Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a traditional foreign trade platform to an AI-driven digital trade ecosystem, with significant growth potential and a unique application of AI [1]. - The collaboration with Alibaba is deepening, with a complete closed-loop system established from AI tool development to trade scene implementation, significantly enhancing merchant operational efficiency and platform value [1]. - The "World Yiwu" trade model, developed in partnership with Alibaba, is tailored for the Yiwu market, integrating 13 self-developed AI tools into the World Yiwu APP, leading to centralized and intelligent service upgrades [2]. Financial Performance - The CG platform achieved revenue of 257 million yuan and a net profit of 155 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 110% increase [3]. - The company projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 4.24 billion yuan, 5.76 billion yuan, and 6.91 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.9%, 35.9%, and 20.0% [3]. - Financial forecasts indicate a steady increase in operating revenue from 11.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 33.42 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 48.3% in 2023 [4]. AI Application Impact - AI tools have significantly reduced costs and improved efficiency for merchants, with over 280,000 users benefiting from AI products by the end of October 2025 [2]. - The "Small Business AI Design" tool has shortened the design cycle from nearly one month to 7-10 days, reducing overall operating costs by approximately 30% [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [5] Core Insights - Li Ning's Q4 2025 revenue met expectations, with a slight year-on-year decline in overall revenue. Offline channel revenue decreased in the low single digits, while e-commerce revenue remained flat [1] - The children's clothing segment, Li Ning YOUNG, is expected to continue its steady growth, with 1,518 stores by the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a net increase of 50 stores since the beginning of the year. The inventory turnover ratio is projected to be between 4 and 5, indicating a healthy level [2] - For 2025, the company is expected to report a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.742 billion yuan, a 9% year-on-year decline. Revenue is anticipated to show slight growth [2] - In 2026, the company plans to enhance its marketing efforts and test new store formats, projecting a revenue growth of 6.5% and a net profit increase of 5.8% to 2.901 billion yuan [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 29.269 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.1%. The net profit for 2025 is projected at 2.742 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 9% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.06 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.6 times [4] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.0% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 10.6% by 2027 [4]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The report indicates that in 2025, credit expansion showed marginal improvement, with a notable reliance on fiscal expansion, as the proportion of government bonds in social financing reached a historical high [3] - Monthly data reveals that new credit has decreased year-on-year for six consecutive months, with corporate credit performing better than household credit, driven mainly by the implementation of policy financial tools [3] - Looking ahead, the report suggests that the economy remains in a "weak reality," with significant downward pressure, and anticipates proactive policy measures in 2026 to stimulate economic growth [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Analysis - The report discusses the recent volatility in 30-year government bonds, which rose from approximately 1.85% in early July to around 2.3%, an increase of 45 basis points, while local government bonds remained stable [4] - The fitted model indicates that the current 10-year and 30-year local government bond to government bond spreads are at 16 basis points, with upper limits of approximately 23 and 21 basis points, respectively, suggesting limited room for further increases in spreads [4] Group 3: Industry Performance - The report highlights the top-performing industries in January, with Media leading at 25.5%, followed by Non-ferrous Metals at 23.2%, and Defense Industry at 20.5%, while the bottom performers included Banks at -2.5% and Food & Beverage at -1.8% [1] - Over the past year, Non-ferrous Metals showed a remarkable increase of 112.4%, indicating strong sector performance [1] Group 4: Company Insights - The report emphasizes that SenDa Group is a leading player in China's overseas expansion into Africa, leveraging its capabilities to empower the brand LeShuShi through channel, product, and market structure enhancements [5] - Key success factors for SenDa Group include early identification of the direction for industrial and trade integration, local factory establishment, product localization, and deep channel development [5] - The report draws parallels with the operations of Charoen Pokphand Group in China, suggesting that there are valuable lessons to be learned from their century-long operational history [5] Group 5: Strategic Partnerships - The report details a strategic cross-holding agreement between SF Express and J&T Express, where SF will acquire 10% of J&T's shares, while J&T will hold approximately 4.29% of SF's shares, enhancing long-term cooperation [7] - This partnership aims to leverage both companies' strengths in logistics networks and operational capabilities, facilitating better resource allocation and market coverage in key regions [8]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2026 01 15 年 月 日 交通运输 极兔顺丰战略相互持股，星辰大海，共赴征程 合作要点：顺丰以每股 10.10 港元认购极兔 8.22 亿股 B 类股份，交易后 持股 10%（ 含交易前已持有的 1.67%）。极兔以每股 36.74 港元认购顺丰 2.26 亿股 H 股股份，交易后持股约 4.29%。双方所持股票均设五年锁定 期，且顺丰获得极兔董事会一个席位的提名权，可以确保双方合作长期稳 定。交易完成后，双方将实现资源互通、优势互补，在建设全球物流网络、 布局基础设施、业务协同等方面探索更多的业务合作可能性。 海外网络加强：强强联合，卡位出海机遇。 顺丰海外优势：拥有跨境头程 与干线段的核心资源优势和成熟运营体系。极兔海外优势：在东南亚、中 东、拉美等全球 13 个国家拥有末端网络与本地化运营优势。双方优势结 合，可以有效打通从中国出海的头程干线到海外目的地国家"最后一公里" 全链路，共同增强端到端跨境物流解决方案的网络覆盖和产品竞争力。有 助于把握中资企业出海及跨境电商带来的历史性机遇。我们推断，此次合 作使双方得以避免在干线或末端环节进行高投 ...

