Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The report highlights a decline in both fiscal revenue and expenditure in November, with general fiscal revenue growth turning negative and both tax and non-tax revenue growth slowing down [3] - Cumulative fiscal expenditure from January to November was 83.7%, significantly below the seasonal average of 86.7% over the past three years, indicating a slower spending pace [3] - If December's expenditure growth can rise to 10%, the total fiscal revenue for the year could exceed expenditure by approximately 630 billion, potentially creating a surplus to support 2026 spending [3] Group 2: Employment and Monetary Policy - The U.S. non-farm employment data for October and November showed significant volatility, primarily due to government sector disruptions, while the private sector remained stable [4] - The unemployment rate slightly increased, indicating a moderate slowdown in overall employment, yet the resilience of the job market remains strong [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remain unchanged, with a 24% probability of a rate cut in January 2026, suggesting a critical period for monetary policy decisions [4] Group 3: 3D Printing Industry Overview - The global 3D printing market is projected to reach $21.9 billion in 2024, with printers and services accounting for 74% and materials for 20% of the market [7] - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is expected to grow from $4.1 billion in 2024 to $16.9 billion by 2029, with Chinese manufacturers dominating 94% of the global market [8] - Industrial-grade 3D printing is heavily utilized in the aerospace sector, with significant revenue contributions from companies like Plutotech and Huazhu High-Tech, indicating a robust growth trajectory in commercial space endeavors [9] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in 3D Printing - The report identifies key players in the consumer-grade 3D printing market, including TuoZhu Technology and Chuangxiang Sanwei, which are expected to benefit from the industry's accelerated growth [10] - The industrial-grade 3D printing market is also highlighted, with companies like Plutotech and Huazhu High-Tech positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for advanced manufacturing solutions [10] - The report emphasizes the potential of 3D printing technology in various sectors, including electronics and aerospace, suggesting a broad range of investment opportunities [10]

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000[2] - October saw a decrease of 105,000 non-farm jobs, with August and September data revised down by 33,000[2] - The unemployment rate in November rose to 4.6%, above the expected 4.5% and the previous month's 4.4%, marking the highest level since October 2021[2] Labor Market Insights - The labor force participation rate in November was 62.5%, slightly above the expected and previous month's 62.4%[2] - Average weekly hours remained stable at 34.3 hours in November, compared to 34.2 hours in October[2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, below the expected 0.3% and down from 0.4% in October, averaging around 0.3% over the two months[2] Sector Performance - Government employment saw significant volatility, with a drop of 157,000 jobs in October, narrowing to a decrease of 5,000 in November[3] - Private sector job additions were relatively stable, with 53,000 in October and 68,000 in November, indicating resilience in the labor market despite government disruptions[3] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, major asset prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones down by 0.2% and 0.6% respectively, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.2%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3.5 basis points to 4.14%, and the dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 98.2[4] Interest Rate Outlook - The implied probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January remains around 24%, with expectations for two rate cuts throughout 2026[4] - The upcoming January meeting will be crucial, with additional employment and inflation data expected before the decision[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - 3D printing is recognized as a revolutionary technology in high-end manufacturing, with a global market projected to reach $21.9 billion in 2024, where printers and services account for 74% and materials for 20% [1][18] - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is rapidly growing, with an expected market size of $4.1 billion in 2024, increasing to $16.9 billion by 2029 [2] - The industrial-grade 3D printing sector is primarily driven by the aerospace industry, with significant revenue contributions from companies like Platinum and Huazhu [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. 3D Printing: Unlocking High-End Manufacturing - 3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing (AM), is a disruptive technology that contrasts with traditional subtractive manufacturing methods [9] - The global 3D printing market is expected to reach $21.9 billion in 2024, with a forecasted growth to over $114.5 billion by 2034 [18] - The market is dominated by printer sales and services, which make up approximately 74% of the total market [18] 2. Consumer-Grade 3D Printers: China's "Four Little Dragons" Soar - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is entering a phase of accelerated penetration, with significant contributions from Chinese manufacturers [2] - In 2024, the global shipment of consumer-grade 3D printers is estimated to be around 4.1 million units, with Chinese companies holding a 94% market share [2] - The report highlights the technological advancements that have improved efficiency and reduced costs in consumer-grade printers [2] 3. Commercial Aerospace: The Mainline of Industrial 3D Printing - The aerospace sector is identified as the core downstream market for industrial-grade 3D printers, with significant revenue shares from companies like Platinum and Huazhu [2] - The commercial aerospace market in China is projected