行 业 研 究 [Table_MainInfo] "两新"政策加力扩围，宠物食品进口关税上调 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 | | 分析师： 袁艺博 | | | | SAC NO： | | | S1150521120002 | | 年 2025 | 月 1 | 6 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | | | 袁艺博 | | 行业要闻 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 022-23839135 yuanyb@bhzq.com | | （1）2025 | | | | 年多个纸种继续实施进口零关税。 | | | | | | | | | [Table_Contactor] | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | [Table_Contactor] [Table_IndInvest] 子行业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Positive" rating, with specific companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC receiving an "Increase" rating [33][61]. Core Insights - The construction machinery sector shows signs of recovery, with excavator sales improving significantly due to large-scale equipment renewal policies, achieving over 20% growth for three consecutive months [51][58]. - Fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector has seen a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.30% from January to November 2024, maintaining the growth rate from the previous ten months [15]. - The industrial robot market is expanding, with a cumulative production of approximately 483,900 units from January to November 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.10% [80]. Summary by Sections Sub-industry Ratings - General Equipment: Positive - Specialized Equipment: Neutral - Transportation Equipment: Neutral - Engineering Machinery: Positive - Automation Equipment: Positive [6]. Monthly Stock Pool - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC, all rated for increase [7]. Market Performance - The machinery equipment industry underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 1.92% from December 1 to December 31, 2024, trailing the index by 2.39 percentage points [57]. Infrastructure Investment - National railway fixed asset investment reached 711.7 billion yuan from January to November 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 11.08% [27]. - The cumulative production of high-speed trains during the same period was 1,576 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 43.80% [27]. Economic Indicators - The consumer price index (CPI) showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% in November 2024, while the producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month [69].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the Light Industry Manufacturing and Textile & Apparel sectors [3][4] Core Views - The home furnishing sector is expected to benefit from policy-driven demand recovery and valuation repair, with the PE-TTM of the Shenwan Home Furnishing sector at 18.66x, below the 5-year median of 24.60x [1] - The paper products sector saw a price increase due to production cuts and price hikes by leading companies, with whiteboard paper, coated paper, and corrugated paper rising by 250 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton, and 180 yuan/ton respectively [22][58] - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the CSI 300 by 3.39 percentage points, driven by strong performance in the apparel and home textile sub-sector [3][39] Industry Development Overview - From January to November, domestic furniture retail sales reached 150.49 billion yuan, up 2.9% YoY, while furniture manufacturing revenue was 601.68 billion yuan, up 0.8% YoY [10] - In November, furniture exports declined by 2.6% YoY to 5.929 billion USD, while furniture accessory exports grew by 0.5% YoY to 249 million USD [11] - The Building Materials Home Index (BHI) fell to 118.24 in November, down 9.41 points MoM, reflecting a seasonal slowdown post the "Golden September and Silver October" period [12] Paper Industry Data - From January to November, domestic paper and paperboard production increased by 9.1% YoY to 144.18 million tons [45] - In November, paper pulp imports fell by 13.2% YoY to 2.8 million tons, while paper and paper product exports rose by 10.8% YoY to 1.44 million tons [45] Textile and Apparel Industry Data - From January to November, retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles reached 1.307 trillion yuan, up 0.4% YoY, with clothing sales flat at 949.3 billion yuan [48] - In November, footwear exports declined by 1.9% YoY to 3.783 billion USD, while apparel exports grew by 4.3% YoY to 13.017 billion USD [49] Market Performance - From November 22 to December 27, the Light Industry Manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 by 0.15 percentage points, with the entertainment sub-sector leading with an 8.85% gain [38] - The Textile & Apparel sector outperformed the CSI 300 by 3.39 percentage points, driven by strong performance in the apparel and home textile sub-sector [39] Policy and Strategy - The report highlights the potential for valuation repair in the home furnishing sector due to policy support for domestic demand expansion and the "old-for-new" consumer goods replacement policy [1][41] - The paper products sector is expected to see improved profitability due to price hikes and seasonal demand support from the upcoming Spring Festival [22][58]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [67] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic pet food enterprise with a strong self-owned brand, continuously expanding and moving towards high-end markets [3] - The pet industry is in a favorable development phase, with the company benefiting from its strong R&D capabilities and product differentiation [3] - The company's self-owned brand, "Myfoodie," has achieved significant growth, with a CAGR of 40.33% from 2020 to 2023 [32] - The company's direct sales channel exceeded 1 billion yuan, with impressive performance during key e-commerce sales events like "618" and "Double 11" [39] Company Development and Brand Strategy - The company was founded in 2006, starting with OEM/ODM business and launched its self-owned brand "Myfoodie" in 2013 [3] - The company