Core Insights - Despite a 20% decline in exports to the US, China's exports still grew by 5.5% in 2025, driven by rapid growth in high-tech products such as electronic intermediate goods, automobiles, and industrial robots [3] - The import growth rate fell to 0%, resulting in a trade surplus that exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, providing positive support for economic growth [3] - For 2026, China's exports are expected to maintain resilience with a projected growth rate of around 5%, supported by increased openness, stable exports to the US, and advantages in AI and "new three items" products [3] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries in January included Media (29.0%), Defense and Military (24.0%), and Computer (22.8%), while the bottom performers were Banking (-1.8%) and Food & Beverage (-1.3%) [2] - The overall performance of the media sector showed a remarkable annual increase of 63.7%, indicating strong market dynamics [2] Company-Specific Insights First Pacific (00142.HK) - First Pacific has a strong focus on the Asia-Pacific market, with four main business segments: consumer food, telecommunications, infrastructure, and natural resources [7] - In 2024, the company reported revenues of $10.057 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.31%, while net profit increased by 19.77% to $600 million, showcasing robust profitability [7][8] - The company is expected to see net profits of $649 million, $708 million, and $767 million from 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 8.2%, 8.9%, and 8.4% respectively [8] Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) - Dongpeng Beverage anticipates a revenue increase of 31.07% to 33.34% in 2025, with projected revenues between 20.76 billion and 21.12 billion yuan [10] - The company expects net profits to rise by 30.46% to 37.97%, with estimates ranging from 4.34 billion to 4.59 billion yuan [10] - The company is actively expanding its product lines and overseas markets, which is expected to contribute to significant profit growth in the coming years [11][12] Dingjie Intelligence (300378.SZ) - Dingjie Intelligence was recognized as one of the top 20 data intelligence service providers in China, indicating its leadership in AI manufacturing [9] - Revenue projections for Dingjie from 2025 to 2027 are set at 2.438 billion, 2.608 billion, and 2.841 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 180 million, 204 million, and 263 million yuan respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report rates the investment in Leshu Comfort (乐舒适) as "Buy" with projected EPS of 0.16 in 2024, increasing to 0.25 by 2027, and a PE ratio decreasing from 24.20 in 2024 to 133.60 in 2027 [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that SenDa Group is a leading Chinese enterprise in Africa, leveraging its capabilities to empower Leshu Comfort through its channel, product, and market structure [1]. - SenDa Group has established a comprehensive industrial group that integrates overseas manufacturing, international trade, and industrial investment, with a strong presence in various sectors including home decoration materials, fast-moving consumer goods, and hardware [1][12]. - The report draws parallels between SenDa Group's expansion in Africa and Charoen Pokphand Group's (正大集团) historical success in China, suggesting that SenDa Group is poised to replicate this success in emerging markets [5][4]. Summary by Sections SenDa Group: Deepening Localization in Africa - SenDa Group has been operating in Africa for over 20 years, transitioning from traditional trade to localized manufacturing, creating jobs, and driving industry development [12][29]. - The company has established 32 manufacturing operations globally, with sales covering over 60 countries, showcasing its strong global operational capabilities [12][14]. - Key factors for SenDa's success include early identification of the integrated trade and manufacturing model, local production, and strong government-business relationships [32][33]. Empowering Leshu Comfort - SenDa Group provides financial support to Leshu Comfort through loans and advances, enhancing its capital turnover efficiency [3]. - The group offers supply chain and management support, including raw materials, technical assistance, and administrative services [3]. - Leshu Comfort has established a wide sales network across 12 countries with 18 branches and over 2800 wholesalers and retailers [3][39]. Learning from Charoen Pokphand Group's Journey - The report identifies several successful strategies from Charoen Pokphand Group's history, such as seizing market opportunities, extending the industrial chain, and diversifying financing channels [4]. - SenDa Group's current trajectory mirrors that of Charoen Pokphand Group, indicating potential for significant growth in Africa [5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Leshu Comfort's products are competitively priced, with a gross margin of around 30%, making them attractive compared to international brands [38][39]. - The company's localized production strategy allows for rapid response to market demands, reducing shipping times and costs [38][41]. - SenDa Group's investments in local manufacturing not only enhance brand acceptance but also contribute to local economic development [41][42].