to reach ¥2.3 trillion in 2024, with expectations of further growth [2] - 3D printing is increasingly used in the manufacturing of rocket engines, significantly reducing costs and production times [2] 4. Technology & New Consumption: 3D Printing Technology Has Great Potential - 3D printing is gradually replacing traditional CNC machining in the 3C field, offering higher precision and lower material waste [3] - The technology is also being applied in the production of liquid cooling plates, enhancing thermal performance in various applications [3] - The report identifies key players in the consumer-grade and industrial-grade 3D printing markets, highlighting their roles and market positions [3]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The main theme for the 2026 overseas market is "weak recovery + rebalancing," driven by factors such as "balance sheet repair + loose monetary policy + fiscal stimulus + AI investment wave," with a gradual economic recovery expected, albeit with weak momentum due to high interest rates and tariff impacts [2] - Different countries and industries are expected to transition from divergence to convergence, with economic, policy, and asset prices influenced by multiple factors reaching a balance point [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Strategy - The report emphasizes that the industrial wave of AI computing power and robotics is gradually being realized, supporting a high level of performance in equity markets, which underpins the high valuation of convertible bonds [3] - The supply-demand dynamics for convertible bonds are tightening, with continuous inflows into fixed income, further supporting their valuation; "pan-technology" is identified as a strategic allocation focus for equities and convertible bonds [3] - Recommended convertible bond targets include Guowei Convertible Bond, Xinfeng Convertible Bond, Weier Convertible Bond, Lianang Convertible Bond, Yiwai Convertible Bond, and Jianfan Convertible Bond [3] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - From January to November, the cumulative sales amount of new homes decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, with a total sales amount of 751.3 billion yuan, and the sales area decreased by 7.8% [6] - The report indicates that the new housing market is expected to remain under pressure in 2026, with a low performance due to the lack of significant policy changes [7] - The report suggests maintaining an "overweight" rating on real estate-related stocks, highlighting the importance of policy-driven dynamics and the potential benefits for quality real estate companies in a changing competitive landscape [7] Group 4: Steel Industry Insights - The quality of steel production statistics has declined since May, affecting the assessment of steel demand due to discrepancies between reported and actual production data [10] - The report notes that the weak reality continues to unfold against strong expectations in the steel sector, indicating challenges in demand and production regulation [10] Group 5: Company-Specific Analysis - Sutonju Chuang reported a Q3 2025 shipment of 186,000 laser radars, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with significant growth in the robotics sector [11] - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 410 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of approximately 23.9% [11] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Sutonju Chuang, projecting total revenues of 2.3 billion, 3.5 billion, and 4.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a target market value of approximately 21.14 billion yuan [14]

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 12 16 年 月 日 投资策略 中央经济工作会议点评 一、策略专题：中央经济工作会议点评 2025 年 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。 （1）如何理解五个新"必须"？ 2024 年中央经济工作会议以五个"必须"总结了对经济工作的规律性认 知，而今年的会议认为，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了 新的认识和体会，并提出了五个新"必须"。我们认为，五个新"必须"可 能是我们认知 2026 年经济工作与政策取向的重要指引。 一是"必须充分挖掘经济潜能"，指向我国具备超大规模市场和强大生产 能力的优势，应充分利用上述优势在扩内需等领域培育更多新的经济增长 点； 二是"必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举"，这与政策取向中"加大逆周 期和跨周期调节力度"等措辞相呼应，表明在提供短期政策支持时还应同 时具备长远的政策视野，增量更要提质； 三是"必须做到既'放得活'又'管得好'"，二十届三中全会关于全面深 化改革的《决定》曾提出"既'放得活'又'管得住'"，本次会议将管得 "住"改为管得"好"，表明了对全面深化改革、整治"内卷 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [6]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a divergence between strong expectations and weak realities, with production data quality declining since May 2023, impacting demand assessments [2]. - China's apparent steel consumption increased by 3.6% year-on-year from January to November, but November alone saw a decline of 3.3% [2]. - The net export of steel reached 10.218 million tons from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, driven by strong manufacturing exports [3]. - Domestic policies are shifting focus towards basic economic fundamentals, with an emphasis on proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing [4]. Summary by Sections Production and Consumption - In November 2025, crude steel production was 6.987 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, while the average daily production was 2.329 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.3% [8]. - The apparent consumption of steel in China for the first eleven months of 2025 grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with a notable decline in November [2]. Exports and Imports - Steel exports for January to November 2025 totaled 10.772 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [8]. - The import of iron ore in November was 11.054 million tons, up 8.5% year-on-year, while cumulative imports for the first eleven months increased by 1.4% [8]. Policy and Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the focus of domestic policies will increasingly center on structural adjustments, with an expectation of continued fiscal easing and reforms [4]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in undervalued companies within the steel sector, such as Huazhong Steel and Baosteel, which are expected to benefit from upcoming economic cycles [4].

