Credit Data Summary - In April 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, significantly lower than the previous month's 3.64 trillion and the market expectation of 764.4 billion, indicating a decrease of 450 billion year-on-year[1][3][6] - New social financing (社融) reached 1.16 trillion, which is 1.22 trillion higher year-on-year but below the expected 1.26 trillion, showing a seasonal improvement[2][8] - The growth rate of outstanding social financing increased to 8.7%, up from 8.4% in the previous month, marking the highest level in nearly a year[2][12] Structural Analysis - The structure of credit has deteriorated, particularly in the residential sector, with short-term loans decreasing for two consecutive months and mortgage loans turning negative again[2][5] - Corporate short-term loans decreased by 480 billion, while medium to long-term loans saw a year-on-year decline of 1.6 trillion, indicating weak corporate financing conditions[6][7] - Government bonds were the main support for social financing, with a significant increase of 1.07 trillion year-on-year, highlighting reliance on government debt issuance[3][8] Economic Outlook - The latest tariff adjustments are expected to alleviate economic pressure in Q2, but the overall impact on exports and GDP could be a reduction of 0.5-0.7 percentage points[4][8] - The real estate market shows signs of weakness, necessitating proactive policy measures rather than reactive ones[4][5] - Monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative, with expectations for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions later in the year due to ongoing economic pressures[2][4]

Key Points - The report emphasizes the importance of "high-frequency data + discretization factor construction" for future research on price-volume factors, suggesting that this combination is crucial for obtaining incremental information with low correlation to existing factors [1][10][9] - Continuous factor construction methods are discussed, highlighting that while minute and tick data can enhance performance, their contribution at the portfolio level is limited, with only a 0.5%-0.6% increase in excess annualized returns when added to daily frequency factors [2][48][41] - Discretization methods are shown to provide significant incremental value at the portfolio level, with a specific example indicating an excess annualized return of 8.15% for a strategy using "continuous + tick discretization" factors compared to a baseline [3][48][4] - The performance of the "tick discretization" factor is analyzed, revealing a monthly IC average of 0.073 and an annualized ICIR of 2.87, indicating its effectiveness even after controlling for common style and industry influences [4][58][17] - The report outlines the construction of various factor clusters, including daily, minute, and tick factors, and their respective performances, demonstrating that minute and tick factors can enhance the overall factor performance when combined with daily factors [2][38][41] - The findings suggest that while continuous factors show strong individual performance, the addition of minute and tick factors does not significantly enhance portfolio performance, indicating a potential saturation of information from these sources [39][41][48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Group is "Increase" for the stock Hisense Home Appliances (000921.SZ) with an expected EPS growth from 2.42 in 2024A to 3.32 in 2027E, and a decreasing PE ratio from 11.30 in 2024A to 8.73 in 2027E [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - Hisense Group is undergoing a significant management overhaul, introducing new directors with backgrounds in capital operations, indicating a shift from a technology-driven approach to one focused on capital empowerment [2][10]. - The restructuring of the C-end organization aims to enhance collaboration and efficiency, with the establishment of a Consumer Business Group that integrates various marketing and operational functions [3][15]. - The acquisition of Corin Electric by Hisense Net Energy demonstrates the group's commitment to diversifying into the renewable energy sector, showcasing its operational capabilities in capital markets [4][23][30]. Summary by Sections Management Changes - Hisense Group has experienced two major leadership changes in 2022 