行 业 研 究 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo] 加力支持以旧换新，关注扩大内需细分领域机会 | ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 | 分析师： | 袁艺博 | SAC NO： | 年 | 月 | 日 | S1150521120002 | 2025 | 3 | 10 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Author] | 证券分析师 | [Table_Summary] | 投资要点： | 袁艺博 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 行业要闻 | 022-23839135 | yuanyb@bhzq.com | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | （1）纸厂惊现千元涨价函，上一次还是两年前。 | [Tab ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in the index by over 10% compared to the CSI 300 index [35]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of resilience in the US service sector, but concerns about "stagflation" are resurfacing due to significant declines in consumer spending and persistent inflation pressures [1]. - In Europe, while service inflation has eased, overall CPI growth has exceeded expectations, leading to a recovery in risk appetite within the Eurozone [1]. - Domestic manufacturing and service PMI have shown seasonal recovery post-holiday, but sustainability of this recovery remains a concern [3]. - The government has indicated a proactive stance on economic policies, emphasizing the importance of consumption, technological innovation, and stability in real estate and stock markets [3]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - The US economy is facing challenges with consumer spending showing the largest decline in four years, while inflation remains difficult to control [1]. - European economic indicators are stabilizing, supported by expectations of loose fiscal policies in Germany [1]. Domestic Economic Environment - Domestic PMI for manufacturing and services has rebounded, but future sustainability needs monitoring [3]. - The government has set clear economic growth and inflation targets, with a focus on flexible policies to support consumption and innovation [3]. High-Frequency Data - Real estate transactions are recovering, while prices for various commodities show mixed trends, with steel prices declining and non-ferrous metals generally rising [3].

行 业 研 究 | S | 渤 海 证 券 | | --- | --- | | | Bohai Securities | [Table_MainInfo] 关注 AI 赋能家居企业，以及 AI 眼镜投资机会 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 | | 分析师： 袁艺博 | | | | | SAC NO： | S1150521120002 2025 年 2 月 24 日 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： | | | | | 袁艺博 | | 行业要闻 | | | | | | | | | | | | 022-23839135 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | yuanyb@bhzq.com | | | | | | （1）欧盟对中国产装饰纸（Decor Paper）作出反倾销初裁。 | | | | | | | | [Tabl ...

请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 12 行 业 研 究 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo]挖机销售预期向好，关注工程机械需求回暖 | | | | ――机械设备行业周报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： 宁前羽 | SAC NO： | | S1150522070001 2025 年 3 月 6 日 | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | | [Table_Summary] | | 宁前羽 | | | 投资要点： | | 022-23839174 | | |  行业要闻 | | ningqy@bhzq.com | | | | | | | | （1）2 月中国工程机械市场指数（CMI）为 106.68，同比增长 13.53%。 | | | | | （2）第 21 届天津工博会于 3 月 6 日-9 日在国家会展中心（天津）举办。 | | [Table_IndInvest] 子行业评级 | | | | | 通用设备 | | 看好 |  公司公告 | | 专用设备 | | 中性 | （1）绿的谐波将剩余超募 ...

行 业 研 究 行业月报 [Table_MainInfo]楼市企稳可期，扩大内需为首要任务 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业 3 月月报 | 分析师： | 袁艺博 | SAC NO： | 年 | 月 | 日 | S1150521120002 | 2025 | 3 | 6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Author] | 证券分析师 | [Table_Summary] | 投资要点： | 袁艺博 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 行业发展情况 |  | 022-23839135 | 年，社会消费品零售总额家具类为 | 亿元，同比增长 | 3.60%。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2024 | 1,691.10 | yuanyb@ ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_MainInfo] 挖机销售预期向好，人形机器人催化频出 ——机械设备行业 3 月月报 分析师： 宁前羽 SAC NO： S1150522070001 2025 年 3 月 5 日 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行情回顾 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 022-23839174 ningqy@bhzq.com 2025 年 2 月 2 日-2025 年 3 月 4 日，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.79%，申万机械 设备行业上涨 12.37%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 10.59 个百分点，在申万所有一 级行业中位于第 2 位。 截至 2025 年 3 月 4 日，申万机械设备行业 TTM 市盈率为 29.20 倍（整体法， 剔除负值），相对于沪深 300 的估值溢价率为 144.33%。 个股方面，涨幅居前的有万达轴承（332.03%）、浩淼科技（140.22%）、灵 鸽科技（138.02%）、春光药装（129.93%）、杭齿前进（114.44%），其中， 万达轴承受机器人概念带动表现较好；跌幅居前的有电光科技（-20.39%）、 应流股份（-20.28%） ...

| 公 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 公司深度报告 | | | 司 | | | | | | | | [Table_MainInfo] | | | | | 持续推进战略转型，关注公司产品类业务进展 | | | | | 研 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ——拓斯达（300607）公司深度报告 | | | 究 | | S1150522070001 | | | | | | 分析师： 宁前羽 | | SAC NO： | | | | | 年 月 日 2025 03 04 | | | | | 工业机器人国产化率提升明显，机器换人为长期逻辑 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | [Table_Analysis] 机械设备——自动化设备 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_MainInfo] 智能眼镜销售预期乐观，关注两会地产、消费政策 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 分析师： 袁艺博 SAC NO： S1150521120002 2025 年 3 月 3 日 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行业要闻 （1）多地纸厂宣布 3 月调涨，部分纸板厂发布涨价函。 （2）唯品会业绩承压，服饰品类是增长亮点。 公司重要公告 （1）伟星股份：公司 2024 年业绩同比增长 26.44%。 （2）太阳纸业：公司 2024 年业绩同比增长 1.29%。 行情回顾 2 月 24 日至 2 月 28 日，轻工制造行业跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.41 个百分点：SW 轻工制造（0.19%）VS 沪深 300（-2.22%）；纺织服饰行业跑赢沪深 300 指 数 3.09 个百分点：SW 纺织服饰（0.86%）VS 沪深 300（-2.22%）。 本周策略 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 袁艺博 022-23839135 yuanyb@bhzq.com [Table_Contactor] [Tab [Table_IndInvest] 子行业评级 le ...