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that the convertible bond market is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by strong equity market support and a tightening supply-demand structure [1][2][36] - The convertible bond market has shown a cumulative return of 17.35% in 2025, closely following the performance of the equity markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 17.54% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 24.29% [1][9] - The average return on convertible bond funds was 22.63%, which, while slightly lower than equity funds, exhibited lower volatility and better drawdown performance [1][18] Group 2 - The report identifies "pan-technology" as a strategic allocation theme for convertible bonds in the coming year, focusing on sectors such as AI, chips, and cloud security [3][36] - The supply of convertible bonds is expected to tighten further, with the total outstanding amount dropping below 600 billion, and a significant number of bonds set to mature in 2026 [2][39] - The average return on equity (ROE) for A-shares is projected to increase from 20.1% in 2024 to 27.9% in 2025, indicating a strong recovery in corporate profitability [2][36] Group 3 - The report highlights that the performance of the convertible bond market is closely linked to the equity market, with a notable correlation in trends and returns [1][21] - The average price of convertible bonds increased from 120.8 yuan at the beginning of the year to 144.3 yuan by November 21, 2025, reflecting a robust market environment [21][22] - The report suggests that the tightening supply of convertible bonds, combined with improving corporate earnings, will likely maintain high valuations in the convertible bond market [2][39]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates a "weak recovery + rebalancing" for the global economy in 2026, supported by four factors: balance sheet repair, loose monetary policy, fiscal expansion, and the AI investment wave, while constrained by high interest rates, tariff impacts, and difficulty in achieving synchronization across economies [1][19]. - The report highlights that the global economic recovery is expected to be more evident in quarter-on-quarter improvements rather than year-on-year increases, reflecting a gradual upward trend but with weak momentum [2][53]. - The analysis suggests that the economic performance of developed countries is likely to gradually recover, while emerging markets will remain relatively stable, indicating a convergence in economic performance across different regions [2][53]. Group 2 - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely only implement two rate cuts in 2026, aligning with the economic fundamentals, but there is a concern regarding the potential loss of the Fed's independence due to political influences surrounding the upcoming leadership change and midterm elections [3][55]. - It is noted that the macro environment is favorable for U.S. equities due to recovery and rate cuts, but the current valuations are at levels reminiscent of the 2000 internet bubble, which may limit upside potential [4][9]. - The report emphasizes that while U.S. Treasury yields may not decline significantly due to economic fundamentals, the change in Fed leadership and potential for unexpected rate cuts could create downward pressure on yields [4][36]. Group 3 - The report discusses the expected stabilization of the U.S. dollar due to a more balanced economic performance between the U.S. and Europe, although it is unlikely to see significant strength, with the Chinese yuan projected to appreciate slightly [4][38]. - Gold is expected to continue its upward trend, but the pace may slow due to high valuations, with a focus on the potential for industrial metals like silver and copper to outperform [4][41]. - The outlook for oil prices suggests a continuation of a weak trend due to oversupply, with Brent crude oil expected to stabilize around $60 per barrel, contingent on geopolitical factors not escalating [4][44].

Core Insights - The overall economic performance in November shows a significant decline in consumption and investment, with consumption down for six consecutive months and retail sales growth at 1.3%, the lowest in nearly three years [2] - Fixed asset investment has been negative for three consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 12% in both October and November, and real estate investment showing a record drop of 30.3% in November [2] - The weak economic indicators suggest insufficient internal demand, with low inflation and a PMI below the threshold for eight months, indicating a lack of economic momentum [2] Consumption and Investment - Consumption has decreased for six months, with retail sales growth at 1.3%, marking the lowest level in almost three years [2] - Fixed asset investment has shown a negative cumulative year-on-year growth for three months, with November's investment down 12% compared to the previous year [2] - Real estate investment has been particularly weak, with a year-on-year decline of 30.3% in November, the largest drop recorded [2] Economic Outlook - The focus is on ensuring a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026, with potential policy measures including "trade-in" programs and early fiscal allocations to stimulate consumption [2] - Anticipated policy actions may include interest rate cuts and adjustments to fiscal strategies to support economic recovery in the first quarter of 2026 [2] Market Performance - The report highlights the performance of various industries, with telecommunications and defense industries showing strong growth, while real estate and coal industries are experiencing significant declines [2] - The report indicates that the bond market is under pressure but may stabilize with upcoming policy changes and adjustments in government debt issuance [3]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in real estate sales, with both new and second-hand home sales dropping over 30% year-on-year, indicating a weak market [4][5] - Commodity prices are experiencing mixed trends, with copper prices rising strongly, while coal prices have seen a decline [4] - The automotive sector is also facing challenges, with passenger car sales in the first week of December down 32.3% year-on-year, attributed to tightened vehicle replacement subsidy policies [4] Group 2: Financial Market Performance - The A-share market is expected to transition from valuation-driven growth to earnings-driven growth in 2026, with a suggested neutral position of 80% in investment portfolios [6] - The report indicates that the overall market sentiment remains weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a slight decline of 0.34% over the week [9] - Various sectors are showing different performance trends, with defense and military industries seeing gains, while coal and steel sectors are confirming declines [9] Group 3: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - The C-REITs market is showing mixed performance, with a total market capitalization of approximately 216.81 billion yuan, and 34 REITs increasing in value while 41 decreased [33] - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in the REITs market under a low-interest-rate environment, particularly focusing on resilient assets and quality projects [33] Group 4: Coal Industry Insights - The report notes a significant increase in U.S. natural gas prices, which is expected to drive a resurgence in coal power consumption, with coal electricity generation projected to increase by 21% year-on-year in the first quarter [35][36] - Investment recommendations include companies like China Coal Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining, which are expected to benefit from the rising coal demand [36] Group 5: Banking Sector Analysis - Shanghai Bank reported a steady performance with a total operating income of 41.14 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [40] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.18%, indicating solid asset quality [41] - The report highlights the bank's focus on supporting the real economy and meeting consumer needs through targeted lending strategies [42]