| 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- | --- | | 李雨琪 | xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | | 021-63325888-3023 | | | liyuqi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP135 | | 金沐阳 | jinmuyang@orientsec.com.cn | 执业证书编号：S0860525030001 传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 阿里发布 Qwen 3，国内大模型发布加速 ——AI 周度跟踪 2025 年第 6 期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 看好 AI 新周期带动算力-算法-应用生态三端依次持续推进，我们建议增加港股互联 网板块配置仓位，核心推荐处于产业链前端，云消费弹性明显+基模实力领先+算法 具备优势的阿里巴巴-W(09988，买入)，多模态视频生成模型技术全球领先，商业 化变现节奏加快的快手-W(01024，买入 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 物来顺应 ——策略周报 0505 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 06 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 以稳为主：——策略周报 0428 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 缺乏稳定一致预期：——策略周报 0421 | 2025-04-20 | | 市场或仍将保持高波动：— ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a DCF target valuation of 11.48 CNY per share [2][6]. Core Views - The company continues to implement a high dividend policy, with an expected dividend payout ratio of 95.8% for the year [5]. - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company is expected to gradually improve its operations due to strong brand recognition and adjustments in both online and offline channels [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported a revenue of 3,030 million CNY in 2023, with a projected decline to 2,991 million CNY in 2025, followed by a recovery to 3,412 million CNY by 2027 [2][11]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 572 million CNY in 2023 to 540 million CNY in 2025, before increasing to 633 million CNY in 2027 [2][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 0.68 CNY in 2023, decreasing to 0.64 CNY in 2025, and then increasing to 0.76 CNY by 2027 [2][11]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to improve from 55.6% in 2023 to 56.4% in 2027 [2][11]. - **Net Margin**: The net margin is projected to decrease slightly from 18.9% in 2023 to 18.0% in 2024, before recovering to 18.6% in 2027 [2][11]. Channel Performance Summary - **Online Channel**: Revenue from the online channel is expected to decline by 7.4% in 2024, but the gross margin is projected to increase by 2.3 percentage points to 50.3% [5]. - **Direct Sales Channel**: Revenue from direct sales is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2024, with a gross margin of 67.9% [5]. - **Franchise Channel**: Revenue from the franchise channel is projected to grow by 1.4% in 2024, with a gross margin of 55.6% [5]. - **Group Purchase**: Revenue from group purchases is expected to increase by 5.1% in 2024, with a gross margin of 41.6% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a DCF target valuation of 11.48 CNY per share [2][6]. Core Views - The company continues its high dividend policy, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 95.8% for the year 2024, despite a decline in revenue and net profit [5]. - The company is expected to experience a turning point in operations, supported by its strong brand recognition and adjustments in online and offline channels [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported a revenue of 3,030 million CNY in 2023, with a slight decline of 1.6% year-on-year. The forecast for 2024 is 3,011 million CNY, a further decrease of 0.6%, followed by a projected recovery in 2025 with 2,991 million CNY [2][5]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 572 million CNY, down 7.0% year-on-year. The forecast for 2024 is 542 million CNY, a decrease of 5.2%, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [2][5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is projected to be 0.68 CNY for 2023, decreasing to 0.65 CNY in 2024, and further to 0.64 CNY in 2025, with a gradual increase to 0.76 CNY by 2027 [2][5]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 55.6% in 2023 to 56.4% by 2027, indicating a focus on maintaining profitability despite revenue challenges [2][5]. - **Net Margin**: The net margin is projected to decrease from 18.9% in 2023 to 18.0% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 18.6% by 2027 [2][5]. Channel Performance Summary - **Online Channel**: Revenue from online sales is expected to decline by 7.4% in 2024, but the gross margin is projected to improve by 2.3 percentage points to 50.3% [5]. - **Direct Sales Channel**: The direct sales channel is forecasted to grow by 1.8% in 2024, with a gross margin of 67.9% [5]. - **Franchise Channel**: Revenue from franchise operations is expected to increase by 1.4% in 2024, with a slight decline in gross margin [5]. - **Group Purchase Channel**: Revenue from group purchases is projected to grow by 5.1% in 2024, although the gross margin is expected to decrease [5].

核心观点 原油相关信息： ⚫ 原油及相关库存：2025 年 4 月 25 日美国原油商业库存 4.404 亿桶，周减少 270 桶； 汽油库存 2.255 亿桶，周减少 400 万桶；馏分油库存 1.078 亿桶，周增加 90 万桶； 丙烷库存 0.47206 亿桶，周增加 57.6 万桶。美国原油产量及钻机数：2025 年 4 月 25 日美国原油产量为 1346.5 万桶/天，周度增加 0.5 万桶/天，较一年前增加 36.5 万 桶/天。2025 年 5 月 2 日美国钻机数 584 台，周减少 3 台，年减少 21 台；加拿大钻 机数 120 台，周减少 8 台，年度不变。其中美国采油钻机 479 台，减少 4 台，年度 减少 20 台。 价格变化： 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 油价走弱，继续关注内需及国产替代新材 料机会 价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 06 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | ...

