Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the near term [5]. Core Insights - The founder, Zhang Yong, has resumed the role of CEO, bringing back leadership with extensive experience, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and strategic direction [1][2]. - The company is implementing the "Red Pomegranate Plan," focusing on multi-brand and multi-category development to adapt to the challenging hot pot industry environment, where the number of hot pot restaurants has decreased significantly [2][3]. - Financial projections estimate revenues of 438 billion, 464 billion, and 508 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 42.3 billion, 47.4 billion, and 53.9 billion yuan for the same years [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 41,453 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.6%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 42,755 million yuan, showing a modest growth of 3.1% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is 4,499 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 174.6%. However, a decline is projected for 2025, with net profit expected to drop to 4,231 million yuan [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is 0.81 yuan, with projections of 0.84 yuan for 2024 and a slight decrease to 0.76 yuan for 2025 [4]. Management Changes - The recent changes in the executive team are expected to bring new perspectives and efficiencies, with the new directors having substantial frontline operational experience [2]. - The board's diversity in age and experience is anticipated to contribute positively to the company's strategic initiatives [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Xining Special Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel [9]. Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing a recovery in valuation, with absolute valuations moving from undervalued to moderately low levels, indicating potential for absolute returns [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural reforms in the capital market, which are expected to facilitate a shift towards value investing in the steel industry [2]. - The report highlights that the demand for steel is improving, with significant increases in apparent consumption, particularly for rebar [6][41]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 16,000 tons to 2.28 million tons, while steel production has slightly increased [15]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is at 85.5%, down 0.6 percentage points week-on-week but up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [21]. Inventory Analysis - Total steel inventory has shifted from an increase to a decrease, with a week-on-week decline of 0.6% [27]. - The social inventory of five major steel products is 8.663 million tons, up 0.1% week-on-week and up 8.7% year-on-year [29]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has improved significantly, with a week-on-week increase of 3.7% [51]. - Rebar apparent consumption reached 1.903 million tons, up 8.8% week-on-week and 2.8% year-on-year [51]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have weakened, with a decrease in the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil, while port inventories have increased [50]. - The price index for imported iron ore is reported at 106.2 USD/ton, down 2.2% week-on-week [59]. Price and Profit Analysis - Steel prices are stable with slight increases, and the gross profit margins for steel products are improving [69]. - The comprehensive steel price index is at 122.7, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.2% [70].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but suggests focusing on policy themes and quality undervalued projects for investment opportunities [4]. Core Insights - The C-REITs market is experiencing a secondary adjustment, with Shanghai supporting the issuance of REITs for consumer infrastructure [1][12]. - The overall performance of the C-REITs market is mixed, with ecological and consumer infrastructure sectors performing well, while energy and transportation infrastructure sectors are experiencing pullbacks [11]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies in stimulating the service sector and consumer spending, which may positively impact the REITs market [2][12]. Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index decreased by 0.36% this week, closing at 790.2 points, while the total return index closed at 1025.3 points [1][9]. - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has increased by 1.53% [1][9]. C-REITs Secondary Market Performance - The total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 222.47 billion yuan, with an average market value of about 2.9 billion yuan per REIT [11]. - Among the listed REITs, 29 increased in value while 49 decreased, with an average weekly decline of 0.3% [11]. REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with the top three being Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (10.9%), Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT (9.6%), and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT (8.5%) [3]. - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio ranges from 0.7 to 1.8, with the highest being Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT and E Fund Wumei Consumer REIT, both at 1.8 [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests three main investment strategies: 1. Focus on policy-driven themes and quality undervalued projects, particularly in high-energy cities and professional operations [4]. 