Investment Ratings - Steel industry: Neutral [5] - Non-ferrous metals industry: Positive [5] Core Insights - March is a traditional peak season for steel, with expectations for gradual recovery in demand from the construction sector, supported by automotive and other industries. Steel prices may rebound due to demand, but actual recovery needs to be monitored alongside domestic macro policies and foreign tariff impacts [1][14]. - Copper supply remains tight, providing price support. The "Two New" policies are expected to stimulate consumption, and if demand rebounds, copper prices may have upward potential. Attention should be paid to domestic macro policies and actual demand data, as well as potential new tariffs on copper imports from the U.S. [2][25]. - Aluminum prices have seen a significant decline in February, but profits for electrolytic aluminum companies are expected to improve. March is also a traditional peak season, and if downstream demand recovers well, inventory levels may turn around [2][27]. - Lithium demand is expected to gradually recover in March, but supply remains loose, leading to a weak price outlook [33]. - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to a four-month export suspension of cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has increased purchasing willingness in the downstream market [2][37]. - Nickel prices are expected to remain in a range due to oversupply and inventory pressure, with attention needed on policies from Indonesia and the Philippines [2][39]. Summary by Sections Steel - The PMI index for the steel industry in February was 45.1%, indicating contraction but a 1.8 percentage point increase from the previous month. Steel production is stabilizing post-holiday, but demand recovery is slower than supply [14][15]. - In December 2024, national apparent steel consumption was 109.99 million tons, a 0.01% decrease month-on-month but an 8.45% increase year-on-year [15]. - In December 2024, crude steel production was 75.97 million tons, a 3.10% decrease month-on-month but an 11.80% increase year-on-year [16]. Copper - In December 2024, refined copper production was 1.24 million tons, a 9.62% increase month-on-month and a 6.24% increase year-on-year [25]. - LME copper prices increased by 3.45% to $9,400 per ton, while domestic prices rose by 2.23% to ¥76,900 per ton [25]. Aluminum - In December 2024, domestic alumina production was 7.51 million tons, a 0.65% decrease month-on-month but a 9.70% increase year-on-year [27]. - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.80% to $2,600 per ton, while domestic prices rose by 2.44% to ¥20,600 per ton [27]. Lithium - Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell by 3.14% to ¥75,600 per ton [33]. - Domestic lithium production in January was 35,100 tons, a 9.37% decrease year-on-year [33]. Cobalt - The average price of 1 cobalt increased by 5.99% to ¥177,000 per ton [37]. - Domestic sulfuric acid cobalt production in January was 19,900 tons, a 24.79% decrease year-on-year [37]. Nickel - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.29% to $15,500 per ton, while domestic nickel sulfate prices fell by 0.68% to ¥29,100 per ton [39]. - Domestic electrolytic nickel production in January was 30,000 tons, an 18.70% increase year-on-year [39]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - Prices for rare earths such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide increased by 6.99% to ¥444,000 per ton [41]. - Tungsten concentrate prices decreased by 1.38% to ¥143,000 per ton [44].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating for the industry, indicating a projected performance within a range of -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next 12 months [53]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of resilience in the U.S. with a combination of inflation rebound and strong employment, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts [3][15]. - In Europe, economic fundamentals are improving, but the European Central Bank is likely to continue a gradual rate cut approach due to ongoing uncertainties [4][25]. - Domestic consumption is expected to continue its recovery trend, with significant growth in retail and service sectors during the Spring Festival period [28]. - The export sector is showing resilience, supported by increased container throughput at ports and a recovery in the semiconductor supply chain [29]. - Inflation is anticipated to be influenced by seasonal factors, with CPI expected to decline post-Spring Festival due to the normalization of prices [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - U.S. GDP growth for Q4 2024 was revised to 2.3%, with consumer spending remaining strong despite some downward pressures from non-residential investment [13]. - The Eurozone's GDP growth for Q4 2024 was adjusted to 0.1%, with improvements in service and manufacturing PMIs, although disparities among major economies persist [24]. 2. Domestic Economy - Consumption during the Spring Festival saw a 10.8% increase in daily sales compared to the previous year, with significant growth in both goods and services [28]. - Investment in real estate remains under pressure, with construction activity not yet returning to pre-holiday levels [29]. - Export growth is expected to maintain resilience, aided by a recovery in global manufacturing and proactive export strategies [29]. 3. Domestic Policy Environment - The central bank is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with potential adjustments post the National People's Congress [6]. - Fiscal policy discussions during the upcoming meetings are likely to focus on stimulating domestic demand and supporting new productivity initiatives [45].