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地方政府债供给及交易跟踪:寻找高换手率地方债
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-12 14:16
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The local government bond market continued to expand last week, with the local bond stock reaching 51.1 trillion yuan as of June 6, 2025 [11]. - The issuance of local government bonds last week totaled 10.9594 billion yuan, including 4.084 billion yuan of new special bonds and 3.3536 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [19]. - Since mid - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been on a continuous downward trend [37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Overview - As of June 6, 2025, the local bond stock reached 51.1 trillion yuan. New special bonds accounted for over 43% of the outstanding local bonds, and refinancing special bonds accounted for 21% [11]. - Among the special bonds with clear funding uses, the stock balances of shantytown renovation, park and new district construction, and rural revitalization were 1.96 trillion, 1.57 trillion, and 1.12 trillion yuan respectively. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects was over 200 billion yuan [11]. - As of June 6, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local bond stock, with balances of 3.4 trillion, 3.28 trillion, and 3.08 trillion yuan respectively. Other GDP - large provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, and Hubei also had stock balances above 2 trillion yuan [11]. 2. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 10.9594 billion yuan were issued, including 4.084 billion yuan of new special bonds and 3.3536 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/project revenue" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment areas for special bond funds [19]. - As of June 6, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in June had reached 5.4394 billion yuan, accounting for 25.02% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [19]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance of local bonds with a term of 7 years or less last week had a relatively high proportion, reaching 39.77%. The average coupon rates of local bonds for each major term were basically the same as those two weeks ago. The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 21.89BP, and that of 20 - year local bonds widened to 13.9BP [28]. - From a new - bond subscription perspective, the upper limit of the bid rate last week decreased slightly compared to two weeks ago, and the primary bidding sentiment improved [28]. - Last week, 6 provinces had new issuances. Tianjin had the largest new local bond issuance this month, amounting to 4.3427 billion yuan, with terms mainly concentrated in 10 - 20 years and 20 - 30 years. The terms of other provinces were mainly concentrated in 7 years or less and 7 - 10 years. Except for Tianjin, the issuance rates of other provinces were below 2% [35]. 3. Secondary Trading Characteristics - As of June 6, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.87%, and the spread with the same - term treasury bonds was 21.53BP, at the 68.4% quantile in the past 24 years. The price difference quantiles of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 76.1% and 84.3% respectively [37]. - Last week, the turnover rates of local bonds for each major term decreased. The 10 - year - plus variety had the highest weekly turnover rate, at 0.85%. Shandong, Sichuan, Guangdong, and Jiangsu had more trading volumes last week, all exceeding 100 transactions [44]. - Last week, the average trading term of local bonds was 14 years, and the average yield was 1.91% [44]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds worth 23.291 billion yuan, of which the purchase of 20 - 30 - year - plus varieties accounted for 64.2%. In addition, securities companies had a net purchase of 12.069 billion yuan, and wealth management products had a net purchase of 3.422 billion yuan [49].
江苏金租(600901):聚焦小微零售,量价双驱+三位一体风控构筑护城河
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-12 12:37
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of 7.23 RMB based on a 1.62x PB for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The overall leasing industry in China has a penetration rate of approximately 12%, significantly lower than that of developed countries, indicating substantial room for growth [12][20]. - The company benefits from a dual strategy of volume and price, achieving steady growth through a "manufacturer + regional" approach, with a receivable leasing balance expected to reach 127.3 billion RMB by the end of 2024, reflecting an 11.80% year-on-year increase [23][24]. - The company maintains a net interest margin of over 3.6%, with asset yield significantly outperforming peers, supported by strong bargaining power with small and micro clients [30][38]. - The risk control system is robust, with a non-performing loan ratio consistently below 1%, and a provision coverage ratio of 430.27%, well above regulatory requirements [45]. Industry Overview - The leasing industry is characterized by a low market penetration rate, with significant potential for growth as regulatory measures tighten and the market consolidates [20]. - Enhanced regulatory frameworks are expected to benefit high-quality companies that can adapt to compliance and risk management requirements [20]. Company Advantages - The company employs a "manufacturer + regional" dual-line strategy to achieve stable growth, leveraging a network of over 5,800 manufacturers and dealers to enhance customer acquisition and risk mitigation [25][29]. - The net interest margin remains resilient, with a downward trend in funding costs contributing to improved profitability [30][39]. - The company has established a comprehensive risk control framework, ensuring asset quality remains high and non-performing loans are kept at minimal levels [45]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 5.826 billion RMB, 6.428 billion RMB, and 7.106 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of approximately 10.4%, 10.3%, and 10.6% [3][6]. - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 3.268 billion RMB, 3.613 billion RMB, and 4.003 billion RMB, with growth rates of 11.0%, 10.6%, and 10.8% [3][6].