has been focusing on high-end markets since 2019, launching high-end cat food brand "Fleigarte" and acquiring the US brand "Waggin'Train" in 2021 [12] - In 2024, the company further advanced its high-end strategy by introducing a high-end dog food brand "Wang Zhen Chun" [12] - The company's self-owned brand revenue reached 2.745 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for a leading share in the industry [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023 was 4.327 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27.4% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was 429 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 60.7% [4] - The company's gross profit margin increased from 32.6% in 2022 to 36.8% in 2023, and is expected to reach 40.6% by 2026 [4] - The company's net profit margin is projected to increase from 7.8% in 2022 to 12.1% by 2026 [4] R&D and Product Innovation - The company's R&D capabilities have effectively translated into product strength, with significant sales during key e-commerce events [3] - The company has developed a variety of product lines, including dual-grain series, probiotic-based main food series, and freeze-dried products [5][6][7] - The company's R&D expenses increased from 68 million yuan in 2022 to 132 million yuan in 2026, reflecting its commitment to innovation [4] Market and Industry Overview - The domestic pet industry exceeded 300 billion yuan in 2024, with the pet food industry reaching 158.506 billion yuan [82] - The pet food industry is expected to grow to 404.2 billion yuan by 2027, with significant potential in the cat food market [82] - Domestic pet food brands are gradually rising, with increasing consumer preference for local brands [82] Sales and Distribution Channels - The company's direct sales revenue reached 1.236 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 57.02% [39] - The company's online sales during "618" and "Double 11" in 2024 increased by 40% and 65% respectively [3] - The company's distribution channel revenue reached 1.668 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 35.45% from 2020 to 2023 [25] Geographic and Supply Chain Advantages - The company is located in Shandong, a major agricultural province, providing it with a supply chain advantage [43] - The company has diversified its supply chain, reducing its reliance on single suppliers, with the top five suppliers accounting for 15.91% of total procurement in 2023 [50] Future Projections - The company's revenue is expected to reach 7.575 billion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 18.4% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach 912 million yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 25.9% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - The company's EPS is expected to increase from 1.43 yuan in 2024 to 2.28 yuan in 2026 [55]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant trend towards high-horsepower tractors and emphasizes the investment opportunities arising from the increase in agricultural mechanization rates. It notes that since 2004, the proportion of agricultural employment in China has been declining, reaching only 22.57% in 2022. This reduction in agricultural labor necessitates a shift towards large-scale mechanized agricultural production to ensure food security [5][6]. - The report indicates that while the mechanization rates for crops like wheat and corn are relatively high, there remains substantial room for improvement in the overall mechanization rate. As of 2023, the total number of tractors in China is approximately 21.13 million, with large and medium tractors accounting for 26.07% of this total, reflecting a clear trend towards higher horsepower tractors [5][6]. - The report also discusses the growth in the area of contracted farmland, which has increased from 6.4 million acres in 2007 to 57.6 million acres in 2022, with some provinces reaching a land transfer rate of 50%. This trend supports the development of large-scale, intensive, and modern agricultural operations, positively impacting agricultural productivity and farmer income stability [6]. - The report notes that in 2024, the government will adjust subsidies for agricultural machinery purchases and scrapping, which will lower the costs of acquiring agricultural machinery and promote mechanization levels. Additionally, the recovery of agricultural machinery exports is expected to improve domestic demand, supported by favorable domestic policies [6][19]. - The company has seen revenue recovery in the first three quarters of 2024, with net profit continuing to rise, aided by the reduction of low-efficiency assets since 2017. The company leads in market share for large and medium tractors, showcasing its competitive advantages in high-end agricultural machinery [6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established as the First Tractor Manufacturing Plant in 1955, has evolved into a major player in China's agricultural machinery industry, with both A and H shares listed. The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the largest shareholder holding 48.81% of the shares [16][27]. Industry Background - The agricultural machinery sector is diverse, with tractors being a primary tool. The report emphasizes the ongoing need for mechanization in China's agriculture, highlighting the potential for growth in this area [39][40]. Financial Analysis - The report provides financial forecasts for the company, projecting total revenue of 11.93 billion, 12.79 billion, and 14.01 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Net profits are expected to be 1.02 billion, 1.15 billion, and 1.33 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding EPS of 0.91, 1.02, and 1.18 yuan [7][8]. Profitability Forecast - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 16.74 for 2024, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability and growth potential [7][8].

