证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 固定收益点评 整体来看，4 月通胀数据反映内需仍然较弱，观察一揽子政策落地效果。 4 月 CPI 同比降幅企稳，环比有所上涨，PPI 降幅扩大，反映整体通胀 仍较弱。4 月份受国际因素影响叠加国内季节性因素，工业品价格走弱 明显。中美贸易谈判在 4 月未有显著进展，贸易形势不确定性仍在。5 月 7 日国新办发布会推出包括降准降息在内的一揽子货币政策措施， 以稳定内需、应对经济环境不确定性，观察一揽子政策的落地效果。 弱物价，需继续宽松 CPI 同比降幅不变、环比由降转涨，核心 CPI 涨幅不变，PPI 同比降幅 扩大。4 月 CPI 同比下降 0.1%，与上月持平，连续三个月负增长，其 中翘尾和新涨价分别影响-0.3%和 0.2%；环比上涨 0.1%，较上月增 速增加 0.5 个百分点，由降转涨。核心 CPI 同比增长 0.5%，与上月持 平，环比增长 0.2%，较上月扩大 0.2%。PPI 同比和环比分别下降 2.7% 和 0.4%，同比降幅均较上约扩大 0.2 个百分点，其中翘尾和新涨价的 影响分别为-1.59%和 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 煤炭开采 2025Q1 全球海运煤炭贸易量同比下降 6.7% 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2025 年 5 月 9 日，原油价格方面，布伦特 原油期货结算价为 63.91 美元/桶，较上周上涨 2.62 美元/桶（+4.27%）； WTI 原油期货结算价为 61.02 美元/桶，较上周上涨 2.73 美元/桶 （+4.68%）。天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 12.00 美元/百 万英热，较上周上涨 0.65 美元/百万英热（+5.7%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期 货结算价 34.75 欧元/兆瓦时，较上周上涨 1.70 欧元/兆瓦时（+5.1%）； 美国 HH 天然气期货结算价为 3.80 美元/百万英热，较上周上涨 0.17 美元 /百万英热（+4.5%）。煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到岸 价 97.1 美元/吨，较上周上涨 1.8 美元/吨（+1.9%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤炭 （6000K）FOB 价 98.9 美元/吨，较上周上涨 0.9 美元/吨（+0.9%）；IPE 南非理查兹 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with a 55% year-on-year increase in 2024, reaching 2.4 billion yuan, and a 28% increase in net profit to 180 million yuan. In Q1 2025, revenue surged by 65% year-on-year to 800 million yuan, with net profit increasing by 81% to 80 million yuan [1][3] - The company is actively expanding its overseas production capabilities, with operational factories in the US and Mexico, contributing to revenue growth and new customer acquisition. The US factory has achieved profitability, while the Mexican factory is in the ramp-up phase [2] - The company is focusing on emerging market applications and has developed a range of connector products for various industries, including telecommunications and electric vehicles, positioning itself as a leader in the industry [2] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 2.4 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.99 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24%. Net profit is expected to rise from 261 million yuan in 2025 to 374 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 32, 26, and 22 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.7%, with a net profit margin of 10.0%, reflecting improvements in profitability despite challenges from commodity price fluctuations and increased capacity investments [1][2]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 10 年 月 日 医药生物 【周专题&周观点】【总第 396 期】产线齐全、技术领先，国产血净龙头绘新篇 一、当周（5.6-5.9）回顾与周专题： 当周（5.6-5.9）申万医药指数环比+1.01%，跑输创业板指数，跑输沪深 300 指数。本 周周报，我们梳理了威高血净招股书，供各位投资者参考。 二、近期复盘： 1、当周表现：本周市场（节后交易四天）在过节期间多个利好刺激下，高开后连续震 荡。医药指数这边，走势类似。结构上看，脑机接口、外骨骼机器人、部分减肥链、少 量低位创新药有相对亮眼表现，其他都是个股逻辑为主，前期强势的大部分创新药标的 有所回调。 2、原因分析：本周市场高开主要受五一节期间多个利好刺激带动。节后，前期调整了 一段时间的科技风格资产回归，创新药资金被分流（近期创新药和其他科技资产"跷跷 板"），叠加美国那边部分信息扰动（关税、药价、FDA 等），大部分创新药标的在本周 有所回调。因为科技风格资产反弹，受市场风格映射影响，脑机接口、外骨骼机器人等， 表现亮眼。部分减肥链偏主题标的表现较好，其他表现好的都是个股逻辑，虽然这周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant recovery in performance in Q1 2025, with a projected revenue growth of 29% [2] - The company has signed new contracts worth 2.053 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 93%, indicating strong future revenue growth potential [4] - The establishment of a subsidiary focused on space-grade perovskite solar power generation is anticipated to create new growth opportunities in the commercial aerospace sector [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, but a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders to 90 million yuan, down 47% [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 30%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to high initial costs associated with the Dalian Airport project [3] - The company’s operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 80 million yuan in 2024, which is a significant increase in cash outflow compared to the previous year [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 259 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 180% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated to be 1.05 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times [6] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company’s business is concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, benefiting from increased infrastructure demand driven by urbanization and industrialization [4] - The company has established a complete supply chain for aerospace quality, successfully supporting the launch of 15 satellites and over 40 satellite power systems [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W19：一揽子金融政策发布，降准降息落地，地产支持政策稳步推进 一揽子金融政策发布，降准降息落地，地产支持政策稳步推进。5 月 7 日， 国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关 情况。本次发布会贯彻落实此前政治局会议精神，央行行长潘功胜表示， 进一步实施好适度宽松的货币政策，推出一揽子货币政策措施，其中，1、 降低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿 元。2、下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，预计将带动 LPR 同步下行约 0.1 个 百分点。3、降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点，五年期以上首 套房利率由 2.85%降至 2.6%。降准降息如我们此前提示，未来全国新发 房贷利率有望下破 3%关口。此外，地产支持政策稳步推进，金融监管总 局李云泽提到，目前，商业银行审批通过的"白名单"贷款增至 6.7 万亿 元，支持了 1600 多万套住宅的建设和交付。下一步，将加快完善与房地 产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度，包括房地产开发、个人住 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 10 年 月 日 国轩高科（002074.SZ） 业绩符合预期，加速推进电池新技术及海外基地布局 国轩高科发布 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报。2024 年公司实现营收 353.9 亿元，同增 12.0%；归母净利 12.1 亿元，同增 28.6%；扣非归 母净利 2.6 亿元，同增 125.9%。2024 年公司销售毛利率/销售净利率 为 18.0%/3.3%，同增 1.1/0.2pct。2025Q1，公司实现营收 90.6 亿元， 同增 20.6%；归母净利 1.0 亿元，同增 45.6%；扣非归母净利 0.1 亿 元，同增 37.6%。Q1 销售毛利率/销售净利率为 18.3%/1.1%，同增 0.4/0.6pct。此外，公司发布并实施完成 2024 年度利润分配方案，向 全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 1 元（含税）。 加速推进电池新技术及海外基地布局。1）在动力电池领域，公司推出 了 G 刻、星晨等多款高性能电池产品，并发布了第一代全固态"金石" 电池，实现固态电池技术创新。面向商用车市场，公司推出了 G 行品 牌系列 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 10 年 月 日 房地产 C-REITs 周报——二级持续体现投资价值，保障房、消费较优 REITs 指数表现 本周中证 REITs 全收益指数上涨 0.39%。截至 5.9，本周（5.3-5.9， 下同）中证 REITs(收盘)指数上涨 0.28%，收于 848.4 点；中证 REITs 全收益指数上涨 0.39%，收于 1062.1 点。本周沪深 300/恒生/中债十 年期国债/房地产(申万)/恒生地产建筑业/高速公路(申万)指数分别上 涨 2.00%/上涨 1.61%/上涨 0.11%/上涨 0.41%/上涨 1.04%/上涨 1.79%。其中沪深 300 本周涨幅最高，REITs 全收益指数排行第 6。 本年中证 REITs 全收益指数涨幅为 9.73%。截至 5.9，本年中证 REITs(收盘)指数涨幅为7.45%，中证REITs全收益指数涨幅为9.73%。 本年沪深 300/恒生/中债十年期国债/房地产(申万)/恒生地产建筑业/ 高速公路(申万)指数分别下跌 2.26%/上涨 14.00%/上涨 0.23%/下跌 6.98%/上 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W19：一揽子金融政策发布，降准降息落地，地产支持政策稳步推进 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为 0.4%，落后沪深 300 指 数 1.59 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 31 名。 本周网签数据依然有五一假期的影响，样本城市新房二手房成交量能低位 徘徊。新房：本周 30 个城市新房成交面积为 150.1 万平方米，环比下降 29.6%，同比下降 1.8%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为 42.6 万 方，环比-35.3%，同比+17.1%；样本二线城市为 68.5 万方，环比-29.4%， 同比-14.9%；样本三线城市为 39.0 万方，环比-22.5%，同比+8.5%。 二手房：本周 14 个样本城市二手房成交面积合计 158.0 万方，环比下降 12.6%，同比下降 8.0%。其中样本一线城市的本周二手房成交面积为 59.2 万方，环比-22.5%；样本二线城市为 81.4 万方，环比 5.9%；样本 三线城市为 17.4 万方，环比-36.8%。 信用债：本周共发行房 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Rotation Model Based on Prosperity-Trend-Crowdedness Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates three dimensions: industry prosperity, market trend, and crowdedness, aiming to identify industries with high prosperity, strong trends, and low crowdedness for rotation strategies [1][3][8] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Prosperity Dimension**: Evaluate industries based on fundamental indicators such as earnings growth and analyst expectations 2. **Trend Dimension**: Identify industries with strong upward momentum using technical indicators 3. **Crowdedness Dimension**: Measure the level of market participation and sentiment to avoid