量化掘基系列之三十五:巴黎航展驱动下,如何把握航空航天行情?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-12 07:59
- The "National General Aviation Industry Index" and "National Aerospace Industry Index" are constructed by selecting 50 securities related to the aviation industry from listed companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Beijing Stock Exchange, with listing times exceeding 1 year, and other securities listed for over 6 months. These indices reflect the price changes of securities related to the general aviation and aerospace industries in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing exchanges[3][28][30] - The "National General Aviation Industry Index" focuses on general aviation-related fields, including aviation materials, infrastructure, aircraft manufacturing, operational services, and application scenarios. The "National Aerospace Industry Index" is limited to the aerospace sector under the National Level 3 industry classification[28][30] - The sample selection method for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" involves sorting securities by average daily market capitalization over the past six months and excluding the bottom 10% in terms of average daily trading volume. The "National Aerospace Industry Index" uses average daily free-float market capitalization and average daily trading volume for ranking and selection[28][30] - Weight distribution for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" limits individual stocks in the aircraft manufacturing sector to a maximum weight of 10%, while other sectors are capped at 2%. The "National Aerospace Industry Index" caps individual stock weights at 15%, with the top five stocks collectively limited to 60%[29][30] - As of June 5, 2025, the "National General Aviation Industry Index" covers 10 primary industries and 19 secondary industries, with 53.04% of its weight derived from the defense and military sector. The "National Aerospace Industry Index" is highly concentrated, with 96.24% of its weight from the defense and military sector, specifically 52% from the aerospace sub-sector[31][36][37] - The valuation levels of the indices are relatively low. As of June 5, 2025, the price-to-book ratios (PB) for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" and "National Aerospace Industry Index" are 2.33x and 3.29x, respectively, corresponding to the 32.80% and 52.90% percentile ranges since February 16, 2015[43][46][48] - The "National Aerospace Industry Index" demonstrates stronger expected earnings growth. From 2025 to 2027, its earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 0.38 yuan to 0.78 yuan, while the "National General Aviation Industry Index" is expected to increase from 0.43 yuan to 0.76 yuan. Similarly, the net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 195.81 billion yuan to 308.27 billion yuan for the "National Aerospace Industry Index," compared to 185.07 billion yuan to 317.63 billion yuan for the "National General Aviation Industry Index"[49][53] - The return on equity (ROE) for the indices is favorable. As of June 5, 2025, the ROE for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" and "National Aerospace Industry Index" are 3.35% and 2.82%, respectively, outperforming the "Aerospace Index" at 2.41%[54][57] - Dividend yields for the indices are relatively high. As of June 5, 2025, the dividend yields for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" and "National Aerospace Industry Index" are 0.63% and 0.73%, respectively, exceeding the "China Military Index" at 0.58%[58][61]
2025年储能中期策略:大储延续高景气度,工商储市场爆发
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-12 07:04
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the energy storage industry, expecting a significant increase in installed capacity in the coming years, particularly driven by market reforms and policy support [4][12][100]. Core Insights - The transition from a policy-driven mandatory storage model to a market-driven approach is anticipated to enhance investment returns in energy storage, leading to rapid growth in installed capacity [4][12]. - The report highlights that companies with core technological advantages, cost control capabilities, and lifecycle service advantages are likely to dominate the market as it becomes more competitive [4][12]. - The introduction of market mechanisms, such as the "mechanism electricity price" and the establishment of a comprehensive electricity spot market by the end of 2025, is expected to further stimulate the energy storage sector [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice prohibiting the requirement of energy storage for new renewable energy projects, promoting market competition [5]. - Various provincial policies are being implemented to support energy storage, including financial subsidies and compensation standards for energy storage projects [5][6]. Market Trends - In Q1 2025, the newly installed capacity of energy storage projects in China was 5.03 GW, showing a slight year-on-year decline, but a significant increase is expected as the market adapts to new policies [7][12]. - The report forecasts that China's energy storage capacity will reach 54 GW in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24% [12]. International Developments - In the U.S., the energy storage market is expected to see substantial growth, with new installations projected at 12.3 GW in 2024, driven by strong demand [16][19]. - European energy storage installations are also on the rise, with expectations of 12 GW in 2024, particularly in large-scale storage [33][34]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on companies with established advantages in the energy storage sector, such as Sungrow Power Supply, CATL, and Aters, which are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand in Europe and emerging markets [100].