2. Consider the timing for investing in low-cycle assets like affordable housing, which have already been recognized by the market [4]. 3. Monitor the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances, particularly those with ample asset reserves and quality projects [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the logistics and transportation sector, including SF Holding and Jitu Express [6]. Core Insights - The strategic alliance between Jitu Express and SF Holding aims to enhance cross-border logistics and network expansion, leveraging each company's strengths for better collaboration and market reach [1][3]. - The oil shipping market is experiencing a rise in freight rates due to geopolitical risks and optimistic sentiment among shipowners, with a focus on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [2][12]. - The express delivery sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected 8% increase in business volume in 2026, driven by overseas e-commerce growth and the strategic partnership between Jitu and SF [3][17]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index fell by 0.94% in the week of January 12-16, 2026, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.49 percentage points [1][18]. - The top-performing segments included shipping, public transport, and express delivery, with respective gains of 1.51%, 1.42%, and 0.93% [18]. Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from low supply growth and recovering demand, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [11][26]. Shipping and Ports - VLCC freight rates have significantly increased due to concentrated shipments from the Middle East and West Africa, with rates reaching $99,627 per day [2][12]. - The dry bulk shipping market is facing a decline in rates, particularly for Cape-sized vessels, due to slow recovery in demand [13][14]. Logistics - The express delivery sector is highlighted with two main investment themes: international expansion through the Jitu and SF partnership and the internal competition dynamics among leading express companies [3][17]. - The express delivery business volume is projected to grow by approximately 8% in 2026, despite a slowdown in growth rates due to market saturation and price increases [17].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the power equipment industry, particularly in the renewable energy sector, with significant investments and technological advancements expected to drive growth [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the State Grid's investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [2]. - The report emphasizes the stability in polysilicon prices and the continuous rise in battery component prices, with N-type battery prices increasing to 0.40 yuan per watt [15][16]. - The report identifies three key areas of focus: supply-side reform leading to price increases in the industry chain, long-term growth opportunities from new technologies, and industrialization opportunities from perovskite GW-level layouts [16]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation 1.1 Photovoltaics - Polysilicon prices remain stable, while battery component prices are on the rise, with N-type battery prices reaching an average of 0.40 yuan per watt [15]. - The report notes that leading component companies are responding to industry self-discipline by raising component prices, with distributed sales prices reaching 0.72 yuan per watt [15][16]. - Key companies to watch include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, and Trina Solar [16]. 1.2 Wind Power & Grid - The UK AR7 offshore wind auction results exceeded expectations, with a total scale of approximately 8.4GW, validating the upward trend in European offshore wind [17]. - The State Grid's investment is expected to enhance transmission capacity significantly, addressing bottlenecks in renewable energy delivery [18]. - Companies to focus on include Goldwind, Yunda Wind Power, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Energy [18]. 1.3 Hydrogen & Energy Storage - By 2025, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles in China are projected to reach 7,797 units, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase [20]. - The report anticipates that new energy storage installations will reach 58.6GW/175.3GWh by 2025, with significant growth expected in the energy storage sector [21]. - Key players in the hydrogen sector include Shuangliang Energy, Huadian Heavy Industries, and Shenghui Technology [20]. 