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "Cautious" for general equipment and engineering machinery, while "Neutral" for specialized and transportation equipment [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a "Cautious" rating for the industry, with a recommendation to "Increase Holdings" for specific companies including SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC [7][46]. Industry News - In November, forklift sales reached approximately 104,944 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.07% [24]. - The urban rail passenger volume in China for November was 2.71 billion trips, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [24]. - The operating hours for Komatsu excavators in China were 105.4 hours in November, marking a 4.4% year-on-year increase [24]. Industry Data - The steel composite price index (CSPI) slightly rebounded to 98.63 as of December 13, 2024 [27]. - As of December 17, 2024, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices were $70.71 per barrel and $73.91 per barrel, respectively [29]. Company Announcements - China Electric Power Research Institute plans to establish its Yangtze River Delta headquarters in Suzhou, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 billion yuan [33]. - Times Electric intends to acquire 100% equity of CRRC Commercial Vehicle Power for approximately 106.93 million yuan [34]. - Kunbo Precision announced a delay in its fundraising project timelines, extending the completion dates to December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2026, respectively [35]. Market Review - From December 11 to December 17, 2024, the CSI 300 index fell by 1.84%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector dropped by 5.73%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.89 percentage points [38]. - As of December 17, 2024, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector was 26.31 times, with a valuation premium of 116.33% relative to the CSI 300 [38]. Weekly Insights - In the engineering machinery sector, excavator sales showed a continuous recovery in November, exceeding previous expectations, with domestic sales benefiting from large-scale equipment renewal policies [46]. - The rail transit sector is entering a concentrated maintenance period, with significant procurement announcements expected to drive market demand [46].

Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral [3] - Non-ferrous Metals: Positive [3] Core Views - The macro policy trend is favorable, but the steel industry may face pressure due to seasonal factors, with short-term steel prices expected to fluctuate [4][5] - Copper supply is tight, supporting copper prices; however, short-term fluctuations are anticipated due to seasonal demand [4][5] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to limited demand during the seasonal consumption lull [4][5] - Lithium prices may decline in the short term due to weakening demand in December, a traditional off-season [4][5] Summary by Sections Industry News - In November, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with declines in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [22] - The national energy work conference emphasized promoting wind and solar energy development by 2025 [22] - Peru's copper production fell by 1.4% in October due to reduced output from major mines [22] - Global electric vehicle sales increased by 32.3% year-on-year in November [22] - China's automobile production and sales reached historical highs in November, with production at 3.437 million units and sales at 3.316 million units [22] Industry Data Steel - The steel industry is entering a traditional off-season, with overall inventory continuing to decline [25] - As of December 13, the total steel inventory was 11.6127 million tons, down 1.61% from December 6 [35] - The average gross profit for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, rebar, and medium-thick plates increased compared to the previous week [46] Copper - Copper smelting output is expected to recover in December as maintenance peaks end, but inventory has risen due to seasonal demand [48] - As of December 13, LME copper prices were $9,000 per ton, with SHFE copper prices at ¥74,800 per ton [53] Aluminum - High alumina prices have led to production cuts in some aluminum plants; short-term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [56][58] - As of December 13, LME aluminum prices were $2,600 per ton, while SHFE aluminum prices were ¥20,300 per ton [59] Lithium - Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell to ¥77,400 per ton, down 1.02% from December 6 [67] - The price of lithium concentrate (6%-6.5%) imported averaged $818 per ton, down 2.04% from the previous week [67]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the Light Industry Manufacturing and Textile & Apparel sectors [9] - Specific companies like Oppein Home, Sophia, Haotaitai, Toread, and Semir are rated as "Overweight" [3][9] Core Views - The report highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand, particularly in high-growth sub-sectors within the Light Industry Manufacturing and Textile & Apparel industries [4] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency, which is expected to positively impact domestic demand [8] - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly driven sales in various sectors, including automobiles, home appliances, and home furnishings, with over 520 million passenger cars, 49 million home appliances, and 51 million home furnishing products sold [9] Industry News - Several international paper giants have announced price increases, with the highest increase reaching $90 per ton [4] - Zara's parent company, Inditex, reported a 7.1% revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit increase of 8.5% [5] Company Announcements - Shanying International raised its share buyback price ceiling to 3.00 yuan per share [6] - La Chapelle's major shareholder, Eurostar Diamond, plans to reduce its stake by 3.00% [7] Market Performance - The Light Industry Manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 4.61 percentage points