交通运输产业行业研究:无人物流车:重构快递物流成本格局,落地应用迎来爆发
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-12 05:19
Investment Rating - The report recommends direct beneficiaries in the express delivery and logistics sector, specifically focusing on companies like SF Holding, Debon Logistics, and JD Logistics, while also paying attention to franchise express companies like Zhongtong Express [4]. Core Insights - The demand for unmanned logistics vehicles is significant, providing cost reduction and efficiency improvements for express logistics companies. The unmanned logistics vehicle market has vast potential, with the city distribution market being a trillion-yuan market [2][18]. - The rapid decline in the cost of unmanned logistics vehicles, driven by advancements in technology and economies of scale, has laid the foundation for large-scale commercialization. For instance, the price of the new E6 model from Jiushi has dropped to 19,800 yuan, significantly lower than traditional logistics vehicles [2][29]. - Several listed express logistics companies have already invested in unmanned logistics vehicles, which will help them reduce costs and improve efficiency. For example, SF Holding has invested in 800 unmanned vehicles, potentially increasing profits by 4.6 billion yuan if all existing vehicles are replaced [3][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Unmanned Logistics Vehicle Applications and Rapid Product Iteration - Unmanned logistics vehicles are primarily used for last-mile delivery in express logistics, with applications extending to closed-loop logistics and fresh food delivery [1][11]. - Multiple companies, including startups and established logistics firms, are offering unmanned vehicle products, with costs decreasing significantly [1][14]. 2. Significant Demand for Unmanned Logistics Vehicles - Unmanned logistics vehicles can replace city distribution capacity, with the city distribution market size reaching 1.429 trillion yuan in 2022 [18][20]. - The rapid advancement in technology and the reduction in product prices are driving demand, supported by government policies promoting the commercialization of unmanned delivery services [2][25]. 3. Listed Express Logistics Companies' Engagement in Unmanned Logistics Vehicles - SF Holding and its subsidiary have invested in unmanned vehicle manufacturers, with significant vehicle deployment planned [3][51]. - JD Logistics has initiated operations in nearly 30 cities, focusing on short-haul and grid warehouse models [3][51]. - Debon Logistics has also engaged in unmanned vehicle technology, with potential profit increases from replacing existing vehicles [3][51]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies directly benefiting from unmanned logistics vehicles, particularly SF Holding, Debon Logistics, and JD Logistics, while also monitoring franchise express companies like Zhongtong Express [4].