2. New Energy Vehicles - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction, with several automakers making progress towards mass production by 2026 [29]. - Companies such as BYD, Changan Automobile, and Chery are expected to achieve significant milestones in solid-state battery technology [29]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Xiamen Tungsten, Hailiang Co., and Nanjing Advanced Lithium Battery [29]. 3. Industry Trends - The report notes a 0.4% increase in the new energy equipment sector from January 12 to January 16, 2026, with a cumulative increase of 5.3% since the beginning of the year [12]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a 3.52% increase, while the wind power equipment sector experienced a decline of 1.28% during the same period [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kaishan Holdings [4][7]. Core Insights - The demand for geothermal energy in the U.S. is expected to rise due to the increasing electricity needs of data centers, particularly driven by major tech companies like Meta and Google [2][15]. - The global geothermal installed capacity is approximately 16.5 GW, with the U.S. accounting for 3.9 GW, representing about 24% of the global total. The potential for geothermal energy is estimated to be around 162 GW, nearly ten times the current installed capacity [11][15]. - The price of geothermal electricity for AI data centers is projected to increase to $100/MWh, reflecting a growth of over 45% compared to 2024 [21][21]. Summary by Sections Global Geothermal Overview - Global geothermal installed capacity stands at 16.5 GW, with the U.S. contributing 3.9 GW. The potential geothermal capacity is estimated at 162 GW, indicating significant growth opportunities [11][15]. U.S. Geothermal Demand - The demand for geothermal energy is being driven by the increasing electricity requirements of data centers, with a notable shift towards geothermal solutions by major tech firms [15][16]. - Companies like Meta and Google have signed agreements for substantial geothermal power purchases, indicating a trend towards renewable energy sources for data center operations [16][18]. Price Trends - The purchase price for geothermal energy is expected to rise significantly, with current agreements indicating a price of $100/MWh, which is a substantial increase from previous years [21][21]. - Kaishan Holdings has several geothermal projects in the U.S. that are expected to generate significant revenue based on the new pricing structure [3][21].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies in the optical communication sector, specifically highlighting the "Four Little Dragons 3.0" [10]. Core Insights - The investment logic in optical communication is shifting from leading companies to high-resilience, high-barrier, or core-positioned quality targets as the global AI computing competition intensifies [1][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with clear technological positioning and performance delivery capabilities in the emerging "Four Little Dragons 3.0" [1][19]. Summary by Sections Historical Perspective: Growth Logic of "Four Little Dragons" - In 2019, the report recommended the first generation of "Four Little Dragons" including Taicheng Light, New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, and Quartz Co. [2][20]. - By the end of 2024, the second generation included Taicheng Light, Dekeli, Yuanjie Technology, and Tengjing Technology, benefiting from AIDC construction and optical module iteration [2][20]. Future Outlook: Rise of "Four Little Dragons 3.0" - The report suggests focusing on the new generation of "Four Little Dragons 3.0": Dongtianwei, Kecuan Technology, Huilv Ecology, and Zhishang Technology, as silicon photonics technology penetration increases [3][21]. - Dongtianwei is positioned in the upstream core components of optical communication, with a complete product matrix and proactive capacity expansion [21]. - Kecuan Technology benefits from the continuous penetration of silicon photonics, having launched its first 400G/800G high-speed optical module production line [21]. - Zhishang Technology is expected to benefit from the implementation of CPO, producing high-density optical connection solutions [22]. - Huilv Ecology is expanding into the high-speed optical module sector through acquisitions, establishing a comprehensive product matrix from 10G to 1.6T [24]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies in the optical communication sector such as Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, Taicheng Light, and Tengjing Technology, among others [8][13]. - It also highlights the importance of companies involved in copper links, computing equipment, liquid cooling, edge computing platforms, and satellite communication [8][13]. Market Performance - The communication sector has shown strong performance, with the optical communication index rising by 2.6% and the IoT sector outperforming with a 4.8% increase [16][18].