from December 9 to December 13, with a 3.61% increase compared to the CSI 300's -1.01% [8] - The Textile & Apparel sector outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 5.24 percentage points during the same period, with a 4.23% increase [8] Weekly Strategy - The report suggests that the focus on expanding domestic demand, particularly in areas like "new consumption" and "silver economy," will drive growth in the Light Industry Manufacturing and Textile & Apparel sectors [45] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue stimulating domestic demand, benefiting leading home furnishing companies [9] Key Data Points - Domestic TDI prices remained stable at 12,800 yuan/ton, while MDI prices increased by 120 yuan/ton to 18,800 yuan/ton [21] - Domestic pulp prices saw slight declines, with softwood pulp down 23.22 yuan/ton and hardwood pulp down 28.48 yuan/ton [25] - Whiteboard and white cardboard prices increased by 50.00 yuan/ton and 33.34 yuan/ton, respectively [26] Stock Performance - Top-performing stocks in the Light Industry Manufacturing sector included Yibin Paper (61.05%), Chuangyuan (59.72%), and Shifeng Culture (30.12%) [38] - In the Textile & Apparel sector, top performers included Harson (17.58%), Jinfa Laby (16.62%), and Metersbonwe (15.92%) [41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for general equipment and engineering machinery, and "Neutral" for specialized equipment and transportation equipment [2]. Core Views - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry, highlighting a significant recovery in excavator sales in November, which exceeded expectations. The domestic market is benefiting from large-scale equipment renewal policies, leading to a notable increase in sales [7][48]. - Key companies recommended for investment include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC Corporation, all rated as "Increase" [3][48]. Industry News - In November, excavator sales reached 17,590 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%. Domestic sales accounted for 9,020 units, up 20.5%, while exports were 8,570 units, up 15.2% [5][23]. - Loader sales in November totaled 8,646 units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.56%, with domestic sales down 15.7% [5][24]. Industry Data - The steel composite price index (CSPI) slightly rebounded to 97.44 as of December 6, 2024 [28]. - As of December 10, 2024, WTI and Brent crude oil prices were $68.37 and $72.14 per barrel, respectively [30]. Company Announcements - Dayuan Pump Industry announced a delay in its project to produce 3 million high-efficiency energy-saving pumps, now expected to be operational by June 30, 2026 [34]. - Bojie Co. plans to acquire a 25% stake in Guanghao Technology for 57.5 million yuan, aiming to enhance its strategic development [35]. Market Review - From December 4 to December 10, 2024, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.11%, while the machinery equipment sector increased by 3.42%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.31 percentage points [6][38]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the machinery equipment sector was 27.66, with a valuation premium of 126.62% compared to the CSI 300 [40]. Weekly Insights - The report indicates that excavator sales have shown a continuous recovery, with a significant increase in working hours and operating rates for major products in November. This trend is expected to continue as local government liquidity improves [48]. - In the rail transit sector, there is a notable increase in demand for maintenance and repair services, driven by the government's goal of building a strong transportation network [48].

Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral [4] - Non-ferrous Metals: Positive [4] Core Views - The Central Political Bureau's meeting in December has released positive signals, which are expected to boost market confidence and provide short-term support for steel prices [1][2][3][4]. - The aluminum industry is facing pressure from high alumina prices, while the cancellation of export tax rebates may impact domestic aluminum exports. However, the overall outlook for aluminum prices is expected to be strong in the short term [3][4]. - The copper market is anticipated to lack support due to the end of maintenance periods for most domestic smelters, although positive signals from the Central Political Bureau may lead to a short-term price increase [2][4]. - The lithium market is expected to experience weak performance due to seasonal factors, with supply expected to be strong and demand weak [4][67]. Summary by Sections Steel - The steel industry is entering a traditional off-season, with overall inventory continuing to decline. The Central Political Bureau's meeting has provided positive signals that are expected to support short-term steel prices [25][35]. - As of December 6, the total steel inventory was 1,179.90 million tons, down 1.01% from November 29, and down 9.17% year-on-year [35]. - The average profit margins for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, rebar, and medium-thick plates were negative, indicating pressure on profitability [46]. Copper - The copper market is facing challenges with supply concerns, and the actual consumption is not expected to improve significantly during the traditional off-season. The Central Political Bureau's positive signals may provide some support for copper prices in the short term [2][50]. - As of December 6, the LME copper spot price was $9,000 per ton, reflecting a 1.81% increase from November 29 [54]. Aluminum - The aluminum industry is under pressure from high alumina prices, and the cancellation of export tax rebates may affect domestic aluminum exports. However, the overall outlook for aluminum prices is expected to be strong in the short term due to positive signals from the Central Political Bureau [3][60]. Non-ferrous Metals - The lithium market is expected to see weak performance due to seasonal factors, with supply expected to be strong and demand weak. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 78,200 yuan per ton as of December 6, down 0.38% from November 29 [67].