due to government measures[55] Group 3: Domestic Asset Transfer in China - China currently does not officially impose inheritance or gift taxes, but related fees may apply to asset transfers, including contract tax and notarization fees[78] - For bank deposits exceeding ¥50,000, heirs must pay notarization fees, which can reach up to ¥41,400 for non-property assets in Tianjin[84] - The future scale of intergenerational wealth transfer in China is expected to increase significantly, with projections reaching ¥79 trillion in 20 years[42]

Macroeconomic Research - The report highlights the increasing significance of domestic circulation in the economy, with external pressures impacting the overall economic performance [2][3] - In June, external demand was boosted by the easing of tariffs, but domestic demand remained weak, particularly in the real estate market [3] - Financial data showed an unexpected increase in social financing and M1 growth, indicating a positive trend in the financial sector [3][5] Fixed Income Research - The report indicates a return to a fluctuating pattern in the bond market, with a notable increase in the issuance of government bonds [4][6] - Financial data for June showed improvements in both total volume and structure, with private sector financing demand showing signs of recovery [5] - The bond market is expected to remain stable, with liquidity being a key variable influencing market performance [6] Industry Research - The report discusses the launch of the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, with rules being further optimized to enhance the procurement process [7][9] - Notable company announcements include the acceptance of applications for new drug approvals and acquisitions within the pharmaceutical sector [8] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a significant increase in stock performance, with the industry index rising by 4.52% during the reporting period [8][9]