and 2023, transitioning to a younger management team led by Chairman Jia Shaoqian, who emphasizes organizational reform and efficiency [9][10]. C-end Organization - The Consumer Business Group was formed to unify the management of Hisense's consumer electronics divisions, enhancing user operation capabilities and ensuring cohesive brand and product development [3][15][19]. B-end Business Development - Hisense Net Energy has successfully acquired a controlling stake in Corin Electric, marking a strategic move into the renewable energy sector and indicating plans for increased R&D investment to expand product offerings [4][23][30]. - Hisense Group's B-end operations encompass eight major industries, with a focus on smart energy, semiconductors, automotive electronics, and network information, reflecting a diverse business portfolio [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The acquisition of French GMD Group by the company's subsidiary DSG for 100% equity and debt restructuring is a strategic move to enhance its presence in the European market, particularly in the automotive parts sector [1] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 43.57 billion yuan in 2025, representing an 18.5% year-over-year increase [4] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 3.79 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 249.4% compared to the previous year [4] Summary by Sections Acquisition and Strategic Expansion - The company has acquired GMD Group, a leading French automotive parts contractor, for a total consideration of 100 million euros (approximately 814 million yuan) [1] - GMD Group's restructuring involves a total debt of 363 million euros, with creditors agreeing to waive the remaining unpaid principal and interest [1] Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 43.57 billion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 18.5%, 16.2%, and 14.5% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The net profit is expected to reach 3.79 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant growth trajectory in subsequent years [4] Market Dynamics and Product Development - The demand for flexible printed circuits (FPC) is anticipated to rise due to the increasing complexity of designs driven by AI applications and new product launches in the smartphone market [2] - The company is focusing on innovation to develop lighter and thinner FPCs to cater to emerging markets such as AI, AR/VR, and wearable devices [2] Automotive Sector Engagement - The company is actively supplying various components for new energy vehicles, including PCBs, battery packs, and structural parts, which are expected to enhance profitability as production capacity utilization improves [2]

Economic Indicators - The US April CPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year, below the expected 2.4%, marking the lowest level since March 2021[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, matching expectations and previous values, also the lowest since April 2021[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%[2] Tariff Impact - Recent tariff reductions have decreased the average US tariff rate from 28% to approximately 18%[5] - Bloomberg model estimates show that the impact on US GDP from tariff reductions has decreased from 3.0 percentage points to 1.5 percentage points, while the inflation impact has reduced from 1.7 percentage points to 0.9 percentage points[5] - Yale model estimates indicate a GDP impact reduction from 1.1 percentage points to 0.7 percentage points and a slight inflation impact decrease from 1.6 percentage points to 1.4 percentage points[5] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.7% and 1.6%, respectively, while the Dow Jones index fell by 0.6%[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.6 basis points to 4.47% after initially rising[4] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remain unchanged, with a projected two cuts in 2025, the first expected in September[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach due to ongoing uncertainties in tariff negotiations and economic conditions[6] - The likelihood of a rate cut in June is considered low, and expectations for a July cut should be tempered[6]