超长信用债探微跟踪:超长信用债重归缩量
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-11 13:55
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ultra - long credit bond market continues. Some investors prefer to extend the duration to earn excess returns as the yield of medium - and short - duration credit bonds is close to the annual low, and there is a constraint on the subsequent downward range [2][13] - The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long credit bonds has recovered, but the average issuance interest rate has fluctuated greatly. The coupon increase has promoted the recovery of the subscription sentiment, which has returned to around the 50% percentile since 2024 [3][22] - The performance of ultra - long credit bonds is stable, but the trading sentiment has cooled down in June. The trading rhythm of industrial bonds over 7 years has slowed down, and the pricing of 5 - 7 - year long bonds has become extreme. The ultra - long - duration strategy is still recommended to be cautious [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Characteristics - The ultra - long credit bond market persists. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield below 2.2% has increased to 336 compared with last week [2][13] 2. Primary Issuance Situation - Two special bonds for stable growth and expanded investment were issued in large quantities this week, with a total issuance scale of 39.5 billion, driving a significant increase in the supply of new ultra - long credit bonds. The average issuance interest rate has fluctuated greatly, and the coupon rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds has risen to 2.42%. The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long credit bonds has recovered to around the 50% percentile since 2024 [3][22] 3. Secondary Trading Performance - The performance of ultra - long credit bonds is stable. The index of AA + credit bonds over 10 years has increased by 0.36%. The trading rhythm of industrial bonds over 7 years has slowed down, with 140 fewer trading volumes compared with the previous week. Although the trading sentiment has cooled down in June, the TKN trading proportion of credit bonds over 7 years still shows a relatively high buying interest, and the deviation between trading yield and valuation has not fluctuated significantly. Public funds and wealth management have significantly reduced their increase in the scale of general credit bonds with a duration of 5 - 10 years. Insurance has become the main buyer of 15 - 30 - year bonds again, but its stability in buying long - term bonds this year is not as good as last year [4][31][42]
债市基本面高频数据跟踪:钢材转向累库:2025年6月第1周
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-11 13:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows that steel has shifted to inventory accumulation, with seasonal recovery in power plant daily consumption and mixed trends in various industries' production and demand [2][3]. - Inflation indicates that the agricultural product price index is stronger than the same period last year, with weak pig prices in CPI and a continuous rebound in oil prices in PPI [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Steel Shifts to Inventory Accumulation 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Recovery in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has a seasonal recovery. On June 10, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 736,000 tons, up 1.4% from June 3; on June 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 1.718 million tons, up 1.6% from May 29 [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate has a mild decline. On June 6, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from May 30; the capacity utilization rate was 90.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from May 30. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 95.2% on June 6, up 1.7 percentage points from May 30 [5][18]. - The tire operating rate has a second decline. On June 5, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 63.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from May 29; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 73.9%, down 4.4 percentage points from May 29. The loom operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has declined for two consecutive weeks [5][21]. 3.1.2 Demand: Steel Shifts to Inventory Accumulation - The property market sales show a continuous improvement trend month - on - month. From June 1 - 10, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 208,000 square meters, up 13.0% from the same period in May, but down compared with the same periods in previous years [5][25]. - The auto market retail is stable and strong. In June, retail sales increased by 19% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 10% year - on - year [5][29]. - Steel prices have a limited rebound. On June 10, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 0.6%, 0.8%, 0.6%, and 0.1% respectively compared with June 3. Steel has shifted to inventory accumulation, with the inventory of five major steel products reaching 935,900 tons on June 6, up 3,400 tons from May 30 [5][35]. - Cement prices have a partial rebound. On June 10, the national cement price index increased by 0.6% compared with June 3, with prices in East China and the Yangtze River region rising by 2.1% and 2.3% respectively [5][36]. - Glass prices have a slight rebound. On June 10, the active glass futures contract price was 996.0 yuan/ton, up 3.3% from June 3 [5][41]. - The container shipping freight rate index has a continuous upward trend. On June 6, the CCFI index increased by 3.3% compared with May 30, and the SCFI index increased by 8.1% [5][44]. 3.2 Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index Stronger than the Same Period Last Year 3.2.1 CPI: Weak Pig Prices - Pig prices are running weakly. On June 10, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.3 yuan/kg, down 1.4% from June 3. The month - on - month price has turned down [5][52]. - The agricultural product price index is stronger than the same period last year. On June 10, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.6% compared with June 3. Different agricultural products have different price trends [5][57]. 3.2.2 PPI: Continuous Rebound in Oil Prices - Oil prices have a continuous rebound. On June 10, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.9 and 65.0 dollars/barrel respectively, up 2.6% and 2.5% respectively from the previous week [5][60]. - Copper and aluminum prices have increased. On June 10, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices increased by 1.9% and 1.2% respectively compared with June 3. The decline in the domestic commodity index month - on - month has narrowed [5][64]. - Industrial product prices have generally weakened. Since June, most industrial product prices have shown a year - on - year decline, with the decline in coking coal and coke prices being more prominent [66].