over-crowded industries 4. Combine these three dimensions into a scoring framework to rank industries and allocate weights accordingly [1][8][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown stable performance with consistent excess returns over benchmarks, making it a reliable tool for industry rotation [9] 2. Model Name: Industry Distress Reversal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on industries in distress or recovering from past distress, with potential for long-term improvement in fundamentals and inventory cycles [17][99] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Exclude industries with inventory and capital expenditure historical percentiles >80% 2. Exclude industries with gross margin and free cash flow historical percentiles <20% 3. Identify industries with improving inventory conditions and favorable macroeconomic signals 4. Allocate weights to industries meeting these criteria [17][99] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures opportunities in recovering industries, delivering strong absolute and relative returns in backtests [99] 3. Model Name: PB-ROE Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Select stocks within industries based on valuation and profitability metrics, emphasizing high valuation-to-profitability efficiency [13][107] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use the industry allocation weights from the rotation model 2. Rank stocks within each industry by PB-ROE scores 3. Select the top 40% of stocks based on these scores 4. Weight selected stocks by their market capitalization and PB-ROE scores [13][107] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated strong performance in both absolute and relative terms, with high information ratios and low drawdowns [107] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Rotation Model - Annualized excess return: 16.3% - Information ratio (IR): 1.74 - Maximum drawdown: -7.4% - Monthly win rate: 71% - 2023 excess return: 9.3% - 2024 excess return: 5.0% - 2025 YTD (as of April) excess return: 2.2% [9][96][97] 2. Industry Distress Reversal Model - Annualized excess return: 16.5% - Information ratio (IR): 1.76 - Maximum drawdown: -8.7% - 2023 absolute return: 13.0%, excess return: 16.6% - 2024 absolute return: 25.6%, excess return: 14.5% - 2025 YTD (as of April) excess return: 1.7% [99][101][102] 3. PB-ROE Stock Selection Model - Annualized excess return: 22.9% - Information ratio (IR): 2.02 - Maximum drawdown: -8.0% - Monthly win rate: 74% - 2022 excess return: 10.2% - 2023 excess return: 10.4% - 2024 absolute return: 14.6%, excess return: 4.6% - 2025 YTD (as of April) excess return: 1.0% [13][107][109] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Crowdedness - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the level of market participation and sentiment to identify over-crowded industries [1][8] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use trading volume, fund flows, and sentiment indicators to quantify crowdedness 2. Normalize the data and rank industries by crowdedness scores 3. Avoid industries with high crowdedness scores in allocation [1][8] 2. Factor Name: Inventory Cycle - **Factor Construction Idea**: Incorporates inventory levels and related metrics to identify industries with favorable inventory conditions [17][18] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate inventory-to-sales ratios and historical percentiles 2. Identify industries with low inventory pressure and signs of restocking 3. Combine with macroeconomic indicators for final scoring [17][18] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Crowdedness Factor - Integrated into the industry rotation model, contributing to stable excess returns and risk control [1][8][9] 2. Inventory Cycle Factor - Integrated into the distress reversal model, enhancing its ability to capture recovery opportunities in industries [17][18][99]