Group 1 - The core factors influencing the bond market in April were overseas factors and policy expectations, with a significant decline in the 10-year treasury yield, which dropped 18 basis points to 1.63% in the first three trading days of the month [1][9] - Credit performance in April was weaker than interest rates, with short-term credit outperforming long-term credit; the 1-year city investment bond spread decreased by 5-7 basis points, while longer-term spreads expanded [2][10] - The credit market is expected to face challenges in May, with the 3-year credit spread and the downward pressure on long-term credit being the main obstacles for the credit market's transmission [3][16] Group 2 - Seasonal trends indicate that credit bond supply typically decreases in May, while wealth management scale usually increases, providing some support for credit spreads [4][22] - The tightening of financing policies and stricter issuance reviews are expected to limit the supply of city investment bonds and industrial bonds in the short term [4][22] - The outlook for the credit market suggests that as monetary easing occurs, short-term credit rates will decline, which may restore the slope of the yield curve and provide protection for long-term rates [5][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The acquisition of French GMD Group by the company's subsidiary DSG for 100% equity and debt restructuring is a strategic move to enhance its presence in the European market, aiming to strengthen synergies and accelerate global expansion in the automotive parts sector [1] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 43.57 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting an 18.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 3.79 billion CNY, representing a substantial 249.4% growth [3][4] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing profitability through collaborations with major clients in the touch display module and LED display sectors [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 43.57 billion CNY, 50.61 billion CNY, and 57.93 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 18.5%, 16.2%, and 14.5% [4] - The expected net profit for the same years is 3.79 billion CNY, 4.79 billion CNY, and 5.80 billion CNY, with growth rates of 249.4%, 26.4%, and 21.1% [4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.22 CNY, 2.81 CNY, and 3.40 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for flexible printed circuits (FPC) driven by advancements in AI, AR/VR, and foldable screens, indicating a strong competitive advantage in the market [2] - The automotive segment is expected to see increased demand for various components, including PCBs and battery structures, particularly from new energy vehicle clients [2]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 量化点评报告 转债的配置与择时价值——五月可转债量化月报 转债的配置与择时价值。我们可以将转债个券分为偏债、平衡与偏股转债， 等权配置形成分域净值，并分别使用转债定价偏离度进行择时形成择时策 略，由策略结果可以看出： 1）平衡偏债转债风险溢价高，配置价值高但择时性价比低：平衡偏债转债 本身风险溢价较高，择时策略并未产生很明显的绩效提升，因此平衡与偏 债转债更适合弱化择时并进行长期配置，且构建因子策略进行稳定增强。 2）偏股转债风险溢价低，配置价值低但择时性价比高：偏股转债本身风险 溢价较低，夏普率与卡玛比率仅为 0.46 与 0.28。而基于估值的择时策略 可以在提升收益的同时降低风险，使得夏普率与卡玛比率分别上升至 0.87 与 0.74，因此偏股转债可以通过择时指标进行波段操作从而提升收益降低 风险。 转债的选债与择时。我们可以将选债与偏股择时按照如下方式结合： 1）选债部分：对于平衡与偏债转债我们使用低估+正股动量因子进行选债 增强，偏股转债我们使用低估因子进行选债增强。 2）择时部分：我们将平衡与偏债转债相对于中证 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 量化点评报告 转债的配置与择时价值——五月可转债量化月报 转债的配置与择时价值。我们可以将转债个券分为偏债、平衡与偏股转债， 等权配置形成分域净值，并分别使用转债定价偏离度进行择时形成择时策 略，由策略结果可以看出： 1）平衡偏债转债风险溢价高，配置价值高但择时性价比低：平衡偏债转债 本身风险溢价较高，择时策略并未产生很明显的绩效提升，因此平衡与偏 债转债更适合弱化择时并进行长期配置，且构建因子策略进行稳定增强。 2）偏股转债风险溢价低，配置价值低但择时性价比高：偏股转债本身风险 溢价较低，夏普率与卡玛比率仅为 0.46 与 0.28。而基于估值的择时策略 可以在提升收益的同时降低风险，使得夏普率与卡玛比率分别上升至 0.87 与 0.74，因此偏股转债可以通过择时指标进行波段操作从而提升收益降低 风险。 转债的选债与择时。我们可以将选债与偏股择时按照如下方式结合： 1）选债部分：对于平衡与偏债转债我们使用低估+正股动量因子进行选债 增强，偏股转债我们使用低估因子进行选债增强。 2）择时部分：我们将平衡与偏债转债相对于中证 ...

今日概览 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 05 14 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 "东升"再强化 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】"东升"再强化—中美经贸会谈大超预期的 4 点理解—— 20250513 【金融工程】转债的配置与择时价值——五月可转债量化月报—— 20250513 【通信】仕佳光子（688313.SH）-AI 驱动光通信技术升级，AWG、MPO 打开成长空间——20250513 【电子】国科微（300672.SZ）-编解码芯片领军者，AI 布局逐步完善— —20250513 ◼ 研究视点 【计算机】纳思达（002180.SZ）-一季报业绩符合预期，自主打印领军 拐点加速验证——20250513 【汽车】多利科技（001311.SZ）-业绩符合预期，开拓新业务挖掘发展 潜力——20250513 【汽车】模塑科技（000700.SZ）-2025Q1 扣非业绩同环比高增，盈利能 力修复——20250513 作者 | 分析师 杨润思 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680520030005 | | | | | 邮箱：yangru ...