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the liquor and frozen food sectors, particularly highlighting the upcoming Spring Festival as a catalyst for sales growth in the liquor industry [1][2]. Core Insights - The liquor market is expected to see improved sales performance as the Spring Festival approaches, with Moutai leading the way. The report indicates that Moutai's pricing strategy and sales performance are likely to drive industry-wide improvements [1][2]. - The frozen food sector is experiencing a recovery, with demand rebounding and price competition easing. Leading companies in this sector are expected to benefit significantly from this trend [2]. - The snack food segment is also showing signs of recovery, with companies that faced challenges in 2025 beginning to emerge from their operational lows. The upcoming Spring Festival is anticipated to boost inventory levels and sales [2]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The report indicates that as the Spring Festival approaches, channel collections are progressing normally, and sales are expected to improve slightly despite year-on-year pressure. Moutai is expected to perform strongly, with its pricing strategy showing a stabilizing effect [2]. - The report emphasizes that liquor companies are prioritizing volume over price and focusing on quality to gain market share [2]. Frozen Food Sector - The frozen food market is currently in its peak sales season, with demand showing a month-on-month recovery. The report notes that leading companies are likely to see revenue growth due to a low base effect and improved profit margins [2]. Snack Food Sector - Companies in the snack food sector that faced challenges in 2025 are now gradually recovering. The report highlights that the upcoming Spring Festival will significantly enhance inventory levels and sales opportunities for these companies [2]. Specific Companies - Moutai, Guizhou Moutai, and other leading liquor brands are recommended for short-term investment due to their strong performance during the Spring Festival [1]. - Companies like Sanquan Foods and others are noted for their innovative product launches and channel strategies, which are expected to drive revenue growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on companies like TSMC and others involved in AI and advanced manufacturing processes [6][30]. Core Insights - TSMC's FY25Q4 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for advanced processes, with revenue reaching $33.73 billion, a 25.5% year-over-year increase [10][11]. - The company anticipates continued robust growth in AI demand, with a projected CAGR of mid-to-high 50% for AI accelerator business from 2024 to 2029 [16][20]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, primarily for advanced process capacity expansion [2][20]. Summary by Sections TSMC Performance - TSMC's Q4 FY25 revenue was $33.73 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3% and a net profit margin of 48.3% [10][11]. - The company expects Q1 FY26 revenue to be between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross margin of 63%-65% [10][12]. AI Demand and Market Trends - AI demand is identified as a significant growth driver, with high-performance computing (HPC) accounting for 55% of TSMC's revenue in Q4 FY25 [13][16]. - The report highlights a healthy and genuine demand for AI, with expectations for continued growth in advanced processes and AI-related applications [2][20]. Capital Expenditure and Capacity Expansion - TSMC plans to allocate 70%-80% of its 2026 capital expenditure to advanced process expansion, with careful assessment of customer needs [2][20]. - The company is expanding its manufacturing capacity in the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan to meet long-term trends in AI and HPC [17][20]. Technology Roadmap - TSMC's N2 process has entered mass production, with expectations for rapid ramp-up in 2026, alongside the introduction of N2P and A16 processes [18][20]. - The N2 family is anticipated to become a key platform with a long lifecycle, reinforcing TSMC's leadership in advanced process technology [18][20].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Volume-Price Fingerprint Model **Model Construction Idea**: Inspired by large language models, the volume-price fingerprint model treats market transaction data as a special "language" and uses self-supervised learning to extract semantic features from intraday volume-price behavior [1][8][9] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Minute-level Feature Preprocessing**: Select 32 dimensions of minute-level features, including price features (e.g., high, low, close, price position) and transaction features (e.g., turnover, order cancellation, fund flow). Standardize these features to eliminate dimensional and historical volatility effects [1][16][17] - Price feature standardization formula: $$\tilde{p}_{t,d}=\frac{p_{t,d}}{p_{\mathrm{open}}}-1$$ [16] - Transaction feature standardization formula: $${\tilde{f}}_{t,d}={\frac{f_{t,d}}{S_{d}}},\quad S_{d}={\frac{1}{N_{\mathrm{hist}}}}\sum_{i=1}^{N_{\mathrm{hist}}}\sum_{t=1}^{T}f_{t,d}^{(i)}$$ [17] 2. **Dual-task Self-supervised Learning Framework**: - **Forward Causal Prediction Task**: Predict price features causally using past transaction and price information. A triangular attention mask ensures strict causality [18][21] - **Backward Feature Reconstruction Task**: Randomly mask transaction features and reconstruct them using global sequence information [18][22] 3. **Anti-collapse Regularization**: Introduce diversity, orthogonality, and uniformity regularization terms to ensure high differentiation, low redundancy, and rich information in fingerprint vectors [1][43][44][46] - Total loss function: $${\mathcal{L}}_{\mathrm{total}}=\lambda_{f}{\mathcal{L}}_{\mathrm{forward}}+\lambda_{b}{\mathcal{L}}_{\mathrm{backward}}+{\mathcal{L}}_{\mathrm{diversity}}+{\mathcal{L}}_{\mathrm{orthogonality}}+{\mathcal{L}}_{\mathrm{uniformity}}$$ [47] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a structured representation of market dynamics, capturing semantic features beyond traditional numerical predictions [1][9][14] - **Model Name**: GRU Model with Volume-Price Fingerprint **Model Construction Idea**: Use GRU to predict future stock returns based on volume-price fingerprint features [2][50][51] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Input features include 128-dimensional volume-price fingerprint vectors and basic daily features (e.g., open, high, low, close, volume, turnover) [51][52] 2. GRU structure: Two-layer GRU + fully connected layers + LayerNorm + Relu + dropout + fully connected layers [53] 3. Training details: Batch size of 512, learning rate of 1e-4 with warmup, early stopping after 10 rounds without improvement [53][54] **Model Evaluation**: The GRU model effectively utilizes the semantic features of volume-price fingerprints for stock prediction, outperforming traditional factor-based models in certain metrics [2][50][54] - **Model Name**: Dual-stream GRU Model **Model Construction Idea**: Combine volume-price fingerprints and traditional volume-price factors using dual-stream GRU to leverage complementary information [67][68] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Separate GRU streams for volume-price fingerprints and traditional factors, followed by feature fusion through configurable weights [67][69] 2. Training details: Similar to single-stream GRU, with parallel training using different random seeds for robustness [68][69] **Model Evaluation**: The dual-stream GRU model improves prediction accuracy and stability, reducing overfitting risks associated with single data sources [68][69] Model Backtesting Results - **Volume-Price Fingerprint Model**: - Weekly RankIC Mean: 0.106 - Annualized Return (10-group long-short): 83.88% - IR: 5.41 - Weekly Win Rate: 73.87% - Max Drawdown: 11.65% [2][59][65] - **GRU Model with Volume-Price Fingerprint**: - Weekly RankIC Mean: 0.106 - Annualized Return (10-group long-short): 83.88% - IR: 5.41 - Weekly Win Rate: 73.87% - Max Drawdown: 11.65% [2][59][65] - **Dual-stream GRU Model**: - Weekly RankIC Mean: 0.109 - Annualized Return (10-group long-short): 90.89% - IR: 5.95 - Weekly Win Rate: 76.46% - Max Drawdown: 11.54% [68][74] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Volume-Price Fingerprint Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Extract semantic features from intraday volume-price behavior using self-supervised learning [1][9][14] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Generate 128-dimensional daily fingerprint vectors using the volume-price fingerprint model [1][16][18] 2. Ensure high differentiation, low redundancy, and rich information through anti-collapse regularization [43][44][46] **Factor Evaluation**: The fingerprint factor captures hidden market patterns and semantic information, complementing traditional factors [1][9][14] Factor Backtesting Results - **Volume-Price Fingerprint Factor**: - Weekly RankIC Mean: 0.106 - Annualized Return (10-group long-short): 83.88% - IR: 5.41 - Weekly Win Rate: 73.87% - Max Drawdown: 11.65% [2][59][65] - **Fusion Factor (Volume-Price Fingerprint + Traditional Factors)**: - Weekly RankIC Mean: 0.109 - Annualized Return (10-group long-short): 90.89% - IR: 5.95 - Weekly Win Rate: 76.46% - Max Drawdown: 11.54% [68][74] Index Enhancement Results - **CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio**: - Annualized Return: 11.00% - Excess Annualized Return: 7.12% - Tracking Error: 1.74% - IR: 4.10 - Monthly Win Rate: 86.11% - Max Drawdown: 1.85% [75][77] - **CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio**: - Annualized Return: 13.32% - Excess Annualized Return: 11.38% - Tracking Error: 3.47% - IR: 3.28 - Monthly Win Rate: 83.33% - Max Drawdown: 4.76% [78][80] - **CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio**: - Annualized Return: 13.23% - Excess Annualized Return: 14.84% - Tracking Error: 3.45% - IR: 4.30 - Monthly Win Rate: 83.33% - Max Drawdown: 2.95% [82][83]