计算机行业研究:激光雷达系列深度之五:AEBS新规催化标配预期,割草机+无人城配快速放量
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-11 11:37
Investment Rating - The report recommends key global lidar leaders such as SUTENG and Hesai in the context of the accelerating release of non-automotive lidar applications [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that lidar is not only the "eye of intelligent driving" but also a "next-generation universal sensor" that is expected to cover all broad robotic scenarios in the future [5] - The intelligent lawn mower market is witnessing significant orders, and the robovan market is rapidly scaling from 1 to 10, validating the report's logic [5] - The report highlights that the automotive lidar market is accelerating upward due to cost reduction and policy catalysis, with L3/L4 advanced intelligent driving expected to create a "value inflation engine" for vehicles [5] Summary by Sections Automotive Market - The new AEBS regulations are expected to promote the standardization of lidar in vehicles, leading to both down-market and high-end growth [7] - For L2 and below models, the AEBS regulations may push for lidar to become standard in M1 and N1 vehicle types [11] - For L3 models, high-performance lidar and multi-lidar setups are becoming essential for domestic L3 vehicles [5][24] - The L4 market is seeing significant breakthroughs with major manufacturers deploying 7-10 lidar units in their fleets [5][31] Lawn Mower Market - The trend towards 3D perception is clear, with lidar becoming a necessary sensing solution for smart lawn mowers [5] - The report estimates that the total addressable market (TAM) for lawn mower lidar could reach 6.4 billion yuan [5] - Leading lidar manufacturers are signing contracts with smart lawn mower clients, with order volumes exceeding one million units [5][7] Robovan Market - The report identifies robovans as a new market for ADAS lidar, with significant cost reductions in logistics [5] - The TAM for robovan lidar is projected to reach 40 billion yuan, indicating a substantial market opportunity [5] - Major lidar manufacturers are forming partnerships with leading robovan manufacturers, focusing on cost control and compliance with automotive-grade standards [5][31]
基金量化观察:首批科创综指增强策略ETF本周上市
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-11 09:51
- The report tracks the performance of enhanced index funds, highlighting that in the CSI 300 enhanced index fund category, the best performer last week was E Fund CSI 300 Selected Enhanced A (010736.OF), achieving an excess return of 1.14% relative to the benchmark[5][40][42] - In the CSI 500 enhanced index fund category, HuaAn CSI 500 Enhanced A (005607.OF) delivered an excess return of 0.59% last week[5][40][42] - For the CSI 1000 enhanced index fund category, E Fund CSI 1000 Quantitative Enhanced A (017094.OF) achieved an excess return of 0.84% last week[5][40][42] - In the Guozheng 2000 enhanced index fund category, Penghua Guozheng 2000 Enhanced A (017892.OF) performed the best, with an excess return of 1.04% last week[5][40][42] - Over the past year, the best performer in the CSI 300 enhanced index fund category was Anxin Quantitative Selected CSI 300 Enhanced A (003957.OF), achieving an excess return of 15.24%[41][42][43] - In the CSI 500 enhanced index fund category, ZhongOu CSI 500 Enhanced A (015453.OF) led with an excess return of 9.84% over the past year[41][42][43] - For the CSI 1000 enhanced index fund category, Dacheng CSI 1000 Enhanced A (018661.OF) achieved the highest excess return of 17.26% over the past year[41][42][43] - In the Guozheng 2000 enhanced index fund category, Huaxia Guozheng 2000 Enhanced A (019318.OF) delivered the best performance, with an excess return of 22.77% over the past year[41][42][43]
抢出口2.0缘何滞后?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-11 08:37
Group 1: Export Performance - In May, China's exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[7] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop from -21% to -34.5%[7] - The high tariff impact of 145% continued until mid-May, with a reduction to 30% announced on May 12[7] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The average tariff on Chinese goods by the U.S. is approximately 42%, with about 40% of goods facing a 39.5% tariff[10] - Around 32% of goods are subjected to a 57% tariff, while the average tariff for other regions is about 12%[10] - The tariff reduction has not significantly boosted the "export rush 2.0" effect, indicating limited recovery in U.S. demand[20] Group 3: Shipping and Demand Trends - Shipping rates to the U.S. increased significantly, with the CCFI index for the West and East U.S. routes rising by 21% and 23% respectively by June 6[14] - Container ship numbers from China to the U.S. showed a slight improvement in early June, but remained below levels seen before April[14] - U.S. import demand has been declining since April, with a drop in import growth from 31.1% in March to 2.2% in April[19]