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 油价走弱，继续关注内需及国产替代新材 料机会 核心观点 原油相关信息： ⚫ 原油及相关库存：2025 年 4 月 25 日美国原油商业库存 4.404 亿桶，周减少 270 桶； 汽油库存 2.255 亿桶，周减少 400 万桶；馏分油库存 1.078 亿桶，周增加 90 万桶； 丙烷库存 0.47206 亿桶，周增加 57.6 万桶。美国原油产量及钻机数：2025 年 4 月 25 日美国原油产量为 1346.5 万桶/天，周度增加 0.5 万桶/天，较一年前增加 36.5 万 桶/天。2025 年 5 月 2 日美国钻机数 584 台，周减少 3 台，年减少 21 台；加拿大钻 机数 120 台，周减少 8 台，年度不变。其中美国采油钻机 479 台，减少 4 台，年度 减少 20 台。 价格变化： 价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 06 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | ...

杭州银行 600926.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月29日） | 14.81 元 | | 目标价格 | 16.38 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 15.06/11.41 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 635,446/635,446 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 94,110 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 银行 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 05 月 05 日 | 王霄鸿 wangxiaohong@orientsec.com.cn | 业绩高增，扩表提速：——杭州银行 2024 | 2025-04-13 | | --- | --- | | 年年报点评 | | | 澳联邦银行出于自身战略考虑退出，新华 | 2025-01-27 | | 举牌彰显对公司长期发展信心：——杭州 | | | 银行 5.45%股权转让点评 | | | 净利息收入增速继续向上，资产质量优 | 2024-10-22 | | 异：——杭州银行 24Q3 季报点评 | | 存贷两旺，利润保持高增 ——杭州银行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank with a target price of 7.17 CNY per share, reflecting a 20% valuation premium compared to comparable companies [3][7]. Core Views - The report highlights an optimization in the cost-to-income ratio and a rapid growth in corporate business, with a slight decline in revenue growth but a notable increase in non-interest income [2][11]. - The bank's total assets and loan growth remain stable, with corporate loans showing a significant increase, indicating a balanced asset-liability structure [11]. - Asset quality is generally stable, although there is a slight increase in non-performing loans and a decrease in the provision coverage ratio, suggesting ongoing challenges in the retail sector [11]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the bank's operating income is projected at 342,507 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 86,270 million CNY, also reflecting a 1.2% increase [5][12]. - The forecast for net profit growth for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.2%, 1.3%, and 1.7%, respectively, with corresponding BVPS of 8.96, 9.57, and 10.18 CNY [3][5]. - The bank's cost-to-income ratio is expected to improve, with a forecast of 62.80% for 2025E [12]. Key Financial Ratios - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 6.60 for 2025 and a P/B ratio of 0.60 for the same year, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [5][12]. - The return on average assets (ROAA) is expected to decline slightly to 0.49% by 2027, while the return on average equity (ROAE) is projected to decrease to 9.35% [12]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a 1.13% increase over the past week and a 22.17% increase over the past year, indicating positive market sentiment [8].

一季度盈利超预期，新兴品牌快速增长 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据年报和一季报，我们调整盈利预测并引入 2027 年的盈利预测，预计公司 2025- 2027 年每股收益分别为 4.56、5.36 和 6.06 元（原 25-26 年为 4.97 和 6.15 元）， DCF 目标估值 112.46 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、终端消费需求减弱、新品拓展不及预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,905 | 10,778 | 12,339 | 14,072 | 15,577 | | 同比增长 (%) | 39.5% | 21.0% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 10.7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,503 | 1,890 | 2,200 | 2,584 | 2,923 | | 同比增长 (%) | 42.1% | 25.8% | 16.4% | 17.5% | 13.1% | | 归属母 ...

25Q1 业绩显著改善，深度受益面板供给侧 格局优化 核心观点 公司发布 24 年年报和 25 年一季报。2024 年公司营业收入同比下滑 5%到 1648.2 亿元，归母净利润同比下滑 29%到 15.64 亿元。25Q1 公司实现营收 400.8 亿元， 同比增长 0.4%，归母净利润 10.13 亿元，同比增长 322%。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股净资产分别为 3.27、3.53、4.15 元（原 25-26 年预 测为3.55、4.08元，主要调整了营业收入和费用率），根据可比公司25年平均1.81 倍 PB 估值水平，对应目标价 5.92 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 面板需求增长不及预期，公司产能爬坡不及预期，光伏行业需求不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 174,367 | 164,823 | 193,686 | 213,916 | 234,968 | | 同比增长 ( ...