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of performance forecasts and quick reports during January and February, suggesting that these earnings clues could become significant trading directions in the market [1][12] - For stocks reporting earnings in early January, the optimal performance is achieved through growth and momentum screening without further industry filtering [1][14] - Stocks reporting in mid-January show optimal performance when subjected to growth and momentum screening, along with growth improvement screening, without additional industry filtering [1][17] - For late January earnings reports, the best performance is obtained through growth and momentum screening, relative high growth, and industry screening [1][14] - In early February, stocks that report earnings show optimal performance when subjected to growth and momentum screening, relative high growth, and industry screening, although the number of candidates is relatively scarce [1][14] - Stocks reporting in mid-February are limited in number, and while some may perform well, they may not provide strong reference value [2][1] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown a strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points, and trading volume increasing from 2.07 trillion to 3.15 trillion [3][4] - The report highlights that the defense and military industry, media, and non-ferrous metals sectors have seen significant weekly gains, with respective increases of 13.63%, 13.1%, and 8.56% [4][3] - The report notes that the global equity markets have generally risen, with Asian markets leading the gains, particularly the KOSPI, which increased by 8.83% [5][4] - Commodity prices have risen across the board, with Brent crude oil, London gold, and LME copper showing increases of 4.09%, 2.89%, and 4.71% respectively [8][4] - The report indicates that the market's risk appetite is increasing, as reflected by the A-share equity risk premium (ERP) decreasing to 2.43% [3][4]

Inflation Data - The US December 2025 CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching expectations and previous values[2] - The core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.7%[2] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations, while the core CPI rose by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI announcement, major asset prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices down by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.8% respectively[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield remained stable at 4.18%, while the US dollar index rose by 0.3% to 99.2[3] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remained largely unchanged, with a near 0% probability for January and less than 30% for March[3] - The market anticipates approximately 2.1 rate cuts throughout 2026[3] Federal Reserve Leadership Uncertainty - Recent developments in the nomination of the new Fed chair have created uncertainty, with close probabilities for candidates Waller and Hassett[4] - Current chair Powell faces criminal charges, leading to discontent among Republican senators, which may impact the nomination process[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company expects a revenue increase of 31.07% to 33.34% year-on-year for 2025, projecting total revenue between 20.76 billion to 21.12 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 30.46% to 37.97%, with estimates ranging from 4.34 billion to 4.59 billion yuan [1] - The company continues to focus on "sales-driven operations" and is advancing its national strategy through refined channel management, enhancing channel operation capabilities, and increasing product exposure to drive terminal sales. It aims to solidify its two main product lines while exploring multi-category development to foster new growth points [2] - The functional beverage sector is identified as the fastest-growing sub-sector within the beverage industry, with significant market potential. The company is expected to leverage its product cost-effectiveness and digital advantages to strengthen its leading position [2] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 20.972 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 32.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 4.416 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 32.7% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 8.49 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32.1 [4] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 41.1% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 12.343 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 3.02% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.064 billion yuan, down 13.73% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company plans to implement a special dividend of 0.50 yuan per share, totaling 129.5 million yuan, reflecting confidence in sustainable development [4]. - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.065 billion yuan, 2.315 billion yuan, and 2.509 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.8, 7.9, and 7.2 [4]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved coal production of 5.08 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% but an increase of 7.0% quarter-on-quarter. The sales volume of commercial coal was 5.22 million tons, up 2.7% year-on-year and 3.8% quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The average selling price of coal in Q4 2025 was 558 yuan per ton, down 4.1% year-on-year but up 8.8% quarter-on-quarter. The comprehensive cost per ton was 310 yuan, down 7.9% year-on-year and 5.5% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a gross profit of 248 yuan per ton, up 1.1% year-on-year and 34.0% quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The company's total assets were reported at 47.763 billion yuan for 2025, with a total liability of 28.561 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 59.8% [11]. Future Projections - The company expects revenue growth rates of -3.0% for 2025, 20.3% for 2026, and 22.0% for 2027 [10]. - The report indicates that the company has a total resource reserve of 10.16 billion tons, which accounts for approximately 40% of the total resource amount of the four major coal enterprises in Anhui Province [9].